1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,599
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

2
00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200
Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

3
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,840
Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

4
00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:08,760
Speaker 2: the future of this show.

5
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

6
00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,239
Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

7
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,680
Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

8
00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,080
Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

9
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,599
Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

10
00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,

11
00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,600
Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

12
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,560
Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

13
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

14
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:35,519
Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. I have an

15
00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:36,600
Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today.

16
00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:37,240
Speaker 1: What do I have, Crystal?

17
00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,360
Speaker 2: Another monster show? A lot, a lot, a lot going on.

18
00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:44,400
Speaker 2: Israel in the US massively escalating the iron Warnow energy

19
00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,440
Speaker 2: infrastructure throughout the Middle East is on fire predictably, the

20
00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,120
Speaker 2: economy is tanking and oil prices are spiking.

21
00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:52,400
Speaker 4: So we'll get into all of that.

22
00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,240
Speaker 2: John Meerscheimer is joining us this morning to break down

23
00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,440
Speaker 2: his view on what is happening and where things are headed.

24
00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:03,120
Speaker 2: Tulci Gabbard to testifying yesterday pretty revealing in not a

25
00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:07,000
Speaker 2: great way. Joe Kent having just resigned, just tod a

26
00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,840
Speaker 2: bombshell interview with Tucker Carlson. We will bring you all

27
00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:14,040
Speaker 2: of the highlights of that, some absolutely earth shattering revelations,

28
00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,720
Speaker 2: so a lot to break down there, and then Professor

29
00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,360
Speaker 2: Pape is going to be back with us to explain

30
00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:23,720
Speaker 2: where we are now in the escalation trap. So truly

31
00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:24,880
Speaker 2: a massive show today.

32
00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:25,840
Speaker 1: I do get through, that's right.

33
00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,880
Speaker 3: Thank you everybody who's been supporting us at Breakingpoints dot com.

34
00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,280
Speaker 3: As of now, the current plan is that I will

35
00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:35,120
Speaker 3: be doing an interview with Joe Kent tomorrow. Obviously that's tentative,

36
00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,560
Speaker 3: and who knows, considering now that the Trump administration is

37
00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,080
Speaker 3: potentially trying to indict him, whether he's even able to

38
00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,120
Speaker 3: do that, But as I said, that's current plan, and

39
00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,480
Speaker 3: we're going to have a section on locals. We're going

40
00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,960
Speaker 3: to post some suggested questions where you can suggest some

41
00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,800
Speaker 3: if you would like, you can comment there and leave

42
00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:52,880
Speaker 3: anything that you think you would like to get from

43
00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:54,600
Speaker 3: Joe Kent, So please go ahead and do so. To

44
00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:56,520
Speaker 3: all of our Premium sbscribers, and if you want to participate,

45
00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,880
Speaker 3: in that you can Breakingpoints dot com. Thank you again

46
00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,280
Speaker 3: to everybody who's support the show at this time for

47
00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,200
Speaker 3: all of this incredible growth that you have given to us,

48
00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 3: your trust in this immense and very very difficult and

49
00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,160
Speaker 3: dark time I think for the entire world.

50
00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:10,920
Speaker 1: But yeah, of course, with that, what do we have.

51
00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,760
Speaker 2: So the US and Israel escalating massively yesterday in the

52
00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,520
Speaker 2: Iran war. We can put these images up on the screen.

53
00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:22,240
Speaker 2: They struck Israel specifically, but apparently with the US's cooperation.

54
00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:27,280
Speaker 2: Ascent struck Iran's South Pars gas field. Drop site says

55
00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,079
Speaker 2: this is the world's largest natural gas field. It is

56
00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:33,480
Speaker 2: a core pillar of Iran's energy supply. You can see

57
00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,120
Speaker 2: some of the images of the smoke rising there on

58
00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,760
Speaker 2: your screen. They go on to say the major escalation

59
00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:43,440
Speaker 2: comes alongside reported impacts on other oil and petrochemical facilities.

60
00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:48,120
Speaker 2: According to multiple reports, IRGC linked Hasnim News issued in

61
00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,040
Speaker 2: urgent warning urging people to immediately leave major oil and

62
00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,040
Speaker 2: gas sites in Saudi the UAE and Katar, saying they

63
00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,440
Speaker 2: had become direct and legitimate targets that could be struck

64
00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:02,840
Speaker 2: within hours, and then followed up on that threat, striking

65
00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,080
Speaker 2: in particular in Qatar, in Saudi.

66
00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 4: And in Kuwait.

67
00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,760
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and put the Katari images up on

68
00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:10,280
Speaker 2: the screen.

69
00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:10,600
Speaker 4: Here.

70
00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:15,560
Speaker 2: This is Qatar Energy's ros Lafon industrial city to the

71
00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,040
Speaker 2: north of Doha. This is their main site for the

72
00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,799
Speaker 2: production of LNG, which is gas to liquid, as well

73
00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:25,520
Speaker 2: as the largest export terminal for LNG in the world.

74
00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:28,720
Speaker 2: So that is a massive deal. Let's go ahead and

75
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,080
Speaker 2: put this next one up on the screen. This is

76
00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:35,680
Speaker 2: the strike in Riod that you can see here. And

77
00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,040
Speaker 2: according to drop site News, they say four injured in

78
00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,320
Speaker 2: Riod after debris from an intercepted ballistic missile fell near

79
00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,920
Speaker 2: refinery in Saudi Arabia. For foreign Asian residents were injured

80
00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,680
Speaker 2: limited material damage. But so you have, you know, strikes

81
00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:52,680
Speaker 2: here in Riod, which is pretty extraordinary. Inside of Saudi Arabia,

82
00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,839
Speaker 2: you also had some strikes inside of Kuwait. And then

83
00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,119
Speaker 2: this is the big one. Let's put this next tear

84
00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:01,520
Speaker 2: sheet up on the screen. From the eight Saudi Arabia

85
00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:05,360
Speaker 2: said a drone hit the country's sam Raf refinery in

86
00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,280
Speaker 2: the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea. And

87
00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:11,600
Speaker 2: there is a reason why I say this one is

88
00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:15,360
Speaker 2: extremely significant. You know, We've been following Rory Johnston. Oil

89
00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:18,719
Speaker 2: and gas analyst Arnold Bertrand has also been talking about

90
00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,360
Speaker 2: how significant this is as well. If you can put

91
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,719
Speaker 2: this map up on the screen, you can see so

92
00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,480
Speaker 2: on one side we have the straight Offoe moves, which

93
00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:30,000
Speaker 2: of course Ron has locked down, so that's one way

94
00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,960
Speaker 2: to ship oil out of the region. On the other

95
00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,720
Speaker 2: side you have the Red Sea where so far the

96
00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,960
Speaker 2: Houthis have not engaged, and so Saudi has been shipping

97
00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,400
Speaker 2: oil in this East West pipeline to the Red Sea

98
00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,080
Speaker 2: so that they can continue.

99
00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:48,920
Speaker 4: To export you know, some proportion of the oil there.

100
00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,480
Speaker 2: And now that area, that port and right where that

101
00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:56,720
Speaker 2: pipeline is, that has been struck as well. Last thing,

102
00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,920
Speaker 2: sider before I get your reaction here, because Rory Johnston

103
00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,440
Speaker 2: was tweeting about this, so he was warning this is

104
00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,320
Speaker 2: a really big deal when the reports were unconfirmed. Now

105
00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,080
Speaker 2: this Saudi Ministry of Defense, he says, now confirming that

106
00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,520
Speaker 2: one ballistic missiles were launched at the port of Yanbu

107
00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,680
Speaker 2: which were intercepted. A drone has fallen on an oil

108
00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,919
Speaker 2: refinery in Yanbu. Knew the lack of denial was weird,

109
00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,920
Speaker 2: not great. That Iran is turning its attention to the

110
00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:23,320
Speaker 2: Red Sea. So we don't have full information about the

111
00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,640
Speaker 2: extent of the damage, but if you're looking at cutting

112
00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:30,080
Speaker 2: off both of those pathways to export oil from the region,

113
00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,040
Speaker 2: this is an earth shattering mood.

114
00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,200
Speaker 3: Right exactly for everybody who took a look at the

115
00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,680
Speaker 3: map the Red Sea Saudi Arabia, the East West Pipeline

116
00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,440
Speaker 3: is able with that pipeline to get about seventy to

117
00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,360
Speaker 3: eighty percent of the oil the previously would go through

118
00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,560
Speaker 3: the Straits of Hormud. So seventy eighty percent, by the way,

119
00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,320
Speaker 3: is still a catastrophe for global oil supply, but seventy

120
00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,440
Speaker 3: to eighty is a lot better than zero. So the

121
00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,320
Speaker 3: striking of that refinery is a message not only are

122
00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,280
Speaker 3: we going to be able to try and target the pipeline,

123
00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,719
Speaker 3: the refineries and some of the loading to be able

124
00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,240
Speaker 3: to get all of that out. Now, don't forget this

125
00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,080
Speaker 3: was an I Range Union state action. This was not

126
00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,640
Speaker 3: yet the Huthis, who also have the ability with Yemen

127
00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:07,480
Speaker 3: to be able to try and close and choke off

128
00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,760
Speaker 3: the Red Sea, which is what would be a genuine

129
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:15,120
Speaker 3: catastrophe for oil returning to llng Roslafan is twenty percent

130
00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:19,159
Speaker 3: of global leg What's even more important about Roslafan is

131
00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,640
Speaker 3: actually the amount of LNG and gas that it provides

132
00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:27,640
Speaker 3: to Europe and to Asia. Already, European markets are panicking

133
00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,360
Speaker 3: as of this morning, twenty five percent increase in natural gas.

134
00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,160
Speaker 3: So I saw a British analyst who are predicting genuine

135
00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:37,880
Speaker 3: catastrophe for their economy. Twenty five hundred pounds they're looking

136
00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,080
Speaker 3: at in terms of their heating bills next winter if

137
00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:41,160
Speaker 3: things continue.

138
00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:42,600
Speaker 1: To go on the track that they are.

139
00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:44,799
Speaker 3: And remember they're not a rich country right Their GDP

140
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,080
Speaker 3: per capital is like thirty three thousand dollars, so that

141
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:51,440
Speaker 3: would be a disaster for the average British household. Pakistan

142
00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,599
Speaker 3: gets the vast majority of its LNG from Qatar. You're

143
00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:56,880
Speaker 3: going to see rolling blackouts in that country if you

144
00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,800
Speaker 3: continue to see this. The Roslofan facility has had quote

145
00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:04,320
Speaker 3: extensive damage according to the Katari authorities. Remember I used

146
00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:08,600
Speaker 3: to live in Doha. I drove past Rostlofan. It's shocking

147
00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,120
Speaker 3: to see the images like this because I know not

148
00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:13,400
Speaker 3: only the amount of Americans, the amount of investment that

149
00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:13,960
Speaker 3: went into that.

150
00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,400
Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking about tens of billions.

151
00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,400
Speaker 3: I think the current price tag on Roslofan was seventy billion,

152
00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,160
Speaker 3: and it went up like this in flames. Not to

153
00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,720
Speaker 3: mention that they had an evacuation. Qatar has declared declared

154
00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:29,040
Speaker 3: force majeure on a ton of its contracts out until April.

155
00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:33,680
Speaker 3: Taiwan is the number three recipient of Katari LNG Qatar. Also,

156
00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,480
Speaker 3: let's not forget that Rostofan and the facilities around it

157
00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,680
Speaker 3: produced about thirty percent of global helium supply critical to

158
00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,040
Speaker 3: chips manufacturing the Taiwanese economy.

159
00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:44,120
Speaker 1: This is earth shattering, I mean for all.

160
00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:45,960
Speaker 2: Without trying to put on a statement say hey, your

161
00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:47,480
Speaker 2: energy problems will be over if we just.

162
00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:48,880
Speaker 1: Have a this story exactly.

163
00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:51,280
Speaker 3: I also would be remiss if I didn't just talk

164
00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:54,600
Speaker 3: about the climate situation here. What do you think the

165
00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,440
Speaker 3: entire all of Asia is doing right now? Burn and

166
00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:00,720
Speaker 3: cole They're saying, okay, well we've got it. You gotta

167
00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:03,000
Speaker 3: have electricity, So what are you going to do? They

168
00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,160
Speaker 3: are going to burn more coal as a result of

169
00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,160
Speaker 3: this this energy crisis than probably at any time in

170
00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,400
Speaker 3: the last twenty years. That's what they're currently turning towards

171
00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,880
Speaker 3: and even with that, we are predicting a massive spike.

172
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,680
Speaker 3: So here in the United States we're largely insulated from this.

173
00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,480
Speaker 3: For now, we have produced a ton of our own LNG.

174
00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:22,680
Speaker 3: This is part of the reason for those who are

175
00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,480
Speaker 3: wondering why there is a discrepancy between Brent oil prices

176
00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:29,400
Speaker 3: and West Texas oil prices. So West Texas oil is

177
00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,360
Speaker 3: not yet at one hundred of barrel. Brent is currently

178
00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:33,640
Speaker 3: trading around like one hundred and fifteen dollars per barrel.

179
00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:35,960
Speaker 3: I've had to learn a little bit about the differences,

180
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,920
Speaker 3: but I don't think we can. We don't think we

181
00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:43,760
Speaker 3: can adequately explain the consequences of taking this Katari facility

182
00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:48,240
Speaker 3: and the Red Sea action together to show that genuine

183
00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:53,520
Speaker 3: oil energy catastrophe is here. It's here now. It's only

184
00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:56,440
Speaker 3: a question of can we roll any of this back,

185
00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,880
Speaker 3: And considering the initial reaction of the President of the

186
00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:05,079
Speaker 3: United States and Israeli authorities, I am not optimistic to say.

187
00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,800
Speaker 2: The least well, and that Iran matches their energy, you know,

188
00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,120
Speaker 2: and they're like, okay, you want to ask eight game

189
00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,319
Speaker 2: one where this is our whole goal is to make

190
00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 2: you suffer and bet that we can withstand more pain

191
00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,120
Speaker 2: than you can. I just want to read our nose

192
00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:22,160
Speaker 2: analysis here just to underscore the severity of what we

193
00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:25,080
Speaker 2: are waking up to this morning. He said yesterday, I

194
00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:27,120
Speaker 2: hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if

195
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,920
Speaker 2: infrastructure like this and he's talking about the Katari facility

196
00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,760
Speaker 2: specifically gets blown up as of this moment, it will

197
00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:39,000
Speaker 2: take at least a decade to recover from this war. Already,

198
00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,600
Speaker 2: he's saying, with what's already been done, it will take

199
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,600
Speaker 2: a decade to recover. And the truth is, the world's

200
00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:49,760
Speaker 2: energy picture is probably changed forever. This single facility produced

201
00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,120
Speaker 2: roughly twenty percent of global LG supply and as of

202
00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,160
Speaker 2: twenty eleven, had taken seventy billion dollars to build. What

203
00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,640
Speaker 2: makes this even worse is that Iran strike on this

204
00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,760
Speaker 2: was retaliation after Israel attack their South Pars gas field,

205
00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:06,360
Speaker 2: which draws from the same natural gas reservoir, which is

206
00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:10,520
Speaker 2: the world's largest reservoir by far. It's about the size

207
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,240
Speaker 2: of Qatar itself. Heck, on the list of the twenty

208
00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:17,679
Speaker 2: five largest natural gas fields, this single reservoir holds roughly

209
00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:21,880
Speaker 2: forty percent of their combined recoverable reserves. It is nearly

210
00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,560
Speaker 2: six times bigger than the second biggest field in the world.

211
00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:26,880
Speaker 2: Unlike many of the others on the list, it's only

212
00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,720
Speaker 2: at ten percent depletion, meaning ninety percent of the gas

213
00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,800
Speaker 2: is still there, which means that probably for many years,

214
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,200
Speaker 2: a huge share of the gas from the world's largest

215
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:39,680
Speaker 2: reservoir simply will not be extractable. As infrastructure on both

216
00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,160
Speaker 2: sides Qatars and Irons has now been blown up. From

217
00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:47,439
Speaker 2: a global energy supply perspective, we are deep into worst

218
00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:51,960
Speaker 2: case scenario. So that is from Arno to your point

219
00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:56,160
Speaker 2: about the President and the Israelis. So immediately we get

220
00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,480
Speaker 2: the Axios reports. Let's put this up on the screen

221
00:10:58,520 --> 00:10:59,360
Speaker 2: because you know.

222
00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:00,080
Speaker 4: The question is.

223
00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:03,880
Speaker 2: Was Trump down with this right? Was this just the

224
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:08,200
Speaker 2: Israelis freelancing? Was this Trump's idea? Was this Israel's idea?

225
00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,560
Speaker 2: Did they work in concert? I mean, you always have

226
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:12,960
Speaker 2: to assume they're working in concert hand and glove, but

227
00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,960
Speaker 2: in any case, that was what was given to Axios.

228
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,520
Speaker 2: Here Israel strikes around natural gas facility in coordination with

229
00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,520
Speaker 2: the US. The Israelis said, basically, yeah, we executed, but

230
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,880
Speaker 2: were sending an American message. That was their language, that

231
00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,240
Speaker 2: you have to reopen these straight of hormones or else

232
00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:32,120
Speaker 2: we are going to continue to decimate your domestic energy supply,

233
00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,160
Speaker 2: so they said explicitly. The Israeli officials who spoke to

234
00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,360
Speaker 2: Brock revealed that the strike was coordinated with and approved

235
00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:43,400
Speaker 2: by the Trump administration, and a US defense official confirmed

236
00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:47,360
Speaker 2: that as well. So then let's put a to b

237
00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:51,360
Speaker 2: up on the screen here. So now you have this

238
00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:56,120
Speaker 2: wild post from Donald Trump, which seems to be a

239
00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,880
Speaker 2: reaction to the fact of him realizing like, oh shit,

240
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,480
Speaker 2: this thing is escalating out of control and the impact

241
00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:06,920
Speaker 2: on the economy is going to be devastating. So he says, Israel,

242
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,000
Speaker 2: out of anger for what has taken place in the

243
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,440
Speaker 2: Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility

244
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,720
Speaker 2: known as South Pars gas Field in Iran. So here

245
00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,559
Speaker 2: he's shifting the blame to Israel that they lashed out.

246
00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:21,240
Speaker 2: He says, a relatively small section of the whole has

247
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 2: been hit. The US knew nothing about this particular attack,

248
00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:27,480
Speaker 2: and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape

249
00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:29,720
Speaker 2: or form involved with it, nor did it have any

250
00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:31,600
Speaker 2: idea that it was going to happen. He's talking about

251
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:33,760
Speaker 2: Quitar because Qatar was the first to get hit aid

252
00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:37,480
Speaker 2: in response. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this or any

253
00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:39,880
Speaker 2: of the pertinent facts pertaining in the South Pars attack.

254
00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:44,400
Speaker 2: An unjustifiably an unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LG

255
00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:48,600
Speaker 2: gas facility. In all caps, no more attacks will be

256
00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:52,480
Speaker 2: made by Israel pertaining to this extremely important and valuable

257
00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,959
Speaker 2: South Pars field, unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a

258
00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,800
Speaker 2: very innocent in this case Qatar, in which instance, the

259
00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,400
Speaker 2: United States of America or without the help or concent

260
00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:03,680
Speaker 2: of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the

261
00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,320
Speaker 2: South Pars gasfield at an amount of strength and power

262
00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,040
Speaker 2: that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do

263
00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,080
Speaker 2: not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction

264
00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:13,959
Speaker 2: because the long term implications that it will have in

265
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:17,720
Speaker 2: the future of Iran. But if Qatar's energy is again attacked,

266
00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,240
Speaker 2: I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for

267
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,719
Speaker 2: your attention to this matter of soccer, your thoughts on that.

268
00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,520
Speaker 3: This is the closest evidence that we have right now

269
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:29,080
Speaker 3: of a person who is genuinely spiral like this is

270
00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,640
Speaker 3: an actual crisis because the current I mean, look, somebody's

271
00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,640
Speaker 3: lying right. So the US officials who talked to Axios,

272
00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,600
Speaker 3: the Wall Street Journal and the Pentagon and everybody else

273
00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,840
Speaker 3: said that they not only knew for the strike, they

274
00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:44,720
Speaker 3: basically asked Israel to do it or were okay with

275
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,080
Speaker 3: it if they had advanced knowledge, which according to them,

276
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,920
Speaker 3: they did. It's pretty obvious why this happened, because the

277
00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,600
Speaker 3: world freaked out as a result. The Kataris were putting

278
00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:57,120
Speaker 3: out statements. Obviously at the beginning, this is the thing

279
00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,960
Speaker 3: about Qatar. They expelled those Iranian diplomats.

280
00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:00,559
Speaker 1: Do you know who?

281
00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:02,720
Speaker 3: The first person they blamed was Israel. They were like,

282
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,120
Speaker 3: Israel has unleashed this. They have struck the South bar

283
00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:06,960
Speaker 3: As gas field. We know that we're going to get

284
00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:08,640
Speaker 3: struck as a result of this, and now they have

285
00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,920
Speaker 3: brought hell upon the region, descending it all into chaos,

286
00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:16,160
Speaker 3: destroying our economy, destroying Iranian infrastructure, and showing the or

287
00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,560
Speaker 3: basically leading us farther up the escalation spiral.

288
00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 1: It's very obvious.

289
00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,400
Speaker 3: And this is what I've talked about with magical thinking,

290
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,880
Speaker 3: the way that presidents like this who are in a

291
00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:30,160
Speaker 3: bunker mentality, they are very susceptible to magical thinking of

292
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:34,960
Speaker 3: miracle strikes LBJ. This is the classic LBJ model for

293
00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:38,240
Speaker 3: anybody who's ever read any history. Sir, if we just

294
00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:42,040
Speaker 3: take out this Vietcong facility, if we just take out

295
00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,160
Speaker 3: this North Vietnamese corridor where the weapons go, then the

296
00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:46,000
Speaker 3: entire war went.

297
00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,280
Speaker 1: He goes, Okay, let's do it. Roll in thunder right,

298
00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:48,800
Speaker 1: We're gonna go.

299
00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,680
Speaker 3: We're gonna do this massive operation, and that is going

300
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:53,960
Speaker 3: to break the back of the North Vietnamese and of

301
00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,160
Speaker 3: the viet Cong, and then they'll finally surrender. And what

302
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,360
Speaker 3: ends up always happening is that deepens the existentialism on

303
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:01,560
Speaker 3: the other side. They always find a way around it,

304
00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 3: and then what happens we're deeper into the war. That's

305
00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:06,200
Speaker 3: exactly what happened with this strike.

306
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,359
Speaker 2: At least in that instance, it was our own military

307
00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,480
Speaker 2: and intelligence that was pushing I mean, according to not

308
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:14,640
Speaker 2: just Joe Kent, we'll get to that later in the show,

309
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,240
Speaker 2: but Marco Rubio and others. I mean, it is the

310
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,880
Speaker 2: Israelis who are pushing this direction. I mean, think about

311
00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:26,680
Speaker 2: how stupid, how absolutely insanely stupid this action by the Israelis.

312
00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:28,840
Speaker 2: I mean, from a US perfect from their perspective, it's

313
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:30,880
Speaker 2: great you know they want the chaos.

314
00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 4: They're down for all of it.

315
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,960
Speaker 2: But from our perspective and from a global perspective, like

316
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:36,920
Speaker 2: the you know, developing countries around the world, they're going

317
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:38,800
Speaker 2: to be the ones who are already suffering the most.

318
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 2: It's completely insane. Aron's whole thing is to make us

319
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:47,080
Speaker 2: pay economically. The economic warfare is the whole point. They're

320
00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,840
Speaker 2: not shy about. They explain it quite clearly. We need

321
00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 2: you to feel pain, We need you to understand that

322
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,440
Speaker 2: we have a choke hold on the global economy.

323
00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 4: We have a choke hold on these Gulf Arab states.

324
00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:58,240
Speaker 4: We can destroy their economy.

325
00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,040
Speaker 2: We probably already have destroyed their countries, in large part

326
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,040
Speaker 2: because nobody's going to be going back to Dubai and

327
00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,400
Speaker 2: thinking the same of it after all that has happened.

328
00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,080
Speaker 2: So you play right into their hands. Yes, it's going

329
00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 2: to hurt them that this. You know that the South

330
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:15,200
Speaker 2: pars Field was damaged. That is going to hurt run,

331
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 2: no doubt about it. Who do you think is willing

332
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:20,560
Speaker 2: to take more pain the country that is in an

333
00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:25,400
Speaker 2: existential battle for its life or Americans who don't even

334
00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,040
Speaker 2: want this war to begin with. Who do you think

335
00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,640
Speaker 2: is going to be able to accept more pain, so

336
00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:33,200
Speaker 2: you have given them the green light. Who can really

337
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 2: justifiably complain about Iran striking this oil infrastructure now throughout

338
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:41,239
Speaker 2: the region. Of course, Western countries will do so, completely

339
00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,560
Speaker 2: ignoring who started this war, completely ignoring who ignited this

340
00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:45,760
Speaker 2: round of escalation.

341
00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:47,440
Speaker 4: But everybody who is.

342
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:51,360
Speaker 2: Looking at this nos that it is completely reasonable response,

343
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 2: and it was telegraphed and in advance it was utterly,

344
00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:59,360
Speaker 2: utterly predictable. You knew that when you took this step

345
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,120
Speaker 2: up the escal ladder how they would respond. And so

346
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,000
Speaker 2: now you know, you have markets that are following, you

347
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,600
Speaker 2: have the oil price continuing to go up, and you

348
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:13,320
Speaker 2: have really opened Pandora's box. Here we have more reporting

349
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,399
Speaker 2: about you know what Trump thought about this in advance.

350
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,280
Speaker 2: Blah blah blah. You can put a three up on

351
00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,960
Speaker 2: the screen. The Wall Street Journal has similar report from

352
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,880
Speaker 2: Barack Revide saying he wants no more strikes on Iranian

353
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:27,760
Speaker 2: energy sites after Israel's Wednesday attack. But Trump did know

354
00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,159
Speaker 2: about the Israeli strike on South Pars and advance supported

355
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 2: it as a message to Tehran over its block of

356
00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz. President believes Iran got the message

357
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,280
Speaker 2: lappable and is now against attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.

358
00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 2: But Trump could once again be open to targeting more

359
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 2: Iranian energy facilities depending on Tehran's future actions in the

360
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:54,879
Speaker 2: Strategic Waterway. So yeah, so he is scrambling, is concerned

361
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,280
Speaker 2: about putting boots on the ground, but also has this

362
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 2: conundrum of the of hor moves, which are not going

363
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,400
Speaker 2: to be reopened with and without a major fight. It's

364
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 2: going to take more than you know, sending a message

365
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,199
Speaker 2: through another bombing campaign for that to go in your direction.

366
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,159
Speaker 2: Someone convinced him, oh, well, this will send him a message.

367
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,280
Speaker 2: Then they'll really buckle, Then they'll they're going to be

368
00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 2: able to negotiate with you. Then Steve Witkoff will have

369
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,359
Speaker 2: his text messages answered or whatever. And so they go

370
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 2: forward with this, and of course it only leads to

371
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 2: more escalation. Could put a six up on the screen

372
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 2: because this speaks to you know, how he's thinking about this,

373
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:35,520
Speaker 2: this conflict right now. Apparently there's a consideration of sending

374
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 2: Americans in to seize nuclear material, something we had talked

375
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,359
Speaker 2: about before. Hasn't made up his mind on that yet,

376
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 2: Whether he wants to send American forces into Iran to

377
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,000
Speaker 2: seize that nuclear material.

378
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:48,360
Speaker 4: We can also, you.

379
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,439
Speaker 2: Know, look to There is a report that there are

380
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 2: more marines, some five thousand more marines that are being

381
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 2: sent to the region as well. They're evaluating options about

382
00:18:58,160 --> 00:18:59,159
Speaker 2: you know, carg Island.

383
00:18:59,200 --> 00:18:59,879
Speaker 4: Could we seize that?

384
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 2: What can we do to be able to reopen the

385
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,640
Speaker 2: Strait of Hormus? The UK is in sending any ships,

386
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,400
Speaker 2: but they are sending some military advisors to help game

387
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 2: ount what could possibly be done here. None of these

388
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 2: are easy answers, sager whatsoever? None of these things would

389
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,200
Speaker 2: be easy to accomplish, and all of them would lead

390
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 2: to American service members being put at grave, grave risk

391
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 2: and in massive numbers.

392
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 3: A good friend of mine asked me yesterday, said what's

393
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 3: the best case scenario? And I said, the best case

394
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 3: scenario is that we leave today, which would mean several things.

395
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 3: Number One, the Iranian regime remains totally intact, with a

396
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 3: bloodlust and a desire to become North Korea. Yesterday, as in,

397
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,919
Speaker 3: we will never make a deal with the United States.

398
00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 3: We don't care about economic sanctions. If our population must

399
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 3: be a miserated, starved, and famine.

400
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:47,600
Speaker 1: So be it.

401
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 3: We will destroy or we will have the capacity to

402
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 3: establish a credible deterrent to hit the continental United States.

403
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 1: And that is all in.

404
00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 3: That's all we can possibly do to guarantee their security,

405
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 3: and there is no point in negotiating with these people.

406
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,160
Speaker 1: That's the best case scenario.

407
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 3: Because they would maybe temporarily stop and in the interim

408
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 3: some oil would flow.

409
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: Katari LNG Roslafon.

410
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 3: God only knows how much time it's going to take

411
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 3: to rebuild that facility, to get.

412
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,640
Speaker 1: The months of oil and LNG and helium and.

413
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,879
Speaker 3: Fertilizer of the backlog that's already been created back to normal.

414
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 3: What we could survive it. We could all survive it.

415
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,199
Speaker 3: We're a very rich country. We'll be able to support it.

416
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 3: The third World everybody's going to suffer as a result,

417
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 3: and of course there's all the missile stockpiles, interceptors, etc.

418
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 1: That's the best case scenario.

419
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 3: The worst case scenario, we're not even close there, but

420
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,159
Speaker 3: you can see it, and we're we're all starting to

421
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 3: see it. Katar LNG, closure of the Red Sea oil

422
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 3: at two to three hundred dollars a barrel, a broad

423
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 3: export ban here in the United States, lines for even

424
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,160
Speaker 3: and odd numbers like the Boomers had to live through

425
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 3: during the OPEC crisis.

426
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:56,640
Speaker 1: That's what that's that's.

427
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 3: Really what it's going to look like to eight dollars

428
00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:01,359
Speaker 3: a gallon, seven eight dollars Allen, ten dollars a gallon

429
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 3: in California, no missile interceptors, boots on the ground, boys

430
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 3: coming back home in coffins. And by the way, the

431
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 3: problem is is that the more of a crisis point

432
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 3: that we reach for the US economy, that means the

433
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 3: more of an extreme that the President and his team

434
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 3: will reach for. Because the amount of courage it would

435
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 3: take at this point, courage, cowards, you could call it

436
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 3: whatever you want, but I think courage to say we're done.

437
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 1: Here, we're done.

438
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 3: And yes, Trump made this of his own making, but

439
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 3: I promised you if he finally has this, I will

440
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 3: give one of those thank you, you know, the most

441
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 3: I'll go on Fox News and say this is the

442
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 3: most courageous decision and it would be true.

443
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do it. I wouldn't really mean most of it,

444
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 1: but like I would, I.

445
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 3: Would say, Joe if fluff his own ego and to

446
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 3: provide the support and all of that that they would need.

447
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 3: But that is what it would take, and we from Look,

448
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 3: we're going to.

449
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 4: Talking about it.

450
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,680
Speaker 2: Look, it would be the end of his presidency if

451
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:51,919
Speaker 2: he did that, and it is also the end of

452
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 2: his presidency if he continues exactly.

453
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,159
Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's where it is, right, might as

454
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 3: well fight this is the internal logic.

455
00:21:58,160 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: You might as well fight this.

456
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 2: Might as well Ambler at the table, I'm already down.

457
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 4: I'm in the hole.

458
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 2: You know, my you know, my house is going to

459
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: be taken. I have to put it all in the line.

460
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 2: That's the mentality that exists now. And let's say to Sager.

461
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 2: Let's say let's say that he does that. Let's say

462
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: he walks away, you know, even gives the iranis some

463
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 2: kind of concession or I will do a little sanctionus

464
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 2: reliever something right so that they stop as well. What

465
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 2: is going to stop Israel?

466
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 1: Nothing?

467
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 2: Nothing, And and you're so right, and this is something

468
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,679
Speaker 2: we've been warning about and we're not the only ones

469
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 2: that the logic for Iran.

470
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 4: Is to pursue a nuclear weapon, now, you.

471
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 2: Know, and you've taken out the guy you killed, the

472
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 2: Iotolu dishes.

473
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 4: The thought was we're not going to do this.

474
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 3: That guy oh gone, just man, that's so, can of

475
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 3: let me expound on that. So for example, everyone says, oh,

476
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 3: well they never closed it straight before.

477
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: Because of the Iyahtola. Everything you're told about the Iatola

478
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 1: was a lie. He was a cautious, doddering old man.

479
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 3: He couldn't commit fully to the nuke and he couldn't

480
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 3: commit fully to peace. He had to try and do

481
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 3: some looks, he's old, he was eighty nine, right, and

482
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 3: we all know somebody like that, they're literally doddering. Well,

483
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,919
Speaker 3: guess what he's dead now we created him in a martyr.

484
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 3: His son literally has got scars on his face and

485
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 3: is hiding in a bunker the IRGC people. We have

486
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 3: killed every you know lar Jani, we just killed him.

487
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 3: Apparently he was Look, he was an asshole. Yeah, he

488
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 3: definitely wanted to kill a lot of people. Definitely hated America.

489
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 3: Highly educated. You know, his daughter was a professor I

490
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 3: think down at.

491
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 1: Versity.

492
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 3: Okay, until but yeah, right, But my point is just

493
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 3: that's who what we That was one side of the ledger.

494
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 3: Guess what, he's dead, So who do you have left?

495
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 3: At every turn, the modern ilergy ce has said, we

496
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 3: cannot negotiate with these people in good faith and Rahani,

497
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 3: all of these people. They said, no, we can, Let's

498
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 3: avoid the war. And remember I had told it back

499
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: that decision. He said, oh, let's do diplomacy, let's do this,

500
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 3: even though they would still chant dead to America, great state,

501
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 3: and all that's over.

502
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: It's over.

503
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 3: The Kim logic, the Kim family's logic is the only

504
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,919
Speaker 3: logic in the world that makes any sense. And like

505
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 3: I said, that's the best case scenario. That's why we

506
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 3: should never have done this in the first So now

507
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:01,479
Speaker 3: the nightmare.

508
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:02,640
Speaker 4: Let's say Trump walks away.

509
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 2: Let's say he tacos, he does it, he manages to

510
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 2: extricate for the moment. Well, guess what's going to happen

511
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 2: down the road. Is girls going to come back and

512
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 2: they're going to say they're building.

513
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 4: On nuclear wabel, what are you going to do?

514
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 2: And this is you know, this is what we warned

515
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 2: about with the Twelve Day War, wherever, oh, this was

516
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 2: so great and we got in and we got down.

517
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 2: You guys were such haters and you didn't understand that,

518
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 2: you know, the glory of our president, et cetera, et cetera.

519
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 2: What did we warn and again, not just us right.

520
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 2: This was many many people who could see the riding

521
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 2: on the wall. You have now opened up Pandora's box,

522
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 2: and it is almost inevitable that we end up back

523
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 2: in a hot war with a run.

524
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 4: And that is exactly exactly where we are.

525
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 2: And now, yeah, I mean it's it's hard to see

526
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 2: how he walks away.

527
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:46,719
Speaker 4: It's hard to see how this end.

528
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 2: The off ramps are being murdered by the Israelis with

529
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,199
Speaker 2: the ascent again, I always want to put blame wore

530
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 2: belongs with the ascent of Trump.

531
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 4: It's not like he objects any of this.

532
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 2: He's happy to see, you know, these assassinations, happy to

533
00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 2: see the escalation, happy to green light it. So so

534
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 2: off ramps are literally being murdered. The Iranians have been

535
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 2: very clear, we are going to make you pay, and

536
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 2: you are going to come to us and beg for

537
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 2: mercy and you are going to accept our terms of

538
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:19,680
Speaker 2: your defeat. That has been their message. And now where

539
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 2: do we go next? I mean, very likely boots on

540
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 2: the ground. I think, you know, he's reluctant to do it,

541
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 2: but I think that's probably what's going to happen next.

542
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 2: And you're going to have a lot more dead service members,

543
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 2: God forbid. And you know we're going to continue to

544
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: have oil prices go up, the global economy crash. I mean,

545
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 2: the bottom is it is truly bottomless. How bad things

546
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 2: could ultimately get here. Let's go ahead and move on

547
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 2: to the next part because it's you know, the economic

548
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 2: damage is already showing up, and it's not like the

549
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 2: US economy was in a great spot to begin with. Guys,

550
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 2: let's put a eight up on the screen. So something

551
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,919
Speaker 2: Trump has been desperately wanting, as for the Federal Reserve

552
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 2: to cut interest rates, Well, guess what, we just had

553
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 2: a hot inflation report come in. Now you have oil

554
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 2: prices skyrocketing. That is going to not only increase prices

555
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 2: at the pump, it's going to increase all prices because

556
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 2: that is the way our economy runs on fossil fuels

557
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 2: and the reverberating effects. We got a little taste of

558
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 2: that during COVID, So it's not too hard to imagine

559
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 2: where we are headed with all of this. Not to mention,

560
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 2: and again, this is all before we even started this war.

561
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:31,439
Speaker 2: Jerome pal says, we effectively have no job creation none.

562
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to what he

563
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 2: had to say there.

564
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 5: But the thing that I think good number of people

565
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 5: in the committee are concerned about it is just a

566
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 5: very very low level of job creation. If you adjust

567
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 5: what has been the trend job creation over the past

568
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 5: let's say six months, If you adjust that for what

569
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 5: we think our staff thinks is the overstatement due to overcounting, effectively,

570
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 5: there's zero net job creation in the private sector. But

571
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,959
Speaker 5: actually that looks like that's about what the economy needs

572
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 5: in terms of dealing with very very low, non existent

573
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 5: really growth in the labor force, which of course we've

574
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 5: never had in our history. So you've got a sort

575
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 5: of a zero employment growth equilibrium. Now that's balance, okay,

576
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 5: but you know, I would say it does have a

577
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 5: feel of downside risk and it's not kind of a

578
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 5: really comfortable balance.

579
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 4: So zero net job creation in the private sector.

580
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 3: ZEROS is a literal nightmare because this is literally the

581
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 3: nineteen seven Does this.

582
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 1: Stag oil shock?

583
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is stagflation, high inflation, high unemployment, oil energy shock.

584
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 3: We lived through it. Take a look at the mortgage

585
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 3: rates continue to take up. Take a look at the

586
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 3: bond the yields. I mean, for they're climbing as of

587
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 3: this morning. And then let's talk about deficit spending. Now,

588
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 3: you know me, I'm not a deficit hawk or anything

589
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 3: like that, but I do believe in efficient allocation of resources.

590
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and put a ten up here on

591
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 3: the screen. Last story from our great friend Jeff Stein

592
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 3: for the Washington Post before he begins his new job

593
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 3: over at notice.

594
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: Look at this, guys.

595
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,399
Speaker 3: The Pentagon has now asked the White House today for

596
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 3: a more than two hundred billion dollars supplemental for the

597
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 3: Iran War. Some White House aids think Congress moment's support

598
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 3: because it is so big it will tee up a

599
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 3: giant battle in Congress. Let me remind everyone that the

600
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 3: way that they currently think they'd have to pass this

601
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 3: is through reconciliation. To do reconciliation, you have to be

602
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 3: revenue neutral. To be revenue neutral, you have to cut

603
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 3: two hundred billion. That means something two hundred billion dollars.

604
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 3: And they've already cut this thing to the bone of

605
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 3: discretionary spending of what they've been able to medicaid, snap,

606
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 3: et cetera. Well, how are you going to find two

607
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 3: hundred billion? Also for all the Doge bros who have

608
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 3: come up to me now over the last year and

609
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 3: told me that I'm being unfair to Doge, even by

610
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 3: Doge's own math, by Doge math, which is like bullshit

611
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 3: math we all know.

612
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: Which is fake dozes Doze's most maximal math.

613
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 3: How much do you think they're claiming to save? Two

614
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 3: hundred and fifteen billion, so we would net net fifteen

615
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 3: and that is if you take their entire all of

616
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 3: their claims, everything that they ever said.

617
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 1: You can go to doz doc gov right now and

618
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: you can look at it.

619
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 3: Two hundred and fifteen billion, So we would net fifteen

620
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 3: billion after you pass this. Now here's I want to

621
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 3: prepare everybody for the attack, and they're going to specifically

622
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 3: come after people like me. They're going to say, you've

623
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 3: been bitching and moaning about interceptor stockpiles. This is what

624
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 3: this bill is about, because it is the vast majority

625
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 3: of the spending would be to replace many of the

626
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 3: munitions that we've just sent. And you know what my

627
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 3: logic would be, I am with you one hundred percent.

628
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 3: Let's end the war with Iran and then we'll do that.

629
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 3: And when we do that, we will make sure that

630
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 3: there is a specific language that this will not be

631
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: used for a war of choice for regime Jay, that

632
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 3: it will be congressionally authorized, and that we will be

633
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: an established, credible defense for the United States and for

634
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 3: its allies in a war where the nation itself has

635
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 3: been bought into the war. And we agree that this

636
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 3: is a proper use of our resources. But in the interim,

637
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: we will not be gas lit that we need a

638
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 3: ton more munitions to continue the war with Iran. The

639
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 3: war in Iran is a drain on the munitions, and

640
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 3: we're definitely not going to be paying rock Lockheed and

641
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 3: raytheon top dollar, you know, beyond top dollar, because what

642
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 3: you think, they're not going to gouge the shit out

643
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 3: of you whenever they need when you need those weapons

644
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 3: the most. No, no, no, no, no, We're not playing

645
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 3: this game because this is what they did with Iraq.

646
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: We got into a quagmire.

647
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 3: By the way, you know, this is two years of spending.

648
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 3: They've been a rack at Afghanistan. I remember those numbers.

649
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 3: The total the total amount that we spent on the

650
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 3: Afghan national security courses was one hundred billion. I sat

651
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 3: here how many times I sit here and preach against Ukraine.

652
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 3: This is more than Ukraine.

653
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 4: This is not total.

654
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 1: Ukraine is one to eighty.

655
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 2: This is not funding for a little excursion, as Trump

656
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,479
Speaker 2: describes it. This is funding for a long war. So

657
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 2: you are being lied to. Not that you're surprised at

658
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 2: this point, but when Trump's oh, we already destroyed them,

659
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: we could declare victory, Dunning point.

660
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 4: In fact, we've already won. Love lies.

661
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 2: Don't listen to what they say. Look at the actions,

662
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 2: Look at the budget request two hundred billion. In to

663
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: your point about the interceptors, the Pentagon budget is already

664
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 2: a trillion dollars. Pass an audit and find some money

665
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 2: if you need to replace your minissions like this is insane.

666
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 2: Think of all the good that could be done with

667
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 2: that money. And instead we want to take this two

668
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 2: hundred billion dollars so that we can want bomb more

669
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 2: elementary schools and continue to sustain in a legal war

670
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 2: that is plunging us into deep economic crisis and potential

671
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 2: World War III.

672
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 4: That's what we're going to spend our precious tax dollars on.

673
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 2: It's absolutely sickening, and you know the talking points that

674
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 2: will come out to you got to support the troops

675
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: and if you don't, you're unpatriotic, blah blah blah.

676
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 4: So just wait.

677
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 2: But in terms of a political reckoning, can you imagine

678
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 2: anything that will be more disgusting to the American people

679
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 2: than two hundred billion dollars? And by the way, we're

680
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 2: going to pay for it, not by raising taxes on

681
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: the ridge or the you know, the contractors who are

682
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 2: war profiteering like, none of that. It's going to come

683
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 2: from your health care. It's going to be levied at

684
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: the gas pump when you pay more. That's who is

685
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: actually going to pay and suffer. These people in this

686
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 2: country who already pay and suffer the most. And those

687
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 2: are also the ones who are sent over, you know,

688
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: into the.

689
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: Meat grinder's already starting.

690
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 2: We'll put on some ship that's on fire and the toilets.

691
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 1: Don't work exactly. Let me read you a quote from

692
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 1: this morning.

693
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 3: While we're recording this, Pentagon is doing a press conference

694
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 3: sectary Hegseth. My thirteen year old son popped in my

695
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 3: office last night while I was editing these remarks. He

696
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 3: asked about the war and the families I met at Dover.

697
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 3: I looked at him and I said, they died for you, son,

698
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 3: so your generation doesn't.

699
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 1: Have to deal with a nuclear Iran.

700
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 3: You could copy and paste that out of what I

701
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 3: used to hear in two thousand and three and in

702
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 3: two thousand and four in Bush Country. We're back, we

703
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 3: are back. That's what they're going to do. You got

704
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 3: to support, to support the troops, you got to support

705
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 3: the war.

706
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 2: I also just have to say, let us not forget

707
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 2: we had a nuclear deal with Iran that they were

708
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 2: following that the first Trump administration took and tore up.

709
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 2: We had new negotiations with the Iranians where they were

710
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 2: willing to give even more concessions than they had originally

711
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 2: given in those negotiations. And guess what we did after

712
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 2: we got that offer diplomatically from them at the table,

713
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 2: we bombed them and murdered their leadership. So Pete Hagseth

714
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: can kindly shut the fuck up with your lies and

715
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:28,959
Speaker 2: your deceit.

716
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 3: And you know what's even worse is that this, you

717
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 3: know what he Elsie said today will be the largest

718
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 3: strike on Iran today and just this is the trap.

719
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 3: We're going to talk about this, yeah, with Professor Pate,

720
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 3: because he literally wrote the book on it. But it's like,

721
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 3: you know, and nobody likes I don't. People are like, oh,

722
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 3: you must be loving. This is a nightmare. This is

723
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 3: a literal nightmare. Yeah, we're a rich country, We're gonna

724
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 3: be okay. But everybody else and know, the people who

725
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 3: have to fight in this war. The Pentagon said yesterday

726
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 3: that they're considering thousands of troops to be sent to

727
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 3: the Middle East. There's already fifty thousand, there's twenty five

728
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 3: hundred on their way there. You and I could easily

729
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 3: see some kakamanie scheme about you know, oh, we got

730
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,320
Speaker 3: to seize the shoreline, and then once he sees the shoreline,

731
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 3: you got to seize the rear.

732
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: If those guys are going to be attacked.

733
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 3: I mean, do you even know the last amphibious assault

734
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 3: the United States did under fire?

735
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,479
Speaker 1: It was the Korean War.

736
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 3: It's been adjustment, Douglas MacArthur that anything like that has happened.

737
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,359
Speaker 3: Just think about it, like, that's the territory that we're

738
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 3: currently that's the territory that's currently that we're considering, and

739
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:32,800
Speaker 3: that we shouldn't even have to consider it.

740
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 1: We should just get out. Two hundred billion.

741
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 3: Also, is nothing compared to what will happen if this

742
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 3: has to continue on. We spent I don't even know

743
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 3: what six trillion in Iraq, a cuff trillion or so

744
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,280
Speaker 3: in Afghanistan. So two hundred billion, that's just the down payment,

745
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 3: not even a downpayment. It's a two percent down payment

746
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 3: on what we could be looking at in the future.

747
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 3: All right, let's get to oil. You know, it's a disaster.

748
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 3: What else can we say? Already you can start to

749
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 3: see a lot of the oil markets are really beginning

750
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 3: to wake up to what is happening. So let's start

751
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 3: first with what's happening here at home. A very viral

752
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 3: clip of a woman being interviewed who is Jonathan Allen?

753
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 3: Jonathan Allen Over at NBC News asked the three time

754
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 3: Trump voter at the pump what she thinks about him.

755
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:18,240
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

756
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 4: If you could say something to President Trumbody was going

757
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 4: to hear you right now, what would it be?

758
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 5: You're a worthless pile of sh and your voted for him?

759
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 6: How many times? Three times?

760
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:32,240
Speaker 1: That was my bad?

761
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 4: Apparently I'm an idiot.

762
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 1: So that's the sentiment. Pennsylvania is that an important state?

763
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 2: I forget I got to go back and check my

764
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 2: notes on that way.

765
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 1: Anyone, remember, Can anyone tell me about Pennsylvania? Anyone want

766
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 1: to know?

767
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 3: The price of gas today in Pennsylvania three eighty two

768
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,240
Speaker 3: a gallon. National average right now is three eighty eight.

769
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 3: It will be four dollars a gallon probably by the

770
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 3: end of the week. Diesel is around five dollars a

771
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 3: gallon right now. That's just here in the US. Again,

772
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 3: as I say, at globally Japan, many other countries farester

773
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 3: passed already four dollars a gallon. Let's continue then for

774
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 3: the price of oil. B two guys to go and

775
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 3: put that one up there on the screen of the

776
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:14,919
Speaker 3: current West Texas crude oil price is about ninety five

777
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 3: dollars per barrel, and then the Brent oil price is

778
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 3: about one hundred and six dollars a barrel as of

779
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 3: this morning. It's actually down a little bit from where

780
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,879
Speaker 3: it was jumping I think to an eleven year high.

781
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 3: Is what somebody was saying here in some of the

782
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:33,280
Speaker 3: oil analysis. But what we were watching is basically happen

783
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 3: is that oil swored past one hundred and ten dollars

784
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 3: has come down.

785
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: A little bit. This is the Brent oil price.

786
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 3: Then the West Texas one, you know, continues to hover

787
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,479
Speaker 3: right around one hundred dollars per barrel. What is also

788
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 3: happening is that gas prices, European gas prices this morning

789
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 3: went up to at least twenty five to thirty percent

790
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 3: in their spike. So that will be a disaster for

791
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 3: a lot of the European economies. And this is just

792
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 3: the beginning because remember they were very reliant on Russian gas.

793
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 3: Now they're actually trying to buy Russian gas as a result,

794
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 3: you know, through a pipeline. Then most of what they

795
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 3: did is they booked long term contracts with Qatar. Now

796
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 3: the entire Katari facility is offline. God only knows how

797
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 3: long you know that's going to continue in the extensive

798
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 3: damage that's been suffered. Then you combine what we talked

799
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 3: about earlier with the potential strikes in the Red Sea,

800
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 3: and then I also think, you know, we have to

801
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 3: really figure here on the notion of like global energy

802
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 3: markets itself, because we're all we're about two weeks from

803
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 3: export banded conversation and I've been you know, looking into

804
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 3: the Biden administration floated it and a lot of Americans

805
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 3: may fairly say, hey, we are a net export of oil,

806
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 3: why don't we just not export it? Why don't we

807
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 3: just keep it all here? From what I have learned

808
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 3: reading and talking to a lot of the oil experts,

809
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,879
Speaker 3: even though I would theoretically support and idea like that,

810
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 3: you basically don't want to do it because of refinery capacity.

811
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 3: So what I've learned is that the oil market, because

812
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 3: it was set up to be truly global, is that

813
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 3: even though the United States is a net exporter of oil,

814
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 3: we are not fully capable of refining all of.

815
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 1: The oil that we produce.

816
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,720
Speaker 3: Various different refineries and various different parts of the region

817
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 3: are set up for very specific types of oil, and

818
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,280
Speaker 3: redoing that would take a long time.

819
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 1: It would be incredibly difficult.

820
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 3: It would basically break the oil market as we know it.

821
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 3: You don't really want to do it unless you are

822
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 3: in a World War two like catastrophic total war type

823
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 3: of situation. To do it would basically destroy a current

824
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 3: global commodities market. It would undermine US oil companies, not

825
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 3: that I care that much about US oil companies, but

826
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 3: more importantly, it would put immense strain. You would effectively

827
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 3: have to nationalize the oil industry at that point with

828
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 3: an export band, try and get some private partnership, and

829
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 3: in the interim, the prices would just go sky high

830
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 3: because of refinery capacity, could have total shortages.

831
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 1: I think we're not that far away from an oil exports.

832
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 2: Especially in the short term, doesn't really solve the problem

833
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 2: because the refineries here are already pretty much maxed out

834
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 2: with regard to domestic crude. Our allies would be totally

835
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 2: fucked throughout the world Europe, Asia, etc. So, you know,

836
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 2: in terms of their appetite to right now, it's not

837
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 2: like they're like super excited about this war. But they're

838
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 2: not overtly like you have to stop this, and we're

839
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: you know, and doing whatever they can to get us

840
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 2: to stop. If we did an export band, then you

841
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 2: would very quickly get to that place because they would

842
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 2: be so screwed domestically. Like I said, it doesn't really

843
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,440
Speaker 2: solve the problem because you don't have the refinery capacity,

844
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: so prices will continue to go up here in terms

845
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 2: of our domestic oil production.

846
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 4: You know, Trump, he tried was.

847
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 2: Trying to say drill, baby, drill the other day and

848
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 2: since study said dig we must, but anyway, dig we must.

849
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 4: Is his policy.

850
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 2: Well, how motivated do you think oil companies are going

851
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 2: to be to dig when they have this massive constraint

852
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 2: on their ability to export this oil capacity? So they're

853
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 2: going to cut back on their you know, their drilling

854
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 2: and their you know, their extraction activities. So yeah, then

855
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 2: I guess the next move is you nationalize them. Okay,

856
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 2: I'd be okay with that, but so that you you know,

857
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 2: you get to force them and compel them. But I mean,

858
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 2: we're just in we're in wild territory there. And then

859
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,879
Speaker 2: again to the core point, it creates a whole bunch

860
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 2: of problems in the world and does not really solve

861
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 2: the problem here. But I think you're right that we

862
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 2: I'm sure those conversations are already happening in the White House,

863
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 2: There's no doubt about it. And Trump has already taken

864
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 2: some actions recognizing, you know what a big problem this

865
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 2: is for him. We can put before up on the screen.

866
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:46,320
Speaker 2: So he's issuing some waivers for the the Jones Act.

867
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 2: This is a little bit esoteric. We've talked about it

868
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 2: here before, but basically, the idea of the Jones Act

869
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 2: is you have to use US ships in order to

870
00:40:56,640 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 2: you know, in order to uh exactly, yeah, entr US transit,

871
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 2: and so this was meant to bolster the US shipbuilding

872
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,359
Speaker 2: domestic shipbuilding capacity. It hasn't really worked, but it still

873
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: has a lot of supporters in Congress, and it is

874
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 2: the way things are set up. So they are issuing

875
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 2: these waivers specifically for they say, vital research like oil,

876
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 2: natural gas, fertilizer, and coal to flow freely to US

877
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 2: sports for sixty days. Again, the analysis I saw soccer

878
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 2: is this is probably not going to make that much

879
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 2: of a difference because we just don't even have that

880
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 2: many of these you know, US ships that could you know,

881
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 2: could do this.

882
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 3: Work and foreign flag It's complicated, but basically, look, the

883
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 3: Jones Act is one of those wonk things that people

884
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 3: like Ezra Cline and them involved and obsessed with for

885
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 3: like ten years, and.

886
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 1: I sympathize, I actually do get it.

887
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 3: It's one of the only areas of protectionism where it's like, yeah,

888
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 3: thosen't really.

889
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 2: Well, it hasn't really worked, just because our shipbuilding is

890
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 2: so much more expensive than like, you know, China.

891
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 3: Really screws over California and Hawaii. Hawaii especially they get

892
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 3: destroyed by the Jones Act. But the point beyond like above,

893
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 3: is where our grassmen is strung. You want to know

894
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 3: what the Secretary of the Treasury said just this morning.

895
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 3: They are floating lifting sanctions on Iranian oil that is

896
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 3: currently at sea, just to pump more oil into the system.

897
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:14,320
Speaker 3: So the imagine, imagine you're at war with Nazi Germany,

898
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 3: all right, the Nazis had a lot of oil. The

899
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 3: Nazis have oil and sea. You're so worried about energy prices.

900
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 3: You're like, you know what we're gonna do. We're gonna

901
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 3: let who's in neutral country, Switzerland something like that. We're

902
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 3: gonna let say Switzerland go ahead and just buy.

903
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 1: Then.

904
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 3: That is how screwed the oil market is. That's how

905
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 3: bad things are also for the Kremlin. Just so everybody understands,

906
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 3: the I think India yesterday just purchased like thirty million

907
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 3: dollars thirty million barrels of oil from Russia which was

908
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 3: all just floating at sea. They are floating more oil

909
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 3: sanctions relief. The Kremlin is rubbing their hands together like

910
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 3: that they haven't made this much money in years. You

911
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,360
Speaker 3: already have the geopolitical situation on the continent, changing the

912
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 3: Belgian Prime Minister being like, listen, maybe we just got

913
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 3: our normalized relations with Russia.

914
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 1: I don't really see a way around it.

915
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 3: So, you know, for all the neocons who cared so

916
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:02,839
Speaker 3: much about you, congratulations, you just bought the Russians five

917
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 3: six more years on the front to be able to

918
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 3: pay all the people who are currently fighting.

919
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 1: That's kind of a disaster.

920
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 3: Allegedly, we also should not rule out the immense variance

921
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,399
Speaker 3: that's happening in the oil market. So for example, let's

922
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 3: put B five up here on the screen. This was

923
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 3: a very this is this is one of these analysts

924
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 3: who I follow.

925
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 1: He said.

926
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 3: The current spot price for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel

927
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 3: on the West Coast appear unhinged at one hundred and

928
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 3: forty seven dollars a barrel, one hundred and sixty two

929
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 3: dollars a barrel, and one hundred and eighty six dollars

930
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 3: a barrel, until one considers that refiners in China, India, Japan,

931
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 3: and South Korea face physical crude costs the top one

932
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one hundred and fifty five.

933
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: Basically, what a.

934
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 3: Lot of these oil traders have been talking about is

935
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 3: about the actual physical price and then the future price,

936
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:53,279
Speaker 3: which is what we're all looking at right with the

937
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 3: crude oil futures, et cetera. So if the physical price

938
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,240
Speaker 3: is now currently trading at one hundred and fifty dollars

939
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 3: per barrel, the expectation is that without any change, is

940
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 3: that the current is that the future price will catch

941
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 3: up with what the actual physical price is trading at.

942
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 3: And again, just to put things in perspective, one hundred

943
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:13,280
Speaker 3: and fifty a barrel, I mean it's roughly five fifty

944
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 3: six dollars a gallon nationally something like that. You know,

945
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:20,240
Speaker 3: depending on where you live. That's a catastrophic. The highest

946
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 3: price reached under Biden was five h five and that

947
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 3: was a nightmare. I mean, I know you remember that

948
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 3: as well. Consumers were getting nuked by that one. And

949
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 3: the Biden administration they tried everything, what did they say,

950
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:33,240
Speaker 3: Putin's price hike.

951
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 2: Well, and they also tried we had like more in

952
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 2: the strategic patrol in the reserve at that point too,

953
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 2: we had room to wiggle, you know, wiggle.

954
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 1: Rooms and SPR release.

955
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 3: I think after that we've already done the SPR release

956
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:45,839
Speaker 3: and that's you know, so the market is taking that

957
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:49,360
Speaker 3: into consideration. I just I think everybody really should prepare

958
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:53,719
Speaker 3: for for future, like especially if these attacks continue, which

959
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:57,319
Speaker 3: we should take the secretary at his word, today will

960
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 3: be the biggest day of strikes.

961
00:44:58,560 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 1: He basically says that every day.

962
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 6: I don't know.

963
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 3: But if he said today will be the biggest day

964
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 3: of strikes on iron, let's take the man at his word.

965
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,280
Speaker 3: What does that mean? What are you striking in conjunction

966
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 3: with the Israelis? Maybe they learn their lesson not to

967
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 3: hit the gas or the South Paris gas field. Are

968
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 3: you going to hit other oil refineries or do we

969
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:18,839
Speaker 3: have any real expectation these railies are going to fight

970
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 3: that way? I mean, we are in a genuine crunch,

971
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:23,919
Speaker 3: and I think global the goal.

972
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: If we have a global.

973
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:28,760
Speaker 3: Depression, it will begin in Asia because they are so

974
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 3: so heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil and on Middle

975
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 3: Eastern gas.

976
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 1: The Chinese are going to be okay.

977
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 3: They have an immense amount of capacity of strategic reserve.

978
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 1: They've planned for things like this.

979
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:42,839
Speaker 4: They have their own domestic have their.

980
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: Own domestic capacity, They have soul.

981
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 3: They have, by the way, no compunction about burning as

982
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 3: much coal or any of that.

983
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 1: If that they need to.

984
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 3: They will be fine and they will start to think

985
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 3: about it. The countries that will really suffer who also

986
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 3: will be fair to them. They have their own reserves

987
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 3: and they plan for this, but they're more reliant on

988
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:00,479
Speaker 3: US Japan and South Korea. South Korea is a number

989
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 3: two buyer of Katari LNG. The Japanese Prime Minister, she's

990
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:08,320
Speaker 3: here in Washington today, her entire meeting. Their whole meeting

991
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,760
Speaker 3: with them, which was planned months in advance, was only

992
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 3: supposed to be about trade and our trade agreement and

993
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 3: what that was all going to look like. The whole

994
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 3: thing is now about Iran and Trump berating her for

995
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 3: being not sending their limited navy to the Straits of

996
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 3: horror moves. I mean, their economy is seriously is very precarious.

997
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 3: They've only got two hundred days or so of oil

998
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 3: that's in their strategic reserve.

999
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 1: They're going to have to be buying an immense price.

1000
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,720
Speaker 3: I checked yesterday the front page of the Yomiri Shudn't

1001
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 3: Boon and it was like four fifteen or something a

1002
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:41,760
Speaker 3: gallon and leader price. It's a major it's the biggest

1003
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 3: story in Japan that's happening right now. So like and

1004
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 3: that's our number three trading partner. Like this is these

1005
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 3: are the most important allies in the world, Japan and

1006
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 3: South Korea.

1007
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 2: Hegseth said that the European should be telling us thank

1008
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 2: you this morning. I'm sure they're feeling really grateful for

1009
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 2: the fact that we've completely once again destabilized their countries

1010
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 2: and upended their economies. One more update on mister Hagsatz

1011
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 2: and his briefing this morning. So we were talking earlier

1012
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 2: about how Jeff Stein reported the request to Congress was

1013
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:13,280
Speaker 2: likely to be two hundred billion dollars. Well, he says

1014
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 2: that's actually the that's like the low end. He says,

1015
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 2: we're going back to Congress and our folks that'd ensure

1016
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 2: we're properly funded. Quote, it takes money to kill bad guys.

1017
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 2: And he said that that war funding request quote could move,

1018
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:30,479
Speaker 2: meaning it's it's not moving down, guys, it's only moving

1019
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 2: in one direction.

1020
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 4: So two hundred.

1021
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 2: Billion dollars, I guess is the optimistic estimate of what

1022
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:37,880
Speaker 2: they're going to be asking Congress for. I mean, this

1023
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 2: is just this is just a what else can you say?

1024
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 2: It's an utter catastrophe.

1025
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 1: You have two hundred Bill.

1026
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 3: I mean, this is this is how it starts, this

1027
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 3: is why you don't get into these situations in.

1028
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 1: The first place. And the logic of it all.

1029
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:52,720
Speaker 3: It's so I'm so excited to talk to not excited,

1030
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,439
Speaker 3: but in a way depressed to talk to Professor Piate

1031
00:47:55,480 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 3: because his framework and logic and steps, it all makes sense.

1032
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:04,400
Speaker 3: And once you can put that framework and evaluate events

1033
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:07,919
Speaker 3: through that, you're going to see exactly where things are going.

1034
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 3: And that's why, oh panic in catastrophe. I remember so

1035
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 3: Rory had a tweet on I think maybe day three

1036
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:17,919
Speaker 3: four and he said Oil is going to two hundred

1037
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:20,400
Speaker 3: dollars a barrel if the straits of horn Moves are closed,

1038
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:23,759
Speaker 3: and you know, people ridiculed him, They ridiculed me and

1039
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 3: us whenever we had him here on the show. I

1040
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:27,839
Speaker 3: actually got multiple messages because Oil dropped a little bit

1041
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 3: after that, and I said, did you not read it?

1042
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 3: He said, if it remains closed for a prolonged period,

1043
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 3: He's right, look at where things are currently trending. He

1044
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 3: was totally vindicated on what that happened. So the initial

1045
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 3: expectations of every single one of these people that were saying, listen,

1046
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 3: this goes on more than three weeks. We're here now,

1047
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 3: what is it, day nineteen, It's day nineteen the war.

1048
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 3: We got two more days and we're at three weeks.

1049
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 3: Nobody thinks that this is going to end. All of

1050
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 3: those initial weeks conversations. They were correct, and that was

1051
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 3: with the best case that they were laying out. We

1052
00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 3: already know that we're not in the best case scenario rendering.

1053
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 3: There's no evidence whatsoever. Yesterday the Iranians actually fired more

1054
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:07,360
Speaker 3: missiles than they have in a long time, in like

1055
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 3: two or three weeks.

1056
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 2: And the penetration rate appears to be penetration hire well,

1057
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 2: because they're running out.

1058
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,720
Speaker 1: The sympto interceptors are running out.

1059
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 3: Oh shocking, we're getting I mean the Raslafon gas field.

1060
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: Does nobody think about this Qatar?

1061
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:23,440
Speaker 3: There's ten thousand US troops station of that base at

1062
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 3: the Aladid Air Force Base. We're supposed to have a

1063
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 3: ton of air defense. Nobody thought that this was going

1064
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 3: to be a target. You can't shoot it down.

1065
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 1: What happened.

1066
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a seriously serious, a serious problem which apparently

1067
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 3: nobody's even talking about. We weren't even able to shoot

1068
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 3: it down. What a nightmare?

1069
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,399
Speaker 2: Not to mention one of our carriers having a limp

1070
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 2: back to create for repairs because of the fire, which

1071
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 2: they're also investigating whether crew members actually set that fire

1072
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,239
Speaker 2: because they were so desperate to get off of the ship.

1073
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, you didn't see that.

1074
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's one possibility, and other possibilities were

1075
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 2: being lied to about the source of fire. In any case,

1076
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 2: whatever actually happened there, you know, it's being removed from

1077
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 2: the region because has to go and undergo repairs. You know,

1078
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 2: the other carrier thats in the region, you know, they

1079
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 2: have to stay a good distance away because they are

1080
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:11,760
Speaker 2: worried about Iranian's Iranian attacks and being able to actually

1081
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 2: strike them. So in any case, the landscape is pretty

1082
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 2: dire here. And none of this was difficult to anticipate.

1083
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 2: None of it was difficult to anticipate at all. But

1084
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 2: you know, you had a president who decided that you know,

1085
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 2: he was he knew better and just chose who he

1086
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:30,720
Speaker 2: wanted to listen to. He decided he liked the line,

1087
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 2: he liked the lies that the Israelis were giving him,

1088
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 2: and effectively continues to follow their lead based on what

1089
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 2: we're saying in the battlefield.

1090
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go. All right, we've have Professor John

1091
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:41,359
Speaker 1: Meihersheimer standing by. Let's get to it.

1092
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 3: Joining us now is Professor John Meihersheimer, the University of Chicago,

1093
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 3: great friend of the show. We're honored always to speak

1094
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 3: to him. Thank you very much for joining.

1095
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:52,959
Speaker 6: Us, sir, my pleasure to be here.

1096
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 3: So, professor, we haven't been able to speak with you

1097
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 3: since the outbreak of the conflict. We have been reading

1098
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 3: quite a bit and looking at realist scholars. First, we've

1099
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 3: seen this piece from Foreign Affairs. Let's put this up

1100
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 3: here on the screen. Curious for your reaction. He says,

1101
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:12,440
Speaker 3: how America's war on Iran backfired and Tehran will now

1102
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:16,959
Speaker 3: set the terms for peace. Your general reaction not only

1103
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 3: to the war as where we are stand now, but

1104
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 3: how if any way that this actual conflict could come

1105
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 3: to a close.

1106
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 6: Well, I think that starting this war was a colossal mistake.

1107
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 6: And it's hard to believe that President Trump did this,

1108
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 6: not simply because he had promised that he would not

1109
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,359
Speaker 6: start any more wars and certainly not get us into

1110
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 6: a forever war. But if you're going to go to war,

1111
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 6: this is the last war that you want to start,

1112
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 6: and the reason is that the Iranians hold most of

1113
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 6: the cards. If you think about where we are today

1114
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:57,399
Speaker 6: and you think more importantly about further marching up the

1115
00:51:57,520 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 6: escalation ladder can do enormous damage to the international economy,

1116
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:07,120
Speaker 6: and there's nothing much we can do to prevent that.

1117
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:11,319
Speaker 6: So we're in a precarious situation right now, and I

1118
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 6: would argue we don't have an exit ram, but as

1119
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,240
Speaker 6: we move forward, things only get worse.

1120
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 2: We've been talking a lot this morning on the Israelian

1121
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 2: US attacks on the South Pars gas field in Iran

1122
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 2: and then Iranian retaliation both in Saudi and Kuwait and

1123
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 2: in Qatar. What do you make of the significance of

1124
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 2: these developments in this escalation.

1125
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 6: I think it's hugely significant. And I think the fact

1126
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 6: that President Trump issued this post where he made it

1127
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:46,799
Speaker 6: clear how angry he was at the Israelis for doing this,

1128
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 6: is evidence of that. Look, President Trump is doing everything

1129
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 6: he can to keep oil prices under one hundred dollars

1130
00:52:55,480 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 6: at barrel, and that is not easy to do. And

1131
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 6: I would note that he has taken sanctions off Russian

1132
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 6: oil and he has allowed Iran to sell its oil.

1133
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:13,319
Speaker 6: It's very important to understand that Iran is selling its

1134
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:17,360
Speaker 6: oil on world markets. Iran has been allowed to send

1135
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:20,360
Speaker 6: oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and the reason that

1136
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 6: Trump is allowing this is because he wants all the

1137
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 6: oil he can possibly get in the world oil markets.

1138
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:33,359
Speaker 6: And he's been quite successful at least at keeping the

1139
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 6: price of a barrel down under slightly less than one

1140
00:53:38,360 --> 00:53:43,279
Speaker 6: hundred dollars. Well, what happened yesterday when the Israelis hit

1141
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 6: this natural gas field in Iran and then the Iranians

1142
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:55,280
Speaker 6: retaliated first against Cutter and now apparently they're attacking Saudi

1143
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 6: Arabian sites as well. Is that the price of a

1144
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 6: barrel of oil is going I saw it was up

1145
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:05,040
Speaker 6: around one hundred and fifteen dollars this morning. This is

1146
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:08,680
Speaker 6: disastrous for the United States and for the world economy.

1147
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:12,480
Speaker 6: And if things continue to escalate, which is a real possibility,

1148
00:54:13,960 --> 00:54:18,360
Speaker 6: the economic situation will only get worse. So what happened

1149
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 6: yesterday really mattered, and that again is why President Trump

1150
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:24,920
Speaker 6: made it clear to the Israelies don't ever do this again.

1151
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:28,240
Speaker 3: Well, professor, what do you think the best and worst

1152
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:29,719
Speaker 3: case scenarios are at this point?

1153
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:30,560
Speaker 1: Start with the best.

1154
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 6: The best case is that we work out some sort

1155
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 6: of negotiated settlement. But I don't see how you can

1156
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 6: do that. The fact is that to get Iran to

1157
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:45,400
Speaker 6: stop the war, you have to make major concessions to

1158
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 6: the Iranians, and I find it hard to imagine the

1159
00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 6: United States and Israel making the sort of concessions that

1160
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:57,560
Speaker 6: are necessary to get Iran to stop. So I see

1161
00:54:57,600 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 6: the war going on. In the worst case scenario is

1162
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 6: that you continue to march up the escalation ladder, and

1163
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 6: the consequences for the international economy are devastating. And you know,

1164
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:12,160
Speaker 6: we were just talking about oil, but it's not only oil.

1165
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 6: One third of the world's fertilizer comes through the strait

1166
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 6: of Hormuze, and it's quite clear that what's happening is

1167
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 6: that without fertilizer, farmers all around the world, including in

1168
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 6: the United States, are beginning to have major problems planting

1169
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:35,240
Speaker 6: and harvesting food. And what this means for the future

1170
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:37,359
Speaker 6: is that the price of food is going to go up.

1171
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 6: So not only is the price of gas going to

1172
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:41,120
Speaker 6: go up and the price of oil going to go up,

1173
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 6: but the price of food is going to go up,

1174
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:46,399
Speaker 6: and this is going to create major League inflation, which

1175
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:48,799
Speaker 6: is going to slow down growth and result in the

1176
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 6: deaths of many people all around the world. So the

1177
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 6: potential for disaster here is just not to be underestimated.

1178
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:57,040
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1179
00:55:57,080 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 2: Well, and to your point about the unlikelihood of negotiated settlement,

1180
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:04,400
Speaker 2: not only do you have the Iranians that are like, no,

1181
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 2: you haven't experienced enough paid yet, so we would demand

1182
00:56:07,680 --> 00:56:10,319
Speaker 2: significant concessions in order to come to the table. At

1183
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 2: this point, they don't seem interested in talking right.

1184
00:56:12,120 --> 00:56:13,239
Speaker 4: Now at all.

1185
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 2: You also have the Israelis that want the thing to

1186
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 2: keep going. I wanted to get your reaction specifically to

1187
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:21,920
Speaker 2: the assassination of Ali Larjani. There's been a lot of

1188
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 2: speculation that the Israelis are effectively trying to make sure

1189
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: that any potential off ramps are taken off the table,

1190
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 2: that anyone who could have been an interlocutor, could have

1191
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 2: been a negotiator, is assassinated, so they are no longer available.

1192
00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:37,439
Speaker 2: That you have more hardliners who are in place within

1193
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 2: the Iranian government, I wonder if that's your assessment as well.

1194
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 6: It certainly looks like that. I mean, anybody who is

1195
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:48,400
Speaker 6: moderate inside of the Israeli government.

1196
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 4: Is taken out, but the Iranian government excuse me.

1197
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 6: The Iranian government is taken out. But I think it's

1198
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 6: quite clear that more generally, the Israelis have this theory

1199
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:03,720
Speaker 6: that if they can decapitate the regime, that's a quick

1200
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 6: way to victory, and this is a fallacious strategy. It

1201
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 6: just doesn't work. So the idea that they can kill

1202
00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:14,360
Speaker 6: Iranian leaders and that's going to bring the war to

1203
00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 6: an end is not a smart idea. And again, I

1204
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:21,320
Speaker 6: think you're right that what the Israelis are trying to

1205
00:57:21,360 --> 00:57:26,280
Speaker 6: do also is take out the moderates and see them

1206
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:30,320
Speaker 6: replaced by more hardliners, making it more difficult to get

1207
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:33,400
Speaker 6: a negotiated settlement. But I would argue Crystal that no

1208
00:57:33,480 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 6: matter who's in charge in Iran, it's hard to see

1209
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 6: how you get a deal. And the reason is that

1210
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 6: we would have to make major league concessions to the

1211
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 6: Iranians to put an end to this war, and that

1212
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:50,560
Speaker 6: would involve things like ending sanctions, or taking at least

1213
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 6: most of the sanctions off the table, maybe paying reparitions,

1214
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 6: and also just working out a deal where Iran is

1215
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 6: guaranteed that it won't be attacked in another six months.

1216
00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 6: You want to remember that there was a war in

1217
00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 6: June where Israel in the United States attacked Iran, and

1218
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 6: here we are not even a year later, and we're

1219
00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:17,080
Speaker 6: back at it. The Iranians want this to be the

1220
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 6: last attacked by is Real in the United States, so

1221
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:23,040
Speaker 6: we'd have to give them some sort of guarantees. I

1222
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:26,000
Speaker 6: find it hard to imagine the United States and is

1223
00:58:26,080 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 6: Real doing that.

1224
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:30,000
Speaker 3: Right, you know, Professor, what do you also make now

1225
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:33,360
Speaker 3: of US alliances? And so I've been talking at nauseum

1226
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 3: here on the show about the punishment that we're giving

1227
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 3: to the Japanese, the South Korean, the Taiwanese economies, about

1228
00:58:39,480 --> 00:58:44,560
Speaker 3: the GCC nations which are projected to contract fourteen fifteen percent.

1229
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:45,280
Speaker 6: Qatar.

1230
00:58:45,400 --> 00:58:48,520
Speaker 3: Now, I mean, there's literal lifeblood is natural gas. Who

1231
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:52,000
Speaker 3: knows how long it will take to rebuild their own facilities.

1232
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 3: Even if the war were to end today, and we

1233
00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:59,280
Speaker 3: magically gave them sanctions, relief and somehow miraculously convinced them

1234
00:58:59,360 --> 00:59:01,439
Speaker 3: not to pursue nuclear weapon, which I think they would

1235
00:59:01,520 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 3: probably want to do at this point. Let's say all

1236
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:07,800
Speaker 3: of that happened, if everything ends today, what are the

1237
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:12,040
Speaker 3: state and strategic logic of actual US alliances which are

1238
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:13,720
Speaker 3: far more important to the US than Israel.

1239
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 1: After this war, well.

1240
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 6: We've done significant damages to our allies around the world.

1241
00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:22,360
Speaker 6: There's just no question about that. If you look at

1242
00:59:22,400 --> 00:59:27,040
Speaker 6: what's happening in Japan and in India and in South Korea,

1243
00:59:28,440 --> 00:59:31,480
Speaker 6: this is disastrous. And the same thing is true with

1244
00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:33,840
Speaker 6: regard to Europe. By the way, there have been all

1245
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:39,080
Speaker 6: sorts of reports that instability is returning to Iraq, that

1246
00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:45,280
Speaker 6: the Iran war is spilling over into Iraq. We could

1247
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 6: go on and on. I mean, the negative consequences of

1248
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:52,760
Speaker 6: this war are extensive, and the fact is we're not

1249
00:59:52,840 --> 00:59:57,439
Speaker 6: going to get a negotiated settlement anytime soon. This war

1250
00:59:57,520 --> 00:59:59,919
Speaker 6: is going to go on, and the Iranians, of course,

1251
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:03,440
Speaker 6: have a vested interest in keeping it going until the

1252
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:07,280
Speaker 6: United States is willing to make the concessions that they demand.

1253
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:10,640
Speaker 4: Let's go and put see four up on the screen here.

1254
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:14,680
Speaker 2: Israel has also used this as an opportunity to it appears,

1255
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 2: annex additional territory in Lebanon, certainly to attack within Lebanon.

1256
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 2: Here they are, you know, downing a complete apartment building

1257
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:28,360
Speaker 2: in central bea route they you know, are just also

1258
01:00:28,480 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 2: warning residents, saying that they want to remove them permanently

1259
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 2: from portions of south Lebanon. Here's another image of the

1260
01:00:35,400 --> 01:00:38,880
Speaker 2: apartment building being destroyed and demolished in the middle of

1261
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 2: a major city here. So, can you talk to us

1262
01:00:41,760 --> 01:00:44,800
Speaker 2: about some of Israel's larger goals and what they're up to,

1263
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:47,680
Speaker 2: not only in Lebanon and West Bank in Gaza, and

1264
01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:48,920
Speaker 2: what the project is.

1265
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:53,360
Speaker 6: Well, the Israelis, I think have two goals in Lebanon,

1266
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 6: one which is to permanently defang has Belah, and then two,

1267
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:01,440
Speaker 6: I think they want to control all of the territory

1268
01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 6: in southern Lebanon up to the Latani River. Before this

1269
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:10,080
Speaker 6: war started on February twenty eighth, the conventional wisdom in

1270
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 6: the West was that Hesballah had been defanged and was

1271
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:18,160
Speaker 6: no longer a serious threat to Israel. Well, we've been

1272
01:01:18,200 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 6: watching hes lobb missiles into northern Israel, lob rockets into

1273
01:01:24,920 --> 01:01:28,760
Speaker 6: northern Israel, and all the evidence is that Hesblah is

1274
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:31,880
Speaker 6: very much alive. I would also note to you that

1275
01:01:31,960 --> 01:01:36,560
Speaker 6: the Iranians are coordinating with Hesbelah according to all the

1276
01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:41,920
Speaker 6: reports I've seen, and the Iranians are lobbying missiles into

1277
01:01:42,080 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 6: northern Israel where hes Blah is firing away. So in

1278
01:01:47,560 --> 01:01:53,880
Speaker 6: northern Israel, the Israeli citizenry is getting bombed quite regularly,

1279
01:01:54,200 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 6: which is disastrous for Israel. Furthermore, with regard to invading

1280
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 6: southern Lebanon and going up to the Latani River, if

1281
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:07,080
Speaker 6: you look at the number of Hesbelah forces in that region,

1282
01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:10,240
Speaker 6: you look at the terrain, I think it's extremely unlikely

1283
01:02:10,480 --> 01:02:13,160
Speaker 6: that the Israelis are going to be successful. And again

1284
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:16,320
Speaker 6: I've been reading reports that the Israelis are losing lots

1285
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 6: of mirkava tanks as you would expect in their attempts

1286
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:24,440
Speaker 6: to conquer war territory in southern Lebanon. So from an

1287
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 6: Israeli point of view, what's happening visa Villa Hezbollah in

1288
01:02:28,320 --> 01:02:32,320
Speaker 6: Lebanon is not good news. They are not doing well.

1289
01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:35,480
Speaker 6: So they're not doing well against Iran and they're not

1290
01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 6: doing well against Lebanon.

1291
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 1: Then why why do they continue to do this?

1292
01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 3: Mentaignaho is bragged about becoming a quote global superpower.

1293
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:45,880
Speaker 1: I believe you said that in Hebrew.

1294
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:50,160
Speaker 3: Is that really just about fulfilling his ambition to destroy

1295
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 3: any potential regional threat, even at the cost of becoming

1296
01:02:54,760 --> 01:02:57,920
Speaker 3: a global pariah and co opting the United States of America,

1297
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:01,240
Speaker 3: which itself may abandon it sometime in the future. Why

1298
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:04,600
Speaker 3: would they continue to expand this much blood and treasure

1299
01:03:05,160 --> 01:03:07,040
Speaker 3: if it's really not in their interest or is it?

1300
01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:11,640
Speaker 6: Well, I'd make two points. One is the Israelis are

1301
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 6: addicted to war. The Israelis believe in a very profound way,

1302
01:03:18,240 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 6: in big stick diplomacy. They believe that they can pound

1303
01:03:21,760 --> 01:03:25,920
Speaker 6: countries into submission. They don't believe that you need political

1304
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:29,480
Speaker 6: settlements to solve wars. They think that you can settle

1305
01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 6: wars with the mailed fist. This is a foolish way

1306
01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 6: of thinking, but it is the way they think, and

1307
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:39,720
Speaker 6: that explains a lot of what's going on. The second

1308
01:03:39,720 --> 01:03:42,720
Speaker 6: thing is that it's quite clear that Prime Minister net

1309
01:03:42,720 --> 01:03:48,480
Speaker 6: and Yahoo is in political trouble and legal trouble inside

1310
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:54,040
Speaker 6: of Israel, and that his best strategy for surviving is

1311
01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:58,360
Speaker 6: a constant state of war. So many Israelis believe that

1312
01:03:58,960 --> 01:04:03,240
Speaker 6: as long as as Prime Minister nat Yao who is

1313
01:04:03,280 --> 01:04:05,880
Speaker 6: in office, he's going to go to great lengths to

1314
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:10,480
Speaker 6: keep the war machine in action, to keep fighting wars,

1315
01:04:10,560 --> 01:04:14,760
Speaker 6: because that's the best way he can achieve political survival.

1316
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:17,720
Speaker 6: So I think it's those two factors together that account

1317
01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:19,120
Speaker 6: for what Israel is doing.

1318
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:22,080
Speaker 2: I wanted to get your reaction to some of the

1319
01:04:22,120 --> 01:04:25,160
Speaker 2: allegations of Joe Kent, who just resigned from the Trump

1320
01:04:25,200 --> 01:04:30,480
Speaker 2: administration over the Iran War, and his telling effectively, you know,

1321
01:04:30,680 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 2: Israel came in and tricked effectively Trump into pursuing this path.

1322
01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:39,080
Speaker 2: He told Tucker Carlson yesterday, and clips were going to

1323
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:41,160
Speaker 2: do a more fulsome review of this interview later in

1324
01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:44,480
Speaker 2: the show, but he told Tucker Carlson effectively, they would

1325
01:04:44,520 --> 01:04:47,560
Speaker 2: bring in what appeared to be faulty intelligence to try

1326
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:52,080
Speaker 2: to manipulate the president and his advisors, and that is

1327
01:04:52,160 --> 01:04:56,760
Speaker 2: ultimately the reason why Trump launched this war. What do

1328
01:04:56,800 --> 01:04:59,400
Speaker 2: you make of those allegations and how does that match

1329
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:02,480
Speaker 2: with the report the thinking you've done about the way

1330
01:05:02,480 --> 01:05:04,680
Speaker 2: that Israel operates in the US.

1331
01:05:04,920 --> 01:05:09,320
Speaker 6: I have no doubt that Joe Kent is correct that

1332
01:05:09,480 --> 01:05:14,160
Speaker 6: it was Israel and the Israel lobby that led us

1333
01:05:14,360 --> 01:05:19,360
Speaker 6: into this war. I mean Mark or Rubio, the Secretary

1334
01:05:19,400 --> 01:05:22,560
Speaker 6: of State, and Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House,

1335
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:26,960
Speaker 6: said as much immediately after the war started. They made

1336
01:05:27,000 --> 01:05:29,760
Speaker 6: it clear it wasn't the United States that took the

1337
01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:33,120
Speaker 6: initiative in starting this war. It was Israel that took

1338
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:38,920
Speaker 6: the initiative, and Israel in effect dragged us in. Furthermore,

1339
01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:42,680
Speaker 6: you want to remember that Lindsey Graham has admitted that

1340
01:05:42,800 --> 01:05:48,000
Speaker 6: he went to Israel and he coached Prime Minister Natanyahu

1341
01:05:48,360 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 6: on how to convince President Trump to go to war

1342
01:05:53,120 --> 01:05:57,320
Speaker 6: against Iran. You just want to think about that. Here's

1343
01:05:57,320 --> 01:06:01,560
Speaker 6: a US senator saying that he was coaching Prime Minister

1344
01:06:01,680 --> 01:06:05,600
Speaker 6: Dan Yahoo on had to get President Trump to go

1345
01:06:05,680 --> 01:06:09,240
Speaker 6: to war against Iran. In other words, President Trump needed

1346
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:12,640
Speaker 6: coaching because his basic inclination was not to go to

1347
01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:15,240
Speaker 6: war against Iran. And then if you look at what

1348
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 6: was happening inside the United States, all you have to

1349
01:06:17,800 --> 01:06:22,080
Speaker 6: do is look at the two principal individuals who were

1350
01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:26,200
Speaker 6: advising Trump on whether or not he should go to war.

1351
01:06:26,680 --> 01:06:34,040
Speaker 6: They were Jared Kushner and Steve Whitcoff, who are passionate Zionists.

1352
01:06:34,120 --> 01:06:38,640
Speaker 6: In fact, Jonathan Powell, who is Britain's national security advisor.

1353
01:06:38,840 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 6: This is Britain's national security advisor. He was president at

1354
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:45,960
Speaker 6: the negotiations that were taking place between Iran and the

1355
01:06:46,040 --> 01:06:50,800
Speaker 6: United States right before the war, and he describes Kushner

1356
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:55,640
Speaker 6: and Witkoff as Israeli assets. Just think about that. The

1357
01:06:55,680 --> 01:06:59,800
Speaker 6: two principal advisors to President Trump, and remember President Trump

1358
01:07:00,200 --> 01:07:02,240
Speaker 6: that he was going to take his cue from those

1359
01:07:02,280 --> 01:07:04,880
Speaker 6: two individuals as to whether or not he should go

1360
01:07:04,920 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 6: to war against Iran were seen by the British National

1361
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:14,360
Speaker 6: Security Advisor as Israeli essence. Truly remarkable. This is just

1362
01:07:14,480 --> 01:07:16,480
Speaker 6: the tip of the iceberg. I could point to all

1363
01:07:16,520 --> 01:07:19,320
Speaker 6: sorts of other evidence that it was Israel and it

1364
01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:24,400
Speaker 6: was the lobby that pushed President President Trump into this war.

1365
01:07:24,680 --> 01:07:27,240
Speaker 2: And why do you think they succeeded with this president

1366
01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:30,520
Speaker 2: where other with other presidents? Obviously, I mean who talked

1367
01:07:30,520 --> 01:07:32,120
Speaker 2: about he is one of This war for forty years

1368
01:07:32,160 --> 01:07:34,600
Speaker 2: is the fulfillment of his greatest fantasy. Trump is not

1369
01:07:34,640 --> 01:07:37,880
Speaker 2: the first US president to get pressured towards a war

1370
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:41,880
Speaker 2: in Iran. What was it about him or his administration

1371
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:45,000
Speaker 2: or the tactics that they used that allowed them to

1372
01:07:45,040 --> 01:07:47,600
Speaker 2: succeed here where they had failed in the past.

1373
01:07:48,840 --> 01:07:51,200
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, there is the possibility that they

1374
01:07:51,400 --> 01:07:56,640
Speaker 6: have information about President Trump's past behavior that they're using

1375
01:07:56,720 --> 01:08:00,360
Speaker 6: to blackmail him. We have no hard evidence of that.

1376
01:08:00,440 --> 01:08:03,680
Speaker 6: I want to make it clear, but just watching this unfold,

1377
01:08:03,920 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 6: it does seem like that might be the case. Because

1378
01:08:08,640 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 6: President Trump is so beholden to the Israelis. It's really

1379
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:17,680
Speaker 6: quite amazing. But I think the two other arguments that

1380
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:20,120
Speaker 6: you can put on the table are a number one,

1381
01:08:20,160 --> 01:08:25,080
Speaker 6: that the Israelis actually convinced him that Iran was a

1382
01:08:25,080 --> 01:08:29,120
Speaker 6: paper tiger and that it could be easily brought to

1383
01:08:29,160 --> 01:08:33,080
Speaker 6: its knees. You want to remember that before the war started,

1384
01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:37,640
Speaker 6: when President Trump had moved the Armada into the Middle East,

1385
01:08:38,439 --> 01:08:43,040
Speaker 6: Steve Witkoff said that President Trump was surprised that the

1386
01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:46,519
Speaker 6: mere presence of the Armada and the threat that that

1387
01:08:46,760 --> 01:08:51,520
Speaker 6: Armada might be used against Iran didn't bring the Iranians

1388
01:08:51,960 --> 01:08:55,880
Speaker 6: to surrender. He thought that the threat, the mere threat

1389
01:08:55,920 --> 01:09:01,320
Speaker 6: of force, would coerce the Iranians into surrendering. That tells

1390
01:09:01,360 --> 01:09:04,680
Speaker 6: you he thought that this regime was very weak. He

1391
01:09:04,800 --> 01:09:09,479
Speaker 6: thought it would fail quickly. And this, by the way,

1392
01:09:09,680 --> 01:09:15,920
Speaker 6: is why President Trump didn't accept the arguments that this

1393
01:09:15,960 --> 01:09:20,080
Speaker 6: would be a long war and that the Iranians were

1394
01:09:20,360 --> 01:09:24,040
Speaker 6: likely to shut the Strait of Hormuz. He has said

1395
01:09:24,080 --> 01:09:27,120
Speaker 6: that he was told that the Iranians were likely to

1396
01:09:27,240 --> 01:09:30,639
Speaker 6: shut the Strait of Hormuz, but he just didn't believe

1397
01:09:30,680 --> 01:09:33,120
Speaker 6: it because he thought we would win a quick and

1398
01:09:33,280 --> 01:09:38,240
Speaker 6: easy and decisive victory. So I think President Trump was primed,

1399
01:09:38,720 --> 01:09:42,160
Speaker 6: mainly through the Israelis, to think that this was going

1400
01:09:42,240 --> 01:09:45,559
Speaker 6: to be an easy victory. Then the other thing is

1401
01:09:45,760 --> 01:09:50,880
Speaker 6: I think the Venezuela precedent gave him the impression that

1402
01:09:50,960 --> 01:09:53,360
Speaker 6: he could felt like a butterfly and sting like a bay,

1403
01:09:54,040 --> 01:09:57,719
Speaker 6: that what he did in Venezuela he could do in Iran.

1404
01:09:58,640 --> 01:10:01,800
Speaker 6: I don't think he fully realized despite the fact that

1405
01:10:01,880 --> 01:10:04,320
Speaker 6: the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was telling

1406
01:10:04,439 --> 01:10:09,640
Speaker 6: him that this was going to be an extremely difficult

1407
01:10:09,720 --> 01:10:13,160
Speaker 6: operation and we really didn't have a good military option.

1408
01:10:13,439 --> 01:10:17,680
Speaker 6: President Trump just disregarded that. He thought that the naysayers

1409
01:10:17,720 --> 01:10:21,360
Speaker 6: said this before Venezuela. But I went out and proved that,

1410
01:10:21,560 --> 01:10:24,720
Speaker 6: you know, we can do magical things in Venezuela, and

1411
01:10:24,760 --> 01:10:29,720
Speaker 6: I'll just do magical things again against Iran. And I

1412
01:10:29,760 --> 01:10:35,080
Speaker 6: think when you put Venezuela together with the stories he

1413
01:10:35,240 --> 01:10:38,920
Speaker 6: was being told about how weak and how vulnerable the

1414
01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:42,160
Speaker 6: Iranian regime was, I think it was easy for him

1415
01:10:42,240 --> 01:10:43,160
Speaker 6: to pull the trigger.

1416
01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:46,599
Speaker 3: The last question for you, sir, about the Straits of Hormuz.

1417
01:10:47,240 --> 01:10:50,519
Speaker 3: It appears that some sort of ground operation is you know,

1418
01:10:51,040 --> 01:10:54,479
Speaker 3: I wouldn't say potent, it seems potential. With the deployment

1419
01:10:54,520 --> 01:10:56,639
Speaker 3: of all these troops. It would make sense in terms

1420
01:10:56,640 --> 01:10:59,639
Speaker 3: of the escalation ladder. I believe you've compared it before

1421
01:10:59,640 --> 01:11:02,639
Speaker 3: it potent Glipoli. What would that look like? What would

1422
01:11:02,680 --> 01:11:05,959
Speaker 3: that draw us into any sort of ground control operation

1423
01:11:06,439 --> 01:11:08,360
Speaker 3: on the streets of Urmuz or on Carg Island.

1424
01:11:09,200 --> 01:11:13,160
Speaker 6: Well, Carg Island is different than the Strait because you

1425
01:11:13,240 --> 01:11:15,679
Speaker 6: have to get through the strait to get to Carg Island,

1426
01:11:16,479 --> 01:11:19,200
Speaker 6: unless you want to launch an attack from sweaty Arabia

1427
01:11:19,520 --> 01:11:22,879
Speaker 6: across the Persian Gulf onto the beaches of Carg Island,

1428
01:11:23,200 --> 01:11:26,200
Speaker 6: which I don't think we want to do. I think

1429
01:11:26,240 --> 01:11:32,560
Speaker 6: it's almost impossible to get through the Strait of Hormuz.

1430
01:11:32,760 --> 01:11:35,839
Speaker 6: I mean, it's very clear that you can't use naval

1431
01:11:35,920 --> 01:11:39,760
Speaker 6: force alone to get through. The US Navy won't even

1432
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:45,000
Speaker 6: go near the strait, and all the precedents in this

1433
01:11:45,120 --> 01:11:50,960
Speaker 6: regard say stay away ground forces. It would require a

1434
01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:56,280
Speaker 6: major operation. And even if you brought ground forces in

1435
01:11:56,560 --> 01:12:02,400
Speaker 6: and you controlled the terrain around the strait. The fact

1436
01:12:02,479 --> 01:12:05,799
Speaker 6: is it would still be exceedingly difficult for the Navy

1437
01:12:06,360 --> 01:12:11,559
Speaker 6: and for tankers and other kinds of ships, take cargo

1438
01:12:11,600 --> 01:12:15,120
Speaker 6: ships to get through the strait, in large part because

1439
01:12:15,160 --> 01:12:18,439
Speaker 6: there would still be mines at the bottom of the strait,

1440
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:23,000
Speaker 6: lots of mines which are easy for the Iranians to lay.

1441
01:12:23,960 --> 01:12:27,320
Speaker 6: And furthermore, the Iranians have all sorts of cruise missiles,

1442
01:12:27,360 --> 01:12:32,120
Speaker 6: ballistic missiles, drones, both sea based and air base that

1443
01:12:32,160 --> 01:12:35,360
Speaker 6: they can use to attack any ships that come near

1444
01:12:35,400 --> 01:12:38,479
Speaker 6: the strait. So I'm not sure that even if you

1445
01:12:39,080 --> 01:12:42,200
Speaker 6: wanted to commit large scale ground forces to try and

1446
01:12:42,840 --> 01:12:47,200
Speaker 6: surround the strait that that would solve the problem. And

1447
01:12:47,360 --> 01:12:51,480
Speaker 6: most importantly here, once you commit large scale ground forces,

1448
01:12:51,760 --> 01:12:55,160
Speaker 6: you're in a quagmire. I mean, this would be disastrous.

1449
01:12:55,439 --> 01:12:59,120
Speaker 6: Trump clearly understands that that, you know, putting ground forces

1450
01:13:00,080 --> 01:13:03,800
Speaker 6: anywhere inside of Iran, whether it's carg Island, whether it's

1451
01:13:03,840 --> 01:13:08,080
Speaker 6: around the strait, whether you're talking about putting ground forces

1452
01:13:08,240 --> 01:13:13,480
Speaker 6: inside of Iran to try and capture that enriched uranium

1453
01:13:13,560 --> 01:13:17,360
Speaker 6: that they have, is a prescription for a big trouble.

1454
01:13:18,439 --> 01:13:20,799
Speaker 1: Well, thank you so much. For joining us. Sir As always,

1455
01:13:21,040 --> 01:13:22,360
Speaker 1: we appreciate your analysis.

1456
01:13:23,080 --> 01:13:25,040
Speaker 6: You're more than welcome. It was my pleasure.

1457
01:13:25,120 --> 01:13:40,200
Speaker 1: Thank you,