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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: We have Crystal. Indeed, we do big, big developments in

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Speaker 1: Russia's war against Ukraine over the weekend. That Ukrainian counteroffensive

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Speaker 1: highly effective, stunning, shocking, sunning, stuffy, so big moves there

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Speaker 1: will tell you all about that. Also, new indications from

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Speaker 1: the Fed they're going to continue their aggressive move of

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Speaker 1: hiking interest rates. That comes in spite of the fact

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Speaker 1: that one of their own economists is warning that their

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Speaker 1: moves could cause a severe recession, so important to follow

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Speaker 1: that as well. New developments in the midterms Republicans realizing

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Speaker 1: that their original strategy of hey, let's just talk about

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Speaker 1: inflation is not landing the way that it once was,

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Speaker 1: especially now that gas prices look they're still high, but

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Speaker 1: they have come down quite significantly since June. We also

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Speaker 1: have some new legal developments for former President Trump now

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Speaker 1: his and we've covered this from the beginning his Save

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Speaker 1: America pack, which was all about We're going to stop

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Speaker 1: the steal. And he raised like one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: million dollars or something for that, and then they spent

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Speaker 1: none of it on any like hardly any of it

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Speaker 1: on any election related activities. That is coming under scrutiny

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Speaker 1: now by a DC grand jury as well, so we've

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Speaker 1: got the details of that. The same time, we do

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Speaker 1: not want to lose sight of the fact that in Jackson, Mississippi,

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Speaker 1: residents still cannot drink the water. They are still under

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Speaker 1: a boil advisory. The mainstream media is already losing interest

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Speaker 1: in the story, but some new stunning pictures coming out

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Speaker 1: of Jackson as well. Was a federal investigation into exactly

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Speaker 1: what the hell is going on there. Yesterday, as you

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Speaker 1: guys know, was nine to eleven. We've got some clips

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Speaker 1: from just before the planes hit the Twin Towers and

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Speaker 1: the Pentagon, just to remember what it was like before

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Speaker 1: that moment, the way that nine to eleven turned everything

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Speaker 1: upside down. The trajectory been on since then, So a

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Speaker 1: little bit of reflection we're going to do there. Jeff

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Speaker 1: Stein is going to join us to talk about the

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Speaker 1: legal effort to overturn Biden's student loan debt relief action. Okay,

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Speaker 1: with all of that out of the way, saga, what's

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Speaker 1: going on in Ukraine? Let's start with ukraine stunning development.

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Speaker 1: So we brought everybody the news on Thursday. There was

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Speaker 1: an initial campaign in which Ukraine seemed to be suffering

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Speaker 1: some pretty major losses. Now it turns out that that

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Speaker 1: was actually a faint attack of what we were watching

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Speaker 1: and what has now resulted in a absolutely stunning victory

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Speaker 1: on the part of the Ukrainian forces and a humiliating

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Speaker 1: defeat on the battlefield so far for the Russians. Go

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Speaker 1: and put this up there on the screen. I chose

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Speaker 1: the most complicated map that I could possibly find because

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Speaker 1: all of my research, I think actually just looking at

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Speaker 1: it from a territorial perspective doesn't really convey just how

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Speaker 1: complicated and really sophisticated the attack was by Ukrainian forces.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a link down to this tweet in

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Speaker 1: the description so everybody can go and look at it

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Speaker 1: for themselves. It has the exact units, the exact forces,

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Speaker 1: where are the attacks occurred, and all that. But the

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Speaker 1: top line, here's what you need to know. Now. According

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Speaker 1: to the Ukrainian military forces, they have seized three thousand

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Speaker 1: square kilometers of territory. For those who are wondering, that's

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Speaker 1: about one thousand, one hundred square miles. Again, that is

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Speaker 1: coming from the Ukrainian Military Defense Forces, so not exactly

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent reliable. Now. What we do know though,

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Speaker 1: in terms of what's actually happened on the ground, is

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians have obviously seized major towns and areas in

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Speaker 1: the quote Kharkiv Oblast Oblast being region in Ukraine. The

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Speaker 1: reason that this matters is that that oblast really was

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Speaker 1: serving as the jump off point for future Russian operations.

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Speaker 1: The fact that the tranes were able to take and

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Speaker 1: seize so much territory so quickly, only in a couple

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Speaker 1: of days. One of the things I mentioned our last

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Speaker 1: show is they really don't have that long and that's

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Speaker 1: something that Zelenski himself acknowledged ahead of the fighting season,

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Speaker 1: is that by reclaiming this Kharkiv Oblast, they have retaken

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Speaker 1: and push back Russian defense lines away from a potential

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Speaker 1: jump off point that they could use in order to

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Speaker 1: seize full military control of the entire eastern dun Boss

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Speaker 1: in La Hunt's region. So everything that I've read so

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Speaker 1: far on this is that it really is a stunning

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Speaker 1: advance in combined arms operations and in maneuver warfare. It

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Speaker 1: reminds actually a lot of people of the nineteen seventy

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Speaker 1: three Israeli push in the Yam Kapor War. It also

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Speaker 1: reminds us the tank is still very very useful in warfare.

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Speaker 1: Geeks like myself are very interested in that watching it

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Speaker 1: see be very effective. Let's say the next one up

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Speaker 1: there on the screen, which is that the Ukrainian Army

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Speaker 1: is saying that it has essentially tripled the retaken area

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Speaker 1: just in the last three days, so forty eight hours,

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Speaker 1: you know, thousands of square kilometers eleven hundred square miles

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Speaker 1: of territory gain. Now, of course, all news organizations, including US,

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Speaker 1: have to make the caveat We cannot verify the Ukrainian figures.

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Speaker 1: What we can verify is that even the Russians are

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Speaker 1: claiming that they have had to pull back, they have

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Speaker 1: confirmed they've pulled back their defensive lines. And the reason

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Speaker 1: why that these particular towns mattered so much is they

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Speaker 1: were major hubs for supply lines and really what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing is a humiliating crumble for the Russian defenses and

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Speaker 1: their inability both to solidify supply lines. Some of the

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Speaker 1: videos that are coming out here are stunning for a

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Speaker 1: great power military. You're seeing tanks straight up abandoned and unsupplied,

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Speaker 1: with no gas, no maintenance. I mean, clearly, this is

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Speaker 1: unprecedented for a great power military to show such basic

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Speaker 1: incompetence in shoring up your supply lines, shoring up your defenses.

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Speaker 1: And look, I mean there's no doubt it the Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: would not be able to do this out with the

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Speaker 1: United States without US provided weaponry and all of that.

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Speaker 1: But this is just not supposed to happen in the

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Speaker 1: annals of great power war. To watch. It is just

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Speaker 1: I mean stunning. There's barely words to describe what's happening

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Speaker 1: right now there. That's right. What military expert said that

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Speaker 1: this advance from Ukraine marks the first time since World

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Speaker 1: War Two that whole Russian units have been lost. That

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Speaker 1: gives you a sense of the scale of the defeat here.

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Speaker 1: And I mean, first of all, it's incredibly humiliating for Russia.

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Speaker 1: It's incredibly humiliating for Putin. They are even you know,

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Speaker 1: in Russian state media having to acknowledge that there were

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Speaker 1: defeats that they had to retreat. I mean, they put

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Speaker 1: a spin on it like where we're gathering for the

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Speaker 1: next defensive. But some of the images that are coming

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Speaker 1: out too, and some of the reports say, you know,

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Speaker 1: these Russian soldiers are like right away, they literally were

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Speaker 1: like dropping their rifles, running, taking civilian clothes from the

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Speaker 1: local residents, and stealing their bicycles to try to escape.

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Speaker 1: So this was not like some you know, organized retreat.

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Speaker 1: Even this was everybody like fleeing for their lives, is

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Speaker 1: at least what the reports coming out are. And we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk a little bit about how even the

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Speaker 1: sort of like hard right ultra nationals. Russian bloggers are

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Speaker 1: melting down over this, which puts a lot of pressure

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Speaker 1: on Putin domestically as well. And we've always talked about how,

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Speaker 1: you know, as hawkish as Putin is, there is a

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Speaker 1: much more hawkish contingent in the Russian body politic and

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Speaker 1: also within the Kremlin to keep an eye on as well.

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Speaker 1: So as important as this is for Ukrainian morale, that's

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Speaker 1: you know, really significant. We had said before that this

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Speaker 1: was kind of Zelensky's put up for shut up moment.

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Speaker 1: The winner is coming. If they were going to be

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Speaker 1: able to make any significant advances back into the territory

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Speaker 1: that had been that had been taken by Russia, this

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Speaker 1: was really the time to do it. While they showed

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Speaker 1: they could do that, and you know, that allows them

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Speaker 1: to go and make the case to US and other

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Speaker 1: European allies, hey, look what we can do. When you

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Speaker 1: give us the weapons, we are able to make advances,

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Speaker 1: we can win this war. So for Zelensky and the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian's incredible morale boost and credible sort of like tactical

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Speaker 1: strategic boost in terms of Putin, this is really a

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Speaker 1: difficult moment for him because they're in the exact opposite position. Remember,

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Speaker 1: he really thought at the beginning of this thing that

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Speaker 1: they could wage this war without the Russian population really

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Speaker 1: being taxed or stretched or really feeling it. And so

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Speaker 1: as this was all going on, they were having these

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Speaker 1: big celebrations in Moscow, trying to pretend like life was

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Speaker 1: going on as normal, big fireworks display, and there even

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Speaker 1: some people were saying, like, this fireworks display looks like

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Speaker 1: you're celebrating the Ukrainian military given the day that it's coming.

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Speaker 1: So it's becoming increasingly untenable for him to be able

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Speaker 1: to continue to prosecute this war without a broader national mobilization,

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Speaker 1: which by the way, is exactly what the hard right

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Speaker 1: factions are pushing for. So it really is a difficult

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Speaker 1: position that he's in right now, and it sort of

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Speaker 1: undermines his whole project and branding effort that he's set

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Speaker 1: up over decades now to portray himself as this tough

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Speaker 1: minded life leader and the strategic genius as they have

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Speaker 1: these incredibly embarrassing defeats. Now, let's be clear, Russia still

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Speaker 1: holds a lot more territory than they did before this invasion.

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Speaker 1: There is a lot more that the Ukrainian military would

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Speaker 1: have to do to push them back to the February

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Speaker 1: twenty fourth lines, let alone back to you know, all

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Speaker 1: the way out of the original Ukrainian territory. But in

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Speaker 1: terms of when this is coming in the overall context,

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Speaker 1: it's hard to understated just how significant it is. Right,

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Speaker 1: and Zelenski also casting everything in terms of the winter.

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Speaker 1: Let's put this up there. In his Saturday at dress,

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Speaker 1: he said that the harsh winter will determine the fate

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Speaker 1: of Ukrainian independence, that the country's fate lies on what

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Speaker 1: happens in the next couple of months. They said, this

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Speaker 1: is the most difficult winter for the world. Russia is

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Speaker 1: doing everything in ninety days of this winter to break

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Speaker 1: the resistance of Ukraine, the resistance of Europe, because this

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Speaker 1: is what Russia hopes for. This is its last argument.

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Speaker 1: These ninety days ahead will decide more than thirty years

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine's independence, ninety days that will decide more than

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Speaker 1: all the years of existence of the European Union. Winter

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Speaker 1: will determine our future, casting it very much as you know,

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Speaker 1: really the decisive point. Winter is coming. Listen. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, if I live there, I would think of

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Speaker 1: the same thing. It's a tough winter out there, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: so it's interesting from a couple of perspectives, which is

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Speaker 1: that number one. I mean, look, this is the Ukrainian

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Speaker 1: military did show it's fighting capability, let alone the fact

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Speaker 1: that with US assistants where it's at did lead to

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Speaker 1: a battlefield victory. Now, as you said and cautioned, the

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Speaker 1: Ukraine's minister Defense minister actually came out this morning saying

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Speaker 1: he's like, look, our guys are tired. They've been fighting

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Speaker 1: six days straight. This is a tough thing. A lot

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Speaker 1: of Western analysts are pointing out that listen, if the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainians do get too far ahead of their skis, they

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Speaker 1: could stretch their supply lines and would be vulnerable to

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Speaker 1: counter attack. The Russians are regrouping currently in the east.

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Speaker 1: They are making their defense lines as impenetrable as possible,

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Speaker 1: and now they are launching basically a full scale air

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Speaker 1: campaign against the town and the region of Kharkiv. They're

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Speaker 1: launching a lot of rockets, bombs. They wiped out power

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Speaker 1: for the city and for the region. Some of it

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Speaker 1: has been restored, but they're making it a full scale

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Speaker 1: total war. So don't you know, obviously don't count them

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Speaker 1: out just yet. But I don't think there's a way

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Speaker 1: to describe it other than just an absolutely stunning fold.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the way it is is that Ukraine, the

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Speaker 1: way the Russians are gathering, are a government governing it,

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Speaker 1: militarily campaigning there is they have four different regions that

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Speaker 1: military commanders are in charge of. You effectively had the

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Speaker 1: collapse of the entire northernmost region of that force. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that would be like it's difficult to describe in a

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Speaker 1: US context, but I mean, just imagine, you know, a

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Speaker 1: regional commander just effectively folding in seventy two hours. Again,

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Speaker 1: it just does not happen for great power military. So

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Speaker 1: clearly they have a lot of issues, supply issues. The

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Speaker 1: North Korea stuff looks a lot more important in this

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Speaker 1: context where it seems that they've been having major ammunition

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Speaker 1: and resupply problems as well. So maybe they're a lot

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Speaker 1: closer to crumbling than people think, although you know, he

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Speaker 1: should also be cautious of what that possibility. So once again,

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Speaker 1: you know, Ukrainians sees about three thousand square miles of

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Speaker 1: tear ritory at their very very best, that's what they're

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Speaker 1: claiming the Russians still hang on to a significant portion

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine that they did seize from the very beginning.

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Speaker 1: But this is just no question. I mean, this is

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Speaker 1: going to boost morale in Kiev apparently there, you know,

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Speaker 1: there's absolutely jubulant atmosphere, the same in the West, you know,

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Speaker 1: and the Pentagon. We don't want to underscore that this

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Speaker 1: was done with a tremendous amount of US help. Let's

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Speaker 1: put this up there, which is that the Ukrainian officials

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Speaker 1: drew heavily actually on US intelligence to plan the counter offensive.

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Speaker 1: They basically the Ukrainians were able to use use US

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Speaker 1: resources to identify key Russian targets and effectively US satellite

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Speaker 1: intelligence and other intel that we were able to gather

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Speaker 1: who knows, you know, from where and more were used

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Speaker 1: by the Ukrainian military to drop exactly where they wanted

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Speaker 1: to attack. And it does seem clear that right that

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Speaker 1: obviously our intel identified They're like, well they have resupply

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Speaker 1: issues here, this general you know, think their troops here

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Speaker 1: probably conscripts. They are, you know, the least amount of morale.

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Speaker 1: It's like you should faint here an attack right here.

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Speaker 1: But yes, I mean for military people were interested in

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Speaker 1: the military campaigns like me, like this is this is crazy.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this really will be studied for a long time. Yeah. Well,

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Speaker 1: and that is part of why they were able to

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Speaker 1: be so successful, because you know, we were talking about, Okay,

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Speaker 1: they're preparing for this counter offensive, one is a coming,

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Speaker 1: what's going on, and they were really focused on the

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Speaker 1: more southern region of Ukraine. And so there are reports

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Speaker 1: that Russia sent their more seasoned troops in that direction

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Speaker 1: and left them more vulnerable in this northeast area. And

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Speaker 1: now apparently there's still a plan to move forward with

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Speaker 1: the counter offensive in the Kharsong region down in the south.

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Speaker 1: But going so strong and so hard in the northeast

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Speaker 1: really allowed them to sort of trick the Russians into

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Speaker 1: letting their guard down up there, and that's part of

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Speaker 1: the story of why they were able to have such

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Speaker 1: a stunning victory and success over such a short period

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Speaker 1: of time. But that too, even that sort of tactical

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Speaker 1: feint that they deployed here, which obviously was extraordinarily affective,

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Speaker 1: kind of has US fingerprints on it. They say that

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Speaker 1: the decision by Ukraine to tout its counter offensive in

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Speaker 1: the south before striking the northeast is a standard technique

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Speaker 1: for misdirection used by the American Special Operations troops who've

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Speaker 1: been training the Ukrainians since the annexation of Crimea in

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Speaker 1: twenty fourteen. They have a quote here from the top

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Speaker 1: Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia and the Obama administration.

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Speaker 1: She says, these guys have been trained for eight years

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Speaker 1: by Special ops. They've been taught about irregular warfare. They've

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Speaker 1: been taught by our intelligence operators about deception and psychological operations.

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Speaker 1: So even that decision and the way they approach this

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Speaker 1: has US fingerprints on it. And the other thing they

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Speaker 1: talk about here is, I don't know if you guys

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Speaker 1: remember we covered before how the US actually had more

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Speaker 1: insight early in the summer into what the Russians were

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Speaker 1: doing on the battlefield than what the Ukrainians were because

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Speaker 1: of course, over decades and decades, we have developed all

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Speaker 1: kinds of intelligence assets to help us understand what the

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Speaker 1: Russians are up to. But with Ukraine, which was an ally,

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Speaker 1: we didn't have the same sort of insight, and they

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Speaker 1: were very reluctant to to share what exactly they were

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Speaker 1: up to and how exactly it was going according to

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Speaker 1: this report, at least they have now started to coordinate

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Speaker 1: more directly and share more information so that the US

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Speaker 1: side could be more useful and could you know, really

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Speaker 1: help them in terms of intelligence sharing. So that's a

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Speaker 1: piece of this as well. But listen, it was the

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Speaker 1: put up or shut up moment. We sent them, you know,

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Speaker 1: tens of billions of dollars weapons, We've been training them

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Speaker 1: for almost a decade, and this is the result where

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Speaker 1: just before the winter hits, they are able to have

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Speaker 1: this incredibly successful counter offensive which is absolutely humiliating for

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Speaker 1: Russia and could could be a real game changers. They

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Speaker 1: deserve credit where due I didn't personally think they could

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Speaker 1: do it, and they did, and they deserve that credit

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Speaker 1: because it's a tremendous thing. I mean, when you can

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Speaker 1: beat a great maur military in any battle like this,

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Speaker 1: unlike you know, the I mean, if you think about it,

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Speaker 1: the US never quote unquote lost military campaign in Iraq

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Speaker 1: or in Afghanistan. We were defeated strategically. This is an

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Speaker 1: actual practical defeat on the battlefield. Yeah again, I mean,

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Speaker 1: you don't see this happening. It does not even considered

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Speaker 1: within the realm of possibility. So obviously, obviously you know

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Speaker 1: it happened with Kiev and all that, but you know,

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Speaker 1: I personally thought, you know, given the ability and the

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Speaker 1: given the strategic advantage that you have when you take

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Speaker 1: territory and you're on the defensive, to just crumble like this, Yeah, Sonny,

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Speaker 1: I do want to one more warning before we move

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Speaker 1: on to the next part, which is also very revealing

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Speaker 1: about the sort of Russian psyche and mindset, which is

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Speaker 1: that now we have to see what the response is.

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Speaker 1: And as we've warned from the beginning, the more desperate

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Speaker 1: your adversary gets, you know, that can be a scary

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Speaker 1: situation as well, and Putent domestically under increasing pressure as well,

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Speaker 1: to show that this can be a success, that they

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Speaker 1: can still win this war in some sort of way,

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Speaker 1: because you know, I mean, the original idea of oh,

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Speaker 1: we're just going to march in the Kiev is going

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Speaker 1: to be over in a few days and the Russian

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Speaker 1: public is barely even going to know what's going on.

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Speaker 1: Obviously that didn't pan out, and now they're having massive

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Speaker 1: separ but I mean, when things will really get difficult

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Speaker 1: for Putin, as if they are faced with retreating even

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Speaker 1: back beyond those February twenty fourth lines. So we'll see

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Speaker 1: if the Ukrainians are able to get there were a

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Speaker 1: long way from that. Absolutely big moves here domestically, with

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Speaker 1: obviously global implications as well. But of course you know

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Speaker 1: that the FED has been hiking indust rates to try

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Speaker 1: to get inflation under control, even though, of course the

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Speaker 1: fed's indust rate hikes can't really directly impact the major

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Speaker 1: causes of inflation. But nevertheless they continue down that direction

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Speaker 1: and in a very aggressive fashion. And we got new

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Speaker 1: indications last week that they plan to one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: continue this course. Let's go ahead and put this up

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Speaker 1: on the screen from the Wall Street Journal. So this

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Speaker 1: is Lael Brannard, who is seen as more of a

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Speaker 1: dovish figure within the FED. She's the number two policy maker,

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Speaker 1: and she still is saying that, yes, at some point

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Speaker 1: in the tightening cycle, the risks will become more too sighted,

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Speaker 1: but she says that they need to keep going. If

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Speaker 1: history is any guide, it's important to avoid the risk

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Speaker 1: of pulling back too soon. Following a lengthy sequence of

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Speaker 1: adverse supply shocks to goods, labor, and commodities that, in

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Speaker 1: combination with strong demand, drove inflation to multi decade highs.

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Speaker 1: We must maintain a risk management posture to defend against

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Speaker 1: the risk consumers and businesses will expect higher inflation to continue.

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Speaker 1: So Saga, she's saying full steam ahead. They are not

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Speaker 1: changing course, even though there are some indications that inflation

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Speaker 1: has come down, even though it certainly gas prices have fallen,

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Speaker 1: even though there are major risks on the other side

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Speaker 1: of pushing the economy into a severe recession with massive

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Speaker 1: impacts in terms of unemployment, in terms of you know,

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Speaker 1: consumer and just regular American pain, they still have no

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Speaker 1: intention of changing course. Yeah, absolutely, Senator or Elizabeth Warren,

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Speaker 1: who look, you know, many disagreements aside. I think she's

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Speaker 1: actually done a decent job when discussing the fad. She

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Speaker 1: was actually on CNN discussing this. Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 1: What he calls some pain means putting people out of work,

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Speaker 1: shutting down small businesses because the cost of money goes

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Speaker 1: up because the interest rates go up. So it sounds

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Speaker 1: like you do think it's a mistake to raise interest rates. Again,

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Speaker 1: I am very I am very worried about this because

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Speaker 1: the causes of inflation, things like the fact that COVID

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Speaker 1: is still shutting down parts of the economy around the world,

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Speaker 1: that we still have supply chain canks, that we still

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Speaker 1: have a war going on in Ukraine that drives up

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Speaker 1: the cost of energy, and that we still have these

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Speaker 1: giant corporations that are engaging in price gouging. There is

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Speaker 1: nothing in raising the interest rates, nothing in Jerome Powell's

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Speaker 1: tool bag that deals directly with those and he has

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Speaker 1: admitted as much in congressional hearings when I've asked him

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Speaker 1: about it. There you go, yeah, it's actually I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: it's true. He said it won't do anything about gas.

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Speaker 1: The reason gas prices are down right now have much

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Speaker 1: more to do with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which we

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Speaker 1: are begging the Biden administration to release for months, and

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Speaker 1: they've depleted about a third of the spr so far.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I think that's fine. You know, we

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Speaker 1: topped it up during the pandemic specifically for reasons like this.

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Speaker 1: But that's the reason that gas prices have gone down.

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Speaker 1: We'll go into that at a little bit more. Same

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Speaker 1: on food, I mean, food is dramatically impacted more by

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Speaker 1: the supply chain, by natural fertile by fertilizer rates nitrogen

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Speaker 1: and by drought. Then it has anything to do with demand.

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Speaker 1: Demand has you know, some to do with it, of course,

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Speaker 1: but that's the only thing they can control, and they're

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Speaker 1: going after that. I mean, on the one hand, it's

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Speaker 1: very difficult for me because I also see some companies

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Speaker 1: which relied on cheap cash or Google. For example. Google

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Speaker 1: has come out and they're like, well, guys, effectively soon

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Speaker 1: doctor Chai is like, we need to boost productivity by

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Speaker 1: twenty percent, effectively admitting that cheap cash and was underwriting

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Speaker 1: a whole lot of Google expansion and basically just like

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Speaker 1: Google screwy. That probably was the case at the very

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Speaker 1: much on the corporate level, so some of that quote

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Speaker 1: unquote tightening had to happen. But Google will survive. With

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Speaker 1: small businesses, they actually may not survive. And the people

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Speaker 1: with you know who, unemployment impacts and all that, they

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Speaker 1: especially are really hurting. I'm worried about housing. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the fact that the average mortgage rate continues to come up.

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Speaker 1: I think it's like six percent right now, more than

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Speaker 1: double fastest rise in modern history, crushing the housing market.

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Speaker 1: Housing market obviously needed to come down some, but you know,

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Speaker 1: we also need new housing stock, and a lot of

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Speaker 1: that new housing stock it either goes on pause and

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Speaker 1: construction or just doesn't get sold. Yeah, which that's the

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Speaker 1: other part. That's that's exactly right. I mean, it is really,

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Speaker 1: it really is a complicated situation because on the one hand,

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Speaker 1: the fact that you have had effective zero interest rates

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Speaker 1: for so long, you have created this incredibly financialized economy.

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Speaker 1: This like like bizarre and unsustainable froth companies that really

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Speaker 1: don't deserve to exist and aren't profitable, but because cash

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Speaker 1: was so easy to come by, they could just continue

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Speaker 1: and continue and continue massively inflating asset bubbles, which has

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Speaker 1: been a huge driver of inequality. So that you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're someone who owns stuff and you know, those

431
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 1: prices kept going up and up and up. We didn't

432
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: call it inflation at that point, but that's what was

433
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: going on with assets and certainly with the housing market.

434
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 1: So if you're on the lucky side of that divide,

435
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: that was great for you for a lot of years.

436
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 1: So on the one hand, yeah, it's inevitable and it's

437
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 1: not a bad thing to pull that frauthtback because that's

438
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 1: part of what has been driving inequality. On the other hand,

439
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:18,119
Speaker 1: while you know it was great for didn't really benefit

440
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 1: a lot of people on the way up. It was

441
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 1: a small sliver. It is really really going to be

442
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 1: devastating there's a severe recession. This all comes back to

443
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 1: the fact that you have Congress and you know, most

444
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 1: of our government that is sort of unable to really act,

445
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: that is stuck in gridlock, that is unable to be

446
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: responsive to the needs of American people. So, for example,

447
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 1: Matt Stellar is floating. What you really need is higher

448
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: rates for big companies to get some of this frost out,

449
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 1: and lower rates, lower interest rates for consumers and small

450
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 1: businesses so that they're able to borrow and do the

451
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: things that they need to do and be able to

452
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: hire and expand and survive this difficult time. But unless

453
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: there's some mechanism I am not aware of with the

454
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 1: FED that would have to come through government congressional action,

455
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 1: and of course we're nowhere in side of that. So

456
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: it really is very difficult. But the worst possible world

457
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 1: is that you have continued inflation because you aren't dealing

458
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: with those real problems, and as Elizabeth Warren says, and

459
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 1: you have a severe recession, that's exactly what one FED

460
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 1: FED economist is warning of. They don't want to talk

461
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 1: about this, but this was a report some research that

462
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: was done here under the fed's umbrella. Here this is

463
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 1: reporting from our friend Ken Klippenstein. He says, fed's own

464
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: economist warns of severe recession from Chair Pala's rate hikes.

465
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 1: That study, which was published back in July and sort

466
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 1: of swept under the rug, was conducted by the Federal

467
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: Reserve Board Ofment Governors, and they're saying this is very

468
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: reminiscent of actions taken by the FED in nineteen twenty

469
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: that led to a severe recession. It was a very

470
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: early similar dynamics. You just come out of the Spanish

471
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: flu at that time, of course, that killed sixe hundred

472
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 1: fifty seven thousand Americans. Many of those who died were workers.

473
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 1: That meant there were more job openings than workers to

474
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 1: fill them, so the surviving workers had more bargaining power.

475
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: You had a tight labor market. What does this all

476
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: sound like, You had rising real wages. The study doesn't

477
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,439
Speaker 1: mention it. Labor strikes were also proliferating that were spurred

478
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 1: by that low unemployment rate. So all a very similar

479
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: landscape to what we're facing now. Also, like today, consumer

480
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: spending was also recovering then because World War One had ended.

481
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: Now of course, because of the pandemic being over, despite

482
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: the strong job market, inflation was also relatively high, and

483
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 1: for similar reasons. The quote from the study says, at

484
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: the end of World War One, the US was experiencing

485
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: strong growth and unruly inflation, driven apart by an expansionary

486
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 1: fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy. That's exactly what we

487
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 1: had now. We had low interest rates, that's the accommodative

488
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 1: monetary policy. But we also had stimulus in the form

489
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 1: of direct checks and other support during the coronavirus pandemic.

490
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: So very similar things there. And what they said is

491
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: in nineteen twenty, the federal Reserve banks hiked their discount

492
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 1: rates to tain inflation, and the US economy entered a

493
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:06,640
Speaker 1: severe recession now known as the Depression of nineteen twenty.

494
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: And what they say, and their warning here is that

495
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 1: the it's not that interestrate shouldn't be raised at all,

496
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: but you've got to be really careful because there's a

497
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: delay between when you hike the rates and when the

498
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 1: impact hits. And so if you just keep hiking and

499
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: hiking and hiking without waiting to see how that's going

500
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 1: to impact the economy. You can end up tripping the

501
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:33,120
Speaker 1: economy into a severe recession because there is that delay

502
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 1: in the tightening and how it hits. So that's what

503
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: they're warning about. Yeah, no, I mean, look, it's very

504
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 1: interest I mean their counter would be the counter to that, right, is, well,

505
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 1: we came out of it, and we had the Roaring twenties.

506
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: It's like, well there was still a terrible Yeah, a

507
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 1: lot of people did suffer in nineties, took a couple

508
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: of years, so the Roaring twenties to really take off,

509
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 1: and you know, not like things worked out all that

510
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 1: well at the end of the nineteen twenties, So it's

511
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 1: not like the structural problems we're fixed. You wouldn't want

512
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: to use that as your model to Yeah, exactly what

513
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,919
Speaker 1: anybody's pointing to any economic policy between nineteen nineteen and

514
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: nineteen twenty nine as quote unquote effective. Probably not the

515
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,479
Speaker 1: best thing to do, and not exactly a path that

516
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: we would go down. Look, the economy also is fundamentally different.

517
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: The fact is that we're probably much more financialized today

518
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: than we ever were before. So in a way we

519
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: may actually may even be more vulnerable to rate hikes

520
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 1: like that than before. And for how we come out

521
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 1: of it and the possible ramifications of that, I'm really worried.

522
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,199
Speaker 1: I'm probably most worried about housing, you know, because that

523
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: back then we didn't have the same level of housing crisis,

524
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 1: but you could quite more easily build housing if you

525
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: needed to. There was a big housing boom all throughout

526
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: you know, the post eighteen hundreds, all the way up

527
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:43,120
Speaker 1: until even nineteen fifty, so some of the supply constraints

528
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: and other plus were much more globalized, vulnerable to major

529
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:50,439
Speaker 1: global supply shocks. I'm especially worried about Europe and the

530
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 1: effect of their energy crisis as well, not the only one.

531
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: A lot of people are talking about it, even apparently

532
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 1: the White House this morning. Yeah, we report out that

533
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 1: the White Houses thinks that one of the biggest feet

534
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 1: when they're biggest spears, is that the European energy crisis

535
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 1: will bleed home and actually drive up the price of

536
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 1: oil and will only continue inflation on the onward trajectory

537
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,719
Speaker 1: as rate hikes are going up. Another thing to remember,

538
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 1: Europe also just hiked their rates by point seventy five. Yeah,

539
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 1: that's right, that's right. I mean even the housing market

540
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 1: thing is complicated because, as we cover before, a lot

541
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 1: of people cheering for the house. Yeah, I mean, it's

542
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: too why the prices are insane. First time buyers have

543
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: been completely priced down. Now, there are more effective ways

544
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 1: to do that than cratch the economy. The biggest one

545
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: is to build more houses. I mean, that's one of

546
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: the huge issues that we have, is a lack of

547
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 1: supply of housing, and especially affordable housing. But really housing

548
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: of all kinds and hiking interest rates is actually counterproductive

549
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: in terms of increasing the housing supply. That's number one.

550
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,439
Speaker 1: Number two, there's some impact from permanent capital buying up

551
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: so many houses. I mean, we were talking about in

552
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 1: some of these cities it's like a quarter to a

553
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 1: third of the homes being purchased are from private equity

554
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 1: and other permanent capital. Or that also is creating more

555
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 1: demand and creating more competitive landscape where if you don't

556
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: have that, you know, the whole thing in cash are

557
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 1: close to it very difficult to be able to compete.

558
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,120
Speaker 1: You also have in some local markets the impact, which

559
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 1: you know is big picture positive, but can be very

560
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 1: difficult in individual places where because of the work revolution

561
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 1: coming out of the pandemic, where more people are working

562
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 1: from home, working remotely, more people are just like changing

563
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: their careers altogether and changing their priorities to life. You

564
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 1: had some of these cities that if you're coming from

565
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 1: San Francisco or you're coming from New York and you're

566
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: moving into Boys or wherever, and you've still got your

567
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: New York and your California, Soyle, you're bidding up the

568
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: housing prices locally, making things very difficult as well. So

569
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 1: even with the housing market, it's it's sort of complex because, yeah,

570
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: a lot of people would really like prices to come down,

571
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 1: but crashing the economy and by the way, when mortgage

572
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: rates are very high, that also makes housing unaffordable not

573
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: the best way to achieve that. End. Good morning, everybody,

574
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

575
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal. Indeed, we do lots of

576
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: interesting news that we are looking at this morning. So

577
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: first of all, some big questions about just how accurate

578
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 1: the midterm polls are a little bit of deja vous here,

579
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 1: so a lot of caveats about some of the numbers

580
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: you may be seeing coming out. Nate con at the

581
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 1: New York Times has been digging into that, so we'll

582
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,479
Speaker 1: break all of that down for you. Also, the very

583
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: latest developments in terms of that Ukraine counter offensive wildly

584
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: successful thus far, they continue to gain ground. What does

585
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: it mean and what is the reaction within Russia? That

586
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: is also very interesting. Now we have a vote coming

587
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: up allegedly on gay marriage, some real questions of or

588
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: whether Democrats will be able to pull sufficient Republican votes

589
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 1: to overcome the filibuster. Some new updates about who is

590
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 1: in and who is out in terms of that vote

591
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: and what all of that means. Also, some new legal

592
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: developments with regard to Trump and the whole Nie world

593
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: actually very interesting. So you had send this to me

594
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: last week. Steve Bannon out there saying like thirties I

595
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 1: think he said thirty six people's homes were rated, right, Well,

596
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: maybe not exactly accurate, but we have just learned that

597
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: something like forty subpoenas were served to various former Trump

598
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: aids and accolytes just in the past week. So major

599
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: escalation in terms of the DOJ's effort there. We also

600
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: have an update for you on our good friend Brian

601
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: Stelter where he is headed next Today for real, Jess

602
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 1: Stine is going to join us to talk about some

603
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 1: technical issues with Jeff yesterday, but today we feel confident

604
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 1: we're going to get him in to talk about the

605
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 1: legal case against student loan debt being crafted by Republicans. Okay,

606
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: so let's start with the polls. Big breakdown from Nate

607
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 1: Cone over at the New York Times, seeing a lot

608
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 1: of the same signs that we saw in twenty twenty

609
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: that the polls in some key states are once again

610
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 1: overstating Democratic support. So let's go ahead and put this

611
00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 1: first piece up on the screen. Here line here is yes,

612
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: the polling warning signs are flashing again. Let me read

613
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 1: you a little bit of this, because I think it

614
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 1: is very illustrative. This one example they give in particular,

615
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 1: he says that early in the twenty twenty cycle, they

616
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 1: noticed that Joe Biden seemed to be outperforming Hillary Clinton

617
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 1: in the same places where the polls overestimated her support

618
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 1: four years earlier. The pattern didn't necessarily mean the polls

619
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: would be wrong. It could have just reflective mister Biden's

620
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 1: promised strength among white working class voters, for instance, but

621
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: it was a warning sign. Of course, that warning side

622
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: did turn out to be correct in twenty twenty. Of course,

623
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 1: Joe Biden did win. But you'll recall some of the

624
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 1: polls were wildly off, especially in places like Ohio, Wisconsin,

625
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: sorta of the industrial Midwest has been a real issue

626
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: for polsters lately, so they give the example of Wisconsin.

627
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 1: On paper, they say the Republican center Ron Johnson ought

628
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: to be favored to win re election. The five thirty

629
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 1: eight fundamentals index, for instance, makes him a two point favorite. Instead,

630
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 1: the polls have exceeded the wildest expectations of Democrats. The

631
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 1: state's gold standard Marquette Law School survey even showed the

632
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: Democrat Mandela Barnes leading mister Johnson by seven percentage points.

633
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,239
Speaker 1: But in this case, good for Wisconsin Democrats might be

634
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 1: good too good to be true. The state was ground

635
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 1: zero for Survey EIR in twenty twenty when pre election

636
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: polls proved too good to be true for mister Biden.

637
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 1: In the end, the polls overestimated him by about eight

638
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 1: percentage points. Early enough, mister Barnes is faring better than

639
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 1: expected by an almost identical margin. Now most pollsters, he

640
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: also says, haven't made significant methodological changes since the misses

641
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty. I mean, at least after twenty sixteen.

642
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 1: There was a theory of why the polls might be better.

643
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: In twenty sixteen, they had a theory about why they

644
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: were so auth It was like, oh, we're underestimating. We're

645
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 1: not looking at the education stash and class status, we're

646
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: undercounting white working class voters in particular. Okay, we've made

647
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 1: the adjustments this time, We've got it. And then twenty

648
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 1: twenty comes through and you have a very very similar

649
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: pulling this in some of the very same states that

650
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: they missed it in twenty sixteen. But this time around,

651
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 1: the poster didn't really even pretend to know why. There

652
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: were some theories, and there was some conjecture that we

653
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 1: covered like liberals or home during the pandemic, or liberals

654
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 1: are just really excited to answer polls, but nothing was

655
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: really adjusted in the methodology. So it would follow that

656
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 1: you may have some of the very same polling errors

657
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 1: that you had last time. This is the thing I

658
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: don't understand, which is that and people who are polling

659
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 1: nerds might recall this the polls in twenty twelve were

660
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: actually very good. Everybody remembers Nate Silver the five thirty

661
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 1: eight website called like almost all fifty states, like most

662
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 1: of the Senate races. His book became a national bestseller.

663
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 1: I mean me, many others were like, oh my god,

664
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 1: it's been finally been cracked, And I think, really what

665
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: has happened is that Trump genuinely did change everything about

666
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: American politics. He changed the type of people who voted,

667
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 1: He changed the type of people who came out, basically

668
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: made the models of the people who do come out

669
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 1: to vote just completely change in the demographics and traditional

670
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 1: ones that you could use. And from that point forward,

671
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 1: they just haven't been able to figure out. In a way,

672
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: it's like a reflection of our society. We've got a

673
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: political realignment going on. We have a much more online population,

674
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 1: people not answering phones as much, and at a certain point,

675
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 1: the industry also just doesn't know what to do. And

676
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: it does make it so that many of these have

677
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 1: to be greeted by people like ourselves. We have the

678
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: best data that we possibly can. Yeah, but unfortunately most

679
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 1: people in the media, Crystal are not giving the caveats.

680
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 1: Outside of this one guy, and even he's been criticized.

681
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,879
Speaker 1: I saw some people people the Democrats, predictably, are like, well,

682
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: no one's ever wrong for understating Democratic support. It's like, well,

683
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 1: that hasn't happened like eight years. Yeah, So you know,

684
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 1: I don't know where you're coming from. Yeah, yeah. And

685
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: I mean there are occasional polls, like, for example, Colorado

686
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 1: seems to be a state where the polls kind of

687
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 1: consistently underestimate Democratic support. So there are a few states

688
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 1: that are like that, but overwhelmingly the issue has been

689
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 1: in the other direction. Actually, in states where you have

690
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 1: a large white working class vote. I think it's I mean,

691
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 1: this is speculation because no one really knows exactly why

692
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 1: this is going on. But I think it's not just

693
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: changing who's voting, the types of people are voting, the

694
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: coalitions of the various parties. But I think with Trump,

695
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 1: you have such an overt like anti institution messaging and

696
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 1: orientation that he's also making his voters more skeptical of

697
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: responding to polls and you know, talking to pollsters and

698
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: those sorts of things. So I think that might be

699
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:31,760
Speaker 1: part of it as well. But you know, like everybody

700
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: else I don't really know. Let's take a look at

701
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: this next piece, which is a chart showing if the

702
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 1: polling miss is as big as it was in twenty twenty,

703
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 1: what will the results actually look like. And let me

704
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 1: just go through these. So in Colorado, basically right now,

705
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 1: the poll says DEM is plus nine. If there's a

706
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 1: twenty twenty like Pole error, the dem will win by nine,

707
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 1: So Colorado is pretty much on the money last time around.

708
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: In Pennsylvania, right now, the polls have Fetterman up by eight.

709
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 1: If you have a twenty twenty like Pole error, you

710
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: will end up with Fetterman by five, so he still wins,

711
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 1: but by less. In Arizona, you cut the DEM lead

712
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: from eight, which is reflecting the polls, down to six.

713
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: In Wisconsin, this is the big one. You cut the

714
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 1: DEM lead from four to a Republican win by four.

715
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 1: In Nevada, you have plus three for the Democrats right now.

716
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 1: That one would be true top toss up less than

717
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 1: one for the Dems. In Georgia right now you've got

718
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: plus two. Georgia has been fairly accurate, and lo and behold,

719
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:37,760
Speaker 1: george is also one of the states where the polling

720
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 1: has continued to be very very tight, basically in line

721
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: with what your expectation would be for that state. North

722
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 1: Carolina right now is showing down plus one. With that

723
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: twenty twenty like pole Air, you get plus two Republicans. Ohio,

724
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 1: this is another big, big one again industrial Midwest, large

725
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 1: white working class voter base. Right now you've got Tim

726
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,760
Speaker 1: Ryan the Democrat, leading by less than one percentage point

727
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 1: with an error similar to twenty twenty. You've got Jadvance

728
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 1: easily winning here by seven points, which I think is

729
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,279
Speaker 1: more in line with what you would expect. Florida is

730
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 1: the last one on the list here. Right now they

731
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 1: have Marco Rubio leading that the Republican by five. If

732
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 1: you have a twenty twenty like pole Air, Mark Rubio

733
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 1: will easily win that race by eleven points. So if

734
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 1: you look at this in totality, first of all, you

735
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: see the Senate. The race for the Senate to control

736
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: the Senate is extremely extremely close. Republicans only have to

737
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 1: net one single seat, So essentially you're looking at probably

738
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 1: control of the Senate coming down to very close races

739
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 1: in Nevada and Georgia to determine control of the Senate.

740
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 1: If you look at and This is the commentary from

741
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 1: Holly Ottobin. Here, she says, as it happens, the if

742
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 1: polls were as wrong as they were in twenty twenty

743
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 1: column from today's New York Times story, seems more in

744
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 1: line with where political insiders actually think these races are. So,

745
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: you know, our general rule of thumb here has been,

746
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: especially in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, to

747
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 1: knock a few points off of the Democratic whatever their

748
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 1: polls are saying. That's kind of a good rule of

749
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 1: thumb if you look at this charge, oh completely Look,

750
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 1: I mean, the idea of runaway Democratic victories in these

751
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 1: formerly quote blue wall states. I just think it's a fantasy.

752
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:23,839
Speaker 1: Has been since twenty sixteen. The Fetterman plus five as

753
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 1: opposed to plus eight eleven or whatever people are saying.

754
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: That reads much more in line with what Pennsylvania appears

755
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 1: to be. Still think plus five for fetomen Yeah, it's

756
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: probably still too over stated, exactly. I mean, listen, Trump

757
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 1: one Pennsylvania in two thousand and six. There it's just

758
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 1: a very closely divided state. He only one pen lost

759
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania by one percentage point. It's like in that environment

760
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: there's just no way a Democrat is gonna win by

761
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 1: eleven points. Even if they do win, it's going to

762
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: be like Virginia where Glenn Youngkin, how much do you

763
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: win by like one point five percent point in an

764
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:56,280
Speaker 1: absolute red wave victory. So that's what people have to consider.

765
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 1: Same Wisconsin. Everyone's like, oh, Ron Johnson and listen, we'll

766
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 1: talk about Ronjohnson later in the show. Maybe he's trying

767
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,879
Speaker 1: everything to do to lose, but he did that last time,

768
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 1: and he also won basically coming out and you know,

769
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 1: defying the polls. You also found this which I thought

770
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 1: was really important. Let's put this up there, which is

771
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: that those of us who were in twenty eighteen, the

772
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,879
Speaker 1: media cast it very much as a blue dem wave.

773
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 1: But as Philip Bump points out here, you know, twenty

774
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 1: eighteen was not the outlier that people think. Senate polls

775
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 1: that year were also very off the mark. It's the

776
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 1: national House polling, which wasn't everybody focused on Pelosi and

777
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:32,240
Speaker 1: all of that. But I remember also at the time

778
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:36,399
Speaker 1: people were considering, oh my gosh, Marsha Blackburn might lose

779
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 1: in Tennessee. Yeah, that didn't happen. They're like, oh, well,

780
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,400
Speaker 1: we're going to see big red gains and some of

781
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:46,399
Speaker 1: these things and get none of these things happened, and

782
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 1: everyone does seem to just memory hole. I mean, I

783
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 1: will never forget ahead of the election Wisconsin supposed to

784
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: being Trump a minus seventeen or Biden plus seventeen in Wisconsin,

785
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,800
Speaker 1: or even in twenty twenty. I mean, remember Jamie Harrison,

786
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 1: they were like, Jamie Harrison is within one point in

787
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:06,280
Speaker 1: South Carolina. He lost by seventeen points. He literally lost

788
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 1: by the same margin as the last person who ran

789
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: against Lindsey Graham. He just took eighteen million dollars more

790
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: to do it, and now he's the DNC chair. Yeah,

791
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 1: somebody go in and riddle media. Yeah, that's interestlating, isn't it. Well.

792
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 1: The important point about twenty eighteen is, first of all,

793
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 1: part of why the result, even though it was a

794
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,319
Speaker 1: good year for Democrats. You know, women really came out,

795
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 1: the sort of suburban vote consolidated behind Democrats. They did,

796
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 1: you know, they gained control of the House like it

797
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 1: was a good year for them. But part of why

798
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 1: it fell short of expectations is because you did have

799
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:43,240
Speaker 1: pulling misses. So there's been this kind of conventional wisdom

800
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 1: that has developed of like, oh, well, the problem with

801
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 1: polling only happens when Trump's on the ballot. Happened in

802
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen and happened in twenty twenty. What this chart

803
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 1: shows is that's not really true. You also had significant

804
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 1: pulling misses in twenty eighteen even when Trump wasn't on

805
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 1: the ballot. Now you might say, okay, but he was

806
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: in the White House and the election was really a

807
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 1: referendum on him, and it truly it was. But you know,

808
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 1: Trump is kind of still central to our politics right now.

809
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:11,919
Speaker 1: It's not like the guy is sidelines and not being

810
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 1: talked about. He is very, very central to whatever is

811
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 1: going to happen this midterm. So what I would say is,

812
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 1: if we think back to that chart showing okay, well,

813
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 1: if you have as much of a polling this in

814
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 1: this year as you had in twenty twenty, what is

815
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: the result going to be? Ultimately, if it came down

816
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:31,239
Speaker 1: that way, Democrats would still end up with control of

817
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 1: the Senate. It would still be, on balance, a very

818
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 1: good year for them and much much better than what

819
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 1: they were expecting going in. But it's not going to

820
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 1: be as good as some of the most hopeful estimates

821
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 1: and what the polling reflects right now. And also, by

822
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 1: the way, this is a landscape with the you know,

823
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 1: assumed pollingness where Republicans easily gain control of the House.

824
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 1: That that's not really in question. So, you know, we

825
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 1: have been talking a lot about how how much the

826
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 1: mood has shifted, how much things have shifted towards Democrats Postobs.

827
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 1: That's all totally true, But just keep in mind that

828
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 1: doesn't mean they're going to win control of the House, certainly,

829
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 1: and it doesn't mean they're going to win control of

830
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 1: the Senate. It's going to be very very tight, and

831
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 1: it is probably going to come down to very close

832
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: races in Georgia and very close races in Nevada. So

833
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,479
Speaker 1: those things are all really important to keep in mind. Yeah,

834
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 1: so I let's underscore that it's tight. It's much tighter

835
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 1: than people will have you believe. I think Dobbs made

836
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 1: it so that it has the chance of a couple

837
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 1: of Democratic victories and upsets. But the chance is all

838
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 1: that exists, not like the shoe in that people are

839
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 1: casting it. Let me and let me just play devil's

840
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: advocate here and give the other side of the case,

841
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 1: which is that, okay, but we've had special election assaults

842
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 1: and not only have they gone for Democrats, those poles

843
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:55,280
Speaker 1: going into those special elections have actually understated Democratic support.

844
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 1: So that's what someone who would argue in favor, No,

845
00:42:57,760 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 1: it's actually going to be a blue wave. No, actually

846
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,359
Speaker 1: Rnja is on the ropes. No, actually Tim Ryan could

847
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:04,879
Speaker 1: pick up the seat in Ohio. That's what they would

848
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,280
Speaker 1: point to. Now, the again reason to sort of temper

849
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 1: expectations even with those results, which I do think are

850
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 1: important and maybe the most important piece of data that

851
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 1: we have that does indicate something is different happening here

852
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 1: in terms of Democrats. But what we saw in those

853
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:21,879
Speaker 1: elections is, first of all, in a special election you're

854
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 1: going to have a smaller voter turnout. You still had

855
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:28,760
Speaker 1: Republicans doing very well in rural areas and actually increasing

856
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 1: their vote total even over Donald Trump in certain instances

857
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,319
Speaker 1: in rural areas. But there was a huge flood in

858
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 1: these sort of like liberal especially college towns that's not

859
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: going to be representative of everywhere across the country. So

860
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 1: that's a reason to take some of those results for

861
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: with a little bit of a great divide. I think

862
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 1: That's exactly what I was going to say. I was like, yeah, well,

863
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:51,280
Speaker 1: the special elections are interesting, but they're more suburban, more educated.

864
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 1: That's not the whole electorate. That doesn't work out a

865
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: white working class clay state, smaller turnout, higher national mood.

866
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 1: You know, the midterms are just going to be more

867
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 1: of a national referendum. And so whatever the way the

868
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 1: winds are blowing, that's probably going to be more indicative

869
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 1: breaking news here. It's breaking a little bit after we've

870
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 1: finished filming the show, but it's still important enough that

871
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: we want to go ahead and include it. So that's

872
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:13,879
Speaker 1: why it's a little bit disjointed today. So the US

873
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 1: inflation numbers have just come out for August. Here's what

874
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 1: they are. Inflation is eight point three percent in August

875
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 1: year over year, very high, down slightly from eight point

876
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 1: five percent year over year in July and nine point

877
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 1: one percent in June. However, and this is the most

878
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 1: important one, inflation actually rose by point one percent in

879
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 1: August when many expected it to drop. Shelter, food and

880
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: medical care are the ones which are up, which is

881
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 1: offsetting the ten percent decline in gas prices. Food in

882
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:46,320
Speaker 1: particular is the one which is really concerned in Crystal

883
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 1: Heatherlong the Washington Post, noting, quote, the food index is

884
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 1: increased by eleven point four percent over the last year,

885
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 1: and the largest twelve month increase since the period ending

886
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 1: in May of nineteen seventy nine. So even though gas

887
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: prices are down by almost ten eleven percent over the

888
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 1: last I think one hundred days, if they've dropped every

889
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 1: single day, has not been enough to offset shelter and

890
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 1: food costs. So shelter in particular comeing in extraordinarily hot

891
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 1: as to how high renters are paying. It's really a tragedy,

892
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,399
Speaker 1: and it just shows you that you can't just get

893
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:20,879
Speaker 1: out of this by focus on gas alone. Yeah, that's right.

894
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 1: So gas is down ten point six percent just in

895
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 1: a single month. So the fact that you have these

896
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 1: other factors which have pushed inflation to continue to rise

897
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 1: really shows you how severe the price hikes it were

898
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 1: in those key categories that you're talking about here. So

899
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,320
Speaker 1: if you look year over year, you know some of

900
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 1: the price hikes we're talking about here. Airline fares up

901
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 1: thirty three percent, electricity up fifteen point eight percent, food

902
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:45,760
Speaker 1: at home up thirteen and a half percent, New vehicles

903
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:48,320
Speaker 1: up ten percent, food away from home up eight percent,

904
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,439
Speaker 1: and on and on and on. Shelter year over year

905
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 1: up six point two percent. So obviously these are key

906
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 1: categories that hit the household budget directly, and people really

907
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 1: feel immediately. The reason why this is such a big

908
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 1: deal and why we wanted to do a breaking news

909
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,879
Speaker 1: segment on it, is because the expectation had actually been

910
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,680
Speaker 1: that month to month the inflation rate would tick down

911
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:14,280
Speaker 1: a bit, so maybe zero point three percent was roughly

912
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:17,239
Speaker 1: what the expectation was that it would decline, and said

913
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: you had a point one percent increase. Now the markets

914
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: are reacting very strongly. The last I looked out, Jones

915
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 1: was down like five hundred points, all because now the

916
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 1: expectation is set that for sure the FED is going

917
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:34,880
Speaker 1: to continue with those aggressive rate hikes. We already covered

918
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 1: yesterday how Lale Branard, who is the second policymaker in

919
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: command over at the FED, was sounding notes of we're

920
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 1: going to continue this aggressive policy. This in spite of

921
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 1: the fact that their own research in certain regard in

922
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 1: certain instances shows that there is a risk that they

923
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 1: moved too fast and too aggressively and spark a severe recession.

924
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:58,879
Speaker 1: Of course, we also now know that Jerome Palell, who

925
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: is the president of the FAT, has said that he

926
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,719
Speaker 1: wants there to be some pain, that he thinks that

927
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 1: that is necessary. And of course you have people like

928
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 1: Larry Summers out there saying, oh, we have to have

929
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 1: unemployment at ten percent in order to get inflation under control.

930
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 1: So this is only going to continue to make the

931
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: case to the FED to hike interest rates, even as

932
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 1: you see thus far they've taken some aggressive action and

933
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: it hasn't worked. Why well, one reason could be because,

934
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:29,240
Speaker 1: as we've documented many times, as Elizabeth Warren, to her credit,

935
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:32,720
Speaker 1: has been pointing out, the fed's tools do not get

936
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:37,240
Speaker 1: at the core reasons that we are having this inflationary spiral.

937
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 1: So that's why this is so significant. It really determines,

938
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: you know, the FED, after we had seen some signs

939
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 1: that inflation might be easy, and certainly gas prices have

940
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 1: come down a lot that has made consumers feel a

941
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 1: little bit better, consumer sentiment ticking up. With these new numbers,

942
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 1: this is going to almost set in stone that the

943
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:56,879
Speaker 1: FED will at least do another point seventy five rate

944
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 1: hyphen nextcent at the very least. That's happening. One of

945
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:01,799
Speaker 1: the important point pointed out by Derek Thompson as part

946
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 1: of the reason why inflation is so high in shelter

947
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:07,839
Speaker 1: is that, yeah, the current rent rates might be down,

948
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 1: but everybody else is still locked in at the past

949
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 1: one So housing policy and rent inflation and shelter is

950
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 1: still going to very much be high for six to

951
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 1: eight months. FED policy has no impact on the current

952
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 1: locked in rates at all or many of the other

953
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 1: things that people have had to pay. So look, we'll

954
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,839
Speaker 1: see how it works out, but undoubtedly it means if

955
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 1: FED will hike rates, what's the dow at right now?

956
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:35,439
Speaker 1: The market stop? Oh yeah, I'm assuming that that's gonna

957
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:37,840
Speaker 1: yeah go, So we're down six hundred and twenty five points.

958
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 1: We're filming this segment. Not great, So we'll see how

959
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 1: it all works out. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. We

960
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 1: have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal. Indeed,

961
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 1: we do big news breaking just this morning. It looks

962
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: like there is a tentative deal to at least temporarily

963
00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:01,399
Speaker 1: prevent a real strike or full rail lockout. So we've

964
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 1: got some details there and we'll talk to you about

965
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 1: everything that is going on there as well. Also Cenator

966
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham throwing the Republican Caucus into some disarray, some

967
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 1: further disarray by going forward with a fifteen week abortion

968
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 1: band at the federal level that conflicts with some of

969
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 1: their messaging. So we've got all the political dynamics and

970
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 1: the minor meltdown going on over there for you as well. Also,

971
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:27,320
Speaker 1: we have some really actually very disturbing news regarding inflation,

972
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 1: which is that the Fed may use these latest inflation

973
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 1: numbers to justify a full percentage point hike. But the

974
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 1: reason I'm chuckling is also because we have in the

975
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 1: same day that you know, the bad inflation numbers come

976
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:39,919
Speaker 1: out and the market tanks and whatever binds out there

977
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:41,839
Speaker 1: like things are great. It is one of the most

978
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 1: hilarious split screens you'll have. Yeah, didn't work out well

979
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,440
Speaker 1: for him there. We also have some new midterm numbers,

980
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 1: both in Pennsylvania race also nationally, and we have to

981
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 1: share with you this video that was shared by the

982
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:58,440
Speaker 1: La Unified School District, which is I think the largest

983
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 1: school district in the country, or certainly one of the larges. Anyway,

984
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 1: they used this lady who was like a representative of

985
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 1: the company that makes Oreos and all kinds of other

986
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 1: jug mondolar apps to use like social justice language to

987
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 1: try to claim that oh, all food is equal and

988
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 1: eating a cookie is just as good as eating broccoli.

989
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 1: It's so evil. Honestly, there's no other word for it,

990
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 1: is straight up evil. Got those details for you. Sager

991
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 1: is looking into the case of Columbia University fludging their

992
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 1: statistics so that they can get a better ranking. I

993
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 1: am looking into maybe the craziest story I have ever

994
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:39,360
Speaker 1: dug into, which is this massive welfare fraud scandal that

995
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 1: involves Brett Farv getting millions of dollars from the state

996
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 1: of Mississippi, again from the welfare fund intended for poor people.

997
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 1: Brett Favre is getting millions of dollars to build a

998
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 1: volleyball stadium for his daughter Nuts. We also have Ryan

999
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:56,759
Speaker 1: Grim and Emily Dashinski here counterpoints launches tomorrow. They're going

1000
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:58,400
Speaker 1: to give us a little bit of preview. Very excited

1001
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:00,920
Speaker 1: about that. So, as I said before, it looks like

1002
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 1: we at least have a tentative deal that may for

1003
00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 1: the short term, maybe not permanently. We'll see avert a

1004
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 1: rail strike or a rail lock out. So we've been

1005
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 1: covering this for a while. Let's give you a little

1006
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 1: bit of the backstory and then i'll tell you what

1007
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:16,279
Speaker 1: we know about the deal. Go ahead and put this

1008
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 1: first part up on the screen. So negotiations have been

1009
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:22,280
Speaker 1: ongoing for close to three years at this point. Railroad

1010
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:26,280
Speaker 1: workers have been really screwed during the pandemic and post

1011
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:30,880
Speaker 1: pandemic because these railroad companies are making record breaking profits,

1012
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 1: but they laid off a significant chunk of their workforce

1013
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 1: and they're forcing their current workers to really shoulder the burden.

1014
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:39,800
Speaker 1: What that has meant is that they've had these incredibly

1015
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 1: onerous schedules, and they don't have things like the ability

1016
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 1: to just take a day to go to the doctor

1017
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 1: when they have routine medical appointments. They don't have sick

1018
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 1: time off, and unlike you know a lot of regular jobs,

1019
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:52,879
Speaker 1: they don't get weekend. So when they're saying we don't

1020
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 1: get time off, they mean like literally no days off.

1021
00:51:56,120 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 1: Incredibly incredibly onerous schedule. So the railroad labor relations is

1022
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:05,799
Speaker 1: governed by specific law, so they couldn't just strike. There's

1023
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 1: a whole process they have to go through. One key

1024
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:10,440
Speaker 1: part of that process happened a couple months ago. Present

1025
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:13,680
Speaker 1: by an intervened with this presidential board. They put together

1026
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:15,880
Speaker 1: a set of recommendations that was supposed to be a

1027
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 1: kind of metal ground, but it completely punted on that

1028
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:22,920
Speaker 1: key issue of time off. So it had some decent

1029
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 1: wage provisions in it, but on those key sort of

1030
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 1: quality of life issues that workers were really stressed down over,

1031
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 1: it had nothing to say. So that deal basically sided

1032
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 1: with the bosses. The workers themselves overwhelmingly opposed to it.

1033
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 1: In fact, there's a number of different unions that represent

1034
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:44,800
Speaker 1: these workers throughout the industry. So some of the union

1035
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:47,320
Speaker 1: bosses had said, you know, we're okay with the presidential

1036
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 1: board recommendations. When the members went to vote, they said no, no, no, no,

1037
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:53,760
Speaker 1: we're not. So you had the bulk of workers still

1038
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 1: saying we are not satisfied with this deal, and it

1039
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:59,840
Speaker 1: was really coming down to the wire. The deadline was

1040
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,880
Speaker 1: this Friday, so this was really imminent coming up this

1041
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:06,839
Speaker 1: week where they either had to strike a deal or

1042
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:09,799
Speaker 1: then the rail workers would be able to either go

1043
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 1: on a strike or the carriers could lock them out

1044
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:14,720
Speaker 1: of their jobs. And there were some signs of carriers

1045
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 1: were moving towards that they already started to slow downs

1046
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:20,319
Speaker 1: or things long distance routes, etc. The last piece of

1047
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 1: this before I get into some of the details of

1048
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,799
Speaker 1: what the purported deal is or a tentative deal here,

1049
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:29,399
Speaker 1: is that there is a provision that also allows Congress

1050
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 1: to intervene to prevent a work stoppage by basically cramming

1051
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:37,040
Speaker 1: down a contract on both the workers and on the

1052
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:41,799
Speaker 1: railroad companies. Now, the expectation was that if Congress intervenes,

1053
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:45,360
Speaker 1: they would probably just pick up that recommendations from the

1054
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:48,239
Speaker 1: Presidential Board, which again basically sided with the bosses and

1055
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:52,800
Speaker 1: did nothing regarding the workers' key demands and needs. Republicans

1056
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:55,399
Speaker 1: made a big push yesterday to try to get that

1057
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 1: proposal through and force this bad deal upon workers who

1058
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 1: would then be bound by it legally. President Biden has

1059
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 1: been personally involved, and his Labor Secretary, Marty Walsh, has

1060
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:09,360
Speaker 1: been really leading conversations and talks between union leaders and

1061
00:54:09,400 --> 00:54:12,839
Speaker 1: between the railroad companies to try to strike some sort

1062
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 1: of a deal. And in fact, this morning reporting is

1063
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 1: that there has been a breakthrough. Now, as I said,

1064
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 1: we know very little about what this tentative deal is,

1065
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of reasons to be cautious about

1066
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:31,279
Speaker 1: this and to avoid premature celebration, because ultimately, even though

1067
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:34,799
Speaker 1: this is a deal between the bosses and the union leadership,

1068
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 1: the rank and file workers are going to have a say,

1069
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 1: and they were over like eighty percent overwhelmingly opposed to

1070
00:54:42,760 --> 00:54:46,320
Speaker 1: the previous recommendations. So this would have to be significantly

1071
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 1: better than what President's Biden's board came up with before

1072
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 1: for them to agree to that. But at the very least,

1073
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 1: there's a sixty day what they call cooling off period

1074
00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 1: in which they sort of go through the deal, sell

1075
00:54:57,080 --> 00:54:58,880
Speaker 1: it to their members, and the members get to decide

1076
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 1: whether they're going to ratify this agreement or not. If

1077
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 1: they don't, then we're kind of back to the drawing

1078
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:06,600
Speaker 1: board and facing down a similar deadline. Let me tell

1079
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 1: you what. Jeff Stein, who has some reporting from behind

1080
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:11,919
Speaker 1: the scenes about some of the details here, He says

1081
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:15,320
Speaker 1: people familiar tell me the deal does give real workers

1082
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:18,319
Speaker 1: ability to take days off for medical care without being

1083
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:20,800
Speaker 1: subject to punishment. That was a key demand of the unions.

1084
00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 1: He also says that President Biden was personally animated by

1085
00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:28,720
Speaker 1: the need to get this done. Further reporting says workers

1086
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:33,000
Speaker 1: will receive voluntary assigned days off and single additional paid

1087
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 1: day off they previously did not receive sick days. Let

1088
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 1: that sink in. And the agreement provides members with the

1089
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:40,720
Speaker 1: ability to take unpaid days to go to their routine

1090
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:43,920
Speaker 1: medical appointments for medical care without being subject to attendance policy.

1091
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:45,279
Speaker 1: So that's what we know at this point. Yeah, I

1092
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:46,919
Speaker 1: mean a lot of the piss covers of this pissed

1093
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 1: me off. Oh, it seemed as if they were being unreasonable,

1094
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:51,839
Speaker 1: and I think a lot of people are blackpailled because

1095
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 1: of the way the teachers' unions acted during COVID. Listen,

1096
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:58,400
Speaker 1: these put these things completely separate, as like in crazy

1097
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 1: teachers unions, being COVID crazy is not the same as

1098
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:05,720
Speaker 1: guys who were actually getting fired and disciplined for getting COVID.

1099
00:56:06,120 --> 00:56:08,360
Speaker 1: They had COVID and they were like, I literally either

1100
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 1: got fired from my job or face disciplined, same with

1101
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:15,000
Speaker 1: getting the flu in other cases. I mean, these are

1102
00:56:15,040 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 1: not unreasonable expectations, like if you don't get a single

1103
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 1: day off, like how is your body supposed to recover?

1104
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:23,759
Speaker 1: And then whenever you get pretty sick, especially you know

1105
00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:25,719
Speaker 1: if you have COVID and you need to be out

1106
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:28,280
Speaker 1: for a couple of days. You actually face a penalty

1107
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:30,239
Speaker 1: for reporting that when it's not like you want to

1108
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:32,960
Speaker 1: get your other coworkers sick, Like, regardless of whether you're

1109
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 1: going to die or not, it's just very unpleasant to

1110
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:38,520
Speaker 1: be sick. The other point that I was hearing was,

1111
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: by the way, don't we all remember that crazy rail

1112
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:44,719
Speaker 1: crash that happened a couple of years ago in which

1113
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 1: the rail driver was accelerating too often and apparently was

1114
00:56:48,239 --> 00:56:50,319
Speaker 1: tired on the job and it killed a couple of people.

1115
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:54,000
Speaker 1: Like do you want somebody who was underslept, no day off,

1116
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 1: that's right, and sick behind the wheel of a passenger

1117
00:56:57,400 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 1: or even freight. I mean I just ended up twenty

1118
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 1: eight and a freight in this country moves by rail,

1119
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 1: and a tremendous amount of that is not just cargo

1120
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 1: like retail goods. A lot of it is like iron ore,

1121
00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:11,040
Speaker 1: steel gas. I mean, it's a key thing to keep

1122
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:12,919
Speaker 1: our economy and all that. We're about to get into

1123
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:15,720
Speaker 1: some of that. But yeah, the demands of these guys

1124
00:57:16,120 --> 00:57:18,520
Speaker 1: was really being overlooked. I think in a lot of

1125
00:57:18,600 --> 00:57:20,920
Speaker 1: the media coverage, and I also the Republicans handle themselves

1126
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 1: disgracefully in this way because they were acting if they

1127
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:26,520
Speaker 1: were being unreasonable. Again citing teachers unions, I'm like, it's

1128
00:57:26,560 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 1: not not every obviously, not every union is the same.

1129
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 1: But look at the a My always thing is look

1130
00:57:31,160 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 1: at the specifics. I'm like, I think they were acting crazy.

1131
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 1: If the teachers unions in this pace, I'm like, I

1132
00:57:35,000 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 1: look at this, guys are getting sick behind multi ton

1133
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:42,800
Speaker 1: freight Like that's crazy. Yeah, this is good for no one.

1134
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 1: I mean. The thing that I just kept coming back

1135
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:49,560
Speaker 1: to is because before they struck this tentative deal, the

1136
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 1: freight carriers were engaging in basically economic warfare, throwing their

1137
00:57:54,080 --> 00:57:57,000
Speaker 1: weight around, trying to they really their position was they

1138
00:57:57,200 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 1: wanted Congress to intervene because they knew if Congress would intervene,

1139
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:03,520
Speaker 1: and this is what Republicans were pushing yesterday, that they

1140
00:58:03,560 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 1: would end up with the deal from the Presidential Board.

1141
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:10,840
Speaker 1: Those recommendations, which completely screwed workers again, did not address

1142
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:14,600
Speaker 1: their key concerns at all, and we covered it at

1143
00:58:14,600 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 1: the time. And by the way, I think it's really

1144
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 1: important to take a look around at which outlets were

1145
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:23,480
Speaker 1: actually covering this. We're covering it accurately. We're covering it before,

1146
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 1: you know, the last two seconds. And that weren't just

1147
00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 1: talking to like whatever it's called the Rail Carriers Association

1148
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:34,240
Speaker 1: or whatever that represents the bosses, but actually had the

1149
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:37,240
Speaker 1: voices of the workers. I mean, we had Maximilian Alvarez

1150
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 1: on here this week, he was talking to some of

1151
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 1: the workers. He's obviously with the real news. You have

1152
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:46,560
Speaker 1: the labor outlets, labor notes. In these times, Jackbin have

1153
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:49,520
Speaker 1: been on top of this story. The mainstream press they

1154
00:58:49,600 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 1: were asleep at the wheel. I mean they didn't even

1155
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 1: notice that this was going on until literally two days ago,

1156
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 1: and then the coverage was so slanted. They didn't mention

1157
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:01,040
Speaker 1: in a lot of these pieces. They didn't mention at

1158
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:04,080
Speaker 1: all what the workers demands were. They didn't have the workers'

1159
00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:06,960
Speaker 1: voices in their pieces at all, And so the impression

1160
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,680
Speaker 1: you come away with could very easily be like, oh

1161
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 1: my god, they're just like willing to risk the economy

1162
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 1: so carelessly, when in fact they've been engaged in negotiations

1163
00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:20,160
Speaker 1: for years and their demands are so incredibly basic and reasonable.

1164
00:59:20,560 --> 00:59:22,880
Speaker 1: And then you look at these companies that are making

1165
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 1: record breaking profits. BNSF owned by Warren Buffett. And you're

1166
00:59:28,080 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 1: willing to shut down the entire economy because you don't

1167
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 1: want to give your workers a freaking paid, like unpaid

1168
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 1: sick day. That's not they're even asking for paid, unpaid

1169
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:39,360
Speaker 1: sick day days that they could go and go to

1170
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 1: doctor's appointments. Like you're willing to shut down the economy

1171
00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 1: just to keep your worker's nose to the grindstone and

1172
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 1: make sure they are completely just crushed under this owner's

1173
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 1: work burden again as you are making record breaking profits,

1174
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:56,720
Speaker 1: completely grotesque behavior. There is a tweet thread that laid

1175
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:58,840
Speaker 1: out some of this context that I think is important

1176
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:00,760
Speaker 1: to remember even as we have this tentative deal. Go

1177
01:00:00,760 --> 01:00:02,400
Speaker 1: ahead and put this tweet thread up on the screen.

1178
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 1: This is Jeff Shirky. I'm going to go with as

1179
01:00:06,160 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: the possible rail strike lockout gains more national attention, some

1180
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:11,400
Speaker 1: important context. Number one bargaining start in January twenty twenty.

1181
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:14,040
Speaker 1: Workers have been waiting nearly three years for a new contract.

1182
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 1: Class one railroads have slashed their workforce by twenty nine

1183
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:19,920
Speaker 1: percent in the past six years while making record profits.

1184
01:00:19,920 --> 01:00:23,560
Speaker 1: So again, they cut their workforce and they're forcing the

1185
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 1: workers to shoulder all the burden. Presidential Emergency Board that

1186
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:29,480
Speaker 1: we've been referring to was supposed to propose a fair

1187
01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 1: settlement to avert a strike. It ignored key bargaining issues

1188
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 1: of the unions that reach tentative agreements based on those recommendations. Two,

1189
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,680
Speaker 1: once they put it to the membership actually rejected those agreements.

1190
01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:43,880
Speaker 1: That's what I mentioned before. And the last thing he

1191
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 1: says here is the Railway Labor Act is designed to

1192
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:47,600
Speaker 1: prevent strikes. So the fact that it it has gotten this

1193
01:00:47,680 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 1: far shows you have truly truly pissed off the workers

1194
01:00:51,680 --> 01:00:54,520
Speaker 1: are the next piece. This is now a little bit

1195
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 1: data now that we have a tentative agreement, But go

1196
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 1: and put this political piece up. They talk about in

1197
01:00:58,840 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 1: this piece. How the fact that a couple of the

1198
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:03,520
Speaker 1: unions that looked like they had resolved their disputes then

1199
01:01:03,600 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 1: the members were like, no, we reject this. That put

1200
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:10,200
Speaker 1: more pressure ultimately here on the White House. Let's go

1201
01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:12,280
Speaker 1: ahead to the next piece. Again. This is what I

1202
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 1: was referring to with regards to the Republican senators. They

1203
01:01:16,120 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 1: sought to advance legislation at four pm yesterday to avert

1204
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 1: looming rail strike by forcing an actman of presidential ward recommendations.

1205
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:26,040
Speaker 1: If the unions and carriers can't meet Friday deadline that

1206
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 1: was blocked by Democrats led by Bernie Sanders, Jonah Furman

1207
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 1: has been essential. Guys. Make sure you follow Jonah for

1208
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:38,040
Speaker 1: labor reporting. He says he feels like people are not

1209
01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:40,520
Speaker 1: appreciating Warren Buffin and his friends are shutting down the

1210
01:01:40,520 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 1: supply chain to force Congress to mandate one hundred and

1211
01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:44,840
Speaker 1: twenty five thousand railroad workers to go to work with

1212
01:01:44,920 --> 01:01:47,080
Speaker 1: no weekends or sick leave. They're not just thinking about

1213
01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:49,560
Speaker 1: doing They've already started doing it. This is the lockout

1214
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 1: that I was referring to. Norfolk Southern has already announced

1215
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 1: plan embargoes on intermodal and automotive cargo, even though it's

1216
01:01:54,840 --> 01:01:59,560
Speaker 1: supposed to be a cooling off period and the potential

1217
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:04,160
Speaker 1: economic impacts were extraordinarily real. Jeff Stein saying emerging impacts

1218
01:02:04,240 --> 01:02:08,000
Speaker 1: Amtrak cancels long distance trips, semonia fertilizer, ad products pulled

1219
01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 1: from trains, price of ethanol, other products, soores, grain shipments

1220
01:02:11,160 --> 01:02:14,280
Speaker 1: could stop tomorrow, rail shuts down, our entire agricultural system

1221
01:02:14,720 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 1: shuts down. White House has been in emergency meetings all

1222
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:20,960
Speaker 1: week trying to this is the next piece, trying to

1223
01:02:21,160 --> 01:02:23,880
Speaker 1: figure out any sort of workaround in case there was

1224
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:27,280
Speaker 1: a lockout or a strike, working with other modes of transportation,

1225
01:02:27,320 --> 01:02:29,600
Speaker 1: including shippers, truckers, and air freight to see how they

1226
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:31,960
Speaker 1: can step in and keep goods moving if real workers

1227
01:02:32,000 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 1: go on strike at the end of this week. But

1228
01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:37,640
Speaker 1: you know, this is a real education, I think for

1229
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:41,800
Speaker 1: some folks about exactly what the concerns were, exactly how

1230
01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 1: unreasonable the companies have ultimately been. All Right, everybody, it

1231
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:49,400
Speaker 1: is my pleasure to introduce you, well you already know

1232
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:54,160
Speaker 1: who they are to us have joining us now our

1233
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 1: great friends and new colleagues, Ryan Grimm and Amili Kazinski,

1234
01:02:57,400 --> 01:03:01,720
Speaker 1: the co hosts of Counterpoints Thing tomorrow. Welcome guys. It's

1235
01:03:01,720 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 1: fun to be here. Yeah, this is your set now too.

1236
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:07,360
Speaker 1: So we have a few modifications for you. But yeah,

1237
01:03:07,400 --> 01:03:09,160
Speaker 1: more or less right here. Well that's true, and people

1238
01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:11,880
Speaker 1: will see the modifications tomorrow, so all the more reason

1239
01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:18,000
Speaker 1: to twoation reveal I have to I didn't even have

1240
01:03:18,040 --> 01:03:20,120
Speaker 1: to plug that one. Let's go ahead, put this up

1241
01:03:20,160 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 1: there on the screen. We've been hurriedly making new graphics

1242
01:03:23,040 --> 01:03:25,320
Speaker 1: I love this particular graphic. This is going to be

1243
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 1: the wide screen. This is what we're going to have

1244
01:03:27,440 --> 01:03:30,120
Speaker 1: in general, Emily, Ryan, I sent you guys your new

1245
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:32,520
Speaker 1: monologue templates. I think they look amazing. We've got a

1246
01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 1: nice little bottom graphic. Everything's debuting. Yeah, Ryan's really got

1247
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:47,200
Speaker 1: the smolder going on photograph for real. Tell us how

1248
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 1: you guys feel. We did a video like this whenever

1249
01:03:49,400 --> 01:03:52,080
Speaker 1: we launched here on the KKF set. I'll never forget

1250
01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:53,800
Speaker 1: it actually got a lot of views. So tell us

1251
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:55,720
Speaker 1: how you guys feel to be here, what you're most

1252
01:03:55,760 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 1: excited about, how exactly you want to change things up,

1253
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:00,480
Speaker 1: keep things the same? Like, what are you thinking? Well?

1254
01:04:00,600 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 1: Ryan likes to talk about his feelings, so I think, okay,

1255
01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 1: this is how do you feel? So for for better

1256
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:09,120
Speaker 1: and for worse and some in some ways for better,

1257
01:04:09,160 --> 01:04:12,120
Speaker 1: some ways for worse. Back at rising. The production staff

1258
01:04:12,120 --> 01:04:15,320
Speaker 1: and very grateful for it did a ton of like

1259
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:17,360
Speaker 1: prep work for us. So sometimes we can just roll

1260
01:04:17,400 --> 01:04:19,960
Speaker 1: in and just just do the show, like right, right right,

1261
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:22,080
Speaker 1: but otherwise just kind of all right, what do we

1262
01:04:22,080 --> 01:04:23,640
Speaker 1: got next? What do we gott next? What got next?

1263
01:04:24,720 --> 01:04:27,480
Speaker 1: And what I'm looking forward to is crafting the show

1264
01:04:27,520 --> 01:04:31,240
Speaker 1: ourselves so that we're going to be picking and also,

1265
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:35,040
Speaker 1: you know, there's so much content that Rising puts out

1266
01:04:35,360 --> 01:04:40,200
Speaker 1: that sometimes you're kind of reaching. Yes, that was that

1267
01:04:40,320 --> 01:04:43,200
Speaker 1: was actually one of our big, you know, big reasons

1268
01:04:43,200 --> 01:04:46,000
Speaker 1: we wanted to make a similar move was that same thing,

1269
01:04:46,080 --> 01:04:48,720
Speaker 1: because you just you know, the model over there is

1270
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:51,840
Speaker 1: just as much content as you possibly can. And I

1271
01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:54,320
Speaker 1: mean we helped to create that model, frankly because in

1272
01:04:54,320 --> 01:04:55,840
Speaker 1: the early days we're like, we just got to get

1273
01:04:55,880 --> 01:04:58,040
Speaker 1: this thing going, you got to feed the algorithm. But

1274
01:04:58,120 --> 01:04:59,760
Speaker 1: at a certain point, yeah, you're doing a segment in

1275
01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:02,360
Speaker 1: your lif I don't care about this topic. I don't

1276
01:05:02,400 --> 01:05:04,800
Speaker 1: think it's important for people to know about this topic.

1277
01:05:05,000 --> 01:05:07,360
Speaker 1: Like I'm just you know, it's not a good feeling

1278
01:05:07,400 --> 01:05:09,760
Speaker 1: to put things out in the world that you don't

1279
01:05:09,800 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 1: actually think are important. So that makes a lot of

1280
01:05:12,600 --> 01:05:15,000
Speaker 1: sense to me. Emily, What did you guys think about

1281
01:05:15,000 --> 01:05:17,280
Speaker 1: in terms of the sort of like overall ethos of

1282
01:05:17,320 --> 01:05:19,840
Speaker 1: the show, your approach to it, the structure of it.

1283
01:05:20,000 --> 01:05:21,880
Speaker 1: What was sort of the thought that went into it. Well,

1284
01:05:21,880 --> 01:05:24,240
Speaker 1: And that's another thing I like about this model is

1285
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:25,960
Speaker 1: that it's not just we get to sort of put

1286
01:05:26,000 --> 01:05:29,240
Speaker 1: our fingerprints on the what we're covering, but also how

1287
01:05:29,240 --> 01:05:31,400
Speaker 1: we cover it. So I like that we're going to

1288
01:05:31,440 --> 01:05:33,520
Speaker 1: be able to take a topic. For instance, I think

1289
01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about Ken Starr tomorrow in the

1290
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:38,320
Speaker 1: news he passed away this week, and we don't have

1291
01:05:38,400 --> 01:05:40,480
Speaker 1: to do you know, an eight minute segment. We can

1292
01:05:40,560 --> 01:05:43,760
Speaker 1: actually really say what does this tell us about our politics?

1293
01:05:43,800 --> 01:05:45,240
Speaker 1: What does the arc of this man? And tell us

1294
01:05:45,240 --> 01:05:47,600
Speaker 1: about our politics, and spend a little bit more time

1295
01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:50,680
Speaker 1: going into different things and in ways that we want

1296
01:05:50,720 --> 01:05:53,400
Speaker 1: to go into them, even if they aren't perfect sort

1297
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:57,240
Speaker 1: of news cycle fits. We can spend the time to

1298
01:05:57,240 --> 01:05:59,520
Speaker 1: give more contact. Something I love about this format is,

1299
01:05:59,520 --> 01:06:01,640
Speaker 1: you know a huge portion of the listenership is audio,

1300
01:06:01,760 --> 01:06:03,560
Speaker 1: and they're just going to listen to the entire thing.

1301
01:06:03,600 --> 01:06:05,720
Speaker 1: They don't have, They don't even necessarily care like or

1302
01:06:05,840 --> 01:06:07,760
Speaker 1: know what the headline is or whatever, and so they

1303
01:06:07,800 --> 01:06:09,960
Speaker 1: may just stumble into that Ken Star segem and be like, Wow,

1304
01:06:10,000 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 1: that's really interesting. I've never learned about Kent Star before,

1305
01:06:12,200 --> 01:06:14,600
Speaker 1: which is a fascinating figure in his own right. I'm

1306
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 1: kind of jealous that you guys get to cover that.

1307
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:18,360
Speaker 1: So what are some other things that you got like

1308
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 1: in terms of programming, so it's going to be every Friday. Obviously,

1309
01:06:21,720 --> 01:06:24,560
Speaker 1: I'm assuming you'll just hit if there's some major, major things.

1310
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:26,520
Speaker 1: But what you guys been doing over at Rising has

1311
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:28,320
Speaker 1: been kind of the same thing, like taking a step

1312
01:06:28,360 --> 01:06:32,040
Speaker 1: back looking at bigger stories, like give some people a preview.

1313
01:06:32,040 --> 01:06:33,840
Speaker 1: You don't have to give everything your whole run down away,

1314
01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:36,000
Speaker 1: but what are you guys thinking? And I think the

1315
01:06:36,040 --> 01:06:38,360
Speaker 1: format also allows you to go a little bit longer

1316
01:06:38,440 --> 01:06:41,400
Speaker 1: on the topics that really really need it, or if

1317
01:06:41,440 --> 01:06:44,520
Speaker 1: you're on a roll, right, sometimes people would feel like

1318
01:06:44,600 --> 01:06:47,480
Speaker 1: if I'm winning and they're trying to shut down, Yeah

1319
01:06:47,520 --> 01:06:50,920
Speaker 1: you are are. Ukraine Invasion Day. That was a thirty

1320
01:06:50,920 --> 01:06:52,840
Speaker 1: seven minute segment and that's still one of the highest

1321
01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:55,560
Speaker 1: rated segments that the show has ever done. So just

1322
01:06:55,600 --> 01:06:58,040
Speaker 1: to show you like, if if it's big news, people

1323
01:06:58,080 --> 01:07:00,680
Speaker 1: will watch the hell out of it. Times people would

1324
01:07:00,680 --> 01:07:02,560
Speaker 1: say like, what do you mean you have to run

1325
01:07:02,760 --> 01:07:04,840
Speaker 1: like it's a it's it's not cable. What are you

1326
01:07:04,840 --> 01:07:07,480
Speaker 1: talking about? Actually you do? You have to stand the

1327
01:07:07,520 --> 01:07:11,360
Speaker 1: scheduling right exactly? Yes, and all that we exactly so

1328
01:07:11,400 --> 01:07:13,160
Speaker 1: we have it set up and just the yeah, the

1329
01:07:13,200 --> 01:07:15,040
Speaker 1: turn and burn of we know, we've got ten more

1330
01:07:15,040 --> 01:07:17,640
Speaker 1: segments we've got to today. We got to move on

1331
01:07:17,680 --> 01:07:19,560
Speaker 1: from this one, because otherwise we're going to literally be

1332
01:07:19,640 --> 01:07:21,280
Speaker 1: here all day and the show will never get out.

1333
01:07:21,400 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 1: So I think that flexibility is really important. I'm really

1334
01:07:24,160 --> 01:07:27,200
Speaker 1: excited to see you guys sort of put your spin

1335
01:07:27,400 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 1: on what the show looks like, what it feels like,

1336
01:07:30,360 --> 01:07:33,360
Speaker 1: what the vibe is, and you know, the list of

1337
01:07:33,400 --> 01:07:36,560
Speaker 1: topics that you're you floated look looking at the potential

1338
01:07:36,560 --> 01:07:38,680
Speaker 1: stock band and things like that are actually things that

1339
01:07:38,720 --> 01:07:40,800
Speaker 1: we didn't get around to covering this week too. I know.

1340
01:07:41,360 --> 01:07:45,760
Speaker 1: Sometimes we now have the opposite problem of like there's

1341
01:07:45,840 --> 01:07:48,680
Speaker 1: more news in the week, then we're able to get

1342
01:07:48,720 --> 01:07:50,880
Speaker 1: into the three days that we do the show. So

1343
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:53,200
Speaker 1: it'll be great to have you guys in there on Friday.

1344
01:07:53,440 --> 01:07:55,640
Speaker 1: You know, there's a lot of news that's breaking Thursdays

1345
01:07:55,680 --> 01:07:57,560
Speaker 1: and Fridays now in the news cycle, so it'll be

1346
01:07:57,720 --> 01:07:59,840
Speaker 1: really easy. Yeah, and I was and I was joking

1347
01:08:00,000 --> 01:08:02,640
Speaker 1: about like winning an argument, But what I like about

1348
01:08:02,640 --> 01:08:05,000
Speaker 1: the show is that it's actually not an argument show.

1349
01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:06,680
Speaker 1: Like one of the reasons we called it kind of

1350
01:08:06,680 --> 01:08:10,400
Speaker 1: counterpoints is like here's a point, yes, here's a counterpoint,

1351
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:12,960
Speaker 1: all right, and now we can now we can move

1352
01:08:12,960 --> 01:08:14,480
Speaker 1: on to the the next thing. We're not trying to

1353
01:08:14,520 --> 01:08:16,639
Speaker 1: actually win. And a lot of the times when I'm

1354
01:08:16,680 --> 01:08:20,080
Speaker 1: asking Emily a question, sometimes it's because I want to

1355
01:08:20,120 --> 01:08:22,080
Speaker 1: further conversation. I know she has a good point to make,

1356
01:08:22,080 --> 01:08:24,559
Speaker 1: and I'm trying to like tee that up. About half

1357
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:28,000
Speaker 1: the time, I genuinely don't know the answer, and I'm

1358
01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:31,520
Speaker 1: like curious, like it's a real question, like an authentic,

1359
01:08:31,640 --> 01:08:36,560
Speaker 1: actual question, not like a bro like I'm going to

1360
01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:39,400
Speaker 1: own you, not trying to move you into a corner.

1361
01:08:39,479 --> 01:08:41,760
Speaker 1: And then oh, you've said this thing. Now now by

1362
01:08:41,800 --> 01:08:46,840
Speaker 1: your logic, it's like, actually, we have two people here

1363
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:49,920
Speaker 1: who are both thoughtful and have different opinions, and like,

1364
01:08:50,040 --> 01:08:52,519
Speaker 1: let's work through that in real time. I mean, that's

1365
01:08:52,600 --> 01:08:55,559
Speaker 1: I think why we felt really comfortable bringing you guys

1366
01:08:55,600 --> 01:08:58,200
Speaker 1: onto the channel, which is something that we are kind

1367
01:08:58,240 --> 01:09:02,160
Speaker 1: of like a little nervous about. Well you just no,

1368
01:09:02,200 --> 01:09:04,400
Speaker 1: not about you guys in general, but the idea of it.

1369
01:09:05,280 --> 01:09:07,719
Speaker 1: I mean, number one, you guys have been an important

1370
01:09:07,720 --> 01:09:10,519
Speaker 1: part of helping create Rising and make it what it was,

1371
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:12,280
Speaker 1: helping to create breaking points to making what I like,

1372
01:09:12,320 --> 01:09:14,800
Speaker 1: you guys were original friends of the show on you know,

1373
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:18,000
Speaker 1: the election panels and all that stuff over at Rising,

1374
01:09:18,240 --> 01:09:20,360
Speaker 1: so we obviously have a great level of comfort with you,

1375
01:09:20,439 --> 01:09:23,080
Speaker 1: but we also felt like you really get that kind

1376
01:09:23,120 --> 01:09:26,760
Speaker 1: of core ethos of like, you know, I think at

1377
01:09:26,800 --> 01:09:29,960
Speaker 1: our best, my ideal goal for the show is to

1378
01:09:30,000 --> 01:09:33,639
Speaker 1: be able to show that we can disagree and it's

1379
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:36,360
Speaker 1: okay and it doesn't have to like break apart the union.

1380
01:09:36,479 --> 01:09:40,880
Speaker 1: And I do feel like, yeah, if I can't have

1381
01:09:41,320 --> 01:09:44,559
Speaker 1: like a actually like a real hard disagreement with Soger

1382
01:09:44,640 --> 01:09:47,280
Speaker 1: and be able to like work through that, then what

1383
01:09:47,400 --> 01:09:50,080
Speaker 1: hope is there for the country at large? So that's

1384
01:09:50,160 --> 01:09:53,200
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, always been my best hope for

1385
01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:55,040
Speaker 1: this show, and what I think you guys have really

1386
01:09:55,080 --> 01:09:58,479
Speaker 1: demonstrated a great ability to do in good faith as

1387
01:09:58,520 --> 01:10:01,320
Speaker 1: well over at Rising, And so we're excited to have

1388
01:10:01,360 --> 01:10:03,559
Speaker 1: you here. We're excited and people are smart, Like if

1389
01:10:03,560 --> 01:10:06,360
Speaker 1: you like, if you show people the same contrast that

1390
01:10:06,400 --> 01:10:08,519
Speaker 1: you want to get to, as Ryan's talking about, like

1391
01:10:08,520 --> 01:10:10,720
Speaker 1: I actually want to know what's different here and what's

1392
01:10:10,760 --> 01:10:13,160
Speaker 1: the same. Yeah, Like that's what I feel like all

1393
01:10:13,160 --> 01:10:15,040
Speaker 1: of us need, Like me as a viewer, It's the

1394
01:10:15,040 --> 01:10:17,679
Speaker 1: thing that I love about breaking points, Like viewers don't

1395
01:10:17,720 --> 01:10:20,559
Speaker 1: need to be handheld, like CNN tries to handhold people

1396
01:10:20,640 --> 01:10:23,719
Speaker 1: from point A to point B, so you're not any

1397
01:10:23,800 --> 01:10:27,120
Speaker 1: other different view exactly. They're gatekeepers, but like we just

1398
01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:29,760
Speaker 1: have a conversation and try to get to what the

1399
01:10:29,800 --> 01:10:32,599
Speaker 1: actual contrast is and then we can all think about

1400
01:10:32,600 --> 01:10:35,080
Speaker 1: what the road forward looks like. It really comes through people.

1401
01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:36,880
Speaker 1: It's the thing that people love the most about the show.

1402
01:10:37,000 --> 01:10:38,799
Speaker 1: And when every time I meet them, you know, sometimes

1403
01:10:38,800 --> 01:10:40,639
Speaker 1: some of the things people say are like really heavy,

1404
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:43,559
Speaker 1: where they're like, really improve my relationship with my dad. Crystal,

1405
01:10:43,760 --> 01:10:47,720
Speaker 1: I was like, geez, don't put that on. But we

1406
01:10:47,800 --> 01:10:49,439
Speaker 1: found a way to be able to talk about these

1407
01:10:49,479 --> 01:10:51,120
Speaker 1: things where we don't just like hate. He's like, I'm

1408
01:10:51,120 --> 01:10:53,200
Speaker 1: more like Crystal is, but you made me understand like

1409
01:10:53,240 --> 01:10:55,599
Speaker 1: what my dad means. Whenever he's I was like, wow,

1410
01:10:56,960 --> 01:11:00,000
Speaker 1: that's heavy. People are People are starting to get it.

1411
01:11:00,040 --> 01:11:04,280
Speaker 1: And actually the corporation that bought Hill Hill Hill TV,

1412
01:11:04,880 --> 01:11:07,800
Speaker 1: called next Star, they actually have the right diagnosis. They

1413
01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:10,720
Speaker 1: think that cable news is completely broken and people don't

1414
01:11:10,760 --> 01:11:14,120
Speaker 1: trust it anymore. Their solution is wrong, like the solutions

1415
01:11:14,760 --> 01:11:17,000
Speaker 1: they're coming forward. It's like we're we're going to be

1416
01:11:17,000 --> 01:11:19,400
Speaker 1: the ones who are down the middle and fair. That

1417
01:11:19,439 --> 01:11:22,360
Speaker 1: doesn't that doesn't work, that doesn't scan to either side.

1418
01:11:22,920 --> 01:11:25,000
Speaker 1: So they're diagnosis is right. But I think the answer

1419
01:11:25,080 --> 01:11:29,160
Speaker 1: is give people options, like give people different viewpoints and

1420
01:11:29,200 --> 01:11:31,760
Speaker 1: then let them decide for themselves. I talk to a

1421
01:11:31,760 --> 01:11:35,320
Speaker 1: ton of people who watch CNN, Fox and MSNBC because

1422
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:37,120
Speaker 1: they want to get because they don't trust any of them,

1423
01:11:37,120 --> 01:11:39,440
Speaker 1: but they think if they get enough of the different viewpoints,

1424
01:11:39,760 --> 01:11:41,680
Speaker 1: then they can decide for themselves. And here we're just

1425
01:11:41,760 --> 01:11:45,320
Speaker 1: kind of doing that all one place. It's good for people. Yeah,

1426
01:11:45,360 --> 01:11:49,439
Speaker 1: it's good for people not too mostly be in ideological bubbles.

1427
01:11:49,479 --> 01:11:52,719
Speaker 1: Like it's good. It's like sometimes I wish Saga would

1428
01:11:52,720 --> 01:11:57,600
Speaker 1: just agree with me on everything, but but there I

1429
01:11:57,640 --> 01:12:01,280
Speaker 1: know ultimately there is no fun in that. And I

1430
01:12:01,280 --> 01:12:03,040
Speaker 1: mean I get a lot out of our exchange. I

1431
01:12:03,040 --> 01:12:05,120
Speaker 1: get out a lot. A lot on preparing for our

1432
01:12:05,120 --> 01:12:07,120
Speaker 1: exchange is because I know I'm not going to just

1433
01:12:07,120 --> 01:12:10,160
Speaker 1: have somebody there who's going to amen me on everything

1434
01:12:10,280 --> 01:12:12,040
Speaker 1: and is actually going to challenge me. So I have

1435
01:12:12,080 --> 01:12:14,519
Speaker 1: to bring like the best argument that I possibly can,

1436
01:12:14,960 --> 01:12:17,439
Speaker 1: and it's caused me to like rethink some of the

1437
01:12:17,439 --> 01:12:20,519
Speaker 1: ways that I approach my you know, my views, my

1438
01:12:20,680 --> 01:12:22,760
Speaker 1: values in the way that I want to you know,

1439
01:12:23,040 --> 01:12:25,680
Speaker 1: live in this world and approach politics. So I think

1440
01:12:25,720 --> 01:12:28,200
Speaker 1: it's a beneficial thing. Obviously, we believe in it. We

1441
01:12:28,400 --> 01:12:30,360
Speaker 1: have seen you guys, you know, living a lot of

1442
01:12:30,360 --> 01:12:32,840
Speaker 1: the same values and are just excited to see what

1443
01:12:32,920 --> 01:12:35,960
Speaker 1: you are putting together. Are honored that you have decided

1444
01:12:35,960 --> 01:12:38,120
Speaker 1: to get Thank you. I was always choosing us. Yeah, really,

1445
01:12:40,000 --> 01:12:41,800
Speaker 1: I think we mean it when it's we say that

1446
01:12:41,840 --> 01:12:43,600
Speaker 1: it's an honor for us because what you guys have

1447
01:12:43,600 --> 01:12:46,120
Speaker 1: built here, I think is so important. I've covered it

1448
01:12:46,160 --> 01:12:49,040
Speaker 1: at the Federals how important this is. So it's truly

1449
01:12:49,160 --> 01:12:51,799
Speaker 1: an honor and we're very excited. It's not us awesome

1450
01:12:51,880 --> 01:12:54,040
Speaker 1: truly is all about them. As we have said, we've

1451
01:12:54,040 --> 01:12:59,400
Speaker 1: got ten keep saying, ninety ten discount for the annual

1452
01:12:59,479 --> 01:13:03,280
Speaker 1: you get sent us off. Let's throw the graphic up

1453
01:13:03,280 --> 01:13:06,240
Speaker 1: there one more time. Counterpoints for the annual membership. It

1454
01:13:06,280 --> 01:13:10,080
Speaker 1: helps fund this other expansion status kup the reporting to

1455
01:13:10,080 --> 01:13:12,320
Speaker 1: be able to send reporters to wherever anything is happening.

1456
01:13:12,360 --> 01:13:13,840
Speaker 1: By the way, you guys will benefit from that you'll

1457
01:13:13,840 --> 01:13:16,280
Speaker 1: have live. But if you ever want to dispatch Jordan

1458
01:13:16,360 --> 01:13:19,160
Speaker 1: or anywhere or one of his cameras help and can

1459
01:13:19,320 --> 01:13:21,680
Speaker 1: we can send a reporter out onto the ground and

1460
01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:24,320
Speaker 1: have exclusive footage like we did at Jackson. This stuff

1461
01:13:24,320 --> 01:13:26,000
Speaker 1: costs a lot of money, guys. You know the studio,

1462
01:13:26,240 --> 01:13:30,200
Speaker 1: the technical the graphics, the reporting, all the other contributors.

1463
01:13:30,240 --> 01:13:33,840
Speaker 1: Max had that awesome railway segment. These things are things

1464
01:13:33,840 --> 01:13:36,599
Speaker 1: that you alone are funding. Can ever rely on the

1465
01:13:36,880 --> 01:13:39,479
Speaker 1: YouTube and Spotify gods to just show up for us

1466
01:13:39,640 --> 01:13:41,599
Speaker 1: one day. So thank you all so much. We've got

1467
01:13:41,600 --> 01:13:44,479
Speaker 1: that link in the description and they will see you

1468
01:13:44,560 --> 01:13:48,280
Speaker 1: all yes tomorrow and it will be distributed so their

1469
01:13:48,320 --> 01:13:50,840
Speaker 1: show will come out just like ours does. There's no

1470
01:13:50,920 --> 01:13:53,559
Speaker 1: extra price for whatever. You're a premium member, you're going

1471
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:56,400
Speaker 1: to get it just like you get breaking points, so

1472
01:13:56,800 --> 01:13:58,360
Speaker 1: you know it'll be in your inbox. I think that

1473
01:13:58,479 --> 01:14:01,360
Speaker 1: show right where noon is this point, So for premiums

1474
01:14:01,400 --> 01:14:03,360
Speaker 1: it will come out at noon. For everybody else one

1475
01:14:03,400 --> 01:14:06,439
Speaker 1: pm Eastern standards to California, people don't worry, you'll still

1476
01:14:06,439 --> 01:14:08,400
Speaker 1: watch it in the morning. I want to hear about it, indeed,

1477
01:14:08,640 --> 01:14:11,559
Speaker 1: So good luck to our guys. We're very excited, all right,

1478
01:14:11,760 --> 01:14:13,680
Speaker 1: and then Krystal and are going to meet Atlanta, so

1479
01:14:13,720 --> 01:14:15,679
Speaker 1: that'll be fun. And if we feel like it, maybe

1480
01:14:15,680 --> 01:14:17,519
Speaker 1: we'll put some clips out of it. Stay tuned to

1481
01:14:17,520 --> 01:14:18,840
Speaker 1: see how it goes. We'll see you guys later