WEBVTT - Top 10 NFL Week 8 Player Prop Picks & Predictions + TD Calls (Ep. 567) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.400 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:05.840 your bets. It is me Joey p joe Pizapia, and 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:08.360 it's time to look at the props for Week eight 0:00:08.480 --> 0:00:12.640 in the NFL. No buys. Everybody's playing, how hard they're playing, well, 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:15.120 that's something we could talk about, but certainly some matchups 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:18.439 some returns too. On Thursday Night Football we saw the 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:20.560 returns of Cooper Cup and Pooka and akup. We're gonna 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:22.720 get to a tugue of bayloa back and the return 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:25.079 of Jamis Winston as the starting quarterback in the NFL. 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:27.400 What a time to be alive. To help me break 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:29.960 down all of the props for week eight, the Welsh 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:32.680 and the Undertaker himself, mister Andrew Erickson, don't forget to 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:35.720 download the Betting Pros app, start betting smarter, not harder, 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.239 and use the prop bet cheat sheet because that's the 0:00:38.240 --> 0:00:40.640 way you can find the best lines with the best 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:44.800 projections in the best places to bet them. Again, run 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.000 to the Betting Pros app or go to bettingpros dot 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:49.479 com slash props to check it out for yourself and 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:52.160 start using the tools like the prop bet cheat sheet 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:54.520 to make sure you get all your props in and 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:57.000 make sure that you are maximizing all of the money 0:00:57.000 --> 0:00:59.560 you possibly can make. In Week eight in the NFL, 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:03.680 start here, gentlemen at the top. A tough week last 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:05.240 week for some of the props, but you guys are 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:07.600 still over five hundred for the year. So let's jump 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:10.679 right in with two feet. Let's start with Bijeon Robinson 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:12.520 Welsh because you've got, as the kids like to say, 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:13.440 all the fields. 0:01:13.800 --> 0:01:15.920 I've got all the fields, and you know what, I'm 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:18.200 HARKing it back to last year because what was the 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:19.800 money play every week? 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:20.720 Bijon. 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:23.720 Let's get back to basics with Bijon. Yes, that's gonna 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:26.720 get us going here. It's a nice low ish rushing 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:29.640 yard total prop this week at sixty two and a half. 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:33.120 Projections across the board are over I believe the BP 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.560 and PFF just doing a cross reference, are both over seventy. 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:40.280 The bucks they're averaging ninety two yards against, which isn't 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:44.000 too crazy, but it's on just seventeen carries, which is 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:47.920 an over five yard per carry mark. So you can 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.200 run on this team. Just teams really haven't been because 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:54.560 they've had some efficient offense, maybe playing catchup. Not this week, Bijon. 0:01:54.640 --> 0:01:57.600 He has hit this number two straight weeks and four 0:01:57.760 --> 0:02:01.279 total for the year. And coming back to those yards average, 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:04.560 he's averaging four point seven yards on the ground, but 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:07.320 had fifteen or more carries over the last two weeks. 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:10.320 So you give me what they give up what he's 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:13.000 getting and the higher usage as far as carries go. 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:15.519 I like this a lot plus just if you'd think 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:16.440 take a look at like. 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:18.760 The Bucks in general, if they are going to struggle 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:20.760 more on offense and there are going to be playing 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:22.560 a little bit from behind, and the Falcons are going 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.120 to be able to manage this more, it's even better 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:28.120 for Bijon to break a big run, get over that 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:31.920 fifteen carry marker and smash this. We're back into Bijon 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:35.040 betting season. That's how I'm starting off the first one. 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:37.760 One of the things I like in that game too 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:40.520 is Shad White the over three and a half receptions. 0:02:40.720 --> 0:02:43.040 Everybody knows I don't like betting receptions typically unless I'm 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:45.320 getting what plus money on it. You can get plus 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:47.480 one thirty on this, and with all those injuries in 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:50.079 the wide receiver corps, Rashaud White's gonna work a lot 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:52.800 more in that receiving game. I can't believe that the 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:54.920 number is that low and you're getting plus money on it, 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:56.799 So get in on that game. All the getting is good. 0:02:56.840 --> 0:03:00.240 Bo Nicks this week is a top fifteen Fantasy quarter back. 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.079 Did you know that according to the expert consensus rankings, 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:05.680 at least on Fantasy pros. But what does that mean 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:08.280 on the betting side of things? Andrew Erickson when it comes. 0:03:08.160 --> 0:03:11.160 To bo Nicks, Yes, I was writing down breaking down 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.280 this Broncos Panthers game, which in the Betting Primer this 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:16.880 week I talked about potentially the worst game on the slate. 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:18.600 Do I want to bet the spread? Do I want 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:19.280 to bet the total? 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:22.440 And you always say, Joe when it comes to these 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:24.960 types of games with Bogs, spit the props, man, spit 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:25.880 the props and the. 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:26.800 Prop thats sit out to me? 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.480 The most was bow Knicks under twenty eight and a 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:32.200 half pass attempts because if Sean Payton doesn't have to 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:35.560 let Bonnicks throw, he won't let Bonnicks throw. So that's 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:36.920 why thinks gonna happen in to this matchup. I think 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:38.920 they're gonna run the ball thirty times. You look at 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:42.640 teams against the Carolina Panthers this year, no quarterback. Zero 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:46.600 quarterbacks have hit their passing attempts projection against the Panthers, 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:49.120 none of them. Only twice has a quarterback gone over 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.920 thirty pass attempts, and it was Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins, 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:54.440 teams that feel much better about putting the ball in 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:56.400 their quarterbacks hands. Nick is under twenty eight and a 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:58.720 half pass attempts in three of his last four games 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:00.839 at twenty seven and a half, and in the two 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:03.720 games so far this year where the Broncos have been favored, 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:05.640 he's two and out towards the under. So in games 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:07.920 where the Broncos are supposed to win, they don't give 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:10.120 the ball to bow Nicks that much. So I'm taking 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:11.880 the under. Twin and a half past times. 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:16.080 Friends don't let friends let bo Nicks throw the football 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:18.440 too much. I think that's the right idea, that's the recipe. 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:22.400 Right play defense, run the football, don't overexpose bo Nicks. 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:24.520 It seems to be working for the Denver Broncos, at 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:27.720 least for never go full ball b Neck, No, no, never. 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:30.360 I did that once in college and well it wasn't pretty. 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:32.760 Breece Hall the next guy we're going to talk about 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:35.919 as the Jets Patriots play in the Belichick Bowl, so 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:39.120 that should be fun. Here some big running performances this 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:41.360 year on the Patriots. We've seen that a few times. 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:43.680 I've already bet a bunch of Breese Hall stuff, but Welsh, 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:46.400 when it comes to props for Breeze Hall, what stands 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:47.040 out the most for. 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:50.400 You on video? What are we doing? We are going 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:51.240 with an under. 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:55.240 I had to play this under this week because his 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:57.120 rush attempt prop was. 0:04:57.200 --> 0:04:59.839 Up at nineteen and a half, so the bet over. 0:05:01.279 --> 0:05:02.560 Of course Brice could do it. 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:05.920 They've been using bris more, but Brice has not done 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:09.600 it once this season. He has not had over nineteen 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:11.640 or eighteen, I think is his tippy top of rush 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:14.560 attempts on the year. He's actually, in fact, only had 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:19.080 twenty rush attempts four times in his career. And they've 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:22.920 got Braylan Allen now, so like I know why this 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:25.520 prop went up there. Three of the last five weeks 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:28.440 against the Patriots, you've had running backs go over thirty 0:05:28.560 --> 0:05:30.799 rush attempts, So there are there's a lot of running 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:33.400 going on, but they like to get Brice into that 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:35.960 twenty two to twenty three touch range. Even in this 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:38.839 you know the new coaching staff, but there's so much 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:41.320 done on the receiving side. So obviously if the Jets 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:43.599 were to completely, like start blowing this out, it could 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:46.120 lead to more rush attempts from Breese Hall. But it's 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:48.120 gonna get Braylan Allen more involved, and I think Braylan 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:50.760 Allen's a guy. They're gonna continue. They'll just put you know, 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:53.560 right through the tackles and the guards. They're gonna let 0:05:53.560 --> 0:05:56.040 that open field stuff with Breece Hall happen. He's gonna 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:59.000 get lots of touches. He's gotten up to eighteen. We're 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:03.560 not getting to So I am slamming an under having 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:06.119 done didn't do it last week. I'm playing my best 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:10.040 Andrew Erickson for Halloween here. I am going with under 0:06:10.400 --> 0:06:13.520 rush attempts for Breesehall at nineteen and a half. 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:16.280 Okay, I've bet the over on the seventy four and 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:17.839 a half with Breese Hall, and I paired it with 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:19.719 the touchdowns so I can get it into plus money there. 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:22.560 Because obviously the juice is pretty strong on both of them. 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:24.040 So if you do that, you can get almost two 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:26.120 to one. So I mean, if you think Breesehall is 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:28.479 gonna have a good day, and I do against the Patriots, 0:06:28.600 --> 0:06:30.599 it's hard to think he's not gonna get close to 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:33.760 that eighty five ninety range and probably coming away with 0:06:33.800 --> 0:06:36.200 a Tuddy at some point. So that pairing is a 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:39.040 nice little duo. Bet Andrew Erickson, let's go to you 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:40.960 for your second prop of the day, and let's go 0:06:40.960 --> 0:06:44.320 to the Philadelphia Eagles in a matchup this week, and 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:46.000 what receiver do you have your eye on. 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:47.599 I'm going right back to Danta Smith. 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:49.520 I know I talked about him last week as an 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:51.520 over on his receiving yards and he totally bombed. He 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:54.160 actually got I got more receiving yards than DeVonta Smith 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:57.279 last week because he was in the negatives because Jalen. 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:58.400 Her Tyreek Hill. It was. 0:06:58.480 --> 0:06:59.760 It was absolutely horrible. 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:02.240 So but I'm going right back to it because I 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:05.000 don't think my process was wrong going after Davonta Smith. 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:06.880 It just happened to be a very outlier game from 0:07:06.920 --> 0:07:10.840 the Eagles passing game where they attempted fourteen passes. Jalen 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:12.760 hurts that was the lowest amount of passes he's ever 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:15.640 attempted in a game since twenty twenty one. They're not 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:17.400 gonna be able to just attempt fourteen passes against the 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:20.600 Cincinnati Bengals. There's no way that's happening. So I'm going 0:07:20.680 --> 0:07:24.000 right back to Smith. Historically, when Dallas Gotter has missed time, 0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:26.600 he always goes over fifty five and a half receiving yards. 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:27.480 Before last week. 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:29.400 He went over fifty five and a half receiving yards 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:33.040 in every single game this season. He traditionally always thrives 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:34.960 when guys miss time. I don't expec Dallas card to 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:37.240 play in this matchup. You look at the Bengals defense. 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:40.160 No defense has faced more targets to number two wide 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:43.280 receivers than the Cincinnati Bengals this season. So I'm buying 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:45.560 the dip aggressively on DeVonta Smith. He's gonna have a 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:46.960 big game, all. 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:50.720 Right, aggressively buying the dip on DeVonta Smith. Wells just 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.080 go to you for one of Andrew Erickson's favorite things, 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:56.920 Brian Thomas Junior. Now, look, the Jags were coming off 0:07:57.120 --> 0:08:00.760 an actual win where the offense looked decent. Travis ATM 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:03.840 looking like a game time decision, So not looking good. 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:05.600 For him, which means a lot of tank Bigsby, but 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:08.360 also an opportunity where you know, you could be in 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:11.600 a thing where Jordan Love and you know mister Lawrence 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:12.960 are gonna have to be throwing the ball a lot, 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:15.440 going back and forth each other potentially anyway, So what 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:17.440 does that mean for Brian Thomas Junior this week? 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:19.320 Yeah, I mean, if you really think that this game 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:22.120 is going to be hyper competitive, we can play that narrative. 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:24.800 I also think it could you know, not be hyper competitive, 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:27.480 and that still works very well for the prop that 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:31.800 I want in. Brian Thomas over receptions at four point 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:34.240 five so far. So you know, my point is is like, 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:35.960 if they're going back and forth graate, but even if 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:37.960 the Packers are blowing them out, that means the Jaguars 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:40.560 are going to be playing from behind and they're going 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.760 to be throwing to whom Brian Thomas, this is the 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:45.640 play that they have been going for multiple weeks. 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:46.600 He has hit this prop. 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:49.319 He has gone over four point five receptions in four 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:51.120 of the last five weeks. 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:53.720 We're seeing Kirk getting face out of this offense. 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:57.800 Ingram obviously has been solid in his return and is 0:08:57.840 --> 0:08:59.800 going to get his lion's share. But if you also 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:01.800 take Etan out of there, who is you know, their 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:05.120 primary third down you know, whatever role it ends up being. 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:07.360 We know Bigsby will not play on third downs, so 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:09.559 that receiving role from et and that's more receptions out. 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:12.559 But either way, it's big plays for Brian Thomas. They 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:15.840 are continuously getting those targets in and we've got four 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:17.440 or five weeks where this has hit. This is a 0:09:17.440 --> 0:09:21.520 pretty low ish number against a team that they are 0:09:21.520 --> 0:09:24.199 going to be playing from behind. I feel pretty certain 0:09:24.360 --> 0:09:26.200 that they are not going to be holding big major 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:28.040 leads on the Green Bay Packers, so there's going to 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:29.600 have to be a lot of throwing. It's not going 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:32.719 to be twenty six carries for Tank Bigsby. This is 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:34.559 going to be a Brian Thomas game. Four and a 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:37.480 half receptions is nice and I'm taking it well. 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:39.640 Andrew Erickson loves the sound of that, that's for sure. 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:42.880 I mentioned Rashad White earlier in the show. Andrew Ericsson, 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:45.360 you're with me on this, and maybe you're smarter because 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:49.440 you're just betting the total rushing yards. But again, this 0:09:49.480 --> 0:09:50.679 is the guy that does work a lot in the 0:09:50.679 --> 0:09:53.400 passing game. Bucky Irving also have that toe injury, so 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:55.360 we could see a lot of Vershaw White in this game, 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:57.160 and he looked really sharp to me, by far, the 0:09:57.240 --> 0:10:00.160 best he's looked all year. He's actually breaking tackles. So 0:10:00.440 --> 0:10:02.840 let's get to your take on Rashad White for Week eight. 0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:04.840 Yeah, I'm taking the over on the rushing yards for 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:07.640 Rashad White. Over forty three and a half the last 0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:10.600 three weeks for Shod White has been efficient. It's absolutely crazy. 0:10:10.640 --> 0:10:13.600 Sean Alexander was right. Apparently Rashad White does look pretty good. 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:15.680 So five point four yards per carry over the last 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:18.000 three weeks. He hit a season high in rushing yards 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:20.360 against the same Falcons defense he's playing this week. In 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:23.079 Week five, he had seventy two rushing yards. Every running 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:25.480 back the Falcons have faced this year has gone over 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:29.200 their rushing yard prop, hitting at least seventy rushing yards. 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:32.560 So with no Bucky Irving, no wide receivers left, yes, 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:35.560 let's establish the run. Let's feed Rashad White. As weird 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:37.920 as that sounds, he's been much better and the matchup 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:39.600 is there for the taking for him. So I think 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:41.560 I like the rushing This is a week to bet 0:10:41.640 --> 0:10:44.000 Ra shod White overs the receptions, the rushing. I like 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:45.320 White a lot. I think they're gonna have to lean 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:47.280 on him, just giving all the injuries in the backfield 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:48.280 into the wide receivers. 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:50.560 All right, we still got our touchdown calls to go. 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:52.480 We got a couple more props left for you. So 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:56.920 let's start with JSN Jackson Smith in Jigba. DK Metcalf's 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:58.840 health is in question, but the one thing is not 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:01.040 in question. While Elsh has been know smith slinging the 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:03.280 ball over the place no matter who's out there playing 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:06.679 wide receivers. So what does the injury to dk mean 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:10.600 this week? Potentially for the props When it comes to JSN, it's. 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:12.520 Going to lead to a lot more first read, I 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:15.880 talked about that. Off of that injury, DK Metcalf dominated 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:18.240 in the first read for Seattle of it. Now you're 0:11:18.280 --> 0:11:20.480 going to take that out. JSN was around a twenty 0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:23.720 percent first read, Tyler Lockett is eighteen percent. Now you 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:26.240 take twenty five percent off. It's going to lead to 0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:29.600 both Lockett and Jasn getting more targets. The thing that's 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:31.320 always kind of held back, and you could look at 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:33.800 receptions for JSN because he had that one game where 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:36.920 it was like eight catches for fifty one yards, just 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:39.839 one del Robinson like performances. But when we go and 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.320 look at the receiving yards, it's fifty one and a half. 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:47.640 Projections are wildly over this cross referencing PFF sixty seven 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:50.160 receiving yards for him, so you're talking about around a 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:53.760 sixteen yard swing on him. He has hit this marker 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:58.040 two of the last three weeks, and two wide receivers 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:02.200 on the opposing teams versus have hit this number, so 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:05.560 two each in two games. He's the volume play. And 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:07.760 I'll tell you this was one of those. In the 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:09.600 next prop I'm gonna do as well. These were two 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:11.640 where it was like I almost don't care what the 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:15.000 stats are saying, like give me a semi juicy number 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:17.600 and we're gonna jump on it. Because of volume, Jason 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:19.440 is gonna have to step up. They're gonna get him 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:22.680 the ball more. He's a volume target monster. And yes, 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:25.400 the wand Dell scare is there as far as target 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:29.080 receptions two yards, but it's under fifty five sixty, which 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:31.800 I think was a key marker. So Jaysn with that 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:36.240 heavy pass offense, receiving yards slamming it, trying to learn 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.760 when I can, because I love reception props. But Joe, 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:43.480 you are very very big about your receiving yards over 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:44.360 the reception. 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.559 Always the yards because you give yourself more opportunity, right, 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:48.400 just a percentage right, and you will get that one 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:50.800 big play. You can get most of it or even 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:52.480 all of it, depending on that number. You know, you 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:54.360 look at some of these numbers vers Center Tillman this 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:55.959 week and some other guys too, where they're very low, 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.240 some of those Tampa wide receivers because the market just 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:00.560 doesn't know what it's going to look like. Advantage of 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:02.480 those You take advantage of those overs and hopefully you 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:03.760 hit on one or two of them. 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:08.120 Plus one thirty five for Tillman receptions. But I tempted. 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:09.920 It's when you get the plus money. Like I said 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:11.520 when Rashad White, I think the three and a half 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:13.120 is ridiculous. I don't think there's any way he doesn't 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:15.280 have five or six catches in that game. Just from 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:17.720 base of the need and based on what we've seen previously, 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:20.040 when those two teams match up, that there's going to 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:22.840 be a back and forth most likely of these two teams. 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:25.440 And I think when you get plus money and a 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.080 good number, that's when everything comes together for those receptions, 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.040 and you tend to get it more with running backs 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:32.400 in those spots than you do with wide receivers most 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:32.880 of the time. 0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:35.160 I know that we've talked a lot about receptions and 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.360 receiving yards cause I think it's a really fascinating conversation 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:39.800 because even before the Thursday night game, Mike Mayer was 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:41.360 trying to figure out, right, what's the pick of the day. 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:43.360 And he's like, all right, do we go with Jefferson 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.080 receptions or Jefferson receiving yards? And it didn't end up 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:49.000 mattering because he went over everything. But I was on 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.520 the yard side. I said, look, Jefferson's an explosive playmaker, 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:54.760 and I think that in the yard I think had 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:57.200 a bigger payout. So that's why I said, let's go 0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:59.200 with the yards. And again it didn't end up mattering. 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:00.840 And then I think it's interesting because of the two 0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:04.559 picks that Welsh brought up here with Brian Thomas and JSN, 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:07.440 I guess for me, Brian Thomas is an explosive playmaker, 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.200 so why do the receptions of the receiving yards? And 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:12.640 then with Jasn, it's this guy ply does is catch 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:13.560 dub off passes? 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:16.240 Really in a short soverse of both of my beds. 0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:19.400 Well, well, no, I guess for me, it's are we 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.960 trying to lean towards what's more likely to hit or 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:24.920 what's more likely to give us the best payout? Like what, Joe, 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:26.600 it seems like you lean towards give me the most, 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:29.440 give me the most money for what Ericson. 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:30.760 Was saying, it's a payout versus Yeah. 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:32.880 Yeah, And he's saying you're leaning more to maybe the 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:35.720 bigger payout than maybe at line of success. 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:37.960 Uh, even if you're reducing it a little bit. 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:39.640 I think it's a very individual thing too, has to 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:41.640 do with the certain players, like you bring up Brian Thomas, right, 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:44.400 explosive player. I tend to just go and ignore the 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:47.880 receptions because my confidence of the Jaguars consistency of offense 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:51.080 is not great. Right, So it's circumstance, it's player, it's 0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:53.360 the prop for the week, it's it's whatever it's juiceed 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:55.360 at or plus money at. Like, I think there's so 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:57.680 many variables in it, but I think you have to 0:14:57.720 --> 0:14:59.680 take them all into account, and more often than not, 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:02.840 the receiving yards. I always find to be the more 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.880 profitable and like the guy's like Justin Jefferson, you know, 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.720 the yards you always take because he's such a great player. 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.320 You take that he can have six catches for one 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.960 hundred and twenty yards. You know that's Justin Jefferson. I 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:16.120 guess he's a big plays and then the game is done. 0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:18.920 It's over typically and you can stash it away now. 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:22.240 It wasn't done yesterday. But again, you know, certain things 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:24.800 do happen in the game of football when we are 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:28.240 talking about putting together some unders. Though one of my 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:30.240 one of my biggest fades was putting together the TV 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.680 show for Sunday for Sports Grid and Andrew. The one 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:34.800 thing that I wrote for the Busts of Week eight, 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:37.640 I said, Raiders running backs against the Kansaby Chiefs. Game 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.760 scripts not going their way. Chiefs really good against the 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:44.160 run typically this year, defense playing really well, and it 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:46.960 looks like you are in that same mindset as I 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:47.600 am this week. 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.320 Yep, going on under an Alexander Madison, even though he 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.680 has basically been the engine to whatsever left of my 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:55.120 flex team in Fantasy football after I picked him up 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.440 because Madison's been He's been good filling in as the 0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.080 Army one, but I don't think that's going to continue 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.600 this week against the Kansasity Chiefs. Chief Stephen's allowing the 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:04.080 fourth fewest rushing arts per game to running backs. Only 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.240 run running back they have faced the season has surpassed 0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:09.760 their rushing yards totals. So yeah, it's at forty rushing 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:12.320 yards forty and hailf rushing yards for Alexander Madison. But 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:14.840 I just have no faith that this Raiders' offense is 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:16.560 going to be able to run the ball. I think 0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:18.160 the cover, but I don't think they run the ball 0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:20.640 with Alexander Madison. So even though he went over last 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:22.920 week ninety two yards and twenty three carries, maybe we 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:24.840 see more of a split with Samir White getting back 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:26.600 and healthy. So I'm gonna take the under in an 0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:28.000 offense that I'm not really excited about. 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:30.280 All Right, One more from each of the guys. Here 0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:31.840 a lot of people trying to make money. As I 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.360 said earlier on the Jalen mcmillans or like Shephard, where 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:36.360 did the bucks go from here? But Welsh, you have 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:38.520 a different take. You're not going wide receiver at all, 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:40.760 you're not going for Shaun White on this one, so 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:41.400 where are you going? 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:43.680 Yeah, I mean I think they're fun, like if you 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:45.520 want to play on those, but I'm going to go 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:47.520 with Cad Aughton and I am going to go to 0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:51.480 receptions on this ten targets last week through that injury, 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:55.560 over five catches in three of his last five weeks. 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:58.480 The marker this week is four point five over receptions 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:01.920