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Speaker 1: Brought you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch. Investing in

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Speaker 1: local communities, economies and a sustainable future. That's the power

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Speaker 1: of global connections, Mary Lynch, Pierce Fenner, and Smith Incorporated

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Speaker 1: member s I p C. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and

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Speaker 1: of course on the Bloomberg This is arguably the most

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Speaker 1: interesting economic interview in the history of Bloomberg Surveillance, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: on the economy, including the work that we've done with

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News over the years. These two have battled with

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Speaker 1: many battles over the years, and today they said collegially

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Speaker 1: looking forward to American economics from Harvard University and from

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Speaker 1: Colombia University. Joseph Stiglet's it is a change world from

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Speaker 1: when you two went at it decades ago. Let me

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Speaker 1: first go to you, Professor Rogolf. What do you need

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Speaker 1: to observe from the Trump cabinet and those within this

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Speaker 1: new administration to soften the rhetoric of our new president.

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Speaker 1: I don't even know how to say that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we haven't want to say that he listens to them.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think he has appointed some adults, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the cabinet, the Secretary of State, at the Secretary

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Speaker 1: of Defense. But you know, is he someone who's going

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Speaker 1: to listen to them? This his behavior going to be erratic,

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Speaker 1: not so much looking at the policies as the whole temperament.

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Speaker 1: Do they look like, you know, they're going to be

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Speaker 1: a rational administration? You have been a harsh critic of

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Speaker 1: conservative economics and of the politics and the rhetoric of

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Speaker 1: the president, like not what you want to see from

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Speaker 1: the administration. How should Democrats progresses in a liberal world

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Speaker 1: respond to the Trump presidency. I think they have to

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Speaker 1: stand together and say, this is not normal. Uh, it

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Speaker 1: is not normal Uh in the United States, where we've

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Speaker 1: been combating racism, bigotry, uh, uh, misogyny for decades, to

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Speaker 1: have a president who so openly expresses those kinds of views. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And in many ways, that's the number one issue. UH

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Speaker 1: strongly agree with that. Uh. It's also a very big

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Speaker 1: issue to me is the rule of law, including the

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Speaker 1: international rule of law. Uh, if you want, Uh, there

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Speaker 1: are more companies to invest in the United States. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You change the tax law, you change the regulatory system.

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Speaker 1: I might disagree about how you do that, but you

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Speaker 1: don't go after individual company companies. That's smacks of authoritarianism fascism.

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Speaker 1: But Professor sig, this is not normal. But he was

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Speaker 1: elected on a democratic platform, and he was elected. What

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Speaker 1: he had a minority, he does not have a legitimacy

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Speaker 1: of and there was interference from Russia, but he wasn't elected.

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Speaker 1: What will the world look like in four years? Uh,

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Speaker 1: looks be clear. We don't know because there is a

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Speaker 1: very you know, we know what he said. I think

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Speaker 1: we have to take treats seriously what he said as

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Speaker 1: if and if he does anything like what he has

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Speaker 1: said and anything like some of his economic advisors who

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Speaker 1: are very strong protectionists. Uh, we will see a very

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Speaker 1: different world. I know what you're gonna say, and you

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Speaker 1: say the dreaded F word, fascism. We're Bill Gross a

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Speaker 1: week ago or so talk about the Mussolini industrial policy

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Speaker 1: of Italy? Can rogoff? Are there tilts towards that? Is

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Speaker 1: there a zero sum attitude here? That signals have changed

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Speaker 1: America where there has to be a global response to

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Speaker 1: Trump economics. Is this fascism light? Well, I think it's

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Speaker 1: President Obama said we need to give him a chance.

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Speaker 1: We want him to do well. The whole world wants

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Speaker 1: him to do well. So I don't think we have

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Speaker 1: want to have a reaction, you know, before he's actually

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Speaker 1: at a policy. But if we're talking about the threats

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Speaker 1: to institutions, I'd start with the fat um. Okay, simply,

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Speaker 1: there are a couple of vacancies. They're probably a couple

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Speaker 1: other governors who might step down, and then certainly Fisher

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Speaker 1: and Yelling are probably likely to leave. He's gonna get

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Speaker 1: to point the fet but more importantly, will he respect

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Speaker 1: their independence. There are lots of ways Congress can bring

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Speaker 1: pressure to bear. The president can look at what Nixon did,

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Speaker 1: Arthur Burns, that's why we had the great inflation of

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Speaker 1: the seven Is I see the Trump presidency is actually

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Speaker 1: having strong growth the first couple of years partly inertia,

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Speaker 1: partly deregulation, partly stimulus, but after that it could be

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Speaker 1: high inflation, a classics mass. Right. If if so, let's

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Speaker 1: spend one minute on defend Does Donald Trump really want

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Speaker 1: higher rates, which is what he's been asking for, and

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Speaker 1: tweets if you're in charge, how can you want higher

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Speaker 1: me in no ways in the construction industry. I know

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Speaker 1: this is a good example of the mystery of Trump

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Speaker 1: because he said something during the election that, as King said,

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Speaker 1: is totally the opposite of what anybody in the construction

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Speaker 1: industry normally believes. And he wants a boost to the

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Speaker 1: economy and high interest rates will be even worse for

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Speaker 1: the dollar in terms of a high exchange rate that

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Speaker 1: he's worried. In the time that we have left with you,

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Speaker 1: with this historic moment, with the two of you together,

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Speaker 1: let me start with you, Professor stig Lets. We need

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Speaker 1: an inter national advocacy. Now. Can the i m F

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Speaker 1: be that institution with Madame Legarde after Madame Legarde, someone

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Speaker 1: like Robert rog And running the new I m of

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Speaker 1: Who knows, But what would you like to see out

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Speaker 1: of our international institutions, particularly the i m F. Well,

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Speaker 1: I hope and I assume that they will be a

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Speaker 1: very strong advocate of the international rule of law, that

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Speaker 1: there are certain rules that we have agreed upon and

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Speaker 1: the way the international system works. Uh. The w t

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Speaker 1: O is particularly important because the area where he has

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Speaker 1: been most explicit in threatening the international rule of law

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Speaker 1: is a unilateral kind of protectionism. Uh. And so we

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Speaker 1: need a voice to say this is not the direction

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Speaker 1: to go, and then there will be cases brought if

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Speaker 1: he actually goes and does those things. Uh. And we

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Speaker 1: are there, we ought to be support for for what

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Speaker 1: they adjudicate. I guess the problem is at all of

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Speaker 1: these organizations, Professor Rogoff, are considered elitist or they're they're

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Speaker 1: considered to go to the ones that have enjoyed all

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Speaker 1: the benefits of globalization. Is it not the markets that

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day will really be the

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Speaker 1: president's checks and balance. Well, of course, but I just

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Speaker 1: speaking of the I m F. I mean, I do

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Speaker 1: think Christine Leguard has been very sensitive to inequality in

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Speaker 1: these issues which are really not so obviously within the

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Speaker 1: IMPS permit. But at the end of the day, this

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Speaker 1: is a political issue. It's a technocratic institution. Professor rogo

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Speaker 1: If you're a great phrase which I stole for the

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Speaker 1: for my book title years ago, flying on one engine

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Speaker 1: were now flow without question. Flying on one engine now,

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Speaker 1: at least within our political economics, How do these international

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Speaker 1: organizations assist a new world order. Given the turmoil within America, well,

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Speaker 1: I think they could be challenged very quickly with problems

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Speaker 1: and emerging markets. If US interest rates rise. We live

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Speaker 1: in a world where by many measures, the dollar are

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Speaker 1: it's more influential than ever help me capital out close.

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Speaker 1: We could see problems even in the context of a

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Speaker 1: growing UUs and Europe. But Professor Siglitz, is this about inequality.

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Speaker 1: I had a pretty spirited session with the Madonna le Guard,

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Speaker 1: Very Dad and Larry Summers and a lot of people

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Speaker 1: on the panel. We're saying that actually, this is not

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Speaker 1: populism isn't fed from inequality. It's fed from people feeling

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Speaker 1: left out that they're not being taken care of. And

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Speaker 1: this goes back to taking control back, which could be immigration. Actually,

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Speaker 1: I think, uh, at the bottom a lot of this

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Speaker 1: is the fact that you say, in the United States,

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Speaker 1: the bottom of hex stagnant incomes for a quarter century.

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Speaker 1: If their incomes have been growing, they would be more

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Speaker 1: accepting of immigration, They would be you know, their attitudes

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Speaker 1: towards these changes would be totally different. So the fact is, yes,

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Speaker 1: things are out of their control, but not only are

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Speaker 1: they out of the control. They've been going in the

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Speaker 1: wrong direct distinctive different of your two economics, I would

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Speaker 1: respectfully suggest, as Joe, you're taking a more broader view,

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Speaker 1: and I would say, can you have more of a

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Speaker 1: rigor within your analysis? Coalesce those two views right now?

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Speaker 1: The economic advice this president is going to get, what

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Speaker 1: flavor of advice does it need need to be? Does

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Speaker 1: it need to be broader? Stiglets? Let me just say

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Speaker 1: we're both so much closer to reality that he might

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Speaker 1: get it wouldn't matter. What matter? When would you accept

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Speaker 1: the job as governor of the FED? Professor Stiglets, Uh,

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Speaker 1: I think of the answer is yes. I think it's

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Speaker 1: very important for anybody who is willing to, you know,

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Speaker 1: say I'm not going to be you know, the FED

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Speaker 1: has a kind of independence. Uh. If I got appointed,

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Speaker 1: I would exercise that. And if he tries to fire me,

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Speaker 1: that's that's life. Yeah, very it's unfair because you have

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Speaker 1: very little time. But how do you redefine globalization to

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Speaker 1: include good question? Well, you know, what we have to

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Speaker 1: understand is that globalization has represented a fundamental change of

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Speaker 1: many the rules of the game in ways that have

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Speaker 1: disadvantaged large groups of our population think about that way.

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Speaker 1: So what we have to do is rewrite those rules

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Speaker 1: in ways that undo some of that. So, for instance,

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Speaker 1: one example is UH workers in the United States are

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Speaker 1: threatened by their bargaining power is weaker. What we've done

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Speaker 1: simultaneously is weakened unions and weaken their bargaining power in

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Speaker 1: the workplace. If we, instead of weakening it further said,

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Speaker 1: let's try to help them unionize. You know, it won't

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Speaker 1: fully undo the force of globalization, but at least that

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Speaker 1: gives them a little bit more sense of control. Professor

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Speaker 1: let me just point to the work of another in

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Speaker 1: outbol Price Winner other than Sticklets, who's here at the forum,

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Speaker 1: Anga Steten, who has read and that you know, you

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Speaker 1: have to be careful when you're talking about inequality because

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Speaker 1: if you think of the whole world, this has arguably

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Speaker 1: been the best thirty years in history. This is a

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Speaker 1: question of you know, how do you treat people within

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Speaker 1: borders versus across borders. And I will say the tax

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Speaker 1: cut is really hard for me to understand if we're

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Speaker 1: trying to address inequality, Professor Rogo, Professor sticks, this has

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Speaker 1: been wonderful for us in the decades we've been here

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Speaker 1: a great, great moment as well, Neil Robinias where this

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Speaker 1: New York University. I was talking to our executive producer

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Speaker 1: Rachel Worsban about a conversation with Roubini in two thousand

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Speaker 1: five or two thousand six, if they claimed Belvedere Hotel here,

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Speaker 1: Professor Rubini and I laid out the financial crisis of

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Speaker 1: the next thirty six months. It wasn't that easy back

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Speaker 1: in neurial. But what we got wrong, and what you've

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Speaker 1: mentioned in your book and throughout this crisis, we get

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Speaker 1: the amplitude wrong. We get the scope the size of

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Speaker 1: these moves all of us. What are we getting wrong

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Speaker 1: right now about the amplitudes we will see under President

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Speaker 1: Trudge Trump. Well, the markets are happy sincetell action because

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Speaker 1: of course it's gonna be physical. Steamer is going to

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Speaker 1: increase growth in the short run. Is cutting taxes mostly

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Speaker 1: for the rich, capital gains, income taxes, corporate taxes, estate taxes,

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Speaker 1: gonna slash all sorts of regulation. I think the resk

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Speaker 1: that are enterprised by the market is that the fiscal

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Speaker 1: steamulus has already led the signal of it to a

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Speaker 1: rising long rates doubling of the year and a sharp

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Speaker 1: price of the US dollar. Donald Trump says, yes, said

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Speaker 1: one thousand jobs in Indiana carrier, but the appreciation of

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Speaker 1: the dollar based on the FED model is going to

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Speaker 1: read that but next year and have two four hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand jobs lost in manufacturing. And if the dollar is

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Speaker 1: going to strength that further and longer, it's going higher

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Speaker 1: because the fiscal steamless is excessive in an economy that

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Speaker 1: is close to full employment, forcing the FED to tighten

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Speaker 1: faster and sooner. Stronger dollar hiring interested in a crowd out.

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Speaker 1: The recovery gonna damage economic growth. So paradoxically, supply side

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Speaker 1: trickle downe instead of helping the white working class that voted,

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's going to force them to become very

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Speaker 1: protectionist and even more so against trade, globalization, and migration.

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Speaker 1: So if inconsistency between trickle down on one side and

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Speaker 1: protection is on the other side, this is basically a

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Speaker 1: working assumption of what we've seen in policies. How did

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Speaker 1: we miss this? We were in there, you know, I've

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Speaker 1: been here seventy two hours and all I keep I'm

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Speaker 1: thinking is are we missing something? Because twelve months ago

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Speaker 1: we completely missed Brexit. We completely missed Donald Trump. Are

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Speaker 1: we looking at things wrong? Well? Often what said the

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Speaker 1: commercial wisdom in Davos is a contrarian dicator. In two

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Speaker 1: thousand and six and seven was predicting a roup of

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Speaker 1: financial crisis. People were thinking it was a lunatic lassary.

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Speaker 1: By the way, it was the panic about China generally,

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Speaker 1: February asking me back to thousand and eight. I said, no,

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Speaker 1: it's not gonna be back to thousand and eight. Is

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Speaker 1: gonna be temporary phenomenon. But at that time, nobody predicted Brexit,

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Speaker 1: nobody predicted Trump, nobody predicted that rent is losing Italy.

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Speaker 1: And there's this massive backlash populist against globalization because here

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Speaker 1: we have, of course the top one percent elites who

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Speaker 1: are not in touch with what's going on in the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world. So how big do you think

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Speaker 1: the wave of populism will be? How will it reach France?

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Speaker 1: Will it even reach if not, it is Netherlands and

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Speaker 1: possibly touched Germany. I think it's going to increase throughout

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Speaker 1: the world. The first of all in Europe. There is

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Speaker 1: a meaningful chance that lepan might win in France. I

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Speaker 1: think the Poles are wrong. There's a stigma to say

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Speaker 1: that you're voting for Lepan because her father is a

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Speaker 1: neo Nazi. She was a neo fascist herself, so the

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Speaker 1: same way which a stigma to say are voting for Brexit,

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Speaker 1: for Trump or against Rentzy. I think the Poles in

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Speaker 1: France around. Secondly, Philon is a toucher right near liberalists

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Speaker 1: in a country where essentially the Colombic policies are all populished,

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Speaker 1: and even lepan is having a an agenda is actually

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Speaker 1: appealing to the left, to socialist and comedy. So in

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Speaker 1: a second round where there is Philon against Lepan, many

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Speaker 1: on the left might decide to vote for Lepan. And

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Speaker 1: if she's elected at the end of Europe and the

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Speaker 1: Eurozone is a risk initially when there will be election,

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Speaker 1: Chinquest is committed to come to power and never a

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Speaker 1: friend of on the euro Those are important risks. You

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Speaker 1: mentioned neo fascism with miss Lepan. Yeah, does Mr Trump

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Speaker 1: have elements of neo fascism to his discourse while living

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Speaker 1: aside you know is bashing the press and also the thing.

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Speaker 1: Net Felts was Professor Economics, Columbia, Nobel Prize winner, free

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Speaker 1: market supporter, He said that he is bashing of businesses

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Speaker 1: in stelling businesses where they should be producing, located so on,

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Speaker 1: reminds him of the corporate is that was in Nazi

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Speaker 1: Germany and in fascist Italy. We are not yet there,

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Speaker 1: but this is trying to micromanage economic activity. Going against

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Speaker 1: market is a paradox. Yesterday, President Jimpin, who is nominally

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Speaker 1: they either of a communist country, has said, I mean

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Speaker 1: in favor of free trade and globalization. What the leader

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Speaker 1: of the biggest catalist country in the world, Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: is saying things that against capitalism. That's a part of

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Speaker 1: the mail. Each front rate economist has a different style

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Speaker 1: of different cases. You have been one of our great

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Speaker 1: hinging old world analysis with the New World of America.

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Speaker 1: But after what you've seen in the last twelve months,

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Speaker 1: is America becoming part of an old world mentality? Well,

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Speaker 1: it's becoming in the sense that unfortunately globalization as winners

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Speaker 1: and losers, and we've forgotten that the losers are many,

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Speaker 1: not just the white blue colors, but also increasingly white

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Speaker 1: color workers are displaced by trade, migration and globalization and

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Speaker 1: the policies of the last time twenty years. I have

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Speaker 1: not dealt with those who are losing from globalization, and Trump,

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Speaker 1: even if it's a silver spoon born billionaire, has come

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Speaker 1: to rally for these people. Even if it's economic policies

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Speaker 1: frankly on taxation and regulation on labor are not gonna

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Speaker 1: help a white working class that voted for him. Therefore,

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Speaker 1: is gonna have to give them some red meat. What's

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Speaker 1: gonna be red meat? Bashing migration, building a wall, and

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Speaker 1: becoming very protectionist. But that's not going to help the

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Speaker 1: working class, right, But on the paradox, right, so that

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Speaker 1: you know, bashing and building walls and the US becoming

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Speaker 1: more inward looking walls, China trying to save globalization in

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Speaker 1: intern aspects to sit automatically paradox lead to conflicts between

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Speaker 1: the two nations. Well, it certainly can lead to trade

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Speaker 1: tensions and currency wars. Well, you know, eventually tensions can

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Speaker 1: lead also towards China could be accused of being a

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Speaker 1: currency manipulator. You might try to slap pariffs against China,

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Speaker 1: and that eventually could lead to retaliation in many in

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Speaker 1: different ways. And then there's the political dimension states that

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Speaker 1: have been done by Trump and his surrogates about Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: about the side China see about Korea may lead actually

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Speaker 1: to build up of military tensions as well. Mr Trump's

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Speaker 1: lead advisor on a sperient bar of Uk Irvine, has

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Speaker 1: a tone about China which is about them. It was

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Speaker 1: reverential here yesterday for presidency as well. What tone would

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Speaker 1: you advise for the Trump administration given Trump's domestic politics,

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Speaker 1: and yet they have to project to China. How should

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Speaker 1: they project? Well, whatever it is, an outside there is

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Speaker 1: running for the presidency, whether it was RNA, Reagan or

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Speaker 1: Big Clinton or Bush. Before the election, the Bush China

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Speaker 1: say no democracy, no human rights, and fair trade, dumping

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Speaker 1: your name, the currency manipulation. Once they come to power,

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Speaker 1: they realize you cannot bully China is the second largest

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Speaker 1: economy in the world soon enough the first largest, is

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Speaker 1: a major political and geopolitical power, and you have to

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Speaker 1: engage China. The idea you're gonna bully China, I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's consistent. So either they understand that and they

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Speaker 1: start to have a constructive dialogue with China. But a

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Speaker 1: plenty of things you can sell about China to opening

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Speaker 1: up to trade, to foreign entirety investment, fair trade, you

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Speaker 1: name it, or if you're gonna challenge China on the

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Speaker 1: economic or trading or sides in aggressive way, then there's

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Speaker 1: going to be conflict. All right, But so we've we've

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Speaker 1: been what ten minutes talking about risk and possible conflicts.

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Speaker 1: Why are the markets up or they do a big

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Speaker 1: correction because they're in Lolaland Well, the markets went up

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Speaker 1: after the election because one, you have a phisical team's

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Speaker 1: gonna boost growth in the short run. Secondly, the tax

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Speaker 1: cats are all going to go to the corporate and

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Speaker 1: the relative that is income taxes, corporate taxes, state taxes,

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Speaker 1: coublic things taxes, and there's doing a slash regulation on environment,

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Speaker 1: on trade, on financial sector, on pharma, on your name it,

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Speaker 1: on labor. And therefore the markets going up. I think

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Speaker 1: the markets are underprising that the fiscal steam was accessive.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna lead to a tight in the financial condition.

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Speaker 1: Longer returned dollars going to lead them to trade wards

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Speaker 1: and profection is gonna damage growth and economy and their

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Speaker 1: food market down the line. So a huge correction you're expecting.

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Speaker 1: I expected over time there will be a huge correction, Yes,

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Speaker 1: over time, alright, new or rebellion on particularly good form

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Speaker 1: I think brought you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch,

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Speaker 1: dedicated to bringing our clients insights and solutions to meet

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Speaker 1: the challenges of a transforming world. That's the power of

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Speaker 1: global connections, Mary Lynch, Pierce fennerin Smith Incorporated, Member s

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Speaker 1: I p C. Before we bringing Robert Shiller. Tom, let

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Speaker 1: me see one of your favorite words and ask you

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Speaker 1: about the zeitgeist in Davos. So what are you feeling

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Speaker 1: today on the second day of your world that cond

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Speaker 1: informs any meaning very different than the first day. It

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Speaker 1: is always true that this these meetings shift and I

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Speaker 1: would shift from the certitude of everyone speaking of populism

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Speaker 1: to the reality David Gura of uncertainty and something I've

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Speaker 1: never thought of before, folks, and that is the uncertainty

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Speaker 1: of the uncertainty. I'm not quite sure mathematically what that means,

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Speaker 1: but that is the feeling up here, conversation to converse station.

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Speaker 1: The other thing on a real basis, David is yesterday

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Speaker 1: was completely dwarfed by the speech by the President of

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Speaker 1: China in London, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom,

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Speaker 1: and today is a much more normal day of sharp discourse.

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Speaker 1: Francine Laquise panel early this morning, David Girl was on

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Speaker 1: fire and animated Larry Summers. Yeah, Larry Summers was fired up.

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Speaker 1: Before you bring our next guest, let me read a

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Speaker 1: tweet from him, Robert Schiller tweeting this morning most interesting

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Speaker 1: things so far at Davos, Patrick Brown, I believe a

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Speaker 1: Stanford biochemist speaks on coming veggie synthetic meat. Will all

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Speaker 1: be vegetarians because it's cheaper. There's there's a lot on

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Speaker 1: the menu as it were there in Davos. Well, there

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Speaker 1: are two or three different Davos. But David, I would

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Speaker 1: suggest the panel I looked at was Living to one hundred,

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Speaker 1: which was a panel they had. I'm not sure I

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Speaker 1: want to car there was a battle of getting out there.

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Speaker 1: He has not one hundred, but he has aged in

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Speaker 1: the world of seen all in economics laureate from Yale University. Uh,

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Speaker 1: Robert Schiller, It's wonderful to have you. I know, David

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Speaker 1: Girls got a bunch of questions for you as well.

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Speaker 1: Describe uncertainty for our audience worldwide. Everybody learns it an

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Speaker 1: econ one one. Carl Case at Wellesley taught it for

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Speaker 1: years of late Carl Case, what is uncertainty. Well, the

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Speaker 1: traditional definition was given by Frank Knight at University of

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Speaker 1: Chicago professor in a book called Risk and Uncertainty. I

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Speaker 1: think risk, he said, is measurable probabilities, where you know,

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Speaker 1: flipping a clients fifty fifty chance, you know it's uncertainty

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Speaker 1: is in you don't even know what's being tossed. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I couldn't possibly come up with a probability number. But

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Speaker 1: I think uncertainty maybe has slightly different meaning now than

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Speaker 1: Frank Knights. I think maybe it's, uh, it's the pervasiveness

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Speaker 1: of the UH, the new Trump administration and the Brexit

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Speaker 1: action UH bringing up it's sort of nighty and uncertainty.

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Speaker 1: But it's also just a sense that the whole world

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Speaker 1: is changing. Even up the valley. We have a jargon

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Speaker 1: alert Robert Schiller, folks talking about Frank Knight in the

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Speaker 1: classic paper David Gura of nine and when you hear Green,

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Speaker 1: Spann or Schuller speak of nighty and k and I

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Speaker 1: g H nighty and uncertainty, there's a certain character and

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Speaker 1: heritage to that from another time and place. David Robert

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Speaker 1: Shiller give us a sense here of how much of

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Speaker 1: the focus at Davis, how much of the focus at

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Speaker 1: the annual meeting is on Trump pomics, on defining what

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Speaker 1: it is, on on getting a sense of what it's

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Speaker 1: going to consist of once he's inaugurated on Friday. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's always amazed me how much attention Donald Trump gets. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It shows to me the power of narratives, the power

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Speaker 1: of showmanship. He honed this on his TV show The Apprentice,

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Speaker 1: and he's gotten expert at it. He's he's a master storyteller,

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Speaker 1: and he's gotten the whole world looking at it. We

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Speaker 1: were talking about uncertainty a moment ago Nightie and uncertainty.

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Speaker 1: How much of it is there? And what are you

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Speaker 1: looking for when you when you're looking for clarity, when

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Speaker 1: you looking for a better sense of what Trump and

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Speaker 1: omics is and what it's going to mean. What's going

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Speaker 1: to provide those answers to you? See? An example of

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Speaker 1: real ninety and uncertainty is the uncertainty generated by Trump's

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Speaker 1: tweets about nuclear power, nuclear weapons. Uh. And he has

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Speaker 1: suggested that we are now entering a new nuclear arms

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Speaker 1: race with other countries that because he wants to talk

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Speaker 1: tough about our nuclear arsenal, other countries are going to

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Speaker 1: be deciding that they have to build them too. That

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Speaker 1: is real uncertainty. Where where does that bring us? Now?

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Speaker 1: It may be that he's wise and those that it's

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Speaker 1: just cheap talk, nothing will happen from saying these things,

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Speaker 1: but I you know, I think we're many of us

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Speaker 1: worried that it isn't cheap talk and it has brings

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Speaker 1: real and fundamental uncertainty to our lives. Is there an

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Speaker 1: upside of potential upsite to all this talk, whether cheaper

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Speaker 1: or otherwise. Is it good that we're having more communication

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Speaker 1: about policy issues that less is is uncertain because more

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Speaker 1: is poken of. Well, I think it's refreshing at times

427
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 1: to hear Donald Trump questioned some of our basic assumptions. Well,

428
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 1: for example, should we demonize Russia? I'm thinking that maybe

429
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 1: we should be wary of the current regime in Russia,

430
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 1: And he's right, let's not demonize the country or the people.

431
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 1: They're nice people. I can tell you have that many

432
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 1: nice Russians. But uh so he turns the talk around

433
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 1: in ways that we're kind of unacceptable, and sometimes it's

434
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 1: a good thing. I think. Is it a guilded age?

435
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 1: Professor Schiller, we had I was shocked this morning in

436
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: our early hours of Bloomberg surveillance, how many times people

437
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 1: spoke of a neo fascism in the industrial policy of

438
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 1: Mussolini in the n twenties. That's an emotion from another

439
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 1: time and place. Can we drag forward that this is

440
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: just simply a plutocracy and a time of a guilded age. Well,

441
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 1: Mussolini was he rich? I don't think so. I don't

442
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: believe he was so. It it's uh, it's an unusual trunk, isn't.

443
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 1: Trump is an unusual combination of a gifted rebel rouser

444
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:12,159
Speaker 1: and a billionaire. So I wouldn't call it a plutocracy,

445
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: although that that's an element of it. It's it's his.

446
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: You know, some people discover their theirselves in front of

447
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 1: an audience. You know, you start, you start observing, and

448
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 1: you're observing the audience and noting what works, and it

449
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: becomes a passion doing that. That's why Trump isn't hasn't

450
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 1: been interested in getting briefings. It's not what he does, right,

451
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: He's he's a speaker, an action figure. We've been talking

452
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: about history here a little bit, looking back to the

453
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 1: nineteen twenties and nineteen thirties. What's what's useful to you

454
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 1: when you're looking at history now? What are you reading?

455
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: What are you looking at or are there analogs here

456
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: in American history for what we're seeing today? Absolutely. I

457
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: I just gave my American Economic Association presidential address called

458
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 1: narrative Economics. And I've been back in the twenties and

459
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: thirties trying to un to stand the narratives of that day.

460
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 1: And people forget what was on people's minds then. For so,

461
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 1: for example, this UH is a factor about uncertainty. Back

462
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: in the nineteen thirties Mexico, the Mexican government nationalized the

463
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: oil fields UH and the hacienda's UH. It was a

464
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: major step. And at the same time there were people

465
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: talking about that in the US and and Franklin Delano

466
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 1: Rose about seemed to be our president seemed to be

467
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 1: drifting more to the left over the years of his administration,

468
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: and we came into appear where many business people said

469
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:42,360
Speaker 1: in the nineteen thirties, we're not expanding because of uncertainty.

470
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: And I think we have this now right now. Trump

471
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 1: offers inspiration and uncertainty at the same time. Is you

472
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 1: gave a speech to the American Economic Association. It harkens

473
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 1: back to Joseph Schopeger's a claim speech of another time

474
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 1: and place, Uh, the nineteen forties. Is it is cham

475
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 1: Paider faced in his speech a zero sum society? Forget

476
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 1: about the politics and the emotion of neo fascism? Is

477
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 1: it neo mercantilism that we fall back to, like what

478
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 1: we saw in the thirties? Right? Well, so that the thirties,

479
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,119
Speaker 1: that's another source of the Great Depression. It was it

480
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 1: was trade wars. Uh. And so people try to solve

481
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 1: their depression problem the same way Trump is proposing solving it.

482
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 1: It's not it's not an inspirational story. So ultimately it's

483
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 1: been goes back to Adam Smith. Our prosperity is generated

484
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: by trade, by people doing what they do best, and uh,

485
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 1: market forces determining who is doing the best. Uh. Now

486
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: Trump wants to interfere with market forces. Now he may

487
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 1: have a legitimate argument for doing that because some people

488
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: weren't insured against risks to their careers, and now they

489
00:28:57,960 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: they kind of thought they had a right to something

490
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 1: action from the government. So maybe they are owed that.

491
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: But it does come at across of Economic Efficiency. Bob Sheler,

492
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: let me ask you. You You just finished your tenure as

493
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 1: the head of the American Economic Association. You mentioned the

494
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 1: speech that you delivered at the meeting in Chicago narrative economics.

495
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 1: I put that out on Twitter. I want to ask

496
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 1: you about inclusivity in economics. Imagine that's something that you've

497
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: had to wrestle with here over the last couple of years.

498
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: It seems like something that's talked about more and more

499
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 1: at confidences like the one you're attending now in Davos.

500
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: What progress have we made on making economics more inclusive?

501
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: Are you referring to women in economics? Women in economics, yes, exactly.

502
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 1: Minority is expanding the field. Well, there has been progress, uh,

503
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: but it is still a ways to go. Uh. I

504
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 1: don't know what to say that economics has been traditionally

505
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 1: a male field. I don't know why. Claudia Golden, who

506
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,479
Speaker 1: was a professor of economics at Harvard, did a study

507
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 1: of women's reaction to economics and concluded that women uh

508
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: react more strongly to the poor grade they get in

509
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 1: their into our econ course and uh their perfectionists, whereas

510
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 1: man they don't care. Uh. So women have to understand

511
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: or I shouldn't put it like that, but uh, I

512
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: think they are increasingly accepting the importance of the field. Uh.

513
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: It's it's actually a very good field to go into,

514
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 1: I think, for even if you don't become an economist,

515
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: you know it's interesting. David, I'm so glad you brought

516
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 1: this up. I've never seen Bob Schuller squirm so so

517
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,719
Speaker 1: my life trying to get h oddus. I look at

518
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 1: Amanda Kowalski or Naomi Lamora at Yale University economics, and

519
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 1: I love your idea that women get more upset at

520
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: that econ one on one exam, which full disclosure, I'm

521
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 1: I'm really against the way, freshman your economics is taught

522
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 1: in America. I think it's a tosserved was to any

523
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: and all involved in particularly teachers, frankly, but within this

524
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: is the idea, even if we're not math centric, even

525
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 1: if we're not Michael Woodward, you gotta know some math

526
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: to do economics and to understand the dynamics. To our listeners,

527
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 1: Professor Schiller struggling with mathematics at home for younger children,

528
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: what's the formula? How do you get kids engaged to

529
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 1: get to the dynamics of Euclidean geometry, the dynamics of algebra,

530
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,719
Speaker 1: let alone get on maybe to a possible understanding of

531
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 1: differential equations. How do you put that love in kids? Well,

532
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 1: I guess I succeeded. My kids liked man. My son

533
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: was a math major in college. What did I do?

534
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think it has a certain lower

535
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 1: to it, a certain narrative. When I was a kid,

536
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: I read Mathematics and the Imagination. Yes, that's the same

537
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: book that Google founders must have read, because they took

538
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 1: the word Google from that book as a very big number.

539
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I think that there's a Yeah,

540
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,959
Speaker 1: not everyone is going to be interested in math. But right,

541
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna editorialize here, David Girl, I want you to

542
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: jump in with a professor. But to me, the basic

543
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 1: idea is you've got to have permission to let your

544
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: kids be nerds. And there's a whole societal construct in

545
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: America it says you have to be nerd free. There's

546
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 1: a photograph of young Schiller, newly minuted out of school,

547
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 1: surrounded by Migdigliani and a whole bunch of other guys,

548
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 1: and he is the nerd in the room. Trust me, nobody.

549
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 1: They show up at the summer conference and everybody says

550
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: CASHUS hipsters can be in the sixties and their Schiller

551
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: sitting bowled upright with a tie, David fob Shiller. Let

552
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: me bring it back to Davos in the limited time

553
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: that that we have left that we mentioned the speech

554
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: by the Chinese president yesterday. Vice President Biden speaking in

555
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: Davos this morning delivering a really impassioned speech about the

556
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: trans Atlantic relationship in the future of Europe. On ye

557
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,239
Speaker 1: his words, it's imperative that we act or to lead

558
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 1: to defend the liberal international order. Who's going to take

559
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: up that mantle here in the new term? Are we

560
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: gonna see who's gonna be fighting for that, the liberal

561
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 1: international order? And how difficult is that fight going to be? Evaluay?

562
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: I saw a Biden's speech and I liked it. Um.

563
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 1: I didn't find much to disagree with. Uh. We could

564
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 1: have had a President Biden that was once talked about,

565
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 1: but I guess he won't be the person. I think

566
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 1: a lot of people in America, though, are realizing the

567
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 1: importance of civil society. UH, and that we have to

568
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 1: help reaffirm American civil society, which means that we don't

569
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 1: rely on the president to form our view. We have

570
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: our own We have our own society, and the President

571
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: is our servant in this civil society. Bob Shiller, thank

572
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us Today has been fantastic.

573
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 1: I have no idea where America and our good society

574
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 1: is in six months. The uncertainty here is palpable, but

575
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 1: your voice all the criticism we get when you're on

576
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: the right the left, they go back and forth on Schiller,

577
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: thank you for your exuberance here at our meetings. Robert

578
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 1: Schiller of Yale uh University, David Gray and New York

579
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,760
Speaker 1: Tom Keene in Davos, Switzerland, there for the World Economic

580
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 1: Forum's annual meeting. In Tom, I know you're there with

581
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: a special guest. I'll let you bring him in. Very

582
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 1: special guest. David Lipton had large shoes to fill. Some

583
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: would say it was John Lipsky, and of course his

584
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 1: tenure UH and leadership at the International Monetary Fund. Dr

585
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 1: Lipton is the first Deputy Managing Director of the i

586
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: m F. People say, well, what is that? And it's

587
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: a most interesting and important job. Is the I m

588
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: f tries to adapt and adjust to the international economic system.

589
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: Dr Lipton is out of Wesleyan and Harvard and most

590
00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: importantly in Germaine. To the moment, was part of one

591
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: of the most important moments in economics I've ever seen,

592
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: and that was jeff Sex getting off the plane from

593
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 1: Russia a million years ago as Russia was thrown into turmoil.

594
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: You served and worked with Jeffrey Sax and Russia a long,

595
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 1: long time ago. Within your new assessment, how is Russian

596
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 1: economic growth and when we see Mr Putin and the

597
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 1: back and forth with Mr Trump framed for us the

598
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: Russian economy that the I m f C s. Sure. First,

599
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 1: it's a pleasure to be with you. Um. I was

600
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 1: just in Moscow last week at the guide our forum

601
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 1: UH named after the reformer who we were working with

602
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 1: this time. Russia has had a terribly tough decade with

603
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 1: the global financial crisis, then the oil price decline and

604
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,839
Speaker 1: the sanctions. And during that period where the country might

605
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 1: have fallen into chaos again much as it had experienced

606
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,280
Speaker 1: at the breakup of the Soviet Union, they actually managed

607
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 1: policy extremely well. The central Bank kept inflation under control,

608
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 1: the Finance ministry kept the budget from exploding despite the

609
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: incredible loss of revenue, So they get a lot of

610
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:19,919
Speaker 1: credit for avoiding instability that would have turned a tough

611
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: decade into a real debacle. But their problem is that

612
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: now with the recession ending, Uh, they're headed for growth,

613
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 1: but it's really slow growth. It's you know, gonna be

614
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: just a little bit this year and we think, you know,

615
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 1: maybe one and a half percent over the medium term.

616
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: That's just not enough. Yeah, Saxon Lipton observed historic change

617
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 1: in Russia. What will be the new Russia with Mr? Putin?

618
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 1: And I know you can't speak on American policy, but

619
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 1: as a representative of the I m F, what does

620
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 1: the new oil at all lower price Russia look like?

621
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 1: Oil is no longer a big enough deal in Russia

622
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: to drive the economy to higher living standards. Total oil

623
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:10,720
Speaker 1: production in Russia before the price decline with two thousand

624
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 1: dollars a person, you know, they can't have living standards

625
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 1: with that. So they have if they if they have

626
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 1: a future, it's going to be to build a private economy, uh,

627
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:27,720
Speaker 1: that can take advantage of all of the new technologies,

628
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 1: can be modern, can be diversified, they're working on it right,

629
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: but they have a long wait. And I want to

630
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 1: famous folks, is Dr Lipton is one of our great

631
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 1: experts on Russia. David Gura, he had a bigger entourage

632
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 1: than Laguard and his entourage. They're all shaking their heads, going, wait,

633
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 1: this isn't an interview on Russia. We're doing behind a

634
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: So David saved me from my Russia fixation. I know

635
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,439
Speaker 1: we're gonna come back here with David Lipton. I certainly

636
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: want to ask about the future of multi ladder institutions

637
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:55,879
Speaker 1: like the like the International Monetary fone, given what we've

638
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: seen here in the US and around the world. We'll

639
00:37:57,640 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: get to that. David Lipton with us. He's the first

640
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 1: manage director of the International Monetary Fund. I want my

641
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: colleague David got to jump in here. But I believe

642
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 1: I saw a lift of Maurice sobs Fell's latest adjustments

643
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 1: to the i m F view. Is it a global

644
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: lift to the economic system. Now, what we've said for

645
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 1: the global economy is that, for the first time in

646
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 1: quite a few years, were not revising down our forecast.

647
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 1: Our forecast says that growth in the global economy is

648
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 1: going to be picking up. It was three point one

649
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 1: last year. We're looking at three point four this year,

650
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: three point six next year. What has changed is that

651
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:36,240
Speaker 1: we're seeing somewhat more rapid growth in the United States.

652
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: And that's partly because the United States has been strengthening,

653
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 1: but also because we're presuming that the budgetary policies of

654
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 1: the incoming Trump administration will be supportive of the economy,

655
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:53,320
Speaker 1: with some tax cuts, some spending increases, and some efforts

656
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 1: to boost infrastructure. David Litton, given what we've seen here

657
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 1: over the last eighteen months, say, does the IMF have

658
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 1: to change the way it makes the case for multilateralism?

659
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 1: Does the IMF and concert with other multi lateral institutions

660
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: have to change the way it's making that case. I

661
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 1: think that's pretty important, you know. I think we've been

662
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: on this, uh, this on this case for a year

663
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,720
Speaker 1: a year and a half. It's clear that there's rising

664
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: discontent with the globalization of trade and with migration. UH.

665
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 1: Some of it comes from the fact that there are

666
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:28,279
Speaker 1: winners and losers in trade UH and with migration. Some

667
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: of it comes, I think from the difficulty people have

668
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 1: of they know that something's hurting them, but it's very

669
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 1: hard to sort out whether it's the aftermath of the

670
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: global financial crisis and the sluggishness in the economy that resulted,

671
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 1: whether it's technological change that replacing people with machinery, or

672
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 1: whether it's globalization. I think we need to do two things.

673
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 1: We need to try to help diagnose what's really going on.

674
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: It's important, for example, if if really most of the

675
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 1: problem comes from technological change, interfering with the globalization of

676
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 1: trade is clearly not an answer how much of that. Secondly,

677
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: the other point that I wanted to make is that

678
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 1: we need to help countries find ways to deal with

679
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 1: those who are adversely affected. We need to stress both

680
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: uh global growth and dealing with the negative side effects

681
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 1: of interconnectedness and efforts to blust growth. How much of

682
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 1: the problem here is definitional. A few weeks ago we

683
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: had that your colleague Christine Legard at Bloomberg, and she

684
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 1: spoke about the threat of deglobalization. We hear a lot

685
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 1: about the prospects for deglobalization post globalization. The people not

686
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 1: understand have trouble understanding what globalization is, and could institutions

687
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: like yours do a better job of explaining that. I

688
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 1: think that's a fair point. Um. Globalization is changing. Uh

689
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 1: you know, we've we've seen a huge rise in what

690
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: fraction of a country's output is dedicated to trade. It's

691
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 1: that's doubled in the course of my professional lifetime. But

692
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 1: interconnectedness has really changed because of the creation of global

693
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 1: supply chains where uh you know, uh, some part may

694
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 1: be made in Mexico, come back to the United States,

695
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 1: get improved, get shipped back to Mexico. It can go

696
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 1: back and forth several times, where much of what's produced

697
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 1: by Germany may have started emanated in a supply chain

698
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 1: in Poland or elsewhere in Central Europe. I think the

699
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 1: interconnectedness that we see now is so deep it's unlikely

700
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:33,800
Speaker 1: really to be unwound. The question is whether people whether

701
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 1: we can find ways to take care of people who

702
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 1: are hurt when economic change is disruptive and try to

703
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 1: protect the beneficial parts of globalization. This interconnectedness has really

704
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: helped a lot of people achieve higher living standards. The

705
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 1: great fortune of speaking with that Jack lou the outgoing

706
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: Treachery Secretary a couple of times now, and he always

707
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 1: talked about a three prown approach about fiscal policy, monetary policy,

708
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 1: and structural reforms. Which of those is is the hardest cell?

709
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 1: Is its structural reforms? And how do you how do

710
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 1: you make that case? Uh, two countries? How do you

711
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 1: make that case to people that it is important? You know,

712
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 1: I'll give you a funny answer, which is that ideologically

713
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 1: it's hardest to get people to agree to some sort

714
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:21,760
Speaker 1: of budget stimulus because there's a lot of ideological objection

715
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 1: to that. Everyone agrees structural reform is good, but it

716
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 1: doesn't happen, not because they're ideological objections, but because it's

717
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 1: politically so complex. You know. We feel that with growth

718
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 1: still sluggish after so many years after the global financial crisis,

719
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 1: you just don't have the luxury of picking and choosing people.

720
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: Countries should be trying to find each and every lever

721
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 1: that can be used to be supportive. UH. Demand support

722
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: may help short run, UH, infrastructure will help medium and

723
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 1: long run. Structural change will help over over the longer run.

724
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,280
Speaker 1: I mean, we just don't have the luxury of choosing.

725
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 1: I don't want to get you in trouble. And they

726
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 1: claimed leguard time out chair, but I'm gonna ask anyways.

727
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 1: The other day, Mr Trump talked about we need a

728
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,720
Speaker 1: week dollar, and everybody in the racket killed over because

729
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 1: what you're supposed to say is we want a strong

730
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 1: dollar and a strong dollar policy. I know we're not

731
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 1: near a Plaza Cord dynamic or a Reuben dollar of

732
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 1: the late nineties into two thousand two. But where are

733
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 1: we with the US dollar is did you start to

734
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 1: stayings exorbitant privilege? Where where are we within the dollar

735
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: is the dominant feature of how we measure all. Our

736
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: view at the I m F has been that the

737
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 1: world works best when exchange rates are determined by market

738
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 1: forces and stay in line with fundamentals. And you know,

739
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 1: we've seen some increase in the value of the dollar

740
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 1: to the extent that that is validated by policies that

741
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 1: strengthened Erica's fundamentals. It's not a problem for America, it's

742
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: not a problem for the world. If the US is UH,

743
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 1: you know, demanding more UH, it makes sense that the

744
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 1: dollar is UH is somewhat somewhat stronger. But I think

745
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 1: it is important that countries around the world maintain exchange

746
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 1: rate flexibility. You'll not recall the problem that arose in

747
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 1: the Asian financial crisis setting where countries were pegged to

748
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 1: the dollar, and while a dollar a strong dollar was

749
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: good for America, if I'm good for Thailand. Should point

750
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 1: out you're on the watch there in Washington at the time.

751
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 1: Are we near a mercantile is um? When we hear

752
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 1: all the rhetoric can heat? Is it a zero sum America?

753
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 1: And are you gonna have a you know, when you're

754
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 1: blue book in April? Are you gonna have a little

755
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 1: box down there on neo mercantilism? Is that what the

756
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 1: PhD is at the I m for thinking about right now.

757
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 1: I do think we need to separate two subjects, and

758
00:44:55,080 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: I hope these can be separated. Uh as the administration begins,

759
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 1: uh the United you know, hearing here at Davos, some

760
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 1: of the businessmen who are close to the incoming administration

761
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:12,600
Speaker 1: and who in some measures say they speak for it.

762
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 1: They say that America set up the rules of the game.

763
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:20,720
Speaker 1: Played by the rules, other countries took advantage. The playing

764
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:25,840
Speaker 1: field has not been level it needs to be leveled again.

765
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 1: And that that's that's one aspect well and clearly one

766
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 1: aspect of what the incoming administration aims to address. That

767
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 1: is a very different subject from the question of whether

768
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: there should be continued close UH trade ties, whether the

769
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 1: interconnectedness UH should continue. Surely when half of the world

770
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 1: is emerging market and developing countries, and those countries are

771
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 1: providing of the growth in the global economy, those are

772
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 1: America's ex work markets, and when they're large, when if

773
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 1: they get larger, they are larger export markets. And if

774
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 1: they don't grow as much, they're not so good. So

775
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 1: I'm hoping that the administration can distinguish as it develops

776
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 1: its policy between an effort to try to deal with

777
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 1: what they view as undesirable or abusive policies and separate

778
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: that from the question of interconnectedness and globalization. David Lipton,

779
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Look forward to seeing it with

780
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 1: the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund. Mr Lipton

781
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 1: is the first Deputy Managing Director f the i m F.

782
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:51,279
Speaker 1: David grein New York on time Keenan Davos and now

783
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 1: a moment with John Stezinski of Morgan Stanley hs B,

784
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: seeing of course his work with Blackstone, but far more

785
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 1: than his perspective in migrating often between New York and

786
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 1: London and across Europe's service in philanthropy has been noted

787
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 1: uh by those in America, by the Queen in England,

788
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 1: and of course his service to his Catholic church as

789
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:17,920
Speaker 1: well with the Pope in Rome. John, you are the

790
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:21,240
Speaker 1: most qualified person to speak on the scope and scale

791
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 1: of what we are hearing too often in the recent

792
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: weeks was as not direct affronts, but an allusion to

793
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 1: a nineteen twenties industrial policy of Italy, and even a

794
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:38,839
Speaker 1: selected group of our interviewees speaking of a fascism light

795
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 1: a neo fascism framed for us, this polarized moment that

796
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:51,439
Speaker 1: we're in around those fiery words of another time and place. Well,

797
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 1: I think you're making a very important um reference to history, um.

798
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 1: And and clearly in the context of the world order today,

799
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 1: or perhaps the world disorder today, as some people might

800
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 1: like to say, we have the a new set of

801
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 1: powerful personalities who have really evolved quite formidably in the

802
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 1: last fifteen months. Um. You've got Abbe Si and Mody

803
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 1: and do Terte in Asia. You've got generally see and

804
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:32,319
Speaker 1: Urdwan and Putin in Russia and the Mid East, and

805
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 1: you now have Donald Trump, all of whom are very

806
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: much strong personalities, strong leaders responding to domestic UH, populist

807
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:50,279
Speaker 1: um sentiment, nationalism, similar to what you reference with UM

808
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 1: these other characters in the twenties and thirties in Europe.

809
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 1: But I think it's also important to say there's a

810
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 1: new geopolitical order, what I call power, a more powerful

811
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: set of players that have evolved or will evolve following

812
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: the inauguration of President Trump in the world stage over

813
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 1: the next um, the next couple of years. And you've

814
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:20,760
Speaker 1: seen the beginning Benis of that with obviously the theater

815
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:25,359
Speaker 1: UH and the statement of President she here at Davos

816
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 1: opening the forum and giving what I thought was a

817
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:33,240
Speaker 1: very thorough speech sixty minutes speech on globalization that candidly

818
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 1: could have been given by President Obama. Speaking of theater,

819
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 1: are you worried that there isn't enough room on that

820
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: world stage for so many powerful personalities? As you say,

821
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:48,399
Speaker 1: I think if we had all the personalities that I've

822
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 1: cited on the stage at once, UM, we would probably

823
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 1: have to go to Yankee Stadium or something. UM. I think,

824
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 1: what's the most important thing? Can we have a guy

825
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 1: from Bowden talk about yank Stadium? They would all go

826
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:05,800
Speaker 1: to Fenway. I love Fenway Park and Boston Red Sox

827
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 1: are still alive and well, so we continue to support them.

828
00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 1: But remember we have the New England Patriots and they're

829
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 1: doing extremely well. Less forget UM, but I think one

830
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:18,320
Speaker 1: of the things we noticed here in Davos, and it

831
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 1: says I was just just came out of a meeting

832
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:25,240
Speaker 1: with Ursula van Dervey and who's the defense minister in Germany,

833
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 1: and I had lunch listening to Queen Ranya talking about

834
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 1: the refugees from Syria in Jordan's. Davos gives you the

835
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 1: chance to meet people one on one. It gets to

836
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 1: deal with the human dynamic. And I think as long

837
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:46,919
Speaker 1: as this group of very powerful personalities takes the time

838
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 1: to meet one on one and understands each other and listens,

839
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:53,400
Speaker 1: you know, Klaus Schwab is telling us about responsible and

840
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 1: responsive leadership. I think a good part of leadership today

841
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 1: is not just being on broadcast UM, but actually being

842
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:06,879
Speaker 1: on listening mode and good leaders uh. I learned early

843
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 1: on in my career Morgan Stanley, of what you need

844
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 1: to know to be a good leader and a good advisor,

845
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 1: you'll figure out by keeping your mouth shut and listening. Tom,

846
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 1: and I think We're in a mode now where leadership

847
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 1: is going to require a lot of listeners. So you

848
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 1: always said that, David, he said time shut up Davids,

849
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 1: the next question, please, I didn't say times, so, but

850
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 1: because I think there's some projection here jumping chat. I

851
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 1: don't want to make you the spokesperson for Fort Klashwab,

852
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 1: but I am curious here there There has been so

853
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:39,360
Speaker 1: much criticism of Davas this year, in particular this gathering

854
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 1: that some have said is out of touch with the

855
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 1: feeling in the world, the populist sentiment that we're seeing

856
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 1: around the world. Help us bridge that gap? Then, what

857
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:50,760
Speaker 1: what could the rest of the world learn from Davas.

858
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 1: You mentioned the robustness of the conversation, the opportunity to

859
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 1: talk with people about issues, engage with them on issues

860
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:58,839
Speaker 1: of real importance. Are there themes here that you think

861
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 1: are easily translatable? Well, you're making a very important point,

862
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 1: and I think it's important to make the distinction. We've

863
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,920
Speaker 1: sat in meetings today and yesterday where people said, no

864
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 1: one foresaw um breggsit, no one foresaw the Trump victory,

865
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 1: no one foresaw the rise of populism. Twelve months ago

866
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 1: at Davos, and I think, UM, it stems from the

867
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 1: fact that there are a couple of things going on here. One,

868
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:25,719
Speaker 1: this is the one percent of the one percent of

869
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 1: the one percent talking to itself. Um, there's no one

870
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:34,800
Speaker 1: represented among the number two. Claus has created this great

871
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 1: Youth Leaders Young Global Leaders group, and I think we

872
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 1: need to see more of them. They're very bright young people.

873
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:44,400
Speaker 1: But if you look at the power of the Internet

874
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 1: today and power of social media, these people are creating

875
00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 1: their own fantasy worlds on social media, and then they're

876
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:53,240
Speaker 1: the ones who lose hope and are disappointed when they

877
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:56,880
Speaker 1: they're not employed. And there's a high degree of youth unemployment.

878
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,319
Speaker 1: There's a high degree of frustration with a lack of

879
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:02,279
Speaker 1: spirituality in the world. More people are in fact finding God,

880
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of things going on. So having

881
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:07,799
Speaker 1: more youth in the room here in Davos, I think

882
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:11,279
Speaker 1: would make um a big difference. I'm greatly honored to

883
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:13,960
Speaker 1: ask you this question. There is, without question, no one,

884
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 1: no one. It appears on Bloomberg surveillance. Who puts money

885
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: with mouth is and feeds the homeless? What have you

886
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 1: learned and how do we feed those so disadvantaged that

887
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:28,799
Speaker 1: they are desperate for the next meal. What is the

888
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 1: tactical or logistical reality of feeding the homeless? Well, you know,

889
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 1: it's interesting, it Tom, It's a very good question, and

890
00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:43,080
Speaker 1: bravo to you for asking it, because it's not asked enough.

891
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 1: Because what you're really asking is what is it that

892
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 1: feeds um human dignity? Uh and the core of self esteem?

893
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:55,240
Speaker 1: And actually, what's happened a lot. You heard Joe Biden's

894
00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:59,319
Speaker 1: speech earlier today where he used the term human dignity,

895
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 1: which really comes from his strong Catholic upbringing. Um, and

896
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 1: I was really proud of the fact that there's a

897
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:10,880
Speaker 1: man who's not afraid to be very comfortable in his

898
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 1: Catholic skin. So to your point about you've got to

899
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 1: be very focused on the human condition and making sure

900
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 1: it's like we were talking about the Syrian refugees today,

901
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:23,880
Speaker 1: they're very proud. These refugees don't like taking handouts of

902
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 1: food and accommodation. We're just trying to survive. But part

903
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: of feeding the homeless is you've got to be prepared

904
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 1: to give yourself not just time and money, but you've

905
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:35,880
Speaker 1: got to be prepared to listen. Okay, We're gonna have

906
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:38,440
Speaker 1: to leave it there, Johnson, thank you so much more.

907
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

908
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 1: listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform

909
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm out on Twitter at Tom Keene. David

910
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,880
Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura uh. Before the podcast, you

911
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio, brought you

912
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:21,919
Speaker 1: by Bank of America Mary Lynch. Dedicated to bringing our

913
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 1: clients insights and solutions to meet the challenges of a

914
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 1: transforming world. That's the power of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce,

915
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 1: Fenner and Smith Incorporated, Member s I p C.