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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul Swinge. You,

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Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits each day

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Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

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Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or

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Speaker 1: the trading floor, find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple

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Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Apple driving lower down two point

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Speaker 1: four per cent. What's interesting is that Wall Street analysts,

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Speaker 1: notorious for their bullishness, have turned bearish largely about Apple

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Speaker 1: and haven't been this pessimistic about Apple in a very

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Speaker 1: long time, multi decades. Joining us now, John Butler, senior

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Speaker 1: Telecom Services and Equipment analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence here in

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Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's Studios to John, why have Wall

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Speaker 1: Street cell side analysts gotten so bearish on Apple? Honestly, Lisa,

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Speaker 1: I think it's a whole subset of factors at work

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Speaker 1: right now. Um, you know, we're still in the midst

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Speaker 1: of this trade turmoil with China, and my concern is that,

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Speaker 1: you know, some of the tensions we've had with with

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Speaker 1: Beijing and some of the issues with Huawei have fueled

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Speaker 1: nationalist buying sentiment among the Chinese consumers. And keep in

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Speaker 1: mind that China is well over n of Apple sales

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Speaker 1: in any given quarters, so it's a big important region

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Speaker 1: for them. And I think if we continue to see weakness,

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Speaker 1: they're stemming from that nationalist sentiment. Uh, that's an issue.

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Speaker 1: And also I think that the departure of chief designer

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Speaker 1: Johnny i've Is is a big concern, you know, because

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Speaker 1: well he was the face of the brand, you know,

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Speaker 1: whenever they launched new iPhones, I this front and center

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Speaker 1: in presenting the new product. He is an industrial designer

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Speaker 1: with um you know, a real folk us on every

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Speaker 1: little detail. And so the question is can the new

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Speaker 1: team that's taking over that was trained by him really

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Speaker 1: fill those huge shoes? And I think there's a question

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Speaker 1: mark around that, and so you know, it's just and

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Speaker 1: you couple that with the with the mature status of

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Speaker 1: the smartphone market itself. The global market looks like the

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Speaker 1: PC market. You know, it's growing low single digit in

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Speaker 1: a good year. And so you know the question is

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Speaker 1: will Apple and make that pivot to services? I think yes,

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Speaker 1: But how quickly is really on people's minds right now.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's all those factors. Just to give

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Speaker 1: you a sense of the names behind this, rosen Platt

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Speaker 1: Securities downgraded the company to sell today, joining New Street

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Speaker 1: Research and HSPC, which had previously lowered the ratings in

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Speaker 1: this dock to sell uh in April and in January,

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Speaker 1: and also on the iPhone, just to give you a sense,

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Speaker 1: more than sixty Apple's revenue last year was related to

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Speaker 1: the iPhone coming from China. Key question for people who

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Speaker 1: want to feel a little bit bullish and Apple after

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Speaker 1: a twenty seven and a half percent gain so far

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Speaker 1: year to date, what could drive the company higher at

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Speaker 1: this point? So a couple of things. Number One, it's

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Speaker 1: a cyclical growth story. Now. I think people have been

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Speaker 1: sort of slow to realize that those glory days of

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Speaker 1: sustained quarter and in quarter out growth for Apple is over.

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Speaker 1: They're going to have good years in bad and we're

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Speaker 1: currently going through a tough year in terms of iPhone sales.

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Speaker 1: But I think we're going to come into a good year,

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Speaker 1: or the advent of a good year, let's say for

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Speaker 1: iPhone sales starting a year from September, when we see

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Speaker 1: what I hope will be the first five G I

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Speaker 1: phone hit the market. UM, So iPhone sales are tough

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Speaker 1: right now. We'll get into next year the comps begin

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Speaker 1: to ease, because they'll be the growth will be in

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Speaker 1: compar harrison to this year, which so far has been

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Speaker 1: very difficult. The bar will be lower. The bar will

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Speaker 1: be lower more easily, and we'll get that new five

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Speaker 1: G phone hopefully. Talking about five G and talking about networks,

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Speaker 1: there was another bit of tech news that I'd love

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Speaker 1: to get your views on. There was a rumor that

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Speaker 1: Google was in the running to acquire Dish Network UH

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Speaker 1: possibly part of Dish Network, to create that fourth carrier.

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Speaker 1: And this comes as T Mobile and Dish we're trying

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Speaker 1: to have a tie up at the antitrust concerns, they're

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Speaker 1: Google now denying it. What's the latest. This is interesting

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Speaker 1: to me because Google has flirted with the wireless market

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Speaker 1: BEFO with Google five, which is basically their whole saling

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Speaker 1: UH network UM carriage from a T and T Verizon

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Speaker 1: sprint from a major carrier, reselling it as Google Fly.

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Speaker 1: So they have an interest in the business. They've toyed

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Speaker 1: with it. Could they become a carrier in partnership with

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Speaker 1: Dish or would they have an interest doing so maybe.

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Speaker 1: My my first thought when I saw the news was though,

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Speaker 1: why would they want to become so heavily regulated? Right?

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Speaker 1: Because Google or Amazon or whoever, they've both been rumored

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Speaker 1: if you get into the wireless business in a big way,

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Speaker 1: you're you're you threatened with regulation by the federal government,

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Speaker 1: right because telecoms a regulated business, wire line more so

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Speaker 1: than wireless. But I think in coming years wireless is

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Speaker 1: going to become more heavily regulated, and so I don't

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Speaker 1: know why they would want to step into that world,

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Speaker 1: but from from that angle, but then again, they're an

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Speaker 1: ad company, and if you believe the Internet is going mobile,

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Speaker 1: which I do, internet advertising is going mobile. So if

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Speaker 1: you actually own the subscribers, you can get a lot

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Speaker 1: of data from that subscriber base, perform analytics on it,

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Speaker 1: and get higher rates for your advertising. So I think

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Speaker 1: from Google standpoint, that would be the rationale to buy

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Speaker 1: into it. So this, of course, just to give you

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Speaker 1: some sense of the details. Here, New York Post reporting

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Speaker 1: uh that Alphabet was recently in talks with Dish Network

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Speaker 1: about creating a fourth US mobile carrier, and this would

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Speaker 1: stem from the the whole issue of whether to create

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Speaker 1: a new network UH stemming from the T Mobile UH

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Speaker 1: Sprint tie up and Google saying no, this isn't happening. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's clarify for a sex. So Dish has already said

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Speaker 1: they're going to build a five G wireless network from scratch,

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Speaker 1: but with the T Mobile Sprint deal under pressure from regulators,

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Speaker 1: one of the concessions is rumored to be the sale

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Speaker 1: of Sprints prepaid business and that would open the lane

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Speaker 1: for Dish and Goal to get into the business. John

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Speaker 1: Butler always a pleasure, so much to talk about. John

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Speaker 1: Butler is senior Telecom Services and Equipment Analyst with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. There is a big question as in a

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Speaker 1: number of investors focus on companies and say, hey, we

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Speaker 1: want you to do the right thing. What does it

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Speaker 1: mean to do the right thing? And joining us now

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Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios is Joey Bergstein, chief

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Speaker 1: executive officer of Seventh Generation. He normally is based in Burlington, Vermont,

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Speaker 1: but here in New York today Seventh Generation. Of course,

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Speaker 1: if you ever have had a child and bought diapers

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Speaker 1: for them and want them to be more environmentally sustainable.

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Speaker 1: UH seventh Generation has that as well as cleaning products

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Speaker 1: and other household items. Joey, I want to start with

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Speaker 1: I know that you have been very active in lobbying

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Speaker 1: for responsible environmental policy is in Washington, d C. What

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Speaker 1: is the most basic step that companies could currently take

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Speaker 1: to make themselves better for the environment. I think the

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Speaker 1: most important thing is for companies to take accountability for

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Speaker 1: the impact they're having on the world around us. So

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Speaker 1: we as a company, we've got a mission which is

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Speaker 1: about transforming the world into a healthier and more sustainable

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Speaker 1: and more equitable place for the next seven generations. It's

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Speaker 1: not just about selling more eco friendly home and personal

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Speaker 1: care products. Of course that's really important, UM, But what

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Speaker 1: we really want companies to do, and starting with ourselves,

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Speaker 1: is to take accountability for the impact that we have

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Speaker 1: on the world. So starting with an internal carbon tax,

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Speaker 1: taxing yourself on the pollution that you're putting out into

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Speaker 1: the world around us, taking a stance in the industry,

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Speaker 1: and trying to have an impact to move to move

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Speaker 1: all companies to take that kind of a stance. We

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Speaker 1: think that there's what we know that there's a real

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Speaker 1: consensus today not just around climate change, with climate scientists

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Speaker 1: have a consensus on, but that the economists around us

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Speaker 1: also have reached a consensus that the best way to

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Speaker 1: address climate change is in fact through carbon pricing, which

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Speaker 1: is very simply just companies being held accountable for the

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Speaker 1: pollution that they create. How much do you feel like

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Speaker 1: an outlier in terms of a company taking these actions,

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Speaker 1: because we've heard from a number of big companies, whether

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Speaker 1: it's Nestly or or or Coca Cola, that they're trying

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Speaker 1: to do the same. I mean, do you feel like

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Speaker 1: there is an earnest effort on behalf of the world's

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Speaker 1: biggest corporations to do what you're doing. Yeah, Well, rather

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Speaker 1: than outlier, I prefer to think about us as a

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Speaker 1: pioneer um. But interestingly, we were with the Series, which

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Speaker 1: is a tremendous organization that's pulling the business voice together

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Speaker 1: around the need for climate change. We were together in

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Speaker 1: d C. There's over a hundred CEOs getting together to

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Speaker 1: to talk about the change that we need to create.

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Speaker 1: It represented over three trillion dollars worth of revenue, over

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Speaker 1: seven hundred thousand employees represented. So I would say we

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Speaker 1: are definitely not at the fringe that more and more

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Speaker 1: businesses are waking up of the need to actually take

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Speaker 1: these kinds of stances and have an impact on the

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Speaker 1: world around us. So what are some of the next

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Speaker 1: innovations that you expect with respect to both housing products

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Speaker 1: as well as how to create them in a sustainable manner. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think, um, there's a lot of innovation around how

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Speaker 1: do we reduce the impact that we're having around in

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Speaker 1: the world around us, particularly around plastic and eliminating the plastics. UM.

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Speaker 1: We're doing some work right now in concentrating our laundry

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Speaker 1: detergent uh into a for the for the same amount

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Speaker 1: of loads of sixty six loads delivered through twenty three

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Speaker 1: instead of a hundred ounces, So that means less plastic

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Speaker 1: less um uh sorry, seventy less weight, sixty less plastic,

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Speaker 1: fifty less water. All those things reduce the environmental footprint

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Speaker 1: of the products that we sell. And want to see

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Speaker 1: other companies taking similar conds of stances. Could you see

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Speaker 1: a realistic scenario in which UH consumer good companies did

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Speaker 1: eliminate plastics in their future? I think so. I think yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think, well, we're seeing it's not going to happen

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Speaker 1: in the in tomorrow. Um, but I think we're seeing

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Speaker 1: companies across the spectrum looking at how can they eliminate

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Speaker 1: the plastics is the single use plastics associated with the

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Speaker 1: products that they make. The issue, though, is not necessarily

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Speaker 1: just plastic. The issue is plastic waste and really creating

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Speaker 1: systemic solutions to address the waste that we're all faced

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Speaker 1: with today and to take that out of the world

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Speaker 1: around us, meaning basically coming up with innovative ways to recycle.

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Speaker 1: Is that the idea, I think so in making recycling systemic.

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Speaker 1: So today only about thirty percent of plastic gets recycled

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Speaker 1: in this country, if we can move it up to

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Speaker 1: that addresses a huge amount of the issues that we

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Speaker 1: are that we're faced with today. Just real quickly here,

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Speaker 1: I'm wondering, how do you pair the idea of having

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Speaker 1: this important mission while squaring that with making money and

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Speaker 1: offering products that people want to buy and you know,

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Speaker 1: trying to have the highest quality of goods. I think

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Speaker 1: that you go hand in hand. I think people really

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Speaker 1: respect companies that are taking a stance and doing the

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Speaker 1: right thing, that are a champion for their rights, and

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Speaker 1: we see that paying back with with loyalty, with people

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Speaker 1: really appreciating our brand or products and the difference that

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Speaker 1: we're trying to make in the world. And I think

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Speaker 1: when you stand up for consumers, they stand up for you.

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Speaker 1: Joey Berkstein, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 1: Thank you. Joey Bergstein is chief executive officer of Seventh Generation.

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Speaker 1: Joining us here in New York. We are watching Deutsche

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Speaker 1: Bank shares off earlier lows, which had been down nearly

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Speaker 1: seven percent. I'm looking at the A d R S

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Speaker 1: American Depository receipts right now. Shares in the US trading

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Speaker 1: down five point two percent as those eighteen thousand job

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Speaker 1: cuts begin. Joining us now from London. A Lisa Martin

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Speaker 1: newsy a columnist ring Finance for Bloomberg Opinion. A. Lisa,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Before we

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Speaker 1: get into the details of the plan. What is the

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Speaker 1: mood like that you're hearing about among some of the

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Speaker 1: people who are being told today they will no longer

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Speaker 1: be working at Deutsche Bank. I think it feels a

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Speaker 1: little bit like Deutsche Bank's Lehman moment, where you have

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Speaker 1: hordes of traders and bankers that are being told to

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Speaker 1: go as the bank starts cutting these eighteen thousand jobs,

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Speaker 1: so in total, about twenty of the global workforce. Um. So, yes,

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Speaker 1: that that's kind of how it feels internally at the moment,

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Speaker 1: and it contrasts with a somewhat upbeat tone that the

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Speaker 1: management has tried to convey today. They're keen to show

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Speaker 1: the bankers finding is reinventing itself. It's finding its new

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Speaker 1: north star, so to speak, which is going to be

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Speaker 1: you know, significantly away from the trading floor. So Alisa,

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Speaker 1: why our shareholders not buying this? Why are they? Why

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Speaker 1: are they selling this news? And you're seeing it in

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Speaker 1: the bonds too that were initially higher but now they're lower.

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Speaker 1: Why is everybody so pessimistic about the efficacy of this plan?

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Speaker 1: I think there are a couple of things going on here.

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Speaker 1: First of all, there has been a drip feed of

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Speaker 1: information for the last three or four weeks about what

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Speaker 1: this plan would look like. So you know, there was

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Speaker 1: a little bit of news um in terms of the

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Speaker 1: magnitude of the bad bank and the the you know,

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Speaker 1: the potential for how much the bank can return to

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Speaker 1: shareholders over time, So that should have provided some obside.

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Speaker 1: But I think a lot of the expectations have already

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Speaker 1: been priced in, and secondly, I think investors are concerned

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Speaker 1: about the credibility of this plan with regards to the

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Speaker 1: execution risk. There's a lot that needs to happen for

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Speaker 1: this to work. The downsizing of the of the bad

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Speaker 1: bank needs to happen um and revenue at the core

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Speaker 1: bank or the bits and pieces that Deutsche Bank can

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Speaker 1: tells to maintain, also needs to grow. And that where

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Speaker 1: you know the bank has failed miserably over the last

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Speaker 1: few years, is to grow revenue. So I think investors

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Speaker 1: are pricing in those concerns as a day progressive. So

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Speaker 1: where does Deutsche Bank plan to increase revenue, especially as

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Speaker 1: they cut their equities unit almost entirely and uh in

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Speaker 1: at least stick with their debt unit that has actually

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Speaker 1: underperformed recently. That's right, I mean, I think one way

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Speaker 1: to describe it will be a sort of pivot away

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Speaker 1: from servicing financial services clients such as hedge funds, to

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Speaker 1: a greater focus on on servicing customers such as German companies.

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Speaker 1: This is basically seeing the bank going back to its

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Speaker 1: routes to where you know, to what it was doing

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Speaker 1: when it was founded in eighteen seventy, which is financing

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Speaker 1: German industry. UM, so it's going to be more of

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Speaker 1: a corporate lender, and equally it's going to be trying

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Speaker 1: to expand existing businesses in private banking, wealth management and

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Speaker 1: asset management. One saving grace, potentially for Deutsche Bank is

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Speaker 1: that reaffirming its mission as a German lender catering to

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Speaker 1: German companies, perhaps they will get increasing backing from the

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Speaker 1: German government and there will be pressure on companies in

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Speaker 1: that nation to really rely more heavily on Deutsche Bank

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Speaker 1: for some of the things that they need done. Do

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Speaker 1: you think that that's a positive for Deutsche Bank going

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Speaker 1: from here? I think, I mean, that's an interesting question.

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Speaker 1: One of the analysts asked on on the call earlier.

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Speaker 1: You know, why is it that they expected to make

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Speaker 1: more money to grow in Germany? How can they possibly

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Speaker 1: beginning market share? But obviously they are, you know, a

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Speaker 1: large German bank to begin with. Um. You know, that

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Speaker 1: might reflect partly the fact that they have been um

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Speaker 1: less focused on some of the clients, particularly the small

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Speaker 1: and medium sized businesses, and also but also some greater

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Speaker 1: confidence from clients that the bank is you know is

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Speaker 1: here to stay, it's stable, and it's going to be

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Speaker 1: looking after them because you know, its effectively shunned those

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Speaker 1: types of customers for ver long time. Just real quick here, Lisa,

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Speaker 1: in twenty seconds, Which banks are gonna be the biggest

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Speaker 1: gainers from Deutsche Bank's exit of certain businesses. Must keep

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Speaker 1: your eyes on bm he, of course, which has a

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Speaker 1: preliminary agreement to take on a part. We don't know

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Speaker 1: how much of the equity business, so we'll definitely want

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Speaker 1: to hear more about that over the coming days. Elsa

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Speaker 1: Martin News, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 1: Alisa Martin News is a columnist covering finance for Bloomberg Opinion.

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Speaker 1: Coming to us from London. Definitely a somber day on

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Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank floors, where people are packing up their things,

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Speaker 1: getting notices saying that they will no longer have a

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Speaker 1: job at the bank as it cuts nearly one fifth

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Speaker 1: of its workforce in an attempt to shore up its

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Speaker 1: profitability and create a leaner and more sustainable UH framework

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Speaker 1: to go forward with. When there's too much gloom and

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Speaker 1: doom among fund managers, some people point to a jobless

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Speaker 1: rate in the United States that is near it's all

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Speaker 1: time lows. The question is do those numbers really reflect reality.

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Speaker 1: Joining us now is Lakshman than He is co founder

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Speaker 1: and chief operating officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

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Speaker 1: He's also a Bloomberg Opinion calumnist who penned a column

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Speaker 1: I found fascinating the myth of the tight US labor market. So, Lakshman,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Can you

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Speaker 1: start by why do you call the tight US labor

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Speaker 1: market a myth? Well, a, Lisa, thanks thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: And the reason I call it a myth, well, look,

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a ten year long expansion. There's been

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Speaker 1: a lot of jobs growth over those ten years. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And that is all well and good. I'm not taking

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Speaker 1: anything away from that. But at aquery Economic Cycle Research Institute,

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Speaker 1: we're studying cycles, you know, the the acceleration and the

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Speaker 1: deceleration in the economy, and we currently are in a slowdown.

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Speaker 1: We're growth is actually decelerating and and it's possible for

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Speaker 1: that to happen even when you have the unemployment rate

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Speaker 1: near half century lows. And and that's what we were

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Speaker 1: getting at in the op ed that we penned that

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Speaker 1: came out on Friday and right in the in the

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Speaker 1: wake of a of a stronger than expected jobs report.

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Speaker 1: So why do we say that. We say that because

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Speaker 1: we're looking at a lot of different coincident measures of

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Speaker 1: employment activity, and collectively they're actually decelerating. If you look

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Speaker 1: past the headlines of the unemployment rate or even the

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Speaker 1: headline jobs growth numbers, you can see that. And that's

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Speaker 1: what we present, uh in that op ed. So there's

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Speaker 1: a question that I had as I read the piece,

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Speaker 1: which is the labor force and understanding, uh, you know

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Speaker 1: how big it is, the direction of it, and what

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Speaker 1: the underemployed or unemployed population is of people who are

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Speaker 1: of working age who just have bowed out or have

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Speaker 1: gotten discouraged. Do you have a sense of that? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and so um for listeners and and and for everybody,

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Speaker 1: just a couple of basics. There's all these different types

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Speaker 1: of employment statistics. That non farm payrolls number you hear

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Speaker 1: is from the Establishment Survey. When we get into the

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Speaker 1: labor force, we were looking at the household survey and

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Speaker 1: UM through May, which is the data that we had

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Speaker 1: when we were writing the op ed. The household survey

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Speaker 1: showed the number of unemployed had dropped by over four

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand, or six and a half percent this year.

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Speaker 1: Uh and the number of employed had also fallen by

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Speaker 1: a couple of hundred thousand over the same time frames.

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Speaker 1: So the sum total four hundred and six hundred was

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Speaker 1: showing the labor force had actually dropped by almost six

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand, or a third of one percent this year.

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Speaker 1: Now with the June data in hand, um, we see

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Speaker 1: that it's not quite as large of a drop, but

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Speaker 1: it's still dropping by about a quarter of a million

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Speaker 1: this year. When that is showing weakness. Is that weakness?

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Speaker 1: I mean could that be people retiring? Because there is

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Speaker 1: an aging workforce in population the United States? I mean,

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Speaker 1: how do you determine what that means? Sure? Sure? No, no, no, Well,

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Speaker 1: months and months, there's just gyrations and data. So you

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Speaker 1: are wanting to look at longer term trends with people

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Speaker 1: retiring and other structural shifts in the labor force. That's

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Speaker 1: over many, many years. The timeframe that we're operating with

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Speaker 1: when we're looking at cyclical moves is on the order

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Speaker 1: of a few quarters. And that's why we're saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: if you look at this year in the jobs data,

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Speaker 1: you see deceleration when you look at don't pick on anyone,

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Speaker 1: look at them all together, which is what we do

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Speaker 1: in a coincident employment index. And we see that that's

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Speaker 1: been d ccelerating its growth rate. It's still growing, it's

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Speaker 1: growing slower. And there's there's another statistic out there, UM

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Speaker 1: that I think is almost UM more important, although it

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Speaker 1: gets UM very very little attention. UH. And and that's

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Speaker 1: this UH. It's also from the Labor Department. It's the

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Speaker 1: Quarterly Census of Employment in Wages. And so unlike the

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Speaker 1: Jobs Report, which are surveys right there, you're you're trying

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Speaker 1: to very quickly count UM, how much has happened in

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Speaker 1: the past month. This quarterly census it's it's it's less frequent,

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Speaker 1: so they can actually go out and count rather than

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Speaker 1: surveying UM. And we believe that and it actually shows

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Speaker 1: you a truer trend of what's going on. And and

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Speaker 1: for listeners and for everybody to understand, when they do

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Speaker 1: the benchmark revisions to the establishment survey data, the headline

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Speaker 1: data that everybody he's off of, they revise it to

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Speaker 1: agree with the quarterly census. And you know, I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of guests don't come on and say we

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Speaker 1: should look at this half year old data because everybody

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Speaker 1: is very fixated on the freshest data. What happened with

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Speaker 1: the jobs report? Um, but here it's very very telling.

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Speaker 1: And what you see is that this they call it

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Speaker 1: the qc e W or the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages,

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Speaker 1: and it shows a sharp deceleration in jobs growth. So, um,

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Speaker 1: right now, it's probably it's it's it's it's suggesting that

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Speaker 1: the establishment survey is overstating the real numbers by about

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Speaker 1: So that's again, we're still growing. We're just not growing

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Speaker 1: as fast as these headlines are saying. We're actually decelerating.

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Speaker 1: And it's that rate of change which is super important

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Speaker 1: for business managers or i'd say investors, you know, is

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Speaker 1: that's going to be related to um profits growth. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so lax one, just just about a minute here, I'm wondering,

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Speaker 1: can you look into your crystal ball. Given the deceleration,

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Speaker 1: it still isn't bad. We're still growing. What does that

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Speaker 1: mean in terms of when the economic cycle will end

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Speaker 1: or you know, whether we're actually running out of steam

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Speaker 1: enough to enter some sort of downturn in the near future. Well, okay,

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Speaker 1: so we're decelerating. This is the fourth growth rate cycle slowdown,

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Speaker 1: which will include slowdowns in jobs since the recession. We

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Speaker 1: had one in eleven sixteen and we're having one now.

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Speaker 1: So right there, you see that it doesn't have to end.

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Speaker 1: The slowdown does not have to end in recession. Although

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Speaker 1: every time you have a slowdown, by definition, your recession

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Speaker 1: risk is starting to rise. So I know a lot

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Speaker 1: of people have said that, you know, they think of

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Speaker 1: recession is this year, next year whenever. We don't see

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Speaker 1: We don't even forecast that way. We look at our

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Speaker 1: leading indexes to see if a window of vulnerability has

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Speaker 1: opened up where any shock can cause a hippis into recession.

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Speaker 1: That hasn't happened yet, but until the leading indicators turned

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Speaker 1: back up, we have to remain super village vigilant and

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Speaker 1: we're doing that. So more bottom line is more slow

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Speaker 1: down ahead, but a recession is not guaranteed yet. Lakshmanatan,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. He's co

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Speaker 1: founder and chief operating officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute,

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Speaker 1: also a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. His latest column, which came

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Speaker 1: out Friday, The myth of the tight US labor market.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg PANL podcast. You can

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Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

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Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa bram Woyds. I'm on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Lisa bramwo wits one before the podcast, you can always

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