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Speaker 1: Well, joining me now is somebody who, in the world

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Speaker 1: of political analysis needs no introduction.

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Speaker 2: It's the legendary. It's the great Charlie Cook.

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Speaker 1: And he's here because he also is part of perhaps

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Speaker 1: the single most important reference book in both of our lives.

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Speaker 1: It's called The Almanac of American Politics, and the latest

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Speaker 1: edition is hitting bookstores now ish or really, why do

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Speaker 1: we call it bookstores? Yes, there'll be a few in bookstores,

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Speaker 1: but you'll get to order it directly. I'm one of

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Speaker 1: those people that always says the older the Almanac, the

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Speaker 1: more useful it is. So and I have to have

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Speaker 1: every single one of them, and over the years my

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Speaker 1: ability they go back to nineteen seventy two. I finally

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Speaker 1: have a complete set and got it completed about ten

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Speaker 1: or fifteen years ago. But the biggest impediment to completing

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Speaker 1: the set was always Charlie Cook, because every time I

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Speaker 1: went to a used bookstore in Washington, DC looking for it,

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Speaker 1: I put my name on a list and they said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's nice, but Charlie's ahead of you.

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Speaker 2: In the list. But yeah, any bay works pretty well too.

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Speaker 2: But I did have two complete sets and then was

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Speaker 2: having to do a third because we were splitting the

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Speaker 2: time between anyway. So now I actually gave somebody a

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Speaker 2: bunch of my extras, so I've got two full sets. Though.

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Speaker 1: Well, what I joke with people about this is that

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Speaker 1: I'm in the sports I like sports cards. And you

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Speaker 1: know there's a there is if you're trying to collect

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Speaker 1: every edition of the American Politics, there is a short print,

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Speaker 1: and the short print edition is nineteen seventy six, which

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Speaker 1: I would argue is the single most important one of

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Speaker 1: my generation because it was the first almanac after the

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Speaker 1: Watergate elections, which had this massive transformation, and you.

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Speaker 2: Were dying to read the Almanac.

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Speaker 1: And of all years that they were short printed, that

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Speaker 1: was a tough one because I think I spent five

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars on my nineteen.

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Speaker 2: Seventy sixth edition. It was so it was so hard

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Speaker 2: to find. What I finally got first in nineteen seventy

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Speaker 2: two is a senior in high school at a bookstore

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Speaker 2: my hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana, and have been addicted to

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Speaker 2: it ever since. I think they're at a max of

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Speaker 2: twenty two hundred. I think like twenty two hundred pages

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Speaker 2: is the most I think they could get into that

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Speaker 2: kind of binding. Is that what it is now? And

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Speaker 2: that's what that's the limited, That's what it was last

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Speaker 2: two So I think that's probably what it is. It's time.

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Speaker 2: I know you. My essay is about a third or

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Speaker 2: fourth the size that originally was. Well, this is what

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Speaker 2: I want to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Look, Michael Baron is the guy who came up with

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Speaker 1: the concept with grand Ujifusa still his name on it.

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Speaker 2: He's less involvement. I don't think there's zero involvement. If

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Speaker 2: I'm not mistakes, He's still pretty involved. But you get

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Speaker 2: to write the opening essay. Does he write an essay anymore? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I think, Well, I haven't seen the new one, but

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Speaker 2: I believe he's got Yeah. I think there are three,

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Speaker 2: at least three, Lou Jacobson, who's the quarterbacking the whole thing,

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Speaker 2: and Michael. I mean I think so. I think there

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Speaker 2: are three, and there may actually be a couple of others,

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Speaker 2: but there are a bunch of really really talented people involved.

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Speaker 2: Jessica Taylor, you know a lot people you all know well.

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Speaker 1: As I am a I always say that it is

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Speaker 1: it's different than most reference books because it you know,

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Speaker 1: there's it does have it was it's a better read

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Speaker 1: than c Q. That's what I used to say, and

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Speaker 1: I don't CQ sometimes had more information, but it was

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Speaker 1: but you learned less about each congressional district. I mean,

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Speaker 1: what Barone created was this model of essentially two profiles

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Speaker 1: and one and half the profile of each district would

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Speaker 1: be about the district and about the economy of the

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Speaker 1: district and the culture of the district. And it really was,

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Speaker 1: you know, helped you understand the tapestry of America.

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Speaker 2: And then the other, frankly.

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Speaker 1: Smaller part, unless it was a well known lawmaker, would

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Speaker 1: be the profile of the lawmaker themselves.

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Speaker 2: And literally the now I used to joke you could.

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Speaker 1: Track Michael Barone's political evolution by just reading Henry waxman

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Speaker 1: biography profiles from Night eighty two versus nineteen ninety six,

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Speaker 1: you know, and you could see, you know, the question

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Speaker 1: is did Henry Waxman change or did Michael Barone change?

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Speaker 1: But I say this with love. I love Michael and

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Speaker 1: his you know, we don't agree at everything, but the.

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Speaker 2: Guy I'll go with the latter.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, the guy is was a savant, is a

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Speaker 1: savant on this stuff and taught us all to learn,

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Speaker 1: have to learn America one district at a time.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people go from you know, I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to come up with a metaphor other than caterpillars and butterflies,

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Speaker 2: one of this little less less judgmental. But you know,

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Speaker 2: Pat Cadell, you know, who was always a maverick, but

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Speaker 2: the last you know, eight ten years of his life,

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Speaker 2: was much more of a maverick than even he was

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Speaker 2: when he was a senior in college. And McGovern's pollster.

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Speaker 1: You know, some people are always outsiders, Yeah right, no

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Speaker 1: matter what, they're always outsiders, Like Bernie Sanders. Strikes me

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Speaker 1: that he would always find a way to be the outsider.

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Speaker 2: Even if he were put in charge. Yeah, you know right,

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Speaker 2: and in some ways that's Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: Well let's start with Look, the beauty of these of

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Speaker 1: these almanacs is it does try to sort of paint

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Speaker 1: a picture in a moment, right where are we as

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Speaker 1: a country in this moment in time. This will be

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Speaker 1: technically the Almanac of American Politics twenty twenty six, but

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Speaker 1: it's really about twenty twenty four, you know, And what

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Speaker 1: did we learn about America in twenty twenty four? And

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Speaker 1: what does it say of who we are in this moment.

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Speaker 1: How did you tackle your essay?

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Speaker 2: Well, I have a bit of a contrarian view. To me,

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Speaker 2: the twenty twenty four election was kind of a bifurcated

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Speaker 2: election that at the presidential level it had one outcome

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Speaker 2: and then below that it had a very different one

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Speaker 2: at the top. It's astonishing how broad the declines were

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Speaker 2: for Democrats, both geographically and demographically. In fact that the

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Speaker 2: Catalyst study looked at one hundred different subgroups demographic subgroups,

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Speaker 2: and the Democratic percentage declined in ninety two out of

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Speaker 2: one hundred, and I think it went up in like

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Speaker 2: three and say the same at five or something like that.

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Speaker 2: And then you've seen the ones about you know, the

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Speaker 2: countings and stuff. But the thing is, but at the

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Speaker 2: same time, it was a tiny bit less than a

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Speaker 2: point and a half and so it was a horizontal loss,

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Speaker 2: but it wasn't a vertical loss either in the sense

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Speaker 2: of it being down that much or but more importantly,

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Speaker 2: you look down ballot, look at the house. When you

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Speaker 2: have it, I mean a gain. Democrats wanted to get

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Speaker 2: a majority. Yeah, absolutely, they didn't get it, but they

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Speaker 2: gained seats. Now do you lose an election if you

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Speaker 2: gain seats, I mean, you know, you may. It may

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Speaker 2: have been a disappointing election, but it wasn't the wipeout

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Speaker 2: that people suggest it is. And then you look at

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Speaker 2: the Senate races, and you know, if you divide the

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Speaker 2: country up seven purple states, nineteen blue states, twenty four

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Speaker 2: red states, Democrats won every one of the races in

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Speaker 2: blue states, Republicans won every one of the races in

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Speaker 2: red states. And there were five Senate races that were

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Speaker 2: in purple states and Democrats won four out of five.

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Speaker 2: But the election is seen as a repudiation of the

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Speaker 2: entire Democratic Party. No net change in governors, there was

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Speaker 2: a net gain of one Republican in ags. There was

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Speaker 2: no net change in Secretary of State races, and the

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Speaker 2: change of Julia Sees. The changes in state legislative seats

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Speaker 2: was less than a percentage point, So down ballot this

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Speaker 2: was about as status quo or predictable election as you

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Speaker 2: could possibly possibly get you.

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Speaker 1: No, it reminds me, I remember the ninety eight min

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Speaker 1: terms were barely budged anything. If I remember, I want

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Speaker 1: to say five House seats total, maybe not a single

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Speaker 1: Senate seat. It may have been zero I think, in fact,

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Speaker 1: I used to joke, right, Mitch McConnell was the NRSC

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Speaker 1: chair in two cycles and he had a net loss

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Speaker 1: of four in those two cycles ninety eight and two

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Speaker 1: thousand and two thousand, they ended up losing seats. But

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Speaker 1: I remember a headline we came up with at the highline,

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Speaker 1: status quo. But wow, right, because the fact that was

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Speaker 1: status quo was the shock in ninety eight type of

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Speaker 1: thing is I think what shocks everybody is a Trump

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Speaker 1: won the popular vote, so it feels like it was monumental,

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Speaker 1: but when you look at everything else, nothing really budged.

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Speaker 2: That's basically what you're what you're kind of saying, Well,

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Speaker 2: and you know, we're going through a period where there's

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Speaker 2: virtually no third party or independent vote, and so you

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Speaker 2: know there's going to be, you know, likely to be

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Speaker 2: a majority, you know, or closetro majority, no matter, no

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Speaker 2: matter what. But you know, I got a little bit

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Speaker 2: more time on my hands. You know, when the last

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Speaker 2: Democrat Democratic Senate incumbent lost re election general election in

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Speaker 2: a blue state, Mark You'dahl in Colorado in twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 2: the last Republican to lose in a red state general

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Speaker 2: election was Ted Stevens in Alaska in two thousand and eight,

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Speaker 2: and that was after he was indicted, but before the

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Speaker 2: indictment was reversed, and that nowadays.

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Speaker 1: So it's been over a decade, over a decade since

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Speaker 1: blue stayed blue unless unless the Democrats toxic.

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Speaker 2: And the same thing for Republicans in red states is

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Speaker 2: that basically all the action is in purple states.

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Speaker 1: And now Moore, right, like Roy Moore is about what

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Speaker 1: it takes for a Democrat to win in a red state.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's a good definition. Chris Kloback in Kansas,

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Speaker 2: in the Kansas governor's race, you.

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Speaker 1: Know, in my Castle, you know, Mike Castle died earlier

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Speaker 1: this week, and they were in fact, I wanted to

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Speaker 1: make a bigger.

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Speaker 2: Note of it because it's funny.

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Speaker 1: Mike Castle in some ways as an early victim of

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Speaker 1: the mega movement. Right twenty ten primary loses to this,

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Speaker 1: you know, in a small primary. The woman became famous

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Speaker 1: for doing an ad saying I am not a witch.

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Speaker 1: Chris Coons became a Senator for life because of.

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Speaker 2: It, right, And it was a yeah, it was. I

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Speaker 2: remember speaking to a group in Wilmington during that race,

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Speaker 2: and both Coons and Mike Castle were on the program,

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Speaker 2: and I remember listening to Coons because I didn't know

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Speaker 2: that much about Coons and thinking, gosh, this guy's pretty good.

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Speaker 2: If he were everybody other than other than Mike Castle,

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Speaker 2: you know, this guy could seem like the Washington generals.

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Speaker 1: He was the poor guy that was that they put

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Speaker 1: up to the because the Delaware politics, it was always

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Speaker 1: like a year turn type of thing, and it was like, well,

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Speaker 1: it was Castle's turn. Everybody likes Castle fine, right, Like

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Speaker 1: Biden was barely endorsing Coons at the time.

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Speaker 2: It was sort of like that Castle's a good guy.

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Speaker 2: It's his turn. Well, small states there, you used to

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Speaker 2: have these these non aggression packs in small states where

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Speaker 2: you don't screw with your colleague. And I'm trying to

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Speaker 2: decide whether to tell a story or not sure what

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Speaker 2: the hell I have. It was right after Biden dropped

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Speaker 2: out of it. It's a it was the Neil Kennick story.

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Speaker 1: Well anyway, forty eight, yeah, eighty eight, race eight eighty seven,

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Speaker 1: eighty eight, nine eighty eight.

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Speaker 2: And it was the next time he was up for reelection,

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Speaker 2: and I get a call from his his AA chief

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Speaker 2: of staff, Ted Kaufman saying when are you going to

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Speaker 2: be on the hill next? And I said, well, so

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Speaker 2: go buy. He pulls out this three ring binder blue

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Speaker 2: that says Market Opinion Research, you know, which at the

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Speaker 2: time was one of the two big Republican polling firms

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Speaker 2: had the original and get through where clearly he had

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Speaker 2: Roth's poll that Roth had had done and was proving

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Speaker 2: to me that it had not damaged him in Delaware.

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Speaker 1: So here was the Democratic chief of staff getting a

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Speaker 1: Republican polsters, their Republican colleagues polling here. Why don't you

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Speaker 1: take a look at this? Well, yeah, in the original notebook,

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Speaker 1: So it wasn't even a photocopy. We were talking about

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Speaker 1: handing over a three inch binder. And you know, you know,

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Speaker 1: back in the old days you said fun times. I

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Speaker 1: had a media consultant one time sitting me down with

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Speaker 1: the let me look at all the cross tabs on

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Speaker 1: a poll that was in anyway, it was basically proving

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Speaker 1: that the guy that was likely to win the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Senate nomination had no chance whatsoever in a general election.

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Speaker 2: And it was completely conjurary. Well up, you and I

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Speaker 2: couldn't cite it, couldn't quote it, but it was it's

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Speaker 2: nice to cover an election when you have like really

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Speaker 2: well informed information. Yeah yeah, but nobody else. That's not

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Speaker 2: the world.

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Speaker 1: It's not the world we live in these days where

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Speaker 1: I feel like, you know where I feel like even

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Speaker 1: the half I want to share something with you, You're like,

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Speaker 1: am I being worked?

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Speaker 2: I being used? Right? Like? And I'm sure you we're

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Speaker 2: all trying to end. Back in the days when they

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Speaker 2: were nightly.

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Speaker 3: Tracking, right, and there was a cycle when I won't

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Speaker 3: get specific at all, but where someone was reading to

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Speaker 3: me the numbers in house races that they were getting

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Speaker 3: from their tracking, and they would do a quarter of

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Speaker 3: the races on Monday Tuesday, another quarter on Wednesday Thursday,

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Speaker 3: and then the next week Monday Tuesday, another quarter and

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Speaker 3: so every other week they had.

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Speaker 2: They had current numbers with on all the rays and

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Speaker 2: uh yeah, we I look pretty smart that year.

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Speaker 1: So let me let's I want to talk about a

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Speaker 1: conundrum that I consistently talk about, but I'm not one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent sure what to do about it, which is,

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Speaker 1: we live in an era of weak political parties and

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Speaker 1: strong political alliances. Right, the Red and Blue has never

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Speaker 1: been stronger, and the d N r has never been

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Speaker 1: weaker discuss To me.

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Speaker 2: The decline was, we used to have two broad based,

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Speaker 2: ideologically and geographically diverse parties that overlapped substantially with conservative

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Speaker 2: Democrats that represented small town, small town rural areas of

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Speaker 2: the South, whatever, urban Republicans that represent major metropolitan areas

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Speaker 2: that George Voinovich's or Dick Luger or whatever, and that

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Speaker 2: each side had moderating influences and that and that the

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Speaker 2: people on the fringes were marginalized. And it was when

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Speaker 2: you started seeing the parties sorting out, and that basically

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Speaker 2: anybody that was remotely conservative abandoning the Democrat Party, anybody

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Speaker 2: remotely liberal abandoning the Republican Party. And suddenly you know

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Speaker 2: the distance between, like right now, the distance between the

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Speaker 2: most liberal and the least liberal ends of the Democrat

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Speaker 2: Party aren't that far apart, and the same thing on

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Speaker 2: the Republican side, most in least, and yet the gap

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Speaker 2: in between is the whitest it's ever been. And so

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Speaker 2: that you have two parties that have no overlap, no

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Speaker 2: agreement on any significant policy, no agreement on values, and

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Speaker 2: you know, it's borderline ungovernable. And but to me, it

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Speaker 2: was when the parties became less diverse and more monolithic

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Speaker 2: and were inward focused and not uh, they don't even

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Speaker 2: understand anybody that's not in their in their world. You know.

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Speaker 1: One of the theories I have, and it's just a theory.

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Speaker 2: I want to run it by you.

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Speaker 1: We were talking about it before we started taping, is

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Speaker 1: that when when we were ignorant about what voters believed

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Speaker 1: and what do I mean by that, which is there

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Speaker 1: was sort of a pattern of how of how campaigns

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Speaker 1: were run in the eighties and nineties and the modern

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Speaker 1: TV campaigns. And on October of the election year, Democratic

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Speaker 1: incumbent ran the ad that ragged about the Republican they

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Speaker 1: worked with to get something passed, and the Republican incumbent

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Speaker 1: and state X ragged about working with a Democrat to

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Speaker 1: get something done. Because there was this agreement that the

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Speaker 1: whoever was undecided by October must be vacillating between the

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Speaker 1: two parties. They might be some sort of centrist independent,

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Speaker 1: not just independent, but some sort of eh, they're a

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Speaker 1: little this, a little of that. They really want consensus governing.

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Speaker 1: So make the pitch who's the most believable consensus builder?

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Speaker 1: Is how you win over that vote. And then in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and four we learn more. Right, micro targeting

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Speaker 1: became something, and we found out and as the campaigns

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Speaker 1: learn more about these undecided voters, they realized, oh, they're

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Speaker 1: not centrist, they're independents who don't neatly fit into one

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Speaker 1: box or the other. But there are a handful of

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Speaker 1: issues that they like on our side, so let's exploit them.

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Speaker 2: Well, I highly commend your substock this morning on this,

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Speaker 2: and we're to me just wording it slightly differently. In

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Speaker 2: two thousand and four or probably three, Carl Rove and

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Speaker 2: his team would be probably met dud and Yon von

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Speaker 2: Lohausen and Melmott. Right, we're looking at the undecided is

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Speaker 2: the people that were really in the middle, and realize

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Speaker 2: those people really don't like President Bush and we could

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Speaker 2: spend the gross domestic product of many countries and never

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Speaker 2: win those people over, so that we either have to

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Speaker 2: conceive the election or figure out how to organically grow

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Speaker 2: our base because we're not going to get a dispurportant

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Speaker 2: share of the people in the middle. And they were

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Speaker 2: skillful enough, and we're a radial of ingenuity and we're

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Speaker 2: able to do that and to me, the whole world

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Speaker 2: went from persuasion oriented to get out your base. And

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Speaker 2: I think one was wrong, but the other's wrong. But

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Speaker 2: to me, you have to be able to walk and

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Speaker 2: chew gum at the same time. You need to be

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Speaker 2: able to persuade the people that are not locked into

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Speaker 2: either party. But at the same time you do have

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Speaker 2: to keep your base motivated. But right now, you know,

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Speaker 2: I think you've got four When we you know, think

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Speaker 2: back to the big state the swing state vote polls

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Speaker 2: that we saw in the last election, undecided would be

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Speaker 2: two percent. I mean like that. I mean in the

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Speaker 2: old days, you saw a poll like.

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Speaker 1: Some of the Okay, but there's also a part of

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Speaker 1: me that believes polling has gotten so so accurate due

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Speaker 1: to voter files that many times what we are calling

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Speaker 1: polls are kind of voter file projections with a little

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Speaker 1: bit of survey work, yeah, a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: little bit a little bit of modeling, Yeah, I feel like,

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Speaker 1: and so when you model it, I don't know. There's

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Speaker 1: a part of me that longs for the totally open

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Speaker 1: and don't go in there and give me a raw

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Speaker 1: data set and let me watch the raw data set

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Speaker 1: over time I feel like we're so locked into the

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Speaker 1: voter file companies because we want the most accurate potential poll.

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Speaker 1: Totally want that based on what we think the electric's

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Speaker 1: going to be.

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Speaker 2: Versus what could the electorate.

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Speaker 1: Be if you start with just a huge baseline on

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Speaker 1: adults and then go from there. And I do think, Nope,

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Speaker 1: there's no mainstream political operative looks at the campaigns that

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Speaker 1: way anymore. They almost begin with a voter file, which

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Speaker 1: means you begin at forty seven percent.

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Speaker 2: But let me look at it from a less technical Uh.

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Speaker 2: You know, it used to be someone who said, you know, Democrat, Republican, independent,

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Speaker 2: and then he said, well, do you lean Democrat, lean Republican?

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Speaker 2: And they would vote that way more often than not.

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Speaker 2: But right now when you look at people that say

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Speaker 2: I'm independent but lean Democrat and you look at their vote,

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Speaker 2: how they actually end up voting the virtually at partisan

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Speaker 2: as Democrats were the same thing on the on the

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Speaker 2: Republican side. So that what you've got is forty seven

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Speaker 2: forty eight percent locked in for either side each side,

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Speaker 2: and then the two or three percent in the middle

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Speaker 2: that we used to think of as centrist, you know,

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Speaker 2: equid distance between the left in the riot. They're not that. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: A lot of times these are people they read, watch,

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Speaker 2: listen to news, current events, less than partisans. They don't

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Speaker 2: follow politics. They are even more skeptical than other people

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Speaker 2: are about politicians and parties. And they vote in small,

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Speaker 2: very small numbers, and so, but there are no defections.

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Speaker 2: There are no democrats or independent democratically independents that will

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Speaker 2: ever vote for Republican and vice versa. So there is

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Speaker 2: no consensus. And we were talking before went on the air.

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Speaker 2: Was the last landslide defined as ten points or more? Yeah, well,

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Speaker 2: first of all, you have to give it to it

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Speaker 2: would be eighty four. And why not Age? Why not

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Speaker 2: eighty eight? Eighty eight? I looked at I was actually

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Speaker 2: just doing some of this. It has been wait, it's

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Speaker 2: been ten elections since we had a margin of nine

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Speaker 2: points or more. And that was Reagan eighty four and

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Speaker 2: this was eight points. I always thought that was a

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Speaker 2: bigger white. I think it it was. It was like

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Speaker 2: eight and seven and change. You're a little over eight.

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Speaker 2: But it did not round to It didn't round Reagan

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Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty rounded to ten. But I went into

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Speaker 2: a panic a week or two ago Dave Leap's political

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Speaker 2: atlas was offline, and I for like days and I thought,

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Speaker 2: oh my god, what are we going to do? Well?

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Speaker 1: It was interesting about the Bush docacas because I just

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Speaker 1: double checked it myself, because I you know, because Bush

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Speaker 1: got over four hundred electoral votes.

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Speaker 2: In your head, you.

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Speaker 1: Feel like, oh, that must have been a ten point victory.

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Speaker 1: And eleven point victory. Well that tells you something about

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Speaker 1: how you know, he won a lot of states close right,

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Speaker 1: in order to get in order to get his But

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Speaker 1: he won every if I'm not mistaken, he won every

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Speaker 1: big state but New York. Right, he won California, he

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Speaker 1: won Texas, and he won Florida, And you win those three.

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Speaker 2: That puts you in a well, that's you know, in

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Speaker 2: a way you could look at this last election say,

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Speaker 2: I mean where we are is that very small shifts

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Speaker 2: in votes are when you have parties that are diametrically

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Speaker 2: opposite of each other and the country is evenly, narrowly

402
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Speaker 2: deeply divided, really small shifts are enormously consequential, so that

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Speaker 2: you know, if someone normally would tell me that you know,

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Speaker 2: a Democratic nominee would get would would drop in ninety

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Speaker 2: percent of the counties of the country and drop in

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Speaker 2: ninety two out of one hundred demographic groups. You'd say, gosh,

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Speaker 2: they must have had the rear in hand. But the

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Speaker 2: parent's only lost by one, one point four or five percent. Well,

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Speaker 2: let me ask, let me frame this, because I think

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Speaker 2: this is a problem. The Democratic Party has an answer.

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Speaker 2: Did they lose by a little or a lot? Well? Right,

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Speaker 2: how do you behave as a party?

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Speaker 1: Do you behave as if you Because you know, Tommy

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Speaker 1: to let me give you some interesting framework.

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Speaker 2: I did this story about Wisconsin's polarization.

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Speaker 1: Right, I've always said that, you know, before America got polarized,

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin was there first, right the two thousand election.

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Speaker 2: You know, after Florida, Wisconsin was the next closest.

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Speaker 1: And Wisconsin has been consistently on Barack Obama's the only

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Speaker 1: one in the twenty first century who's been able to

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Speaker 1: win that state by a bigger than a couple of points.

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Speaker 1: And Tommy Thompson said something. I had had a joint

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Speaker 1: interview between him and Jim Doyle because they were the

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Speaker 1: last two governors to win by more than five points.

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Speaker 1: And Tommy said something, he goes, you know what, sometimes

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Speaker 1: you don't lose by enough to do what you need.

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Speaker 1: You know, when you only lose by a little, by

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Speaker 1: a point, you think, oh, but for one more fundraiser,

429
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Speaker 1: one more door knock, more better ad, you can win.

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Speaker 1: So you don't think you have to change that much.

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Speaker 1: When you lose by ten points, you think, huh, maybe

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Speaker 1: we need to rethink this.

433
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 2: Take the flip side of that. Let's say hypothetically a

434
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 2: someone wins the presidency by a margin of fewer than

435
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty thousand votes scattered across four states.

436
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 2: Their party only has fifty seats in the Senate, so

437
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 2: vice president breaking a tie, they lose seats in the House,

438
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 2: but hold on to a majority by what five six

439
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 2: and yet a mandate to do historic and transformational things. No,

440
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 2: he was barely one.

441
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 1: And to me you're describing I hope people realize you're

442
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:47,360
Speaker 1: describing twenty twenty.

443
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 2: Yes, and that I don't think. I think twenty twenty

444
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: was a reverendum up or down on Donald Trump, and

445
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 2: it was close, but Trump lost. But it was I

446
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 2: only Biden had anything to do with the outcome of

447
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 2: the two thou Then twenty twenty four, even with Biden

448
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 2: dropping out, it was a referendum up or down on

449
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 2: biden Care. And I don't think Donald Trump won that election.

450
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:17,719
Speaker 2: It's that Biden. Well, it was a repudiation of President Biden,

451
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 2: the Biden Harris administration and by extension, Vice President Harris.

452
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 2: It was up or down and that when Democrats were

453
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 2: so pissed off at number one, how did you blow Well,

454
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: first of all, how did you mismanage the economy in

455
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 2: your first year enough to drop fourteen points in job

456
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: approval rating in four months? And Afghanistan, oh, by the

457
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 2: way to border, So it's like you and then the

458
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 2: party gets ticked off and you lost. I mean it

459
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 2: to me, it was Democrats punted the presidency away, and

460
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 2: they will not acknowledge it. They will not that it

461
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 2: was their own damn fault. Yes, no, I believe that.

462
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're operating.

463
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 1: You know, as I've said, a few times, I'm not

464
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 1: sure they've lost enough yet to make the changes they

465
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: need to make.

466
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 2: We you know, I'm not not a corner or medical examiner,

467
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 2: what even a biology major, but I think when you

468
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 2: do an autopsy, one of the things you try to

469
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 2: do early on is figure out the time of death

470
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 2: and I think the death was in the first nine

471
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 2: months of twenty twenty one. Yeah, and that I fully agree.

472
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 1: Think about the fact I think about this, you know,

473
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 1: I go back and my thesis on this is that

474
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: following Charlie, which was and this is where I think

475
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 1: Trump is running into a potential juggernaut himself, a problem himself,

476
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 1: which is. The one thing the public thought Biden was

477
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: good at was phone policy. It was a core competency.

478
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: And when he failed on a core competency test, it

479
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 1: poisoned every everything else. You're like, boy, if you're terrible

480
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: at that, we already you know, well forget it this

481
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: whole thing, because what else explains that the minute he

482
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 1: loses altitude on that issue, Right, he was at fifty

483
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 1: three in July, and he goes down to forty five,

484
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 1: and he never gets there again, right drops below forty five,

485
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 1: never gets there again, and at that moment and he

486
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: never can recover. It tells me that the public never,

487
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: never was, never was bought into him. And then the

488
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 1: minute he fails on something they thought wasn't going to

489
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: be an issue, and Joe Biden informed policy, the one

490
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 1: thing that he was a perceived expert on and this

491
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: is where I think Trump is. You know, Trump was

492
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: elected for one reason, fix the economy, and the economy

493
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 1: is yeah, I like, I mean, I.

494
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 2: Like your framework, but let me frame it slightly differently. Okay,

495
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 2: that Biden had run for president in and eighty eight

496
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 2: and two thousand eight, comes in fourth place in Iowa,

497
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: comes in fifth place in New Hampshire. The party starts

498
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 2: looking around and realizing that they're, you know, the the

499
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: that Bernie was consolidating the left, eclipsing Warren, that the

500
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 2: center left was split, you know, basically twelve fifteen ways

501
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 2: with Bloomberg getting in and the party panics and Clyburn moves,

502
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: and that Biden won the nomination because he wasn't Bernie

503
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 2: Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

504
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 4: Right, He didn't win on a on a up here

505
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 4: he went. He won because of who he was, not

506
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 4: because of who he was, right, and then won the

507
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 4: general election because he wasn't Donald Trump. But the thing is,

508
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 4: they thought they were.

509
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 2: Going with a guy to be coming in around the

510
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 2: forty yard line thirty seven thirty eight, forty yard line

511
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 2: left of midfield, but not that far. That's what they

512
00:29:55,880 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 2: thought they were getting. But that's sort of they didn't

513
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: govern that way. Look, I do.

514
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: Ron Klain came in as chief of staff, and I

515
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: didn't expect this. He ended up being much more progressive

516
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 1: and much more with his ear to the ground on

517
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 1: the on the on the groups than I think any

518
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: of us thought. As I joke with about Ron, he

519
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: wasn't Evan Buys, he wasn't even by Democrat anymore.

520
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I think that each of the parties has

521
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 2: become so inward focused that they don't and part of

522
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 2: it maybe goes back to your two thousand and fourth

523
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 2: thing is they've become so internally focused that they have

524
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 2: no comprehension of what anyone that's not in their base

525
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: thinks or views anything. And that, I mean, I think

526
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 2: one of the things that's keeping Trump from I mean,

527
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 2: his numbers are ready, I mean they're you know.

528
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: Good, right, and it's like, yeah, yeah, dependally one of

529
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 1: those that's ready to say forty five to the new fifty.

530
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 2: It has been the last ten years. But yeah, yeah,

531
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 2: But that's because of the decisions that people make. But

532
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 2: the thing is he he thinks he hit the power ball,

533
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 2: just the way Biden thought he hit the power ball,

534
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 2: when basically you won because who you weren't. But but

535
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 2: the thing is, I think one of the things that

536
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: props him up some is that there are issues that

537
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 2: Trump has correctly identified as something that a decent share

538
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: of the electorate thinks is important, and so he gets

539
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 2: the direction right, but overdoes the degree, so that I

540
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 2: think I think a lot of most wing voters think

541
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 2: that no president modern time has done jack on the border.

542
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: Now Trump, maybe he went too far or border immigration,

543
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 2: but at least they agree with the direction he's going.

544
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 1: Oh, I've always thought democrats misinterpreted, you know, when the

545
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: public didn't like what.

546
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 2: Trump was doing at the border in the first term.

547
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: They didn't like the tactics, they liked the goal, and

548
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: I think Democrats, particularly those presidential candidates, so that I

549
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: you know, I was on that stage moderating that debate

550
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 1: when they all raised their hand to decriminalize the border,

551
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 1: other than Biden, right, which was, my god, the smartest

552
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: hand he never raised.

553
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 2: And you're like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

554
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: You're you know, the public didn't like the act I

555
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 1: always say this, what makes up Look, populists are usually

556
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 1: pretty good at identifying issues they're really bad about implementation

557
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 1: and execution. And I think Trump identified the issues that

558
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 1: the public does care about his execution they don't like,

559
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 1: and Democrats misinterpreted that dislike of the execution is dislike.

560
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 2: Of the idea, and that was the mistake. Well, I mean,

561
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: I think it's direction and degree. I would say the

562
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 2: same thing on trade, there's a feeling like, well, we

563
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 2: we've been taking advantage of some So he correctly figured

564
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 2: out a direction that was a source of frustration for people,

565
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 2: but overdid it, you know, with the terris, I would say,

566
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: keeping restraining the growth in government. Got the direction right,

567
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 2: but the degree way off, and so he he's they

568
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: don't have the ability to calibrate.

569
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: Let me throw something else at you because it gets

570
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: it to what you were discussing, because you said something

571
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: interesting to me before we were talking that the last

572
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 1: time a president won by more than ten points and

573
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 1: had big majorities in Congress is basically LBJ sixty four.

574
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: But there's another phenomenon that I you know, that I

575
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 1: like to point out in my talks, which is I

576
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 1: note that six of the last basically for the entire

577
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: twenty first century, right starting with two thousand, counting that

578
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: election as a twenty first century election. Six of our

579
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 1: last seven presidential elections have been decided by five points

580
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 1: or less. In the entire twentieth century, Charlie, we only

581
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 1: had five decided by five points or less. Right, And

582
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: in fact, the last time in the twentieth century, the

583
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: latest election that was decided by five points or less

584
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,399
Speaker 1: in the twentieth century was sixty eight.

585
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 5: Well, and we've had a series of what three one

586
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 5: term and two terms. We have had straight one termers

587
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 5: since the nineteenth century.

588
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 2: We didn't have that.

589
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 1: We didn't have that once in the where we had

590
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 1: three straight presidencies where we chose a different party.

591
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I mean basically, when they reupt with

592
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 2: h W after eight years of Reagan is the only

593
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 2: time you know, certainly in our lifetimes, in anybody else's lifetime,

594
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,800
Speaker 2: that that's happened. But to me, when I get to

595
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 2: the forty seven forty eight, this forty forty eight percent,

596
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: and then you have this little group of people in

597
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 2: the middle that they're not there's no they have no

598
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 2: coher or an ideology whatsoever. I mean, they're all over

599
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 2: the all over the place, or or more importantly, they

600
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 2: don't vote for anybody or anything they vote against the

601
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: who I'm matt at, disappointed in or afraid of. And

602
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 2: so no matter who wins, there's not a democratic mandate.

603
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 2: There's not a republican mandate. There's not a liberal, conservative, progressive, populist, libertaire.

604
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:31,720
Speaker 2: There are no mandates anymore. So that if a party,

605
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 2: if someone got elected president, was smart enough to just

606
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,840
Speaker 2: kind of aim towards that forty yard line on whichever

607
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 2: side they're on, they've got a fair chance of sticking

608
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:44,399
Speaker 2: around for a while.

609
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 1: Look, it's not lost on me that Obama is the

610
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: last president to at least try the whole red you know,

611
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:52,720
Speaker 1: the whole unity message.

612
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 2: Any won by He's only one, the one by more

613
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 2: than five, right, he won by six. Right.

614
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 1: He did as you said, He did the walk and

615
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 1: chew gum. He expanded his part artie base, you know,

616
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 1: and he did that with micro targeting. But he also

617
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:08,400
Speaker 1: had a closing consensus message to try to persuade.

618
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 2: You know, have a He won.

619
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 1: As I always say, there's two types in two thousand

620
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,760
Speaker 1: and eight. We have two types of presidents in my lifetime,

621
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 1: what I call the fifty percent presidents and the sixty

622
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,959
Speaker 1: percent presidents. Right, those that strove for a sixty percent

623
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: approval rating, they know they'd never win sixty percent of

624
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 1: the vote, but they wanted. You know, Reagan and Clinton

625
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 1: believed they were winning if they had a sixty percent

626
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: job rating. And now and then it was Bush who said, well,

627
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 1: I only need fifty percent plus one to win. And

628
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 1: when that became, right, when we dropped six fifty, when

629
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 1: fifty became the new sixty, and we, by the way,

630
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 1: talking about doing it everywhere, including in the filibuster, right

631
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 1: when we stopped, Like to me, that's not lost on me,

632
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 1: when we dropped the judicial nomination process essentially from needing

633
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 1: sixty to needing fifty, we have an entirely different polarized judiciary, right,

634
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 1: we have a judiciary polarized by ideology.

635
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 2: When we were going for sixty, we were actual looking

636
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 2: for umpires. Well, first of all, there's no reason to

637
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 2: have a US Senate anymore. I mean, they were it

638
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 2: is boy, that's a hot take. There is no reason

639
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 2: clip that. Lord, there is no reason to have a

640
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 2: US Senate anymore. It's Charlie. And the thing is, and

641
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 2: I say this as someone who who started the freshman

642
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 2: in college working in the Senate. I'm a Senate guy.

643
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 2: Iized the Senate. I don't. For me, the beginning of

644
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 2: the end was when the First Reconciliation Act was done,

645
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 2: and when when you needed sixty votes for something contentious,

646
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 2: when you dropped it so you could just jam the

647
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 2: hell out of the other party. And you know, I

648
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 2: think people are like voters are like animals in the center.

649
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 2: You put them in a quarter and you if they

650
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 2: feel threatened, they're they're gonna lash out. And it's it's

651
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 2: it's it's when they drop the threshold down to basically

652
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 2: majority to avoid filibuster. It's lowering the conference the the

653
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 2: I mean, which one of these controversial cabinet members or

654
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 2: justices would have had a chance of getting sixty votes

655
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 2: in the Senate. None of them.

656
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 1: And maybe Scott Bessett he might have gotten sixty. Well,

657
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 1: I don't put him in the controversial category, right, I

658
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 1: don't either. Absolutely Rubio would have gotten that, which because

659
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 1: he did.

660
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay, I'll give you a Rubio. But

661
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 2: it's it's when people feel threatened that they do things

662
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:42,280
Speaker 2: that they otherwise wouldn't and that now we see people

663
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 2: in politics doing things. Everything's existential everything, And I don't know.

664
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 2: When I got up there, it sure as hell wasn't

665
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 2: like that. And so is this something that we had, like,

666
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 2: you know, are you a belief? To get this back?

667
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: We actually have to probably put some erect to guard

668
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 1: like we had norms that handled this and now we don't, right,

669
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 1: And I think that, you know, I think about.

670
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 2: What does if we want to sort of.

671
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 1: If we want to reanimate the republic post Trump, we

672
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: might actually have to make some large changes, not small ones,

673
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: and maybe they are constitutional.

674
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 5: Yeah.

675
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:27,360
Speaker 2: I've been playing with the idea of a book about

676
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 2: how it's what we've been talking about, how things went wrong,

677
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 2: why they went wrong, And I think, at least in

678
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 2: my mind, I think I'm going to got it down,

679
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 2: but I don't as a solution, I don't have one

680
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 2: I see that could explain it all that I had

681
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 2: heard it incredible one And it's it's kind of cheesy

682
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 2: to write a book that goes into chapter and verse

683
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 2: how bad things are and how they got there and

684
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 2: not offer any hope but all on the other end

685
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 2: of it, you know, I.

686
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 1: Will say this, I think that if you look at

687
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: our country's history, every time we've had a robust third

688
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 1: party challenge. It sobered up the two parties, right, whether

689
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: it was Roosevelt in nineteen twelve.

690
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 2: What I could argue is, if you look at the.

691
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 1: Various moments where we've had a insurgent challenge from the outside,

692
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 1: George Wallace, Teddy Roosevelt, Ross Pureaut, that the outcome changed

693
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 1: the two major parties in a way to prevent that

694
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 1: from happening again for one reason or the other. You know,

695
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 1: I've always looked at ninety two as it really ended up,

696
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:46,800
Speaker 1: arguably in the short term, giving more definition of both parties.

697
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 2: Right.

698
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 1: It made Republicans a little more sensitive on trade, made

699
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 1: the Democrats a little more fiscally, a little more sensitive

700
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,320
Speaker 1: on deficit and fiscal issues.

701
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 2: Right.

702
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton is not a deficit minded president without Ross purerout,

703
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 1: and I don't think that the Republican already moves towards

704
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 1: this protectionist mindset without Rossborough.

705
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 2: Let me put a slightly different frame on it. Generally,

706
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 2: when we've been heading down the tubes, they'd been the

707
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 2: great person came along or the big event, and the

708
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,879
Speaker 2: great person. We've been lucky because that happened a lot.

709
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 2: The question I have is would the great man, would

710
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 2: the great woman? Would they run for elective office? And

711
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 2: how would they win a primary? Yeah, and you can't

712
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 2: win the general. You can't win the presidency if you're

713
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 2: not one or the other because of the electoral college.

714
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 2: And so you say, well, okay, what about event. Okay,

715
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 2: let's then attack on the contrary. Okay, that worked for

716
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 2: a couple of years after nine to eleven, and then

717
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,760
Speaker 2: it kind of came undone. And then you say, okay,

718
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:00,439
Speaker 2: maybe a once a century public health crisis. Oh wait,

719
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 2: that made that worse. And so if the great man

720
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 2: or woman is unlike to get in or get anywhere,

721
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 2: and if the big event either has a short shelf

722
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 2: life or makes things worse, there's only one other solution, Charlie.

723
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 2: It's control old delete, it's reboot, and yeah it is rough.

724
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, and I don't pretend to understand how that works. Yeah, no,

725
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 2: I look, it's funny you say that.

726
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 1: On the solutions, I get very micro and some solutions,

727
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 1: like I think uncapping the house could have a huge

728
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 1: impact in a positive way if we double, if we mandated,

729
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 1: I actually came up with a percentage point zero zero

730
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 1: zero one percent of the population. No district should ever

731
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 1: be bigger than that represent more than that which right

732
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 1: now would put congressional districts at one per four hundred thousand,

733
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:01,919
Speaker 1: one per eight hundred thousand, which is where we're sitting.

734
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 1: You double, you'd be essentially double the size. You'd make

735
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 1: gerrymandering less necessary, not saying you wouldn't have it less

736
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 1: impactful perhaps, and you might lower.

737
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 2: The barrier of who could be in congress.

738
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 1: Right in theory, I don't think it's there is if

739
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 1: you're well, but smaller districts should allow more working class

740
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 1: people to want to run.

741
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,320
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I mean the thing is, I mean I've

742
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 2: heard you talk about expanding the house when you know,

743
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 2: I think you'd probably just get more of the same thing.

744
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think size is the issue. Well,

745
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 2: but is it? Is it closer to the people?

746
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: And that's my issue is that I think right now,

747
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,880
Speaker 1: every congressional district when you're when you're the size of

748
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 1: a major city, eight hundred thousand is the size of Austin, Texas,

749
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:53,360
Speaker 1: which is the fifteenth largest city in America. Charlie, you

750
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 1: can factionalize is does Austin speak as one?

751
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 2: Right?

752
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,880
Speaker 1: You can factionalize and take charge of a community of

753
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 1: eight hundred thousand. Weirdly, in a community of four in

754
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 1: one thousand, you might actually have to have more consensus.

755
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 2: See, I'm trying to figure out whether the state of

756
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, with four hundred State House members for a

757
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:20,240
Speaker 2: state that's only big enough for two CDs, am wildly independent.

758
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 2: I don't know New Hampshire. I think New Hampshire is

759
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:28,239
Speaker 2: some of the smartest voters in the country. Because of that,

760
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 2: it's also is not terribly representative of a lot of places.

761
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 2: But you know, but I.

762
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: Not to full of de tooke fall on you. But

763
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,280
Speaker 1: that's what he marveled at. He thought it was amazing

764
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:41,720
Speaker 1: our townships and stuff.

765
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 2: I thought, we love that. Part of the problem is

766
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 2: that people aren't learning civics, they aren't learning history, and

767
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:58,279
Speaker 2: they're not learning economics, and that the idea of federalism.

768
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 2: And I know you've too long ago read the Federal's

769
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 2: papers from start to finish, the concept of separation of

770
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 2: powers and why we have a separation of powers. And

771
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 2: I don't think Donald Trump's record federalist papers.

772
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,320
Speaker 1: By the way, Charlie, excuse me, I don't think Donald

773
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 1: Trump's ever read a federalist paper.

774
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm not going there, but I know

775
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 2: that there were reasons why this system was built this way,

776
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 2: and reason why the Senate was made this way and

777
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:29,279
Speaker 2: the House was made this way, and the check I mean,

778
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:32,799
Speaker 2: and you know, each of the three coequal branches were

779
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 2: designed to be able to keep either of the other

780
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 2: two from getting too powerful. I mean, it was a

781
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 2: brilliant I always look back.

782
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 1: The fact is they foreshadowed every potential problem we're facing,

783
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 1: and they had a solution for it.

784
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 2: We just don't. As I say, the tools are there,

785
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 2: we're just choosing not to pick them up. And I'm

786
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 2: part of it blame education, but part of it is

787
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 2: that there's getting into your other favorite subject. People don't

788
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 2: can see now, I mean the share of people that

789
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:17,239
Speaker 2: have any coherent intake of news in any systemic way,

790
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 2: as opposed to just sort of a la carte, just

791
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 2: sort of pick up whatever accidentally comes in over your

792
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: Facebook or something, so that we have leaders that aren't

793
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 2: worthy of leaders and voters that aren't really doing the

794
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 2: due diligence that a voter should do. They're not taking

795
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 2: their citizenship as seriously as we wish that and other

796
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 2: than that, everything's fine. All right, let's close with this.

797
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 1: I want to wrap up on a land the plane

798
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:51,799
Speaker 1: here because you know, the real going back to where

799
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 1: we started, which is the almene equ American politics. You

800
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 1: know what really sucks for all of our friends that

801
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: actually have to put the book together is if there's

802
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 1: a massive redist thing in the middle of the decade

803
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 1: and they have to rewrite all the profiles.

804
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 2: I just I mean, what a nightmare? What do you make?

805
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 1: Where is the where does this end? I mean if

806
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:13,839
Speaker 1: we basically go down this road of a redistricting war

807
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 1: between the states, right where I'm really uncomfortable where one

808
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 1: person says, Hey, this is you're disenfranchising us in State XS.

809
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,279
Speaker 1: So we're going to disenfranchise voters in state Why to

810
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 1: get back at you for State X?

811
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 2: That doesn't end well? Well, and when if you don't

812
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 2: like the outcome of elections, you change the rules, right,

813
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,320
Speaker 2: that's what you on both sides do. I mean to me,

814
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 2: unless you've got a court order, there should be no

815
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 2: cracking open districts during a decade. And I do think

816
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:47,399
Speaker 2: that the Supreme Court decision in the whatever common calls

817
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 2: that that was basically we're not going to look at

818
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 2: the federal course, are not going to look at Jerry

819
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 2: Mannering for political purpose is they're not going to throw

820
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:02,800
Speaker 2: you know, to me, that was one of the worst

821
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 2: decisions ever. And that's that's a big you know, uh

822
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:11,360
Speaker 2: that that's a big that's a big charge. Yeah, I'm no.

823
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 2: I mean, if you're going to say, what are the

824
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 2: top ten or bottom ten? Yea, But it is a race.

825
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 2: It's a race to the bottom. And I have to

826
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 2: kind of modulate my outrage and uh well, I mean

827
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:26,320
Speaker 2: I does feel like, here's my frustration.

828
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 1: Nobody seems to be saying, you know what, we shouldn't

829
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 1: be doing this in either state, right, Like, where's that

830
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 1: set of leaders. I don't mean to sound Pollyannish and

831
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:39,360
Speaker 1: you know, yelling screaming at the cloud, but I'm stunned

832
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 1: that nobody thinks it's good politics to say, you know what,

833
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 1: this is bad in Texas and this is bad in California.

834
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 2: Hard stop. Yeah, I mean, as far as I'm concerned,

835
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 2: I wa, I mean, for the lad I would never

836
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 2: point to California as a fair district, the original one,

837
00:48:57,200 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 2: you know, the one that's in place right now. I would.

838
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 2: But to me, Iowa, I think Iowa was about the

839
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 2: straight up drawing of Well. Now, granted it's a lily

840
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 2: white state and all the counties are square.

841
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:15,240
Speaker 1: So you know, my my grandfather in Iowan as an engineer,

842
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 1: and he's proud of those he was proud of those

843
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 1: square lines.

844
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 2: God damn it. You know it was it made sense.

845
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,400
Speaker 2: But there the thing is, I mean my theory is that,

846
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 2: you know, the standard used to be compact and contiguous,

847
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 2: and then the compact got winned away when well, to

848
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 2: create more minority districts, we're going to have to fudge

849
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 2: a little on this compact thing.

850
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 1: And that was a big moment, wasn't it. The ninety

851
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:43,879
Speaker 1: one reapportionment set us on this road.

852
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. When you start creating on compact on one thing,

853
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 2: it it it basically spreads out to other things. And

854
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 2: it's also that was the first cycle where you had

855
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 2: Republicans working with minority Democrats. Yeah. No, it was an

856
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 2: interesting going I mean, there's but it was compact and

857
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 2: contiguous work pretty damn well. And when compact went out

858
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:13,839
Speaker 2: the door, out the window, that's when we started going

859
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 2: down this horrible path, at least on the districting part

860
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 2: of it.

861
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 1: All Right, Let's get to the last most important thing

862
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 1: I like to talk to you about, which is who's

863
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:28,240
Speaker 1: got who's in better shape politically? Donald Trump or Brian

864
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 1: Kelly head coach of LSU football. Can he survived Donald

865
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 1: Trump has to survive twenty twenty six midterms? Will Brian

866
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 1: Kelly be the head coach of LSU football in twenty

867
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:39,799
Speaker 1: twenty six?

868
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 2: There are so many reasons why I shouldn't address this

869
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 2: and won't, but getting into with Chuck Todd a belt

870
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 2: sports is not something's good. I'm guessing LSU fans have

871
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 2: pretty high bar this year, don't they. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

872
00:50:57,239 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 2: I'll admit it to one game the whole school year

873
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 2: down there, it's uh, are you teaching this semester or springs? Now?

874
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 2: My teaching career is over. But uh OHSU was very

875
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:09,120
Speaker 2: good to me, and they were very, very very nice

876
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 2: people and stuff. But uh, that's a lot. Teaching is

877
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 2: a heck of a lot harder than I ever ever

878
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 2: thought it would be dreamed it would. Wasn't it pretty rewarding?

879
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 2: Give you a little bit of hope? Yeah, I mean it.

880
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 2: I think the pandemic and devices have done a lot

881
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 2: to undermine the ability of people below a certain age

882
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 2: to do what their older brother sisters, and you know

883
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 2: parents were able to do. And I think it's a

884
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 2: I think it's it's a it's a real challenge, and

885
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 2: I think it faces you know, any any just about

886
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 2: any state, in any state, any university. I think that's

887
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 2: a I think the pandemic really did not only a

888
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:08,320
Speaker 2: rest arrest development, but took some away. And you know,

889
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 2: I always thought, you know, I teach class. If I

890
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 2: ever taught teacher, first of all, the first book would

891
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:17,359
Speaker 2: be What it Takes Richard ben Kramer. Now you can

892
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 2: no more hand a class one thousand page book than

893
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:24,800
Speaker 2: Fly to the Moon. I know you're hand in that

894
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 2: book and be like, good luck. It's always no I

895
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 2: only it's dated and stuff. But I know way anyway,

896
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:32,800
Speaker 2: but they were very they were very good to me,

897
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 2: and my esteem for the profession knows no bounds.

898
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 1: Now you are right about that, well, Charlie Cook. It

899
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 1: is always a pleasure to hear you. Look the mid

900
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:46,360
Speaker 1: do you have, I mean the midterms.

901
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 2: That's the first time I think the word midterm has

902
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:50,320
Speaker 2: come up, I know. And I was just going to

903
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 2: say because in some way.

904
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 1: We're trying to you know, the midterms are going to

905
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:56,800
Speaker 1: be a coin flip, and yet we're going to probably

906
00:52:56,920 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 1: take away way too much from them, aren't we.

907
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 4: Yeah.

908
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 2: I I The thing is that I've started, I've I've

909
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 2: moved to using major party vote and you know three

910
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 2: Trump averages and the Hillary uh, Hillary, Joe Biden, Kamala

911
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 2: Harrison and then major major vote and then rank order,

912
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 2: and when you do red blue, you're just looking to say, well,

913
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 2: it's a after after, but sheher Steve Basheer is turned

914
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:35,399
Speaker 2: out in Kentucky after you at the next and lawn,

915
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 2: Kelly the governor of Kansas has turned out there, Yeah,

916
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 2: and Glenn Younkin and Virginia's turned out turned out. So

917
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 2: basically you're left with Phil Scott and Kelly Ayot will

918
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 2: be the only governors of either party. They are in

919
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:56,400
Speaker 2: the other colors the other states color for governors, and

920
00:53:56,800 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 2: and Susan Collins the only one, the only one in

921
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 2: the Senate. And so it's all the action is in

922
00:54:03,040 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 2: fourteen states. And I know you're trying to cut the

923
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:13,520
Speaker 2: but to me, it says a lot that Republicans have

924
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 2: won only four of the twenty one Senate races in

925
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:22,400
Speaker 2: Purple States since Donald Trump has worn into office. But

926
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 2: at the same time, because Democrats have ten out of

927
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:31,960
Speaker 2: the fourteen Senate races in Purple States, Yeah, making really

928
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:36,360
Speaker 2: hard for them to make up and to get the fifty.

929
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 2: And each party is screwed in a different way.

930
00:54:41,200 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's astonishing that it was that the Democrats were

931
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:47,839
Speaker 1: at sixty for a brief period in two thousand and nine.

932
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:50,759
Speaker 1: You think, boy, I don't know when they'd ever see

933
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 1: I don't know if they've seen sixty at our lifetime,

934
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 1: but you never know.

935
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's but I do think that if a party.

936
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 2: I was having coffee with a group of senators within

937
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:06,360
Speaker 2: the last year and someone say, well, do you have

938
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 2: any advice, I say, yeah, you use your use your

939
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 2: go at your brains and not your glance when you

940
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:22,319
Speaker 2: make decisions. I love you were very careful. You were

941
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 2: like I got to pick my words here just right. Well, also,

942
00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:27,319
Speaker 2: I was kind of reaching for it, but IM trying

943
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 2: to remember the term I used because I know what

944
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 2: I would use on a on a Yeah, if you

945
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:37,359
Speaker 2: weren't being recorded, Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. Well we'll let

946
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 2: we'll let the audio. That's the beauty. We'll let them,

947
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:42,239
Speaker 2: We'll let them imagine the word you were out. This

948
00:55:42,320 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 2: has been a whole lot of fun. Chalk all right,

949
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 2: but I missed this, the almainic of American politics. Go

950
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 2: grab it in two weeks coming out brother, see chock.

951
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 5: Thank you,