1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 2: Let me give pause the hardcovers ninety nine douts. Okay, 7 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 2: that's the way Peter Trueberitz rolls, he said, the London 8 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 2: School of Economics definitive at LBJ in Texas, and of 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 2: course with the Phalans Center at lc Peter, you're the 10 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: first name I asked for. With all that we've seen 11 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,319 Speaker 2: this morning, where are we in a month? How does 12 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 2: mister Putin respond to what we witnessed in the last 13 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 2: seventy two hours. 14 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 3: It's great to be with you. I can't believe they're 15 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 3: charge in ninety nine bucks for that book. But in 16 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 3: any event, you know, I think Putin is a pretty 17 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 3: happy camper right now, especially after everything that unfolded last week, 18 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 3: and of course, you know, in particular following the fiasco 19 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 3: in the Oval office between Trump and and Zelenski. I 20 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 3: think what has been underscored here for anybody that didn't 21 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 3: really realize it is that Donald Trump doesn't have Kiev's back, 22 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 3: and that has thrown everything into I don't know, like 23 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 3: fast motion. I mean, what has happened in Europe, in 24 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 3: London over the weekend has just been kind of as 25 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 3: they try to figure out some kind of way to 26 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 3: write reship. 27 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 2: Okay, in your book Geopolitics and Democracy, Oxford University Press, 28 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 2: you have a perfect phrase for this moment that all 29 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: of our listeners and viewers feel, and that is reaping 30 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 2: the whirlwind? Can the traditional processes the trueber Ritz is 31 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 2: lectured on for decades, The Chathamhouse has talked about see 32 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:28,240 Speaker 2: a fire and all the rest. Peter can reaping this whirlwind? 33 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 2: Can those traditional processes work or do we need something new? 34 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 3: It's a great question, Tom, I mean, I would say 35 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:45,839 Speaker 3: right now the standard kinds of checks and balances are 36 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 3: not in play. So the most obvious one when you 37 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 3: think domestically, is Congress serving as a check on the 38 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 3: president and so forth. To me, I think one of 39 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 3: the most interesting parts of the developments in the Trump 40 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 3: administration in Trump two point zero is the way that 41 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:09,799 Speaker 3: his cabinet positions have been filled. He is essentially structured. 42 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:13,079 Speaker 3: It's in such a way that everything is coming out 43 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 3: of the Oval Office and there is no opportunity for 44 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 3: any check or blocking coalition to emerge among his cabinet officials. 45 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 3: Where are his generals? There's nothing horizontal there. And I 46 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 3: will say internationally, I mean it seems to me with 47 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 3: respect to the Allies, he's just got them on the run. 48 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 3: I mean, he is leveraging America's market, and he is 49 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 3: leveraging America's power to extract concessions. And what makes it 50 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 3: very difficult, I think, from whether it's from Canada to 51 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 3: the UK, to France to Germany, is they don't know 52 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 3: where this will stop, and so there's no obvious kind 53 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 3: of break there. The one place he's certain to get 54 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 3: pushback is from Beijing. 55 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 4: So are you surprised, Peter that there hasn't been any 56 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 4: pushback from saying, oh, I don't know Congress on some 57 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 4: of these policy pronouncements or what happened in you have 58 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 4: the office last week. 59 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 3: I'm disappointed. I'm not surprised, but i'm personally, you know, 60 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 3: when I look at this and think about it in 61 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 3: terms of what's good for the United States over the 62 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:36,479 Speaker 3: long haul, over the horizon, you know, I'm disappointed. By it, 63 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 3: but I'm not surprised. I'm not surprised for at least 64 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 3: two reasons. One is Donald Trump owns the Republican Party, 65 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 3: and they're just people that are too afraid of stepping 66 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 3: out of line. And I think that that for a 67 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 3: lot of people, they think that the system can that is, 68 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 3: the international system can, you know, basically suffer a fair 69 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 3: amount of I don't know what you want to call it, 70 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 3: like damage. So yeah, okay, so they imposes tariffs and 71 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 3: the tariff rates overall go up, the world won't come 72 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 3: to an end. I mean, it seems to me that 73 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 3: even you know, big names on Wall Street like Jamie 74 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 3: Diamond have gotten themselves to that point so that they're 75 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 3: prepared to see some kind of slippage from the traditional 76 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 3: rules based order that Republican and Democratic presidents alike agreed to. 77 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 2: Our Conversation of the Day with Peter Truutz we continue 78 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 2: he's professor at the London School of Economics, barely defines 79 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 2: his contribution to civics in America with his building of 80 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:49,479 Speaker 2: all the politics of the LBJ School at Texas as well. 81 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 4: Paul So Peter, we saw over the weekend, UK Prime 82 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 4: Minister cure Starmer talk about forging a coalition of the 83 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 4: willing to secure Ukraine? Is that even tell to us 84 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 4: about that? How do you think about that? 85 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, Paul, it's good question. I mean, it's possible, but 86 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 3: if anything, it's anything but a given, I would say, 87 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 3: And that's because any coalition that does emerge is likely 88 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:20,799 Speaker 3: to be a coalition of the unwilling, not rather than 89 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 3: the willing. I mean, the crux of the problem here 90 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 3: is that European leaders do not want to put boots 91 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 3: on the ground as part of a peacekeeping force within 92 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 3: Ukraine without a US security backstop in the form of 93 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 3: you know, aircraft, anti missile batteries, intelligence data, satellite info. 94 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 3: And Trump has basically thus far been unwilling to at 95 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 3: least publicly commit to such a backstop. And I think, 96 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,799 Speaker 3: I mean, the other news item that's getting no attention 97 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 3: today is he's got a meeting with the Mark Rubio 98 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 3: and hetcof you know about what the response is going 99 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 3: to be, and it seems like you know, the choices 100 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 3: are between canceling or suspending. That's positive. 101 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: I got to interrupt here, and this is this is 102 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 2: totally unfair to you and not the way surveillance rules. 103 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 2: But everyone's thinking about it, whatever they're politics, should the 104 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 2: Secretary of State resign? 105 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 3: So my view, and I've said this and I'm on 106 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 3: the record, I believe he won't last very long. So 107 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 3: and that's because it's pretty clear anybody that was watching 108 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 3: on Friday or watched the Saturday Night Lives boof of 109 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 3: It realizes that Marco Rubio is very uncomfortable, is basically 110 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 3: pivoting one hundred and eighty degrees from things that he 111 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 3: said about the war Putin's War in Ukraine two years ago, 112 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 3: you know. And so the question is can he carry 113 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 3: the brief and you know, you know or not? To me, 114 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 3: he seems like he's not a particularly relevant player in 115 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 3: the administration. 116 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 2: Years ago, folks, you had to walk around campus if 117 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 2: you wanted to be a girl magnet, you had to 118 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 2: walk around with a black and white cover book Reagan's 119 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 2: Legacy in a World Transformed and Young Troubowitz, Elliot Cohen's 120 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 2: in the book, Paul Kanger, others Young Troubowitz is in there. 121 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 2: The Balancer, Ronald Reagan, Party politics and US Grand Strategy. 122 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 2: You're in a classroom right now, and that's smart. Alec 123 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney's in the back row, half asleep, and he 124 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 2: raises his hand, Professor, and he says, what's after Trump? 125 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 2: Do you see a permanence to this Republican effort of 126 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 2: the President of the United States, or do you look 127 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 2: at Donald Trump as a one off? 128 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 3: I think the answer here is that it's possible. Look, 129 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 3: States is very divided. We all know that, and not 130 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 3: everybody agrees with this. If you look at the polling 131 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 3: and so forth, the country is divided on so many 132 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 3: of these questions. So it's quite possible that two years 133 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 3: from now, you know, Trump, the Republicans lose the Congress, 134 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 3: everything grinds to a halt, and a Democrat comes back 135 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 3: in four years from now and tries to change things. 136 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 3: But imagine this from the standpoint, this is the kind 137 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 3: of thing I hear over here as an Americans talking 138 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 3: to Europeans and so forth. What kind of credibility I mean, 139 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 3: if this can happen, if it can happen, you know, 140 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,959 Speaker 3: if it can happen under Donald Trump, can happen at 141 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 3: this point, and it happened four years ago, it could 142 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 3: happen again. And I think these things have a kind 143 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:54,560 Speaker 3: of they're sticky, and it's hard to just turn things back. 144 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 3: So I think what is happening is, you know, we're 145 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 3: seeing parts the rules based order that has been in 146 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 3: place more or less for eighty years. It's fraying, it's unraveling, 147 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,239 Speaker 3: and we're going to head into different territory. 148 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 2: It seems to me. 149 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 4: Peter, you're a professor of international relations at the London 150 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 4: School of Economics. You're an American in London. How do 151 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 4: our European allies, who have been our allies since World 152 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 4: War Two? How do they perceive what's going on now? 153 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 4: How concerned are they that eighty years of I guess 154 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 4: relations and policy and strategies seem to be you know, 155 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 4: kind of at risk here. 156 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 3: Yeah, they're freaked out. I mean, look big, they have 157 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 3: a war on their doorstep. You know, this is not 158 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 3: the first time. Let me just say too, this is 159 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 3: not the first time that an American president has put, 160 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 3: if you will, the screws to Europe over security. Richard 161 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:57,559 Speaker 3: Nixon shut you know, tried to shake down America's allies 162 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 3: back in the nineteen seventies. You Tom, you'll remember this, 163 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 3: when he threatened to slash American troop presence there if 164 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 3: they didn't start spending more on defense. But the difference 165 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 3: between then and today is there wasn't an active war 166 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 3: on Europe's doorsteps. So this really has their attention. But 167 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 3: the question, you know Europe, is that the EU does 168 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 3: not make a decision on a dime and like turn 169 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 3: on a dime. So and they have trouble coming up 170 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 3: with They've had trouble always coming up with coherent foreign policy, 171 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 3: a security. I remember the day, not obviously they're going 172 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 3: to get there. 173 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 2: I remember the day de Goaale wouldn't let American jets 174 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 2: fly over France on their way to somewhere to bomb somebody. 175 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 2: One final question, Professor trueber it's a good friend of 176 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 2: the show. Robert Hormant's, with all of his public service, 177 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:54,439 Speaker 2: wrote a book ten years ago, The Price of Liberty, 178 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 2: Paying for America's Wars. Harmant's grand theory out of Tufts 179 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 2: is simple. If your fiscal house is an order, you 180 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 2: can't get it done. Russia's fiscal house is not an order. 181 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 2: Europe's fiscal house is not an order. Decidedly, America's fiscal 182 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 2: house is not an order. How does that play out? 183 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 3: I think the US has much more running room than 184 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 3: the other two that you mentioned, and so you know, 185 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 3: I mean the implication of what you're saying is that 186 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 3: everybody will Each of these countries has an incentive to retrench. 187 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:37,680 Speaker 3: The problem here is some of Putin. If he sees 188 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 3: the United States pulling back in Europe, that's exactly what 189 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 3: he wants. He wants to be able to divide Europe 190 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 3: from the United States. This is did not start with Putin. 191 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 3: This was the old Soviet strategy as well. It's been 192 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 3: Russian policy for a very long time. So he will 193 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 3: double down if he sees that goal in site deficit 194 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 3: or no deficit. 195 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 2: I think thank you so much for the time. Peter 196 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 2: Trubwitz at LC just definitive with an American political thought 197 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,439 Speaker 2: thinking forward the new effort. I can't say enough about it. 198 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:19,439 Speaker 2: Two arded some pages geopolitics and democracy from Trubwitz out 199 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 2: of Oxford. Thank you so much. 200 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 1: This morning, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch 201 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern 202 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 1: Listen on Apple, Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg 203 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,560 Speaker 1: Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 204 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 2: Joining us now Jack Divine with us. He's fond of 205 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 2: the ARCA group, and as we had the other day 206 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 2: with micknlloy, this is people that actually know what they're 207 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 2: talking about. Jack Divine, thank you so much with your 208 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 2: work at the Central Intelligence Agency. If I, as a 209 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:02,200 Speaker 2: hack say, do we tell diligence about what the Kremlin's thinking? 210 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 2: Discuss that, do we know what's going on? Do we 211 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 2: know what's going on in Moscow? Or do we know 212 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 2: what's going on in Beijing? 213 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,079 Speaker 5: He always asked me tough questions. I hope so was 214 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 5: the first answer. I think the key word in your 215 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 5: question is thinking. There is I think the intelligence community 216 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 5: knows where the armies are positioned, and the battlefield strategy 217 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 5: and the latest weapons. Thinking has always been the toughest channel, 218 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 5: the toughest, not the crack And sometimes we've been extraordinarily 219 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 5: good at knowing what's going on, and other times not 220 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 5: so well. So I'm hopeful that we are keeping up 221 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 5: with the tradition, but I'm not betting on it. 222 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 4: Hey, Jack, what did you make with a little bit 223 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 4: of hindsight here? What do you make of what happened 224 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 4: in the White House with the President of Zelensky and 225 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 4: President Trump and Vice President in advance last week. 226 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 5: I think a lot of hundreds have been covering this, 227 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 5: and from various I mean, I think if I stood back, 228 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 5: I would say, first of all, this is a moment 229 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 5: in time. This is not the endgame, right, and everyone's 230 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 5: focused on the pieces here and at some point I'd 231 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 5: like to go beyond that. But I think this is 232 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 5: a question of people coming to the table not having 233 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 5: primed the pump sufficiently to have the right time to discussion. 234 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 5: And I think Zelinsky was arriving at the table with 235 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 5: a list, his wish list, right, and putin sitting over 236 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 5: at Moscow with a wish list. What they're not getting 237 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 5: is the negotiations haven't really quite started. That starts when 238 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 5: everybody agrees that they're going to be negotiation. So I 239 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 5: think they jumped the gun here, and I think there 240 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 5: was a lot of rievances and build up anxiety in 241 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 5: the room across the broad spectrum. Obviously it wasn't the 242 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 5: best start, but I think we moved. I think we're 243 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 5: going to move quickly beyond that, because there's inevitability about 244 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 5: where we end up. 245 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 4: In my view, Jack, we've all kind of grown up 246 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 4: here in this post World War two environment where there's 247 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 4: a certain set of real relationships and policies. Is President 248 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 4: Trump fundamentally changing those long held positions by the East 249 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 4: and the. 250 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 5: West we're looking at in the Trump administration is not 251 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 5: a minor shift. I mean, I think everything, every aspect 252 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 5: of moderate modern life and relationships is being put to 253 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 5: put to a test, right, And the question is do 254 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 5: we come out of it better at the end. But 255 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 5: the one thing I'm absolutely convinced of is that we're 256 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 5: entering this We're really entering the century now, this is 257 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 5: really the beginning of the twenty first century. I think 258 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 5: President Trump is the engine of major changes and relationships 259 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 5: and evaluations. And so I think everything is on the table, 260 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 5: and I think people are saying it sometimes we don't 261 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 5: listen well, but you know, the administrations, everything's on the table. 262 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 5: So I think when the deck is reshuffled. However, let's 263 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 5: me just say that I think our alliance is our 264 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,679 Speaker 5: alliance is our enemy or our enemies. But how you 265 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 5: handle it and where you go is the process of 266 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:11,159 Speaker 5: being worked out. And in the process when you have 267 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 5: that type of change, this pain. 268 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 2: I look, Jack divine people at risk here, and part 269 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 2: of the risk is the you know the cinema of 270 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 2: Tom Hanks and the idea of a Berlin Wall or 271 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 2: some form of divide an iron curtain, as we know 272 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 2: from our ute. And the answer is, are we redeveloping 273 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:35,679 Speaker 2: with an isolationist America some form of new iron curtain. 274 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 5: I don't think that's the trust. I think people are 275 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 5: misreading what I think is happening. I think what we're 276 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 5: looking at here is a negotiation to bring a war 277 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 5: to an end where both parties really need to do that. 278 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 5: I've been saying on your show for a couple of years. 279 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 5: Once you get this stale meat, the cessation of firing, 280 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 5: and then you get the some deal. You know too 281 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 5: many people are thinking that Putin's holding really strong cards. 282 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 5: He has nuclear weapons, but is the prospect of amusing 283 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 5: it a very very emote. This is the word is 284 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 5: not going well for every party, So how is it 285 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 5: going to be reshuffled? And I think part of it 286 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 5: will mean actually a lessening of friction if the deal, 287 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 5: the art of the deal is executed is I think 288 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 5: it may. 289 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 2: Be out of time. We got to get Jackson again, 290 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, really really appreciate it. With the 291 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 2: ARC and group, just love having him and I got 292 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 2: about eight more questions, but you know we can't do it. 293 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, he's seen it all time. 294 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 2: We'll have Jack Divine with his work at the CIA 295 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,400 Speaker 2: on again. Just incredible experience. 296 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 297 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 298 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 299 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 300 00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,080 Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty joining us. 301 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 2: Saw Lori, Kelvissina, Piet you had a corner this Morne, 302 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,959 Speaker 2: you had a total bart some sameel done. We have 303 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 2: to have Kelvacina. Why don't you bring her in? I 304 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 2: have to You mean it was before I'd had my 305 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 2: first tang and you were going nuts. We have to 306 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 2: have Calvicina. 307 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 4: Now we got it, bring her out? How good is that? 308 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 4: From the lawn at Charlottesville, Virginia. Lorie calvecein ahead of 309 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 4: US Equity Strategy RBC Capital Markets, Lorii are you We've 310 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 4: had We had a little bit of a draw down, 311 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 4: as Tom would say, I kind of called a sell 312 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 4: off back in the day. But the kids called a 313 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 4: draw down you know, three four five percent over you know, 314 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,880 Speaker 4: the first part of the year. What did you make 315 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 4: of that? And kind of how do you feel about 316 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 4: just the market levels right here? 317 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 6: Sure, so thanks for having me on as always, And look, 318 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 6: this has been a big point of discussion over the 319 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,439 Speaker 6: last few weeks. Our view has been that the market's 320 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 6: overdue for a five to ten percent draw down from peak, 321 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 6: and that is you know, I know that sounds scary, right, 322 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 6: but we have done a whole bunch of those since 323 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 6: twenty twenty two, and that's pretty much what a garden 324 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 6: variety pullback has been in the post twenty twenty two era. 325 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 6: If you think about sort of about our lows last week, 326 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 6: we weren't even quite down five percent. And I was joking, 327 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 6: you know, when I was talking to investors last week, 328 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 6: the dip that we had felt a whole lot worse 329 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 6: than it was in terms of the price action. We've 330 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 6: started to see anxiety come back, you know, I think 331 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 6: tariffs were finally starting to see people question the idea 332 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 6: of whether or not they're actually a negotiation tactic. That 333 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 6: was a big shift last week, and that helped push 334 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 6: us to that kind of you know, four percent plus 335 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 6: ish draw down level. 336 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 7: But look, you know, our base case. 337 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 6: Has been that we could get to sixty six hundred 338 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 6: on the SMP at the end of the year with 339 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 6: at least one of those five to ten percent drawdowns. 340 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 6: We never thought it was going to be an easy path. 341 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 6: But I will tell you, you know, Paul, as we've 342 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:43,439 Speaker 6: been talking to investors about if that doesn't hold, what's next. 343 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 6: You know, we do think the risks of a growth 344 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 6: scare a fourteen to twenty percent draw down, similar to 345 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 6: what we saw in twenty ten, twenty eleven, twenty fifteen, sixteen, 346 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 6: and twenty eighteen when markets were fearful of a recession 347 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 6: or a systemic issue that didn't end up quite happening. 348 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:01,639 Speaker 6: You know, we sort of got the fear, but we 349 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 6: didn't get the event. We think those risks are starting 350 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 6: to grow again. It's not in my base case, but 351 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 6: if we're being intellectually honest with people, we think the 352 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 6: risk of something worse than a ten percent draw down 353 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 6: is starting to move up a little. 354 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 4: I mean, you know, folks out there, if you ever 355 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 4: get an opportunity to get a meeting with Lori Cavalsina, 356 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,880 Speaker 4: take it because some really really good stuff. I'm looking 357 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 4: at your chart book here, lots of good pictures. I 358 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,159 Speaker 4: like pictures because they help me understand things. But I 359 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,360 Speaker 4: kind of feel like earnings are as important as they've 360 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 4: been for an equity market as they've been for a 361 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,439 Speaker 4: long time, because I don't think the Federal Reserve Laurie's 362 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 4: going to do a lot for me this year. How 363 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 4: do you feel about earnings? 364 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 6: You know I'm the same way, Paul. I don't think 365 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,159 Speaker 6: we're going to get multiple expansion. I do think that 366 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 6: the earnings growth outlook makes sense based on the information 367 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,239 Speaker 6: we have at the moment, but things could change, and 368 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 6: I will tell you, as we've gone through and looked 369 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 6: at what companies are saying about tariffs in particular, they 370 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 6: really didn't start to have detailed discussions until after February first, 371 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 6: the first deadline on Mexico and in Canada that passed. 372 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 6: And if you look at what companies have said since then, 373 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 6: some of them are starting to bake some tariff impacts 374 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 6: into their guidance, but others are saying even some that 375 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 6: have acknowledged it would be a significant hit to them 376 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 6: haven't baked it into the numbers yet either. So we're 377 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 6: sitting at two seventy one. You know, that's a healthy 378 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,439 Speaker 6: growth rate, but we do see some pressures on that 379 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 6: starting to emerge. And you've seen the earning's expectations on 380 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,400 Speaker 6: the bottom up consensus drift lower a few bucks as 381 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 6: this reporting season has gone on. 382 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 2: In our morning commute, Lori Kelvisina RBC Capital Markets on YouTube. 383 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. Dazzled by the international reach there. 384 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 2: Thank you so much across the evening Pacific rim the 385 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:42,199 Speaker 2: afternoon Europe for your attention to Bloomberg Surveillance and to 386 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:46,399 Speaker 2: Laurie Calvesina, Laurie, if I say to you we're in 387 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 2: a bull market, and I say to you, corporations adapt, 388 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,679 Speaker 2: how will they adapt forward given the political noise. 389 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 6: It's an interesting question, Tom, because we haven't really seen 390 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 6: a big spate of downward guidance or upward guidance. I 391 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,880 Speaker 6: don't think companies know where to put the bar right now. 392 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,359 Speaker 6: And you know, we we sort of looked as we 393 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 6: went through one week to the next in reporting season, 394 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 6: it started out very optimistic, and that optimism really started 395 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 6: to get eclipsed by uncertainty. And I wouldn't say there's 396 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 6: pessimism among corporates. The conference boards CEO surveys certainly told 397 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 6: us they're still feeling better than they were last fall. 398 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 6: We don't really know from that survey how they compare 399 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 6: now versus January. But you know, one thing that came 400 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 6: to mind as we were talking to investors last week 401 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 6: was going back to that twenty fifteen twenty sixteen in 402 00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 6: industrial recession where we had resilient consumers and then we 403 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 6: had more pessimism in the corporate sector, especially that industrial 404 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 6: and energy part of the economy, and it was just 405 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 6: sort of an asynchronous business cycle. We had a bit 406 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 6: of a market you know, pullback, but we we didn't 407 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 6: really ever come close, you know, to kind of the 408 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,160 Speaker 6: recession capital our territory. 409 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 7: And so as we've watched some of these. 410 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 6: Consumer sentiment surveys slide and we've seen the contrast with 411 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 6: the CEO levels of confidence have stayed much more resilient. 412 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 6: You know, one point of conversation came off, well, maybe 413 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 6: we're going to do something like the flip of that 414 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 6: right where we have some consumer pressure but the corporate 415 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 6: sector stays resilient. I'm not saying that's where we're headed necessarily, 416 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 6: but it's one, you know, kind of idea and thought 417 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:16,119 Speaker 6: that started to emerge. 418 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 4: Laurie, I know. And I'm just going through your slide 419 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 4: deck and wow, one hundred and fifty pages. I'm on 420 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 4: page four refreshing. 421 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 7: I'm sorry, I'm sorry, it gets too long. 422 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,360 Speaker 2: Francis Donald does not do one hundred and fifty page decks. 423 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like a six I'm plowing through it. You 424 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 4: have a year end twenty twenty five s and p. 425 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 4: Five hundred barecase of five thousand, seven hundred and seventy five? 426 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 4: What would get you there? What would push it down? 427 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 7: So we put that back. 428 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 6: We put that out back in November, and we have 429 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 6: refreshed the math around that, and there are a couple 430 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 6: of ways that we could get there. One of them 431 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 6: is not really worrisome to me right now. We have 432 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 6: done some modeling on evaluation work. If we got ten 433 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 6: year treasury yields up to five percent move up in inflation, 434 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 6: that you know, when we did the math on that, right, 435 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 6: that could have gotten us down to sort of the 436 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,679 Speaker 6: fifty six hundred ish type mark, which pulled that barecase 437 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 6: down our sentiment work. Frankly, I mean centiment's so bad 438 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,440 Speaker 6: it's starting to be a good setup. On a twelve 439 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 6: months forward basis, that would have pulled the number up 440 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 6: a little bit. But the other thing, you know, putting 441 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 6: the ten year yield issue aside, because we were taking 442 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 6: the message right that the Treasury is really focused on 443 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 6: keeping ten year yields lower. I think you have to 444 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:29,879 Speaker 6: look at economic growth, and this was one of the 445 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 6: things we really focused on in our year ahead outlook 446 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,919 Speaker 6: was two percent GDP at the time was forecast for 447 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 6: this year. That's now up to two three. Two to 448 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 6: three a very very healthy environment for the stock market. 449 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 6: It typically goes up you have strong gains, you know, 450 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 6: and kind of the low teens ten percent ish type numbers. 451 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 6: But if you slip into a one to two percent 452 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,640 Speaker 6: GDP environment, stocks are usually down more often than they're up, 453 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,560 Speaker 6: and we have on average about a three percent decline 454 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,439 Speaker 6: in the market in those kinds of years. So we 455 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 6: worry that some of these economic headwinds could potentially start 456 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 6: to push GDP expectations down, not a recession, but something 457 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,160 Speaker 6: like one and a half percent GDP. 458 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 7: And I think Francis's number, by the way, is one 459 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,399 Speaker 7: to nine. You know it could push you into a 460 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 7: troublesome territory. 461 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,880 Speaker 6: Markets do not like sluggish growth, so that's one way 462 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 6: you could easily get there. 463 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 2: What do companies do given this strange thing, sluggish growth? 464 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 2: Does M and A pick up among the Russell two thousand? 465 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 6: Well, look, I think we're we're seeing a slow start 466 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 6: to M and A this year, and a lot of 467 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 6: people are scratching their heads as. 468 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,199 Speaker 7: To why that will happen. You know, I think if 469 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 7: you look at the. 470 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,800 Speaker 6: CEO confidence survey again from the conference board, they also 471 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 6: showed that employment expectations came in just a little bit, 472 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 6: so I think as economic, you know, sort of concerns emerge. 473 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,320 Speaker 6: You know, everyone's asked about capex. We haven't seen any 474 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 6: shift in capex expectations in the survey data, but you 475 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 6: have seen a little bit of ratcheting down on employment expectations, 476 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 6: even given what we've had so far. And you know, 477 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 6: you've also seen that sluggish start to M and A. 478 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:03,720 Speaker 7: We have a good chart. 479 00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,399 Speaker 6: I forget what pagees on in the deck, but it 480 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 6: shows you that M and A overtime does tend to 481 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 6: track CEO confidence. 482 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,360 Speaker 7: I can't remember where any of the pages are. I'm 483 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 7: not gonna lie. 484 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,719 Speaker 2: Sance as donald as a six page deck. Okay, Russell 485 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 2: two thousand, I'm down thirteen percent in the vicinity of 486 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:24,400 Speaker 2: December fifteenth, Laurie, I'm down fourteen percent on Russell two 487 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 2: thousand and forty percent annualize, and I've strapped two standard 488 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 2: deviations plus all the way down negative two standard deviations. 489 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,640 Speaker 2: Is it Russell two thousand in a bear market? 490 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,959 Speaker 6: So, I mean, the Russell has been under pressure for 491 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 6: so long, and we've had nothing but you know, sort 492 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,680 Speaker 6: of short term trades in and then the momentum fizzles out. 493 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 6: It's really been jerked around by hedge fund trading and 494 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 6: passive investments in the last year and a half. And 495 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 6: we've seen you know, hedge funds in particular dialing up 496 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,679 Speaker 6: their optimism on the small caps when fed duvishness was 497 00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 6: picking up, and when fed hawkishness was coming back there 498 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 6: dial down. And then we got to the election and 499 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,440 Speaker 6: they started getting dialed up on election optimism. 500 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,160 Speaker 7: I think the problem you've got for small caps right. 501 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 6: Now is that you do you have had some valuation problems, 502 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,440 Speaker 6: You've had some frothiness. If you look at the positioning 503 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 6: data from CFTC. We are starting to see the valuation 504 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,200 Speaker 6: data unwind We've gotten down to average on the long 505 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 6: term pe for ther for the Russell two thousand. That 506 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,080 Speaker 6: often can mark the bottom, but if you have a 507 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 6: real economic problem on your hand, you'll go to eleven, 508 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 6: thirteen times or fifteen times. 509 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,200 Speaker 7: Right now, we had been up almost molost to nineteen. 510 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 6: If you look at positioning, we've got a lot more 511 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:35,720 Speaker 6: room to fall. And in the meantime, we've got a 512 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 6: lot of economic headwinds that are coming at this space, 513 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 6: and you need economic tailwinds to come back, or at 514 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 6: least a recession priced in to really want to buy 515 00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 6: this space. So I think it's, you know, interesting stuff 516 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 6: happening here, but it still feels a little early to me. 517 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 2: And the magic of Bloomberg surveillance. So Laurie's talk and 518 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,480 Speaker 2: I'm going to page one oh six of her stack 519 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 2: and I'm doing Russell two thousand log linear standard deviation 520 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 2: for the depths of two thousand and nine, and she 521 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 2: beautifully describes we're only down one standard deviation on the 522 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 2: long term log chart. We got a ways to go 523 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 2: to get down to the anks of two standards audiation. 524 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 2: Let's see. 525 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 4: So, Laurie, what do we do here? What's the I mean, 526 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 4: we're pretty much through the earnings. We're going to get 527 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,560 Speaker 4: some some retailers this week. But what did you learn 528 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 4: from this earnings cycle here? And maybe some of the guidance. 529 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 7: So I'll tell you the sector. 530 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 6: And maybe it's on my mind because RBC has a 531 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 6: conference coming up on this tomorrow, but I still like 532 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 6: the financial sector in here, so I'm going to be, 533 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 6: you know, really interested to hear what those companies have. 534 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 7: To say the next couple of days. But look, as 535 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 7: we did. 536 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,400 Speaker 6: Go through reporting season, one thing that became very clear 537 00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 6: to me was that financials, you know, they've got some 538 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,960 Speaker 6: tailwinds in terms of the policy backdrop from deregulation, and 539 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 6: so the companies have absolutely been talking about that, but 540 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 6: they're not really exposed, at least directly to a lot 541 00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 6: of the headwinds that might potentially be coming. So, you know, 542 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,960 Speaker 6: tariff impacts, you know, it impacts the economy, right, so 543 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 6: we'll we'll end up here as well, but they're not. 544 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 7: On the front lines of this debate. 545 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,880 Speaker 6: We've still got some good valuations, especially in the smaller 546 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 6: calf financial sector, especially with the banks I would say 547 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 6: the investment banks where the M and A optimism is overdone, 548 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 6: those look pricey. We're not really buying those, but we 549 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 6: do think kind of the plain vanilla, you know, sort 550 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 6: of regional banks and smid banks looked pretty good in here. 551 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 6: And they also don't have dollar pressure, they don't get 552 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 6: caught up and where the currency is headed right, So 553 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 6: we still like that space. 554 00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 7: And of course Gerard is still very bullish. 555 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:37,000 Speaker 2: There, Laurie, very quickly here we are great observation out 556 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Thank you for the live chat. Brilliance, Laurie. 557 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 2: The Russell two thousand has a lot of stocks that 558 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 2: don't make money. How do we address that, the lack 559 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:50,280 Speaker 2: of profit down the income statement of so many of 560 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 2: those two thousand stocks. 561 00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 6: The simple answer, Tom, and nobody likes this answer, but 562 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,840 Speaker 6: you buy an actively managed small cap fund as opposed 563 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,560 Speaker 6: to the ETF. And when I talked to active managers 564 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,480 Speaker 6: in the small cap space, and I've been covering this 565 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,440 Speaker 6: space since two thousand and seven, I know a lot 566 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 6: of these folks very very well. They don't tend to 567 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 6: traffic in the unprofitable names. They tend to move up 568 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 6: the quality curve. They really do have sort of a 569 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:19,200 Speaker 6: nose for finding the good companies, and I think that's 570 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,920 Speaker 6: really how you combat it, right as you just have 571 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 6: to have individuals going in and picking the better companies 572 00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,760 Speaker 6: within verticals, within industries, within sectors. Because there is a 573 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,720 Speaker 6: lot of illiquidity, there are a lot of companies with 574 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 6: loss makers, and there are goofy you know, sort of 575 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,680 Speaker 6: industry exposures, lots of reads, lots of biotech, lots of 576 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:39,200 Speaker 6: unprofitable tech. An active manager can help you navigate around that. 577 00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,200 Speaker 2: Laurie, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. What do 578 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 2: you have? 579 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 4: Tom Lorid Calvacina, a resident of the Lawn at the 580 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 4: University of Virginia that is for reserve for the most 581 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,720 Speaker 4: I think you know some of the more accomplished students there. 582 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,160 Speaker 4: You have to be a senior that type of thing. 583 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 4: There's only fifty four single rooms on the lawn. Each 584 00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 4: room is furnished with a lofted bed ladder above a 585 00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 4: day bed with a cover, secretary desk with a chair, 586 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,280 Speaker 4: a hutch containing refrigerator in freezer and a microwave built 587 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 4: in closet, seen closet, and a rocking chair. 588 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 2: I gave a speech there one day and I sat 589 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,800 Speaker 2: not in the early morning, missed, but pretty close like 590 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:20,760 Speaker 2: ninety everybody's asleep. Calvaciana was passed out. But it has 591 00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 2: to be the most spectacularly gorgeous piece of collegiate real 592 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 2: estate in America. 593 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 3: Yep. 594 00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 4: My good buddy from high school, Robbe Stewart, he had 595 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 4: a room at the on the lawn there at the 596 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 4: Senior UVA. It's really really a special place. And if 597 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,160 Speaker 4: you get a room on the lawn, that means you're accomplishing. 598 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 2: Closest I got to the lawn was at the Rochester 599 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:45,360 Speaker 2: Institute of Technology where there's winter in the fourth of July. 600 00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:49,280 Speaker 2: The closest was to walk across the quarter mile when 601 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 2: it was twenty two below zero. That was as close 602 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 2: as we got to the romance of the lawn. 603 00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 604 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,360 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 605 00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 606 00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,400 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 607 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. 608 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:18,040 Speaker 2: You're a Skur report the Daily front Pages. Okay, Lisa 609 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 2: Ariana shows up and a Chiaparelli was I mean, so 610 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 2: she'd go right to the costume institute at the met 611 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,479 Speaker 2: It just deserves to be in the basement. It was 612 00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:33,320 Speaker 2: like completely not modern, is how I know. 613 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 8: I love she looked like a little princess, like on 614 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 8: the red carpet, Like it's like when you open that 615 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 8: jewelry box and the little ballerina process. 616 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 2: To shut Chiaparelli. It wasn't poofy, it wasn't cheap. 617 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 4: It was just it was beautiful. 618 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 8: I loved it, loved it, lovedly. 619 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 2: I throw that you wore it today to work? 620 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,760 Speaker 8: What do you got? All Right, I'm gonna kind of 621 00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 8: pull an audible here. I was going to do the 622 00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 8: story about the montage and the people that were kind 623 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,600 Speaker 8: of left out are the ones who the actors who 624 00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:08,240 Speaker 8: died because you had a Michelle Trachtenberg, Shannon Dougherty, Yes, yes, 625 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,319 Speaker 8: surveillance audible. I'm going to go to this Lucas Shaw 626 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 8: piece because I just find it so interesting about you know, 627 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,440 Speaker 8: Disney being the host of it for like fifty years 628 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,759 Speaker 8: for the for the Oscars, but now you see that 629 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,320 Speaker 8: it's starting to change. Because he has this article in 630 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,759 Speaker 8: screen time. You have to check it out about possibly 631 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,800 Speaker 8: them talking with Netflix maybe of being the next partner, 632 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 8: because last year, you know, they were reopening that deal 633 00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 8: was worth more than one hundred million dollars a year. 634 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,840 Speaker 8: But that negotiating between the two sides, it's it's it's 635 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,920 Speaker 8: it's open. So now they have these talks going on. 636 00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:44,280 Speaker 8: So I thought this was really interesting about how Netflix 637 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,520 Speaker 8: could be it because then you think about streaming and 638 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,200 Speaker 8: how streaming is going to a lot of more live events. 639 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 8: So if this is going to be like another way 640 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:51,799 Speaker 8: for them, if that's what. 641 00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,120 Speaker 4: They need, that's where the world's going. So I mean, 642 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:55,399 Speaker 4: you know, you've got to see some of these big 643 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,160 Speaker 4: ticket items and again the next big one of the 644 00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:01,600 Speaker 4: next big things in addition to these whole broadcast like 645 00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:03,920 Speaker 4: the Oscars, is you know, live sports at the NFL 646 00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:04,799 Speaker 4: and things things like that. 647 00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,560 Speaker 2: But the thing I noticed last night, missus Kean wrote 648 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:11,240 Speaker 2: this up addicted to all this idiocy, like Lisa is 649 00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:15,440 Speaker 2: is is Paul? Streaming is completely taking short. I mean 650 00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,719 Speaker 2: this year they didn't have Oppenheimer and Barbie period. 651 00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:19,239 Speaker 8: Right right. 652 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 4: I mean you just look where the where the programming 653 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,400 Speaker 4: budgets are going from some of the big companies like 654 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:26,240 Speaker 4: A Walt Disney Company. They're all going to their streaming services. 655 00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 4: What do you see on your network television? You see 656 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 4: a lot of you know, just not a lot of 657 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,919 Speaker 4: scripted drama. They're just not allocating the budgets. So they're 658 00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 4: putting all their money in streaming. 659 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,320 Speaker 2: Is streaming a movie? Yeah? 660 00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,279 Speaker 4: Sure, absolutely, we can do that. Okay, so why not? 661 00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:41,480 Speaker 4: That's where everybody's going, what. 662 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:41,920 Speaker 5: Do you Yeah? 663 00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 8: And it was also talking about how like the box 664 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,160 Speaker 8: office numbers for all the Best Picture nominees was like 665 00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,560 Speaker 8: forty percent lower and last year Yeah, I don't know. 666 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:52,719 Speaker 2: Forty one million worldwide. 667 00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,640 Speaker 8: Yes, I haven't even heard of it. So that's that's 668 00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,560 Speaker 8: going to be on my list. Okay, let's move on 669 00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:59,640 Speaker 8: the gift bags. Okay, that's what I want to talk about, 670 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 8: because the nominees, yes, so didn't take home the oscars. 671 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,000 Speaker 8: They did not go home empty handed. They were carrying 672 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,560 Speaker 8: along a two hundred and sixteen thousand dollars bag. 673 00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:08,160 Speaker 4: Are you. 674 00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,719 Speaker 8: There were gift bags from distinctive assets, mostly experiences that 675 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 8: kind of make up the value. So you have like 676 00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,600 Speaker 8: light bo Suction from art Light both twenty five thousand dollars. Okay, 677 00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,760 Speaker 8: five nights at a Sri Lankan Wellness Retreat for about 678 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:26,480 Speaker 8: eighty five hundred dollars, four nights at Jolly Metaldives and 679 00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,840 Speaker 8: Jolly Being for twenty three thousand. 680 00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 4: Right, is that what it is? 681 00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,439 Speaker 8: Did I pronounce these. 682 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 4: Fancy in historia? 683 00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,760 Speaker 2: Quickly? Give me give me one more merch. 684 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,440 Speaker 8: Okay, one more merch item Oh did you know a 685 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,799 Speaker 8: three month top tier ancestry DNA membership is twenty five 686 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:49,920 Speaker 8: thousand dollars? 687 00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:50,240 Speaker 2: Really? 688 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,319 Speaker 8: Yes, that one's in there too. 689 00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,319 Speaker 4: Just tell me all my ancestors came from Ireland. 690 00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:59,920 Speaker 8: Of all the beauty products and all that most sober, exactly. 691 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,080 Speaker 2: Thank so, Thank you so much, Lisa Matteo their words, 692 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:07,080 Speaker 2: Chaparrelli this morning with your oscar a summer. We'll do 693 00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,800 Speaker 2: some more newspapers tomorrow. Hugely popular. 694 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:15,239 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 695 00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:19,160 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 696 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:23,040 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 697 00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,959 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 698 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,400 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 699 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal