1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,480 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:04,600 Speaker 2: Are you going to place a bet? All? 3 00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: What? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM. 4 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: I'm your host Mike Calabres, and today we have a 5 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 1: very special episode, one that has been requested by our 6 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 1: listeners for years. We're finally here with sports betting best 7 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: practices with some general guidelines. We're also going to delve 8 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 1: into dozens of topics and luckily I am joined by 9 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: two experts in this field. Today we have Billy Ward, 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: a member of Sean Kerner's Predicts of Analytics team, here 11 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 1: with us, as well as Evan Abrams, Action Networks Director 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,599 Speaker 1: of Research and Media. How do you guys doing? 13 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 3: Evan? 14 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 1: Let me start with you. Are you champion at the 15 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: bit to get into football season? 16 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: Hey wait, I mean we're just coming off the Olympics, 17 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: so it's like a little bit of a high to 18 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 2: a low, but we're just getting ready. I just love 19 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 2: action in general, and we're getting to the best action. 20 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: Is this the colm before the storm, Billy? Or are you 21 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: already working on all kinds of predictive you know, goodies 22 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: with Sean and the team to get everyone ready for 23 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: football season. 24 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're always working on stuff. Beyond the scene. I've 25 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 3: had a great time with baseball season this year with 26 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 3: my nerfees. It was literally just last week I said 27 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 3: out loud to someone. I was like, all right, I'm 28 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 3: ready for football. The baseball grind it's every day. It's 29 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 3: you know, you can't build up throughout the week to 30 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 3: look forward to something, So I am finally ready. I 31 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 3: think before we. 32 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: Dive in, I want to set the table bit. All 33 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 1: three of us gamble with great frequency. We love doing it, 34 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 1: we take it seriously. But this you know, audio journey 35 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: that we're going to take you on in the next 36 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: forty minutes. It's for serious gamblers. It's also for casual 37 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: gamblers who just want to get a little bit sharper, 38 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: have some better, you know, tendencies and habits into football 39 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 1: season so you can head into the fall sharper smarter, 40 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: more confident. And a big part of this, too is 41 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: the way that things are presented in the media. It's 42 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: all about hidding that ten leg parlay or hitting it 43 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: rich on a single bet. And I like to draw 44 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: on an analogy from the links when it comes to golf. 45 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: Anybody can walk up to the top golf or the 46 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 1: driving range or the first tee and bomb at two 47 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 1: hundred and eighty five yards. But think of us as caddies. 48 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: We're going to help you with course management, when to 49 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: get aggressive, when to lay up and be conservative, what 50 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: happens if you hit out of bounds. All the rules 51 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: that a good caddy know and you know it can 52 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: help you become a more consistent golfer in the same way. 53 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: We want to do that here with sports betting, so 54 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: you have a better understanding of when you're an advantage 55 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: a disadvantage, and how to stay away from those, you know, 56 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: bad mistakes that can end up costing you and destroying 57 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: your bank roll. Now, before we get into it, Billy, 58 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: I'd like to ask you how long have you bet 59 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: on sports and how long did it take you to 60 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: really feel comfortable out on the course, so to speak. 61 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 3: I've been cads really betting here and there, probably at 62 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 3: this point close to twenty years. I remember betting on 63 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 3: the Pistons to win the finals in middle school in 64 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 3: two thousand and four, so that would be twenty years. 65 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 3: But I really got into it after DFS became a 66 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 3: thing and then kind of transition from there to sports betting. 67 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 3: As I think many of us did, and that's when 68 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 3: I really started to feel comfortable, is learning those lessons 69 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,359 Speaker 3: and player projection and how to do things like that, 70 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 3: and then taking that over to sports gambling. So probably 71 00:02:58,040 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 3: the last four or five years i'd say I felt 72 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 3: comfortable with it. Now. 73 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 1: Obviously, Evan, you didn't start at a director level in 74 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: terms of understanding of the sports betting landscape. How long 75 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: did it take for you to get comfortable and when 76 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: did you officially start? 77 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess it's been about twenty years, but it 78 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 2: probably took me about five years or so after I 79 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 2: started to even start to understand edges. And I'll use 80 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 2: your golf analogy for a second, like which club to 81 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 2: choose in certain circumstances. So yeah, but listen, even today, 82 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,679 Speaker 2: I'm learning, and I think everybody learned along the way, 83 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:31,799 Speaker 2: and if you stop learning, that's when you start to 84 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 2: lose the edges, in my opinion, So keep breathing, keep learning. 85 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: As someone who's bet for twenty five years, I really 86 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 1: look at it as two different halves of my betting career. 87 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: The first half is when I was just kind of 88 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: fumbling around in the dark, trying to have fun, trying 89 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 1: to you know, get some winners on the board. And 90 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: then I started booking bets in college, and as soon 91 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: as I shifted to the other side of the transaction, 92 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: it became very clear to me what was a sharp 93 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: gambler and what was a square. And I wanted to 94 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: get away from those tendencies and those tactics that kept 95 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: the squares in the red at all times. So coming 96 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,119 Speaker 1: out of that, I started to learn of those pitfalls 97 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: that I wanted to avoid. Now we're going to throw 98 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: around a lot of jargon and hopefully unpack some of 99 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: it and demystify it to a certain degree. So let's 100 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: start very simply with plus EV expected value value in general. 101 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 1: What did those phrases mean to you, Billy, and how 102 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 1: do you use them on a daily basis as a gambler? 103 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, the expected value of a bet is just what 104 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:26,919 Speaker 3: you would expect to return or get back if you 105 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 3: made that bet a theoretical infinite number of times. Right, 106 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 3: So if it's a ten percent plus EV and you 107 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 3: made that bet enough times, we would expect to make 108 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 3: ten percent of whatever our stake was. And that's just 109 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 3: based on the difference between what the market or what 110 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 3: the line is and what you think the true probability 111 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 3: of that happening is. And I kind of throw those 112 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 3: out in interchangeably ev value edge all of those things. Obviously, 113 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 3: if it's negative expected value, there is no edge. It's 114 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 3: the opposite of an edge. You're in theory over a 115 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 3: long enough timeframe, losing money. But the biggest thing to 116 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 3: keep in mind is we'll say things like that, but 117 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 3: obviously we don't know the exact outcome for my nerfee. 118 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 3: You know, models and projections. I can say my model 119 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 3: thinks it's going to happen forty seven percent of the 120 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 3: time or something, but that's not an exact science. So 121 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,239 Speaker 3: that's just based on whatever underlying data you're using, whether 122 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 3: that's Strawn's player props or anything else we give out. 123 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:19,479 Speaker 3: It's not an exact science, but we like to think 124 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 3: over a long enough timeframe and the way we backtest 125 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 3: things that will eventually get to that expected value. 126 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 1: And let's talk about the three pack teasers parlays and 127 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: the Russian nesting doll of parlays, the round robin. Could 128 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 1: you could just kind of walk through and explain that, 129 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 1: because in a lot of ways, teasers are kind of 130 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,160 Speaker 1: that entry way for gamblers the very first time that 131 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: they're learning of something other than a straight bet. So 132 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 1: let's start with teasers. How do they work? 133 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 2: So you'll start off the bat by really understanding the basics, 134 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 2: which is teasers work for most people because of key numbers, 135 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 2: which is, you know, in football, even with the two 136 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 2: point conversion, like three seven, ten, the numbers at the 137 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 2: game tends to fall on the most, so teasing through 138 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 2: and around those key numbers. A lot of betters will say, 139 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 2: don't tease through zero because you kind of lose value 140 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 2: at the half and minus a half just not something 141 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,240 Speaker 2: that most people do, especially because you're paying a larger 142 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 2: vig in certain circumstances and honestly watching the odds itself 143 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 2: on the teaser. But going back to the basics, teaser 144 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 2: is just a parlay with adjusted prices and lines. So 145 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 2: in football you tend to see like six six and 146 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 2: a half seven point teasers. In basketball four four and 147 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 2: a half and five point teezers. Now in post legalization, though, 148 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 2: you can pretty much move the lines any way you 149 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 2: want on any game and the book will spit out 150 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,919 Speaker 2: a price on either the game or the teaser itself. 151 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 2: So I think kind of the traditional teaser has gone 152 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 2: by the wayside a little bit with these gamified sports books. 153 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 2: But the easiest way to understand kind of the plus 154 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 2: ev is just making sure your odds are right, because 155 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:02,119 Speaker 2: a minus one ten teaser and a minus one twenty 156 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 2: or minus one thirty is can be a difference of 157 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 2: like one and a half percent to three percent difference 158 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 2: in your bet and what you're returning. So those are 159 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 2: all the basics, and those are the things, in my opinion, 160 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 2: you should be paying attention to now. 161 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: When it relates to round robins, I think that's when 162 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: we start to get the casual gambler a little bit nervous. 163 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: I don't understand it. I'm just never gonna use it. 164 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: And in a lot of cases, particularly when you're playing underdogs, 165 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: it can be advantageous as opposed to putting together a 166 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 1: four and five leg parlay that's just destined for heartbreak. 167 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: With a single loss, you get to four or five wins. 168 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: You know, in a round robin, all of a sudden 169 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: you are absolutely flush in terms of your bankroll. So 170 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: walk us through why round robins are so popular with 171 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: sharp betters. 172 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 2: Well, let's just start off with the basics. If you 173 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 2: don't know what a round robin is, and you know 174 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: what a parlay is. Congratulations, you know what a round 175 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 2: robin is because it's just a parlay all it is is. 176 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 2: And here's an easiest example. So three football games. You've 177 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,559 Speaker 2: got the Giants plus three, You've got the Jets plus seven, 178 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 2: and you've got the Cowboys plus seven. Now all three 179 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 2: of those teams together, three teams would be a parlay 180 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 2: if you have to hit all three of them. Now, 181 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 2: a round robin of those three teams would just be 182 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 2: two team parlays. So the Jets and Giants or the 183 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 2: Jets and Cowboys. Now, the only thing to understand when 184 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 2: you're doing a round robin, and I'm doing the basics 185 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 2: here with three teams, is that you're paying more of 186 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 2: a price, just like you would be to put in 187 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 2: multiple parlays. So if I'm doing a two round robin 188 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 2: or three in this case, which would be a parlay, 189 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 2: I'm just paying for each of those bets. Now, what 190 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 2: Mike said is one hundred percent true, and it's usually 191 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 2: the strategy of professional betters when they're kind of messing 192 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 2: around a little bit, because I personally don't think round 193 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 2: robins in general are very much plus ev because you 194 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 2: are just betting parlays. But if you put all the 195 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 2: underdogs together, So in that example of the Giants plus three, 196 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 2: the Jets plus seven, and Dallas plus seven, if I 197 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 2: would to add all of their money lines, which would 198 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 2: be plus money, you know, two hundred plus one fifty, 199 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 2: et cetera, and only two of those hit. If I 200 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,079 Speaker 2: did the strategy we talked about before, you would come 201 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 2: out with a profit, and if I did the parlay, 202 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 2: obviously I would lose. So that tends to be the 203 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,319 Speaker 2: strategy behind some of this stuff. But again, if you're 204 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 2: trying to figure out is this good value or am 205 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,199 Speaker 2: I coming out on top? Just think of it as 206 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 2: individual parlays, and the more teams you add, the more 207 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 2: expensive it gets. So four teams, five teams, you're doing 208 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 2: parlays under that big parlay amount. So if there's five 209 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 2: teams in it, you do four or three. But that's 210 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 2: the basic gist of it, and you can kind of 211 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 2: get the sense of how much something costs on any 212 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 2: of the sports books when you click the tab. 213 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,199 Speaker 1: And to zoom out even further. Before you put your 214 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: money into play, you need to think about bank roll management. 215 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,320 Speaker 1: This is a big differentiator for me at the beginning 216 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: of my betting career to where I am now, and 217 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: it starts with two specific numbers. How much money do 218 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 1: you have in a pool to work with and where 219 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: do you want to get to? Because this is gonna 220 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: allow you to, you know, fluctuate your risk appetite on 221 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: a particular bet. It also helps you put a comfortable 222 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: amount of money into play on a single bet. In 223 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: a lot of cases unit size, so your standard bet 224 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: should fall somewhere between one in a conservative situation to 225 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: five percent, which would be an aggressive situation on a 226 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: per bet basis. And being able to set things up 227 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 1: like this it allows you to be disciplined and to 228 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:27,840 Speaker 1: combat cold streaks. Everyone wants to brag about their hot streaks. 229 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: You know, I've gone seventeen to three in the last 230 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 1: three weeks. It cuts the other way. Even for really 231 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: sharp betters, you're gonna have bad breaks. You're gonna have 232 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: cold streaks. So how do you protect yourself so you're 233 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 1: not double tripling down and worse trying to chase those losses. 234 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: That's how you destroy a bankroll, And when you think 235 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: about it through an entire season, this is how you 236 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 1: protect yourself. Speaking of protecting yourself, sometimes sportsbooks are offering 237 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: things that you should take advantage of. There's quote unquote 238 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:56,119 Speaker 1: suckers bets with these, you know, nine to ten leg parlays. 239 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: They want you to dump your money into those because 240 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: you're not gonna hit them. But on the other side, 241 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: there's opportunities to strategize with bonus bets and sign up bonuses. Billy, 242 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: how do you incorporate this into your overall strategy. 243 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, it kind of loops back to your bankroll management 244 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 3: spiel just a second ago, because for me, it really 245 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,319 Speaker 3: depends on whether that bonus bet is a somewhat significant 246 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 3: part of my bankroll, you know, whether it's close to 247 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 3: a unit, or whether it's just like, you know, five 248 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 3: bucks and I've got a big bankroll and I don't 249 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 3: really care about it. Either way, we should be looking 250 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 3: for plus money bets because with those bonus bets, you 251 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 3: don't get your stake back. So a ten dollars bonus 252 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 3: bet on an even money pick, if you win, you 253 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 3: only get ten dollars, where if you're betting ten dollars cash, 254 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 3: you'd get twenty. If you do the math on those 255 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 3: on the return. The return is closer to what it 256 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 3: should be. The higher the odds go, obviously, you're less 257 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:44,839 Speaker 3: likely to hit it. If you have just one of 258 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 3: those small ones that doesn't really impact your bankroll. You 259 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 3: don't really care if you don't get anything out of it. 260 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 3: I just try to find the highest, you know, plus 261 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 3: money I can on that site, and then I use 262 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 3: our odd screener to make sure that that's the best 263 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 3: line at that site, Because getting plus five hundred on 264 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 3: one sportsbook is great with your bonus bet, but if 265 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 3: it was plus seven hundred somewhere else, you're leaving money 266 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 3: on the table. It gets a little bit different if 267 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 3: it's a significant amount, like when you make your first deposit. 268 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 3: If they match that stuff like that with those I 269 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 3: start the same way. I'm trying to find a plus 270 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 3: money bet that's the highest where I have the bonus bet. 271 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 3: Then what I'll do, though, is I'll go to a 272 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 3: different site, ideally the one that has the best odds 273 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 3: on the other team or the other outcome, and just 274 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 3: heads that off. And you can play with the amounts 275 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 3: depending on the numbers involved, but you can usually if 276 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 3: you work it right, get about sixty percent of that 277 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 3: bonus value back guaranteed no matter what happens, by betting 278 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 3: on both sides of it. So that's something I would 279 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 3: do if it's a significant chunk of my bank role, 280 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 3: whereas if it's just an insignificant amount, I'll just let 281 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 3: it ride. You know, you get a ten to one 282 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 3: every once in a while. The other thing I really 283 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 3: like it for, which I think we'll talk about a 284 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 3: little bit later, is futures bets, just because you're usually 285 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 3: looking at big plus money when you're trying to pick 286 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 3: a team to win the Super Bowl or a player 287 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 3: to win the MVP, stuff like that. We're usually hunting 288 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 3: plus money anyway, so those bonus bets work out nicely 289 00:12:59,600 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 3: on those. 290 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: One question we get often in the comments section, casual 291 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 1: gamblers just want to know, like why do bigger games 292 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,599 Speaker 1: generally have tighter lines? You know, they go around and 293 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: they shop. Shopping around is key. By the way, if 294 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: you're in a state like mine in Pennsylvania, where there's 295 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,680 Speaker 1: ten to twelve legal sports books, you can find better 296 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: odds and plus money, and over time, if you use 297 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:22,839 Speaker 1: that as a best practice, you're just going to make 298 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 1: more money. You're not going to leave those opportunities on 299 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: the table. So as it relates to bigger games having 300 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 1: tighter lines, I'd also like to expand this to a 301 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: question of markets that have you know, larger volume, how 302 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: that impacts you know, the bets and the odds that 303 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: you see. As well as the phrase like higher liquidity. 304 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 1: What does that mean, Billy as it relates to games 305 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: that have tighter or looser lines. 306 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, the gist of it is just that when there's 307 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 3: more people and more money betting onto a market, if 308 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 3: there's something off with that line where there's truly an edge, 309 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 3: enough people will have bet it to kind of found 310 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 3: that out and push the sports books into making the 311 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 3: quote unquote correct line. Again, like I was saying earlier, 312 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 3: we don't know what the Zach Crack line should be. 313 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 3: These are real humans, not a computer simulation, so we 314 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 3: can't say exactly. But things like NFL games, NFL sides, 315 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 3: you know, soccer, European soccer, NBA, those things get so 316 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 3: much attraction attention in the market that if they're off 317 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 3: by a point or two, that's going to get figured 318 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 3: out pretty quick because big betters are going to come in. 319 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 3: They're going to bet five six figures and the sports 320 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 3: books don't want that risk. Now, if you're looking at 321 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 3: something like WNBA player props or nurfees or some of 322 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 3: these smaller markets that we like to bet, there's not 323 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 3: so many total bets that if one or two people 324 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 3: place a significant bet on one side, it's going to 325 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 3: move the line at that book considerably. Some other books 326 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 3: might follow suits, some might not. But that's why we 327 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 3: get that widespread. That's really important, especially if you're tailing 328 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 3: other people's picks, because when Sean Kerner gives out a 329 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 3: WNBA player prop and twenty thirty fifty one hundred people 330 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 3: bet it, that might be the whole market for that prop. 331 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 3: So all of a sudden, the sports book goes, oh, no, 332 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 3: we're on the wrong side of this one. We need 333 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 3: to get that fixed and change the line. And then, obviously, 334 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 3: if people are given out an NFL side, unless the 335 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 3: whole world tails them, it's not going to move the 336 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 3: market very much. And then to the liquidity question. That 337 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 3: also means that sportsbooks are willing to take bigger bets 338 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 3: on markets where they already have more money and they 339 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 3: feel more confident in the line. So if you're a 340 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 3: super high roller and have a ton of money to bet, 341 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 3: you can get down way more on an NFL point 342 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 3: spread than you can on a WNBA player prop. I 343 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 3: think for most people that's probably not super relevant, you know, 344 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 3: with that bankroll management we're talking about, you're probably not 345 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 3: running into that anyway, at least early in your career. 346 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 3: But it's something to keep in mind if you do 347 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 3: get to the point where you're a professional gambler or 348 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 3: making a ton of money at this where you can 349 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 3: make more money. If you can figure out how to 350 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 3: beat NFL sides, then you can WNBA player props, but 351 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 3: it's much much harder to do so, so it's a 352 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 3: risk for award thing there. 353 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 1: Even in the sport that I cover the closest, which 354 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 1: is college football, you see a huge disparity between an 355 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: Oregon Ohio State game that is going to be so 356 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 1: well calibrated in terms of the numbers that they hang, 357 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: how they adjust to action throughout the week, as opposed 358 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: to this week zero game between Hawaii and Delaware State. 359 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: That game from open has moved eleven points in points 360 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 1: spread because Delaware State, certainly to casual betters, that's a 361 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 1: mystery box. They just see an FCS team. They assume 362 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: that all FCS teams are bad. Let me be the 363 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: first one to break this news that is not true. 364 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: North Dakota State and Delaware State may play at the 365 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: same level, but they are nowhere close in terms of 366 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 1: overall power ranking. So for a line to move eleven points, 367 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 1: you don't need to be the sharpest better in the 368 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: world to understand. In football, that's a lot of line 369 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: movement to understand getting a good number as opposed to, 370 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: you know, essentially playing a bad number. Now, let me 371 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 1: bring you back into the conversation, Evan, because we're talking 372 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: a lot about these bets that you're making, you know, 373 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: maybe a few days out, maybe thirty six hours, maybe 374 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: adjusting in game to be able to hedge. How do 375 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: you look at futures which could tie up your money 376 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 1: for months at a time. How do you balance basically 377 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: giving an interest free loan to the sports books as 378 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 1: opposed to what you can get back on the other side. 379 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think off the bat, there's an 380 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 2: understanding of kind of what it is in the and 381 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 2: there's how to bet on it. And to me, it's 382 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 2: a smaller bankroll overall obviously than like single games I'm 383 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 2: more interested in single games and I am futures bets 384 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 2: for a number of reasons, one being the whole percentage 385 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:15,119 Speaker 2: is usually ridiculously higher in futures bets because you know, 386 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 2: higher payouts, more markets, more options can be a difference 387 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 2: of like fifteen or twenty percent. So and also you're 388 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 2: usually able to get more money down on single games 389 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 2: and you are futures. But even with legalization, I think 390 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 2: a lot has changed again in this type of bet 391 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 2: with the futures. To me, it's just more options, more 392 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 2: different things. And what a future is is again it's 393 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 2: not a single game to me, it's something that comes 394 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 2: out in fruition a few days down the line, weeks, 395 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 2: months can be a title, can be a player accomplish 396 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 2: a feat. I think futures the title has kind of 397 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 2: gotten a little cloudy with all these different options. But 398 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 2: that's what the definition is to me. And then in 399 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 2: terms of the interest part, which I think it's a 400 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 2: more difficult thing to grasp and part of the conversation, 401 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 2: it's like right now in August, if I'm going to 402 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,679 Speaker 2: be investing in, you know, the Celtics to win the 403 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 2: title in the NBA next year, that's a long time 404 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 2: to put my money into a sports book for a 405 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 2: plus two to fifty plus three fifty wager where the 406 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 2: money just sits there. I'm not you know, occurring interest 407 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:23,399 Speaker 2: or anything like that on my side. My money is 408 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: not doing anything for me except for the bet. So 409 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 2: trying to figure out, especially when it's large amounts of money, 410 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:31,639 Speaker 2: I think, is a difficult thing to grasp down the 411 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,919 Speaker 2: line more than just something fun. If I was to 412 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 2: put you know, five dollars twenty dollars on like one 413 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 2: hundred to one shot. But again, shopping, like with everything, 414 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 2: is probably the biggest asset here, which is, you know, 415 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:47,119 Speaker 2: in a state like New York, if you've got seven 416 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 2: eight different sports books, making sure you get the best 417 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:54,240 Speaker 2: percentage on your side is pretty vital, especially because the 418 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,919 Speaker 2: whole percentage on some of these markets futures can be 419 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,879 Speaker 2: very very high. Now, that's the percentage of money that 420 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 2: house keeps for every dollar wagered, which is the easiest 421 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 2: way to explain it. Again, a lot of math and 422 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 2: imply probability comes into play here, but that's the basics 423 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 2: to me. 424 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 3: That's another reason I prefer to use bonus bets and 425 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,159 Speaker 3: stuff like that. On futures because if they're holding your 426 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 3: money for x amount of time, your bonus bet isn't 427 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:19,159 Speaker 3: your money. You couldn't take your bonus bet to a 428 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 3: high yield savings account and you know, put it in 429 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 3: there and demmand extra money back. So obviously, for most 430 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 3: of us it's not a huge chunk. We're not getting 431 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 3: giant bonus bets. But over the course of the season, 432 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 3: if you know, there's a home run promotion that's giving 433 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 3: you one every week, and you can build a portfolio 434 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 3: of cy young candidates, MVPs, NFL Super Bowl winners, whatever, 435 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 3: it can be pretty significant by the end of the year, 436 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 3: and you're then not giving the sports book an interest 437 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,399 Speaker 3: free loan for however many months. So that's one of 438 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,119 Speaker 3: the things I really like to do with that. I 439 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 3: almost never use real money on a future bets because 440 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 3: most of us are generating enough bonus bets throughout the 441 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 3: course of the year that we can we can wet 442 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 3: the appetite that way. 443 00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, the opportunity cost of leaving your money tied up 444 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: four months at a time cannot be overstated, particularly for 445 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 1: those shorter futures bets. In the world of college football 446 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,199 Speaker 1: right now, there are. That's basically a new market for 447 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 1: all the G five teams to make the college Football Playoff. Liberty, 448 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 1: who made the Festa Bowl last year, is sitting at 449 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: four to one. Now do I want to tie my 450 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: money up for five months for a Liberty team that 451 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 1: may get leap progged even if they go undefeated, or 452 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:22,639 Speaker 1: I could play them in the one game that I 453 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 1: feel like they really could lose this year against app 454 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: State at plus one twenty five plus one thirty. Yes, 455 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: I'm missing out on that four to one potentially, but 456 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: I keep my money in play the whole time. I 457 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 1: can just play it on that Saturday in the fall, 458 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 1: as opposed to having to wait the five months. These 459 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: are considerations that you need to make beyond just what 460 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: do I think is going to happen? And did I 461 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: get the best number out of the market. If you 462 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 1: get them at plus four to fifty in set of 463 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,439 Speaker 1: four to one, does that move the needle for you? 464 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 1: It all depends on your bank roll. It depends on 465 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 1: your risk, appetite, and what you're trying to accomplish by 466 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 1: the end of the season. These things all come into play. 467 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast, Everybody is brought to you by 468 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,879 Speaker 4: bet MGM use the bonus code action when signing up 469 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 4: to get up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus 470 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 4: bets if your first bet does not win. 471 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 1: For new users in. 472 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 4: Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 473 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 4: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, 474 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,880 Speaker 4: and Wyoming, terms and conditions apply. It must be twenty 475 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 4: one plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. 476 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 1: Now, as it relates to NFL football, I have a 477 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: question for you, Billy. There are some betters that just 478 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 1: like to bet either early or late, ride the market, 479 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 1: try to get the best of a number, try to 480 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 1: see where the sharp money's coming in. What does line 481 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: movement mean to you in a sport like that, as 482 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 1: opposed to having your own personal power rankings or betting 483 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: from your own sense of feel. There's some people that 484 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 1: have been profitable long term just playing the market. 485 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, it certainly goes back to the liquidity question that 486 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,639 Speaker 3: we talked about earlier. Because the NFL market is so 487 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 3: efficient and we assume that the right number eventually turns 488 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 3: out that if you have line movement, if you bet 489 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 3: early at minus three and the team moves to my five, 490 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 3: you probably made a pretty good bet, right because you're 491 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 3: two points out of what the current line is, you 492 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 3: would expect to win that more often than not. It's 493 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 3: obviously not guaranteed. You know, more often than not. On 494 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 3: stuff like NFL sizes might mean sixty percent of the time. 495 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 3: If you're hitting sixty percent, you're doing great. If it's 496 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 3: something you know, like I'm the big IMMA guy, CLV 497 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 3: and MMA means almost nothing because somebody will post a 498 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 3: picture look an extra jecked on Instagram, and all of 499 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 3: a sudden, the market goes, you know, a dollar or 500 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 3: the other direction. That probably doesn't mean anything. It's also 501 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 3: I think the most important thing, though, is to realize 502 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,200 Speaker 3: if there's been some piece of news or some piece 503 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 3: of information that's came out that has changed that line, 504 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,879 Speaker 3: or is the line just moving because sharp betters have 505 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 3: identified it as being off, because that can be very different. 506 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 3: If the line moves because a key player is ruled 507 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 3: out or a weather situation pops up or something like that, 508 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 3: you still get your CLV or don't have your CLV, 509 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:52,679 Speaker 3: but then betting on the other side might not be 510 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 3: a bad idea. You know, there's there's a lot of 511 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 3: factors to consider. If it's just moving because people are 512 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 3: betting on one side, and you can a book that 513 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 3: hasn't moved yet, you can probably, as you alluded to Mike, 514 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:05,679 Speaker 3: make a lot of money in the long run if 515 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 3: you're just picking off that book or two that hasn't moved. Again, 516 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 3: if it's because of actual information, that might be a 517 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,360 Speaker 3: little bit different story. But if we're getting sharp signals 518 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,199 Speaker 3: from one side and not the other, and you can 519 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 3: find the slow moving books, that'll help you out. 520 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 1: The Action Network app for those who have not subscribed, 521 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: they give you all kinds of tools and alerts when 522 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 1: there are certain indicators moving in a certain direction, and 523 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 1: that can be a really fun way to have a 524 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 1: different strategy this season, as opposed to kind of shooting 525 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,240 Speaker 1: from the hip. Because big picture, this is like hockey, 526 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 1: this is like soccer. There are the expected goals and 527 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 1: then there's the goals that actually find it to the 528 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: back of the net. Long term, you want to have 529 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: as many expected goals as possible because that's going to 530 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 1: equate to you having a winning season, So closing line value, 531 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 1: you can't go to the window and cash that ticket, 532 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 1: but it is something that you want to strive for 533 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: over time because it just gives you more opportunities to win. 534 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 1: Because if you're looking to access to Action Pro this 535 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: NFL season, now is the best time to sign up. 536 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,400 Speaker 1: For less than ten dollars a month, get a year 537 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 1: of Action Pro access, which includes sides totals, player prop picks, 538 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 1: and projection edges from Sean Kerner and his analytics team 539 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 1: guys like Billy Ward here with us now across all sports. 540 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 1: To sign up now, visit Actionnetwork dot com, slash Pricing, 541 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 1: or just follow the link in the episode's description. Speaking 542 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 1: of opportunities to win, Evan, here's a question for you. 543 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 1: When it comes to your favorite team, one that you 544 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 1: may be a bit biased on. Do you just completely 545 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 1: avoid those games altogether or do you do a bit 546 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 1: of an emotional hedge as we like to call it 547 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 1: here in the biz. I'm a Jets fan, but I 548 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: don't want the Jets to win because maybe they'll get 549 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 1: a better draft pick, or maybe I bet against him 550 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 1: this week. Playing these different head games, do you get 551 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 1: involved with that or you do avoid it all together. 552 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,959 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm pretty passionate about this just because I 553 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 2: grew up a big sports fan in New York and 554 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 2: have kind of lost fandom along the way while I'm 555 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 2: gambling more seriously. So I would just say anybody who's 556 00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 2: a super fan who wants to put more investment than 557 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,440 Speaker 2: just their hopes and dreams of their actual team, they 558 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 2: want to put their money behind it. It's just about 559 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 2: again bankroll management. I have no problem putting a five dollars, 560 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 2: ten dollars, twenty dollars, depending on what your actual real 561 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 2: unit in gambling is on your favorite team, or you 562 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 2: know you're going to the game, which is an example 563 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 2: I hear all the time from people. It's fine, bet 564 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 2: this guy to hit a home run, bet the nerfy, 565 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 2: bet whatever you need to bet to have a good time. 566 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,919 Speaker 2: Think of it as entertainment, couch money, pizza money, and 567 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 2: some of our people call it. But I just think, 568 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 2: bottom line, gambling needs to be responsible and fun. So 569 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 2: going to a game betting on your favorite team nothing 570 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,360 Speaker 2: wrong with it. Just don't go out of your means, 571 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 2: I think is the easiest way to explain it. Because 572 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,440 Speaker 2: if you're gambling and you're not having fun at all 573 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,920 Speaker 2: doing it, you need to not be doing it. So 574 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 2: I just think there's a nice balance here. But I'm 575 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:51,440 Speaker 2: curious what you guys think. 576 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, as a lifelong Detroit Lions fan, I 577 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 3: did a lot of probably to swim too far in 578 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 3: the other direction just because I always assumed the worst 579 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 3: would happen for the Lions. I have at the point 580 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 3: now as a serious gambler where I am not making 581 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 3: my own decisions about the Lions. They're the one team 582 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,719 Speaker 3: that I still feel that way about, where I just 583 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,360 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna be able to think critically enough. If 584 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,800 Speaker 3: I see Sean Kerner saying a player prop on the Lions, 585 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,399 Speaker 3: I'm gonna trust him. But yeah, I am not at 586 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 3: any point betting on the Lions based on my own knowledge, 587 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 3: just because I know I'm too biased there. So I 588 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 3: think some introspection is probably super important there, where you know, like, 589 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 3: am I thinking logically about this as a better or 590 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,680 Speaker 3: as my whatever team fandom clouding that. I think that's 591 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 3: an important part of the equation. 592 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,480 Speaker 1: I always view it as there's sixty to seventy games 593 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 1: in a given week between college and pro. There are 594 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: more fish in the sea unless I feel super passionately 595 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 1: about a particular angle or a news story or something 596 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,359 Speaker 1: that's leading me to say I have to bet on 597 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 1: the Eagles or against the Eagles, or over under whatever 598 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,200 Speaker 1: it is. Most I would say, probably max two or 599 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,639 Speaker 1: three times a year I'm putting any money into play 600 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 1: involves my favorite team. So I agree with you, guys, 601 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,359 Speaker 1: it does come down to how do you view it. 602 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 1: Is this entertainment or is this business? Because if you 603 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 1: want to be a businessman and you want to make money, 604 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 1: you really have to divorce yourself from that emotion That 605 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 1: can really blind people because a big part of even 606 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 1: fantasy football, it's riding with your guys. You have conviction, 607 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 1: you believe in them. That may mean a bad month, 608 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,320 Speaker 1: and are you willing to ride out that many losing 609 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,680 Speaker 1: bets just to prove to yourself that you were quote 610 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 1: unquote right. And I think that that's a big part 611 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: of it that can be difficult that people gamble for 612 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 1: lots of different reasons for entertainment, for a bit of 613 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:32,720 Speaker 1: a god complex to say I knew it was going 614 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 1: to happen, and I'm proving it to you or some 615 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 1: people that want to make money, So you can't have 616 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 1: all three at the same time, so it's important to 617 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: be able to balance that out before you get into things. 618 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,199 Speaker 1: I like to close out with this. We've talked a 619 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 1: bit about what the sportsbooks want you to do. They 620 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:48,640 Speaker 1: want you to throw your money on those long shots. 621 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,239 Speaker 1: Be as long term in terms of their risk. They 622 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 1: can spread that out. They're just making money court to quarter. 623 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 1: It's why these companies are so profitable. On the other side, 624 00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,360 Speaker 1: there are opportunities that they put out there, whether they're 625 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: sign up bonus or boosets that can help the player. Now, 626 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: let's get into a bit of that great area where 627 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 1: they're offering cash out options on things that haven't happened 628 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 1: yet you have. You know, let's say the New York 629 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,880 Speaker 1: Giants to win the NFC East and they get off 630 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,119 Speaker 1: to a ten in one start and they're begging you 631 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 1: to buy out of that bet and they're offering you money. 632 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 1: Let's start with you, billy, how do you approach these 633 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 1: I'm sure it comes down to the math of the 634 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: expected value and how often are they actually offering you 635 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:28,680 Speaker 1: something that's quote unquote fair. 636 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, as far as I've seen, I would say probably 637 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 3: never offering you what's fair, because if you look around 638 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 3: in the market, you can usually find the other side 639 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,959 Speaker 3: of that bet where you wouldn't have to risk very 640 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 3: much in order to guarantee a better return than the 641 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 3: cash out is offering you. That does get tricky if 642 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 3: it's a future's bet you know a team to win 643 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 3: the division, because then you have to think, Okay, who's 644 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 3: the next likeliest team? Do I need to bet on 645 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 3: all three other teams? Do I need to bet on 646 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,760 Speaker 3: two other teams? That makes it a little bit trickier 647 00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 3: for single games and stuff like that, though you know, 648 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 3: single single event you can almost always just simply bet 649 00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,560 Speaker 3: on the other side and guarantee yourself a higher profit 650 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 3: than the cash out would have given you. What's important, though, 651 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 3: is making sure that you are not over betting your bankroll. 652 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 3: As we've talked about. If you find yourself on a 653 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 3: spot where you don't have enough money left in your 654 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 3: account to hedge the other side of a bet so 655 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 3: you feel compelled to take the cash out, you've probably 656 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 3: been betting too much. We see this a lot where 657 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 3: people make ten team parlays and they've got nine teams down, 658 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 3: and they'll make you know mid five figures. If this 659 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 3: last team hits, they don't have enough money to hedge. 660 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 3: On the other side, you probably went a little bit 661 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 3: too big. It's obviously a good problem to have because 662 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 3: you can still lock in some profit based on what 663 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 3: you do have. But I think it ultimately does just 664 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 3: still come down to that bankroll management where if you're 665 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,040 Speaker 3: in a position where you have to take the cash 666 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,400 Speaker 3: out because you can't get out of it or guarantee 667 00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 3: profit any other way, you've almost always made a mistake. 668 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 1: It's interesting. I think there's a misconception when it comes 669 00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 1: to hedging that there's a bit of this machismo where 670 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,720 Speaker 1: it's like, you know, you just don't have the intestinal 671 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 1: fortitude to ride this out. What people need to understand 672 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: is a hedge just isn't, you know, throwing your hands 673 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,240 Speaker 1: up and saying I'll take a lesser number. In some cases, 674 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 1: it could be covering the money that you put in 675 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,520 Speaker 1: on the bet, so that way you either break even 676 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 1: or you make some profit you can move. It's a 677 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,520 Speaker 1: sliding scale when it comes to hedging. It's not something 678 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 1: that's all or nothing or feeling as though you're, you know, 679 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 1: raising the white flag to the sports book, Evan, how 680 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 1: do you think about this in particular when it comes 681 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 1: to not only playing something and from a future's perspective, 682 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 1: but also how do you hedge? Is there a live market? 683 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,480 Speaker 1: Do you have money set aside from a bankroll management 684 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 1: perspective to make sure that you can put the screws 685 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 1: to the sports book and not the other way around. 686 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,400 Speaker 2: To start with the cash out question, I think the 687 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,480 Speaker 2: question always comes down to what does the money mean 688 00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 2: to you? It all depends on the wager, right. If 689 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 2: it's a two team parlay, in the first team hits 690 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 2: and there's a cash out, like, there's mostly no reason 691 00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 2: to do that in the book wants you to. If 692 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 2: you've got a five dollars parlay, like Billy talked about, 693 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,080 Speaker 2: there's ten teams and nine are down. Even if you 694 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 2: don't have the full amount to hedge hedging on the 695 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,720 Speaker 2: other side to guarantee yourself a two hundred and three 696 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 2: hundred dollars profit or whatever it ends up being, I 697 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 2: think it's sometimes worth it, especially if you don't have 698 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 2: that money in your account and you're kind of just 699 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,200 Speaker 2: flying by. Like if you ten teams, last team is 700 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 2: Sunday night football, so you've given yourself, like your last 701 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 2: game out, I think it's fine to do the other 702 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,479 Speaker 2: side of it. I think what Billy said is really important, 703 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,120 Speaker 2: which is the cash out is almost always going to 704 00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 2: be cut. You know, if a team is thirty to one, 705 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 2: you're not getting thirty to one on the cash out. 706 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 2: So they want you to click the button. But sometimes 707 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 2: it's smart to click the button if you've got money 708 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 2: in other places, or you can you know, bet the 709 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,440 Speaker 2: other side, or bet that side again at a certain price. 710 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 2: So to me, bankroll management understanding the odds, and you 711 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 2: talked about the live aspect. Live for me at least, 712 00:31:56,120 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 2: is a completely different bankroll, just like futures are live. 713 00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,840 Speaker 2: Single game to me are just three different areas, so 714 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:07,440 Speaker 2: I have no issue mixing areas. Like if I have 715 00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:09,720 Speaker 2: a bet with a cash out that's down to one game, 716 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 2: game starts, you know, I start to do some math 717 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 2: and figure out, well what am I waiting for? Is 718 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 2: it a certain line? Is it a certain number? But 719 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 2: just have a game plan and realize that the cash 720 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 2: out isn't always your friend, but it is it's not 721 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 2: an enemy either, right, It's something there is an asset, 722 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 2: So just make sure you know, you talk to a 723 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,640 Speaker 2: few other people and you know kind of get an 724 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 2: opinion to me that matters. 725 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 1: On a yearly basis. There's new states coming into the 726 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,760 Speaker 1: market with fully legalized online apps for sports betting, so 727 00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 1: there are always new betters coming into the market. So 728 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,400 Speaker 1: we'll close out this conversation with a single piece of advice, 729 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 1: both from you, Billy and you Evan. I'll get it 730 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: started here. One that I can tell you from being 731 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 1: on the other side of the transaction and seeing people 732 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 1: dig themselves a whole. There is human nature at play 733 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 1: when you are losing. To say, I just want the 734 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 1: better team. I will pay the premium, I don't care, 735 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 1: I will lay the points, I will lay the money line. 736 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 1: You get into bad habits of all of a sudden, 737 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 1: I really need to win this one. I'm just gonna 738 00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 1: go with the better team. You have to understand that's 739 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,800 Speaker 1: why the point spread exists. That's why the money line 740 00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 1: exists to be able to even it out. The sports 741 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,560 Speaker 1: book is always venturing to try to get into that 742 00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,360 Speaker 1: fifty to fifty category where they're making money and it's 743 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,040 Speaker 1: compelling on both sides of the market. So make sure 744 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,320 Speaker 1: that you understand that when you have those strong emotions 745 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 1: to say, I just want to get back to even 746 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,120 Speaker 1: I want to break out of this cold streak. Betting 747 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,600 Speaker 1: favorites is not always the way to go, particularly in 748 00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:39,959 Speaker 1: the NFL. If you want to make money, you're going 749 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 1: to have to hold your nose from time to time 750 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 1: and bet on these teams that your eyes are telling 751 00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,200 Speaker 1: you are not very good. There's a reason why some 752 00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 1: of these teams cover these numbers. There's a reason why 753 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 1: the buildings are so big in Vegas. They're built on 754 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:55,000 Speaker 1: making money in these cases, and these sportsbook can know 755 00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 1: what they're doing. So I just want to put that 756 00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,640 Speaker 1: out there for an audience heading into the fall. Evan, 757 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 1: what do you think in terms of one piece of 758 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 1: advice that you could give someone who's just looking to 759 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 1: be a bit sharper and a bit more confident when 760 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:05,840 Speaker 1: they're placing these bets. 761 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,759 Speaker 2: It's just two things. It's bankroll management. Whatever your bank 762 00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:10,600 Speaker 2: role is, make sure you stick to it, don't go 763 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 2: outside of it, don't let anything influence it. And shop. 764 00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:15,920 Speaker 2: I don't care who you are if you're betting five 765 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,840 Speaker 2: dollars a game or five thousand dollars a game, learning 766 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,759 Speaker 2: how to shop early will be good habits late. So 767 00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 2: when you are betting five dollars a game and hopefully 768 00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,160 Speaker 2: you start winning and that goes to fifty and five hundred, 769 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 2: you're still shopping and getting as many outs as possible. 770 00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,920 Speaker 2: It'll never be a bad thing to be able to 771 00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,480 Speaker 2: have as many options as possible. You don't have to 772 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,360 Speaker 2: place bets at a book for a day, a week, 773 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,439 Speaker 2: or a month, but having that option and being able 774 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,759 Speaker 2: to see, oh wow, I like the Dodgers tonight, and 775 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,200 Speaker 2: the Dodgers have the best price at this book. It's 776 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 2: always smart Billy. 777 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,200 Speaker 3: Any closing thoughts, Yeah, this kind of goes hand in 778 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 3: hand with Evans. But make sure you know the sign 779 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:56,880 Speaker 3: up offers, the bonuses, the rewards program, the VIP stuff, 780 00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,200 Speaker 3: all those things that all those books you offer, which 781 00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:00,840 Speaker 3: is another reason to sign up for as many a 782 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:04,319 Speaker 3: you can, because if you are line shopping and you know, 783 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:08,320 Speaker 3: following other people's advice, getting all the bonuses, all the promotions, 784 00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,759 Speaker 3: all those things offered, and saying within your bankroll, you 785 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,480 Speaker 3: could break even even not knowing anything about sports, right 786 00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 3: because there's enough out there if you can really maximize 787 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,800 Speaker 3: those things. It goes a long long way, especially with 788 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,239 Speaker 3: a smaller bankroll, towards keeping your head above water. So, 789 00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,520 Speaker 3: just like I've been saying with the line shopping, if 790 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,480 Speaker 3: two lines are the same at two different books, but 791 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 3: one is offering a promotion, that's something to factor in. 792 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,520 Speaker 3: It probably doesn't matter when you're betting three four figures 793 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 3: as a unit because the promotion is comparatively small, But 794 00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,080 Speaker 3: when you're just starting out, that makes a huge difference, 795 00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,319 Speaker 3: and you can do pretty well for yourself just maximizing 796 00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,680 Speaker 3: those as you're getting your feet wet and figuring out 797 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:43,799 Speaker 3: what's good bets and what's not. 798 00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 1: For Billy Ward and Evan Abrams on Mike Calbary's this 799 00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,319 Speaker 1: has been the Action Network podcast presented by BETTMGM. Thank 800 00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,040 Speaker 1: you so much for listening. We're wishing you the best 801 00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,759 Speaker 1: of luck headed into the fall, and a reminder it's 802 00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,200 Speaker 1: all about the tools and your tool set. Go ahead, 803 00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:01,000 Speaker 1: download the Action Network, the award winning app ahead and subscribe. 804 00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,200 Speaker 1: It's going to give you access to not only all 805 00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,319 Speaker 1: of our experts, but as we mentioned, some of those 806 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 1: alerts and tools that can help you follow line movement 807 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,120 Speaker 1: and steam and figure out how to get on the 808 00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,560 Speaker 1: right side of a winning bet. All right, that's it 809 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:17,840 Speaker 1: for us, Thank you so much for listening. Action Network 810 00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you 811 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty 812 00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,440 Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler