WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Ian Lyngen

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, Single.

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<v Speaker 2>Best Idea and the Single Best Idea. Now I was

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<v Speaker 2>to say thank you to Man Deep Sing, who just

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<v Speaker 2>was outstanding yesterday with a supporting cast of Anaagrana out

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<v Speaker 2>in Chicago and a major thanks to Stacy Roskin of

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<v Speaker 2>Bernstein getting up very early in La on what we

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<v Speaker 2>all witnessed yesterday. I have no idea where this is heading,

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<v Speaker 2>but all I know is what I do is just

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<v Speaker 2>shut up and read, and I shut up and listen

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<v Speaker 2>to people like Man Deep Sing. It was just a

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<v Speaker 2>real triumph yesterday. We had a huge response. Thank you

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<v Speaker 2>to all of you on the Single Best Idea podcast

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<v Speaker 2>and to all of our good guests today. We tried

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<v Speaker 2>to get off of Nvidia, off of AI and you

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<v Speaker 2>do that with a definitive guest. On fixed income, Ian

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<v Speaker 2>Lncoln is legendary at Beamont Capital Markets. He writes an

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<v Speaker 2>incredibly dense daily note that is read word for word

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<v Speaker 2>on Wall Street. Ian Lingoln on the FED meeting where

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<v Speaker 2>we are on the curve.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that this is the part of the cycle

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<v Speaker 1>where it is a make or break moment for the

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<v Speaker 1>bear steepening narrative, and that is that core short from

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<v Speaker 1>the speculative community in tens and thirties that has been

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<v Speaker 1>persistent throughout a lot of the cycle. I think that

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<v Speaker 1>we're poised for a reversal. Everyone's been waiting for an

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity to buy treasuries that have been waiting for the

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<v Speaker 1>proverbial dust to settle. Hasn't settled yet, but it's to

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<v Speaker 1>some extent. It's the opposite of what we've seen in

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<v Speaker 1>the equity market, which is everyone's waiting for a moment

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<v Speaker 1>to sell. Now people are waiting for a moment to

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<v Speaker 1>add to treasuries.

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<v Speaker 2>My amateur nuance there is Lingen is looking for the

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<v Speaker 2>opportunity of modestly higher yields where he will step into

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<v Speaker 2>price up lower. He was adamant that he can't call

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<v Speaker 2>that right now. Maybe that has a little bit to

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<v Speaker 2>do with the Fed meeting tomorrow. Don't forget the Fed

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<v Speaker 2>decides tomorrow at one thirty. Jonathan Farrell, Lisa Abramowitz, and myself,

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<v Speaker 2>and we'll give you coverage over the Powell press conference again,

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<v Speaker 2>Ian Lincoln here on the fixed income market.

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<v Speaker 1>If we look historically, it's very tempting to say, look,

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<v Speaker 1>we're back towards the averages. We're back at normal. But

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<v Speaker 1>the reality is that as the real economy has evolved

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<v Speaker 1>over the course of the last two or three decades,

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<v Speaker 1>we have become accustomed to lower real yields and lower

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<v Speaker 1>nominal yields. So I'll argue that we're still at the

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<v Speaker 1>upper end, or the restrictive part of the cycle. And

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<v Speaker 1>the nuance is that during the pandemic, everyone including corporations,

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<v Speaker 1>we're able to lock in extremely low long term financing

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<v Speaker 1>rack of mortgages, and we're still working through that buffer

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<v Speaker 1>to absorb high inflation or to drive consumption.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Sweeney's been really big on that, the idea that

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<v Speaker 2>everybody did manipulations during the pandemic, and that's changed, to

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<v Speaker 2>use an overused word, it's changed the calculus of where

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<v Speaker 2>we are right now. Ian Lincoln is with BEMO Capital Markets.

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<v Speaker 2>Tomorrow the FED meeting, and then we move on tomorrow

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<v Speaker 2>as well into an important earnings season. I really can't

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<v Speaker 2>say enough about the entire broad network of Bloomberg LP

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<v Speaker 2>and Bloomberg News to give you perspective on those tech

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<v Speaker 2>It's single best I do