1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,200 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Mark Moss Show. 2 00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: We're always talking about the decentralized revolution, the way the 3 00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: world is changing as we look at it through the 4 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 1: lens of politics, finance, and technology. Of course, that technology 5 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: is bitcoin, the decentralized technology that is changing the world 6 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: and changing money as we know it. Today I'm joined 7 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: by Sam Callahan again. He's back on the show. He's 8 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 1: the lead market analyst over at Swan Bitcoin and the 9 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:25,799 Speaker 1: host of the Swan Signal. If you're looking for the 10 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: signal through the noise, check out Sam's show Swan Signal. Sam, 11 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: thanks for joining me again today. 12 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 2: Yeah, of course, Mark. Always pleasure to sit down and 13 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 2: talk with you. Yeah. 14 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: Man, we have some good conversations. You know, we swim 15 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,880 Speaker 1: in the same circles, so to speak, in the same 16 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: echo chamber. I guess, as it's called, it's fun hanging 17 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: out in Texas a couple of weeks ago. So you 18 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: put out a tweet the other day, I think talking 19 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: about the American dream being out of reach for so 20 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: many So I want to talk about that, like, what 21 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: does that mean? Let's talk about some of these costs. 22 00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: I actually spent an hour today talking about out the 23 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: reverse crash. So everyone's expecting a crash, like a crash 24 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: in their standard of living. But there's two ways we 25 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: get their inflationary decreased deflationary. So let's talk about that 26 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:12,960 Speaker 1: for a bit, and then let's get into some of 27 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: the ways that we can protect ourselves with inflation, Bitcoin 28 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: being one of those, and we'll talk about some things 29 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: going on in the government, sec regulations, et cetera that 30 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 1: could be affecting that. But let's just start with the 31 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: American dream being out of reach. 32 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 2: Talk to me about that. 33 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of tweeted that that was like a 34 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 3: survey from the Wall Street Journal that made the headlines that, 35 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 3: you know, the lowest percentage of respondents say that the 36 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 3: American dream is achievable now. And it's like, what is 37 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 3: the American dream to me? It's that anybody could come 38 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 3: to this country, no matter their background or socioeconomic status, 39 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 3: and as long as they work hard, they can achieve 40 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 3: their dreams. And right now it seems like people are 41 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 3: working hard, but they're not getting ahead. And so back 42 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 3: in like the seventies, a man could work, earn a 43 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 3: decent wage, afford to own a home. You know, the 44 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 3: white stay at home, they can raise a family. Now 45 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 3: you have dual income households that are increasingly working multiple 46 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 3: jobs and they can't seem to get ahead. And you 47 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 3: have you know, the youth in particular, they're getting priced 48 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:20,639 Speaker 3: out of owning homes. They are putting off major milestones 49 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 3: like raising families, and that has larger implications for society 50 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 3: as a whole. But it's really this idea that the 51 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 3: American dream is being eroded away, and in my opinion, 52 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 3: it's because of reckless monetary and fiscal policies. 53 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: When you say the dream, some people might have a 54 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: dream to be a billionaire, so we have to probably 55 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 1: probably phrase that. But you're just saying, like you could 56 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: get a full time job, like the media maybe will 57 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: qualify or say that the median income in the US 58 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: should be able to afford you like a median lifestyle. 59 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I would say so. 60 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,839 Speaker 3: And the cost of living just continues to rise, specifically 61 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 3: over the last couple of years, and you're really seeing 62 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 3: that in the food prices. And I also quote tweeted 63 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: about this Bloomberg article that really just looked at the 64 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 3: price changes in major things like the electricity build everage, 65 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 3: electricity build in the United States since twenty twenty, or 66 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 3: food prices, or gasoline prices, or health insurance, car insurance, 67 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 3: use cars. You really go across the board and they're 68 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 3: all up twenty thirty, forty percent. And at the same time, 69 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 3: you have the White House going out and saying that 70 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 3: this is the fourth cheapest Thanksgiving ever, and so they're 71 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 3: trying to gaslight us into not believing us. It reminds me 72 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 3: of the George Roil quote that said, like, you know, 73 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 3: when the state says, don't believe your eyes and ears, 74 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 3: that's their last final command. And I'm paraphrasing there, but 75 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 3: that's what it reminds me of, because they're trying to say, like, hey, 76 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 3: you're not feeling this, like this isn't your truly, this 77 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 3: isn't your lived experience that you're experiencing right now. Everything's good, 78 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 3: but really that's not productive at all, and so it's 79 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 3: disingenuous because it's their policies that I think are causing 80 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 3: this rise and cost of living, and a lot of 81 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 3: people are truly suffering out there, and it was never 82 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 3: more inherent to a lot of people. Then holidays like 83 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 3: Thanksgiving where they're going to the grocery store or standing 84 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 3: in line and their draws are their draws are dropping 85 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 3: when they go to the checkout line. So to me, 86 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 3: that's kind of what we're experiencing here, is the fading 87 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 3: American dream where the medium income no longer provides just 88 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 3: like a good healthy, you know, living standards. 89 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, And we've been seeing a lot of videos 90 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: online coming from Canada that it's I mean, it's even 91 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 1: way worse, like as bad as it is in the US, 92 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,359 Speaker 1: Like it's extremely bad in other areas. You know, you 93 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: talked about like some of the younger generation not able 94 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: to live that American dream. I see a lot of 95 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: people pointing to the baby boomers with anger. 96 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 2: They ruined it for everybody. 97 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 1: They mess things up. 98 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 2: I mean, what do you think is behind that? 99 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: Do you think it's the baby boomers or is it 100 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: like the baby boomers that are in government and policy 101 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: they are messing things up? 102 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 2: Well it certainly. 103 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 3: You look at the average age of the elected official 104 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 3: today and they are mostly of the Boomer generation as 105 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 3: well as the silent generation before them, And so I 106 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 3: think that's part of the anger. But I think there's 107 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,559 Speaker 3: a lot of envy as well, because baby boomers really 108 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 3: just grew up in a very opportune time, let's be honest. 109 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 3: I mean, they benefited from interest rates basically dropping for 110 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 3: the last thirty thirty years. They were able to buy homes. 111 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 3: They the American dream was more achievable for them back then. 112 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:21,720 Speaker 3: It's like what I just mentioned, in the seventies and 113 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 3: the eighties, you could afford to buy a house. And 114 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 3: now they've just benefited from the asset price appreciation as 115 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 3: well as the borrowing cost dropping over that time period. 116 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 3: And it's very, very different today. But you know, I'm 117 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 3: kind of hesitant to generalize entire generations. You know, I 118 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,720 Speaker 3: don't think it's one versus the other. I think it's 119 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 3: more like luck of the draw and some of these 120 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 3: policies that were made, some of these policy mistakes that 121 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 3: have compounded over the last couple decades now that the 122 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 3: young generations are paying for it. And so that's kind 123 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 3: of where the anger comes from. I think is just 124 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 3: people look at and say, how did you do this? 125 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:58,799 Speaker 3: Like how did you run this economy into the ground 126 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 3: for us? And so they point to the older generations 127 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 3: and say this is your fault. But again, I don't 128 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 3: really like to generalize entire generations. I don't think that's 129 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 3: really correct. It's more like the elected officials who did 130 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 3: a very very poor job for a long time. 131 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if you think about like I would 132 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 1: say probably more on the elected officials, right becau they're 133 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:19,679 Speaker 1: the ones set the policy. But like to your point, 134 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: when you look back through you know, the stock markets 135 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 1: average six percent or eight percent, Like you can pick 136 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 1: and choose which timeframes you want to measure, but really 137 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 1: it comes down to the luck of the draw because 138 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: we don't know when the FED is going to start 139 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: easing or tightening policy and create these booms and bus 140 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: so you know, potentially, you know, yeah, the baby boomers 141 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:40,280 Speaker 1: have benefited from this easy money policy, lower industrates, et cetera. 142 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: But now they're trying to retire in a time and 143 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 1: live and they're trying to live off their retirement at 144 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: a time where their asset prices are shrinking and their 145 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: cost of living is going up as well. So like 146 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: they're also retiring at a very inopportune time. So it 147 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: just to your point, I think, I agree, it's just 148 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 1: luck of the draw, and you kind of have to 149 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 1: sort of take that out a little bit. 150 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 3: Mark I bring this up all the time too, because 151 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 3: you know, people look at bitcoin like we're both interested 152 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 3: in bitcoin, and they say it's like a young person's asset, right, 153 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 3: you know, they're technologically savvy, and you know this more 154 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 3: is towards the youth, that's kind of geared towards them. 155 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 3: But I look at the older generation and where they're allocated, 156 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 3: and they're mostly allocated in fixed income, and I think 157 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 3: about the more broader macro picture. If we are in 158 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 3: this period of rising inflation, sustain high inflation, and these 159 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 3: older people in retirement are on fixed incomes, you know, 160 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 3: I worry about them, I really do whether they're protected 161 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 3: in that like shifting investment environment, because you know, what 162 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 3: are they going to do when the purchasing power of 163 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 3: their fixed income investments don't keep up with the pace 164 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 3: of inflation. You know, they don't have the time to 165 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 3: make money again, they're not going to go back into 166 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 3: the workforce. And so baby boomers and the older generations 167 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 3: need assets like bitcoin just as much as the youth. 168 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 3: And I think people forget about that. 169 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, No, it's a really good point. I want to 170 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: get back into a little bit sort of this to 171 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: the point becoming more unaffordable, a lot of it being 172 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: driven by policy, and so we're sort of at this 173 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: situation where the Fed has been trying to tighten things again. 174 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: And typically when you go back and look at the 175 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: Fed Funds rate going up and down, they create these 176 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: booms and bust easy money policies great more monetary or 177 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 1: more money, and then things are easy and we have 178 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: these booms and then they restrict it. We've been in 179 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: the fastest rate hiking cycle, you know, sort of in 180 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: history at least for the last five decades, and a 181 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: lot of people were saying, oh, when the Fed Funds 182 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: rate goes up, then stocks have to reprice down lower. 183 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 2: They have to. 184 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: The risk free rate goes up, they have the pe 185 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: ratios have to come down, they have to. Oh, when 186 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: the mortgage rate goes from two percent to eight percent, 187 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 1: home prices have to come down. They just have to. 188 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: But yet neither one of those things have come true. 189 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 1: So they've obviously proven that they don't have to, which 190 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 1: I think is pretty interesting. A lot of people said, oh, 191 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: this year, oh, the last year they've been saying about 192 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: it hasn't happened. We've sort of survived that, and now 193 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 1: we see rate cut that's looking like they're coming next. 194 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 1: So I'm curious what you think about those two things. 195 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 1: I gotta take a very quick break though. If you're 196 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: just tune in, you're listening to the Mark Mass Show 197 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: sit down with Sam Callahan from Swan Bitcoins that lead 198 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 1: market analysts also the host of the Swan Signal show 199 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: over there on YouTube. Check that out and check out 200 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: swan Bitcoin for all your bitcoin needs. Anyway, we'll be 201 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:23,680 Speaker 1: back with more in a minute. Sam will answer that question. 202 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: If you want to know what's coming up next, we'll 203 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: talk about that. So don't go away. 204 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 2: I'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. 205 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: If you're just tune in, you're listening to the Mark 206 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: mass Show sitting down with Sam Calahan, lead market analyst 207 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:36,559 Speaker 1: over at Swan Bitcoin and host of the Swan Signal. So, Sam, 208 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 1: I kind of set that up. We had to take 209 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: a break, but people said they had to home. Prices 210 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: had to come down, slock prices had to come down. 211 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: But yet here we are neither of one. Neither one 212 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 1: of those have been true. Yeah, and here we are 213 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: looks like we're probably done with rate hikes, probably having 214 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: you know, the rates coming back down next year. We're 215 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: seeing a shift in mainstream headlines. Deutsche Bank out and 216 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 1: said the S and P five hundred hit new highs 217 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: next year. And we also know let me just set 218 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,839 Speaker 1: up two other things. We also know that the treasury 219 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 1: needs lowering rates and they need some uh, they need 220 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 1: quantity of reason to come back. We also know the 221 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: political appetite. No incumbent president has ever been elected in 222 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: a recession environment. Oh yeah, And if the Democrats want 223 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: to hold onto power and the treasury needs an easy 224 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: monetary policy, what do you think? 225 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 3: No, I think the fact that it's an election years 226 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 3: is definitely a factor that needs to be considered, especially 227 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 3: when you look at the precarious nature of the fiscal position. 228 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 2: But if we can just go back. 229 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 3: To your first question, you know, are you surprised that, 230 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 3: you know, things have held up given the fastest rate 231 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 3: hike in history? 232 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 2: And I was? 233 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 3: I was, But then you kind of think about it 234 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 3: more and you start to think about how there was 235 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 3: so much you know, low rates for so long, and 236 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 3: these corporations basically binge on it. And same with these 237 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,960 Speaker 3: you know, when rates went down to zero after the pandemic, 238 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 3: you had so many households refinancing their mortgages, and like 239 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 3: ninety percent of them are fixed in the United States, 240 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 3: and so when the federal was there raises interest rates, 241 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 3: I mean, it's not going to affect them. And then 242 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 3: you wonder why housing prices aren't going down. Well, people 243 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 3: aren't moving because they don't want to move and then 244 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 3: take on, you know, a huge mortgage when they're locked 245 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 3: in at like three percent right now, and so you 246 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 3: don't you have like a supply demand issue with the 247 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 3: housing market. That's why you haven't really seen house's prices 248 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 3: housing fall. I think over the last couple you know, 249 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 3: months as many expected, and you have like corporations binged 250 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 3: on this cheap debt as well. If you look at 251 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred debt, fifty percent of 252 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 3: the debt doesn't mature till twenty thirty and you really 253 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 3: don't hit that maturity wall until like twenty twenty five, 254 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 3: twenty twenty six, so they have more runway. They basically 255 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,199 Speaker 3: binged on the cheap debt and so they're not really 256 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 3: impacted by this rise in interest rates yet. And this 257 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 3: is why they say if it's higher for longer, eventually 258 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 3: this is going to hit a wall, and people are 259 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 3: expecting rate cuts. I think the market expects like two 260 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,839 Speaker 3: rate cuts next year. It's like one hundred percent. They 261 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 3: expect it, and a lot of it expects almost four 262 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 3: in the. 263 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 1: Springtal totally in what like one and a half something 264 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 1: like that, one hundred ded basis points. 265 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, yep, exactly, And but you have to think 266 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:19,959 Speaker 3: about what has to happen for them to do that. 267 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 3: People always have to look through this, but things have 268 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 3: to get worse if the Fed's going to start cutting rates. 269 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 3: And so I think you could see a situation where 270 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 3: the unemployment rate really starts to rise, like maybe up 271 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 3: to like four percent. You could start to see corporate 272 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 3: bankruptcies increase substantially, and you start asset prices start to fall. 273 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 3: And Jerome poly he talks like this big game. But 274 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 3: let's see if he talks a big game in that scenario, 275 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 3: because I think what they're going to do is they 276 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 3: are going to cut rates because of these treasury dynamics 277 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 3: that you talked about it being in an election year, 278 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 3: and maybe that's actually what Deutsche Bank is saying, because 279 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 3: if they cut rates and they go back to their 280 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 3: accommodated policies, I think you're going to see the S 281 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 3: and P five hundred, and I think part of the 282 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 3: reason why you saw the SMP five hundred rip this 283 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 3: year is because bonds have been absolutely slaughtered and so 284 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 3: you're seeing, like, where does that money go from fixed 285 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:14,439 Speaker 3: income after it's almost on the third consecutive year negative 286 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 3: returns for the first time in history. Well, it's going 287 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 3: to go to like money market funds, it's going to 288 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 3: go and it's probably gonna go to stocks. And so 289 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 3: I think you saw some flows from fixed income into 290 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 3: the stock market, and I think that's part of the 291 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 3: reason why it surprised people with its performance this year. 292 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:31,319 Speaker 3: But maybe people didn't consider some of these dynamics. 293 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 1: I want to I want to dig into one thing 294 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: that you said there which I liked, and I want 295 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,199 Speaker 1: to see if we can break apart this nuance and 296 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 1: maybe challenge a little bit. So you said typically the 297 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 1: FED would lower rates if things got bad, and so 298 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,199 Speaker 1: a lot of people say, oh, it's when the FED pivots, 299 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 1: then the market crashes. But I think that's sort of 300 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 1: like a lagging effect. The FED typically pivots because things 301 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: are already so bad. It's not that the pivot causes 302 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: the crashes that things are already going into a crash. 303 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: Really pivot too late, right, And so you said typically 304 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 1: when things get really bad, the FED would pivot, you know, 305 00:13:57,960 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: employment has to go up, things like that. And I 306 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 1: think what you said, or at least what I will challenge, 307 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,720 Speaker 1: is maybe they don't have to be that bad for 308 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,440 Speaker 1: the FED to pivot. Maybe it's the treasury needing the 309 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 1: money and the political environment that forces the pivot, not 310 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: the market. 311 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 2: Is that what you were saying, Well, yeah, I mean 312 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 2: it's certainly. 313 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 3: And you look at the interest expense on the debt 314 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 3: right now as the FED keeps interest rates. The government 315 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 3: is one entity that didn't take advantage of the low rates, 316 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 3: like the household in corporations. 317 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 2: And so they. 318 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: Explained that for a second, just so people can understand 319 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: how idiotic that is. 320 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, essentially they borrowed at higher rates and 321 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 3: they I think I forgot the numbers exactly, Mark. I 322 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 3: think like something like fifty percent of the debt they 323 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 3: have to roll over in the next twelve months or 324 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 3: something like that, and so they have to refinance at 325 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 3: much higher interest rates and it's very, very expensive when 326 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 3: the debt gets to these high levels for the government 327 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 3: to have to do this, and so the government. 328 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: But to your point, but to your point, just real quick, 329 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: the locking in, just so people can understand this. You 330 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier when rates went low after twenty twenty, people 331 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: refinance their mortgages down and they locked the bye for 332 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: thirty years. The government had a chance to lock in 333 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 1: debt at thirty years at these lower rates, and they didn't. 334 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 2: No, they actually they issued on the short end. 335 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 3: It's the long end, right, So that's why they have 336 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 3: to refinance now, because they issued debt on the short 337 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 3: end when they should have issued dead on. 338 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: The long end, like all the corporations in the households did. Yeah, 339 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: these corporations in households are smart enough, and the government 340 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 1: somehow didn't understand that. 341 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, And this is actually why you know, Stanley Drugamiller 342 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 3: was saying Janet Yellen should be fired because that was 343 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 3: one of the biggest blunders in Treasury history, is what 344 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 3: he said. Because now we're going to have to face 345 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 3: those refinance costs. And so that's why people say, like 346 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 3: the Treasury and I agree with this, where the Fed 347 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 3: can pretend like they're independent and that they have two 348 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 3: mandates which is you know, full employment and price stability. 349 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 3: But in my opinion, when the Treasury gets in this 350 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 3: position where if rates stay high, it really threatens like 351 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 3: their solvency essentially, and they're going to tap Droom Paul 352 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 3: on the shoulder and be like, look, it's it's cute 353 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 3: and all with your price stability mandates and all, but like, 354 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 3: we seriously need you to cut rates right now, Like 355 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 3: this is becoming a national security issue, Like we need 356 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 3: you to cut rates. And obviously these conversations would happen 357 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 3: behind closed doors and things, but I just think that 358 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 3: there's more important things, and the Fed is eventually going 359 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 3: to have to you know, take away its independence a 360 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 3: little bit and listen to the Treasury. And that's happened 361 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 3: throughout history multiple times, specifically during heightened geopolitical times like 362 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 3: during World War two, and there's during a Vietnam where 363 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 3: the Fed and the Treasury really started to butt heads 364 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 3: about Fed independence, about the interest rates, because once the 365 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 3: deck gets to these levels and once the deficits continue 366 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 3: to rise, suddenly the Treasury is like starting to tell 367 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 3: the Fed what to do. And so I think that's 368 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 3: what we're going to go into in twenty twenty four. 369 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean if the you know, the FED 370 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 1: wants to keep the dollar strong, they don't want to 371 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: lose control over the dollar. But if the US government 372 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: loses its status in the world and potentially a national 373 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,120 Speaker 1: security risk, then the FED doesn't have anything to hang 374 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: on to, right If the government can't stay in power, 375 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 1: then the dollar it really doesn't have anything either. So 376 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: it's like the FED, sure, they want to keep the 377 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 1: dollars strong, but if they don't support the government, they 378 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 1: sort of lose it anyway, to your to your point, right, 379 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 1: so point and to your point as well, history shows 380 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 1: many times that they have kind of lost that independence 381 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 1: and they've they've worked in lockstep. And so when you 382 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: kind of look at that and you look at the 383 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: treasury dysfunction that we had, you know, in the last 384 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:30,640 Speaker 1: couple of auctions, there's just no way that I don't 385 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:32,119 Speaker 1: see anyway. And I hate to say in no way 386 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 1: because just like no way the stocks have to be 387 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 1: repriced they weren't. But it just seems like, how can 388 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 1: the FED continue to tighten How can the Fed continue 389 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: to roll treasuries or sell treasures into the market when 390 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 1: the uh, the FED do that, when the Treasury can't 391 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 1: even get all their treasuries to be purchased like the tread. 392 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,199 Speaker 1: The FED can't continue to put more volume into the 393 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,360 Speaker 1: into the market at the same time. Okay, if you're 394 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 1: just tuning in your thing to the Mark mass Show, 395 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 1: I'm sitting down with Sam Callahan from swam Bitcoin. We'll 396 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 1: be back with that discussion. You don't want to miss 397 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 1: it because we got some points to dig in on. 398 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:03,639 Speaker 1: So don't go away, help you right back, all right, 399 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 1: welcome back. If you just tune in you're listening to 400 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: the Mark Moss Show send down with Sam Callahan from 401 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 1: Swan Bitcoin, host of the Swan Signal over on Bitcoin. 402 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 1: Make sure to check out that show on YouTube. So, Sam, 403 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 1: we were talking about sort of this issue that they have. 404 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:18,439 Speaker 1: I kind of cut you off, so go ahead and 405 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: just keep going. 406 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, what I was going to say is basically, you know, 407 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:25,880 Speaker 3: basically there's no buyer of these treasuries right the FED 408 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 3: is letting their bonds roll off. And I think one 409 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 3: thing that you might see is like a FED pivot. 410 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 3: Like there's so much attention on interest rate policy right now, 411 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 3: and I talked about how it's kind of like this 412 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 3: lever that's not really impacting things immediately on the economy, 413 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 3: And so maybe the FED pivot actually is at the 414 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,920 Speaker 3: balance sheet, Like maybe you should be looking at whether 415 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,719 Speaker 3: they reverse their quantitative tightening and start to expand their 416 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 3: balance sheet more rather than look at interest rate policy, 417 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 3: because there's so much attention on that and their credibility 418 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 3: is so low. If they pivot on rates, it might 419 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 3: be so damning to their reputation right now given the 420 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 3: attention on it, that maybe they'll do something with the 421 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 3: balance sheet instead to try to take pressure off the treasury. 422 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 3: So that's one thing that I'm just looking at, what 423 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 3: are they doing with their balance sheet rather than interest rates. 424 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: That's sort of my base case, and I think maybe 425 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: when I went on your show, I talked about it. 426 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,159 Speaker 1: I don't know. I did a show talking about how 427 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 1: the Fed's interaction in the markets has changed since two 428 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: thousand and eight through today and how they're acting faster. 429 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 1: But then they're setting up all these funding programs. So 430 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: like the banks collapsed in this year of early twenty 431 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 1: twenty three, and they set up that BTFP program within 432 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:39,159 Speaker 1: six days, within six days. When bear Stearns crashed in 433 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, it was like seven months before 434 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: they did something, and they did it within six days. 435 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 1: And so that's the balance sheet expansion, so to speak. Right, 436 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 1: And I think, you know, through twenty twenty twenty, I 437 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 1: think they had set up thirteen funding programs and so, 438 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: like I get it. 439 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 2: Things are bad. I see, huh in like a week 440 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 2: they did that. Yeah, right, right, And. 441 00:19:58,280 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: So I get it, like things are bad. And like 442 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: I seen people saying, well, they didn't, you know, drum 443 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 1: Pile didn't have a long term plan for the BTFP, 444 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: and by March of next year this could all come 445 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: and the whole banking system could collapse. Sure, or they 446 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 1: could just keep it going. But what about the commercial 447 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 1: real estate mortgage's two point nine trillion of those bonds 448 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 1: that are gonna go bad? The bank's gonna collapse, yeah, 449 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: or the FED could just put on their balance sheet. 450 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 1: Oh but what about the stock prices dropping? Well, the 451 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: FED can just buy stocks like they did in twenty twenty. 452 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 2: Like you know what I mean. 453 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 1: Like it's like like we we we think rationally, like 454 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 1: oh my god, like and this is this is my 455 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 1: my thinking. I hate to call these people out. But 456 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 1: Harry Dent, I think his research is right. Uh, you know, 457 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 1: Peter Schiff. Uh, these guys they're they're thinking is right, 458 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,959 Speaker 1: but they're their failure to see the tricks that the 459 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: that the Fed and the Treasury will continue to play. 460 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: And so why don't they just take on, to your point, 461 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 1: the balance sheet, Well, we'll just take on the commercial 462 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 1: real estate. We'll just take on the bank BTFP. What 463 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: we just take all that stuff on and we'll just 464 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 1: stick it over there in a corner. We don't see it. Okay, 465 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 1: So if we have that, and potentially are you starting 466 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 1: to maybe be a little more dubbish maybe on what 467 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: happens next year? This this proverbial soft landing, or let's 468 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: just say we don't have a major massive crash next year. 469 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 1: Is that not your base case anymore? 470 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:16,360 Speaker 2: A little bit? 471 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:18,479 Speaker 3: But you know, I wrote a piece called Prepare for 472 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 3: an inflationary soft landing, and it's more like an emerging 473 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 3: market soft landing, where yeah, you won't have a significant recession, 474 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 3: but you'll be dealing with crazy high deficits, you'll be 475 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 3: dealing with sticky inflation and more kind of like political turmoil. 476 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 3: That's what I expect to happen. And so when you're 477 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 3: running these huge deficits. One thing that's very abnormal is 478 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 3: we're running these big deficits before the recession even hit, 479 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 3: and so that's when keeping the economy afloat. I mean, 480 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,919 Speaker 3: you just saw GDP numbers coming super hot for the 481 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 3: quarter and people were like, where's that coming from? And 482 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 3: I'm like, well, look at the deficit. Look look at 483 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,919 Speaker 3: how much government spending is still happening right now. And 484 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,400 Speaker 3: so I think you should prepare for a situation where 485 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 3: we have a quote unquote sot off landing. But things 486 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,119 Speaker 3: are still feeling really tough for a lot of Americans, 487 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 3: specifically the middle and lower income as inflation remains higher 488 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 3: than you know, historical averages. 489 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's kind of the part. 490 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 1: Like I spent an hour beginning today talking about this, 491 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,399 Speaker 1: the two types of crashes. I call it a reverse crash. 492 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,160 Speaker 1: It's kind of a term that's being thrown around, but 493 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 1: I said, a crash is when you can't afford the 494 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 1: same quality of life, the same standard of living that 495 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 1: you've had. So either your job, you have to lose 496 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: your job, you make it a new low paying job, 497 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:31,400 Speaker 1: you know, or whatever, and you can't afford ther same 498 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 1: quality of life or prices go up too fast and 499 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 1: your rate you're paid and go up. Either way, your 500 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: quality of life goes down. So that the crash is 501 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 1: your quality of life goes down. But it could happen 502 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: in either two ways. I think I don't know about 503 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,399 Speaker 1: next year, but over the next two to three years, 504 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 1: I think it's an inflationary crash that we have. They're 505 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 1: both equally as bad. You know, in Zimbabwe everybody became 506 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:54,879 Speaker 1: a billionaire, but it was three hundred and fifty billion 507 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: for an egg, right, So then, but if we understand 508 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: which type of crash we have, then we can understand 509 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 1: how to prepare. So in a deflationary crash, I guess 510 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 1: you would just close everything out and go go sit 511 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 1: in cash. 512 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 2: But in an. 513 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 1: Inflationary crash, the problem, and that's my base case, The 514 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: problem I think most people are going to have is 515 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 1: how can we be long enough? That's the problem. If 516 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: you look at the S and P five hundred in 517 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: the housing market, it's almost a perfect proxy for the 518 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: monetary expansion that we've seen, so that keeps up with inflation. 519 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 1: But what we'd want to do is be inflation. And 520 00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 1: so I look at things in three ways to do 521 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 1: that one scarce assets, so this would be bitcoin, fine art, collectibles, 522 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,879 Speaker 1: lake front or beachfront property. Then you have like energy 523 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,920 Speaker 1: intensive assets. These might be commodities, gold, oil, things like that, 524 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 1: cattle and so those would help us stay in front 525 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 1: of that. And so I think bitcoin is showing it's 526 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: sort of at the forefront of this. I was surprised 527 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: to see Larry Fink of Blackrocks say that bitcoin people 528 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: are going to bitcoin as a security, a safety quality. 529 00:23:59,680 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 2: Yeah. 530 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,919 Speaker 1: Right, So do you think like bitcoin and scarce assets 531 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 1: are probably the best way to play like an inflationary crash. 532 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,399 Speaker 1: How do you see protecting yourself from that? No? 533 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:08,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I agree with a lot of what 534 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,399 Speaker 3: you said, and with Larry fink comment. I just like 535 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 3: to think about you're saying a flight to quality is bitcoin, Well, 536 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,120 Speaker 3: what are you fleeing from? And I think what you're 537 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:23,160 Speaker 3: fleeing from are financial assets like bonds, like paper bonds, 538 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 3: because right now I looked at a solid chart that 539 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 3: investors are the most overweight bonds they've ever been since 540 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 3: the Global financial crisis, and I think it's because this 541 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,880 Speaker 3: is where people used to go in a recessionary, you know, 542 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,440 Speaker 3: downturn for protection you went to the long end of 543 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 3: the bonds. 544 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 2: It's like a Pavlonian response. 545 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 3: Right now, they go there and then the Fed cuts 546 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 3: rates and everything's great and they offsets the stock market 547 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 3: losses as the bond yields drop. But right now, when 548 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 3: you see bonds and stocks falling together, that happens during 549 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:59,199 Speaker 3: periods of rising inflation historically, and if we are entering that, 550 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,440 Speaker 3: bonds are no longer going to act as that shock 551 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 3: absorber in a portfolio. You're going to want real assets, 552 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 3: like you mentioned. And there's another phenomenal chart that looked 553 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 3: at real assets, the relative price of real asses versus 554 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:16,199 Speaker 3: financial assets, and right now it's at historic lows. And 555 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 3: so these these assets are really under allocated compared to bonds, 556 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,360 Speaker 3: which are over allocated right now. And so if you're 557 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 3: just a contrarian investor, you're thinking, oh, there's an opportunity there, 558 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 3: and you know, the real assets just makes sense in 559 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 3: an inflationary environment. You want to own something that's scarce. 560 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 3: So what you said bitcoin, housing commodities. There's another chart 561 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 3: that like seventy one percent of financial advisors have little 562 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 3: to no exposure to gold, and I just saw that 563 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 3: as a more broader theme of being very under allocated 564 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 3: to real assets, not being prepared for this shifting investing 565 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 3: environment to a more you know, high inflation sustain high 566 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,920 Speaker 3: inflation investing regime which you might be entering, and investors 567 00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 3: have to start thinking about that. 568 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,679 Speaker 1: And we have lots of cases that we can just 569 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 1: look at in current time and pastime. I was talking 570 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 1: about the hyperinflation in Germany. And in Germany when that happened, 571 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: home prices, gold, all the assets went up in value 572 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 1: because they're inflating. Way in Zimbabwe, the stock market went 573 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 1: to all time high. But the problem is if you're 574 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: buying assets that are denominated in the local currency. So 575 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:23,120 Speaker 1: when Germany did finally crash, the stock market crashed with it. 576 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 1: If you were in international, non German mark denominated assets 577 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 1: such as gold, well gold held up the rest of 578 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 1: the world. Germany crashed, but gold still held up globally. 579 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 2: Right, So if you're. 580 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: In US dollar denominated assets like equities or bonds, and 581 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 1: we did have this big inflationary crash and then a 582 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 1: bus like you sort of lose that value. But if 583 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:46,919 Speaker 1: you're in this like global commodity sort of like the 584 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 1: Turkish leras lost ninety five percent to the US dollar 585 00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 1: like over the last five years. So if you would 586 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,719 Speaker 1: have sold your Turkish lira and bought dollars or bitcoin 587 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 1: or gold like, you would have crushed it compared to 588 00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 1: Turkish clera. And so I think it's important to get 589 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: out of those US dollar denominated assets like the bonds 590 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 1: and like the equities into maybe maybe gold is definitely 591 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 1: a contrary And bet today, as we're recording, is a 592 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,359 Speaker 1: big day. We'll see if it can close over two thousand. 593 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 1: I think it's like gonna be the first time it's 594 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 1: closed on a monthly over two thousand. 595 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:15,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's. 596 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 3: Been a tough time breaking that kind of I think 597 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 3: it touched it twice and then dropped underneath it, and. 598 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's that third third times a charm in ta. 599 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,440 Speaker 1: If you're just tuned in, you're listening to the Mark 600 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 1: Moss Show Up Send Down with Sam Callahan from Swan Bitcoin, 601 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,440 Speaker 1: host of the Swan Signal over on YouTube. Check that 602 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 1: show out. We're gonna come back and we're going to 603 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,160 Speaker 1: talk about bitcoin, what he thinks is going to happen, 604 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 1: but also some potential risks that. 605 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 2: You need to be aware of. So don't go away. 606 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 1: We're back, all right, Welcome back. If you just tune in, 607 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,919 Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moss Show sitting down with 608 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 1: Sam Callahan over at Swan Bitcoin, host of the Swan 609 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,400 Speaker 1: Signal over on YouTube. You should definitely check that out. Sam. 610 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: We've kind of set this up, you know. The scarce 611 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 1: resources are scarce assets as a way to beat inflation, 612 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,119 Speaker 1: not just keep up with it like the S and 613 00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,679 Speaker 1: P five hundred and average housing, and just as a 614 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 1: real quick for listeners. Austin, Texas is the fastest growing 615 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 1: real estate market in the United States for the last 616 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 1: twenty years. And Austin was about average or a little 617 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 1: higher than average on home price appreciation, about forty percent 618 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 1: or so. However, in Austin there's a lake called Lake 619 00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 1: Travis and homes on the lake. There's only so many 620 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,879 Speaker 1: homes on the lake. When you have Tesla and Meta 621 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: moved to Austin, and those executives make twenty five million 622 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 1: a year, what do they care if a home is 623 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,159 Speaker 1: one million or two million or three million. 624 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 2: They don't. 625 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 1: And so while Austin as a whole went up by 626 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,400 Speaker 1: forty percent, homes on Lake Travis went up by almost 627 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 1: two hundred percent, and that's the benefit of a scarce asset. 628 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 1: So back to Bitcoin, Sam, I'm curious your take on it. One, 629 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,040 Speaker 1: it seems like for a number of reasons, scarce asset 630 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 1: in this environment. I'm going into the having environment, potential 631 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:57,920 Speaker 1: etf breaks out, breakouts. It seems like Bitcoin has been 632 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 1: off to the races, and it's seems like maybe through 633 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:02,640 Speaker 1: the next year, year and a half it probably will 634 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: continue to do that. However, with a looming macro environment 635 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 1: and the potential crash that a lot of people are 636 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 1: still sort of forecasting. Do you think Bitcoin is this 637 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 1: flight to safety and has sort of escaped, you know, 638 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 1: this escape velocity, so to speak, Or do you think 639 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 1: the global macro picture is really in the driver's seat 640 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 1: and if we get a big crash, maybe that drags 641 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: it down like everything else. 642 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 3: Well, I think we see like a large deflationary crash, 643 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 3: We're going to see Bitcoin drawn down with everything else. 644 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 3: I think that should be expected if that's what happens now. 645 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 3: I think that there is kind of a shift in 646 00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 3: sentiment that's occurring, more awareness around not just bitcoin's value 647 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:45,200 Speaker 3: proposition as an asset that functions outside the traditional banking 648 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,240 Speaker 3: system that doesn't have counterparty risks that is scarce, but 649 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 3: also just more attention to the unsustainable nature of the 650 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 3: fiscal position and the debt. You know, deficits are starting 651 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 3: to matter again and people are looking around for assets, 652 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 3: and really there's we mentioned some of those real assets, 653 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 3: but there's nothing quite like the value proposition of bitcoin 654 00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 3: with its gold like characteristics, as well as the growth 655 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 3: potential of like a venture bet, and so it's really attractive, 656 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 3: and I think you're just seeing more and more people 657 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 3: gain awareness over what this thing is and that it's 658 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,760 Speaker 3: not just this like bubble, that there's real characteristics that 659 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 3: reinforce it's scarcity of twenty one million, and then you 660 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 3: have the absolute scarcity that we talk about a lot, right, 661 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 3: the fact that it doesn't fluctuate with demand, so the 662 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,280 Speaker 3: supply doesn't increase with more demand. Like gold, if gold 663 00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 3: price rises, there's going to be more people mining gold, 664 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 3: and so that doesn't exist with bitcoin, where it's very 665 00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 3: very fixed, and so you can have this example where 666 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 3: you have all this demand come in at the same 667 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 3: time that supply remains really scarce. And even right now, 668 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,480 Speaker 3: you know there's seventy percent of bitcoin that hasn't moved 669 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 3: in one year. You can see that on chain, so 670 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,800 Speaker 3: that's a sign that investors are holding There's only about 671 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 3: one point seven million bitcoin on exchanges right now, and 672 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,200 Speaker 3: then you have that having coming up, which is the 673 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 3: issuance rate getting cut in half. Happens every four years, 674 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,040 Speaker 3: and so as demand seems to be increasing for bitcoin 675 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 3: for the appetite for a digital store value, it seems 676 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 3: to be getting more and more scarce in terms of 677 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:17,320 Speaker 3: the available supply. So that supplying demand dynamics makes me 678 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 3: really bullish on bitcoin, even if there is like a 679 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 3: deflationary crash, because in that environment, I think that the 680 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:28,120 Speaker 3: FED returns to stimulative policies and then it's twenty twenty again, 681 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 3: except bitcoin is going to be off to the races. 682 00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 1: What do you think about the political and regulatory environment 683 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,600 Speaker 1: that's going on right now. So it's like, on one hand, 684 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: we're seeing potentially a number of ETFs get approved. It 685 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,640 Speaker 1: looks like it's pretty certain the betting markets say that 686 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,800 Speaker 1: it's happening at least sometime next year, could be months. 687 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: And when you have Blackrock, which could arguably be called 688 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 1: like an extension arm of the government or the FED, right, 689 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 1: there's been involved many times in doing that. When they're 690 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 1: listening to ETF that sort of means like, hey, like 691 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 1: it ain't going to be illegal, right, Like we have 692 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,120 Speaker 1: a lot of entrenchment in the government, so like, I 693 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,840 Speaker 1: don't see them trying to make bitcoin illegal, but Elizabeth 694 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 1: Warren is like on the war path and trying to 695 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,280 Speaker 1: pass a couple of regulatory bills that would sort of 696 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:14,720 Speaker 1: make it impossible to use by making every single transaction 697 00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,040 Speaker 1: have to capture data aml KYC, etc. 698 00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 2: Things like that. 699 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 1: And I know you're not a political analyst, so maybe 700 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:21,360 Speaker 1: this is a little bit over your head. Feel free 701 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:23,960 Speaker 1: to say you don't know, but I'm just curious. Like, 702 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,880 Speaker 1: she seems pretty hell bent on getting this through. The 703 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,640 Speaker 1: Democrats have the power. Do you see this type of 704 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 1: not just an environment, but if these bills were to 705 00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,600 Speaker 1: go through, do you think that negatively affects the price 706 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:37,120 Speaker 1: of bitcoin? 707 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly. 708 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 3: I mean, like regulatory backlash is certainly a risk that 709 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 3: bitcoin investors have to think about. I mean, we can't 710 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,280 Speaker 3: just ignore some of these developments that are occurring now. 711 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:52,360 Speaker 3: For every anti money laundering act being pushed by Warren, 712 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 3: there's a responsible financial innovation Act from Lummis and Gillibrand, 713 00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,400 Speaker 3: and so I think you have kind of a peding 714 00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:05,240 Speaker 3: facets in Congress. Some are pro bitcoin, some aren't. And 715 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,280 Speaker 3: the regulation with Warren it was ridiculous. I mean basically she, 716 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 3: like you said, every single minor, every secret node would 717 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 3: have to register as a financial institution. I mean, it 718 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 3: just doesn't make sense. They're trying to expand the Bank 719 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 3: Secrecy Act and kind of reduce the privacy of all Americans, 720 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:26,080 Speaker 3: not just with bitcoin technology, that's really like all financial technology. 721 00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 3: They want to stop that. And so I think there 722 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 3: is like this bigger narrative. You know, you had the 723 00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,400 Speaker 3: the Wall Street Journal with the hamas terrorism, and you're 724 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,120 Speaker 3: seeing all these like the Finsend ruling that's trying to 725 00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:41,280 Speaker 3: stop crypto mixers. You're seeing really this fight against privacy 726 00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 3: and cybercrime. And so I think there is this bigger 727 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:49,080 Speaker 3: narrative that trying to paint bitcoin as a facilitator of 728 00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,600 Speaker 3: quote unquote cyber crime. I think that's what we had 729 00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 3: to look out for in terms of like this bigger battle. 730 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,280 Speaker 3: But certainly, you know, I think there's competing facets in Congress, 731 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 3: and there's different legislations. Some are good, some are bad. 732 00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 3: Right now, I just don't think Congress can get anything through. 733 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,440 Speaker 3: So we got that going for us, But you know, 734 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,440 Speaker 3: I just wish it, you know, I hope all of 735 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 3: that kind of survives this administration, because they've been extremely hostile, 736 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:19,040 Speaker 3: I would say, But I'm not really worried about it 737 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:20,600 Speaker 3: because I don't think they're going to be able to 738 00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:21,720 Speaker 3: get anything through Congress. 739 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:26,160 Speaker 1: But as an analyst, you think that, you know, as 740 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:29,040 Speaker 1: an analyst looking at bitcoin and then talking to people 741 00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,480 Speaker 1: have potentially behind it and investing into it or whatever. 742 00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 1: I don't like to think of it as investing. I 743 00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,360 Speaker 1: think of it as savings. I save my money in bitcoin. 744 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 1: I don't invest into it, but I'm just curious. So 745 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 1: typically you would think about, as we already talked about 746 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,919 Speaker 1: the macro environment. You know, will there be an easy 747 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,320 Speaker 1: monetary policy, tighten monetary policy seems to be sort of 748 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 1: the driver's seed. Obviously supply demand, it will there be 749 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,920 Speaker 1: continued demand the supply constraints. We know about that, But 750 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,839 Speaker 1: unlike other assets like gold or other commodities, et cetera, 751 00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 1: we also probably have to look at the regulatory environment 752 00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:57,959 Speaker 1: as well. 753 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I think, you know, some of the the 754 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:04,399 Speaker 3: developments kind of cleaning up the broader crypto industry can 755 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,280 Speaker 3: be seen as a positive. I think it has clearly 756 00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,080 Speaker 3: allowed Bitcoin to separate itself and more and more people 757 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,480 Speaker 3: understand why Bitcoin is unique compared to these other more 758 00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:18,040 Speaker 3: centralized cryptocurrencies, and there's less conflation happening anymore. And I 759 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,520 Speaker 3: think that's notable when you do have Larry Think specifically, 760 00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:22,400 Speaker 3: you know, talking about. 761 00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,239 Speaker 1: Tell me about the difference of the conflation. We got 762 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,359 Speaker 1: about a minute and a half. What do you see 763 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 1: as the difference is that's really being highlighted through this 764 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:29,719 Speaker 1: type of regulatory action. 765 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,280 Speaker 3: Well, you know, with bitcoin, there's no founding team to subpoena. 766 00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:37,880 Speaker 3: It's actually decentralized, which allows it to have scarcity in 767 00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:41,440 Speaker 3: the twenty one million in the security where these centralized 768 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,480 Speaker 3: coins that really look like unregistered securities, and that's kind 769 00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 3: of what the secs and is saying in all those 770 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,160 Speaker 3: complaints they're naming specific coins. You know, that's the main 771 00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:56,440 Speaker 3: difference here is that there's no manipulation or control. Nobody's 772 00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 3: able to do that in bitcoin, whereas in decentralized coins 773 00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,720 Speaker 3: like or file coin or any of these other ones 774 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,480 Speaker 3: that have been named in these complaints. They argue that 775 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,440 Speaker 3: they can't be manipulated and they can't be controlled by 776 00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:13,279 Speaker 3: a centralized team, and they're more and more like unregistered securities. 777 00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,399 Speaker 3: And so that's separation, I think is a really good 778 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:18,240 Speaker 3: thing for bitcoin long term. 779 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, so a lot of things to watch out for. 780 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,359 Speaker 1: I think it depends on what time frame you're looking over. 781 00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,200 Speaker 1: You know, I've spoken a lot of financial conferences, I've 782 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,440 Speaker 1: listened to a lot, and I always want to just 783 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,439 Speaker 1: tell people they need to clarify that over what time frame? 784 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:35,520 Speaker 1: So potentially we could have a very harsh, authoritarian sort 785 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,880 Speaker 1: of regulatory environment in bitcoin. But does that mean it 786 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,840 Speaker 1: kills it. Absolutely not. It might only make it stronger. 787 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,400 Speaker 1: It might make it happen a little slower, and so, like, 788 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:48,080 Speaker 1: over what time frame I think is an important absolutely 789 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,239 Speaker 1: question to ask. If you're just tuning in, you've been 790 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 1: listening to the Mark Mas Show sitting down with Sam 791 00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,000 Speaker 1: Calahn of Swan Bitcoin, hopefully enjoyed that. Let me know, 792 00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,120 Speaker 1: rate this and review it on your favorite podcast player. 793 00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,440 Speaker 1: I would be greatly appreciate if you do that, And 794 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:02,960 Speaker 1: that's what I got. Thanks so much for listening