WEBVTT - How We're Getting The Vaccine To Our Patients: Heal's Dua 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.160 --> 0:00:06.240 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.560 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.480 and on Bloomberg dot com. Dr do A Dr Rene 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.119 do A is founder and chief medical officer of a 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:26.880 company called Hell h e a L. It provides on 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:31.480 demand telemedicine as well as some in home dr house calls, 0:00:31.520 --> 0:00:34.479 and Dr do A joins US Now. Dr do A, 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:38.839 how will your company and companies like a deal with 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:41.800 the distribution of the vaccine? Do you have orders in? 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:44.280 Do you expect to be contacted? How does it all 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:47.920 work so so far? Thanks first of all for having 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:50.720 me on this show. Uh, first of all, it's it's 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:53.240 kind of been an interesting roll out. You know, about 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:57.200 a week ago, I was concerned that the logistics and 0:00:57.320 --> 0:00:59.680 the routing of getting this vaccine around we're going to 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:02.480 be there very difficult. It seems that piece by piece 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.600 these items are falling into place. I was asked to 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:09.840 fill out some paperwork on the CDCs website to apply 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:14.400 for not just my medical teams, but also our patients 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:18.720 that we serve um to to to try to acquire 0:01:19.080 --> 0:01:22.200 enough vaccine for those those members of the team in 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:24.880 each and every one of our markets. I'm waiting to 0:01:24.959 --> 0:01:28.400 hear back, but I've been consistently following up as well 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:31.760 to see what's going on. I've also been seeing that 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:36.000 the hospitals on which I'm on staff are trying as 0:01:36.040 --> 0:01:38.160 well to have a rollout process, and there have been 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:42.679 glitches with accessibility to you know, sign up forms and 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:46.240 email addresses and so that that's also been a very 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:50.320 interesting perspective as well. It's, of course, as expected, rushed, 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:54.600 but certainly hopefully will happen this month. So DR do 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:57.280 you know, it seems like what we're hearing in terms 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:02.360 of the rollout is healthcare workers, folks in our retirement 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:05.040 homes and so on, to get getting to those critical 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:08.920 populations initially and then out to the broader populations over time. 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:12.720 What is your best guess as to when the average 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:18.000 American out there will have access uh to this vaccine. 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:22.440 So the goal is to have a hundred million people 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:27.239 vaccinated in the first part of so I think that 0:02:27.400 --> 0:02:32.440 by the end of summer, the average person will be vaccinated. Now, 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:36.840 keep in mind this vaccine is for those folks sixteen 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:40.560 and up, so we still have work to do for children. 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.560 Is it fine to let children be are among the 0:02:46.600 --> 0:02:49.760 last to get this vaccine or should they be earlier? 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:55.680 I think with children we see a very interesting infectivity. 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:58.400 So you've of course read in the news and seen 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:01.560 in the news that children have died because of COVID. 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:06.320 They've certainly been infected, they're certainly carrying and transmitting. But 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:10.079 I think what we've also seen is the population suffering 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:14.120 the most are those that are elderly and immuno compromised. 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:18.240 And of course my colleagues on front lines are being exposed, 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:21.000 um in their efforts to keep people safe. So I 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:26.360 would say those are definitely the right priorities. So Dr Derot, 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:29.679 you know, in this country at least, uh, there is 0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:32.640 a sizeable percentage of the population that just doesn't feel 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:36.680 comfortable with the old concept of receiving vaccines for you know, 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:40.160 the measles amongst and other things. Um, how do we 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:45.000 as a society, you know, get those people to accept 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:49.440 this vaccine and take this vaccine. It's such a challenging question. 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:52.760 We we deal with it in the routine vaccines such 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.840 as MMR as you described. And so this concept of 0:03:56.920 --> 0:04:01.480 herd immunity, where enough people are vaccinated so that as 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:05.160 a population we are all protected, is the most critical 0:04:05.200 --> 0:04:09.040 piece to our survivability. The amount of lives we have 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:13.360 lost with COVID is tragic, is an understatement, right, So 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:16.640 we all have to do our part, and even while 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:20.560 we are being vaccinated piece by piece, you know, population 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:25.680 type by population type, until we are all vaccinated effectively, 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:28.800 we won't have herd immunity, which means we do need 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:32.520 to wear masks, we do need to uh physically separate, 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:35.800 and these measures will go on and on until we 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:40.600 are safe literally from each other. At this point, Dr Dooan, 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:43.520 would you feel comfortable if you had vaccine going out 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:45.839 in company or would you still be worried that you 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:49.400 might be able to pass it on? So I I 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:52.040 plan if if I am able to get the vaccine, 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:55.680 I plan to take the vaccine. I plan to vaccinate 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:59.599 all of our medical teams and immunocompromised and elderly patients, 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:02.200 and I will hope that as doing in doing so, 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:05.840 we are doing our part to protect our communities, and 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:09.120 that's exactly our plan forward. Sorry, should be a little 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:11.480 more clear. What I meant was, would you be worried 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:17.960 that you could still be passing on the virus? Well, well, 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:21.680 so there are two vaccines that are required. The first 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:26.320 dose is reportedly effective, but you want a second dose. 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:31.560 But yes, I would continue to physically separate and wear 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:35.720 a mask. Not so much because I am worried about 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:39.360 me transmitting though of course every vaccine takes time, as 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:42.320 you know, to ramp up and build the immunity, but 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:46.800 additionally because others around me are not yet vaccinated, and 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:50.720 if I am carrying during that period of of immunity building, 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:53.800 I don't want to infect them. Dr Rene Do, thank 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.839 you so much. We really appreciate your thoughts and your expertise. 0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:59.880 Dr Rene Do a founder and chief medical officer of 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:02.760 Hell joining us on the phone from Los Angeles, giving 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:06.160 us the latest on these vaccines which are just beginning 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:09.000 to roll out across the US. We're waiting for modarren 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:12.039 and later this week to receive it's FDA approval UH 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:15.359 and that can join the Visor vaccine in the marketplace. 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:20.400 As we build this vaccination population well, we got some 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:24.640 weaker than expected retail sales this morning, suggesting once again 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:27.600 that there is a lot of stress in the economy, 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:30.120 particularly with the consumer of the question is what can 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:32.640 the folks in Congress do? What can the Federal Reserve? 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:36.239 Dude kind of ease the pain. Danielle di Martino Booth 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:40.120 CEO and Director of Intelligence at Quill Intelligence, also a 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:44.680 former advisor at the Dallas Federal Reserve, any Bloomberg opinion contributor. 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:47.760 Also she's the author of a book entitled fed Up, 0:06:47.920 --> 0:06:51.040 an insiders take on why the Federal Reserve is bad 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:54.039 for America? What do you expect, Danielle, thank you so 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:56.120 much for joining us. What do you expect this Federal 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:59.400 Reserve which is bad for America? As per your book? 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:01.600 What do you expect to hear from the Fed chairman 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:05.800 of this afternoon? Well, it'll be interesting to see what 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:08.280 he has to say. I think he's finally going to 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:11.679 get the stimulus that he wants. I I I suspect 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:14.280 that it's not near the price tag that he was 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:17.400 hoping for. Uh. You know that the Fed wants to 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:23.280 commit to capping longer maturity treasury yield, and it wants 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:26.640 to buy longer maturity treasuries to hold those prices down, 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:29.720 but those those yields won't seem to come up enough 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:33.400 for them to to launch yield curve control um. So 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:36.280 Bloomberg's I I Red Jersey did some fantastic work. I 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:39.400 hope everybody thought on what some of the possibilities would 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:41.840 be in terms of just the numb the amount of 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:44.240 bonds that that the FED can buy if they were to, 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:46.760 if they were to buy the entire Tips market, which 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:48.600 would be crazy, it would destroy the structure of the 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:51.680 kIPS market. There's nearly seven hundred billion more that they 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:53.920 could buy there. You know that that would continue to 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:56.520 pump up the inflation narrative. Or they could go from 0:07:56.760 --> 0:07:59.360 you know the seven to twenty area on the yield 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:02.520 curve in terms of treasury maturities, and that there's another 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:06.080 seven hundred billions they can buy there. But again, I 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.440 think what the Fed wants more than anything else, And 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:10.520 we'll be looking to Janet yell and to see if 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:14.200 she doesn't push this is is the supply of longer 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:18.800 maturity treasuries itself to increase because those buckets are relatively small. 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:23.120 What happens if we get stimulus, but it's nine billion 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:27.560 or below, so less than the you know, the trillions 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:30.920 that Democrats wanted, but also you know, not enough for 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:35.280 states to to get some of the pie. Well, and 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:37.960 I think I think you hit the nail on the head. 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:41.079 They're vunny because you've seen all of these job cut 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:44.400 announcement announcements come out of whether it's Washington, d C. 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:48.800 Or San Francisco or New York around their transportation authorities. Uh. 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:51.040 And that's just going to make a bad problem worse 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:52.800 if you think about it, because so many of the 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:56.280 lower income workers who can't work from home are going 0:08:56.320 --> 0:08:59.960 to have the means by which they transport themselves to work, 0:09:00.600 --> 0:09:03.520 uh cut that much more. So. You know, the Republicans 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:06.880 have been very articulate in saying this is not a 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:10.800 stimulus package. We anticipate that the economy is going to 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:15.880 accelerate because of the vaccine being distributed throughout throughout the country. 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:19.200 So this is not stimulus, this is just pure relief. Well, 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:22.800 you know, this is also a foot race between now 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:26.319 and then and the damage that's going to be inflicted 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:30.160 on the economy because of this spike in hospitalizations and fatality. 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:35.480 The question becomes one of is their stimulus necessary the 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:38.520 minute Joe Biden takes office. Yeah, that's kind of where 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:40.800 I wanted to go, Danielle. What do you think it's 0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:42.920 got to be presumably on the top of us to 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:46.240 do to do list for those first one days. What 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.200 do we know about Joe Biden his administration kind of 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:53.240 what they're thinking about in terms of fiscal stimulus. Well, 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:56.920 I certainly think that they would be huge advocates for 0:09:57.000 --> 0:10:00.840 getting as much aid to states and locality as possible. 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:04.880 And you know, if I'm an a Biden administration, it's 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:07.800 difficult to do any planning, just as if just as 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:10.800 it's difficult for most of us to plan out whether 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:13.360 or not inflation or is coming or not because of 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:17.400 these two senatorial runoff elections in Georgia. And that's how 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:20.480 critical they've become. They will be the determinant of the 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:24.320 size of the next stimulus package and it's composition and 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:30.000 how aggressive it can be. Yeah, it's a it's it's 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:32.280 going to be a difficult winter, Danniel. What do you 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:34.520 think is priced into this market given that we've only 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:40.000 gone up or sideways, we've barely gone down since mart Well, 0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:43.280 I think the market is is certainly pricing in a 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:48.440 best case scenario in terms of the the economy being 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:52.320 fully reopened by the time spring rolls around. That is 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:56.600 where I feel these markets are priced. For a friend 0:10:56.600 --> 0:11:00.160 of mine, PHILLIPA Done, did some fabulous work looking at 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:03.760 the Schiller Cape price to earnings, the longer term price 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:08.000 to earnings ratio on the SMP back and right now 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:12.440 stocks are trading in the percentile historically. So you know, 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:14.800 I have to say that that that the stock market 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:18.400 right now is priced such that we are a fully 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:23.840 open economy in the headed into Q two. Um Daniel, 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:28.520 what do you think of Janet Yellen as a Secretary Treasury. Well, 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:32.079 you know, I've been openly critical of Janet Yellen because 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:37.240 in in higher testimonies, in statement she has she has 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:40.200 spoken to the fact that she didn't really understand the 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:44.000 makeup the structure of the financial system and did not 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:47.560 see the crisis coming as we were headed into the 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:51.360 last crisis. Uh. You know, she's a labor economist by training, 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:55.600 and I have my I have my my doubts as 0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:59.480 to whether when the repo overnight repo crisis cropped up 0:11:59.840 --> 0:12:01.679 at the end of last year when that was what 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:05.199 we were talking about. I don't know how well equipped 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:09.679 she is because of her background and I should say 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:12.400 lack of background in the financial markets in being able 0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:15.320 to tackle something like that, especially because you have another 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:18.800 pure academic running the New York Fed, John Williams. So 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:22.560 I think somebody who was savvier to the structure of 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.720 the markets, the plumbing of the financial system which we've 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:28.720 we've discovered is so critical to the execution of quantitative 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:32.520 easing or quantitative tightening and the ability for the normalized 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:35.480 monetary policy. I would have preferred to have seen somebody 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:38.720 who was much more familiar with the makeup of the markets. 0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:42.679 But of course my opinion doesn't count because most of 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.400 most of the political world knows that she will be 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:49.280 able to cross that aisle. Well, there's also Chris Waller, 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:52.319 who has not gotten through sanergy yet. So this particular 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:55.400 meeting goes ahead without two governors as a vacancy to 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:58.520 and Chris Waller, and uh, well see if that gets 0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:02.200 resolved as well next year. Um, Danielle, I presume you 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:04.040 know a FED without all of its governors is not 0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:08.040 a fully functioning FED either. Well, you do want to 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:13.200 have all of the voices around that table. I would say, Vannie, though, 0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:16.800 that the leadership structure, those at the very top of 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:19.960 the FED right now are extremely familiar with one another, 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:24.840 so I wouldn't I'm not too I'm not too particularly 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:27.080 worried about that. One thing I would watch out for 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:31.240 with today's meeting, in particular, is that we forget the 0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.080 last time that FED had Quie running, that they put 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:37.680 unemployment rate targets out there, and they had to continuously 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.480 move the goal post down further and further because they 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:43.760 realized the markets could not be weaned off of que. 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:47.319 In fact, at the time, J Powell himself said that 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:49.959 Quie had become habits forming to to the market. I 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:52.280 wouldn't be surprised if they tried to put another target 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:54.800 out there, like the unemployment rate today that we that 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:58.079 we didn't see some dissenting voices there on that committee. 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:02.400 Danielle's thank you for that. Always some sobering advice there 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:05.520 from daniel D. Martino, Booth CEO and Director of Intelligence 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:11.600 at Quill Intelligence, coming to us from Dallas, Texas. Well, 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.200 we've been talking about the consumer whole year, really, but 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.640 this morning we got retail sales data that we're a 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:21.840 little bit less positive than we were anticipating so advanced 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.080 month of a month, they were down one point one percent. 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.120 Economists were looking for them to be just down point 0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:28.680 three percent. The control group was down a half a percent. 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:31.800 Economist were looking for that to be positive. Let's bring 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:36.760 in somebody who handles consumers money their cash, and through 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:40.280 his bank allows them to keep that cash on deposit 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.960 if they wish. Brendan Coughland is head of consumer banking 0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:45.840 at Citizens Bank, and he's coming to us from Providence, 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:48.880 Rhode Island today. So, Brendan, what have you seen with 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.400 the amount of savings in your bank right now and 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:56.000 whether it's increasing or decreasing. Yeah, we've seen very healthy 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:59.360 savings by the consumer. Uh. We're certainly not out of 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:02.280 the woods yet with the economy, and Q one is 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.600 certainly going to be a bit rough until the economy 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:09.400 fully reopens. But the consumer has been very resilient through 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.520 all this. In fact, much better than expected. Savings are 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:16.320 really piling up through stimulus and with the economy shutting 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.240 down in general, spending as you as you teased, and 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.880 the open has been a little off. Having said that, 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:25.640 what we're seeing is a real recovery on both credit 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:29.240 card spending and debit cards spending. So debit cards spending 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.760 is actually up about fifteen percent right now year or 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:35.760 a year on a dollar basis, and flatish on units. 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.200 So customers aren't going to the grocery store two times 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.880 a week, they're consolidating that into one one trip, and 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.320 they're spending a little bit more. And credit cards have 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:46.800 actually come all the way back up to slightly positive 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:50.040 year over year, So we're seeing consumer confidence come back 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:52.640 a little bit in their behaviors around spending, which is 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:55.120 certainly a good sign. Brendon, what are you seeing in 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:58.920 terms of credit quality out there right now? Yeah, I 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:02.240 have been, isn't lea surprised non credit quality And as 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:04.680 I said a second ago, we're certainly not out of 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:09.080 the woods yet, but we um we do have very 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:12.280 positive indicators on a relative basis on credit. So at 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:16.200 its worst, we had eight percent of our portfolio in forbearance, 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:19.120 which means uh, the customers taking a break from making 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.680 their payments. That has geared down to about one point 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:26.200 five percent, so the vast majority of customers have left 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.880 forbearance status. At the same time, our delinquency rates have 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.880 actually gone down, not up, and so as these customers 0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:36.280 have migrated back into repayment, the vast, vast majority are 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.680 landing on their feet, which is a very very good fine. 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:42.280 So the remainder of customers are going to transition off 0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:45.560 through December and into January. So we'll have to help 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:48.640 them make sure the remainder land on their feet. And certainly, uh, 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:51.640 some of the stimulus talks out there could really help 0:16:52.000 --> 0:16:55.240 make sure that's the case. What kind of loans are 0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:58.560 being asked for brendon Our companies that are looking for 0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:01.880 you know, fresh or extend the lines of credits, still 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:04.399 doing that, or you know, have they decided to just 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:09.520 close their business and mortgages. Yeah, so um um. On 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.240 the commercial side of the bank and with our small businesses, 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.120 certainly we saw a lot of them draw down at 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:18.119 the height of the anxiety in April and May a 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:20.479 lot of that has gone back away. Liquidity is very 0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:23.280 strong with our businesses, both in the mid corporate and 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:26.480 small business space. Um so that's kind of coming back 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:30.960 to normal. We on the consumer side, we've seen actually 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:34.600 pretty significant loan demand this year, and it's really led 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:37.960 by two spots. Of course, mortgage is booming. We're having 0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:41.720 a stellar year in UH in mortgages. The market could 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:45.119 hit four trillion this year in mortgage originations, which is 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:48.760 incredibly high, probably the largest year on record for mortgage 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:52.400 originations just given the speed of rate drop that happened. 0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:55.720 And citizens is doing quite well UM in in the 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:59.159 mortgage space taking market share. We're we we will potentially 0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:02.600 get close to fifth billion in mortgage originations UH this year, 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:04.760 so very very strong year. The other product that has 0:18:04.800 --> 0:18:08.080 stimulated a ton of demand is student loan refinancing. As 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:11.119 rates drop, a lot more customers have been placed in 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:13.240 the money, if you will, so there the rates offered 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:15.760 today are much better than what they have today, and 0:18:15.760 --> 0:18:18.879 they're refinancing and restructuring their debt for payment savings, and 0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:21.840 of course, refinancing your student loan debt or your mortgage 0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:24.040 is in some ways a form of stimulus for the 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.680 customer to put extra money in their pockets every month 0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:29.080 and be able to help stimulate more spending and some 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:32.680 of the savings that we've seen customers accelerate. Brendon talk 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:35.639 to us about digital banking. I for one, has really 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:39.640 ramped up my digital banking game during this pandemic. I'm 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:42.840 suspecting other people have as well. Do you expect that 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:45.920 to be a big trend going forward? Yeah, I do. 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:49.280 Digital banking has been a trend that's been increasing for 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:53.280 some time now, and this UH, the COVID period has 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:58.680 has massively accelerated UM digital banking activities. So our digital 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:03.760 metrics are up over and a relatively short period of time, 0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:07.720 our brick and mortar banking is down about the same 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:10.920 amount UH and and so what we're seeing is that 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:15.199 customers are engaging with the digital UM mobile app to 0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:18.640 do their transactional banking much more frequently. They still want 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:21.320 to talk to humans when they have a big life event, 0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:23.600 when they want to talk about retirement or their mortgage. 0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:26.320 So it's very very important our brick and mortar strategy 0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:28.960 and our human interactions will be foundational to our our 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:32.080 strategy and the industry going forward. But digital banking is 0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:34.439 accelerating at quite a clip, which which poses a lot 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:36.800 of questions for retail banks. What should be the size 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:39.240 of your brick and mortar network? UM, You know, do 0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:41.440 you have to upscale your colleagues to have them step 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:44.560 up to more advice based banking versus transactional banking is 0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:48.200 all that moves to a self serve model. Wow, Brandon, 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:50.880 thanks so much for journeyings. We appreciate it. Brendan Coughlin, 0:19:51.119 --> 0:19:53.880 head of consumer banking for Citizens Bank. It is based 0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:57.040 in Providence Road Island, giving us a sense of that growth, 0:19:57.119 --> 0:20:00.040 Vonny in The shift to from bricks and mortars to 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.400 digital is just a fascinating and it seems like it's 0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:05.640 going to be long term for sure, and it's going 0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:07.160 to be interesting to see what happens to all those 0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:10.280 hs BC branches that are closing down. Will other banks 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:12.360 make a bid? But you know, will there be any need? 0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:14.440 If there's going to be such a shift from big 0:20:14.440 --> 0:20:16.440 and mortar to digital, what's what will become of that? 0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:20.160 Realist exactly? I know, Just again speaking for myself, I've 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:22.479 stepped up and done a lot more digital banking more 0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:27.359 than I did pre pandemic. Well, big in the US 0:20:27.440 --> 0:20:31.800 technology companies think Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, they've been facing 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:34.800 much higher levels of regulatory scrutiny. Here in the US. 0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:37.080 We have the Federal Trade Commission, the Department of Justice 0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:40.240 looking at those big tech names. Now that European Union 0:20:40.800 --> 0:20:43.760 it wants new powers to curb tech companies dominance. To 0:20:43.800 --> 0:20:45.760 get some more color on this, we welcome Alex web 0:20:46.160 --> 0:20:49.520 European technology and media columns for Bloomberg Opinion. He joins 0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:51.600 us on the phone from London. Alex, thanks so much 0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:54.320 for joining us here. That the European Union has long 0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:58.760 had a history of tightly monitoring US technology companies. What 0:20:58.760 --> 0:21:00.439 are they looking to do now for some of these 0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:05.480 big tech giants. So there are two proposals to regulation 0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:08.520 which are called spectively, the Digital Markets Act and the 0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:14.000 Innitial Services Act. And one will classify big companies essentially 0:21:14.000 --> 0:21:16.840 that there are ones you can think of um as 0:21:16.960 --> 0:21:20.480 gatekeepers and will there then subject them to particular rules 0:21:20.520 --> 0:21:24.159 which will make it harder to do some acquisitions and 0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:28.040 protect smaller companies that operate on their platforms. And the 0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:31.919 punishments that they can be imposed are fines of up 0:21:31.960 --> 0:21:35.240 to ten percent of revenue and your revenue and in 0:21:35.280 --> 0:21:39.800 the worst case scenario, forced divestments of businesses, which but 0:21:39.920 --> 0:21:43.480 that it was a very extreme scenario. Letters, So it's 0:21:43.560 --> 0:21:46.439 sort of coming added from all sides. If you like, 0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:49.399 I mean it will be successful. How can the companies 0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:54.800 block some of this from happening? Well, so Firstly, it's 0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:56.760 gonna be passed. It's gonna be passed by the European 0:21:56.800 --> 0:22:00.960 Parliament and the Council. That's likely to take about a year, 0:22:01.440 --> 0:22:03.119 and then it will take another six months to come 0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:04.959 to effect. There is going to be a huge lobbying 0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:08.359 effort on the part of these companies. Um, it is 0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:11.440 not a question of really blocking of the European Parliament 0:22:12.240 --> 0:22:15.679 or the European Commission. It's a question of actually just 0:22:15.760 --> 0:22:18.680 ensuring that you're buy by the rules and then the 0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:22.200 europe then there will be no impetus to actually force 0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:24.800 a breakup. You know, the way that these rules work 0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:28.320 is that if you give a regulator the power to 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:30.880 break a company up in an ideal world, they don't 0:22:30.920 --> 0:22:34.440 need to because the threat of the breakup is enough 0:22:34.520 --> 0:22:37.639 to change company's behavior. And that is you know, we 0:22:37.720 --> 0:22:41.680 have seen time and again instances of the big tech 0:22:41.760 --> 0:22:46.040 companies pursuing seemingly anti competitive behavior. They're now being pursued 0:22:46.080 --> 0:22:47.760 for that in the US as well as in Europe 0:22:47.760 --> 0:22:51.680