1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apocarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 2: The S and P is still up one percent, but 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 2: if you take a look at an inter date chart, 8 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: it is a nice straight line down after we got 9 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 2: that ism services number, Paul, when you have prices paid 10 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 2: higher in next slipping below fifty and that employment number 11 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 2: coming in at forty five point nine for the service sector, 12 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 2: which does echo what we saw in terms of hospitality 13 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 2: jobs and sort of the meager edition that we saw 14 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 2: in today's jobs report. 15 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so. I mean, I think the labor market, 16 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 3: we had a lot of guests on Bloomberg survants, a 17 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 3: lot of economists, and I think the consensus kind of 18 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 3: is still a solid labor market, but just cooling. And 19 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: that's probably all. Maybe the Federal Reserve might need to 20 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 3: pull maybe rate cut. 21 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 4: We'll be a little bit forward in a year. 22 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 2: And if we dot together all the things we learned 23 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: from say bookings and Expedia, et cetera. The kind of 24 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 2: service economy is starting to slow. So let's get more 25 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 2: with that. Anthony Javis, he joins us. He is the 26 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 2: ISM chair Services head. He is the chair of the 27 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 2: ISM Services Business Committee. Let me get that title right, 28 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 2: So talk to me about how you understand these numbers. So, 29 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 2: services and next slipping below forty nine point four, how 30 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 2: would you describe that? 31 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 5: Well, what we're seeing here is a pullback in the 32 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 5: leading indexes that comprise this composite index Business activity fifty 33 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 5: point nine. That's down six point five percentage points. Still growing, 34 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 5: but as you said, it's cooling, it's definitely pulled back. 35 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 5: Some new orders still growing fifty two point two, but 36 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 5: down two point two percentage points. And the employment market 37 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 5: continues to be just as this index indicates forty five 38 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 5: point nine, down two point six percentage points, attributed to 39 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 5: a combination of things that we've seen in the past ongoing. 40 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 5: Either they can't find applicable workers for open positions, or 41 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 5: they're controlling that labor expense. And the last one, supplier 42 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 5: deliveries continues to be faster due to waning demand as 43 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 5: well as improved capacity. 44 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 3: So Anthony, can you kind of give us some context here, 45 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 3: because context matters, and give us a little sense here 46 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 3: of the trend here in some of this services data. 47 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 6: That's a great point. 48 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 5: This is one month we've contracted here first time since 49 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 5: December of twenty twenty two. Well, we thought it might 50 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 5: take a little bit longer to balance back. It came 51 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 5: right back the following month. Not trying to be the 52 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 5: consummate optimist here, but again one trend, we're just under 53 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 5: the baseline. Based on responded comments, they indicate that they 54 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 5: see the next part of the year that it will 55 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 5: be some improvements there. So we'll just have to wait 56 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 5: and see how it trends out over next couple of months. 57 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: Where are the worry spots within all the respondents? Where 58 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 2: are the weak links? 59 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 5: Well, it's inflation is a big one. You know, Pricing 60 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 5: is definitely impacting their various industries and their companies that 61 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 5: make up this sector, as well as the challenges and employment. 62 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,119 Speaker 5: You know, construction still seems to be an area where 63 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 5: they can't backfill positions, and you know, geopolitical issues as 64 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 5: well also is on the forefront of our respondent's minds 65 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 5: right now. 66 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 7: All right, great stuff, Anthony, Thank you so much. 67 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 2: Anthony Avis. I love that you hop on with those. 68 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 2: We know you have a busy day. He's the chair 69 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 2: of the Ism Services Index. 70 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 71 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 72 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 73 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 74 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 75 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 3: You know there's a luck going on out there in 76 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 3: the marketplace. Here and again, it's economic data, it's earnings data. 77 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 3: Henrietta Trez joins his managing partner and director of Economic 78 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 3: Policy for Veda Partners. I believe from Zoom, I mean 79 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 3: from Louisiana via Zoom. Hey, Henrietta, what do you make 80 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 3: of this job's report? I mean, to what extent is 81 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 3: this labor market cooling? In your mind? 82 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 8: Well, first of all, I have to just say, the 83 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 8: Stones played last night the jazz Fest down in New Orleans. 84 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 9: So y'all just all that down. 85 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 8: Oh fantastic, It'll be going all weekend, so can't wait. 86 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 8: But no, the jobs number continues to be really I 87 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 8: think just a goldilocks moment the market participants are focused 88 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 8: on FED interest rate cuts, and this reignited opportunities and 89 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 8: sort of optimism for a FED rate cut in September, 90 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 8: which is a market difference from just earlier this week, 91 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 8: and expectations for the last couple of weeks. I've been 92 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 8: pushing it out till November or even next year, or 93 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 8: even say that there could be a FED hike. So 94 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 8: I think this job's number, while slightly lower than it 95 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 8: has been in the last couple of months, I. 96 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 9: Mean, continues this ridiculous trend. 97 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 8: Of some four percent unemployment, which is full employment in 98 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 8: the United States and really just paints the picture of 99 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 8: a very robust, strong economy that is the longest running 100 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 8: since the nineteen sixties. 101 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 9: So I think it's sort of a perfect number, to 102 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 9: be honest. 103 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 7: How fast, though, can the job market cool? 104 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 2: Someone pointed out on m Live, which is the great 105 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 2: sort of blog that we do here at Bloomberg, that 106 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 2: health and private education excluding public school teachers, accounted for 107 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 2: over half of the entire gain and payroll, so if 108 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 2: you back that out, it was actually a lot weaker. 109 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 2: And so I'm wondering how fast we can cool here. 110 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 8: I mean, I think that the ridiculous strength in job 111 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 8: growth for the last couple of months. It's just been 112 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 8: blowing out expectations. It's almost like where were those jobs 113 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 8: even coming from. It's hard to sort of wrap your 114 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,719 Speaker 8: head around those numbers so consistently for what is it, 115 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 8: twenty four. 116 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 9: Months or something. 117 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 8: I think that this job's number reflects more of a reality. 118 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 8: I saw the same post, you know, some similar comments 119 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 8: about the weather over the winter period, maybe just bringing 120 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 8: this back down to earth, and I think it reflects, 121 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 8: you know, a very strong economy that really doesn't have 122 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 8: much room to continue growing jobs the way that it 123 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 8: has been. 124 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,239 Speaker 3: All Right, So I guess when we combine this jobs 125 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 3: print today, Henriette, with what we heard from FED Chairman 126 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 3: J Powell earlier in the week, does this kind of 127 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 3: alter the way you think about how the FED may 128 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 3: proceed for the remainder of the year in terms of 129 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:28,239 Speaker 3: perhaps cutting rates. 130 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 8: You know, I don't subscribe to the theory that the 131 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 8: FED is politically motivated. 132 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 6: I know a lot of. 133 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 8: Investors are in that headspace, but you know, I've worked 134 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 8: with Federal Reserve folks for many years, going back to 135 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 8: when I was in the Senate and here and work 136 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 8: with many of the former FED chairs, former FED employees now, 137 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 8: and I think the understanding that they are not a 138 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 8: political animal is something that Jay Powell tries to relay 139 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 8: over and over and over again, as you did on Wednesday. 140 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,720 Speaker 9: But you know, investors don't necessarily all want to hear that. 141 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 8: I think that if the FED feels it to contain 142 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 8: inflation and keep its dual mandate going, they will cut 143 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 8: as needed. I mean, one of the things that I'd 144 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 8: point out is that we have elections in the United 145 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 8: States all the time. Granted they're only every four years 146 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 8: of presidential election cycle, but we've got generals, We've got 147 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 8: different elections across individual states, constitutional referendums. 148 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 9: I mean, this happens all the time. 149 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 8: So to assume that the FED is somehow not going 150 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 8: to cut from you know, July to November because the election, 151 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 8: that's a big swath of time that they're just going 152 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 8: to let the economy run. 153 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 9: Unregulated, you know, that's not really how they operate. 154 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 8: And so I would just encourage folks to say, if 155 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 8: they do need to cut, they will, and I think 156 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 8: they'll do that x any political considerations. One more thing 157 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 8: I'd add is that there's this view that if they 158 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 8: don't cut in March or April or even June, then 159 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 8: they can't come in and cut in September. I've read 160 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 8: that repeatedly from investors and the idea of being it'll 161 00:07:56,280 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 8: look to partisan, too politically oriented, and I disagree with that. 162 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 8: But it's interesting to see the market move since Wednesday 163 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 8: and today's jobs report. Now there all of a sudden 164 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 8: pricing in cuts again in September, so it seems to 165 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 8: vacillate quite a bit. And I just point that out. 166 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 8: So it's an interesting dynamic from investor perspective. 167 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean even before this is already happening, they 168 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 2: had that article last Friday right about potentially the Trump 169 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 2: campaign talking about eroding that independence regardless, So there's that. 170 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 7: Before I let you go. 171 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 2: The way labor market slows, When could we be in 172 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 2: a higher unemployment environment in this election cycle. 173 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 9: I mean, I think to your earlier point, it could 174 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 9: happen pretty quickly. 175 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 8: You know, it's only a three point nine now, it 176 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 8: wouldn't take much to take up to four four point one. 177 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 8: And I think the revisions are something to watch certainly 178 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,559 Speaker 8: as well. And as we get into the summer months, 179 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,199 Speaker 8: you talked about school teachers. I think that there's opportunity 180 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 8: for change and they can imagine us being higher than 181 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 8: four percent come election day without question. 182 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 3: All right, Henriette, thank you so much for joining us. 183 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 3: Henrietta trees A Managing partner and director of Economic polse 184 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 3: at Veda Partners. 185 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 186 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Afocarplay and Android Auto 187 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 188 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 189 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 2: I'm Alex Steele alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio, 190 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 2: where we bring you all the economic and financial news 191 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 2: that you need to know. 192 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 7: With our great. 193 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, they cover two thousand companies and one 194 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty industries. We also venture outside of that 195 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:39,199 Speaker 2: and talk to some really great investors who have their 196 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 2: pulse on the market. I can really understand how to 197 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 2: position your portfolio for the next couple decades. 198 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 10: Really. 199 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 2: Carol Pepper is one of them, founder and CEO of 200 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 2: Pepper International. She joins us now from New York City. Carol, 201 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:54,239 Speaker 2: the market seems to be taking the report is goldilocks. 202 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 2: Im services number might have put a little bit of 203 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 2: dent in that, but either way, does this give you 204 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 2: confidence to the market. 205 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 11: Yes, I mean I think we are in a very 206 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 11: nice sweet spot. I'm not necessarily want to buy the market. 207 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 11: We look at sectors and see where the growth is 208 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 11: going to be. So, as you know, I'm a big 209 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 11: tech bull for the long term. I think you buy 210 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 11: tech on fear days and the United States really leads 211 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 11: in technology and innovation and artificial intelligence, and those sectors 212 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 11: of the magnificent six if you will, out of seven 213 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 11: are really powering the market forward and we'll continue to 214 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 11: do so. I think it looks likely that you know, 215 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 11: the FED will ease at some point this year, and 216 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 11: that's very good for growth stocks. So I'm in a 217 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 11: happy place with the report. 218 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 3: What did you make of that Apple print we saw 219 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 3: last night after the clothes What are your takeaways? 220 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 11: Well, I just think again it's you know, everybody wants 221 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 11: to keep counting tech out because they missed the rally. 222 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 11: And what I tell everybody is you can't time when 223 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 11: all the good news will come in. So things are 224 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 11: looking up for Apple. You just have to get in 225 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 11: there hold your knows. If you're a value investor and 226 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 11: you think everything's overpriced, because it's not. If you have 227 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 11: a long term time horizon, as you know, I manage 228 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 11: money for family offices, generally people with over one hundred 229 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 11: million dollars, and we make long term bets. And the 230 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 11: long term bet to make right now are the Magnificent six. 231 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 11: I leave out Tesla because I think they have a 232 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 11: lot of problems, but if you look at all the 233 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 11: other stocks these are this is a good basket. Or 234 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 11: if you can't buy all the stocks individually, you can 235 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 11: look at QQQ, get a broad based of American technology 236 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 11: exposure and global technology exposure, and set it and forget it, 237 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 11: you know, and you will see continuing upside surprises. Sometimes 238 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 11: we'll miss the quarter. Look at what Microsoft just did. 239 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 11: They're reinvesting to buy more AI. So the earnings might 240 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 11: be down for a quarter, but that is only going 241 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 11: to translate into double the earnings two quarters later. So 242 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 11: you can't just go, you know, month to month and 243 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 11: say it uperates down. You have to make some long 244 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 11: term bets if you want to make money over the 245 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 11: long term. 246 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 2: So if I'm hearing you right, you're saying buy on 247 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:03,679 Speaker 2: fear Big ten because it's a good value value plus tech. 248 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 11: Yes, it is the real value. The real value today 249 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 11: is not the value stocks. The real value today or 250 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,680 Speaker 11: the big tech stocks because they have the balance sheet, 251 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:16,959 Speaker 11: they have the cash, and they're leading the entire country. 252 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 11: Because their technologies will impact every single other industry in 253 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,559 Speaker 11: this country. AI is going to touch everything. So if 254 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 11: you really want to make long term money, if you 255 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 11: want to fund your retirement or your kids education, put 256 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 11: money in tech and leave it there. Don't try to 257 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 11: trade it daily. It's very hard to guess which quarter 258 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 11: the yearnings are going to pop up when people are 259 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 11: going to be more or less fearful. But when they 260 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 11: are fearful like there were a few days ago, that's 261 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 11: when you jump in and buy. 262 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 3: So, Carol, what do you think about healthcare here? And 263 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 3: recently I asked us, I'm looking at Amgen here. Here's 264 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 3: a company with the one hundred and sixty billion dollar 265 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 3: market cap company up twelve percent, and it seems like 266 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:56,680 Speaker 3: in the healthcare space, if you could talk about a 267 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 3: GLP into your portfolio, it's kind of like saying you 268 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 3: got a eye exposure in technology kind of works. 269 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 4: How do you think about. 270 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 11: Healthcare, Well, I really think that healthcare right now is 271 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 11: being driven by the whole weight loss craze, because that 272 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 11: is a huge trend that's going to keep going up, 273 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 11: and I do predict that eventually it might take another year. 274 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 11: We're either going to get pills or we're going to 275 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 11: get the price of the shots coming way down, and 276 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 11: that will just bring a flood of new patients into 277 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 11: the market. So that is a trend that you definitely 278 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 11: want to jump on. I think for the next four 279 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 11: or five years. At some point the governments will put 280 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 11: their foot down and start to mandate lower prices for 281 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 11: these drugs. But for now, it's definitely a trend that 282 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 11: will make money for you over the medium term for sure, 283 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 11: because what most of America is overweight and this is 284 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,319 Speaker 11: a way to help them get their weight under control. 285 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, Paul, sitting at this current moment, Carol, before let go, 286 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 2: what else do you like right now? 287 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 7: What else do you want to buy on fear? 288 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 11: Well, I think the main thing is just you know, 289 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 11: those are my favorite picks. I also think you should 290 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 11: buy estate, frankly, because real estate is going to come 291 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 11: back again. You have to be a little bit patient, 292 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 11: but if you're willing to sit through the summer, you 293 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 11: can get some beaten up real estate and development stocks 294 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 11: and home building stocks. Real estate will come roaring back 295 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 11: the second that the rates come down. The rates aren't 296 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,199 Speaker 11: going to come down. Do we know if it's two 297 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 11: months or six months. We don't know, but we do 298 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 11: know we're going to get there. So those of you 299 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 11: who loved a bargain, look into the real estate sector 300 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 11: right now. Look at home builders and people like that. 301 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 11: That's really a place where you're going to be able 302 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 11: to get in there early and patch yourself in the 303 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 11: back when the rest of the world catches on your 304 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 11: trend that you got in early. 305 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 3: All right, Carol, thank you so much for joining us. 306 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 3: Kyle Pepper, she's a founder and CEO of Pepper International, 307 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 3: joining us from New York City via zoom Here. 308 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 309 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 310 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business Act. You can also listen 311 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 312 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven. 313 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 3: Let's get back to that labor data, because that is 314 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 3: certainly the big play here for the markets here. We 315 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 3: want to always like to chat with Tom Gimble. Tom 316 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 3: is the founder and CEO LASAL Networks. Tom, talk to 317 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 3: us about this number here, A little bit a slowdown 318 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 3: in hiring, but still a pretty healthy number. What's your perspective. 319 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 4: I tell you, I'm not sure that it's not actually 320 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 4: a better number than people think. If you look at 321 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 4: how small the government hiring was, all right, break it 322 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 4: down for you. So we've been averaging. Government's been averaging 323 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 4: about fifty five thousand jobs a month. This month it 324 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 4: was eight thousand. So when you look at the percentage 325 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 4: of non government jobs added, this was one of the 326 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 4: better months. 327 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 7: Interesting because it I heard that. 328 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 2: So then why is the Why is the rhetoric like, ooh, 329 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 2: if you back that out, the overall number wasn't that great? 330 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 4: Oh, because economists are depressing people. I think that. I 331 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 4: think that that in reality, you know, the as we 332 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 4: talk about every week, adding jobs is better than losing jobs. 333 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 4: So the economy is good. I think where we have 334 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 4: a problem that everybody knows about is inflation. And for 335 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 4: some reason we've got cost of things going up, stock 336 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 4: market going up, but it's being driven by by a 337 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 4: few of you know, the Magnificent seven and all that 338 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 4: good stuff. And then we're sitting here looking at at 339 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 4: at people working, and the labor market is healthy. Now 340 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 4: what we're seeing is a lot of the jobs are 341 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 4: in healthcare, and they're in hospitality, and they're in construction, 342 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 4: and so those are a lot of hourly jobs. They're 343 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 4: not the highest earning jobs. And we're seeing a little 344 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:52,479 Speaker 4: bit of white collar stalling in the hiring side. 345 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 3: So, Tom, it's early May. It means kids are gonna 346 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 3: start graduating from college. 347 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 4: What's that job market look like. It's there. It's there, 348 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 4: It's just not as healthy as it was. And what 349 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,439 Speaker 4: I mean by that is it's the jobs aren't going 350 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 4: to be if you want, you know, a lot of kids, 351 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 4: oh I want to work remote, I want to work 352 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 4: from here, that you're gonna have to go into an office. 353 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 4: I think for a lot of the jobs. Number one, 354 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,360 Speaker 4: Number two, the salaries aren't going to be as high 355 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 4: starting salaries as they have been historically for recent college graduates. 356 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,400 Speaker 4: And number three, you're not going to see as high 357 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 4: a volume of hiring at companies, so you might not 358 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 4: get the company that you want or the job you 359 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 4: think you want, but there are jobs available. 360 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 2: Do you what sectors do you still feel like are 361 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 2: pretty strong? I anecdotally was speaking to a friend of 362 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 2: mine who's pretty high up in the tech sector on 363 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 2: the data side, and she is just like, I can't. 364 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 2: It's really hard to get a job, and there's been 365 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 2: so many rounds of layoffs over the last year and 366 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,959 Speaker 2: a half or so that there's a plethora of people 367 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 2: trying to get in on the same jobs. At this point, 368 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 2: where are the jobs where they're not talk us through 369 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:04,199 Speaker 2: all the dynamics. 370 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,719 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think the real challenge is where were 371 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 4: I think things are going to move over the course 372 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 4: of the next couple of years. Is less industry and 373 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 4: more skill set. Meaning technology might not be hiring, meaning 374 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 4: big tech companies, but people who do sales may be 375 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 4: getting hiring, and people who do development or product maybe 376 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,120 Speaker 4: getting hired, but they're not hiring in marketing or HR. 377 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 4: So I think it's more of what your skill set 378 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 4: is versus the overall industries. Right, so, healthcare may be stalling. 379 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 4: We don't there the nurse shortages at what it was 380 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 4: three years ago. However, they're hiring a ton of doctors 381 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 4: and they're hiring a ton of of medical records people. 382 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 4: As they move to AI, they still need to get 383 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:54,119 Speaker 4: the work done. So it's really in the roles versus 384 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 4: the industries. But if I could wave a wand and 385 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 4: give myself a skill set, it would be in security. 386 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 4: In technology security. You guys see the hacks that Microsoft 387 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 4: had a couple months ago, and there's a new one 388 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 4: every week or every month coming out. And if somebody 389 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 4: is really talented in the cyber security space, that ain't 390 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 4: going anywhere. 391 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 3: Hey, Tom, I wonder from your perspective how the influx 392 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 3: of immigrants, legal and illegal into this country and a 393 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 3: surge it's been, how does that impact A lot of 394 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 3: folks are saying that's been a net positive for the 395 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 3: labor market in the economy. What do you see from 396 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 3: your perspective. 397 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 4: I don't necessarily see that yet, So I think on 398 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 4: the legal side, the problem with the layman, as you 399 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 4: guys know, is people think that coming in is purely 400 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 4: south of the border for immigration, and legal immigration is 401 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 4: people who want to get married or they're just going 402 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 4: to move here. We educate. There's different laws for non 403 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 4: citizens to come into the country to be educated at 404 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 4: a lot of our best schools and then you have 405 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 4: to leave at after that. And so the legal immigration 406 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 4: of educating people and then not allowing them to work here, 407 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 4: especially in technology fields and engineering the stems. Right, we 408 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 4: have this population, we educate and then we send away. 409 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:19,640 Speaker 4: It's almost a non with this country was built on methodology. 410 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 4: And then number two on the illegal side. I think 411 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 4: the negative on the workforce isn't that we don't need 412 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 4: people at an entry level and blue collar skill set. 413 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 4: It's a matter of how it's affecting society and what 414 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 4: businesses want to do and people being scared and where 415 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,639 Speaker 4: things are at, and it overloading the system on some 416 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 4: social issues and that has ripple effect into corporate America. 417 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,359 Speaker 4: That's my concern. And then the last thing, you know, 418 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 4: you know it's the third rail, right, But I think 419 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 4: I was doing an interview the other day about how, 420 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 4: you know, we're seeing an influx from our clients at 421 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 4: state schools doing finance and consulting recruiting because they don't 422 00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,719 Speaker 4: want to just touch the ivs with a ten foot poll. 423 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,360 Speaker 7: Well, that's really interesting. What what what's the why there? 424 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 4: No, I think there's you have so you have a 425 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:12,160 Speaker 4: smaller student population base at the IVY leagues. So companies 426 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 4: don't want to spend their time trying to to look 427 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,719 Speaker 4: at social media and figure out who's in the protesting, 428 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 4: who's not, who might have been abusive to other students, 429 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 4: who wasn't right. It's easier to say, you know what, 430 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 4: we're not going to discriminate against people within the ivys. 431 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,160 Speaker 4: We're just not going to recruit from the ivys. 432 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 7: That's real, Tom. 433 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,679 Speaker 3: So what's kind of your view here as it relates 434 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 3: going forward in terms of how do you think this 435 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 3: labor economy is going to evolve for the remainder of 436 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 3: this year. 437 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 4: I think it's going to continue to be be fine. 438 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 4: I think what we have is, you know this intersection, 439 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 4: this then diagram if you will, of where it meets 440 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 4: of the overall stock market, a change in Washington d 441 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 4: C with the election, potential change with the Washington d 442 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 4: C with the election coming up, and then and then 443 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 4: just where we're at with inflation and things like that, 444 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 4: and and interest rates and so we got today is 445 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 4: to me, it doesn't seem like the Fed's going to 446 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 4: lower rates. And if that happens, I think the status 447 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,159 Speaker 4: quo continues. And I think it's going to be just 448 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 4: this emotionally purgatory world we're going to live in for 449 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 4: the for the next six or eight months. 450 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 7: Okay, but let's let's game that out. So that's the 451 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 7: FED not cutting rates. 452 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 2: If the FED does cut rates, or do the companies 453 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 2: and industries you talk to, how would that influence their hiring? 454 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 11: Oh? 455 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 4: Most it really depends, right, twenty five basis points, you know, 456 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 4: not that much. What it what it does is what 457 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 4: it'll do is if it has the desired effect that 458 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 4: a lot of people in corporate America think, which is 459 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:52,120 Speaker 4: send the economy back into a hyper drive state, then 460 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 4: they continue to The theory would be they'd continue to 461 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,360 Speaker 4: lower interest rates, and then when money got cheap enough, 462 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,080 Speaker 4: you could hire people in the in the classes of 463 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,120 Speaker 4: twenty fifty one hundred. But I don't think twenty five 464 00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 4: basis points in the next or two sessions from now 465 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 4: is going to all of a sudden turn three hundred 466 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 4: or four hundred thousand jobs a month. I don't see that. Hey, Tom, 467 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 4: is there. 468 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 3: Any regionality out there into the hiring market. I'm just guessing, 469 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 3: you know, Texas, Florida going crazy? But is there any 470 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:20,479 Speaker 3: regionality out there. 471 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 4: No, I think you're right. On the Red States. We 472 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 4: continue to see Nashville, we continue to see at Birmingham 473 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 4: and Alabama and cities like that, and the Triangle in 474 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 4: North Carolina just being a hot sector. But now I 475 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 4: think other than that, it's I do think you're starting 476 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,440 Speaker 4: to see a little bit of it move in from 477 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 4: the coasts, and I just think that's more of social 478 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 4: issues than anything else. So it's where companies will go. 479 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 4: I mean, look at I read an article. Don't quote 480 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,480 Speaker 4: me on it, but that Goldman Sachs has more employees 481 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 4: in Salt Lake City than they do in New York. 482 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 4: So I think that tells you that second and third 483 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 4: tier cities are deaf. A place where corporate America is going. 484 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:03,160 Speaker 9: And we're going to Nashville. 485 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 4: We are going there. 486 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm super excited. I booked my hotel and I 487 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 7: booked the airfare. Okay, so this is big for me. 488 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 4: Water slide to die for water? Yeah, Oh it's a 489 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 4: water park. 490 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 9: Oh no, we go we go to this. 491 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 7: Okay, there we go. Bloomberg Intelligence on the road from 492 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 7: a water park. 493 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 2: Tom Gimble, founder and CEO over at lasal Network, thank 494 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 2: you so much. We really appreciate all of that for you, 495 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 2: But that's so interesting. It's like, you know, when you 496 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 2: stay on the West coast or the East coast, you 497 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 2: forget that there's a lot of building happening, particularly in 498 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 2: Red states, particularly from some of the infrastructure bills that 499 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 2: we've seen. Any respective of that, there's still a lot 500 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 2: of build out as well, so that's actually quite interesting. 501 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 502 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,720 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Royd 503 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 504 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 505 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty. 506 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,679 Speaker 2: We bring you all the news and economics and finance, 507 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 2: and we bring it to you through our lens of 508 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. They cover two thousand companies and one 509 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,879 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty industries worldwide. They've been doing it for 510 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 2: decades and they are really good at what they do. 511 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 2: So on that point, we want to go to anurrog Rana, 512 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analyst to give us the breakdown 513 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 2: for Apple earning. So we're looking at the best rally 514 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 2: in almost eighteen months from Apple stock is up by 515 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,159 Speaker 2: six percent. I should point out that the S ANDP 516 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 2: is really starting to roll over. We're now up only 517 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:32,919 Speaker 2: eight tens of one percent, so we'll see how long 518 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 2: the rally and Apple lasts. But an a wrong, What 519 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 2: was the biggest standout that justifies the rally for you? 520 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 3: Yeah? 521 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 10: When the results came out, you know, I remembered the 522 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 10: code from late Charlie Manger that the secret of happiness 523 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 10: and successful marriages low expectations. So I think this is 524 00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 10: exactly what happened with Apple that you know, people going 525 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,640 Speaker 10: in were like so pessimistic that any bit of good 526 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 10: news was just hailed with you know, the stock react 527 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 10: that you're seeing right now. 528 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 3: So An Rag, I guess before the print you're talking 529 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 3: about what you really want to hear regarding China and 530 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 3: their business in China was stabilization? 531 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 4: Stabilization? Did you hear that? 532 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:15,920 Speaker 10: In fact, he said they were doing very good in China, 533 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 10: which is contrary to every data that out there. In fact, 534 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 10: a couple of analysts this as asked him that, like, 535 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 10: you know, how do you reconcile with all this data 536 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 10: on shipments being down versus your comments in China. He's like, 537 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 10: I'm not responsible for them, but we are doing okay 538 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 10: in China. So it's it's a big dichotomy right now 539 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 10: in the market as to you know, who to believe, 540 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 10: whether the third party data providers are that are that 541 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,639 Speaker 10: are talking about a massive decline in iPhones versus Apple 542 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 10: that's saying, you know, China is okay. 543 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 2: Did you like them spending one hundred ten billion dollars 544 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 2: on a buyback. I'm guessing you didn't because Paul was 545 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 2: into it. 546 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 8: No. 547 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 10: Actually, to be very frank they spend over about one 548 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 10: hundred billion right now, so the one hundred and ten 549 00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,919 Speaker 10: is a minor upgrade. You know that the real new 550 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,440 Speaker 10: would have been if they said they're going to do 551 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 10: about one hundred and fifty. Frankly, so I think, I know, 552 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 10: the headline number looks really big, but they do already 553 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 10: spend currently close two hundred billion dollars buying back you know, 554 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 10: their share. So I mean, I like it, there's no 555 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,800 Speaker 10: problem about it. But but I think that's not really 556 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 10: what got the stock going. The fact that they said 557 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 10: that they're going to grow in you know, those single 558 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 10: digits after forever about you know, close to two hundred 559 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 10: basis points, you know, impact on FX. 560 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:29,640 Speaker 6: That's I think the biggest news at this point. 561 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 3: Hey, Ana Rock, I guess their developer conference coming up 562 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,640 Speaker 3: in June is going to be big for Apple from 563 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:42,159 Speaker 3: an AI perspective. What will you be looking for at 564 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:42,880 Speaker 3: that conference? 565 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 6: So, I mean, my personal preference would be if they 566 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 6: do a tie up with Google and use Google's model 567 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 6: to run. 568 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 10: Some of those stuff, because you know that there is 569 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 10: a big unknown out there as to what's going to 570 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 10: happen between their relationship with Google when it comes to 571 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 10: the default search engine and Google you know, supposedly pays 572 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 10: them twenty billion dollars for it. I think that's under 573 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,479 Speaker 10: a lot of regulatory scrutiny. If Apple were to refine 574 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 10: and do another deal with Google where they can you know, 575 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 10: mix both those things, it will really help their AI 576 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 10: costs because I don't think organically they can do something 577 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 10: this quickly. There are news by Margament that they're going 578 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 10: to either tie up with Google or Open AI. 579 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 6: You know, my preference would be if they tie up 580 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 6: with Google over there. 581 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:30,720 Speaker 3: So what is that risk for Apple from Google? 582 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 10: It is there, but to be honest, it's a it's 583 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 10: a it's a it's a one or a zero, which 584 00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 10: means there's no way to predict which way the judge 585 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,959 Speaker 10: is going to go. But I also feel that if 586 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 10: they if this does come down to that, you know, 587 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 10: some kind of illegal issue, the two parties are willing 588 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 10: to pay each other or you know, there is a 589 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 10: transaction there, so they'll find another way to make it 590 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 10: look less like that, you know, a payment for default 591 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 10: search engines, maybe per click, or there's some there could 592 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 10: be some economics there, but it is a headline issue 593 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 10: you at least in the near term for Apple. 594 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 2: I have to say anag you do not seem that 595 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 2: thrilled or that you've you know, you don't see that 596 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 2: thrilled after Apple's quarter. 597 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 6: No, no, no, no, that's that's not true. I mean 598 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 6: I'm very happy with this. 599 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 7: I'm actually skeptical. How about that? 600 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 6: No I I no, no, not at all. I'm relieved 601 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 6: of what happened from last night. 602 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 10: I just need to get to some of these one 603 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 10: or two different things that are pending, because I see, 604 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 10: at the end of the day, Apple. 605 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 6: Is one of the most phenomenal companies right now. 606 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 10: There is nobody with an ecosystem that's stronger in the 607 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 10: retail world or in the consumer world. 608 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 6: But the question is how do they get back to 609 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 6: the growth rate and can they get. 610 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 10: Rid of some of the regulatory handles Right now, their 611 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 10: fees is under a lot of pressure, both in EU 612 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:42,640 Speaker 10: and perhaps. 613 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 6: Even in the US. So there are a few things. 614 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 10: You know, it's not a clear cut story as a 615 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 10: Microsoft or an Amazon or an Nvidia at this point. 616 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,000 Speaker 6: There are certain things that need to be cleaned up. 617 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,680 Speaker 6: But yeah, no, I'm I'm always a big fan of Apple. 618 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:56,320 Speaker 4: Nothing about it. 619 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 3: All right, Very good Anna, rog rn I thank you 620 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 3: very much. We appreciate that. As always on a Rogronic 621 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 3: Technology Analyst or Bloomberg Intelligence. 622 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apples, Spotify, 623 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 1: and anywhere. 624 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 4: Else you get your podcasts. 625 00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 1: Listen live each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on 626 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the 627 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every 628 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,320 Speaker 1: weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.