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Speaker 1: What two three Brits.

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Speaker 2: In the middle of the family.

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Speaker 1: Hellos football down in the one yard line?

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Speaker 3: How about that?

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Speaker 1: That is the ultimate kabash and we are underway. Hello everyone,

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Action Network NFL podcast. It is

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Speaker 1: the week fourteen Friday show. I am Matthew Friedman, the

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Speaker 1: editor in chief of Fantasy Labs in joining me to

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Speaker 1: break down all of the games coming up this week.

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Speaker 1: And is Chris Raybond, a senior editor and analyst at

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Speaker 1: the Action Network and a co host. If I will

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Speaker 1: take that bet on ESPN Plus. You can follow him

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Speaker 1: in the Action Network app at Chris Raybon. Chris, I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you know this, but it is the

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Speaker 1: season forgiving, and with that in mind, we want to

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Speaker 1: give away some free Action Network subscriptions to listeners. If you,

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Speaker 1: the listener, want a shot at a free subscription, you

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Speaker 1: have to do three simple things. One follow Chris and

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Speaker 1: me as well as our co host Peter Jenny and

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Speaker 1: Seawan Corner and Ian Harditz in the Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: Two rate interview the podcast on iTunes, and then three

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Speaker 1: send screenshot evidence of the follows in review to podcasts

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Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com. That is the plural podcast at

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Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com and listen to future shows to hear

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Speaker 1: if you are the lucky recipient. Okay, Chris, you did

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Speaker 1: the Monday show with Ian I did the Wednesday show

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Speaker 1: with Pete and Odds Banker, and Renee Miller was the guest.

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Speaker 1: She was great to be sure to give that episode

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Speaker 1: a listen on the Action Network NFL podcast. Let's jump

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Speaker 1: into it, and let's start as we always do with

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Speaker 1: the first and five segment. We're going to break down

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Speaker 1: the five games that right now are getting the most

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Speaker 1: action in the Action Network app, the games that have

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Speaker 1: the highest ticketcounts, and we're starting with Ravens at Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: What you don't have, No, we don't have a tally,

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Speaker 4: Like what's our record on the you you gotta start

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Speaker 4: out with the time.

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Speaker 2: We're just we just go right from the free sub.

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Speaker 1: No, Yes, we're going, Yes, come on, I know them

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Speaker 1: off I might be you probably are up.

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Speaker 4: I haven't.

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Speaker 1: Honestly, I stopped treating like keeping track because it didn't

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Speaker 1: seem because there was like the one week when you

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Speaker 1: were on during Thanksgiving and then like I don't know,

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Speaker 1: I just I forgot to keep track and then I

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Speaker 1: just stopped. I forfeit if you want, I know, I.

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Speaker 2: Mean, I just want, I mean, you know, I'd want

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Speaker 2: to see my own results too.

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Speaker 4: But now, well, I'm sure the listeners will, uh, we'll

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Speaker 4: have an idea of of what's been going on. But fine,

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Speaker 4: we'll start a new This will be the holiday the

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Speaker 4: final holiday run, the playoff run.

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Speaker 1: Okay, okay, all right, alright right. Ravens at Chiefs. Chiefs

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Speaker 1: favored by six and a half a fifty three point

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Speaker 1: over under. The spread is down from nine. Uh. The

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Speaker 1: Ravens are on the positive side reverse line movement. The

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Speaker 1: Ravens have won three games in a row with Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson at quarterback. The Chiefs are still slotted into the

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Speaker 1: number one seed in the a S. Chris, what are

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Speaker 1: your thoughts on this game?

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Speaker 4: So this is this is one of those games where

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Speaker 4: you have a really good offense going against a really

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Speaker 4: good defense in the Baltimore Ravens. I think if you're

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Speaker 4: looking to bet this game, where I'm going is the

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Speaker 4: under fifty three. And that's because the first thing I

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Speaker 4: like to do in these situations is look at similar

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Speaker 4: kind of matchups. So if you look at you know,

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Speaker 4: for the Kansas City Chiefs. They played the Jacksonville Jaguars,

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Speaker 4: another team with a pretty good defense when it wants

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Speaker 4: to be, as we saw last week, but not always.

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Speaker 4: But Kansas City won that game thirty to fourteen, so

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Speaker 4: that was a forty four point total. Kansas City also

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Speaker 4: played Denver twice. Denver one of the top defenses in

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Speaker 4: the league as well, and you know, both of those games,

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Speaker 4: so twenty seven to twenty three KC. That was a

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Speaker 4: fifty and then thirty twenty three KC, so that was

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Speaker 4: fifty three.

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Speaker 2: So that's where the over under is at right now.

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Speaker 4: And then you even look at Baltimore last week, you know,

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Speaker 4: going against a team like the Atlanta Falcons, who, especially

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Speaker 4: at home, had been putting up I think coming into

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Speaker 4: that game was three points per game at home, and

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Speaker 4: that was another game that went well under the totals.

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Speaker 2: So I'm liking the under in this game.

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Speaker 4: I think that, you know, without Kareem Hunt, the one

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Speaker 4: thing that that he kind of brought that Spencer ware,

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Speaker 4: and and you know, all the guys that they're going

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Speaker 4: to replace Hunt with don't bring quite as much as

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Speaker 4: that explosiveness. You know, Hunt was hurtling defenders, he was

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Speaker 4: really creating.

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Speaker 2: A lot of explosive plays. I don't think that will

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Speaker 2: quite be there.

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Speaker 4: And just in general, I think with Baltimore running the

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Speaker 4: way they have, you know, they're running forty eight point

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Speaker 4: three times per game over the last three games with

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Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson compared to twenty three point three passes per game.

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Speaker 2: Now, usually when you have a lot of runs, and.

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Speaker 4: Especially if you expect the team to be successful running

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Speaker 4: the ball, which I do expect Baltimore because they casey

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Speaker 4: is the worst team in the league at defending the

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Speaker 4: run per DVOA from football outsiders. But it's a situation

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Speaker 4: where it's like, usually you expect the run to kind

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Speaker 4: of set up the pass and that's why you know

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Speaker 4: the totals go higher. But in this game Baltimore, I

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Speaker 4: think it's just gonna keep on running and running and running.

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Speaker 4: I think you're gonna see less time of possession then

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Speaker 4: you're used to for Patrick Mahomes and these guys, and

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Speaker 4: you know, just not really confident that this game is

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Speaker 4: going to quite make it over that total.

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Speaker 2: So that's where I'm going with this one.

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Speaker 4: I think the spread is interesting because it's like it's

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Speaker 4: been hovering between seven point five and six point five.

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Speaker 2: I think seven is probably the right number.

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Speaker 4: But you know, I don't pretend to be able to

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Speaker 4: kind of decipher what you know, you know, within those

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Speaker 4: kind of especially around that key number when it's that close.

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Speaker 4: I don't really I don't really feel that comfortable, you know,

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Speaker 4: betting either side. I think I would go Casey with

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Speaker 4: it at six point five, but Baltimore at seven point five.

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Speaker 4: So I'm staying away from that, rolling on with the

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Speaker 4: under here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'm kind of conflicted on this one. So

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Speaker 1: my my bold call on the Wednesday show was that

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Speaker 1: the Ravens would win this one outright. So I feel

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Speaker 1: like I locked myself in by trying to be bold.

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Speaker 1: I locked myself into like going on the Baltimore side

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Speaker 1: of this one. Thing it's interesting is that if you

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Speaker 1: look in the matchup manifesto that Ian publishes each week

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Speaker 1: at the Action Network, there are two games this week

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Speaker 1: that have two teams facing each other that play with

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Speaker 1: a top ten situation neutral pace. One of those games

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Speaker 1: is Ravens at Chiefs, and then the other game is

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Speaker 1: Colton Texans. And so I hate taking the under on

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Speaker 1: games with teams that tend to play fast because I

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Speaker 1: feel like I'm just you know what I mean, Like,

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Speaker 1: I'm just kind of exposing myself to the possibility of

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Speaker 1: teams maybe just being more efficient and then if they

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Speaker 1: continue to play at that fast pace, they could hit

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Speaker 1: the over. So I understand the logic for the under,

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Speaker 1: but I think I'm going to stay away from it.

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Speaker 1: But I'm going to go with Baltimore over twenty two

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Speaker 1: and a half points for the team total. It's based

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Speaker 1: a lot on the logic of what you've pointed out

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Speaker 1: of the Chiefs being very weak against the run, and

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to be something that the Ravens

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Speaker 1: are going to be able to do against them very well.

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Speaker 1: And even though they are running a very root of

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Speaker 1: men offense, there's still like decently scoring points with it.

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Speaker 1: Even if some of it is like set up with

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Speaker 1: like you know, short filled position or whatever, like, They're

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Speaker 1: still able to score some points. And like, I think

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Speaker 1: they are going to have that urgency of needing to

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Speaker 1: score points against the Chiefs. So I'm going to take

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Speaker 1: the over. But like, I don't have a strong lean

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Speaker 1: on this game either way.

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Speaker 4: I think the one thing that's interesting is that you know,

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Speaker 4: you mentioned like Baltimore. Like the fast pace, I think

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Speaker 4: it's it's such a it's such an outlier.

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Speaker 2: Baltimore in general is just such an outlier.

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Speaker 4: It's really hard to kind of handicap this because it's

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Speaker 4: like in theory, yeah, like the fast pace you know,

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Speaker 4: helps all this, but it's like Baltimore is essentially speeding

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Speaker 4: up to run, which keeps the cot going anyway. So

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Speaker 4: it's like it's just such an outlier.

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Speaker 2: But I do feel you.

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Speaker 4: But one thing you always like to bring up is

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Speaker 4: that you know, when when you're in Arrowhead, you know,

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs tend to play better on defense.

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Speaker 2: That's been the case throughout the Andy RAI.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so you know the under in in the Andy

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Speaker 4: era for the in Arrowhead is twenty nine fifteen and one.

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Speaker 2: That's a six.

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Speaker 1: It's the best home under in the league. I don't

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Speaker 1: know why I'm not taking the home and it's.

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Speaker 2: Three one in one this season.

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Speaker 4: So I mean, like I'm with you, like it's it's

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Speaker 4: really difficult to kind of handicap this game and say

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Speaker 4: confidently like Chiefs, you know, plus seven or I mean

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Speaker 4: plus six point five or Ravens you know whatever, you know,

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Speaker 4: plus seven point five but yeah, I think for me,

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Speaker 4: it's just I'm sticking with the under The one thing

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Speaker 4: I'm scared about. I think, like if you're betting on

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs, that I think you feel good about is

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Speaker 4: that again, like it didn't kind of happen with the Falcons.

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Speaker 4: But the Falcons are like, as Chad Milman always says,

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Speaker 4: like they're just heartbreakers, Like they break your ear over

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Speaker 4: and over. But I think the one thing with Baltimore

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Speaker 4: to be concerned about is that, like if the Chiefs

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Speaker 4: can get a lead in this game, it kind of

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Speaker 4: changes things because then the Chiefs can rush the passer,

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Speaker 4: then that run defense is not quite as important. Or

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Speaker 4: if the Baltimore keeps on running from behind, are they

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Speaker 4: gonna be able to catch up? Like that is that

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Speaker 4: going to be enough even with that runde events to

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Speaker 4: catch up? So I think like that's the only thing

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Speaker 4: reason like I probably kind of feel good about the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs at that number, but yeah, it's really tough.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the one thing is that even if

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson does run, he's basically been as efficient as

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Speaker 1: a runner as he has been as a passer. Like

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Speaker 1: it's you know, it's like this situation where it's almost

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Speaker 1: like a best case scenario for him, like to run

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Speaker 1: when the team is expecting him to pass, you know

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Speaker 1: what I mean. So uh yeah, we'll just well we'll see.

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Speaker 1: But I you're I think you're on the sharp side

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Speaker 1: of taking the under an arrowhead. That's just something that

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Speaker 1: you should almost be automatic. Okay. Next game Saints at Buccaneers.

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Speaker 1: Saints favored by nine, a fifty six point over under.

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Speaker 1: The spread is up from eight, the totals down from

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Speaker 1: fifty seven and a half. The Saints are coming off

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Speaker 1: a heartbreaking Thursday night football loss. The Bucks have won

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Speaker 1: two straight with Jameis Winston and the starting lineup. This

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Speaker 1: is a rematch of the Bucks forty eight to forty

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Speaker 1: Week one victory. Of course, Jameis Winston was not in

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Speaker 1: that game. This game being played in Tampa, there is

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Speaker 1: the possibility of pursuit petitions, so people should definitely be

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Speaker 1: sure to monitor that as game time approaches. Chris, what

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Speaker 1: are your thoughts with this game?

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Speaker 2: So this game.

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Speaker 4: Really reminiscent of I think the Saints Cowboys game last

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Speaker 4: week where it was.

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Speaker 2: You just felt like the total was a little bit high.

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Speaker 4: I think that this is a situation where you're late

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Speaker 4: in the year and you know, there's these teams have

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Speaker 4: kind of put all these stats on paper, but some

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Speaker 4: of them, like from earlier in the year, aren't.

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Speaker 2: Quite as relevant.

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Speaker 4: So for example, Tampa Bay had this nine game stretch

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Speaker 4: after the Saints game in Week one where they turned

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Speaker 4: the ball over twenty nine times in nine games. Now,

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Speaker 4: you know, that created a lot of quarterback back and

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Speaker 4: forth and benchings and whatnot.

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Speaker 2: But the bottom line is that's a ridiculous outlier.

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Speaker 4: Like that's just hard to sustain no matter how bad

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Speaker 4: of a ball security type of team you are. So

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Speaker 4: that was an outlier that tends to drive upscoring turnovers

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Speaker 4: because it creates short fields. Sometimes they get returned for

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Speaker 4: touchdowns and there's not even you know, not much time

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Speaker 4: goes up the clock. So that's one thing that kind

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Speaker 4: of drove up totals in these in these Bucks games.

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Speaker 4: And then on the New Orleans side, you know, in

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Speaker 4: the first few weeks of the season and they didn't

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Speaker 4: have mark Ingram, they a lot more run heavy. So

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Speaker 4: once they got Ingram, once he came back, New Orleans

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Speaker 4: average is averaging thirty three and a half rushing attempts

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Speaker 4: per game and only twenty eight and a half passing

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Speaker 4: attempts per game. Now, they are efficient for the most

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Speaker 4: part running the football, but that's just going to create

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Speaker 4: a little bit more of you know, from the way

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Speaker 4: the Warrens plays, because they're alread efficient through the air.

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Speaker 4: They're going to be efficient through the air no matter what.

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Speaker 4: Just kind of limiting their pass attempts like that actually

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Speaker 4: does I think lower the totals in some of their games.

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Speaker 4: And you know, we kind of saw that play out

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Speaker 4: with the Cowboys game, and so I think you have

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Speaker 4: a situation where this over under at fifty six still

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Speaker 4: a little bit too high. I see why it dropped

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Speaker 4: from fifty seven and a half where it came out.

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Speaker 4: If you go back to two thousand and five, when

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Speaker 4: two divisional opponents play in week eleven or later and

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Speaker 4: the totals above forty four, the under is uh one

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Speaker 4: sixty nine one, four and three.

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Speaker 2: So that's a sixty two percent hit rate, you know.

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Speaker 4: So you have all these kind of trends, there's also might,

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Speaker 4: like you said, there might be precipitation, might some wins.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going with the under here. It's my favorite bet.

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Speaker 4: I wrote it up in the Action Network Favorite Staff

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Speaker 4: Bets for this week. Uh Bucks Panthers over under was

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Speaker 4: my favorite under was my favorite under. The under in

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Speaker 4: that game last week was my favorite bet. And so

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Speaker 4: I'm going right back to the well here. I think

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Speaker 4: that I think that these just totally is inflated.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I can see the logic in that. And I

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Speaker 1: think that especially because New Orleans is involved in this game,

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Speaker 1: uh and you know, people see this high scoring offense,

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Speaker 1: they would maybe be interested in looking at the over.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I can go on the under,

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Speaker 1: just because because you have two defenses that I think

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Speaker 1: are pretty exploitable, and you have two offenses that are

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Speaker 1: really good at scoring points. And like if I took

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Speaker 1: the under and it would it went against me, I

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Speaker 1: think I would just look at that and be like,

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Speaker 1: how to I take the under? Like why did I

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Speaker 1: take the under? Even though, like I know that you

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Speaker 1: have two divisional opponents facing each other late in the season,

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Speaker 1: Like it's it's always sharp to take the under. And

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Speaker 1: this is like, even though we are on pace for

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Speaker 1: the highest scoring season in league history, unders are still

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Speaker 1: hitting more than overs, especially if you look after the

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Speaker 1: first month of the season, Unders are hitting, so like

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Speaker 1: it's it's sharp. I just I can't do it. But

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Speaker 1: one thing I can do is I feel and like

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Speaker 1: it's correlated, Like I can take the Bucks at plus

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Speaker 1: nine if scoring is low, that increases the odds that

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Speaker 1: the Bucks are going to cover. And you have eighty

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Speaker 1: one percent of the tickets eighty four percent of the

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Speaker 1: money on the spread backing the Saints. I think that's

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Speaker 1: too high for a few reasons. One because these are

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Speaker 1: teams that you know, are divisional opponents. They are familiar

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Speaker 1: with each other. And granted it was it was a

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Speaker 1: different time. You had Fitzpatrick playing in Week one, no

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Speaker 1: mark ingram, but the Bucks have already beat the Saints

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Speaker 1: once this season. Like, it's not inconceivable for the Bucks

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Speaker 1: to lose by only eight points in this game, especially

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Speaker 1: since they are at home. I'm going to take the Bucks.

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Speaker 1: I think they have enough offense to be able to cover,

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Speaker 1: so I'll do it.

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Speaker 4: This is a this is a fascinating kind of case

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Speaker 4: study of all the stuff we kind of preacheer an

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Speaker 4: action network in terms, you know, in terms of the

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Speaker 4: market based stuff, and you're kind of going against the public.

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Speaker 2: But then also, like all the biases that I think

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Speaker 2: Bales really.

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Speaker 4: Kind of brought to the forefront and a bunch of

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Speaker 4: his books earlier, you know, a few years ago. But

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Speaker 4: like like recency bias on it, because like so the Bucks,

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Speaker 4: their defense has played a lot better over these last

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Speaker 4: few games, aside from the Giants game, but they've allowed

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Speaker 4: six They allowed sixteen to Washington, then they gave up

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Speaker 4: to thirty eight to the Giants, then they allowed nine

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Speaker 4: to the forty nine Ers and seventeen to the Panthers. Right,

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Speaker 4: But it's interesting because when you look at it a

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Speaker 4: little deeper, it's like I mentioned that nine game scratchical

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Speaker 4: they return the ball over so much, so you know,

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Speaker 4: in that same time game stretch, I mean they were

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Speaker 4: giving up, they gave up you know, ridiculous amounts of

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Speaker 4: points on defense and almost every one of those games.

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Speaker 4: So in these last two games, they've only turned the

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Speaker 4: ball over on offense once and they've allowed twenty six

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Speaker 4: combined points.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, their defense has gotten six turnovers.

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Speaker 4: Right, So it's obvious like that the their offense and

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Speaker 4: defense work together, like their If their offense is not

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Speaker 4: turning the ball over, it's easier for them to play defense.

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Speaker 4: And then if they're getting turnovers, their offense is better.

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Speaker 4: But in this game, it's I don't think the Saints

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Speaker 4: like the Saints, like Drew Brees through what it's like

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Speaker 4: his third interception, I think it was of the season

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Speaker 4: last week. So like that's that's the only reason why

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Speaker 4: I'm staying with the total is like it's like it

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Speaker 4: could be a situation where we're we're kind of recently

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Speaker 4: biased because we just saw the Saints like come back

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Speaker 4: down to earth as we knew they had to eventually,

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Speaker 4: like they couldn't continue to sustain that kind of touchdown

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Speaker 4: efficiency through the air on like such a limited pass volume.

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Speaker 4: But now I almost worried that, like we're gonna underestimate,

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Speaker 4: like the Saints, that the Saints could just go in

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Speaker 4: here and smash it's totally and their defense is playing well,

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Speaker 4: Like yeah, so yeah, that's it's possible.

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Speaker 1: They're they're playing with extra rest, have more time to prepare.

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Speaker 1: It's I mean, yeah, if the Saints crush it wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be a surprise. Okay, next game here the Broncos at

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Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers. Broncos favored by four a forty

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Speaker 1: five point five over under the spread is down from

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Speaker 1: five and a half. The total is up from forty four.

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Speaker 1: The Broncos have won three straight games. They're fighting for

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Speaker 1: a sixth playoff spot. However, they are without some pretty

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Speaker 1: key players. They have lost cornerbackers Harris and recently wide

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Speaker 1: Receivermanuel Sanders. The forty nine Ers have lost three straight

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Speaker 1: games and are in the running for the number one

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Speaker 1: overall pick. Chris, what are you doing with this game?

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Speaker 2: I think you gotta go.

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Speaker 4: I think you got a vent on sant fran here

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Speaker 4: man like and this is not even This has nothing

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Speaker 4: to do with my prior disdain for Vance Joseph. I

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Speaker 4: say prior because I think he you know, he has

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Speaker 4: done a good job over these last few weeks getting some.

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Speaker 2: Key wins to get the team back in the playoff hunt.

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Speaker 4: But I think that there's just such a small margin

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Speaker 4: of victory, you know, between you know, winning and losing

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Speaker 4: in the NFL, especially when you're talking about two.

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Speaker 2: Non elite teams in Denver.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, we kind of underestimate it, or

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Speaker 4: maybe not us, but in general, I think it kind

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Speaker 4: of goes overlooked a little. Wait, when it's not like

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Speaker 4: a quarterback or a pass rusher or like, uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: a marquee marquee star player gets hurt or is out

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Speaker 4: of the game, it goes a little overlooked. But like

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Speaker 4: Emmanuel Sanders is a huge loss for this offense because

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Speaker 4: it almost reminds me of the of the Golden Tate

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Speaker 4: loss for Matthew Stafford, where you know, you know, it's

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Speaker 4: like everyone's kind of all right whatever like this, you know,

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Speaker 4: receivers aren't moving the lines, this and that. But in reality,

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Speaker 4: you know, Golden Tate was responsible for twenty seven percent

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Speaker 4: of Stafford's targets, and Emmanuel Sanders a similarly similarly, you know,

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Speaker 4: integral to this offense. You know, he's twenty three percent

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Speaker 4: target share. Really the only guy that can that can

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Speaker 4: get open here. So like without Sanders, without Chris Harris,

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Speaker 4: this is just like to me, like, uh, you know

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Speaker 4: a team that you know may may or may not

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Speaker 4: be well coached. I'm not you know, Jerry still out

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Speaker 4: with you know, poorly quarterbacks. You know, not really much

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Speaker 4: outside of Philip lindsay that that you can hang your

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Speaker 4: hat on in the pass rushers, which in a game

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Speaker 4: where I don't know if they're gonna need the pass rushers,

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Speaker 4: so like it's gonna it might not be.

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Speaker 2: That kind of game. So, like you know, on the road,

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Speaker 2: I'm not.

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Speaker 4: Like, I think it's a toss up. I think Denver

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Speaker 4: has the edge. I think Denver you would you would

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Speaker 4: say Denver should win this game. But on the road,

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Speaker 4: you know, plus four I got anything more than you know,

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Speaker 4: I would say, like a point to me is too much,

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Speaker 4: So I'm I'm just gonna go Sanrancisco. I think Sanrancisco

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Speaker 4: is well coached enough, and with with the two key

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Speaker 4: injuries for Denver, I just think the talent for these

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Speaker 4: two teams is a lot more equal than than it

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Speaker 4: would have been otherwise.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I hear you. You probably saw in this while

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Speaker 1: you were talking that I changed my pick. So I

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Speaker 1: this is what my original pick was, and then I

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Speaker 1: changed it. Now I'm changing it. I'm going opposite you.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to Denver, and I'm taking the fishy side

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Speaker 1: on this. I know like you're you're on the sharp.

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Speaker 1: I know that I don't care, obviously, which is why

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Speaker 1: I sucked at this game. But from a real perspective,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't touch this game. I just I don't feel

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Speaker 1: confident enough in it. But if I had to bet it,

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Speaker 1: there's no way I'm betting on the team that wants

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Speaker 1: to lose, and that is San Francisco. They are starting

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Speaker 1: their fifth string running back, their third string quarterback, and

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Speaker 1: they are as incentivized as any team could be not

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Speaker 1: to win. Okay, And then you have Philip Lindsay, who

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Speaker 1: I think pretty highly of. You have him on the

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Speaker 1: other side, Dashawn Hamilton. I know, like he didn't play

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Speaker 1: earlier in the year. He can't be Emmanuel Sanders, but

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Speaker 1: like he's a pretty polished guy, like for a rookie,

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Speaker 1: Like he's pretty polished. I think he's going to slot

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Speaker 1: in into am Manuel sanders old spot. Courtland Sutton is

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Speaker 1: going to be able to run routes against anyone else

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Speaker 1: besides Richard Sherman because Richard Truman doesn't move right. So

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Speaker 1: if they're smart, they will just line him up against

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Speaker 1: anyone else.

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Speaker 2: That's the question, Like if this was like.

435
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,480
Speaker 1: I know, but even even if they're stupid and they

436
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 1: put Sutton against against Richard Truman for some of the time,

437
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 1: like it doesn't even have to throw to him, like

438
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 1: is case ing, And then you have the defense right

439
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 1: like Denver's defense I think is pretty good. I trust

440
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:27,119
Speaker 1: them to be able to limit a third string quarterback

441
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 1: and a fifth string running back and a really uninspiring

442
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 1: group of wide receivers. So so then it's like, uh

443
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: is case Keenum on his side of the ball, Like

444
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: can he abuse this San Francisco defense? I think he

445
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 1: can do enough, given Sutton and given Lindsay. Really it's

446
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 1: it's given Lindsay. I think Lindsay could have a massive game.

447
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:51,639
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I'm with you one Lindsay. I think

448
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 2: Lindsay is their best hope of offense.

449
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 4: But like, I just don't see the like San Francisco

450
00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 4: with you know.

451
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 2: Nick Mullins or whoever. I just don't think this.

452
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 4: There's like such a separation between it seems to be

453
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 4: like to be laying points for for a road team,

454
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 4: Like I just I mean, these are big losses now

455
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 4: mostly all plays out Like I wouldn't be surprised if

456
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 4: if San Francisco got like demolished. But I mean I

457
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 4: wouldn't be surprised if Denver lost this game outready either,

458
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 4: like like straight up lost the game.

459
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 2: Which is why I think, which is why I'm betting

460
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:21,360
Speaker 2: San Francisco.

461
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't want to be I don't

462
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 1: want to be on Vance Joseph's side of this, but like,

463
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 1: there's no way I want to be on the side

464
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 1: of the team that has every motivation to lose. But

465
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:33,919
Speaker 1: you know, I forget who.

466
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 2: Was talking about this.

467
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 4: I think it was I don't know if it was

468
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 4: Jeff Schwartz over here at Action Network or who it was,

469
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 4: but I think I might have been him talking about tanking.

470
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 1: Though It's like, like players think differently, but.

471
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 4: Right, like you're not banking on the feet like they're

472
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,120
Speaker 4: tanking in the sense that like they are they have

473
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 4: a third string quarterback out there, they have a third

474
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 4: but like, but the players on that like this is

475
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 4: no like the players are still going to be playing hard.

476
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 2: And what I'm saying is like, with these.

477
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,679
Speaker 4: Players play hard, they're they're no worse than the team

478
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:06,239
Speaker 4: that the Broncos are fielding, except that pass rusher and

479
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 4: at like running back, which we know, like you know that.

480
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 1: That is a quarterback. At quarterback, they are, they are worse.

481
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 1: Say what you want about case Keenum, he is better

482
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: than a third string, undrafted second year guy making his

483
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 1: fourth career start.

484
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 2: I don't know about that.

485
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 4: Because all right, I'm not saying like let me not,

486
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 4: let me, let me not say, let me not, let

487
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 4: me not trash case keening like that. What I'm trying

488
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 4: to say is, uh Shanahan coached quarterback with a decent

489
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 4: O line in a game that shouldn't get out of

490
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 4: hand and put them in obvious, vulnerable situations all at home,

491
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,439
Speaker 4: like they're a lot more equal than you say.

492
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 2: That's what I'm trying to say, Like.

493
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: Who won this defense is going to stop Philip Lindsay.

494
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 4: I mean it's not a one man I don't know,

495
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 4: like it's not a one man like.

496
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 2: He's gonna but he gets off like he's been getting off.

497
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 4: To be fair, he's been getting off all year, like

498
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 4: in wins and losses like win, loss of draw, Philip

499
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 4: Lindsay has been going off. I mean he's been He's

500
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 4: been one of the most consistent fantasy players in the

501
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 4: league this year. So like yes, like yes, Philip Lindsay

502
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 4: is gonna have a huge game because they're gonna have

503
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 4: to feed him that. I would guess they get the

504
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 4: other backs more involved as well, because who you really

505
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 4: thrown to. But I'm just saying that there's such a

506
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 4: small margin with these with these teams and like on

507
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 4: the road, in this kind of situation where you lost,

508
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 4: essentially you're one of your top two players on defense

509
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:29,640
Speaker 4: and your best receiver.

510
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 1: Best receiver. Yeah is tough. Yeah, I feel it.

511
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 2: Let's see, let's see what happens.

512
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we're going to head to head on this,

513
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 1: so we will.

514
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 2: Say you better better get these results tally built. People

515
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 2: gonna want to know.

516
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: I'm highly motivated to do that. Yeah, all right. Colts

517
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: of Texans Texans favored by four and a half a

518
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: forty nine point five over under. The Colts are coming

519
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 1: off a loss.

520
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 2: Uh.

521
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 1: They won five games before that, including a twenty nine

522
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: to twenty six Week ten victory over the Jags, who

523
00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,680
Speaker 1: won last week but had lost seven straight games beforehand. Man,

524
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 1: I mean, what do you do with this game curse?

525
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, you know, you know how I

526
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 2: feel about the Texans. Uh.

527
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 4: I still think the Texans are very sneaky team in

528
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 4: the AFC because I think they have, you know, the

529
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 4: key key ingredients to pull an upset over one of

530
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 4: these other AFC teams in their house. So you know,

531
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 4: they have a quarterback that not only is just is

532
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 4: just an all around awesome quarterback. But when that also

533
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 4: has you know, the key attribute of being able to

534
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 4: move around and get out of pressure. And you know

535
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,679
Speaker 4: their offensive line is not very good, but he can

536
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:36,719
Speaker 4: mitigate that because he can move around if he if

537
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 4: he needs to. Then you have a receiver, like just

538
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 4: a top tier stud receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who, by the way,

539
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 4: seventy percent catch rate this year with him and Watson,

540
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 4: his previous career high doesn't even hit sixty unless you

541
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 4: round up, So you know they're on it.

542
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 2: They're they're doing it on another level.

543
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,400
Speaker 4: You know, even without will Fuller, you know Watson has

544
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 4: sustained his efficiency. It's on lower volume, so it might

545
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 4: go a little bit unnoticed, but you know his yards

546
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 4: per attempt is still up there. Hopkins efficiency is still

547
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 4: up there. And then you have on the other side,

548
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 4: you have a defense with Clowney Watt defense that's been

549
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 4: getting a better against the pass started out the year

550
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 4: is a pass funnel above average now against the past,

551
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 4: top three against the run.

552
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 2: So you know, I really like Houston. That being said,

553
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 2: in this game, at these like.

554
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 4: Spreads in the middle of field goal and touchdown or ones,

555
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 4: I don't really like to touch. I think that maybe

556
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 4: if the Coats don't play quite as badly last week,

557
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 4: the over under is a little bit higher right now,

558
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 4: it's at forty nine and a half. I think there's

559
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 4: some value there because last time these two teams played

560
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,640
Speaker 4: thirty seven thirty four Texans victory in overtime. You know,

561
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 4: the Texans are a team that I think are going

562
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 4: to be able to put up some points on the

563
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 4: Indianapolis Colts. You know, the Colts have given up only

564
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 4: sixteen and sixteen and a half points per game over

565
00:25:55,760 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 4: the last six games. But they say's Buffalo, Jacksonville twice, Miami, Tennessee, Oakland, right,

566
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 4: so not exactly a bunch of powerhouses. I think Houston

567
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 4: can can do some damage against the Colts defense. And

568
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 4: on the other side, I think, you know, the Colts,

569
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 4: you know, not playing Jacksonville, I think that they'll be

570
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 4: a little better. The game is, you know, in Houston,

571
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 4: it's not there's no real elements or anything involved in

572
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 4: this one. I think you'll see I think you see

573
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 4: them rebound. But I do think I do want to

574
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 4: kind of get your thoughts. I guess after talk about

575
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:23,639
Speaker 4: this game, just a little bit about Like I think

576
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 4: we talked a couple of weeks ago about the like

577
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 4: the division race, and you know, I think you feel

578
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 4: like the Colts are still the better team, so I

579
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 4: want to get your thoughts on that as well. It's like,

580
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 4: do you still feel that the Colts are like the

581
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 4: best team in this in this division or like what

582
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 4: do you how do you feel about the Texans.

583
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so I'm so what you mentioned there earlier

584
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: about value on the over potentially because Indianapolis really laid

585
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 1: an egg last week. I'm entirely with you there, and

586
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: I think that the value in the over is almost

587
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: entirely with the Colts, which is why I'm looking for

588
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,679
Speaker 1: the Colts at over twenty two and a half. But

589
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:03,959
Speaker 1: to the question of this division, I mean, I don't know.

590
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 1: I still don't look at the Texans and think that

591
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: they do any one thing well, Like I just I

592
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 1: don't know, Like I know that they're nine and three,

593
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,440
Speaker 1: so like tied with the Patriots amazingly, you know, like

594
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,439
Speaker 1: they are they are in the running to get the

595
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: number two seed. I just still don't look at them

596
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,360
Speaker 1: as a team that is that good.

597
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 4: Like, like what is it holding you back, cause like

598
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 4: all right, like is it Deshaun Watt, Because like Deshaun

599
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 4: Watson to me is like already one of the like

600
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 4: like I look at de Shawn Watson, one of the

601
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 4: few quarterbacks that like they could go into Arrowhead and

602
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 4: have a chance to beat the Chiefs because they have

603
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 4: DeShawn Watson and he can like be Patrick Mahomes for

604
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 4: a game.

605
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 2: Like he's not Patrick Mahomes every game. He doesn't have

606
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill.

607
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 4: He only has one guy like you know, but like

608
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 4: he can he can be that guy.

609
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 2: Like we saw it last year when their defense was horrible.

610
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: It's not to Sean a lot of it is just

611
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 1: like they've won close games and I think there's some

612
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 1: flukiness there that's fair. And you know, without will Fuller

613
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 1: to stretch the offense, I think they they are fairly limited,

614
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: you know how Like the Cowboys two years ago were

615
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 1: winning games and like at the end of the season,

616
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 1: it's like, oh, they're the number one seed and then

617
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 1: they I mean it's not as if they got.

618
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 4: Smashed by an amazing play by a future but.

619
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: It's just like but but then it's like the next

620
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 1: season they were like, uh, a pretty mediocre team.

621
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 2: Now the next season at those still the seas.

622
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 4: Like, all I'm saying is like the youth the Jaguars

623
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 4: went into Foxboro last year, if their offense not even

624
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 4: on Blake boards, if their offensive coordinator that doesn't like mind,

625
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 4: you know, mine screw himself out, you know, out of

626
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 4: that game by by.

627
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 2: By remembering that he has Blake Bortles, Like, they probably

628
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 2: win that game.

629
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 4: Like I think it was the Shaun's second start of

630
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 4: his career, and I think that game was without will Fuller,

631
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 4: if I'm not mistaken, they lost like three points to

632
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 4: the Patriots in foxboroughs Like I don't I get the

633
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 4: one score win thing. I think that's a sharp way

634
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 4: to look at it, because you know, one score wins

635
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 4: are you know, historically fifty to fifty.

636
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 2: You could go either way.

637
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 4: But I mean just from like the talent that this

638
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 4: team has, or at least the star the star power

639
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 4: that this team has, which you know is going to

640
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 4: come in to play in the playoffs. Like I think

641
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 4: this team on any given Sunday can beat any team in.

642
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 2: The league anything.

643
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: No, I don't, I don't think. I don't think that's true.

644
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 1: Like look at who they've played like that's not their fault,

645
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 1: Like I know that's not their fault, but still it

646
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:34,479
Speaker 1: still reflects on them. Like their wins are overtime against

647
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 1: the Colts by three, like that could have gone either way,

648
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys in overtime by three, that could have

649
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: gone either way. And then it's like graduation. You beat

650
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: the Bills, you beat the Jacks, you beat the Dolphins,

651
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: you beat the Broncos, you beat the Redskins in a

652
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 1: game in which like their quarterback broke his leg, You

653
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 1: beat the Titans, and you beat the Browns. But like

654
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: those are all like I think, basic non entity teams.

655
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 4: That's fair, But at the same time, one of the

656
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 4: common things about all of those teams that you also

657
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 4: mentioned are all those teams have also.

658
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: Been better than like you would think, you know what

659
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: I mean.

660
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 4: Like all those teams, like the Redskins, the Titans, like

661
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 4: all those teams, even the Bills, like they've all been

662
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 4: better than like what we thought or what we would

663
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 4: you know what I mean. So it's like, yes, I

664
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 4: get it, the Texans haven't been tested, but like their

665
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 4: talent is so high end that it's not like I

666
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 4: would expect them to all of a sudden come down

667
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:28,479
Speaker 4: to earth. It's like they've been lucky enough to have

668
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 4: a schedule that they can win and get a really

669
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 4: good playoff spot, which which helps them even more, which

670
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 4: helps their case even more when you talk about them

671
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 4: advancing far into the playoffs, because if they get a

672
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 4: home game or two, I mean that's you know, that's

673
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,719
Speaker 4: just that's more likely for them to win in advance.

674
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: I might be wrong on this, because I don't. I'm

675
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 1: not wrong on this. Not one of the teams, the Bills,

676
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: the Jags, the Dolphins, the Broncos, the Redskins, the Titans,

677
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: the Browns, not one of those teams is above five hundred.

678
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 4: They're not, but they're also all like they're all like

679
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 4: five hundred and better than he thought. Like they're better

680
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 4: than we thought they were, you know, like like the Redskins,

681
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 4: you look at them like, oh, they're not going to

682
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 4: be like the Titans, same thing, Bills, Like all those

683
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 4: teams are still like above expectations. So like whenever people

684
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 4: are like, oh the Texans have beatn these these bad teams,

685
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 4: like yes, they're not that great, but they're still better

686
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 4: than public perception, which means the Texans are likely better

687
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 4: than public perceptions.

688
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know.

689
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 4: I'm just saying, Deshaun wattson JJ Watt, Genevian Connie and

690
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 4: DeAndre Hopkins.

691
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 2: You can't you can't count that a team like that out.

692
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, So here's the thing. I just I don't

693
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: want to back the team that I think has won

694
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: nine games in a row in a really flukey way, like,

695
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 1: I don't I don't want to back that team. At

696
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 1: the same time, I don't really want to bet against

697
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 1: him because it's like, well, I'm gonna look like the

698
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 1: idiot when they win their tenth game in a row.

699
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 1: But I feel confident in the Colt's ability to score points.

700
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: So That's where I'm going we should But if I

701
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 1: had to choose a side, I would absolutely take the

702
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: Colts plus four and a half.

703
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: What did you make of them?

704
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 4: Kind of because I think we talked about this maybe

705
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks ago in the same conversation, but

706
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 4: like Andrew luck with that, with that, you know, like

707
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 4: unsustainable touchdown rate?

708
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 2: What do you make of that? You know? Going forward?

709
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 4: Is because like to me, it kind of looks like

710
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 4: a high ceiling, low floor situation where like we keep

711
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 4: thinking of we kept thinking of Andrew Luck's target depth,

712
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 4: and like it's to do with his shoulder, right, and

713
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 4: it's like, oh my god, like his yards for attempt

714
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 4: as well, because he started the year he wasn't thrown deep.

715
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 4: I'm starting to look at this and think it's it's

716
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 4: not as much to do just with his shoulder as

717
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 4: like his supporting cast is like historically bad, right, like

718
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 4: Eric Ebron. It's like, like, okay, why is he having

719
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 4: this amazing season in Indianapolis. Like it's not just because

720
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 4: Eric Ebron had this like rebirth, It's it's like by default.

721
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was That was entirely the investment thesis for

722
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: Ebron entering the season was that the team was so

723
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 1: bereft of wide receiver talent that they would basically need

724
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 1: to use him as a glorified wide receiver.

725
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 4: It's amazing because, like I looked up the numbers, and

726
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 4: so they have t Y Hilton who's averaging a five

727
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 4: year low in yards per catch fourteen point eight good

728
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 4: for normal receipt, not good for Ty, and then you

729
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 4: have Ebron at ten point nine yards per catch. There's

730
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 4: eight other players who have been targeted at least fifteen

731
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 4: times on the Colts. Besides those two guys, none of

732
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 4: them average even double digits yards per perception. So it's

733
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 4: like Luck's yards per average depth of target is like

734
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 4: seven point three. That's in line with Drew Brees like

735
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 4: all these other you know quarterbacks that have like high

736
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 4: yard per attempt figures. The real issue is that these

737
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 4: receivers haven't created anything to help out Luck. So like

738
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 4: did look like a really I think fascinating situation of

739
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 4: like how long can Luck play out of his mind?

740
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 4: Because I think everyone's gonna kind of pin it on

741
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 4: Luck if the offense starts to slow down, And in reality,

742
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 4: it's not even on look, it's on like Ryan Grant

743
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,719
Speaker 4: and like you realize that Dontrell inman, they picked him

744
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 4: up in like week five and he's like their number three.

745
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 4: Like that like that should tell you all you need

746
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 4: to know. Like Chester Rodgers was catching like nine ten

747
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 4: balls for them. This dude played like like like like

748
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 4: I don't even know if he got to like twenty

749
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 4: percent snap rate last week.

750
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 1: A guy named Zach Pascal doing team at some point. Yes,

751
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: it just they have a lot of just non entities

752
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 1: at the receiver position, and if you factor out the

753
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 1: first three weeks of the season when Luck was really

754
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: avoiding any downfill throws, if you factor those out, his

755
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 1: A dot from weeks four to now is very much

756
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 1: in line with what you saw out of him before

757
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 1: the shoulder injury. So I mean, I don't want to

758
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,359
Speaker 1: say that he's like totally back to himself, but like

759
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: we're not seeing something all that far from the Luck

760
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 1: that we saw pre injury. I think the big difference,

761
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, it's just the receiving talent.

762
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 4: Right, their number two and third down rate, But what

763
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 4: happens when you don't hit those third downs? You're just

764
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 4: going at such a like your yards for attempt a low,

765
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 4: so that means it takes you.

766
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 2: It's just harder to catch up.

767
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 4: And they're also number twenty seven on fourth down, so

768
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 4: like it just it's so illustrative of like what happens

769
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 4: if Luck doesn't play out of his mind, everything just

770
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 4: goes okay.

771
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 1: The fifth game, Panthers at Browns, Panthers evory by one

772
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: and a half points a forty seven over under. The

773
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 1: spread is up from a pick. The Panthers have lost

774
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 1: four straight games. The Browns are still relevant at four

775
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: seven and one, playing at home for the first time

776
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:12,919
Speaker 1: since Week ten. What are your thoughts here?

777
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 4: I mean, first of all, this is not just it's

778
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 4: not just our fifth game. This is the game that

779
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 4: you guys out there, the listeners, that they.

780
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 2: Chose as the fifth game.

781
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 4: So shout out to oh y'all, thank you for listening

782
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 4: all year. We're gonna try to keep doing these for

783
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 4: the rest of the season and going forward, just getting

784
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,720
Speaker 4: you guys more involved than in what we talk about

785
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 4: on here. So be sure to tweet Matt and I

786
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 4: an any suggestions or any feedback you guys have as

787
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 4: far as that goes, but as far as this game,

788
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,320
Speaker 4: So this is the game that you know, from a

789
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 4: narrative standpoint, some people think that that Ron Rivera has

790
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,240
Speaker 4: to win or he's gonna get fired. I don't personally

791
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 4: think that. I don't I wouldn't bet on Vera being

792
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 4: the next coach fired either way. I would still go

793
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 4: Todd Bowles.

794
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 2: But I mean, I'm in New York. I see it going.

795
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 2: It's just hard to find reason enough justifications to whatever.

796
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 4: That's a whole nother ging anyway, and this one the

797
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 4: first thing that's interesting is that there's two opposite kind

798
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 4: of funnel defenses situations going on. So the Panthers are

799
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:16,280
Speaker 4: number twenty eight in efficiency against the pass per Football

800
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 4: Outsiders DVOA, and they're number eight against the run.

801
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball.

802
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 4: On the other team, excuse me, you have Cleveland, they're

803
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 4: number four against the run. They're number four against the pass.

804
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 4: Excuse me, a number twenty six against the run. So

805
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 4: that's that's kind of interesting. Panthers. You know, you can

806
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 4: throw on them Browns, you can run on them.

807
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 2: I think that does favor well.

808
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 4: First of all, I think Baker Mayfield's played you know,

809
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 4: you know, kind of getting you Jackson out of there

810
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 4: is really kind of helped Baker Mayfield on One thing

811
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 4: I think that's really interesting with Mayfield is that, and

812
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 4: it's not been the greatest thing for fantasy, but he's

813
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 4: spreading the ball around a little more like their leader

814
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 4: in Justin Bailey of Fantasy Labs Action that Ork just

815
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:57,720
Speaker 4: tweeted out that, you know, like the targets rates since

816
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 4: Freddi Kitchens took over, and what you see is like

817
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 4: the top receiver for them, it's still Jarvis Landry, but

818
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 4: his target rate is down in like the low twenties

819
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 4: as opposed to it was like up near thirty previously,

820
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 4: so to spread the ball around a lot more. But

821
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 4: in this one, I still think Caroline is the better team.

822
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 4: I think that if there's ever kind of like a

823
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 4: narrative situation, I would kind of I would kind of

824
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 4: go with Carolina here.

825
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 2: I think they are kind of feeling desperate.

826
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 4: I think they are feeling like they need to they

827
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 4: need to get this one for.

828
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 2: Their head coach.

829
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 4: And the fact that Cleveland's weakness has been against the

830
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 4: run place right into Carolina's hands. Because of course you

831
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 4: have Cam Newton now, and I know he popped up

832
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 4: on an injury report, so maybe he doesn't want to

833
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 4: run quite as much in this game. But you still

834
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 4: have Christian McCaffery, who's been I think exceeded all expectations

835
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 4: when you consider the workload that he's received this season.

836
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 4: I mean he's playing, there's games where he doesn't he

837
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 4: barely comes off the field for a snap, so especially

838
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 4: when CJ.

839
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 2: Anderson has gone. So I think that this savors Carolina.

840
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: And then there's also some like some of the market

841
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 4: based stuff as well that save Carolina because they have

842
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 4: lost four games straight.

843
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 2: They have failed to cover in four game straight.

844
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 4: And John Ewing over at the Action Network, you know,

845
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:10,879
Speaker 4: he always does a great job, you know, unearthing these

846
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 4: trends for our betting guys, which are I always love

847
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 4: to read them, just as like a gut check on,

848
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 4: you know, try to get my biases out of here

849
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 4: and before I do a lot of things in fantasy

850
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 4: as well. But teams that have lost four games straight,

851
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 4: straight up and against the spread are forty nine thirty

852
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 4: two and one when they're on the road in their

853
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 4: next game against the spreads.

854
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 2: So that's a sixty one percent hit rate. And when

855
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 2: that when those teams are favored on the road, uh,

856
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 2: they've been eight and one against the spreads.

857
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 4: So there's a lot of things I think that kind

858
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 4: of favor Carolina. And also, as you probably will point

859
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 4: out as well, there there last three losses after that

860
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh blowout. We're by one score twenty nineteen against Detroit,

861
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,760
Speaker 4: thirty twenty seven in Seattle, and twenty four to seventeen

862
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:51,439
Speaker 4: to Tampa Bay.

863
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't know if I really have

864
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 1: much to add. I'm with you on the side of

865
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 1: Carolina one and a half. Yeah, those three last games.

866
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:00,879
Speaker 1: I mean, there was no way they were winning on

867
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football against the Steelers, Like once that game started,

868
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:07,760
Speaker 1: that wasn't close. But they're there are three games after

869
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: that they could have won all those games. Like, I

870
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 1: think they're better than a six and sixteam. Uh, And

871
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 1: I think the Browns are basically exactly what their record

872
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 1: says they are. You know, like they're they're around a

873
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: four to seven and one team. You know, like they

874
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 1: could they could put up a fight. You could see

875
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:25,399
Speaker 1: how they could win this game. But you know, one

876
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 1: and a half points, I think the Panthers are the

877
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 1: better team. You know, they're more incentivized, like not only

878
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: are they playing potentially for the head coach's job, but

879
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 1: like they they still have a shot at the playoffs.

880
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 1: You know, so I'm I'm going with them.

881
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:38,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.

882
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:40,800
Speaker 4: I mean, anytime you're looking out one one and a

883
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 4: half point spread, I mean I think if you like,

884
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 4: what's the probability of a team that's favored bout one

885
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 4: and a half winning like fifty three or something like that,

886
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 4: it's yeah, it's definitely a close game. But going back

887
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 4: to that Steelers loss that you knew they were gonna lose.

888
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:53,439
Speaker 2: Would you say that was because of a.

889
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 4: Certain number one receiver that was playing on the Steelers.

890
00:39:56,600 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 1: No, I would say once that game started like that,

891
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 1: like that wasn't a close game the way that the

892
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 1: others were close. And let's let's not even I mean,

893
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 1: if we want to have a conversation about Antonio Brown,

894
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: like I've been on too many pod probably about Antonio Brown,

895
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 1: but like I'll say it, I'll say it. I feel

896
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: we're not even in the Steelers section of the show.

897
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: But like I'll say, like I think I'm gonna be

898
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,280
Speaker 1: on the right side of that one. Likes as weird

899
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 1: as backwards as this sounds, that Antonio had like only

900
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty yards in a touchdown in the

901
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 1: smash spot of like thirteen targets home favorite, primetime non

902
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 1: divisional opponent like two years ago. That is a bigger game.

903
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 1: He's still having the least efficient season of his career,

904
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 1: and the thing is like he's probably gonna slay this week,

905
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 1: he's gonna slay the week after that. Like his closing

906
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:53,320
Speaker 1: schedule is ridiculous, So like I'm gonna end up looking

907
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 1: like a donkey, and maybe I was a donkey, but

908
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 1: like that doesn't change the fact that like this is

909
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,400
Speaker 1: like the canary in the coal mine, Like there's legitimate

910
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 1: danger here because like if at some point it's like

911
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 1: there's like a like a stool with like three legs

912
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 1: and one of those legs right now is really wobbly,

913
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 1: and that's his efficiency, and like at some point that

914
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 1: can impact his volume and his touchdown potential. So like

915
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: if at some point he starts to get fewer targets

916
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 1: and or fewer targets in the end zone or in

917
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: the red zone, like it's going to go like from

918
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 1: everyone thinking that Antonio Brown is the top receiver in

919
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 1: the league to everyone really quickly realizing he's maybe like

920
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: the eighteenth best guy, and like we're maybe a year

921
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:38,800
Speaker 1: away from that, you know what I'm saying.

922
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I do. I do know what you're saying.

923
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 2: I think we should talk about this.

924
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 4: If we have to go a little faster at some

925
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 4: other point in the show, so be it. But I

926
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 4: think it's an important conversation. I think it's an interesting one,

927
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 4: and I think it brings the light. Like, Okay, the

928
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 4: one thing I think I thought about when, like after

929
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 4: the fact, was that, like you're comparing kind of his

930
00:41:57,200 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 4: efficiency to others on the team, right, And one thing

931
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 4: I was thinking about that was like hmm, but now

932
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 4: that I think about it, like so like he his effect,

933
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,360
Speaker 4: it's kind of like the Tyreek Hill effect, right, Like right, uh,

934
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 4: what did Tyreek Hill do against the Raiders?

935
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 2: Like and like one one catch or something like that.

936
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 2: He didn't have a big stat line, but like they

937
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 2: put up forty points. Mahomes, you know, threw the ball well.

938
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 4: So it's like you almost can't compare his efficiency to

939
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,880
Speaker 4: like the others on his team because just his presence

940
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 4: in the lineup would probably jack up their efficiencies because

941
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 4: he's always got by default going.

942
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,879
Speaker 2: To be the double covered, triple covered guy.

943
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 4: So like by like by nature, his degree of difficulty

944
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 4: is already probably the highest in the league.

945
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,720
Speaker 2: But also so like yard per target and I've.

946
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 4: Just got me too, because it got me with it

947
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 4: got me with Corey Davis, where like I knew that

948
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 4: Corey Davis was like a talented receiver, but because he

949
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 4: had produced so many garbage yard per target games back

950
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 4: to back to back to back, I think I started

951
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 4: to think less of him like subconsciously, even though there

952
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 4: wasn't really any issue with him, and like yards per

953
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 4: target like as opposed to like yards per route and

954
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:06,880
Speaker 4: those they stabilized quicker, but yards per target I believe

955
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 4: it takes like two hundred and five targets to stabilize,

956
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 4: so like it could it could very well be like

957
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 4: noise or Big Bend because the Steers also pass a.

958
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:19,959
Speaker 1: Lot, right, So yeah, they more than any other team league.

959
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 4: So another another thought I had, like more of like

960
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 4: a Devil's advocate is like a wasted target to Antonio

961
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 4: Brown might be less wasted than the average NFL target

962
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 4: because number one, it's probably on average coming a little

963
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 4: earlier in the downs because Pittsburgh just passes so much,

964
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 4: so like they're more liable to pass on first down

965
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 4: and pass the second and still have another too, like

966
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 4: one down or two downs to make that up.

967
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 2: And then number two it's like a target.

968
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 4: An incomplete target to Antonio Brown still like kind of

969
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 4: has that same effect I was talking about before, where

970
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 4: it's still like you're you're showing the defense that you're

971
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 4: gonna target this guy covered open whatever and that and

972
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 4: then like Jujus Smith Schuster gets single coverage and he

973
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 4: could just run away from somebody. It was like justin

974
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 4: Hunters wide opening. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger, this is him,

975
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 4: Which is why I think there's there is definitely some

976
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 4: kind of like I think there's a lot of things

977
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 4: that play here. I think that obviously Antonio Brown at

978
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 4: this age is not going back to like you know.

979
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 2: Twenty fourteen Antonio, But I'm not. I'm just not sure that.

980
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 4: Like to me, he's still the best receiver in the league,

981
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 4: and I feel like to you, I don't think he

982
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:21,760
Speaker 4: is right.

983
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 1: Now, He's I think he's pretty clearly not the best

984
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 1: receiver in the league at this point. But how is

985
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 1: that clear?

986
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 4: Just because just because of efficiency, because like like I

987
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 4: feel like putting up like these kind of numbers with

988
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 4: this volume, like regardless of efficiently, Like I know, some

989
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 4: players are just forced at the ball and it's like

990
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 4: the Steers offense is like they're putting up points. You know,

991
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:45,760
Speaker 4: Big Ben's numbers are there, like do like the receivers

992
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 4: around him, like you said, are doing well probably because

993
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 4: of him, Like I don't think I haven't seen the

994
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 4: drop off to where I say that he isn't. I

995
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 4: don't think really anyone's changed their game that much this year.

996
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 4: I mean, if the one guy I would say that, like,

997
00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 4: if you want to make that argument would be would

998
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,439
Speaker 4: be DeAndre just because like he's got like a ten

999
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,719
Speaker 4: percent higher catch, right, He's catching seventy percent of his

1000
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 4: passes on nine five targets, as like the only guy

1001
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 4: here now, So like I could, I could see DeAndre,

1002
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 4: but like he doesn't have that quick twitch, Like he's

1003
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 4: just I don't know, it's just like I think I

1004
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 4: still gotta go Antonio.

1005
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 1: Okay, So I would say DeAndre has a real argument

1006
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 1: for being better. I think Odell Beckham has an argument

1007
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 1: for being better. This might sound blasphemous. I think Tyreek

1008
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 1: Hill has an argument at this point for being better.

1009
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 2: But see with Tyreek Hill, and you could make this

1010
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 2: argument to a like.

1011
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 4: To an extent with Aby Like okay, you could say

1012
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 4: Ben Roethlisberger, he's playing with the Hall of Fame future

1013
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 4: Hall of Fame quarterback. But like Tyreek Hill, when he

1014
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 4: really went to the next level and he was always

1015
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 4: like I called him a generational talent before this year

1016
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 4: even started. So like I'm with you that Tyreek Hill

1017
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 4: is probably better than the perception right a least he

1018
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 4: like he is than a former perception. But like Antonio

1019
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 4: Brown is just like without as much speed as Tyreek

1020
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 4: Hill like essentially does more on a more consistent basis.

1021
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 2: I mean, like this is kind of this is a

1022
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 2: little bit reminds me of like the point I was making.

1023
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 4: So I totally get you about Alshon Jeffery earlier this

1024
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 4: year when when it was like, yo, he had all

1025
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 4: these touchdowns and it was kind of masking the fact

1026
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 4: that he was very inefficient with last year with Carson Wentz.

1027
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 4: And now you're starting to see that play out. So

1028
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 4: I mean, like I said, like, I totally take this

1029
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 4: this seriously. I think it's something to think about. But

1030
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 4: like Antonio is scoring these touchdowns, but he's also catching

1031
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,279
Speaker 4: balls and putting up yards, you know, Like it's like

1032
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 4: and it's like he's.

1033
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,839
Speaker 1: It's not like it's inefficient. He is he is right now,

1034
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,959
Speaker 1: That's but that is the point. He is inefficient for him.

1035
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 1: I didn't even mention Julio Jones, right, Julio Legit might

1036
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 1: be better than Antonio Brown.

1037
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,800
Speaker 4: Nah, I like, honestly, so, and this is this is

1038
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 4: a whole other conversation. So I'm trying not to get

1039
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 4: two deep on a rabbit hole in this, But to me,

1040
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 4: Julio is always a level below all those guys because

1041
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 4: number one, it's like he has the and it's not

1042
00:46:57,160 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 4: his fault person, but he has the advantage of just

1043
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 4: this body type that's like unstoppable. But yet even with

1044
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 4: this body type he had, he can't he never really

1045
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 4: managed to be above average touchdown scorer, and like he.

1046
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,879
Speaker 2: Just never manages to really like have.

1047
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 4: The impact that that that he should considering the numbers

1048
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 4: that he puts. It's like, to me, always be know

1049
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:23,240
Speaker 4: how touchdowns are they are, but like they are fluky.

1050
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 4: I understand like the observing them as a rate statistic

1051
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 4: is fluky. I do understand that, but like that doesn't

1052
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 4: change the fact that, like over time, because like remember

1053
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 4: every statistic is gonna stabilize given enough sample size, right, So,

1054
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 4: like over time, Julio has kind of proven to be uh,

1055
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 4: this kind of lackadaisical touchdown score. It's not just like, Okay,

1056
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 4: he had a he had a really unlucky year this year,

1057
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 4: and he had an unlucky year. It's like this has

1058
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:51,359
Speaker 4: been a thing for years now to the point where

1059
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,359
Speaker 4: like there is some predictive ability within that his lower

1060
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 4: touchdown rate, just as there is in Antonio Brown's heights

1061
00:47:57,600 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 4: ands one so like to.

1062
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 1: Me, Yeah, but I don't know what So this is

1063
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 1: like from like a more like a real football perspective,

1064
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,360
Speaker 1: I don't know what the ability to score touchdowns, I

1065
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,880
Speaker 1: don't I don't know if that reflects as much as

1066
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 1: it as you think it does back onto the skill

1067
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 1: a player has, Like I think Julio Jones's ability from

1068
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:21,279
Speaker 1: his own goal line to let's say, like the opponent's

1069
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 1: ten yard line, Like, I think that is probably just

1070
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 1: as reflective of his ability as what he can do

1071
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 1: in the final ten yards. And I think in the

1072
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 1: first ninety yards he's better than Antonio Brown is I

1073
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 1: would disagree.

1074
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 4: I see, I get what you're saying, but I just

1075
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 4: think that there's other players, Like there's other ways to

1076
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:43,399
Speaker 4: kind of get those yards, and I do think those

1077
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 4: those last ten yards are really important because I mean, like,

1078
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 4: for example, I'll give you an example, like I believe

1079
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:53,880
Speaker 4: it was last season when we saw Antonio Brown no

1080
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,439
Speaker 4: actual well this season too, but we've seen Antonio Brown

1081
00:48:56,480 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 4: win games with touchdowns that many receivers don't score, like

1082
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 4: you know, like was it a game against Baltimore?

1083
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 2: Was it this year?

1084
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 4: Was it last year two years ago where he like

1085
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:06,879
Speaker 4: muscled his way on a second.

1086
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 2: Effort across the goal line? You know what I mean.

1087
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 2: Like it's like it's like touchdowns and make a difference.

1088
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:14,719
Speaker 4: I think more so for receivers than running backs, because

1089
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:16,359
Speaker 4: you know, running back to more right place, right time.

1090
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 4: But when we talk about a receiver's efficiency, that's just

1091
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,440
Speaker 4: not even just eighty anyone's Like it's really just like

1092
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 4: when we talk about running backs and yards for Carrie,

1093
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:26,720
Speaker 4: it's like yards for target is some mix of quarterback

1094
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 4: receiver anyway. So it's like when we talk about Antonio

1095
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 4: Browns efficiency, what we're really talking about is like the

1096
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:34,839
Speaker 4: Antonio Brown big Ben connection, just like when we talk

1097
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:35,880
Speaker 4: about Yeah.

1098
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:37,399
Speaker 2: So it's like that's why.

1099
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:38,919
Speaker 4: I can't like sit here and like say any there's

1100
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:42,959
Speaker 4: like any tangible, real like evidence of like any type

1101
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:46,319
Speaker 4: of like significant drop off other than like you know,

1102
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 4: big Ben is throwing more uncatchable balls to Antonio. You know,

1103
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 4: big Ben is kind of I mean, look at big

1104
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:55,880
Speaker 4: Ben's interception rate, Like you know, intercept completion percentage predicts

1105
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:58,799
Speaker 4: you know, interception rate better. So it's like big Ben's

1106
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,279
Speaker 4: throwing picks, so that means like he's also like he's

1107
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:04,440
Speaker 4: not necessarily always on target with the ball. I think

1108
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:06,320
Speaker 4: a lot of things are playing into it. So I

1109
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 4: don't know, I just don't.

1110
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:08,760
Speaker 1: I just mean I think I think things are playing

1111
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:10,840
Speaker 1: into it. So here's the thing. I think it's a

1112
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 1: conversation worth having. And before my article, no one was

1113
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 1: having it, right, Yeah, okay, and so and so there

1114
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:19,920
Speaker 1: are a few things I think to kind of put

1115
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 1: a bow on this, Like I agree that it's not

1116
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown's efficiency versus the efficiency of his teammates, Like

1117
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 1: you can't look at that just in the vacuum of

1118
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 1: what's happening this year. What I think is significant is

1119
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:38,399
Speaker 1: that his efficiency with Raethelsberger has gone down this year

1120
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:41,720
Speaker 1: relative to where it was last year, and everyone else

1121
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:44,840
Speaker 1: on the team their efficiency has gone up relative to

1122
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:47,759
Speaker 1: where it was in the past. Right, So, like I think, like,

1123
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 1: to me, that is a signal that it's not like

1124
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 1: a Roethelisberger thing of like he's bad all the way around.

1125
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 1: It's something that is localized to their connection.

1126
00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:57,719
Speaker 5: Uh.

1127
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:00,720
Speaker 1: And you can interpret like what it is that that means.

1128
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 1: But then when you also place that against the backdrop

1129
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 1: of Antonio Brown based on a number of statistics, but

1130
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 1: racer the statistic created by Josh Furmsmeier, Like that's one

1131
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: of them. You could look at the expected points statistic

1132
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 1: at Roto Viz. Right, based on a number of statistics,

1133
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:24,919
Speaker 1: he's gotten progressively less efficient each season. And like when

1134
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:29,840
Speaker 1: he's astronomically the most productive player in the world in

1135
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 1: twenty fourteen, if he drops off just a little bit

1136
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 1: in twenty and fifteen and a little bit in twenty

1137
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:38,439
Speaker 1: and sixteen, you don't even notice it because he's still

1138
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 1: so much better than everybody else, Right, But when he

1139
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:44,879
Speaker 1: continues to drop off just a little bit, like at

1140
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 1: this point, he's now like sixty six percent as efficient

1141
00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 1: as he was in twenty and fourteen, Like that might continue,

1142
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:57,000
Speaker 1: Like that curve might get even steeper next year. And

1143
00:51:57,080 --> 00:51:59,400
Speaker 1: so like I guess, like this is like the warning

1144
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 1: of I think if everyone enters twenty nineteen believing absolutely

1145
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 1: that Antonio Brown is the number one receiver and drafting

1146
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:11,280
Speaker 1: him as if he is, like, they could be opening

1147
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 1: themselves up to a lot of liability later.

1148
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 4: That's fair That's definitely fair because you know these things again,

1149
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:20,279
Speaker 4: like these wide receivers, especially ones that have played that

1150
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 4: you know, physically above the means of like anyone else

1151
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 4: in the league for so long. You know, anytime you

1152
00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 4: have any type of drop off, it couldn't manifest itself.

1153
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 4: The one final thing I'll say is that and like

1154
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 4: this is this is just more so like I'm one,

1155
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 4: I feel like we need more numbers. Like I'd wonder

1156
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 4: what is the coverage? How is the coverage affecting this?

1157
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:39,240
Speaker 4: Because one thing that's kind of changed for the Steelers

1158
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 4: this year compared to years past is that they really

1159
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 4: don't have a deep threat now, like James Washington has

1160
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 4: not worked out. Like even Martavis was on the field

1161
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:49,080
Speaker 4: last year. He wasn't a huge factor, but he was

1162
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 4: running clear outs every place. So like like now, like

1163
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 4: I just wonder if perhaps and like I'm sure I

1164
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 4: think maybe Sports Info Solutions somebody probably has this information

1165
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 4: next gen, But like how are like the how are

1166
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 4: the fenders around him on his target point? How is

1167
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 4: that affecting? You know, because it could just be defenses

1168
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:07,239
Speaker 4: are spelling out more than ever.

1169
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: I don't write that is a huge that's a huge point,

1170
00:53:10,239 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 1: and like, and we don't we don't have the data

1171
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 1: on I don't have and maybe like if we dig

1172
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 1: more somehow we can find the data on it. Like

1173
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:21,359
Speaker 1: I would venture to say that with Juju playing as

1174
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 1: like the best receiver with whom Antonio Brown has ever

1175
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:29,359
Speaker 1: been paired, Brown shouldn't be facing more defensive attention than

1176
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 1: he's ever been facing in his career. You know what

1177
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 1: I mean?

1178
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 2: That is fair, but it's what it is. It's a

1179
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 2: lot of times it's a spatial thing.

1180
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 4: So it's like it's like they it's it's just the

1181
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 4: same reason that like the Eagles offense we talked about

1182
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 4: it's kind of struggling because they like they have au

1183
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 4: Sean and Tate and and and all these guys that

1184
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 4: are good and erth, but they don't have Mike Wallace

1185
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:51,960
Speaker 4: or Tory Smith and that actually might have been a

1186
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:55,799
Speaker 4: bigger loss. So it's like, yes, Juju is amazing, but

1187
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 4: he's also a guy that you generally have to defend

1188
00:53:58,640 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 4: in a certain area of the field.

1189
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 2: That's like not as hard to defend, that's all.

1190
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 4: But yeah, like we have to figure WHOA we'll probably

1191
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 4: get more data on, especially now that we talked about

1192
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:06,920
Speaker 4: it on you.

1193
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:08,480
Speaker 2: I'm sure somebody will tweet us.

1194
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:10,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm sure lots of you are going to tweet us.

1195
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 1: Has to buy it. Okay, God, we are so far

1196
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:16,600
Speaker 1: off the rails on this show. All right, We have

1197
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,359
Speaker 1: the two minute drill, the quote unquote two minute drill

1198
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 1: coming up next. Right after Josh Applebaum tells us which

1199
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 1: game the wise guys are betting this week.

1200
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 5: Money Talks and Action, apple Bomb is all ears. This

1201
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 5: is the Sharp Report.

1202
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 2: NFL Week fourteen.

1203
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 6: We are traveling to San Francisco for a four o'clock

1204
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 6: matchup between the six and six ten for Broncos and

1205
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 6: the two and ten San Francisco forty nine ers. Public

1206
00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:47,359
Speaker 6: betters take one look at the records of these two

1207
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 6: teams and say automatic fade for the two and ten

1208
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:53,280
Speaker 6: nine ers, But sharps are buying low on San Francisco

1209
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 6: to keep it close in this one. This game opened

1210
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 6: with Denver as a minus five and a half road favorite.

1211
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,879
Speaker 6: Currently seventy one one percent of spread bets are laying

1212
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:04,720
Speaker 6: the points with Denver. However, we've seen this line fall

1213
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,799
Speaker 6: from Denver minus five and a half to Denver minus four.

1214
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:09,320
Speaker 1: Why would the odds makers.

1215
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 6: Drop the line on Denver to give public Broncos backers

1216
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 6: an easier shot at covering. It's because they got hit

1217
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:18,319
Speaker 6: with big wise guy sharp action on San Francisco, which

1218
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:21,399
Speaker 6: caused reverse line movement in favor of San Fran. San

1219
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:25,279
Speaker 6: Frian also enjoys a really valuable bet first dollar discrepancy.

1220
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 6: It's one of the most heavily bet games of the

1221
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 6: weekend and sand Fan is only getting twenty nine percent

1222
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:32,400
Speaker 6: of spread bets, but that accounts for sixty three percent

1223
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:34,879
Speaker 6: of spread dollars. That's really telling you that the big

1224
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,439
Speaker 6: sharper wagers are grabbing the points with San Fran where

1225
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:40,359
Speaker 6: the average Joe five dollars bets are grabbing Denver. We've

1226
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:42,919
Speaker 6: also seen a ton of Steaman reverse line move bet

1227
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:46,000
Speaker 6: signals on San Fran all across the market. Sharps have

1228
00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:49,200
Speaker 6: been getting down on San Fran, causing seven separate steam

1229
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 6: and reverse line moves coming from San Fran plus five

1230
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 6: and a half plus six and a half plus seven

1231
00:55:54,520 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 6: all the way down to San Fran plus five and

1232
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:59,360
Speaker 6: even a late move on San Fran plus four. So

1233
00:55:59,400 --> 00:56:03,400
Speaker 6: even though public betters are hammering case Keenum and Denver,

1234
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 6: sharps are buying low on san Fran. San Fran also

1235
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 6: finds himself in a profitable historical spot. They fit the

1236
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:14,800
Speaker 6: bet lab system pro Match pro ATS records. This system

1237
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 6: is basically buying low on teams that do not cover,

1238
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:22,200
Speaker 6: going against teams that cover a lot. So when square

1239
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 6: betters bet on a team and cash, they're going to

1240
00:56:25,080 --> 00:56:26,840
Speaker 6: want to continue to bet them. When they bet on

1241
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:28,840
Speaker 6: a team and lose, they're going to want to fade them.

1242
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:32,719
Speaker 6: And it's human nature, but this just provides great opportunity

1243
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:34,840
Speaker 6: to buy low on a team that doesn't cover and

1244
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 6: fade a team that does cover. And this pro ATS

1245
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 6: records bet Lab system is sixty one point six percent

1246
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:44,439
Speaker 6: ats over fifty one units one since two thousand and five,

1247
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:48,239
Speaker 6: with a nineteen percent ROI. So week fourteen, even though

1248
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:51,759
Speaker 6: public betters are hammering Denver, sharps are buying low on

1249
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:54,720
Speaker 6: san Fran at home to lose by less than touchdown.

1250
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 1: Okay, that was Josh Applebomb. Be sure to check out

1251
00:56:57,680 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 1: his article The Sharp Report on the Action Network. Chris

1252
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:04,880
Speaker 1: Let's run through these remaining non primetime games. The Eagles

1253
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:06,919
Speaker 1: at the Cowboys. Cowboys favored by three and a half

1254
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 1: a forty four point over under. The Eagles have won

1255
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 1: two straight games for the first time all year. The

1256
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 1: Cowboys have won four straight and could create a lot

1257
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 1: of separation in the division with a win.

1258
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 4: Philadelphia's pass offense, let's talk about it. Their target leader

1259
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:23,000
Speaker 4: since the Golden Tate Trade still zach Ertz twenty six percent,

1260
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 4: but their air yard leader Nelson Agalar twenty six percent.

1261
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 4: Alshon Jeffrey third on the team and target since it's

1262
00:57:29,560 --> 00:57:33,360
Speaker 4: Golden Tate trade and fourth on the team in air yards.

1263
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:35,600
Speaker 4: It's not necessarily going to get easier against the Cowboys.

1264
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:38,960
Speaker 4: Their best defense tends to be on the perimeter against

1265
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:41,800
Speaker 4: the bigger receiver types because they have Byron Jones and

1266
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:46,080
Speaker 4: Chouldobe Ougie out there. And I'll just throw in one

1267
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:48,280
Speaker 4: of my stats that I love to tweet out. The

1268
00:57:48,440 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 4: under now twenty seven and seventeen to sixty one percent

1269
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:54,480
Speaker 4: all time in games started in the regular season by

1270
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 4: Dak Prescott.

1271
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the Dak under. Patriots at Dolphins. Pats

1272
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 1: favored by seven and a half forty seven point over under.

1273
00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:04,480
Speaker 1: The spread is down from nine twenty six percent of

1274
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:06,120
Speaker 1: the tickets fifty two percent of the money is on

1275
00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:08,640
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. The Pats are in the running for a

1276
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:11,439
Speaker 1: playoff by the Dolphins are fighting for the number six seed.

1277
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 1: This is a rematch of the Patriots thirty eight to

1278
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: seven Week four home victory.

1279
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean the Patriots. They always struggle in Miami.

1280
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 4: But the thing that got my attention here Miami cornerback

1281
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:27,560
Speaker 4: Xavian Howard looks like he's doubtful has having a knee issue.

1282
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:29,640
Speaker 2: There is actually word that he might have had.

1283
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:33,720
Speaker 4: Surgery, but anyway, he's allowing a fifty percent completion rate,

1284
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:37,520
Speaker 4: four to seven touchdown and interception ratio, and a sixty

1285
00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 4: two point six sixty one point six passer rating this season,

1286
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 4: so that's that's an if he looks like he's gonna

1287
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:46,880
Speaker 4: miss again, that's an upgrade for the Outsider series, especially

1288
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 4: Josh Gordon, who he might have shadowed.

1289
00:58:49,160 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 1: Okay, The Antonio led Steelers at the Raiders. Steelers favored

1290
00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:55,479
Speaker 1: by ten and a half a fifty one point five

1291
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:58,160
Speaker 1: over under. The spread is down from thirteen. The Steelers

1292
00:58:58,200 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 1: have lost two straight. They're playing their third game of

1293
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:03,480
Speaker 1: their third road game in four weeks, and the Raiders

1294
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 1: are playing sort of for the number one pick in

1295
00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 1: the draft, So this.

1296
00:59:07,200 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 4: One is all about you know, James Connor is going

1297
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:12,520
Speaker 4: to be out in that Panthers game. When Connor played

1298
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 4: only forty one percent of the snaps, Jayalen Samuels played

1299
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:20,160
Speaker 4: twenty nine percent and went five carries for seven yards

1300
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 4: on the ground, but three for twenty two through the

1301
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 4: air with a touchdown on four targets. Steven Ridley mixed

1302
00:59:26,320 --> 00:59:28,440
Speaker 4: in for seventeen percent of the snaps but did get

1303
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 4: eight carries for twenty six yards, only was targeted once

1304
00:59:32,360 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 4: did not catch that pass. Samuels is the better pass blocker.

1305
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:39,439
Speaker 4: His pass blocking rating from Pro Football Focus is eighty

1306
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:43,320
Speaker 4: two point five compared to Ridley's seventy two point four.

1307
00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:47,600
Speaker 4: And they Samuels has more receiving touchdowns over the last

1308
00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:50,720
Speaker 4: four weeks of his rookie season than Stephen Ridley, the

1309
00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:52,160
Speaker 4: veteran has in his entire career.

1310
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 2: That's two to zero.

1311
00:59:53,880 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 4: And then I know you wrote up this under as

1312
00:59:58,200 --> 01:00:01,080
Speaker 4: your favorite bet in our Action Network staff that this year.

1313
01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:03,200
Speaker 4: I believe it was ten and twenty eight to the

1314
01:00:03,280 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 4: Under and Steward road games in the eighty era.

1315
01:00:05,880 --> 01:00:06,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yep.

1316
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:10,040
Speaker 1: I mean if he were better, they would come him

1317
01:00:10,080 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 1: over all, right, okay. The Falcons at the Packers Packers

1318
01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:19,280
Speaker 1: favored by five a fifty point five over under. The

1319
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:21,280
Speaker 1: spread is up from four, the total is up from

1320
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:24,320
Speaker 1: forty eight. The Falcons have lost four straight. The Packers

1321
01:00:24,360 --> 01:00:27,120
Speaker 1: have lost five of six since their Week seven by

1322
01:00:27,800 --> 01:00:30,720
Speaker 1: and they fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy after losing

1323
01:00:30,800 --> 01:00:33,040
Speaker 1: at home to the lowly Cardinals last week.

1324
01:00:33,560 --> 01:00:34,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I mean, a.

1325
01:00:34,440 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 4: Lot of the focus here is on the Packers and

1326
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 4: their struggles, but and Lanta's having some struggles of their own.

1327
01:00:39,400 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 4: Their average and just twenty points per game on the road,

1328
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:45,040
Speaker 4: and they haven't scored twenty points at home or on

1329
01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:48,120
Speaker 4: the road in their last four games, So don't don't

1330
01:00:48,200 --> 01:00:50,600
Speaker 4: overlook the Falcons struggling as well.

1331
01:00:51,400 --> 01:00:54,120
Speaker 1: The Lions at the Cardinals Lions favored by three a

1332
01:00:54,240 --> 01:00:57,080
Speaker 1: forty point five over under. The spread is up from one.

1333
01:00:57,720 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 1: The Lions have lost five and six games. The Cardinals

1334
01:00:59,880 --> 01:01:02,240
Speaker 1: are coming off a big win against the Packers. They're

1335
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:04,440
Speaker 1: playing at home after two straight road games.

1336
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,600
Speaker 2: So Christian Kirk, the rookie out for the year.

1337
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:10,439
Speaker 4: He was responsible for nineteen percent of their targets, twenty

1338
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:13,720
Speaker 4: four percent of their air yards, undrafted free agent wide

1339
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:17,480
Speaker 4: receiver Trent Shirfield twenty percent of the air ars last week.

1340
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 2: If you need a desperation.

1341
01:01:19,240 --> 01:01:23,320
Speaker 1: Pick up, all right. Bengals at Chargers Chargers favored by fourteen,

1342
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 1: a forty seven point five over under. The Bengals have

1343
01:01:25,720 --> 01:01:28,520
Speaker 1: lost four straight games, aren't without quarterback Andy Dalton and

1344
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 1: wide receiver aj Green. The Chargers have lost only one

1345
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:34,040
Speaker 1: game since Week four, and they're coming off a big

1346
01:01:34,080 --> 01:01:36,360
Speaker 1: Sunday night football win over the Steelers.

1347
01:01:36,960 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 4: So this one looks like Melvin Gordon pretty iffy to play,

1348
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:44,160
Speaker 4: probably won't play. So coach Anthony Wynn had a quote,

1349
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 4: had a few quotes to the media about the running

1350
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:50,200
Speaker 4: back situation. What he said about Austin Eckler was, he's

1351
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 4: wearing down a little bit. He's a core special teams

1352
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 4: guy for us, and he's played a lot of running

1353
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 4: back for us, so he's a little tired. You might

1354
01:01:57,840 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 4: see Justin Jackson play a little bit more, and you

1355
01:02:01,320 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 4: might see Detrez Newsom play some this week. In the

1356
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:07,800
Speaker 4: second half against the Steelers last week in that upset,

1357
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:11,280
Speaker 4: Jackson nine touches, Eckler eight touches.

1358
01:02:12,080 --> 01:02:13,800
Speaker 2: This is important because.

1359
01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 4: Cincinnati versus running backs over their last four games, two

1360
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty point five total yards per game, two

1361
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 4: running backs and nine touchdowns over those four games.

1362
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:26,280
Speaker 2: So that's two point three per game.

1363
01:02:26,960 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 1: All right, Giants at Redskins Giants favored by three and

1364
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:32,360
Speaker 1: a half a forty one point over under. The spread

1365
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 1: has moved from plus one and a half Giants with

1366
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 1: the injury to Colt McCoy. The Giants have won three

1367
01:02:38,240 --> 01:02:40,600
Speaker 1: or four games since there By, the Redskins are starting

1368
01:02:40,720 --> 01:02:43,520
Speaker 1: Mark Sanchez a quarterback and have lost three straight. This

1369
01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:46,080
Speaker 1: is a rematch of the Redskins twenty to thirteen road

1370
01:02:46,120 --> 01:02:47,959
Speaker 1: win in Week eight.

1371
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:51,600
Speaker 2: I mean cold McCoy moving and spreads. Where whoa my god,

1372
01:02:53,600 --> 01:02:55,200
Speaker 2: Jesus oh that threw me off?

1373
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:58,360
Speaker 4: Josh Norman, though that's always kind of the key question

1374
01:02:58,400 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 4: on everyone's mind anytime the Giants in the Reskins play

1375
01:03:01,760 --> 01:03:05,000
Speaker 4: Josh Norman Odell Beckham. So, Josh Norman this season hasn't

1376
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 4: been great seventy one percent completion percentage allowed, nine point

1377
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:13,120
Speaker 4: six yards per target allowed, five touchdowns to three interceptions,

1378
01:03:13,160 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 4: and four pass breakups per PFF.

1379
01:03:16,120 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 2: So I don't think this should be any trouble even

1380
01:03:18,360 --> 01:03:20,000
Speaker 2: if they shadow, all right.

1381
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:22,400
Speaker 1: Jets at Bills. I can't believe we're even talking about

1382
01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:25,720
Speaker 1: this game. Bill's favored by a thirty eight point over under.

1383
01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:27,360
Speaker 1: This is the game no one cares about. The Jets

1384
01:03:27,400 --> 01:03:30,600
Speaker 1: have lost six straight, including in Week ten when they

1385
01:03:30,640 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 1: lost forty one to ten against the Bills, who are

1386
01:03:32,920 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 1: a mediocre three and four. In quarterback, Josh Allens starts.

1387
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:40,920
Speaker 4: So Josh Allen to the two wide receivers they released

1388
01:03:41,000 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 4: this week, Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes who got picked

1389
01:03:43,800 --> 01:03:45,200
Speaker 4: up by the Broncos.

1390
01:03:45,640 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 2: To those two guys, he was eighteen to forty three.

1391
01:03:48,080 --> 01:03:50,400
Speaker 4: That's a forty one point eight percent completion percentage two

1392
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:53,080
Speaker 4: hundred and thirty nine yards. That's five point six per attempt,

1393
01:03:53,320 --> 01:03:57,040
Speaker 4: one touchdown. That's a two point three percent touchdown rate.

1394
01:03:57,560 --> 01:04:00,960
Speaker 4: But to all other receivers he has targeted this season,

1395
01:04:01,320 --> 01:04:03,480
Speaker 4: he's eighty three of one forty that's a fifty nine

1396
01:04:03,520 --> 01:04:07,600
Speaker 4: percent completion rate. So fifty nine versus forty two, nine

1397
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:09,800
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty four yards to those guys, that's six

1398
01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:10,960
Speaker 4: point eight yards per attempt.

1399
01:04:11,000 --> 01:04:13,800
Speaker 2: Not great, but you know, in line with a normal rookie.

1400
01:04:13,440 --> 01:04:15,840
Speaker 4: And four touchdowns, So the touchdown rate increases a little

1401
01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:18,440
Speaker 4: bit two point nine percent, So Josh Allen, I think a.

1402
01:04:18,440 --> 01:04:20,840
Speaker 2: Little bit, little bit underrated overlook.

1403
01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:22,400
Speaker 4: Adding a lot on the ground. I think he's a

1404
01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:24,440
Speaker 4: solid fantasy option. I think he's a little better than

1405
01:04:25,160 --> 01:04:27,160
Speaker 4: than we expected as well in real life.

1406
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 1: Okay. Coming up is our third and long segment onlineup

1407
01:04:31,600 --> 01:04:33,960
Speaker 1: building and slate strategy. Right after, we check in with

1408
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:36,680
Speaker 1: Johnny Eween for some trend based sports betting insights.

1409
01:04:38,720 --> 01:04:43,240
Speaker 5: Good data is always in fashion. Here's John Ewing with

1410
01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:45,439
Speaker 5: trend of the week.

1411
01:04:47,200 --> 01:04:49,720
Speaker 3: Cashal betters like wagering on the over. The over has

1412
01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 3: received a majority of tickets and more than eighty percent

1413
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 3: of NFL games in the bet Labs database since two

1414
01:04:54,880 --> 01:04:58,200
Speaker 3: thousand and three. Oddsmakers know this and inflate the lines,

1415
01:04:58,240 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 3: which creates value for under betters. Since two thousand and three,

1416
01:05:01,520 --> 01:05:03,600
Speaker 3: it has been profitable to bet the under in high

1417
01:05:03,680 --> 01:05:07,240
Speaker 3: total games more than forty five points with significant line

1418
01:05:07,240 --> 01:05:09,880
Speaker 3: movement at least a one point move. This system works

1419
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:12,840
Speaker 3: best late in the season, as injuries limit the effectiveness

1420
01:05:12,840 --> 01:05:16,160
Speaker 3: of offenses, and quarterbacks facing a divisional opponent for the

1421
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:19,960
Speaker 3: second time have typically performed worse. Since two thousand and three,

1422
01:05:20,280 --> 01:05:22,880
Speaker 3: betting unders that match this system have hit at a

1423
01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:25,680
Speaker 3: fifty eight percent. That's one hundred and sixty three and

1424
01:05:25,920 --> 01:05:29,920
Speaker 3: one to eighteen record three games match for Sunday Packers, Falcons,

1425
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:33,680
Speaker 3: Chargers Bengals, and forty nine Ers Broncos. A majority of

1426
01:05:33,720 --> 01:05:35,919
Speaker 3: bets are on the over in these games, but sharp

1427
01:05:35,960 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 3: betters should fade the public and wader on the under.

1428
01:05:38,400 --> 01:05:39,920
Speaker 1: All right, That was Johnny wan Be trying to check

1429
01:05:39,920 --> 01:05:44,120
Speaker 1: out his sports betting articles each week at the Action Network. Chris,

1430
01:05:44,160 --> 01:05:47,600
Speaker 1: we are going to sprint through this section. Okay, so

1431
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,160
Speaker 1: I know you you'd like to get long winded over there,

1432
01:05:50,960 --> 01:05:51,480
Speaker 1: not gonna let you.

1433
01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:56,680
Speaker 4: Wasn't the one that sliver in Football and extra interlude.

1434
01:05:56,720 --> 01:06:00,400
Speaker 1: But okay, man, okay, all right, let's talk to strategy.

1435
01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:02,960
Speaker 1: Let's look at the highest owned players in terms of

1436
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:05,919
Speaker 1: their projections in the Fantasy last models. Let's think about

1437
01:06:05,920 --> 01:06:07,560
Speaker 1: who you want a roster, who we might want to

1438
01:06:07,560 --> 01:06:09,440
Speaker 1: pivot away from, who he might want to pivot to.

1439
01:06:09,560 --> 01:06:12,240
Speaker 1: Let's start a quarterback, and let's look at Drew Brees

1440
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:15,240
Speaker 1: and Jamis Winston playing in that game with a very

1441
01:06:15,320 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 1: high total in Tampa Bay. What are your thoughts on

1442
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:19,360
Speaker 1: those two guys?

1443
01:06:19,680 --> 01:06:21,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, it kind of goes back to what I said earlier.

1444
01:06:21,280 --> 01:06:23,240
Speaker 4: I think it could have underwhelmed a little just because

1445
01:06:23,320 --> 01:06:25,160
Speaker 4: of you know, I think the totals a.

1446
01:06:25,160 --> 01:06:26,120
Speaker 2: Little bit inflated.

1447
01:06:26,440 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 4: Don't love Breeze on the road because of the low

1448
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:31,960
Speaker 4: path volume I mentioned, you know, twenty eight point five

1449
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:35,680
Speaker 4: attempts only per game since mark Ingram came back, so

1450
01:06:36,320 --> 01:06:38,200
Speaker 4: for me, and then if you look at our trends

1451
01:06:38,200 --> 01:06:43,080
Speaker 4: tool at home plus nine point eight seven plus minus

1452
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 4: on average in home games this season, but a negative

1453
01:06:46,280 --> 01:06:48,640
Speaker 4: point twenty six on the road. So Breeze is not

1454
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:52,000
Speaker 4: really a guy I'm targeting in cash games. I'm looking

1455
01:06:52,040 --> 01:06:54,720
Speaker 4: more at Deshaun Watson at that at that fifty nine

1456
01:06:54,840 --> 01:06:58,480
Speaker 4: hundred mark on DraftKings, and I think that's really kind

1457
01:06:58,520 --> 01:06:58,640
Speaker 4: of the.

1458
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:01,400
Speaker 2: Going to be to be the guy for me.

1459
01:07:01,560 --> 01:07:03,520
Speaker 4: I could see, I could see Cam Newton if we

1460
01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:05,600
Speaker 4: get word that he's fully healthy, or even Alan Rodgers

1461
01:07:06,040 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 4: in sixty at six K, but I think Breeze and

1462
01:07:09,440 --> 01:07:11,840
Speaker 4: I'd rather play Winston to be honest with you, Yeah,

1463
01:07:12,080 --> 01:07:14,120
Speaker 4: than Breeze at this point just because of the volume

1464
01:07:14,160 --> 01:07:16,680
Speaker 4: creates such a a low floor that we kind of

1465
01:07:16,680 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 4: still come out against Dallas.

1466
01:07:17,920 --> 01:07:19,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you and that team is such

1467
01:07:19,560 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 1: a pass heavy team anyway, and then you could easily

1468
01:07:23,000 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 1: see how they could maybe have a pass heavy game

1469
01:07:25,240 --> 01:07:28,160
Speaker 1: script in this contest. Of course, again, the one thing

1470
01:07:28,160 --> 01:07:31,640
Speaker 1: to monitor would be the precipitation. If it's raining in

1471
01:07:31,680 --> 01:07:33,720
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, obviously, that's that's a game I'd want to

1472
01:07:33,760 --> 01:07:36,480
Speaker 1: stay away from. In terms of the quarterbacks for cash games,

1473
01:07:36,640 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 1: I mean, regardless, I am interested in Winston in terms

1474
01:07:39,680 --> 01:07:43,480
Speaker 1: of his his prop yardage. I think that could that

1475
01:07:43,520 --> 01:07:46,360
Speaker 1: could end up being good going against the going against

1476
01:07:46,360 --> 01:07:48,840
Speaker 1: the Saints, And as always, I will be using the

1477
01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:51,680
Speaker 1: Fantasy Labs prop tool, which is powered by our industry

1478
01:07:51,760 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 1: leading projections created by Sean Corner aka the Odds Maker.

1479
01:07:55,160 --> 01:07:57,360
Speaker 1: This season, the NFL props with a back quality of

1480
01:07:57,400 --> 01:08:00,680
Speaker 1: ten or two hundred and seven ninety two eleven, good

1481
01:08:00,760 --> 01:08:03,520
Speaker 1: for a smoking hit rate of sixty seven percent. To

1482
01:08:03,640 --> 01:08:06,160
Speaker 1: access the tool, subscribe to Fantasy Labs, where you can

1483
01:08:06,200 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 1: get a five day trial for just fifteen ninety five.

1484
01:08:09,400 --> 01:08:13,560
Speaker 1: You mentioned Deshaun Watson going against Indianapolis. We've talked about

1485
01:08:13,640 --> 01:08:16,320
Speaker 1: him a little bit. Any other thoughts, uh, you know, I.

1486
01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:18,719
Speaker 4: Mean, I think you know in tournaments, you know, walk

1487
01:08:18,800 --> 01:08:20,960
Speaker 4: maybe a little bit a little bit under roam just

1488
01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:23,160
Speaker 4: because he's coming off the bad game, but you know,

1489
01:08:23,200 --> 01:08:25,519
Speaker 4: obviously playing out of his mind always lot.

1490
01:08:25,560 --> 01:08:27,400
Speaker 2: He has low floor but high ceiling.

1491
01:08:27,479 --> 01:08:29,720
Speaker 4: So I think he's another guy that you might want

1492
01:08:29,720 --> 01:08:31,679
Speaker 4: to jump back on when it goes when it comes.

1493
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:34,479
Speaker 2: To tournament's big ben, he's kind of priced up a little bit.

1494
01:08:34,920 --> 01:08:38,080
Speaker 4: Interestingly enough, though, his home roads with this season have

1495
01:08:38,160 --> 01:08:41,439
Speaker 4: actually been fine, Like he's a plus six point sixty

1496
01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:44,200
Speaker 4: five average plus minus at home per the Trends Tool,

1497
01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:47,560
Speaker 4: plus six point seventy five on the road on draftings

1498
01:08:47,840 --> 01:08:48,639
Speaker 4: per the Trends Tool.

1499
01:08:48,720 --> 01:08:50,920
Speaker 2: So you know, not no real drop off this year.

1500
01:08:51,000 --> 01:08:52,519
Speaker 4: Don't know if it's noise, don't know if it's not,

1501
01:08:52,640 --> 01:08:55,000
Speaker 4: but mister raiders, so he should be all right.

1502
01:08:55,360 --> 01:08:57,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think part of that is due to

1503
01:08:57,320 --> 01:08:59,439
Speaker 1: a couple of things. One is obviously the great play

1504
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:02,479
Speaker 1: in Antonio Brown, and then the second thing is that

1505
01:09:03,280 --> 01:09:06,160
Speaker 1: DraftKings this year really has made I think a concerted

1506
01:09:06,240 --> 01:09:09,960
Speaker 1: effort to try to change their salaries based on certain

1507
01:09:10,000 --> 01:09:13,439
Speaker 1: splits or certain matchups, and so this year they have

1508
01:09:13,840 --> 01:09:17,480
Speaker 1: I think I've really made an effort to price Roethlisberger

1509
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:20,679
Speaker 1: down when he's on the road relative to what they've

1510
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:23,160
Speaker 1: done in the past, So I think that's something just

1511
01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:25,439
Speaker 1: kind of like in the market that has changed this year.

1512
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:28,360
Speaker 1: Let's talk about running backs and let's stay that game.

1513
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:31,400
Speaker 1: Jaln Samuels, who I think is kind of like one

1514
01:09:31,400 --> 01:09:36,120
Speaker 1: of the main storylines of this slate going against the Raiders,

1515
01:09:36,640 --> 01:09:38,960
Speaker 1: so a good matchup for him. Obviously on the road,

1516
01:09:39,000 --> 01:09:40,880
Speaker 1: so not that great of a spot, but his team

1517
01:09:40,960 --> 01:09:43,240
Speaker 1: is favored by a lot, And the important thing is

1518
01:09:43,240 --> 01:09:46,280
Speaker 1: that he's very cheap, so he's someone that a lot

1519
01:09:46,280 --> 01:09:48,920
Speaker 1: of people really might be thinking about putting into their

1520
01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:52,400
Speaker 1: cash game lineups for some salary relief. In our rankings

1521
01:09:52,479 --> 01:09:55,960
Speaker 1: at Fantasy Labs, sorry, at Action Network, we have him

1522
01:09:56,040 --> 01:09:58,559
Speaker 1: ranked both as a running back and as a tight

1523
01:09:58,640 --> 01:10:00,439
Speaker 1: end for people who are playing in the legues where

1524
01:10:00,720 --> 01:10:04,080
Speaker 1: he has dual eligibility, So people can check that out

1525
01:10:04,080 --> 01:10:07,320
Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com slash fantasy Chris, what are you

1526
01:10:07,520 --> 01:10:09,320
Speaker 1: looking at with Samuels?

1527
01:10:09,920 --> 01:10:11,799
Speaker 4: You know, I like, you know, I've heard some people

1528
01:10:11,920 --> 01:10:16,519
Speaker 4: kind of hesitant to throw him in there, but like,

1529
01:10:16,520 --> 01:10:17,480
Speaker 4: like why.

1530
01:10:17,360 --> 01:10:19,280
Speaker 2: Like he's he like they said, he's going to be

1531
01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:19,639
Speaker 2: the starter.

1532
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:25,000
Speaker 4: He's a better pass catcher, uh than Ridley, so you know,

1533
01:10:25,040 --> 01:10:28,160
Speaker 4: you're still getting that kind of the floor of okay

1534
01:10:28,160 --> 01:10:28,960
Speaker 4: if things don't.

1535
01:10:28,760 --> 01:10:30,960
Speaker 2: Go as expected. You know, he can catch them passes.

1536
01:10:31,000 --> 01:10:32,680
Speaker 4: I mean he's caught a couple of touch He's like

1537
01:10:32,800 --> 01:10:34,479
Speaker 4: been in the end zone, which is it's always good

1538
01:10:34,479 --> 01:10:36,880
Speaker 4: when you have a track record of a production, you know,

1539
01:10:36,880 --> 01:10:38,479
Speaker 4: coming into these kind of games. I mean, I don't

1540
01:10:38,479 --> 01:10:40,920
Speaker 4: really see any reason to go again to not play him.

1541
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:44,120
Speaker 4: You know, at this point in cash games, throwing against

1542
01:10:44,120 --> 01:10:48,320
Speaker 4: the worst the worst defense essentially in the league, and

1543
01:10:48,560 --> 01:10:50,840
Speaker 4: I expect him to split work with Ridley, maybe even

1544
01:10:50,880 --> 01:10:52,040
Speaker 4: really out carries him.

1545
01:10:52,080 --> 01:10:54,760
Speaker 2: But when you add that pass game, and he's just

1546
01:10:54,800 --> 01:10:55,320
Speaker 2: a better player.

1547
01:10:55,360 --> 01:10:57,760
Speaker 4: I mean, he's a good player, Like he's the fact

1548
01:10:57,800 --> 01:10:59,920
Speaker 4: that he's playing tight end and or at least has

1549
01:11:00,320 --> 01:11:02,280
Speaker 4: has played tight end, is listed as a Titan as well,

1550
01:11:02,320 --> 01:11:04,439
Speaker 4: is like should show you that he's a versatile guy

1551
01:11:04,439 --> 01:11:05,160
Speaker 4: that can do anything.

1552
01:11:05,280 --> 01:11:08,519
Speaker 2: So I'd be very excited to throw him in my lineup.

1553
01:11:08,840 --> 01:11:12,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was an all around playmaker in college. Jeffrey Wilson.

1554
01:11:12,640 --> 01:11:15,560
Speaker 1: I think some people will either consider going with Samuels

1555
01:11:15,680 --> 01:11:17,920
Speaker 1: or going with Wilson as a you know, a cheap guy,

1556
01:11:18,200 --> 01:11:20,320
Speaker 1: and some people might even look to put both of

1557
01:11:20,360 --> 01:11:23,639
Speaker 1: them in their lineups. What are you thinking with this

1558
01:11:23,800 --> 01:11:27,080
Speaker 1: matchup here? As like the injury fill into the injury

1559
01:11:27,120 --> 01:11:28,320
Speaker 1: fill in, he.

1560
01:11:28,360 --> 01:11:30,240
Speaker 4: Kind of catches the short end of a stick because

1561
01:11:30,240 --> 01:11:33,680
Speaker 4: you also have Justin Jackson here. Price is essentially in

1562
01:11:33,720 --> 01:11:38,080
Speaker 4: the same spot as Wilson, and I think that on FanDuel,

1563
01:11:38,240 --> 01:11:41,759
Speaker 4: Jackson is actually forty five hundred on FanDuel, I expect

1564
01:11:41,840 --> 01:11:45,800
Speaker 4: Justin Jackson to essentially kind of get Belvin Gordon's workout

1565
01:11:45,840 --> 01:11:48,240
Speaker 4: and Eckuler to kind of go back to being like echoer.

1566
01:11:48,360 --> 01:11:50,440
Speaker 2: So I would probably play.

1567
01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:55,639
Speaker 4: Samuel and Jackson over Wilson, just because I still do

1568
01:11:55,720 --> 01:12:00,200
Speaker 4: have respect for this Denver Broncos defense. But if for

1569
01:12:00,240 --> 01:12:03,040
Speaker 4: some reason Jackson does isn't an option anymore, or you know,

1570
01:12:03,120 --> 01:12:05,000
Speaker 4: Gordon's gonna play, they kind of go back to saying

1571
01:12:05,000 --> 01:12:06,679
Speaker 4: Ekwer is going to be like the lead guy again

1572
01:12:06,760 --> 01:12:10,360
Speaker 4: or whatever not. I think, you know, Wilson just at

1573
01:12:10,400 --> 01:12:13,519
Speaker 4: that price, you know, fifty six hundred on STANDU was

1574
01:12:13,560 --> 01:12:14,920
Speaker 4: it thirty seven.

1575
01:12:14,760 --> 01:12:16,120
Speaker 2: Thirty eight hundred on DraftKings.

1576
01:12:16,600 --> 01:12:18,519
Speaker 4: You know, you just kind of take the free square

1577
01:12:18,520 --> 01:12:21,000
Speaker 4: at the volume if you need it. But I'd still

1578
01:12:21,080 --> 01:12:22,840
Speaker 4: rather play Samders because I think he has a better

1579
01:12:23,280 --> 01:12:25,160
Speaker 4: matchup and I think he's probably more talented.

1580
01:12:26,120 --> 01:12:28,800
Speaker 1: All Right, a few expensive guys here, Tell me which

1581
01:12:28,840 --> 01:12:31,759
Speaker 1: one you like the most. Christian McCaffrey at Cleveland, Ezekiel

1582
01:12:31,840 --> 01:12:36,280
Speaker 1: Elliott versus the Eagles, Saquon Barkley at Washington, Alvin Kamara

1583
01:12:36,320 --> 01:12:37,080
Speaker 1: at Tampa Bay.

1584
01:12:38,960 --> 01:12:42,760
Speaker 4: Give me Christian just because, like first we mentioned it,

1585
01:12:42,760 --> 01:12:45,280
Speaker 4: you know, Cleveland weakness against the run.

1586
01:12:46,080 --> 01:12:48,280
Speaker 2: Carolina really needs this football game.

1587
01:12:49,240 --> 01:12:52,519
Speaker 4: You know, Denzel Award could take out one of the

1588
01:12:52,520 --> 01:12:56,320
Speaker 4: wide receivers, maybe DJ Moore. Like I think Christian McCaffrey's in,

1589
01:12:56,439 --> 01:12:58,960
Speaker 4: and we've just seen Monster game, Like Christian McCaffrey has

1590
01:12:59,000 --> 01:13:01,160
Speaker 4: like Zeke has been consistent in barks But I mean

1591
01:13:01,200 --> 01:13:03,519
Speaker 4: the caaffreys had like fifty points fantasy games.

1592
01:13:03,560 --> 01:13:05,920
Speaker 2: Like it's I think you got to favor him.

1593
01:13:06,400 --> 01:13:08,800
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to a wide receiver. The guy

1594
01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:14,040
Speaker 1: who catches my eye is Chris Godwin going against the Saints. Obviously,

1595
01:13:14,080 --> 01:13:17,120
Speaker 1: this is under the assumption that Deshaun Jackson does not play.

1596
01:13:18,080 --> 01:13:19,400
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on Godwin?

1597
01:13:20,680 --> 01:13:21,400
Speaker 2: Love Godwin.

1598
01:13:21,760 --> 01:13:24,280
Speaker 4: Deshaun Jackson might not, uh, they say they're talking about

1599
01:13:24,280 --> 01:13:26,160
Speaker 4: you might not play for verst of years, right right.

1600
01:13:26,640 --> 01:13:30,599
Speaker 4: I love Godwin, but love Adam Humphries as well, because

1601
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:34,160
Speaker 4: the way you attack the Saints is in the slot

1602
01:13:34,200 --> 01:13:36,320
Speaker 4: first and foremost. So I think Adam Humphrey is great matchup.

1603
01:13:36,320 --> 01:13:37,720
Speaker 4: I think it's kind of a repeat of last week

1604
01:13:37,720 --> 01:13:41,200
Speaker 4: where it's like Mike Evans might be a little bit overvalued.

1605
01:13:41,200 --> 01:13:43,080
Speaker 4: You know, Mike Evans hasn't quite been like that this

1606
01:13:43,200 --> 01:13:46,680
Speaker 4: target monster that we've come to expect, whether it's been

1607
01:13:46,760 --> 01:13:50,040
Speaker 4: Jameis or Fits a little better with fitsactly, But I

1608
01:13:50,040 --> 01:13:52,280
Speaker 4: think you want to target both of these Bucks receivers again,

1609
01:13:52,360 --> 01:13:55,680
Speaker 4: just like last week, Godwin and Humphreys. Godwin has used

1610
01:13:55,680 --> 01:13:57,679
Speaker 4: a huge upside because he's gonna play on the outside,

1611
01:13:57,680 --> 01:14:00,719
Speaker 4: you know, every pretty much every snap with with Deshaun

1612
01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:02,120
Speaker 4: out and we saw that, you know, the one hundred

1613
01:14:02,200 --> 01:14:02,840
Speaker 4: yard game last week.

1614
01:14:02,880 --> 01:14:05,439
Speaker 2: He think he has ability to go deep, has ability

1615
01:14:05,439 --> 01:14:08,120
Speaker 2: in the red zone. So just a good, good all

1616
01:14:08,120 --> 01:14:09,639
Speaker 2: around spot for these Bucks guys.

1617
01:14:09,800 --> 01:14:12,200
Speaker 1: All right. Someone else who has a high ownership projection

1618
01:14:12,360 --> 01:14:15,880
Speaker 1: is Keenan Allen in a great matchup against the Bengals,

1619
01:14:15,880 --> 01:14:20,360
Speaker 1: who have just been really exploitable on defense recently. What

1620
01:14:20,400 --> 01:14:21,320
Speaker 1: are your thoughts with him.

1621
01:14:22,240 --> 01:14:23,320
Speaker 2: I like Keenan Allen.

1622
01:14:24,120 --> 01:14:25,640
Speaker 4: I think I was on the Keenan side in that

1623
01:14:25,680 --> 01:14:28,840
Speaker 4: whole A J. Greener you are, yeah, but I mean,

1624
01:14:28,880 --> 01:14:32,320
Speaker 4: which obviously looking good good now, it's looking good now,

1625
01:14:32,360 --> 01:14:35,240
Speaker 4: But I mean yeah, I mean, but I do worry

1626
01:14:35,280 --> 01:14:37,400
Speaker 4: a little bit just about the volume in this game,

1627
01:14:37,439 --> 01:14:40,120
Speaker 4: because you know, last week we all kind of again

1628
01:14:40,360 --> 01:14:43,600
Speaker 4: national TV game, we kind of have you know, the

1629
01:14:43,840 --> 01:14:48,599
Speaker 4: recent recently biased by this monster volume game from Keenan Allen.

1630
01:14:49,320 --> 01:14:50,920
Speaker 4: But that was in a game that was a thirty

1631
01:14:50,960 --> 01:14:54,120
Speaker 4: twenty three game or is it thirty whatever the score was,

1632
01:14:54,520 --> 01:14:56,479
Speaker 4: you know, high scoring game where they needed to put

1633
01:14:56,520 --> 01:14:59,800
Speaker 4: up points. This is a game where they're fourteen points.

1634
01:14:59,800 --> 01:15:02,960
Speaker 4: They Philip Rivers not throwing the ball very much. But

1635
01:15:03,080 --> 01:15:05,120
Speaker 4: he's around thirty two or so attempts per game, So

1636
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:08,120
Speaker 4: that the one thing I just worry about is volume

1637
01:15:08,200 --> 01:15:10,320
Speaker 4: here to really take him over the top. I probably

1638
01:15:11,040 --> 01:15:13,880
Speaker 4: favor more for a tournament play, maybe, you know, if

1639
01:15:13,920 --> 01:15:16,000
Speaker 4: the game is a little closer or as like a

1640
01:15:16,280 --> 01:15:18,800
Speaker 4: leverage off Jackson, who I think will be pretty highly

1641
01:15:18,880 --> 01:15:22,200
Speaker 4: owned if the week kind of plays out with with

1642
01:15:22,320 --> 01:15:23,679
Speaker 4: Gordon ending up sitting out.

1643
01:15:23,760 --> 01:15:26,280
Speaker 2: So that's that's my kind of feeling on him.

1644
01:15:26,920 --> 01:15:30,160
Speaker 1: All right, One guy that a lot of people are

1645
01:15:30,160 --> 01:15:33,720
Speaker 1: going to consider is Courtland Sutton at San Francisco, especially

1646
01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:37,000
Speaker 1: now with Emain Old Sanders being out. What are your

1647
01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 1: thoughts on him?

1648
01:15:39,560 --> 01:15:42,320
Speaker 4: You know, another guy who I think, you know, the

1649
01:15:42,439 --> 01:15:46,160
Speaker 4: volume is there, so it's like you don't really at that,

1650
01:15:46,400 --> 01:15:47,120
Speaker 4: like he's down at.

1651
01:15:47,000 --> 01:15:50,240
Speaker 2: Forty five hundred. I don't think you you know, I don't.

1652
01:15:50,120 --> 01:15:53,040
Speaker 4: Hate it, but I always do worry about those situations

1653
01:15:53,080 --> 01:15:55,880
Speaker 4: where you have kind of a not not that great

1654
01:15:55,960 --> 01:15:59,240
Speaker 4: quarterback and you have a receiver who is now going

1655
01:15:59,280 --> 01:16:03,000
Speaker 4: to be getting all the defensive attention for the essentially

1656
01:16:03,040 --> 01:16:06,519
Speaker 4: the first time, and there's not really many options around

1657
01:16:06,600 --> 01:16:10,280
Speaker 4: him to take that heat off. So and also this

1658
01:16:10,320 --> 01:16:12,600
Speaker 4: could be a low scoring game because you know we

1659
01:16:12,640 --> 01:16:14,760
Speaker 4: talked about earlier, this is just too you know, San

1660
01:16:14,760 --> 01:16:16,960
Speaker 4: Francisco is not a very good team, not likely to

1661
01:16:16,960 --> 01:16:19,720
Speaker 4: put a lot of pressure on Denver either way in

1662
01:16:19,800 --> 01:16:22,240
Speaker 4: terms of scoring a lot of points. So that's he's

1663
01:16:22,280 --> 01:16:24,960
Speaker 4: another guy that because there's all this value at running back,

1664
01:16:25,000 --> 01:16:27,880
Speaker 4: which is still like the position where you can be

1665
01:16:27,920 --> 01:16:31,240
Speaker 4: a little more certain of what you're getting from from

1666
01:16:31,360 --> 01:16:35,519
Speaker 4: running back, I probably try to like stay off Stutton

1667
01:16:35,560 --> 01:16:37,600
Speaker 4: if I could, because I could see a lot of

1668
01:16:37,600 --> 01:16:39,479
Speaker 4: situations where he ends up being bad.

1669
01:16:39,520 --> 01:16:41,800
Speaker 2: Shock. Like remember even when De Maius went down like

1670
01:16:42,000 --> 01:16:42,720
Speaker 2: sutting up like.

1671
01:16:42,680 --> 01:16:45,160
Speaker 4: He was, he was putting together like these like halfway

1672
01:16:45,240 --> 01:16:48,240
Speaker 4: useful fantasy games. But he never really had this explosion

1673
01:16:49,000 --> 01:16:52,639
Speaker 4: until it was last week. So you know, I think

1674
01:16:52,680 --> 01:16:54,360
Speaker 4: I see some downside with something.

1675
01:16:54,880 --> 01:16:59,240
Speaker 1: Okay, a few expensive guys here, Michael Thomas and Tampa Bay,

1676
01:16:59,320 --> 01:17:04,040
Speaker 1: Julio Jones, Green Bay, DeVante Adams versus Atlanta, DeAndre Hopkins

1677
01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:08,719
Speaker 1: versus Indianapolis, and Odell Beckham at Washington. Out of those guys,

1678
01:17:09,240 --> 01:17:10,720
Speaker 1: who do you like the most?

1679
01:17:11,000 --> 01:17:12,080
Speaker 2: DeVante Adams?

1680
01:17:12,479 --> 01:17:15,479
Speaker 4: I think that, like, first of all, Davante Adams has

1681
01:17:15,520 --> 01:17:18,400
Speaker 4: been amazing, just like this year, like he's another guy.

1682
01:17:18,439 --> 01:17:21,400
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not just Aaron Rodgers. Like DeVante Adams.

1683
01:17:21,479 --> 01:17:23,439
Speaker 4: You know, his ability to kind of adjust to what

1684
01:17:23,479 --> 01:17:27,160
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers is doing out there, it has been just spectacular.

1685
01:17:27,240 --> 01:17:29,880
Speaker 4: I think he's a men amunst boys in that receiving corps.

1686
01:17:29,920 --> 01:17:33,280
Speaker 4: And this Atlanta defense is you know, bottom bottom four

1687
01:17:33,479 --> 01:17:36,720
Speaker 4: against the path and they have a new coach, so

1688
01:17:36,800 --> 01:17:39,639
Speaker 4: I think you might see you know, even smarter, more

1689
01:17:39,680 --> 01:17:42,120
Speaker 4: creative offense. But I think either way that that just

1690
01:17:42,160 --> 01:17:44,360
Speaker 4: helps Adams and he's like almost an automatic.

1691
01:17:44,000 --> 01:17:47,000
Speaker 2: Touchdown bet at this point, So give me, give me Devonte.

1692
01:17:47,200 --> 01:17:50,439
Speaker 1: All right, it's tight end. There are two expensive guys

1693
01:17:50,439 --> 01:17:52,439
Speaker 1: and then two cheaper guys who are kind of standing

1694
01:17:52,479 --> 01:17:55,160
Speaker 1: out in our ownership projections. You have Zach Ertz and

1695
01:17:55,200 --> 01:17:57,559
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey on the higher side, and then a little

1696
01:17:57,560 --> 01:18:00,759
Speaker 1: bit further down you have Eric Ebron and George Kittle.

1697
01:18:01,320 --> 01:18:02,639
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on them?

1698
01:18:02,960 --> 01:18:07,920
Speaker 4: Well, you know, the Houston Texans, aside from David Nijoku

1699
01:18:08,040 --> 01:18:12,320
Speaker 4: last week, have been getting just demolished by tight ends

1700
01:18:12,360 --> 01:18:14,479
Speaker 4: for most of the year. So I think he assuming

1701
01:18:14,520 --> 01:18:16,720
Speaker 4: Ebron plays, I know he popped up on the injury report,

1702
01:18:16,880 --> 01:18:21,560
Speaker 4: but assuming he plays, I still like going back to

1703
01:18:21,560 --> 01:18:23,479
Speaker 4: to Ebron in the spot though he's a little pricey,

1704
01:18:23,560 --> 01:18:26,600
Speaker 4: so I mean, you know, I probably end up in

1705
01:18:26,720 --> 01:18:31,320
Speaker 4: cash games still going with somebody like Gronk there at

1706
01:18:31,800 --> 01:18:34,439
Speaker 4: at forty eight hundred, because Ebron is fifty seven hundred.

1707
01:18:34,439 --> 01:18:36,439
Speaker 4: I mean, Miami is a team that I generally do

1708
01:18:36,560 --> 01:18:38,840
Speaker 4: like to target with with like backs and tight ends

1709
01:18:38,880 --> 01:18:42,040
Speaker 4: and whatnot, so I have no problem playing playing Gronk

1710
01:18:42,240 --> 01:18:45,880
Speaker 4: down there at forty eight hundred. I think Erth's tournament play,

1711
01:18:45,960 --> 01:18:50,360
Speaker 4: Kelsey great tournament play. Generally don't prefer to pay up

1712
01:18:50,360 --> 01:18:52,559
Speaker 4: that much for tight ends in cash games, although this

1713
01:18:52,600 --> 01:18:54,160
Speaker 4: week I think you can do it because you have

1714
01:18:54,400 --> 01:18:56,519
Speaker 4: you could conceive what we start three running backs on

1715
01:18:56,600 --> 01:18:59,160
Speaker 4: draftings that are under four k. You could also you

1716
01:18:59,160 --> 01:19:01,760
Speaker 4: know they're Sutton, so there there are options, which I

1717
01:19:01,800 --> 01:19:04,920
Speaker 4: don't think it's a terrible move to to pay up

1718
01:19:04,920 --> 01:19:07,719
Speaker 4: at tight end, but you know you have Kelsey. Probably

1719
01:19:08,120 --> 01:19:10,360
Speaker 4: Baltimore Ravens have been somewhat vulnerable to tight ends, but

1720
01:19:10,360 --> 01:19:12,400
Speaker 4: it's still a matchup where you don't quite expect the

1721
01:19:12,439 --> 01:19:14,360
Speaker 4: Chiefs to score as many points as they usually do.

1722
01:19:14,640 --> 01:19:17,160
Speaker 4: And then you know Erth's against going against Dallas, I

1723
01:19:17,200 --> 01:19:20,559
Speaker 4: think you can feel pretty confident about him. But that's

1724
01:19:20,600 --> 01:19:23,360
Speaker 4: another situation where you know those kind of games tend

1725
01:19:23,360 --> 01:19:26,120
Speaker 4: to go under second divisional match of Dat Prescott. So

1726
01:19:27,120 --> 01:19:29,799
Speaker 4: I probably I like the discount here with with Gronk,

1727
01:19:29,840 --> 01:19:30,680
Speaker 4: to be honest.

1728
01:19:30,479 --> 01:19:34,080
Speaker 1: To your point on Gronk. Peter Jennings obviously cs you

1729
01:19:34,280 --> 01:19:37,680
Speaker 1: M eighty eight uh tweeted out earlier based on the

1730
01:19:37,800 --> 01:19:40,519
Speaker 1: data in the Fantasy Labs Trends tool. This is the

1731
01:19:40,560 --> 01:19:44,280
Speaker 1: cheapest that Gronk has ever been on DraftKings Baby, So uh,

1732
01:19:44,360 --> 01:19:46,720
Speaker 1: you know it's like if you're if you're looking to

1733
01:19:46,720 --> 01:19:49,160
Speaker 1: buy low, this is this is the time I.

1734
01:19:49,080 --> 01:19:50,960
Speaker 4: Meant a three touchdown upside, Like, I mean, I know

1735
01:19:51,040 --> 01:19:52,960
Speaker 4: he's been yeah, but yeah, it's like why not, I mean,

1736
01:19:52,960 --> 01:19:56,080
Speaker 4: tight end has been such a you know, wasteland anyway

1737
01:19:56,120 --> 01:19:58,240
Speaker 4: that like, for all we know, you end up paying

1738
01:19:58,280 --> 01:20:00,000
Speaker 4: up for for zach Ert and he gets like two catches.

1739
01:20:01,200 --> 01:20:02,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, give me.

1740
01:20:03,320 --> 01:20:05,240
Speaker 1: All right. We're going to close out the show with

1741
01:20:05,320 --> 01:20:08,160
Speaker 1: our fourth and Goal segment previewing Sunday Night Football. But

1742
01:20:08,160 --> 01:20:10,240
Speaker 1: first let's kick it to Ian Harden, who runs through

1743
01:20:10,240 --> 01:20:14,160
Speaker 1: the key Week fourteen coverage situations.

1744
01:20:15,360 --> 01:20:20,160
Speaker 5: The press, the jam, and the five yard bump. Ian

1745
01:20:20,360 --> 01:20:25,320
Speaker 5: Harden springs you Dance of the Divas.

1746
01:20:27,000 --> 01:20:31,799
Speaker 7: Fourteen features seven key shadow matchups. Robbie Anderson roster Davius White.

1747
01:20:32,240 --> 01:20:34,680
Speaker 7: Anderson did risk the Bill's number one cornerback for a

1748
01:20:34,720 --> 01:20:36,960
Speaker 7: twenty five yeard touchdown last season, but it's tough to

1749
01:20:36,960 --> 01:20:39,320
Speaker 7: get behind anyone in this passing game. With Sam Darnold

1750
01:20:39,360 --> 01:20:42,479
Speaker 7: expected back under center, Adell Beckham Junior will take on

1751
01:20:42,560 --> 01:20:45,840
Speaker 7: Josh Norman. Redskins number two cornerback Quentin Dunbar is done

1752
01:20:45,840 --> 01:20:47,880
Speaker 7: for the season, so we can expect Norman to shadow

1753
01:20:47,920 --> 01:20:50,760
Speaker 7: every week moving forward. OBJ has won this matchup in

1754
01:20:50,880 --> 01:20:54,439
Speaker 7: three of their four career rivalry games. Mike Evans will

1755
01:20:54,479 --> 01:20:57,839
Speaker 7: take on Marshaun Lattimore. Evans obviously dominated their first matchup,

1756
01:20:58,160 --> 01:21:00,519
Speaker 7: but make sure to check the weather on this one.

1757
01:21:00,560 --> 01:21:02,880
Speaker 7: There's a very high chance of precipitation. The over under

1758
01:21:02,920 --> 01:21:05,439
Speaker 7: has been in a free fall all week. The Browns

1759
01:21:05,439 --> 01:21:08,840
Speaker 7: and Panthers will feature three shadow matchups between the Browns

1760
01:21:08,840 --> 01:21:12,200
Speaker 7: wide receivers and Panthers corners. Antonio Callaway will face off

1761
01:21:12,200 --> 01:21:15,719
Speaker 7: against speedy rookie Dante Jackson. Rashard Higgins will see plus

1762
01:21:15,760 --> 01:21:18,880
Speaker 7: size number one James Bradberry and Jarvis Langry will see

1763
01:21:18,960 --> 01:21:22,240
Speaker 7: nickel back Captain Munterland, Devonte Parker and Kenny Stills will

1764
01:21:22,240 --> 01:21:25,799
Speaker 7: face off against Stefan Gilmour and Jason mccordy. Patriots cornerbacks

1765
01:21:25,840 --> 01:21:29,679
Speaker 7: are capable of dominating these matchups. Neither Parker nor Stills

1766
01:21:29,680 --> 01:21:32,479
Speaker 7: has gained over sixty yards in their previous matchups against

1767
01:21:32,479 --> 01:21:36,000
Speaker 7: New England. Gatting back to the last season. Kenny Galladay

1768
01:21:36,000 --> 01:21:39,240
Speaker 7: and Patrick Peterson trustee plumbing each other, but Patrick Peterson

1769
01:21:39,280 --> 01:21:41,760
Speaker 7: doesn't go inside and Galladay has lined up in the

1770
01:21:41,760 --> 01:21:43,559
Speaker 7: slot in forty one percent of his snaps over the

1771
01:21:43,560 --> 01:21:47,120
Speaker 7: past two weeks. Tyler Lockett will face off as Xavier Rhoads.

1772
01:21:47,360 --> 01:21:49,240
Speaker 7: Locke has a type of dynamic ability that can give

1773
01:21:49,240 --> 01:21:52,840
Speaker 7: a larger cornerback like Rhodes problems, but much like some

1774
01:21:52,920 --> 01:21:55,160
Speaker 7: of these other teams, it's tough to see too much

1775
01:21:55,160 --> 01:21:58,000
Speaker 7: pass volume coming out of Seattle. A favorite matchup of

1776
01:21:58,040 --> 01:22:01,000
Speaker 7: the week is Courtland Sutton versus forty nine. Even before

1777
01:22:01,040 --> 01:22:04,439
Speaker 7: the Emmanuel Sanders injury, Sutton was set up exceptionally well

1778
01:22:04,479 --> 01:22:06,960
Speaker 7: in this game. Richard Sherman does not travel that he

1779
01:22:07,000 --> 01:22:09,679
Speaker 7: does not move across the field, so we're expecting sudden

1780
01:22:09,720 --> 01:22:12,880
Speaker 7: lineup across from liability at Kello Witherspoon on real fly

1781
01:22:12,960 --> 01:22:14,960
Speaker 7: fifty five percent of his snap Sunday.

1782
01:22:15,160 --> 01:22:16,720
Speaker 1: A right that was Ian. Be sure to check out

1783
01:22:16,720 --> 01:22:19,240
Speaker 1: his wide receiver cornerback matchup call him each week at

1784
01:22:19,240 --> 01:22:23,160
Speaker 1: the Action Network Chris Sunday Night Football The Rams at

1785
01:22:23,160 --> 01:22:25,840
Speaker 1: the Bears. Rams favored by three a fifty one point

1786
01:22:25,840 --> 01:22:29,040
Speaker 1: five over under. The Rams have locked up the NFC

1787
01:22:29,120 --> 01:22:31,400
Speaker 1: West and are playing for the number one seed. The

1788
01:22:31,400 --> 01:22:33,679
Speaker 1: Bears are coming off a loss to the lowly Giants,

1789
01:22:33,880 --> 01:22:36,960
Speaker 1: but Mitch Trubisky is practicing in full and expected to

1790
01:22:37,000 --> 01:22:38,519
Speaker 1: be back. What are your thoughts here.

1791
01:22:39,280 --> 01:22:41,360
Speaker 2: I like the spot as a rebound spot for the Bears.

1792
01:22:41,400 --> 01:22:44,640
Speaker 4: I think, you know, they people didn't expect them to

1793
01:22:44,640 --> 01:22:47,519
Speaker 4: lose to the Giants, and now you know Risky's coming back.

1794
01:22:48,760 --> 01:22:50,960
Speaker 4: That's a big upgrade for them, especially in a situation

1795
01:22:51,040 --> 01:22:53,120
Speaker 4: like this with a defense, I think that is exploitable,

1796
01:22:53,560 --> 01:22:55,839
Speaker 4: but that can also get a pass rush and collapse

1797
01:22:55,840 --> 01:22:57,720
Speaker 4: the pocket from the inside as well.

1798
01:22:57,760 --> 01:23:00,320
Speaker 2: So I think just having through Biskys.

1799
01:23:00,439 --> 01:23:03,280
Speaker 4: Mobile ability back in the lineup is going to play

1800
01:23:03,400 --> 01:23:07,920
Speaker 4: a key role for Chicago. I think that without Cooper

1801
01:23:07,960 --> 01:23:09,960
Speaker 4: cup I think this Rams offense is a little bit

1802
01:23:10,760 --> 01:23:14,080
Speaker 4: more vulnerable going on the road here to Chicago.

1803
01:23:15,000 --> 01:23:17,680
Speaker 2: You know, I think that could pose could pose a

1804
01:23:17,680 --> 01:23:20,599
Speaker 2: little bit of a problem for the for the Rams.

1805
01:23:20,600 --> 01:23:23,639
Speaker 2: So I'm you know, I'm getting three points with the Bears.

1806
01:23:23,720 --> 01:23:24,479
Speaker 2: I am taking that.

1807
01:23:24,600 --> 01:23:27,519
Speaker 4: You know, if you look at John Ewing actually had

1808
01:23:27,560 --> 01:23:30,160
Speaker 4: a good trend in the in the in the betting

1809
01:23:30,160 --> 01:23:32,080
Speaker 4: guy for us at the Action network this week for

1810
01:23:32,120 --> 01:23:35,280
Speaker 4: this game. Betting against teams that have won more than

1811
01:23:35,280 --> 01:23:38,920
Speaker 4: eighty percent of their games in December or later, one

1812
01:23:39,080 --> 01:23:41,040
Speaker 4: thirty four one on one and two, that's a fifty

1813
01:23:41,080 --> 01:23:44,880
Speaker 4: seven percent hit rate against the spread going back to

1814
01:23:44,920 --> 01:23:48,000
Speaker 4: two thousand and three. That kind of that was one

1815
01:23:48,000 --> 01:23:51,160
Speaker 4: of the reasons, you know, betting against the Chiefs last week.

1816
01:23:51,200 --> 01:23:52,840
Speaker 4: You know, a few spots where you wouldn't really think

1817
01:23:52,880 --> 01:23:54,640
Speaker 4: to bet against these teams.

1818
01:23:54,360 --> 01:23:55,679
Speaker 2: Kind of tends to pay off.

1819
01:23:55,920 --> 01:23:57,200
Speaker 4: But I think the Bears have a chance to win

1820
01:23:57,240 --> 01:23:59,960
Speaker 4: this game, so that I'm I'm going with the Bears.

1821
01:24:00,840 --> 01:24:02,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take the other side. I'll go with

1822
01:24:02,439 --> 01:24:05,160
Speaker 1: the Rams. And if it were three and a half,

1823
01:24:05,320 --> 01:24:08,559
Speaker 1: I would be much less interested in taking this, But

1824
01:24:08,640 --> 01:24:10,920
Speaker 1: knowing that I do have the opportunity to push it three,

1825
01:24:11,800 --> 01:24:15,000
Speaker 1: you know, just a little more security there, and you know,

1826
01:24:15,600 --> 01:24:19,200
Speaker 1: ordinarily I would be interested in taking the team total.

1827
01:24:19,760 --> 01:24:22,120
Speaker 1: But I do respect the Bears defense. But I you know,

1828
01:24:22,200 --> 01:24:25,439
Speaker 1: I also think that I feel comfortable enough taking the

1829
01:24:25,560 --> 01:24:29,120
Speaker 1: Rams because I don't have all that much I don't know,

1830
01:24:29,280 --> 01:24:32,640
Speaker 1: like I still think that Truebisky is developing, you know

1831
01:24:32,640 --> 01:24:34,960
Speaker 1: what I mean, Like he's not I don't think he's

1832
01:24:35,000 --> 01:24:37,200
Speaker 1: like the player he's he's going to be yet or

1833
01:24:37,240 --> 01:24:40,320
Speaker 1: that they want him to be yet, and a key

1834
01:24:40,360 --> 01:24:42,880
Speaker 1: to lead is back. You know. I think they were

1835
01:24:42,880 --> 01:24:46,519
Speaker 1: easing him into action last week. I expect him to

1836
01:24:46,520 --> 01:24:48,880
Speaker 1: play more snaps this week. So like, I think we're

1837
01:24:48,920 --> 01:24:52,679
Speaker 1: going to see a better version of the Rams true bisky,

1838
01:24:52,760 --> 01:24:54,920
Speaker 1: I think Will I don't think they would play him

1839
01:24:54,960 --> 01:24:58,639
Speaker 1: if he weren't healthy, but you know, like returning from injury,

1840
01:24:58,760 --> 01:25:01,000
Speaker 1: being off a couple of weeks, like I could see

1841
01:25:01,040 --> 01:25:04,000
Speaker 1: there being a little bit of rust and I don't know.

1842
01:25:04,040 --> 01:25:06,280
Speaker 1: I just like I think I think the Rams are

1843
01:25:06,320 --> 01:25:08,559
Speaker 1: better than a lot of other teams. I think the

1844
01:25:08,600 --> 01:25:11,120
Speaker 1: Bears have done a really good job of coming back

1845
01:25:11,160 --> 01:25:14,840
Speaker 1: from like they're playing the last place schedule, you know

1846
01:25:14,840 --> 01:25:16,800
Speaker 1: what I mean. Like, I think they've done a good

1847
01:25:16,880 --> 01:25:20,320
Speaker 1: job of maximizing what they've had this year. But I

1848
01:25:20,400 --> 01:25:24,400
Speaker 1: just don't see them as being three points less than

1849
01:25:24,840 --> 01:25:27,600
Speaker 1: the Rams. I think they are more like six or

1850
01:25:27,680 --> 01:25:30,080
Speaker 1: seven points less than the Rams, you know what I mean.

1851
01:25:30,320 --> 01:25:31,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's definitely fair.

1852
01:25:31,360 --> 01:25:33,960
Speaker 4: I think for me, kind of the equalizers, Like it's

1853
01:25:34,000 --> 01:25:37,120
Speaker 4: in Chicago, Yeah, in the code weather, which doesn't really

1854
01:25:37,200 --> 01:25:39,479
Speaker 4: have that much experience with and like just from watching

1855
01:25:39,479 --> 01:25:42,800
Speaker 4: this Rams offense like post, like I think I mentioned

1856
01:25:42,800 --> 01:25:45,280
Speaker 4: a few weeks ago they had they had kind of

1857
01:25:45,280 --> 01:25:48,040
Speaker 4: struggled without Cooper Cup at times. And then you know,

1858
01:25:48,040 --> 01:25:50,880
Speaker 4: they obviously had the big game against the Chiefs, which

1859
01:25:50,960 --> 01:25:54,120
Speaker 4: you kind of expected, but even in the well who

1860
01:25:54,120 --> 01:25:56,360
Speaker 4: they put ast week Detroit, right, even in that game,

1861
01:25:56,439 --> 01:25:59,479
Speaker 4: like they were pretty sluggish for a good a good while,

1862
01:25:59,600 --> 01:26:02,240
Speaker 4: like that first half, the Rams didn't really look like

1863
01:26:02,240 --> 01:26:04,680
Speaker 4: the Rams either. So it's like just seeing the fact that,

1864
01:26:04,760 --> 01:26:08,360
Speaker 4: like without Cup, this team can be mortal at times,

1865
01:26:08,400 --> 01:26:10,800
Speaker 4: and they can go through stretches where they're not just

1866
01:26:11,240 --> 01:26:14,120
Speaker 4: scoring points on every single drive or every other drive

1867
01:26:15,160 --> 01:26:18,160
Speaker 4: against the defense that's as good as Chicago in Chicago.

1868
01:26:18,479 --> 01:26:19,960
Speaker 2: It just gives me a little bit of pause.

1869
01:26:20,080 --> 01:26:22,080
Speaker 4: So I think it's like I think it's a little

1870
01:26:22,120 --> 01:26:23,760
Speaker 4: bit more of a toss up, and so I like,

1871
01:26:23,960 --> 01:26:25,920
Speaker 4: I like getting those three, but but I hear, I mean,

1872
01:26:25,920 --> 01:26:27,920
Speaker 4: the Rams are a better team, no question about it.

1873
01:26:27,960 --> 01:26:29,800
Speaker 4: But you know you have Matt and Aggie on the

1874
01:26:29,800 --> 01:26:32,400
Speaker 4: other side, guy that can kind of not not match

1875
01:26:32,479 --> 01:26:37,200
Speaker 4: with with Sean McVay, but his neighborhood.

1876
01:26:37,800 --> 01:26:41,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, like he's he's definitely done a really good job

1877
01:26:41,320 --> 01:26:44,000
Speaker 1: with that offense. Uh And one thing to your point,

1878
01:26:44,040 --> 01:26:46,200
Speaker 1: I mean it's their it's their second game for the Rams,

1879
01:26:46,200 --> 01:26:48,639
Speaker 1: their second game on the road, you know, so uh

1880
01:26:48,760 --> 01:26:52,559
Speaker 1: not not an ideal circumstance for them at all. Okay, Chris,

1881
01:26:52,600 --> 01:26:55,240
Speaker 1: you are going to be breaking down the Monday night

1882
01:26:55,320 --> 01:27:00,040
Speaker 1: game within on our next show. Any final words, Let's.

1883
01:26:59,840 --> 01:27:01,920
Speaker 4: Get get this money and let's give this money because

1884
01:27:01,920 --> 01:27:02,719
Speaker 4: it's the holiday season.

1885
01:27:03,520 --> 01:27:05,479
Speaker 1: All right. That's gonna do it for this Friday episode

1886
01:27:05,479 --> 01:27:08,559
Speaker 1: of the Action Network NFL Podcast. Be sure to rate, review,

1887
01:27:08,560 --> 01:27:11,759
Speaker 1: and subscribe for all of our upcoming episodes. For Chris Raymond,

1888
01:27:11,760 --> 01:27:14,719
Speaker 1: I'm Matthew Freeman, Mattthew Oracle. See you again next episode.