WEBVTT - Steve Mnuchin Talks Semiannual Reporting, AI and Fed Rates

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:08.119
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Do you want to

0:00:08.119 --> 0:00:11.240
<v Speaker 1>welcome everybody who is watching too on Bloomberg Television Carol Master,

0:00:11.320 --> 0:00:14.200
<v Speaker 1>Joe Matthew live here at the Milkin Institute Global Conference

0:00:14.240 --> 0:00:15.160
<v Speaker 1>in Beverly Hill with.

0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:17.480
<v Speaker 2>A very special guest that we want to welcome here

0:00:17.520 --> 0:00:19.640
<v Speaker 2>to our set at Milk And it's the former Treasury

0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:21.880
<v Speaker 2>Secretary Steven Mnuch And thanks for being with us, sir,

0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:23.600
<v Speaker 2>Great to be here with you. We've got a lot

0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:25.360
<v Speaker 2>we'd love to talk to you about. But we've got

0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:27.440
<v Speaker 2>breaking news that just went right on the terminal right

0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:30.360
<v Speaker 2>before we began the broadcast, and that is a proposal

0:00:30.360 --> 0:00:33.400
<v Speaker 2>by the SEC to go to semi annual reporting, or

0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:35.639
<v Speaker 2>at least allow it. And you can look at two

0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:37.400
<v Speaker 2>different sides of this coin. Do you think this is

0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:39.560
<v Speaker 2>good for the markets? Is it good for investors?

0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:41.600
<v Speaker 3>Well? I support the proposal.

0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:44.279
<v Speaker 4>I think there's too many companies that are too focused

0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:48.880
<v Speaker 4>on quarterly earnings and whether they miss or beat expectations,

0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:52.520
<v Speaker 4>analysts expectations. So I think the idea of giving companies

0:00:52.560 --> 0:00:55.480
<v Speaker 4>the option of whether they want to do quarterly or

0:00:55.520 --> 0:00:57.639
<v Speaker 4>semi annual is a good thing. I mean, I can

0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:01.520
<v Speaker 4>imagine There are a number of company, particularly companies that

0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:04.400
<v Speaker 4>are growing, that are still going to be interested in

0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:08.000
<v Speaker 4>showing quarterly earnings and showing their progress through the air.

0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:10.240
<v Speaker 4>But I think giving companies the option is a very

0:01:10.240 --> 0:01:10.759
<v Speaker 4>good idea.

0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.119
<v Speaker 1>Does it do anything to kind of the global perspective

0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:15.680
<v Speaker 1>from investors about how US market is kind of the

0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:18.959
<v Speaker 1>gold standards, so transparent because of those quarterly reports and

0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:20.880
<v Speaker 1>so much more and some of the rules and regulations

0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:23.160
<v Speaker 1>that really govern our companies here.

0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:25.560
<v Speaker 4>Well, there's no question the US is the gold standard

0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.240
<v Speaker 4>for companies to be listed. It's the most liquid market

0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:31.040
<v Speaker 4>in the world, it's the largest in the largest economy.

0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:34.160
<v Speaker 4>And I think giving companies the options, I think will

0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:35.760
<v Speaker 4>continue to have transparency.

0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:37.160
<v Speaker 5>Do you think most of them will still stick to

0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:38.399
<v Speaker 5>quarterly reporting, Well.

0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:41.199
<v Speaker 3>My guess is some will switch and some won't.

0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:44.119
<v Speaker 4>I mean, as I said, if you're a growth company,

0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:46.800
<v Speaker 4>you have every reason to want to show the growth

0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:50.320
<v Speaker 4>every quarter. If you're a company that's in turnaround and

0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:52.400
<v Speaker 4>things are improving, you're going to want to show it.

0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:56.400
<v Speaker 4>On the other hand, there are plenty of companies where

0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:59.440
<v Speaker 4>they're focused on a long, long term transition.

0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:02.040
<v Speaker 3>I think giving them an option is a good thing.

0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:04.680
<v Speaker 2>To pretty quickly see two classes of companies when it

0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:10.639
<v Speaker 2>comes to reporting season. Yeahs are going to feel really different, Carol.

0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:13.040
<v Speaker 2>But so I'd love to hear from you on this

0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:16.320
<v Speaker 2>market as a whole, in the psychology that's confounding a

0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:19.000
<v Speaker 2>lot of us. As we mentioned already, it's rally time,

0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:22.560
<v Speaker 2>mister Secretary. Oil prices are lower again today after the

0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:26.400
<v Speaker 2>Defense Secretary suggested that this effort in the Strait would

0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:28.560
<v Speaker 2>not go on forever. That's all you need and we're

0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:31.040
<v Speaker 2>back to buying on Wall Street. Is this getting a

0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.600
<v Speaker 2>little topy or can you rationalize what you're seeing?

0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:36.000
<v Speaker 4>I think there's two things that are going on in

0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:40.520
<v Speaker 4>the market. One is that you have very large capex

0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:46.800
<v Speaker 4>spending and very large growth around AI, around data centers,

0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.639
<v Speaker 4>around the cloud, and that to me, we are still

0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:52.960
<v Speaker 4>in the early innings of this transition. There's no question

0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:56.120
<v Speaker 4>that AI is going to impact almost every business that

0:02:56.200 --> 0:02:59.200
<v Speaker 4>we touch, and that's something that's going to be a

0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:01.840
<v Speaker 4>very positive, but there's also going to be job issues

0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:04.680
<v Speaker 4>in job implications on that. The second thing we have

0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:07.680
<v Speaker 4>going on is the US is the destination of where

0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:13.240
<v Speaker 4>people want to invest. You know, Europe's economy is underperforming.

0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:15.520
<v Speaker 4>People are concerned about what's going on in Europe. So

0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:19.080
<v Speaker 4>the flow of funds into the US dollar, in particular

0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:22.320
<v Speaker 4>into US equities is still very strong. As I like

0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:24.760
<v Speaker 4>to say, if you can take a ten year horizon,

0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:27.760
<v Speaker 4>there's no better place than buying s and P five hundreds.

0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:30.239
<v Speaker 3>You know, if you're day trading.

0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:31.959
<v Speaker 4>That's a little bit of a different issue trying to

0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:33.280
<v Speaker 4>predict the short term market.

0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:35.160
<v Speaker 1>How do we figure out whether or not the spend

0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:37.680
<v Speaker 1>in terms of data centers is just too much that

0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:41.040
<v Speaker 1>there isn't some overspend ultimately. You know, we were talking

0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:43.120
<v Speaker 1>on a panel of real estate panel with folks who

0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:46.320
<v Speaker 1>are all investing in data centers, talking maybe like do

0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:48.160
<v Speaker 1>we need to have an exit strategy? You know, we

0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:51.160
<v Speaker 1>talked about data centers in space, like this thing could evolve,

0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:55.000
<v Speaker 1>chips get more efficient. So is it something that could

0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:57.320
<v Speaker 1>be down the road but not to worry about now,

0:03:57.400 --> 0:03:59.160
<v Speaker 1>or do we need to think about the overspend?

0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:04.080
<v Speaker 4>Well, say, in the short term, the demand for compute

0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:07.840
<v Speaker 4>is very strong, and you're seeing this across a number

0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:11.440
<v Speaker 4>of companies. I'd say there's two different things. You have

0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:14.920
<v Speaker 4>open AI and anthropic on the one hand, who are

0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:17.799
<v Speaker 4>going to consume a lot of cash as they build

0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:21.520
<v Speaker 4>out these businesses. And then you have Microsoft, Amazon, Google

0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:26.080
<v Speaker 4>Meta that all are cash machines and are building out

0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:29.479
<v Speaker 4>both AI and are building out the cloud. I think

0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.120
<v Speaker 4>the good news is if there's overspending in the next

0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:36.240
<v Speaker 4>few years, they'll cut back, So I don't think you're

0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:38.520
<v Speaker 4>going to see the same trajectory. I think the other

0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:40.200
<v Speaker 4>issue is going to be we're going to run out

0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:44.560
<v Speaker 4>of power for data centers. So I think it's people

0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:47.960
<v Speaker 4>want to spend the money now get the data centers operating,

0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:50.560
<v Speaker 4>and if they have to scale back over time. I

0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:54.080
<v Speaker 4>mean some of these data centers, particularly the training centers

0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:57.479
<v Speaker 4>that have fifteen year leases, my guess is fifteen years

0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:00.920
<v Speaker 4>from now they're dark. The cloud data centers will have

0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:03.800
<v Speaker 4>tremendous growth and we'll be around for the next fifty years.

0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:06.280
<v Speaker 5>Do you have exposure to the area.

0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:09.000
<v Speaker 4>We spent a lot of time on the area where

0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:12.200
<v Speaker 4>we're long term investors in what we believe are stabilize

0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:13.040
<v Speaker 4>data centers.

0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:15.920
<v Speaker 2>Do you worry that just to add on to that,

0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:17.720
<v Speaker 2>and I think this might be where you're going a

0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:22.320
<v Speaker 2>little bit caroll that efficiencies whatever is going to be

0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.200
<v Speaker 2>developing in the next couple of years will render these

0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:28.640
<v Speaker 2>massive data centers useless. They could be the size of

0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:30.719
<v Speaker 2>a phone booth at some point, or just a completely

0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:33.840
<v Speaker 2>different to Carrol's point in space, is this something that

0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:37.120
<v Speaker 2>has a shorter timeline knowing that technology will evolve.

0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.479
<v Speaker 4>You know, if you look back at data centers from

0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:42.200
<v Speaker 4>twenty years ago in Virginia, we're still using them.

0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:42.760
<v Speaker 6>Well, that's true.

0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:46.960
<v Speaker 4>So again I separate training data centers. You're going to

0:05:47.000 --> 0:05:49.760
<v Speaker 4>need to train these models, then you're going to it's

0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:52.640
<v Speaker 4>very different kind of the cloud native issues. But just

0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:55.680
<v Speaker 4>going back to the market, you know, the market is

0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:59.840
<v Speaker 4>discounting kind of the geopolitical risk in my opinion, so

0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:03.479
<v Speaker 4>you know, we don't really see the market is expecting

0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:06.039
<v Speaker 4>we're going to have a good outcome. I completely support

0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:08.599
<v Speaker 4>President Trump and what he's doing in Iran. I always

0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:12.280
<v Speaker 4>said Iran getting a nuclear weapon is the biggest risk

0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:15.720
<v Speaker 4>in our lifetime, and there's no question from my experience

0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.960
<v Speaker 4>in the government, they intended to do that. You know,

0:06:19.240 --> 0:06:21.160
<v Speaker 4>how we play out from here is a little bit

0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:23.680
<v Speaker 4>more complicated, and as you said, we've seen a lot

0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:27.680
<v Speaker 4>of volatility in the oil markets and the stock market

0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:31.599
<v Speaker 4>is really not discounting this going on for a long.

0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:33.520
<v Speaker 6>Sounds like we're missing something here.

0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:35.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I wouldn't say we're missing.

0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:38.280
<v Speaker 4>What I'd say is hopefully we will have a good outcome.

0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:41.400
<v Speaker 4>Iran will come to the negotiating table. I think the

0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:44.920
<v Speaker 4>economic in the blockade, the sanctions work.

0:06:45.040 --> 0:06:47.320
<v Speaker 2>Even if the straight reopen tomorrow, though we've heard that

0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:50.479
<v Speaker 2>it could be months before energy flows are back to

0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:51.080
<v Speaker 2>where they were.

0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:53.120
<v Speaker 6>Does the market have a reality check coming on that?

0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:57.200
<v Speaker 4>I think it will take a while. Having said that,

0:06:57.240 --> 0:07:02.520
<v Speaker 4>there are such positive things going on in the economy

0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:04.760
<v Speaker 4>that I think to the extent this trade can open

0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:09.040
<v Speaker 4>up relatively soon, well, the economy will absorb those energy costs.

0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:10.600
<v Speaker 1>I want to ask you, you obviously were in the

0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:14.200
<v Speaker 1>first administration. You have a better really probably great understanding

0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:17.280
<v Speaker 1>of President Trump. And as we say, the markets can

0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:18.840
<v Speaker 1>go from day to day based on the headlines, it

0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:19.920
<v Speaker 1>looks like it's.

0:07:19.720 --> 0:07:22.760
<v Speaker 5>A one to eighty. How should we be reading what

0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:25.720
<v Speaker 5>the president is doing? What do we need to understand?

0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.280
<v Speaker 1>Because do you feel like this is a different Donald

0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:30.440
<v Speaker 1>Trump's the second term versus the first term.

0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:31.120
<v Speaker 3>No, I don't.

0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:34.400
<v Speaker 4>I think there's a lot of similarities in it. I

0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:36.600
<v Speaker 4>think on this issue, and this is an issue he's

0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:40.320
<v Speaker 4>been focused on since the first term. He's determined and

0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.960
<v Speaker 4>his legacy will be that he's going to prevent hern

0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:47.160
<v Speaker 4>from getting a nuclear weapon. And there's been other administrations

0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:51.240
<v Speaker 4>that were, you know, understood the risk, but we're concerned.

0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:54.640
<v Speaker 4>I also give Israel a lot of credit because one

0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:57.640
<v Speaker 4>of the concerns was all the ballistic missiles and obviously

0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:01.480
<v Speaker 4>the defense, the air defense system in the region have

0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:04.480
<v Speaker 4>been very powerful. But no, I think this is a

0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:07.720
<v Speaker 4>president that would prefer not to go to war with

0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:09.680
<v Speaker 4>them again, but will if he needs to.

0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:13.480
<v Speaker 1>But this could go. Could it be still talking about

0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:14.400
<v Speaker 1>war at the end of the year.

0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:16.160
<v Speaker 3>I think we could.

0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:20.040
<v Speaker 4>I mean, I think he's determined that he prevents this

0:08:20.120 --> 0:08:25.280
<v Speaker 4>from happening, the nuclear situation, and I think that party

0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:28.360
<v Speaker 4>the issue is and he said this, you know, he

0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:30.680
<v Speaker 4>took out a lot of the leadership. So part of

0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:33.960
<v Speaker 4>this is making sure that leadership develops in Iran that

0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:35.839
<v Speaker 4>can negotiate a deal that they'll stick with.

0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:39.360
<v Speaker 1>What's the other geopolitical? Because you say geopolitical, is it

0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:42.160
<v Speaker 1>just the Middle East? Are you thinking about China? Are

0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:43.720
<v Speaker 1>you thinking about other parts of the world?

0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:46.959
<v Speaker 4>No, I think it's I mean, there is this war

0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.400
<v Speaker 4>in Ukraine. I don't want to forget what's going on

0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:52.520
<v Speaker 4>in Ukraine. That's still an important issue. I feel like

0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:54.840
<v Speaker 4>we don't see it on the press every day. But

0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:57.960
<v Speaker 4>obviously the big issue right now in terms of risks

0:08:58.000 --> 0:08:59.880
<v Speaker 4>for the economy and risk for the world is the

0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:00.839
<v Speaker 4>at the least, you.

0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:04.360
<v Speaker 2>Know, there's another cloud you could argue is hanging over

0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:06.280
<v Speaker 2>this market that has nothing to do with the war

0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:08.400
<v Speaker 2>in ironalthough maybe there's a connection at some point when

0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:11.120
<v Speaker 2>we start talking about the cost of this operation, but

0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:15.080
<v Speaker 2>that's the debt now topping one hundred percent of GDP.

0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:19.240
<v Speaker 2>Mister Secretary, how long can we sustain this? Hank Paulson

0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:23.200
<v Speaker 2>mentioned to David weston the need for a break glass solution.

0:09:23.320 --> 0:09:25.960
<v Speaker 2>What should the Treasury be preparing at this time for this?

0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:31.280
<v Speaker 4>Well, I unfortunately think there's not a break the glass solution,

0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:35.160
<v Speaker 4>you know. I think there's no question that during COVID

0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:38.240
<v Speaker 4>we had to spend massive amounts of money. We shut

0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:41.320
<v Speaker 4>down the economy. I mean, anybody who ran a business

0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:44.760
<v Speaker 4>never ran it thinking you'd have zero revenues. You know,

0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:48.160
<v Speaker 4>I'm particularly proud of we saved the airline industry so

0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.520
<v Speaker 4>we have a very robust airline industry.

0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:55.160
<v Speaker 3>Having said that, well, but we saved.

0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:56.920
<v Speaker 4>The industry overall, and I think it was I think

0:09:56.960 --> 0:09:59.480
<v Speaker 4>it was the right thing to let spirit go through

0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:03.600
<v Speaker 4>what they are. Having said that, it kind of normalized

0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:06.920
<v Speaker 4>trillion dollar spending. And I think this is an issue

0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:10.679
<v Speaker 4>that needs bipartisan support. You know, part of it is

0:10:10.800 --> 0:10:15.520
<v Speaker 4>the mandatory spending. We have to deal with that part

0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:18.520
<v Speaker 4>of the budget, and you know you also do though

0:10:18.559 --> 0:10:19.199
<v Speaker 4>if you look.

0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:22.240
<v Speaker 1>At what's being allocated for defense in budget, it's a lot.

0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:25.520
<v Speaker 4>Look, there's no question, particularly in this day and age,

0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:28.160
<v Speaker 4>we need to spend more money in defense. I think

0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:30.520
<v Speaker 4>right now it's going to be hard to spend another

0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:35.520
<v Speaker 4>five hundred billion dollars in defense without significantly cutting other

0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:40.040
<v Speaker 4>things out of the budget. So I am concerned about deficits.

0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:42.120
<v Speaker 4>I think this has to be dealt with. And I

0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:45.120
<v Speaker 4>think the good thing is President Trump understands these issues

0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:49.160
<v Speaker 4>and if there's someone who can tackle the spending issues,

0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:50.400
<v Speaker 4>I think he's the one to do it.

0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.760
<v Speaker 5>Does this mean, I mean, what's the make or break moment?

0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:56.600
<v Speaker 1>Because I'll go back ten fifteen years we were talking

0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:58.640
<v Speaker 1>about concerns about the deficit or more, and then it

0:10:58.679 --> 0:10:59.640
<v Speaker 1>kind of faded away.

0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:01.600
<v Speaker 5>So what is the make or break moment?

0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:03.920
<v Speaker 1>And I think about this in the context of Kevin

0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.280
<v Speaker 1>warsh coming in as the next FED share you know,

0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:08.719
<v Speaker 1>in terms of servicing the dent and so on and

0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.839
<v Speaker 1>so forth, pressure that might be on him kind of

0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:14.720
<v Speaker 1>roll it all together. Do you think that he should

0:11:14.720 --> 0:11:16.200
<v Speaker 1>be cutting rates in this environment?

0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:21.839
<v Speaker 4>Well, I think we're close to the equilibrium rate. So

0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:25.480
<v Speaker 4>before the situation in the Mid East, we did have

0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:29.319
<v Speaker 4>inflation coming down close to the FEDS two percent target,

0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:32.480
<v Speaker 4>and I think you could say the equilibrium rate is

0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:35.400
<v Speaker 4>probably between two and a half and three percent.

0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:37.360
<v Speaker 3>So we're close to that level.

0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:40.959
<v Speaker 4>Also, there's no question that the deficits push up our

0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:44.360
<v Speaker 4>cost of funding, so that there's a risk premium built in.

0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:46.920
<v Speaker 4>And one of the things that Kevin is talking about,

0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:50.400
<v Speaker 4>which I also support, is shrinking the fed's portfolio. Well,

0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:54.400
<v Speaker 4>if you shrink the fed's portfolio, that's also another tool

0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:56.000
<v Speaker 4>that you don't.

0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:58.160
<v Speaker 3>Have to lower rates.

0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:02.120
<v Speaker 4>Ultimately, the FED does shrek term set short term rights.

0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.160
<v Speaker 4>If they're not doing quantitative easing, which they're not going

0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:08.640
<v Speaker 4>to do now, they're not setting long term rights. I mean,

0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:10.480
<v Speaker 4>and I don't think we're going to have a make

0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.640
<v Speaker 4>or break moment where one day we wake up and

0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.920
<v Speaker 4>we can't finance the debt. I do think you'll see

0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:19.439
<v Speaker 4>an increase in risk premiums. I mean, you see the

0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:23.120
<v Speaker 4>thirty year bond kind of approaching, you know, kind of

0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:28.280
<v Speaker 4>five percent. Part of that is the volatility around inflation

0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:30.160
<v Speaker 4>and what's going to happen with the word. But part

0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:32.280
<v Speaker 4>of that is also just pushing up the cost of

0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:34.480
<v Speaker 4>long term financing for us.

0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:36.760
<v Speaker 2>What's Kevin worshin for when he wakes up in the

0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:39.959
<v Speaker 2>morning and looks at truth social is this contentious relationship

0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.160
<v Speaker 2>with the chair if he's not cutting going to continue.

0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:47.040
<v Speaker 3>I think Kevin will be terrific in his new job. Ok.

0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:53.880
<v Speaker 4>I think he will be an independent fat That doesn't

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:57.400
<v Speaker 4>mean that he will or won't agree with the president. Now, look,

0:12:57.559 --> 0:12:59.959
<v Speaker 4>part of it is where interest rates are depending on

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.480
<v Speaker 4>the economy. If we continue to have a very strong economy,

0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:05.680
<v Speaker 4>we're not going to need to cut rights. If for

0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:08.440
<v Speaker 4>whatever reason, we go into a recession, we will have

0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:11.640
<v Speaker 4>one percent rates. So I mean, we had zero rates

0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:13.959
<v Speaker 4>in COVID. You know there was a reason why they

0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:14.840
<v Speaker 4>went down to zero.

0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.200
<v Speaker 5>Hey, we can't leave without talking about lions Gate. Thank you.

0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:21.360
<v Speaker 5>Guys have about a thirteen percent position. Do what's your

0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:22.960
<v Speaker 5>plan with lions Gate? What do you want to do?

0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.240
<v Speaker 4>It's a great business. I've recently gone on the board.

0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:30.320
<v Speaker 4>Lionsgate is one of the few independent studios left. It

0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:34.760
<v Speaker 4>has an incredible film library, and Michael's been a great success.

0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:37.199
<v Speaker 3>So you want to learn all the story Michael Jackson.

0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:39.719
<v Speaker 3>I can't comment on that.

0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.480
<v Speaker 2>Well, so let's wrap with one fun question about the movies.

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:48.160
<v Speaker 2>Michael is an incredible debut. It looks like it's across

0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:50.000
<v Speaker 2>the board when it comes to demographics, and we're in

0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:52.720
<v Speaker 2>a world where consumer sentiment is pointing lower. They're worries

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.880
<v Speaker 2>about consumer spending, the price of gas, but they're lining

0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:56.720
<v Speaker 2>up for that movie.

0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:58.200
<v Speaker 6>What does that tell us about that?

0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.440
<v Speaker 4>It shows you that when you have the right content,

0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:04.000
<v Speaker 4>people still want to go to the movies. It's not

0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 4>just about sitting at home and watching it on TV.

0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 4>And you know, Michael Jackson was just an incredible performer

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:13.239
<v Speaker 4>and his music was obviously pretty extraordinary on my playlist,

0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:16.160
<v Speaker 4>got to be and we all remember growing up with

0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:17.320
<v Speaker 4>MTVA and trailer.

0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:20.960
<v Speaker 6>It's not just old folks going on exactly not.

0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.359
<v Speaker 5>You do you miss the administration?

0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:26.640
<v Speaker 4>Being inside, it was an experience of a lifetime. I

0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:28.760
<v Speaker 4>couldn't be happier that I did it. I'm proud of

0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:31.320
<v Speaker 4>what we did. I'm enjoying being on the outside and

0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:32.360
<v Speaker 4>rooting for them.

0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:34.480
<v Speaker 5>Well, we certainly enjoyed having here. Thank you so much.

0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:38.080
<v Speaker 1>Really appreciate Steven Menisin of course former Treasury Secretary, and

0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:41.120
<v Speaker 1>of course he is Liberty Strategic Capital founder and managing partner.