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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. There's that

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Speaker 2: cross currents here, and I said, get you know, surveillance

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Speaker 2: cross current reporter Alex Webb so joining us from London,

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Speaker 2: ere and everything in tech and particularly on Apple, Alex Web,

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Speaker 2: Alex Macworld just came out. But the two paragraph thing

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Speaker 2: I don't understand, which basically says if Apple and their

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Speaker 2: next road show upgrades the iPad, they're going to make

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Speaker 2: old iPad that we're still using not compatible with the

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Speaker 2: new iPad. For where you set is there shell Game

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Speaker 2: planned ups Lescence where the phone that Lisa Matteo has

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Speaker 2: in six months won't work because they got a new phone.

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Speaker 3: Apple gets asked about this and they often sort of

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Speaker 3: they deny that it's planned obsolescence, but they just sort

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Speaker 3: of say, well, it's just the nature of things sometimes,

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Speaker 3: you know, technology just has to move on, and we

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Speaker 3: want to create the best possible handsets that we do,

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Speaker 3: and therefore, in order to have the best hardware, have

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Speaker 3: to create the best software. And it's just the sort

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Speaker 3: of natural consequence of that. It's also that, you know,

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Speaker 3: we do know that essentially the innovations with each new

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Speaker 3: generation of device are little bit more iterative each time,

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Speaker 3: you know, less of a quantity leap, and so the

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Speaker 3: need to kind of like drive software upgrades and like

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Speaker 3: chip upgrades essentially are what is driving the actual handstet upgrades.

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Speaker 3: So even if Apple says they don't, a lot of

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Speaker 3: people look at it and go, this kind of it

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Speaker 3: is planned obso lessence.

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Speaker 4: So Alex in terms of moving on, boy, they had

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Speaker 4: a big announcement here just recently, moving on from the

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Speaker 4: electric car business, automated car business.

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Speaker 1: Can you tell us.

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Speaker 4: What their business was, what they were trying to do,

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Speaker 4: and why they walked away.

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Speaker 3: So it's important to qualify not an announcement. Right, Apple

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Speaker 3: has never quite the acknowledged what they were doing here. Right,

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Speaker 3: this is all from sources. Mark Guman's done a brilliant

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Speaker 3: job over there as a chronicling this. Like they started

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Speaker 3: back in twenty fourteen developing a car, and it has

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Speaker 3: been a very turbulent decade where they said, actually we're

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Speaker 3: not going to make a car. Where they didn't say,

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Speaker 3: but internally they decided we're not going to make a car,

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Speaker 3: We're just going to.

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Speaker 1: Make autonomous driving systems.

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Speaker 3: Then when they saw sort of Tesla go stratospheric, they won't,

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Speaker 3: actually we are going to make a car. Finally, it

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Speaker 3: seems that they have, you know, put paid to those

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Speaker 3: ambitions at the time. And the only the closest Tim

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Speaker 3: Cook came to talking about it was in twenty six

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Speaker 3: seventeen inter view of Emi Chang, our own Emily Chang,

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Speaker 3: and he said, we think that autonomous driving systems are

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Speaker 3: the biggest AI challenge. And if you look at where

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Speaker 3: things have developed in the past year or so, yeah, there.

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Speaker 1: Are two things that have happened.

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Speaker 3: Firstly, the electric vehicle market has become less appealing, and secondly,

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Speaker 3: the AI market has become massively appealing, and so all

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Speaker 3: these people AI wants they have working on the car,

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Speaker 3: they have this huge problem. They don't really have a

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Speaker 3: big AI consumer facing product. So if you can move

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Speaker 3: those to that, then it solves two issues for you.

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Speaker 4: I fortunately you mentioned that the interview with Tim Cook

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Speaker 4: with our own Bloomberg Television.

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Speaker 5: Let's go to that right now, take a listen.

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Speaker 6: We sort of see it as the mother of all

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Speaker 6: AI projects. It's probably one of the most difficult AI

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Speaker 6: projects actually to work on, and so autonomy is something

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Speaker 6: that's incredibly exciting for us, and but we'll see where

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Speaker 6: it takes.

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Speaker 4: As that was Tim Cook from Apple speaking with Bloomberg's

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Speaker 4: Emily Chang talking about the car here the automated car,

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Speaker 4: here the electric car.

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Speaker 5: So I mean, what does it tell you, Alex?

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Speaker 4: I mean I kind of feel like they're just kind

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Speaker 4: of going where the wind's blowing, and now the wind's

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Speaker 4: blowing towards AI, so let's put our resources. There is

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Speaker 4: there any concern about that?

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Speaker 3: I mean there's a push and a pull effect here, right.

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Speaker 3: I think with the with the car, they were essentially

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Speaker 3: initially and I think he said it in that into

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Speaker 3: as well, three pillars that had been kind of disrupting

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Speaker 3: the car industry. There was ride hailing, there was autonomous vehicles,

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Speaker 3: and there was electric vehicles, and essentially each one of

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Speaker 3: those has gradually eroded. Right hailing it transpise is not

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Speaker 3: a very good business, as Uberschelle orders will probably testified.

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Speaker 3: Well not share holder people got out of the stock.

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Speaker 3: You know, the autonomous driving piece is taking a lot

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Speaker 3: longer than had been predicted in twenty fifteen, you know,

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Speaker 3: optimistically at scale by maybe twenty thirty. And finally this

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Speaker 3: EV piece, which has done pretty well for Tesla, of late,

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Speaker 3: we've seen sales, the pace of sales growth massively decline

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Speaker 3: and a recalibration from the OEMs on how to do

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Speaker 3: it like you know, actually maybe we should be doing.

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Speaker 1: More hybrid than pure electric.

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Speaker 3: And that's what the big carm makers are pivoting towards now.

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Speaker 3: At the same time, they have missed the boat right

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Speaker 3: for now on AI. It's not too late, it's it's

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Speaker 3: not irreparable. They can catch up, but they are not

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Speaker 3: right anywhere compared to the likes of Google. So it

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Speaker 3: is a pivot that is kind of necessary.

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Speaker 2: It isn't this a bad price because I see the

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Speaker 2: complete destruction of a used Tesla price. Some of that

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Speaker 2: I guess based on elone must desire to move cars.

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Speaker 2: I think I saw yesterday Jeep, which is the cheapest

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Speaker 2: traditional engines. Right, sure they're cutting the price is well,

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Speaker 2: did they do the math and just say that they

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Speaker 2: can't develop the aesthetic the fit in the finish of

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Speaker 2: Apple alex web for one hundred thousand a car or

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Speaker 2: dare I say even higher?

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Speaker 3: It's always been the big question of like where would

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Speaker 3: an Apple car be positioned in the market, Right, Tessa's

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Speaker 3: being came in as a sort of premium vehicle and

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Speaker 3: gradually working down the value channel or you know, the

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Speaker 3: kind of price chain to becoming more affordable. But as

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Speaker 3: you say, they are having to discount massively and have

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Speaker 3: been in the past year or so in order to

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Speaker 3: fill the sort of two million vehicles of capacity that

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Speaker 3: they've constructed over the past few years. If you compare that,

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Speaker 3: if you think about you know, super premium car makers

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Speaker 3: like Ferrari, which you know is valued at seventy one

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Speaker 3: billion euros, it only does six billion euros of sale

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Speaker 3: each year. Sales each year that is, like you know,

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Speaker 3: practically is not quite a rounding error. But I think

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Speaker 3: Apple does three hundred billion, so if you're adding six

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Speaker 3: billion of sales, it is not even worth writing home about.

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Speaker 3: So it's the market big enough for it to be

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Speaker 3: worth Apple's time exactly, big question, particularly if they see

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Speaker 3: themselves as a premium brand.

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Speaker 2: Paul. I think this is the heart of the matter.

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Speaker 2: And Mark German is going to tell me, or Alex

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Speaker 2: Web with their industry leading reporting, is going to tell me.

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Speaker 2: But I get it's all this techno babble and you know,

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Speaker 2: Apple car play and all that. Thank you for being

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Speaker 2: an Apple car player, Paul.

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Speaker 5: This is just about price, a lot of it.

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Speaker 2: You're going to get it out of the Apples showroom.

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Speaker 2: And the answer is the math doesn't.

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Speaker 4: Work, no, I mean, and it doesn't work for Detroit.

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Speaker 4: Is kind of what we're hearing in particularly when you

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Speaker 4: have a price leader like Elon Musk tends to be

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Speaker 4: a little bit I mean, unpredictable.

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Speaker 5: So Alex you know, had.

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Speaker 1: One thing on that. Sure it's at this point as well.

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Speaker 3: It's like a lot of the commentary suggests Apple is

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Speaker 3: going to struggle in the first year to sell meaningful

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Speaker 3: numbers of the headsets, which are three and a half

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Speaker 3: thousand dollars. Right, So if you're covering a vehicle that

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Speaker 3: is one hundred thousand dollars, the lord of small numbers

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Speaker 3: with big number.

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Speaker 2: Give us, give us an update here, Alex. For what

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Speaker 2: one month into this idiocy a success or failure? They headset.

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Speaker 3: But I mean, the thing I'm saying, be saying from

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Speaker 3: day one is it doesn't need to be a success

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Speaker 3: as long as whatever Facebook does is not a success.

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Speaker 1: Right, this is the.

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Speaker 3: First generation they're gonna come to. They're going to make

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Speaker 3: cheaper versions.

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Speaker 7: You know.

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Speaker 3: This is about proving out the technology, getting in the

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Speaker 3: hands of developers so that then they build products for

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Speaker 3: the platform. So it's too early to say Apple's push

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Speaker 3: into this space as a success or a failure. The

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Speaker 3: key thing is, as long as this market does not

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Speaker 3: take off when someone else owns it, Apple doesn't need

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Speaker 3: it to be a huge success, Alex.

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Speaker 4: A lot of the Apple bulls are telling me, don't

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Speaker 4: worry about AI apples. You know, they're not first to

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Speaker 4: the to the game, but they come in when it's

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Speaker 4: an opportune time to come in.

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Speaker 5: Even with phone telephones.

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Speaker 4: Back in the day cell phones, they weren't the first

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Speaker 4: Is that a valid argument for AI or is there

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Speaker 4: a material risk that they're late, maybe too late?

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Speaker 3: No, I think there's there's certainly personance to that. We're

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Speaker 3: very early in this sort of AI revolutional I'm increasing

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Speaker 3: think of it's more a heat solution. They have not

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Speaker 3: completely completely missed out on this, but they do still

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Speaker 3: need to get moving right. They still do still need

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Speaker 3: to get at to that table. Of course, the advantage

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Speaker 3: they have is you can still access a lot of

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Speaker 3: the AI products through there through their platform. Right, Chat

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Speaker 3: GPT is an app Open Open AI hasn't a chat

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Speaker 3: GPT app that I have on my iPhone, So like

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Speaker 3: on that basis, it's kind of okay, we're not yet

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Speaker 3: seeing and.

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Speaker 1: It will struggle to see.

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Speaker 3: I personally struggle to see how it will work that

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Speaker 3: you will have fully AI voice assistance like Google Assistant

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Speaker 3: or Alexa.

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Speaker 1: We're not seeing those come out just yet.

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Speaker 3: Like, I think they've got a little bit of time

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Speaker 3: until the costs come down and the processing power for

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Speaker 3: that to be a real threat to else.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much in London. This is the most

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Speaker 2: important conversation of the day, Bob Michael's with us and

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Speaker 2: then pause. You mentioned when we were chatting before at

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Speaker 2: Banker's Trust, which is iconic years ago and all sorts

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Speaker 2: of work in the United Kingdom and now holding court

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Speaker 2: for mister Diamond. He has to brief James Diamond on

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Speaker 2: what yields are going to do. Imagine that. But I

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Speaker 2: want to talk about you look great today, by the way,

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Speaker 2: and YouTube can you see this? I mean Michael with

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Speaker 2: a bow tie. Thank you, Solid sartorial Solid. I told

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Speaker 2: you you and others made a guest the other day

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Speaker 2: and Paul noted that he had Near East Anthropology as

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Speaker 2: his parchment. BA. Right now, liberal arts and particularly the classics,

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Speaker 2: are getting killed across American universities. Your pen it's truly

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Speaker 2: definitive under classical studies. Defend right now the value you

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Speaker 2: got out of a classical studies education to get you

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Speaker 2: to worry about duration and convexity.

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Speaker 7: So there are many other things you study at university.

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Speaker 7: And I did a lot of sciences, which ultimately helped

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Speaker 7: me with bondmath. But I always thought of classics as

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Speaker 7: my avocation while I was studying other things that I

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Speaker 7: knew would lead to a vocation. And I think if

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Speaker 7: you get that balance, it makes for a far better

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Speaker 7: university life.

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Speaker 2: I totally agree. I'm the strongest point since did you

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Speaker 2: study Latin and Greek? Are you like former Prime Minister Johnson?

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Speaker 2: Where you can waltz right now into Latin or Arma?

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Speaker 7: We're room quake kind of Troy. I quy primus aboris?

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Speaker 2: Can we can we get that tape? Robert Broughton?

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Speaker 7: Can you be sure that we get you?

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Speaker 2: Please?

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Speaker 7: Few few tea pot Thrisimachus. There you go, you learn it,

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Speaker 7: you never forget it.

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Speaker 2: That's great, Paul, can you save the damn interview?

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Speaker 4: I can save it because he also got a CFA

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Speaker 4: that got some to where he is. Hey, so we're

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Speaker 4: in good shape. So Bob, what do we do here?

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Speaker 4: I mean, we're going to get a big inflation print tomorrow.

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Speaker 4: A lot of folks are trying to figure out what

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Speaker 4: this Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 5: Is going to do.

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Speaker 4: It seems like, you know, march off the table. May

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Speaker 4: not sure, maybe push it back to June four A

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Speaker 4: rate cut?

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Speaker 5: How are you guys? A Morgan stantly thinking about this?

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Speaker 7: Honestly, Paul, I just want to enjoy the soft landing. Okay,

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Speaker 7: we're in the midst of it now. We've got very

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Speaker 7: low unemployment. We've got stable inflation. We look at the

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Speaker 7: six month annualized rate of core PC. It's currently one

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Speaker 7: point nine percent. Tomorrow will likely get a point four it.

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Speaker 7: We'll push it up to two point four. It's okay.

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Speaker 7: It's in touching distance of two percent. You go back

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Speaker 7: a few years it was six point six percent. So

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Speaker 7: I think the Fed is right to just pause here.

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Speaker 7: I think if they look at inflation on a shorter

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Speaker 7: term basis, they have to be real happy with it.

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Speaker 7: But they were late to hiking rates thinking inflation would

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Speaker 7: be transitory. They can't make that mistake again. So June

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Speaker 7: still looks like ours and everyone else's central case.

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Speaker 4: All right, I said Morgan Stain. Of course, JP Moore.

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Speaker 4: It's all Morgan's you know, at some point at in time, back.

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Speaker 7: When it probably back in the day when it was so.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you think about this market I'm looking at

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Speaker 4: I end. Go on the Bloomberg terminal, that's the Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: index browser, and you get all the fixed income indexes,

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Speaker 4: most of which Bloomberg owns we're in the red this

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Speaker 4: year twenty twenty two. Is this brutal for the fixed

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Speaker 4: income market? A little bit of performance last year thanks

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Speaker 4: to November and December. Now, where do I go into

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Speaker 4: fixed incomes ses? What are you walking around a trading floor?

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Speaker 4: What are your traders doing?

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Speaker 7: So there are a couple things. And I was out

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Speaker 7: at a dinner last night with about fifty financial advisors

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Speaker 7: and we were talking about this. And my greatest concern

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Speaker 7: is not that the market rallies to one percent. I

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Speaker 7: don't really want that. I'd rather have the market back

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Speaker 7: up to about five percent to give more investors an

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Speaker 7: opportunity to get into the market. And I think you

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Speaker 7: when you well, you look at the amount of money

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Speaker 7: and money market funds, it's five and a half percent.

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Speaker 7: People want to get in. They want a slightly higher yield.

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Speaker 7: You look at pension funds, they they want a slightly

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Speaker 7: higher yield. I look at the aggregate bond indecks. At

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Speaker 7: the end of December thirty one, twenty twenty two, it

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Speaker 7: was four point sixty seven percent, yield four point seven percent,

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Speaker 7: and we were looking at four additional rate hikes at

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Speaker 7: the start of twenty twenty three. This morning five point

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Speaker 7: zero percent, So you're up about thirty basis points and

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Speaker 7: we're looking at three to five rate cuts.

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Speaker 2: This year and Michael Ferral is going to tell you

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Speaker 2: we're a long way from potential GDP and for whatever reason,

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Speaker 2: let's say the stimulus whatever. But I'm just imagining. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I mean the new Park Avenue offices is JP Mortin

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Speaker 2: boy Jamie will have a lunch up in the girders,

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Speaker 2: like it's like you know one of those photos black.

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Speaker 5: Away from inside that goes Bob, come on up with

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Speaker 5: me and sit on.

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Speaker 7: A come in broadcast from there.

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Speaker 2: We'd like to do it, seriously, I'd like to do that.

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Speaker 2: You line up, you and mister Diamond, and the number

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Speaker 2: one question mister Diamond's going to have for yours team

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Speaker 2: is all this cash that's out there, How does Bob

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Speaker 2: Michaels think the deployment of trillions of dollars of cash

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Speaker 2: at the margin will occur?

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Speaker 7: Well, I think it's going to go into a lot

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Speaker 7: of different places. First, I think a lot of it

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Speaker 7: will stay where it is because you get a yield

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Speaker 7: on cash which you didn't get before. And you know

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Speaker 7: the Fed cuts rates a few hundred bag let's say

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Speaker 7: they take it down to three percent, you're still going

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Speaker 7: to get a yield on kash about three percent I

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Speaker 7: think a lot of it's coming into the bond market.

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Speaker 7: Everyone is waiting for the Fed cut rates. That makes

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Speaker 7: cash less attractive. That's where a lot of it goes.

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Speaker 2: Because we're doing almost no FED talk because we're talking

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Speaker 2: in vidio. Bob Michael doesn't know what in vidio is.

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Speaker 2: Let's listen to Chairman Powell.

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Speaker 7: Here, we're room quay kind of troy I que primus aboris.

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Speaker 2: Well, there we go. Bob didn't have his headphones on.

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Speaker 2: We just played Jerome Powell saying some Latin there.

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Speaker 7: Okay, it was almost brief done as well.

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Speaker 2: Did the press conference? Doesn't make any sense sense to you?

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Speaker 2: Or is Jerome Powell speaking Latin?

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Speaker 7: I think they're going in the current. So you go

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Speaker 7: back to December and the infamous pivot with the ten

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Speaker 7: year at about four point two zero percent, it looked

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Speaker 7: like inflation was coming down very rapidly, and that was

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Speaker 7: room for them to start bringing down rates. I think

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Speaker 7: at the recent and upcoming press conferences, inflation is going

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Speaker 7: to be a little bit north of two percent, So

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Speaker 7: you're going to hear them try and dampen the expectation

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Speaker 7: that the FED might step in and march your main.

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Speaker 4: Fixed income currencies, commodities, the thick group. That's kind of

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Speaker 4: where you are. Let's talk about commodities. Is there a

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Speaker 4: commodities play out there?

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Speaker 5: What are we doing?

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Speaker 4: Is a lot of people tell me to just buy

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Speaker 4: gold and sell everything else on the commodity space or bitcoin?

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Speaker 7: Yes, I like that. I think it comes into the

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Speaker 7: greater fit protectorate. Yah. I don't know exactly what it

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Speaker 7: is there.

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Speaker 4: And JP Morgan, I'm not sure you're bosses brought onto

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Speaker 4: this bitcoin thing.

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Speaker 7: Yeah. I think the whole issue with the commodity complex

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Speaker 7: is there was a lot of expectation a year ago

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Speaker 7: about China reopening, and it reopened, but not with the

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Speaker 7: momentum that everyone thought. So suddenly things look a little

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Speaker 7: bit overpriced. You're starting to see that even with energy.

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Speaker 7: You look at what's happened in the Middle East, and

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Speaker 7: you would have thought energy oil would be north of

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Speaker 7: one hundred and it's not. So. I think it's also

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Speaker 7: telling us that the broader global economy is also ratcheting

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Speaker 7: down from where it was. These are all good things

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Speaker 7: for central banks.

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Speaker 2: A couple of days ago, we had a firestorm. This

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Speaker 2: is for global Wall Street, for the CFA, Institute. Good

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Speaker 2: morning Mary down in Charlottesville. And with this is Bob

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Speaker 2: Michael of JP Morgan. He and I have darkened the

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Speaker 2: door of the chartered Financial Analyst program. We both survived.

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Speaker 2: Daniel Perlis was on, Who's got a wonderful book out

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Speaker 2: which basically says, eminem theory doesn't work. Is not Candy,

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Speaker 2: It's not Hershey's. It is Miller and Medigliani, Medigliana and Miller,

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Speaker 2: and it was a theory that came up years ago.

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Speaker 2: I want you to tell me about fancy cfa math

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Speaker 2: in the bond market and in market capitalization against super

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Speaker 2: big tech firms that have three percent debt your world.

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Speaker 2: I'm just baffled by how they have so little debt,

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Speaker 2: in the veracity of what you and I were. Wean

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Speaker 2: done with Merton, Miller and Medigliani.

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Speaker 7: Well, we've been through this before, because there were other

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Speaker 7: companies in other industries that generated a tremendous amount of

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Speaker 7: free cash flow, and the bond market would have liked

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Speaker 7: to have welcomed them with open arms and parked their

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Speaker 7: debt for a long period of time, and they just

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Speaker 7: did in issue a lot. I think of Walmart going

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Speaker 7: back thirty years there were times when people refer to

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Speaker 7: Bristol Meyer's debt as a museum piece because they didn't

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Speaker 7: issue enough. And you know, this is just where we

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Speaker 7: are in the US economy, where the tech industry is

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Speaker 7: the one which is seeing a lot of top line growth,

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Speaker 7: a lot of revenue, a lot of free cash flow,

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Speaker 7: and that's able to sustain their R and D budgets

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Speaker 7: and allow them to do other things.

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Speaker 2: What is the efficacy of a big tech company moving

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Speaker 2: from three percent to a responsible level of debt. I

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Speaker 2: don't know, Paul, eight nine, ten, whatever. What is there

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Speaker 2: a social good to that?

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Speaker 7: There's there's a shareholder good to that, because if they're

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Speaker 7: able to borrow, let's say, in the current market environment,

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Speaker 7: borrow tenure at around five percent and use those proceeds

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Speaker 7: to buy back shares of stock, you would assume the

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Speaker 7: return on equity would be much higher than the five

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Speaker 7: percent that they're borrowing at. And I think you see

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Speaker 7: some of that going on. But you're looking at at

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Speaker 7: just one industry right now that has everything going for it,

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Speaker 7: and rightly so that's the key to efficiency and productivity

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Speaker 7: going forward.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Bob, if I want to take some credit risk here,

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Speaker 4: what do you recommend stay in that investment grade space

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Speaker 4: or do I even go out in some of the

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Speaker 4: high yield because high yield is where the performance has been.

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Speaker 4: Like last year, I was surprised how yield performed as

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Speaker 4: well as it did, because everybody was telling me about

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Speaker 4: a recession, but hi yield really performed.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, and that it's the great question because the difference

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Speaker 7: between owning just investment grade or both investment grade and

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Speaker 7: below investment grade comes down to your call on recession

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Speaker 7: or not. And I would say this time last year,

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Speaker 7: for sure, it looked like we were head into recession.

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Speaker 7: Maybe we did. Maybe the regional banking crisis was a

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Speaker 7: recession and the policy response solved it in a couple

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Speaker 7: of weeks. I don't know, But at the start of

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Speaker 7: this year, there's nothing out there that tells us we're

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Speaker 7: heading into recession. We like credit. We're using every opportunity

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Speaker 7: to buy it, that includes high yield. I know you

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Speaker 7: had a conversation earlier about the private credit market. We

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Speaker 7: look at the private credit market as having absorbed a

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Speaker 7: lot of the marginal borrowers that would have come in

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Speaker 7: the public high yield market previous cycle. So it's there

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Speaker 7: and I think the way we look at private credit

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Speaker 7: is it's effectively re ensuring the public credit markets. So

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Speaker 7: we look at US public high yield. First of all,

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Speaker 7: six percent of it defaulted away in twenty twenty, so

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Speaker 7: you had survivor bias with the remaining ninety four percent.

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Speaker 7: You look at corporate fundamentals, they look very strong. You

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Speaker 7: look at the issuance that would have been marginal. That's

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Speaker 7: in the private credit market. We have to accept that

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Speaker 7: private credit is a new and very powerful source of

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Speaker 7: non bank lending that didn't exist.

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Speaker 5: In case of guys get exposure to that. Do you

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Speaker 5: I mean, what do you guys do?

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Speaker 7: Not putting it in public funds. But I will tell

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Speaker 7: you our clients, whether it's retail or institutional, they're going

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Speaker 7: in full speed ahead. And I know there's a lot

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Speaker 7: of controversy on mark to market, but it really is

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Speaker 7: the equivalent of a bank making a loan, and you know,

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Speaker 7: you roll eighteen months forward. Some of the legacy loans

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Speaker 7: look a look bit stale with current pricing. They'll reset

439
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 7: and then you're going to have some credit issues and

440
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 7: until you work them out, you're going to carry them

441
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 7: as money good unless they're your timeline.

442
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 2: Do you and your team have in your head for

443
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 2: that workout of private credity and the fiction of what

444
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,239
Speaker 2: they're the pricing is, is it? Oh?

445
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 7: I think I think a lot of it's going on now.

446
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,920
Speaker 7: I think that there was a lot of marginal borrowing

447
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 7: over the last couple of years. I think the beauty

448
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 7: of private credit is there's a lot of dry power.

449
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 7: It steps in, it applies a haircut and does a

450
00:22:55,680 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 7: lot of restructuring. But let's not forget private credit. Financial

451
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 7: crisis two thousand and seven was about zero. I'm sure

452
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 7: there was some out there, but it didn't exist. And

453
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 7: now you're talking estimates are one point six trillion, which

454
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 7: is an equal in size to the public highyield markets.

455
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,400
Speaker 7: And whether you quipple or not, about how it's being

456
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 7: deployed and how it's being marked that and some of

457
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 7: its dry power. A lot of that has gone into

458
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 7: the economy. It's gone to places which have hired workers

459
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 7: and created a level of economic activity. And that's probably

460
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 7: another reason that we managed to skate through last year

461
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 7: with pretty good economics.

462
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 2: James Diamond in the news today looking at Texas and

463
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 2: j have you been to the JP Morgan offices in Texas.

464
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 7: I was just in Texas a couple weeks ago. It's

465
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 7: been a big conference.

466
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 2: What's a pixie does to the Texas economy that mister

467
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 2: Diamond is talking about today.

468
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 7: I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess.

469
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 2: There're seeing a lot of conversation ended ugly, but.

470
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 5: I mean it's interesting.

471
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 4: I mean it's we're seeing so many financial services companies,

472
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 4: Tom and other companies including Tesla, relocate to Texas.

473
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 5: For Glown Incorporated.

474
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 7: Do you know what's also missing the cycle? Any problem

475
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 7: in municipalities. Where is a municipality that's under pressure? Where

476
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 7: is the next Puerto Rico? Where is the concern over

477
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:30,439
Speaker 7: Chicago or Illinois or California. It's not there. And we

478
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 7: look at the state rainy day funds and there's still

479
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 7: flush with a lot of cash. Well states that didn't

480
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 7: have any day funds.

481
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 2: The Chancellor today in the United Kingdom saying I'm sorry,

482
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 2: texts revenues are better in the United Kingdom than anybody imagined.

483
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 2: I mean, and again, is this misguess on a slow economy?

484
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 5: And missisas Yeah.

485
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 7: So wonderful muni bonds. I've got to leave muni bonds

486
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 7: talk to financial advisor.

487
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 2: Come back with your muni bond expert. Seriously, I'd love that.

488
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 2: But you know, if you want to drag somebody along

489
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: and you, they can give us the credit on the

490
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 2: Denver airport or something like that. That'd be very good. Boy, Michael,

491
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: this has been wonderful. The low point was a Greek

492
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 2: Latin discussion.

493
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 7: You know you start there. Thanks for having me, it's

494
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 7: a pleasure.

495
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: It was great. We've got this codified forever here without question,

496
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 2: Foreign Affairs and the Console Foreign Relations is leading with

497
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 2: our dialogue on our fractured geopolitical world, all of us,

498
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 2: starting with the stewardship of Richard Hawse, Ambassador. Thank you

499
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 2: in your retirement. I can't believe you're retired for joining

500
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 2: us today. I'm going to start with an open question,

501
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 2: Richard Howson, and this goes back to your wonderful book

502
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 2: The World. Do we have a foreign policy? Does America

503
00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 2: have an identifiable theme, strategy, or plan.

504
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 8: Well, Tom, first of all, it's great to be back

505
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 8: with you. Second, I'm busier than ever, not retired, retired

506
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 8: for old people. Does America have a foreign policy? We

507
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 8: either have none or we have several. Either way, but

508
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 8: what we don't have is a coherent, consistent one that

509
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 8: enjoys broad support. And that's your real problem. If you

510
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 8: want to be a great power, your friends, your allies

511
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 8: need to see you as reliable. We are clearly not

512
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 8: in Your foes need to see you as formidable, and

513
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 8: I think they increasingly have questions. So whatever it is

514
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 8: we have, it's not succeeding.

515
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 2: The color for us and new isolationism. I understand it's

516
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: across a political landscape from mister Trump to mister Biden.

517
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 2: But how do you perceive the ancient American tradition to say,

518
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,919
Speaker 2: we're protected by oceans. We really don't want to play

519
00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,120
Speaker 2: in the international relations game.

520
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 8: Tom, It's an important question. Isolationism is something that never disappears.

521
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 8: It's almost like a gene in the body politic, and

522
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 8: every once in a while it breaks out. I think

523
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 8: now it's three and a half decades after the end

524
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 8: of the Cold War, we're seeing it. It's not evenly

525
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 8: spread across the political spectrum. I think it's largely, not entirely,

526
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 8: but largely now in the province of the Republican Party.

527
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 8: We see it most very really in the House of Representatives.

528
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 8: The more radical Republicans who are obviously hitching their wagon

529
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 8: to Donald Trump. And I think what we're seeing is

530
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 8: a traditional pullback from the world, a sense that we

531
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 8: have to worry more about butter than guns, even though

532
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:50,400
Speaker 8: withdrawal from the world, as we've learned historically, is truly dangerous,

533
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 8: and even though our domestic problems aren't caused by a

534
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 8: lack of spending so much as how we spend our money.

535
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 8: But that said, the resurgence of isolationism is a real threat.

536
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 8: We're seeing it obviously in the case of Ukraine, but

537
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 8: we're seeing it also across the world. I've just come

538
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 8: back from a trip to the Middle East, and I've

539
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 8: got to tell you, our friends look at us there.

540
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 8: I've also recently been in Europe and Asia, and it's

541
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 8: the number one topic on the mind of every American friend,

542
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 8: partner and ally is can we continue to count on you?

543
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 4: So, Richard, let's kind of go to some of the

544
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 4: hotspots around the world here. Let's start with Ukraine here,

545
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 4: because I mean it's front center here in terms of

546
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 4: getting a.

547
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 5: New aid bill for Ukraine.

548
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 4: Can you give us your latest thoughts on kind of

549
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 4: how you think the US position Visa VI Ukraine will

550
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 4: play out over the coming weeks and months.

551
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 8: Look here we are at the beginning of the third

552
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 8: year of this phase of the war. The glass is

553
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 8: half full if you look at how well Ukraine has

554
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 8: done with American and European help. But recent trends of

555
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 8: god to leave people worried. Is Russia's throwing much more

556
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 8: mass at this conflict than Ukraine is now able to

557
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 8: counter with. Give a the falling off of American help,

558
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 8: and I don't have a crystal ball whether ultimately the

559
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 8: Speaker the House or representatives will figure out a way

560
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 8: to provide new military aid to Ukraine. So it's possible

561
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 8: we drift through the election in November without new help,

562
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 8: in which case Ukraine will hang on, but it will

563
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 8: gradually lose some territory. Or there'll be maybe a partial

564
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 8: renewal of American aid, which is my bet. You won't

565
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 8: get the full amount the President wants, but you'll get something.

566
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 8: And again, I think at the end of this year,

567
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 8: the third year of fighting of this phase of the war,

568
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 8: I think you'll have a battlefield that pretty much looks

569
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 8: the way it does now, with Ukraine still in control

570
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 8: of roughly seventy five to eighty percent of its territory,

571
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 8: and then this one way or another, the war will

572
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 8: either continue or we'll see a stage set for some

573
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:49,719
Speaker 8: type of negotiation.

574
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 4: All right, let's switch gears to the Middle East, because, again,

575
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 4: similar to Ukraine, it doesn't seem like there's any near

576
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 4: term resolution here. How do you think the political calculus,

577
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 4: the military calculus stacks up in that part of the world.

578
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 8: Well, you're right, there isn't any near term resolution. At most,

579
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 8: there'll be another temporary cease fire with an agreement to

580
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 8: release some hostages exchange, allow some prisoners to get out

581
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 8: of jail, more aid to get into Gaza. But that's

582
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 8: not to be confused with a strategic and to the

583
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 8: conflict in their camping.

584
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 9: Uh.

585
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 8: This Israeli government is looking at a long term occupation.

586
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 8: There were jects working with the Palestinian authority. Hamas is

587
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 8: obviously unacceptable. So there's no the prerequisites. So stability or

588
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 8: peace are simply not there, no matter how much the

589
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 8: United States might might urge them. There's also the danger

590
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 8: of the war widening. So I think we have to

591
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 8: assume that a turbulent Middle East is the backdrop for

592
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 8: the foreseeable.

593
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 2: Future ambassador host with US Richard Haass with his folks,

594
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 2: can't say enough about his legacy at the Council on

595
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 2: Foreign Relations full closure. I'm remember there and Foreign Affairs

596
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 2: Magazine subscribe, throw to your children and say just shut

597
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 2: up and read one article, pick any article. So, Ambassador,

598
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 2: I did a panel at Davos with Lawrence Freedman of

599
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 2: King's College. Obviously definitive on Warren, particularly with a continental perspective,

600
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 2: and his peace in Foreign Affairs this month is something

601
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 2: I think we're not thinking of, which is instead of

602
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 2: US Congress, maybe Ukraine. Obviously, Lawrence Freedman's thinking about Putin

603
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: and he makes it real sure, real clear. It's a

604
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 2: war Putin still can't win. How close would you suggest

605
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,719
Speaker 2: we are to diplomacy or negotiation with mister Putin?

606
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 8: First all, it's good to see you, quoting Laurence Freaveman.

607
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 8: He and I were students at Oxford together, and over

608
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 8: the last forty fifty years, Laurie's just one of the

609
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 8: most thoughtful people writing about international relations that is out there.

610
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 8: I think Tom, we're not in the realm of negotiations

611
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 8: this year. Everybody Putin wants to see what happens in November.

612
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 8: He's hoping that time is his friend. And I think

613
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 8: the Ukrainians are not yet prepared to enter a negotiation

614
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 8: where they would have to at least temporarily give up

615
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 8: the reality that they're not going to get their territory

616
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 8: back to military force. I think, if you have a situation,

617
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 8: let me just paint it for you. If Joe Biden

618
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 8: gets re elected, if you have a Republican Senate, which

619
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 8: you're almost certain to have, and if the House goes Democratic,

620
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 8: that would be the best outcome for Ukraine. And I

621
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 8: think that would send the signal to putin that time

622
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 8: isn't his friend, and I could see that bringing Russian

623
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 8: to the negotiating negotiating table. On the other hand, if

624
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 8: Donald Trump wins or if the House stays Republican, that

625
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 8: I think that weakens Ukraine. And then the question for

626
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 8: Ukraine is are they prepared to have a negotiation without

627
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 8: a lot of wind in their sales? And that would

628
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 8: be obviously a much more fraud dangerous sort of diplomatic context.

629
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 8: But one way or another, I think we're moving in

630
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 8: the direction of diplomacy. The question is who does.

631
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 2: It favor Ambassador David, and you know out on live chat,

632
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 2: this is on YouTube foks forgetting some really brilliant questions

633
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 2: and David brings it right over to what we're talking about.

634
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 2: Ambassador Wh're saying, Okay, we're watching Ukraine, but so is China.

635
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 2: Does our behavior on the continent of Europe affect The

636
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 2: math that Beijing has is they look at Taipei.

637
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 8: Tom absolutely they see these things may be squares on

638
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 8: the chessboard, but everything we do or don't do sends

639
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 8: a message not simply about our capability, but our willingness

640
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 8: to act. And America's capability is on parallel, but our

641
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 8: will is increasingly questioned. So China is watching what is

642
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 8: going on with the congressional holding up of AID. They're

643
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 8: looking at American political dysfunction and on division. They want

644
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 8: to see what happens in November. So I think this

645
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 8: year twenty twenty four, the Chinese have made the strict

646
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 8: eg determination. They want stability in the US China relationship.

647
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 8: We saw that in November when Hesen Ping and Joe

648
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 8: Biden met. China doesn't want to see new American economic

649
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 8: limits on trade or investment. But depending upon what happens

650
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 8: here in November, when they take their America there, when

651
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 8: they take their look at America's will and to come

652
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 8: to Taiwan's defense, things could change. So I think again

653
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 8: this year things are calm, but China is watching what

654
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 8: happens with Ukraine, watching what happens with our domestic politics,

655
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 8: and I think the most interesting moments will come in

656
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,919
Speaker 8: the aftermath of November, when they basically, you know, their

657
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 8: equivalent of the CIA, draws up their assessments of American

658
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 8: willingness to act on behalf of a trends in Asia.

659
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 4: Doctor Haws, can you give us a sense of the

660
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 4: relative position of mister Putin in Russia with his people

661
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 4: in terms of support? Is it as strong as it

662
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 4: appears to us.

663
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 5: On the outside?

664
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 4: It seems like, boy, this is a tough war, you know,

665
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 4: lots of casualties.

666
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 5: How is his position internally?

667
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 8: You're going to be hearing from Angelas Stent, who's one

668
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 8: of the countries, you know, leading excerpt. But I think

669
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 8: Putin's I think he's very strong, and I think a

670
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 8: lot of the so called Russian experts got it wrong

671
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 8: after the Pregosian challenge. They thought Putin was weak and

672
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 8: on the ropes. I think he largely controls the narrative

673
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 8: inside his country. The murder of Navali, and let's call

674
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 8: it what it is, It was a murder. It just

675
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 8: shows the impunity with which he acts. He's done a

676
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 8: pretty good job at casting this with Russia as victim,

677
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 8: even though Russia is the aggressor. So I think anyone

678
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 8: who's hoping that this war is going to come to

679
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,399
Speaker 8: an end because suddenly there's going to be regime change

680
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 8: in Russia, I think they're kidding themselves.

681
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 2: Ambassador, we need to make some news today, now that

682
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 2: you're completely retired and sliding through the day five days

683
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 2: a week, would you consider public service to America again,

684
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 2: whether it is on Ireland or another matter? Who at

685
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 2: whatever the election outcome is in November, can we see

686
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 2: has in Washington the time.

687
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 8: I'd like to think that one does public service on

688
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 8: the outside, whether it's appearing on shows like yours, or

689
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 8: I do a weekly newsletter called Home and Away, which

690
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 8: people can find on substeck. I think there's lots of

691
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 8: ways to contribute. But sure, Look, I work for four presidents.

692
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 8: I've been honored to do that. I've worked for Democrats,

693
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 8: and Republicans, from Jimmy Carter through George W. Bush and

694
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 8: and even now. I talk regularly to people in the government.

695
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 8: So I'm always looking for a way, as are always

696
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 8: prepared to be to serve this country, particularly now this. Yeah,

697
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 8: this is a truly critical time in our history, both

698
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 8: domestic internationally. This is not a democracy, is not a

699
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 8: spectator sport. This is a time for you know, for

700
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 8: what I would call true patriots. That word is now abused,

701
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 8: but for people who care about this country. It's a

702
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 8: time to get informed, get involved, and of course if

703
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,800
Speaker 8: any you know, if I think I can actually you know, help,

704
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:58,959
Speaker 8: of course of course I would too.

705
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,399
Speaker 2: Back to back really our books the world and also

706
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 2: the Bill of Obligations as well. Richard Hass, thank you

707
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 2: so much, Ambassador Hass retired. I love the guy's working

708
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 2: like a fifteen hour exactly seven days a week. Richard

709
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 2: Hass there, of course, with all of his work with

710
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:30,280
Speaker 2: the Council on Foreign Relations, this is an honor, folks.

711
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 2: The shock of mister Putin and what he did on

712
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 2: February twenty fourth, I had to jumpstart my book of

713
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 2: the summer and it took somewhere in the vicinity of

714
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:47,240
Speaker 2: twelve seconds, Paul to know immediately that Putin's World, Russia

715
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:51,240
Speaker 2: against the West and with the Rest, is the only book.

716
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 2: It is. Angela's Stent on Vladimir Putin, jaw dropping about

717
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,280
Speaker 2: how he got to where he is. We are honored

718
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 2: that from the Brooking Institution, they're non resident senior Fellow.

719
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 2: Angela Stent joins us this morning for an update. Angela,

720
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 2: if you had to redo Putin's World today with a

721
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 2: new prologue or epilogue, what would you write?

722
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 9: Well, I think it reinforces everything that I wrote in

723
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 9: the book. But even when I wrote that book, I

724
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 9: didn't expect a full scale invasion of Ukraine and Putin

725
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 9: just completely turning against the West like that. So I

726
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 9: mean I said in the book that Putin was out

727
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 9: to revise the post Cold War order, that he didn't

728
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 9: accept the collapse of the Soviet Union. But he's done

729
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 9: it much more aggressively and probably sooner than I would

730
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 9: have thought.

731
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 2: And I think of Robert Gates and Condaleza Rice in

732
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 2: Belgrade a long time ago, and there was this hole

733
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 2: back and forth, and it was basically Merscheimer of Chicago

734
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 2: and others with realist politics saying don't push, don't push,

735
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 2: another saying we've got to expand, et cetera. And here

736
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 2: we are doctor Stent with Paul. I still can't believe

737
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 2: I'm saying this. Finland in Sweden, in Nato. Angela state,

738
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 2: how does that change the calculus for Putin's world to

739
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:13,360
Speaker 2: have everything going wrong from Turkey from Istumbul, from Ancora

740
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 2: up to Stockholm and Helsinki.

741
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 9: So obviously this is one of Putin's great achievements, unintended

742
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 9: to have the Baltic Sea now in Nato Lake. But

743
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 9: it's not going to change, you know, his conviction that

744
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 9: the West is against him and that he can outlast

745
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 9: them and in a way out maneuver them. So he's

746
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 9: just doubling down now. I would say that both the

747
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,280
Speaker 9: Russia Ukraine War and the Israel Amas War have actually

748
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:45,919
Speaker 9: given him more influence in what the Russians now called

749
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 9: the world Majority and we call the Global South. So

750
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 9: he's actually gaining adherents there. And Russia is back in

751
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 9: Africa in a way that it has to read since

752
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 9: the Soviet collapse.

753
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 4: Yes, Angela talked to us about kind of what's going

754
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 4: on within Russia. How much support does mister Putin have

755
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:06,280
Speaker 4: among the populast?

756
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 5: Did they not have?

757
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 4: Does he not have the headwinds that maybe we hadn't

758
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 4: passed wars, seeing body bags come home and that type

759
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 4: of thing.

760
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 5: Talk to us about how the populast is feeling.

761
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:16,399
Speaker 7: Yeah, So, the.

762
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:20,959
Speaker 9: Latest opinion polls by the independent polling organization Levadas still

763
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 9: show that Putin has a seventy percent popularity rate, even

764
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 9: though more than fifty percent of the Russians now say

765
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,320
Speaker 9: that they wish the war would and then there should

766
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 9: be negotiations, but they don't want Russian League of Territory out.

767
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 9: So don't forget a lot of those Russians. They they're

768
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 9: not shown on their efficient TV screens the body bags

769
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 9: coming back. People obviously know that in local towns and

770
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 9: villages where they see them coming back. And we have

771
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 9: seen protests by mothers and wives saying, you know, our

772
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 9: men were mobilized in twenty twenty two and they've basically

773
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 9: not come back. Yeah, but in such a repressive society,

774
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 9: and the penalties for express senior opinions are so great,

775
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 9: But that's really dampened popular unrest.

776
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 8: If you like an opposition to this war, Angela.

777
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,719
Speaker 4: So from your perspective, I mean, I guess if we

778
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 4: think back, just look at history, there's no reason to

779
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 4: think that the Russians will grow tired of this. We've

780
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 4: seen in their history how they can take so much

781
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 4: pain for such a long period of time. How do

782
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 4: you think they view a solution here to Ukraine? Is

783
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 4: it absolute victory or can there be something negotiated?

784
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 9: So I think at this point Putin is waiting for

785
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 9: the results of our presidential election in November, hoping that

786
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 9: we'll have a president that will cut all assistance and

787
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:43,319
Speaker 9: support for Ukraine. But I think the way they see

788
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 9: it is they're going to hold out. As you say

789
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 9: that down that many times in history. In the end

790
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 9: the Europeans and the US. The result, well, we can

791
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 9: look what's going on in our own congress. We can't

792
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 9: even appropriate the sixty billion dollars for Ukraine. I think

793
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 9: at the moment, who probably understands that he can't take

794
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 9: the whole of Ukraine, but he could get a settlement.

795
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 9: He could then whether Ukrainians would have to make concessions

796
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 9: on territory, and then the army could regroup. And remember

797
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 9: he told Taker Kossen our goal is the denoxification of Ukraine,

798
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 9: and that means regime change in Ukraine. So in the

799
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 9: long run, that's still what he is.

800
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 2: Aftertone, let me circle back to our conversation with Richard

801
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 2: Haas earlier this morning and to ask you, and this

802
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 2: is playing off of a fabulous foreign affairs article from

803
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 2: a number of months ago where Angel's stent folks looks

804
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 2: at America in the world's middle powers, do you detect

805
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 2: a foreign policy that's coherent in Washington?

806
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 9: Unfortunately, I'm not sure, you know, particularly towards dealing with

807
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 9: these countries in the global South. You know, they are

808
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 9: on the fence about all of this. I think democracy

809
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 9: versus autocracy. Casting it as that is not very helpful

810
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 9: and it hasn't.

811
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 8: Been very productive.

812
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,439
Speaker 9: So I think we really have to impress on these

813
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 9: countries though. What Russia is doing is, you know, a

814
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 9: violation of the un chotter of international law. And if

815
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 9: Russia can get away with it, who knows who might

816
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 9: invade them and get away with it.

817
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 2: Too, Angel, thank you so much. Angels start with us

818
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 2: with Brookings in her fabulous book Putin's World. You do

819
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 2: look at the front pages. Tell me it's not beyond meat.

820
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 10: No, it's not beyond me. No, definitely, but it has

821
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 10: to do with food. So there you go. Americans are

822
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 10: starting to talk more about what they're doing differently, how

823
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 10: they're changing how and what they eat, how they're changing

824
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 10: how they live because of food inflation. So these are

825
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 10: people who responded to a Wall Street Journal article. They're

826
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 10: talking about how they're doing potluck dinners. That's something different.

827
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 10: They're eating rice and beans instead of meat, so they

828
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 10: still get their protein. They're planning meals, they're making spreadsheets

829
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 10: to do this. They're buying more in bulk, so they're

830
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 10: going more costco runs, maybe clipping coupons. They're cooking simpler meals,

831
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 10: so now things like meat loaf and tuna casserole are

832
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 10: coming back again because they're cheaper to make. They're cheaper

833
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 10: and easier to make. There you go. And they're also

834
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 10: doing things which I found industring. They're gardening, they're imposing

835
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 10: limits on eating out, which I know my families do,

836
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 10: and we're cutting back on how much we eat out.

837
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:24,479
Speaker 10: And then they're hunting and fishing for their food. They're

838
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 10: doing that on.

839
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 2: The you know, oh look a squirrel. Okay, Bill, go

840
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 2: get the squirrel Heather log in the Washington Post. They

841
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 2: quote Constant Hunter working with Diane Swank today as well

842
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 2: the headline We've been looking at inflation the wrong way

843
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 2: and John Sylvia x Wells Fargo has been brilliant on this.

844
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 2: And I think you're just dead on Lisa. I mean,

845
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 2: I I take great offense from people looking at Q

846
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: over Q.

847
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, the store brand stuff versus I mean, that's like

848
00:44:57,920 --> 00:44:59,360
Speaker 4: thirty discount.

849
00:44:59,400 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 8: Yes.

850
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,920
Speaker 4: I didn't even think about that until several years ago.

851
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 4: Now it's become much more of a saying so true.

852
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the photo here in the one Sheton

853
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 2: Post and they don't say what the store is. The

854
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 2: store is in Bethesda, Maryland, but I'm looking at the

855
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 2: milk that comes in the door at my house and

856
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 2: I might as well be buying beer. I mean six.

857
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 10: Okay, since we're on the topic of money, did you

858
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 10: know this that having five million is no longer enough

859
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,760
Speaker 10: to crack the top one percent tier in the US.

860
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 10: This is research from Night Frank. It now takes at

861
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 10: least five point eight million to join that richest tier

862
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 10: of Americans, fifteen percent more than it was a year ago.

863
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:45,280
Speaker 10: The top spot for the highest threshold worldwide Monaco twelve

864
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 10: point eight million. Surprise, we have Luxembourg, Switzerland. It takes

865
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:51,319
Speaker 10: about eight million to make the cut there. But they're

866
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 10: just talking about different things in the article, like why

867
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 10: Russia's evasion of Ukraine hurting the economy people when they

868
00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 10: were just starting to recover from the pandemic. That's prices

869
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 10: for energy food surging. So you see that threshold is

870
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 10: starting to take up a bit.

871
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 2: To me, it really talks of the failure of the

872
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 2: American retirement system. Roger Ferguson's let on this TIA. I'm

873
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 2: not sure what the former vice chairman's doing right now,

874
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:19,919
Speaker 2: but this idea that the US government has that five

875
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 2: hundred thousand dollars is a lot of money is just

876
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 2: incredibly wrong. In off the mark about what is comfortable

877
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 2: that you need? I mean, Ken, I mean Ken. The

878
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 2: answer is what you're trying to do, Ken, is to

879
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 2: retire and listen to the sound of the shores. I mean,

880
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 2: you know, there's just no question you want to retire

881
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 2: with excellent waves.

882
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 5: Yep, they were retired.

883
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:53,359
Speaker 10: Okay, I'm distracted, now I can use some of that.

884
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 1: Okay.

885
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 10: Next one is from USA Today, it's a warning actually

886
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 10: for Netflix customers who pay their account through Apple. So apparently, yeah,

887
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 10: they're billing statements the streaming subscription through Apple's iTunes or

888
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 10: app stored. They're no longer going to be an option,

889
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:10,240
Speaker 10: so you have to change it by the next billing

890
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,359
Speaker 10: cycle or you won't be getting Netflix anymore. So it's

891
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 10: it's something that happened back in twenty eighteen from what

892
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 10: I understand, and now what happened is that those people

893
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 10: who were grandfather well now it's their turn, so now

894
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:23,760
Speaker 10: they have to start, you know, switching.

895
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 5: I just I just assumed Netflix is going to charge me.

896
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 5: They're gonna take They're gonna take that.

897
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 10: Not if it's aff they will find you.

898
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 2: A couple of years ago I figured out how I

899
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 2: was playing for three Netflix.

900
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 7: Yeah.

901
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 4: Thanks, I'm thankful with the Netflix for you know, putting

902
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 4: that to bed, because exactly I had like some offspring

903
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 4: on my credit card.

904
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 5: Netflix to care that for me, I still did.

905
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 2: It's just one small account, it's like or whatever.

906
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 10: Now it happened come from from somewhere. I was trying

907
00:47:57,560 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 10: to watch Netflix the other day and it said I

908
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 10: couldn't because I had two many users.

909
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:03,720
Speaker 2: I just resigned up from Major League Baseball to enjoy

910
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,720
Speaker 2: the Red Sox losing. And they raise it five dollars.

911
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:11,799
Speaker 5: Okay, that's the front. Ye raise the fee, sure, and

912
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 5: people will pay. People will pay it.

913
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 2: I'll pay anything. They'll see the Detroit Tigers work fourteen people.

914
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 2: Have you done one? No?

915
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 10: This was a good one.

916
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 3: Oh yeah yeah.

917
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 10: New York Times they say that there's a new trend

918
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 10: on TikTok. It's people posting and asking commenters how old

919
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 10: do you think I am?

920
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 2: This is the new thing? Yeah, thank you.

921
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 10: Apparently it started because it was someone from gen Z

922
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:37,919
Speaker 10: who's at like eleven to twenty six year age who

923
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 10: did it. Because there are studies that show that gen

924
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 10: Z is aging faster than millennials.

925
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:43,359
Speaker 1: So there was this.

926
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:46,760
Speaker 10: Competition back and forth. But people, I mean, you're asking

927
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:47,280
Speaker 10: for trouble.

928
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 5: That's I don't know.

929
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 10: You post it out there and you ask people how

930
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 10: old do you think you are?

931
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:56,640
Speaker 2: I don't know, live chats, how old do you think

932
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 2: I am? What are they say?

933
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 10: Yes, how old do you think I am?

934
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 2: How old do you think I am?

935
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 5: All right?

936
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 10: Put it on the chat, yes, you know.

937
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 5: So that's going.

938
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 2: On one and four Riches right on, Lisa Mateo, that

939
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:20,320
Speaker 2: was very strong. Thank you. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast,

940
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:25,399
Speaker 2: bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

941
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:28,959
Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit

942
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show

943
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 2: weekday mornings from seven to ten a m. Eastern from

944
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 2: our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the

945
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:43,719
Speaker 2: podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and

946
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 2: always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg

947
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:48,880
Speaker 2: Business app.