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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Blue Bag Day Bak podcast, available every

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Speaker 2: morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. Is Monday,

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Speaker 2: the thirty first of March. Here in London.

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Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hepkin.

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Speaker 4: And I'm Tom McKenzie. Coming up today, Stocks drop and

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Speaker 4: bond's rise as the prospect of a full blown trade

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Speaker 4: war drives the NICK into a correction.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump says his plan for so called reciprocal tariffs

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Speaker 2: will be universal. It drives Goldman Sachs to predict more

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Speaker 2: rate cuts.

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Speaker 4: Plus still seeking a carve out, Starmer holds what his

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Speaker 4: team called productive discussions with the US President ahead of

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Speaker 4: looming levies.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 4: The NIK two two five index entering a technical correction,

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Speaker 4: dropping twelve percent from its December high as expected tariff

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Speaker 4: announcements push global stocks into a selloff. Money managers around

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Speaker 4: the world are de risking their portfolios or refraining from

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Speaker 4: taking big positions as they remain wary about the announcement

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Speaker 4: of so called reciprocal tariffs and the impact on the economy.

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Speaker 4: Jamie Niven, senior portfolio manager at Candrium, told us the

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Speaker 4: market is starting to contemplate the negative impacts it will.

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Speaker 5: Impact global growth, So there's no doubt about that. And

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Speaker 5: I think the other thing that's really important to note

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Speaker 5: is the uncertainty around tariffs and how that impacts the

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Speaker 5: US consumer and US corporates. And I think that's what

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Speaker 5: the market's starting to focus on a lot more rather

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Speaker 5: than maybe previously where the focus was on the inflationary aspect.

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Speaker 4: Cariam's Jamie Niven. They're speaking to Bloomberg Radio this morning.

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Speaker 4: Bonds are rallying, with ten year treasure yields dropping currently

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Speaker 4: five little over five basis points, currently yielding four nineteen,

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Speaker 4: so below four twenty on the benchmark US tenure. In commodities, bullion,

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Speaker 4: as Caroline is saying, gaining as much as one percent currently,

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Speaker 4: gold trading at three thousand one and twenty two dollars

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Speaker 4: per troy ouns up one point two percent in the session,

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Speaker 4: at a fresh record high.

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Speaker 2: Well the market moves, President Donald Trump has said that

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Speaker 2: no country will be exempt from his so called reciprocal

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Speaker 2: tariff's plan, which is to be announced on Wednesday. White

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Speaker 2: House officials have insisted that the levees would be more

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Speaker 2: targeted with some nations being excluded. However, speaking on board

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Speaker 2: Air Force One on Sunday night, the President pushed back

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Speaker 2: on the idea.

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Speaker 6: Let's you'd start with all countries, so let's see what happened.

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Speaker 4: There are many countries.

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Speaker 6: I haven't heard a rumor about fifteen countries, ten.

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Speaker 7: Or fifteen things starting as countries.

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Speaker 6: Essentially all of the countries that we're talking about would

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Speaker 6: be talking about all countries that have done a cutoff.

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Speaker 2: President Trump has indicated the plan will go beyond matching

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Speaker 2: tariffs that other countries' levee on US imports to include

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Speaker 2: things like value added tax and also regulations that the

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Speaker 2: White House Caesar's unfair research on Blueberg economics shows that

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Speaker 2: if Trump were to adopt this approach with the fifteen

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Speaker 2: trading partners who have the largest deficits with the tariffs

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Speaker 2: could rise by up to twenty eight percentage points over

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Speaker 2: current average rates, and that would deliver an estimated hit

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Speaker 2: of four percent to USGDP and lift prices in the

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Speaker 2: country by closer to and a half percent.

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Speaker 8: Well.

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Speaker 4: Trump's decision to double down on sweeping tariffs comes as

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Speaker 4: he also insisted he doesn't care if the cost of

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Speaker 4: imported cars rises. In a phone interview with NBC News,

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Speaker 4: he said quote, I could not care less if they

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Speaker 4: raise prices because people are going to start buying American cars.

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Speaker 4: Speaking to Fox News Sunday, Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro,

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Speaker 4: so the auto tariffs would raise significant revenue.

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Speaker 9: We're going to raise about one hundred billion dollars with

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Speaker 9: the auto sheriffs. Salon. What we're going to do is

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Speaker 9: in the new tax bill that has to pass, it

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Speaker 9: absolutely has to pass, We're going to provide tax benefits,

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Speaker 9: tax credits to people who buy American cars. This is

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Speaker 9: a genius thing that President Trump promised on the campaign trail.

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Speaker 4: By Navarro's upbeat assessment, also, prices are broadly expected to

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Speaker 4: increase by thousands of dollars as a result of the levies.

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Speaker 4: JP Morgan analyst estimate prices will jump eleven percent on average.

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Speaker 4: Speaking this morning, European Central Bank Prison Christina Guard so

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Speaker 4: the tariffs will hurt global growth and are a chance

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Speaker 4: for Europe to show its independence from the US.

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Speaker 2: UK Prime Minister Kis Starmer spoke to Donald Trump as

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Speaker 2: Britain tries to escape the lubing global tariffs. A statement

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Speaker 2: from Downing Street says the two leaders held productive discussions

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Speaker 2: and they will stay in touch in the coming days.

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Speaker 2: Home Secretary i At Cooper was asked if the UK

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Speaker 2: would retaliate if it didn't get a deal. The Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister has said that no option is off the table

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Speaker 2: and we will continue to approach this in the UK

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Speaker 2: national interest, that's the important thing. The British government has

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Speaker 2: been working for months on strengthening relations with the White

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Speaker 2: House and is considering cutting digital taxes to secure special treatment.

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Speaker 2: President Trump posts online about the call, but didn't mention trade. Instead,

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Speaker 2: he said that Starmer had told him three people who

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Speaker 2: had vandalized his Scottish golf course had been imprisoned. So far,

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Speaker 2: the UK has been hit by the same levees on

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Speaker 2: steel and auto's as the rest of the world.

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Speaker 4: Gold Sachs economists are forecasting more interest rate cuts this year.

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Speaker 4: That's as President Trump's trade policy threatened global economic growth.

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Speaker 4: Bloombergs ta Adabaio has.

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Speaker 10: More economists at Goldman Sachs now see the FED cutting

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Speaker 10: in July, September and November. That's compared to earlier bets

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Speaker 10: on two cuts this year and one in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 3: In Europe.

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Speaker 10: A separate note said lower growth forecast reinforce expectations that

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Speaker 10: the ECB will lower rates in April and June, with

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Speaker 10: a further quarter percentage point in reduction now seen for July.

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Speaker 10: The news comes as researchers at the bank increase their

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Speaker 10: tariff assumptions for the second time in less than a month,

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Speaker 10: meaning they now expect the average levee to rise fifteen

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Speaker 10: percentage points into any five. Higher consumer prices and lower

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Speaker 10: GDP growth in both the US and EU are also

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Speaker 10: in the firm's forecasts. In London, he were at a

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Speaker 10: Buyo Blimberg radio.

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Speaker 2: President Trump has threatened to punish buyers of Russian oil

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Speaker 2: if Flathimir Putin refuses a ceasefar with Ukraine. In comments

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Speaker 2: reported by NBC News, Trump said that he was very

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Speaker 2: angry and threatened curves on all oil coming out of Russia.

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Speaker 2: Speaking to journalists on Air Force One, the US president, though,

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Speaker 2: was more moderate.

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Speaker 6: I was disappointed in a certain way, So thanks so

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Speaker 6: we said over the last day or two having to

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Speaker 6: deal with Selinsky, because when he considers Solsky not credible,

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Speaker 6: was supposed to be making a deal with them, whether

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Speaker 6: you like it. Where you don't like him, so I

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Speaker 6: wasn't happy with that.

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Speaker 2: The threats mark a significant change of tone for Trump

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Speaker 2: and reflect a growing frustration in the US administration. Russia

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Speaker 2: is one of the world's three largest or producers, meaning

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Speaker 2: that any attempt to punish buyers could have far each

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Speaker 2: effects on both your market and also on inflation.

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Speaker 4: To France, where national rallies, Marine La Penn will find

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Speaker 4: out today whether she'll be banned from running for the

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Speaker 4: French presidency in twenty twenty seven. In the coming hours,

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Speaker 4: judges in the country will rule on an embezzlement case

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Speaker 4: that's put the political future of the far right leader

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Speaker 4: in jeopardy. An immediate ban sought by prosecutors is a

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Speaker 4: very real risk for a pen if she and her

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Speaker 4: party are found guilty of diverting millions of euros in

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Speaker 4: EU funds to finance activities related to their domestic agenda.

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Speaker 2: And those are our top stories for you this morning.

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Speaker 2: Let's have a look at the markets then. European stocks

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Speaker 2: are currently down by one point one percent, so tumbling

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Speaker 2: this morning, even though we've had a very strong quarter

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Speaker 2: versus the US. German two year yields are also on

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Speaker 2: the back of these tariff worries, falling now six basis

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Speaker 2: points in terms of yields to rallying to two sixty six.

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Speaker 2: US yields on a similar footing down by six basis

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Speaker 2: points at four nineteen in terms of the ten year yield.

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Speaker 2: The two year yield for Germany is now down by

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Speaker 2: five basis points. You've also seen money going into gold,

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Speaker 2: to the gold a spot price that's surging one point

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Speaker 2: two percent. The Blue Big Dollar Spot index is down

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Speaker 2: by two tens of one percent. The Euro is higher,

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Speaker 2: turning at one spot zero eight four to three. That

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Speaker 2: is a look at the markets and what is it?

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Speaker 2: A very important week for these tariffs. So we'll be

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Speaker 2: looking at that in depth.

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Speaker 4: Now, Okay, let's bring in at this point then, of course,

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Speaker 4: to focus on the tariffles to lead up to April second,

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Speaker 4: and what, of course President Trump has described as Liberation Day.

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Speaker 4: Valerie Titel, of course, our Market's reporter and Bloomberg's FX

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Speaker 4: and Race reporter, Alice Gledhill. Valerie, let's start with you

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Speaker 4: then on the here and now of what is proving

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Speaker 4: to be and shaping up to be a brutal sell

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Speaker 4: off in Asia and now in Europe.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 8: It seems to be that the US markets are very

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Speaker 8: close to taking out the lows of the year, the

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Speaker 8: year to date lows on March thirteenth, or less than

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Speaker 8: a percent away when it comes to S and P

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Speaker 8: five hundred futures. The equity market is definitely on a

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Speaker 8: shaky footing ahead of the big tearf announcements and the

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Speaker 8: big data prints that we.

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Speaker 3: Do get out this week. It's interesting to see.

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Speaker 8: I know you noted in your market check, Caroline, that

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Speaker 8: this risk off tone is not seeing a bid into

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Speaker 8: the dollar, which is very interesting, at least to me.

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Speaker 8: The Normally, in scenarios where you see equity market weakness,

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Speaker 8: when you see treasury yields declining, it does you also

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Speaker 8: see a safe haven bid into the dollar. But no,

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Speaker 8: we're seeing it strongly in the gold price instead of

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Speaker 8: more than a percent so far this morning trading near

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Speaker 8: record highs for the yellow metal. I think this is

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Speaker 8: all down to the fact that the Fed has basically

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Speaker 8: told us they could look through some short term surge

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Speaker 8: and inflation on the back of tariffs to protect the

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Speaker 8: labor market, which means we could have a scenario where

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Speaker 8: the economy is weakening and we have inflation, and in that, guys,

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Speaker 8: you want to be holding commodities, gold being seen as

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Speaker 8: the top winner in that stagflation kind of trade.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, although things are very uncertain on they perhaps we'll

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Speaker 2: get more into the FED and the ECB policy outlook

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Speaker 2: in a moment, Alice, can I bring you you in though.

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Speaker 2: I mean, all the major sectors in terms of equities

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Speaker 2: in Europe are now in the red, but you've also

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Speaker 2: seen very significant moves in terms of European bond markets.

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Speaker 2: And it does seem to be this battle between the

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Speaker 2: kind of physical spending that Germany has announced versus what

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Speaker 2: the tariff impact might be.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. I think that's kind of what mark's Europe

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Speaker 1: out here. So we've pivoted from this euphoria, I guess

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Speaker 1: kind of towards the start of the month when Germany

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Speaker 1: announced this sort of historic huge spending package and they're

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Speaker 1: planning to invest billions of euros in infrastructure and defense

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Speaker 1: in the next ten years or so. You know, that

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Speaker 1: drove the euro to about one ten. You know, it

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Speaker 1: was touring paroity sort of as you know, just a

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Speaker 1: couple of months ago, stocks European stocks are on track

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Speaker 1: to post their best quarter again versus the US for

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Speaker 1: many years. But over the last week or so, kind

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Speaker 1: of as this April second Liberation Day approaches, we've seen

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Speaker 1: a flip in terms of risk appetite where boosted government

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Speaker 1: bonds and you're seeing it a strong bid this morning,

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Speaker 1: and the euro has come off as high.

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Speaker 4: As well, and that maybe some of that seems to

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Speaker 4: kind of justify or at least what will give credence

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Speaker 4: to the cause from Goldman Sachs that that the ECB

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Speaker 4: and the Fed will have to do more and at

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Speaker 4: a quicker rate. So they're now they've now changed their forecast,

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Speaker 4: so they say now three three cuts from the federal

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Speaker 4: serve this year, three additional cuts from the ECB. Talk

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Speaker 4: to talks about how they've changed their view and kind

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Speaker 4: of what underpins that that that assessment.

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Speaker 1: Alice, Yeah, so you know, the impact of tariffs, as

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Speaker 1: you say, is so uncertain. I think you know, clearly

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Speaker 1: there's concerns around the hit to growth, but there's also

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Speaker 1: concerns about whether this is going to drive inflation once again.

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Speaker 1: I think for now the concerns are focused more on growth,

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Speaker 1: and that's why you're seeing this this kind of flight

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Speaker 1: to Haven's at the moment, just in terms of kind

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Speaker 1: of the number of cuts coming from the ECB and

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Speaker 1: the fed on In the US in particular, there's have

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Speaker 1: been the sort of tennis match kind of for much

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Speaker 1: of this year and last year is sort of how

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Speaker 1: much the fair is going to do one, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of one month that's they're going to be cutting

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Speaker 1: three four times the next months. No, they're not cunning

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Speaker 1: at all, but I think the fact that we're now

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Speaker 1: seeing some of these banks kind of come out and

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Speaker 1: change their forecast, you know, and linking and that to

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Speaker 1: the charish shows that they're they're really quite worried about

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Speaker 1: the impact on growth in the short and medium term.

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Speaker 2: Although Valerie speaking to Jamie Niven you heard a little

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Speaker 2: snippet of his interview with us this earlier, senior portfolio

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Speaker 2: manager at Candrew only you put something interesting and this

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Speaker 2: goes to your point, Alice, that you might basically see

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Speaker 2: no cuts at all, or four or five cuts in

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Speaker 2: the space of a year. But it's actually that middle

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Speaker 2: ground that looks least likely because you'll either have a

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Speaker 2: kind of big tariff impact or maybe you won't. I mean,

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Speaker 2: and you could see Jamie Niven's reaction to the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Intelligence view of the impact on GDP from the tariffs,

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Speaker 2: that the cut to GDP, the four percent GDP impact

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Speaker 2: that Bloomberg Intelligence sees if the kind of maximalist approach

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Speaker 2: comes true, you know, it would make a big difference,

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Speaker 2: wouldn't it. Yeah.

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Speaker 8: I think a lot of people are also pointing out

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Speaker 8: the Atlanta Fed GDP now forecasts, which is a current

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Speaker 8: forecast of GDP for the current quarter based on the

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Speaker 8: data that we've gotten. It's now at a negative two point

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Speaker 8: eight percent caroline. It went way lower after Friday's data,

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Speaker 8: So again you're seeing, you know, the Street marking down

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Speaker 8: their GDP growth forecasts, Goldman being that one doing alongside

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Speaker 8: a call for more cuts. But what I found really

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Speaker 8: interesting in that Goldman sax piece they also upgraded their

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Speaker 8: core PCEE. That's their metric of inflation, the one that

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Speaker 8: the Fed tracks from three percent to three and a half.

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Speaker 8: So they are forecasting a stagflation environment, one that the

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Speaker 8: Fed cuts into. And this is where we have to

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Speaker 8: think about timing. Do we see the impact of tariffs

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Speaker 8: show up in inflation before we see some weakness in

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Speaker 8: the labor market on this overhanging uncertainty, because that could

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Speaker 8: cause quite a pickle for the Federal Reserve. Could they

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Speaker 8: really have the guts to cut into surging inflation because

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Speaker 8: they think of this damaging, you know, the long term

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Speaker 8: growth trend of the US economy, or are they going

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Speaker 8: to hold off until they see some weakness in the

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Speaker 8: labor market, which then again could cause maybe even more

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Speaker 8: damage to the US economy if they don't you introduce

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Speaker 8: some more easy policy.

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Speaker 4: Valles, we think about how to find haven's in this

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Speaker 4: volatile environment. That sixty forty portfolio has come back at

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Speaker 4: at least for now, so that's standing out in terms

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Speaker 4: of the divergence between the performance of bonds versus stocks.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I find that really interesting that this quarter is

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Speaker 8: the first quarter since March twenty twenty where we've seen

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Speaker 8: stocks being hit alongside a treasury market rally. So it's

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Speaker 8: been five years since we've been absent of this traditional correlation.

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Speaker 8: But people are questioning though if we are headed for

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Speaker 8: a US recession. Normally, in the US recession, the deficit balloons.

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Speaker 8: We could be facing a thirteen percent recession, a thirteen

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Speaker 8: percent deficit in the next recession because the current the

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Speaker 8: current deficit is seven percent, so you add five to

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Speaker 8: six based on historical historical analysis of what that could

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Speaker 8: end up being. Do you really want to be buying

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Speaker 8: treasuries if the US government has a thirteen percent deficits

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Speaker 8: A lot of questions being raised on whether on a

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Speaker 8: recession we do get a big treasury rally.

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Speaker 3: Alice, I'm going to leave you with the last word.

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Speaker 2: What do you think that investors and traders are going

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Speaker 2: to be thinking about this week? Because although we've got

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Speaker 2: some kind of analysis of what the impact on the

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Speaker 2: US might be for all the other countries, it's still

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Speaker 2: very very unknown because we don't know the shape of

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Speaker 2: the tariffs. Does that mean more volatility? What do you

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Speaker 2: think it means for markets this week?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an interesting one because just in terms of

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Speaker 1: a sort of market market based gauges of volatility across

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Speaker 1: different asset classes, they've actually been pairing over the last

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Speaker 1: week or so, and I think that's a sign that

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Speaker 1: actually invests just don't really know how to trade this.

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Speaker 1: As you say, it's you know, the outlook is so uncertain.

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Speaker 1: We don't know what Trump's tarers can look like. We

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Speaker 1: don't know how other countries are going to retaliate, and

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Speaker 1: I think on that basis, people are reluctant to kind

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Speaker 1: of place big directional bets either way. And I think

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Speaker 1: we've probably seen more of what we're seeing today, this

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Speaker 1: flight to say and this risk off, very sober sentiment

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Speaker 1: in the market.

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Speaker 4: Okay, battery title, Thank you very much. Indeed, on of

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Speaker 4: course what we're seeing in these markets and the tariff impact,

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Speaker 4: and of course Blue both effects and rates report as well.

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Speaker 4: Alice Gledhill, let's bringing Kristin Bitterly, head of City Global

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Speaker 4: Wealth at Work. Kristin, thank you for joining us in

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Speaker 4: the studio. What assumptions are you making about how much

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Speaker 4: is priced into the equity market now around Trump's tariffs.

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Speaker 7: I don't think the market's position for it actually, so

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Speaker 7: I think the sell off that we're seeing in Europe

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Speaker 7: this morning is a realization that we don't know exactly

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Speaker 7: the quantum of tariffs, the magnitude. I think Trump gave

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Speaker 7: some comfort to the market last week when he said

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Speaker 7: it was going to be relatively lenient and maybe surprise

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Speaker 7: to the upside, but I think the market going into

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Speaker 7: this is not positioned and I actually think the bigger

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Speaker 7: event this week is around employment and getting the employment data.

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Speaker 7: Because to parse through the magnitude of which countries are impacted,

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Speaker 7: which assets are impacted, how is that going to flow

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Speaker 7: through to earnings? That's going to be a tough thing

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Speaker 7: to do in short order. And is this just a

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Speaker 7: baseline for negotiation or is this something that's going to

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Speaker 7: change as we've seen over the past couple of months.

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Speaker 7: So I think it's continued uncertainty. Unfortunately from a policy standpoint.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I mean if you look at the Bloomberg Economics estimates,

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Speaker 2: they are pretty severe. I mean a maximalist analysis that

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence has done would made a kind of four

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Speaker 2: percent impact on US GDP. That is a huge, huge amount.

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Speaker 2: What does the FED do in response to that? So

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Speaker 2: they have to try to get out in front of

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Speaker 2: it by cutting interest rates or do they go with

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Speaker 2: the kind of transitory wait and see.

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Speaker 7: So I think the FED is going to look to

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Speaker 7: their dual mandate of full employment and price stability is

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Speaker 7: what really is going to guide them. And so that's

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Speaker 7: why I mentioned that the employment backdrop on Friday is

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Speaker 7: going to be so critical and important. We're already seeing

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Speaker 7: the deterioration and the economic data, and this predates, by

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Speaker 7: the way, any tariffs. This is something that started really

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Speaker 7: at the beginning of this year that you're seeing a

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Speaker 7: deterioration in the labor market in terms of the quality

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Speaker 7: of jobs, job openings. We're starting to see an uptick

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Speaker 7: in in layoffs. We haven't seen any of the layoffs

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Speaker 7: from the government flow through into.

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Speaker 3: The jobs data yet.

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Speaker 7: This report that we're getting on Friday maybe the first

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Speaker 7: signal of that. And so if we're starting to see

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Speaker 7: an uptick in the unemployment rate, that is something that

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Speaker 7: the FED is certainly going to want to watch. Inflation

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Speaker 7: also is the other part of their mandate. And on

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Speaker 7: the inflation front, you heard chair Pal talk about the

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Speaker 7: fact that he used the transitory word again, which got

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Speaker 7: some giggles from the audience. But I think what he

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Speaker 7: was saying is, look looking at the PCE and the

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Speaker 7: data of so many people trying to front load product

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Speaker 7: and inventory ahead of the tariffs is distorting some of

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Speaker 7: the numbers. So I don't think it changes their trajectory

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Speaker 7: quite yet, but certainly if we see a breakdown, particularly

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Speaker 7: in the employment backdrop, that's going to force them to

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Speaker 7: act sooner.

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Speaker 4: When does stagflation in the US become a base case?

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Speaker 7: Great question, I think from the inflation standpoint, too soon

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Speaker 7: to know. You certainly had certain aspects of it. Feeding

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Speaker 7: through the price of eggs was one of the biggest

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Speaker 7: stories that we've had year to date. But I think

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Speaker 7: what Shairpal mentioned in terms of let's really understand the

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Speaker 7: overarching impact, I think the growth story is more concerning.

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Speaker 7: I think, like when you look at from an inflationary standpoint,

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Speaker 7: we can monitor all those things, and for example, if

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Speaker 7: it's just coming through in goods but then services and

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Speaker 7: shelter remain intact, that's okay, That's something that we can manage.

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Speaker 7: But I think one thing that tariffs will certainly do

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Speaker 7: is it it has to be a hamper on growth,

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Speaker 7: but its very nature, it's going to constrain growth, and

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Speaker 7: you're already seeing some of that come through in terms

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Speaker 7: of the estimates.

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Speaker 2: I'm interested in what that means you do with portfolios, obviously,

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Speaker 2: but I'm also quite interested in the fact that you

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Speaker 2: are talking I mean, Europe is obsessed with with tax

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Speaker 2: the tax implications of invest but you're also saying that

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Speaker 2: you're thinking about tax aware investing as well.

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Speaker 3: I mean in the US. Why is that?

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Speaker 2: I mean I thought the US plan is for significant

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Speaker 2: tax cuts.

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Speaker 3: It is, it is.

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Speaker 7: But when you think of just the act of rebalancing

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Speaker 7: your portfolios, if you're sitting on large gains, there's going

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Speaker 7: to be a hesitancy to do that. So ensuring that

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Speaker 7: you have strategies that can help mitigate some of those

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Speaker 7: tax impacts when you want to rebalance, when you want

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Speaker 7: to take gains. So that is something there's a ton

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Speaker 7: of innovation in the market in terms of how to

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Speaker 7: actually create passive losses within portfolios to be able to

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Speaker 7: mitigate some of that impact. Because right now, I would say,

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Speaker 7: if you're an asset allocator, you're okay. Like if you

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Speaker 7: think about it, if you have exposure to the bond market,

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Speaker 7: bonds have done relatively Obviously there's volatility and rates, but

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Speaker 7: they have been a volatility mitigator in terms of the

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Speaker 7: overall value of your portfolio. If you're diversified across equities,

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Speaker 7: if you added international exposure at the beginning of the year,

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Speaker 7: if you got out of the concent and the mag seven,

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Speaker 7: you're doing okay. But then looking at this backdrop against

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Speaker 7: policy uncertainty, the impact that it's going to have on

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Speaker 7: corporate profitability, and realizing that positioning is still we have

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Speaker 7: not seen capitulation in the market at all. Positioning is

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Speaker 7: still very much overweight US. And so you add those

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Speaker 7: three things up, and you want to make sure that

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Speaker 7: investors are properly preparing for that.

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Speaker 4: Just briefly, as part of that preparation, we've talked about

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Speaker 4: the tax piece. But what is your favorite hedge at

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Speaker 4: this point?

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Speaker 7: So I would say if you're looking within the options

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Speaker 7: market and you're looking at hedges, the most sensitive sector

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Speaker 7: has been technology, so looking at buying some downside protection,

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Speaker 7: particularly on the technology sector. I would also just say,

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Speaker 7: like broad based portfolio hedges are smart for those who

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Speaker 7: are fully invested but are trying to figure out I

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Speaker 7: don't want to be a market timer. I'm not going

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Speaker 7: to fully pull out of the market, and so how

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Speaker 7: can I kind of confidently navigate what could be the

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Speaker 7: next couple of months but also be the next couple

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Speaker 7: of years. And so I think that's a question that

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Speaker 7: a lot of investors are asking.

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