WEBVTT - SHARP NFL Week 9 Bets: Giants-Eagles, Packers-Patriots and more

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part

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<v Speaker 1>of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that

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<v Speaker 1>makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

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<v Speaker 1>I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by

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<v Speaker 1>my co-host, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello, Chad. How are we doing?

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<v Speaker 1>Brother. Look, it's been chaos the past 48 hours. We're

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<v Speaker 1>going to talk about this in a second. People don't

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<v Speaker 1>really understand how big election betting is for a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of professional bettors, especially since prediction markets have become a thing.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to get to that in a second because

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<v Speaker 1>it's connected to Sharp Call, so I don't want to

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<v Speaker 1>preempt anything you're going to say. But, dude. We've had,

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<v Speaker 1>since we did the show on Tuesday, quarterback trades, quarterback injuries,

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<v Speaker 1>player injuries. It seems like three, four, five of the

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<v Speaker 1>games that we talked about on Tuesday is suddenly in

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<v Speaker 1>a different situation. So this is our Thursday NFL Week

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<v Speaker 1>9 show. We're going to hear sharp calls. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to do brass balls. We'll talk about our underdog and

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<v Speaker 1>our favorite round robin parlay, Simon's biggest bets, sharp versus square,

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<v Speaker 1>discord grouper of the week. This is the episode where

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<v Speaker 1>Simon and I will start to narrow down our final

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<v Speaker 1>five picks for the $ 25, 000 free NFL pick'em contest. But

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<v Speaker 1>like I said, every week we discuss our picks on Tuesday.

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<v Speaker 1>And by Thursday, Simon has gotten an earful from his

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<v Speaker 1>professional betting team. colleagues about what we're getting right, what

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<v Speaker 1>we're getting wrong, how we're stepping in it. It's time

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<v Speaker 1>for Sharp Calls.

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<v Speaker 2>Who's there? I'm talking. A different week for Sharp Calls, Chad.

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<v Speaker 2>I definitely got good info and beating around the bushes,

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<v Speaker 2>but I was joking before the show that It's a

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<v Speaker 2>rare time in the season where a lot of pros

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<v Speaker 2>I know aren't betting as heavy this week and potentially

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<v Speaker 2>next week because there was just so much money and

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<v Speaker 2>time put into this election. There was just so much gambling,

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<v Speaker 2>so much conversation. I was joking with you. I know

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<v Speaker 2>you didn't go to a political party or whatever.

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<v Speaker 1>An election party.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, a viewing party. And I am somebody that totally is–

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<v Speaker 2>people are very into politics. I'm on the betting side

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<v Speaker 2>of it. I really– You know, I could go either

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<v Speaker 2>way when it comes to politics. I get it. People

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<v Speaker 2>are dug in on their sides. I'm not one of

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<v Speaker 2>those people. But I went to a party, and the

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<v Speaker 2>amount of people on the Polymarket app, because it's all

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<v Speaker 2>different now. It was always different betting, you know, trading

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<v Speaker 2>the politics and, you know, betting on midterms. But, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>this week, talking to a lot of people, it was

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<v Speaker 2>just interesting how many guys are just Not betting this

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<v Speaker 2>week because they've just won so much money riding that

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<v Speaker 2>blue tsunami, whatever they're calling it now. To them, it

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<v Speaker 2>was easy.

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<v Speaker 1>Blue nami. It's a blue nami.

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<v Speaker 2>To them, it was easy money. And I joke with you,

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<v Speaker 2>I had a bunch of parlays from months ago on

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<v Speaker 2>the Milwaukee Brewers and different things like that all tied

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<v Speaker 2>to different center races and house races. And I'm the

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<v Speaker 2>same boat as them, but I don't take weeks off.

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<v Speaker 2>So that was kind of crazy calling guys up and

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<v Speaker 2>being like, I'm in Mexico or I call a guy,

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<v Speaker 2>but he's like, I'm in Puerto Rico. Like I'm taking

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<v Speaker 2>the next week or two off. Like I, I made

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<v Speaker 2>my bag this month. I'm not really worried about football.

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<v Speaker 2>So I'm interested to see how it goes this week,

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<v Speaker 2>where the money you are going to see this week

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<v Speaker 2>to me will be very, very sharp NFL money. Like

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<v Speaker 2>truly guys like me, who this is all we do.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't do men's basketball or college. Like this is,

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<v Speaker 2>this is our bread and butter is NFL. A lot

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<v Speaker 2>of the guys are kind of, you know, half foot

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<v Speaker 2>and half foot out. they're totally out this week. Those

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<v Speaker 2>guys really aren't betting this week. So that's why these

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<v Speaker 2>lines this week feel very, very sharp. And, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we can start right away. Guess with that Atlanta game,

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<v Speaker 2>like that, that Atlanta game, I'm talking to a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of pros who love Atlanta. I know it's in Spain

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<v Speaker 2>and I know it's off the three and a half,

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<v Speaker 2>but they still love it at the three. So that's

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<v Speaker 2>the game I talked about. I was going to be

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<v Speaker 2>on since he had the two and a half or

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<v Speaker 2>the three. Maybe I'll just be very, very patient and wait.

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<v Speaker 2>If it's two and a half, I'll take it. But

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<v Speaker 2>if it stays at three, three and a half, apparently that's,

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<v Speaker 2>That's where the pros are at. So that was one

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<v Speaker 2>that jumped out to me right away, a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>guys I talked to. A game I loved, not shocking,

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<v Speaker 2>the pros came out with me. Panthers could have got

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<v Speaker 2>it at plus three or three and a half. It's

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<v Speaker 2>now basically two and a half at every shop. So,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, I told you to shop around. I thought

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<v Speaker 2>it was going to go that way. It's not too

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<v Speaker 2>shocking to see it move that way. Another big one

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of guys are talking about, obviously that cold side.

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<v Speaker 2>It was plus six, six and a half against Dallas.

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<v Speaker 2>So gross. Yeah, now I'm going to hit down to five,

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<v Speaker 2>five and a half. And that was another one where

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<v Speaker 2>it's like, oh, God, do I have to bet this

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<v Speaker 2>game now? And it feels like we might have to.

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<v Speaker 2>It's definitely a really respected spot by a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>pros I respect. So another one that was a topic

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<v Speaker 2>of conversation, Seattle. We were all over it. We got burned, right?

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<v Speaker 2>The quarterback switch. Really interesting back and forth where that's

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<v Speaker 2>a very heavily public side. And Arizona still heavily backed

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<v Speaker 2>by the public. Every pro I know is all over Seattle.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's another one we might end up with egg

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<v Speaker 2>in our face. But that was a big topic of discussion.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of guys I talked to this week.

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<v Speaker 1>That is definitely one. Sorry to interrupt you. That is

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<v Speaker 1>definitely one I want to dig in on because I

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<v Speaker 1>feel like we're getting an even bigger edge. But continue.

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<v Speaker 2>You're sick. Patriots, they're two and a half. I told

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<v Speaker 2>you guys Sunday night. I thought the pros were coming

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<v Speaker 2>on it. It's not so much a ton of pros

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<v Speaker 2>I know. It's specifically two really sharp groups I know.

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<v Speaker 2>One West Coast, one East Coast. Both of them have

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<v Speaker 2>taken large positions at a bunch of different shops on

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<v Speaker 2>this Patriots number. I'm looking now. I think most places

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<v Speaker 2>now are minus three and a half. That's really, really

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<v Speaker 2>strong money from those groups to be moving that from

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<v Speaker 2>two and a half all the way across three up

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<v Speaker 2>to three and a half where I talked to you

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<v Speaker 2>about this was going to be the most public side.

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<v Speaker 2>Green Bay, people are really liking this team. And on

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<v Speaker 2>the flip side, I don't think people are so in

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<v Speaker 2>on the Patriots, especially with all the injuries the Patriots

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<v Speaker 2>have had. So I am shocked to see that one

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<v Speaker 2>grow to three and a half, honestly. That was another

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<v Speaker 2>really hot topic. And the last one, Tampa. Tons of

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<v Speaker 2>pros all over it. Everyone– I mean, you've probably seen it, Chad.

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<v Speaker 2>You're on social media. The Chicago hype, the smoke being

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<v Speaker 2>blown up Caleb's ass right now. Yeah. It's peak. It

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<v Speaker 2>is really peaking right now. So it's– A hot topic

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<v Speaker 2>between a lot of pros where it's like what we

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<v Speaker 2>talked about, right? Ben Johnson, primetime games, 8-1 as ATS

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<v Speaker 2>as a coach. It's incredible. He beats up these teams.

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<v Speaker 2>But I gave people those DVOA numbers. This Bucs defense

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<v Speaker 2>is legit. And we're about to find out real quick

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<v Speaker 2>how legit they are because we basically have only seen

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<v Speaker 2>one defense shut down this Chicago team, and that was

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<v Speaker 2>the Vikings, who are also a very legit defense.

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<v Speaker 1>In a tsunami.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. In a tsunami.

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<v Speaker 1>A regular tsunami, not a blue tsunami.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. So that's been a really fun one to talk

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<v Speaker 2>about with a bunch of people. And obviously the last one, Vikings,

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<v Speaker 2>looking like it's going to be Carson Wentz. Tons of

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<v Speaker 2>really smart pro groups all over the Vikings. They know

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to be tons of bills and money. So

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<v Speaker 2>most of the guys I've talked to, they've taken the

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<v Speaker 2>three and a half on the Vikings. But they're saying

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<v Speaker 2>to me the same thing I'm telling you guys. Be patient.

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<v Speaker 2>If this is truly Carson Wentz against Josh Allen, Doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>this get up to four, four and a half come

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<v Speaker 2>Monday night where everyone in the general public is chasing

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<v Speaker 2>their money on Monday night? So that was another really

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<v Speaker 2>hot topic conversation this week, the two primetime games, the

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<v Speaker 2>Bucs and the Minnesota Vikings.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, normally we try to not do both of

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<v Speaker 1>those games. It's going to be hard to not at

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<v Speaker 1>least have a conversation about them for our final five.

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<v Speaker 1>Couldn't agree more on the Bears. We said exactly that

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<v Speaker 1>on Tuesday, peak Bears right now. So we'll have to

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<v Speaker 1>dig deeper on the Bucs. It's so funny, real quickly

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<v Speaker 1>on the politics and the betting, you know, the prediction

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<v Speaker 1>markets have come out this week and talked about the

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<v Speaker 1>volume that they had in that single night and what

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<v Speaker 1>an amazing night it was for their businesses. And if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the volume numbers, it's a tiny overall

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<v Speaker 1>percentage compared to the volume they do on sports. Like

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<v Speaker 1>make no mistakes, people are going to prediction markets to

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<v Speaker 1>trade sports, even if politics was sort of the entry

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<v Speaker 1>point for so many people, Simon, I remember in 2024,

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<v Speaker 1>you and I first started talking about prediction markets. And

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<v Speaker 1>I was sitting down at, I actually wrote about this

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<v Speaker 1>in my book, because originally I wanted my book to

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<v Speaker 1>be about Cauchy and Polymarket and sort of the growing rivalry.

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<v Speaker 1>Couldn't get traction because not enough editors knew about prediction markets.

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<v Speaker 1>So it became a book about sort of the world

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<v Speaker 1>of high stakes sports betting and sports betting trading on

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<v Speaker 1>prediction markets. But I remember you and I, I sat

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<v Speaker 1>down in 2024, going to watch the returns. People are

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<v Speaker 1>starting to do interviews at 7, 7.30. I'm settling in.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to get John King giving me answers for

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening in Kalamazoo County in Michigan. And I get

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<v Speaker 1>a text from you And you go, it's over. I go,

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<v Speaker 1>what do you mean? You go, you go, Trump won.

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<v Speaker 1>I go, how do you know? The polls are just closing.

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<v Speaker 1>He goes, check the prediction. I think he said, check polymarket.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's like the price on Trump was so expensive

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<v Speaker 1>that it was clear anybody who knew anything was betting

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<v Speaker 1>into Trump to become president. So It's been an interesting

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<v Speaker 1>ride to see how these have evolved over literally two years,

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<v Speaker 1>like the quickest 24 months.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the old school saying, I mean, everyone knows this saying,

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<v Speaker 2>but men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie, right? Well,

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<v Speaker 2>the big one now is the polls lie, the news lie,

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<v Speaker 2>the betting markets do not lie. So I feel like

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<v Speaker 2>anyone that was following along with Polymarket or wherever, you

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<v Speaker 2>kind of knew like three days ago. what was going

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<v Speaker 2>to happen. And you could, you could allot yourself and say, well,

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<v Speaker 2>what do these guys know? We're talking billions and billions

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<v Speaker 2>of dollars. Like Chad said, it's only 4%. It's 4%

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<v Speaker 2>of a trillion dollars. It's the amount of money. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't think people realize how much is being bet legally.

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<v Speaker 2>This is just legal too. We're not talking about offshore either.

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<v Speaker 2>This is legal money. The amount of money. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>just the Texas one was the craziest, right? We were

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<v Speaker 2>looking at the Texas market. Insane. Yeah. Just sure. There

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<v Speaker 2>were just two, three days ago, how blue it was.

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<v Speaker 2>where I was joking with you, Telerico, whoever it was,

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<v Speaker 2>I think it was like, it might've been last, it

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<v Speaker 2>might've been in May. I was getting him a 10

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<v Speaker 2>to one to be the Senator of Texas. Like there

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<v Speaker 2>was just, there was these crazy long shots. And then

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<v Speaker 2>as they, the, the, it got closer to the election,

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<v Speaker 2>they were all sort of flipping to being favorites. And

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<v Speaker 2>everyone knows when it's a red state that flips to

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<v Speaker 2>a blue state, now their favorite, that's very telling. And

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<v Speaker 2>I feel like the only ones that were really, unsure

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<v Speaker 2>of by most shops was kansas mississippi and iowa were

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<v Speaker 2>these huge toss-ups coming down to the deadline and even

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<v Speaker 2>then guys i really respect you bet politics you know

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<v Speaker 2>for a living we're just saying no way you're getting

0:12:01.420 --> 0:12:03.020
<v Speaker 2>good value right now in these red states you can

0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:05.480
<v Speaker 2>bet republicans in these red states who are probably going

0:12:05.500 --> 0:12:08.500
<v Speaker 2>to win no matter what and it was interesting talking

0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:09.750
<v Speaker 2>to these guys after the fact where they're like well

0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:12.490
<v Speaker 2>i'm maybe we didn't account for the diesel and the farmers.

0:12:12.530 --> 0:12:14.270
<v Speaker 2>And that was a big movement in those states where

0:12:14.429 --> 0:12:16.910
<v Speaker 2>Iowa historically read all this stuff. It was just interesting

0:12:16.950 --> 0:12:19.010
<v Speaker 2>talking to these people. And I told you the weirdest

0:12:19.030 --> 0:12:22.010
<v Speaker 2>part was being at these parties where, you know, I'm always,

0:12:22.370 --> 0:12:24.810
<v Speaker 2>like Chad said, I can tell you four hours beforehand

0:12:24.830 --> 0:12:28.000
<v Speaker 2>before the news can, who's won elections. That was a

0:12:28.010 --> 0:12:29.760
<v Speaker 2>cool party trick because I used to have these markets

0:12:29.780 --> 0:12:31.920
<v Speaker 2>other people didn't know about. Now I'm at this party,

0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:33.880
<v Speaker 2>everyone knew it. Like it was like seven o'clock and

0:12:33.900 --> 0:12:36.220
<v Speaker 2>everyone was already like new, just like I did, what

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.580
<v Speaker 2>was happening. I was like, ah, man, I kind of

0:12:38.620 --> 0:12:41.330
<v Speaker 2>miss being ahead of everyone. But, Kind of wild to

0:12:41.350 --> 0:12:42.929
<v Speaker 2>sit there and watch it unfold as someone that does

0:12:42.950 --> 0:12:43.550
<v Speaker 2>this for a living.

0:12:43.830 --> 0:12:46.890
<v Speaker 1>It's a little bit like a Super Bowl party. Like

0:12:47.050 --> 0:12:51.270
<v Speaker 1>midterms and presidential elections are now going to become these

0:12:51.330 --> 0:12:55.150
<v Speaker 1>events where you're sending around squares, you're having a party

0:12:55.210 --> 0:12:59.010
<v Speaker 1>about it. Because of the advent of prediction markets, it's

0:12:59.030 --> 0:13:03.290
<v Speaker 1>just become so much more mainstream. This weekend, to take

0:13:03.340 --> 0:13:06.340
<v Speaker 1>it back to sports, the Philadelphia Eagles are three and

0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:08.960
<v Speaker 1>a half point home underdogs at the New York Giants.

0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:11.470
<v Speaker 1>I bring it up because I don't think we're going

0:13:11.490 --> 0:13:14.850
<v Speaker 1>to play the Eagles at plus three and a half.

0:13:15.690 --> 0:13:17.809
<v Speaker 1>But remember earlier this week where Nick Sirianni was saying

0:13:17.830 --> 0:13:21.030
<v Speaker 1>there would be no changes at coordinator or quarterback? There's

0:13:21.050 --> 0:13:22.510
<v Speaker 1>going to be a change. It's going to be Joe

0:13:22.550 --> 0:13:25.530
<v Speaker 1>Milton who's going to be the quarterback replacing Tanner McKee.

0:13:26.490 --> 0:13:29.189
<v Speaker 1>And I wrote in the script and then Matt Mitchell

0:13:29.210 --> 0:13:34.370
<v Speaker 1>said the same thing before we started recording. Joe Milton

0:13:34.429 --> 0:13:42.060
<v Speaker 1>has been a preseason superstar. His arm is electric. But

0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:45.100
<v Speaker 1>there's also a reason the guy keeps bouncing around from

0:13:45.140 --> 0:13:48.700
<v Speaker 1>team to team to team to team. Is this enough

0:13:48.740 --> 0:13:53.090
<v Speaker 1>of a change, especially with the Giants being peak sort

0:13:53.110 --> 0:13:56.229
<v Speaker 1>of J.J. McCarthy is rehab, John Harbaugh is a genius,

0:13:57.429 --> 0:14:02.990
<v Speaker 1>for us to want to seriously consider backing the Eagles

0:14:03.050 --> 0:14:03.689
<v Speaker 1>at three and a half?

0:14:05.590 --> 0:14:07.640
<v Speaker 2>It is the pro side. The pros are all over it.

0:14:07.690 --> 0:14:10.550
<v Speaker 2>They're taking a stand with the Eagles here. We talk

0:14:10.570 --> 0:14:13.819
<v Speaker 2>all the time. It's a divisional matchup and a team

0:14:13.860 --> 0:14:16.699
<v Speaker 2>that if they have any ounce of fight left to them,

0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:18.960
<v Speaker 2>obviously the Eagles fight to the death here and try

0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:22.700
<v Speaker 2>to steal and win this game. I just don't see it.

0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:24.080
<v Speaker 2>I've talked about it. I've seen a team that's been

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.180
<v Speaker 2>totally checked out. I can't tell people to bet on

0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:30.090
<v Speaker 2>the side. Like I keep saying, just fade them in

0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:31.930
<v Speaker 2>the second half if you want to. Maybe this is

0:14:31.990 --> 0:14:34.050
<v Speaker 2>it because Joe Milton comes in and sparks something different,

0:14:34.130 --> 0:14:36.660
<v Speaker 2>but um like we've seen the kid he's got a

0:14:36.740 --> 0:14:40.300
<v Speaker 2>good athletic talent he's got a great arm but being

0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:42.320
<v Speaker 2>consistent being able to throw over the middle all these

0:14:42.380 --> 0:14:44.900
<v Speaker 2>little things that matter as a quarterback getting third downs

0:14:44.990 --> 0:14:48.150
<v Speaker 2>he he really can't do so um yeah as an

0:14:48.190 --> 0:14:50.030
<v Speaker 2>egos fan i want us to lose every game possible

0:14:50.050 --> 0:14:52.050
<v Speaker 2>i want a better draft pick and it's a total

0:14:52.090 --> 0:14:55.230
<v Speaker 2>loss season so yeah i'm torn on this one as

0:14:55.270 --> 0:14:57.030
<v Speaker 2>a fan where it's like yeah bring in milton but

0:14:57.180 --> 0:14:59.670
<v Speaker 2>if he's too good and we win this game I mean,

0:14:59.690 --> 0:15:01.130
<v Speaker 2>what are we doing here? Like we're really going to

0:15:01.150 --> 0:15:03.030
<v Speaker 2>start Milton in the future. Like Chad said, there's a

0:15:03.090 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 2>reason he's been bouncing around from team to team, but yeah,

0:15:05.980 --> 0:15:08.680
<v Speaker 2>this is a game. If you want to handicap it,

0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:10.240
<v Speaker 2>the pros are going to be all over the Eagles

0:15:10.260 --> 0:15:12.020
<v Speaker 2>and the public is going to hammer the giants. Like

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:15.600
<v Speaker 2>they're just most public Joe public. I talked to, he

0:15:15.620 --> 0:15:17.360
<v Speaker 2>was asking me, why is this not seven? It's like,

0:15:17.930 --> 0:15:20.110
<v Speaker 2>You'd think the Giants and J.J. McCarthy should be favored

0:15:20.150 --> 0:15:23.470
<v Speaker 2>by seven over any team on the road. So I

0:15:23.510 --> 0:15:25.550
<v Speaker 2>do think we're getting a little bit of peak love

0:15:25.590 --> 0:15:28.120
<v Speaker 2>for this Giants team here. And we've talked about the Eagles.

0:15:28.130 --> 0:15:30.740
<v Speaker 2>We don't know where rock bottom is. Could this be it?

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:32.720
<v Speaker 2>That's what the pros are betting on. And it's like,

0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 2>I'm not there yet. The Eagles are a team. I

0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 2>want them to be firing people and making big-time movements

0:15:40.380 --> 0:15:43.460
<v Speaker 2>to fire up this team rather than it's business as usual.

0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:46.260
<v Speaker 2>Like Chad just said, Nick Sirianni thought it was still

0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:49.230
<v Speaker 2>going to be Tanner McKee. just 48 hours ago. So

0:15:49.290 --> 0:15:52.030
<v Speaker 2>it's like there's a lot of disconnect right now within

0:15:52.050 --> 0:15:54.980
<v Speaker 2>the organization between the front office and the head coaching staff, clearly,

0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:57.820
<v Speaker 2>because this is, to me, a Howie move. Like Howie,

0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:01.120
<v Speaker 2>he went to him and said, hey, we're not playing

0:16:01.140 --> 0:16:03.420
<v Speaker 2>Tanner again. I've seen enough. Let me see what this

0:16:03.460 --> 0:16:06.640
<v Speaker 2>kid Joe has. So we'll see. The Eagles this week,

0:16:07.380 --> 0:16:09.140
<v Speaker 2>you know, talked to a couple people in the locker room.

0:16:09.340 --> 0:16:11.120
<v Speaker 2>I've talked about it before. The locker room feels like

0:16:11.140 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 2>it's lost. But they said this week Hurts came in

0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.080
<v Speaker 2>and has been a very local, heavy presence in the

0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:18.490
<v Speaker 2>locker room. around the player. So maybe the guys rally

0:16:18.510 --> 0:16:21.580
<v Speaker 2>and play hard for Jalen Hurts. Who knows? But I

0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:22.940
<v Speaker 2>can't believe this number is held at three and a half.

0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:26.140
<v Speaker 2>Even with Joe Milton coming in, it hasn't budged. So

0:16:26.660 --> 0:16:28.300
<v Speaker 2>just shows you how much professional money is coming on

0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:28.960
<v Speaker 2>this Eagle side.

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:32.880
<v Speaker 1>Listen, we're talking a lot about prediction markets and I

0:16:35.660 --> 0:16:40.210
<v Speaker 1>think they're fascinating and they're a great tool. And while

0:16:40.230 --> 0:16:42.350
<v Speaker 1>I've been working on this book, it's allowed me to

0:16:42.410 --> 0:16:46.140
<v Speaker 1>experiment with them in ways that you can't As sort

0:16:46.180 --> 0:16:50.570
<v Speaker 1>of a regular better on sports books, specifically on Polymarket,

0:16:50.590 --> 0:16:55.570
<v Speaker 1>I built a custom market for the Bears, Bills, or

0:16:55.630 --> 0:16:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. If you pre-order my book,

0:16:59.780 --> 0:17:03.580
<v Speaker 1>The Number, which comes out January 12th, pre-order it between

0:17:03.660 --> 0:17:06.460
<v Speaker 1>now and November 30th. If one of those teams wins

0:17:06.500 --> 0:17:11.050
<v Speaker 1>it all, you will get your purchase price back. It's

0:17:11.090 --> 0:17:14.100
<v Speaker 1>not a raffle. It's not a drawing. The first 1,000

0:17:14.100 --> 0:17:16.580
<v Speaker 1>copies sold in this window are going to get refunded.

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:19.540
<v Speaker 1>If you like sports betting, if you want to read

0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:25.250
<v Speaker 1>about how $ 100 million bettors and billion-dollar prediction market traders

0:17:26.150 --> 0:17:30.449
<v Speaker 1>make decisions, think about risk, this is the book for you.

0:17:30.670 --> 0:17:35.220
<v Speaker 1>Go to chadmillman.com to pre-order. Sign up for this really

0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:42.470
<v Speaker 1>fun pre-roll on prediction markets. Simon. Denver, Carolina, you just

0:17:42.540 --> 0:17:44.080
<v Speaker 1>mentioned it. It's a two and a half. This was

0:17:44.140 --> 0:17:47.340
<v Speaker 1>Simon Says, the trade of the week presented by Polymarket.

0:17:47.859 --> 0:17:50.660
<v Speaker 1>It was trading at 46% the other day. I don't

0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:52.040
<v Speaker 1>want to jinx you. We are going to talk more

0:17:52.060 --> 0:17:56.859
<v Speaker 1>about this later in the show. Almost, Simon, almost a

0:17:56.960 --> 0:18:03.280
<v Speaker 1>luck rankings game, meaning the Panthers have been unlucky. The Broncos,

0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.359
<v Speaker 1>as we've said, they've been pulling rabbits out of their hat.

0:18:07.380 --> 0:18:10.240
<v Speaker 1>might have gotten to three for a second after we

0:18:10.260 --> 0:18:12.020
<v Speaker 1>were on the show. Cause I got it at three,

0:18:12.619 --> 0:18:15.960
<v Speaker 1>but it's generally a two and a half. And like

0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:18.700
<v Speaker 1>you said, the wise guys are aggressively coming in on Carolina.

0:18:19.540 --> 0:18:20.980
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it was three to a bunch of places. And

0:18:21.010 --> 0:18:23.710
<v Speaker 2>then definitely I think pros are the same view as

0:18:23.790 --> 0:18:25.810
<v Speaker 2>I did. It's just, you have to take the three

0:18:25.830 --> 0:18:28.590
<v Speaker 2>and bet this one down. And the general public is

0:18:28.609 --> 0:18:30.929
<v Speaker 2>going to absolutely hammer Denver. I, I assume this will

0:18:30.950 --> 0:18:33.149
<v Speaker 2>be one of the biggest needs of the shops this week. And,

0:18:33.810 --> 0:18:35.629
<v Speaker 2>Same with Polly Market. They're going to need the Panthers,

0:18:35.650 --> 0:18:39.090
<v Speaker 2>and that's always a nice position to be in. One

0:18:39.130 --> 0:18:41.970
<v Speaker 2>side is heavily overrated, and the public is hammering it.

0:18:41.970 --> 0:18:43.689
<v Speaker 2>And the Broncos, I don't want to be too hard

0:18:43.710 --> 0:18:45.870
<v Speaker 2>that they're overrated because that's not fair to say. They've

0:18:45.970 --> 0:18:47.870
<v Speaker 2>earned those wins. Bo Nix has played so well these

0:18:47.890 --> 0:18:51.780
<v Speaker 2>fourth quarters. All that noise, but they're definitely a team

0:18:51.820 --> 0:18:54.139
<v Speaker 2>that I think people think they're much better than they

0:18:54.220 --> 0:18:56.139
<v Speaker 2>are because they're leading their division. They just had a

0:18:56.180 --> 0:18:59.310
<v Speaker 2>huge win against the Chiefs where we both know like

0:18:59.330 --> 0:19:01.609
<v Speaker 2>this is a Denver team that from week to week,

0:19:01.630 --> 0:19:03.650
<v Speaker 2>you don't really know you're getting offensively from Bo Nix

0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:07.080
<v Speaker 2>and flip side for Carolina. I know they've dropped two

0:19:07.100 --> 0:19:09.379
<v Speaker 2>in a row here. I still think this is a

0:19:09.420 --> 0:19:11.760
<v Speaker 2>team that has a ton of potential and we've seen

0:19:11.780 --> 0:19:13.780
<v Speaker 2>that in certain games where when they put it all together,

0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:17.159
<v Speaker 2>they're a really good team. And I totally get why

0:19:17.180 --> 0:19:19.380
<v Speaker 2>people are kind of off of them right now. Right. That's,

0:19:19.820 --> 0:19:21.459
<v Speaker 2>that was a more surprising part was people are just

0:19:21.500 --> 0:19:24.240
<v Speaker 2>so dismissive of them where it's like, I mean, that

0:19:24.270 --> 0:19:26.370
<v Speaker 2>was a, that was a tough loss against, you know,

0:19:26.650 --> 0:19:30.910
<v Speaker 2>the bucks and, Yeah, it was super embarrassing, but they

0:19:30.930 --> 0:19:32.469
<v Speaker 2>go from playing the Bucs, who I just talked about

0:19:32.490 --> 0:19:34.170
<v Speaker 2>have a great defense, to playing Green Bay, where I

0:19:34.170 --> 0:19:36.180
<v Speaker 2>feel like in that Green Bay game, every little thing

0:19:36.220 --> 0:19:38.500
<v Speaker 2>was going wrong for them. They couldn't catch a break,

0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:41.159
<v Speaker 2>even when they had that big turnover where Jordan left,

0:19:41.180 --> 0:19:43.680
<v Speaker 2>there was a pick. They couldn't turn that into points.

0:19:43.940 --> 0:19:45.690
<v Speaker 2>Bryson went out there and threw a meatball himself and

0:19:45.710 --> 0:19:47.629
<v Speaker 2>threw it for a pick. So it was just an

0:19:47.850 --> 0:19:49.410
<v Speaker 2>off game where I think this is the exact type

0:19:49.430 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 2>of spot they had been. back. At home, in this

0:19:52.340 --> 0:19:55.460
<v Speaker 2>heat against the Broncos team that, it's just like I

0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:57.699
<v Speaker 2>keep saying, they just feel like they keep overachieving. And

0:19:58.580 --> 0:20:01.389
<v Speaker 2>they've won four straight games. Each one has been an

0:20:01.430 --> 0:20:04.470
<v Speaker 2>insane fourth quarter comeback other than that Arizona game. So,

0:20:04.510 --> 0:20:05.710
<v Speaker 2>it just feels like we're due for a little bit

0:20:05.750 --> 0:20:08.359
<v Speaker 2>of Bo Nix regression here at this point. Yeah. Yeah,

0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:10.030
<v Speaker 2>it's definitely a pro side. I'm not going to lie.

0:20:10.050 --> 0:20:12.950
<v Speaker 2>It's heavily, heavily public side in the Broncos.

0:20:13.430 --> 0:20:17.370
<v Speaker 1>It's also the side with Carolina that we tend to

0:20:17.450 --> 0:20:23.060
<v Speaker 1>want to be on. We like Ben Bryce Young when

0:20:23.100 --> 0:20:28.980
<v Speaker 1>he's at home as an underdog. The defense to me

0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:33.810
<v Speaker 1>for the Broncos, obviously their pass rush and their pressure

0:20:33.869 --> 0:20:37.379
<v Speaker 1>rate is excellent, but they are middling in a in

0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:40.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of other categories. The pressure rate is what

0:20:40.420 --> 0:20:44.500
<v Speaker 1>saves them. It's not what is like the best of many,

0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:48.960
<v Speaker 1>many different things. So there are opportunities here for the Panthers.

0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:54.560
<v Speaker 1>Detroit at Miami. Miami is a seven-point home underdog. I

0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:58.320
<v Speaker 1>think this had a chance to be brass balls. It

0:20:58.400 --> 0:21:01.540
<v Speaker 1>is not. The big news in this game is injuries.

0:21:02.380 --> 0:21:09.510
<v Speaker 1>Jack Campbell carted off the field, progressing well thankfully. Brian Branch,

0:21:09.910 --> 0:21:14.230
<v Speaker 1>concussion protocol, limited. Who knows if he's playing? Cade Mays,

0:21:14.270 --> 0:21:16.960
<v Speaker 1>the center, limited. Who knows if he's playing? DJ Reed,

0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:20.680
<v Speaker 1>limited in practice. Who knows if he's playing? Kirby Joseph,

0:21:20.700 --> 0:21:24.359
<v Speaker 1>the safety for the Lions, is out in this game.

0:21:24.859 --> 0:21:28.510
<v Speaker 1>Amon Ross St. Brown, limited in practice, a surprise with

0:21:28.550 --> 0:21:30.870
<v Speaker 1>a rib injury. You know, we've had a nice run

0:21:30.890 --> 0:21:32.690
<v Speaker 1>with the Dolphins. The line moved from eight and a

0:21:32.710 --> 0:21:34.930
<v Speaker 1>half to seven and a half to seven. It's been

0:21:34.970 --> 0:21:37.169
<v Speaker 1>sitting there. But now if you look at prediction markets,

0:21:37.730 --> 0:21:39.950
<v Speaker 1>it's priced at six and a half not seven and

0:21:39.970 --> 0:21:42.010
<v Speaker 1>a half which tells you there just continues to be

0:21:42.050 --> 0:21:45.910
<v Speaker 1>more money coming in on the dolphins i will say

0:21:45.930 --> 0:21:49.280
<v Speaker 1>i couldn't resist even though we missed the eight and

0:21:49.300 --> 0:21:51.560
<v Speaker 1>a half i played the dolphins at seven you.

0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:53.300
<v Speaker 2>Don't hate i take a small piece on about i

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:55.320
<v Speaker 2>don't know what to do with this one because i'm

0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:57.040
<v Speaker 2>worried i'm too close to a bit like i want

0:21:57.060 --> 0:21:59.720
<v Speaker 2>to hammer miami and chad just named all those injuries

0:21:59.740 --> 0:22:02.520
<v Speaker 2>that's making me want to bet even more and we've

0:22:02.580 --> 0:22:05.570
<v Speaker 2>talked like this is usually a good Good situation for

0:22:05.590 --> 0:22:09.570
<v Speaker 2>Miami facing a team in Detroit that as much praise

0:22:09.590 --> 0:22:13.560
<v Speaker 2>we give golf, isn't this outdoors in the elements? Aren't

0:22:13.580 --> 0:22:15.880
<v Speaker 2>they expected to have bad weather in this game as well?

0:22:15.900 --> 0:22:23.119
<v Speaker 3>I'm checking right now, Simon. They're basically been stuck in

0:22:23.220 --> 0:22:26.520
<v Speaker 3>like a hurricane situation.

0:22:34.150 --> 0:22:37.210
<v Speaker 2>Type of rain pattern for two weeks down in my

0:22:37.310 --> 0:22:40.129
<v Speaker 2>like miami area like there's some areas that have had

0:22:40.230 --> 0:22:42.669
<v Speaker 2>over like three inches of rain which if you don't

0:22:42.690 --> 0:22:44.159
<v Speaker 2>know what that means if you equate that to snow

0:22:44.180 --> 0:22:47.139
<v Speaker 2>that's like three feet of snow in 24 hours in

0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:50.300
<v Speaker 2>some areas of florida right now so we'll see if

0:22:50.340 --> 0:22:52.420
<v Speaker 2>it stays that way come sunday me and chad coming

0:22:52.440 --> 0:22:55.320
<v Speaker 2>here sunday morning it's a bad weather 1 p.m start

0:22:56.340 --> 0:22:58.080
<v Speaker 2>i feel like we're gonna be all over miami especially

0:22:58.100 --> 0:23:05.720
<v Speaker 2>with all the injuries chad just named They're a team

0:23:05.760 --> 0:23:07.810
<v Speaker 2>that has really bad cornerbacks that are saved by having

0:23:07.830 --> 0:23:10.389
<v Speaker 2>two really good safeties. Now both those safeties might be

0:23:10.430 --> 0:23:12.930
<v Speaker 2>out of this game. Like it's just, it keeps making

0:23:12.970 --> 0:23:15.310
<v Speaker 2>me want to take Miami. You know, I, I told you,

0:23:15.410 --> 0:23:16.790
<v Speaker 2>I'm trying to time it right when we get off

0:23:16.810 --> 0:23:19.370
<v Speaker 2>this Miami train. Cause I've been all over them now

0:23:19.410 --> 0:23:22.129
<v Speaker 2>for feels like a bunch of weeks. It's eventually going

0:23:22.150 --> 0:23:23.290
<v Speaker 2>to go the other way. The public is going to

0:23:23.330 --> 0:23:25.310
<v Speaker 2>catch up to eventually, but Chad just nailed it. It's like,

0:23:25.770 --> 0:23:28.869
<v Speaker 2>you look at the split charts, all the money, is

0:23:28.950 --> 0:23:33.170
<v Speaker 2>all over Miami. All the tickets are all over Detroit.

0:23:33.210 --> 0:23:35.450
<v Speaker 2>Like this week, I told you people, it's going to

0:23:35.470 --> 0:23:37.790
<v Speaker 2>be a week of some big heavy hitters in the

0:23:37.830 --> 0:23:40.290
<v Speaker 2>pro community taking big stands on some of these ugly dogs.

0:23:40.390 --> 0:23:42.810
<v Speaker 2>And this is another one. So yeah, don't be shocked

0:23:42.850 --> 0:23:45.629
<v Speaker 2>Sunday morning if we're in here taking this one. But obviously,

0:23:46.170 --> 0:23:47.520
<v Speaker 2>we're not crazy about the six and a half. We

0:23:47.540 --> 0:23:49.280
<v Speaker 2>want the seven, seven and a half. And that's why

0:23:49.300 --> 0:23:51.520
<v Speaker 2>you got to shop around right now. The best you

0:23:51.540 --> 0:23:52.340
<v Speaker 2>can get is seven.

0:23:52.940 --> 0:23:57.460
<v Speaker 1>All right, Simon, it is time for our Polymarket Brass

0:23:57.640 --> 0:24:02.280
<v Speaker 1>Balls Trade of the Week. I'm not surprised we're doing this,

0:24:02.340 --> 0:24:04.340
<v Speaker 1>and I can totally believe it, and I believe in it,

0:24:04.400 --> 0:24:08.530
<v Speaker 1>but we are going with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers trading

0:24:08.650 --> 0:24:12.510
<v Speaker 1>at six and a half at Polymarket, trading at 51%.

0:24:12.510 --> 0:24:15.590
<v Speaker 1>You know what it takes?

0:24:16.270 --> 0:24:17.810
<v Speaker 2>It takes brass balls.

0:24:20.450 --> 0:24:22.830
<v Speaker 1>When we were talking about this before the show... You

0:24:22.869 --> 0:24:29.330
<v Speaker 1>said the key phrase. Isn't this peak bears right now?

0:24:29.410 --> 0:24:33.340
<v Speaker 1>Like my experience on Monday night, it was a familial

0:24:34.170 --> 0:24:42.000
<v Speaker 1>experience across generational groups of friends, across my mom, my sister,

0:24:42.520 --> 0:24:46.320
<v Speaker 1>my niece, my brother-in-law who just got stuck on the

0:24:46.380 --> 0:24:51.379
<v Speaker 1>chain because my mom included him, my son. I mean...

0:24:51.770 --> 0:24:56.290
<v Speaker 1>There is nothing better. I texted with our boss, Colin Coward,

0:24:56.330 --> 0:24:59.449
<v Speaker 1>about this. He now lives in Chicago. There is nothing

0:24:59.510 --> 0:25:03.040
<v Speaker 1>better than the city of Chicago when the Bears are good.

0:25:03.060 --> 0:25:07.000
<v Speaker 1>It is a spirit and a feeling. You're buoyant, right?

0:25:08.440 --> 0:25:12.120
<v Speaker 1>But dude, six and a half against a defense. You

0:25:12.140 --> 0:25:15.939
<v Speaker 1>already said it on the show. The best three and

0:25:16.000 --> 0:25:21.800
<v Speaker 1>five DVOA team ever. There is something off. And we

0:25:21.840 --> 0:25:26.310
<v Speaker 1>are getting an opportunity, I think, of a couple points

0:25:26.330 --> 0:25:28.970
<v Speaker 1>of value because of what the Bears did against the

0:25:29.030 --> 0:25:30.030
<v Speaker 1>Seahawks on Monday night.

0:25:34.450 --> 0:25:38.810
<v Speaker 2>Every time you tell that story about getting your sister's

0:25:38.890 --> 0:25:40.729
<v Speaker 2>daughter or whatever into football, I just think of that

0:25:40.790 --> 0:25:45.790
<v Speaker 2>meme joke of my wife's husband's sister's boyfriend. It's like, what?

0:25:45.810 --> 0:25:46.710
<v Speaker 2>Too many moving parts.

0:25:48.380 --> 0:25:51.960
<v Speaker 1>My niece my niece is that easy enough.

0:25:51.780 --> 0:25:55.040
<v Speaker 2>For you thank you thank you uh yeah it's it's

0:25:55.060 --> 0:25:56.770
<v Speaker 2>just the numbers too big right i think we both

0:25:56.810 --> 0:26:00.470
<v Speaker 2>can agree on that where this at best probably should

0:26:00.490 --> 0:26:02.490
<v Speaker 2>be four and a half maybe three and a half

0:26:02.609 --> 0:26:05.370
<v Speaker 2>but i think people are just like us a little

0:26:05.390 --> 0:26:07.850
<v Speaker 2>uneasy about baker but when you really dive in the

0:26:07.890 --> 0:26:10.729
<v Speaker 2>numbers like this bucks defense is so good and this

0:26:10.800 --> 0:26:13.820
<v Speaker 2>is perfect test for them right a bulls old school

0:26:13.880 --> 0:26:16.140
<v Speaker 2>type of defense and top bowls playing against the new

0:26:16.200 --> 0:26:19.600
<v Speaker 2>school Ben, you know, Ben Johnson offense and nothing's really

0:26:19.619 --> 0:26:21.879
<v Speaker 2>stopped as Ben Johnson off the right. It's, he's been

0:26:21.900 --> 0:26:25.659
<v Speaker 2>absolutely juggernaut. The, the love for Caleb is just reaching

0:26:25.740 --> 0:26:28.399
<v Speaker 2>max level right now where, you know, people are debating,

0:26:28.480 --> 0:26:30.679
<v Speaker 2>is he a top three quarterback now? And is he

0:26:30.780 --> 0:26:33.510
<v Speaker 2>already made it? And you have other people on the line, these,

0:26:33.740 --> 0:26:36.540
<v Speaker 2>you know, They study the film, and they're posting the

0:26:36.580 --> 0:26:38.220
<v Speaker 2>clips where it's like, yeah, we give a ton of

0:26:38.240 --> 0:26:41.640
<v Speaker 2>praise to Caleb. Ben Johnson's got guys wide open for him.

0:26:41.720 --> 0:26:42.960
<v Speaker 1>He is scheming.

0:26:42.980 --> 0:26:45.780
<v Speaker 2>Wide open. Yeah, scheming the hell out of this right now.

0:26:45.880 --> 0:26:48.340
<v Speaker 1>He is so brilliant, it's frightening.

0:26:49.060 --> 0:26:50.960
<v Speaker 2>Yes. So we want to give a ton of flowers

0:26:51.000 --> 0:26:54.120
<v Speaker 2>to Caleb, obviously, but it's all Ben, really is, where

0:26:54.140 --> 0:26:57.400
<v Speaker 2>it's like you don't see guys five to ten yards

0:26:57.460 --> 0:27:00.909
<v Speaker 2>wide open against Seattle. It just doesn't happen. And he

0:27:00.930 --> 0:27:03.680
<v Speaker 2>had them on their heads spinning so hard. it didn't

0:27:03.700 --> 0:27:05.859
<v Speaker 2>happen just once or twice. It felt like the entire game,

0:27:06.140 --> 0:27:09.540
<v Speaker 2>there was guys schemed wide open. So we both are

0:27:09.600 --> 0:27:11.960
<v Speaker 2>well aware we're walking into here, right? We're walking into

0:27:12.020 --> 0:27:16.379
<v Speaker 2>literally the best team in football playing right now in

0:27:16.420 --> 0:27:18.800
<v Speaker 2>the bears. But my whole view is it just feels

0:27:18.820 --> 0:27:21.840
<v Speaker 2>like every week, this Bucks team has been consistently underrated, right?

0:27:21.880 --> 0:27:24.540
<v Speaker 2>And it's because we talked at nauseam about it. They

0:27:24.780 --> 0:27:26.440
<v Speaker 2>had a run that we'd never seen before. They had

0:27:26.660 --> 0:27:30.070
<v Speaker 2>not covered in 11 straight games and, Little did they

0:27:30.090 --> 0:27:31.609
<v Speaker 2>know that Baker getting hurt was going to change all that,

0:27:31.650 --> 0:27:33.350
<v Speaker 2>but it did it. It did something different to this

0:27:33.410 --> 0:27:37.420
<v Speaker 2>team where the defense played better after Baker went down.

0:27:37.660 --> 0:27:40.460
<v Speaker 2>Whatever that was, they started buying into both systems more,

0:27:40.480 --> 0:27:42.960
<v Speaker 2>and you've seen it these last couple weeks. I keep

0:27:42.980 --> 0:27:45.459
<v Speaker 2>bringing it up, like that Pittsburgh loss, which we had

0:27:45.520 --> 0:27:48.900
<v Speaker 2>money on, was a total outlier. What makes Aaron Rodgers

0:27:48.940 --> 0:27:50.639
<v Speaker 2>so great, he came back and got that game where

0:27:50.680 --> 0:27:52.570
<v Speaker 2>they were down, I think it was like 19-6 or

0:27:52.590 --> 0:27:55.570
<v Speaker 2>19-10 or whatever it was in that fourth quarter, able

0:27:55.590 --> 0:27:57.409
<v Speaker 2>to come back tight and obviously win by a touchdown

0:27:57.430 --> 0:28:00.810
<v Speaker 2>in overtime, but Every other game, Carolina beat a 43-13.

0:28:00.880 --> 0:28:03.380
<v Speaker 2>It was based on their run game and the defense.

0:28:03.810 --> 0:28:05.570
<v Speaker 2>Last week against Atlanta, it was based on their run

0:28:05.590 --> 0:28:09.830
<v Speaker 2>game and the defense. Now, the Bears with Jeffrey Simmons,

0:28:09.910 --> 0:28:11.250
<v Speaker 2>maybe this will throw a little bit of a wrench

0:28:11.290 --> 0:28:14.150
<v Speaker 2>into this, but we've seen this Bears team. You can

0:28:14.190 --> 0:28:16.040
<v Speaker 2>run on them. That's what I'm saying. Simmons might be

0:28:16.060 --> 0:28:18.040
<v Speaker 2>the difference maker now with that. We have not seen

0:28:18.080 --> 0:28:22.700
<v Speaker 2>him in the middle, but Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell

0:28:22.760 --> 0:28:24.919
<v Speaker 2>is a way different run scheme than they just went

0:28:24.940 --> 0:28:27.510
<v Speaker 2>against Seattle. This is you could say one of the

0:28:27.550 --> 0:28:30.690
<v Speaker 2>best two-headed running backs in the entire NFL right now.

0:28:30.730 --> 0:28:33.960
<v Speaker 2>And the Bucs are leaning into it. So I'm really

0:28:33.980 --> 0:28:35.820
<v Speaker 2>excited to see where this number goes. You've easily seen

0:28:35.840 --> 0:28:38.660
<v Speaker 2>this drop to six, potentially five and a half. So, yeah,

0:28:38.680 --> 0:28:40.100
<v Speaker 2>I'm making the brass bells because I want people to

0:28:40.120 --> 0:28:43.230
<v Speaker 2>grab the six and a half now. And I get it.

0:28:43.440 --> 0:28:45.250
<v Speaker 2>It takes some balls here to deck this one, people.

0:28:45.290 --> 0:28:47.710
<v Speaker 2>I know it's tough to make, but I think you're

0:28:47.870 --> 0:28:49.770
<v Speaker 2>not understanding. You're getting two free points of value here

0:28:49.810 --> 0:28:52.050
<v Speaker 2>on the side that they're not as bad as the

0:28:52.090 --> 0:28:54.660
<v Speaker 2>record shows. Like I said, they're three and five. But

0:28:54.760 --> 0:28:56.440
<v Speaker 2>DVOA just shows they're one of the best teams to

0:28:56.460 --> 0:28:59.360
<v Speaker 2>ever be in that position. And this defense has been

0:28:59.440 --> 0:29:02.490
<v Speaker 2>great this season, and there's not good enough respect. So, yeah,

0:29:02.530 --> 0:29:05.390
<v Speaker 2>really excited for this one, obviously. And I'm happy you're

0:29:05.410 --> 0:29:06.670
<v Speaker 2>joining me on this position because I was wondering what

0:29:06.690 --> 0:29:07.670
<v Speaker 2>I was going to ask you about where it's like,

0:29:07.690 --> 0:29:09.110
<v Speaker 2>I know it's a tough one to take here, but

0:29:09.510 --> 0:29:11.170
<v Speaker 2>this one's too hard to pass on for me.

0:29:11.810 --> 0:29:16.240
<v Speaker 1>Listen, I'm with you 100% that it should be brass balls.

0:29:17.120 --> 0:29:19.760
<v Speaker 1>Just so people know, before the show, I had four

0:29:19.840 --> 0:29:25.720
<v Speaker 1>games that I– thought could be brass balls contenders. I

0:29:25.820 --> 0:29:29.500
<v Speaker 1>listed them for Simon. There was one game that I

0:29:29.540 --> 0:29:32.470
<v Speaker 1>think overlapped between what you were considering and what I

0:29:32.510 --> 0:29:36.870
<v Speaker 1>was considering. And this was the one. So I'm totally

0:29:36.910 --> 0:29:41.740
<v Speaker 1>into it. In my betting fund, that I do with

0:29:41.800 --> 0:29:44.120
<v Speaker 1>all my buddies in which I manage our investments week

0:29:44.140 --> 0:29:48.350
<v Speaker 1>to week, in which everyone is from Chicago except for

0:29:48.420 --> 0:29:52.870
<v Speaker 1>one dude, I'm not sure I can put Tampa in

0:29:52.930 --> 0:29:59.840
<v Speaker 1>because it will just drag down our enjoyment. But 100%.

0:29:59.840 --> 0:30:02.880
<v Speaker 1>It's going to be brass balls. I need to tell

0:30:02.920 --> 0:30:06.120
<v Speaker 1>you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the

0:30:06.140 --> 0:30:08.540
<v Speaker 1>best new way to trade in sports. In the past,

0:30:08.580 --> 0:30:10.140
<v Speaker 1>if you wanted action on the game, you'd put some

0:30:10.180 --> 0:30:12.400
<v Speaker 1>money in. And if your team was doing well and

0:30:12.440 --> 0:30:14.300
<v Speaker 1>you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or

0:30:14.340 --> 0:30:17.100
<v Speaker 1>take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market,

0:30:17.120 --> 0:30:19.620
<v Speaker 1>a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and

0:30:19.660 --> 0:30:22.740
<v Speaker 1>sell on your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket

0:30:22.780 --> 0:30:25.700
<v Speaker 1>is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll

0:30:25.770 --> 0:30:28.040
<v Speaker 1>never go back. Two of the other guys, they're giving

0:30:28.060 --> 0:30:30.239
<v Speaker 1>you a free $ 25 in your first trade when you

0:30:30.260 --> 0:30:34.300
<v Speaker 1>deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads,

0:30:34.340 --> 0:30:36.540
<v Speaker 1>a group chat where you can see what everyone is

0:30:36.600 --> 0:30:39.590
<v Speaker 1>trading on. Check the link in the description to join

0:30:39.630 --> 0:30:42.530
<v Speaker 1>my squad today and sweat pics together every Sunday in

0:30:42.550 --> 0:30:45.530
<v Speaker 1>the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and

0:30:45.610 --> 0:30:48.229
<v Speaker 1>use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get

0:30:48.230 --> 0:30:53.870
<v Speaker 1>$ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. The New York

0:30:53.950 --> 0:30:56.570
<v Speaker 1>Jets are visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. I made this

0:30:56.670 --> 0:31:01.070
<v Speaker 1>Chad's choice. It turns out not only is this Chad's choice,

0:31:01.630 --> 0:31:07.330
<v Speaker 1>this is the only luck rankings game of the week.

0:31:07.810 --> 0:31:09.950
<v Speaker 1>For those who don't know, Simon and I love the

0:31:09.990 --> 0:31:13.510
<v Speaker 1>luck rankings, an invention by our old buddy, Dr. Nick

0:31:13.530 --> 0:31:17.790
<v Speaker 1>Giffen at Action Network. Nick Giffen's a genius. He's a

0:31:17.810 --> 0:31:22.060
<v Speaker 1>doctor because he has graduate degrees in math, put together

0:31:22.080 --> 0:31:25.650
<v Speaker 1>this formula that categorizes lucky teams versus unlucky teams and

0:31:25.670 --> 0:31:28.940
<v Speaker 1>finds the edge in the market. This is the only

0:31:29.120 --> 0:31:32.840
<v Speaker 1>one that made the luck rankings this week. Luck rankings

0:31:33.000 --> 0:31:39.240
<v Speaker 1>pick since 2018 of underdogs at a touchdown or more

0:31:40.240 --> 0:31:46.050
<v Speaker 1>are 20 and four and two against the spread, Simon.

0:31:46.050 --> 0:31:46.090
<v Speaker 2>83%.

0:31:46.090 --> 0:31:53.820
<v Speaker 1>I feel better about the Jets as a huge dog

0:31:54.160 --> 0:31:56.360
<v Speaker 1>than I did when I even chose them on Tuesday.

0:31:58.880 --> 0:32:01.500
<v Speaker 2>It's fair. I saw a very funny tweet that, um,

0:32:01.920 --> 0:32:04.700
<v Speaker 2>is this the biggest coaching mismatch in the history of

0:32:04.720 --> 0:32:08.060
<v Speaker 2>the NFL? Of course, Aaron Glenn's, uh, resume. And then

0:32:08.100 --> 0:32:11.350
<v Speaker 2>you look at Andy Reed's resume. It's, it is crazy.

0:32:11.390 --> 0:32:14.890
<v Speaker 2>And another crazy thing I saw is Aaron Glenn is

0:32:14.930 --> 0:32:19.430
<v Speaker 2>making $ 12 million this year. The Jets are paying him

0:32:19.430 --> 0:32:20.370
<v Speaker 2>$ 12 million.

0:32:20.410 --> 0:32:24.410
<v Speaker 1>Dude, it's the going rate. There was that story.

0:32:24.430 --> 0:32:26.810
<v Speaker 2>I know Brian Schottenheimer is the lowest paid coach in

0:32:26.830 --> 0:32:30.750
<v Speaker 2>the NFL at $ 5 million. But Heron Glenn making $ 12 million,

0:32:30.850 --> 0:32:32.650
<v Speaker 2>I literally cannot wrap my head around that. I couldn't

0:32:32.670 --> 0:32:35.620
<v Speaker 2>imagine being the owner of the Jets and that's okay

0:32:35.630 --> 0:32:38.080
<v Speaker 2>with me signing off on giving this man $ 12 million

0:32:38.120 --> 0:32:38.340
<v Speaker 2>a year.

0:32:38.380 --> 0:32:40.760
<v Speaker 1>You could also argue that the reason the Jets are

0:32:40.800 --> 0:32:43.719
<v Speaker 1>unlucky is because their coaching is so bad. So they

0:32:43.780 --> 0:32:48.110
<v Speaker 1>end up getting these terrible decisions on top of plays

0:32:48.130 --> 0:32:51.990
<v Speaker 1>that might not go their way. And it's exacerbated because

0:32:52.030 --> 0:32:55.930
<v Speaker 1>the coaching is so freaking bad. I mean, look, Mike

0:32:55.970 --> 0:32:59.520
<v Speaker 1>Tomlin said it on Sunday Night Football. He's like, if

0:32:59.560 --> 0:33:01.460
<v Speaker 1>you're that bad in the final two minutes of the

0:33:01.500 --> 0:33:03.380
<v Speaker 1>first half and the end of the game, then what

0:33:03.400 --> 0:33:06.280
<v Speaker 1>you do is that's all you coach for the week

0:33:06.700 --> 0:33:10.690
<v Speaker 1>is you coach those two-minute segments. Aaron Glenn doesn't do that.

0:33:11.410 --> 0:33:14.550
<v Speaker 1>They're a terribly coached team. You're not wrong. And that

0:33:14.590 --> 0:33:16.209
<v Speaker 1>could be why they're so unlucky.

0:33:17.640 --> 0:33:19.660
<v Speaker 2>It's a lot like solid. I will never get these

0:33:19.720 --> 0:33:24.940
<v Speaker 2>organizations that get these defensive guys where I get the

0:33:25.020 --> 0:33:26.920
<v Speaker 2>idea of it, but we've just seen the NFL now.

0:33:26.980 --> 0:33:29.420
<v Speaker 2>It doesn't seem like it works. Going out and getting

0:33:29.440 --> 0:33:33.110
<v Speaker 2>the defensive coach, like Aaron Glenn's defense gave up, what

0:33:33.130 --> 0:33:35.890
<v Speaker 2>was it, 38 to the Vegas? Yeah. They gave up

0:33:35.890 --> 0:33:40.530
<v Speaker 2>28 to Miami. Are those a couple of juggernauts we're

0:33:40.550 --> 0:33:41.970
<v Speaker 2>talking about here? I mean, they gave up 19 to

0:33:42.010 --> 0:33:46.380
<v Speaker 2>New England without any receivers either. It's like, I just

0:33:46.540 --> 0:33:48.240
<v Speaker 2>don't really get it. So that one jumped out to

0:33:48.260 --> 0:33:51.740
<v Speaker 2>me right away. Yeah, obviously it's a giant coaching mismatch. Me,

0:33:51.780 --> 0:33:53.700
<v Speaker 2>you tried to look into that stuff too much, but

0:33:54.550 --> 0:33:55.950
<v Speaker 2>that definitely jumped out to me. I had a bunch

0:33:55.970 --> 0:33:57.390
<v Speaker 2>of people bring it up to me, pros. Because I

0:33:57.390 --> 0:33:59.110
<v Speaker 2>was asking why pros are betting the Chiefs. I just

0:33:59.130 --> 0:34:01.950
<v Speaker 2>didn't really get it. I know some smart guys who

0:34:01.970 --> 0:34:03.570
<v Speaker 2>are taking positions on the Chiefs at 9.5, and they're

0:34:03.590 --> 0:34:06.480
<v Speaker 2>taking the 10. It's like, I'm shocked. I thought it

0:34:06.520 --> 0:34:09.040
<v Speaker 2>was going to be all pros all over this Jets number,

0:34:09.080 --> 0:34:10.739
<v Speaker 2>especially this big and what Chad is talking about, where

0:34:10.780 --> 0:34:14.110
<v Speaker 2>it's like, jets once again they're not as bad as

0:34:14.120 --> 0:34:17.629
<v Speaker 2>the people perceive like this season the only time they

0:34:17.650 --> 0:34:20.850
<v Speaker 2>got blown out well i guess yeah they got blown

0:34:20.910 --> 0:34:24.750
<v Speaker 2>out by the bears 23 12 with a backup quarterback

0:34:24.850 --> 0:34:27.950
<v Speaker 2>obviously um but if you go back and watch that

0:34:27.989 --> 0:34:31.290
<v Speaker 2>game like there's so many things where the bears could

0:34:31.310 --> 0:34:33.290
<v Speaker 2>have won that game by 20 more points like i

0:34:33.350 --> 0:34:34.930
<v Speaker 2>don't know if you remember that game but it was

0:34:34.950 --> 0:34:35.250
<v Speaker 2>like they.

0:34:35.190 --> 0:34:37.410
<v Speaker 1>Had tons of turnovers totally.

0:34:37.070 --> 0:34:39.210
<v Speaker 2>Like the bears dominated that game so the jets i

0:34:39.980 --> 0:34:42.020
<v Speaker 2>They've been this wonky team. They have been very competitive

0:34:42.040 --> 0:34:43.620
<v Speaker 2>and played close, but they've also had a couple of

0:34:43.660 --> 0:34:46.640
<v Speaker 2>real stinkers. So I totally get why there's pros that

0:34:46.680 --> 0:34:48.259
<v Speaker 2>hesitant in this one. I'll support you. I'll be a

0:34:48.280 --> 0:34:50.509
<v Speaker 2>good friend here on the Jets. But I'm honestly, I

0:34:51.090 --> 0:34:53.290
<v Speaker 2>have very small amount of money invested in this Jets side.

0:34:53.330 --> 0:34:56.089
<v Speaker 2>I just, there's other games this week that are just

0:34:56.150 --> 0:34:58.950
<v Speaker 2>as gross that I'm investing in, but I'm with you.

0:34:58.969 --> 0:35:01.049
<v Speaker 2>Like this number 10, I'm going to have a hard

0:35:01.090 --> 0:35:02.660
<v Speaker 2>time avoiding it. It just feels like it's way too

0:35:02.680 --> 0:35:05.580
<v Speaker 2>many points for a Chiefs team that they don't scare you.

0:35:05.600 --> 0:35:08.120
<v Speaker 2>I mean, they really don't offensively and defensively. Like Chad said,

0:35:08.140 --> 0:35:11.260
<v Speaker 2>they get no pressure. And that's great news for Geno.

0:35:11.280 --> 0:35:13.320
<v Speaker 2>They might be down there two corners as well. So

0:35:14.100 --> 0:35:16.180
<v Speaker 2>we'll wait and see, right? They got their own injuries

0:35:16.219 --> 0:35:18.220
<v Speaker 2>right now. Like they might be down their number one receiver,

0:35:18.239 --> 0:35:21.640
<v Speaker 2>the Jets. I thought about that. Yeah, they might still

0:35:21.660 --> 0:35:23.109
<v Speaker 2>be down their number one running back. So there are

0:35:23.170 --> 0:35:26.549
<v Speaker 2>some questions right now about this Jets offense, obviously. But

0:35:27.090 --> 0:35:30.290
<v Speaker 2>like Chad's talking points were the biggest one. Geno not

0:35:30.310 --> 0:35:32.910
<v Speaker 2>getting any pressure. He's been great this year and he's

0:35:32.950 --> 0:35:35.339
<v Speaker 2>got time in the pocket. So I get your read

0:35:35.360 --> 0:35:37.080
<v Speaker 2>on this game. I'm just having a tough time pulling

0:35:37.100 --> 0:35:37.439
<v Speaker 2>the trigger.

0:35:38.110 --> 0:35:40.820
<v Speaker 1>I thought about Garrett Wilson. He's in the concussion protocol.

0:35:40.860 --> 0:35:41.500
<v Speaker 1>He might not play.

0:35:41.860 --> 0:35:42.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:35:43.219 --> 0:35:46.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if that's enough of a move. Like, Gino,

0:35:46.540 --> 0:35:49.240
<v Speaker 1>when he's not getting pressure, it's not like Garrett Wilson

0:35:49.280 --> 0:35:51.560
<v Speaker 1>is the only guy he's throwing to. And honestly, in

0:35:51.600 --> 0:35:54.540
<v Speaker 1>that Raiders game, he was throwing to A.D. Mitchell and

0:35:54.600 --> 0:35:57.700
<v Speaker 1>Kenyon Sadiq, and he was finding a lot of other options,

0:35:58.840 --> 0:36:02.600
<v Speaker 1>especially against a secondary that you said, we already know

0:36:03.100 --> 0:36:06.910
<v Speaker 1>they're going to be down. Legereus Sneed, he's on IR.

0:36:08.070 --> 0:36:11.290
<v Speaker 1>Mansour Delon, we don't know yet. He's got a shoulder injury.

0:36:11.790 --> 0:36:13.690
<v Speaker 1>It might just be something that he's got to play through.

0:36:13.710 --> 0:36:16.690
<v Speaker 1>He was limited in practice. But if he's not getting pressure,

0:36:16.710 --> 0:36:21.009
<v Speaker 1>Gino's a professional quarterback. He's going to find guys that

0:36:21.050 --> 0:36:24.069
<v Speaker 1>are open. And I do think that they expect to

0:36:24.110 --> 0:36:27.260
<v Speaker 1>have Brees Hall back this week. And with the development

0:36:27.280 --> 0:36:30.259
<v Speaker 1>to Braylon Allen and Brees Hall coming back, I think

0:36:30.280 --> 0:36:32.640
<v Speaker 1>that gives them a little bit of a dynamic offensively

0:36:33.200 --> 0:36:35.200
<v Speaker 1>that they haven't been able to execute and probably haven't

0:36:35.260 --> 0:36:38.380
<v Speaker 1>tried to execute because they didn't know sort of how

0:36:38.560 --> 0:36:43.250
<v Speaker 1>effective Braylon Allen could be. Look, I could be talking

0:36:43.290 --> 0:36:46.290
<v Speaker 1>myself into it. I could have some bias here. I

0:36:46.310 --> 0:36:49.170
<v Speaker 1>could be looking for reasons, but I'm not afraid of it.

0:36:49.530 --> 0:36:50.950
<v Speaker 1>Am I afraid of it at nine and a half

0:36:50.989 --> 0:36:53.730
<v Speaker 1>in the contest versus betting it at 10? I'll be clear.

0:36:53.930 --> 0:36:56.210
<v Speaker 1>I bet it at 10, not nine and a half.

0:36:56.270 --> 0:37:00.300
<v Speaker 1>I waited to get to 10. So we'll have that conversation.

0:37:01.420 --> 0:37:04.080
<v Speaker 1>A couple of games I want to get to quickly.

0:37:04.940 --> 0:37:07.860
<v Speaker 1>Cleveland and New Orleans, New Orleans is minus three. Now

0:37:08.380 --> 0:37:10.640
<v Speaker 1>could get to three and a half. A lot of

0:37:10.680 --> 0:37:14.560
<v Speaker 1>that is because Deshaun Watson unexpectedly announced in the concussion protocol.

0:37:15.080 --> 0:37:16.400
<v Speaker 1>We may get Shador Sanders.

0:37:19.200 --> 0:37:21.609
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Again, I got lucky on, I bet the saints

0:37:22.239 --> 0:37:23.890
<v Speaker 2>minus one and a half because the line had moved.

0:37:24.410 --> 0:37:24.850
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:37:25.030 --> 0:37:26.750
<v Speaker 2>Pros have come in on Cleveland and I got a

0:37:26.770 --> 0:37:30.410
<v Speaker 2>better room of the saints, but it obviously it's a

0:37:30.450 --> 0:37:33.520
<v Speaker 2>downgrade with Shador. Um, it does throw a little bit

0:37:33.540 --> 0:37:36.380
<v Speaker 2>of randomness into this position where I think most of

0:37:36.460 --> 0:37:38.420
<v Speaker 2>us have the position of like, don't we hammer the

0:37:38.440 --> 0:37:42.130
<v Speaker 2>Saints here? Like Shador coming in cold. You expect them

0:37:42.150 --> 0:37:44.370
<v Speaker 2>to struggle here, especially where I think he kind of

0:37:44.390 --> 0:37:46.489
<v Speaker 2>like mocked the Saints defense a little bit in an

0:37:46.510 --> 0:37:48.890
<v Speaker 2>interview he did where you know the coach is going

0:37:48.910 --> 0:37:50.210
<v Speaker 2>to show that to these guys where it's like this

0:37:50.630 --> 0:37:52.989
<v Speaker 2>bench player is laughing at you guys. It's not even

0:37:53.010 --> 0:37:56.259
<v Speaker 2>their starters mocking you guys. So that's easy bulletin board

0:37:56.300 --> 0:38:00.600
<v Speaker 2>material for the Saints team. And it's another game where

0:38:00.620 --> 0:38:03.770
<v Speaker 2>it's like, I have so many ugly, gross games I'm

0:38:03.790 --> 0:38:05.870
<v Speaker 2>betting this week, I could easily avoid this game.

0:38:06.350 --> 0:38:06.610
<v Speaker 1>Great.

0:38:07.090 --> 0:38:08.750
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Great.

0:38:09.550 --> 0:38:15.390
<v Speaker 1>Indy is hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Again, this one is moved.

0:38:15.450 --> 0:38:17.870
<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry. I missed. Well, Matt will do it, and

0:38:17.910 --> 0:38:21.330
<v Speaker 1>then I'll go back. Indy is hosting the Cowboys. Went

0:38:21.370 --> 0:38:23.710
<v Speaker 1>down from six to five and a half. I've kind

0:38:23.750 --> 0:38:25.649
<v Speaker 1>of been hesitating because I didn't know if Jonathan Taylor

0:38:25.670 --> 0:38:28.090
<v Speaker 1>was going to be on this team. But at a number,

0:38:28.110 --> 0:38:31.920
<v Speaker 1>the Cowboys really don't deserve to be this big of

0:38:31.960 --> 0:38:35.630
<v Speaker 1>favorites with this bad of an offense or defense against anybody,

0:38:36.070 --> 0:38:37.830
<v Speaker 1>which is why the wise guys you mentioned in sharp

0:38:37.850 --> 0:38:38.930
<v Speaker 1>calls are coming in on the Colts.

0:38:40.310 --> 0:38:41.950
<v Speaker 2>I know. That's why I hate this week though. Cause

0:38:41.969 --> 0:38:43.529
<v Speaker 2>they're telling me I have to bet the Colts. I

0:38:43.570 --> 0:38:45.700
<v Speaker 2>don't want to, I don't want to at all, but

0:38:45.739 --> 0:38:49.319
<v Speaker 2>I have to apparently. And like Chad said, like there's

0:38:49.360 --> 0:38:52.219
<v Speaker 2>another number where if you were lucky and you got

0:38:52.260 --> 0:38:54.020
<v Speaker 2>to six or six and a half, good as to

0:38:54.060 --> 0:38:56.460
<v Speaker 2>you because it's, it really went away. I did not

0:38:56.480 --> 0:38:57.710
<v Speaker 2>think it was going to go. I thought this was

0:38:57.750 --> 0:39:00.870
<v Speaker 2>going to be, such a huge public side, which, you know,

0:39:00.890 --> 0:39:02.529
<v Speaker 2>the teasers, the money line bets, like people are going

0:39:02.550 --> 0:39:05.340
<v Speaker 2>to be hammering this Cowboys side. And the general public

0:39:05.480 --> 0:39:07.940
<v Speaker 2>is like, they're getting tons of the tickets, but like

0:39:07.960 --> 0:39:09.980
<v Speaker 2>Chad said, a bunch of, bunch of money is coming

0:39:10.020 --> 0:39:13.140
<v Speaker 2>now on this cold side. That's really sharp. So even

0:39:13.160 --> 0:39:16.390
<v Speaker 2>if you're looking at different betting charts, it's like 80%

0:39:16.390 --> 0:39:17.930
<v Speaker 2>of the money, 80% of the tickets are all in

0:39:17.969 --> 0:39:21.169
<v Speaker 2>the Cowboys, that 10% or that 20% of the money,

0:39:21.350 --> 0:39:23.650
<v Speaker 2>that really sharp money is coming to the Colts. It's

0:39:23.690 --> 0:39:26.410
<v Speaker 2>moved at a point through key numbers It moved it

0:39:26.469 --> 0:39:29.839
<v Speaker 2>from 6.5 through 6 down to 5.5. That's a big deal.

0:39:29.940 --> 0:39:32.739
<v Speaker 2>So it's a game I was hoping to avoid. I

0:39:32.800 --> 0:39:34.360
<v Speaker 2>know the line's too big. I know there's value in

0:39:34.380 --> 0:39:36.259
<v Speaker 2>the Colts, but Chad nailed it. It's like, I don't

0:39:36.320 --> 0:39:38.120
<v Speaker 2>know what I'm getting from this Colts team. Have they

0:39:38.140 --> 0:39:40.500
<v Speaker 2>given up? Have they quit on their coach in this season?

0:39:41.340 --> 0:39:43.970
<v Speaker 2>I mean, that game last week, Daniel Jones, he tried

0:39:44.030 --> 0:39:46.600
<v Speaker 2>his best. But everyone around him is just like, we

0:39:46.620 --> 0:39:48.760
<v Speaker 2>have no chance with this guy at quarterback. He's just

0:39:48.880 --> 0:39:51.440
<v Speaker 2>totally throwing meatballs and he's got no strength in his

0:39:51.480 --> 0:39:53.880
<v Speaker 2>lower body to try to run the ball either. It's just,

0:39:54.580 --> 0:39:56.900
<v Speaker 2>it's a huge injury. Like Achilles, we gave him a

0:39:56.920 --> 0:39:58.399
<v Speaker 2>ton of respect coming into the year, but we talked

0:39:58.420 --> 0:40:00.160
<v Speaker 2>coming into the year. It's like, how are you going

0:40:00.180 --> 0:40:02.239
<v Speaker 2>to bet the win total over of the Colts? And

0:40:02.260 --> 0:40:05.279
<v Speaker 2>you have a quarterback coming in seven months removed from

0:40:05.340 --> 0:40:08.779
<v Speaker 2>Achilles injury. It was just too much. And on the

0:40:08.820 --> 0:40:11.000
<v Speaker 2>flip side, everything's going wrong for the Colts. Their defense

0:40:11.020 --> 0:40:14.969
<v Speaker 2>has been terrible. And yeah, for me, from the standpoint of,

0:40:15.960 --> 0:40:17.420
<v Speaker 2>This is a week where the pros are taking a

0:40:17.440 --> 0:40:20.200
<v Speaker 2>stand on all these terrible teams that are last in

0:40:20.620 --> 0:40:24.420
<v Speaker 2>its effort. It's the Chargers. It's the Eagles. It's the Colts.

0:40:25.320 --> 0:40:26.759
<v Speaker 2>We have a lot of ugly, gross teams we can

0:40:26.820 --> 0:40:28.969
<v Speaker 2>play that we believe in. Will the Colts end up

0:40:28.989 --> 0:40:30.069
<v Speaker 2>being one of those teams? I don't know as we

0:40:30.090 --> 0:40:31.469
<v Speaker 2>sit here right now because I'm with Chad. It's like

0:40:32.070 --> 0:40:33.830
<v Speaker 2>I don't want to bet this number, and often Jonathan

0:40:33.850 --> 0:40:37.089
<v Speaker 2>Taylor's traded Seattle. This number balloons up to 7.5-8. I

0:40:37.489 --> 0:40:39.970
<v Speaker 2>know it sounds crazy to think Jonathan Taylor's worth two points,

0:40:40.730 --> 0:40:43.250
<v Speaker 2>and this matchup he is. If there is no Jonathan Taylor–

0:40:43.500 --> 0:40:45.400
<v Speaker 2>To me, there is no bet on the Colts. We

0:40:45.440 --> 0:40:47.860
<v Speaker 2>need our run game here to support Daniel Jones in

0:40:47.880 --> 0:40:50.470
<v Speaker 2>this offense. So I'm like you. I'll be patient on it.

0:40:50.480 --> 0:40:52.589
<v Speaker 2>We've already missed the best of the number. But, yeah,

0:40:52.620 --> 0:40:54.810
<v Speaker 2>we come in here Sunday morning. Jonathan Taylor's still on

0:40:54.830 --> 0:40:56.870
<v Speaker 2>the team. It's still five and a half. All the

0:40:56.890 --> 0:40:59.390
<v Speaker 2>money in the world is on the Cowboys. How do

0:40:59.410 --> 0:41:01.069
<v Speaker 2>we avoid this game? It's going to be very, very

0:41:01.170 --> 0:41:02.650
<v Speaker 2>tempting to put the Colts in our contest.

0:41:05.030 --> 0:41:09.219
<v Speaker 1>I apologize, Matt Mitchell. I skipped over Rams and Commanders.

0:41:09.640 --> 0:41:12.359
<v Speaker 1>And I'm surprised this number has moved down from five

0:41:12.380 --> 0:41:15.000
<v Speaker 1>and a half to four and a half. I can't

0:41:15.060 --> 0:41:18.120
<v Speaker 1>really figure out why, because the way we've been talking

0:41:18.160 --> 0:41:20.279
<v Speaker 1>about it all week, the wise guys were going to

0:41:20.320 --> 0:41:24.259
<v Speaker 1>be on the Rams. Now they've lost Jalen Watson, their

0:41:24.300 --> 0:41:27.700
<v Speaker 1>cornerback for the year with a shoulder injury. But should

0:41:27.739 --> 0:41:31.200
<v Speaker 1>that move the number a full point from five and

0:41:31.239 --> 0:41:33.640
<v Speaker 1>a half to four and a half? Like somebody, I

0:41:33.880 --> 0:41:36.720
<v Speaker 1>don't know if it's a group, Simon, somebody is coming

0:41:36.860 --> 0:41:40.790
<v Speaker 1>in on the commanders pretty heavily. with this number when

0:41:40.810 --> 0:41:41.629
<v Speaker 1>it was at five and a half.

0:41:43.650 --> 0:41:46.610
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. It's another, another instance of, I think there are

0:41:46.630 --> 0:41:48.089
<v Speaker 2>a lot of pro groups out that I still don't

0:41:48.130 --> 0:41:51.140
<v Speaker 2>believe in this Rams team. And if you look at

0:41:51.180 --> 0:41:54.200
<v Speaker 2>underlying numbers, there are some stuff to point out to that. Yeah.

0:41:54.719 --> 0:41:57.460
<v Speaker 2>Other than the pressure rate they're getting from their defensive line,

0:41:58.020 --> 0:42:00.700
<v Speaker 2>their defense is actually kind of terrible, this Rams team.

0:42:00.840 --> 0:42:02.380
<v Speaker 2>And you could actually run the ball on them. And,

0:42:02.400 --> 0:42:05.080
<v Speaker 2>you know, Aaron Donald, as much as I was making

0:42:05.100 --> 0:42:07.649
<v Speaker 2>fun of him for coming back, You do see every

0:42:07.690 --> 0:42:09.969
<v Speaker 2>week he's getting a little better. He is getting his

0:42:10.010 --> 0:42:12.629
<v Speaker 2>steps back. He's getting his power moves back. And that's

0:42:12.650 --> 0:42:16.230
<v Speaker 2>to be expected, right? The NFL, no normal person, even

0:42:16.270 --> 0:42:17.750
<v Speaker 2>he is human enough that if you sit out for

0:42:17.790 --> 0:42:21.029
<v Speaker 2>two years, you do lose a step. It's just the

0:42:21.070 --> 0:42:23.630
<v Speaker 2>game moves so fast. These guys who didn't take a

0:42:23.670 --> 0:42:26.750
<v Speaker 2>year off were training football. You know, it's different than

0:42:26.770 --> 0:42:29.450
<v Speaker 2>lifting weights at home, right? Football strength is something totally

0:42:29.489 --> 0:42:31.940
<v Speaker 2>different than that. Like your body being in game shape

0:42:31.980 --> 0:42:34.640
<v Speaker 2>is totally different. So most of the guys I've talked

0:42:34.660 --> 0:42:38.070
<v Speaker 2>to took up positions on, This Washington team is really

0:42:38.090 --> 0:42:40.800
<v Speaker 2>what we've talked about with Jayden Daniels, right? Jayden Daniels

0:42:40.840 --> 0:42:43.580
<v Speaker 2>is electric. When he puts it together, he's so good,

0:42:43.600 --> 0:42:45.779
<v Speaker 2>especially escaping the pocket and getting outside the pocket. Now,

0:42:46.440 --> 0:42:48.860
<v Speaker 2>I know another injury like Terry McLaurin's out. That's another

0:42:49.200 --> 0:42:52.060
<v Speaker 2>big deal, right, for a team that, you know, relying

0:42:52.100 --> 0:42:57.290
<v Speaker 2>now heavily on digs. And to me, the tough part

0:42:57.330 --> 0:43:00.290
<v Speaker 2>I'm having one is with the line movement here. Like

0:43:00.350 --> 0:43:03.430
<v Speaker 2>Chad just said, it was five and a half. some

0:43:03.530 --> 0:43:05.800
<v Speaker 2>really smart pros have come in and bet this down.

0:43:05.880 --> 0:43:09.140
<v Speaker 2>Even the general public has shockingly joined this team, joined

0:43:09.160 --> 0:43:11.360
<v Speaker 2>the public. I mean, the pros and joined them and

0:43:11.440 --> 0:43:14.060
<v Speaker 2>betting this commander side. So yeah, it's, it's a line

0:43:14.080 --> 0:43:15.700
<v Speaker 2>I just don't get. And I'm missing something on here.

0:43:15.739 --> 0:43:19.200
<v Speaker 2>It's another game where it's a really bad team and

0:43:19.300 --> 0:43:21.549
<v Speaker 2>the pros are heavily back in them where I told Chad,

0:43:21.570 --> 0:43:23.589
<v Speaker 2>I wanted to be on the Rams here. So maybe

0:43:23.630 --> 0:43:25.190
<v Speaker 2>I can just avoid this game. Like I'm still going

0:43:25.230 --> 0:43:26.489
<v Speaker 2>to bet the Rams will still be on that side,

0:43:26.550 --> 0:43:29.129
<v Speaker 2>but yeah, Chad's not wrong. There's some really smart money

0:43:29.170 --> 0:43:31.580
<v Speaker 2>here coming on this commander side. And, I still just

0:43:31.600 --> 0:43:33.580
<v Speaker 2>look at this, I'm just like, man, this Rams team,

0:43:34.760 --> 0:43:37.010
<v Speaker 2>they're so much more complete. And I feel like last

0:43:37.210 --> 0:43:40.489
<v Speaker 2>couple weeks, I've just seen them getting better week to week.

0:43:40.510 --> 0:43:42.390
<v Speaker 2>Like that Vegas game they put up was a 35-21,

0:43:42.510 --> 0:43:45.750
<v Speaker 2>and then obviously they won last week 24-9. I feel

0:43:46.710 --> 0:43:48.910
<v Speaker 2>like we've seen something turn here after that Arizona loss.

0:43:48.930 --> 0:43:52.029
<v Speaker 2>Like that was such an embarrassing, humiliating thing. I really

0:43:52.050 --> 0:43:53.799
<v Speaker 2>am believing that McVay has gotten these guys on the

0:43:54.360 --> 0:43:56.500
<v Speaker 2>right path here. So, yeah, I'm just having a tough

0:43:56.520 --> 0:43:57.560
<v Speaker 2>time with this line here. I want to be on

0:43:57.580 --> 0:43:58.900
<v Speaker 2>the Rams, and it's not going my way.

0:43:59.600 --> 0:44:04.850
<v Speaker 1>Las Vegas Raiders, 10-point underdogs at the San Francisco 49ers.

0:44:04.890 --> 0:44:08.230
<v Speaker 1>It was at 9.5. It was at 10. Now, if

0:44:08.270 --> 0:44:10.489
<v Speaker 1>you look, you can shop around and you can get

0:44:10.489 --> 0:44:14.509
<v Speaker 1>9.5 or 10. So if you want the Niners, go

0:44:14.530 --> 0:44:16.989
<v Speaker 1>find the 9.5. If you want the Raiders, go find

0:44:17.010 --> 0:44:20.799
<v Speaker 1>the 10. I think we were partially waiting on this

0:44:20.840 --> 0:44:23.840
<v Speaker 1>to see if Kirk Cousins was going to get traded.

0:44:24.420 --> 0:44:29.020
<v Speaker 1>As always, a ton of injury news for the Niners.

0:44:29.780 --> 0:44:33.600
<v Speaker 1>including Mike Evans, who may not play. That's huge. This

0:44:33.680 --> 0:44:37.239
<v Speaker 1>is not the same team. I think Brock Purdy's quarterback

0:44:37.300 --> 0:44:42.460
<v Speaker 1>rating is half of what it is between when Evans

0:44:42.520 --> 0:44:47.390
<v Speaker 1>is on the field versus not on the field. Are

0:44:47.430 --> 0:44:49.130
<v Speaker 1>you ready to pull the trigger on the Raiders?

0:44:51.530 --> 0:44:53.430
<v Speaker 2>I am. And another number that just doesn't make sense

0:44:53.450 --> 0:44:55.370
<v Speaker 2>and it feels way too easy. It's my only fear here.

0:44:55.690 --> 0:44:58.689
<v Speaker 2>I can't believe we're getting 10 points here where this

0:44:58.730 --> 0:45:02.940
<v Speaker 2>Niners team Mike Evans and they're fully healthy defensively. Yeah.

0:45:02.960 --> 0:45:05.819
<v Speaker 2>I stay away like that, that perspective, the 49ers, they're

0:45:05.840 --> 0:45:07.400
<v Speaker 2>the best team in football. They deserve to have this

0:45:07.440 --> 0:45:09.880
<v Speaker 2>big of a spread, but that's not who they are

0:45:09.920 --> 0:45:12.089
<v Speaker 2>right now. They have a ton of injuries. And I mean,

0:45:12.110 --> 0:45:14.910
<v Speaker 2>you're just going through their schedule this year. It feels

0:45:14.930 --> 0:45:17.210
<v Speaker 2>like every game's kind of close, right? Even when they're

0:45:17.230 --> 0:45:19.649
<v Speaker 2>blowing teams out, they eventually let these teams back in.

0:45:20.130 --> 0:45:21.390
<v Speaker 2>That's something that jumps out to me right away where

0:45:21.410 --> 0:45:23.370
<v Speaker 2>it's like, I mean, you have made a living this

0:45:23.390 --> 0:45:26.450
<v Speaker 2>year off Kirk back doing teams. He just always comes

0:45:26.510 --> 0:45:29.839
<v Speaker 2>by and somehow finds a way. And, You know, this

0:45:29.880 --> 0:45:32.259
<v Speaker 2>is secretly one of the best rivalries in all of football, right?

0:45:32.340 --> 0:45:36.420
<v Speaker 2>Like the Bay Area versus formerly of Oakland Raiders. There's

0:45:36.440 --> 0:45:37.540
<v Speaker 2>going to be a lot of Raiders fans to me

0:45:37.560 --> 0:45:39.339
<v Speaker 2>in the stadium. Like they're going to travel for this

0:45:39.380 --> 0:45:41.839
<v Speaker 2>game to come see their former team that they love. And,

0:45:42.480 --> 0:45:46.259
<v Speaker 2>you know, at 4-4, this feels like a disrespectful line

0:45:46.280 --> 0:45:48.509
<v Speaker 2>to the Raiders as well. Like I just– that's my

0:45:48.530 --> 0:45:50.630
<v Speaker 2>hesitation here. I don't get it, and it feels like

0:45:51.510 --> 0:45:54.129
<v Speaker 2>I'm the stupid sucker sharp that's just walking right into

0:45:54.170 --> 0:45:56.779
<v Speaker 2>a trap here. It's like. after the game ends where

0:45:56.820 --> 0:45:58.700
<v Speaker 2>they get blown up by 20 points ago. Oh, that's

0:45:58.760 --> 0:46:00.879
<v Speaker 2>why it was 10. Cause to me, this is another

0:46:00.920 --> 0:46:05.589
<v Speaker 2>number where it's like six and a half. The money

0:46:05.610 --> 0:46:07.989
<v Speaker 2>will be evenly split at 10. It's going to be

0:46:08.070 --> 0:46:12.009
<v Speaker 2>all Raiders money. Like sure. Some, some groups, some pros

0:46:12.050 --> 0:46:13.529
<v Speaker 2>in the general public are going to tease and do

0:46:13.570 --> 0:46:16.210
<v Speaker 2>whatever this Niners number, but overall the public and most

0:46:16.270 --> 0:46:18.150
<v Speaker 2>pros I know they're going to hammer the Raiders here.

0:46:18.170 --> 0:46:22.010
<v Speaker 2>It's just so many points. And we've seen this Kubiak offense.

0:46:22.690 --> 0:46:26.060
<v Speaker 2>They can score like, you know, I love new coaches

0:46:26.080 --> 0:46:28.560
<v Speaker 2>that come in. They don't care where a guy was drafted.

0:46:29.739 --> 0:46:32.089
<v Speaker 2>Ashton Gentry has not performed well enough to be their

0:46:32.110 --> 0:46:34.170
<v Speaker 2>number one running back. So what do they do? They

0:46:34.190 --> 0:46:37.049
<v Speaker 2>made him their third down back. He's excelled. He's been

0:46:37.070 --> 0:46:39.110
<v Speaker 2>an incredible receiving back of the back foot for Kirk.

0:46:39.650 --> 0:46:42.069
<v Speaker 2>Washington has been a great one first down, second down

0:46:42.110 --> 0:46:44.890
<v Speaker 2>running back for them. That's what I want in a coach.

0:46:45.270 --> 0:46:46.850
<v Speaker 2>I do not care that you use number one pick

0:46:46.890 --> 0:46:48.850
<v Speaker 2>on this guy. Like I want the best player in

0:46:48.870 --> 0:46:51.290
<v Speaker 2>the best situation to play. that speaks to me a

0:46:51.290 --> 0:46:53.390
<v Speaker 2>lot to the guys inside the locker room, the Raiders.

0:46:53.410 --> 0:46:54.890
<v Speaker 2>They look at those type of things. That's how they

0:46:54.910 --> 0:46:57.550
<v Speaker 2>deal with those players where it's like, this guy doesn't care.

0:46:57.590 --> 0:46:59.040
<v Speaker 2>He's going to put the best guy out there for

0:46:59.060 --> 0:47:02.439
<v Speaker 2>the best situation. So Chad's not lying. If it's Mike

0:47:02.600 --> 0:47:04.879
<v Speaker 2>Evans out once again, because they're coming off a bye

0:47:04.920 --> 0:47:07.100
<v Speaker 2>week here. We don't really fully know who's going to

0:47:07.120 --> 0:47:10.120
<v Speaker 2>be playing right now for the 49ers, even though it's Thursday.

0:47:11.010 --> 0:47:15.090
<v Speaker 2>They let guys sit. Veteran, like, you know, their coaching staff,

0:47:15.510 --> 0:47:19.640
<v Speaker 2>Shannon's very cool about these veteran guys. Like they're, All

0:47:19.700 --> 0:47:22.980
<v Speaker 2>four letting guys sit. Like McCaffrey, we saw last year,

0:47:23.020 --> 0:47:26.000
<v Speaker 2>McCaffrey wouldn't practice all week. And then he'd be playing

0:47:26.000 --> 0:47:29.620
<v Speaker 2>30 to 40 carries, you know, come that Sunday. So

0:47:30.100 --> 0:47:31.380
<v Speaker 2>that's what I'm having a tough time with. I don't

0:47:31.400 --> 0:47:33.009
<v Speaker 2>know if Mike Evans is playing. And me and you

0:47:33.030 --> 0:47:35.610
<v Speaker 2>have been banging the drum about this. That was a

0:47:35.620 --> 0:47:37.330
<v Speaker 2>big reason we faded them last week against Atlanta. It's

0:47:37.390 --> 0:47:39.250
<v Speaker 2>like you can't underestimate how big of a deal this

0:47:39.310 --> 0:47:43.549
<v Speaker 2>guy is to this team. And his last game he

0:47:43.570 --> 0:47:46.509
<v Speaker 2>played was against Seattle. They won that game, obviously. They

0:47:46.530 --> 0:47:48.950
<v Speaker 2>didn't cover against Washington. They obviously didn't cover against Atlanta.

0:47:49.560 --> 0:47:52.060
<v Speaker 2>You can factor those margins. That difference comes down to

0:47:52.080 --> 0:47:54.279
<v Speaker 2>Mike Evans. Him not being there on third downs, that's

0:47:54.320 --> 0:47:57.100
<v Speaker 2>such a big deal. And Chad gave you that pass rating.

0:47:57.239 --> 0:47:59.859
<v Speaker 2>That's a big deal. Their drop-off from Brock Purdy having

0:47:59.900 --> 0:48:02.680
<v Speaker 2>Mike Evans not, the numbers play that out. It makes

0:48:02.719 --> 0:48:05.790
<v Speaker 2>total sense. Yeah, just too many points. At the end

0:48:05.810 --> 0:48:07.089
<v Speaker 2>of the day, it's just too many points. And it's

0:48:07.130 --> 0:48:09.950
<v Speaker 2>another game Sunday morning. I bet the 10. I haven't

0:48:09.969 --> 0:48:11.609
<v Speaker 2>put a lot of money into it. This is going

0:48:11.630 --> 0:48:12.969
<v Speaker 2>to be one of my bigger bets this week. If

0:48:13.030 --> 0:48:14.689
<v Speaker 2>Mike Evans is out, I'm still getting 10 or 9.5

0:48:14.690 --> 0:48:17.310
<v Speaker 2>on this Raiders team. It just feels like way too

0:48:17.330 --> 0:48:18.750
<v Speaker 2>many points for Kirk to be getting right now.

0:48:19.460 --> 0:48:22.100
<v Speaker 1>We got to talk about Arizona at Seattle. Seattle's an

0:48:22.140 --> 0:48:24.950
<v Speaker 1>eight and a half point favorite. I said at sharp calls,

0:48:25.090 --> 0:48:28.630
<v Speaker 1>I've been thinking a lot about this one. Along with

0:48:28.650 --> 0:48:31.489
<v Speaker 1>the Jets, as of Tuesday, it was actually one of

0:48:31.550 --> 0:48:34.790
<v Speaker 1>my bigger bets of the week. And that was when

0:48:34.870 --> 0:48:37.790
<v Speaker 1>Seattle was at 10 and a half. And then the

0:48:37.850 --> 0:48:40.650
<v Speaker 1>news about Donald comes out and the line drops to

0:48:40.710 --> 0:48:44.290
<v Speaker 1>eight and a half. And I was totally bummed. And

0:48:44.310 --> 0:48:47.009
<v Speaker 1>I felt like, like immediately, I'm like, am I going

0:48:47.030 --> 0:48:49.350
<v Speaker 1>to buy out? Am I going to, at the other side?

0:48:49.410 --> 0:48:51.450
<v Speaker 1>What do I want to do here? And then I

0:48:51.489 --> 0:48:55.350
<v Speaker 1>thought about it. And I, like, I was never betting

0:48:55.390 --> 0:48:59.070
<v Speaker 1>this game because of Sam Darnold. I was betting it

0:48:59.130 --> 0:49:03.219
<v Speaker 1>because there's so much love for the Cardinals of what

0:49:03.280 --> 0:49:05.640
<v Speaker 1>they did and Gardner Minshew, what he did for the

0:49:05.660 --> 0:49:08.799
<v Speaker 1>Cardinals in the final 20 minutes of the game to

0:49:08.840 --> 0:49:11.920
<v Speaker 1>come back and beat the Cowboys. And there's so much,

0:49:13.540 --> 0:49:16.130
<v Speaker 1>so many people have a bias against the Seahawks because

0:49:16.150 --> 0:49:19.140
<v Speaker 1>of how well the Bears played on Monday night. But

0:49:19.160 --> 0:49:22.290
<v Speaker 1>I look at this and think Gardner Minshew coming off

0:49:22.310 --> 0:49:26.319
<v Speaker 1>the bench to play pickup football is different than Gardner

0:49:26.340 --> 0:49:31.340
<v Speaker 1>Minshew when he starts and is playing against a defense

0:49:32.160 --> 0:49:35.560
<v Speaker 1>that you know is going to be significantly better than

0:49:35.580 --> 0:49:40.359
<v Speaker 1>they were in the previous game. And I also think

0:49:40.400 --> 0:49:42.860
<v Speaker 1>about the offensive line, like the Seahawks offensive line was

0:49:42.920 --> 0:49:46.029
<v Speaker 1>not very good on Monday night. Jeffrey Simmons was amazing,

0:49:46.340 --> 0:49:49.210
<v Speaker 1>no doubt about it. But the Seahawks had just traded

0:49:49.270 --> 0:49:54.290
<v Speaker 1>for Quentin Nelson, Quentin Nelson, and they were clearly confused.

0:49:54.330 --> 0:49:56.930
<v Speaker 1>They had moved Gray Zabel from left guard to right guard.

0:49:57.290 --> 0:49:59.650
<v Speaker 1>There were a lot of issues with communication on that line.

0:49:59.790 --> 0:50:02.989
<v Speaker 1>I think with another week of practice against a much

0:50:03.030 --> 0:50:07.790
<v Speaker 1>more inferior opponent, Zach Charbonnet, another week of practice under

0:50:07.830 --> 0:50:10.969
<v Speaker 1>his belt coming back from the ACL. This game to

0:50:11.010 --> 0:50:13.510
<v Speaker 1>me isn't about Drew Locke and Sam Darnold. It's about

0:50:13.550 --> 0:50:16.250
<v Speaker 1>the Seahawks' defense, Gardner Minshew, and the Seahawks' ability to

0:50:17.330 --> 0:50:21.450
<v Speaker 1>move bodies as an offensive line more effectively than they

0:50:21.469 --> 0:50:23.790
<v Speaker 1>could in their first game with Quentin Nelson. So I

0:50:23.830 --> 0:50:25.750
<v Speaker 1>kind of still like Seattle minus eight and a half.

0:50:27.930 --> 0:50:31.350
<v Speaker 2>Yep. Seattle at home. Nothing changed for me. I joke,

0:50:31.390 --> 0:50:34.070
<v Speaker 2>Drew Locke and Sam Darnold, I really don't have that

0:50:34.090 --> 0:50:34.850
<v Speaker 2>big of a difference.

0:50:35.230 --> 0:50:35.590
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:50:35.610 --> 0:50:37.009
<v Speaker 2>My model has it as a point and a half.

0:50:38.160 --> 0:50:39.819
<v Speaker 2>The books, this got up to 12.5 after me and

0:50:39.840 --> 0:50:42.400
<v Speaker 2>Chad talked about it. It's not the pro money. It

0:50:42.420 --> 0:50:47.440
<v Speaker 2>came on Seattle. So now it's moved 4.5 points because

0:50:47.780 --> 0:50:52.260
<v Speaker 2>Sam Darnold, who has been a turnover machine, is now

0:50:52.320 --> 0:50:54.609
<v Speaker 2>not playing for them. I mean, we talk about that

0:50:54.710 --> 0:50:57.810
<v Speaker 2>Chiefs game. That's the best you can get from Sam Darnold.

0:50:57.850 --> 0:51:00.630
<v Speaker 2>He was on. His throws were incredible. Him and GSM

0:51:00.650 --> 0:51:03.210
<v Speaker 2>were in total rhythm. You haven't been getting that a

0:51:03.250 --> 0:51:05.190
<v Speaker 2>lot this year. And if you go back and watch

0:51:05.210 --> 0:51:07.910
<v Speaker 2>the Drew Locke starts, yes, they play a little bit

0:51:07.930 --> 0:51:10.160
<v Speaker 2>more cautious with him. They still let him rip it down,

0:51:10.180 --> 0:51:12.279
<v Speaker 2>feel the JSN. Like that does not change at all

0:51:12.300 --> 0:51:13.920
<v Speaker 2>in the offense. So that's why I'm telling people there's

0:51:13.940 --> 0:51:15.719
<v Speaker 2>not that big of a drop off. So I'm not

0:51:15.739 --> 0:51:17.180
<v Speaker 2>going to waste too much time here. Like to me,

0:51:17.200 --> 0:51:19.480
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be my bigger bets. I'm all over it.

0:51:19.719 --> 0:51:21.299
<v Speaker 2>If I'm on a big favor like this, which is

0:51:21.360 --> 0:51:23.740
<v Speaker 2>very rare, it should be set off all the alarm

0:51:23.760 --> 0:51:28.030
<v Speaker 2>bells where it's just Seattle at home against a Cardinals

0:51:28.070 --> 0:51:31.089
<v Speaker 2>team that like Chad just said, Minshew, the magic tends

0:51:31.130 --> 0:51:35.380
<v Speaker 2>to wear off pretty quick. And yeah, it's, It's a

0:51:35.420 --> 0:51:37.660
<v Speaker 2>nice opportunity where I get why the general public is

0:51:37.680 --> 0:51:40.020
<v Speaker 2>betting this Arizona team. It's a lot of points, but

0:51:40.820 --> 0:51:45.000
<v Speaker 2>the difference between Dallas' defense and Seattle's defense, I can't

0:51:45.040 --> 0:51:46.920
<v Speaker 2>explain to you how big of a difference it is

0:51:47.140 --> 0:51:50.000
<v Speaker 2>on the math chart, where it's just like everything that

0:51:50.160 --> 0:51:56.170
<v Speaker 2>the Cowboys struggle in the secondary, Seattle excels in. Caleb

0:51:56.190 --> 0:52:01.270
<v Speaker 2>Williams made them look foolish. Ben Johnson, you just don't

0:52:01.370 --> 0:52:04.379
<v Speaker 2>see that. And now you're having that. All week, they're

0:52:04.400 --> 0:52:07.200
<v Speaker 2>watching tape all week. Mike McDonald's going to hammer that

0:52:07.219 --> 0:52:09.259
<v Speaker 2>into their heads. Like, you guys just got embarrassed at home.

0:52:10.010 --> 0:52:11.750
<v Speaker 2>This is just a horrible spot for the Cardinals. They're

0:52:11.770 --> 0:52:15.430
<v Speaker 2>literally walking into a Super Bowl champion team that's insanely

0:52:15.489 --> 0:52:17.310
<v Speaker 2>pissed off, that wants to just destroy the next team

0:52:17.330 --> 0:52:21.370
<v Speaker 2>they play. So I love to. It's a 425 start. Like,

0:52:21.690 --> 0:52:25.930
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's just perfect. Outdoors, 425 start in Seattle.

0:52:26.750 --> 0:52:29.430
<v Speaker 2>I love this one so much. And, yeah, it's another

0:52:29.489 --> 0:52:31.379
<v Speaker 2>thing Chad just talked about. We're getting good value here.

0:52:32.180 --> 0:52:34.210
<v Speaker 2>Maybe I'm being a sucker here, but I couldn't believe

0:52:34.230 --> 0:52:36.549
<v Speaker 2>when I moved that much more points. Not only did

0:52:36.570 --> 0:52:38.350
<v Speaker 2>I bet more, I doubled the amount I already had

0:52:38.390 --> 0:52:41.370
<v Speaker 2>on the game. Wow. Yeah, I went way heavier into

0:52:41.390 --> 0:52:42.810
<v Speaker 2>it because it's just like, oh, my God, now it's

0:52:42.850 --> 0:52:45.029
<v Speaker 2>under 10. Where I'm like you, I don't think there's

0:52:45.050 --> 0:52:46.690
<v Speaker 2>that big of a drop off between Sam Darnold and

0:52:46.710 --> 0:52:50.029
<v Speaker 2>Drew Locke. Now, Sam Darnold has been there before. Yes,

0:52:50.090 --> 0:52:51.469
<v Speaker 2>if this was the playoffs, it would be a bigger

0:52:51.510 --> 0:52:55.469
<v Speaker 2>deal than me. But regular season game at home, Drew Locke,

0:52:55.570 --> 0:52:58.450
<v Speaker 2>full week of practice as well. I was never going

0:52:58.469 --> 0:53:00.340
<v Speaker 2>to avoid this one. I love Seattle in this spot

0:53:00.380 --> 0:53:01.500
<v Speaker 2>so much. It's a great number.

0:53:02.070 --> 0:53:04.589
<v Speaker 1>All right. I'm glad we agree. Last one I want

0:53:04.610 --> 0:53:08.230
<v Speaker 1>to talk about, we mentioned briefly, Buffalo, Minnesota. Minnesota is

0:53:08.270 --> 0:53:10.380
<v Speaker 1>a three and a half point dog. Talk that Carson

0:53:10.410 --> 0:53:12.360
<v Speaker 1>Wentz is going to play. I haven't seen that confirmed.

0:53:12.400 --> 0:53:14.540
<v Speaker 1>Have you seen that confirmed at this point?

0:53:15.060 --> 0:53:18.960
<v Speaker 2>Not confirmed. It's just Kyler's hurt. So it's more likely.

0:53:19.060 --> 0:53:21.939
<v Speaker 2>But I would say the funniest thing is that rumor

0:53:21.980 --> 0:53:24.819
<v Speaker 2>came out. This number didn't budge. Yeah, right. It stayed

0:53:24.860 --> 0:53:26.060
<v Speaker 2>at three and a half for the most part.

0:53:26.440 --> 0:53:28.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. I feel like we've got some other

0:53:28.560 --> 0:53:30.259
<v Speaker 1>games we might like a little bit better and we

0:53:30.280 --> 0:53:31.339
<v Speaker 1>can probably avoid this one.

0:53:31.770 --> 0:53:34.330
<v Speaker 2>That's totally fair. Like, like this is another game where

0:53:34.390 --> 0:53:37.660
<v Speaker 2>it's just, it's going to be pros. It's going to

0:53:37.680 --> 0:53:40.100
<v Speaker 2>be the pros all over the Vikings. It's just a,

0:53:40.200 --> 0:53:43.500
<v Speaker 2>it's a big number. Like I talked about last week,

0:53:44.020 --> 0:53:46.160
<v Speaker 2>there's a thousand different ways that played out last week.

0:53:46.200 --> 0:53:48.590
<v Speaker 2>We should have covered that number, let alone the Vikings

0:53:48.610 --> 0:53:52.390
<v Speaker 2>probably should have won that game outright. And I know

0:53:52.410 --> 0:53:55.170
<v Speaker 2>people will turn a little bit now on KOC, the

0:53:55.250 --> 0:53:57.850
<v Speaker 2>general public is, and they're just, really questioning his view

0:53:57.890 --> 0:54:00.830
<v Speaker 2>on the quarterback thing because just, you know, obviously JJ's

0:54:00.850 --> 0:54:03.450
<v Speaker 2>played well, Sam's played well, and Kyler's just not played

0:54:03.469 --> 0:54:06.350
<v Speaker 2>well at all this year. So, um, interesting if Wentz

0:54:06.410 --> 0:54:09.710
<v Speaker 2>does come in, lights up a bad secondary, like the

0:54:09.750 --> 0:54:12.220
<v Speaker 2>Bill's biggest weakness is obviously that secondary, like you can

0:54:12.239 --> 0:54:14.920
<v Speaker 2>pass the ball on him. That's Carson Wentz's strength is

0:54:14.960 --> 0:54:17.719
<v Speaker 2>pushing the ball downfield. So could this be the type

0:54:17.760 --> 0:54:19.880
<v Speaker 2>of game Wentz comes in and finally KFC? Like, I

0:54:19.920 --> 0:54:21.680
<v Speaker 2>know he went back to Kyler when Kyler came back

0:54:21.700 --> 0:54:24.500
<v Speaker 2>from injury. At what point do you make the move

0:54:24.520 --> 0:54:27.610
<v Speaker 2>to Wentz? Like it's, It's a really interesting game where

0:54:27.630 --> 0:54:31.260
<v Speaker 2>a lot of sliding door moments here. So, yeah, it's

0:54:31.280 --> 0:54:33.839
<v Speaker 2>a shock to no one. I like the plus three

0:54:33.860 --> 0:54:36.440
<v Speaker 2>and a half. But, yeah, like you said, there's other

0:54:36.480 --> 0:54:38.960
<v Speaker 2>games I'd rather bet on and look like an idiot betting.

0:54:39.360 --> 0:54:41.399
<v Speaker 2>And this one, if I could avoid it, I'm happy

0:54:41.420 --> 0:54:45.319
<v Speaker 2>to do so. There's so many unknown variables here. But, yeah,

0:54:45.460 --> 0:54:47.680
<v Speaker 2>plus three and a half against this Bills defense, it's

0:54:47.700 --> 0:54:48.280
<v Speaker 2>very tempting.

0:54:48.880 --> 0:54:51.480
<v Speaker 1>Why bet a really good team with one of the

0:54:51.520 --> 0:54:55.649
<v Speaker 1>best defenses ever as home underdogs getting the hook? When

0:54:55.690 --> 0:54:57.790
<v Speaker 1>we could just as easily bet on the New York Jets.

0:54:58.830 --> 0:55:01.810
<v Speaker 1>I mean, come on. Or we could bet on the

0:55:01.850 --> 0:55:05.210
<v Speaker 1>Miami Dolphins. Or we could bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

0:55:05.570 --> 0:55:08.110
<v Speaker 1>Why would we do something so sensible as to bet

0:55:08.210 --> 0:55:11.180
<v Speaker 1>on an incredible defense at home as an underdog at

0:55:11.219 --> 0:55:13.719
<v Speaker 1>three and a half? Simon, that's not what we do.

0:55:15.680 --> 0:55:17.640
<v Speaker 2>It's a crazy week, though, for pros. I told you

0:55:18.920 --> 0:55:21.320
<v Speaker 2>it's such a week of the public versus the pros.

0:55:21.500 --> 0:55:25.339
<v Speaker 2>I mean, between this game, the Colts, Washington– that Eagles game.

0:55:25.410 --> 0:55:28.109
<v Speaker 2>It's just every week there might be two or three

0:55:28.150 --> 0:55:29.810
<v Speaker 2>games that jump out to that way. The numbers look

0:55:29.950 --> 0:55:34.070
<v Speaker 2>off this week. There's feels like there's eight games, nine games,

0:55:34.130 --> 0:55:36.650
<v Speaker 2>potentially the numbers don't, the number does not look right

0:55:36.950 --> 0:55:39.489
<v Speaker 2>and it looks way off. So yeah, I might get

0:55:39.530 --> 0:55:41.310
<v Speaker 2>caught here or I might make a ton of money. That's,

0:55:41.430 --> 0:55:43.030
<v Speaker 2>that's the scary part about this week where I'm been

0:55:43.050 --> 0:55:45.560
<v Speaker 2>pretty heavy into it. Cause I think the general public

0:55:45.580 --> 0:55:48.739
<v Speaker 2>and the books are way off. And I, that one

0:55:48.780 --> 0:55:50.460
<v Speaker 2>jumps out to me as well, where it's like, you know,

0:55:51.510 --> 0:55:53.669
<v Speaker 2>We'll see Chad come Monday night, but this is another

0:55:53.710 --> 0:55:55.890
<v Speaker 2>game where I'm not betting it right now. Because like

0:55:55.950 --> 0:55:58.549
<v Speaker 2>I said, if it is Wentz, the public is going

0:55:58.570 --> 0:56:00.009
<v Speaker 2>to hammer the bills. I might be able to get

0:56:00.050 --> 0:56:02.029
<v Speaker 2>a four, four and a half. Who knows? Maybe there's

0:56:02.050 --> 0:56:03.969
<v Speaker 2>a world that goes up to six. I just don't

0:56:04.030 --> 0:56:06.690
<v Speaker 2>know what the books will do this one if it

0:56:06.750 --> 0:56:09.049
<v Speaker 2>is Kyler's out in this matchup. So another game you

0:56:09.070 --> 0:56:10.910
<v Speaker 2>can be patient on people. All right.

0:56:12.320 --> 0:56:13.420
<v Speaker 1>We got a lot of games we're going to have

0:56:13.440 --> 0:56:15.580
<v Speaker 1>to make some calls on. If I had to guess

0:56:15.640 --> 0:56:22.570
<v Speaker 1>right now, I think we're doing Carolina, Tampa Bay, Seattle.

0:56:25.820 --> 0:56:28.440
<v Speaker 1>I think the Raiders and the Jets will be a

0:56:28.480 --> 0:56:31.000
<v Speaker 1>part of that conversation and so will Miami and Minnesota.

0:56:31.660 --> 0:56:37.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that's probably what it'll come down to. Simon,

0:56:38.780 --> 0:56:43.150
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to tell you what our Discord grouper of

0:56:43.190 --> 0:56:48.130
<v Speaker 1>the week is. Buy my book! Buy my book! Buy

0:56:48.210 --> 0:56:53.020
<v Speaker 1>my book! Listen, I want to remind everybody, if you

0:56:53.480 --> 0:56:57.460
<v Speaker 1>pre-order the number in our Hedge the Number promo, in

0:56:57.500 --> 0:57:01.060
<v Speaker 1>which you will be eligible until November 30th to get

0:57:01.080 --> 0:57:05.700
<v Speaker 1>refunded your purchase price thanks to the custom market I built,

0:57:05.719 --> 0:57:10.380
<v Speaker 1>the Futures Super Bowl market I built on Polymarket. If

0:57:10.420 --> 0:57:12.819
<v Speaker 1>the Chiefs, the Bills, or the Bears win the Super

0:57:12.840 --> 0:57:16.460
<v Speaker 1>Bowl and you pre-order between now and November 30th, you're

0:57:16.480 --> 0:57:23.200
<v Speaker 1>getting your purchase price back. You also get invited into

0:57:23.280 --> 0:57:27.560
<v Speaker 1>this fabulous Discord. And this week, Simon, I don't want

0:57:27.580 --> 0:57:29.880
<v Speaker 1>to jinx it because it was your Simon Says, but

0:57:29.920 --> 0:57:33.690
<v Speaker 1>the winning bet is Carolina plus two and a half.

0:57:33.830 --> 0:57:37.970
<v Speaker 1>I think the group was persuaded by your argument on

0:57:38.010 --> 0:57:46.100
<v Speaker 1>the show. Go to chadmillman.com, pre-order the book, get eligible

0:57:46.140 --> 0:57:48.800
<v Speaker 1>for the refund and get into the Discord. All right.

0:57:49.400 --> 0:57:54.100
<v Speaker 1>What should our Underdog, round robin, B.

0:57:55.760 --> 0:58:00.060
<v Speaker 2>My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog.

0:58:01.160 --> 0:58:02.260
<v Speaker 1>We could get goofy.

0:58:02.720 --> 0:58:06.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, my first one I'd put in is that Colts number,

0:58:06.360 --> 0:58:07.600
<v Speaker 2>plus 200.

0:58:07.600 --> 0:58:08.700
<v Speaker 1>I was going to say Eagles.

0:58:09.440 --> 0:58:14.080
<v Speaker 2>Eagles, I don't hate. They're plus 140. Carolina, plus 130.

0:58:14.080 --> 0:58:14.580
<v Speaker 1>Minnesota?

0:58:15.560 --> 0:58:17.380
<v Speaker 2>I don't hate that. I mean, another big one, obviously,

0:58:17.400 --> 0:58:21.310
<v Speaker 2>is Tampa is plus 250, plus 240. Like, I'm looking

0:58:21.330 --> 0:58:23.530
<v Speaker 2>for something that's going to be breaking up all these teasers. Like,

0:58:23.750 --> 0:58:26.950
<v Speaker 2>we've talked. This is– I think Evan Amos had the tweet.

0:58:27.030 --> 0:58:30.150
<v Speaker 2>It's through eight weeks, every week we've had a seven-point

0:58:30.190 --> 0:58:31.050
<v Speaker 2>dog win outright.

0:58:31.410 --> 0:58:31.570
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:58:31.590 --> 0:58:34.640
<v Speaker 2>First time in NFL history. So, will that trend continue?

0:58:34.660 --> 0:58:37.400
<v Speaker 2>Who knows? But we have some big dogs this week

0:58:37.440 --> 0:58:40.820
<v Speaker 2>where it's like there's some real tempting value. I know

0:58:40.840 --> 0:58:45.400
<v Speaker 2>we only do three. So, yeah, for me, Panthers, Colts,

0:58:45.780 --> 0:58:48.700
<v Speaker 2>and then what do you want to do for the

0:58:48.720 --> 0:58:49.660
<v Speaker 2>last one? You want to do Eagles? Eagles.

0:58:50.130 --> 0:58:50.709
<v Speaker 1>Let's do Eagles.

0:58:51.170 --> 0:58:52.110
<v Speaker 2>Okay. Yeah.

0:58:53.190 --> 0:58:55.510
<v Speaker 1>Okay. Our favorites.

0:58:57.140 --> 0:59:02.520
<v Speaker 2>I'll do. Rams. Yeah. Like the Rams. Like New England.

0:59:03.200 --> 0:59:03.800
<v Speaker 1>Seattle.

0:59:05.650 --> 0:59:09.970
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Seattle is minus 450. It's the big price. Yeah.

0:59:10.390 --> 0:59:12.040
<v Speaker 2>we could do what I like doing, which is like

0:59:12.060 --> 0:59:13.380
<v Speaker 2>you can move the numbers. Now you could take that

0:59:13.400 --> 0:59:14.800
<v Speaker 2>down to two and a half or one and a half,

0:59:14.840 --> 0:59:17.680
<v Speaker 2>whatever you feel safest with. Eat up some of that juice.

0:59:17.740 --> 0:59:19.340
<v Speaker 1>Let's do that. Let's do that.

0:59:20.040 --> 0:59:20.660
<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's do that.

0:59:20.740 --> 0:59:23.140
<v Speaker 1>Rams, New England, Seattle, minus two and a half.

0:59:23.980 --> 0:59:24.140
<v Speaker 2>Okay.

0:59:24.990 --> 0:59:27.170
<v Speaker 1>Um, okay. We had four of our five. We did

0:59:27.230 --> 0:59:30.030
<v Speaker 1>five and favorites in week three and we had four

0:59:30.070 --> 0:59:32.450
<v Speaker 1>of them are on week eight. I'm sorry. Let's go

0:59:32.470 --> 0:59:33.960
<v Speaker 1>through your biggest bets right now.

0:59:34.320 --> 0:59:37.640
<v Speaker 2>Pull up those pants and be a man. I was betting.

0:59:37.660 --> 0:59:40.460
<v Speaker 2>So having the political market, like my biggest bets here

0:59:40.560 --> 0:59:44.400
<v Speaker 2>right now, like I said, Seattle, just because the numbers moved. Yeah.

0:59:44.480 --> 0:59:45.880
<v Speaker 2>I rolled over a lot of that money on poly

0:59:45.900 --> 0:59:49.280
<v Speaker 2>market right into Seattle. Uh, Carolina at the plus three

0:59:49.780 --> 0:59:52.600
<v Speaker 2>took a really big position on, but that's honestly it.

0:59:52.780 --> 0:59:54.590
<v Speaker 2>Like I'm, I've been waiting a lot of these lines

0:59:54.630 --> 0:59:56.590
<v Speaker 2>to move in certain directions for me to take positions on,

0:59:56.650 --> 0:59:58.850
<v Speaker 2>and it's not really broken that way for me in

0:59:58.890 --> 1:00:01.750
<v Speaker 2>a lot of these games. Even the Saints, I basically

1:00:01.790 --> 1:00:03.670
<v Speaker 2>put a penny into that one just because I was

1:00:03.750 --> 1:00:09.840
<v Speaker 2>already trying to avoid that game in general. Carolina, Seattle,

1:00:10.380 --> 1:00:11.860
<v Speaker 2>definitely right now as you sit here, those are my

1:00:11.900 --> 1:00:14.900
<v Speaker 2>two biggest confidence bets. New England, if New England got

1:00:14.960 --> 1:00:16.660
<v Speaker 2>back down to minus three or minus two and a half,

1:00:16.800 --> 1:00:20.010
<v Speaker 2>that could potentially be one of them. A lot of

1:00:20.030 --> 1:00:21.370
<v Speaker 2>these numbers have moved too much for me to take

1:00:21.390 --> 1:00:22.130
<v Speaker 2>a big position on them.

1:00:22.800 --> 1:00:25.240
<v Speaker 1>Sharp versus Square. You were the winner last week. I

1:00:25.280 --> 1:00:27.250
<v Speaker 1>was the loser. I had Baltimore. You had Tampa Bay.

1:00:27.450 --> 1:00:27.990
<v Speaker 1>You go first.

1:00:30.250 --> 1:00:32.150
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to keep it rolling. Every week I take

1:00:32.170 --> 1:00:34.390
<v Speaker 2>a favorite. I'll do my favorite favorite, Seattle.

1:00:35.750 --> 1:00:39.950
<v Speaker 1>It's totally the one I wanted to take. That is

1:00:40.010 --> 1:00:42.190
<v Speaker 1>a bummer. Screw it.

1:00:42.930 --> 1:00:43.510
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, there we go.

1:00:43.790 --> 1:00:44.610
<v Speaker 1>I'm going Miami.

1:00:45.470 --> 1:00:48.190
<v Speaker 2>Wow. Plus seven or six and a half? Seven.

1:00:48.690 --> 1:00:54.640
<v Speaker 1>Seven is publicly and widely available. All right. I think

1:00:54.680 --> 1:00:57.500
<v Speaker 1>we're done with Survivor. Everybody I know at this point

1:00:57.920 --> 1:01:01.380
<v Speaker 1>is out of Survivor. That's our show. We'll be back

1:01:01.440 --> 1:01:04.300
<v Speaker 1>Sunday with our final, final bets. We'll give out our

1:01:04.740 --> 1:01:11.430
<v Speaker 1>five picks for the official $ 25, 000 NFL Pick'Em contest. This

1:01:11.450 --> 1:01:14.250
<v Speaker 1>has been Sharper Square, sponsored by Polymarket, part of the

1:01:14.310 --> 1:01:18.560
<v Speaker 1>Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.

1:01:18.660 --> 1:01:21.780
<v Speaker 1>Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us on Spotify,

1:01:21.820 --> 1:01:25.340
<v Speaker 1>Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe.

1:01:25.450 --> 1:01:27.470
<v Speaker 1>Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is

1:01:27.510 --> 1:01:31.910
<v Speaker 1>a gift. Until next time, love you. But what's your high?

1:01:31.930 --> 1:01:33.830
<v Speaker 2>Do you keep track of how many carries you have

1:01:33.850 --> 1:01:34.250
<v Speaker 2>in a game?

1:01:34.530 --> 1:01:37.209
<v Speaker 3>Well, my high will probably come in about another hour

1:01:37.330 --> 1:01:37.970
<v Speaker 3>after the ballgame.

1:01:39.090 --> 1:01:40.660
<v Speaker 2>We'll have a few beers out in the parking lot,

1:01:40.720 --> 1:01:41.860
<v Speaker 2>I'm hoping. Don't blame you.