1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: The volume here with my main man, Stucky on on Christmas. 2 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: If you're listening to this on Saturday, but we're not 3 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: recording this on Christmas. But you can find him every 4 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: week Action Network podcast Thursday Mornings comes out. Uh, you 5 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: can also find him every single week here. So Stucky, 6 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:39,200 Speaker 1: Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Happy Holidays, happy gambling, let's 7 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: find some winners. How are you doing doing well? Man? 8 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: It's just, uh, it's funny that holidays like Thanksgiving and 9 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: Christmas they're not They're not really like holiday weeks for me. 10 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: But at least Christmas this year falls on a Saturday, 11 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: like Thanksgiving on Thursday. It's like they it's still football. 12 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: I still got a prep for football. I can so 13 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: um yeah, I'll be able to. I'm gonna go up 14 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: and see some family in Philadelphia, fly out late tomorrow 15 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: afternoon and uh hopefully uh watched some winners this weekend. 16 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:11,960 Speaker 1: I looked up at the TV would have been a 17 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 1: Wednesday night, and I saw Kentucky was just beating the 18 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 1: live and piss out of was it? Western Conte the 19 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: last they crossed North Carolina last weekend, So a lot 20 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: of excitement here in Lexington over them were you at 21 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 1: the but we're at the bar on Wednesday night was 22 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: a pack. Now I can't like what I can't go 23 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 1: out on during the weekdays. Uh, during football season for 24 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: um and I, it's just like I go crazy on 25 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 1: Saturdays and then grind during the week and um, that's 26 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: your yeah, that's my day. Okay, Well you had a 27 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: good week last week. Um, you know, we we we 28 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: were scuffling a little bit, but the Colts covered, Uh, 29 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Saints under hit pretty well. We had talked 30 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 1: about a bunch of games, but I know the one 31 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: that the tease on Pittsburgh and Philly that that bad 32 00:01:55,920 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: boy hit so and one. We have a pretty interesting 33 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: slate this week. Obviously a couple of games on Saturday, 34 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: which was the case last week and then it only 35 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 1: turned out to be the one game. So you never 36 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 1: say never, but it feels pretty competent that those two 37 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: games are gonna happen. Let's start, I guess on Saturday, 38 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: which on paper is probably one of the better games 39 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 1: of the week and just has massive playoff implications. I mean, 40 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 1: the Cardinals again December falling apart man and the Colts 41 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: another season starts slow, then get hot, Uh, I like 42 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: the Colts in this spot. I just saw. You know, 43 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: if you're looking on FanDuel promo code Colin it's to 44 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: pick them. Uh. It started at minus one that the 45 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: line keeps shifting toward Indie. Uh, I know you don't 46 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 1: really love the Colts this weekend. Hit me up. Yeah, 47 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 1: I look. I mean if this line was what it was, 48 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: you know, projected at Colts to look at line for 49 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: this game before last week's results was Arizona minus four 50 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: and a half. Then obviously you have Arizona go laying 51 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 1: egg into Troit and then Indianapolis beats doing on a 52 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 1: national television So you get this huge line adjustment this 53 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: late in the year. And I'm not a huge fan 54 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: of this Arizona team, but I show value on the Signs. 55 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: A couple of things I like about this matchup. But first, 56 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: it's just a your classic by low cell high spot 57 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 1: in the NFL rare to get this late in the year. 58 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: But I think for how public both of those games 59 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: were last week, I how everyone saw the Cardinals losing. 60 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: Everyone saw, uh the Colds beat the Patriots. I mean, 61 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 1: if you look historically since two thousand three, teams coming 62 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: off a loss is a favorite that didn't cover by 63 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: at least twenty four points, which the Cardinals didn't do 64 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: hundred and six, sixty two and two against the spread. 65 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: That sixty when that team has a winning percentage over 66 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: fifty two and twenty four against the spread, that si 67 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: And you know, if it's week fourteen or later, seventeen 68 00:03:57,600 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: and four against the spread, and when that team that 69 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 1: they lost to was had a losing record the previous 70 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: week twenty five and nine against the spread, that just 71 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: shows you, you know that the nature of buying low 72 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 1: and settling high in the NFL. The Colts, I think, 73 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: do have some regression coming their way in the turnover department. 74 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: I mean, Wentz is just begging to throw picks. Um 75 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 1: if you look at some of his turnover worthy thrown 76 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 1: numbers compared to the actual amount of interceptions that he has. 77 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,359 Speaker 1: He's playing better than I expected in the preseason. But 78 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 1: there's some regression coming the turnover department. They've also been 79 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 1: very fortunate and fumble recoveries. And you know, there's a 80 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: couple of things I like about the matchup for Jonathan 81 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: Tayo was gonna get his Like Arizona is not a 82 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: great run day, especially after J. J. Watt went down. 83 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: Taylor's have a historically great year, averaging five yards per 84 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: carry and just elite numbers across the board. I could 85 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 1: go on and on, but He's gonna get his against 86 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: almost everybody. What I like about the What I like 87 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: about this this matchup is for the Arizona offense. The 88 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,479 Speaker 1: Colts get no pressure there the third lowest pressure rate, 89 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: the lowest quarterback hurry rate, so I think, and they 90 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 1: play a ton of zone on the back end. Murray, 91 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: one of the best zone winterbacks in the NFL, should 92 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: have all day to operate in the pocket to either 93 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 1: utilize his legs weight, so receivers come open against that 94 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 1: Colt zone. So I think it's a really favorable matchup 95 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: for the Arizona offense, which has just been scuffling lately 96 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: in the red zone with turnovers. But Colts defense is 97 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: bottom five in the red zone this year, so I 98 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: think this is a good bounce back spot fair zone. 99 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: I'm not high on them long term. I think the 100 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:30,679 Speaker 1: Colts are very dangerous team in the ANFC and and 101 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: can certainly make a run. They're built to to make 102 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 1: a to make a deep run in the ploffs on 103 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 1: the back of Jonathan Taylor. They're very well coached. But 104 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,919 Speaker 1: I think that this is a really good BILO spot 105 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 1: on Arizona. Probably the last time I will I will 106 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: bet on them this year. Okay, let's uh, let's go 107 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 1: to the NFC South Tampa. Just I mean, the injuries 108 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: are pretty I mean, losing Godwin, who had ninety eight 109 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 1: catches included, is one of their best players, is pretty 110 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:06,359 Speaker 1: devastating for net who's had a really good season is injured. Uh. 111 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: You know, Brady listen, we we all love respect and 112 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: hold him to the highest regard, but he's forty four 113 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 1: years old. I mean, part of the reason that he 114 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: went to that team was they were stacked and you 115 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 1: start losing. I mean, Evans kind of feels and again 116 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: there you won't mean anyone that doesn't like Mike Evans 117 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 1: the player, but he kind of has a Julio Jones 118 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: field to him right now. He just can't stay on 119 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 1: the field. He you know, even when he plays in games, 120 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: he comes out of games. Did I I don't know. 121 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not I'm not selling all my buck stock, 122 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: but I have red flagged the team, you know, I 123 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: mean their secondary has been you know, injured all season long, 124 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 1: and now they're wide receivers are all hurt um. But 125 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: the Panthers, I think I saw rule said yesterday's gonna 126 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: play two quarter cam and now that Sam Donald is 127 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: healthy enough to play. But ten points is a lot 128 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 1: for a team that just clearly a scuffle in a 129 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: little bit, and the Panthers defense can be feisty. Uh 130 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 1: that's that seems like a lot of points for a 131 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: team that's just and now depending on Antonio Brown, who 132 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: it's not like he was just suspended healthy. I mean 133 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: he was injured right he was on crutches, so I 134 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: know b A said that he's doing well, but we 135 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: haven't seen him play even before this pension a long time, 136 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: so they have a lot of question marks offensively that 137 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: I guess I'd probably take Carolina in the points, even 138 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 1: though I do not like Carolina at all. Yeah, I 139 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: did not hate this county, but it's I think it's 140 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: especially in the game with a total of forty three. 141 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: So you know, I took the Panthers here. Catching tennis 142 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 1: is basically their super Bowl, right. Disappointing year, They've lost 143 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: a bunch of games in a row now, they played 144 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: the defending champs at home. This is it for them. 145 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 1: I mean, there's there's nothing else to look forward to. 146 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: So I'm sure you get a maximum effort, you get 147 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: whatever they have in the playbook. And Brady and look, 148 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: I don't think Mike Mike Evans. I assume he's not playing. 149 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: They would be really foolish to play him. And with 150 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: a hamstring injury, Burnet probably not either. For nets out 151 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 1: you have Lavonte David, one of their best linebackers is out. 152 00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: I mean, this team is extremely banged up and he 153 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: just you just can't play Mike Evans here with a 154 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: hamstring injer You can't let that linger after you've already 155 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: lost god Win. Do you do you agree that this version, 156 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: if this version of the team played a playoff game 157 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: this week, like if this was the playoffs, they would 158 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 1: be in major trouble. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, especially if 159 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: you play a team that can generate pressure and you know, 160 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: play man and that's what Carolina does, the number one 161 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: in the league in pressure. Right so, right now, Tom 162 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: Brady's kryptonite going back to you know, the teams that 163 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: used to give them trouble in the playoffs with the 164 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: old Ravens teams when they could generate pressure with their 165 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:34,239 Speaker 1: front floor, play man on the tight man on the outside. 166 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: He used to dominate the Steelers over that same frame. 167 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: They would always play zone and that's why the States 168 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: have given him a lot of trouble. They can get 169 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: pressure with their front flour and then they could play 170 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: tight man on the outside. So now you know, you 171 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: take away, you take away from Net, you take away 172 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: God when you take away Evans. This looks like and 173 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: you saw Brady last week. It looked like the Brady 174 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: at the end of the Patriots right like when it 175 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,719 Speaker 1: was like what does Brady had left? And really just 176 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: because he had a lack of weapons on the outside. 177 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: So I think this Panthers defense, which top five in 178 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: the NFL, guarding tight ends. He really don't worry about 179 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: Gronk and then Antonio Brown if he's healthy, and you've 180 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,959 Speaker 1: got Stefan Gilmore for him, So and you're gonna be 181 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: able to generate pressure on Brady. So I think the 182 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: Bucks are going to struggle to score points, and in 183 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 1: a really low scoring game, you just have to hope 184 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 1: Carolina gets to you know, ten to thirteen. Um. But 185 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: I just think this is way too many points here, 186 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: and Brady under pressure this year has been really bad 187 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 1: and adjusted completion percentage twenty four in yards per tempt 188 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: when he's under pressure. Now a lot of the times 189 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 1: he's not, But you're playing a Panther's team that generates 190 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: pressure at the highest rate in the NFL. And yes, Brady, 191 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: off of the loss, he's dominant. He's still he's forty 192 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:50,719 Speaker 1: two and sixteen against the spread in his career off 193 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 1: a loss at but as a double digit as a 194 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: favorite of seven or more in this spot, he's only 195 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 1: eleven and twelve, So it's a different story just going 196 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: out winning the game or cover agains an underdog. I 197 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: think there's too many points in a divisional game with 198 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: a low total. And yeah, I think that this Bucks 199 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 1: team is in a lot of trouble um with their 200 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: current state injuries on defense. And now you're you know 201 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: your key weapons, that was your strick. You had one 202 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: of the best, if not the best wide receiver rooms 203 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: in the entire NFL. So it's you gotta hold your nose. 204 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: But I took the points with Carolina. Okay, uh probably 205 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: looked like one of the better games to start the season, 206 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: but then Cleveland has just you know, underwhelmed. They obviously 207 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: didn't play good the majority of the season, and then 208 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: that game on I don't even what was it, Monday 209 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: afternoon night, depending on where you live. They just had 210 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,439 Speaker 1: a COVID problem and could not overcome it. Even though 211 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 1: Nick Mollins played okay, Um actually played pretty good relative 212 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 1: to him. But Myles Garrett, I would imagine, you know, 213 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,719 Speaker 1: I haven't seen the latest on his injury update. But 214 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 1: even if he is a go, like, he's not gonna 215 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: be the shell of himself. The pas Ackers are humming. 216 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 1: I don't know. That's a seven and a half. I 217 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: get it's a lot of points. I probably would be 218 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: a stay away from me. But if I was gonna bet, 219 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 1: I think i'd have to take the Packers. I just 220 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:13,559 Speaker 1: think that Cleveland's shambles. How about you? Yeah, I took this. 221 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:15,559 Speaker 1: I took the seven and a half here reluctantly. I 222 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 1: think Garrett's gonna give it a go. How how effective 223 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 1: he is remains to be seen. He's definitely not gonna 224 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: be a You have to see if Clowney test into 225 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,679 Speaker 1: That's another big, big thing to watch because Rogers, just 226 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,439 Speaker 1: like Brady, if you can get pressure on him. He's 227 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: vulnerable right now. And and and the Packers they have 228 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: a lot of issues on offense right now because you 229 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 1: know you've got out a standing just one on the 230 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: COVID list. You just lost Billy Turner. Botr's not playing 231 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: this week. You already lost Elton Jenkins, you lost your center, 232 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:46,719 Speaker 1: Josh Myers. You're basically down the one original starter on 233 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 1: the offensive line. So so yeah, I'm hoping that either 234 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: Garrett or Clowney can go to generate pressure on Rodgers. 235 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 1: Rodgers with a clean pocket this year twenty four touchdowns, 236 00:11:55,600 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: one interception, quarterback grading of one three. Uh next ties, 237 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: I think it's they at one oh nine. So he's 238 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 1: just been completely dominant. So the Browns have to be 239 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: able to generate some pressure here. Um, but I think 240 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 1: this Packers defense has been overperforming. Now lose Kenny Clark 241 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 1: to the COVID list. The Browns should be able to 242 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,559 Speaker 1: run the ball here. And you know, in a December 243 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: game against the defense that ranks after adjusting for opponent 244 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: and schedule against the run, they're still extremely soft. That's 245 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 1: what Cleveland wants to do. Should have everyone back on offense, 246 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: off the COVID list. You should have Snefanski back as well. 247 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: And you know, I think that the Browns can control 248 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: the clock here, move the ball on the ground, and 249 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: when the Packers get a lead, they're not this team 250 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,319 Speaker 1: that blows out a lot of opponents by twenty one, 251 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,559 Speaker 1: they start to play really soft conservative the lot a 252 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 1: lot of teams in the back door. When he saw 253 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: it last week with Tyler Huntly when they were up 254 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: fourteen and they almost gave up that lead if not 255 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: for a two point conversion miss. So this is the 256 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,599 Speaker 1: Brown store they went out there going to the playoffs. 257 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: Um So, I think that, you know, the Browns getting 258 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 1: all their offensive players back, a team that wants to 259 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: run the ball against the defense that I think has 260 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: been overperforming and has shown some cracks of late. I 261 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: think seven half is too many. If this was six 262 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 1: and a half, I wouldn't take it. Um But I 263 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:17,200 Speaker 1: think that there's an opportunity for a back door here. 264 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: I think that you know, Green Bay is they've been 265 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: running pretty well in a in a number of different 266 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: departments of red zone, some turnover they I said, like 267 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: they have a little bit of regression coming. Um So, 268 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: I just think that seven half in the game I 269 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:37,959 Speaker 1: made five is too many if and look, when you 270 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 1: have to look at the body of work for the Browns, 271 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 1: you have to keep in mind that, you know, you 272 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 1: gotta throw out last week's game. They had a number 273 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: of weather games with a lot of wind at home, 274 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: their backs were hurt for a number of games. They're 275 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 1: playing with a you know, crippled mayfield, so they they've 276 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 1: had a lot of just odd games that are skewing 277 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 1: some of their metrics. This is still a team that 278 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: should have won in Kansas City, should have won on 279 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 1: the road against the Chargers us a couple of flute 280 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 1: plays late. They're in a lot of these games. You know, 281 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 1: against Baltimore, they probably should have won that game. So 282 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:08,440 Speaker 1: I'll take them with seven and a half. I'm counting 283 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: on their run game. They really get going here. Okay, 284 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 1: my bonus is gonna be I'm gonna kind of combine 285 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 1: two games because the Bills at the Patriots and the 286 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 1: Ravens at the Bengals. You know, I mean both these 287 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: two teams need to win to get in as a 288 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: wild card, right. I mean, I guess if the Ravens win, 289 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 1: they could still win the division. But the Bills, you know, 290 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: have to win this game. They're both underdogs, they're both 291 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: on the road. If you had to place a massive bet, 292 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: which road underdog are you picking out of these two teams? 293 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 1: Which I think it's fair to say when the season started. 294 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 1: You know, I don't think anyone would have looked at 295 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 1: you crazy if you had one of those two teams 296 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: at least in the a f C Championship game, right, Yeah, yeah, 297 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: I mean I would probably go with Buffalo here. There's 298 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 1: some questions on the offensive line with COVID. You want 299 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: to see if they're left tackle and left guard are 300 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: test back in because that's big for their offensive line. 301 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: But the Patriots are also dealing with some injury as well. Um, 302 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 1: I think the Bills are the better team overall. Patriots 303 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 1: just just so many fortunate results. They were playing so 304 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: many teams with injuries and weather, and um you saw 305 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 1: last week. I think a closer version of the patient 306 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: just good but not elite as some we're hinting at 307 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 1: over the past two weeks. The problem with the with 308 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: the Ravens, and look, the last time I I faded 309 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 1: the Ravens is two weeks ago. And the Browns are 310 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: minus two and a half and the Browns were up 311 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: twenty one the one by two, So maybe that happens again. 312 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 1: But the problem, the problem with the Ravens is, and 313 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: I'm a Ravens fan, is their defense, right, Alison shamples. 314 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: I mean, you have you're on the defensive line, you 315 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 1: have you know, Brandon Williams and Class Campbell might not play, 316 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: and that's huge for their run defense, but more importantly 317 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: their secondary is. I mean, you have zero starters left 318 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 1: from your original which which is the strength of the team, 319 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: and now you can Tavon Young your slot and concussion protocol, 320 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: Jimmy Smith is still banged up, and then you're down 321 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: to like seventh and eighth during corners and I mean 322 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: the Browns all they did in Cleveland, I mean they 323 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: went up. I did went up by Tony one just 324 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 1: started out fielder's p I P I p I. Rogers 325 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: did whatever he wanted. I don't see how burrow In 326 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 1: these receivers don't just carve up the raven secondary like 327 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: they did earlier this season when the Ravens were a 328 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: lot healthier with Marlon Humphrey and all pro corner and 329 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 1: if you look at some of the advanced metrics. Joe 330 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: Barrow number one in the NFL this year against man defense. 331 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: Number one in the NFL against the blitz. And that's 332 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: what the Ravens do. They blitz and they play a 333 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: lot of man on the outside. One of the reasons 334 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 1: why Burrow shredded in Baltimore is he's very good against 335 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: the blitz. He's very good against man covered. Now there's 336 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 1: a big coaching this match here, and like, what what's 337 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: hardball gonna come up with you? So don't know ifla 338 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: Mark Jackson is gonna go, But if even he goes, 339 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: he's you know, he's not gonna be a hundred percent. 340 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 1: Now Tyler Hunley, he's looked great, but it has been 341 00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: in garbage time. You have some tape on him now, 342 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: I mean he's getting rid of ball quick. And this 343 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 1: is what these teams have to adjust to. I mean, 344 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson's bottom five in the NFL in time to 345 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: release and Tyler Huntley so far has been top five. 346 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:11,919 Speaker 1: So he's going first read and pretty much, hey, let 347 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: me throw it to Mark Andrews, which is smart Mark 348 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 1: Andrews and then we take shots to Brown. But you know, 349 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 1: teams are now adjusting to our we saw with Lamar 350 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 1: did now we have some tape on Huntley, so I'm 351 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,400 Speaker 1: not sure he'll be as effective as he's been. So 352 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: I think the Bengals get this win and then the 353 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 1: Ravens season will pretty much. They host the Steelers and 354 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: the closest season at home will probably win that game. 355 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 1: It'll come down the next week at home against the Rams. 356 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,159 Speaker 1: I assume they wrest Lamar this week based on everything 357 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: that I'm seeing, and he's not practicing, so the right 358 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 1: season won't be over. Um, But the Bengals will probably 359 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 1: win the division by winning this game because they'll sweep 360 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 1: the regular season. So yeah, I would go with the 361 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: Bills um, because I just don't there's a lot of 362 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 1: matchup issues for the Ravens this weekend. I guess Pittsburgh 363 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 1: wouldn't totally be dead, right if if the Chiefs have 364 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: just a disaster COVID situation and all of a sudden 365 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: they play like their backups, you know, at every position, 366 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,120 Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, the Steelers win and they'd 367 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 1: be what eight six and one. You'd like, Holy hell, 368 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,640 Speaker 1: these guys are alive, you know. Yeah, Steelers are are 369 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: just finding a way too I mean last week, I 370 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: don't know, they went add eight total yards. UM. So yeah, 371 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,919 Speaker 1: if they could find a way to beat the Chiefs 372 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 1: and we've seen Tom will do this, then they host 373 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 1: the Browns and then they close up the season at 374 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 1: the Ravens, um, they wouldn't be dead. Uh somehow, Well, Kyle, 375 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:31,879 Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan, they asked him what he thought of the Titans. 376 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: He's like, well, I just watched them game against the 377 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: Steelers and they worked them, but somehow they lost because 378 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: they had three turnovers in the second half and you 379 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 1: know they weren't scoring touchdowns, but the Titans were moving 380 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 1: the ball with The Steelers now have won multiple games 381 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: where if you I watched some of their games after 382 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 1: the fact, so I know they win. Yet when I 383 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 1: watch it on game pass, they have three points, like 384 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 1: midway through the third quarter, they're down several scores and like, 385 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: how do they win this game? And then all of 386 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,080 Speaker 1: a sudden, they just pulled plays out of their ass. 387 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 1: They get defensive i'man cousin picks, they get fumbles. I mean, 388 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 1: they do some crazy ship now they don't get blown out, 389 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 1: so they're always be like, you know, it'll be fourteen 390 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: to three instead of three. That that helps, right, They 391 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: would not be able to come back if their defense 392 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: just didn't keep them somewhat in games, so that they 393 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:20,880 Speaker 1: deserve credit for that. They're definitely a physical team. But 394 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,479 Speaker 1: they have won so many games where if you if 395 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 1: you watch it after the fact, it's hard to get 396 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:27,360 Speaker 1: into your brain like they're gonna win this game because 397 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 1: they don't. The ball doesn't go anywhere on offense for 398 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: a while. Yeah. I think there's seven one and one 399 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 1: in one possession games this year. Uh, they've won, they 400 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: tied the lines in overtime, they beat the Seahawks in overtime. Um, 401 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 1: maybe that tie is gonna end up the playoffs, who knows. Um, 402 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: But yeah, they've been extremely fortunate in these close games. 403 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: And uh yeah, they've they've they've shown cracks. I mean 404 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 1: they run defense has been really bad, I mean really 405 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 1: poor this year. So but yeah, I mean, now the 406 00:19:58,160 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: Chiefs are dealing with COVID and that's the wild card 407 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,479 Speaker 1: out of this year. It's like you gotta match up 408 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: where you think you might not win and then all 409 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: of a sudden, the other team gets COVID, and uh, 410 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you have a chance to win, 411 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: and who knows who else gets it in any given weeks. 412 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,360 Speaker 1: So hopefully the NFL, with these changes to the protocols, 413 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: we can avoid this mess in the playoffs because it's 414 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 1: not fun for anyone and it makes it extremely difficult 415 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: to handicap these games. Yeah, it really does. Well, stucky, 416 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: have a safe flight back to your your family, have 417 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: a merry Christmas, Happy holidays, and we'll talk I guess 418 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: next week before New Year's even we have to talk 419 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: a little bit about these, uh, hopefully the two college 420 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,919 Speaker 1: football playoff games. Yep, but you never know. I mean 421 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 1: there's there. You've got a little wild card there too, right, 422 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 1: national championship be a Forfeit is on the day if 423 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 1: we ride, if that happens, we righte. Yep, okay, bro 424 00:20:47,240 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 1: take it easy, ye have allies. See it is the 425 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 1: volume