1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 2: Sure Lucas with us with SMBC Nico Securities. He writ 7 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 2: it's a brilliant report with lots of charts. I don't 8 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 2: want to go narrow here. I want to go more 9 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 2: like sixty thousand feet. Are we through the pandemic? Are 10 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: we through the shutdown? When we look at price change 11 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 2: in America. 12 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 3: I think we're still in the process of normal normalization 13 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 3: on the prices angle, shorting. 14 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 4: With the pandemic as well. I still think there's a 15 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 4: debris there apps for sure. 16 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 3: And then I think the biggest effect is really psychological, 17 00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 3: not only on the half of businesses, but also on 18 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 3: consumers that are willing to tolerate you know, high inflation. 19 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 5: Well, I mean, because we know that shelter has always 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 5: been a big part, a big component, right, takes up 21 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 5: more percentage I think of that CPI than any other 22 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 5: category month over month. I guess it's I guess it's 23 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 5: trending lower, But tell that to somebody who's actually trying 24 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,559 Speaker 5: to buy something or rent something right now, Right. 25 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 3: Well, this is the classic divergence between what economists look 26 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 3: at and what people on main street actually care about. 27 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 3: So the truth is that shelter inflation is coming down. 28 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 3: It's coming down pretty quickly, and it's coming down pretty 29 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 3: quickly because home prices lead the CPI's measure of shelter 30 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 3: costs by about sixteen months. So the question ultimately we 31 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 3: need to answer is where a home price is going 32 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 3: and they are weak, and we're expecting that they're going 33 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:44,479 Speaker 3: to come down. 34 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 4: National I got everybody Troy telling me this is not 35 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 4: a big deal report. 36 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 2: I don't buy it, and particularly with the backdrop with 37 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 2: Sherman Paul right now, the fact is I have people 38 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 2: like you who are two three four rate cuts. 39 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 4: Going yeh, wait a minute, maybe not. 40 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 2: Are you pulling back the rate reduction scenario that you 41 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 2: see because of a set of inflation data. 42 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 3: We're essentially moving back our rate cut expectations. So January, 43 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 3: they're likely not going to cut unless this CPS shifting 44 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 3: it out correct unless the CPI report is extremely soft, 45 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 3: which we're not expecting. 46 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 6: So are you still looking? 47 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 5: I saw on your note unless your note was a 48 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 5: little bit old, just my hours because of the way 49 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 5: things move so quickly. Are you still looking at three 50 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 5: rate cuts? 51 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 4: You're just throw shade on our guests. 52 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 6: I mean, no, but things lighting see this week. 53 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 7: Know, jeez, it's a little shady here this morning. 54 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 4: Huh. 55 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 3: No, No, So we are looking for three rate cuts still. 56 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 3: We see the economy slow in, particularly in the labor market, 57 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 3: and we also see inflation coming down and that's going 58 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 3: to work. 59 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 4: Are shifting to twenty seven? Like JP Morgan? 60 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 3: No? 61 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:55,799 Speaker 4: No, you really think we're going to see it now? 62 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:56,919 Speaker 6: Three rate cuts this year? 63 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 4: Is this way I look at? Is Myron want six 64 00:02:59,280 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 4: rate cuts? 65 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 2: If he gets four, he's a genius because he's so 66 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 2: alone on this call. 67 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 4: Are you Are you on the edge of Myron? 68 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: No, we're not looking for four, We're looking for three. 69 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,639 Speaker 3: We think with this new Fed chair coming in, combined 70 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 3: with the fact that the regional Fed Bank quotation is 71 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 3: comparatively dubbish to last year's Fed Bank quotation, that that 72 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 3: might be enough to shift the calculus in terms of three. 73 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,679 Speaker 2: Rate Now the ten year inflation just a yield is 74 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 2: a wonderful trend based barometer. 75 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 4: It's in a very tight collar, if you will. 76 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 2: It comes in two basis points one point eighty three 77 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 2: sixty three percent, a dampening of yields, a bid to 78 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: Bill's notes and bonds. And as Lisa mentioned, green on 79 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 2: the screen here as well. 80 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 4: Troy luck with us. 81 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 2: Who is there's like forty seven lines of David Rosenberg 82 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 2: inflation data. You haven't had time to look at him. 83 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 2: I'm not looking for that, but is there color here 84 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 2: that you can give of pretty much a rote idea, 85 00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 2: except course CPI a little more damp. 86 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, A bit surprised here that it's core CPI, which 87 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 3: misses expectations here at zero point two percent. Considering the 88 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 3: fact that gasoline prices were down nearly five percent on 89 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 3: a month over month basis, you would expect that it 90 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 3: was headline that would be weak. But the fact that 91 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 3: core is actually a bit softer is a profoundly strong signal, 92 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,359 Speaker 3: at least to us, that inflation is coming down, inflationary 93 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 3: pressures are dissipating, and the Fed is going to be 94 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 3: cutting this year. 95 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 2: Alexisay asked a brilliant question earlier about tariff dynamics. Let's 96 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 2: combine that with the export of Chinese deflation. Is that 97 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 2: an untold story for twenty twenty six of a dampening 98 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 2: price change in America because of the realities Beijing faces. 99 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 7: One hundred percent. 100 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 3: And it's funny because if you look at the two 101 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 3: most tariff sensitive components of CPI, you look at household 102 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 3: appliances and you look at apparel the year of a year, 103 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 3: rates of change in these prices zero point five percent. 104 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 3: We're looking for tariff inflation, really struggling to find it. 105 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 5: I'm looking at this report right now breaking it down. 106 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 5: Food up seven tenths of a percent in December, so 107 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 5: we're still not getting a break there, right, Americans are 108 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 5: still paying more for the basics, and energy increasing three 109 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,359 Speaker 5: tenths of a percent in December. So again we're finding 110 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,359 Speaker 5: that there are these areas of sticky inflation and no 111 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 5: reason to believe they're going to come down anytime soon. 112 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 3: Troy Well on the energy side of things, what I 113 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 3: would add is that that's likely a reflection of electricity 114 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 3: prices going higher on the back of higher natural gas prices. Now, 115 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 3: it's hard to disentangle how much of this is just 116 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 3: a simple commodity effect versus something that is more related 117 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 3: to the AI theme. But that is something that we've 118 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 3: been worried about for about a year now. 119 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 2: I mean, the reality is there are these little things 120 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 2: that people think. You mentioned electricity rates. You know, I'd 121 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 2: go to the internet like everybody else and I'm sorry, 122 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 2: up eight percent, up ten percent. Elisa just emailed me. 123 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 2: We have a whole internal emails system, folks that we 124 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 2: took from the US military, and Lisa emails me, this 125 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 2: is Tom, what's inflation and door dash, grub up and seamless? 126 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 2: And the answer is ginormous. I mean, how far apart 127 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 2: of fancy people like you from the public on inflation. 128 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 3: There is for sure a ca shaped economy, and that 129 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 3: applies not only to spending but also in terms of 130 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 3: rates of inflation. But this is something that we discussed 131 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 3: really in depth in our year ahead outlook, which is 132 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 3: that the household net worth of the top one percent 133 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 3: is up eighteen percent since the Fed started hiking rates. 134 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,359 Speaker 3: For the bottom fifty percent, it's like eight percent. So 135 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 3: you're really seeing this divergence of fortunes between we'll say 136 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 3: the middle classes and then those at the very tippy top, Troy. 137 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Troy Ludku with this senior US 138 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 2: Economists SMBC that egosecurities stay with us. More from Bloomberg 139 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 2: Surveillance coming up after this. 140 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,119 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 141 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 142 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 143 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube. 144 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 2: Holding Court in the United Kingdom for ages. Leslie Venerburry 145 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 2: just was fabulous on international relations. Like the Chicago Cubs 146 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 2: picked up Alex Bregman from the Red Sox. Yep, the 147 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 2: Chicago Council of Global Affairs picked up Vingerburry. That's how 148 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 2: from Tottenham or something like, Leslie, how about Chicago. 149 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 7: Arsenal Tom Arsenal always? 150 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 4: How's that winter? 151 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 8: Well? 152 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,679 Speaker 2: I know that we were smoking cigars at that fancy 153 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 2: hotel in Mcgravia. 154 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 4: You know, Leslie's going Arsenal. I'm going Tottenham. How about 155 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 4: those Chicago winters, Leslie Vingerburry, you. 156 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 9: Know miles So far two pretty frigid weekends I happened 157 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 9: to be in London and one in New York and 158 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 9: the other. But Chicago's fabulous. I mean, talk about a 159 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 9: beautiful It looks great when it's on the ground. Tom, 160 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 9: the snow is absolutely stunning surrounding Lake Michigan and Millennium Park. 161 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 9: I mean, there's there's nothing like it. It's it's really 162 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 9: something you should come. 163 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 2: My basic take on our international relations is it's all 164 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 2: wonderful until something breaks. How close in our multi front 165 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 2: Trump foreign policy, are we just something breaking? 166 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 9: I mean, it's it definitely feels like it's on the edge. 167 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 9: The return early in the new year, I think was 168 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 9: was boy talk about taking off with speed the you know, 169 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:43,199 Speaker 9: the capture of Madura and quickly pivoting to making claims 170 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 9: on Greenland, and then you know, Iran of its own 171 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 9: accord people on the streets, and Trump contemplating what his 172 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 9: options are. It really is extraordinary. And that's even setting 173 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 9: aside the domestic story. You know, I think that you know, 174 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:02,079 Speaker 9: it's inter national relations hasn't always been easy. It's been 175 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 9: very difficult the last one year. There's so many questions 176 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 9: about the United States, But I think nobody could have 177 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 9: predicted that this was going to become so much about 178 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 9: pre eminence in the Western hemisphere about pushing territorial borders, 179 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 9: whether it's through threats or actual use of force taking 180 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 9: leaders out. You know, we thought this would be a 181 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 9: president who might be neo isolationists, who might be you know, 182 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 9: inclined towards restraint. That is just not what we're seeing 183 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 9: right now, with the major exception of you know, China, 184 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 9: US policy towards China and Russia exactly where we thought, 185 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 9: you know, it might be much tougher at least when 186 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 9: it comes to China. 187 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 7: And again, that's not what we've seen. 188 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 6: And Leslie to throw into the mix. 189 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 5: Now we're ratcheting things up against Iran, right with the 190 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 5: president now saying he wants to impose twenty five percent 191 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 5: tariffs on any country doing business with Iran. What are 192 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 5: the the implications there as that country now sees its 193 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 5: biggest anti govern a protests and years and killing of 194 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 5: many civilians. 195 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 9: Yeah, well, I mean the Iran story is an extraordinary one, 196 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 9: devastating for the presumably thousands of people who are at 197 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 9: risk or have been targeted by the regime. And I 198 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 9: you know, I think President Trump is weighing his options. 199 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 9: You're right, those twenty five percent, you know, he's cracking 200 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 9: down on secondary violation of sanctions basically, and that hits 201 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 9: of course, China and others that he's been you know, 202 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 9: lighter touch with. But relative to the other options that 203 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 9: the US could be considering, that is, you know, perhaps 204 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 9: a first step. The real question is whether there will 205 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 9: be any use of military force, obviously a much harder, 206 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 9: more risky lift. I'm skeptical at the moment, but Trump 207 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 9: today is meeting to consider his options. It could be 208 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 9: that we just continue to see cracking. 209 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:59,119 Speaker 7: Down on you know, these these. 210 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,959 Speaker 9: Sanctions, as you've mentioned, is as sort of the and 211 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 9: wait and see what happens internally. 212 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 2: Good morning Chicago, Good morning across America, Leslie, Vinjamuri with 213 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 2: US year we continue, whether Lesslie, your hallmark is to 214 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 2: always bring in academics. You bring in from Minnesota professor 215 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 2: Fasal Tanisha Fassal, and just say she has written the 216 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 2: absolute best on autocratic states. How autocratic is the United 217 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 2: States of America? 218 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 9: Look, the United States of America is not autocratic. We 219 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 9: have a leader with autocratic tendency, who likes to play 220 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 9: fast and loose with the rule of law, who doesn't 221 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 9: really feel like you should be constrained by Congress, the courts, norms. 222 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 7: Standard ways of doing things, convention. 223 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 9: And this is the year of the people, tom this 224 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 9: is the year when Americans are you making choices about 225 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 9: whether they're going to kind of stand up and hold 226 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 9: the line. 227 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 7: And we've just seen a bunch of past. 228 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 9: Leaders of the FED decide that they are going to 229 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 9: stand up and and you know, we saw a couple 230 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 9: of senators, Republican senators flip over to the other side 231 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 9: and and vote for you know, the president to be 232 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 9: required to report to Congress if he wishes to do 233 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 9: more in Venezuela. So we're seeing a few hints this 234 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 9: year early days that we didn't see last year. And 235 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 9: we have you know, it's a long ways out, Silvi, 236 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 9: we have the midterms coming, so there are you know, 237 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 9: there are some signs that there's going to be a 238 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 9: little bit more pushback. 239 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 7: We don't live in an autocracy. 240 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 9: We live in a you know, very dysfunctional democracy, but 241 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 9: still a very robust democracy with a leader who you know, 242 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 9: by all accounts, wants to make some changes. Some of 243 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 9: his instincts are very good, but he doesn't want to 244 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 9: do it through the processes that you know, we've come 245 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 9: to think are not not necessarily efficient, but that are important. 246 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 5: Right and Trump certainly is unbound and undeterred by precedent. 247 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 5: So what happens with little old Greenland in twenty twenty six? 248 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 9: Leslie, You know, I'm I'm kind of concerned on this 249 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 9: one that. 250 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 7: I mean a couple of things. 251 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 9: Obviously, Europeans are right rightfully up in arms. They are 252 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 9: really talking to each other. They're completely unsettled by the 253 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 9: President's willingness to threaten the use of force to argue 254 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:26,319 Speaker 9: that he can get it just you know, with money 255 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 9: and language. It sort of doesn't matter whether he actually 256 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 9: uses force in one sense, which is he's already completely unsettled. 257 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 9: The most important norm that has guided the system, at 258 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 9: least since nineteen forty five Article to Chapter four of 259 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 9: the UN Charter. You know, you don't use force to 260 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 9: unsettle territorial boundaries. It's a sovereignty norm. But here's the rub. 261 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 9: If you look at the data, most Greenlanders would prefer 262 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 9: to be independent than to be ruled by Denmark. And 263 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,199 Speaker 9: this is I think where the administration is going to 264 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 9: play its hand. 265 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 7: It's going to push that division internally. 266 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 9: It's going to you know, we've already seen there have 267 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 9: been trips by the administration meeting with those leaders of 268 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 9: the independence movement. 269 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 7: I think that's going to continue. 270 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 9: And you can see a scenario where Greenland is given 271 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 9: the opportunity, the voice its preferences and it wishes to 272 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 9: have an independence. And as we know, Greenland can't really 273 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 9: survive as an independent country. It's fifty seven thousand people. 274 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 9: It isn't a part of the world where it needs 275 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 9: more security. So I think this one is definitely a 276 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 9: live option and want something to watch, and it's going 277 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 9: to really rupture relations between the US and Europe. 278 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 4: Less I got twenty seconds. Clubs are White Sox. 279 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 2: You move into Chicago, I mean you're five miles south 280 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 2: of wrigley Field. You got the rock Star location on 281 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 2: Randolph Street. Do you make the easy slide to Wrigley 282 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 2: Field or do you vote for those lowly support those 283 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 2: lowly Chicago white Sox. 284 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 7: You know, Tom always follow the Pope. That's all we follow. 285 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 7: So the Pope and my daughter and and there you 286 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 7: have the app. But I don't choose. I can't choose. 287 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 7: I'm independent. 288 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 4: Oh you're very independent. 289 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 2: I can see that Pope merch on the way, and 290 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 2: let's say vener Mary, thank you so much. Really has 291 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 2: been way too long in Chicago, greatly appreciate. 292 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 4: Let's evenger Mary with us, Stay with us. 293 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 294 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 295 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 296 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 297 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 298 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 2: I wanted to get some perspective on this moment for 299 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 2: Chairman Powell for the Federal Reserve System, and as we 300 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 2: saw with the letter last night led by Leguard and Bailey, 301 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 2: central banker around the world, no one is better qualified 302 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 2: than Richard Portis. He is at London Business School, but 303 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:11,960 Speaker 2: that barely describes his contribution to thinking about global and 304 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 2: transatlantic economics, back to his time as a Rhodes scholar 305 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 2: long ago and far away to Yale professor. Honored to 306 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 2: have you with us this morning. I mentioned McCabe McChesney 307 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 2: Martin in nineteen fifty one. 308 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 4: Is this moment is seismic? Is nineteen fifty one potentially? 309 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 8: Quite? Yes, absolutely, this is a major, major attack not 310 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 8: just on a man of unparalleled integrity in his post, 311 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 8: but also on the institution, on the FED itself and 312 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 8: the independence of the FED is many people would say, oh, 313 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 8: you know, let's not express this too much. I mean, 314 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 8: maybe if it is two independent, we really ought to 315 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 8: three think the mandate and so on and so forth. Yes, yes, 316 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:11,680 Speaker 8: it's worth having a reflection on all that. But this 317 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 8: is something quite different. This is where the President of 318 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 8: the United States, through his minions, is seeking to take 319 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:24,879 Speaker 8: control of monetary policy, and that whatever you think about 320 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 8: what Defend has done, what might do in future, pressure 321 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 8: that is unacceptable. 322 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:35,399 Speaker 2: The key question for me, Professor port is is, Okay, 323 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 2: we're here and based on what we've seen the last 324 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,440 Speaker 2: X number of years with President Trump, he may get 325 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 2: his way, et cetera. 326 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 4: Is it repairable? 327 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:50,120 Speaker 2: Is your study across your exceptional career, is your study 328 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 2: that the system and the American system can repair. 329 00:17:54,760 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 4: Hurt and harm by one person. I think. 330 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 8: That is That's a very very good question because it 331 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 8: goes to the heart of what we mean by trust 332 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 8: by reputation and how those qualities can be squandered and 333 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 8: once reputation and trust are imperiled, are damaged. 334 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 4: They're very, very hard to repair. 335 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 8: So if the President were to have his way, then 336 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 8: down the road you would see I think, a real 337 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 8: deterioration in the in the way that monetary policy is 338 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 8: run in the United States, and that has implications for 339 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 8: us over here, for outside of the United States because 340 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 8: the effects of FED policy on money markets throughout the world. 341 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,160 Speaker 5: Now, Professor I was looking at this unprecedented letter from 342 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 5: from the ECB, and I just want to read a 343 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 5: portion of it. Here says we stand in full solidarity 344 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 5: with the Federal Reserve System and it's Chair Jerome Powell. 345 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,679 Speaker 5: They go on to say that Powell has served with integrity, 346 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 5: focused on his mandate in an unwavering commitment to the 347 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,360 Speaker 5: public interest. I wonder if this letter at all, well, 348 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 5: do you think it will sway President Trump to pull 349 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 5: back a little bit or might not have the opposite 350 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 5: effect and have him dig in his heels. 351 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 8: He doesn't care what the foreigners think. That's clear one 352 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 8: way or not. It doesn't matter what the topic is. 353 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 8: He still doesn't care what the foreigners think. So certainly 354 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:32,719 Speaker 8: not on this one. But it may affect views in 355 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 8: the United States Senate, for example, which is quite important. 356 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 8: It may affect views in the markets in New York 357 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 8: and the financial sector in New York, which has been 358 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,359 Speaker 8: very silent. I don't know whether Jamie Diamond talked about 359 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 8: this issue in his early call today, but he should. 360 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 8: And where are these where are these as? They're scared? 361 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,680 Speaker 8: They're all scared. They're scared that Trump will take revenge 362 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,239 Speaker 8: against them. That's where we got to. 363 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 5: What's interesting, though, Professor Portas, is we're seeing blowback from 364 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 5: within the Republican Party now a number of well, I 365 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 5: think it's three in counting now a Republican senator saying 366 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 5: we're not going to vote on a new FED share 367 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 5: until the legal matter with Powell is settled. Might that 368 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 5: have a little more weight than this letter you think 369 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:23,400 Speaker 5: from the ECB. 370 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 4: Oh? 371 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 8: Certainly, absolutely, and that that really is a cause for 372 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 8: for concern for Trump in terms of nominating a new chair, 373 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 8: in terms of trying to get uh, trying to get 374 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:46,919 Speaker 8: other seats on the on the board of the FED. 375 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 8: There the resistance now is much stronger. That said, you 376 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 8: might think if you were a member of the Federal 377 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 8: Open Market SWINNY, you might think that you might try 378 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 8: revenge against you two if you consist of any vote against. 379 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 4: Richard Porters take at time for one more question. 380 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 2: Lauren Goodwin's here and we got to get to the 381 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 2: CPI report, you know, coming up here in twenty minutes, 382 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 2: Professor port is as simple as I can is the 383 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 2: Trump moment transportable, translatable to a parliamentary system and a 384 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 2: prime minister named Farage. Can the reach of Donald Trump 385 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 2: reach over to a different form of democracy? 386 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:38,679 Speaker 8: Well, you know, we had a central bank that was 387 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 8: not independent at all, that took its marching orders from 388 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 8: the UK Treasury up until the Blair government came in 389 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 8: nineteen ninety seven, and the first thing that they did 390 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 8: was established the independence of the Bank of England in 391 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:56,439 Speaker 8: terms of monetary policy, the very first move that the 392 00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 8: Blair government took, and that has made a remarkable change. 393 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 8: We had an inflationary boom and at the end of 394 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 8: the eighties, precisely because the Chancellor of the Excheck of 395 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 8: the Finance Minister at that time wanted to have expansion 396 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 8: and so we had a very lose monetary policy and 397 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 8: guess what, you know, we had this inflationary boom and consequence, 398 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:18,400 Speaker 8: we're not nice. 399 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,160 Speaker 2: Got to leave it there. Richard porters. Thank you so much, 400 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 2: really appreciate it. From London Business School today on the 401 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,959 Speaker 2: moment at hand for us and across the Atlantic as 402 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 2: a Lexusman for a piercing letter from central bankers in 403 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:31,919 Speaker 2: the continent of Europe. 404 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 4: Stay with us. 405 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 406 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live 407 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 408 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 409 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:55,880 Speaker 1: watch US Live on YouTube. 410 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 4: It's the Newspapers with Lisa Mantao. 411 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,120 Speaker 10: Okay, I want to start with this one because cases 412 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 10: of the flu are surging. In case you haven't noticed 413 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 10: anyone here coughing in the studio, the CDC actually says 414 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 10: there have been an estimated fifteen million cases of the flu. 415 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,399 Speaker 10: The numbers starting to decline, but they're still high. But 416 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 10: there's a few things that are making things easier for 417 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 10: some people because of COVID. People are more comfortable with 418 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 10: taking those at home tests for the flu because to 419 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 10: the at home test for COVID, right, so you're kind 420 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 10: of used to doing that, and what they're saying it's 421 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 10: leading to more timely diagnosis. And what that means is 422 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,719 Speaker 10: that it's easier to take anti virals like a tamiflu, 423 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 10: and that makes people feel better sooner if you take 424 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 10: it within those two days of getting sick, and that's 425 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 10: the hours. 426 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,160 Speaker 6: So if you miss that window, it's tough. 427 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 10: Yeah. So that's the thing, Like people are missing the window. 428 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 10: But now since they're used to taking those at home 429 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 10: tests are getting vice and I. 430 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 5: See more people are masking up something else we're unfortunately 431 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 5: used to because of COVID. 432 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 6: On the train. 433 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 10: Yeah, definitely, I say that a lot. 434 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:02,120 Speaker 4: I got better quickly. I mean, Tucker told me, what. 435 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 6: What miraculous thing did you take? 436 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 2: Because I mostly got horizontal. You're sick as all get out, 437 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 2: so you just get horizontal. 438 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:11,479 Speaker 4: Let's move on. 439 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 7: This is depressing, but he is feeling better. There you go. 440 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 10: There's your update. Okay, super Bowl coming up right February eighth, 441 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 10: So it was time to talk commercials. It's all about 442 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 10: the Super Bowler commercials. I know, I know. Okay, So 443 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 10: sources are telling the Wall Street Journal Open AI is 444 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,920 Speaker 10: set to air another commercial it you know, had its 445 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 10: debut kind of last year the Super Bowl for their 446 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 10: paid ads, and they're saying, you're going to see a 447 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 10: flood of AI companies during the Super Bowl too, because 448 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 10: the competition is heating up. If you want to know 449 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 10: how much an AD is going to cost, yes, okay, 450 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 10: So ad buyers are telling the journal there are some 451 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 10: advertisers paying more than eight million dollars for a thirty 452 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:49,679 Speaker 10: second spot, and they're. 453 00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 6: Saying it's the ROI on that. 454 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 7: I don't really. 455 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 10: I mean, it is under a lot of eyeballs, but 456 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 10: I mean you think that's just for the spot, But 457 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,680 Speaker 10: then you have the millions, sometimes tens of millions to 458 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 10: come with the idea, you know, the whole process of 459 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 10: the work to get. 460 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 7: The ad, you know, on top of the. 461 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 10: Eight million, then they have to pay. 462 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 6: So it's it's a pretty big price tag. But that's 463 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 6: quite investment, it is. 464 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 10: And a lot of these companies, like tech companies, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, 465 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 10: Open Ai, Perplexity. I mean, they've all spent like three 466 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 10: hundred and thirty three million on TV. 467 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 7: Ads in the US in the last year. 468 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,360 Speaker 10: So they're putting up the money they want to get, 469 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 10: you know, the word out there because some people still 470 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 10: concerned about it. 471 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 2: And he's just published in the last hour on Apple 472 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 2: and Google. Huge agreement. I think it's been underplayed by 473 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 2: the media. I hope to add that for you tomorrow 474 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:37,200 Speaker 2: our book solid today. 475 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,199 Speaker 6: We're else to you, all right. 476 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,399 Speaker 10: This last one was on the terminal stuck out to 477 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,919 Speaker 10: me because every time I hear the word longevity, my 478 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:43,920 Speaker 10: ears like tune up. 479 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 7: I'm always on the longevity gig. 480 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,880 Speaker 10: Right, Okay, So this one, Longevity Tourism, raises one point 481 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 10: two trillion questions about loneliness. And this was interesting. The 482 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,120 Speaker 10: author's name on the terminal, it's Alice rob Here. Bloomberg 483 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 10: attended a wellness retreat in Sardinia. She saw an ad 484 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 10: on Instagram and this is known as like a blue zone. 485 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 10: So this is a place where they have traditional lifestyles, 486 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,120 Speaker 10: healthy populations. So a lot of people go there because 487 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 10: it makes them, you know, feel better olive. 488 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 6: Oil, yes, es, yes. 489 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,879 Speaker 10: So she found that she made these connections in the 490 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 10: group and that she talked to her about the importance 491 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 10: of having connections as you get older. And that's where 492 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 10: the loneliness kind of episode came in because a lot 493 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 10: of people lose friendships and now she says that's the 494 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 10: important part of it. 495 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 5: It's a huge business. I'm not even looking at you. 496 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 5: I hear what you're saying. But I also think you're 497 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,880 Speaker 5: never too old to make new friends exactly. And that's 498 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,360 Speaker 5: what point she's trying to make. She's saying people should. 499 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:46,440 Speaker 7: Get out, and Tom and Michael Barr's. 500 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 10: Share you have to go on a retreat and make 501 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 10: your friends. 502 00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 4: Thank you, I think over the newspapers. 503 00:26:55,520 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apples and 504 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 505 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,399 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 506 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 507 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 508 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:17,840 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal