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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcasts Podcast. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go spreading the corn.

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Speaker 2: Ten seconds of eating to just go throw off the basket,

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Speaker 2: under the basket.

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Speaker 1: It's the troup for the wind.

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Speaker 2: God make a miracle.

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Speaker 1: I'm just it's up the water. Hit that one from

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Speaker 1: the parking lot.

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Speaker 3: Shuck it all at Codge Basketball. It's not the size

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Speaker 3: on the dog in the fight, it's the size of

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Speaker 3: the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: Welcome inn, ladies and gentlemen too. The Confidence Tournament Betting

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Speaker 2: preview edition of The Big Best on Campus Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 2: Matt Cox. The three man lead are here, Jim or

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Speaker 2: Kay McKeon, the usual cast of characters. Fellas, it's time

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Speaker 2: to break down conference tournament futures, best bets and the like.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna talk four weeks today in Missouri Valley, the

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Speaker 2: Sun Belt and the SoCon give our best bets for

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Speaker 2: each breakdown the formats in any additional angles that you

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Speaker 2: may missed. It's March, so it's it's time. It's our

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Speaker 2: time in the month, Kaijam any indditional thoughts where we

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Speaker 2: getting the action?

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Speaker 4: Oh, it's our time of the month. Just like you

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Speaker 4: said while put mat.

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Speaker 2: It's our time in the month, Matt, you're damn right. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: well let that one why as as it does? All right,

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Speaker 2: We're going to the Valley Kai to start us off

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Speaker 2: a tournament that's very near and dear to our heart

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Speaker 2: to Saint Louis Brethren Arch madness, man, this is as

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Speaker 2: wide open as it gets. There is no easy path

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Speaker 2: through any of these teams. The narrative coming in was

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Speaker 2: at least a month ago, was that Loyola was going

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Speaker 2: to maybe march to the conference title, and it seemed

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Speaker 2: like they were going to be the favorite. But they

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Speaker 2: have slowly faded down the stretch and this looks like

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Speaker 2: it could be up to a five team field. They

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Speaker 2: lost over the weekend in Northern Iowa, which allowed the

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Speaker 2: Purple Panthers to secure the top seed, so they are

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Speaker 2: the one line slot and Loyola slides all the way

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Speaker 2: down to a four seed. Leola is a four seed

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Speaker 2: in this tournament, but again it doesn't really matter because

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Speaker 2: the top four seats just have to play three games

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Speaker 2: and everything's on neutral site. So again, the prices here

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Speaker 2: I think are pretty fair, as we will run through

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Speaker 2: them here in a second lot of unpack here, Jim,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to you first, what are you looking at

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Speaker 2: in terms of your first round matchups, futures, angles, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: My first ultimate point here is that Northern Iowa was

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Speaker 3: sitting there at the one seed. Pretty tortured history in

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Speaker 3: this event like this, specifically this core AJ Green led team.

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Speaker 3: Back in twenty twenty, they lost to a play in

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Speaker 3: game a playing team Matt that basically never happened.

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Speaker 1: I think it had never ever happened the first time.

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Speaker 3: And that year both playing teams won seven seed Balpo

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Speaker 3: went all the way to the title game. So that

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Speaker 3: was Northern i was first experience with it. And then

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Speaker 3: last year they were acted due to COVID. They won

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Speaker 3: their play in game and didn't get a chance in

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Speaker 3: the quarterfinals. AJ Green was obviously hurt. So I'm sure

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Speaker 3: they're going to be on a little bit of a

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Speaker 3: mission here. But yeah, you mentioned Loyola the they're the favorite,

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Speaker 3: but they have a tough, tough road. They're probably going

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Speaker 3: to have to beat three teams that they've already lost

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Speaker 3: to this year, which is Man's. That makes it very

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Speaker 3: very difficult. Kai.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there is no easy path.

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Speaker 5: Every single team has to beat somebody also good and

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Speaker 5: a team that can beat them. It's the most wide

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Speaker 5: open tournament I think maybe out there, or maybe looks

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Speaker 5: most competitive. It's a tournament. I don't feel comfortable betting

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Speaker 5: anybody in from a futures market. So when you have

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Speaker 5: it like that, Matt, I tendling towards Hey, the one

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Speaker 5: that pays me the most money, give me the most

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Speaker 5: or excuse me, the highest odds. Give me those plus

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Speaker 5: five hundred odds here, you know, Wila, Yeah, they certainly

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Speaker 5: might win this conference tournament, but I'm not sure I

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Speaker 5: take them at one thirty.

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Speaker 1: I think there's better values than the bolders.

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Speaker 4: One thirty poopy value, I.

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Speaker 1: Will tell you it is.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a negative of a team that we've

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Speaker 2: been fading the last month in conference play. They've been

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Speaker 2: giving these gaudy spreads, and they've not been as good

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Speaker 2: as a large favorite. I think the same sort of

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Speaker 2: angle applies. You're I loyal At plus one thirty. They

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Speaker 2: open with Bradley at the five seed, who is plus

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Speaker 2: seven hundred. Again, they split with them season and then

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Speaker 2: the other three teams are locked in a dead heat.

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Speaker 2: Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Drake all right around plus

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Speaker 2: four fifty to plus five hundred depending on what shovy

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Speaker 2: look you look.

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Speaker 3: Quick note on loyal To. They do get Marquise Kennedy

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Speaker 3: back huge in my opinion. I think somebody pointed on

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Speaker 3: Twitter that three of their five value losses were without him,

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Speaker 3: so that does matter. He's been dealing with a hamstring injury.

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Speaker 3: Getting him back in there maybe bumps them up a

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Speaker 3: little bit, but I still think the value for what

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Speaker 3: they have to go through, like if they were a

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Speaker 3: one or two seed, maybe I'm okay with that price

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Speaker 3: because they're gonna have to play a winner of as

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Speaker 3: Jordan Mjeski calls them, the pillow fights, the Thursday night

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Speaker 3: pillow fights. But instead they get, like you said, Matt Bradley,

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Speaker 3: who is a team that has already beaten them.

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Speaker 2: That is, that's a challenge, and a team that's had

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Speaker 2: immense success in this field. Ryan Worlds won this conference

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Speaker 2: tournament back to back years, so we know what they can.

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Speaker 2: They can stew up some Arch Valley magic. Ki, I

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Speaker 2: guess we should probably not. The Lucas are sitting there

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Speaker 2: at plus nineteen hundred at the six seed, but I

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Speaker 2: think that's where you drop the line in terms of

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Speaker 2: teams you actually want to seriously consider backing. Let's just

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Speaker 2: get into our best bets here. Here's my breakdown on this.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to avoid the top half of the bracket,

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Speaker 2: which includes Northern Iowa, Loyola, and Bradley putting emphatically, yeah,

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Speaker 2: which kind of narrows my focus to the bottom half,

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Speaker 2: which is where Missouri State's the two seed they play

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Speaker 2: the learn of the playing game, and then below them

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Speaker 2: is Drake at three, SIU at six. So by process

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Speaker 2: of elimination, Kai, I'm looking at the Missouri State Drake

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Speaker 2: impending potential semi final matchup, and I think in that matchup,

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Speaker 2: I like Drake, and so from that angle, I'm taking

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Speaker 2: Drake as my best bet, although again, as you mentioned

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Speaker 2: at the onset, Kai, there's better value in other conferences.

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Speaker 2: But I think if you're looking to bet this, Drake

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Speaker 2: plus five hundred is my pick.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The bottom half, right, it's the clear path.

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Speaker 5: You know, Missouri State and Drake, presumably one of those

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Speaker 5: teams will come out of this section of the bracket.

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Speaker 5: Make the championship gives you more hedging opportunities. You can

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Speaker 5: find Missouri State and Drake both pretty close to plus

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Speaker 5: five hundred. It's some books again. Line shopping is going

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Speaker 5: to be the key in this. I have a question

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Speaker 5: for you fellas before I say best bet here. Would

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Speaker 5: you rather take Loyola plus one thirty or would you

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Speaker 5: rather bet money line against Lola every single round they play.

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Speaker 4: I'd rather bet money line against him every game.

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Speaker 5: For yeah, right as well? Hey, why not think about it?

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Speaker 5: My best bet, Matt. You know, I like either Northern Iowa,

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Speaker 5: Missouri State, or Drake. You're all getting that plus five

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Speaker 5: hundred value. I don't think Bradley's gonna win, and it's

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Speaker 5: better value than Loyla, So any of those three I

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Speaker 5: think would be just fine on a future standpoint.

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Speaker 4: Matt, I have changed my mind as we were recording this.

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Speaker 4: One of my best BET's going to be. I am switching.

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Speaker 4: I was about to give.

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Speaker 3: Out Missouri twenty because Isaiah Mosley could be the best

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Speaker 3: player on the floor, but I'm going Drake. I just

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Speaker 3: remembered that I watched Drake play Missouri State and the

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Speaker 3: second leg of their little duel this year, and it

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Speaker 3: was a majorly flopy result. Drake could not buy a

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Speaker 3: jump shot. Missouri State did end up sweeping them, I

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Speaker 3: think Drake was still dealing with some injuries. They're healthier,

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Speaker 3: you can get. Like I said, they're both available right

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Speaker 3: around five to one, and I just leaning ever so

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Speaker 3: slightly to Drake. The one disadvantage is they have to

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Speaker 3: go through Southern Illinois rather than getting a fight Victor,

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Speaker 3: so lean into Drake.

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Speaker 4: That's probably where I would allocate my resources here.

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Speaker 3: But I also wouldn't mind if you split between Drake

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Speaker 3: and Missouri State and then just kind of figured it

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Speaker 3: out in the title game, depending on who makes it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's not an idea, and we could be short

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Speaker 2: selling the fact that you're at Missouri State catches the

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Speaker 2: playing game versus Drake against SIUC, who is trending up,

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Speaker 2: who is getting healthier, who could certainly be one of

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Speaker 2: those undervalued teams.

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Speaker 1: But I still think Drake.

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Speaker 2: I just trust Daring Debris and that coaching staff and

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Speaker 2: that team that's been playing better lately, have got healthier.

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Speaker 2: I just think they have a little bit of a

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Speaker 2: chip on their shoulder. I think relative the other teams

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Speaker 2: in the field. And I got to quick quick points

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Speaker 2: number one. I think you have on the outline. I

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Speaker 2: haven't mentioned it, but the playing teams Team seven through

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Speaker 2: ten don't bother dead money. I believe was the first

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Speaker 2: team ever in this tournament to make the championship when

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Speaker 2: they did it two or three years ago. So these

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Speaker 2: teams are pretty much dead in the water. That was

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty was the first year that a playing game

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Speaker 2: had won a quarterfinal game. They never happened before.

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Speaker 3: They always lose right away, but that year was a

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Speaker 3: little bit fluky because both the seven and the eight

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Speaker 3: seed won.

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Speaker 4: But I throw that one out.

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Speaker 5: And these four teams Illinois State, Indiana State, BALPA, Heavansville,

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Speaker 5: I'm not scared of any of them. A lot of

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Speaker 5: injured injuries there. Yeah, none of these teams are there

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Speaker 5: full four.

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Speaker 2: And if al Praiso was at their full capacity of players,

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Speaker 2: like maybe you could talk me into it, but they're not.

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Speaker 2: So that's the only one i'd maybe like get seduced

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Speaker 2: into playing.

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Speaker 5: But no, I would say point two here, guys, And

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Speaker 5: this is an overarching theme. I don't think there's any

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Speaker 5: evidence for hot teams cold teams heading into the conference tournament.

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Speaker 5: So some teams have won several in a row, some

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Speaker 5: teams have lost seven in a row. I don't think

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Speaker 5: it matters if you look back at historical stuff one

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Speaker 5: way or the other. But I think you're gonna see

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Speaker 5: a lot of narratives about, oh, the hot team, maybe

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Speaker 5: they're in the conference tournament. Look at Georgetown last year, right,

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Speaker 5: they were stalling out heading in the Big East Tournament

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Speaker 5: and then ended up winning the.

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Speaker 1: Damn playing that. So yeah, a little little overarching thing there.

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Speaker 3: To that point, Kay, I think like if a team

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Speaker 3: is playing well for a specific reason, we're going to

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Speaker 3: get to it. In the Sun Belt, there's a team

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Speaker 3: that's playing much better for very like specific explainable reasons,

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Speaker 3: then I think it matters. But it's just like, oh,

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Speaker 3: they won three in a row and you have no

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Speaker 3: reason for it, then yeah, I don't buy it.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Bob Stole is on v Sin Kai. Just to

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Speaker 2: put a bow on what you're saying. Looking at how

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Speaker 2: teams are playing coming into the tournament, let me just

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Speaker 2: narrow the scope to the game right before the conference tournament.

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Speaker 2: If you're playing a team that just lost your last

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Speaker 2: game against a team that just won their last game,

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Speaker 2: that's actually a plus ev play. It's and I think

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Speaker 2: around fifty two to fix three percent historically on a

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Speaker 2: pretty large sample, but that's not a one game, that

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Speaker 2: first game of tournament, so not futures here, just looking

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Speaker 2: at first round. That's I would keep that angle in

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Speaker 2: the back of your mind, and that's sort of applicable

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Speaker 2: to all these conference tournaments. So just kind of a

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Speaker 2: quick pendulum swing that has played out pretty favorably in

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Speaker 2: a bounce back turnaround spot.

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Speaker 1: The next game.

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Speaker 2: All right, Conference tournament number two, we're heading out west

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Speaker 2: to Jim's backyards. Time to talk WCC. And this is

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Speaker 2: my favorite conference tournament format, guys, because it rewards the

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Speaker 2: victors of the regular season, stacks the deck enormously in

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Speaker 2: the favor of those who performed well throughout the regular season.

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Speaker 2: Gonzaga and Saint Mary's the top two seats here. They

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Speaker 2: get an auto by to the semis where Pacific LMU

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Speaker 2: San Diego and Pepperdine will have to win one, two, three, four,

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Speaker 2: five games, which they're not going.

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Speaker 1: To do five games in six days. Yeah, not doable.

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Speaker 2: You basically can cross them off. Another one where we

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Speaker 2: use the process of elimination approach. Here it's you know,

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Speaker 2: Gonzaga Saint Mary's minus three seventy five for the Zags

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Speaker 2: plus two seventy five for Saint Mary's. Jimmy Mets in

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Speaker 2: this pre show, that feels way too cheap for the Gales,

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Speaker 2: even though they just came off that really impressive win

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Speaker 2: against Gonzaga at home and they played them well in Spokane.

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Speaker 1: I need more value. If I'm looking to be cute

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Speaker 1: and go against the Zags. I bet here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Saint Mary's was just at home catching ten and

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Speaker 3: they were that's at home. They're going to be like

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Speaker 3: a fourteen thirteen, fourteen point dog on a neutral here.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna get better money line value on Saint Mary's

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Speaker 3: just by itself because I don't see Gonzaga losing before

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Speaker 3: the final. So only plus two seventy five to beat

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Speaker 3: Santa Clara and Gonzaga that's no.

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Speaker 4: Thank you get out of here with that p Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Similarly, I would say, if you like San Francisco, who's

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Speaker 5: going off a plus twelve hundred, just take the money

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Speaker 5: line against the Zag's next game. I think you'd end

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Speaker 5: up ahead betting than money line rolling. I think for

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Speaker 5: their games against Gonzagon and Saint Mary's in the championship, right.

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Speaker 3: And likely like you start off with the BYU, probably

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Speaker 3: like minus one thirty and then just roll that over

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Speaker 3: with the money.

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Speaker 4: Line, Parland.

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Speaker 3: I think that's the way to go if you want

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Speaker 3: to bet somebody like San Francisco. This is going to

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Speaker 3: be a boring tournament preview because it's, oh, yeah, Gonzaga is.

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Speaker 4: Gonna win, like they're winning.

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Speaker 1: Would be shocked they don't, Yeah, Jim.

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Speaker 2: Just for context, Saint Mary's closed plus four hundred to

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Speaker 2: plus four fifty in the last game they just won.

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Speaker 1: So you're going to.

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Speaker 2: Tell you as a home this tournament's on a neutral floor,

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Speaker 2: they have to win two games. We should mention know

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Speaker 2: that conmerence tournaments always have a pretty higher hole, so

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Speaker 2: that's all. You can't always look at that like regular

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Speaker 2: season two conference tournament futures sort of breakdown.

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Speaker 1: But still that does not add up to me. And

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Speaker 1: that's a part.

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Speaker 3: If you're like in love with Saint Mary's and you

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Speaker 3: watch that game, you're like, that's repeatable.

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Speaker 4: They're going to beat him again. Just bet the two

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Speaker 4: money lines.

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Speaker 1: Yes, do that? I agree.

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Speaker 2: I just real could want to reset on the on

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Speaker 2: the how the bracket sets up here. So Gonzaga plays

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Speaker 2: the winner of San Francisco and whoever they play, which

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Speaker 2: will likely be BYU. I think that's kind of the

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Speaker 2: matchup we're envisioning there, So Gonzaga playing winner at sam

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Speaker 2: Fram BYU, and then Saint Mary's likely catching the winner

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Speaker 2: of Santa Clara and Portland or San die or Pepperdine.

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Speaker 2: Is there any sort of intrigue in early round that's

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Speaker 2: with that side of the bracket at all, Jim Kai Pepperdine.

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of sort of have them circled as a

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Speaker 2: good first round bet against San Diego to back the

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Speaker 2: runs a Romar and the Boys.

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Speaker 3: Pepperdine is missing four key players in their season finale.

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Speaker 3: They were without Zdek, they were without Max Lewis, who

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Speaker 3: has done for the year. They're without Jeda Smith and

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Speaker 3: Darryl Polk. If if they're down the seven guys again,

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Speaker 3: they were playing I think what's his name Yun was

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Speaker 3: playing that could walk On getting big minutes. If they're

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Speaker 3: down to seven guys playing at walk On, I can't

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Speaker 3: have much interest. But maybe they're healthier, Maybe they're able

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Speaker 3: to be able healthier here Portland, I think Matt is

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Speaker 3: the team to continue backing. They're just better than rankings happen.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and they'll catch the winner of San Diego Pepperdine there. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: a Santa Clara plus twenty five hundred again to the

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Speaker 2: three seed San Francisco at plus twelve hundred. As the

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Speaker 2: four seed, they're probably the only team I'd even consider

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Speaker 2: endorsing in good faith outside of Saint Mary's Gonzaga. But again,

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Speaker 2: I just can't. I can't get there. I know Todd

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Speaker 2: Golden's played Gonzaga close historically, but then we just watched

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Speaker 2: the most recent game at war Memorial, San Francisco's home gym,

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Speaker 2: and the Zag's dominated. Now, they played like an A

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Speaker 2: plus game, but just I don't think they have enough

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Speaker 2: choos to compete there.

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Speaker 3: This this format is geared to reduce drama, and that

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Speaker 3: also reduces betting opportunity. So it's just it's just the

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Speaker 3: way it's structured.

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Speaker 2: How boring of us to pour cold water on quote

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Speaker 2: unquote awesome best bets for the pert two couners. But hey,

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Speaker 2: we're we're giving our objective shrewd opinions here and that's

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Speaker 2: what we see. Final thoughts before we move on to

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Speaker 2: the sun Belt aka the fun Belt.

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Speaker 1: Mister ken I.

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Speaker 5: Had BYU's price here plus five thousand would be a

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Speaker 5: hell of a run if they beat San Francisco, Gonzaga,

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Speaker 5: Saint Mary's all in a row. Yep, and again they

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Speaker 5: probably they're probably a dog in all three of those games.

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Speaker 5: You might be able to roll the money line something

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Speaker 5: better than five plus five thousand. I just don't see

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Speaker 5: anybody winning this exception Zaga and It's price that way.

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Speaker 4: Man.

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Speaker 3: I will say for Biu's first game, I think they

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00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:48,400
Speaker 3: might be a pretty solid that they really tail spun

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Speaker 3: down the stretch, but they have an awesome coach. It's

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Speaker 3: a little bit of that postseason reset, new season kind

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Speaker 3: of thing. I think Byu in that Friday game to

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Speaker 3: get to the San Francisco on is going to be

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00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:01,840
Speaker 3: maybe a decent value there against either what it would

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Speaker 3: be Loyal and Merrymount or Pacific.

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Speaker 5: Just like yeah, just be both those teams by the

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Speaker 5: exact same score last week seventy nine to fifty nine.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, wild Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I thought it was interesting that Mark Pope is one

347
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:16,680
Speaker 2: in two or one in three in his last four

348
00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,160
Speaker 2: games against the spread in this tournament, Like I almost

349
00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:22,680
Speaker 2: seem like he's trying to in pass situations. He is ropodoped,

350
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Speaker 2: Like I'm going to be in the field. I'm trying

351
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Speaker 2: to kind of like, I'm okay if I lose or

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Speaker 2: I don't like show my full suite of cards. I

353
00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:30,960
Speaker 2: don't know, could be a complete reach, just something work

354
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Speaker 2: outing there.

355
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Speaker 3: Oh, if there's the best bet here for me, it's

356
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Speaker 3: throwing like. I don't really do a lot of parlays

357
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Speaker 3: almost at all, but Gonzaga minus three seventy five, I'll

358
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Speaker 3: probably throw in. Like if I like another minus minus

359
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:45,880
Speaker 3: money favorite in a commerce tournament, A probably.

360
00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 4: Parlay in with the Zags because I think they win.

361
00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:49,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't be afraid to lay juice. I took the

362
00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,000
Speaker 2: minus two hundredth Murray State on the OVC. I'm taking

363
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:54,360
Speaker 2: Zags as well. Mins three seventy five.

364
00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,680
Speaker 1: Wi Jim. Here is my best bet, not a great bat.

365
00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:58,880
Speaker 4: Murray State into a into.

366
00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:01,280
Speaker 1: A parlay action. I like that at all.

367
00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,080
Speaker 2: Right, it's time to go to the fum belt kids.

368
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,480
Speaker 2: Kay alludes this at the onset. I think this is

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00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:09,240
Speaker 2: actually the most wide open field. It's a standard twelteen format.

370
00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:11,880
Speaker 2: The whole thing is on a neutral side. This is

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00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:15,280
Speaker 2: being played in Sorry not Pensacola, Florida. This is an

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00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,480
Speaker 2: Ashville correct No, sorry to Ashville is so Pensacola is

373
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Speaker 2: where some belt just think I'm getting my tournaments mixed

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Speaker 2: up here, Matt.

375
00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:23,400
Speaker 3: Let me tell the Let me tell the people why

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00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,880
Speaker 3: this is the most open. You can get every team

377
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:27,920
Speaker 3: in this in this tournament. If you line shop, you

378
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:29,880
Speaker 3: can get every team at plus four hundred or better.

379
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:31,320
Speaker 4: Like that, that's ridiculous.

380
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,760
Speaker 3: There's no clear favorite at all, even between books. There's

381
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,000
Speaker 3: no consensus about who the best team is, who the

382
00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 3: favorite is, who has the easiest path. That tells you

383
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,640
Speaker 3: that this is just geared for mayhem, neutral site, no

384
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:47,000
Speaker 3: extra buys, no real added incentives for the the best teams.

385
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,400
Speaker 3: This one is the opposite of the WCC. It is

386
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Speaker 3: geared for drama, upset betting opportunities.

387
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Speaker 1: And this is why you should bet it.

388
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,000
Speaker 2: Because if you I have like a cute little synthetic

389
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,280
Speaker 2: cold calculator where you can enter the prices of every

390
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,360
Speaker 2: team by sports book, you can find a team you

391
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 2: like for basically better than juice free. So not only

392
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Speaker 2: do you remove the standard juice you've been on a side,

393
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:08,720
Speaker 2: but you actually remove the additional hole that books will

394
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,479
Speaker 2: take for the futures market. So yes, I think if

395
00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,719
Speaker 2: you want to hone it on a tournament. The Sun

396
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:14,960
Speaker 2: belts the perple one to do it.

397
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:15,440
Speaker 1: Now.

398
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 2: The challenge is kai is which one do you pick?

399
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,520
Speaker 2: And that's where the who the hell knows comes in.

400
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,240
Speaker 2: I'm taking a good old hill Mary flyer, which I

401
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,000
Speaker 2: will reveal on a second. What are you looking at?

402
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 5: I think there's like eight teams that can win this term. Yep,

403
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,920
Speaker 5: you can even say nine, Like if Arlington would win,

404
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,199
Speaker 5: I don't think I'd be so super shocked.

405
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,720
Speaker 4: Are you believe the best player like, yeah, league?

406
00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:38,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll say ten can win it. Monroe, no, and

407
00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:40,919
Speaker 2: Little Rock now, but all other ten can win this

408
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:41,640
Speaker 2: I think, yes.

409
00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,280
Speaker 5: Win Every team either has a super good player or

410
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 5: a really good coach, and some have both. And then

411
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,639
Speaker 5: that's what makes this league so wide open and fun.

412
00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:54,439
Speaker 5: The favorite, ironically at most books is Georgia State, despite

413
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Speaker 5: being a three C gym.

414
00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 1: And you kind of see this throughout.

415
00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:01,639
Speaker 5: Actually, books are lining conference ods very in line with

416
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,959
Speaker 5: Kim Palm almost his simulator thing. Yeah, yeah, his simulator.

417
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,040
Speaker 5: They're taking their actual ranks, you can see having so

418
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 5: kind of the next one here, but some places, right,

419
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 5: Georgia State is plus four hundred, like Jim said, Texas

420
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,719
Speaker 5: State's plus four hundred and some places and the favorite

421
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:17,760
Speaker 5: other books I saw about line shopping here.

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00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:19,840
Speaker 1: I think you can't go wrong with almost any bet.

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00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,400
Speaker 5: My favorites probably Georgia State Jim, and then a flyer

424
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:25,520
Speaker 5: which we'll talk about a little bit later in the

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00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:26,800
Speaker 5: Cajuns yep, we.

426
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,240
Speaker 4: Talked about earlier.

427
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 3: If you can explain why a team is playing better,

428
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,160
Speaker 3: maybe then there's a good reason for it. Georgia State

429
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,199
Speaker 3: was the preseason favorite in this league. They have a

430
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 3: ton of experience, and they were really not healthy for

431
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,399
Speaker 3: a while. They had a second straight season with COVID

432
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,679
Speaker 3: issues for that reason. Fun fact, guys, Georgia State and

433
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 3: Texas State have not played since before COVID, two straight

434
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:53,280
Speaker 3: seat regular seasons where they did not meet. But Georgia

435
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 3: State won nine of their final ten, seven straight down

436
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 3: the stretch, and it is directly because they are healthier.

437
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:03,400
Speaker 3: They're living back up to expectations. They're the fifth best

438
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 3: team per Ken Palm, but that's because they've been weighed

439
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,480
Speaker 3: down by some of those performances where they're not at

440
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 3: full strength. They lost a Rhode Island by forty at

441
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 3: one point this year and they're missing like four of

442
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,120
Speaker 3: their top six players, so some of those things depressing

443
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:19,160
Speaker 3: their predictive rankings. I was wanting to bet Georgia State,

444
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,200
Speaker 3: but I didn't like the plus two seventy I was seeing. Fortunately,

445
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 3: my guy Kai poked me and said, you're not line shopping, Jim,

446
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,360
Speaker 3: what the heck are you doing plus four hundred at

447
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 3: Bette River's barstool. I was a large fan of that.

448
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,639
Speaker 3: I think Georgia State is the best team. It's a

449
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 3: difficult path for them, for sure, because it's so balanced,

450
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:38,679
Speaker 3: but plus four hundred.

451
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:39,159
Speaker 4: Has some appeal to me.

452
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 5: I'll add real quick, I'm a little bit scared about

453
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 5: Georgia State because Arkansas State wolves like don't you Derek

454
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,439
Speaker 5: par revolves to bad kind you know, and Matt they

455
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,359
Speaker 5: haven't played each other this year. Arkansas State is not

456
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 5: played Georgia State. There is no blueprint for either team here.

457
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,159
Speaker 5: That's a dangerous team. You're looking at, Matt, you know

458
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,679
Speaker 5: who I kind of like more and more your Mountaineers,

459
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 5: the defending champs. You the value is there, they're there,

460
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 5: they have a buy and they've won it before, they won.

461
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 4: It last year.

462
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, the coach team, same players.

463
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they have like they're built like a team

464
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 2: that can get hot, right, they have a couple the

465
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 2: two or three really prolific scores that can just ride

466
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 2: a hothand for for two or three games. But yeah,

467
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 2: I think the keything dimension here is you're right. So

468
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 2: Texas State Troy are the one to four seeds on

469
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 2: the top of the bracket. They both get their buys,

470
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 2: and then Georgia State app State the three two seeds

471
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 2: at the bottom of the bracket.

472
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 1: They both get a buy.

473
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:33,399
Speaker 2: The playing games before have an extra day off before

474
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 2: that quarter final matchup, unlike in the Valley, you have

475
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,960
Speaker 2: to go four and four days. So that's why I

476
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 2: think it opens up the field more to teams like

477
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 2: Arkansas State, to teams like Coastal Carolina, to teams like

478
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,439
Speaker 2: South Alabama, who has a lot of talent that we

479
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 2: were pretty high on preseason.

480
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 3: At the five shoo, I just want to shoot down.

481
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:54,359
Speaker 3: So the odds are basically equal to all the teams

482
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 3: with a bye. Granted, their first round game is not hard,

483
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,159
Speaker 3: but they have to win four games and they have

484
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,919
Speaker 3: injury issues. So South Alabama is the worst bet on

485
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 3: the board value wise.

486
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 5: Retroy per my Quick calculations here. They've beaten every team

487
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 5: in the league except Little Rock. They lost a little

488
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 5: They beat everybody else in the league, so that's not

489
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 5: a gimme four seed team there.

490
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,160
Speaker 1: They also lost Louisiana, so two teams boom.

491
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 3: There you go, Oh Louisiana, let's talk Louisa. Matt, why

492
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 3: don't we.

493
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 1: Oh, just my best bet? No worries.

494
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a uh it looks like a flyer.

495
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,440
Speaker 2: I don't think it's as crazy as the odds indicate.

496
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 2: They are plus two thousand at what book? Did I

497
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 2: see that at barstool slash plus two thousand? Yeah, folks,

498
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,159
Speaker 2: this is a team that I thought was one of

499
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 2: the maybe the best team coming in to the season.

500
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 2: They've had a myriad of injuries. I've mentioned this to

501
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:49,679
Speaker 2: kind Jim, but like I read a lot about it's

502
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 2: a very well covered team. Bob Marlins is a very

503
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 2: transparent coach. He has basically set up his entire regular

504
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 2: season to gear up for this tournament. Like he explicitly says,

505
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 2: like I am I like our team in the postseason

506
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 2: the Connor servants setting, like I am gearing up my

507
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: whole rotations.

508
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 1: He's been tinkering.

509
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 2: I think that A gives them a very undervalued price

510
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 2: and B just sets them up for a big time

511
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 2: surge because they have a massive upside. Problem is they

512
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 2: have to go through Texas State in the quarter of

513
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 2: finals if they get past Arlington. Texas State has been

514
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 2: nothing short of rock solid. Right, there's one team who's

515
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 2: been just good start to finish all year, it's been

516
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: Texas State. But I think that value is insane, just

517
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 2: the way they're getting healthier. Yeah, they got to win

518
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 2: again four games in five days. But plus two thousand, Yes,

519
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 2: that is my best beton Miss hell Mary for me.

520
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I will probably take a little of the Georgia

521
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 3: State plus or some of the Georgia State plus four

522
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 3: hundred and a little of the two thousand there.

523
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 5: The plus two thousand, I think the value is there,

524
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 5: and I'm I'm with you. I'll probably take that a

525
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 5: little bit as well. With Louisiana. My concern is against

526
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 5: Texas State, they're own two. Against Georgia State, they're owing

527
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 5: to In South I've been with their own to one.

528
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 5: Against Sextus Arlington they're own too. They have failed to

529
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 5: be the top teams in the league. Pretty consistently they

530
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 5: be a state. They're on the other side of the bracket,

531
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 5: though I think they split with Troy, so for whatever reason,

532
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 5: they're just not beating good teams in some boubt, even

533
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 5: though we all probably agree they're among the most talented,

534
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 5: maybe the most talented.

535
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 2: They blow games on repeat. They have terrible ball security,

536
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 2: like they turn the ball over at will, and so

537
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 2: I'm sure I'll bet them, and I'll see them with

538
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 2: twenty five turnovers with five minutes ago in the second

539
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:19,439
Speaker 2: half against ut and be like, oh, yeah, that's why

540
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: I shouldn't have bet that stupid team.

541
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 3: But again, also used fourteen different starting lineups in twenty

542
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 3: seven games to underscore Mats in questions, like they have

543
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 3: not really gotten their lineup figured out, unlike Georgia State,

544
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 3: where they like they actually hit the crescendo towards late

545
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 3: in the year.

546
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 2: We've seen what they're good is now, Yeah, we really

547
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 2: haven't seen. You're kind of betting on seeing the best

548
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 2: version during this tournament where you're at Georgia State. It's

549
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:40,439
Speaker 2: like what you've seen like the last few weeks that

550
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 2: is the best version. Just can they carry that forth?

551
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 4: Yep?

552
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think we've labored this to death,

553
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 2: but I think it's worth it because this is the

554
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 2: best value conference to hone it on. So if you

555
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 2: believe what we're saying, follow us. If you don't dig

556
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 2: in yourself, I'm telling this is where you're gonna make money,

557
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 2: these type of conferences.

558
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 4: Yeah.

559
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 3: The other one, like Arkansas State, excuse me, has an

560
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 3: awesome trio, great point guard, scoring wing that's a transfer

561
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: from Arkansas, and then a monster double double machine inside.

562
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 3: I just don't think they're very well coached, and they

563
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 3: have a tough draw, and the Cajuns have slightly better

564
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,680
Speaker 3: odds at plus two thousand, So I can't recommend Arkansas

565
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 3: State in good faith with that.

566
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point, all right. Last conference on

567
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 2: the rundown here this SoCon. This one is played in Nashville,

568
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: and this one will require those teams that are in

569
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 2: the play in slot another ten team field two win

570
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 2: four games in four days, much.

571
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 1: Like the Archmen.

572
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 2: As turn that we talked fout at the Valley a

573
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 2: tall task, and for that reason, I think we should

574
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 2: take more of a similar process or a process of

575
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 2: elimination approach here as we kind of whittle down who's

576
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 2: really in contention to win this so etsu Citadel Mercer

577
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 2: in Western Carolina. While you can maybe talk me into

578
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 2: one or two of those as being in dark horse,

579
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 2: I don't think you're actually looking to bet them to

580
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,199
Speaker 2: come out of this bracket. The favorites are Furman and

581
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 2: chat New respectively, going off at plus one fifty and

582
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 2: plus two point fifty. Yes, I am surprised fellas that

583
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: my mocks are actually better value than Furman, But Kay,

584
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 2: you mentioned this in the outline. Furman is actually the

585
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 2: higher ranked team in Kent Palm, I think the analytics

586
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:12,159
Speaker 2: actually somehow prefer Furman.

587
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's weird. For wrong, it is weird.

588
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 5: I feel like the max the better team and Kim

589
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,239
Speaker 5: Palm did the simulation has Furman winning most of the

590
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 5: time in this My worry about Furman is Bob Ritchie

591
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 5: has not done well in this tournament.

592
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:26,200
Speaker 1: He's never made the dance.

593
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 5: He's owed four in this league, despite being pretty sure

594
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 5: a top three seed every tournament. In fact, he's ever

595
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 5: read the finals. His last two years, he's lost in

596
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 5: the quarters aka the opening round. He's been upset and

597
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 5: in the year two years before that he lost the

598
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 5: Semis so if you believe in history, which you should

599
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 5: not put too much stock in, Furman is not done

600
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,199
Speaker 5: well in this tournament and they have not got a tournament.

601
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 4: Jim, Yeah, I think the pricing is due to draws.

602
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,439
Speaker 3: Wofford is ranked way higher as the four seed than

603
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 3: anybody on the bottom half of the bracket, with Furman

604
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 3: down there at the two. But I disagree with that, guys.

605
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 3: Samford is the three seed and Kye tucked last tournament.

606
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 3: Sanford's beaten every single team in this league, all of them,

607
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 3: and I think they're a little bit underrated analytically, which

608
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 3: is making those simulations look better for Furman. But Sanmford

609
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 3: is a really tough draw. And Chattanooga, who has to

610
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 3: go through Wafford, which is ostensibly the tough draw as

611
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 3: being waffer by eight and eleven already this year. I

612
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 3: think they're a tough matchup with their big guards and

613
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 3: actually having power conference size inside. I think Wafford really

614
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 3: struggles with them, So I actually like the Chattanooga draw more.

615
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 3: They're also the best team in my eyes and have

616
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 3: the best price, So Nuga is the bet for me here.

617
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mu's not forget with Nuga too.

618
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 5: Don't forget VM I split with Wawford during the year,

619
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 5: not a guarantee Wofford who wins that first round game.

620
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 3: Although Jake Stevens for VM, I might not be that's

621
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 3: just a pating and said tournament. That's that's a bummer huge.

622
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 3: A like NUGA as well, Matthew.

623
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 2: I think it's a sweep for us in terms of

624
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,239
Speaker 2: best bets. I am all in on Nyuga. I think

625
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: there's a well first of all, kid, to go back

626
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 2: to your Bob Richie point. We love Bob Ritchie and

627
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 2: I'm inclined to think the recent history is more of

628
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 2: an anomaly than a trend. But he's two and four

629
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 2: against number since he took over has not covered by

630
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 2: an average of five points a game. So yeah, he has

631
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 2: not fared well in this setting. They've fallen short a

632
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 2: few times when they were in position to maybe crack

633
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 2: the dance. I like team good teams experience, yep, exactly,

634
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 2: So again, not sure there's anything to that. A six

635
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 2: game samples not something you want to make a decision on,

636
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 2: but it's certainly worth noting. Again my parallel that I

637
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 2: really like here for NUGA, which is also why I

638
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 2: like South Dakota State, in the Summit Vermont in the

639
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 2: America East, in New Mexico State and the whack all

640
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 2: teams that basically need to win their tournaments to get in,

641
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 2: and there's not really I mean, you can make an

642
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 2: at large case for Chattanooga, but I think the mindset

643
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: is they you can't can't do it, Okay, then no,

644
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: then shove me up, Brackettell.

645
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 1: I'll just thank you.

646
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 2: That's even better. But they gotta win the tournament. There's

647
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:56,439
Speaker 2: no sort of any risk of let up. There's no

648
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: risk of feeling safe about where they sit in terms of,

649
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 2: you know, security for the dance. I think this just

650
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 2: plays up well for those teams who for most of

651
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 2: the year and their conferences have looked like the best team.

652
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 2: I know, KNUGA had a couple of injuries, you know,

653
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 2: DESUSA was out late. I some think that's the best team,

654
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 2: the most dangerous team, most complete team, and I think

655
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 2: they're an awesome giant killer if they crack the dance.

656
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 2: I will be looking to back them in the Big

657
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 2: Dance if they can get through this tournament. But it

658
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,360
Speaker 2: should be a tough minefield. But they have a better

659
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 2: draw than Permern. You guys said it best.

660
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: I'm with you.

661
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the numbers are deceiving on who has

662
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 4: the better draw.

663
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 3: I will probably pair my Chattanooga plus two fifty with

664
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,400
Speaker 3: a little bit of Samford plus nineteen hundred because they

665
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 3: have been playing awesome down the stretch and they're like

666
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 3: Georgia State a little bit, and that they're playing better

667
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 3: because of health. They've gotten a lot more pieces back

668
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 3: into the lineup. Their star, freshman Wesley Cardett, hasn't been

669
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 3: playing lately, but I'm not as worried about that. Ques Glover,

670
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 3: their star is erratic but a monster. He's a Florida transfer.

671
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 3: That tells you how talented he is. They got some

672
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 3: other pieces that are down on transfers from Loyal, Chicago

673
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 3: and Akron, So I think Samford is the value bet

674
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 3: and Chattanooga is the right bet, so I'll take take

675
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 3: a little of each.

676
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 4: Yeah.

677
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 5: They're also high variants with how fast they play, so

678
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 5: that could be a good thing if you're going for

679
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 5: a flyer in this tournament.

680
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 1: Man, I'm all in on Yuga as well.

681
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 5: The dynamic guards plus the Power Conference big man plus

682
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 5: I think a good coach in lat Paris that checks

683
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 5: every box I think you're looking for at plus two fifty, yeah,

684
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 5: sign me up.

685
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 2: And he takes on the opening round playing game best

686
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 2: bets just in a one game setting, I have one.

687
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: That's why I bring it up.

688
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: The fact that Sanmford's projected is a dog to UNC Greensboro.

689
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 4: I don't I don't buy.

690
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 3: I just think Sanford is better in that three to

691
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 3: six game. I don't think the line will be dog.

692
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 3: I bet it's pick I'm or Stanford minus one on

693
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 3: a neutral, but I like the Bulldogs there. Matthew, what's

694
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 3: your round one proagnosis?

695
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: Well, that one's tougher for me. I probably stay away.

696
00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 2: I do like Watford in the VMI matchup the four

697
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 2: or five the winner who will probably take on new guy.

698
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 2: I just I think Wafford's size up front can punish

699
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 2: a potentially Jake steven Less via my team.

700
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 4: Uh.

701
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 2: The one that really intrigues me though, is Etsu Citadel

702
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 2: on Friday. Citadel. Now, I know they've been up and

703
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 2: down this season. Defense has been optional for most much

704
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: of the year. Dougar Malcolm is seven and two against

705
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 2: the spread in this commerce tournament since twenty sixteen. Covering

706
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 2: by an average of one point eight points a game,

707
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: So I don't know if there's anything there, but it's

708
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: worth noting. I don't love the match with Etsu, especially

709
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 2: because Etsu thoroughly dominated them last time they went out.

710
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 2: I'm hoping to catch a favorable price, but setnel and

711
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 2: back them in that opening round game against a team

712
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 2: that basically has six players and zero size up front.

713
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 3: They did split the regular season, so they've gone home

714
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 3: at Etsu, so that was that was impressive.

715
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 4: I think I buy that.

716
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 3: Matt Citadel also like they had the Hayden Brown kind

717
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 3: of had like growing hamstring issues late.

718
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 4: But he seems to be healthy, which is big.

719
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 2: First team All Conference guy, no question matters. Hey, Western

720
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 2: Carolina just speak Mercer too a couple like a week ago.

721
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: If you're if you're really crazy.

722
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,479
Speaker 3: Still know al Commercier seems like he's probably out. They

723
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 3: get Yeah in Western Carolina got Nick Robinson back, who

724
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 3: is huge, really really important for them.

725
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 4: He was a big part of that victory.

726
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 2: Yep, no doubt. Let's recap the best bets kids from

727
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 2: all four conferences. I'll start it off Missouri Valley. I

728
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 2: got Drake at plus five hundred or a round in

729
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 2: the neighborhood of that price. Again, please do your price

730
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 2: shopping WCC. I think it's really Gonzag or Bust. I

731
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 2: did take ken Zaga, but again I think both with

732
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 2: Drake and Gonzaga, I would play those for less. If

733
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 2: you're trying to tear these on a unit perspective, or

734
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 2: are just kind of parsing out how confident I am

735
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 2: in each Some Belt Louisiana, Lafayette, the Raging Cagan's Hill,

736
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 2: Mary At plus two thousand and then SoCon seems like

737
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 2: we have a three man weak consensus with Chattanooga, LaMotte,

738
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 2: Paris and the Boys.

739
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 3: Max jim Man, I'm joining you on Drake. I was

740
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 3: late swayed off of Missouri State because of the matchup

741
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 3: history between the two. Missouri State swept both, but it

742
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 3: felt like revenge from last year. Drake gave them some heartbreakers,

743
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 3: and then just watching those games felt a little unsustainable.

744
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 3: I think Drake was the better team. So Drake plus

745
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 3: five hundred in the Missouri Valley West Coast, Gonzaga I'm

746
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 3: probably throwing in a parlayer two. Maybe Zag's minus three

747
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 3: seventy five and Murray State minus one ninety or Colgate

748
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: minus one eighty five, something like that, and then sun Belt,

749
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 3: I'm with you on the Cajuns plus two thousand, I

750
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 3: think that's worth it. And then scooping up that plus

751
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 3: four hundred on Georgia State team that I think is

752
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 3: playing much better and will actually win the event, and

753
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 3: in Soakon doing the same thing taking the favorite. I

754
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 3: like Most Chattanooga plus two fifty and one flyer on

755
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:40,479
Speaker 3: Sanford plus nineteen hundred.

756
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 5: Well, it's nothing new, something exciting here in the valley.

757
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 5: If you bet Drake, you and I and Most State

758
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 5: and one of them wins, you're guarantee to profit if

759
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 5: you get them all around plus five hundred.

760
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 1: So that's intriguing to me. I might throw something on

761
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 1: all three of those teams.

762
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 4: Call that the Loyola Faye.

763
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think Loyls priced correctly. I think they should

764
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 5: be the favorite here, but I don't think there's value

765
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 5: on betting them Gonzaga unless you love laying major juice,

766
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 5: I probably would would not recommend it. I like what

767
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 5: Gym's doing in parlaying it with some other heavy favorites

768
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 5: to win the tournament.

769
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: Vermont Murray State are good ones. Or take San Francisco

770
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 1: as a flyer.

771
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 5: I don't think it's going to happen, though Sun Belt,

772
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 5: I'm the same as Jim Georgia State in the Cajuns

773
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 5: probably would be buy money lies, although I'm heavily considering

774
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 5: Appleation State at plus six hundred and then SoCon again

775
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 5: chatting to you guys, and I like Jim Sanford play

776
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 5: as well worth a flyer.

777
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 3: Boom.

778
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 1: That's all we got, folks. Thanks for stopping by.

779
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 2: A ton of action popping out from the Action Network

780
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 2: the next seven days and into the crux of March Madness.

781
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 2: Stay tuned, Come back and join us. This weekend is Saturday.

782
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 2: Maybe theyre BBOC with stock hosting. We'll hope you get

783
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 2: some best buy winners out there, but I hope he's joined.

784
00:33:51,440 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 1: Come back next week