WEBVTT - Online Dating and the Texas Social Media Law

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<v Speaker 1>From the heart of where innovation, money and power collive

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<v Speaker 1>in Silicon Vallet and beyond. This is Bloomberg Technology with

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<v Speaker 1>Emily Jay. I'm Emily Track in San Francisco, and this

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Technology. Coming up the next hour. A tumultuous

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<v Speaker 1>may for markets ended almost exactly where it started. What

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<v Speaker 1>does it mean to tech valuations in summer months to come?

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<v Speaker 1>We will discuss and could online dating be the one

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<v Speaker 1>market that will be spared. We'll talk to an analyst

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<v Speaker 1>who says companies like Bumble, Tinder, and Hinge our recession proof.

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<v Speaker 1>Plus from where the next COVID wave will hit, to

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<v Speaker 1>just how high inflation will go to the winners of

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<v Speaker 1>the Grammys. A new predictions market lets you bet on

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<v Speaker 1>just about anything. We're going to bet a controversial exchange

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<v Speaker 1>that's actually legal for now. And finally, the Supreme Court

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<v Speaker 1>just blocked a Texas law that could transform Twitter and Meta.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll have a report live from Washington. All of that

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<v Speaker 1>in a moment, But first, let's get a look at

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<v Speaker 1>the markets and stocks in particular, Tech ending may almost

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<v Speaker 1>exactly where they started this month. I want to stick

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<v Speaker 1>with the markets now and specifically talk tech with Michael

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<v Speaker 1>Wolfe of Activate. Michael, always good to have you back

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<v Speaker 1>here with us. So look, what do you think all

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<v Speaker 1>the fuss was about. We saw the ups, we saw

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<v Speaker 1>the downs, and then at the end of the month

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<v Speaker 1>we're back right where we started. Well, I mean, part

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<v Speaker 1>of this it reflects that investors are concerned that the

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<v Speaker 1>growth rates are slowing down. It's not as if these

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<v Speaker 1>businesses aren't growing quickly. And yes they're concerned about rates,

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<v Speaker 1>but to a large extent, it's it's all this is.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a correction. It's not a bubble bursting. And

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<v Speaker 1>in fact, when you people keep making this comparison to

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<v Speaker 1>thousand and they're saying, oh, it's it's another wave of this.

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<v Speaker 1>But in reality, though that we have companies that have

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<v Speaker 1>real profits, that have real businesses and um and in

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<v Speaker 1>the tech bubble in the in the early two thousands,

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<v Speaker 1>what we had was business plans and not a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of revenue and certainly not earnings. Here's a question is

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<v Speaker 1>it overvalued or not? And if so, what is overvalued?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think we we saw right and left

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<v Speaker 1>the market caps of these companies being driven up, not

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<v Speaker 1>almost almost illogically because they were looking at at tremendous

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<v Speaker 1>growth rates. So if you look at company like Netflix,

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<v Speaker 1>which is down over sixty like Netflix has over two

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<v Speaker 1>fifty million paying subscribers. So it's yes, we've seen a

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing a correction in the value, but this is

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<v Speaker 1>a substantial business and we're going to expect it to

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<v Speaker 1>see it continue to grow. Michael, you've been around a

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<v Speaker 1>long time. You've got folks they're comparing this to the

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<v Speaker 1>dot com bust. Do you think then that is totally overblown.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's totally overblown. It. The reality is that

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<v Speaker 1>these are substantial companies. They've had substantial growth, they are

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<v Speaker 1>leading in a lot of case, they're having modes around

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<v Speaker 1>their business which makes it very difficult to compete against them.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a totally different situation. Now. If you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the two thousand and eight two thousand nine, you see

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<v Speaker 1>a number of companies that were started in those days,

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<v Speaker 1>and it gives you a sense there's likely to be

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<v Speaker 1>So if you looked at Benmo and Square and and others,

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<v Speaker 1>and Airbnb and Uber, they were started in that period

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<v Speaker 1>during the last recession. So we should see a lot

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<v Speaker 1>more innovation and a lot more activity. But but these

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<v Speaker 1>these companies are substantial and they're going to stay substantial.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you think about the M and A market?

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously we've seen this massive Broadcom vm Ware deal. I

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<v Speaker 1>wonder if that is in a league of its own

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<v Speaker 1>on the heels of you know, maybe Twitter, which is

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<v Speaker 1>also a unique situation. And then of course there was

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<v Speaker 1>Microsoft in activision. But are we going to see more

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<v Speaker 1>big time M and A through this tumultuous period. To

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<v Speaker 1>a large extent, it's going to be different. There's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be different buyers. So one of the places where we

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<v Speaker 1>should see a lot of M and A is in

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<v Speaker 1>enterprise software. So if you look at the take private

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<v Speaker 1>of McAfee, if you look at Salesforce and Slack, those

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<v Speaker 1>are the kinds of acquisitions that we should continue to see. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the things that's also different is we're likely

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<v Speaker 1>to see um more private equity deals. So if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at we have Nielsen's take private at sixteen billion,

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<v Speaker 1>we have UM, we have other businesses like Toma, Bravo's

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<v Speaker 1>purchase of Proofpoint. We're going to see a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>because the market is we're seeing some capitulation in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of pricing, and this is a moment when private equity

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<v Speaker 1>firms can rush in and they can find businesses that

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<v Speaker 1>are that we're way over valued versus a year ago.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Michael Wolf of Activate, always good to have

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<v Speaker 1>you on the show. Michael, thank you for giving us

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<v Speaker 1>uh the silver lining on some of this stuff. Meantime,

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan based iPhone maker Han Hi expects supply chain disruptions

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<v Speaker 1>to gradually clear up. At Shanghai slowly opens to trade

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<v Speaker 1>after months of COVID lockdowns, Han high chair Young Lieu

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<v Speaker 1>told shareholders the company is more upbeat now about it

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<v Speaker 1>sales outlook than before. On High, of course, is Apple's

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<v Speaker 1>largest assembly partner, from the outcome of the Grammys to

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<v Speaker 1>the next COVID wave to future SEC commissioners. You can

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<v Speaker 1>now bet on all of these things with call sheet,

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<v Speaker 1>a controversial new type of financial exchange where people can

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<v Speaker 1>play wagers tied to outcomes of real world events. Joining

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<v Speaker 1>me now, Lauana Lopez Laura, Founder and CEO of College Lauana,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for joining us. So first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>some some folks have been trying to push forward these

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of financial markets for years, but it never happened.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, how did you make this work. Yeah, so

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<v Speaker 1>we get this question actually, uh fairly often, and the

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<v Speaker 1>answer isn't what most people expect. It's really about we

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<v Speaker 1>just had I guess, more patience and more resilience and

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<v Speaker 1>we just push through longer. It's a it's a regulatory process.

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<v Speaker 1>It takes a long time innovation, especially in the derivative space.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's there's a lot of new things, new risks

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<v Speaker 1>that we need to look to and the regulators are

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<v Speaker 1>looking for um and we were diligent through work with

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<v Speaker 1>all of them. For the CFTC, you can think about surveillance,

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<v Speaker 1>customer protection, the contracts themselves, rules, a lot of different

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<v Speaker 1>things that we had to work through and iterate through

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<v Speaker 1>two years. And we really worked hard for two years

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<v Speaker 1>and didn't give up to get to get it for

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<v Speaker 1>the finish line, uh and launch the exchange last year. So,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, the FED has another decision coming up, and

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<v Speaker 1>via cal she you can make a bet on what

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<v Speaker 1>you think the Fed will do. What are your markets

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<v Speaker 1>showing about the fed next move? Yeah, I guess to

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<v Speaker 1>back track and just explain a little bit how the

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<v Speaker 1>markets work, so you can buy yes or no positions

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<v Speaker 1>on whether the market will have something will happen or not,

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<v Speaker 1>and the price goes from zero to one uh selling

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<v Speaker 1>to one if the if the market is correct, if

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<v Speaker 1>your position is correct, um and because the price is

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<v Speaker 1>from zero to one, the price so so like for example,

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<v Speaker 1>sixty cents means there's a six and something will happen,

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<v Speaker 1>So you can really directly translate the price to the

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<v Speaker 1>probability of wou say that price is truth. With the

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<v Speaker 1>FED markets, we have um different markets for every f

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<v Speaker 1>o MC meeting. So for fifty or seventy five basis

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<v Speaker 1>points hikes UM, our markets are saying that for the

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<v Speaker 1>June fo m C meeting we will be seeing fifty

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<v Speaker 1>basis point hyke with chance. The markets are also saying

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<v Speaker 1>that the July meeting will see another fifty basis point

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<v Speaker 1>hype with ninety percentians UM. And across the whole year,

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<v Speaker 1>the markets are expecting ten UM FED FED hikes versus

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<v Speaker 1>I think a couple of months ago it was predicting

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<v Speaker 1>around seven UM, so so definitely a lot of hikes coming.

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<v Speaker 1>So President Biden just you know, unveiled this whole plan

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<v Speaker 1>to keep inflation down. What are your markets say inflation

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<v Speaker 1>is actually gonna do? Right? We also have markets on

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<v Speaker 1>inflation from zero percent to one point two and every

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<v Speaker 1>month of the year, the markets are saying that the

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<v Speaker 1>next inflation print coming out next week will be around

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<v Speaker 1>zero point sixty five percent month over month or over

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<v Speaker 1>the whole year eight point two percent inflation um our.

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<v Speaker 1>Actual markets have have predicted seven out of the eight

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<v Speaker 1>pass inflation prints correctly. Uh so, our our traders have

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<v Speaker 1>not been surprised at all to see the high high

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<v Speaker 1>inflation numbers, um But it's import to say that for

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of the year um SO annualize. For the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the year, the markets are expecting of around

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<v Speaker 1>four percent annualized in December around three which really is

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<v Speaker 1>around um normal levels, so really expecting inflation to go

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<v Speaker 1>back to normal. Now regulators initially said no to an

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<v Speaker 1>exchange like this, but but recently changed course. Isn't this gambling?

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<v Speaker 1>Why should this be legal? That is a great question,

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<v Speaker 1>um our. We're in exchange the same way that the

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<v Speaker 1>CIME or the New York Stock Exchange are exchanges, and

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<v Speaker 1>you trade events on our exchange the same way you

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<v Speaker 1>trade stocks or futures on CIMME or the New York

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<v Speaker 1>Stock Exchange. We are basically just a trade matching engine

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<v Speaker 1>that matches different people trying to take different positions. So

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<v Speaker 1>if you take our FED markets for example, right, um,

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<v Speaker 1>our markets are a way to trade hedge or get

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<v Speaker 1>exposure to feed events the same way interest rate swaps

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<v Speaker 1>are defined are designed to do, but hours are made

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<v Speaker 1>in an exchange in an accessible and simple way. Um

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<v Speaker 1>we really think that that bringing it to two. People

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<v Speaker 1>have actual risk associated to this, Like if you have

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<v Speaker 1>a student loan tied to the ten year treasury, or

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<v Speaker 1>if you're trying to refinance your home, you have real

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<v Speaker 1>risk associated to the FED raising rates and you should

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<v Speaker 1>have access to the same types of benefits that Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street does. This isn't gambling. This is finance at it's best.

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<v Speaker 1>It's about hedging risk and getting exposure to to what

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<v Speaker 1>you you have your face risk in your everyday life. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>I'd love to learn a little more about your personal story.

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<v Speaker 1>I know you're from Brazil and you studied bullshoy ballet,

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<v Speaker 1>which I assume was hours a day. How do you

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<v Speaker 1>go from you know, potentially becoming a professional ballerina to

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<v Speaker 1>going to M I T and launching a market startup? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that is a great question. I definitely have an unconventional

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<v Speaker 1>uh path. Um. Yeah. So I used to be a

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<v Speaker 1>professional ballerina. I used to train, as you said, eight

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<v Speaker 1>hours a day uh in at the Bolshoi Ballet and

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<v Speaker 1>I worked professionally in Austria for a bid and I

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<v Speaker 1>think that really changed and mark how I am as

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<v Speaker 1>a person. I think a lot of discipline and a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of you know, sacrifice and looking two more longer

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<v Speaker 1>term UM payouts versus very short term payouts. I think

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<v Speaker 1>definitely helped with with starting chol ship. But I was

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<v Speaker 1>always fascinated by math and science. Uh So I went

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<v Speaker 1>to m I teach studies CS and math and at

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<v Speaker 1>the very beginning of fascinated by the finest world history

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<v Speaker 1>of markets market structure um. And from then it was

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<v Speaker 1>worked out a couple of hedge funds, but I really

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to make a mark of my own. So UM

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<v Speaker 1>encounter the cow sheet the couchip problem, which for us

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<v Speaker 1>video is people should have the same access people everyday

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<v Speaker 1>business and should have the same access that institutions have

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<v Speaker 1>to hedge risk they have associated to events. Most trading

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<v Speaker 1>is based on events you think rates are going to have,

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<v Speaker 1>like go up. You do this in the stock market.

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<v Speaker 1>We want to bring this to everyday people and let

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<v Speaker 1>them do the same and have the same benefits. UM So, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>definitely a convoluted story, but but I think it all

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<v Speaker 1>adds up in the end. Last quick question, what's your

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<v Speaker 1>position on crypto? Then? You know, isn't that you know

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<v Speaker 1>a market that's already pretty well established, where you've got

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<v Speaker 1>high risk, high reward. You know, why not put your

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<v Speaker 1>money in crypto instead? That is a great question. I

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<v Speaker 1>think crypto has wiped out a lot of people in

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<v Speaker 1>the past couple of months. You can take the lunar example.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that it needs more regulation. I think a

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<v Speaker 1>very small portion of crypto markets are regulated nowadays, and

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<v Speaker 1>you see a lot of scams just going around of

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<v Speaker 1>like easy twenty yield or something like that, and in

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<v Speaker 1>the end they just use your money and it's really

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<v Speaker 1>people savings. There's like actual victims to this. So I

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<v Speaker 1>really think it needs more regulation and it needs to

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<v Speaker 1>to be brought up, brought into the regulatory oversight in

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<v Speaker 1>the US. UM. I guess that with US, As you said,

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<v Speaker 1>it's like you can also make money and lose money,

0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:46.480
<v Speaker 1>but the difference that we regulated that this won't be

0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:49.320
<v Speaker 1>a systemic risk that older is to explained to people,

0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.920
<v Speaker 1>and and regulation brings this fantastic thing which is customer protection.

0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:55.120
<v Speaker 1>All right, I want to love as Laura founder and

0:12:55.200 --> 0:13:07.440
<v Speaker 1>Cello of Calci will keep watching. Thank you well. The U. S.

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.600
<v Speaker 1>Supreme Court has blocked a Texas law that critics say

0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:16.200
<v Speaker 1>would fundamentally transform Twitter and Meta's business by requiring them

0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:20.080
<v Speaker 1>to allow hate speech and extremism. Greg Storm, who covers

0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:22.320
<v Speaker 1>the Supreme Court for Bloomberg, joins us. Now, so, Greg,

0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.120
<v Speaker 1>first of all, give us the context on this Texas law,

0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:27.600
<v Speaker 1>which has been moving through the courts, went into effect

0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:32.400
<v Speaker 1>in Texas earlier this month. It did, and the social

0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:35.640
<v Speaker 1>media industry had been very worried about it. The appeals

0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:38.280
<v Speaker 1>court didn't give any explanation for letting the law take

0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.960
<v Speaker 1>effect in The social media company said the impact and

0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:46.280
<v Speaker 1>them would be tremendous. They would have to radically change

0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:51.440
<v Speaker 1>their operations uh to remove the ability or to make

0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 1>it such that they could no longer essentially moderate content.

0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:58.839
<v Speaker 1>The Supreme Court let that ruling that lower court orders

0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:00.840
<v Speaker 1>stay in effect for a couple of weeks, and now

0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:03.080
<v Speaker 1>finally the Court has intervened and said yes, we're going

0:14:03.120 --> 0:14:06.000
<v Speaker 1>to block that law again. Is there reasoning as to

0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:08.760
<v Speaker 1>why they're blocking a law and what does it mean?

0:14:09.080 --> 0:14:12.040
<v Speaker 1>Not from the full court, we did get a dissenting

0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:15.800
<v Speaker 1>opinion from free conservative justices and interestingly one of the

0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:19.480
<v Speaker 1>liberal justices the second without getting any explanation at all.

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.960
<v Speaker 1>Those three dissenters said they saw this as an affront

0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:26.600
<v Speaker 1>of state sovereignty blocking the law, they would let it

0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:28.960
<v Speaker 1>stay in effect. But from the court as a whole, no,

0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:31.400
<v Speaker 1>we didn't get any explanation. Is this the end of

0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.320
<v Speaker 1>the road for this law or does it still have

0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:37.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, an opportunity for for another life. Now it

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:40.960
<v Speaker 1>still has an opportunity. This just blocks the law while

0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.640
<v Speaker 1>the litigation goes forward, and that litigation will go forward

0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:48.480
<v Speaker 1>before that federal appeals court that said the law could

0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 1>take effect. So there may be still be some some

0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 1>serious fights on the hands of the social media companies

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 1>and their trade groups, which were the ones that that

0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:02.120
<v Speaker 1>suit to challenge into this law. Um. One other thing

0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:04.720
<v Speaker 1>to note here is that there's another law a lot

0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:07.640
<v Speaker 1>like this in Florida. That one was also blocked by

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.400
<v Speaker 1>a federal appeals court last week. So give us some

0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:14.160
<v Speaker 1>examples if this law is upheld, give us some examples

0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.960
<v Speaker 1>of what Twitter and Facebook would not be able to

0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:20.880
<v Speaker 1>do that they do. Now, Well, the law says you

0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:24.760
<v Speaker 1>can't engage in what's known as viewpoint discrimination. And what

0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:28.200
<v Speaker 1>that means is you can't say, oh, that's hate speech,

0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:30.720
<v Speaker 1>and because it's hate speech, we're gonna we're gonna take

0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:33.760
<v Speaker 1>that down, We're going to block it. Uh. So the

0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:37.760
<v Speaker 1>social media companies say, we would have to allow neo

0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:41.520
<v Speaker 1>Nazis screeds, we would have to allow anti gay screeds.

0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:46.120
<v Speaker 1>Uh and UM really would not have that ability to

0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:50.720
<v Speaker 1>serve as kind of the traffic cop on their platforms. Okay,

0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:54.040
<v Speaker 1>Greg Store, Bloomberg News, thank you, will continue to follow

0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:57.920
<v Speaker 1>that law. Um, and the Supreme Court's next take all right,

0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:01.440
<v Speaker 1>well by now pay later is a popular option for

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:04.320
<v Speaker 1>the youngest generation, but as the economy takes a tumble,

0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:09.320
<v Speaker 1>many are struggling to repay all these small loans. Joining

0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 1>us now. The CFO of a firm, Michael Linford take

0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:15.760
<v Speaker 1>a listen to him earlier with Blue Maction. Ally, Boss,

0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:20.400
<v Speaker 1>I think it's really important that investors, uh the media

0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:23.400
<v Speaker 1>that uses of our product to understand just how different

0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:27.239
<v Speaker 1>firm is We're different from both the traditional financial institutions

0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.440
<v Speaker 1>who offer revolving credit products, and we're different than the

0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.360
<v Speaker 1>B N p L competitors that I think are being

0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:37.880
<v Speaker 1>poked out in that particular analysis. Mission go ahead. Yeah,

0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:40.400
<v Speaker 1>a lot of those competitors they've never seen a down

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.680
<v Speaker 1>cycle and we're about to experience something of the sort now.

0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 1>So do you think that they're going to experience something

0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.680
<v Speaker 1>of a wash out there? I think you're already seeing

0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.400
<v Speaker 1>pressure on a lot of these players. Um that you

0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:56.320
<v Speaker 1>have people like a firm who takes our mission and

0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:59.320
<v Speaker 1>our mission has created a business model that makes it

0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.200
<v Speaker 1>so that we don't charge ladies, we don't allow consumers

0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:05.280
<v Speaker 1>to revolve on dad, we do not allow to fur interest,

0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:08.399
<v Speaker 1>and these kind of consumer oriented positions in our business

0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:10.280
<v Speaker 1>has made it so that we don't have a choice

0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:13.119
<v Speaker 1>but to underwrite very carefully. We have no way in

0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:15.840
<v Speaker 1>our business model to support consumers who don't pay us back.

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:18.600
<v Speaker 1>And our most recent quarter we posted unit economics of

0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:22.199
<v Speaker 1>four point seven percent of GMB seventy basis points ahead

0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:25.040
<v Speaker 1>of our long term guidance. We stand out amongst all

0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:27.560
<v Speaker 1>the other players. You have some players who are doing

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:29.879
<v Speaker 1>headcount reductions to try to save costs in order to

0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:32.760
<v Speaker 1>afford these credit losses, and we're in the opposite position.

0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:35.640
<v Speaker 1>We're very front footed. We're adding to our team because

0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:39.280
<v Speaker 1>our unit economics are an exceptionally strong UH position right

0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:41.720
<v Speaker 1>now because of our world class underwriting, and that's not

0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:44.280
<v Speaker 1>an accident. We had to build that based upon how

0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:47.119
<v Speaker 1>our business model was built from the first day and

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:49.000
<v Speaker 1>how we treat consumers. You know. The other thing you

0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:50.879
<v Speaker 1>had mentioned too is that you're in a position to

0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:54.040
<v Speaker 1>grow from here, even in a tough environment. What kind

0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:57.720
<v Speaker 1>of hiring plans could you have ahead, especially as you're

0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:01.840
<v Speaker 1>seeing that some of your rivals are cutting their workforce. Yeah,

0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:04.040
<v Speaker 1>we really like our position in the market. You saw

0:18:04.840 --> 0:18:07.440
<v Speaker 1>earlier this month we hired a bunch of engineers from

0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:09.680
<v Speaker 1>a payments company that was having a hard time and

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:12.439
<v Speaker 1>they were winding up operations. We do this as one

0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.119
<v Speaker 1>of the better markets for labor right now, where we

0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:18.760
<v Speaker 1>have a strong need to build great products. We're not

0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:22.000
<v Speaker 1>constrained in terms of our opportunity. We help enable the

0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:24.760
<v Speaker 1>world's fastest growing payment method and we're in the very

0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:27.719
<v Speaker 1>early innings of what our category will become, so we

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.240
<v Speaker 1>need a big team of engineers to go tackle that opportunity,

0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:33.000
<v Speaker 1>and so we're very excited to be able to impressively

0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:39.040
<v Speaker 1>grow our business again responsibly a firm CFO, they're much

0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:51.960
<v Speaker 1>more ahead. This is Bloomberg. Welcome back to Bloomber Technology,

0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:54.840
<v Speaker 1>Emily check in San Francisco. Is another day, another delay

0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:58.520
<v Speaker 1>for Elon Musk SpaceX. The Federal Aviation Administration says it

0:18:58.600 --> 0:19:02.560
<v Speaker 1>now expects to complete and environmental review of the rocket

0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:07.080
<v Speaker 1>maker's Texas facility in mid June. Another pushback, which potentially

0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:11.800
<v Speaker 1>doesn't delays the timeline for Starship Musk's Mars Moonshot. This

0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:14.159
<v Speaker 1>is the fifth time in fact, that the f A

0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:16.800
<v Speaker 1>has postponed the release of this report. From what all

0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:21.320
<v Speaker 1>means are ed Ludlow here with me. So is the

0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:23.320
<v Speaker 1>f A a buying time here? What's going on? It's

0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:26.199
<v Speaker 1>impossible to know. You know, today's May thirty one. I

0:19:26.280 --> 0:19:28.199
<v Speaker 1>was waiting for this because it was the day they

0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:30.240
<v Speaker 1>were due to make a decision, and I wrote it

0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:32.360
<v Speaker 1>down on a piece of paper because I'm not embarrassed

0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:34.960
<v Speaker 1>about that. M They have delayed it five times, and

0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:37.880
<v Speaker 1>the last time we were waiting for this was on nine.

0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:39.760
<v Speaker 1>So I sat here waiting, and they delayed it till

0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:43.880
<v Speaker 1>May thirty one. But it's important because spaces cannot make

0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:47.359
<v Speaker 1>any progress on this. Starship planned the testing phase at

0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.359
<v Speaker 1>least until they get clearance from the fair. Now, you

0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.560
<v Speaker 1>were on the ground in Boca Chica in February, remember

0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:56.480
<v Speaker 1>that vividly and Elon Musk made it sound like Starship

0:19:56.520 --> 0:19:59.080
<v Speaker 1>was just around the corner, right, And at that time

0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:02.080
<v Speaker 1>he basically expected that the regulatory side of things, this

0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:04.440
<v Speaker 1>environmental review would be done in a couple of months,

0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:06.439
<v Speaker 1>a test flight, the hardware would be ready in a

0:20:06.440 --> 0:20:08.760
<v Speaker 1>couple of months, and he had an even bolder prediction

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:14.560
<v Speaker 1>for what would happen. Take a listen. It might be

0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:17.120
<v Speaker 1>a few bumps along the road, a bit at all work. Um.

0:20:17.160 --> 0:20:23.040
<v Speaker 1>I feel at this point highly confident that we will

0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:28.680
<v Speaker 1>get to orbit this year classic mask orbital test flight

0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:30.439
<v Speaker 1>by the end of this year. But we don't know

0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:33.919
<v Speaker 1>where we stand now because this key beast keeps getting delayed. Well,

0:20:33.960 --> 0:20:35.720
<v Speaker 1>so that was my next question, what do we know

0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:38.520
<v Speaker 1>about where we stand with Starship? So you've seen the video,

0:20:38.520 --> 0:20:40.560
<v Speaker 1>I think if the Mr Director will play it again,

0:20:40.600 --> 0:20:43.680
<v Speaker 1>the explosions, the kind of successful test they've only really

0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:46.199
<v Speaker 1>done hops off the ground, and what Starship needs to

0:20:46.240 --> 0:20:48.280
<v Speaker 1>do is an orbital test flight. That's kind of the

0:20:48.320 --> 0:20:52.840
<v Speaker 1>big milestone moment where it breaches as atmosphere, comes back

0:20:52.840 --> 0:20:55.560
<v Speaker 1>down and lands again. That's we're waiting for Gwin shot. Well,

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:58.080
<v Speaker 1>who's the president CEO said it could happen in June.

0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:01.040
<v Speaker 1>Doesn't seem like that if the f A decisions not

0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:05.600
<v Speaker 1>Dune now until June. Meantime, of course, you've got SpaceX

0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:08.840
<v Speaker 1>generally going from straight to strength, pulling off you know,

0:21:08.920 --> 0:21:13.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of successes. So as of Friday, Starlink there

0:21:14.440 --> 0:21:18.920
<v Speaker 1>space satellite constellation based internet service is available in all

0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:22.240
<v Speaker 1>seven continents. He expanded to Africa as of Friday. That's

0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:27.040
<v Speaker 1>quite an achievement. And today this may first really important

0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:31.159
<v Speaker 1>date ten years ago, first unmanned Dragon missions I s S,

0:21:31.320 --> 0:21:34.399
<v Speaker 1>two years ago, first man one. They're dominating you know,

0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:37.640
<v Speaker 1>this industry. But we really care about Starship because it's

0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:39.360
<v Speaker 1>like you said, it's the Mars shot of the moon

0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:42.480
<v Speaker 1>shot all right, at Law, thank you, well, keep watchally,

0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:46.360
<v Speaker 1>you'll keep us posted. Well. Today mark the first day

0:21:46.359 --> 0:21:49.200
<v Speaker 1>on the job for the new CEO of match Coupernard Kimp.

0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:53.560
<v Speaker 1>He is leaving Zinger, where he's been president. Since he's

0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:55.679
<v Speaker 1>taking over for Shardubi, who has been at the company

0:21:55.680 --> 0:21:58.320
<v Speaker 1>for the last sixteen years. It is a pivotal time

0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:00.439
<v Speaker 1>for dating apps, especially as we are heard from the

0:22:00.440 --> 0:22:03.439
<v Speaker 1>pandemic and much of the world faces inflation. I am

0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:06.080
<v Speaker 1>joined now by Sea Kajuria and analyst at Evercres, who

0:22:06.160 --> 0:22:09.159
<v Speaker 1>just published a deep dive on not only Match but

0:22:09.280 --> 0:22:11.840
<v Speaker 1>also Bumble. So, so what do you make of this

0:22:11.880 --> 0:22:15.320
<v Speaker 1>new leadership and also coming from the gaming space to

0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:20.040
<v Speaker 1>online dating. Is that a good thing? Well, we'll have

0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:23.680
<v Speaker 1>to see. I Uh, he's done a good job at Zinga.

0:22:23.800 --> 0:22:28.080
<v Speaker 1>Matches slightly different but also similar in a lot of ways. Uh.

0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:31.040
<v Speaker 1>There are two things that are good I think are

0:22:31.560 --> 0:22:35.080
<v Speaker 1>one that there are some similarities between what he did

0:22:35.080 --> 0:22:38.439
<v Speaker 1>at Zinga and at Match portfolio of assets and a

0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:42.080
<v Speaker 1>global business, both in favor of what matches strategy is.

0:22:42.480 --> 0:22:44.639
<v Speaker 1>The other thing that's good is that shar is not

0:22:44.760 --> 0:22:46.760
<v Speaker 1>really leaving. She is going to be part of the

0:22:46.800 --> 0:22:50.240
<v Speaker 1>board and she will be working UM as an advisor

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:55.119
<v Speaker 1>to UM to Bernard. And also it's not the CEO

0:22:55.320 --> 0:22:59.919
<v Speaker 1>change is not uh a turnaround story. It's not like

0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:03.800
<v Speaker 1>Peloton where you have to rework everything. This is a

0:23:03.880 --> 0:23:07.359
<v Speaker 1>functioning business. It's a strong leader in online dating and

0:23:07.359 --> 0:23:10.080
<v Speaker 1>its category of global business. And he's going to come

0:23:10.119 --> 0:23:12.560
<v Speaker 1>in and it's going to be business for usual at

0:23:12.600 --> 0:23:14.800
<v Speaker 1>least for the near term. And then as he settled in,

0:23:15.280 --> 0:23:18.600
<v Speaker 1>he will throw in his own strategy as he gets comfortable.

0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:21.000
<v Speaker 1>So I don't think there will be huge turbulence in

0:23:21.000 --> 0:23:24.040
<v Speaker 1>the in the business as he comes on board. So

0:23:24.119 --> 0:23:27.320
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about your new report, because you're basically saying

0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:29.920
<v Speaker 1>that you think online dating and as we go through

0:23:29.920 --> 0:23:36.240
<v Speaker 1>all of this market folatility using online dating is recession proof. Why, well,

0:23:36.720 --> 0:23:40.320
<v Speaker 1>largely recession proof. The the beauty of UH or the

0:23:40.400 --> 0:23:43.760
<v Speaker 1>challenge of being in consumer internet, is that none of

0:23:43.800 --> 0:23:48.160
<v Speaker 1>our names are recession proof. Really, so they're they're certainly

0:23:48.520 --> 0:23:51.240
<v Speaker 1>impacted by inflation, but when it compared to the rest

0:23:51.280 --> 0:23:55.080
<v Speaker 1>of our coverage, yes, they're largely resilient. Um And our

0:23:55.160 --> 0:23:58.600
<v Speaker 1>survey shows that almost eighty percent of those who are

0:23:58.640 --> 0:24:01.560
<v Speaker 1>actively looking for a relate reationship are going to use

0:24:02.160 --> 0:24:05.439
<v Speaker 1>the online dating apps just as much or even more

0:24:05.480 --> 0:24:07.880
<v Speaker 1>over the next call it six months to twelve months.

0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:10.240
<v Speaker 1>And so that tells me that usage is not going

0:24:10.320 --> 0:24:14.639
<v Speaker 1>to change um. The second read through was that if

0:24:14.800 --> 0:24:18.000
<v Speaker 1>there is inflationary pressure and there is a recession in

0:24:18.040 --> 0:24:23.160
<v Speaker 1>the next six months, most of them, of our survey respondents,

0:24:23.280 --> 0:24:25.560
<v Speaker 1>so that they would be willing to pay about seventeen

0:24:25.560 --> 0:24:27.880
<v Speaker 1>dollars a month on average for an online dating app,

0:24:28.080 --> 0:24:30.159
<v Speaker 1>and that's where we are today, So it's not that

0:24:30.200 --> 0:24:32.479
<v Speaker 1>they would pay any less. Now, the question is, well,

0:24:32.520 --> 0:24:35.119
<v Speaker 1>Bumble is slightly more expensive, so would that come from Bumble?

0:24:35.160 --> 0:24:36.920
<v Speaker 1>And I don't think so. I don't think that may

0:24:36.920 --> 0:24:40.120
<v Speaker 1>be the case either, because Bumble has several different tail ones.

0:24:40.760 --> 0:24:43.800
<v Speaker 1>So when you look at the online dating landscape and

0:24:43.840 --> 0:24:47.160
<v Speaker 1>the options out there, is you know, Bumble, our Tinder,

0:24:47.359 --> 0:24:50.119
<v Speaker 1>hinge Match, Are they all more or less equal in

0:24:50.119 --> 0:24:53.719
<v Speaker 1>your view? Or do some stand out over others? I

0:24:53.720 --> 0:24:57.200
<v Speaker 1>think some stand out over others. What our survey also

0:24:57.240 --> 0:25:01.400
<v Speaker 1>showed is that Bumble is really gaining market share. And

0:25:01.600 --> 0:25:05.240
<v Speaker 1>the one of the biggest investor questions into the key

0:25:05.280 --> 0:25:08.240
<v Speaker 1>one print was what where's where's the market share shift?

0:25:08.359 --> 0:25:10.480
<v Speaker 1>Is it is Bumble gaining share from Tinder? Is it

0:25:10.560 --> 0:25:13.480
<v Speaker 1>something else? Our survey shows that really Tinder continues to

0:25:13.600 --> 0:25:16.119
<v Speaker 1>be the leader in the market, but Bumble is gaining

0:25:16.200 --> 0:25:19.560
<v Speaker 1>share from plenty of fisient e harmony, so other apps

0:25:19.680 --> 0:25:22.720
<v Speaker 1>that have been around but may not be as powerful

0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:26.760
<v Speaker 1>as a bumble and so in the United States, our

0:25:26.800 --> 0:25:29.440
<v Speaker 1>survey shows it's Tinder as number one, Bumble as a

0:25:29.560 --> 0:25:32.840
<v Speaker 1>clear number two, and Hinge is also gaining ground to

0:25:32.960 --> 0:25:36.240
<v Speaker 1>now number four, back from number seven last year. So

0:25:37.400 --> 0:25:40.199
<v Speaker 1>not all apps are created equal, even though the target

0:25:40.440 --> 0:25:44.160
<v Speaker 1>target market may be slightly different depending on your background

0:25:45.080 --> 0:25:48.439
<v Speaker 1>or one's background. But more Match and Bumble are doing

0:25:48.560 --> 0:25:51.399
<v Speaker 1>with the product is certainly superior to some of the

0:25:51.480 --> 0:25:54.080
<v Speaker 1>other apps out there. Well, engagement is one thing, but

0:25:54.160 --> 0:25:57.639
<v Speaker 1>getting people to pay for it is the other. You know,

0:25:57.800 --> 0:25:59.560
<v Speaker 1>which of these do you think is the best at

0:25:59.680 --> 0:26:02.880
<v Speaker 1>at generating that that revenue and getting users to pay

0:26:02.960 --> 0:26:05.040
<v Speaker 1>up for something that that that many of the big

0:26:05.200 --> 0:26:09.480
<v Speaker 1>should be free. Yeah, the great question. All of Almost

0:26:09.520 --> 0:26:12.600
<v Speaker 1>all of these are freemium models at different prices at

0:26:12.640 --> 0:26:16.760
<v Speaker 1>different price points, but our survey shows that most users

0:26:16.920 --> 0:26:21.840
<v Speaker 1>are willing to pay for Tender, e Harmony, Match, Bumble,

0:26:22.040 --> 0:26:24.480
<v Speaker 1>and Hinge. These are the top five paid four apps.

0:26:24.520 --> 0:26:26.840
<v Speaker 1>And some of the reasons for e Harmony and matches

0:26:26.880 --> 0:26:30.880
<v Speaker 1>also because of the demographics their older uh older age

0:26:30.920 --> 0:26:34.199
<v Speaker 1>folks who may have greater savings and are more serious

0:26:34.240 --> 0:26:36.840
<v Speaker 1>about relationship and that's where the fair conversion is slightly

0:26:36.920 --> 0:26:40.040
<v Speaker 1>greater in those apps. Um. But at the same time,

0:26:40.160 --> 0:26:44.920
<v Speaker 1>on average, our survey shows it's about conversion, which maybe

0:26:45.040 --> 0:26:47.800
<v Speaker 1>is a little skewed because I know that Bumble's conversion

0:26:47.880 --> 0:26:51.480
<v Speaker 1>rate is slightly lower, But there's the point still holds

0:26:51.560 --> 0:26:54.080
<v Speaker 1>that there's long runway for growth in terms of how

0:26:54.160 --> 0:26:56.080
<v Speaker 1>many users they are that used for free and then

0:26:56.160 --> 0:26:59.600
<v Speaker 1>how many the potential there is that they can convert.

0:26:59.680 --> 0:27:01.440
<v Speaker 1>And the other thing I'll add is it's not only

0:27:01.520 --> 0:27:05.159
<v Speaker 1>subscription there now also adding all our card services, you

0:27:05.240 --> 0:27:07.840
<v Speaker 1>get buy a feature, uh instead of just paying for

0:27:08.119 --> 0:27:10.560
<v Speaker 1>a monthly subscription, and you can just pay as you

0:27:10.640 --> 0:27:13.680
<v Speaker 1>go as you use more features. And that's also gaining share.

0:27:14.560 --> 0:27:18.680
<v Speaker 1>So what are the the risks to the online dating sector. Well,

0:27:18.800 --> 0:27:22.320
<v Speaker 1>the risk is that the reopening across geographies is not

0:27:22.480 --> 0:27:24.960
<v Speaker 1>the same. So for example, Japan is number two market

0:27:25.040 --> 0:27:27.720
<v Speaker 1>for Match and that has been very slow in terms

0:27:27.760 --> 0:27:31.240
<v Speaker 1>of seeing the reopening and people actually meeting in person,

0:27:31.320 --> 0:27:33.080
<v Speaker 1>and that has been a drag on their growth rate.

0:27:33.160 --> 0:27:38.040
<v Speaker 1>Because uh, Bumble pairs and pump Pairs and Tender are

0:27:38.119 --> 0:27:41.159
<v Speaker 1>both really big in Japan. So one of the biggest

0:27:41.240 --> 0:27:45.440
<v Speaker 1>risk is is the is the reopening curve across different geographies.

0:27:45.800 --> 0:27:50.120
<v Speaker 1>The second risk is that not all demographics are the same,

0:27:50.240 --> 0:27:54.400
<v Speaker 1>and so if there is inflationary pressure, it is possible

0:27:54.440 --> 0:27:57.800
<v Speaker 1>that some apps may lose share over others um and

0:27:57.920 --> 0:28:00.000
<v Speaker 1>that will be the question of which once people decide

0:28:00.000 --> 0:28:05.280
<v Speaker 1>a compete versus let's go Alright Cajuria, analyst at ever Core,

0:28:05.440 --> 0:28:19.959
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much. What to time now for our crypto

0:28:20.000 --> 0:28:22.760
<v Speaker 1>report and Bitcoin higher for a fourth day, the big

0:28:23.160 --> 0:28:26.720
<v Speaker 1>bouncing back above thirty dollars and then some as it

0:28:26.760 --> 0:28:28.680
<v Speaker 1>recovers from a sharp decline in the past three weeks.

0:28:28.720 --> 0:28:32.160
<v Speaker 1>But it is still down in May. Our crypto contributor

0:28:32.200 --> 0:28:34.960
<v Speaker 1>Snale bossi here with more so Shanale. When you look

0:28:35.000 --> 0:28:37.840
<v Speaker 1>at the broader equities picture, we're kind of back where

0:28:37.880 --> 0:28:39.720
<v Speaker 1>we started here at the end of May, but with

0:28:39.840 --> 0:28:45.400
<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin still significantly down. Yes, what goes around keeps going around, Emily,

0:28:45.440 --> 0:28:47.440
<v Speaker 1>it goes around and around. So when we talk about

0:28:47.440 --> 0:28:50.480
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin here, yeah, it's I mean the price movements here

0:28:50.600 --> 0:28:52.720
<v Speaker 1>on On one hand, you have a lot of people saying, okay,

0:28:52.760 --> 0:28:54.480
<v Speaker 1>it's time to build this, time to put our heads

0:28:54.520 --> 0:28:56.800
<v Speaker 1>down in a down market and and really, you know,

0:28:57.080 --> 0:28:59.200
<v Speaker 1>make projects that will last for long term. So what

0:28:59.360 --> 0:29:02.200
<v Speaker 1>where are we? Bitcoin has really risen in the last week.

0:29:02.240 --> 0:29:05.000
<v Speaker 1>It has not risen past thirty two thousand, but it

0:29:05.120 --> 0:29:07.960
<v Speaker 1>is above that thirty thousand level. We are down meaningfully

0:29:07.960 --> 0:29:09.880
<v Speaker 1>on the month, as you said, about sixteen percent, while

0:29:09.880 --> 0:29:12.440
<v Speaker 1>the SMP has not moved much at all. The questions

0:29:12.480 --> 0:29:15.160
<v Speaker 1>moving forward will be about correlations. I also want to

0:29:15.240 --> 0:29:19.440
<v Speaker 1>draw attention Emily here to Ethereum. Why because Ethereum is

0:29:19.680 --> 0:29:22.240
<v Speaker 1>also down not just on the month, but on the

0:29:22.400 --> 0:29:24.720
<v Speaker 1>week as well. So you have seen a divergence in

0:29:24.800 --> 0:29:29.280
<v Speaker 1>the last week between the two large cryptocurrencies. The questions

0:29:29.320 --> 0:29:32.479
<v Speaker 1>moving forward here, well, how will they react in relation

0:29:32.520 --> 0:29:34.400
<v Speaker 1>to each other and react to the rest of the

0:29:34.440 --> 0:29:37.720
<v Speaker 1>crypto universe and in reaction to a lot of the

0:29:37.800 --> 0:29:40.400
<v Speaker 1>macro environment that we've been watching so closely this month.

0:29:40.480 --> 0:29:42.560
<v Speaker 1>And you know we've been talking about those venture funds.

0:29:42.600 --> 0:29:45.400
<v Speaker 1>How will they deploy money in this continuously down market?

0:29:46.040 --> 0:29:49.000
<v Speaker 1>All right, Shanali, thanks much. We're gonna hear more on

0:29:49.240 --> 0:29:52.440
<v Speaker 1>this from Alice Kaleen, founder managing partner at the bitcoin

0:29:52.480 --> 0:29:55.560
<v Speaker 1>focused venture firm still Mark, who talked about all of

0:29:55.600 --> 0:29:58.320
<v Speaker 1>this and more with my colleagues Matt Miller and Kaylee Lines.

0:29:58.520 --> 0:30:03.000
<v Speaker 1>Take a listen. Bitcoin companies historically have really thrived in

0:30:03.080 --> 0:30:05.840
<v Speaker 1>crypto winters. It's the time to build, it's the time

0:30:05.880 --> 0:30:09.080
<v Speaker 1>to be focused on sound tech and bitcoin. Is that so?

0:30:09.440 --> 0:30:13.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we've seen Bitcoin moving back towards the lion

0:30:13.280 --> 0:30:16.440
<v Speaker 1>share of market cap. It's so fascinating that bitcoin can be.

0:30:16.840 --> 0:30:20.040
<v Speaker 1>I think right now forty five percent of the market

0:30:20.120 --> 0:30:23.240
<v Speaker 1>cap of all crypto and we're talking about twenty thousand

0:30:23.880 --> 0:30:31.040
<v Speaker 1>um some coins. Is this not an existential crisis for crypto,

0:30:31.200 --> 0:30:34.800
<v Speaker 1>for bitcoins, for bitcoin, for bitcoin. So I think that

0:30:34.920 --> 0:30:38.920
<v Speaker 1>bitcoint so Bitcoin's masscot is the honey badger. And what

0:30:39.040 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 1>that represents to the community is that bitcoin as a

0:30:42.000 --> 0:30:46.000
<v Speaker 1>sound tech sort of hasn't cared about what's happening around it.

0:30:46.120 --> 0:30:49.600
<v Speaker 1>It operates very independently, and in fact, that's the purpose

0:30:49.680 --> 0:30:54.120
<v Speaker 1>of the protocol. Bitcoin was invented. It was emergent of

0:30:54.320 --> 0:30:57.440
<v Speaker 1>two decades of work on how to build an open

0:30:57.640 --> 0:31:01.720
<v Speaker 1>and fair financial system that served the underbanked and the

0:31:01.840 --> 0:31:05.040
<v Speaker 1>unbanked in the same way that it served the wealthy

0:31:05.080 --> 0:31:09.200
<v Speaker 1>and privileged. And so bitcoin and bitcoin builders are generally

0:31:09.280 --> 0:31:13.160
<v Speaker 1>really heads down. Now. I think something interesting that's happening

0:31:13.240 --> 0:31:16.320
<v Speaker 1>today that you see reflected in the markets, in the

0:31:16.400 --> 0:31:19.120
<v Speaker 1>crypto markets and in the bitcoin market as well as

0:31:19.160 --> 0:31:21.920
<v Speaker 1>in the Broado macro environment, is that there's a collision

0:31:21.960 --> 0:31:25.880
<v Speaker 1>of two things. Bitcoin is cyclical, It's cycles have been

0:31:26.000 --> 0:31:30.360
<v Speaker 1>historically driven by having se affect miners, and so we

0:31:30.440 --> 0:31:32.800
<v Speaker 1>see about a three to four year cycle for bitcoin,

0:31:32.880 --> 0:31:35.560
<v Speaker 1>which has an impact on the rest of crypto of course,

0:31:36.000 --> 0:31:39.480
<v Speaker 1>But now we've also seen a macro economic downturn and

0:31:39.560 --> 0:31:42.480
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin trades as a risk on asset currently. I think

0:31:42.560 --> 0:31:45.600
<v Speaker 1>that over the long term that will change, but today

0:31:45.720 --> 0:31:48.400
<v Speaker 1>that's the case, and so these forces are at play

0:31:48.480 --> 0:31:51.200
<v Speaker 1>and how we see um what we see happening with

0:31:51.280 --> 0:31:56.160
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin's volatility. However, if we look back historically to two

0:31:56.280 --> 0:32:01.240
<v Speaker 1>thousand and eight and another example of acrow a challenging

0:32:01.320 --> 0:32:05.200
<v Speaker 1>macro environment, what we saw then was that new paradigms

0:32:05.280 --> 0:32:09.320
<v Speaker 1>introduced by cloud and mobile were really powerful tail winds

0:32:09.400 --> 0:32:12.080
<v Speaker 1>for fledgling company. Are we going to see, by the way,

0:32:12.080 --> 0:32:16.920
<v Speaker 1>at least um any new way of is proof of

0:32:17.160 --> 0:32:20.520
<v Speaker 1>work going to be a thing of the past, or

0:32:20.640 --> 0:32:23.560
<v Speaker 1>is it still the only trustworthy way to maintain the blockchain.

0:32:24.880 --> 0:32:27.080
<v Speaker 1>Proof of work is a thing of the future, so

0:32:27.280 --> 0:32:31.400
<v Speaker 1>it's it's the only trustworthy way to maintain a decentralized

0:32:31.520 --> 0:32:35.960
<v Speaker 1>and fair payments and financial system. And that's that's bitcoin.

0:32:36.320 --> 0:32:39.560
<v Speaker 1>But the economics of mining, economics of proof of work

0:32:40.080 --> 0:32:45.440
<v Speaker 1>incentivized investment major investment in sustainable energy. We know that

0:32:45.680 --> 0:32:50.160
<v Speaker 1>today the sustainable energy represents about fifty eight percent of

0:32:50.280 --> 0:32:54.160
<v Speaker 1>all energy used for mining. And that's the sixty year

0:32:54.200 --> 0:32:59.360
<v Speaker 1>of your growth, So increase from Q one. Now. The

0:32:59.480 --> 0:33:02.560
<v Speaker 1>fact a bitcoin mining has been able to so quickly

0:33:02.640 --> 0:33:06.840
<v Speaker 1>transition to a sustainable energy source as the dominant source,

0:33:07.360 --> 0:33:10.160
<v Speaker 1>I hope will be an example for other sectors to follow.

0:33:11.960 --> 0:33:15.480
<v Speaker 1>At last, Colleen their founder and managing partner at still Mark,

0:33:16.360 --> 0:33:18.960
<v Speaker 1>coming up the future of a cloud growth. Going to

0:33:19.000 --> 0:33:21.960
<v Speaker 1>talk about how market volatility is impacting the cloud and

0:33:22.360 --> 0:33:24.720
<v Speaker 1>the next big trends in cloud and software ahead with

0:33:24.800 --> 0:33:55.560
<v Speaker 1>Greylock partner Jerry Chen. This is Bloomberg. We're seeing that

0:33:55.920 --> 0:33:58.760
<v Speaker 1>the market is entering valat has some volatility in different

0:33:58.800 --> 0:34:02.080
<v Speaker 1>parts of the world, but technology is seen as helping

0:34:02.280 --> 0:34:07.520
<v Speaker 1>organizations no address supply chain shortages of customers better get

0:34:07.600 --> 0:34:11.319
<v Speaker 1>online digitally and so demand for cloud remains very strong.

0:34:11.440 --> 0:34:15.920
<v Speaker 1>For US, Google Cloud chief Thomas carrying their forecasting clouds

0:34:16.000 --> 0:34:19.400
<v Speaker 1>growth in the midst of chopp eat market conditions. Was

0:34:19.440 --> 0:34:22.600
<v Speaker 1>certainly a banner year for cloud investing, with total VC

0:34:22.760 --> 0:34:26.879
<v Speaker 1>funding hitting fifty point three billion dollars. Our next guest

0:34:26.960 --> 0:34:29.320
<v Speaker 1>has a forecast on where all that funding will go.

0:34:29.960 --> 0:34:32.439
<v Speaker 1>In this week's Teconomics, I want to bring in Jerry

0:34:32.520 --> 0:34:36.400
<v Speaker 1>chen Now from Graylock Partners, So Jerry share your forecast

0:34:36.640 --> 0:34:40.040
<v Speaker 1>with us. Hey, I'm like, thanks for having me back. Look,

0:34:40.360 --> 0:34:43.360
<v Speaker 1>I think Tom's is right. In a volatile market and

0:34:43.400 --> 0:34:46.399
<v Speaker 1>a commuracy right now, cloud actually is going to see

0:34:46.480 --> 0:34:49.959
<v Speaker 1>increased boat in a market revenue rights two hundred billion

0:34:50.080 --> 0:34:52.600
<v Speaker 1>run rate through all the big three or four cloud providers,

0:34:52.840 --> 0:34:56.160
<v Speaker 1>but also from startups. We're seeing fifty billion plus last

0:34:56.280 --> 0:35:00.200
<v Speaker 1>year in cloud investment by vcs Graylock included. But think

0:35:00.239 --> 0:35:03.080
<v Speaker 1>the emphasises see going forward is a lot around two areas.

0:35:03.320 --> 0:35:05.320
<v Speaker 1>Security continues to be a big deal in the cloud.

0:35:05.640 --> 0:35:08.279
<v Speaker 1>Number two cost savers. So as we see kind of

0:35:08.320 --> 0:35:12.359
<v Speaker 1>this next market, governance, developer tools, data tools will all

0:35:12.440 --> 0:35:14.960
<v Speaker 1>continue to grow, but really focus on how to save

0:35:15.000 --> 0:35:19.239
<v Speaker 1>our customers money. So how do you think this market

0:35:19.360 --> 0:35:22.319
<v Speaker 1>volatility will impact the broader cloud landscape. Obviously we heard

0:35:22.360 --> 0:35:24.960
<v Speaker 1>Google Cloud CEO Thomas carry in there, but it's hard

0:35:25.000 --> 0:35:28.640
<v Speaker 1>not to believe that, you know, this isn't going to

0:35:28.800 --> 0:35:33.359
<v Speaker 1>impact how big customers are spending their money. I would

0:35:33.400 --> 0:35:36.680
<v Speaker 1>say big customers the music cloud grows about twenty year

0:35:36.719 --> 0:35:38.640
<v Speaker 1>a year in terms of compound at a growth rate,

0:35:38.719 --> 0:35:40.840
<v Speaker 1>and the big customers will continue to sped. And like

0:35:40.960 --> 0:35:43.279
<v Speaker 1>I said earlier, the two or three errors are seeing

0:35:43.360 --> 0:35:46.239
<v Speaker 1>around our security for sure. For example, I think we

0:35:46.280 --> 0:35:49.000
<v Speaker 1>saw over seven billion dollars in VC funding go into

0:35:49.040 --> 0:35:52.439
<v Speaker 1>security startups. The big cloud customers will, can you span

0:35:52.520 --> 0:35:55.680
<v Speaker 1>on security companies for example, Abnormal Security, one of the

0:35:55.760 --> 0:35:58.120
<v Speaker 1>Grellic Protfoya companies, just raised a ton of money last

0:35:58.200 --> 0:36:02.000
<v Speaker 1>year for email and a security number two. I think

0:36:02.120 --> 0:36:05.360
<v Speaker 1>cloud customers will can you spend money on things like data?

0:36:05.719 --> 0:36:07.520
<v Speaker 1>So we saw like Snowflake continues to do well in

0:36:07.520 --> 0:36:10.120
<v Speaker 1>the public market, data breaks continues to do well in

0:36:10.160 --> 0:36:13.479
<v Speaker 1>the private market. But increasingly startups in the data bricks

0:36:13.520 --> 0:36:16.439
<v Speaker 1>and snowplate ecosystem will be focused on how to save

0:36:16.560 --> 0:36:19.560
<v Speaker 1>customers money around data costs. So I think the big

0:36:19.680 --> 0:36:22.680
<v Speaker 1>three continue to grow. I think security and data and

0:36:22.800 --> 0:36:27.040
<v Speaker 1>AI continue to grow, but increasingly a focus on customer

0:36:27.120 --> 0:36:29.840
<v Speaker 1>spending and enterprise spending and how to reduce costs for

0:36:29.880 --> 0:36:31.760
<v Speaker 1>the next two or three years would be a big focus.

0:36:32.400 --> 0:36:35.359
<v Speaker 1>So how would you characterize VC sentiment? I mean we've

0:36:35.360 --> 0:36:38.960
<v Speaker 1>been hearing from vcs. You know, turl back, batten down

0:36:39.000 --> 0:36:43.440
<v Speaker 1>the hatches. You know, you might have to take evaluation, haircut,

0:36:43.520 --> 0:36:45.439
<v Speaker 1>you might not be able to raise your next round

0:36:45.480 --> 0:36:48.439
<v Speaker 1>when you thought you would. How would you characterize your

0:36:48.520 --> 0:36:54.279
<v Speaker 1>sentiment broadly? And then that sentiment when it comes to cloud. Sure,

0:36:54.440 --> 0:36:56.719
<v Speaker 1>if you look at the data from I think Carter

0:36:56.880 --> 0:36:59.680
<v Speaker 1>and pitch Book and the other data sets out there,

0:37:00.120 --> 0:37:03.560
<v Speaker 1>Series A valuation, you're down from the year ago. I

0:37:03.600 --> 0:37:06.759
<v Speaker 1>think Series C, Serie D financing valuation, you're down from

0:37:06.760 --> 0:37:09.680
<v Speaker 1>a year ago. And for sure, we're seeing a tightening

0:37:09.800 --> 0:37:12.880
<v Speaker 1>of the venture market towards a bunch of ideas. But

0:37:12.960 --> 0:37:15.600
<v Speaker 1>I would say my personal sentiment, graylock sentiment, and the

0:37:15.680 --> 0:37:18.440
<v Speaker 1>center of our companies here is Look, if you have

0:37:19.360 --> 0:37:22.719
<v Speaker 1>a distinct value add like a hard return on investment

0:37:22.840 --> 0:37:26.080
<v Speaker 1>for a cloud company, and that is emily either securing

0:37:26.120 --> 0:37:30.320
<v Speaker 1>the company through like security products, firewall products, UM, improving

0:37:30.400 --> 0:37:32.920
<v Speaker 1>the digital business of the business of the company like

0:37:33.440 --> 0:37:36.760
<v Speaker 1>AI or a machine learning to help transform transform the business,

0:37:37.200 --> 0:37:40.400
<v Speaker 1>or three saving your customers money. So if you can

0:37:40.440 --> 0:37:45.399
<v Speaker 1>reduce cloud spend, reduced storage spend, reduce data spend as

0:37:45.440 --> 0:37:48.000
<v Speaker 1>a startup, you can have a hard or a I

0:37:48.320 --> 0:37:50.560
<v Speaker 1>and you're actually gonna pop to the top of a

0:37:50.840 --> 0:37:53.680
<v Speaker 1>CIOs wish list. So it's saying, in the past two

0:37:53.760 --> 0:37:55.960
<v Speaker 1>or three years, we've seen a lot of great ideas

0:37:56.120 --> 0:37:58.560
<v Speaker 1>thrown out there, but in the next two years, we're

0:37:58.600 --> 0:38:02.759
<v Speaker 1>gonna see a fewer. Your company's really focus on UM,

0:38:02.840 --> 0:38:06.160
<v Speaker 1>saving money, improving the digital economy. Because if you're doing

0:38:06.239 --> 0:38:09.719
<v Speaker 1>wellness market show really hard r o I, Emily, you're

0:38:09.760 --> 0:38:12.240
<v Speaker 1>gonna get more budget and more awareness from your customers.

0:38:12.280 --> 0:38:14.279
<v Speaker 1>So I think you're seeing a separation the market. The

0:38:14.360 --> 0:38:17.120
<v Speaker 1>great companies will get more of the customer said, and

0:38:17.200 --> 0:38:19.560
<v Speaker 1>the tier two tier three companies will struggle to raise

0:38:19.800 --> 0:38:21.600
<v Speaker 1>because they don't have a real hard r o I

0:38:21.800 --> 0:38:26.480
<v Speaker 1>for the customers. So we're saying, look, would you say

0:38:26.520 --> 0:38:30.360
<v Speaker 1>that trend also extends to hiring and and and layoffs

0:38:30.400 --> 0:38:34.160
<v Speaker 1>to me, because we've seen hiring freezes and and layoffs

0:38:34.360 --> 0:38:37.239
<v Speaker 1>kind of across the board. Yeah, I think a lot

0:38:37.280 --> 0:38:39.760
<v Speaker 1>of companies are looking at their burn rates and realizing

0:38:39.800 --> 0:38:42.759
<v Speaker 1>that their economics were just upside down, right, So hey,

0:38:43.040 --> 0:38:46.400
<v Speaker 1>the burn rage not sustainable. Uh. Where the capital markets

0:38:46.480 --> 0:38:49.719
<v Speaker 1>are right now aren't guaranteed they're gonna raise either up

0:38:49.760 --> 0:38:53.160
<v Speaker 1>valuation or even flat valuation. So we're seeing a lot

0:38:53.200 --> 0:38:56.839
<v Speaker 1>of companies say, hey, I'd rather be uh slightly conservative,

0:38:57.320 --> 0:38:59.640
<v Speaker 1>save my money from the next not one year runway,

0:38:59.719 --> 0:39:02.520
<v Speaker 1>but two years of runway until the capital markets and

0:39:02.600 --> 0:39:05.800
<v Speaker 1>vendroom markets get a little bit more predictable, because I

0:39:05.920 --> 0:39:09.240
<v Speaker 1>think just like public stock market hates anscertainty, the private

0:39:09.280 --> 0:39:12.680
<v Speaker 1>markets around vendroom companies and startups also hate anserdity. So

0:39:12.800 --> 0:39:15.120
<v Speaker 1>until we have a lot more aberdainity of what like

0:39:15.239 --> 0:39:18.040
<v Speaker 1>the Series B, Serious C, Series D Financis look like,

0:39:18.520 --> 0:39:19.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, a lot of startups are gonna be a

0:39:19.800 --> 0:39:22.839
<v Speaker 1>little more conservative. But that said, if there's a good

0:39:23.000 --> 0:39:25.480
<v Speaker 1>r o I on their spend on sales and market emily,

0:39:25.680 --> 0:39:28.880
<v Speaker 1>they're gonna continue. Higher sales, reps, continue higher engineers, the

0:39:28.960 --> 0:39:31.080
<v Speaker 1>good comes to do well. But I think we just

0:39:31.160 --> 0:39:34.879
<v Speaker 1>need a little more clarity where the markets going. Jerry Chen,

0:39:35.360 --> 0:39:37.680
<v Speaker 1>Great Luck Partners, Great to have you back with us. Jerry,

0:39:37.719 --> 0:39:40.240
<v Speaker 1>thanks for giving us a view on the cloud ahead.

0:39:41.160 --> 0:39:43.680
<v Speaker 1>And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Technology

0:39:43.719 --> 0:39:46.120
<v Speaker 1>will be right back here tomorrow. I'll be joined by

0:39:46.200 --> 0:39:49.239
<v Speaker 1>Resta Show, Johnny founder of Girls Who Code, and David

0:39:49.320 --> 0:39:52.440
<v Speaker 1>Kirkpatrick to talk about that new Supreme Court ruling on

0:39:52.520 --> 0:39:55.960
<v Speaker 1>the Texas social media law. That's tomorrow. This is Bloomerk.

0:40:00.840 --> 0:40:02.520
<v Speaker 1>Keep the sat N