1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 2: Single best idea. It was a really wonderful day. I 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 2: didn't realize it was Wednesday until two thirds of the way. 4 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 2: So the show is one of those summer work days 5 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 2: where we just had, like whatever, We had ten twelve, 6 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 2: fourteen wonderful conversations. All of them avail you, and it's 7 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 2: really hard to pick two out here. We went with 8 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:39,639 Speaker 2: David Malpass, controversial, some really heated opinion there with his 9 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 2: Republican politics, serving with President Trump as former head of 10 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: the World Bank. An eclectic discussion with David Malpass, and 11 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: the major idea with David Malpass was the idea of 12 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 2: the new globalization. He harkened back to Germany. 13 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 3: Globalization means getting parts from other countries in an efficient way, 14 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 3: So that made sense in areas. But then was it 15 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 3: sensible for Germany to get its energy from Russia? No, 16 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 3: from the Soviet communist Soviet Union and they cut sweet 17 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 3: ardeals to do it. That was a mistake. Same with China, 18 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 3: that we just went too far and had no knowledge 19 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 3: of what we were doing in terms of the dependence. 20 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 3: So I think as we you know, people use words, 21 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 3: so globalization is this word that we think we know 22 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 3: what it means. But I think we will stay in 23 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 3: a market based global economy where you can outsource, but 24 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 3: a lot of it is going to be made in 25 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 3: the United States. 26 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 2: David MOUNTPESSI dodge the conversation on Chairman Powell in the 27 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 2: future for the chair and also of course what mister 28 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 2: Trump may do about fed independence booth. Thank him for 29 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 2: coming in today. Amanda Linam made us start strowing. She's 30 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,919 Speaker 2: a black rock, amand Alnum. Here on the spread market, 31 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: the difference in yield between full faith and credit government 32 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 2: and the comparative IG investment grade or a high yield piece. 33 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 4: I think, just to go back to your point time 34 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 4: on spreads, the tighter spreads just means a receptivity towards 35 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 4: credit risk, right, more comfort towards credit risk. That's how 36 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 4: we would think about it. Heading into earnings. One of 37 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 4: the key things that we're watching is this feedback loop 38 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 4: between corporate margins, the layoff rate, which is still low, 39 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 4: consumer spending, and overall economic activity. Right now, if you 40 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 4: can see this on the Bloomberg terminal, average EBITDUM margins 41 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 4: for IG are above twenty percent average EBITDUM margins for 42 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 4: high yield are above thirty percent. So what we're watching 43 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 4: is is there pressure on those margins because of higher 44 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 4: input costs for example, and do corporates flex that layoff 45 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 4: tool more aggressively. But going back to the earlier discussion, actually, 46 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 4: I think we've been pleasantly surprised that the multitude of 47 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 4: levers that corporates can flex here, and so what we're 48 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 4: really watching for is is there a middle ground between 49 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 4: how these corporates navigate this, whether that's vendor relationships, inventory purchases. 50 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 4: The list goes on to navigate these uncertainty Was. 51 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 2: There enough jargon there, Amandolin, I'm true pro. She really 52 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 2: stops meetings with a pro look at Blackrock. Let me 53 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 2: explain some of that. It's really important. Actually, EBITDA is 54 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,839 Speaker 2: eb it t DA. I'm not going to go into 55 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 2: what the letters mean. All you got to know is 56 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 2: it's halfway down the income statement. You've got revenue coming in, 57 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 2: you take out this, you take out that above operating 58 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 2: income is this thing called EBITDA, which also pulls in 59 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 2: a little bit of the depreciation and amortization off the 60 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 2: balance sheet. So it's somewhat a huge debate within finance. 61 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 2: Should you believe in Ebada? People look at it as 62 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 2: a measure, and what Amandoline him is saying is they're 63 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 2: watching carefully the resilience of the margins, the percent of 64 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 2: sales of EBITDAC industry to industry, company to company. I 65 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 2: just think, like the YouTube podcast just blew up there. 66 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 2: I think her Apple podcast I should just stop too 67 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 2: much discussion of. But we're out on YouTube podcasts, Apple 68 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 2: and Spotify as well. It's single best idea