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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? They're running a gay, so smooth,

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Speaker 2: so sweet, splendid sixteing just glorious text pertuition. Guys, all

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Speaker 2: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your

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Speaker 2: beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The one.

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Speaker 2: It's left to the wide eyed, drilled pibus.

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Speaker 4: How old Earth pick that happens? Jesus Greenings and welcome

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Speaker 4: to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 4: My name is Michael Leeboff, and joining me as always

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Speaker 4: are my Action colleagues Anthony Dbundo and bj Cunningham, and

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Speaker 4: the three of us are psyched out of our chair

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Speaker 4: to handicap ten hopefully, hopefully ten Premier League matches coming

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Speaker 4: your way on Boxing Day. That's Sunday, December twenty sixth.

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Speaker 4: There's nine on Sunday and then one on Monday, and

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Speaker 4: it just will feel really good if we could just

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Speaker 4: get all ten of these matches across the line. Honestly, yeah,

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Speaker 4: winning some bets will be fun along the way. Boxing

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Speaker 4: Day is a date that all soccer fans circle on

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Speaker 4: their calendar, but most of all for Christmas and for

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Speaker 4: Boxing Day. It would be a Christmas miracle if we

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Speaker 4: can just get ten scheduled Premier League games across the

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Speaker 4: finish line and gentlemen, we'll start with the seven thirty

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Speaker 4: am kickoff with Liverpool their minus six point fifty hosting

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Speaker 4: Leeds United. They're fourteen to one. The draw is eight

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Speaker 4: to one. Liverpool, like a lot of other teams, have

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Speaker 4: been dented, their ranks have been dented considerably by COVID.

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Speaker 4: Leads also have had injury issues and COVID issues. So,

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Speaker 4: like with all these matches, we do ask you to

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Speaker 4: take our analysis with a great to salt, as things

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Speaker 4: can change between now when we're recording this on Wednesday

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Speaker 4: night and Sunday morning. But this game does seem pretty

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Speaker 4: straightforward bj right, Like we got Liverpool offensive force, leads,

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Speaker 4: defensive calamity, nine point seventy five expected goals and fourteen

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Speaker 4: goals against in their last three games leads United. So

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Speaker 4: is there any other way to play this match than

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Speaker 4: basically squaring out as Anthony liked to say, be Barney

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Speaker 4: at the bar and backing Liverpool on the alt line.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be really hard not to, Michael. I mean,

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Speaker 1: given how thin Leads is right now, this can get

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Speaker 1: out of hand very very quickly. At the time he's

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Speaker 1: taping this, Leads could potentially without Patrick Vamford, Calvin Phillips,

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Speaker 1: Liam Cooper, Diego Jorente, Daniel James and Rodrigo So going

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Speaker 1: up against the Liverpool offense that absolutely paced them in

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Speaker 1: the first meeting. They beat him three to nothing and

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Speaker 1: put him four point five expected goals. This is about

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Speaker 1: as bad as a situation as it can get for

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Speaker 1: Marcelo Bielsa and I really hope he survives, you know,

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Speaker 1: over the next few weeks, given all leads injury issues.

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Speaker 1: But it could be his swan song. We could see

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Speaker 1: him say goodbye, which would be very sad. But you know, Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure if they're gonna get vandyk, Curtis Jones,

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Speaker 1: the Ago and Fabienho back from COVID. I guess technically

60
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Speaker 1: is their tenth day on Sunday, so be on the

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Speaker 1: lookout for that, you know, if they are in the

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Speaker 1: in the game, it's going to be really really hard

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Speaker 1: not to square out and just take Liverpool. But I

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Speaker 1: will throw some caution because if those guys are out.

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Speaker 1: Liverpool's defense looked really shaky against Todd, them giving up

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Speaker 1: three point four expected goals, which is the most that

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Speaker 1: anybody's created on Liverpool this season, and actually nobody's created

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Speaker 1: over two expected goals on Liverpool, so it was actually

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Speaker 1: quite a shocking defensive performance. But with that being said,

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Speaker 1: Leeds really really struggles against teams that press them high

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Speaker 1: and press them at a very very high rate. Liverpool

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Speaker 1: is going to do that, so we could see it

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Speaker 1: potentially another seven zero like we saw them against Manchester City. Also,

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Speaker 1: with the Africa Cup of Nations coming up, Liverpool is

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Speaker 1: going to want to get as many goals in as

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Speaker 1: they can from Sala and money that they're going to

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Speaker 1: be out without them for about a month. So I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of looking at the over here. I have three

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Speaker 1: point nine goals projected for this game, so if over

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Speaker 1: four goals can get to plus one fifteen or plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty, I'll probably end up playing that. But other

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Speaker 1: than that, to stay away from me.

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Speaker 4: So Bundesliga total right there, I would say Leeds United

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Speaker 4: probably the bravest bet on the board one could make

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Speaker 4: this week, Anthony, and.

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Speaker 3: Look at you, yeah you know. I mean, look, I'm

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Speaker 3: not saying that I like them, but at a certain

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Speaker 3: point catching two and a half against anybody, I'd be

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Speaker 3: tempted to play leads here. I understand that the injury

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Speaker 3: crisis is real. I mean they're borderline unbedable at this point,

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Speaker 3: but it does look like Van Dyke, Thiago and Fabinho

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Speaker 3: are all going to be out and Robertson is suspended

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Speaker 3: for this, so you're looking at a pretty makeshift midfield

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Speaker 3: and a pretty makeshift back line that includes some backups. Now,

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Speaker 3: Liverpool played a very heavily rotated team in the Cup

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Speaker 3: Caraveou Cup match against Leicesterard on Wednesday, so I'm not

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Speaker 3: playing anything right now. I'm waiting until Sunday for this one.

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Speaker 3: We're going to figure out the status of BVVD, Thiago

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Speaker 3: and Fabinho, and if they're all out and still not

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Speaker 3: clear of protocols, then I'll be probably firing on some

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Speaker 3: plus two and a half. I understand in the bottom

102
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Speaker 3: seems to be falling out for leads here, but Liverpool

103
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Speaker 3: just doesn't have the solidity or the ability to overwhelm

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Speaker 3: teams without some of their best defenders and midfielders, so

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Speaker 3: I think they can keep this somewhat competitive. But I mean,

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Speaker 3: in terms of the matchup, it's really bad for Leeds.

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Speaker 3: And Liverpool was minus one thirty five on the road.

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Speaker 3: Now they're minus six seventy at home in this pixture.

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Speaker 3: So obviously there's a whole lot more going on here

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Speaker 3: than just home and away. And you know, the teams

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Speaker 3: have trended in opposite direction since that game, which was

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Speaker 3: back in October, but have they really changed that much?

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Speaker 3: I'm not so sure, so I lean towards leads at

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Speaker 3: two and a half, but again I have to wait

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Speaker 3: and see what the status of some of these defenders

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Speaker 3: is going to be.

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Speaker 4: There's another seven thirty am kickoff on Boxing Day and

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Speaker 4: that is Wolverhampton. Their odds on minus one ten minus

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Speaker 4: one fifteen depending on where you look, hosting Watford plus

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Speaker 4: three forty on the money line, the draws plus two

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Speaker 4: sixty watch for four losses in a row and just

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Speaker 4: like Leeds, they are incredibly leaky on defense right now

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Speaker 4: under Claudio Rinieri. That's nine games since he's been in charge,

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Speaker 4: nineteen point five expected goals allowed. That's about two point

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Speaker 4: one seven on average.

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Speaker 1: This Wolve's team.

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Speaker 4: Their offense started pretty decently, there's a lot of talent

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Speaker 4: in its ranks. Then it seemed like there are some

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Speaker 4: process issues creating consistent chances finishing those chances when they

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Speaker 4: did create them. But this is the type of defense

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Speaker 4: where it's a get right spot. I think for Wolves

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Speaker 4: and this offense, they still are sixth in big scoring

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Speaker 4: chances created, but oddly enough seventeenth in non penalty expected

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Speaker 4: goals created per ninety But I do think that the

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Speaker 4: matchup is right right, like this is a strong defense

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Speaker 4: for Wolverhampton that can handle Watford's surprisingly potent When I

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Speaker 4: say that, I mean relative to Watford's expectations offense. So

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Speaker 4: I think the defense can handle the offense, and this

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Speaker 4: toothless of late offense for Wolves should be able to

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Speaker 4: find a way past a defense instead is just bleeding

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Speaker 4: scoring chances. So I think Wolves at minus one ten

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Speaker 4: minus one fifteen that's the fine price. I would maybe

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Speaker 4: go up to minus one twenty on the team from

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Speaker 4: the Black Country, Bruno Lage's men. So I'm going to

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Speaker 4: take Wolves here. I got them in at minus one fifteen. Anthony,

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Speaker 4: I think you're coming.

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Speaker 3: With me, Yeah, I am, And this is just a

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Speaker 3: classic by lo Here. I mean, look, Wolves have been

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Speaker 3: awful an attack. They've created about four expected goals in

150
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Speaker 3: their last eight matches, four point four. They've only scored

151
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Speaker 3: twice in those eight matches, But you have to go

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Speaker 3: back and look at who they've played. Only two of

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Speaker 3: those games were against teams who would be considered below

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Speaker 3: average defenses. They had a one to zero win against

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Speaker 3: west Ham, two scoreless draws with no rich and Burnley.

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Speaker 3: That were the first troubling signs of kind of regression

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Speaker 3: for Wolves and them not you know, attacking nearly as well.

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Speaker 3: Then they played Liverpool City, Brighton and Chelsea who I

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Speaker 3: think are for of the top six or seven defenses

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Speaker 3: in the league. And so yeah, they didn't create a

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Speaker 3: ton in those games, but those were situations where they

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Speaker 3: were not in a situation you know. Against Liverpool they

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Speaker 3: they were tied trying to defend that point away from

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Speaker 3: home for the entire match to the ninety fourth minute.

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Speaker 3: Against City they were again trying to play for the

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Speaker 3: point and then got a red card. Didn't really have

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Speaker 3: a chance to attack and against Chelsea again got a

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Speaker 3: good point against the top three teams, so in game

169
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Speaker 3: state didn't really have them in a situation where they

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Speaker 3: needed to go out and try to create a ton

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Speaker 3: of chances and play expansive. I think we're going to

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Speaker 3: get a good gut right spot here for Wolves against Watford,

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Speaker 3: who will be without a Schmi Lasar who's one of

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Speaker 3: their best attackers. He's going to be out for a

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Speaker 3: few more weeks. It looks like in sixteen days without

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Speaker 3: games for Watford. Now, I'm not really sure how to

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Speaker 3: handle this coming off the COVID pause. Watford didn't actually

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Speaker 3: have a ton of COVID issues, but not playing a

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Speaker 3: game for sixteen days ken have an impact on kind

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Speaker 3: of match fitness for a team. So I'm wondering if

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Speaker 3: maybe Watford's goes a little bit off the pace here.

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Speaker 3: And so I agree with with Michael. I have a

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Speaker 3: little bit of value on Wolves. I have the minus

184
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Speaker 3: one thirty, so I like them at minus one, ten,

185
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Speaker 3: one fifteen. Both of those are out there pretty widely available,

186
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Speaker 3: so that's where I played this one.

187
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it is. There are a bunch of teams and

188
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Speaker 4: we'll get to them later in the show, who've had long,

189
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Speaker 4: long layoffs, and I think some of them just like, yeah,

190
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Speaker 4: the talent will win out, But this Watford team, I

191
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Speaker 4: don't think so. BJ, what do you see for this

192
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Speaker 4: one aside of total anywhere you're.

193
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Speaker 1: Going, Yeah, I'm kind of looking at both teams to

194
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Speaker 1: score no if it gets to anything plus money. I'm

195
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Speaker 1: just really tired of trying to bet on when the

196
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Speaker 1: Wolves offense is going to wake up. I mean, this

197
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Speaker 1: is obviously, like you know, Anthony and you and Michael

198
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Speaker 1: have mentioned, this is probably as good opportunity as they've

199
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Speaker 1: had in a long time. But at the same time,

200
00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:34,040
Speaker 1: you know, three expected goals in their last six matches.

201
00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:36,520
Speaker 1: They've only scored eight goals this season from open play,

202
00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:39,320
Speaker 1: which is the second worse than I really, behind only Norwich.

203
00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,559
Speaker 1: Those are really really concerning numbers. I understand they have

204
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Speaker 1: the talent, but I'm just really tired of trying to

205
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Speaker 1: figure out when they're going to wake up. So, you know,

206
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Speaker 1: this is one of those situations that I don't really

207
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Speaker 1: see how Watford is going to get on the board

208
00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,199
Speaker 1: without Sar. You know, when these two teams met back

209
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Speaker 1: in September, Wells completely dominated Watford, you know, one two,

210
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Speaker 1: not thing one unexpected goals two point one to point two.

211
00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,480
Speaker 1: Watford only had six shots, so I think we could

212
00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,839
Speaker 1: see potentially another dominance performance like that. Again, I do

213
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,520
Speaker 1: need plus money for the both team to score, no bet,

214
00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,240
Speaker 1: but I'm just really tired of trying to figure out

215
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Speaker 1: when Wolves is gonna wake up offensively, So it's kind

216
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Speaker 1: of a wait and see for me on them before

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Speaker 1: I start to bet them on the money line.

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Speaker 3: That's eight straight unders for Wolves, three goals draws, won,

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Speaker 3: four one nail games, and one two nil defeat, so

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Speaker 3: it's eight hunders in a row. I think I've had

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Speaker 3: overs in like three of those games.

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Speaker 1: So I just looked and zero zero draws ten to one,

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Speaker 1: So I might might have to dabble on that for

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Speaker 1: this match.

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Speaker 3: Happy Boxing Day.

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Speaker 4: You guys might not remember this, but someone when we

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Speaker 4: had a preseason remember a preview, someone famously on this

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Speaker 4: podcast said that Wolves would be a good over team

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Speaker 4: for the season because last year they were an under

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Speaker 4: team and I thought the talent, the offensive talent would

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Speaker 4: spark some some goals scoring, and I was wrong.

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Speaker 3: Early in the year they should have been an overteam. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean a lot of their games had a ton

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Speaker 3: of chances, they just weren't taking them, And now they're

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Speaker 3: just not doing anything. So maybe Bruno got tired of

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Speaker 3: extra under performance and then changed up the tactics a

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Speaker 3: little bit. But Wolves don't seem to be taking as

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Speaker 3: many chances, don't seem to be doing quite as much.

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Speaker 3: But it also could just be the schedule. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they are playing better defenses now, and they were playing

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Speaker 3: bad defenses early in the year, but now they get

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Speaker 3: the worst defense in the league.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there was a time when Wolves were the new

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Speaker 4: Brighton a team that doesn't really have trouble scoring, nor

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Speaker 4: do they have trouble preventing their opponents from scoring. That's

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Speaker 4: Manchester City minus five hundred taking on Less. They're twelve

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Speaker 4: to one on the money line, the draws seven to one.

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Speaker 4: Manchester City minus two and a half is plus one

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Speaker 4: forty five. That meets book makers are implying a forty

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Speaker 4: point eight percent implied probability that City wins this game

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Speaker 4: by three goals. Okay, this is a good team they're

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Speaker 4: playing like that's the crazy part, Like they're not. This

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Speaker 4: isn't them taking on Newcastle or Watford this is Leicester

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Speaker 4: City and that number I think is a little absurd. However,

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Speaker 4: it's tough to get behind this lesser team in this matchup.

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Speaker 4: They are two leaky on defense, thirteen in preventing non

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Speaker 4: penalty expected goals, seventh in big chance. Just a little

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Speaker 4: bit better there, but still a squarely mid table defense.

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Speaker 4: Against a City offense, it's firing on all cylinders. And

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Speaker 4: we all have talked at nauseum about the City defense

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Speaker 4: and their ability to just snuff out opponents unless there

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Speaker 4: is a good offensive team. So tough match up here

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Speaker 4: for the Foxes. I'm staying away. BJ.

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Speaker 1: You do have a BTTs to talk about, though, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go both teams to score no again. With City,

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Speaker 1: I mean they're defensive numbers. They're playing exactly like they

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Speaker 1: were around this time. It was an round January, I

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Speaker 1: guess last year when they started to really put the

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Speaker 1: clamps down defensively. But since the two zero loss at

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Speaker 1: home to Crystal Palace, they have allowed three point five

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Speaker 1: expected goals in eight matches and since that loss they've

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Speaker 1: outscored their opponents twenty four to three. So they're just

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Speaker 1: playing like the best team in the world, right now

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Speaker 1: they're starting to take kind of a stranglehold on the

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Speaker 1: Premier League title race with Liverpool kind of slipping up

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Speaker 1: with some other injuries. This is another situation. I understand

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Speaker 1: Lester has a lot of attacking talent, They're relatively healthy

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Speaker 1: with that attacking talent, but I just don't see a

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Speaker 1: situation where they're going to be able to create anything

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Speaker 1: of high quality against Manchester City, who is now becoming

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Speaker 1: a you know, the possession dominant side that we saw

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Speaker 1: last year and you know, since that loss to the

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Speaker 1: Crystal Palace, it held over sixty four percent possession in

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Speaker 1: every single Premier League match. So they're gonna be able

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Speaker 1: to hold the ball. They're going to prevent Leicester from

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Speaker 1: really creating any chances because Cities only allowing their opponents

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Speaker 1: to only six point four shots per ninety minutes, which

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Speaker 1: is the best mark in the world among you know,

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Speaker 1: Europe's top five leagues. You know, Lester does have good

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Speaker 1: offensive numbers one point four to seven non penalty expected

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Speaker 1: goals per match, but against Chelsea Wolves, west Ham, Brentford

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Speaker 1: and their first match against Manchester City, which are all

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Speaker 1: top seven defenses by non penalty expected goals, they only

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Speaker 1: created four point three expected goals in those five matches,

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Speaker 1: so I have the ball team to score. No line

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Speaker 1: projected at minus one ninety, so I love the value

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Speaker 1: at minus one thirty.

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Speaker 4: Citi's minus three hundred now to win the title. Liverpool

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Speaker 4: three to one, Chelsea eleven to one. Manchester City has

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Speaker 4: a three point lead over Liverpool after they dropped points

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Speaker 4: to Anthony Spurs, who we will now talk about one

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Speaker 4: thirty home favorites taken on Crystal Palace, who were plus

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Speaker 4: three eighty on the money line the draws plus two

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Speaker 4: eighty a ten am kickoff on Boxing Day, Anthony, I'm

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Speaker 4: just gonna let you start here as the Tottenham tragic

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Speaker 4: on the show. I think you're gonna be on one

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Speaker 4: side of this match and be J and I will

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Speaker 4: be on the others. So let's go. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: You know, if you're a narrative guy, uh, Sunday was

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Speaker 3: just a perfect game because Harry Kane had his best

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Speaker 3: game in terms of shot creation and shot assisting that

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Speaker 3: he's had all season. He had one point nine expected

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Speaker 3: goals against Liverpool. He only scored one of them, though

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Speaker 3: he missed two sitters. So if you were a take

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Speaker 3: har on the Twitter timelines. Maybe you could say he's

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Speaker 3: washed and look he can't finish anymore. But as someone

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Speaker 3: who watches Tottenham weekend and week out, him Deli Ali

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Speaker 3: and him and Son together makes this team so much

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Speaker 3: better if Ali is in good form, because he adds

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Speaker 3: another third shot getter to this team. He's a guy

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Speaker 3: who can get assists, who can get goals. He had

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Speaker 3: one point two expected goals expected assist combined on Sunday,

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Speaker 3: a lot of pressures, three successful dribbles. He does a

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Speaker 3: lot of defensive work for a forward of his type.

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Speaker 3: He's kind of a weird hybrid kind of player. And

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Speaker 3: since Conte took over in North London, only three teams

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Speaker 3: have a better expected goal difference per ninety. Spurs are

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Speaker 3: about plus one per ninety. Only the Big three have

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Speaker 3: been better, and in terms of creating chances, only City

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Speaker 3: and Liverpool have created more chances since Kante took over

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Speaker 3: in North London. So the clear signs of everybody playing better,

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Speaker 3: even players I don't like, Eric Dyer, Harry Winks players

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Speaker 3: noticeably been against in my last few years of Tottenham fandom.

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Speaker 3: They've really improved quite a bit. Harry Winks four progressive

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Speaker 3: passing in the penalty area against Liverpool, second highest mark

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Speaker 3: of his career. So there's a lot of really positive

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Speaker 3: signs for Spurs, but the line's clearly reflecting that. So

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Speaker 3: I lean towards Tottenham here. I need a better number

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Speaker 3: than minus one thirty to play it. If it gets

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Speaker 3: below minus one twenty, then I'd fire on Spurs. I

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Speaker 3: may look to get in live, but right now I'm

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Speaker 3: I'm going to end up passing. Palace is a pretty

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Speaker 3: good side. They thrashed Spurs the first time I met,

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Speaker 3: as we will be a different team. Spurs were coming

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Speaker 3: off with the national break, they had a bunch of

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Speaker 3: players out, they were on the road, and that was

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Speaker 3: the new No Era. No team has run more than

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Speaker 3: Tottenham in the last month and a half too, since

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Speaker 3: Conte took over. So there's just a ton of really

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Speaker 3: positive signs for Spurs. But again, we play numbers here

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Speaker 3: and the number is not good enough yet for me

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Speaker 3: to get in. So I'm probably getting into playing this

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Speaker 3: one live. I do think Spurs win this at home.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you're kind of making my argument for me here.

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Speaker 4: I think the numbers a little too high on a

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Speaker 4: team that Yeah, they did look good against a Liverpool

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Speaker 4: team that was missing a lot of important pieces, especially

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Speaker 4: in the midfield and in their spying. But this Palace

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Speaker 4: team second and big chance is allowed, third, did not

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Speaker 4: penalty expected goals allowed. Their only weakness is defending against crosses.

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Speaker 4: Spurs isn't a type team to exploit that. And I

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Speaker 4: think it's a good cell high spot on a team

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Speaker 4: that has played one Careier League match since December fifth.

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Speaker 4: And maybe the signs are there, but we truly don't

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Speaker 4: know just how good the Spurs team is. And this

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Speaker 4: is just it seems like a classic cell high spot

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Speaker 4: and you're getting a good team at a at a

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Speaker 4: good number to go against an inflated team. I think,

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Speaker 4: BJ what do you see for this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I like Christal Palace plus half a goal, but it's

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Speaker 1: got to be plus one fifteen or better. I understand

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Speaker 1: that under Conte Tottenham has created, you know, the fourth

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Speaker 1: most chances in the Premier League, but they actually haven't

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Speaker 1: played that much for Murders Road in terms of schedule,

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Speaker 1: injury riddle, Leverton squad, Brentford, Norwich Leeds and then Liverpool

377
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Speaker 1: without Van Dyke, Fabinho, Thiago and a bunch of other guys.

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Speaker 1: So going against Crystal Palace defense, that's third and non

379
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Speaker 1: penalty expected goals. Who's going to get one of their

380
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Speaker 1: best center backs, Jockey Anderson back from injury this week

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Speaker 1: playing alongside Mark g When those two play together, Chris

382
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Speaker 1: Palace is only allowing one point zero three expected goals

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Speaker 1: per match, so very good, well organized defensive side that

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Speaker 1: does press at a pretty high rate usually in their

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Speaker 1: own you know, final third in the middle of the pitch.

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Speaker 1: Well was concerning, you know, obviously, you know there's not

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Speaker 1: much concern when Todham creates, you know, three point four

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Speaker 1: expected goals against Liverpool, but Liverpool did have a forty

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Speaker 1: six percent successful pressure rate and Krystal Palace presses at

390
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Speaker 1: the second highest rate in the Premier League, so they

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Speaker 1: could be able to win the ball against tot Ham

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Speaker 1: in the middlefield and you know, try to hit him

393
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Speaker 1: on the counter because they do have some lethal attacking

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Speaker 1: players now that can exploit them. I understand Tottenham, you know,

395
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Speaker 1: was not playing for quite a while, but you know

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Speaker 1: this is their third match in seven days, so we'll

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Speaker 1: see how how the legs are. We'll see, you know,

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Speaker 1: I understand they're running more, but we'll see how if

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Speaker 1: they their legs are still good. But the third match

400
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Speaker 1: in seven days, so again I need you know, I

401
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 1: like Chris Palace plus half a goal, but I do

402
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Speaker 1: need plus one fifteen or better to bet it because

403
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Speaker 1: I have Toddenham projected at even money for this one.

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Speaker 1: So give me the Eagles plus half a goal at

405
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Speaker 1: plus one fifteen.

406
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Speaker 4: We'll stay in London where west Ham will host Southampton.

407
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Speaker 4: The Hammers minus won ten home favorites Southampton plus three forty.

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Speaker 4: They draw up plus two eighty another ten am kickoff

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Speaker 4: on Sunday morning. I like to overhear. I think this

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Speaker 4: game sets up pretty well for there to be a

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Speaker 4: crooked number on the scoreboard. West Ham offense fourth in

412
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Speaker 4: big chances created, Southampton eighteenth in preventing them, and west

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Speaker 4: Ham which was they were going pretty well under David Moys.

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Speaker 4: Third of the season they went against Liverpool and then

415
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Speaker 4: six matches since then, when everyone including myself was crowning

416
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Speaker 4: them as a potential gate crasher in the Premier League,

417
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Speaker 4: they've gone one win, two draws, three losses and have

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Speaker 4: allowed ten point zero three spectacles against a lot of

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Speaker 4: that has to do with Agbana going out. So I

420
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Speaker 4: think that you're looking at a big picture leaky defense

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Speaker 4: and then another defense that is trending in that direction

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Speaker 4: right now. So I like over three. You're getting plus

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Speaker 4: money on it, plus one twenty five right now. As

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Speaker 4: long as there's a plus sign in front of it,

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Speaker 4: I think it's a good bet because I could see

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Speaker 4: this one being three to one, three to two, et cetera. Anthony,

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Speaker 4: what do you have for this one?

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Speaker 3: I like the Saints plus a half minus one ten

429
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Speaker 3: out there right now. I'm just not really buying this

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Speaker 3: west Ham team anymore. And I understand they played really

431
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Speaker 3: well at the beginning of the season. We've talked about this.

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Speaker 3: They were playing much better. They were possessing the ball,

433
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,760
Speaker 3: pressing well, playing like a team that looked like a

434
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 3: genuine Top Ford contender. But they've looked less and less

435
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 3: like that the last six hundred or so minutes. Last

436
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 3: six hundred and six minutes, which is about seven matches

437
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 3: they played at even strength, they have created about point

438
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:05,160
Speaker 3: nine xg per ninety and they've allowed one point five

439
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 3: to five. And then in terms of actually allowing goals,

440
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,879
Speaker 3: they've only allowed about one point three per ninety, so

441
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:14,399
Speaker 3: they have been a bit fortunate defensively lately over the

442
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 3: course of the season. Twenty eight goals for west Ham

443
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,120
Speaker 3: pretty impressive mark, but only twenty two expected, so they've

444
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,640
Speaker 3: been running a little bit ahead of that. Mckil antonio

445
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 3: seems like, he said, a bit of a rough patch

446
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 3: of form. He's not quite getting the numbers in terms

447
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 3: of shots per ninety that he was getting earlier in

448
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 3: the season. Part of this comes down to schedule. They

449
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 3: had a few tough matches in there, but really they've

450
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,680
Speaker 3: been winning the tough matches. It's been the games against Burnley,

451
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 3: you know, where they had a ni nil draw that

452
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 3: was very unimpressive. That really has kind of held this

453
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 3: team back a little bit. And then you know they

454
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 3: played in the League Cup today fifty eight percent of

455
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 3: the ball against Spurs, but never really looked threatening in

456
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,239
Speaker 3: the second half to try to find the equalizer. There

457
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 3: was a few chances, but it seemed to me that

458
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 3: they really struggled. And you can even compare it to

459
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,400
Speaker 3: when they played Tottenham earlier this year and I thought

460
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 3: they were the better side from the large portions of

461
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 3: it where they were able to control the game. They

462
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 3: had way less control of the game this time around,

463
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,200
Speaker 3: so I think it's a pretty damning indictment of what's

464
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,479
Speaker 3: happened to This team got absolutely thrashed by Arsenal, couldn't

465
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,440
Speaker 3: create much against Burnley, so I'm starting to have some

466
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 3: concerns and I think they're a little inflated here over

467
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 3: the last six hundred minutes. Like I mentioned, west Ham

468
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 3: in terms of XG difference sixth worst. We look at

469
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 3: Southampton about tenth best, so they're about average. Well that's

470
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 3: about what Southampton is. They've had some bad luck defensively

471
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 3: one point four expect the goals allowed per ninety they've

472
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 3: actually conceded closer to two, so there's some defensive boost

473
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 3: coming for Southampton. Most importantly, it looks like Fraser Foster

474
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 3: might be back here, which means no more Willy Caballero

475
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 3: and net which is pretty important for the Saints because

476
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 3: of how bad caviiro is it claiming crosses and whatnot.

477
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 3: So Southampton has some regression coming and I think this

478
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 3: is a good spot for them, even on the road,

479
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 3: and I think when we get later on, I'm going

480
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 3: to have maybe a little money line sprinkle coming on

481
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 3: them as Well.

482
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 4: Now to the game of the weekend. Burnley plus one

483
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 4: forty hosting the mighty Everton Toffees plus two twenty on

484
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 4: the money line the draws plus two twenty another ten

485
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 4: am kickoff for your Boxing Day feast. This is gonna

486
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,879
Speaker 4: be a funny one. I'm in the weeds with Everton

487
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 4: obviously as a fan, so I know who Lewis Dobbin

488
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 4: or Jared Branthwaite are in Elis sims.

489
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 1: But if you looked at that.

490
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 3: Everton line, I didn't know they were.

491
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, not a lot of when they play.

492
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 4: There were a lot of tweets from soccer writers that

493
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 4: I follow asking if the Everton kitman spelled breath right,

494
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 4: weight wrong, because there's an end for Jared Branthwait he

495
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 4: ends up scoring in a heroic one Yeah, in a

496
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 4: heroic one one draw where they lost the XG battle

497
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 4: by over two goals, And uh yeah, I mean that's

498
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 4: all you can say about everytton right now. Right They're

499
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 4: extremely thin and they're getting results by basically whether or

500
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 4: not they decide to throw everything they have in front

501
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 4: of the ball on defense or they don't. Against Chelsea,

502
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 4: they got very lucky to get a point. I think

503
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 4: they would be pretty lucky to get a point out

504
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 4: of this one in Burnley at turf More. But there

505
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 4: are some concerns with the Clarits right now. First of all,

506
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 4: they've played the fewest games in the Premier League. They

507
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 4: played one game since December fourth, I believe, and they

508
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 4: have no goals and one point three five total expected

509
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 4: goals in their last three matches. However, I think this

510
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 4: is a good matchup for him. Everton have been terrible

511
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,640
Speaker 4: defending set pieces this season, have allowed five point three

512
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 4: total expected goals in their last two matches. So this

513
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 4: Burnley offense, like this is not an offense that will

514
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 4: strike fear in you, but this is as good of

515
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 4: get right spot as this offense will see. We saw

516
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 4: in the reverse fixture of this one that Burnley was

517
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 4: a little unlucky to lose to Everton in what was

518
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 4: one of the strangest matches of the season, where Everton

519
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,160
Speaker 4: had eight great minutes and scored three goals in those

520
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 4: eight minutes. I like Burnley. I think plus one forty

521
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 4: at home and two teams that they're rightful to be

522
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 4: favorites here against this team that Ralpha Benitos is going

523
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 4: to have to be forced to throw out there. So

524
00:23:58,400 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 4: I don't think there's any way you can look at

525
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 4: ever Dien at this price. If it's shot up immensely,

526
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 4: maybe you can get people interested, but not right here.

527
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 4: So plus one forty and Burnley, I think is a

528
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 4: fine number against the Everton defense that is struggling to

529
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 4: prevent scoring chances right now, BJ, what do you see

530
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 4: for this one?

531
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: I think the only there's no in between this one.

532
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 1: Is there gonna be a just a zero zero snoozer

533
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 1: or like a six goal thriller. I don't think we

534
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 1: have really any in between with these two teams. Dominy

535
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 1: Calvert Luhn has been upgraded to questionable for this one,

536
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: so that's positive news for Everton, but the rest of

537
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 1: their attackers are out. Damari Gray with Charleson Andres Townsend,

538
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 1: Solomon Rondon are all out for this match. So if

539
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 1: all those guys are out and Dominie Calvert Luhn is

540
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: not fit enough to play, I just don't really see

541
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: how Everton's going to get on the board here. And

542
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 1: I understand Burnley's defense has been pretty horrendous, you know,

543
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 1: one point four to eight expecting goals per match, which

544
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,919
Speaker 1: is pretty bad when you play a pretty defensive four

545
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 1: to four to two. But you know Everton defensively as well,

546
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 1: still without Urimena, which is very important for them because

547
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 1: they have no center back depth whatsoever. So I mean

548
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be Mason Holegate, give Ben Godfried slotting

549
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 1: in there beside Michael Keane. When Urimine is out, Everton's

550
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 1: allowing one point sixty five expected goals for match. When

551
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: he's in the lineup, they only allow one point one two,

552
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 1: so he's kind of important for their defensive structure. Burnley

553
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: will also likely beginning Maxwell Corney back. He's huge for

554
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 1: their offense, providing a lot of pace and technical ability

555
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 1: going forward. We already mentioned in Michael Everton's one of

556
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: the worst teams in the Premier League and defending crosses,

557
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 1: defending corners their second to last in the Premier League

558
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: in aerial duels one percentage, while Burnley's fourth in the

559
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: Premier League and winning aerial duels. If Dominic Calvert ruins out,

560
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 1: I don't see how Everton's going to score. So you

561
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: can get Burnley to win in a shutout or Burley

562
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: to win nil at plus two to seventy right now.

563
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: So that's where I'm going for this one. I think

564
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: that's a great price going up, you know, with Everton

565
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 1: having nobody offensively or you know, some creative player names

566
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 1: up there. So Burley to win nil plus two to

567
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: seventy is where I'm going.

568
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, only nor acsu me. Only Newcastle has a worst

569
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 3: expected goal difference in the last month and a half

570
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 3: than Everton. Burnley has the third worst. We're dealing with

571
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 3: the bad of the bad. Burnley has been quite lucky

572
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 3: defensively the last month or so, one point six expected

573
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 3: goals allowed per ninety in that stretch, only allowed a

574
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 3: battle goal per ninety. So maybe Everton can expose that,

575
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 3: but I really don't want to do that with that

576
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 3: talent that's going to be rolling out there for Everton.

577
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 3: Even if Calvert Lewin does play. You know, he's very

578
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 3: good in the air, winning crosses, but who's sending in

579
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 3: the crosses, who's beating the man up the wing? So

580
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 3: there's no way exactly he's not going to be fully fit.

581
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 3: I actually do think he will feature in this game,

582
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 3: and some some sort it's trending that way. Roephens said

583
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 3: he was close a week and a half ago, so

584
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 3: maybe we can or a week ago, but it'll be

585
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 3: a week and a half once this game's played, so

586
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 3: maybe we see him. But one man does not make

587
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 3: an attack. So no matter how the passing here, no.

588
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 4: Matter how hands it he is.

589
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 3: Yeah.

590
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 1: Everton, since that you know, eight minutes spurt when they

591
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: beat Burnley on no or sorry September thirteenth, they have

592
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 1: two wins since that point, a two zero win against

593
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: Norwich and a two to one per Roboquin over my gunners.

594
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 4: So should have been four one. Yeah, you don't have

595
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 4: to tell me about that. Yeah, Burnley, I think the

596
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 4: number is good. And Sean Ditsch think these spots too,

597
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 4: Like he does find a way to get his team.

598
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 4: He targets games that he knows he needs three points.

599
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 4: I would consider this one to be an immense game

600
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 4: for them because this is a very very winnable game

601
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 4: against a depleted squad, one that when this fixture list

602
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 4: comes out to start the season, you don't quite think that.

603
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 4: But with the way that things have broken, Corney coming back,

604
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 4: Everdent being depleted, it certainly is a terrific spot I

605
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 4: think for Burnley at a great number and a team

606
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 4: that I think is usually a little undervalued because people

607
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 4: don't like betting on them, and well they're not quite good.

608
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: So we'll move from turf More to the Midlands to

609
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 4: talk about aston Villa plus four to seventy five at

610
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 4: home hosting Chelsea in the middle of a rough patch

611
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 4: right now. Chelsea's minus won forty five on the money line.

612
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 4: The draws plus two sixty five twelve thirty pm kickoff

613
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 4: on Boxing Day. Stephen Gerrard six point twenty five expected

614
00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 4: goals for six point seven to six expected goals against

615
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 4: in his six games, which is an improvement over what

616
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 4: they were looking at under Dean Smith. That's aston Villa

617
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 4: and look like this is a team that is going

618
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,399
Speaker 4: to defend like hell in the box for Gerard and

619
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 4: hopefully hit Chelsea on the counter with Ali Watkins. They've

620
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 4: had some success doing that so far under their new manager.

621
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 4: And who's going to be playing for Chelsea. We're not

622
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 4: totally sure either. They really had a rough go of

623
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 4: it with COVID and injury issues. Thomas Tookle wanted to

624
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 4: have their games postponed.

625
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 3: They didn't.

626
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 4: It's a legitimate wobble from Chelsea. They are starting to

627
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 4: fall back a little bit from the title race. There

628
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 4: now six points behind Manchester City and like I said,

629
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 4: City minus three hundred, Liverpool plus three hundred and Chelsea

630
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 4: now a clear outsider in the race at eleven to one.

631
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 4: I still think you know you're getting it maybe at

632
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 4: a tough spot in terms of buying low, Like this

633
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 4: is a not a spot where I like you want

634
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 4: to call this a cell high spot on Chelsea. This

635
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 4: is definitely a spot where people probably would want to

636
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 4: buy low because they've been struggling. But I still think

637
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 4: close to five to one to go against them is

638
00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 4: too tempting with the way that they're trending right now

639
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 4: and the fact that their lineup could look a little decimated.

640
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 4: So give me Aston Villa here at home. I'll just

641
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 4: keep going with Stephen Girard for the time being, Anthony,

642
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 4: what do you have for this one?

643
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, Chelsea's got Liverpool at home coming up.

644
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 3: We'll see what the line ends up being for that game.

645
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 3: That might be the time to buy a low on

646
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: the Blues, especially with Liverpool heading towards the No solemone

647
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 3: era for a few matches. Not sure that one will

648
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 3: be impacted. We'll get there when we get there, But

649
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 3: as far as this match goes, Thomas Tookle hinted today

650
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 3: that they may get some of their guys back in

651
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 3: training in his postmatch interview after their thrilling to no

652
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,239
Speaker 3: victory against Brentford that featured a ton of backups, an

653
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 3: own goal and a penalty. But as of right now, Lukaku, Werner, Havertz, Kalum, Hudson,

654
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 3: ADOI all out with COVID right now, going to be

655
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 3: very hard to back to Chelsea at this number given

656
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 3: that situation. The number in this game when Chelsea played

657
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 3: at Wolves on Sunday with pretty much all those guys

658
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 3: also out, was it closed around minus one twenty five.

659
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 3: They're minus one fifty here against what I think is

660
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 3: a better team in Aston Villa, who is in clearly

661
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 3: better form and who is showing to offer more going

662
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 3: forward than Wolves have recently. My numbers show value on Villa.

663
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 3: I will have a full write up on this game

664
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 3: that will be up on the website, probably Friday or Saturday,

665
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 3: depending on how that goes with Christmas. So you'd be

666
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 3: sure to read that full write up. But I'm going

667
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 3: to be waiting for more information here I'm definitely gonna

668
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 3: be end up leaning towards Villa and probably end up

669
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,719
Speaker 3: playing them, but I need some more information.

670
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 4: All right, We'll move on to North City. They're plus

671
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 4: six fifty hosting BJ's Arsenal Red Hot Arsenal Talk of

672
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 4: the Town their minus two forty, the Jewsts.

673
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: Plus three ninety.

674
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 4: A couple weeks ago, BJ said he was out out

675
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 4: give me a new manager. I'm done with mckel arteta.

676
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 4: And usually that is when Arsenal fans do that. There

677
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 4: should be a flair sent up in the betting universe

678
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 4: to start betting on at Arsenal, because as soon as

679
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 4: everyone gives up on them, guess and they said in

680
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 4: the Godfather thought I was out, they pull you back.

681
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 4: In Arsenal fourth place in the Premier League Baby fourth

682
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 4: place thirty two points, four points ahead of West Ham,

683
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 4: Manchester United at twenty seven, Spurs twenty six, and Wolves

684
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 4: they're twenty five.

685
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 3: A lot of games in hand there, Yeah.

686
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 4: But still, I mean, you gotta you just gotta, you've got.

687
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 4: Don't let the don't let fax get in the way

688
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 4: of a good story here, Anthony. Let's let's let's rein

689
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 4: it in. I I mean there's no way I'm laying

690
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 4: anything with this Arsenal team. I still don't trust them,

691
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 4: but I will turn it over to you, Bjay, And

692
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 4: what do you think in this match from your gunners?

693
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: Well, the Arteta revolution is back on, baby, I mean,

694
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 1: or we're fully back in. I mean I never left.

695
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 1: You know, maybe I wobbled a little bit. You know,

696
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 1: I'm the type of fan that you know, I'm hard

697
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 1: on my managers, you know, I when they don't perform

698
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 1: the way I want them to, I want them gone.

699
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 1: I want them fired. You know, that's just to motivate them.

700
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 1: And what I did is I motivated mckel Arteta and

701
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 1: this Arsenal team. No granted they didn't play, you know,

702
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: the stiffest competition. They played depleted west ham Side, you know,

703
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 1: obviously playing leads with basically nobody at the back. But

704
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 1: you know what, they took care of business. They did

705
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 1: what they were supposed to and this is another match

706
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 1: where they I hope at least they will be able

707
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: to take care of business. Now, every Arsenal fan knows

708
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: that when things are looking too good and they're playing

709
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: an inferior opponent, this is when they come in and

710
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 1: they just curb stomp all of your hopes and you know,

711
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 1: bring you back into that dark depression of why do

712
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: I even watch this team? Why do I even root

713
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 1: for them? But I'm starting to dream of, you know,

714
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 1: the Champions League Knights next year. And you know, our

715
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: attack looks really really good right now. I mean, we

716
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 1: don't really need Peer America bombiong anymore. We're probably gonna hopefully,

717
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 1: you know, get into the striker market, hopefully not Vlahovic.

718
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: But I mean the attack just looks fantastic right now.

719
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 1: Gabrielle and Ben Whide are as solid as they come

720
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 1: at the back. You know, Norwich has done nothing offensively

721
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: the year. They've scored five goals from open play. So

722
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: from a betting standpoint, is Arsenal overvalued absolutely. But at

723
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: the same time they're in incredible form, so there's no

724
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 1: way I'm going to step in front of them. I've

725
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: been betting against them too much and losing, so it's

726
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 1: not very fun. You know, you want to cheer for

727
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 1: your team scoring a goal, but then in the back

728
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 1: of your mind you're like, well, I just lost a

729
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 1: ton of money on them winning, so I'm going to

730
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 1: stay away from this one. I think it's a great

731
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,479
Speaker 1: spot for Arsenal. You know, if you want to get crazy,

732
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 1: maybe lay them minus two at a good plus number,

733
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: maybe that, But other than that, I'm staying away and

734
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: I'm holding and grab all three points and take even

735
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: a bigger lead for fourth place.

736
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 4: Man, it would be fun to go back and listen

737
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,239
Speaker 4: to the podcast right after Everton beat them.

738
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: We should get the clip, yeah, producer telling me put

739
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 1: that clip in either right before or right after, whatever makes.

740
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 4: More sense, Anthony, I'll turn it over to you now

741
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 4: that Pj's gone off into his Arsenal dreamland and is

742
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 4: envisioning them storming the gates for the top four. Tell

743
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 4: people up there who're looking to play some money on

744
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 4: this one where you think the best value is.

745
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 3: I hate Arsenal with every bone in my body, but

746
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 3: you know, I took some flak when I picked them

747
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 3: to finish sixth, and I stand by my prediction. People

748
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,239
Speaker 3: said I was too high on them, And then when

749
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 3: they started with econsecutive loss to begin the year, people

750
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 3: were like, oh, how could you say they're going to

751
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 3: finish six They're going to finish in the mid table.

752
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: Look they look like about the sixth best team in

753
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 3: the league maybe seven, and they've played like it the

754
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 3: last few weeks. Now, if you go back, remember Arteta

755
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 3: was back in and everybody was in on Arsenal. They

756
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 3: went to anfield everybody thought, oh, they're going to keep

757
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 3: it close to Liverpool. It lost four nil. Then they

758
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 3: had the United loss and the Everton loss. Everybody was

759
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 3: back out in Arteta. The beatings are coming because they

760
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 3: have a tricky matchup with Wolves next week, and then

761
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 3: they have City and then they have Tottenham away, so

762
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 3: they have some very tough matches coming. But this is

763
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 3: not the spot where I'm going to fade them and

764
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 3: fade their attack, which, as Bja said, has been significantly

765
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 3: improved since Martinelli has been inserted into the lineup and

766
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 3: since Lacazette, who seems to have a little more juice,

767
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 3: has replaced Obama Yang who looks cooked, so Sokka's playing better.

768
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 3: Martinelli has put more shots into this team and Lacazette

769
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 3: is bringing some life. So yes, Arsenal attack clearly trending up.

770
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 3: I understand it was west Ham leads in a very

771
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 3: favorable spot, but two point seven and three point two

772
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 3: expected goals still a very impressive output. I think they

773
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 3: can do a lot against this Norwich defense, which is

774
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 3: pretty suboptimal generally speaking. But I do think their defense,

775
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 3: Arsenal's that is is a bit overinflated. They've had some

776
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 3: pretty solid performances against Southampton and west Ham, but they've

777
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 3: also been running hot in terms of Aaron Ramsdale bailing

778
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 3: them out a bunch. They're still apt to the occasional

779
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 3: mistake at the back, and I think Norwich, who has

780
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 3: only scored one goal from its last six expected goals

781
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 3: in the recent running, has a ton of attacking regression coming.

782
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 3: And as bad as they are in terms of the attack,

783
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 3: they're not that bad as the market says here. So

784
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 3: at home I do think they get on the board.

785
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 3: We've seen them just recently against Manchester United. Probably should

786
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 3: have got a goal in that game. So they've been

787
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 3: able to show that they can compete at home with

788
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 3: some of the bigger teams and really create some chances,

789
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 3: which I think they will do in this game. So

790
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 3: I took Norwich team to total over one half a goal,

791
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 3: just one goal, one fluke, one moment minus one ten.

792
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 3: Already put that in the app and already put that

793
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:08,479
Speaker 3: bet at.

794
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 1: Aaron ram still is the best goalkeeper in the world.

795
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:11,800
Speaker 1: I just want to get that in before we move on.

796
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 4: He's certainly be good at you know, all of our.

797
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: Enny worth, every penny all of.

798
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 4: Our tetis signings worked. Yeah, they've kind of worked out.

799
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:22,839
Speaker 4: From Ben White, he was heavily scrutinized.

800
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 3: Clowns didn't like Ben White. Ben White's amazing. Yeah, he's

801
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 3: a great I wanted Spurs to sign Ben White.

802
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:28,439
Speaker 4: Great player.

803
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 1: Perry Hands plays for Brighton.

804
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 3: I mean he's got to be one of the best

805
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 3: players in the world if he played for Brighton.

806
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:33,720
Speaker 1: I'll say from Brighton.

807
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:37,720
Speaker 4: Speaking of Brighton, minus one oh five hosting another Brighton,

808
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,879
Speaker 4: that's Brentford there plus three ten. The draw is sitting

809
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,320
Speaker 4: at plus two forty five another twelve thirty pm kickoff

810
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:47,399
Speaker 4: on Sunday. I mean, this is just a perfect draw match. Man,

811
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 4: Come on, you're talking about that's his thing, just screams draw.

812
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 4: You're going to absolutely hate yourself if you do bet it.

813
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 4: But that's where I'm going. Two really good cohesive defensive

814
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 4: units taking on two offenses that shouldn't really scare good

815
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 4: defensive teams. And anyway, the Brentford defense has dipped a

816
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 4: little bit, but they're still solid and this Brighton offense

817
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 4: is just not creating chances on the same level that

818
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,919
Speaker 4: they did last year, and they're they just don't scare

819
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 4: me in terms of they're finishing either. I think this

820
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,399
Speaker 4: is going to be hilarious because you could call gram

821
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 4: Potter and Thomas Frank two of YO soccer hipsters or

822
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 4: analytics nerds, exg nerds, whatever. These are two of their

823
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 4: favorite managers, two of their favorite teams, and I think

824
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 4: people's expectations will be pretty high. Think a lot of

825
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 4: people will tweet, Oh, I'm really excited to watch Brentford

826
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 4: and Brighton and guess what nil nil baby give me

827
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 4: the draw plus two forty five low total, two good defenses,

828
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 4: all the ingredients to lose a draw bet for me.

829
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,720
Speaker 4: So that's where I'm going for this one. BJ.

830
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of going a similar vein. I like

831
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: both teams to score no. At minus one fifteen. If

832
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 1: we go back to when these two teams met back

833
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 1: in early September, it was a very cage match. Brighton

834
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 1: Billion or Trissard ended up, you know, scoring them outside

835
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: the box, which are going to be in the difference,

836
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 1: but there was only a total point nine expected goals created,

837
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: only eleven total shots and only thirty four touches in

838
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 1: the penalty area from both teams. Now the question is is,

839
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 1: you know, have both these teams changed significantly since that point.

840
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 1: I would say not really. You know, they're both still

841
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 1: very well organized defensive teams. You know, Brighton especially is

842
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 1: still struggling to create chances. Brentford's deep offense has also

843
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: taken a little bit of a dip. You know, Brighton's

844
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: only averaging one point zero one non penalty expected goals

845
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 1: for match, and they're fifteenth in big scoring chances, which

846
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 1: is not good considering that's how you beat Brentford's defense,

847
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,360
Speaker 1: because Brentford is sixth and non penalty expected goals and

848
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 1: sixth and shots per ninety. But they're one of the

849
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 1: worst teams in preventing high quality chances. So I don't

850
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 1: really you know, see how you know Brighton's gonna create

851
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: a lot of, you know, anything of high quality against

852
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 1: Brentford's defense. Obviously they're getting Neil Mott pay back from COVID,

853
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: but Basuma is out due to suspension. He's very crucial

854
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 1: to them in the midfield, and they're pressing, even though

855
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: you know, especially against the Brentford team that's not very

856
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 1: good versus the press. Brentford offensively, they are big chance

857
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 1: or bust and that's pretty much to They're fifteenth in

858
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 1: shots ninety but six in big scoring chances. Brighton is

859
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: an elite defensive team, especially at preventing big scoring chances,

860
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 1: the third fewest this season. I understand that Brighton's going

861
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 1: to be without two of their starting center backs, Lewis

862
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 1: Dunk and Shane Duffy, but they look pretty good defensively

863
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 1: against Wolves when both those guys were out, so it

864
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:17,879
Speaker 1: doesn't really worry me that much. I have the both

865
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: teams to score. No line projected around minus one forty,

866
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,359
Speaker 1: so I like the value at minus one ten.

867
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 3: You know, everything in me wants to bet goals here

868
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 3: because of what we've seen from these two teams recently.

869
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 3: I mean the last nine matches for both teams, Brentford

870
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 3: one point two four. Expect the goals per ninety Brighton

871
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 3: one point two two, not you know, big time numbers,

872
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 3: but in terms of their actual production, both teams are

873
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 3: below a goal per ninety in the last nine matches,

874
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 3: so we're dealing with two teams who have created more

875
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 3: than they've actually gotten their money's worth in terms of goals,

876
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 3: and defensively, Brentford has been a bit lucky. They've been

877
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 3: a bit fortunate in terms of the chances allowed recently.

878
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 3: So I want to do it, but I can't. I

879
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 3: really can't, and I'm tired of doing these over two's

880
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,800
Speaker 3: and both the to scores in these games that, like

881
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 3: BJ said, the first time these two teams met, their

882
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 3: tactics cancel each other out quite a bit. There was

883
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 3: very few shots, very few chances, and then Brighton stole

884
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 3: it late and they've had a lot of late goals.

885
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 3: It's been beautiful, beautiful because they deserved all of the

886
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 3: late goals. They deserve one late goal every match for

887
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 3: what they went through last year. But I'm going to

888
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 3: probably pass here and may end up playing it if

889
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,320
Speaker 3: it's a line keeps getting lower, but in the total

890
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 3: that is, but not really a ton of interest. And

891
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 3: as soon as they put this match on the calendar,

892
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 3: I know Michael had draw ready to go back in September,

893
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,359
Speaker 3: so he was lining that one up.

894
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 4: You mean what Brighton put us through last year, That's true.

895
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: I am tempted to play Brighton because I actually do

896
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 3: have a little bit of value on them because that

897
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 3: I was.

898
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 1: I was very small on Twitter of the run Brighton

899
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 1: went on last year in February. They're three matches. I'm

900
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: just gonna read them off really quick and you can

901
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 1: cut it. No, it's when they played. So when they

902
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 1: played aston Villa drew them zero zero. Want unexpected goals

903
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: to point six to point one?

904
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 4: They yep.

905
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 1: They lost a Crystal Palace at home two to one.

906
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,280
Speaker 1: They won unexpected goals two point one point two.

907
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 3: Well right in that game, yep.

908
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 1: And then they lost to West Braham on the road

909
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 1: and won unexpected goals three point one to one point.

910
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:16,760
Speaker 3: Remember that game. That was the game when they scored

911
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 3: the goal but the ref whistled it off. Yep.

912
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: And then they had a penalty at the very end

913
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 1: and they missed it or Danny Welbeck hit the post,

914
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, and then he missed a comebacker. Yeah,

915
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 1: that's a wonderful trip down memory lane that you know,

916
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 1: we didn't really need to revisit, but you know, well

917
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 1: maybe due to the podcast and wonders why we why

918
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 1: we keep talking about Brighton as this ex g god

919
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: team like. That's why they also.

920
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 3: Had those wins against Liverpool and Spurs though we'll always

921
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 3: have and they beat City at the end of the

922
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 3: year too, so right, they've they've had their moments a

923
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 3: team that.

924
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 4: Has not had many moments. In fact, they've had some

925
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 4: really despicable ones this season. That's Newcastle United six to

926
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,799
Speaker 4: one at home hosting Manchester United minus two of five

927
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 4: the dress plus three fifty. This is a three pm

928
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 4: kickoff Monday, Monday Night Football. That's December twenty seventh, two

929
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 4: days after Santa comes Manchester United. They haven't played since

930
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,839
Speaker 4: December eleventh, So what do we know about what they're

931
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 4: going to look like under Ralph Ragnick. I think one

932
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,879
Speaker 4: thing I've picked up on and I saw this kind

933
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 4: of being discussed a little bit on Twitter too, was

934
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 4: it seems like they're going to be a much much

935
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 4: more talented version of Southampton. You know, this is the

936
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,959
Speaker 4: style of soccer that Ralph Ragnick wants to place looks

937
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 4: pretty similar to what Ralph housen Hrul has done with

938
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 4: the Saints. It's just Ralph Ragnick's got players like Bruno

939
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,839
Speaker 4: Fernandez and Christiano Ronaldo and Jane Sancho to play, where

940
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 4: as Southampton's looking to do that with Ryan Bertrand and

941
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 4: Theo Wilcott. I don't think that there's any shame in

942
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 4: squaring out here on Manchester United to win by multiple goals.

943
00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 4: I think if this is the only game, all eyes

944
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 4: are going to be on it. I think Newcastle is horrible.

945
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,280
Speaker 4: I like betting against them for a lot of different reasons.

946
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 4: Their defense has been terrible all season. I know Eddie

947
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 4: Howe has started to like get them to play a

948
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 4: little bit better, but I don't trust him to organize

949
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 4: a team solidly defense, especially against a team that can

950
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 4: score like Manchester United should be able to. So I

951
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 4: like United minus one and a half plus one thirty five.

952
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 4: Yeah square, But you know I want to play this game.

953
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 4: It's the only game on Monday afternoon. So give me

954
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 4: Ralph Ragnick's Red Devils minus one and a half plus

955
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 4: one thirty five BJ. A little bit of disagreement here, Huh,

956
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 4: You're going to do it?

957
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 1: Not necessarily, no, I just I do have some project

958
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 1: value on Newcastle. I mean purely if we're using all

959
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 1: you know, we only have two matches under Ragnick, so

960
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 1: we don't have a lot of data on you know,

961
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 1: how much better United is than they were under Ola.

962
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 1: But if we're taking all the numbers from when they

963
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: had only at the wheel, I mean, purely from a

964
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 1: number standpoint, Manchester United is overvalued now they are getting healthy.

965
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:48,919
Speaker 1: Looks like Raphaeld Veronni will be back, which is huge

966
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 1: for their defense. I don't think I can do it

967
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:54,760
Speaker 1: with Newcastle right now, just especially how bad their defense

968
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,280
Speaker 1: has been second worse than the Premier League behind Watford.

969
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: United's pressing numbers are up under Ragnick. They're also more successful.

970
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 1: Newcastle is horrific versus teams that press them. I'm going

971
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 1: to stay away and it's one of those situations where

972
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 1: I want to wait and see what United is going

973
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 1: to look like under Ragnick. Obviously, they've had a ton

974
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:11,879
Speaker 1: of matches postponed, so we haven't really gotten to see

975
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 1: much of them under Ragnick. So it's a wait and

976
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:15,840
Speaker 1: see kind of moment. But at some point we got

977
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 1: to play numbers. Allen Saint Maximum will be back for

978
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:21,439
Speaker 1: Newcastle if Newcastle gets to plus one and a half

979
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 1: and I can get them at a decent price. You know,

980
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 1: like a minus one ten or maybe it's a little better.

981
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 1: I might have to end up playing that, but I'll

982
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 1: probably pass. But you know, brutal stretch of a schedule

983
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 1: for Newcastle to play Liverpool and man City and then

984
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 1: Manchester United in the span of you know, pretty much

985
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 1: a week. So it's a pass for me unless I

986
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 1: can get Newcastle plus four and a half at a

987
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 1: decent number.

988
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 3: Newcastle covered the six and a half that we set

989
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:46,399
Speaker 3: last week, yeah, against Liverpool and we lost by six

990
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 3: the John Joe Shelby banger saving them.

991
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: From jhadle defeat against Man City pressure our penalty in both.

992
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:56,839
Speaker 3: Matches honestly, But yeah, I can't play Newcastle here. They've

993
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,359
Speaker 3: actually been worse second half of the season so far,

994
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 3: minus one point four extra per ninety second last ten matches.

995
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 3: First eight they were about minus point seven per ninety,

996
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:09,840
Speaker 3: so they're getting worse, not better. A lot of that

997
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 3: has come because their attack has kind of fallen off

998
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:13,800
Speaker 3: a little bit, not getting the production they were getting

999
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 3: early from Wilson and Joe Linton and Saint Maximin. They

1000
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 3: don't have the ball winners. They rely on a lot

1001
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 3: of long range chances from John Joe Shelby to try

1002
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 3: to score goals. United probably would look toward the under here.

1003
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 3: I've been talking about this with Ragnik. Gonna probably end

1004
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 3: up going back to more of a solid defense, but

1005
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,240
Speaker 3: an attack that relies a lot on overperforming XG instead

1006
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:37,359
Speaker 3: of creating a lot of high quality chances. And that's

1007
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 3: United's future probably is in the short term. But I

1008
00:45:40,239 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 3: don't really want to back an under here against this

1009
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:45,279
Speaker 3: Newcastle defense, so I'm staying away. This game should be

1010
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 3: on Sunday. If we were on Sunday, I'd be more

1011
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 3: inclined to bet it, but every game should be on

1012
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 3: Boxing Day. That's my belief, and out of protest, I

1013
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 3: will be passing on Monday night.

1014
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 4: We'll see if you can have the self control to

1015
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 4: do that when it's the only match in town. All right,

1016
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 4: let's move on to the underdogs, our favorite underdogs for

1017
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 4: Boxing Day plus Monday. Once again, as always, I will

1018
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 4: tell you that these bets are not for the fan

1019
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 4: of heart. They are underdogs for a reason. A couple

1020
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 4: big ones in here this week. I'll start. I'm gonna

1021
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 4: go against Chelsea again. I think the number is good

1022
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 4: enough on Aston Villa plus four seventy five. This is

1023
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 4: a Chelsea team that is dealing with some lineup issues.

1024
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 4: They're dealing with a downtick in form and they're going

1025
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 4: to take on a defense that has looked much improved

1026
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:30,840
Speaker 4: under Steven Girard. So it's not a given that Chelsea,

1027
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 4: with all their attacking talent, if they are healthy, we'll

1028
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 4: get on the board. And I like Villa's ability to

1029
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 4: counter here. So plus four seventy five at home I

1030
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 4: think is a terrific number on Steven Gerard's Aston Villa.

1031
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:44,800
Speaker 4: So give me the villains. Just kick this one off, Bjay,

1032
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:45,959
Speaker 4: who's your favorite pooch?

1033
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 1: I like Crystal Palace plus three eighty on the road

1034
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 1: against Tottenham. I understand that Totdams looked fantastic under Andy

1035
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 1: Antonio Kante, creating ten point three expecting goals. And it's

1036
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 1: five matches, but not really a murder's row in terms

1037
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 1: of competition. Facing injury riddled Everton Bred for Norwich leads

1038
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 1: and then Liverpool without all of their main defenders. This

1039
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 1: is a really, really good Crystal Palace defense that's getting

1040
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 1: one of their best center backs back in Jockie Anderson

1041
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 1: when him and Mark g play alongside each other. They

1042
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 1: all allow one point zero three expected goals per match,

1043
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 1: so really good defense. They press at a high rate.

1044
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 1: Totenham was very susceptible to losing the ball in the

1045
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 1: middle of the field against Liverpool, even though they did

1046
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 1: put up three four expected goals. Crystal Palace pressed at

1047
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:26,840
Speaker 1: the second highest rate, So I like the Eagles on

1048
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 1: the road at plus three eighty. I think I'm projected

1049
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 1: around plus three ten, so there's some value on Patrick

1050
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:32,879
Speaker 1: Vera's men to grab all three points.

1051
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 4: Fun fact about Crystal Palace. When I was eight, my

1052
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 4: family and was moved to Surrey, England, and the people

1053
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 4: that were trying to get my dad to take a

1054
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 4: job over there took us to see Crystal Palace. They

1055
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 4: played Coventry City Anthony your favorite underdog, but.

1056
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 3: When the Saints go marching in Southampton plus three thirty.

1057
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 3: West Ham has some attacking regression, coming twenty eight goals

1058
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 3: from twenty two expected. This year, they've been a below

1059
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:58,279
Speaker 3: average Premier League team the last six seven matches. They

1060
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 3: have not been able to keep up them with the

1061
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 3: injuries to the defense and some of the lack of

1062
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 3: game control that they've had in the last month and

1063
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 3: a half two months and some troubling signs for the

1064
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 3: Irons across the board looking to play against them. Don't

1065
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 3: look at all like the top five to sixteen that

1066
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 3: they looked like early in the season when they were

1067
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 3: upsetting Liverpool. They've had some okay performances, but they've also

1068
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 3: recently gotten pummeled by Arsenal and then looked very shaky

1069
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 3: at Burnley. Meanwhile, Southampton looks like they're gonna have Frasier

1070
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 3: Foster back in goal. He's serviceable enough for me to

1071
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:29,800
Speaker 3: trust their defense as long as he's good to go.

1072
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:33,600
Speaker 3: I like this here no more, Willie Cabiro Southampton plus

1073
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 3: point oh six x GD per ninety So that's about average.

1074
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 3: They're an average team and that's what they've been in

1075
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,759
Speaker 3: the last two months. But they've been unlucky in terms

1076
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:44,279
Speaker 3: of their defense and despite the amount of big scoring

1077
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 3: chitts they allow. I do think they're going to have

1078
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:48,959
Speaker 3: some improvement in the defensive end in terms of getting

1079
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:50,919
Speaker 3: up goals. So I think they have a good shot

1080
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 3: to pull off this upset on the road Sunday.

1081
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 4: If you are looking for a Christmas miracle and you

1082
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:58,879
Speaker 4: want to wrap all three of those teams together one

1083
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 4: hundred and eighteen to one. It would pay out at

1084
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 4: the current crisis. Be a good way to make the

1085
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 4: money spent on holiday presence back pretty quickly. Hey Christmas,

1086
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 4: Happy New Year, everybody exactly. All right, let's move on

1087
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 4: to the final part of this episode, our favorite bets

1088
00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 4: for Boxing Day plus Monday. Anthony, I'll let you kick

1089
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:19,879
Speaker 4: it off.

1090
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 3: Oh, I just talked about why I like Southampton on

1091
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:24,839
Speaker 3: the money line. I really like them plus a half

1092
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 3: at even money. I'm doubling up again on the money

1093
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 3: line and favorite bet of the week. Southampton defensively has

1094
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:34,800
Speaker 3: allowed way more goals of late than they should have

1095
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,359
Speaker 3: given the amount of chances allowed. Some of that comes

1096
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 3: down to Willy cavalierro and goal, but he's not going

1097
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,839
Speaker 3: to be in goal anymore. They've been a little bit

1098
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 3: shaky in terms of allowing a lot of big scoring chances,

1099
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:47,319
Speaker 3: which is always going to be a way that Southampton

1100
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 3: plays with. The way that they press under hasenhudle when

1101
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 3: they get broken through the first or second line. They

1102
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:55,799
Speaker 3: are very vulnerable defensively. But that being said, west Ham

1103
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 3: has not had the kind of game control they had

1104
00:49:57,640 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 3: early in the season, they're starting to fall off a

1105
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 3: little bit, looking more like an upper mid table team

1106
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 3: as opposed to a team that's truly challenging for European places.

1107
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,279
Speaker 3: I think all of that combines with the fact that

1108
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,319
Speaker 3: west Ham's attack guys like mckaal antonio have not been

1109
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:12,279
Speaker 3: in form of late, not getting the same production they

1110
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 3: were getting early in the year and over forming their

1111
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 3: expected goals thus far. This season might see some regression there,

1112
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 3: so I think west Ham's a bit overvalued. So I

1113
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:24,279
Speaker 3: like Southampton plus a half on the road in this game.

1114
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 4: BJ what's your favorite bet this week?

1115
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1116
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 1: I like Brentford and Brighton. Both teams have scored no

1117
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:32,920
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen. The last time these two teams met,

1118
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 1: it was a very cagy match, you know. Leandro Trossard

1119
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 1: scored a goal from outside the box in the dying

1120
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 1: minutes to get Brighton a one to no win, but

1121
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: only point nine expected goals, eleven total shots and thirty

1122
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 1: four touches in the penalty area from both teams. I

1123
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 1: think we're gonna have a similar match this time around

1124
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:51,319
Speaker 1: as well. Brighten's really struggling to create chances offensively, only

1125
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 1: one point zero one non penalty expected goals per match.

1126
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 1: Brentford is a big chance or bust offense. They are

1127
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 1: sixteenth in shots per ninety and sixth in big scoring chances,

1128
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 1: while Brighton is an elite defensive team top five and

1129
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,880
Speaker 1: non penalty expectacles allowed and third and big scoring chances allowed.

1130
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:12,360
Speaker 1: Brighton's going to be without Basuma, one of their best midfielders.

1131
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 1: He is crucial not only to their pressing, but they're

1132
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:17,959
Speaker 1: connecting play from their slow build up, pragmatic style of play.

1133
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 1: I think we're seeing another very KG type match. I

1134
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 1: don't really see how Egypt team's going to create anything

1135
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:26,279
Speaker 1: of high quality. So I like both teams score no

1136
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen.

1137
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:30,320
Speaker 4: When you think of Burnley, you think of crosses, you

1138
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:32,360
Speaker 4: think of corners, and you think of set pieces, and

1139
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 4: right now, when you think of Everden, you think of

1140
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 4: their abjectness, their terrible ability at defending those kind of things.

1141
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,160
Speaker 4: So I like Burnley plus one forty at home hosting

1142
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:45,320
Speaker 4: Everdon ten Am on Boxing day. Burnley they haven't scored

1143
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 4: in their last three matches and they've only created one

1144
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:49,880
Speaker 4: point three to five total expected goals. But this is

1145
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:52,400
Speaker 4: a good by low spot On this offense taking on

1146
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 4: a defense that is without Yeri Mina, their most important player,

1147
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 4: and Everdon has just been incredibly leaky five point three

1148
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 4: expected goals in their last two matches. Lucky I mean

1149
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 4: lucky as an understatement to only allow one goal to

1150
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 4: Chelsea in their last match. So not only is the

1151
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 4: matchup good for Burnley here, but I think this is

1152
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:12,839
Speaker 4: a good regression spot for their offense and a really

1153
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 4: tough spot for an Everden team that will be without

1154
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 4: for Charleston andros Townsend Damari Gray among a host of

1155
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 4: other players going forward. So I don't really understand how

1156
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 4: this team is going to be able to score enough

1157
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 4: to make up for their defensive woes. So Burnley plus

1158
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 4: one forty at home against Everton on Boxing Day is

1159
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 4: my favorite bet in the Premier League this weekend, and

1160
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 4: that will wrap up our Boxing Day special of Wonder Goal.

1161
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:41,520
Speaker 4: We will be back on Monday morning to look forward

1162
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,840
Speaker 4: to more midweek matches in the Premier League and hopefully,

1163
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 4: like I said at the top of the show, everything

1164
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 4: that we've gone over is still useful and the lineups

1165
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 4: are not just a complete metch. So from BJ and

1166
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 4: Anthony and myself, we wish you guys the merriest of Christmases,

1167
00:52:57,640 --> 00:53:00,080
Speaker 4: and we will see you on the other side. He

1168
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 4: was on a famous heal