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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Eric Canter joins us now, the former House Majority leader

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Speaker 2: and vice chair of Molus and Company.

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Speaker 3: Eric, Good to see you, sir, Good to be here.

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Speaker 2: We're all trying to figure out how close are we

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Speaker 2: to a point where a leader in America comes out

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Speaker 2: with a set of policies and this market rejects it.

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Speaker 3: How close are we to that moment?

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Speaker 4: You know, John, it is so reminiscent of the discussion

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Speaker 4: that we had even when I was on the hill,

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Speaker 4: and if you look back even ten years ago, we

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Speaker 4: were screaming the same thing that we have reached a

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Speaker 4: point of unsustainable debt levels. We have to do something

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Speaker 4: about it. And I certainly agree with what both Kim

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Speaker 4: Griffin and Larry Frank Larry Fink have said that we

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Speaker 4: are on an unsustainable path. I think, though, that the

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Speaker 4: discussion around the debt and deficit is a little bit

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Speaker 4: too simplistic, because yes, it's okay to have some level

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Speaker 4: of debt and deficit. I think people, most people in

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Speaker 4: their lives have it, and I think the government's the same.

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Speaker 4: I think the trouble you get into is when you

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Speaker 4: start growing that deficit more quick and the debt more

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Speaker 4: quickly than you grow the economy. And there is no

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Speaker 4: agreement though on what to do about this, And so

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Speaker 4: if the parties would sort of step back and focus

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Speaker 4: on growing the economy, it actually the decisions to correct

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Speaker 4: the situation would be a little bit easier, the political

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Speaker 4: cost a little less if people could just try and

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Speaker 4: focus on how we're growing the economy instead of a

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Speaker 4: lot of the policy that's underway in Washington.

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Speaker 2: Isn't that the argument that the former administration led by

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Speaker 2: President Donald Trump essentially made that we can pile a

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Speaker 2: more debt, but ultimately we're going to do it because

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Speaker 2: we're pro growth.

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Speaker 3: Did that work out well?

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Speaker 4: No, because you've got to address both. I mean, there's

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Speaker 4: no question that it is the demographics in our country

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Speaker 4: and the healthcare costs and the increase in those healthcare

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Speaker 4: costs turbo charge now with higher interest rates. That's where

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Speaker 4: this is. This trifecta of a really toxic mix that

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Speaker 4: we've got that is threatening I think the future. And

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Speaker 4: I don't know if we're going to see the two

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Speaker 4: candidates for president, the existing the incumbent and Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: ever propose a fix to this. But I think we

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Speaker 4: know how to do it. We talked about how to

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Speaker 4: do it when I was there.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting that you have both sides of this. You

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Speaker 1: have from the policy perspective when you're in Congress, and

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Speaker 1: you have now from the Wall Street perspective when you're

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Speaker 1: deciding how to invest and where to allocate. How convinced

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Speaker 1: are you that this time is different, that the bond

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Speaker 1: market is going to wake up to the risks that

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Speaker 1: you see from the fiscal side.

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Speaker 3: Well, listen, I.

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Speaker 4: Think on the deal making side at MOLAS, I mean,

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Speaker 4: what we're seeing is clients who really reacted over the

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Speaker 4: last couple of years to this volatility and uncertainly around

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Speaker 4: interest rates. Obviously, interest rates when you're in the deal

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Speaker 4: making business are very very impactful. So you know, I

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Speaker 4: do think you know, at some point the market is

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Speaker 4: going to reject this continued incurrence of debt. I mean,

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Speaker 4: we're spending a trillion, seven hundred billion dollars more of

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Speaker 4: money than we have every single year at some point.

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Speaker 4: But again, I always go back to the fact that

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Speaker 4: we're quote unquote the fastest killed on the block in

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Speaker 4: this country. Where else are you going to put your money?

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Speaker 4: And whether we're seeing signs of that now and diversification,

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure yet. I'm not sure because when I

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Speaker 4: look at it and you look at the ADP.

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Speaker 3: Report out today.

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Speaker 4: We'll get the jobs repoured out later this week. But

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Speaker 4: you know where else is there this innovation and dynamism.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we're on a role in this country where

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Speaker 4: you've got more small business startups than we've ever had before.

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Speaker 4: That is a signal that people are optimistic about America.

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Speaker 5: If the market, though, was to push Washington's hand, because

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Speaker 5: you know, Washington is not going to be the ones

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Speaker 5: to come up with a plan for the fiscal deficit.

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Speaker 5: Are the right people in place? You had a great

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Speaker 5: relationship in twenty eleven with then former Vice President Biden.

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Speaker 5: He's spoken glowingly about you able to work in a

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Speaker 5: bipartisan fashion. Are the right people in place to actually

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Speaker 5: come to the crisis?

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Speaker 4: Look, I think that the situation will demand that people

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Speaker 4: you know, step up and come up with a solution.

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Speaker 4: And there's really to me. If you want to fix

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Speaker 4: the problem and send the signal to the markets that

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Speaker 4: the country and the investors in the markets that the

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Speaker 4: country is on the right path, you know, it's a

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Speaker 4: simple notion, But it's difficult politically. You know, you just

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Speaker 4: take the steps to change the healthcare entitlement, the Medicare

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Speaker 4: program from a defined benefit system to a defined contribution

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Speaker 4: and basically off lay some of the risks to the beneficiaries.

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Speaker 4: That's really really tough politically. But if there were a crisis,

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Speaker 4: if the markets did reject what's going on in Washington,

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Speaker 4: you could take more interim steps to go in and

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Speaker 4: tweak the age of a retirement, to reduce the indexing

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Speaker 4: of benefits. You could means test there are some things

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Speaker 4: where you could buy and the government could buy us

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Speaker 4: decade plus in terms of the viability of these programs.

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Speaker 5: That just doesn't win elections. I want to talk about

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Speaker 5: some of the proposals we are hearing from the candidates.

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Speaker 5: Former President Don Trump is talking about ten percent tariffs

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Speaker 5: a wall and then sixty percent blanket tariffs on China.

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Speaker 3: We ran the.

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Speaker 5: Numbers, says PC would be north of three percent. Yet again,

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Speaker 5: do you think you would actually do that given the

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Speaker 5: fact that this can mean such higher inflation, especially on

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Speaker 5: everyday Americans.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, I.

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Speaker 4: Think he goes back to that ammunition that someone had

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Speaker 4: given back in sixteen. You know, don't take him literally,

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Speaker 4: take him figuratively. Who knows, who knows what we can expect.

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Speaker 4: I think the unpredictability is what he likes. And there's

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Speaker 4: no question that his messages we have been taken advantage

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Speaker 4: of by others, in particular China, and we need to

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Speaker 4: step up and gain some leverage when we try and

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Speaker 4: negotiate some resolution of this situation. But listen, there are

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Speaker 4: very troubling signs coming out of China suffering apart from

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Speaker 4: the national security concerns around particularly sensitive industries. And you know,

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Speaker 4: because you think about what's going on with EVS and

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Speaker 4: the fact that the Chinese government is well aware they've

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Speaker 4: got to do something to take care of their domestic economy,

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Speaker 4: so they are ramping up production manufacturing sector and guess what,

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Speaker 4: they're going to have so much excess that now they're

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Speaker 4: already looking like they're sort of dumping all those into Europe.

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Speaker 4: And the Eve situation very very concerning in our OEMs

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Speaker 4: here are equally I think, as concerned that that may.

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Speaker 1: Happen when it comes to a deal making perspective, how

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Speaker 1: much you're avoiding cross border deals because of some of

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Speaker 1: these questions and concerns.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, I think it's very interesting because so

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Speaker 4: much of the sectors that investors will look to really

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Speaker 4: we're shining in the US, and there's a lot of European,

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Speaker 4: Asian Middle East investors who are looking to allocate their

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Speaker 4: capital here in the US. But of course there are

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Speaker 4: political ramifications to monies coming in, and we've seen that

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Speaker 4: when it comes to countries that are not aligned with US,

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Speaker 4: whether it's China or someone else who is just not

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Speaker 4: on the favored list, you have to go through the

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Speaker 4: hoops with Scippius and things like that. But I think

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Speaker 4: the real concern that you know, I continue to hear

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Speaker 4: from clients at MOLUS and others is the fact that

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Speaker 4: we've got a situation with our anti trust regulators that

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Speaker 4: it's not just applicable to cross border deals, it's applicable

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Speaker 4: to every deal. And I think what Lena Kahan Jonathan

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Speaker 4: Canner have done at both FTC and DOJ has been

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Speaker 4: such a stretch in terms of interpreting the law and

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Speaker 4: the anti trust law, and they've I think done a

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Speaker 4: disservice to our country, to investors, and frankly damaging the

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Speaker 4: competitiveness of America. As a destination for capital.

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Speaker 3: That's the world we live in right now.

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Speaker 2: We were talking to Brian moynihan just the other week

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Speaker 2: on the trading floor of Banks for America had a

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Speaker 2: similar complaint. He was talking about the amount of deals

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Speaker 2: that were being held back by the prospect of them

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Speaker 2: just not being able to pass, not being able to

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Speaker 2: go through, and no one wanted to be on the

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Speaker 2: wrong side of that, being left to hung out to

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Speaker 2: drive for a year without any idea of whether the

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Speaker 2: deal will close or not. You've seen the same thing,

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Speaker 2: potential deals that could close that just aren't being made

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Speaker 2: right now.

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Speaker 4: You know, I do think, and what I will say

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Speaker 4: to decision makers is that you know, if we're going

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Speaker 4: to go forward, if there's going to be a deal

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Speaker 4: to work, we're going to have to make sure that

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Speaker 4: we allocate the necessary time, resources and commitment to get

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Speaker 4: through that process.

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Speaker 3: But think about it, if we like to.

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Speaker 4: Be the location in the world where capital flows to

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Speaker 4: its most efficient use, where it's the most dynamic economy velocity.

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Speaker 3: Of capital, we shouldn't have to do this.

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Speaker 4: And unfortunately, there is just an overwhelming ideology that's infecting

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Speaker 4: the policy in the current administration in Washington that is

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Speaker 4: not necessarily that favorable. But again, all the while you

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Speaker 4: look to and say where else or is it any better?

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Speaker 2: Let me ask you this though, is that ideology infect

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Speaker 2: in both parties? Because right on cue deal crosses the

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Speaker 2: Blimberg terminal. We announce it, we talk about it, we

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Speaker 2: go to the Twitter account of the Center of Massachusetts

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Speaker 2: tweet shock.

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Speaker 3: Not surprised at all. What is surprising is the amount.

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Speaker 2: Of Republicans that agree with the Now that's a shift,

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Speaker 2: and I'm trying to work out do we actually have

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Speaker 2: a business friendly party in Washington law does one exist?

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Speaker 4: Well, let's say, I always le'd say I'm a limited government,

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Speaker 4: pro free market, pro national security conservative Republican. But I agree, Jonathan,

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Speaker 4: with your with your sentiment that Donald Trump has changed

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Speaker 4: the nature of the Republican Party. We are, i believe,

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Speaker 4: now perceived as the working class party, and the Democratic

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Speaker 4: Party has done more to ingratiate itself with quote unquote

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Speaker 4: the elite and the very and the very far left

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Speaker 4: on the ideological spectrum. And somehow the extremes are meeting

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Speaker 4: and you're seeing this happen. And I worry about this

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Speaker 4: because this extreme push in terms of government role in

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Speaker 4: the economy has happened with the support of both parties.

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Speaker 4: You look at the IRA Bill, certainly that was one party,

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Speaker 4: that was the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 3: But if you look at the Chips Bill, uh, look

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Speaker 3: that look what that did?

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Speaker 4: I mean that was industrial policy focus on a particular

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Speaker 4: industry that folks in my party decided was a good

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Speaker 4: thing for national security. So let's let the government go

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Speaker 4: all in. That is not sort of the limited government

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Speaker 4: outlook that you see.

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Speaker 3: And so you're right there is a shift towards labor.

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Speaker 4: Labor is in the polling public polling in this country

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Speaker 4: at all time high in terms of favorability, and both

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Speaker 4: parties you've seen it. How in the world can a

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Speaker 4: White House go and join the picket lines.

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Speaker 3: That's what President Biden did, But you know what, so

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Speaker 3: did Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: So did several Republican Senators joined the picket lines in Detroit.

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Speaker 5: Well to Jonathan's point, jd Vance, who is a VP

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Speaker 5: shortlist candidate, literally came out and said he thinks, men,

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Speaker 5: a con is maybe the only effective person in the

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Speaker 5: Biden administration.

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Speaker 3: So say it was to be Trump, are you getting the.

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Speaker 5: Same sort of doj same sort of FTC.

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Speaker 4: I see, and you know that's the real question. As

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Speaker 4: the weather, we're going to continue to see the extremity.

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Speaker 4: I don't buy that because I still think there is

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Speaker 4: a DNN.

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Speaker 5: We're a product of that extremity. You lost your seat

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Speaker 5: because of that, in that populous wave that people said

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Speaker 5: you were really the beginning of it.

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Speaker 4: But remember where the anger was. The anger really was

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Speaker 4: against the so called establishment. It wasn't necessarily towards you know,

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Speaker 4: it was towards everything we thought and probably assigned an

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Speaker 4: over weight to the import of profalygates spending in Washington.

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Speaker 4: I think it was just more it is about the establishment,

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Speaker 4: the system, et cetera. I don't necessarily think people are

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Speaker 4: going to the polls in November based on anti trust regulation.

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Speaker 3: I really don't.

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Speaker 4: So I think that where you're going to have manifests

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Speaker 4: in a next Republican Trump administration is more of the

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Speaker 4: DNA that's a little bit more balanced and not so

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Speaker 4: punitive on corporates.

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Speaker 1: People might not be going to the polls, but you

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Speaker 1: have to plan a business around it. And that's really

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Speaker 1: one of the key questions. And we keep getting people

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Speaker 1: in here saying LORI Calvacina. It's like staring at the sun.

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Speaker 1: How do you plan for something that feels like it

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Speaker 1: is shifting and you don't know exactly? How is there

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Speaker 1: any way that you are planning with the business and

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Speaker 1: the deal making to get ahead of whatever kind of

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Speaker 1: push we're going to get in November.

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Speaker 4: So I just think that we've got to be very mindful.

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Speaker 4: In twenty twenty five, there will be the super Bowl

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Speaker 4: of fiscal policy debate because you've got expiration of the

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Speaker 4: Trump tax cuts and some would say, well not all

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Speaker 4: of them, Well, yes, there will be. Everything will be

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Speaker 4: on the table. And just to extend the lower the

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Speaker 4: four hundred thousand dollars and under income bracket, that's a

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Speaker 4: three point two trillion dollar issue.

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Speaker 3: You talk about the debt.

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Speaker 4: Fiscal year twenty three, we were at seven hundred and

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Speaker 4: ninety one billion dollars of interest costs and we're going up,

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Speaker 4: and so everything's going to be on the table.

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Speaker 2: IRA.

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Speaker 4: The subsidies I can, I would say if there's any

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Speaker 4: anticipation and advice I would give for those who have

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Speaker 4: been on the uptake in terms of these subsidies with

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Speaker 4: the IRA, especially as relates to EVS and renewable industries,

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Speaker 4: we better take a real look to see whether we

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Speaker 4: think those will continue, because they're going to be on

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Speaker 4: the table too. I believe my party will first up

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Speaker 4: look at some of those subsidies and get rid of them.

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Speaker 2: So final question for you trying to work this sold

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Speaker 2: out because I think this is really really difficult. In

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, we had a candidate, and I think if

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Speaker 2: you could divorce the person from the policy, the policy

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Speaker 2: you looked at was pro business, low tax is confrontation

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Speaker 2: at some point with China, and then TikTok cappened in

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Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks, and I was just thinking,

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Speaker 2: it's the Trump template from Volume one.

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Speaker 3: Applicable to volume two. Do you think it is?

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Speaker 4: I do. I don't think that he has changed much

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Speaker 4: in terms of his career trajectory. He's always been anti China.

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Speaker 4: He's always tried to go and getting some leverage in negotiations.

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Speaker 4: He's a deal maker. I also think that he is

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Speaker 4: focused on a growing economy.

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Speaker 3: I think at the end of the day, with all.

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Speaker 4: The noise you see from j D Bands coming together

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Speaker 4: with Elizabeth Warren and what have you, you, at the

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Speaker 4: end of the day, the Trump administration next time will

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Speaker 4: be pro business because he'll want to see a growing economy.

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Speaker 3: I could tell you all day this was great. I

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Speaker 3: stood against so him.

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Speaker 1: Eric.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Eric Cantor the of my lists.