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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? There were running again, so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 2: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 4: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 4: the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The one.

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Speaker 4: It's left too, the wide eyed, drilled bibus.

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Speaker 1: How old earth pick that happens every one. Welcome back

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Speaker 1: to Wondergul, the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: My name is Michael Eba. Joining me in just a

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Speaker 1: moment are my friends and co hosts, colleagues Anthony Dbundo

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Speaker 1: and beach A Cunningham, and together the three of us

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Speaker 1: are going to break down all ten Premier League matches

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Speaker 1: coming up in over the weekend. We will also do

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Speaker 1: a quick look ahead to Boxing Day since we won't

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Speaker 1: be able to record again between now and then with

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Speaker 1: the holiday falling falling on a Monday. We'll also talk

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Speaker 1: a little Syria A. They're the only other European league

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Speaker 1: in Action, and then we'll give out our customary under

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Speaker 1: three leg underdog parlay, give out our favorite bets in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League coming up, and then we'll get out

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Speaker 1: of here and leave you guys to Santa Claus and

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Speaker 1: the egg nog and all that. But before we do,

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Speaker 1: before we get this party started, a reminder that Wonder

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Speaker 1: Goal is presented by Bet three six five and Bet

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Speaker 1: three six five doesn't do ordinary. It believes every sport

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Speaker 1: should be epic. Every tournament, every game, every point, every

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Speaker 1: play from the momentstead are legendary to the ones that

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Speaker 1: fly under the radar. See for yourself when you sign

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Speaker 1: up today with Code Action and you'll get three hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty five dollars and bonus bet when you just

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Speaker 1: bet one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's

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Speaker 1: never ordinary. At Bet three six five, you must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and you must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio or Virginia. And if you or someone

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Speaker 1: you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please

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Speaker 1: call one eight hundred Gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: Ohio and Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.

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Speaker 1: Terms in conditions apply, all right, no dancing around it.

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Speaker 1: The headliner for this weekend's Premier League action is a

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Speaker 1: one versus two top of the table clash between Arsenal

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Speaker 1: on thirty nine points from seventeen games in Liverpool on

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Speaker 1: thirty eight points, tied with aston Villa of all teams

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Speaker 1: there but ahead on goal difference. Ahead of the billains

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Speaker 1: one loss on the season for Liverpool, five jaws eleven

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Speaker 1: wins losses for Arsenal to go along with three draws

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Speaker 1: and twelve wins. All right, and hear the odds from

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Speaker 1: our friends at bet three six five. As you'd imagine,

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Speaker 1: pretty tight match is being played at anfield plus one

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Speaker 1: thirty seven for the Reds. BJ's gunners traveling is a

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Speaker 1: plus one eighty underdog and the draw is plus two sixty.

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Speaker 1: This this match feels like it could, in a weird way,

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Speaker 1: look like what we just saw with Man United and

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Speaker 1: Liverpool once once. I kind of just dig it in

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Speaker 1: and the caveat is that the Arsenal defense is much better.

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Speaker 1: But I think when you look at how these teams

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Speaker 1: are going to want to play one team BJ, your

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Speaker 1: team is going to want to keep things as composed

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Speaker 1: and pragmatic as possible, and then the other team's going

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Speaker 1: to try to get that. Get Arsenal off script. So

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Speaker 1: looking at these odds, I actually like Arsenal here, a

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Speaker 1: very rare bet for me on Arsenal, pretty common going

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Speaker 1: against the pol.

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Speaker 2: But flabbergasted, yeah, actually shocked by both of you in

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Speaker 2: this match.

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Speaker 1: Why why well?

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Speaker 2: I mean, what was it, like three or four weeks

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Speaker 2: ago we all bet Newcastle at home as a pick

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Speaker 2: them against Arsenal they were underds.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, go ahead, it was.

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Speaker 2: Like a toss up. I mean I got I think

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Speaker 2: I got like a plus one oh five And now

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Speaker 2: like you all can't wait to bet Arsenal at anfield

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Speaker 2: as a pick them.

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Speaker 4: Oh it's a completely different matchup.

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Speaker 2: Right, but like from a relative team strength perspective, I

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Speaker 2: mean it's.

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Speaker 4: A completely different matchup.

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Speaker 2: Didn't we just let's the case now, you guys go first,

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Speaker 2: you guys, we just saw Liverpool like, I mean, create

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Speaker 2: create two plus, expected goals to shoot thirty one times and.

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Speaker 1: Now they're playing now and now they're playing Yeah, that was.

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Speaker 2: A pretty terrible United performance.

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Speaker 1: We're being honest, that's the only way they could have

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Speaker 1: played right, and they got away. They got out of it.

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Speaker 1: That's right.

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Speaker 2: It wasn't good process. They got smoked.

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Speaker 1: What was the good process was going there and getting

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Speaker 1: a point. That's in the only way.

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Speaker 2: That's a result. That's not good.

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Speaker 1: Yes, it is because the process if they had their

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Speaker 1: full strength team, sure, But the only other way you

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Speaker 1: could play that game is that's the only way they

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Speaker 1: could have played. It wasn't ever, they weren't ever going

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Speaker 1: to it.

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Speaker 2: Don't give credit for getting a lucky result, and like

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Speaker 2: I don't, I would give them.

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Speaker 1: I give it. I absolutely give teams credit for something

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Speaker 1: like that when you're going like when you're going there

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Speaker 1: with the roster that they had, what else, Like what

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Speaker 1: else did you want to.

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Speaker 2: Be YEA, give them credit for like you know, in

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Speaker 2: a vacuum pass and their desire to get the point whatever.

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Speaker 2: But like, I don't really think that's necessarily that matters

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Speaker 2: that much here. Like if Arsenal comes in here and

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Speaker 2: sits deep and just like absorbs pressure for ninety minutes,

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Speaker 2: I'll be shocked. I don't really think that's their plan.

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Speaker 4: No, they're going to control this match.

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Speaker 2: They're going to try to control the match. And and

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Speaker 2: and look, they tried to do it at Anfield in

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Speaker 2: the spring and they.

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Speaker 4: Got played off the park, Anthony, And.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know they have Saliba and now they have

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Speaker 2: Declan Rice and now that the greatest team that's ever

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Speaker 2: foot on the soccer field. Like BJ make your case,

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Speaker 2: I want to hear this case, and then I'm going

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Speaker 2: to go into this and kind of not necessarily disagree

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Speaker 2: because I haven't bet Liverpool here, but I will disagree

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Speaker 2: with betting Arsenal.

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Speaker 4: So we have seen Liverpool play I would say one

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Speaker 4: team at the level of Arsenal this season and that's

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Speaker 4: Manchester City. And what happened in that match, Anthony, They

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Speaker 4: got out played pretty much for the entire match and

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Speaker 4: got bailed out by Trent Alexander Arnold strike from outside

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Speaker 4: the box. But the problem was in that match and

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Speaker 4: City scored pretty early and Liverpool essentially had to sit

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Speaker 4: in some type of defensive block because their press just

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Speaker 4: wasn't effective. So they have two choices in this match.

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Speaker 4: They can try and come out and press. Arsenal, who's

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Speaker 4: one of the best build up teams in the world,

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Speaker 4: and I thought did a lot of really good things

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Speaker 4: against Brighton, changed some things around that gives them a

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Speaker 4: lot more space for Martin, Melly and Socker to operate.

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Speaker 4: Or Liverpool can just sit in any defensive block, which

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Speaker 4: they haven't been good in for pretty much what the

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Speaker 4: entire clop Era, especially this season as well. I mean

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Speaker 4: against City they had a pass the for defensive action

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Speaker 4: of seventeen point four. The press was non existent against

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Speaker 4: them and they allowed closer to expected goals. So if

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Speaker 4: they're just going to hand the ball to Arsenal and

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Speaker 4: ask them to break them down, I get it. You're

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Speaker 4: gonna tell me how terrible Arsenal's offense has been, but

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Speaker 4: Liverpool hasn't been good in rest defense. Like, if we're

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Speaker 4: comparing defense to defense, Liverpool has been a half expected

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Speaker 4: goal worse per ninety than Arsenal this season. Like that's

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Speaker 4: a very very significant thing that is not talked about enough.

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Speaker 4: And for if we flip this and we say, okay, well,

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Speaker 4: what is Liverpool's path to their best success against Arsenal.

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Speaker 4: It's to play very, very direct in this match. But

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Speaker 4: they are pretty when they want to be transitional, they

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Speaker 4: are I would say probably the best transition team in

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Speaker 4: the world. But they're also facing the best transition defense

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Speaker 4: in the world here. I saw sat today that really

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Speaker 4: opened was perfect for this. You know, Arsenal against Brighton,

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Speaker 4: they're out of possessions up with they're pressing, and transition

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Speaker 4: defense was basically perfect. I would say, like they were

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Speaker 4: incredible against Brighton this season. Tackles interceptions and block passes

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Speaker 4: in the opponent's final third. So essentially, what are you

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Speaker 4: doing when you're pressing high? Arsenal is one hundred and

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Speaker 4: thirty eight. The next closest is Spurs with one hundred

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Speaker 4: and twelve. Like, that's how effective Arsenal has been when

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Speaker 4: they have decided to press high. And you know, they

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Speaker 4: obviously destroyed Brighton's build up. We talked about that on

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Speaker 4: the Sunday Show. You know, eleven high turnovers, three shots

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Speaker 4: off those high turner which is incredibly impressive. But I

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Speaker 4: don't think Liverpool's face to transition defense that's good yet.

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Speaker 4: And I don't know if they really have a good

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Speaker 4: plan or if they have advantages really you know, yeah,

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Speaker 4: they're obviously a better offensive team, but they're not a

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Speaker 4: better buility team than Arsenal. They're not better defensively, They're

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Speaker 4: definitely not better in rest defense. So I don't really

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Speaker 4: see a scenario in this matchup where Liverpool is the

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Speaker 4: better team, and even though they're at home, they haven't

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Speaker 4: played anybody good at home this season, like United was

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Speaker 4: probably the best team they've played outside of Big Brentford.

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Speaker 4: I guess Aston Villa early on in the season, but

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Speaker 4: they've won every single match. But they again, they haven't

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Speaker 4: played the top, top tier competition. So I have Arsenal

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Speaker 4: prediction as a favorite. I know that's kind of probably

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Speaker 4: by it. People don't think that's biased, whatever, I don't

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Speaker 4: really care, but I think in this matchup they are

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Speaker 4: a better team and I don't think there's really scenario

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Speaker 4: that Liverpool has out of possession that's going to be

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Speaker 4: successful against Arsenal.

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Speaker 2: So Liverpool played eight matches in anfield this year. They

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Speaker 2: have a plus twenty one goal difference a plus excuse

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Speaker 2: mean plus sixteen goal difference twenty one goals scored plus

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Speaker 2: thirteen expected goal difference. That's about a goal and a

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Speaker 2: half per game. They have been a league average side

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Speaker 2: away from home. Now, I want to acknowledge that everything

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Speaker 2: we know about this Liverpool team and most of their

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Speaker 2: there are two of their four biggest games of the

200
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Speaker 2: season at Newcastle at Spurs they played down a man

201
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Speaker 2: for the majority of those matches and two men at

202
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Speaker 2: various points. So any season long data that we look

203
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Speaker 2: at with Liverpool is going to have just an inherent skew.

204
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Speaker 2: And if you just go you know, Macrostats has this

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Speaker 2: just non penalty just eleven on eleven. Take out all

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Speaker 2: penalties and all minutes where somebody was down a man.

207
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Speaker 2: Liverpool's played the most minutes of non eleven on eleven

208
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Speaker 2: in the league this year. Liverpool has a plus point

209
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Speaker 2: nine to four expected goal difference non penalty per ninety

210
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Speaker 2: Arsenal was it plus point eighty six? Yes, I think

211
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Speaker 2: if you put a gun in my head and said

212
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Speaker 2: who is the better team, I would tell you it's

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Speaker 2: Arsenal by like the smallest of margins, just because I

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Speaker 2: do trust their defense more, that's without a doubt. But

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Speaker 2: Liverpool makes up for it on the margins by having

216
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Speaker 2: the best goalkeeper in the Premier League, whereas Riah and

217
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Speaker 2: Ramsdale have both been below average shot stoppers. I think

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Speaker 2: that matters. And look like this this thing about Liverpool's defense,

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Speaker 2: and I know there's been a lot of like hand ringing.

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Speaker 2: They're conceding one point one non penalty XG per ninety

221
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Speaker 2: in eleven eleven on eleven situations. And if you look

222
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Speaker 2: at their defense just kind of as a whole, and

223
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Speaker 2: you know some things I talked about with levercous In

224
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Speaker 2: this week, kind of like looking at shot data, they've

225
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Speaker 2: allowed the fourth fewest shots per ninety they're allowing the

226
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Speaker 2: sixth longest average shot distance and their x G per

227
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Speaker 2: shot is sixth lowest. So and it's only teams that

228
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Speaker 2: are better are Newcastle, Bournemouth, Everton and Arsenal. So like

229
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Speaker 2: they've been okay, I don't think they've been like a

230
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Speaker 2: bad defense. Now they will not have it. Doesn't look

231
00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,559
Speaker 2: Gravinberk is endowed here and so is McAllister. So those

232
00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:39,520
Speaker 2: are the two things to kind of watch here. I

233
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Speaker 2: would be worried about Liverpool with the defense that's not

234
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Speaker 2: full strength, but just given how dominant Liverpool has been

235
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Speaker 2: at home and given how good they've been an eleven

236
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Speaker 2: on eleven, I cannot fathom betting Arsenal as a road

237
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Speaker 2: pick them here. I just can't do it.

238
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Speaker 4: Now.

239
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Speaker 2: If Liverpool, I'm not.

240
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Speaker 4: What they're underdogs, but the market's down.

241
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Speaker 2: I mean the Arsenal is like plus one oh seven

242
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Speaker 2: right now, most markets on the on the on the

243
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Speaker 2: drawn out bet. That's not good enough for me. I

244
00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:16,200
Speaker 2: I make Liverpool right around minus one fifteen. So for me,

245
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Speaker 2: if it gets to one ten, I'm gonna fire Liverpool

246
00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,280
Speaker 2: drawn a bet minus one ten or better?

247
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Speaker 1: Is it bet?

248
00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:21,000
Speaker 4: For me?

249
00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,160
Speaker 2: It has not gotten there yet. There has been some

250
00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:26,480
Speaker 2: Arsenal money today Arsenal Liverpool played a rotated team, so

251
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Speaker 2: they do get a little bit of extra rest here.

252
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Speaker 2: But yeah, I look, I've said this all year. I

253
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Speaker 2: said Liverpool had the higher ceiling than Arsenal. I still

254
00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:40,760
Speaker 2: think that's true. I will back my boys, my clop

255
00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:43,360
Speaker 2: at home if it's minus one ten or better. I

256
00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:47,000
Speaker 2: just don't understand how the Arsenal has readed that much

257
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Speaker 2: better that they're a pick'm here essentially.

258
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Speaker 1: So that's thing I think, matchup more, matchup well, it

259
00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:57,320
Speaker 1: still it's it's a it's like what what when has

260
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Speaker 1: Liverpool struggled this year too? Like the Palace Man, they

261
00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:04,600
Speaker 1: were not good that even yeah, right, match like these

262
00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:08,200
Speaker 1: are slower like just slower moving matches and it's just

263
00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:12,760
Speaker 1: that's what frustrates them to an extent to an extent.

264
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Speaker 1: That's I think that's part of why come in like you.

265
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Speaker 2: Could again, and I keep going back to this match

266
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Speaker 2: because it really burned a hole in my brain that

267
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Speaker 2: match and it stuck with me because I don't think

268
00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,920
Speaker 2: these teams are that different. I think Liverpool clearly had

269
00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,200
Speaker 2: you know, figured some things out by the spring and

270
00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:29,920
Speaker 2: made their run at the top four. The ultimately came

271
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Speaker 2: up short. Arsenal weren't playing at the same level. Their

272
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:37,559
Speaker 2: defense had certainly dropped off, but Arsenal were still controlling

273
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Speaker 2: games at a decent level. There were just more mistakes

274
00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,839
Speaker 2: and you saw how little control they were able to

275
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Speaker 2: keep in that match, and I think that, you know,

276
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Speaker 2: it's easy to say like Arsenal can do this, but

277
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 2: then when they get on the pitch at anfield, it

278
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Speaker 2: is a different environment in a different setting. So uh yeah,

279
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Speaker 2: going against Liverpool as a pick them at home is

280
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Speaker 2: crazy to me. I wouldn't even do if Man City

281
00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:04,840
Speaker 2: was playing. So that's just my take. Again. I know

282
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,800
Speaker 2: Arsenal's got a very lofty market rating and I'm gonna

283
00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:09,320
Speaker 2: betting Arsenal. I think in the next week or so

284
00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:13,000
Speaker 2: we'll talk about that going forward. But yeah, I can't

285
00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 2: get there, so Reds are nothing for me. But you guys,

286
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:17,840
Speaker 2: good luck to your gunners. That's gonna be fun. I'm

287
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,840
Speaker 2: so excited for this match as a as a potential neutral.

288
00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:22,800
Speaker 4: You're not a neutral.

289
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:24,520
Speaker 2: I'm not a neutral. Yeah, I'm not neutral.

290
00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:29,920
Speaker 4: Far You're not a neutral because you really really I know,

291
00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:31,360
Speaker 4: we know you love your Reds, but I know you

292
00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,040
Speaker 4: really really enjoy watching Arsenal, which is fine because I

293
00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,400
Speaker 4: enjoy watching Tottenham lose too. That's okay.

294
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Speaker 2: We might be doing that this weekend. We maybe we

295
00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:39,760
Speaker 2: can both watch our teams together.

296
00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,400
Speaker 4: Yeael Michael's team was the only one that went actually wins.

297
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:47,080
Speaker 1: When did that be something?

298
00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:50,640
Speaker 2: Arsenal wins this weekend, We're gonna We're gonna get Arsenal.

299
00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:52,000
Speaker 2: No prices, it like even money.

300
00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:58,200
Speaker 1: It's the same as it was last year basically with

301
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:00,200
Speaker 1: the World Cup. It's a little different, but like get

302
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,360
Speaker 1: we had that conversation at this time basically last year.

303
00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:07,360
Speaker 4: Now we listen to our previous show, someone gave out

304
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:08,680
Speaker 4: to Arsenal twin the league.

305
00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:13,680
Speaker 2: You know, Rope was only one point back. Man, I

306
00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:15,920
Speaker 2: still cannot believe they didn't win that match. That was

307
00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:20,000
Speaker 2: so nauseating to watch they did what they There's things

308
00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:21,840
Speaker 2: we can get into next week about like why that

309
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:25,000
Speaker 2: didn't work or you know, could the Liverpool attack be

310
00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,360
Speaker 2: overrated based off of things we've seen in certain matches?

311
00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,440
Speaker 2: But again, so many all of their bad games come

312
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,960
Speaker 2: away from home. When they're at home, they just dominate everybody.

313
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:36,920
Speaker 2: It's actually amazing. The only match they didn't dominate at

314
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:38,560
Speaker 2: home this year and win the expected goals by at

315
00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,960
Speaker 2: least a goal was the Brentford match when they played

316
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:45,880
Speaker 2: the entire backup midfield uh and struggled and still won

317
00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:46,800
Speaker 2: three nail by the way.

318
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Speaker 1: So okay, uh, we'll send Anthony on his way to

319
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 1: the Anfield rap where he's got a spot today. Maybe

320
00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:00,600
Speaker 1: me and BEJ we'll break down this next week without him.

321
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:06,280
Speaker 1: Spurs minus one thirty four at home hosting best team

322
00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,880
Speaker 1: in the Premier League, perhaps best team of all time.

323
00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 1: Everton have three to one and the drought here is

324
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:15,040
Speaker 1: plus three twenty. These odds, obviously, are coming from our

325
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:18,920
Speaker 1: friends at bet three six five. This This is easy.

326
00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,680
Speaker 1: This one is an easy one to break down. How

327
00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:26,240
Speaker 1: can you bet against Everton right now, especially at this price? Yeah?

328
00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:29,120
Speaker 1: That since was the system, ever first top of the

329
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,560
Speaker 1: table along with them in Villain like this is this

330
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:34,040
Speaker 1: is something here, that's a match I.

331
00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,320
Speaker 4: Would like to see again. I fill a pumped Everton

332
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 4: earlier on this season. I would love to see that again.

333
00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 2: Well, we got to rematch in the Cup. We did

334
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 2: and Everton got Everyton got their revenge.

335
00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, they sure did, and we'll get back on that revenge.

336
00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 1: I think it could be pretty quick here, like all

337
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 1: three of us are going to be on Everton A Anthony.

338
00:16:57,920 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 2: Yeah. So who do you think has been Tomenham's most

339
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:00,720
Speaker 2: important player this season?

340
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,400
Speaker 4: I would say Madison or vand Evett one of the two.

341
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:09,560
Speaker 2: Mason I would say, well, I'm surprised he didn't say Son, Sony.

342
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 2: I had it planned for you guys to say son

343
00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 2: and then I say, oh, contrere. I will make a

344
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:20,320
Speaker 2: claim that it's Vicario. So I first of all, yes,

345
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,480
Speaker 2: they sold Harry Kane. So like, obviously son is the

346
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,879
Speaker 2: automatic answer that like everybody should probably say, just because

347
00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,920
Speaker 2: you know he does all the attack now. But there's

348
00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,120
Speaker 2: something really interesting that Scott Willis tweeted out great follow

349
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:34,920
Speaker 2: especially if you're an Arsenal fan. He does some good

350
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:37,439
Speaker 2: stuff with the gunners, breaking them down, fan of them.

351
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 2: He tweeted a chart and it was basically just like

352
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 2: comparing Tottenham this season to last season, only counting the

353
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:47,200
Speaker 2: fixtures they've already played, so their matches all you know,

354
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 2: seventeen they played so far, the seventeen they played in

355
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,119
Speaker 2: those exact corresponding fixtures last year. They have nine more

356
00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 2: points at this point now and they did last year.

357
00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,520
Speaker 2: Their expected goals are right around where they were last year.

358
00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,560
Speaker 2: Now you sell Harry Kane and your spected goals go

359
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,080
Speaker 2: up by a tick. That's impressive. That's a credit to

360
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,880
Speaker 2: A and how they're playing, YadA YadA. They've scored three

361
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:10,080
Speaker 2: more goals, so you know, fine, net net about the same.

362
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,240
Speaker 2: We'd all agree Tottenhams attack is clearly better this year.

363
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:16,320
Speaker 2: They're playing differently whatever. The interesting thing is how much

364
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 2: the defense has changed.

365
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:18,200
Speaker 4: Last season.

366
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,720
Speaker 2: In these seventeen corresponding matches, they conceded twenty one expected goals.

367
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 2: This year they have conceded twenty eight expected goals, so

368
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,840
Speaker 2: seven more expected goals. You'd expect them to have conceded

369
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 2: seven more goals this year they did last year, Well,

370
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,399
Speaker 2: Lauris was so bad and they ran so bad defensively

371
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 2: and Vicario is so good and they've ran better that

372
00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,679
Speaker 2: They've actually conceded eight fewer goals this year than they

373
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,959
Speaker 2: have than they did last year, despite conceding six extra

374
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 2: expected goals. So you know, Vicario, by the post shot

375
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 2: extremetrics at fb REF has actually been the best goalie

376
00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,920
Speaker 2: in the league this year. Five goals he saved himself

377
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,639
Speaker 2: over expected and then you know the rest is his variants.

378
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,840
Speaker 2: But and you know other teams missing shots, cough Man United,

379
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:06,200
Speaker 2: but like they are not still a great team. And

380
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,320
Speaker 2: I know they had a good showing at Forrest. They

381
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 2: pretty much dominated that match until the red card, like

382
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,399
Speaker 2: they were in control at all points. I think I

383
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:16,639
Speaker 2: had more to say with Forrest and Spurs. But now

384
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 2: they get an Everton team which is allowing the lowest

385
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 2: XG per shot, bottom five number of shots, completely dominated Fulham.

386
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 2: I know they went out of the Cup because like

387
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:29,480
Speaker 2: soccer own goals and whatever, dominated Fulham at home and

388
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:31,680
Speaker 2: an Everton team that I think the market is still

389
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 2: catching up to. Spurs took Everton took money early in

390
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 2: the week. Now Spurs are taking money later in the

391
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,159
Speaker 2: week and they're not going to have the suma or

392
00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 2: or Doggy, and the deputies for those players are just

393
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 2: not as good, like Oliver Skip and Pierre mL Hoybierg

394
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:50,880
Speaker 2: are not great fits in this and system like Ben

395
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 2: Davis is going to go back to left back or

396
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 2: are they gonna like I don't know what the solution

397
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,679
Speaker 2: is there. So there's some real questions about the Spurs

398
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 2: team and uh yeah, Everton plus a half of money

399
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 2: line for me.

400
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 1: Do you remember Vicario in the opener he gets Brentford two?

401
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:08,360
Speaker 1: He was an absolute adventure.

402
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it's playing crazy past is making absurd saves. No,

403
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 2: the best for Caryo was the Chelsea game. Yeah, like

404
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 2: they were playing a nine man and he was literally

405
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 2: like sweeping forty yards and then like diving on ball

406
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 2: and love them. Uh he's awesome. I mean he's incredible.

407
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:27,800
Speaker 2: What a I mean credit to Spurs, you know, finding

408
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 2: a guy out of Empaly that like nobody was like

409
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 2: really hyping is the next big thing? Well, you know,

410
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 2: like everybody wanted David David Raya, who's been like fine.

411
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 2: Brentford missed him for sure, but Arsenal haven't necessarily benefited.

412
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like Everton. I just thought that was interesting,

413
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 2: just like how much time has changed and their defensive

414
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 2: numbers are bad.

415
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I think Spurs can be had here. Everdence

416
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 1: five to one and one in their last seventh. It's

417
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,479
Speaker 1: November the first. Like I said, them and Villa are

418
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 1: at the top, but Everdon the better goal differential there.

419
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: It's just been truly impressive. And when do you think

420
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 1: about that one what that one loss was was you

421
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 1: know that the game after the the deduction was handed

422
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 1: out three minutes later, garnaccho bicycle kick and things just

423
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 1: got really weird and they were yeah they so it

424
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 1: could look even prettier than that.

425
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,479
Speaker 2: They played tomorrow. Everton's like plus one fifteen mm.

426
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's crazy. I'm still trying to my head

427
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:44,920
Speaker 1: around it. Yeah. Not since David mois Man have I

428
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,440
Speaker 1: been this just this, have I felt this warm about

429
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 1: an Everden team, Scottish Scottish managers at Goodison Park something

430
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 1: about uh bjuh Spurs and Toffees.

431
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's make sure to three. I think the biggest

432
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 4: problem that Toddam was going to have in this match

433
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 4: is just defending and transition against Everton, because you know,

434
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,400
Speaker 4: me and Anthony talked about this on our Monday show

435
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 4: about just how good Everton has been out of possession

436
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 4: because of their ability to play two different styles. They

437
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 4: if they feel like they can come out and disrupt

438
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 4: build up play and press team's high, they can do

439
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 4: it and they can do it effectively. Or if they

440
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 4: want to sit in some type of low defensive block,

441
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:28,119
Speaker 4: they've been really good at doing that too. You'll like this, Michael.

442
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,439
Speaker 4: Last season under Ditch they had to be aggressive try

443
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,439
Speaker 4: to get out of the relegation fight. Under Diytsch, they

444
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 4: allowed one point seven non penalty XTU for ninety minutes.

445
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 4: We kept talking about how bad the defense was, about

446
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 4: how the offense was improving. This season, haven't had to

447
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 4: play as aggressive, been able to sit in that low

448
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 4: defensive block, only on one point one non penalty xtually

449
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,120
Speaker 4: per ninety minutes and only allowed six big scoring chants.

450
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 4: That's tied for fewest, Merrily with Arsenal. That's how good

451
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 4: their defense has been. And really in this match, with

452
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 4: Tottenham building onto two three five, that leaves a lot

453
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 4: of space out wall when they do lose the ball,

454
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 4: and that's exactly where Everton creates all their chances. They

455
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 4: just get the ball wide and they've sent in the

456
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 4: most crosses of anybody in the Premier League. So great

457
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 4: match up here for Everton Tottenham. You know, decent showing

458
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 4: it's for us. But again, can you really say totam

459
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 4: is a good team of breaking down low blocks. They're

460
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 4: not bad, but they're just kind of average it doing it.

461
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 4: So facing a really good low block like Everton and

462
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 4: it's a great match up here for the topees. Yeah.

463
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 1: I think the one push it back you can make

464
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 1: on us here is that that that that Everdon did

465
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 1: go for it in the EFL Cup and in a

466
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 1: in the midweek, so you can't say that.

467
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 4: It was on Tuesday. I mean, yeah, it's und to rest.

468
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 1: Okay at Villa red hot Villa minus five hundred. This

469
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 1: is great. It tells you a couple of things. One

470
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 1: Villa very good too. Sheffield United twelve to one, very

471
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 1: bad draw is roundbreaking stuff on the So yeah, it's

472
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 1: just it's funny that anywhere else it's great to see

473
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 1: you know that every year we get a team that

474
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 1: starts to beat out numbers that you just didn't think

475
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,639
Speaker 1: were coming in the beginning of the season. And I

476
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: would say Villa as a minus five hundred favorite at

477
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 1: home in December. It's probably one of those numbers. But

478
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 1: full value, who I am ories Villa. I mean, there's

479
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 1: very little to get into here, I believe, but I'll

480
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: kick it over to you, Anthony.

481
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 2: Well, the thing you could squint and say is that

482
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 2: Villa only really have one player who's designed to defend

483
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,640
Speaker 2: and win the ball, and it's Kamara and he's suspended.

484
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: He got a red card in the melee with Mape

485
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 2: at the end of the match hilarious and at the

486
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 2: Brentford match. But you know, regardless of whatever you think

487
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 2: of that he's out and that doesn't and pow Torrez

488
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 2: is out as well, and he's their best ball playing

489
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 2: center back. So you know, you start to squint a

490
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 2: little and you can like maybe make the case that

491
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 2: Villa's overvalued here, but like you really want to bet

492
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 2: Sheffield no, Like it's like last week, it's like, well,

493
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:20,919
Speaker 2: if the number got high enough you think about it, right,

494
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 2: you'd have to. And then Chelsea got to two and

495
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 2: Chelsea like y really bad for most of the match.

496
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 2: And still want to know, Phil is so much better

497
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 2: than Chelsea, though I'm probably too certain that they're so

498
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 2: much better than Chelsea, but certainly when it comes to

499
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 2: creating chances against lower defensive blocks, I trust Villa more.

500
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 2: Villa is much more likely to give one back than

501
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 2: Chelsea is right like Sheffield, but like the time to

502
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 2: potentially play against Villa is coming in a week. I mean, granted,

503
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,919
Speaker 2: last Sunday was the time and Ben Mee's dumb red

504
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 2: card cost us a win because that was going to

505
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 2: be a routine one for the Bees classic Brentford's bot.

506
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 2: Brentford was the better team for the first hour and

507
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 2: a half or hour and fifteen and then red card

508
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 2: collapse just like that. But this one, I mean kind

509
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 2: of smart by Kamara, right to get there. Was it

510
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 2: a straight red or was it a second yellow?

511
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 4: I believe it was straight straight red?

512
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 2: Okay, so not smart because now he's going to miss

513
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 2: multiple matches. He should have gotten like two yellows taken

514
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 2: in his suspension, like and then you know you missed

515
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 2: the Sheffield match. Nobody cares because like not having him

516
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,120
Speaker 2: will matter for this defense, which is already not great.

517
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 2: But no, thank you on Sheffield. I'll pass. Maybe maybe

518
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:42,679
Speaker 2: you're not even gonna do a money line shot. Leave off.

519
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: I don't know, it could like yeah, who knows? Should Yeah,

520
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 1: I know we'll we'll get there, like when we get

521
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 1: close to the game. It's just I can't. It's hard

522
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: to make an argument for them at this point. Yeah, yeah,

523
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 1: exactly right, like one, No, if they.

524
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 4: Get, they're they're like fifteen to one right now.

525
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, they got. They already had their new manager old

526
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: new manager bounce game against Brentford. Ah, you'll probably see me, chef.

527
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 2: They have Lowton next week, don't they.

528
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 4: Yeah? Yeah, matches, Yeah, the best matches the Premier League season.

529
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 2: The fact they haven't played yet is so fun. If

530
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 2: I chefild is favorite on any field against any other

531
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 2: Premier League team. I look at the look aheadline. They

532
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 2: go to City then, too, like when are we getting a.

533
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 1: I feel like Sheffield exclusively plays teams in the top eight.

534
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 2: It really Sheffield goes to City. They're catching three, right,

535
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:44,719
Speaker 2: they should be. They really shouldn't, all right, especially if

536
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,239
Speaker 2: Holland and de Brouno back, which I mean by then

537
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 2: they should be.

538
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,439
Speaker 1: Let's just move on because this should be more interesting.

539
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 2: I wouldn't even I wouldn't even take two and a half.

540
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: West Ham and United it's a pick them plus one sixty,

541
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: it's a pick go on the three way line, I

542
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,439
Speaker 1: should say west Ham's plus one sixty, United plus one

543
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: sixty two on the road at the draw here is

544
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:10,239
Speaker 1: plus two sixty. Would it be fair to say these

545
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 1: are the two teams that we've scrutinized the most Fulham

546
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,239
Speaker 1: probably in there on the podium as well, and now

547
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: they face off, I'm gonna have a hard time not

548
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: betting Manchester United here. Oh, man west Ham is not good,

549
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: They're terrible.

550
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 2: BJ Where do you have this line projected?

551
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 4: I think I'm I think I'm pretty sure I have

552
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 4: United just ever so slightly favored here on the me

553
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 4: I believe these are I cannot thee over here though.

554
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 1: It's seven verse eight in the table, which is astonishing.

555
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 4: It is that's I looked today and I was like

556
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 4: I was doing something about I can't remember what I was,

557
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 4: but like teams facing teams in the top nine, and

558
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 4: I was shocked to see the west Ham just sitting there.

559
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if results break their way, west Ham

560
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: could finish the like the festive fixtures, like a European spot.

561
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: It's back in the conference, Like, yeah, this is this

562
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: is something else I do think. I do think this

563
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 1: is a fine time to bet United, though, like they're

564
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: even decimated, I would assume that west Ham has enough

565
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: mistakes in them to get punished here. Nobody wants to

566
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: join them.

567
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do like kind of like the over in

568
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 4: this match. You know, it has potential to be a

569
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 4: you know, basketball back and forth type match with two

570
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 4: teams that be transitional. It's gonna be very big game

571
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 4: state dependent though essentially, once for the first goal goes

572
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 4: in and either team has to play more aggressive, this

573
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 4: thing could get a little bit out of hands. I

574
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 4: do project three point three goals for this match. I mean,

575
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 4: I don't even know if you're noted anymore, but like

576
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 4: this is like one of the matches they have a

577
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 4: good chance I believe at causing some problems. You know,

578
00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 4: west Ham has been very bad defensively, but you know,

579
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 4: both and Kudus have been pretty threatening on the counter

580
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:05,959
Speaker 4: for what you know, for how bad their defense has been.

581
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 4: So I think this would be a good time to

582
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 4: back and over. You know, you can get three at

583
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 4: any plus money. I think that's good enough.

584
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, at some point we got to buy

585
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 2: low on these defenses, right. I mean, they can't possibly

586
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 2: both be bottom five in the league, but they're gonna

587
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: need to get some change in players or personnel or tactics.

588
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 2: And for me with west Ham, I agree, like they

589
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 2: did still look open against Wolves. It just came down

590
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 2: to like Wolves never finding the right pass. It wasn't

591
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 2: like they west Ham completely shut them down in that match.

592
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 2: And I think that west Ham's attack with healthy Bowen,

593
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 2: Poketa and Cudas is like still very viable and in

594
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 2: fact better than what they had last year, just because

595
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 2: Antonio's injury has kind of been additioned by subtraction in

596
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 2: a way. So and Bowen's got ten goals as like

597
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 2: essentral striker essentially for them, Like that's pretty good return.

598
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 5: Yeah.

599
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 2: I you know, west Ham does no pressing, and if

600
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 2: you look at the games where United has generally played

601
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 2: pretty well, it's against teams that will just let you

602
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 2: have the ball and not disrupt your passing. And you know,

603
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 2: I know that some of these matchups are like the

604
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 2: worst teams in the league, but like Palace is down there,

605
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 2: they played pretty well against them. Fulham, they had a

606
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: lot of chances to get into the final third I

607
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 2: know they ended up creating very little in that match,

608
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: but like they had a lot of opportunities to create

609
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 2: on the break and then you know Forest and then

610
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 2: obviously Lootontown and Sheffield are down there. So you know,

611
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 2: in theory, it's not a terrible matchup for United because

612
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 2: their biggest problem right now is they don't have midfielders

613
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: they can pass consistently under pressure, and they're just not

614
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: going to have that problem here. It's gonna be free reign,

615
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 2: which means Scotty's going to get forward. Maybe Rasmond Hoyland

616
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 2: will ever will score a Premier League goal at some

617
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 2: point in his career. Yeah, it's hard to fathom it

618
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 2: under even though I do think that like ultimately there's

619
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 2: going to become a point where we have to buy

620
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 2: these defenses at the floor. Cool.

621
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, it should be a fun one. Both these seas are.

622
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 1: They're in a weird way, but beer images of each

623
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: other coming from very different starting points of late four

624
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: one and two in their last ten I assuming in

625
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: the last seven wind draw lost. West Ham has been

626
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: a really high event team in that spat at. United

627
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 1: has been a low event team in terms of actual goals,

628
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 1: which I don't think is what you expect. But you

629
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: Anthony said you were really excited for Liverpool Arsenal, I'm

630
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 1: really excited for this one. On to Fulham and Burnley

631
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 1: next the Cottagers. Odds on at home, Burnley traveling as

632
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: a four to one underdog and a draw would pay

633
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: plus two seventy five.

634
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 4: I hate this match. It's I really do, all right,

635
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,239
Speaker 4: go on, I don't want to bet Burnley at all.

636
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 4: I think they're terrible. I think they're probably getting relegated.

637
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 4: Their style of probably it just doesn't work. They definitely are.

638
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, they have not been dangerously close to that mix.

639
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 4: Yeah they have. Burnley has not beaten a established Premier

640
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 4: League team. They're only two wins have comeing against Lowton

641
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 4: Sheffield United. Fulham's terrible, not terrible, not terrible. They're just

642
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:28,719
Speaker 4: better than what the market thinks they are. Even if

643
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 4: Burnley gets plus one. I cannot bet on this team.

644
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 4: They just Fulham is actually decent and coming out and

645
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 4: pressing when they need to. Burnley can't build up, They're

646
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 4: not good in transition defense like it sets up pretty

647
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 4: well for Fulham. But there's no way you can lay

648
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 4: minus one fifty right now. With Fulham, Like, it's just

649
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 4: to pass for me. I know you are gonna make

650
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 4: the case for Burnley.

651
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 2: At some point. Not having a striker has to matter,

652
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 2: you think, now they go they don't?

653
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: He suspended though, Raoul?

654
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 2: He's out now is it you got a red card for?

655
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 4: Like?

656
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he's out and he missed the League Cup

657
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 2: match and guess what they took one shot from inside

658
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: the penalty area in ninety minutes against Everton.

659
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 1: So like, and I actually think that game also, Like

660
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: could you could push back a little on that game too? Here? Like,

661
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 1: I feel like it matters that it's a shortened week

662
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: for them.

663
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 2: Under UNDERBA chair hmm if there were ever to be one,

664
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: if you ever went on, you can stomach and under

665
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 2: in this league right now? I know full of ha

666
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 2: been a truck at home? They scored one hundred and

667
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,360
Speaker 2: ten goals their last five home. Yeah, how what is

668
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: what is the.

669
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 4: It's extremely straight? Is it straight? Two and a half?

670
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 2: Believe? So hold on? I have two and a half

671
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 2: plus money two and a half plus money.

672
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 4: Okay, I have two point six goals projected for this match.

673
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 4: But yeah, if there was ever an under, it'd be

674
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 4: this one. The problem is there actually really isn't a

675
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 4: problem because a Fulham scores first, then they're just gonna

676
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 4: handle ball with Burnley and Darren breaking down, which Burley's

677
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 4: not be able to do. Yeah, I'm passing.

678
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, look.

679
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 2: From Everton in the League Cup close two and a

680
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 2: quarter without right ull and like the under was the

681
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 2: right side all the way it. I did one one,

682
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 2: but like there was like one point seven xg like

683
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 2: Everton scored late, there was an own goal two and

684
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 2: a half. I know in this modern Premier League, like

685
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 2: everything goes over, but like we're still We're still running

686
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 2: like sixty percent overs. But why is this not two

687
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:40,879
Speaker 2: in a quarter?

688
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 4: This offense is terrible.

689
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,720
Speaker 1: They're afraid of point, afraid of they're afraid of William.

690
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 2: It's I think I'm I think I've just like talked

691
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 2: myself into an over that I wasn't playing to original

692
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:52,879
Speaker 2: or an under that I wasn't originally playing.

693
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: That that's always it's always a good thing. But I

694
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 1: do think, what Anthony, what you're saying, Like, I I

695
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: don't think the margins here are all that wide when

696
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 1: you compared to the.

697
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 2: It's Fulham closed minus one seventy against Sheffield, pretty close

698
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 2: to fully healthy. Yeah, Burnley is a tick or two

699
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 2: ticks better than that, So yeah or nothing here. I'm

700
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 2: not definitely not laying it with full of them, but hey.

701
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 1: And they've got two. Uh, they've only lost two of

702
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 1: their last four at Burnley, so.

703
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 4: It's true they got they got brighton.

704
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 1: Here comes the run.

705
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 4: I also heard during the Burnley Everton match that their

706
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 4: keeper James Trafford has touched the ball more than any

707
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 4: other keeper in the like this season, which is maybe

708
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:45,399
Speaker 4: not a statu you want.

709
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 1: That's like when when hockey players are when when uh,

710
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 1: announcers big up hockey players for blocking shots, you're like, well,

711
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 1: that means that he's on the ice for a lot

712
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 1: of shots.

713
00:36:56,000 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 2: Again, all right, we're only nineteenth and expected threat twentieth

714
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:06,280
Speaker 2: and crosses sixteenth in box entry conversion rate and Fulham's

715
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 2: attack is twentieth in box century conversion rate sixteenth and

716
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 2: expected threat. Yeah, Fulm's not good, Like they're not good,

717
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,439
Speaker 2: so and Fulham is fifteenth and non penalty x gene

718
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 2: after after this like insane run rate.

719
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 1: Just went yep, So all right, good, we're all on

720
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: Burnley there, I'll see you guys there under two.

721
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:24,839
Speaker 2: I'm on under two and a half.

722
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: I'll see you. Well.

723
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 4: I think there's honestly, I think there's a way better

724
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 4: spot to fade Fulham and and we'll talk about it

725
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 4: when we do our look ahead for Boxing Day.

726
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 1: All Righttown Loutontown and Newcastle next. Not much to say here.

727
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 1: Luton plus three seventy five at home, Newcastle minus one

728
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 1: sixty three on the road.

729
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 4: Uh.

730
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: And if you want to bet a jaw in this match, man, gosh, god,

731
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 1: you might be the only person on the planet doing so.

732
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 1: It's plus three fifty.

733
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 4: Uh.

734
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 1: Oh, man, is this BG? I thought when I was

735
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,479
Speaker 1: thinking about this match, and I was like, it's gonna

736
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 1: be a tough one to talk about. The only thing

737
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,320
Speaker 1: I could come up with in my head was just

738
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 1: betting Newcastle to do the heavy lifting towards an over.

739
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean you could. You could definitely talk me

740
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 4: into I'm probably not up betting a Newcastle team total

741
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 4: probably over two and a half, but over two and

742
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 4: a half. There's still a minus one twenty five out there,

743
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 4: which I think is too low. You know, first off,

744
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,760
Speaker 4: you know what happened to Tom Locklear was obviously terrible

745
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 4: and hope that he ends up being okay. But the

746
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 4: bigger point is that obviously it's okay, but he was

747
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 4: like the shoe string that was like holding this Lootontown

748
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 4: defense up, and now he's not there. And this is

749
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 4: a defense that you know I mentioned before the Borneo match.

750
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 4: They obviously didn't finish it, but in their nine matches

751
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:55,479
Speaker 4: previously they did play a lot of the big teams,

752
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,919
Speaker 4: which Newcastle is one of them. Is a big team.

753
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 4: Lutontown had allowed twenty five point three expected goals and

754
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:06,439
Speaker 4: nineteen big scoring chances. Playing teams inside the top nine,

755
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 4: they've allowed seventeen zero point eight expected goals in nine matches.

756
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 4: So now they run into the problem that a lot

757
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 4: of these teams in the bottom half the table run

758
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 4: in two against Newcastle. Which is why Newcastle is so

759
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 4: good in these type of scenarios. Is looton Town's going

760
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 4: to send the ball along from goalkicks. They are going

761
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 4: to evade Newcastle's press. They're not going to try to

762
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 4: build out against it, which ends up playing great in

763
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 4: Newcastle's hands because then you can play a transition back

764
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 4: and forth type match is one of the best transition

765
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:40,320
Speaker 4: teams in the really, so it's a very very terrible

766
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 4: match up here for Looton Town, who has him a

767
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 4: good and rest defense, like they press high occasionallybe that's

768
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 4: not really gonna matter here, Like even if they hand

769
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 4: the ball to Newcastle and say, hey, Newcastle, break us down,

770
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 4: like Newcastle is probably gonna be able to do it

771
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 4: because Looton Town's that bad and they're in their rest defense.

772
00:39:54,719 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 4: But ye, Newcastle's been getting healthier defensively, but they have

773
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,240
Speaker 4: been shaky away from home, like they've been really really

774
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 4: good at Saint James Park, like insanely good. They've basically

775
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 4: got no points away from home, and their defense is

776
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 4: a big reason why, because they're allowing one point eighty

777
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 4: five and expected goals per ninety minutes away from Saint

778
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 4: James Park. So I think this has a potential for

779
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,879
Speaker 4: again another basketball type mash. I had to double check

780
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 4: my projections, but I protected just four point one Colts

781
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 4: for this match because of how bad Newton's defense has been.

782
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: Not that crazy and it's really not that crazy, so

783
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 1: it's just funny to hear it is.

784
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 4: But also, this is the number one offense in the

785
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 4: Premier League by non penalty expected goals.

786
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 2: That's what I was gonna say. Yeah, you add up

787
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 2: just eleven on eleven minutes x G and XGA. So

788
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,239
Speaker 2: who's played the highest event matches in the league this year?

789
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 2: It's not Liverpool, it's Newcastle. A lot of it is

790
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,319
Speaker 2: they've had a lot of really bad defensive outliers. They've

791
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: had a lot of really bad attacking outliers. But like

792
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 2: their games get crazy sometimes. I mean like they were

793
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 2: closing uh, you know, three against Sheffield, So why is

794
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:06,879
Speaker 2: this all the way down to two and a half?

795
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 2: Like what's reasonably changed when they went to Sheffield, which

796
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 2: is when they're going to Lowton right now?

797
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 4: I also might just lay with Newcastle as well. Let's

798
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 4: see if you know, the price is rising. But you know,

799
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 4: if you compare some of the teams that have gone

800
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 4: to Lowtontown, where like Arsenal and Liverpool are laying almost

801
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 4: like two goals against them, and now you're getting.

802
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 2: Newcastle and Tottenham is minus forty.

803
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, it's like now we're getting like minus one

804
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 4: fifty minus one sixty Newcastle. Like that's it's pretty low.

805
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 4: So I might just lay with Newcastle. Maybe you can

806
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 4: play some Malts. But yeah, it's this just has the

807
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 4: makings of like a Newcastle absolute.

808
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 2: Blowout rolling over my Newcastle full of Halt winnings into Newcastle.

809
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,280
Speaker 4: H how about another Newcastle Halts.

810
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 2: Disagreement with the market On the strength of Newcastle, I'm

811
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 2: less inclined to go against those numbers when they're on

812
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 2: the road. But like, I don't know who their next

813
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 2: home matches, but I'm guessing we're gonna get a really

814
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 2: good price just based on what I've seen.

815
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 4: It is Sheffield or Nottingham Forrest who will get to

816
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 4: in a second.

817
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 2: Under Oh no, maybe not. They're probably like to fifty

818
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 2: in that game, right they.

819
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 4: Are minus They were minus two twenty five, but they've

820
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 4: risen up to about minus to forty range minus to

821
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 4: forty five range today.

822
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:31,719
Speaker 2: So you know Forrest got the new manager downgrade for

823
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 2: hiring new No, we'll.

824
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 1: Get there, we'll get there, we'll get there next Actually, Forest,

825
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:42,240
Speaker 1: I'm betting them, I'll say it. They're plus one seventy

826
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 1: five in new No's debut here hosting Bourne, Myth plus

827
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 1: one fifty five that draws plus two forty. We had

828
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: a feeling that the board Myth numbers would start to

829
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 1: get a little too expensive. Anthony thinks it's coming. But

830
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 1: I do want to just tip our cap to Steve

831
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 1: Cooper on a job well done, gets forced back up,

832
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: keeps him up. What do I do? He kept it up,

833
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 1: kept it he got him up and kept him up.

834
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:09,359
Speaker 4: That's not a couple of we We bet them as

835
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,919
Speaker 4: underdogs like every single week and don't don't win. He's

836
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 4: trying to sin.

837
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 2: Like the only thing Steve Cooper ever did for me

838
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 2: was was cash and when he beat Crystal Palace one nil. Yeah,

839
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 2: way back exactly.

840
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: I don't understand why you why you what you're what

841
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 1: you're questioning?

842
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 4: And then he clinched the two for us.

843
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is an absolute rafters to name the number

844
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 1: to the Rafters moment on wonder goal. Uh yeah, I

845
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:41,320
Speaker 1: I I kind of tend to agree with you here, Antony,

846
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 1: I didn't. I guess I can listen to your argument.

847
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 1: I would much rather bet Forrest here than Bournemouth is

848
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: a favorite on the road exactly.

849
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I just think that, like I have clearly

850
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 2: upgraded Bournemouth, and I've been high on Bournemouth all year.

851
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 2: I've also been generally higher than the market on this

852
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 2: Forest team. I wonder how much of their recent struggles

853
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:01,720
Speaker 2: that they were just sick and done with Steve Cooper

854
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 2: and how much do we now get just like an

855
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 2: energy bounce, a motivation bounce, And I think that is

856
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 2: very real until the players realize that, like you know,

857
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 2: is like the mirrored version of what Steve Cooper was doing,

858
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 2: and that it's not really going to make this team

859
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 2: any better because they don't really have a striker. They

860
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 2: lost Taiwo for it looks like the year now, and

861
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:26,399
Speaker 2: they're just not really that good without him. I mean,

862
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 2: Ty's out till March, so maybe they get him back.

863
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 2: They also should get Sung Gare back here, so it's

864
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:35,919
Speaker 2: one to watch. But yeah, I mean this Forest team

865
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:39,800
Speaker 2: like extremely passive, out of possession, attack and transition with

866
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 2: like three players and hope you score. And that's not

867
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: a terrible strategy if the attackers are really good. But Forrest,

868
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 2: you know, they're not getting any striker production and thus,

869
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:55,879
Speaker 2: you know, even despite that, you know, like they played

870
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 2: Wolves pretty even, they played Everton pretty even, they played

871
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 2: Brighton pretty even, they played west Ham pretty even. So

872
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 2: like they've been running bad and it's been shot stopping

873
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 2: it's been a various other things, but they've run pretty

874
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 2: bad to get here. And Bournemouth, you know, we're kind

875
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 2: of just like at the top of the market on

876
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 2: this team, laying a full gow to loot in and

877
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 2: now pick them on the road against Forest. Like at

878
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 2: the beginning of the season Bournemouth had the same relegation

879
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 2: odds as Forrest. I've upgraded Bournemouth and I haven't changed

880
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,399
Speaker 2: Forest much, but like seems like we're at the top.

881
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, gonna be the trees for me. Not a

882
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 2: huge play. Nothing, I'm like dying to run to the

883
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 2: to the sports book to bet, but I do like

884
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:34,839
Speaker 2: the trees at home.

885
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:36,839
Speaker 4: All right.

886
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:40,760
Speaker 1: We'll close out the pre Boxing day segment with Wolves

887
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:44,320
Speaker 1: and Chelsea Wolverhampton plus two sixty at the Molo and

888
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,359
Speaker 1: you Chelsea traveling as an odds on road favorite minus

889
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 1: one oh six and at draw is plus two seventy

890
00:45:49,920 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 1: five for this one. Yeah, Like, I don't know, we

891
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 1: got to do it right.

892
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 2: They think match day squad potentially potentially start based on

893
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:07,800
Speaker 2: what the commentary has been from Miss j O'Neil.

894
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 4: Wolves team total Wolves team.

895
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 2: Total Wolves are back just I like Wolves plus a

896
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 2: half here. I you know, Chelsea had an okay showing

897
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 2: and then the week against Newcastle they played down a

898
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 2: man or they played down a goal most of the

899
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 2: match and created one expected goal against the Newcastle team

900
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 2: that we just got done talking about how bad they've

901
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 2: been defensively away from home, and I think when you

902
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 2: play a team with good attacking players on the break

903
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 2: and like a pretty healthy midfield. Now they went through

904
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 2: a period with suspensions and injuries that they weren't at

905
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 2: their best at home catching a half, I think Chelsea

906
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 2: remains overvalued. That's I'll back our Wolves again as I

907
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 2: like to do a lot, and Netto coming back off

908
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 2: the bench is just so important I think, you know, psychologically,

909
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 2: but like also just as a player. He is by

910
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 2: far their best ballcarrier and that's going to matter a lot.

911
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 2: I think with Chelsea is that their defense has really

912
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 2: taken a slide. And I know they had am and

913
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 2: showing against Sheffield, but like that doesn't really count. Their

914
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 2: defense has fallen off, and that was the thing that

915
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 2: I was most surprised about. That their attack's been mostly fine,

916
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:12,800
Speaker 2: creating a chance on the break fine, their expectacles allowed

917
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 2: are much higher than you'd think, where do you think

918
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:16,719
Speaker 2: Chelsea ranks XG allowed this year?

919
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 3: I thought them were fifth, uh ninth, ninth, Yeah, like

920
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 3: mid table, kind of wild and you wouldn't expect that

921
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:30,760
Speaker 3: given the personnel and given how good they are defensively

922
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:32,959
Speaker 3: off the ball, pressing, and yet they're ninth.

923
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 2: So I think that that's alarming, and I think that

924
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: makes them vulnerable. So mean, I mean the Wolves.

925
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 4: Bad transition defense.

926
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:46,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, really bad. Even if you take out and you

927
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 2: just go non penalty and you go just eleven on

928
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:52,719
Speaker 2: eleven all game states, they're still eighth. So it's really

929
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 2: not like there's been some skew from penalties because they've

930
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:57,879
Speaker 2: conceded a few of those. But like, nope, just not great.

931
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk Boxing day real quick. We'll just do

932
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 1: an overview, touch on some some angles.

933
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 4: We like.

934
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:14,320
Speaker 1: Five matches on the twenty sixth, three on the twenty seventh,

935
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:16,319
Speaker 1: and then again on the twenty eighth.

936
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:20,320
Speaker 2: One more so, we're gonna we're gonna do a Wednesday

937
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 2: episode coming out of the holiday, so we're gonna talk

938
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:26,280
Speaker 2: go a little more in depth on the Thursday matches.

939
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 2: Then Brighton Tottenham Arsenal west Ham so all right.

940
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 1: So we'll stick to twenty sixth and the twenty seventh.

941
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 5: Ah Man.

942
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 1: First up, we got to talk about Villa and United.

943
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 1: I just talked about how I think I want to bet.

944
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 1: I want to bet United against west Ham. I do

945
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 1: not want to bet it. But this spot is a

946
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 1: favorite at home plus one forty Villa plus two hundred.

947
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:54,799
Speaker 1: This is a Boxing day three pm kickoff Eastern time.

948
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 1: You gotta be betting Villa here, Anthony.

949
00:48:57,640 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 4: You just I don't think he is.

950
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I put the game in the dock because I

951
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 2: want to talk about it. I don't really want to

952
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 2: bet United. I don't actually want to do it.

953
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:11,479
Speaker 1: Like, okay, you could. You could talk to me about

954
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:15,360
Speaker 1: the Villa road splits all you want. United home field advantage,

955
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:17,879
Speaker 1: it's not an advantage this season. It's just so toxic there.

956
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: Like it's they don't win it.

957
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 2: Hold Trafford, yeah, I mean they don't win any well.

958
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: They do and anfield which apparently is the biggest fortress

959
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 1: I've ever we've ever seen.

960
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, nobody wins there.

961
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,800
Speaker 2: I wish the market would downgrade this team so I

962
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 2: could just bet them one time as like a dog

963
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 2: at home.

964
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 1: That's what I'm talking about here, like this is a favorite,

965
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 1: So no, I can't.

966
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 2: Like, I think they should be a slight underdog if

967
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 2: they were, if they were a plus money drawn out

968
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 2: bad here, I take them, but I gotta lay juice.

969
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:48,919
Speaker 4: No way.

970
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 2: It's just crazy to me. I I don't understand. I'll

971
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,920
Speaker 2: never understand. It's not like they're healthy and all these

972
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 2: really talented players are underperforming. And you could say, well,

973
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:01,800
Speaker 2: you know, we have historical baselines for Marcus Rashford. We

974
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:03,240
Speaker 2: know how good he is. We know how good Bruno

975
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 2: Fernandez is. We know how good Casamiro is, we know

976
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 2: how Goodlesandro Martinez is. Like none of these dudes are

977
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 2: playing Fernandez, but like they're not even playing so like,

978
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 2: like who who who is supposed to inspire me? Kabby Manum,

979
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 2: like Scott mccommedy and Amrabat like we loved amra Bat

980
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 2: and Morocco, we love him. Amberbat At Fiorentina. To me,

981
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 2: like he doesn't strike me as like a game changing

982
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 2: Premier League level player, So like what am I missing here?

983
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 2: He's like a squad player that's their midfield. I mean,

984
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 2: Bruno is a good player, Yes, Bruno is the one

985
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 2: player that would scare me in this matchup because if

986
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:43,359
Speaker 2: he can pick one or two balls over the top

987
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 2: against this Villa team that doesn't press for shit and

988
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 2: gives you time on the ball. We all United can't

989
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 2: create for themselves, but when they're given it, they have

990
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 2: some They have enough attacking talent to make you pay.

991
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:58,279
Speaker 2: Like that's the matchup I like here. I like the

992
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 2: fact that like, oh, just gonna let Bruno do his

993
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:03,280
Speaker 2: thing and then he's going to ping balls to Rashford,

994
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 2: ping balls to Hoyland, get Garnacho in space. But it's crazy, man.

995
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 2: Their defense is so bad that you just can't trust them.

996
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 2: So numbers not good enough for me. I really want

997
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:17,320
Speaker 2: to bet you one, just one time. I want to

998
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:22,399
Speaker 2: do it with me and tend to bet against way

999
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:24,760
Speaker 2: more often. But like, it was so fun betting Byron

1000
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 2: against United, like betting Byron against Wolfsburg today, I was like,

1001
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:29,600
Speaker 2: this is so much more fun watching the good teams

1002
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:32,439
Speaker 2: and for them. I want to do that. I want

1003
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 2: to and I want to do the opposite, like I

1004
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 2: want to bet on United and win, Like you know,

1005
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 2: bj got his one win and that had to be

1006
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 2: like the best season no I.

1007
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:42,439
Speaker 4: Ever I'm never going to bet them again.

1008
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 1: That's the best.

1009
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:47,319
Speaker 2: They're going to be catching a goal at Chelsea at

1010
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 2: this rate, So maybe we'll get a chance.

1011
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:52,399
Speaker 1: I I had this conversation with my friend Irisch Paul

1012
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:57,000
Speaker 1: today watching the darts because, uh, the favorites just absolutely

1013
00:51:57,000 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 1: demolished for the first twenty matches and nineteen and one,

1014
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:04,160
Speaker 1: and then we bet a favorite uh today and we

1015
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:05,880
Speaker 1: were just talking about how wonderful it was. It's just

1016
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 1: how great it was just to watch a good team

1017
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 1: play good or good darts player throw good.

1018
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 4: Uh.

1019
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:15,760
Speaker 1: Okay, we'll save the darts talk for for after Boxing

1020
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 1: Day when we get to the pointy pointy end of

1021
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 1: the World Championship. Uh Born myth and Fulham, let's talk

1022
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:25,800
Speaker 1: about them next.

1023
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, b J, why isn't a bigger favorite?

1024
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:34,080
Speaker 2: The market likes this Fulham team. Look at all the lines.

1025
00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 2: They the market things better than we do. They were

1026
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 2: they closed like pretty solidly respected at Newcastle despite you know,

1027
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:49,320
Speaker 2: the line never moved. They closed pretty solidly respectful at Everton.

1028
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 2: They're they're getting market respect this week at Burnley.

1029
00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 4: Like, yeah, I don't get it. We've already been through

1030
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 4: the Fulham song and dance like a hundred times. I

1031
00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 4: don't need to rehash that our slee Bournemouth is improving.

1032
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 4: This is a matchuere they would probably hold a lot

1033
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 4: of possession, but like I have Bournemouth at like plus

1034
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:12,479
Speaker 4: one ten I'm saying, is right. Yeah, so Fulham's getting

1035
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 4: too much market respect. It's gonna be by the way

1036
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:18,160
Speaker 4: if which you know, all signs are pointing to it,

1037
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 4: if Paulinia leaves in January, then it's gonna get really fun.

1038
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 4: Could you go into Byron Finally, it sounds like it.

1039
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:29,800
Speaker 4: There's been there's there's been floated. Some Marsenal and Manchester

1040
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 4: United talk there around there, but I think it's firing

1041
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:34,800
Speaker 4: or nothing at this point, which would be great for

1042
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:37,480
Speaker 4: Buyern but we'll save that for the champions like episodes.

1043
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 4: But yeah, this is session with how much Bournemouth has

1044
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:44,800
Speaker 4: been improving and how crazy this like run that Folham

1045
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 4: has been on, and like you can even like they

1046
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:51,280
Speaker 4: were terrible, like Anthony mentioned they were terrible against Everton

1047
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 4: the League Cup, like they got a red card against Newcastle,

1048
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 4: so you can maybe put an asterisk next to that.

1049
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 4: But I thought Newcastle was about playing them for the

1050
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,560
Speaker 4: first twenty minutes to be get with anyway, Like they're

1051
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:05,839
Speaker 4: the only thing that they've done is essentially two five

1052
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 4: no wins against low block teams and west Ham and

1053
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 4: nine even fourst Like outside of that, where's the like

1054
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 4: really really dominant performance. So outside of beating like Sheffield

1055
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 4: or like Lootingtown, like there really isn't one for Fulham.

1056
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 4: So yeah, they're still not going to have well, Pamenez

1057
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 4: will still be off of this match. Yeah, a third match,

1058
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:30,360
Speaker 4: so still no striker on the road against a Bornman

1059
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:34,840
Speaker 4: team that is surging. Don't understand why my portmant is

1060
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:35,919
Speaker 4: only like plus one.

1061
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:42,320
Speaker 1: Forty Okay, I will continue to jump around Everden and Palace.

1062
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 2: Yeah this is those are the two dogs.

1063
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 4: This is interesting.

1064
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:50,160
Speaker 1: So Everyden's playing Man City at home Everdence plus four

1065
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 1: fifty cities minus one sixty seven cities coming.

1066
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 4: Home from the Club World Cup.

1067
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, the question is like, okay, Kevin Debarne has been

1068
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:04,239
Speaker 2: training these early Earl Hollins should be back. Yeahs back,

1069
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,359
Speaker 2: Docu's back, Like this City team, this is the time, right,

1070
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 2: Like they got to they're not going to play Brentford

1071
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 2: this weekend. They got to make that up in April.

1072
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 2: But right, this is the moment.

1073
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:17,760
Speaker 1: When it sounds almost too neat, you know, it almost

1074
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 1: sounds too neat just to do it, like because it's

1075
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 1: the the fixture list is about the flip. But it

1076
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 1: does feel like every year right around this time they

1077
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:29,799
Speaker 1: just we we take a deep breath and we look

1078
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 1: up in there, like eleven wins out of twelve with

1079
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 1: the draw and however, yeah, like just from a Banning perspective,

1080
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 1: First of all, this number this fixture last year was

1081
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 1: double I think, uh, which just tells you how far

1082
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 1: this evidence roster, who this Everden team has come.

1083
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:52,759
Speaker 2: Wasn't it the match like they were plus one and

1084
00:55:52,800 --> 00:55:54,600
Speaker 2: a half they outplayed them and then lost like three?

1085
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,759
Speaker 2: No do I remember that?

1086
00:55:56,880 --> 00:55:59,040
Speaker 1: Right? They've had a couple of really close ones with

1087
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 1: them and not they've all blur off sideion. There was

1088
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 1: the handball It was a handball, yeah. And then but

1089
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 1: they played well against them, even under Lampard, like they've

1090
00:56:09,200 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 1: they've done a decent job against City. Uh they had

1091
00:56:12,120 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 1: ad did they drove him last year?

1092
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 4: I think they did at right?

1093
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:19,239
Speaker 2: Yeah that was the rock box one. But then they

1094
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 2: played again Yeah I'm telling you they did. Oh yeah,

1095
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:25,920
Speaker 2: Everton away, so they, yeah, they soccer is the best sport.

1096
00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 2: So they played in December thirty third, New Year's Eve.

1097
00:56:30,160 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 2: I remember this match. Everton had point one XG and

1098
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 2: scored a late goal to tie one one. I think

1099
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 2: it was Decorey, it could be it was Dmari Gray.

1100
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 2: Remember that match?

1101
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:40,319
Speaker 1: I do now, Oh yes.

1102
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:42,280
Speaker 2: And then they played toward the end of the season

1103
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:47,319
Speaker 2: and at Everton. Everton had like three or four huge

1104
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 2: chances on set pieces early and then Gundwan scored just

1105
00:56:51,239 --> 00:56:53,080
Speaker 2: before half, and then before you blinked, it was three

1106
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:56,000
Speaker 2: nail City and the total XG in the match was

1107
00:56:56,760 --> 00:56:59,399
Speaker 2: one point six for Everton, point eight for City. Total

1108
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:02,319
Speaker 2: shots were nine to seven and City won three nil.

1109
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:04,239
Speaker 2: Is a road favorite. And I was sitting there with

1110
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 2: both teams to score and plus one and a half,

1111
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:10,800
Speaker 2: just ready to jump off a bridge. So yeah, but no,

1112
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:14,520
Speaker 2: I mean, that's funny, you know, But I mean I'm

1113
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 2: gonna wait and see, like what the status is. Those

1114
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 2: players matter a lot to how good City is because

1115
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:23,040
Speaker 2: they don't really have a big shot person to replace

1116
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 2: Holland or Debrouna. As we've seen that their performances have

1117
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:29,640
Speaker 2: taken a dip considerably if you compare their numbers this

1118
00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 2: year to the numbers like Scott talked about earlier, or

1119
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:37,720
Speaker 2: I said with Scott earlier, like the corresponding fixtures, City's

1120
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 2: pretty solidly down and actually created and XG allowed. I

1121
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 2: think not having to Brun in Holland it's a big

1122
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 2: big part of that for part of those games.

1123
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 1: Palace. Yeah, can I also say, I know you guys

1124
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 1: recorded and talked about the Palace match against Brain coming up.

1125
00:57:54,160 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 1: Palace hasn't has been as bad as.

1126
00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 2: Their results like at all, so they're gonna get better too.

1127
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're their team to start scooping up here in

1128
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 1: this Chelsea match on over the boxing day period they're

1129
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 1: playing the twenty seventh, not a bad spot will.

1130
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 4: Be their match against Brighton is the first time that

1131
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 4: Esa and Elise will be playing together this season, which

1132
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 4: is optimal for Crystal Palace's ability and to break and

1133
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:23,080
Speaker 4: transition and actually create chances.

1134
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:25,080
Speaker 2: Good thing I have the under.

1135
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 4: It's true, but no, I mean the biggest thing we

1136
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 4: always talk about with Crystal Palace, like the Corey being

1137
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 4: out kind of sucks, but defensive solidity, like they're for

1138
00:58:36,800 --> 00:58:39,280
Speaker 4: a team that's you know in the middle of the table, like,

1139
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 4: there's not a better team with defensive solidity. The fact

1140
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:43,440
Speaker 4: that their back for has all been playing together for

1141
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:47,640
Speaker 4: about two years is obviously massive when you're gonna be

1142
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:49,480
Speaker 4: sitting at a low defensive block for most of the match.

1143
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 4: And they've done a great job their last few matches.

1144
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:54,560
Speaker 4: I mean they played Liverpool in City a lot of

1145
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 4: one point two to Liverpool and one point six x

1146
00:58:56,640 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 4: g a City Like that's like, that's impressive stuff that

1147
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 4: they can't go on ignore it. So yeah, and with

1148
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 4: the Chelsea team, like Anthony said, it was playing down

1149
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:09,280
Speaker 4: a man against a Newcastle and to be able to create,

1150
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 4: you know, one expect a goal like it's it's going

1151
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 4: to be a struggle. I wish we could get Palace

1152
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 4: at plus one and a half or not. It's better

1153
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:19,360
Speaker 4: than plus one. But yeah, I agree with you guys,

1154
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:21,320
Speaker 4: Palace and maybe Everton.

1155
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: Okay, uh, unless there's another match you guys want to

1156
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 1: touch on there. Uh let's pepper on uh. Like I said,

1157
00:59:32,080 --> 00:59:36,960
Speaker 1: Syria eyes also kicking kicking around over the weekend. The

1158
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:39,440
Speaker 1: other two or three leagues of the big fiber off

1159
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 1: and you each have a play in Italy.

1160
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 4: BJ what do you have, yeah, Manza Friday, there's four

1161
00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 4: Friday matches in Syria. I'll take Manza jnal Bet plus

1162
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 4: one ten against Fiorentina. I talked about Fiorentina last week

1163
00:59:52,880 --> 00:59:56,440
Speaker 4: when they were playing Verona, but really just an offense

1164
00:59:56,480 --> 00:59:58,880
Speaker 4: that has drastically all performed this season, really not having

1165
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 4: great process numbers, just not creating much once they get

1166
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 4: into the final third, only averaging around one point two

1167
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 4: non penalty XG for ninety minutes, which is put them

1168
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:11,040
Speaker 4: in the bottom ten of Syria. It's going to be

1169
01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:13,600
Speaker 4: a very interesting match because both these teams really want

1170
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:15,720
Speaker 4: to hold possessions, slow build up out of the back.

1171
01:00:16,440 --> 01:00:18,440
Speaker 4: But if you just look at straight expect a goal differential,

1172
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:21,960
Speaker 4: Manza's at minus three point nine and Fiorentina's at minus three.

1173
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:24,480
Speaker 4: So I don't think there's really a reason why I

1174
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 4: Fjorantina should be a road favorite here. So I like Manza.

1175
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:28,480
Speaker 4: Drama Bett at plus one ten.

1176
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Bologna Droono Bett We're not even money

1177
01:00:31,760 --> 01:00:35,920
Speaker 2: at home against Atalanta. Bologna has been considerably improved. Xerxe

1178
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 2: the Byron you know, former Byron guy. Twelve goal involvements

1179
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:42,120
Speaker 2: for him this year, carried them to a win against

1180
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:46,080
Speaker 2: entering the Copa Italia this week. He has been kind

1181
01:00:46,120 --> 01:00:48,480
Speaker 2: of the attack and it's enabled them to be extremely

1182
01:00:48,560 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 2: passive out of possession and be really really good defensively,

1183
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 2: and that I think is the key. Right, So they're

1184
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 2: a top five defense by every metric in Syria from

1185
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:00,960
Speaker 2: you know, a non penalty XG and extrawo percent piece

1186
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:04,040
Speaker 2: allowed and then attacking wise, like they are very good

1187
01:01:04,080 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 2: on the break and Adalanta has been so low event

1188
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:08,880
Speaker 2: this year, you know, almost you know, long for the

1189
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:12,120
Speaker 2: old days of Gasparini. They've been much more defensive and

1190
01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:15,400
Speaker 2: it's led to them just kind of being solidly like

1191
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:17,480
Speaker 2: the seventh best team in Italy, which is fine. You know,

1192
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:19,920
Speaker 2: they're a good team. But Bologna's right there with them.

1193
01:01:19,960 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 2: So why is it a pick them at home? I

1194
01:01:21,680 --> 01:01:22,320
Speaker 2: like Bologna.

1195
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:27,560
Speaker 1: Okay, let's get on to our three legs three legs

1196
01:01:27,720 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 1: underdog parlay. Hey, if ever there's a time to hit one,

1197
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 1: it's right now. In Christmas coming up for a lot

1198
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 1: of listeners. Maybe put some of that holiday money back

1199
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 1: in your pockets. With a sixty seven to one underdog,

1200
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:47,439
Speaker 1: come close. A couple of times this season. Obviously last

1201
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:51,240
Speaker 1: season we hit the big one pretty close to the holidays,

1202
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:55,960
Speaker 1: so maybe some some some fairy dust on this one, Bja.

1203
01:01:56,400 --> 01:01:58,280
Speaker 1: And what a team to start it off with.

1204
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 4: The adverts ten three one, Michael. I mean, this is

1205
01:02:02,080 --> 01:02:04,360
Speaker 4: a great matchup for them, you know, for a Tottenham

1206
01:02:04,400 --> 01:02:06,320
Speaker 4: team that's going to be missing a lot of key players.

1207
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:09,480
Speaker 4: For you know, Everton who has been really really good

1208
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 4: and transition transition offense, especially getting the ball into wide

1209
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 4: areas completed the most crosses of anybody in the Premier

1210
01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:18,640
Speaker 4: League into the penalty area where Tottenham is going to

1211
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 4: build out in two three five, which leaves a lot

1212
01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:22,160
Speaker 4: of space out wide, giving every to the exactly what

1213
01:02:22,240 --> 01:02:24,600
Speaker 4: they want to do. And the Everson defense has been

1214
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:27,920
Speaker 4: drastically improved the season, allowing the fewest big scoring chances

1215
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:30,880
Speaker 4: in the Premier League. Great great spot here for Everton

1216
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:32,520
Speaker 4: three to one on the road against Tottenham.

1217
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 1: Burnley four to one taking on Fulham. This is one

1218
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:41,880
Speaker 1: of those classic matches where the odds are just way

1219
01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:44,440
Speaker 1: too wide and giving way too much respect to a

1220
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:50,800
Speaker 1: team that is below mediocre, that being Fulham. We're getting

1221
01:02:50,800 --> 01:02:52,640
Speaker 1: to the point where Burnley's going to need to start

1222
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 1: picking up these kind of wins if they have any

1223
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:58,200
Speaker 1: hope of surviving. And I like to match up here

1224
01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:01,480
Speaker 1: because I don't really think Fulham can punish not a

1225
01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:04,800
Speaker 1: good offensive team, as Anthony he said earlier, missing their

1226
01:03:04,840 --> 01:03:07,800
Speaker 1: only striker. They're only reliable striker if you can call

1227
01:03:07,880 --> 01:03:12,040
Speaker 1: them that. So yeah, this is it. Burnley up the

1228
01:03:12,120 --> 01:03:16,200
Speaker 1: clarits plus four hundred and Anthony, what do you got.

1229
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:21,040
Speaker 2: Genoo plus two forty against the swallow? This is a

1230
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:25,520
Speaker 2: swallow attack is all pixie dust. They've gotten nine goals

1231
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:29,360
Speaker 2: from Dominico Bararti, twenty nine year old striker. If you

1232
01:03:29,440 --> 01:03:33,280
Speaker 2: watch Bararti, he's a pretty good player. But he's at

1233
01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:36,240
Speaker 2: zero point one point eight non penalty XG for ninety

1234
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:38,919
Speaker 2: this year, and he has nine goals in twelve point

1235
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:41,760
Speaker 2: eight nineties. And it's not just finishing. He's had five penalties.

1236
01:03:42,640 --> 01:03:46,000
Speaker 2: This swallow attack is bottom three in shot quality, bottom

1237
01:03:46,040 --> 01:03:49,120
Speaker 2: three in shot distance. Their attack is entirely based on

1238
01:03:49,160 --> 01:03:50,880
Speaker 2: the fact that they've had a couple of really good

1239
01:03:50,920 --> 01:03:53,480
Speaker 2: penalty calls and a ton of penalty luck for a

1240
01:03:53,480 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 2: team that doesn't even have the ball in the opponent's

1241
01:03:55,080 --> 01:03:58,440
Speaker 2: penaltory that much. And defensively, Genoa is one of the

1242
01:03:58,480 --> 01:04:01,280
Speaker 2: best teams in Syria. They do not concede high quality chances.

1243
01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:03,640
Speaker 2: They do not concede a lot of shots. The Genowa

1244
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 2: attack is nothing to write home about. But just given

1245
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:08,280
Speaker 2: how lucky this is, Swallow attack's been and how overvalued

1246
01:04:08,280 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 2: they are generally as a result of that. Like I said,

1247
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:15,000
Speaker 2: even with all of the crazy penalty luck they've had

1248
01:04:15,080 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 2: this year, they still haven't much worse expected gold differential

1249
01:04:18,600 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 2: than Genoa. And if you remove penalties from the sample entirely,

1250
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:26,840
Speaker 2: Genoa league average team, So Swallow minus point four to

1251
01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:29,680
Speaker 2: five per ninety So I do not believe in this

1252
01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:33,080
Speaker 2: so Swallow team. I like Genoa plus two forty.

1253
01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 1: Sixty seven to one on that one if it comes through.

1254
01:04:36,200 --> 01:04:39,560
Speaker 1: Hopefully it does for all of our sakes as we

1255
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:43,520
Speaker 1: head into Christmas, Jay and I have children, so my

1256
01:04:43,640 --> 01:04:47,000
Speaker 1: money is jingling these days to BJ's. It gets pretty

1257
01:04:47,000 --> 01:04:51,520
Speaker 1: expensive around these parts. Oh yeah, onto best bets now

1258
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 1: for the upcoming Premier League slate, Anthony, are you going

1259
01:04:57,640 --> 01:05:02,400
Speaker 1: to go with Liverpool? No, we talked you out of it.

1260
01:05:02,800 --> 01:05:03,920
Speaker 2: No, it was never gonna be my best.

1261
01:05:05,000 --> 01:05:07,840
Speaker 5: My best bet is Fulham Burnley under two and a

1262
01:05:07,880 --> 01:05:13,280
Speaker 5: half and five, mainly because you guys took the two

1263
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 5: that I really want at least Michael took the one that.

1264
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:20,440
Speaker 2: And the BJ is going to be wrong on his

1265
01:05:20,800 --> 01:05:24,480
Speaker 2: But I like this under because I think that if

1266
01:05:24,560 --> 01:05:26,439
Speaker 2: you want to play against Fulham right now, it's playing

1267
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:28,720
Speaker 2: against the attack at the peak of the market. They've

1268
01:05:28,720 --> 01:05:31,040
Speaker 2: gotten this huge market upgrade. I don't really want to

1269
01:05:31,040 --> 01:05:33,360
Speaker 2: bet Burnley. I don't really trust Burnley's attack, but I

1270
01:05:33,400 --> 01:05:36,680
Speaker 2: also think Fulham, without an actual striker, is going to

1271
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:38,960
Speaker 2: struggle to create chances against this Burnley team that can

1272
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:44,120
Speaker 2: keep enough defensive possession to make this an ugly, ugly game.

1273
01:05:44,240 --> 01:05:46,760
Speaker 2: So give me the under two and a half in

1274
01:05:46,840 --> 01:05:47,360
Speaker 2: that game.

1275
01:05:47,800 --> 01:05:51,440
Speaker 1: Ever did on the money line. Plus three hundred should

1276
01:05:51,480 --> 01:05:54,920
Speaker 1: be able to take advantage of a very helter skelter

1277
01:05:55,520 --> 01:06:01,200
Speaker 1: Spurs defense, and this defense on its own is worth

1278
01:06:01,280 --> 01:06:04,480
Speaker 1: betting on. So BJ talked about it quite a bit

1279
01:06:04,600 --> 01:06:07,440
Speaker 1: in his underdog statement. No need to keep going into why.

1280
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:10,520
Speaker 1: It would be the fifth time we talked about this

1281
01:06:10,640 --> 01:06:13,720
Speaker 1: ever in bet, so I think you've heard enough about it.

1282
01:06:14,040 --> 01:06:20,680
Speaker 4: BJ Arsenal drawn obett plus one ten against Liverpool. I

1283
01:06:20,920 --> 01:06:24,840
Speaker 4: don't see in this matchup how Arsenal is the worst

1284
01:06:24,880 --> 01:06:26,800
Speaker 4: team here. You could give Liverpool a little bit of

1285
01:06:26,800 --> 01:06:28,880
Speaker 4: home field advantage, but I think the match for Liverpool

1286
01:06:28,960 --> 01:06:31,360
Speaker 4: is quite terrible. There's only been one team that Liverpool

1287
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:33,240
Speaker 4: has played this season where they've had to step up

1288
01:06:33,280 --> 01:06:35,840
Speaker 4: in the class of competition of which Arsenal is, and

1289
01:06:35,920 --> 01:06:39,120
Speaker 4: that's against Manchester City. And in that match they were

1290
01:06:39,280 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 4: really really poor. Out of possession. They basically pressed, was

1291
01:06:43,200 --> 01:06:46,000
Speaker 4: basically non existent, they sat in a low defensive block,

1292
01:06:46,040 --> 01:06:48,880
Speaker 4: they allowed City to create two expected goals. And the

1293
01:06:48,920 --> 01:06:51,240
Speaker 4: flip side of this is that Arsenal right now is

1294
01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:53,560
Speaker 4: probably the best out of possession team in the entire world.

1295
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:56,160
Speaker 4: They're pressing and in their rest defense they're only allowing

1296
01:06:56,200 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 4: point seven to two non penalty expected goals for ninety minutes,

1297
01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:01,640
Speaker 4: only six big score chances allowed. They're really good in

1298
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:05,000
Speaker 4: transition defense. So Arsenal's probably going to control this match.

1299
01:07:05,000 --> 01:07:07,120
Speaker 4: They're probably gonna tilt the field and Liverpool, Liverpool is

1300
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:09,200
Speaker 4: going to try to beat them in transition. But again,

1301
01:07:09,240 --> 01:07:12,720
Speaker 4: they're playing the best transition to team defensive team maybe

1302
01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:14,640
Speaker 4: in the world right now. So I think it's a

1303
01:07:14,840 --> 01:07:17,040
Speaker 4: very difficult match up here for Liverpool. At home and

1304
01:07:17,160 --> 01:07:19,800
Speaker 4: one that they're not going to be ready for, similar

1305
01:07:19,800 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 4: to how Brighton wasn't ready for how Arsenal pressed them.

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01:07:22,000 --> 01:07:24,960
Speaker 4: So I love my gunners, John o'batt plus one ten.

1307
01:07:25,000 --> 01:07:26,800
Speaker 4: I have then projected as a road favorite and I

1308
01:07:27,160 --> 01:07:29,240
Speaker 4: at this stage of the season they are a better

1309
01:07:29,280 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 4: team than Liverpool.

1310
01:07:30,520 --> 01:07:32,920
Speaker 1: All right. That does it for this episode of Wonder Goal,

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01:07:32,960 --> 01:07:35,760
Speaker 1: presented to you by Bet three sixty five. It's always

1312
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:39,640
Speaker 1: fine watching these Boxing Day fixtures, depending on them. It's

1313
01:07:39,680 --> 01:07:43,320
Speaker 1: a great time to be a soccer punter. So we

1314
01:07:43,480 --> 01:07:45,920
Speaker 1: hope you all have a great holiday season and a

1315
01:07:46,120 --> 01:07:48,320
Speaker 1: big part of that holiday season is winning some bets,

1316
01:07:48,360 --> 01:07:52,120
Speaker 1: either fading or following us. So for Anthony and BJ,

1317
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:57,160
Speaker 1: have a very happy holidays and we'll see you on

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01:07:57,200 --> 01:07:57,680
Speaker 1: the other side.

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01:08:04,240 --> 01:08:07,680
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1320
01:08:08,120 --> 01:08:10,920
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1321
01:08:11,240 --> 01:08:13,840
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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01:08:13,920 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler