Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, Single.
Speaker 2: Best Idea and the Single Best Idea. Now I was
Speaker 2: to say thank you to Man Deep Sing, who just
Speaker 2: was outstanding yesterday with a supporting cast of Anaagrana out
Speaker 2: in Chicago and a major thanks to Stacy Roskin of
Speaker 2: Bernstein getting up very early in La on what we
Speaker 2: all witnessed yesterday. I have no idea where this is heading,
Speaker 2: but all I know is what I do is just
Speaker 2: shut up and read, and I shut up and listen
Speaker 2: to people like Man Deep Sing. It was just a
Speaker 2: real triumph yesterday. We had a huge response. Thank you
Speaker 2: to all of you on the Single Best Idea podcast
Speaker 2: and to all of our good guests today. We tried
Speaker 2: to get off of Nvidia, off of AI and you
Speaker 2: do that with a definitive guest. On fixed income, Ian
Speaker 2: Lncoln is legendary at Beamont Capital Markets. He writes an
Speaker 2: incredibly dense daily note that is read word for word
Speaker 2: on Wall Street. Ian Lingoln on the FED meeting where
Speaker 2: we are on the curve.
Speaker 1: I think that this is the part of the cycle
Speaker 1: where it is a make or break moment for the
Speaker 1: bear steepening narrative, and that is that core short from
Speaker 1: the speculative community in tens and thirties that has been
Speaker 1: persistent throughout a lot of the cycle. I think that
Speaker 1: we're poised for a reversal. Everyone's been waiting for an
Speaker 1: opportunity to buy treasuries that have been waiting for the
Speaker 1: proverbial dust to settle. Hasn't settled yet, but it's to
Speaker 1: some extent. It's the opposite of what we've seen in
Speaker 1: the equity market, which is everyone's waiting for a moment
Speaker 1: to sell. Now people are waiting for a moment to
Speaker 1: add to treasuries.
Speaker 2: My amateur nuance there is Lingen is looking for the
Speaker 2: opportunity of modestly higher yields where he will step into
Speaker 2: price up lower. He was adamant that he can't call
Speaker 2: that right now. Maybe that has a little bit to
Speaker 2: do with the Fed meeting tomorrow. Don't forget the Fed
Speaker 2: decides tomorrow at one thirty. Jonathan Farrell, Lisa Abramowitz, and myself,
Speaker 2: and we'll give you coverage over the Powell press conference again,
Speaker 2: Ian Lincoln here on the fixed income market.
Speaker 1: If we look historically, it's very tempting to say, look,
Speaker 1: we're back towards the averages. We're back at normal. But
Speaker 1: the reality is that as the real economy has evolved
Speaker 1: over the course of the last two or three decades,
Speaker 1: we have become accustomed to lower real yields and lower
Speaker 1: nominal yields. So I'll argue that we're still at the
Speaker 1: upper end, or the restrictive part of the cycle. And
Speaker 1: the nuance is that during the pandemic, everyone including corporations,
Speaker 1: we're able to lock in extremely low long term financing
Speaker 1: rack of mortgages, and we're still working through that buffer
Speaker 1: to absorb high inflation or to drive consumption.
Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney's been really big on that, the idea that
Speaker 2: everybody did manipulations during the pandemic, and that's changed, to
Speaker 2: use an overused word, it's changed the calculus of where
Speaker 2: we are right now. Ian Lincoln is with BEMO Capital Markets.
Speaker 2: Tomorrow the FED meeting, and then we move on tomorrow
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