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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. There's that
Speaker 2: cross currents here, and I said, get you know, surveillance
Speaker 2: cross current reporter Alex Webb so joining us from London,
Speaker 2: ere and everything in tech and particularly on Apple, Alex Web,
Speaker 2: Alex Macworld just came out. But the two paragraph thing
Speaker 2: I don't understand, which basically says if Apple and their
Speaker 2: next road show upgrades the iPad, they're going to make
Speaker 2: old iPad that we're still using not compatible with the
Speaker 2: new iPad. For where you set is there shell Game
Speaker 2: planned ups Lescence where the phone that Lisa Matteo has
Speaker 2: in six months won't work because they got a new phone.
Speaker 3: Apple gets asked about this and they often sort of
Speaker 3: they deny that it's planned obsolescence, but they just sort
Speaker 3: of say, well, it's just the nature of things sometimes,
Speaker 3: you know, technology just has to move on, and we
Speaker 3: want to create the best possible handsets that we do,
Speaker 3: and therefore, in order to have the best hardware, have
Speaker 3: to create the best software. And it's just the sort
Speaker 3: of natural consequence of that. It's also that, you know,
Speaker 3: we do know that essentially the innovations with each new
Speaker 3: generation of device are little bit more iterative each time,
Speaker 3: you know, less of a quantity leap, and so the
Speaker 3: need to kind of like drive software upgrades and like
Speaker 3: chip upgrades essentially are what is driving the actual handstet upgrades.
Speaker 3: So even if Apple says they don't, a lot of
Speaker 3: people look at it and go, this kind of it
Speaker 3: is planned obso lessence.
Speaker 4: So Alex in terms of moving on, boy, they had
Speaker 4: a big announcement here just recently, moving on from the
Speaker 4: electric car business, automated car business.
Speaker 1: Can you tell us.
Speaker 4: What their business was, what they were trying to do,
Speaker 4: and why they walked away.
Speaker 3: So it's important to qualify not an announcement. Right, Apple
Speaker 3: has never quite the acknowledged what they were doing here. Right,
Speaker 3: this is all from sources. Mark Guman's done a brilliant
Speaker 3: job over there as a chronicling this. Like they started
Speaker 3: back in twenty fourteen developing a car, and it has
Speaker 3: been a very turbulent decade where they said, actually we're
Speaker 3: not going to make a car. Where they didn't say,
Speaker 3: but internally they decided we're not going to make a car,
Speaker 3: We're just going to.
Speaker 1: Make autonomous driving systems.
Speaker 3: Then when they saw sort of Tesla go stratospheric, they won't,
Speaker 3: actually we are going to make a car. Finally, it
Speaker 3: seems that they have, you know, put paid to those
Speaker 3: ambitions at the time. And the only the closest Tim
Speaker 3: Cook came to talking about it was in twenty six
Speaker 3: seventeen inter view of Emi Chang, our own Emily Chang,
Speaker 3: and he said, we think that autonomous driving systems are
Speaker 3: the biggest AI challenge. And if you look at where
Speaker 3: things have developed in the past year or so, yeah, there.
Speaker 1: Are two things that have happened.
Speaker 3: Firstly, the electric vehicle market has become less appealing, and secondly,
Speaker 3: the AI market has become massively appealing, and so all
Speaker 3: these people AI wants they have working on the car,
Speaker 3: they have this huge problem. They don't really have a
Speaker 3: big AI consumer facing product. So if you can move
Speaker 3: those to that, then it solves two issues for you.
Speaker 4: I fortunately you mentioned that the interview with Tim Cook
Speaker 4: with our own Bloomberg Television.
Speaker 5: Let's go to that right now, take a listen.
Speaker 6: We sort of see it as the mother of all
Speaker 6: AI projects. It's probably one of the most difficult AI
Speaker 6: projects actually to work on, and so autonomy is something
Speaker 6: that's incredibly exciting for us, and but we'll see where
Speaker 6: it takes.
Speaker 4: As that was Tim Cook from Apple speaking with Bloomberg's
Speaker 4: Emily Chang talking about the car here the automated car,
Speaker 4: here the electric car.
Speaker 5: So I mean, what does it tell you, Alex?
Speaker 4: I mean I kind of feel like they're just kind
Speaker 4: of going where the wind's blowing, and now the wind's
Speaker 4: blowing towards AI, so let's put our resources. There is
Speaker 4: there any concern about that?
Speaker 3: I mean there's a push and a pull effect here, right.
Speaker 3: I think with the with the car, they were essentially
Speaker 3: initially and I think he said it in that into
Speaker 3: as well, three pillars that had been kind of disrupting
Speaker 3: the car industry. There was ride hailing, there was autonomous vehicles,
Speaker 3: and there was electric vehicles, and essentially each one of
Speaker 3: those has gradually eroded. Right hailing it transpise is not
Speaker 3: a very good business, as Uberschelle orders will probably testified.
Speaker 3: Well not share holder people got out of the stock.
Speaker 3: You know, the autonomous driving piece is taking a lot
Speaker 3: longer than had been predicted in twenty fifteen, you know,
Speaker 3: optimistically at scale by maybe twenty thirty. And finally this
Speaker 3: EV piece, which has done pretty well for Tesla, of late,
Speaker 3: we've seen sales, the pace of sales growth massively decline
Speaker 3: and a recalibration from the OEMs on how to do
Speaker 3: it like you know, actually maybe we should be doing.
Speaker 1: More hybrid than pure electric.
Speaker 3: And that's what the big carm makers are pivoting towards now.
Speaker 3: At the same time, they have missed the boat right
Speaker 3: for now on AI. It's not too late, it's it's
Speaker 3: not irreparable. They can catch up, but they are not
Speaker 3: right anywhere compared to the likes of Google. So it
Speaker 3: is a pivot that is kind of necessary.
Speaker 2: It isn't this a bad price because I see the
Speaker 2: complete destruction of a used Tesla price. Some of that
Speaker 2: I guess based on elone must desire to move cars.
Speaker 2: I think I saw yesterday Jeep, which is the cheapest
Speaker 2: traditional engines. Right, sure they're cutting the price is well,
Speaker 2: did they do the math and just say that they
Speaker 2: can't develop the aesthetic the fit in the finish of
Speaker 2: Apple alex web for one hundred thousand a car or
Speaker 2: dare I say even higher?
Speaker 3: It's always been the big question of like where would
Speaker 3: an Apple car be positioned in the market, Right, Tessa's
Speaker 3: being came in as a sort of premium vehicle and
Speaker 3: gradually working down the value channel or you know, the
Speaker 3: kind of price chain to becoming more affordable. But as
Speaker 3: you say, they are having to discount massively and have
Speaker 3: been in the past year or so in order to
Speaker 3: fill the sort of two million vehicles of capacity that
Speaker 3: they've constructed over the past few years. If you compare that,
Speaker 3: if you think about you know, super premium car makers
Speaker 3: like Ferrari, which you know is valued at seventy one
Speaker 3: billion euros, it only does six billion euros of sale
Speaker 3: each year. Sales each year that is, like you know,
Speaker 3: practically is not quite a rounding error. But I think
Speaker 3: Apple does three hundred billion, so if you're adding six
Speaker 3: billion of sales, it is not even worth writing home about.
Speaker 3: So it's the market big enough for it to be
Speaker 3: worth Apple's time exactly, big question, particularly if they see
Speaker 3: themselves as a premium brand.
Speaker 2: Paul. I think this is the heart of the matter.
Speaker 2: And Mark German is going to tell me, or Alex
Speaker 2: Web with their industry leading reporting, is going to tell me.
Speaker 2: But I get it's all this techno babble and you know,
Speaker 2: Apple car play and all that. Thank you for being
Speaker 2: an Apple car player, Paul.
Speaker 5: This is just about price, a lot of it.
Speaker 2: You're going to get it out of the Apples showroom.
Speaker 2: And the answer is the math doesn't.
Speaker 4: Work, no, I mean, and it doesn't work for Detroit.
Speaker 4: Is kind of what we're hearing in particularly when you
Speaker 4: have a price leader like Elon Musk tends to be
Speaker 4: a little bit I mean, unpredictable.
Speaker 5: So Alex you know, had.
Speaker 1: One thing on that. Sure it's at this point as well.
Speaker 3: It's like a lot of the commentary suggests Apple is
Speaker 3: going to struggle in the first year to sell meaningful
Speaker 3: numbers of the headsets, which are three and a half
Speaker 3: thousand dollars. Right, So if you're covering a vehicle that
Speaker 3: is one hundred thousand dollars, the lord of small numbers
Speaker 3: with big number.
Speaker 2: Give us, give us an update here, Alex. For what
Speaker 2: one month into this idiocy a success or failure? They headset.
Speaker 3: But I mean, the thing I'm saying, be saying from
Speaker 3: day one is it doesn't need to be a success
Speaker 3: as long as whatever Facebook does is not a success.
Speaker 1: Right, this is the.
Speaker 3: First generation they're gonna come to. They're going to make
Speaker 3: cheaper versions.
Speaker 7: You know.
Speaker 3: This is about proving out the technology, getting in the
Speaker 3: hands of developers so that then they build products for
Speaker 3: the platform. So it's too early to say Apple's push
Speaker 3: into this space as a success or a failure. The
Speaker 3: key thing is, as long as this market does not
Speaker 3: take off when someone else owns it, Apple doesn't need
Speaker 3: it to be a huge success, Alex.
Speaker 4: A lot of the Apple bulls are telling me, don't
Speaker 4: worry about AI apples. You know, they're not first to
Speaker 4: the to the game, but they come in when it's
Speaker 4: an opportune time to come in.
Speaker 5: Even with phone telephones.
Speaker 4: Back in the day cell phones, they weren't the first
Speaker 4: Is that a valid argument for AI or is there
Speaker 4: a material risk that they're late, maybe too late?
Speaker 3: No, I think there's there's certainly personance to that. We're
Speaker 3: very early in this sort of AI revolutional I'm increasing
Speaker 3: think of it's more a heat solution. They have not
Speaker 3: completely completely missed out on this, but they do still
Speaker 3: need to get moving right. They still do still need
Speaker 3: to get at to that table. Of course, the advantage
Speaker 3: they have is you can still access a lot of
Speaker 3: the AI products through there through their platform. Right, Chat
Speaker 3: GPT is an app Open Open AI hasn't a chat
Speaker 3: GPT app that I have on my iPhone, So like
Speaker 3: on that basis, it's kind of okay, we're not yet
Speaker 3: seeing and.
Speaker 1: It will struggle to see.
Speaker 3: I personally struggle to see how it will work that
Speaker 3: you will have fully AI voice assistance like Google Assistant
Speaker 3: or Alexa.
Speaker 1: We're not seeing those come out just yet.
Speaker 3: Like, I think they've got a little bit of time
Speaker 3: until the costs come down and the processing power for
Speaker 3: that to be a real threat to else.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much in London. This is the most
Speaker 2: important conversation of the day, Bob Michael's with us and
Speaker 2: then pause. You mentioned when we were chatting before at
Speaker 2: Banker's Trust, which is iconic years ago and all sorts
Speaker 2: of work in the United Kingdom and now holding court
Speaker 2: for mister Diamond. He has to brief James Diamond on
Speaker 2: what yields are going to do. Imagine that. But I
Speaker 2: want to talk about you look great today, by the way,
Speaker 2: and YouTube can you see this? I mean Michael with
Speaker 2: a bow tie. Thank you, Solid sartorial Solid. I told
Speaker 2: you you and others made a guest the other day
Speaker 2: and Paul noted that he had Near East Anthropology as
Speaker 2: his parchment. BA. Right now, liberal arts and particularly the classics,
Speaker 2: are getting killed across American universities. Your pen it's truly
Speaker 2: definitive under classical studies. Defend right now the value you
Speaker 2: got out of a classical studies education to get you
Speaker 2: to worry about duration and convexity.
Speaker 7: So there are many other things you study at university.
Speaker 7: And I did a lot of sciences, which ultimately helped
Speaker 7: me with bondmath. But I always thought of classics as
Speaker 7: my avocation while I was studying other things that I
Speaker 7: knew would lead to a vocation. And I think if
Speaker 7: you get that balance, it makes for a far better
Speaker 7: university life.
Speaker 2: I totally agree. I'm the strongest point since did you
Speaker 2: study Latin and Greek? Are you like former Prime Minister Johnson?
Speaker 2: Where you can waltz right now into Latin or Arma?
Speaker 7: We're room quake kind of Troy. I quy primus aboris?
Speaker 2: Can we can we get that tape? Robert Broughton?
Speaker 7: Can you be sure that we get you?
Speaker 2: Please?
Speaker 7: Few few tea pot Thrisimachus. There you go, you learn it,
Speaker 7: you never forget it.
Speaker 2: That's great, Paul, can you save the damn interview?
Speaker 4: I can save it because he also got a CFA
Speaker 4: that got some to where he is. Hey, so we're
Speaker 4: in good shape. So Bob, what do we do here?
Speaker 4: I mean, we're going to get a big inflation print tomorrow.
Speaker 4: A lot of folks are trying to figure out what
Speaker 4: this Federal Reserve.
Speaker 5: Is going to do.
Speaker 4: It seems like, you know, march off the table. May
Speaker 4: not sure, maybe push it back to June four A
Speaker 4: rate cut?
Speaker 5: How are you guys? A Morgan stantly thinking about this?
Speaker 7: Honestly, Paul, I just want to enjoy the soft landing. Okay,
Speaker 7: we're in the midst of it now. We've got very
Speaker 7: low unemployment. We've got stable inflation. We look at the
Speaker 7: six month annualized rate of core PC. It's currently one
Speaker 7: point nine percent. Tomorrow will likely get a point four it.
Speaker 7: We'll push it up to two point four. It's okay.
Speaker 7: It's in touching distance of two percent. You go back
Speaker 7: a few years it was six point six percent. So
Speaker 7: I think the Fed is right to just pause here.
Speaker 7: I think if they look at inflation on a shorter
Speaker 7: term basis, they have to be real happy with it.
Speaker 7: But they were late to hiking rates thinking inflation would
Speaker 7: be transitory. They can't make that mistake again. So June
Speaker 7: still looks like ours and everyone else's central case.
Speaker 4: All right, I said Morgan Stain. Of course, JP Moore.
Speaker 4: It's all Morgan's you know, at some point at in time, back.
Speaker 7: When it probably back in the day when it was so.
Speaker 4: I mean, you think about this market I'm looking at
Speaker 4: I end. Go on the Bloomberg terminal, that's the Bloomberg
Speaker 4: index browser, and you get all the fixed income indexes,
Speaker 4: most of which Bloomberg owns we're in the red this
Speaker 4: year twenty twenty two. Is this brutal for the fixed
Speaker 4: income market? A little bit of performance last year thanks
Speaker 4: to November and December. Now, where do I go into
Speaker 4: fixed incomes ses? What are you walking around a trading floor?
Speaker 4: What are your traders doing?
Speaker 7: So there are a couple things. And I was out
Speaker 7: at a dinner last night with about fifty financial advisors
Speaker 7: and we were talking about this. And my greatest concern
Speaker 7: is not that the market rallies to one percent. I
Speaker 7: don't really want that. I'd rather have the market back
Speaker 7: up to about five percent to give more investors an
Speaker 7: opportunity to get into the market. And I think you
Speaker 7: when you well, you look at the amount of money
Speaker 7: and money market funds, it's five and a half percent.
Speaker 7: People want to get in. They want a slightly higher yield.
Speaker 7: You look at pension funds, they they want a slightly
Speaker 7: higher yield. I look at the aggregate bond indecks. At
Speaker 7: the end of December thirty one, twenty twenty two, it
Speaker 7: was four point sixty seven percent, yield four point seven percent,
Speaker 7: and we were looking at four additional rate hikes at
Speaker 7: the start of twenty twenty three. This morning five point
Speaker 7: zero percent, So you're up about thirty basis points and
Speaker 7: we're looking at three to five rate cuts.
Speaker 2: This year and Michael Ferral is going to tell you
Speaker 2: we're a long way from potential GDP and for whatever reason,
Speaker 2: let's say the stimulus whatever. But I'm just imagining. I mean,
Speaker 2: I mean the new Park Avenue offices is JP Mortin
Speaker 2: boy Jamie will have a lunch up in the girders,
Speaker 2: like it's like you know one of those photos black.
Speaker 5: Away from inside that goes Bob, come on up with
Speaker 5: me and sit on.
Speaker 7: A come in broadcast from there.
Speaker 2: We'd like to do it, seriously, I'd like to do that.
Speaker 2: You line up, you and mister Diamond, and the number
Speaker 2: one question mister Diamond's going to have for yours team
Speaker 2: is all this cash that's out there, How does Bob
Speaker 2: Michaels think the deployment of trillions of dollars of cash
Speaker 2: at the margin will occur?
Speaker 7: Well, I think it's going to go into a lot
Speaker 7: of different places. First, I think a lot of it
Speaker 7: will stay where it is because you get a yield
Speaker 7: on cash which you didn't get before. And you know
Speaker 7: the Fed cuts rates a few hundred bag let's say
Speaker 7: they take it down to three percent, you're still going
Speaker 7: to get a yield on kash about three percent I
Speaker 7: think a lot of it's coming into the bond market.
Speaker 7: Everyone is waiting for the Fed cut rates. That makes
Speaker 7: cash less attractive. That's where a lot of it goes.
Speaker 2: Because we're doing almost no FED talk because we're talking
Speaker 2: in vidio. Bob Michael doesn't know what in vidio is.
Speaker 2: Let's listen to Chairman Powell.
Speaker 7: Here, we're room quay kind of troy I que primus aboris.
Speaker 2: Well, there we go. Bob didn't have his headphones on.
Speaker 2: We just played Jerome Powell saying some Latin there.
Speaker 7: Okay, it was almost brief done as well.
Speaker 2: Did the press conference? Doesn't make any sense sense to you?
Speaker 2: Or is Jerome Powell speaking Latin?
Speaker 7: I think they're going in the current. So you go
Speaker 7: back to December and the infamous pivot with the ten
Speaker 7: year at about four point two zero percent, it looked
Speaker 7: like inflation was coming down very rapidly, and that was
Speaker 7: room for them to start bringing down rates. I think
Speaker 7: at the recent and upcoming press conferences, inflation is going
Speaker 7: to be a little bit north of two percent, So
Speaker 7: you're going to hear them try and dampen the expectation
Speaker 7: that the FED might step in and march your main.
Speaker 4: Fixed income currencies, commodities, the thick group. That's kind of
Speaker 4: where you are. Let's talk about commodities. Is there a
Speaker 4: commodities play out there?
Speaker 5: What are we doing?
Speaker 4: Is a lot of people tell me to just buy
Speaker 4: gold and sell everything else on the commodity space or bitcoin?
Speaker 7: Yes, I like that. I think it comes into the
Speaker 7: greater fit protectorate. Yah. I don't know exactly what it
Speaker 7: is there.
Speaker 4: And JP Morgan, I'm not sure you're bosses brought onto
Speaker 4: this bitcoin thing.
Speaker 7: Yeah. I think the whole issue with the commodity complex
Speaker 7: is there was a lot of expectation a year ago
Speaker 7: about China reopening, and it reopened, but not with the
Speaker 7: momentum that everyone thought. So suddenly things look a little
Speaker 7: bit overpriced. You're starting to see that even with energy.
Speaker 7: You look at what's happened in the Middle East, and
Speaker 7: you would have thought energy oil would be north of
Speaker 7: one hundred and it's not. So. I think it's also
Speaker 7: telling us that the broader global economy is also ratcheting
Speaker 7: down from where it was. These are all good things
Speaker 7: for central banks.
Speaker 2: A couple of days ago, we had a firestorm. This
Speaker 2: is for global Wall Street, for the CFA, Institute. Good
Speaker 2: morning Mary down in Charlottesville. And with this is Bob
Speaker 2: Michael of JP Morgan. He and I have darkened the
Speaker 2: door of the chartered Financial Analyst program. We both survived.
Speaker 2: Daniel Perlis was on, Who's got a wonderful book out
Speaker 2: which basically says, eminem theory doesn't work. Is not Candy,
Speaker 2: It's not Hershey's. It is Miller and Medigliani, Medigliana and Miller,
Speaker 2: and it was a theory that came up years ago.
Speaker 2: I want you to tell me about fancy cfa math
Speaker 2: in the bond market and in market capitalization against super
Speaker 2: big tech firms that have three percent debt your world.
Speaker 2: I'm just baffled by how they have so little debt,
Speaker 2: in the veracity of what you and I were. Wean
Speaker 2: done with Merton, Miller and Medigliani.
Speaker 7: Well, we've been through this before, because there were other
Speaker 7: companies in other industries that generated a tremendous amount of
Speaker 7: free cash flow, and the bond market would have liked
Speaker 7: to have welcomed them with open arms and parked their
Speaker 7: debt for a long period of time, and they just
Speaker 7: did in issue a lot. I think of Walmart going
Speaker 7: back thirty years there were times when people refer to
Speaker 7: Bristol Meyer's debt as a museum piece because they didn't
Speaker 7: issue enough. And you know, this is just where we
Speaker 7: are in the US economy, where the tech industry is
Speaker 7: the one which is seeing a lot of top line growth,
Speaker 7: a lot of revenue, a lot of free cash flow,
Speaker 7: and that's able to sustain their R and D budgets
Speaker 7: and allow them to do other things.
Speaker 2: What is the efficacy of a big tech company moving
Speaker 2: from three percent to a responsible level of debt. I
Speaker 2: don't know, Paul, eight nine, ten, whatever. What is there
Speaker 2: a social good to that?
Speaker 7: There's there's a shareholder good to that, because if they're
Speaker 7: able to borrow, let's say, in the current market environment,
Speaker 7: borrow tenure at around five percent and use those proceeds
Speaker 7: to buy back shares of stock, you would assume the
Speaker 7: return on equity would be much higher than the five
Speaker 7: percent that they're borrowing at. And I think you see
Speaker 7: some of that going on. But you're looking at at
Speaker 7: just one industry right now that has everything going for it,
Speaker 7: and rightly so that's the key to efficiency and productivity
Speaker 7: going forward.
Speaker 4: Hey, Bob, if I want to take some credit risk here,
Speaker 4: what do you recommend stay in that investment grade space
Speaker 4: or do I even go out in some of the
Speaker 4: high yield because high yield is where the performance has been.
Speaker 4: Like last year, I was surprised how yield performed as
Speaker 4: well as it did, because everybody was telling me about
Speaker 4: a recession, but hi yield really performed.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and that it's the great question because the difference
Speaker 7: between owning just investment grade or both investment grade and
Speaker 7: below investment grade comes down to your call on recession
Speaker 7: or not. And I would say this time last year,
Speaker 7: for sure, it looked like we were head into recession.
Speaker 7: Maybe we did. Maybe the regional banking crisis was a
Speaker 7: recession and the policy response solved it in a couple
Speaker 7: of weeks. I don't know, But at the start of
Speaker 7: this year, there's nothing out there that tells us we're
Speaker 7: heading into recession. We like credit. We're using every opportunity
Speaker 7: to buy it, that includes high yield. I know you
Speaker 7: had a conversation earlier about the private credit market. We
Speaker 7: look at the private credit market as having absorbed a
Speaker 7: lot of the marginal borrowers that would have come in
Speaker 7: the public high yield market previous cycle. So it's there
Speaker 7: and I think the way we look at private credit
Speaker 7: is it's effectively re ensuring the public credit markets. So
Speaker 7: we look at US public high yield. First of all,
Speaker 7: six percent of it defaulted away in twenty twenty, so
Speaker 7: you had survivor bias with the remaining ninety four percent.
Speaker 7: You look at corporate fundamentals, they look very strong. You
Speaker 7: look at the issuance that would have been marginal. That's
Speaker 7: in the private credit market. We have to accept that
Speaker 7: private credit is a new and very powerful source of
Speaker 7: non bank lending that didn't exist.
Speaker 5: In case of guys get exposure to that. Do you
Speaker 5: I mean, what do you guys do?
Speaker 7: Not putting it in public funds. But I will tell
Speaker 7: you our clients, whether it's retail or institutional, they're going
Speaker 7: in full speed ahead. And I know there's a lot
Speaker 7: of controversy on mark to market, but it really is
Speaker 7: the equivalent of a bank making a loan, and you know,
Speaker 7: you roll eighteen months forward. Some of the legacy loans
Speaker 7: look a look bit stale with current pricing. They'll reset
Speaker 7: and then you're going to have some credit issues and
Speaker 7: until you work them out, you're going to carry them
Speaker 7: as money good unless they're your timeline.
Speaker 2: Do you and your team have in your head for
Speaker 2: that workout of private credity and the fiction of what
Speaker 2: they're the pricing is, is it? Oh?
Speaker 7: I think I think a lot of it's going on now.
Speaker 7: I think that there was a lot of marginal borrowing
Speaker 7: over the last couple of years. I think the beauty
Speaker 7: of private credit is there's a lot of dry power.
Speaker 7: It steps in, it applies a haircut and does a
Speaker 7: lot of restructuring. But let's not forget private credit. Financial
Speaker 7: crisis two thousand and seven was about zero. I'm sure
Speaker 7: there was some out there, but it didn't exist. And
Speaker 7: now you're talking estimates are one point six trillion, which
Speaker 7: is an equal in size to the public highyield markets.
Speaker 7: And whether you quipple or not, about how it's being
Speaker 7: deployed and how it's being marked that and some of
Speaker 7: its dry power. A lot of that has gone into
Speaker 7: the economy. It's gone to places which have hired workers
Speaker 7: and created a level of economic activity. And that's probably
Speaker 7: another reason that we managed to skate through last year
Speaker 7: with pretty good economics.
Speaker 2: James Diamond in the news today looking at Texas and
Speaker 2: j have you been to the JP Morgan offices in Texas.
Speaker 7: I was just in Texas a couple weeks ago. It's
Speaker 7: been a big conference.
Speaker 2: What's a pixie does to the Texas economy that mister
Speaker 2: Diamond is talking about today.
Speaker 7: I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess.
Speaker 2: There're seeing a lot of conversation ended ugly, but.
Speaker 5: I mean it's interesting.
Speaker 4: I mean it's we're seeing so many financial services companies,
Speaker 4: Tom and other companies including Tesla, relocate to Texas.
Speaker 5: For Glown Incorporated.
Speaker 7: Do you know what's also missing the cycle? Any problem
Speaker 7: in municipalities. Where is a municipality that's under pressure? Where
Speaker 7: is the next Puerto Rico? Where is the concern over
Speaker 7: Chicago or Illinois or California. It's not there. And we
Speaker 7: look at the state rainy day funds and there's still
Speaker 7: flush with a lot of cash. Well states that didn't
Speaker 7: have any day funds.
Speaker 2: The Chancellor today in the United Kingdom saying I'm sorry,
Speaker 2: texts revenues are better in the United Kingdom than anybody imagined.
Speaker 2: I mean, and again, is this misguess on a slow economy?
Speaker 5: And missisas Yeah.
Speaker 7: So wonderful muni bonds. I've got to leave muni bonds
Speaker 7: talk to financial advisor.
Speaker 2: Come back with your muni bond expert. Seriously, I'd love that.
Speaker 2: But you know, if you want to drag somebody along
Speaker 2: and you, they can give us the credit on the
Speaker 2: Denver airport or something like that. That'd be very good. Boy, Michael,
Speaker 2: this has been wonderful. The low point was a Greek
Speaker 2: Latin discussion.
Speaker 7: You know you start there. Thanks for having me, it's
Speaker 7: a pleasure.
Speaker 2: It was great. We've got this codified forever here without question,
Speaker 2: Foreign Affairs and the Console Foreign Relations is leading with
Speaker 2: our dialogue on our fractured geopolitical world, all of us,
Speaker 2: starting with the stewardship of Richard Hawse, Ambassador. Thank you
Speaker 2: in your retirement. I can't believe you're retired for joining
Speaker 2: us today. I'm going to start with an open question,
Speaker 2: Richard Howson, and this goes back to your wonderful book
Speaker 2: The World. Do we have a foreign policy? Does America
Speaker 2: have an identifiable theme, strategy, or plan.
Speaker 8: Well, Tom, first of all, it's great to be back
Speaker 8: with you. Second, I'm busier than ever, not retired, retired
Speaker 8: for old people. Does America have a foreign policy? We
Speaker 8: either have none or we have several. Either way, but
Speaker 8: what we don't have is a coherent, consistent one that
Speaker 8: enjoys broad support. And that's your real problem. If you
Speaker 8: want to be a great power, your friends, your allies
Speaker 8: need to see you as reliable. We are clearly not
Speaker 8: in Your foes need to see you as formidable, and
Speaker 8: I think they increasingly have questions. So whatever it is
Speaker 8: we have, it's not succeeding.
Speaker 2: The color for us and new isolationism. I understand it's
Speaker 2: across a political landscape from mister Trump to mister Biden.
Speaker 2: But how do you perceive the ancient American tradition to say,
Speaker 2: we're protected by oceans. We really don't want to play
Speaker 2: in the international relations game.
Speaker 8: Tom, It's an important question. Isolationism is something that never disappears.
Speaker 8: It's almost like a gene in the body politic, and
Speaker 8: every once in a while it breaks out. I think
Speaker 8: now it's three and a half decades after the end
Speaker 8: of the Cold War, we're seeing it. It's not evenly
Speaker 8: spread across the political spectrum. I think it's largely, not entirely,
Speaker 8: but largely now in the province of the Republican Party.
Speaker 8: We see it most very really in the House of Representatives.
Speaker 8: The more radical Republicans who are obviously hitching their wagon
Speaker 8: to Donald Trump. And I think what we're seeing is
Speaker 8: a traditional pullback from the world, a sense that we
Speaker 8: have to worry more about butter than guns, even though
Speaker 8: withdrawal from the world, as we've learned historically, is truly dangerous,
Speaker 8: and even though our domestic problems aren't caused by a
Speaker 8: lack of spending so much as how we spend our money.
Speaker 8: But that said, the resurgence of isolationism is a real threat.
Speaker 8: We're seeing it obviously in the case of Ukraine, but
Speaker 8: we're seeing it also across the world. I've just come
Speaker 8: back from a trip to the Middle East, and I've
Speaker 8: got to tell you, our friends look at us there.
Speaker 8: I've also recently been in Europe and Asia, and it's
Speaker 8: the number one topic on the mind of every American friend,
Speaker 8: partner and ally is can we continue to count on you?
Speaker 4: So, Richard, let's kind of go to some of the
Speaker 4: hotspots around the world here. Let's start with Ukraine here,
Speaker 4: because I mean it's front center here in terms of
Speaker 4: getting a.
Speaker 5: New aid bill for Ukraine.
Speaker 4: Can you give us your latest thoughts on kind of
Speaker 4: how you think the US position Visa VI Ukraine will
Speaker 4: play out over the coming weeks and months.
Speaker 8: Look here we are at the beginning of the third
Speaker 8: year of this phase of the war. The glass is
Speaker 8: half full if you look at how well Ukraine has
Speaker 8: done with American and European help. But recent trends of
Speaker 8: god to leave people worried. Is Russia's throwing much more
Speaker 8: mass at this conflict than Ukraine is now able to
Speaker 8: counter with. Give a the falling off of American help,
Speaker 8: and I don't have a crystal ball whether ultimately the
Speaker 8: Speaker the House or representatives will figure out a way
Speaker 8: to provide new military aid to Ukraine. So it's possible
Speaker 8: we drift through the election in November without new help,
Speaker 8: in which case Ukraine will hang on, but it will
Speaker 8: gradually lose some territory. Or there'll be maybe a partial
Speaker 8: renewal of American aid, which is my bet. You won't
Speaker 8: get the full amount the President wants, but you'll get something.
Speaker 8: And again, I think at the end of this year,
Speaker 8: the third year of fighting of this phase of the war,
Speaker 8: I think you'll have a battlefield that pretty much looks
Speaker 8: the way it does now, with Ukraine still in control
Speaker 8: of roughly seventy five to eighty percent of its territory,
Speaker 8: and then this one way or another, the war will
Speaker 8: either continue or we'll see a stage set for some
Speaker 8: type of negotiation.
Speaker 4: All right, let's switch gears to the Middle East, because, again,
Speaker 4: similar to Ukraine, it doesn't seem like there's any near
Speaker 4: term resolution here. How do you think the political calculus,
Speaker 4: the military calculus stacks up in that part of the world.
Speaker 8: Well, you're right, there isn't any near term resolution. At most,
Speaker 8: there'll be another temporary cease fire with an agreement to
Speaker 8: release some hostages exchange, allow some prisoners to get out
Speaker 8: of jail, more aid to get into Gaza. But that's
Speaker 8: not to be confused with a strategic and to the
Speaker 8: conflict in their camping.
Speaker 9: Uh.
Speaker 8: This Israeli government is looking at a long term occupation.
Speaker 8: There were jects working with the Palestinian authority. Hamas is
Speaker 8: obviously unacceptable. So there's no the prerequisites. So stability or
Speaker 8: peace are simply not there, no matter how much the
Speaker 8: United States might might urge them. There's also the danger
Speaker 8: of the war widening. So I think we have to
Speaker 8: assume that a turbulent Middle East is the backdrop for
Speaker 8: the foreseeable.
Speaker 2: Future ambassador host with US Richard Haass with his folks,
Speaker 2: can't say enough about his legacy at the Council on
Speaker 2: Foreign Relations full closure. I'm remember there and Foreign Affairs
Speaker 2: Magazine subscribe, throw to your children and say just shut
Speaker 2: up and read one article, pick any article. So, Ambassador,
Speaker 2: I did a panel at Davos with Lawrence Freedman of
Speaker 2: King's College. Obviously definitive on Warren, particularly with a continental perspective,
Speaker 2: and his peace in Foreign Affairs this month is something
Speaker 2: I think we're not thinking of, which is instead of
Speaker 2: US Congress, maybe Ukraine. Obviously, Lawrence Freedman's thinking about Putin
Speaker 2: and he makes it real sure, real clear. It's a
Speaker 2: war Putin still can't win. How close would you suggest
Speaker 2: we are to diplomacy or negotiation with mister Putin?
Speaker 8: First all, it's good to see you, quoting Laurence Freaveman.
Speaker 8: He and I were students at Oxford together, and over
Speaker 8: the last forty fifty years, Laurie's just one of the
Speaker 8: most thoughtful people writing about international relations that is out there.
Speaker 8: I think Tom, we're not in the realm of negotiations
Speaker 8: this year. Everybody Putin wants to see what happens in November.
Speaker 8: He's hoping that time is his friend. And I think
Speaker 8: the Ukrainians are not yet prepared to enter a negotiation
Speaker 8: where they would have to at least temporarily give up
Speaker 8: the reality that they're not going to get their territory
Speaker 8: back to military force. I think, if you have a situation,
Speaker 8: let me just paint it for you. If Joe Biden
Speaker 8: gets re elected, if you have a Republican Senate, which
Speaker 8: you're almost certain to have, and if the House goes Democratic,
Speaker 8: that would be the best outcome for Ukraine. And I
Speaker 8: think that would send the signal to putin that time
Speaker 8: isn't his friend, and I could see that bringing Russian
Speaker 8: to the negotiating negotiating table. On the other hand, if
Speaker 8: Donald Trump wins or if the House stays Republican, that
Speaker 8: I think that weakens Ukraine. And then the question for
Speaker 8: Ukraine is are they prepared to have a negotiation without
Speaker 8: a lot of wind in their sales? And that would
Speaker 8: be obviously a much more fraud dangerous sort of diplomatic context.
Speaker 8: But one way or another, I think we're moving in
Speaker 8: the direction of diplomacy. The question is who does.
Speaker 2: It favor Ambassador David, and you know out on live chat,
Speaker 2: this is on YouTube foks forgetting some really brilliant questions
Speaker 2: and David brings it right over to what we're talking about.
Speaker 2: Ambassador Wh're saying, Okay, we're watching Ukraine, but so is China.
Speaker 2: Does our behavior on the continent of Europe affect The
Speaker 2: math that Beijing has is they look at Taipei.
Speaker 8: Tom absolutely they see these things may be squares on
Speaker 8: the chessboard, but everything we do or don't do sends
Speaker 8: a message not simply about our capability, but our willingness
Speaker 8: to act. And America's capability is on parallel, but our
Speaker 8: will is increasingly questioned. So China is watching what is
Speaker 8: going on with the congressional holding up of AID. They're
Speaker 8: looking at American political dysfunction and on division. They want
Speaker 8: to see what happens in November. So I think this
Speaker 8: year twenty twenty four, the Chinese have made the strict
Speaker 8: eg determination. They want stability in the US China relationship.
Speaker 8: We saw that in November when Hesen Ping and Joe
Speaker 8: Biden met. China doesn't want to see new American economic
Speaker 8: limits on trade or investment. But depending upon what happens
Speaker 8: here in November, when they take their America there, when
Speaker 8: they take their look at America's will and to come
Speaker 8: to Taiwan's defense, things could change. So I think again
Speaker 8: this year things are calm, but China is watching what
Speaker 8: happens with Ukraine, watching what happens with our domestic politics,
Speaker 8: and I think the most interesting moments will come in
Speaker 8: the aftermath of November, when they basically, you know, their
Speaker 8: equivalent of the CIA, draws up their assessments of American
Speaker 8: willingness to act on behalf of a trends in Asia.
Speaker 4: Doctor Haws, can you give us a sense of the
Speaker 4: relative position of mister Putin in Russia with his people
Speaker 4: in terms of support? Is it as strong as it
Speaker 4: appears to us.
Speaker 5: On the outside?
Speaker 4: It seems like, boy, this is a tough war, you know,
Speaker 4: lots of casualties.
Speaker 5: How is his position internally?
Speaker 8: You're going to be hearing from Angelas Stent, who's one
Speaker 8: of the countries, you know, leading excerpt. But I think
Speaker 8: Putin's I think he's very strong, and I think a
Speaker 8: lot of the so called Russian experts got it wrong
Speaker 8: after the Pregosian challenge. They thought Putin was weak and
Speaker 8: on the ropes. I think he largely controls the narrative
Speaker 8: inside his country. The murder of Navali, and let's call
Speaker 8: it what it is, It was a murder. It just
Speaker 8: shows the impunity with which he acts. He's done a
Speaker 8: pretty good job at casting this with Russia as victim,
Speaker 8: even though Russia is the aggressor. So I think anyone
Speaker 8: who's hoping that this war is going to come to
Speaker 8: an end because suddenly there's going to be regime change
Speaker 8: in Russia, I think they're kidding themselves.
Speaker 2: Ambassador, we need to make some news today, now that
Speaker 2: you're completely retired and sliding through the day five days
Speaker 2: a week, would you consider public service to America again,
Speaker 2: whether it is on Ireland or another matter? Who at
Speaker 2: whatever the election outcome is in November, can we see
Speaker 2: has in Washington the time.
Speaker 8: I'd like to think that one does public service on
Speaker 8: the outside, whether it's appearing on shows like yours, or
Speaker 8: I do a weekly newsletter called Home and Away, which
Speaker 8: people can find on substeck. I think there's lots of
Speaker 8: ways to contribute. But sure, Look, I work for four presidents.
Speaker 8: I've been honored to do that. I've worked for Democrats,
Speaker 8: and Republicans, from Jimmy Carter through George W. Bush and
Speaker 8: and even now. I talk regularly to people in the government.
Speaker 8: So I'm always looking for a way, as are always
Speaker 8: prepared to be to serve this country, particularly now this. Yeah,
Speaker 8: this is a truly critical time in our history, both
Speaker 8: domestic internationally. This is not a democracy, is not a
Speaker 8: spectator sport. This is a time for you know, for
Speaker 8: what I would call true patriots. That word is now abused,
Speaker 8: but for people who care about this country. It's a
Speaker 8: time to get informed, get involved, and of course if
Speaker 8: any you know, if I think I can actually you know, help,
Speaker 8: of course of course I would too.
Speaker 2: Back to back really our books the world and also
Speaker 2: the Bill of Obligations as well. Richard Hass, thank you
Speaker 2: so much, Ambassador Hass retired. I love the guy's working
Speaker 2: like a fifteen hour exactly seven days a week. Richard
Speaker 2: Hass there, of course, with all of his work with
Speaker 2: the Council on Foreign Relations, this is an honor, folks.
Speaker 2: The shock of mister Putin and what he did on
Speaker 2: February twenty fourth, I had to jumpstart my book of
Speaker 2: the summer and it took somewhere in the vicinity of
Speaker 2: twelve seconds, Paul to know immediately that Putin's World, Russia
Speaker 2: against the West and with the Rest, is the only book.
Speaker 2: It is. Angela's Stent on Vladimir Putin, jaw dropping about
Speaker 2: how he got to where he is. We are honored
Speaker 2: that from the Brooking Institution, they're non resident senior Fellow.
Speaker 2: Angela Stent joins us this morning for an update. Angela,
Speaker 2: if you had to redo Putin's World today with a
Speaker 2: new prologue or epilogue, what would you write?
Speaker 9: Well, I think it reinforces everything that I wrote in
Speaker 9: the book. But even when I wrote that book, I
Speaker 9: didn't expect a full scale invasion of Ukraine and Putin
Speaker 9: just completely turning against the West like that. So I
Speaker 9: mean I said in the book that Putin was out
Speaker 9: to revise the post Cold War order, that he didn't
Speaker 9: accept the collapse of the Soviet Union. But he's done
Speaker 9: it much more aggressively and probably sooner than I would
Speaker 9: have thought.
Speaker 2: And I think of Robert Gates and Condaleza Rice in
Speaker 2: Belgrade a long time ago, and there was this hole
Speaker 2: back and forth, and it was basically Merscheimer of Chicago
Speaker 2: and others with realist politics saying don't push, don't push,
Speaker 2: another saying we've got to expand, et cetera. And here
Speaker 2: we are doctor Stent with Paul. I still can't believe
Speaker 2: I'm saying this. Finland in Sweden, in Nato. Angela state,
Speaker 2: how does that change the calculus for Putin's world to
Speaker 2: have everything going wrong from Turkey from Istumbul, from Ancora
Speaker 2: up to Stockholm and Helsinki.
Speaker 9: So obviously this is one of Putin's great achievements, unintended
Speaker 9: to have the Baltic Sea now in Nato Lake. But
Speaker 9: it's not going to change, you know, his conviction that
Speaker 9: the West is against him and that he can outlast
Speaker 9: them and in a way out maneuver them. So he's
Speaker 9: just doubling down now. I would say that both the
Speaker 9: Russia Ukraine War and the Israel Amas War have actually
Speaker 9: given him more influence in what the Russians now called
Speaker 9: the world Majority and we call the Global South. So
Speaker 9: he's actually gaining adherents there. And Russia is back in
Speaker 9: Africa in a way that it has to read since
Speaker 9: the Soviet collapse.
Speaker 4: Yes, Angela talked to us about kind of what's going
Speaker 4: on within Russia. How much support does mister Putin have
Speaker 4: among the populast?
Speaker 5: Did they not have?
Speaker 4: Does he not have the headwinds that maybe we hadn't
Speaker 4: passed wars, seeing body bags come home and that type
Speaker 4: of thing.
Speaker 5: Talk to us about how the populast is feeling.
Speaker 7: Yeah, So, the.
Speaker 9: Latest opinion polls by the independent polling organization Levadas still
Speaker 9: show that Putin has a seventy percent popularity rate, even
Speaker 9: though more than fifty percent of the Russians now say
Speaker 9: that they wish the war would and then there should
Speaker 9: be negotiations, but they don't want Russian League of Territory out.
Speaker 9: So don't forget a lot of those Russians. They they're
Speaker 9: not shown on their efficient TV screens the body bags
Speaker 9: coming back. People obviously know that in local towns and
Speaker 9: villages where they see them coming back. And we have
Speaker 9: seen protests by mothers and wives saying, you know, our
Speaker 9: men were mobilized in twenty twenty two and they've basically
Speaker 9: not come back. Yeah, but in such a repressive society,
Speaker 9: and the penalties for express senior opinions are so great,
Speaker 9: But that's really dampened popular unrest.
Speaker 8: If you like an opposition to this war, Angela.
Speaker 4: So from your perspective, I mean, I guess if we
Speaker 4: think back, just look at history, there's no reason to
Speaker 4: think that the Russians will grow tired of this. We've
Speaker 4: seen in their history how they can take so much
Speaker 4: pain for such a long period of time. How do
Speaker 4: you think they view a solution here to Ukraine? Is
Speaker 4: it absolute victory or can there be something negotiated?
Speaker 9: So I think at this point Putin is waiting for
Speaker 9: the results of our presidential election in November, hoping that
Speaker 9: we'll have a president that will cut all assistance and
Speaker 9: support for Ukraine. But I think the way they see
Speaker 9: it is they're going to hold out. As you say
Speaker 9: that down that many times in history. In the end
Speaker 9: the Europeans and the US. The result, well, we can
Speaker 9: look what's going on in our own congress. We can't
Speaker 9: even appropriate the sixty billion dollars for Ukraine. I think
Speaker 9: at the moment, who probably understands that he can't take
Speaker 9: the whole of Ukraine, but he could get a settlement.
Speaker 9: He could then whether Ukrainians would have to make concessions
Speaker 9: on territory, and then the army could regroup. And remember
Speaker 9: he told Taker Kossen our goal is the denoxification of Ukraine,
Speaker 9: and that means regime change in Ukraine. So in the
Speaker 9: long run, that's still what he is.
Speaker 2: Aftertone, let me circle back to our conversation with Richard
Speaker 2: Haas earlier this morning and to ask you, and this
Speaker 2: is playing off of a fabulous foreign affairs article from
Speaker 2: a number of months ago where Angel's stent folks looks
Speaker 2: at America in the world's middle powers, do you detect
Speaker 2: a foreign policy that's coherent in Washington?
Speaker 9: Unfortunately, I'm not sure, you know, particularly towards dealing with
Speaker 9: these countries in the global South. You know, they are
Speaker 9: on the fence about all of this. I think democracy
Speaker 9: versus autocracy. Casting it as that is not very helpful
Speaker 9: and it hasn't.
Speaker 8: Been very productive.
Speaker 9: So I think we really have to impress on these
Speaker 9: countries though. What Russia is doing is, you know, a
Speaker 9: violation of the un chotter of international law. And if
Speaker 9: Russia can get away with it, who knows who might
Speaker 9: invade them and get away with it.
Speaker 2: Too, Angel, thank you so much. Angels start with us
Speaker 2: with Brookings in her fabulous book Putin's World. You do
Speaker 2: look at the front pages. Tell me it's not beyond meat.
Speaker 10: No, it's not beyond me. No, definitely, but it has
Speaker 10: to do with food. So there you go. Americans are
Speaker 10: starting to talk more about what they're doing differently, how
Speaker 10: they're changing how and what they eat, how they're changing
Speaker 10: how they live because of food inflation. So these are
Speaker 10: people who responded to a Wall Street Journal article. They're
Speaker 10: talking about how they're doing potluck dinners. That's something different.
Speaker 10: They're eating rice and beans instead of meat, so they
Speaker 10: still get their protein. They're planning meals, they're making spreadsheets
Speaker 10: to do this. They're buying more in bulk, so they're
Speaker 10: going more costco runs, maybe clipping coupons. They're cooking simpler meals,
Speaker 10: so now things like meat loaf and tuna casserole are
Speaker 10: coming back again because they're cheaper to make. They're cheaper
Speaker 10: and easier to make. There you go. And they're also
Speaker 10: doing things which I found industring. They're gardening, they're imposing
Speaker 10: limits on eating out, which I know my families do,
Speaker 10: and we're cutting back on how much we eat out.
Speaker 10: And then they're hunting and fishing for their food. They're
Speaker 10: doing that on.
Speaker 2: The you know, oh look a squirrel. Okay, Bill, go
Speaker 2: get the squirrel Heather log in the Washington Post. They
Speaker 2: quote Constant Hunter working with Diane Swank today as well
Speaker 2: the headline We've been looking at inflation the wrong way
Speaker 2: and John Sylvia x Wells Fargo has been brilliant on this.
Speaker 2: And I think you're just dead on Lisa. I mean,
Speaker 2: I I take great offense from people looking at Q
Speaker 2: over Q.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the store brand stuff versus I mean, that's like
Speaker 4: thirty discount.
Speaker 8: Yes.
Speaker 4: I didn't even think about that until several years ago.
Speaker 4: Now it's become much more of a saying so true.
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the photo here in the one Sheton
Speaker 2: Post and they don't say what the store is. The
Speaker 2: store is in Bethesda, Maryland, but I'm looking at the
Speaker 2: milk that comes in the door at my house and
Speaker 2: I might as well be buying beer. I mean six.
Speaker 10: Okay, since we're on the topic of money, did you
Speaker 10: know this that having five million is no longer enough
Speaker 10: to crack the top one percent tier in the US.
Speaker 10: This is research from Night Frank. It now takes at
Speaker 10: least five point eight million to join that richest tier
Speaker 10: of Americans, fifteen percent more than it was a year ago.
Speaker 10: The top spot for the highest threshold worldwide Monaco twelve
Speaker 10: point eight million. Surprise, we have Luxembourg, Switzerland. It takes
Speaker 10: about eight million to make the cut there. But they're
Speaker 10: just talking about different things in the article, like why
Speaker 10: Russia's evasion of Ukraine hurting the economy people when they
Speaker 10: were just starting to recover from the pandemic. That's prices
Speaker 10: for energy food surging. So you see that threshold is
Speaker 10: starting to take up a bit.
Speaker 2: To me, it really talks of the failure of the
Speaker 2: American retirement system. Roger Ferguson's let on this TIA. I'm
Speaker 2: not sure what the former vice chairman's doing right now,
Speaker 2: but this idea that the US government has that five
Speaker 2: hundred thousand dollars is a lot of money is just
Speaker 2: incredibly wrong. In off the mark about what is comfortable
Speaker 2: that you need? I mean, Ken, I mean Ken. The
Speaker 2: answer is what you're trying to do, Ken, is to
Speaker 2: retire and listen to the sound of the shores. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, there's just no question you want to retire
Speaker 2: with excellent waves.
Speaker 5: Yep, they were retired.
Speaker 10: Okay, I'm distracted, now I can use some of that.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 10: Next one is from USA Today, it's a warning actually
Speaker 10: for Netflix customers who pay their account through Apple. So apparently, yeah,
Speaker 10: they're billing statements the streaming subscription through Apple's iTunes or
Speaker 10: app stored. They're no longer going to be an option,
Speaker 10: so you have to change it by the next billing
Speaker 10: cycle or you won't be getting Netflix anymore. So it's
Speaker 10: it's something that happened back in twenty eighteen from what
Speaker 10: I understand, and now what happened is that those people
Speaker 10: who were grandfather well now it's their turn, so now
Speaker 10: they have to start, you know, switching.
Speaker 5: I just I just assumed Netflix is going to charge me.
Speaker 5: They're gonna take They're gonna take that.
Speaker 10: Not if it's aff they will find you.
Speaker 2: A couple of years ago I figured out how I
Speaker 2: was playing for three Netflix.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Thanks, I'm thankful with the Netflix for you know, putting
Speaker 4: that to bed, because exactly I had like some offspring
Speaker 4: on my credit card.
Speaker 5: Netflix to care that for me, I still did.
Speaker 2: It's just one small account, it's like or whatever.
Speaker 10: Now it happened come from from somewhere. I was trying
Speaker 10: to watch Netflix the other day and it said I
Speaker 10: couldn't because I had two many users.
Speaker 2: I just resigned up from Major League Baseball to enjoy
Speaker 2: the Red Sox losing. And they raise it five dollars.
Speaker 5: Okay, that's the front. Ye raise the fee, sure, and
Speaker 5: people will pay. People will pay it.
Speaker 2: I'll pay anything. They'll see the Detroit Tigers work fourteen people.
Speaker 2: Have you done one? No?
Speaker 10: This was a good one.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah yeah.
Speaker 10: New York Times they say that there's a new trend
Speaker 10: on TikTok. It's people posting and asking commenters how old
Speaker 10: do you think I am?
Speaker 2: This is the new thing? Yeah, thank you.
Speaker 10: Apparently it started because it was someone from gen Z
Speaker 10: who's at like eleven to twenty six year age who
Speaker 10: did it. Because there are studies that show that gen
Speaker 10: Z is aging faster than millennials.
Speaker 1: So there was this.
Speaker 10: Competition back and forth. But people, I mean, you're asking
Speaker 10: for trouble.
Speaker 5: That's I don't know.
Speaker 10: You post it out there and you ask people how
Speaker 10: old do you think you are?
Speaker 2: I don't know, live chats, how old do you think
Speaker 2: I am? What are they say?
Speaker 10: Yes, how old do you think I am?
Speaker 2: How old do you think I am?
Speaker 5: All right?
Speaker 10: Put it on the chat, yes, you know.
Speaker 5: So that's going.
Speaker 2: On one and four Riches right on, Lisa Mateo, that
Speaker 2: was very strong. Thank you. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast,
Speaker 2: bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
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