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Speaker 2: As we talk constantly, it seems about the affordability crisis
Speaker 2: here in this country. Everything is getting more expensive, including travel,
Speaker 2: and this morning our top story another one hits the dust.
Speaker 2: Spirit Airlines has ceased operation and grounded its fleet following
Speaker 2: a collapse of that final federal bailout proposal.
Speaker 3: This morning, Transportation sectory Sean Duffy taking to social media
Speaker 3: stating the Department of Transportation is working with major US
Speaker 3: carriers including United, Delta, Jet Blue, and Southwest to cap
Speaker 3: ticket prices for stranded Spirit Airlines passengers, while others offer
Speaker 3: reduced fares and employee support Following service disruptions joining us now.
Speaker 3: Jeff Mason, our White House correspondent, back with us on set,
Speaker 3: along with the Points Guy, Managing editor Clint Henderson, and
Speaker 3: Patrick Dehan had patrolling analysis for Gas Buddy. As Lisa
Speaker 3: mentioned just a moment ago, this is a fuel story,
Speaker 3: very much of fuel story, so we'll get into both
Speaker 3: how that's affecting air travel and cars and trucks as well.
Speaker 3: Jeff Mason, let me start with you and just get
Speaker 3: your perspective on how this fell apart. We heard the
Speaker 3: President yesterday as he made his way from the White
Speaker 3: House to Florida, indicating that this deal wasn't dead. He
Speaker 3: was waiting to see I guess what was on the table.
Speaker 3: And then around three o'clock this morning we heard from
Speaker 3: Spirit that they were in fact closing their doors. What
Speaker 3: happened between when he was walking outside the White House
Speaker 3: in the Rose Garden to when we got that announcement
Speaker 3: early in the morning today.
Speaker 5: Well, I think it sounds like it just didn't turn
Speaker 5: out to be a good enough deal for the government
Speaker 5: and the President, as we've talked about before, likes to
Speaker 5: describe himself as a deal maker. He wrote a book
Speaker 5: about being a deal maker. It's something that's actually hanging
Speaker 5: over the Iran war right.
Speaker 6: Now as well.
Speaker 5: He wants a good deal and it just wasn't a
Speaker 5: good enough deal for him, which is actually sort of understandable,
Speaker 5: because running an airline is not easy, and not just
Speaker 5: running the airline, but the financials of this particular airline
Speaker 5: were obviously so poor that it's now gone out of business,
Speaker 5: and it just didn't turn out to be what they wanted.
Speaker 7: From the federal.
Speaker 2: Side, we're talking about the constraints of trying to run
Speaker 2: a budget airline in this country versus europe. Negotiations with
Speaker 2: really only one pilot's union drives up costs, and then
Speaker 2: of course fuel is the big cost, and it's hard
Speaker 2: to do trying to.
Speaker 8: Keep those prices low.
Speaker 2: Speaking of Clint, I want to ask you, if you
Speaker 2: are a consumer and you liked this budget airline option,
Speaker 2: where are you going to notice this the most, Which
Speaker 2: routes are going to take a hit, and how many
Speaker 2: passengers have any idea how many people are currently stranded
Speaker 2: or without flights.
Speaker 9: We don't know the exact number of stranded passengers, but
Speaker 9: I will say all the major airlines have stepped up
Speaker 9: to offer these rescue fares.
Speaker 10: So that's really encouraging to see.
Speaker 9: I know, American, Delta United, everyone's offering to help out
Speaker 9: stranded passengers here. You know, as far as it goes
Speaker 9: with pricing in any market that Spirit was operating, you're
Speaker 9: going to see fares jump almost immediately. We saw Spirit
Speaker 9: pull out of Minneapolis not too long ago, and Delta
Speaker 9: race fares almost immediately by a substantial margin.
Speaker 10: So that's why, you know, we all love to hate Spirit, but.
Speaker 9: You're really going to hate it when they leave markets
Speaker 9: like Orlando for Lauderdale, you know, places where they drive
Speaker 9: costs down, you're going to see prices really spike.
Speaker 2: Yeah, earlier I was referring it to it as the
Speaker 2: waffle House of the air To be clear, I like
Speaker 2: waffle House. I'm a big waffle House fan. Sometimes it
Speaker 2: hits the spot, and with Spirits sometimes you just needed
Speaker 2: to get there, and now that's one less option.
Speaker 3: I guess Clint I was asking Jeff about the kind
Speaker 3: of political nature of all of this, how the president
Speaker 3: was looking at this perspective. Deal take us behind the
Speaker 3: scenes at this company. This is an airline that had
Speaker 3: gone through two Chapter eleven filings in the last year.
Speaker 3: I guess was retaining some optimism here that it could
Speaker 3: make it through this latest stretch. How much of this
Speaker 3: its decision to close down, is attributable to just general
Speaker 3: problems within the company or are is it attributable to
Speaker 3: just the fact that fuel prices have gone up as
Speaker 3: much as they have recently.
Speaker 9: Look, the cost of jet fuel was the nail on
Speaker 9: the coffin. But the truth is Spirit has not really
Speaker 9: been a profitable company for half of a decade now.
Speaker 9: So my fear is that this is not just a
Speaker 9: Spirit problem. This is a low cost carrier model problem.
Speaker 9: So you know, a bailout of the other low cost
Speaker 9: carriers or even the mainline carriers could be coming if
Speaker 9: the cost of jet fuel remains.
Speaker 10: As high as it is. You know, I'm particularly worried
Speaker 10: about airlines like Jet Blue.
Speaker 9: You know, the truth is, it's very hard to remain
Speaker 9: profitable with the.
Speaker 10: Cost of jet fuel as high as it is.
Speaker 9: But my fears we end up with just the mainline
Speaker 9: carriers left, you know, Alaska and Hawaiian, Southwest, American, Delta United,
Speaker 9: and that means higher fares for all of us. Already,
Speaker 9: we've seen fars jump between ten and thirty for summer travel,
Speaker 9: so fasten your seatbelts.
Speaker 5: On that front, the President has been wanting to have
Speaker 5: a tour around the country. This is something that we
Speaker 5: talked about before, to talk about his economy, to talk
Speaker 5: about his success.
Speaker 7: He can't afford the fuel. I'm just joking.
Speaker 8: Yeah, he probably can.
Speaker 11: He probably can't.
Speaker 10: Sorry, not at all.
Speaker 5: The irony of him wanting to talk about his record
Speaker 5: in the months before the midterms is it's his actions
Speaker 5: that are leading to this going up, leading to the
Speaker 5: fuel prices going up, I mean leading to inflation, the
Speaker 5: inflationary impact of the war, of the oil prices, of
Speaker 5: gasoline prices. It makes a tough political sell when you're
Speaker 5: trying to hold on to control of Congress.
Speaker 2: So Patrick, on that note, gas prices we saw in
Speaker 2: California were really high this week. Planes, trains, automobiles, maybe
Speaker 2: not trains, but definitely cruise ships if you are trying
Speaker 2: to get around, if you're trying to have any kind
Speaker 2: of vacation. Seems like all of these options are not great.
Speaker 2: And just when it comes to affordability, where are Americans
Speaker 2: really going to start to feel these high gas prices
Speaker 2: the most?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 12: Absolutely, I mean West coast areas you're already seeing prices
Speaker 12: over six dollars a gallon in California, you know, so
Speaker 12: the West Coast may not be the place to travel
Speaker 12: this summer. And the nation's interior, whether it's the Plains,
Speaker 12: the Rockies, not so much the Great Lakes right now
Speaker 12: due to some refinery issues, but the nation's interior is
Speaker 12: going to be a little bit more insulated from those
Speaker 12: higher prices this year. And that's just because that fuel
Speaker 12: that is produced in those areas the Plaines and Rockies
Speaker 12: can't as easily be exported as what's produced in say
Speaker 12: the Gulf Coast or the East Coast or the West Coast,
Speaker 12: where we're seeing a lot of pressure now from overseas markets,
Speaker 12: from diesel to jet fuel to gasoline being exported. In fact,
Speaker 12: in the last week alone, the EIA reports that nearly
Speaker 12: one hundred million barrels of oil and refined products have
Speaker 12: left US shores, and that's going to put an immense
Speaker 12: amount of pressure, especially on the West Coast where California
Speaker 12: now with the loss of two refineries in the last
Speaker 12: eight months, that's far more critical.
Speaker 13: California now left to import fuel.
Speaker 12: And keep in mind the interesting part of this is
Speaker 12: some airlines you mentioned Spirit Norse Atlantic saying we're done
Speaker 12: with California because of the risk of a jet fuel
Speaker 12: issue on the West Coast. It's certainly elevated. It's certainly
Speaker 12: not what it might be in areas like Europe. But
Speaker 12: you talk about jet fuel, the prices doubled, some airlines
Speaker 12: saying we're not going to gamble on the West coast.
Speaker 12: And look at all the airlines pulling back from some
Speaker 12: of their routes looking at more efficient boosting capacity. I mean,
Speaker 12: when of Boeing seven eighty seven to nine costs you know,
Speaker 12: hundreds of thousands of dollars to fill, You're talking about
Speaker 12: over five hundred dollars on an average seat map for
Speaker 12: those three hundred seats. It's incredibly expensive right now to
Speaker 12: fly these airlines overseas. The long hauls will probably stick,
Speaker 12: but across the board, from gas to jet fuel to diesel,
Speaker 12: consumers are going to be feeling it left and right
Speaker 12: this summer.
Speaker 3: Patrick, gaze into the gas, Buddy glass Ball, give us
Speaker 3: your clairvoyant take here of what this looks like in
Speaker 3: the summertime. We hear from Kevin Hasset, the President's closest
Speaker 3: economic advisor that these prices could go down as quickly
Speaker 3: as they've come up. It's something for the President says, well,
Speaker 3: this is a blip. I think he said about the
Speaker 3: surge that we've seen in in fuel prices.
Speaker 8: Patrick, what's it going to take.
Speaker 3: Say we had a cessation of fighting that was lasting,
Speaker 3: permanent in the Middle East, how soon would prices recover
Speaker 3: from fact they do?
Speaker 12: Well, you know, you talk about prices going back to
Speaker 12: their pre war level. I think that's next to impossible
Speaker 12: to happen, probably for the good majority of the rest
Speaker 12: of this year, unless the pendulum word to swing wildly
Speaker 12: opened very quickly. I mean, everything would have to be
Speaker 12: going backwards for us to get to that point where
Speaker 12: that's possible. Right, we're not seeing any agreement between the
Speaker 12: US and Iran. We're far apart on that. So strait
Speaker 12: was open until it was closed. So even if there
Speaker 12: is some clarity, it's going to take a little bit
Speaker 12: of verification and time to build confidence. I don't think
Speaker 12: we're going to see any real case of gas prices
Speaker 12: this summer falling below four dollars. Maybe if the straight reopens,
Speaker 12: we could see the national average falling to the mid
Speaker 12: to upper three dollar range. But even then those prices
Speaker 12: are still seventy five cents to a dollar a gallon,
Speaker 12: more than what we're seeing over the winters. So Americans
Speaker 12: are going to have to buckle up. I think we're
Speaker 12: going to start a Memorial Day starting the summer driving
Speaker 12: season with prices over four dollars, And if the President
Speaker 12: doesn't act on reopening the Straight and coming up with
Speaker 12: some solution, that gas prices this summer could even.
Speaker 13: Hit five dollars a gallon.
Speaker 12: Heck, they're already five dollars a gallon on the West Coast,
Speaker 12: in the Great Lakes, they're pushing five dollars a gallon.
Speaker 12: That may become more of a reality for much more
Speaker 12: of the country if the Strait doesn't soon reopen.
Speaker 3: Patrick, I only want to get back to airplanes here.
Speaker 3: But you mentioned those gas prices price we're paying at
Speaker 3: the pump. I know that there's been some speculation the
Speaker 3: President might, through executive action, try to remove that gas tax.
Speaker 3: Would that make a notional difference for those of us
Speaker 3: who have.
Speaker 7: Cars and drive around.
Speaker 12: Well, first of all, that would require an Act of
Speaker 12: Congress to waive that federal gas tax of eighteen point
Speaker 12: four cents.
Speaker 13: Let me color it this.
Speaker 12: Way that Georgia and in Indiana both have gas tax
Speaker 12: holidays right now, but you look at what happened in
Speaker 12: the Great Lakes, and Indiana now is paying the exact
Speaker 12: same as Michigan and Ohio when it comes to gasoline.
Speaker 13: Those do to some refining issues. States have tried this.
Speaker 12: In fact, I think Texas is now talking about other
Speaker 12: states are looking at this. The Canadian government, for their part,
Speaker 12: has also eased a ten cent a leader in Canada
Speaker 12: excise tax. So it would work, but it will require Congress,
Speaker 12: and that's anything but guaranteed. Right now, it would be
Speaker 12: temper I mean, eighteen cents when the national average is
Speaker 12: four forty five a gallon is kind of like rubbing
Speaker 12: salt in the wound. But back to the airlines, by
Speaker 12: the way, earlier this week you talk about trying to
Speaker 12: run an airline in this type of environment.
Speaker 13: Jet fuel in Chicago.
Speaker 12: Briefly spiked well over five dollars a gallon just this week,
Speaker 12: and you're seeing a lot of the these hotspots from coast
Speaker 12: to coast, inland and areas of the coastal region. Jet
Speaker 12: fuel's just all over the map. You fly into Dallas
Speaker 12: and jet feels three eighty. You fly into Chicago and
Speaker 12: it's over five dollars a gallon. That's got to be
Speaker 12: a nightmare for airlines to sort this out.
Speaker 2: Jeff talked to us about the messaging from the White
Speaker 2: House because the President last night was essentially saying oil
Speaker 2: is high, but it could be much higher. It could
Speaker 2: have been much higher. It's actually not as high as
Speaker 2: we expected it to be. Is that going to work
Speaker 2: if we're rolling into midterms and these prices are still there, Because,
Speaker 2: as we've been talking about, ad nauseum insurance is what
Speaker 2: the shipping industry kind of runs on. And even if
Speaker 2: the straight were to open tomorrow, the threshold not only
Speaker 2: to pay these sailors and captains to be willing to
Speaker 2: take that risk, but just the risk factor is going
Speaker 2: to make insurance costs go up, which is going to
Speaker 2: make shippy We're not going to get back to that
Speaker 2: floor anytime soon.
Speaker 5: Well, what the quote that you just decided is vintage
Speaker 5: Donald Trump. I mean to say, oh, I thought it
Speaker 5: was going to be higher, This isn't that bad, And
Speaker 5: also to predict that they're going to come down just
Speaker 5: like that. He doesn't know that, and the reality is
Speaker 5: you're talking about five dollars gas.
Speaker 13: Good grief.
Speaker 5: I mean, being over four dollars a gallon is already painful.
Speaker 5: But if consumers are going into the voting booths in
Speaker 5: November having paid five dollars a gallon for gas, or
Speaker 5: perhaps still paying that much, it's going to be very
Speaker 5: painful for Republicans.
Speaker 3: Clint Henderson with the points guy, let me ask you
Speaker 3: about what you're looking for from the administration going forward here.
Speaker 3: So we have Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy kind of tweeting
Speaker 3: through this a lot of posts on social media this
Speaker 3: morning about what should happen, noting the fact that there
Speaker 3: are going to be these lower fares for passengers who
Speaker 3: are stranded. What is as you see at the role
Speaker 3: of the federal government here as an airline goes under
Speaker 3: and passengers are picking up the pieces.
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, it's really unusual in the United States to
Speaker 9: see an airline.
Speaker 10: Liquid hit like this.
Speaker 9: I'm really glad the government stepped in to try to
Speaker 9: encourage other airlines to take care of these passengers, because
Speaker 9: we really just haven't seen anything like this since two
Speaker 9: thousand and six, two thousand and eight. I expect more consolidation,
Speaker 9: you know, as far as what the government can do,
Speaker 9: I'd love to see them reopen the straight aforemos. That's
Speaker 9: that's gonna be the big answer to a lot of
Speaker 9: these issues. But right now, at the points guy, we're
Speaker 9: telling people, go ahead and book all your flights for
Speaker 9: the rest of the year if you can afford it.
Speaker 9: Lock in prices now, because I do think we're just
Speaker 9: going up from here. I'm booked through spring of next year,
Speaker 9: just because I want to get ahead of it. Because
Speaker 9: it's not just price of tickets, it's fuel surcharges being
Speaker 9: added and rising bag fees. The airlines are going to
Speaker 9: try to recoup this as best they can, and the
Speaker 9: consumers are going to pay for it. And remember, because
Speaker 9: the airlines are also reducing capacity unless we see a
Speaker 9: drop in demand, there's more passengers trying to get fewer seats,
Speaker 9: and that also leads to price increases.
Speaker 7: Let's got spring break already.
Speaker 14: Aspire.
Speaker 2: I aspire to have a kind of life where I can
Speaker 2: plan trips out two years and ad fancies guys hard time.
Speaker 10: Imagine if I don't want to pay more.
Speaker 2: Than I have to, that's I have already been playing
Speaker 2: this summer. Jeff, weeple think about thirty seconds, but would
Speaker 2: like the government to reopen the strait.
Speaker 14: How's that going?
Speaker 5: I mean, the President said this week that he's unhappy
Speaker 5: with the deal or the most recent proposal from Iran.
Speaker 5: It doesn't suggest that there's going to be any agreement
Speaker 5: anytime soon, and there's going to have to be an
Speaker 5: agreement before the strait is opened again.
Speaker 2: And Iran semi official news agency saying something similarly bleak
Speaker 2: this morning.
Speaker 3: All right, thanks to all Jeff Maxon, our White House
Speaker 3: correspondent here on set with us in New York, Clint
Speaker 3: Henderson with the points guy Patrick Dehan of Gasbuddy, giving
Speaker 3: us an update on those fuel prices, which of course
Speaker 3: were a huge factor in Spirit's decision, so much as
Speaker 3: it was Spirit's decision to close down news that we
Speaker 3: got this morning at about three o'clock Wall Street Time.
Speaker 3: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 2: Right after this, the two biggest US oil companies reported
Speaker 2: earnings Friday for the first time since the Iran war began.
Speaker 2: Exceon and Chevron beat xpecations, with oil and gas prices
Speaker 2: rising since February which offset drop and supply.
Speaker 3: We spoke with our colleague Javier bloss columnists for Energy
Speaker 3: and Commodities.
Speaker 7: Here Bloomberg opinion that the.
Speaker 3: Ongoing threat to global energy supplies take a listen.
Speaker 15: It's not just the price of oil and natural gas
Speaker 15: outside the North.
Speaker 11: America that have gone up.
Speaker 15: Also, refining margins have been incredibly high through the month
Speaker 15: of March, and both Exon and Chevron indicated that they
Speaker 15: run the refinery is very hard through that period. So
Speaker 15: I think that that is one of the key reasons
Speaker 15: that the results have been as good and surprising to
Speaker 15: the upside to Water Street.
Speaker 2: We've been hearing from the administration. President Trump meant with
Speaker 2: a head of sentcom and it seems like they want
Speaker 2: to stick with this blockade. I have two questions for you.
Speaker 2: How much pain is this actually inflicting on Iran? And
Speaker 2: talk to us about the storage issue. The administration says
Speaker 2: Aaron is running out of storage.
Speaker 14: Is that real or not?
Speaker 15: Well, Stepping from the first part of your question, it's
Speaker 15: inflicting quite a lot of pain. Iran effectively is losing
Speaker 15: around one hundred and seventy five million million dollars a
Speaker 15: day in lost income from the oil revenue from the
Speaker 15: oil esports. But the key question is that enough for
Speaker 15: Iran to come to the negotiation table with an offer
Speaker 15: that is good enough for President Trump, And the answer
Speaker 15: potentially is not enough. Iran made quite a lot of
Speaker 15: money for the first two months of the war where
Speaker 15: it was able, and the US have no problem letting
Speaker 15: Iran selling his oil. So in some way they have
Speaker 15: some money that they cash in in the early days
Speaker 15: and weeks of the war, and they can't use that
Speaker 15: extra money that they made to cushion the current blow.
Speaker 15: On the question of is going to be any long
Speaker 15: term damage to the oil wells, my Viieo is no.
Speaker 15: First of all, Iran is still loading oil into tankers.
Speaker 15: It was on Friday according to satellite pictures that we
Speaker 15: were with you in a bloomberg loading a super tanker
Speaker 15: at car Island. So that's an indication that Iran still
Speaker 15: has access to tankeys that they were inside the Persian
Speaker 15: golf when the blockade started, and it has on short storage.
Speaker 15: So I don't see Iran having to start reducing production
Speaker 15: at the earliest until probably the middle of May. And
Speaker 15: will that cause some damage, Probably not, And even if
Speaker 15: there was some damage will be that really what is
Speaker 15: going to proad the Iranian authorities to come to the
Speaker 15: table with an offer. The President Trump is satisfied Again,
Speaker 15: I don't think so.
Speaker 3: In the midst of this ceasfire, how much production is
Speaker 3: ron able to do? Just just give us your advantage
Speaker 3: on the gree to which oil production run continues to pace.
Speaker 15: Well, if we look at crude oil and condensates, Iran
Speaker 15: was producing around three and a half million borrows a day,
Speaker 15: sporting about one point eight million borrows a day, and
Speaker 15: the rest goes to the domestic market. So Iran needs
Speaker 15: to produce somewhere between one seven and one eight million
Speaker 15: borrowers a day used.
Speaker 11: To keep the country fuel.
Speaker 15: Perhaps the demand now in Iran is a bit lower
Speaker 15: than otherwise because of the destruction of the world, because
Speaker 15: people are not traveling because mobility is down. But Iran
Speaker 15: is a big oil consumer on his own, so significant
Speaker 15: chunk or his production goes into the domestic market and
Speaker 15: then the rest of it goes to the esport market.
Speaker 15: At the moment, Iran is loading still tankers, but those
Speaker 15: tankers cannot really reach the high seas that are stopped
Speaker 15: by the US Navy. That's where we are today. At
Speaker 15: some point they will run out of tankers. They will
Speaker 15: need to start a store in the oil on shore
Speaker 15: into tanks, and at some point they will have to
Speaker 15: reduce production, cut shut down the world. Shut in the
Speaker 15: world we call it in the oil industry. That moment
Speaker 15: has yet to arrive.
Speaker 2: You said, Iron probably has to make the decisions starting
Speaker 2: at the end of May. What about other big producers
Speaker 2: in the reason, Are there any other producers that you
Speaker 2: think are nearing or will near their storage capacity and
Speaker 2: start to throttle back potentially sooner rather than later.
Speaker 15: Well, every other producer in the Persian goal have already
Speaker 15: maxed out there storage capacity. That's what production in places
Speaker 15: like kube Iraq Katar has completely collapsed. Saudi Arabia and
Speaker 15: the United Arab Emi dates continue to produce oil. That's
Speaker 15: because they have bypass pipelines that they can bypass the
Speaker 15: Strato Hormus reach the Golf of Woman in the case
Speaker 15: that the Ue or the Red Sea in the case
Speaker 15: of Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 11: That's the reason that they keep producing.
Speaker 15: But everyone else in the region have to take those
Speaker 15: decisions to shut in oil wells.
Speaker 11: In the very early days of the war, and no one.
Speaker 15: Really at the White House is talking about the Kubeiti
Speaker 15: oil fields exploding because they have to be shut down.
Speaker 15: I think that this focus on Iran having particular problem
Speaker 15: is misplaced. Everyone in the regum produced oil from a
Speaker 15: very similar carbonate reservoirs. Yes, perhaps the Iranian oil fields
Speaker 15: are older and have so low pressure it has been
Speaker 15: and the Sanchel don't have American technology, but the Iranian
Speaker 15: petroleum engineers have been very creative over the last forty
Speaker 15: plus years to keep those oil fields running despite everything
Speaker 15: you mentioned.
Speaker 3: The UAE UA saying cyanara at opek plus, which is
Speaker 3: meeting this weekend, So I imagine those members are going
Speaker 3: to lick their wounds then try to plot a path
Speaker 3: forward here.
Speaker 13: What does that look like?
Speaker 3: How does opek plus move on from the UAE going
Speaker 3: its own.
Speaker 11: Well.
Speaker 15: On the short term, nothing changes because with opech so
Speaker 15: with the UE living, but they cannot increase production because
Speaker 15: of the strait of hormones remains close and the UAE
Speaker 15: is already maxed out on the bypass pipeline that they
Speaker 15: are using.
Speaker 11: So short term nothing changed.
Speaker 15: Medium time, if the stray hormones reopens, the UE will
Speaker 15: start increasing production.
Speaker 11: They will be demand for those barrels.
Speaker 15: Because we are really running down the walls oil inventories,
Speaker 15: both on the commercial side and strategic inventories. Everyone is
Speaker 15: going to have to buy extra oil to replenish those inventories.
Speaker 15: But we were wondering where that extra oil was coming.
Speaker 15: Now we have a bit of an answer that extra
Speaker 15: oil probably is going to come from the UIE. Long term,
Speaker 15: that's a more difficult one. I think that the UE
Speaker 15: keeps increasing production. I put Saudi Arabia on a corner.
Speaker 15: At some point in Saudi Arabia is to the side,
Speaker 15: say middle of twenty seven, early twenty eight, do we
Speaker 15: want to reduce production to keep prices higher or we
Speaker 15: just join the United Arab EMI days and that also
Speaker 15: other members in that cartel are going to be thinking
Speaker 15: are we taking the right decision staying with the saudiast
Speaker 15: or should we follow the UIE. And I think that
Speaker 15: we're gonna see over the next few months other countries
Speaker 15: are starting to talk quite openly about potentially leaving the cartel.
Speaker 2: That was my question is if you look at those
Speaker 2: OPAC members, especially once you do throwle production, I mean
Speaker 2: some I think you can correct her around Libya and
Speaker 2: Nigeria pretty much produced at a capacity most of the time.
Speaker 2: But those who are really those big players have to
Speaker 2: be watching us very closely, and can Saudi hold this together?
Speaker 2: If you're going to pick the next potential defector out
Speaker 2: of OPEK, who would be your bet?
Speaker 11: I would say two names.
Speaker 15: One on the OPEC plus group, on the Big Alliance,
Speaker 15: I will be Kathakhstan. They are acting like they are out,
Speaker 15: but they are keeping inside because of the relationship with
Speaker 15: Russia and because probably they say, well, we're gonna produce
Speaker 15: as much as we can. We are cheating all the time.
Speaker 15: Better to cheat within the group and we get some
Speaker 15: of the information and some of the upside. We are
Speaker 15: free riding effectively the cartel. But can Kathakhtan at some
Speaker 15: point say goodbye? I think that that's a candidate. The
Speaker 15: other one inside OPEK and one of the founding countries
Speaker 15: and one where the US has a lot more influenced. Venezuela,
Speaker 15: the government of Delcia Rodriguez says that they're staying, but
Speaker 15: at some point over the next twelve to eighteen months,
Speaker 15: I will expect, I will hope that we will see
Speaker 15: the democratic elections in Venezuela if that election turns to
Speaker 15: opposition government, the opposition historically has been hostile to Opek,
Speaker 15: and then we can see Venezuela leaving and that will
Speaker 15: be a big deal because a country that wants to
Speaker 15: produce more oil, that is going to have probably the
Speaker 15: investment to produce more oil, and it was one of
Speaker 15: the founding countries of Opek.
Speaker 11: That will be a big deal.
Speaker 15: That will be the first departure of one of the
Speaker 15: original founders.
Speaker 7: Have your last question for you.
Speaker 3: Iron is doing all of this right now and there
Speaker 3: is talk I know of finding ways to reroute oil
Speaker 3: going forward in the future.
Speaker 8: How long is that likely to take? How real is it?
Speaker 3: There could be kind of a whole new infrastructure built
Speaker 3: here the next years for decades to get oil out
Speaker 3: of this region.
Speaker 15: Well, you don't have a lot of permitting fights in
Speaker 15: Saudi Arabia. The Royal Palace decides to do a new pipeline,
Speaker 15: they just do it. The original east to west pipeline.
Speaker 15: That is the one that we are using at the
Speaker 15: moment to bypass the Stradio hormones. That that's the one
Speaker 15: that runs from the Persian Gulf in the east of
Speaker 15: Saudi Arabia to the west coast into the Red Sea
Speaker 15: that was built in the eighties in four years, and
Speaker 15: that's when they have to build the whole the whole line,
Speaker 15: do all the earth movement, all the you know, all
Speaker 15: the difficult job. So I will think that for five
Speaker 15: years Marx we see a lot more pipelines.
Speaker 11: So we have this odd situation. We are a peak of.
Speaker 15: The influence of Iran on the Stradio hormones. They have
Speaker 15: never had a grip on the stradi of hormones as
Speaker 15: they have. But just because they are having that grip today,
Speaker 15: that grip over time will will will will be weekend
Speaker 15: because more countries in the region will build bypass pipeline.
Speaker 15: I'm sure that Saudi Arabia will increase the capacity of
Speaker 15: their East West pipeline.
Speaker 11: I'm sure that the UIE is going to do the same.
Speaker 15: Key question is does Kube built a pipeline and it's
Speaker 15: so through where probably south to Saudi Arabia and then
Speaker 15: across to the Red Sea. Do other countries do on
Speaker 15: my Qatar built his own pipeline, perhaps through Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 15: That's politically more complicated. What Iraq wants to do has
Speaker 15: options through Syria, has another option through north to Turkey.
Speaker 15: There's already a pipeline there. It will be a question
Speaker 15: of expanding. So the reions pipeline politics are going to
Speaker 15: get really interesting over the next few years.
Speaker 2: And if you don't follow Javier on Twitter as most
Speaker 2: of us do, please do you'll learn a time. Stay
Speaker 2: with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. Right after this, the.
Speaker 3: Crypto project, held by the Trump and Whitcoff families is
Speaker 3: under fresh scrutiny this week after Bloomberg reported investors put
Speaker 3: in more than five hundred and fifty million dollars and
Speaker 3: now are locked out of the majority of their holdings,
Speaker 3: with the token trading around fifty four cents.
Speaker 13: Now.
Speaker 2: This is where actor Ben McKenzie, that's right, Be McKenzie
Speaker 2: of the oc fame comes in. He is the writer
Speaker 2: and director of a new film investigating cryptocurrency, and he
Speaker 2: sat down with the leaders of Crypto, including Sam bankman
Speaker 2: Fried and others. Take a listen.
Speaker 7: How did you get here?
Speaker 16: Shot a great question. Have a degree in economics as
Speaker 16: an undergraduate. The pandemic hit. The showbiz really wasn't functioning,
Speaker 16: especially for actors, and so I was bored out of
Speaker 16: my mind and a buddy of mine came to me
Speaker 16: and he said I should buy bitcoin.
Speaker 6: It was, you know, in the news, the celebrities were
Speaker 6: hawking it.
Speaker 16: And I love my buddy, but he's given me terrible
Speaker 16: financial advice before he had.
Speaker 14: As many friends do, as many.
Speaker 16: Friends do, and in my twenties he'd encouraged me to
Speaker 16: invest in some random company that had supposedly produced synthetic blood.
Speaker 16: This was a fairnose with some precursor scam. Anyway, I
Speaker 16: put money in, he put money, and we both lost it.
Speaker 16: He came back to me and said I was buy bitcoin,
Speaker 16: and I'm like, Dave, I am not gonna buy bitcoin.
Speaker 7: What is it?
Speaker 11: You know?
Speaker 16: And he did that thing or he's like it's a
Speaker 16: crypto card scene and I'm like, so it's money. You
Speaker 16: can buy stuff with it, oh.
Speaker 6: You know?
Speaker 16: And I was like, Dave, are you sure you know
Speaker 16: what you're getting into?
Speaker 6: Anyway, that led me down a rabbit hole.
Speaker 3: Somebody with you talk isn't a storian of fraud, and
Speaker 3: he talks about surf what goes through the mind of
Speaker 3: a frauds or how a fraud is executed? What did
Speaker 3: you learn about kind of the way that those who
Speaker 3: are perpetrating frauds, be they financial or otherwise, are thinking
Speaker 3: about what they're doing in real time.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I found that fascinating.
Speaker 16: This guy, Dan Davis wrote a book called Lying for Money,
Speaker 16: which I highly recommend if you're into true crime and
Speaker 16: how true crime and financial crime and how frauds work.
Speaker 16: And one of the things he told me that I
Speaker 16: thought was fascinating is that frusters are not like other criminals.
Speaker 16: They're not They don't generally commit violent crimes, and they
Speaker 16: often start out as legitimate businessman and then sometimes they
Speaker 16: entered the fraud through a mistake.
Speaker 6: Sometimes it's intentional.
Speaker 16: But the lie gets bigger and bigger and bigger. But
Speaker 16: they have to conceive of themselves as legitimate businessmen. They're
Speaker 16: sort of the ultimate method actors, right, Like they have
Speaker 16: to believe their own story, which I think explains perhaps
Speaker 16: why Sam BigMan Fried was willing to talk to me
Speaker 16: on camera, even though in our Twitter profile it said
Speaker 16: writing a book on crypto and fraud, so like, I
Speaker 16: couldn't understand that, but I think he felt I think he.
Speaker 3: Still feels that he's a legitimate businessman. You sit down
Speaker 3: with him in New York. Yeah, like we have a
Speaker 3: clip of that.
Speaker 16: I had a conversation with Alex Meshchensky, Yeah, yep. I
Speaker 16: asked him how much real money is in crypto, and
Speaker 16: he said ten to fifteen percent.
Speaker 6: He said the rest is speculations.
Speaker 17: So as of today, I think the number of dollars
Speaker 17: in crypto not changed massively between then and now.
Speaker 6: One would perhaps there's lessons.
Speaker 13: They certainly have not increased.
Speaker 17: I don't think they've decreased massively, though, which I think
Speaker 17: lines up with some of your thoughts that, like a
Speaker 17: lot of this was leverage leaving this.
Speaker 16: Part of the problem if they haven't left, is that
Speaker 16: people can't get their money out. Imagine this is a
Speaker 16: regulated back.
Speaker 13: Oh yeah, this would be a big That would be
Speaker 13: a big problem.
Speaker 16: This does not seem like the decentralized, democratized future of
Speaker 16: money that we were promised.
Speaker 17: I think we've seen all the major carnage in the
Speaker 17: crypto industry already.
Speaker 3: Throughout that interview, he's kind of making a claim that
Speaker 3: all the front all the bad actors have been felled. Yeah,
Speaker 3: and that crypto is wide open and a clearer slate
Speaker 3: than perhaps we all expected.
Speaker 16: Right, And then like five months later he's arrested. Yeah,
Speaker 16: I mean, this is the constant this is a repetitive
Speaker 16: theme in crypto is no, no.
Speaker 6: Okay, that was the bad guy. Oh no, actually that
Speaker 6: was the backing. Well, no, this one.
Speaker 16: You know, at a certain point, the way I understand
Speaker 16: it is this, Look, there's the retail trading pop and
Speaker 16: those people are not bad people.
Speaker 6: They're trying to make some money.
Speaker 16: I mean maybe some of them are, but they represent
Speaker 16: normal retail investors and I am not.
Speaker 6: I am not doing this against them.
Speaker 16: I'm trying to protect them from an industry that I
Speaker 16: don't I think doesn't care about them, you know what
Speaker 16: I mean.
Speaker 6: I don't see the crypto.
Speaker 16: Companies really doing anything to protect their customers. In fact,
Speaker 16: what they're doing is trying to change the rules, get
Speaker 16: special legislations so that they aren't treated like banks or
Speaker 16: securities or whatever. And so yeah, I would say that,
Speaker 16: like that's my motivation. I find the sort of constant
Speaker 16: deflection of like just that one bad apple.
Speaker 6: On that one.
Speaker 16: But it doesn't make any sense. I mean, there's so
Speaker 16: much crime in crypto. A crypto company last year estimated
Speaker 16: that one hundred and fifty four billion dollars of criminal
Speaker 16: activity was facilitated the a cryptocurrency in twenty twenty five alone,
Speaker 16: and that's from a crypto company, So it might be
Speaker 16: on the low end of the inspect That is an enormous,
Speaker 16: staggering amount of criminal activity. And it's everything from like
Speaker 16: Russian oligarchs selling sanctioned oil to the Chinese and exchange
Speaker 16: for drones or sending to Ukraine. It's isis, it's a
Speaker 16: lot of money launer.
Speaker 2: North Koreans are very involved in it, you know, trying
Speaker 2: to steal it, trying to use it, getting around sanctions.
Speaker 16: Half the hackers, the North Round hackers, half of the
Speaker 16: North Korea nuclear weapons program was funded via the crypto
Speaker 16: hacking teams.
Speaker 2: Why hasn't there been any kind of pushback because these
Speaker 2: people have gone to jolly scams have been revealed and
Speaker 2: there's you know concept.
Speaker 16: That's a great that's a great question. I would let's
Speaker 16: see there's I would say there's a couple of parts.
Speaker 16: The first is so in twenty twenty two, we were
Speaker 16: on our way. In twenty twenty three, we're on our
Speaker 16: way to like some sort of reckoning. Yeah, Sam was
Speaker 16: in jail. Shehan Peng Shao Finance pled guilty to money laundering,
Speaker 16: a bunch of other people into jail. Alex Maschenski, who
Speaker 16: I interview in the movie, is in jail. And then
Speaker 16: Trump turned to suddenly loving cryptocurrency. In the summer of
Speaker 16: spring summer of twenty twenty four re election, he had
Speaker 16: called bitcoin a scam as recent he is twenty twenty one.
Speaker 16: But whether he saw there was money to be made
Speaker 16: for himself, or whether he saw a constituency that he
Speaker 16: needed to will young men that might have been as well,
Speaker 16: he's all of a sudden love crypto. Then people quite
Speaker 16: frankly rationally did the calculation of well, if he's it's
Speaker 16: a fifty fifty shot of him getting re elected, and
Speaker 16: if he gets elected, he can do a lot and
Speaker 16: has done a lot. I'll talk about that in a second.
Speaker 16: So they started betting on it and the price went
Speaker 16: up and it went crazy. It was like one hundred
Speaker 16: and twenty thousand dollars by the time he was in office.
Speaker 6: And now he's done, He's delivered on that.
Speaker 16: They've disbanded the DOJ Cryptocrime Task Force, the SEC has
Speaker 16: been gutted. They passed this bill called the Genius Act,
Speaker 16: which if you know this Congress and it's called the
Speaker 16: Genius Act, got to be stupid. And what it does
Speaker 16: is allow, amongst other things, allow corporations to issue their
Speaker 16: own money in the foremost table clips, So literal corporate.
Speaker 6: Money is what we're talking about.
Speaker 3: I'll ask you lastly just about what really seems to
Speaker 3: animate the movie. You talked about just a moment ago.
Speaker 3: That is, people who have done this and lost a
Speaker 3: ton of money. So Celsius, which build itself, is this
Speaker 3: kind of anti bank people put a ton of money
Speaker 3: into and lost all of it, And a sobering moment
Speaker 3: in the movie as you're talking to many of these
Speaker 3: folks around the country, maybe around the world, who have
Speaker 3: lost their fortunes in some cases and are having to
Speaker 3: reckon with all of that. I think about that in
Speaker 3: the context of the conversation with Alison Shinsky, who started
Speaker 3: that company, who I think you later describe as kind
Speaker 3: of a carnival barker and seems that way when you're
Speaker 3: at a conference kind of sitting around with him on
Speaker 3: couches like these. What is it that's so persuasive about
Speaker 3: this industry to people that maybe they let their guard
Speaker 3: down or they don't have any inhibitions about going into
Speaker 3: this nascent financial product.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 16: I mean it's partially get rich quick scheme, which is
Speaker 16: the oldest scheme in the books, but to be sympathetic,
Speaker 16: and I am sympathetic to the people that have lost
Speaker 16: a lot of money. I think if crypto serves any function,
Speaker 16: it's to redirect us back to the regulated system and
Speaker 16: the failures of the regulated system to convince people that
Speaker 16: they are to give people a shot at act getting ahead.
Speaker 16: You know, I think the thing that's really pernicious about
Speaker 16: it is that, you know, you mentioned the interviews I
Speaker 16: did with the Celsius victims.
Speaker 6: I bonded.
Speaker 16: I bond with him at the beginning of the movie,
Speaker 16: and at the end of the movie, I come back
Speaker 16: to them and I ask them the same question, which
Speaker 16: is do you still believe in it having lost.
Speaker 6: All the money?
Speaker 16: And they all said yes. So amongst the hardcore group
Speaker 16: you're really talking about. I described the movie as a
Speaker 16: It's a projection of the hopes and dreams of all
Speaker 16: of those investors. And as long as the crypto industry,
Speaker 16: as long as the crypto industry will.
Speaker 6: Keep selling the story, as long as they're buying it.
Speaker 2: Well, that's disappointing, highly accurate, and we're going to have
Speaker 2: to leave it there. Thank you very much, McKinnie, Thank
Speaker 2: you so much for coming in.
Speaker 4: Thanks guys, stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 8: Right after this, Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 3: I'm David Gera with Christina Raffini, and it is the
Speaker 3: most exciting in two minutes in sports, the one hundred
Speaker 3: and fifty second running of the Kentucky Derby tonight at Churchill.
Speaker 2: Downs all right last year nearly half a billion dollars
Speaker 2: or bet on race week. Recently, we spoke with David Popadopolis.
Speaker 2: He is Bloomberg's managing editor and the in house expert
Speaker 2: here on horse racing, especially when it comes to picking
Speaker 2: an unlikely winner. Here's our long shot.
Speaker 18: In general at the racetrack, betting on really really long shots,
Speaker 18: is it fool's errands.
Speaker 14: It's a it's a sucker bet, but.
Speaker 2: It's so tempting because the payout is so huge.
Speaker 18: That's exactly right. But so on most days of the year,
Speaker 18: it's a terrible bet. Okay, on Kentucky Derby day in
Speaker 18: the Derby, it's a fantastic bet, or at least it
Speaker 18: has been over the last few decades. And when I
Speaker 18: say really long shots, I'm not talking about.
Speaker 14: Eight to one or twelve to one. Those can be fine.
Speaker 18: I'm talking about forty to one, in fifty to one,
Speaker 18: in eighty to one. Those horses have one a handful
Speaker 18: of times in recent years, and you just hit one
Speaker 18: of those, and man, it'll pay for a lot of
Speaker 18: losing tickets.
Speaker 14: The most recent of them, which is a few.
Speaker 18: Years ago in twenty twenty two, a horse rich strike
Speaker 18: one at odds of eighty to one. There are a
Speaker 18: bunch of things that make that the case, that make
Speaker 18: the Derby a great race to bet on really long shots,
Speaker 18: and the single thing though, that drives it all is
Speaker 18: it's just a very chaotic, random race. None of these
Speaker 18: horses being young three year olds. The Derby's only for
Speaker 18: three year old horses. None of them has ever raced
Speaker 18: this far in their career. They've raced a mile, a
Speaker 18: mile on a sixteen, so on, so so you don't
Speaker 18: exactly know which of them are going to really relish
Speaker 18: that distance.
Speaker 14: That's one thing. The other thing is the crowd. One
Speaker 14: hundred and fifty.
Speaker 18: Thousand people there on hand. This is unlike anything these
Speaker 18: horses have ever experienced before. They're used to like seven
Speaker 18: thousand people showing up for a race and things being
Speaker 18: sort of subdued, and horses being, you know, flight animals
Speaker 18: skittish by nature. A lot of them are really set
Speaker 18: off by the crowd and lose their minds before the race.
Speaker 11: I know that.
Speaker 2: So even horses who are used to racing can get
Speaker 2: freaked out by the louder.
Speaker 18: Oh wow, like a hundred percent happens all the time.
Speaker 18: It happens all the time. And the last thing, and
Speaker 18: perhaps the most important of those chaos factors, is the
Speaker 18: size of the field. There are twenty horses in the
Speaker 18: Kentucky Derby race on a typical race on that typical
Speaker 18: sleepy Thursday in July where there're seven thousand people and
Speaker 18: not one hundred and fifty thousand people on hand. There
Speaker 18: aren't twenty horses in the starting gate. There are seven eight.
Speaker 18: They actually a Churchill Downs. They have a special twenty
Speaker 18: horse starting gate that they only bring out once a
Speaker 18: year for the Kentucky Derby to get all twenty horses in.
Speaker 18: And when you have twenty horses on the track at
Speaker 18: the same time in a cavalry charge stampede. It creates
Speaker 18: all sorts of traffic pile ups and collisions and suicidal
Speaker 18: speed duels between two Like all sorts of weird things happen.
Speaker 18: You have had year after year, terrific horses that have
Speaker 18: done great things before the derby and great things after
Speaker 18: the derby, flop terribly in the Derby just because all
Speaker 18: this weird stuff happens, and so as a result get
Speaker 18: you can get these really random results like that one
Speaker 18: eighty to one a few years ago.
Speaker 2: So if I wanted to place my bet, I don't
Speaker 2: have to be at Churchill downstend Oh, talk to us
Speaker 2: how the rise of online betting and gambling has changed
Speaker 2: the Derby and how people wager on it.
Speaker 6: Well, you know all.
Speaker 18: These racetracks, Churchill Downs included, you know, has their betting app.
Speaker 2: Have they had it for a while?
Speaker 18: Yeah, So, Georgie Dowam's got Twin Spires, the New York
Speaker 18: tracks have Nayra Bets, my betting app of choice. And
Speaker 18: there are a whole bunch of others out there fan duel.
Speaker 18: You know, the sports books now are trying to get
Speaker 18: in a little bit, and I think they're having some success.
Speaker 18: We ran the numbers on betting on uber long shots
Speaker 18: in the Derby this century. It's produced a positive ROI
Speaker 18: a positive return of fifty this century.
Speaker 2: Bed All right, So what are you gonna do? Are
Speaker 2: who are you backing? Are you gonna bet? Are you
Speaker 2: gonna bet a long shot?
Speaker 14: Are gonna bet? Of course I'm a gambler. Yes, I'm
Speaker 14: gonna bet.
Speaker 2: Renegade is an early favorite four to one odds, But
Speaker 2: there's quite a few fifty to one horses.
Speaker 6: Are you going to do it?
Speaker 18: Yeah, so a few of the long shots for sure.
Speaker 18: And actually, truth be told, being the true degenerate I am.
Speaker 18: I've already locked some of those long shots locked in
Speaker 18: bets in the futures market.
Speaker 14: The odds change, ads, do change it?
Speaker 7: Do you change? Okay?
Speaker 18: And at the track it's it's it's a funny system
Speaker 18: for a lot of people. Like when you bet a
Speaker 18: horse at fifteen to one with twelve minutes to go
Speaker 18: before the race, you don't necessarily get fifteen to one,
Speaker 18: you get the final price that the horse goes off at. Okay,
Speaker 18: But so for sure, some of the long shots and
Speaker 18: then some of the more likely horses you know I
Speaker 18: like the Puma.
Speaker 14: Is a good name, good horse. More importantly, emerging market.
Speaker 2: It's a horse named emerging market.
Speaker 14: Yeah, so he's owned, but you.
Speaker 2: Work at Bloomberg, you have to bet on the horse
Speaker 2: emerging market.
Speaker 18: I actually started my career in emerging markets. So yes,
Speaker 18: actually owned by a hedge fun.
Speaker 14: Guy at a Boston so a horse out of Japan
Speaker 14: called Dan and Berman.
Speaker 18: Now, the Japanese have been trying to win their first
Speaker 18: Derby for many years now, and Dan and Berman there's
Speaker 18: a lot of buzz around him that he might be
Speaker 18: the one.
Speaker 14: Chief Wallaby is the last of the four.
Speaker 2: I'll give you got a love horse name. All right,
Speaker 2: we're gonna have to leave it there, but if you
Speaker 2: win on all those fifty one odds, you're gonna come
Speaker 2: back tomorrow and tell us all about it.
Speaker 14: Absolutely right, Thank you so much, No problem, the.
Speaker 3: Great David Papadopolis, you missed that, and you missed out
Speaker 3: with Yeah, that was fun. I'm just looking at the
Speaker 3: latest odds here. Renegade five to one, Intrepido fifty five
Speaker 3: to one. In your favorite emerging market, we're eleven to one.
Speaker 3: All right, I'm going to engage in this.
Speaker 2: I think I missed my window, but I should have.
Speaker 2: I want to put money on emerging markets in general.
Speaker 7: And the horse enjoyed that immensely. Again.
Speaker 3: Kentucky Derby hundred fifty second running of it taking place
Speaker 3: razy this weekend.
Speaker 7: Get your mint tulips ready.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg This Weekend podcast.
Speaker 2: Don't forget to tune in live for the show every
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Eastern.
Speaker 3: We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App,
Speaker 3: bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics,
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