1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:08,719
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's good.

2
00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:08,799
Speaker 2: All right.

3
00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:09,280
Speaker 3: Here we go.

4
00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:16,880
Speaker 2: Throwing job spectacular. I'm sending up to catch touchdown. We'll

5
00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:19,840
Speaker 2: see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

6
00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:20,239
Speaker 2: to wind.

7
00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:22,560
Speaker 1: That's incredible.

8
00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:24,560
Speaker 4: Big bank, small bank.

9
00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:25,680
Speaker 2: I like to make money.

10
00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:26,120
Speaker 3: All right.

11
00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:28,520
Speaker 1: This is the Ultimate Kaba.

12
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:37,760
Speaker 2: And we are Conderway and welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

13
00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,639
Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond. And it's been a minute,

14
00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:46,200
Speaker 2: but we are back. And I got my guide Prime

15
00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,479
Speaker 2: Minister of Degenerate Nation stucky here. I got my guy

16
00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:54,360
Speaker 2: Sean Kerner here. We are going to talk some AFC

17
00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,920
Speaker 2: win totals on this pod. We'll go with the AFC

18
00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:02,720
Speaker 2: East and the af North. Fllas, how y'all doing. Man,

19
00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:03,920
Speaker 2: it's good to be back together.

20
00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,679
Speaker 3: I'm excited to get back with you, Ev. And it's

21
00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,960
Speaker 3: the grind is officially here. I love the preparation part

22
00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,200
Speaker 3: of it. You know, it's such a fascinating league. You

23
00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:17,399
Speaker 3: have thirty two teams approaching this in you know, thirty

24
00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:21,200
Speaker 3: two different ways and trying to crack who's gonna make

25
00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:22,920
Speaker 3: a jump this year and who's going to take a

26
00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,280
Speaker 3: step back. It's just always a fascinating process, so I

27
00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,720
Speaker 3: always enjoy it before we actually get into the grind.

28
00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,039
Speaker 3: So I'm excited to kick things off here.

29
00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:35,000
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I think Sean, you are the You probably

30
00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:36,800
Speaker 2: have the most sleep out of the three of us

31
00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:38,880
Speaker 2: on this pod, because I know Stucky's going on like

32
00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,960
Speaker 2: forty hours and I'm somewhere in the twenty four range.

33
00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,600
Speaker 2: I definitely haven't slept last night, So how you feel,

34
00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:45,959
Speaker 2: I don't know about the.

35
00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:48,520
Speaker 5: Whole sleep thing. I am running all of our DFS

36
00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:53,280
Speaker 5: preseason projections, so that's that's a whole other full time job.

37
00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,400
Speaker 5: But happy to be all with Stucky. I feel like

38
00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:57,920
Speaker 5: I'm usually listening to you guys in season, so it's

39
00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,680
Speaker 5: always fun being on the Stuck and looking forward to

40
00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:02,160
Speaker 5: talking AFC win totals.

41
00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,080
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, and for all.

42
00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 2: You guys out there, me and Stuck aren't going anywhere.

43
00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,200
Speaker 2: We'll be doing the same show every Thursday with our

44
00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,480
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack and all that good stuff. So just

45
00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,480
Speaker 2: gonna start getting the palette wet, talking some wind totals.

46
00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,080
Speaker 2: We'll have episodes on every division. We'll go too at

47
00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,880
Speaker 2: a time. Let's start with the AFC East. I'll jump

48
00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:27,760
Speaker 2: right in Stucky I'm gonna start with the best team

49
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,320
Speaker 2: in the AFC East last year, one of the best

50
00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,200
Speaker 2: teams in the a f C depending on which metric

51
00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:35,400
Speaker 2: you look at, and that's the Buffalo Bills.

52
00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:37,480
Speaker 1: Buffalo downs.

53
00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:43,359
Speaker 2: Some Bills make me throw your hand something, throw your hair.

54
00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:46,360
Speaker 4: Now the Bills, I'm making it.

55
00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:49,840
Speaker 2: When you see Josh Allen make that kind of jump,

56
00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,360
Speaker 2: you see the team perform as good as they did

57
00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,200
Speaker 2: pretty much almost got to the super Bowl. I mean

58
00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,200
Speaker 2: they came within maybe a bad half of going to

59
00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,520
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. Uh do you think regrets first with

60
00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:02,840
Speaker 2: this Buffalo team or is this a team that you

61
00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,560
Speaker 2: think is going to continue to play at the top

62
00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:06,960
Speaker 2: of your class.

63
00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:08,560
Speaker 3: On the surface, when this is a team that I

64
00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,880
Speaker 3: normally would say, you know, there's maybe some regression coming

65
00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,160
Speaker 3: after how much of a jump Josh Allen has made

66
00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,760
Speaker 3: in each of the past two seasons. But from everything

67
00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,640
Speaker 3: I've seen, I think it continues, and I you know,

68
00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,160
Speaker 3: there's other reasons why I love this staff.

69
00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,400
Speaker 6: It's one of the smartest staffs I think in the NFL.

70
00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:26,840
Speaker 3: A lot of continuity there as well, but just you know,

71
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,600
Speaker 3: their their use of motion for wide receiver sets, play action,

72
00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,360
Speaker 3: just everything they do is smart on both ends, and

73
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:35,640
Speaker 3: you can you can look over the past two seasons

74
00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,160
Speaker 3: after the bye week. I mean they put Dable up

75
00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,640
Speaker 3: in the box two years ago. Last year, their defensive

76
00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,600
Speaker 3: adjustments were amazing. They changed some of the alignments of

77
00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,760
Speaker 3: the linebackers and their defense went and their offensive line

78
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,360
Speaker 3: really geled in the second half of the season. This year,

79
00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,600
Speaker 3: their bye week is week seven, so I expect the similar. Okay,

80
00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,960
Speaker 3: let's tweak this and an upswing in the second half again.

81
00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,000
Speaker 3: You know, you get starlu Tailey back, and I think

82
00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:02,600
Speaker 3: that's huge because he really eat as that one technique.

83
00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,360
Speaker 3: He can move ed Oliver over. They address some of

84
00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,320
Speaker 3: their you know, they had a lack of edge rush.

85
00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,560
Speaker 3: I know Jerry Hughes is still productive, but they needed

86
00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:13,960
Speaker 3: some more some more juice. And I'm a big fan

87
00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,560
Speaker 3: of Ross and I think they're deeper there, so guys

88
00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:18,920
Speaker 3: like Jerry Hughes are gonna not have to play as

89
00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:22,600
Speaker 3: many snaps. You know, I know their safeties are getting older,

90
00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:24,919
Speaker 3: but you have a Number one corner in his prime,

91
00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,880
Speaker 3: all those weapons. There's just so much to like about

92
00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:32,680
Speaker 3: this staff and Josh Allen's progression. I mean, he's proved

93
00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,440
Speaker 3: everyone wrong. I think that this team is on the upswing.

94
00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:38,479
Speaker 3: They're a legit Super Bowl contender. It's one of the

95
00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:42,440
Speaker 3: few teams actually show value in they're over. But there's

96
00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,280
Speaker 3: you know, there's a lot of uncertainty in this in

97
00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:47,680
Speaker 3: this division, which we'll get to, you know, quarterback uncertainty.

98
00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:51,000
Speaker 3: So I don't really love betting the win total. I

99
00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:52,960
Speaker 3: took a shot with them. I found fourteen to one

100
00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:55,839
Speaker 3: to win the Super Bowl. I think anything twelve to

101
00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,600
Speaker 3: one are over. I think the Bills are going to

102
00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:00,760
Speaker 3: be a player. I think they're gonn the coaches that's

103
00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:02,000
Speaker 3: going to learn a lot from what they did in

104
00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:03,960
Speaker 3: the playoffs. I think, for as smart as they are,

105
00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,000
Speaker 3: they kind of got a little gun shy against the Chiefs.

106
00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,200
Speaker 3: They you know, but that's a big learning experience. I

107
00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:09,720
Speaker 3: think they're going to be right there when it's all

108
00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:10,520
Speaker 3: said and done.

109
00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:12,400
Speaker 2: So, John, where are you on this eleven and a

110
00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,800
Speaker 2: half for Buffalo at bet MGM. It's juiced minus one

111
00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:17,239
Speaker 2: forty five to the under.

112
00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm projecting them right around eleven and a

113
00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:21,800
Speaker 5: half games. I think eleven and a half is a

114
00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,360
Speaker 5: coin flip. So I do see some value on the

115
00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,719
Speaker 5: over here at plus one twenty stuck. You mentioned it,

116
00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,800
Speaker 5: but I don't expect too much regression from Josh Allen

117
00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,360
Speaker 5: this year because because of the continuity, they were able

118
00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:35,840
Speaker 5: to keep Brian Dabele. I think their deep playoff run

119
00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,560
Speaker 5: kind of helped them retain him. I know the Chargers

120
00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:40,960
Speaker 5: wanted to potentially sign as a head coach, but he's

121
00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,120
Speaker 5: He's still there this year. I think that's huge for

122
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:45,640
Speaker 5: Josh Allen. I think Dabile really put him in a

123
00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:49,039
Speaker 5: position to succeed. Last year, they had the second highest

124
00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,320
Speaker 5: early down pass rate in gain neutral situations. Josh Allen

125
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:55,240
Speaker 5: had the most play action dropbacks last year. I think

126
00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,240
Speaker 5: that was huge for his year three breakout. I meant

127
00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,760
Speaker 5: obviously Stefan Diggs. You know, he has four quality wide

128
00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,640
Speaker 5: receivers right now and they play the second most for

129
00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,520
Speaker 5: wide formation. So I think that all those elements are

130
00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:09,560
Speaker 5: still there. So that's why I don't see much of

131
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,280
Speaker 5: a drop off for Allen this year. You know, when

132
00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,200
Speaker 5: it comes to their thirteen and three record last year,

133
00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,520
Speaker 5: if you look at their plus minus differential Pythagori and

134
00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,120
Speaker 5: win expectations, it was around ten and a half. So

135
00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,320
Speaker 5: it looks like they may have gotten a little bit lucky,

136
00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,599
Speaker 5: but I like looking at percentage of game time leading,

137
00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,240
Speaker 5: tide and trailing, and if you look at that those splits,

138
00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:33,040
Speaker 5: they actually played like a thirteen point one win team.

139
00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,080
Speaker 5: So I think maybe if they got off to an

140
00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,200
Speaker 5: early lead, they kind of let teams come back. So

141
00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:40,080
Speaker 5: this team played a little bit better than the thirteen

142
00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,520
Speaker 5: and three record less year. I love getting them over

143
00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:44,760
Speaker 5: eleven and a half. Like we'll talk about the rest

144
00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:46,840
Speaker 5: of the division. It could be getting stronger, but I

145
00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:48,800
Speaker 5: still think the Bills are the cream of the crop

146
00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:49,800
Speaker 5: when it comes to this division.

147
00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:53,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd also add this is the team that won

148
00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,560
Speaker 3: its division, that made a run in the playoffs, won

149
00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:57,160
Speaker 3: its division.

150
00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:57,760
Speaker 4: This year.

151
00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,440
Speaker 3: I have them, based on my power ratings, the second

152
00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,880
Speaker 3: easiest schedule in the NFL, So you know you usually

153
00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,239
Speaker 3: you'll have a tougher schedule here, that's not the case.

154
00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:10,480
Speaker 3: And I mean Josh Allen two of the criticism going

155
00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:14,440
Speaker 3: into last year against man defenses against pressure from an

156
00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:16,920
Speaker 3: EPA per play perspective, he went from twenty seventh to

157
00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:21,160
Speaker 3: fourth against man, from twenty fifth to fifth against four

158
00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,240
Speaker 3: or more guys rushing, so all of his numbers across

159
00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,040
Speaker 3: the board improved. I think it's sustainable. You know, you

160
00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,480
Speaker 3: lose John Brown, but you had Emmanuel Sanders. There's weapons everywhere,

161
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:32,880
Speaker 3: and Davile's just a brilliant play caller. This is a

162
00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:35,960
Speaker 3: smart scheming staff, a lot of continuity.

163
00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:38,360
Speaker 6: There's a lot to like about the Buffalo Bills.

164
00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:40,880
Speaker 2: Yes, Beuck, I was just going to bring up that

165
00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:44,480
Speaker 2: schedule because I think we're late enough into the you know,

166
00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,400
Speaker 2: the preseason at least where you start to look at

167
00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:48,160
Speaker 2: the schedule and you know things could happen, there could

168
00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,440
Speaker 2: be injuries down the stretch, but you still got to

169
00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:53,360
Speaker 2: look at the schedule and say, wow, this is not

170
00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:57,240
Speaker 2: really that Dunton at all. I mean we've got Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington,

171
00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,800
Speaker 2: Houston case will be a tough one in Tennessee, both

172
00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:05,560
Speaker 2: on the road, but then Miami, Jacksonville, Jets, Indie Saints, Patriots, Bucks.

173
00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,640
Speaker 2: That's a tough one. Panthers, Patriots and Falcons and Jets.

174
00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,040
Speaker 2: So like, really you have those games against the two

175
00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,920
Speaker 2: Super Bowl teams, a game in Tennessee, and outside of

176
00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:20,040
Speaker 2: those three, I mean there's thirteen very winnable games you're

177
00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,320
Speaker 2: not gonna see, like a complete drop off unless you know,

178
00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:25,240
Speaker 2: barring injury to Josh Allen or something like that.

179
00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,560
Speaker 3: Let's not talk about Michigan. That is my nightmare with

180
00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,600
Speaker 3: my super Bowl future AFC Divisional round. Bortle now and

181
00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:33,319
Speaker 3: goes out and Mitch Bortles comes in.

182
00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:35,280
Speaker 1: You've just been bortled.

183
00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:37,520
Speaker 3: But yeah, and another way to look at the Bills

184
00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:38,920
Speaker 3: is if you look at the set after they're by

185
00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,920
Speaker 3: their interior offensive line and their defense was a mess

186
00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:44,160
Speaker 3: the first half of the year. All they fixed all

187
00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,720
Speaker 3: of that and there was still injuries on the defensive

188
00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:48,840
Speaker 3: side of the ball with Milana who is now healthy,

189
00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,960
Speaker 3: you know the starting nose tackle was didn't play last year.

190
00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:53,800
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm high on the Bills.

191
00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:58,480
Speaker 2: So as we continue our AFC Win Totals podcasts sponsored

192
00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:02,320
Speaker 2: by Bett MGM, go to an up and coming team

193
00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,439
Speaker 2: I think in this division and that is the Miami Dolphins.

194
00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:11,800
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins at BETMGM.

195
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,600
Speaker 2: Their win total nine and a half, the overjuice to

196
00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:17,120
Speaker 2: minus one forty Sean.

197
00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:18,280
Speaker 4: I'll start with you this time.

198
00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,280
Speaker 2: Are you what are you thinking on Miami coming into

199
00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:23,679
Speaker 2: year two with two A tone of by loo.

200
00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:26,920
Speaker 5: Whether they go over this nine and a half win

201
00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:30,720
Speaker 5: total all depends on to improving in year two. You know,

202
00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:34,240
Speaker 5: I like to look at various metrics for quarterbacks and

203
00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:37,920
Speaker 5: to he finished right around like twenty ninth to thirty

204
00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,319
Speaker 5: second for most of them out of forty three quarterbacks

205
00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,320
Speaker 5: that qualified last year, which was not great, but if

206
00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:49,439
Speaker 5: you compare them to rookies ever since twenty ten, he

207
00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:53,040
Speaker 5: was actually above average, you know, finishing anywhere from thirteenth

208
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,200
Speaker 5: to eighteenth. And these metrics I like to look at,

209
00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,880
Speaker 5: so you know, there is some hope there and I

210
00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,520
Speaker 5: think we can forgive him for various things. For twenty twenty,

211
00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,400
Speaker 5: you know, he was coming off that major hip injury.

212
00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,000
Speaker 5: They didn't really have much of an off season, which

213
00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:10,360
Speaker 5: could be tougher for rookie. It's possible. The offense under

214
00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:14,040
Speaker 5: Chang Gaily was Taylor more towards Ryan Fitzpatrick, so throwing

215
00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,680
Speaker 5: two out there mid season was not great. You know,

216
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,439
Speaker 5: they added Will Fuller Jalen Waller. We love those guys

217
00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,440
Speaker 5: for fantasy. If Tua doesn't have a year two leap,

218
00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:25,000
Speaker 5: then it's a major concern. So I think if you're

219
00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,840
Speaker 5: expecting your two leap, go with the over here. I

220
00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,240
Speaker 5: think this total is a bit high. They do have

221
00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:33,320
Speaker 5: the easiest strength of schedule according to my Power ratings,

222
00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:35,480
Speaker 5: so that's probably why it is a bit higher. But

223
00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:37,319
Speaker 5: I still lean on the under here. You know, I

224
00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:39,920
Speaker 5: need to see it from Tua first, and this offensive

225
00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,040
Speaker 5: line is a major question mark.

226
00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,079
Speaker 2: So it was waiting for you to mention that.

227
00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, so you know, if guy, like to some of

228
00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,240
Speaker 5: the reports at camp, he has been great under pressure,

229
00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,199
Speaker 5: we'll see, but this offensive line could be an issue.

230
00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,080
Speaker 5: And Plus are coming off a season where they had

231
00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:58,760
Speaker 5: a plus nine turnover differential. Obviously, you know expect them

232
00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,160
Speaker 5: to be a little bit better and department with you know,

233
00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:03,640
Speaker 5: arguably be the best quarterback doing the league. They played

234
00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:05,320
Speaker 5: a ton of man covers, but still it's gonna be

235
00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,760
Speaker 5: hard to repeat that plus nine differential this year, so

236
00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:10,559
Speaker 5: they could take a step back. So that's what I'm

237
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:11,600
Speaker 5: leaning towards the under here.

238
00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,080
Speaker 3: I love the under here. I think you would know

239
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,080
Speaker 3: right about it. I'm just not I'm not buying into

240
00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,439
Speaker 3: two yet. I think he's going to be great, he

241
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:20,600
Speaker 3: has all the tools. I don't think he's there yet.

242
00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:22,840
Speaker 3: And this is as Sean said, this is you know,

243
00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,079
Speaker 3: last year was a COVID year. And he was coming

244
00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:28,080
Speaker 3: off surgery right, and he was rotating in and out

245
00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,000
Speaker 3: of the lineup with Fitzpatrick checking down way too much,

246
00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,560
Speaker 3: just not looking comfortable. Part of that is the offensive line,

247
00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:36,040
Speaker 3: so they got these weapons that can stretch the field.

248
00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:38,600
Speaker 3: Is even gonna have enough time? Is he actually gonna

249
00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:41,760
Speaker 3: throw downfield? He was five point three air yards per completion,

250
00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,679
Speaker 3: just a lot of checkdowns and timid throws. So I

251
00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,320
Speaker 3: think that they're a year away. You know, this young

252
00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:51,400
Speaker 3: offensive line, which was just rookies all over and young kids.

253
00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:53,880
Speaker 3: I think, you know, after this year two, it gets

254
00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,320
Speaker 3: a full year as a starter. I think next year

255
00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:00,920
Speaker 3: is the year. And the defense benefited as as as

256
00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,160
Speaker 3: Criner said, just a ton of Turnoverlook, they caused a

257
00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:07,560
Speaker 3: turnover on sixteen percent of opponents drives, which led the

258
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,439
Speaker 3: NFL Elite Special teams. I'm not sure if they can

259
00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:12,679
Speaker 3: repeat that. They do have an easy schedule, and every

260
00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:15,480
Speaker 3: team in this division does get nine home games, and

261
00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,000
Speaker 3: Miami does get a one of their road games in London.

262
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 3: But one of the things to keep in mind is

263
00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:25,679
Speaker 3: if you expect to get better as the year goes on,

264
00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:28,559
Speaker 3: they don't have a bide a week fourteen, and it's

265
00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,439
Speaker 3: a pretty exhausting early season schedule. You're going to New

266
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:34,840
Speaker 3: England and home against Buffalo, then out to Vegas, then

267
00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:37,920
Speaker 3: back home for the Colts, then you know, at Tampa,

268
00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,319
Speaker 3: then you're heading over to London, back to Lenso and

269
00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:42,160
Speaker 3: then you don't have a byte a week fourteen. So

270
00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:45,559
Speaker 3: I also don't know what the philosophy will.

271
00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:46,360
Speaker 6: Be on offense.

272
00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:47,839
Speaker 3: I know they got rid of chan Galli and a

273
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,280
Speaker 3: lot of people like that, but they have two offensive coordinators.

274
00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:53,800
Speaker 3: One was a run game coordinator and one was a

275
00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:57,920
Speaker 3: X tight ends coach. I don't then Charlie Fries apparently

276
00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,760
Speaker 3: the one that's talking to to to us. So I

277
00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:02,480
Speaker 3: don't know what the philosophy is or if there's going

278
00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,800
Speaker 3: to be you know, some kind of butting of heads there.

279
00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,400
Speaker 3: But and the defense, I think fortunate. They lost some

280
00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,320
Speaker 3: pieces that I think are important, including van Ney. I

281
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,520
Speaker 3: don't think they'll be as good, and they do struggle

282
00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:15,960
Speaker 3: against the run, and you know, if you look at

283
00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,000
Speaker 3: some of the metrics, they were about an average defense,

284
00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,400
Speaker 3: you know, yards per drive about average, but turnovers just

285
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:22,120
Speaker 3: really helped them out.

286
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:23,520
Speaker 6: I don't think they get that same luck.

287
00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,760
Speaker 3: Fitzpatrick you know, Fitzpatrick the belly out this year, and

288
00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:29,160
Speaker 3: you want to add you want to add another lucky

289
00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:31,640
Speaker 3: thing Fitzpatrick last year, and we'll get to Washington.

290
00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:33,560
Speaker 6: Number one in the NFL under.

291
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:38,079
Speaker 1: Pressure fits magic magic.

292
00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,080
Speaker 3: That's usually my home stat. So I mean, they just

293
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,600
Speaker 3: some of the throws. Miami was a very fortunate team

294
00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:45,640
Speaker 3: last year. I know they're well coached. I love Flores,

295
00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:47,880
Speaker 3: They're headed in the right direction. I just think they're

296
00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:50,240
Speaker 3: a year away. I think they struggle to get to

297
00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:50,839
Speaker 3: nine wins.

298
00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:52,080
Speaker 6: I like this under.

299
00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:54,960
Speaker 3: I make it like eight six, eight seven, So I

300
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,280
Speaker 3: like under nine and a half.

301
00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:00,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, two A ton of Ilo is puef passer rating

302
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:04,800
Speaker 2: under pressures thirty nine point five. That's thirty fourth in

303
00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:09,280
Speaker 2: the league. When he throws a touchdown against pressure this year,

304
00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:13,040
Speaker 2: it'll be his first of his career. So that concerns

305
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,480
Speaker 2: me with the offensive line because I think you're projecting

306
00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:21,680
Speaker 2: a year like a big leap for Jackson and Davis

307
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,440
Speaker 2: to really be formidable tackles on the outside. I think

308
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,120
Speaker 2: you still have question marks at center. There's really nowhere

309
00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:32,000
Speaker 2: on the line that you feel great about. So that's

310
00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,360
Speaker 2: one thing I think when you're kind of going back

311
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,120
Speaker 2: and forth on these win totals because I certainly think

312
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,360
Speaker 2: Miami has a lot of upside. I just don't know

313
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,040
Speaker 2: maybe if win win total is the right bet for them.

314
00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:43,520
Speaker 2: I think, you know, betting them to do something like

315
00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:46,160
Speaker 2: make the playoffs or you know, even like a long

316
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:49,000
Speaker 2: shot division winner might be better because I think they

317
00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,560
Speaker 2: have upside, But I just don't know if I trust

318
00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,760
Speaker 2: like the median projection for teams with old line struggles.

319
00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:57,440
Speaker 2: It's the same reason I'm you know, I will talk

320
00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,240
Speaker 2: about in another pot, but I'm not in on.

321
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 4: The Giants anyone like that.

322
00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,720
Speaker 2: Like, it's just when a team is an Olne issue,

323
00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,360
Speaker 2: it's the thing that I feel like never gets properly

324
00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:09,120
Speaker 2: accounted for, and a lot of projections and in a

325
00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,600
Speaker 2: lot of the market. So yeah, Miami's not not one

326
00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,160
Speaker 2: that I'm touching for the over, but I do think

327
00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,040
Speaker 2: the team is going in the right direction.

328
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,600
Speaker 1: New England Patriots fellas.

329
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:25,440
Speaker 3: I am sick of this, Okay, I can't stand much

330
00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:25,880
Speaker 3: more of this.

331
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,280
Speaker 6: It's a joke. It's a joke.

332
00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,160
Speaker 2: Tom Brady goes wins the Super Bowl with another team,

333
00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,800
Speaker 2: they get left with Cam Newton, but now they got

334
00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:35,280
Speaker 2: Mac Jones and.

335
00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,000
Speaker 3: Don't be talking to down because I don't know anything

336
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:37,720
Speaker 3: about quarterback.

337
00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:39,040
Speaker 4: You understand, stuck.

338
00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,520
Speaker 2: The Patriots are also at nine and a half, but

339
00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,440
Speaker 2: unlike Miami, the Patriots win total is actually juice to

340
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:50,280
Speaker 2: the under at minus one fifteen, so slight juice. Any Like,

341
00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,160
Speaker 2: what are your thoughts on on New England at nine

342
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:52,640
Speaker 2: and a half?

343
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a it's a fascinating team, and it's one

344
00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,040
Speaker 3: of these COVID situations where it's unpressed and there they're

345
00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 3: getting a lot of players back. You know that opted

346
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,560
Speaker 3: out that you see throughout the NFL. They went on

347
00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,960
Speaker 3: a shopping spree. Dollar Bill went out. Usually they build

348
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,680
Speaker 3: through the draft. They've been awful in the draft for

349
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,760
Speaker 3: the last five plus years. They went out and just

350
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 3: spend money. They bringing John John Whu Smith, Henry Brown, Agalo.

351
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 3: I mean it goes on and on, and Judah and

352
00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,200
Speaker 3: van neyd you know Mills. I mean they went on

353
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,160
Speaker 3: a spending spree. He could have expected. I mean they

354
00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,080
Speaker 3: were bad that year. Their defense was bad. The offense

355
00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,000
Speaker 3: was bad, but they lost Brady. They had, you know

356
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,000
Speaker 3: a number of opt outs on the defensive side of

357
00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:35,880
Speaker 3: the ball. I think it's a tough team to crack

358
00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,840
Speaker 3: because of all these new pieces. You know, Belichick will

359
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,120
Speaker 3: have them together as much as any coach can. But

360
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 3: I think it really all comes down to three three positions,

361
00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 3: right Stefan Gilmour unhappy, He's you know, getting older, He's

362
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,440
Speaker 3: getting to that age where a corner drop off. So

363
00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 3: if he can remain elite because I think jac Jackson's

364
00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 3: actually one of the most overrated corners in the NFL.

365
00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 3: Gets a ton of picks, very fortunate, but I mean

366
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,000
Speaker 3: this is a guy last year gave up I think

367
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,640
Speaker 3: four touchdowns and four games is the number one corner.

368
00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,520
Speaker 6: Gilmore gave up four in the last.

369
00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:13,440
Speaker 3: Thirty seven before that, So I don't if Gilmore can stay.

370
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 6: Elite and play.

371
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:18,359
Speaker 3: If Brown at that right you know that right tackle

372
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 3: position is motivated back in the that offensive line is

373
00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:22,800
Speaker 3: going to be great.

374
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:24,080
Speaker 6: They're going to be able to run the ball.

375
00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,359
Speaker 3: They have great tight ends now, So it all comes

376
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,720
Speaker 3: back to the quarterback position. If you believe that, well,

377
00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:32,280
Speaker 3: number one, if you believe that Matt Jones is going

378
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:34,919
Speaker 3: to end up starting, and you're a big Mac Jones buyer,

379
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,440
Speaker 3: I'm not for year one, then you would obviously buy

380
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 3: this Patriots team. The defense will be good. They upgraded

381
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,280
Speaker 3: the front seven. The secondary regardless will be good. But

382
00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,160
Speaker 3: if you believe that Cam Newton will start, was last

383
00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 3: year more to do with an injury or is Cam

384
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:52,120
Speaker 3: Newton now washed and passed his prime? And it doesn't

385
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:54,200
Speaker 3: matter how much help you got in the passing game,

386
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:55,960
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter how well you can run it. Teams

387
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:57,840
Speaker 3: are going to stack the box and that's really going

388
00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,919
Speaker 3: to limit their ceiling. So this is a team if

389
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,280
Speaker 3: everything comes together and works, and you know, say Cam

390
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 3: Newton was hurt last year now is healthy and you

391
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,800
Speaker 3: get a flashback to some you know, prime Cam, the

392
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,119
Speaker 3: upside for this team is huge. So you know, I

393
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 3: don't I'm I project them at nine nine wins, so

394
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:18,919
Speaker 3: I don't really see any value in the wind total.

395
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:21,040
Speaker 3: And I love the Bills, so I'm not going to

396
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,440
Speaker 3: do this, but I could see the argument for taking them,

397
00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,679
Speaker 3: you know, to win the division, or you know, taking

398
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:30,160
Speaker 3: a flyer on them to win the AFC. So there's

399
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 3: a lot of upside of all these parts work. But

400
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,280
Speaker 3: it's a lot of things that you're we're saying if about.

401
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,240
Speaker 2: So you have the Patriots at nine and the Dolphins

402
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,720
Speaker 2: at like eight seven, So you're actually projecting a Patriots

403
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,439
Speaker 2: number two for the division. Like the market is on,

404
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 2: is Miami number two? You're New England number two?

405
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 3: But I'm so much higher on the Bills that I

406
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 3: that I don't see value and I think the Bills

407
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 3: are just so much further ahead than New England.

408
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 6: And I should admit that part of my Bills projection

409
00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 6: being higher is that I'm lower on Miami. In New England.

410
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 6: There's some correlations since they play so much. But get Garner.

411
00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:07,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I have Miami number two here despite you know,

412
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,720
Speaker 5: I have the Patriots power rated a little bit higher,

413
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 5: but Miami, like I said, they have the easiest strength

414
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,440
Speaker 5: of schedule, so that's my win total for them is

415
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 5: a bit higher either way. If you if you favor

416
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 5: either the Dolphins or Patriots to finish second, I like

417
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 5: that bet MGM has a straight forecast where you could

418
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,159
Speaker 5: take you know, Bills and Patriots to finish one and

419
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 5: two at plus two forty. I think that might be

420
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:32,919
Speaker 5: the way to go because I think the Jets have

421
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 5: the fourth slot locked up, and then it'll be either

422
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 5: the Patriots or Dolphins finishing second with the Bills in first,

423
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,880
Speaker 5: so that's kind of the way I've been approaching this division.

424
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 5: But yeah, the Patriots should be a lot better this year.

425
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 5: You know. They they did spend a lot of money,

426
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,160
Speaker 5: over one hundred and seventy million, but I thought they

427
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 5: overpaid for a ton of players. Not only did they

428
00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 5: overpay for John new Smith, they also overpaid for Hunter Henry.

429
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,680
Speaker 5: So the offense will be better, but it's still gonna

430
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:04,359
Speaker 5: be fairly mediocre. You know, I think having mac Jones

431
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,200
Speaker 5: there does raise the floor of this offense. If Cam

432
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 5: Newton is washed, I think mac Jones can be, you know,

433
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 5: solid as a rookie, so it's gonna at least provide

434
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,880
Speaker 5: them with a higher floor. And you know, last year

435
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 5: they missed the second most games if you factor in

436
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 5: you know, the COVID opt outs, so you know they're

437
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 5: gonna see better injury luck, so to speak, this year,

438
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 5: So it's it's gonna be a much better team. But

439
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 5: nine and a half just seems a little too high,

440
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 5: So I am leaning the under here, although I don't

441
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 5: like betting on the under for you know, both the

442
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,280
Speaker 5: Dolphins and Pats. I think you kind of have to

443
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,679
Speaker 5: pick one, and that's why I'm kind of leaning on

444
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 5: the Dolphins under right now and passing on the Patriots total.

445
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Patriots are a stay away from me because

446
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 2: I'm not betting the over on a team that's gonna

447
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 2: be quarterback by either a guy who averaged one hundred

448
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,840
Speaker 2: and seventy seven pass yards per game last year or

449
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 2: a rookie. Like it's just I'm not gonna do it.

450
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 2: But I do think They're defense is gonna be excellent.

451
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 2: I do think their O line will be decent to

452
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 2: very good actually, So I really my issue is with

453
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 2: the skill players and New England Belichick. They can probably

454
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 2: win without the best group of skill players, so you know,

455
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,680
Speaker 2: that's kind of working in their favor. But I think

456
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 2: this is a mediocre team until proven otherwise. I think

457
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 2: it's gonna be really good on defense, but I don't

458
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 2: see Cam bouncing back. I think Cam bouncing back is

459
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 2: maybe you know, two hundred and twenty yards per game

460
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 2: instead of you know, one hundred and eighty, and maybe

461
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 2: he actually throws double digit touchdowns this year. So I

462
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,199
Speaker 2: think Matt Jones, you're kind of betting on him if

463
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,159
Speaker 2: you're going over. I think he gives them a higher

464
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 2: ceiling at quarterback just because he's a better pure passer.

465
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 2: I think the offense and the acquisitions were kind of

466
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 2: made to tear it to him. But this is more

467
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: a team that I think I want to bet week

468
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 2: to week, just bet. I feel like there's gonna be

469
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 2: a lot of under Patriot unders, so I'm just gonna

470
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 2: bet them that way.

471
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 4: I think the win totals will stay away.

472
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 2: Final team in eight East is the New York Jets.

473
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 1: New York Jets, Oh no, we suck again.

474
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 2: Ben MGM has their win total at six and a half.

475
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,239
Speaker 2: The under is up to minus one sixty. This was

476
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 2: one of my favorite unders earlier in the offseason, but

477
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:21,679
Speaker 2: it was not juice like this. Now it seems like

478
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 2: everyone's kind of caught on, so there's probably no value here.

479
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 2: But Sean, how are you feeling about this Jets team?

480
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:30,360
Speaker 2: At six and a half, it's not a high bar

481
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 2: to clear, but they just lost lost in I mean

482
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:35,400
Speaker 2: things aren't looking at great.

483
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 5: Yeah, they're not looking that great. I'm projecting them closer

484
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 5: to six. So when you factor in the juice, this

485
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 5: is a pretty good line, I think. So I'm staying away.

486
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,239
Speaker 5: But the needle is pointing up on the Jets as

487
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 5: an organization. You know, moving on from Adam Gase to

488
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 5: Robert Sala is a huge upgrade.

489
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 4: In my opinion.

490
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 5: You know, Zach Wilson has the potential to be a

491
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 5: really good quarterback. I love that they added Corey Davis

492
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,919
Speaker 5: and Elijah More in the draft to give him some

493
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 5: weapons to work with. But you know, he was a

494
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 5: little bit of a late bloomer in college, so I

495
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 5: think his rookie season will be up and down. But

496
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 5: you know, overall, I love the direction this franchise is going.

497
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 5: You know, the Jets defensive front was loaded until unfortunately

498
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 5: Carl Lawson had that season ending injury, and I think

499
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 5: that's going to really hurt the defense. You know, they're

500
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,640
Speaker 5: really weak at corner, so you know, Saula is gonna

501
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 5: play you know, a lot of zone heavy cover three

502
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 5: defense to kind of take the pressure off them, but

503
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,239
Speaker 5: you do need a good pass rush. But you know,

504
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 5: with Carl Lawson on the shelf, now, I think this

505
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 5: team's going to really struggle. If anybody can figure out,

506
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 5: maybe it's Robert Sola, but I'm staying away from this

507
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 5: win total. I think it's it's correctly priced and like

508
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 5: I said, there, they're probably a lot to finish last

509
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 5: in this division. So I've been kind of attacking the

510
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 5: straight forecast of Bills, Dolphins, Pats and Jets. I think

511
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 5: it's plus two fifty. I think it's going to be

512
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 5: a pretty straightforward division that in that regard.

513
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, I agree.

514
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a rough year for Jets.

515
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 3: Actually project them at five three. Oh the good, the

516
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 3: good that they have. They have a bye week six.

517
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:07,880
Speaker 3: This is how hard it is for me to say

518
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,679
Speaker 3: good things about them. They have nine home games in

519
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 3: one of their road games is in London. I do

520
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 3: agree that this is headed in the right direction, getting

521
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 3: Gays out there, getting solid in but they are a

522
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 3: massive Not only do you have a rookie quarterback, there

523
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 3: are massive scheme changes. I mean, you're gonna have solikum

524
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 3: in with a four to three wide nine aggressive defense,

525
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 3: and you need great defensive ends to get pressure.

526
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 6: Who's started without loss ins out.

527
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 3: Thirty three year old Vinnie Curry is gonna start at

528
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 3: defensive end and be required to get pressure.

529
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 6: I mean CJ. Moseley's coming back to.

530
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 3: Play the mic. He hasn't played in two years. I mean,

531
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 3: who knows what you're getting from there, and they have

532
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 3: the worst corners in the NFL, so you know you're

533
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 3: not getting pressure and you don't have corners, which is

534
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 3: a recipe for disaster. The offensive line should be a

535
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 3: little better. Still not gonna be good. It's not great

536
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 3: for a rookie quarterback. Scheme change on the offensive side

537
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 3: as well. So I think that they're headed in the

538
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 3: right direction. But I think it's gonna be a long

539
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 3: year for the Jets.

540
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,919
Speaker 2: You know what could actually decide their win total is

541
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 2: the last two weeks of the season. They play the

542
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 2: Bucks and then at Buffalo. So if those teams just

543
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 2: kind of cruise and they can be rer wresting guys,

544
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 2: maybe the Jets get there. But if the Jets are like,

545
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: let's say two wins away or something coming down, even

546
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 2: one win away coming down that stretch, and Buffalo in

547
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,920
Speaker 2: Tampa are playing for real, I mean, that's it's gonna

548
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 2: be tough either way. So not a not one that

549
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 2: I recommend. I love the under earlier in the offseason.

550
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 2: It's juiced a little high, but if I had to go,

551
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 2: I'd still go under here. There's just so much new

552
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 2: when you talk about a new quarterback, you know, new

553
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: pieces to throw to, a new defense that got weakened.

554
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 2: I mean, there's just so much. These teams usually take

555
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 2: time to gel, even if it is going in the

556
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,679
Speaker 2: right direction. I love Zach Wilson. I think he's a

557
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 2: talented guy, but there's just too much. And let's face it,

558
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 2: every change from Adam Gase is by default and upgrade,

559
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 2: so we can't even fully I mean we could. We

560
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 2: would be saying this about pretty much any coach the

561
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 2: Jets could have hired, like it doesn't even matter, like Sala.

562
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 2: Yeah he's good in San Francisco, hopefully.

563
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 4: He'll be good here. But bottom line is this team.

564
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 2: Adam Gay set them back and they're gonna it's gonna

565
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 2: take some time to climb out. So I'd still feel

566
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 2: more confident about betting them under even at the juice,

567
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 2: than a team like Miami or a team Mike New England.

568
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 7: This is Action Network podcast producer Matt Mitchell here to

569
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 7: tell you our friends at bet MGM have a great

570
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,479
Speaker 7: new sign up offer for our listeners, a six hundred

571
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 7: dollars risk free first bet. Here's how it works. If

572
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,679
Speaker 7: you don't already have an account at bet mgm. Just

573
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 7: sign up, make your first deposit, and place that initial wager.

574
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 7: If the bet wins, you get all the money. If

575
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 7: it doesn't win, bet mgm will refund you in free

576
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 7: bets up to six hundred dollars. It's that simple. Just

577
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,360
Speaker 7: click on the link in this episode description to get started.

578
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 7: Bet mgm has been a great podcast partner, and they've

579
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 7: got all the features gamblers like us love, like live

580
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 7: betting and daily odds boosts plast. They're compatible with Betsinc.

581
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 7: So when you place a wager at bet mgm, that

582
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 7: bet can automatically be tracked in your action app. So

583
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 7: open an account today and make your first bet risk

584
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 7: free up to six hundred dollars. Just click on the

585
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 7: link in this episode description to get started. Must be

586
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 7: twenty one or older and physically located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana,

587
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 7: West Virginia, and Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada. For Pennsylvania. Please

588
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 7: gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one eight one hundred and

589
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 7: two two forty seven hundred in Colorado and Nevada. One

590
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 7: eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania. In West Virginia

591
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 7: one eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana one

592
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 7: eight hundred and two seven zero seven to one one

593
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 7: seven in Michigan one eight, one hundred and eight nine

594
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 7: nine seven eight nine in Tennessee one eight hundred bets

595
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 7: off in Iowa, Virginia. That'sink not available in Nevada. Thanks

596
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 7: for listening. Now back to the show.

597
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 2: Let's go to the AFC North where I'm gonna start

598
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 2: with the Browns.

599
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns, Cleveland.

600
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 3: Rocks, Cleveland Rocks, Cleveland Rocks, Cleveland Rocks.

601
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,880
Speaker 2: Their win total is ten and a half, even rejuiced

602
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 2: on both sides. But Stuck, what do you think of

603
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: the Browns? Are you buying into the improved defense and

604
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 2: Odell Beckham coming back and all that good stuff.

605
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Browns are a big regression Acadeedy.

606
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 3: I loved, you know what they're doing, kind of like

607
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 3: the Jets, you know, I think it's the right It

608
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 3: was the right coach and Stefanskin.

609
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 6: They actually made the right higress up and we saw

610
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 6: that last year.

611
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 3: It's an organization that was down in the dumps that's

612
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 3: now in the upward trajectory. But this is a team

613
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 3: that got pretty lucky last year to go eleven and five.

614
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 3: They were outscored by eleven on the season. I think

615
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 3: from a DVA perspective, they were the second worst eleven

616
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 3: and five team since nineteen eighty five. So I mean

617
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 3: their pethagoram wins. I think we're seven seven seven eight,

618
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 3: So this is a team that definitely got fortunate. I

619
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 3: like some of the additions they made on defense. It's

620
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,719
Speaker 3: still a defense that I think is going to struggle.

621
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 3: They're gonna need a lot to happen on the defensive

622
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 3: side of the ball. For you know, can margin the

623
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 3: guy like Marvin Wilson step up on the defensive line?

624
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 3: You know, can you have Delpit and Greedy Williams, you

625
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 3: know these LSU guys who have been hurt.

626
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 6: Can they step up?

627
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 3: Because you're gonna need either you know, Newsome in their

628
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 3: first round draft pick or Greedy at one of the

629
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 3: cornerback spots, which is which is a weak area. So

630
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,479
Speaker 3: I think the defense is going to struggle. The offense

631
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 3: is going to put up points. They really put Baker

632
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 3: Mayfield in opportunities to succeed. They move them out of

633
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 3: the pocket, they get them moving. You could see how

634
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 3: much more comfortable he is in that scheme. It's a

635
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 3: really well trained staff and the offensive line is excellent.

636
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 3: They have great facts, so they're going to score, but

637
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,239
Speaker 3: they're going to also give up points. I think they

638
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 3: were a bit fortunate last year. I can't believe I'm

639
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 3: saying this, but just the hype on the Browns I

640
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 3: think is a little too much. And this wind total,

641
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 3: I think is inflated. I'm closer to ten, and I

642
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 3: could see how you could argue that it should be

643
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 3: even a little lower. So I would lean under easy schedule,

644
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 3: and they do have nine home games, but it's probably

645
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 3: a stay away from me.

646
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 6: But I think they're a bit over inflated. Here.

647
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 4: What do you think about the Browns?

648
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, similar to Stucky, where I mean, I don't really

649
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 5: have many bad things to say at all about them,

650
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 5: which is tough to take the under when you say that,

651
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 5: But I think there is a little bit of value

652
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 5: on the under here, Stuck. You mentioned it, but they

653
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 5: managed to win eleven games last year despite minus eleven

654
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 5: point differential. Their tag wins was seven point seven year correct, Stucky.

655
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 5: I like I said, I like looking at the game time,

656
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,479
Speaker 5: leading trailing and tied, and when you look at that,

657
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,239
Speaker 5: their expected wins was closer to ten. So maybe they

658
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 5: weren't as lucky as we think. I love the moves

659
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 5: they made on defense. I think this is one of

660
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 5: the most complete rosters in the NFL, and last year

661
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 5: they benefited from having the second easiest schedule. I think

662
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 5: that that tailor's into the the scheme that Kevin Stefanski wanted,

663
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 5: more run heavy scheme, limit the turnos from Baker. But

664
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 5: now that the schedules closer to the league average, I

665
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 5: have it as rinked as nineteenth. You know, it might

666
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 5: be a little bit tougher splooding this year, So all

667
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 5: those things considered, I'm leaning towards the under here. Despite

668
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 5: just you know, I do think this roster is complete

669
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 5: and I don't really have anything bad to say about them,

670
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 5: but the numbers don't lie, and when I simulate the

671
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 5: season ten thousand times, I'm showing some slight guy on

672
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 5: the under here.

673
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know what happens to Cleveland Last year?

674
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 2: They played the NFC East and didn't they roll over all?

675
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 2: For of those teams. If I'm not mistaken, I think

676
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: they went four and oh against the NFCS.

677
00:31:55,160 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, So in fairness to Brown stands, I

678
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 3: will say is I mean they did have some turnover

679
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 3: lock Their special teams are awful, by the way, which

680
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 3: could cost them some games. But last year some of

681
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 3: the numbers are really skewed by three games. They got

682
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 3: absolutely boat raced by Baltimore in the opener, they got

683
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 3: trucked by Pittsburgh, and then they lost to the Jets

684
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 3: when they had like no players available because of COVID.

685
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 3: So that's one of the things you have to look

686
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 3: at when you know how unique last year was. They

687
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 3: had a game where they had no receivers when they

688
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 3: played the Jets and loss of the Jets. So yeah,

689
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 3: maybe they weren't as fortunate as some of the numbers say.

690
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 3: I do want to see how this defense works out.

691
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 3: You know, it's basically going to be a blown up defense.

692
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 3: They could have what seven new starters, potentially the linebackers

693
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 3: I still have questions for. I'm not sure Tac McKinley

694
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 3: and Clowney are the answer. So I do have some

695
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 3: questions about the defense, but and the special teams. But overall,

696
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 3: this is a well coached team headed in the right direction.

697
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 3: Should carry over a lot of them from last year.

698
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 3: Really looking for what to their Week one matchup against

699
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 3: Kansas City.

700
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 2: I actually would lean over on the Browns because I

701
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 2: think that the defense is is going to be improved enough.

702
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 4: I mean, it was just awful last season.

703
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: They had no safeties, the secondary was just completely just

704
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 2: messed up with all the injuries and everything, and it

705
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 2: was just ravaged. But when you look at the offense,

706
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 2: it's hard to see. It's hard to find a real

707
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 2: hole on the offense. I mean, you got the old

708
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 2: line of Will's Butotonio Treder, Wyatt Teller and Jack Conklin.

709
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 2: That's is pretty much as good as it gets on

710
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 2: the old line. And if Baker Mayfield we talked about

711
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 2: this all the time, stuck. You feel like on a

712
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 2: weekly basis, it's like, if Baker Mayfield is protected and

713
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,719
Speaker 2: he's comfortable and he's not under pressure, the Browns are

714
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 2: going to be good. That's what we started to see

715
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 2: happened last year. And that was even a large trunk

716
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 2: without Odell Beckham. Don't expect him to miss nine games

717
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 2: again this year. Donovan People's jones coming on. You got

718
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 2: the tight end, you got the running backs, so they

719
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 2: don't need the defense to be even as good as

720
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 2: it's ceiling. I think given who they added, they just

721
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 2: needed to be a tiny bit better than last year.

722
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 2: So I think this Browns team is actually gonna be very,

723
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 2: very good.

724
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 4: So I you know, if.

725
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 3: Beckham, Beckham gives him that deep threat to open up

726
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 3: the offense even more, which they need. If you want

727
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 3: to go down narrative street for something, if you want

728
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 3: to nitpick for the offense, it's does Beckham start screaming

729
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 3: and cause, you know, just a mess on the offense

730
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 3: because he's not getting the ball enough and then everything

731
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 3: falls apart. But I think if you think that their

732
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 3: offense is gonna be better with him out there, crazy,

733
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 3: I think he's going to really open up, open up

734
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 3: the field, and he's going to provide a lot more

735
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 3: explosiveness in that offense.

736
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 4: And he's getting the ball.

737
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 2: I mean, it's hard for him not to get the

738
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 2: ball because you still have you're still playing a lot

739
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,720
Speaker 2: with you know, it's a running back focused offense.

740
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 4: It's a tight end focused offense.

741
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 2: People's Jones and Higgins or whoever they put out there,

742
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 2: you know is not really a high target guy. It's

743
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 2: just really Beckham and Landry and those guys are friends.

744
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 2: I don't think you're actually gonna see much from Beckham.

745
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 2: I think he actually appreciates being on this team and

746
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 2: being on a team that's not the Giant. So I'm

747
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 2: not expecting it. It's Odell Beckham, so it could happen.

748
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 2: It's like Antonio Brown. You never know, you never know.

749
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 2: But I like this Browns team. It's just hard for

750
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 2: me to really find something in nitpick beyond what they

751
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 2: did last year.

752
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 4: But that was last year.

753
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 2: You know, they could have seven point seven Pythagora wins,

754
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 2: but that was last year.

755
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 4: The team is a little different this year.

756
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 2: So like the Browns, let's talk about your Ravens.

757
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: Stuck, Baltimore Ravens.

758
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 6: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save.

759
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: You, Sean, I'll actually go to you first. Let's stuck.

760
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 2: Kind of wrap it up. Ravens at eleven and a half.

761
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:47,879
Speaker 2: The under is juice to minus one forty five. Some

762
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 2: injuries in camp. I know on the offense, things coming

763
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:52,359
Speaker 2: together a little slow.

764
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 4: What do you think of the Ravens at eleven and

765
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 4: a half this year?

766
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 5: That line sounds about right if anything, I maybe lean

767
00:35:58,120 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 5: towards the under, but I don't really want to bet

768
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 5: against this team because you know this defense is loaded

769
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 5: up front, it's low in the secondary. I think they

770
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 5: could be scary good if Patrick Queen takes a year

771
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 5: two leap, and then I think the offense is going

772
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 5: to bounce back in a big way this year. I

773
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 5: think Lamar is going to bounce back having you know,

774
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 5: Rashad Bateman hopefully by week one, and Sammy Watkins should

775
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 5: make you know Mark Keith Brown a really good number

776
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 5: two wide receiver. I think this offense has a ton

777
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 5: of potential. My only concern is the tougher schedule. They

778
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 5: had the third easiest schedule last year. This year it's

779
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 5: eleventh toughest. We know Lamar Jackson plays a lot better

780
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 5: with a leading game script, so you know, if they

781
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 5: encounter a couple more trailing game scripts that could hurt

782
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 5: them this year. So that's why, if anything, I lead

783
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 5: towards the under. But you know, this team played very

784
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 5: good last year. When I look at their game time, leading,

785
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 5: trailing and tied metric that I love referencing, they finished

786
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 5: closer to a thirteen win team last year as opposed

787
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 5: to eleven games, So if anything, they got unlucky by

788
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 5: only winning eleven games last year. So this is one

789
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 5: of those teams where I might be showing galley on

790
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 5: the under, but I definitely don't want to bet it

791
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 5: because I think this is one of the most complete

792
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:07,240
Speaker 5: teams in the NFL.

793
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm at eleven one, so I don't see any

794
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 3: value in the win total here. I mean last year. Look,

795
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 3: I mean with Lamar Jackson, He's won an MVP. The

796
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 3: Ravens are going to get to the playoffs. They're going

797
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 3: to be in the mix, and we'll see if there's

798
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 3: one game ran in this the NFL, that's what happens

799
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 3: to the playoffs.

800
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 6: That's what makes the playoffs so great.

801
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 3: If that one game ran in this happens this year

802
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 3: in the first game, Lamar might not be resigned. If

803
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 3: they win a super Bowl, he will get you know,

804
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 3: seven billion dollars. That's the way the NFL works. We

805
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 3: saw it with Joe Flacco and ended up fighting the

806
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 3: Ravens for a couple of years. But Lamar Jackson has

807
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 3: to get a little better on some of the throws

808
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,399
Speaker 3: to take his game to the next level. I think

809
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 3: adding some of the pieces they did will help, but

810
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 3: still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and that

811
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 3: was last year. Some of the offensive woes at times,

812
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 3: we're not on him. There were drops at times. You

813
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,320
Speaker 3: obviously didn't have the most talent receiver. And the biggest

814
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 3: problem I think was the all pensive line. I mean,

815
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 3: this is a team that went they led the NFL

816
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 3: in third down pressure rate two years ago. Last year

817
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 3: they were bottom six or seven. Their offensive lines just

818
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 3: fell apart. You Ronnie Stanley get hurt. They had a

819
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 3: center who forgot how to snap the ball, Matt skur

820
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 3: I remember that. So the the offensive line I think

821
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 3: is gonna be much better this year. And that's gonna go.

822
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 3: Let mean, look, and the Ravens are just a great organization.

823
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 3: Want to two things to mention any other special teams

824
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 3: are going to be great. I have to mention that

825
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:36,280
Speaker 3: Justin Tucker. I have to get my Justin Tucker shout.

826
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:36,399
Speaker 6: Out in.

827
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 3: One thing, well, a couple of things that I'll mention.

828
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 3: I do still worry about the lack of natural edge rush.

829
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 6: Now they can.

830
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 3: They blitz as much as anyone in the NFL, and

831
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 3: that's how they generate pressure. But there's this guy in

832
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 3: the a f C that they can't beat that just

833
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 3: eats up the blitz name something sorts of a p

834
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 3: or something, so well, that's my way. If they run

835
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 3: into the Chiefs again, they just can't. That's how that's

836
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:09,399
Speaker 3: their whole defensive philosophy blitz right, And they have great

837
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 3: corners they can cover in the back end. If Tavon

838
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 3: Young is healthy. I don't know if he is just

839
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,919
Speaker 3: a figment of my imagination at this point, but if.

840
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 6: He's healthy, it could play in the slot. This is

841
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 6: one of the best.

842
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 3: Slot cornerbacks in the NFL four decades ago or whenever

843
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 3: the last time he played.

844
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 6: All reports are rosy right now.

845
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 3: But that means you can have Marlon Uprew, I think's

846
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 3: top two or three corners in the NFL. He can

847
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 3: play on the outside, where he's much better. I mean,

848
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 3: he could play anywhere, one of the most versatile corners

849
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 3: in the NFL. But he's just a little long and

850
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 3: he's not perfect for that slot. If he can get

851
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 3: him on the outside, Peter's on the other side with

852
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 3: Tavon Young in the slot, I mean, and then you

853
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 3: have Queen and you know guys like Harrison take that

854
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 3: next step in year two. The defense will be top

855
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 3: two or three again, could be the best in the NFL.

856
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 6: Offensive line is better.

857
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 3: This team will be right in the mix probably and

858
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 3: you know, anywhere from ten to twelve games based on

859
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,399
Speaker 3: a couple of coin flips and injury lock I make

860
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:08,439
Speaker 3: it eleven to one, no play for me, but they'll

861
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 3: be there in the end.

862
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a team that I mean, the defense is great,

863
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 2: They're getting Stanley back. I still think the biggest concern is,

864
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 2: like you said that, the edge rush at times, and

865
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 2: just I think the offense with I don't really think

866
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 2: Sammy Watkins is gonna be that big of a help.

867
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 2: I know he looks great in camp, but I am

868
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 2: worried that. You know, Mark, he's brown missed a bunch

869
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 2: of time, and Bateman is missing time so and Nick

870
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 2: Boyle is missing time. So I think that offense is

871
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 2: still going to be a little sluggish. In the past game,

872
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 2: I think they're still gonna have to win ugly, which

873
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 2: they will because their.

874
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 4: Defense is so good.

875
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's there's kind of a too much of

876
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 2: a scenario where they win ten or eleven instead of

877
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 2: the twelve that you need to cover the over, so

878
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:54,280
Speaker 2: I would lean under. I think it's a relatively tough division.

879
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 2: With Cleveland improving, I think Pittsburgh will still be a

880
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 2: tough team to play, and they're the third best team

881
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 2: I think in the division this year, so in the schedules,

882
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 2: just tough. So yeah, it's not an over bet for me.

883
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 2: A lot of respect for them, they'll be there, but

884
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 2: just I think there's a certain range of outcomes within that,

885
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 2: you know, double digit expectation that I can't get behind

886
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:18,399
Speaker 2: it over.

887
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 3: Let's go to Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Steelers. Steelers.

888
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,800
Speaker 6: Here we gosson.

889
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is at bet MGM an eight and a half

890
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 2: win team, so that means they're projected to go five hundred.

891
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 2: The under is juice to minus one sixty though, so

892
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 2: that really means they're closer to an eight win team. Stuck.

893
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 2: How do you feel about the Steelers. I know last

894
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 2: year we were both on that they were just they

895
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 2: were being overrated for most of the year. You still

896
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 2: feel that way or has the number come down?

897
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 6: Yeah? I mean this this team is in trouble.

898
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,320
Speaker 3: And look last year we were talking about how the

899
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 3: Ravens were even Courner.

900
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 6: You were saying they might have been a little unlucky. Well,

901
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 6: they almost won.

902
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 3: They played the Steelers with like their backups and in

903
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:11,839
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and almost won.

904
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 6: They were just crushed by COVID.

905
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 3: That was another game, another game that the Steelers just

906
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 3: pulled out of their ass. I mean, the most fraudile

907
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 3: and eleven and oh start I've ever seen, and then

908
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 3: the second easiest schedule last year. Per my numbers, the

909
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 3: had the second toughest schedule this year. They went seven

910
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 3: to two in one score games. They were covered fourteen

911
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 3: to nineteen fumbles on offense, they had no rushing attack.

912
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 6: The offensive line is just it's a disaster right now.

913
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 3: And you have a quarterback who's fifty six years old

914
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: just doesn't really have his fast oneymore. And people don't

915
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 3: think of Roethlisberger as you know, this mobile guy, but

916
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 3: as he's older, he used to just extend plays as

917
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,359
Speaker 3: well as any quarterback. People will be dragging. I mean,

918
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 3: he just can't do that anymore. He's getting rid of

919
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 3: the ball so quick. The offensive line has a massed

920
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 3: the rushing gives West, the defense is gonna be good.

921
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 3: Look they're gonna Benumber one and adjusted Zack right, They're

922
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 3: gonna get it. They're gonna lead the NFL in sacks.

923
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 3: They're gonna generate a ton of pressure. But I'm worried

924
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 3: about their corner situation. It's a little dicey. They lost

925
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 3: to very high contributing corners. Who's going to play in

926
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 3: the slot. So I'm worried about that the back end

927
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 3: of that defense. But it's mainly the offense.

928
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 6: Uh.

929
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 3: The offensive line is a mess. I mean Trey Turner

930
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 3: is going to be starting at guard. I mean Kendrick

931
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,799
Speaker 3: Green or J. C. Housemeyer is gonna be starting at

932
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:32,319
Speaker 3: center because Penalty's gone, going to Wade has gone to

933
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 3: Castro's gone. The offensive line is also just they're not

934
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 3: the same since Munchak left. And this is a team

935
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 3: that always had an the lead offensive line and now

936
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 3: you have a you know, a thirty nine year old

937
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 3: quarterback doesn't have that anymore. They're in trouble. The salary

938
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 3: cap is really catching up to them.

939
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 6: I don't know.

940
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 3: Maybe Clem is a brilliant mastermind that can fix this

941
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 3: offensive line, but I don't say it, Hayden, he's thirty two.

942
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 3: I mean, if he has a drop off and then

943
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 3: you have what Cam Sutton and Justin Lane or your

944
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 3: other two starting quarterback cornerbacks.

945
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 6: It's not pretty, and.

946
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 3: The schedule gets much tougher, but the offensive line and

947
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,240
Speaker 3: Roethlisberger's last urrat, I don't think it's gonna end. Well,

948
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 3: I make them I wanted to bet this under. There's

949
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 3: just a lot I don't like. I make it like

950
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 3: seven to nine, and people say, oh, Mike Tomlin has

951
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:19,399
Speaker 3: never finished with a losing record.

952
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 6: What what he would have to do that for this

953
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 6: to go under? Well, yeah, number one.

954
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 3: This is a seventeen game season, and in the past,

955
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 3: the Steelers would just get four free wins against the

956
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 3: Browns and Bengals. They might still get two against the Bengals,

957
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 3: but they would just beat those those four free wins

958
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 3: right off the bat. So it's a little different with

959
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 3: the Browns being a better team now and there's seventeen

960
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 3: games in the season.

961
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 2: I don't want to hear about the labor pays man

962
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 2: deliver the damn baby. So I look.

963
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 3: The seventeenth game that they added was Seattle, which great.

964
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 3: So I'm low on the Steelers this year, but I

965
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 3: just don't make it low enough. The market is surprisingly

966
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 3: sharp on them, so I'm staying away from their wind total.

967
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 4: Yeah it's a team.

968
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 2: I mean, if you're leaning one way or the other,

969
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 2: I think you gotta go under, because again it has

970
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 2: that magic recipe, which is everything looks good on paper,

971
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 2: enough looks good, but then you look at that O

972
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:16,320
Speaker 2: one and that's usually the thing that is not priced incorrectly.

973
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 4: Sean, what do you think of the Steelers.

974
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 5: There's plenty of reasons to be bearish on them. Stucky

975
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 5: laid most of them out. But you know, despite being

976
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 5: a twelve team, I had them playing closer to a

977
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:28,279
Speaker 5: nine and a half win team last year, thanks in

978
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:31,240
Speaker 5: part to that seven and two one score game record.

979
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 5: They had the fifth best injury luck and yeah, they

980
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,359
Speaker 5: had the second easiest schedule last season and now they

981
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 5: have the second hardest this season. So I think eight

982
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,439
Speaker 5: and a half looks slow. Just looking at this team

983
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 5: on paper, they do seem like, you know, a winning

984
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 5: football team. But yeah, eight and a half sounds about right,

985
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 5: especially the under juiced up to myce won sixty.

986
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 6: It's a pass for me.

987
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 5: The offensive line could be an issue, however, you know,

988
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:57,359
Speaker 5: Big Ben did get rid of the ball quick last year.

989
00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 5: Two point three seconds time to throw was fastest in

990
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:03,319
Speaker 5: the NFL. So maybe the offensive line doesn't impact him

991
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 5: as much, but it could prevent them from being a

992
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 5: more balanced offense with Najia Harris this year if they

993
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:11,919
Speaker 5: can't block for him, so they could be pass heavy

994
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 5: again this year. And who knows a big ben can

995
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 5: hold up for another season. So I think it's a

996
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 5: good line. You know, the defense and Mike Tollman, I

997
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 5: think give this team a high floor. So if they

998
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 5: do finish under it'll probably be eight wins exactly. So

999
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 5: this is a stay away for me.

1000
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 6: Yeah. The other thing is though with that.

1001
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 3: You know, last year all they did is Roethlisberger would

1002
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 3: sit in shock on SNAPA and then throw it. And

1003
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 3: I have good receivers, but it's so hard to move

1004
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 3: the ball that way. Now they do bring in Matt

1005
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 3: Canada's offensive coordinator, and I think that they're going to

1006
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 3: try to do more play action, more motion, which is

1007
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 3: a good thing, and you add Najie Harris in the backfield.

1008
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 3: But if you're trying to do that with an offensive line,

1009
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 3: that could be a complete mess. I mean, it could

1010
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 3: be really ugly.

1011
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:54,799
Speaker 2: You know.

1012
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 3: You mentioned some of the injury potential, injury regression, they

1013
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 3: have penalty regression, they have turnover regression. They're plus eight

1014
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 3: and plus nine the past two years. So there's a

1015
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 3: lot of things that could just work against Pittsburgh that year,

1016
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 3: a lot of variables, turnovers, injuries. So yeah, I'm lowing them,

1017
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 3: but not enough value to play under here.

1018
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:22,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, they seem to be just kind of conceding the

1019
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 2: fact that their O line is going to be bad,

1020
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 2: you know, first with that pass game, with that quick

1021
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 2: release from Roethlisberger and the good receivers running the short routes,

1022
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:33,760
Speaker 2: and then they go out and get Naji Harris, who

1023
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 2: is kind of a specialist at running behind you know,

1024
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,360
Speaker 2: getting yards where there's not there and kind of covering

1025
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 2: for his old line and getting things after context. So

1026
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 2: they're going to try to make this work. I don't know,

1027
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 2: I don't know how long they hold up. But it's

1028
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 2: a fascinating team because it's like the classic, you know,

1029
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 2: good on paper team, except if you just totally ignore

1030
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 2: offensive nd you're like, oh, they got great receivers and

1031
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,040
Speaker 2: a quarterback who's you know, at least been decent in

1032
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 2: his career, and the defense is good. It's like the

1033
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:05,320
Speaker 2: running They have this rookie running back who was drafted highway,

1034
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:09,440
Speaker 2: but man, that old line could be very, very bad,

1035
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 2: So definitely wouldn't go over with them. I'm fascinating though.

1036
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 2: I think they're the team I'm watching the most in

1037
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:15,880
Speaker 2: this division.

1038
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 6: Positive aggression piece. They stopped dropping balls. Yeah, they're you know,

1039
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:23,839
Speaker 6: drop here and there just absolutely kills you. Yeah.

1040
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:27,920
Speaker 2: Deyontay Johnson, Eric Ebron I remember with the main culprits

1041
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:31,359
Speaker 2: of that. So we'll see what happens with them.

1042
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 4: Uh.

1043
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 2: The Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Bengals.

1044
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 3: The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that

1045
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:43,239
Speaker 3: they started it, with.

1046
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 6: A die hard commitment.

1047
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 1: The Bengals battle tenaciously.

1048
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals. Six and a half is the win total.

1049
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 2: It's even rejuiced on both sides. Sean Joe Burrow. Entering

1050
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:57,880
Speaker 2: year two, a lot of people thought maybe they should

1051
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 2: have gone with Pine Sewel on the O line instead

1052
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 2: of drafting Joe Burrow's college buddy in Jamar Chase. So

1053
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 2: this tells me they're gonna they're committed to this pass gain.

1054
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 2: They averaged forty attempts per game with Burrow last year.

1055
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 4: What do you think it is Bengals team.

1056
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, so the offensive line should be shaky this year,

1057
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:16,879
Speaker 5: and this is not the division you want to have

1058
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 5: a shaky line. I mean, they have to face the Ravens,

1059
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:23,879
Speaker 5: Steelers and Browns twice, so imagine if their offensive line

1060
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 5: falls apart, that's gonna be tough. But you know, I

1061
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 5: think having Burrow and that solid trio wide receivers and

1062
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 5: Joe Mixon should be good enough to put up points

1063
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 5: and at least keep them competitive. You know, last year

1064
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,359
Speaker 5: they only won four games, but I have them, you know,

1065
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 5: estimated close for a seven point three win team, and

1066
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 5: that was with Joe Burrow the final six games and

1067
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 5: some courts. You know, they had Brandon Allen and Ryan

1068
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:49,760
Speaker 5: Finley combined the last six games. And they still play decent.

1069
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:52,279
Speaker 5: And you know, they went one in five in one

1070
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 5: score games, so they are due for some positive regression.

1071
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 1: The Cincinnati Bengals game roaring.

1072
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 5: Back and their defense is fairly solid. They probably overpaid

1073
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 5: for Trey Hendrickson, but they should be pretty solid upfront

1074
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 5: with Sam Hubbard and DJ Reader. Cornerback group is a rebuild,

1075
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 5: but you know, earlier reports out of the camp is

1076
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 5: you know Ouzia Wayns and Hilton are doing a good

1077
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 5: job covering this solid chair of receivers, So there's some

1078
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,840
Speaker 5: optimism there. You know, six and a half isn't that

1079
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 5: high of a number that you know, we have a

1080
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 5: seventeen game schedule this year, so this is probably a passer.

1081
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 6: But if I had to.

1082
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 5: Lean one way, it'd probably be the over. At the Bengals,

1083
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,240
Speaker 5: I think they they are trending in the right direction

1084
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 5: that the only real question mark is offensive line.

1085
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 4: So that's that's probably why I'm passing on this.

1086
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 2: What do you think of a Bengals because like the

1087
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:44,439
Speaker 2: O line it you know, we think of it as, yeah,

1088
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:46,279
Speaker 2: this is going to be a Problemary. We remember what

1089
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 2: happened to Burrow last year. It just seemed like the

1090
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:51,160
Speaker 2: lasting image with him just going down and it finally

1091
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 2: ended a season. But I mean, they have Jonah Williams

1092
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 2: and Riley Reef on the outside, you know, that could

1093
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:00,720
Speaker 2: be a decent tackle duo in Hopkins could be okay

1094
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:01,240
Speaker 2: at center.

1095
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 4: The guards are still question marks.

1096
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 2: But like, is this line gonna be their downfall or

1097
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 2: can is it passable?

1098
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 3: I mean, are there are a lot of stakes? I mean,

1099
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 3: right we're trying to put lipstick on the pate with

1100
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 3: Riley Reef. But I mean, Joe, I think that you know,

1101
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 3: Jenna Williams has shown some promise at left tackle, but

1102
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 3: the rest of the offensive line is a mess. And

1103
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 3: it's just basically Burrow back there. There's no play action,

1104
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 3: there's no motion in this offense. And he's just and

1105
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:33,279
Speaker 3: he's good. He can sling it, but he's getting hit

1106
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:35,840
Speaker 3: so much. Can he stay healthy for the whole season.

1107
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:40,720
Speaker 3: It's a major question. It's just a dumpster fire organization overall.

1108
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:44,720
Speaker 3: They just it's been a dumpster fire for for women's

1109
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 3: last time you remember the Bengals being good, I mean

1110
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,359
Speaker 3: Martin Lewis days. This is a team that's just they

1111
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 3: don't do anything right from an organizational respect. They never

1112
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 3: draft right, they never spend when they should. Just a cheap,

1113
00:51:56,600 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 3: dumpster fire organization. They're linebackers every year. It seems like

1114
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 3: you say that every year.

1115
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:05,320
Speaker 2: They're like the team that they're gonna give up running

1116
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:07,720
Speaker 2: back receptions and tight end catches and all that stuff.

1117
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 3: I mean, how many points are they going to give

1118
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 3: up to the Ravens again this year? That's that'll that'll

1119
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 3: get ugly, So you know, I know, I think Hendrickson,

1120
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 3: he's the Hendrickson's the classic Bengals By.

1121
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:20,399
Speaker 6: Now they got I mean, if Losson didn't go, maybe he.

1122
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 3: Doesn't get hurt because he would have been a different

1123
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 3: I don't know, he obviously wouldn't, but maybe he gets

1124
00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 3: hurt in Cincy. But they that was the classic Bengals By.

1125
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:30,920
Speaker 3: They'd buy a guy who just got he was just

1126
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:32,959
Speaker 3: the benefit of a bunch of sacks with a team

1127
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:35,840
Speaker 3: that had a million great defense, pends on an elite defense,

1128
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:38,080
Speaker 3: and I don't love their corners. I know there's been

1129
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 3: some good reports, but we'll see if they hold up.

1130
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:43,640
Speaker 6: I think it's good safeties. Their special teams have been

1131
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 6: pretty good, and it's Burrow could stay healthy. They're gonna score,

1132
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 6: and they're gonna be in games. They're gonna give up points.

1133
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 6: I make this like right on the win total. Their

1134
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 6: schedule gets harder this year. They are due for some

1135
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 6: positive regression. They get nine home games. I don't even

1136
00:52:57,239 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 6: know if people still go to Bengals games, does not

1137
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 6: even matter. But this is a pure pass for me.

1138
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:05,360
Speaker 6: It's tough with Borrow in that division, with that offensive

1139
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 6: line against the raven scene that just blitzes everybody and

1140
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:10,680
Speaker 6: can cover on the outside. A Steelers team that's one

1141
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 6: of the best pressure teams for the NFL. You got

1142
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 6: to deal with Miles Garrett and it's just it's tough.

1143
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 6: It's so hopefully for our viewing pleasure, he can stay

1144
00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:23,239
Speaker 6: healthy for seventeen games, but it's going to be tough,

1145
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 6: and maybe they'll invest in I mean, he has a

1146
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 6: lot of talent.

1147
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 3: He's one of the best young receiving corps in the NFL,

1148
00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 3: so they'll be fun to watch if he can stay

1149
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 3: upright and stay healthy.

1150
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:33,760
Speaker 6: But it's a pass for me. I met like six'

1151
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:35,319
Speaker 6: three tougher schedule this.

1152
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 4: Year, yeah and you, KNOW i like the.

1153
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 2: QUARTERBACK i like the skill positions kind of like The.

1154
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:44,840
Speaker 2: STEELERS i, guess, well not with the, quarterback BUT i

1155
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:46,879
Speaker 2: have to look at the coach, too because you mentioned

1156
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 2: the organization AND i HADN'T i guess thought of them

1157
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 2: in that. Light is like just a garbage jumpster fire.

1158
00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 2: Organization that's like those are strong, words BUT i do

1159
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:59,279
Speaker 2: kind of struggle to find anything to hang my hat

1160
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 2: on With Zach. TAYLOR i, MEAN i know he got

1161
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,280
Speaker 2: kind of delta a rough hand with some of the quarterback,

1162
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 2: injuries and he's been starting some guys that are true

1163
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:11,799
Speaker 2: backups or just not really top you, know thirty TWO

1164
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 2: nfl starters over his. Tenure but if you're betting on

1165
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:19,359
Speaker 2: The bengals to get seven, wins that's more Than Zach

1166
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:21,640
Speaker 2: taylor has in thirty two games as a head.

1167
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 4: Coach he's six twenty five and.

1168
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 2: One, so, LIKE i can't bring myself to do, that

1169
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 2: especially in a division where you, know the third best

1170
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:33,879
Speaker 2: team is The, steelers who may still find some way

1171
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 2: to win nine games and have one of the best

1172
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:38,440
Speaker 2: defenses in the. Week, so, yeah The bengals would be

1173
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 2: under for, me not even just because of the offensive,

1174
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:44,239
Speaker 2: line but just it's just kind of a mix of

1175
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:48,400
Speaker 2: there's the, schedule the o, line in the fact that

1176
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 2: we don't really have anything With Zach taylor to make

1177
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:53,440
Speaker 2: us confident that he can go and Beat tomlin And

1178
00:54:54,960 --> 00:54:59,239
Speaker 2: harbaugh and Now. Stefanski it just that division makes it so.

1179
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:02,800
Speaker 3: Tough, yeah they got a better go to if you

1180
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 3: want to bet those over, winter they better go on the,

1181
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 3: road which is never EASY nfl and beat the lines

1182
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:09,919
Speaker 3: and beat The, jets because if you don't win those.

1183
00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 3: Games week seven At, baltimore Then browns At, Raiders, Steelers

1184
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 3: chargers forty, Nine ers At, Denver, Baltimore chiefs At. Browns

1185
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:23,759
Speaker 3: like you don't if they don't get some early. Wins you,

1186
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 3: Know jacksonville at, home The vikings at home is winnable

1187
00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 3: to start the. Year it's that the back half of

1188
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:29,880
Speaker 3: the schedule is the.

1189
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:32,839
Speaker 4: Brutal all, Right so before we.

1190
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 2: Get out of here on The Action network podcast sponsored

1191
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:38,239
Speaker 2: By BETT, mgm just a quick recap since we went

1192
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:42,719
Speaker 2: through so many, teams and your strongest overlean and your strongest, Underlean,

1193
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:43,840
Speaker 2: Sean i'll start with.

1194
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:47,600
Speaker 5: You so my favorite over here is The Buffalo bills

1195
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:49,759
Speaker 5: over eleven and a half wins at plus one. TWENTY

1196
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 5: i love the continuity of this. YEAR i don't think

1197
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:54,279
Speaker 5: we're gonna see much regression at all From Josh, allen

1198
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:56,920
Speaker 5: so lovely over. There and then my favorite under is

1199
00:55:56,960 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 5: probably The dolphins under nine and a half wins at

1200
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 5: plus one. Fifteen you, KNOW i don't really think That

1201
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 5: tua is going to have a big year two leap

1202
00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 5: that people think they added a ton of, weapons but you,

1203
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 5: know the the jury is still out on to. Us

1204
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 5: So i'm not willing to bet the over.

1205
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:15,399
Speaker 4: Here that's what about.

1206
00:56:15,440 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 3: You, Yeah i'll say my favorite instead of an. Over

1207
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:22,840
Speaker 3: i'm gonna Go bill's, future whether That's Super bowl OR.

1208
00:56:22,880 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 3: AFC i like the, upside and there's a lot of

1209
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:29,000
Speaker 3: uncertainty in the. Division you, know if everything works out with,

1210
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:30,879
Speaker 3: two if everything works, out you, know things work out

1211
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:33,799
Speaker 3: With Zach, wilson if everything works out with The, patriots

1212
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 3: that's six of their games that could swing a game or.

1213
00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 3: Two SO i prefer the upside of this. TEAM i

1214
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 3: love their coaching. STAFF i Think Josh allen is going

1215
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 3: to continue to. PROGRESS i think the defense is going to.

1216
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 3: Improve everything in the second half of last year into

1217
00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:52,799
Speaker 3: your offensive line, improvement that defensive, improvement you get your

1218
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:55,760
Speaker 3: nose tackled. Back everyone kind of flows their natural. POSITIONS

1219
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 3: i think that carries over to this. YEAR i agree

1220
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 3: With kerner on The dolphins UNDER i think this team

1221
00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 3: is a year away with their offensive. Line With, tua

1222
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:08,040
Speaker 3: you could argue this is basically year one for him

1223
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:10,920
Speaker 3: coming off of an injury you know he had also

1224
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 3: you KNOW covid. Years he's splitting time With. Fitzpatrick dolphins

1225
00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:18,720
Speaker 3: got very fortunate last year in the turnover. DEPARTMENT i

1226
00:57:18,720 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 3: think there's some regression coming. THERE i like some of

1227
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:23,800
Speaker 3: the weapons they. Added they're well coached, team BUT i

1228
00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:26,680
Speaker 3: have this closer to you, know eight, six eight, Seven

1229
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:31,280
Speaker 3: SO i Think dolphins year away by the upside of The.

1230
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 2: Bills for, Me i'm going with The browns on the.

1231
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 2: OVER i just struggle to find a big hole in their,

1232
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 2: roster and their offensive line one through FIVE i think

1233
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 2: is one of the best in the, league and that's

1234
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:48,000
Speaker 2: All Baker mayfield needs to have. Success and you're getting

1235
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 2: some guys back from injury Like Odell. Beckham SO i

1236
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 2: think the future is looking real bright For cleveland this,

1237
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:57,800
Speaker 2: year especially With pittsburgh on the. Decline and my favorite

1238
00:57:57,880 --> 00:58:01,120
Speaker 2: under is The Cincinnati bengals under six and a. Half

1239
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:05,120
Speaker 2: when you combine the potentially SHAKY o, line getting your

1240
00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 2: franchise quarterback hit with a coach that really you have

1241
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:10,160
Speaker 2: nothing to hang your hat on with a six and

1242
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 2: twenty five, record and then you're playing three tough teams

1243
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 2: within the division with three tough, DEFENSES i just think

1244
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 2: it's gonna be too much to overcome for The Cincinnati bengals.

1245
00:58:20,360 --> 00:58:23,400
Speaker 2: Team so like them under six and a half that

1246
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:27,880
Speaker 2: is gonna do. It for this episode of The Action Network.

1247
00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 2: Podcast as a, reminder we will have new episodes Every, Monday,

1248
00:58:33,440 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 2: wednesday And friday this season After Labor, day Featuring stucky

1249
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 2: AND i of course on our flagship Six pack, episode

1250
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 2: plus our guys brand And anderson And Raheem. Palmer you

1251
00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 2: can Find Sean kerner On twitter at The Underscore Odds.

1252
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 2: Maker you can Find stucky At Stucky, too and you.

1253
00:58:51,520 --> 00:58:52,400
Speaker 4: Can find me At Chris.

1254
00:58:52,480 --> 00:58:55,640
Speaker 2: Raybond you can also find us at those same handles

1255
00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 2: in The Action Network, app the award Winning Action Network.

1256
00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 2: App next, time we'll be back with the a F

1257
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:05,920
Speaker 2: C south of THE Afc. West until, then let's get

1258
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 2: this sh. Money