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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. Whether further ado.

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Speaker 2: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 2: I'm if you try that again. Absolutely.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network podcast Buckets Edition.

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Speaker 1: My name's Matt Moore.

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Speaker 3: I'm the senior NBA writer for the Action Network, joined

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Speaker 3: by NBA Futures analyst Brandon Anderson. We're gonna be giving

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Speaker 3: you the quick and dirty details on the Best Finals

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Speaker 3: Awards and one other future to make as the NBA

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Speaker 3: season resumes after the All Star break by to.

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Speaker 1: Have you with us.

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Speaker 3: Want to let you know that absolutely everything we talk

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Speaker 3: about is covered in the Action Network App, the award

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Speaker 3: winning app that helps you track your bets, get up

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Speaker 3: to the second information on where the bets and money

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Speaker 3: are coming in on. You can follow Brandon's prop picks,

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Speaker 3: They're always a nice hit there.

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Speaker 1: You can track your own futures.

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Speaker 3: You can get my analysis on playoff odds, all sorts

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Speaker 3: of stuff, as well as Raheem Palmer's brand new MVP

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Speaker 3: Productions article. Over the Action Network app. You can also

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Speaker 3: follow the podcast Buckets. We host Buckets multiple times a week.

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Speaker 3: I'm on there like four different times It's a great

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Speaker 3: time if you want to know more about NBA betting,

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Speaker 3: not just picks, but the process, how Raheem Palmer professional

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Speaker 3: better goes through it, how Brandon approaches his futures plays,

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Speaker 3: all those type of things. Download buckets on your mobile

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Speaker 3: device right now. Brandon, thanks for joining me on this

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Speaker 3: Wednesday afternoon for the season begins. Glad to have you

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Speaker 3: with us. We're gonna go through our best bets for

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Speaker 3: title futures, player awards, and then one extemporanea bet on

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Speaker 3: any sort of other future that you can find. Let's

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Speaker 3: not waste time, Brandon, surely you're gonna give me some

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Speaker 3: sort of really reasonable answer for the NBA title future.

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Speaker 3: I'm guessing the Suns. Maybe the Nets obviously get Kyrie

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Speaker 3: Irving might get cleared. Maybe the Bucks the defending champion.

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Speaker 3: Who do you like as your NBA Finals bet to

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Speaker 3: start off?

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Speaker 2: Yes, you know how I love to bet on my

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Speaker 2: favorites and never long shots. Now we're going all long

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Speaker 2: shots here today. So if you've been listening to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast all season long from NFL, you know

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Speaker 2: that kind of the way I felt about NFL going

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Speaker 2: into the playoffs was I just didn't feel like there

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Speaker 2: was a top team that I trusted. I felt like

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Speaker 2: there was a bunch of good teams that were flawed

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Speaker 2: in that the fields were ripe for some underdog run.

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Speaker 2: I grabbed the Niners. The didn't quit work out, the

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Speaker 2: Bengals end up being the underdog that got there. That's

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Speaker 2: kind of where I'm at on NBA. I'm looking for

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Speaker 2: who's the underdog. I don't love the odds right now

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Speaker 2: on the teams you said, Matt, the Box, the Sons,

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Speaker 2: the Warriors, the Nets. I get it. I get all

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Speaker 2: of them. I get how they can get there, But

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Speaker 2: I don't love the odds. I'm looking for an underdog.

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Speaker 2: And boy, somehow I have talked myself Matt Moore into

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Speaker 2: coming on to the Action Hour podcast and backing the

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Speaker 2: Los Angeles Lakers plus forty five hundred to win the title.

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Speaker 2: Not often do we get to bet on Lebron James

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Speaker 2: as an underdog, not just an underdog forty five to

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Speaker 2: one underdog. So here's the scenario. I know it looks

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Speaker 2: bleak right now. They're the nine seed. Right now, we

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Speaker 2: only got like twenty games left in the season. They're

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Speaker 2: almost certainly going to have to come out of the

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Speaker 2: play in, so you could not even make the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: You can miss the plane entirely. But here's the upside scenario.

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Speaker 2: Lebron is Lebron. We get to the playoffs, we know

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Speaker 2: he has that gear. Anthony Davis is rested and going

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Speaker 2: to be arrested and healthy by the time we get there.

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Speaker 2: If we get to the playoffs, we're gonna suddenly have

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Speaker 2: Lebron and rested Anthony Davis. That gives the Lakers a

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Speaker 2: pretty good chance of having the top two players in

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Speaker 2: any game, in any scenario, depending on how things go.

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Speaker 2: We saw how it went the last time Anthony Davis

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Speaker 2: was resting healthy in the playoff bubble. That's when they

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Speaker 2: won the title. You get to the playoffs, you escape

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Speaker 2: the play in, you get a Suns or Warriors team

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Speaker 2: missing Chris Paul or Draymond Green or maybe with a

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Speaker 2: slightly lesser version of them. After that, it opens up.

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Speaker 2: The West is pretty open. You might get Dallas, Utah,

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Speaker 2: Memphis and a Round two. I think the Lakers are

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Speaker 2: probably favored in that series, and from there you've got

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Speaker 2: a good chance to hedge. You're in the final four.

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Speaker 2: We know Lebron makes the finals. That's my pick, forty

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Speaker 2: five to one Lebron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.

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Speaker 3: Let's go well, let's just go ahead and kill all

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Speaker 3: of our credibility just right out the box. We'll just

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Speaker 3: go ahead and murder our credibility and leave it in

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Speaker 3: a gutter right out of the box here. So look,

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Speaker 3: we talked about this on the Buckets podcast earlier this week.

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Speaker 3: We did kind of a similar type of pod longer.

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Speaker 3: I can't disagree that you can talk yourself into it.

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Speaker 3: But like a best betman, I asked for a best bet,

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Speaker 3: and you gave me the Los Angeles Lakers. There is

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Speaker 3: an even chance that Lebron James shuts this down. Man

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Speaker 3: that's been floated. Their schedule is brew Davis is out

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Speaker 3: several more weeks. If there is a point Lebron's frustration is,

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Speaker 3: he's not hiding it, and he may just get to

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Speaker 3: a point where he's like, nah, man, nah, this is

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Speaker 3: I'm not wasting my time on this.

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Speaker 1: We're not going anywhere. I'm not gonna go.

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Speaker 3: Ahead and risk injury and put more miles on my

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Speaker 3: body to play in the plan. I'm not doing this

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Speaker 3: Like that's entirely possible. I don't mind he taking a

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Speaker 3: flyer on it, but a best bet, Brandon.

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Speaker 2: Here's the thing. Forty five to one is about a

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Speaker 2: two percent implied odds. I'm looking for the edge on

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Speaker 2: the percentages. I agree. Like, Look, forty five to one

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Speaker 2: means that forty four of the times we're gonna lose

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Speaker 2: this bet. But if we go forty five times out

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Speaker 2: the rest of the season, can't the Lakers make or

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Speaker 2: run more than one of those times? I think they do.

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Speaker 2: You have to know if you place this bet, like

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Speaker 2: I have the Lakers at forty four percent to lose

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Speaker 2: in the first round, twenty seven percent to not even

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Speaker 2: get out of the play in So you got like

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Speaker 2: a two out of three chance that your bet is

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Speaker 2: dead before the playoffs got going. That's part of the buck.

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Speaker 2: We don't need a huge chance, we just need much

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Speaker 2: better than one forty five. I put them around like

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Speaker 2: six or seven percent to win the title. That means

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Speaker 2: we're getting like three times the value here.

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Speaker 1: If you're still talking about seven percent, you want to

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Speaker 1: tie up money on a seven percent chance, even if

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Speaker 1: you're getting ev.

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Speaker 2: I do, I mean, I do.

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Speaker 1: That's how I go.

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Speaker 2: I just want the value, Who do you like?

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Speaker 1: All right?

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Speaker 3: I will go with the Milwaukee Bucks at plus six fifty.

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Speaker 3: There's still a lot of confidence internally amongst the Bucks

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Speaker 3: that they're going to get brook Lopez back sometime in

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Speaker 3: the month, and more if they get brook Lopez back,

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Speaker 3: this team is still very well positioned to win the title.

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Speaker 3: They have signature wins versus the Nets, they signature wins

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Speaker 3: versus the six Ers, even after the loss before the

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Speaker 3: All Star Break.

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Speaker 1: They match up well with basically every team. I think

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Speaker 1: Miami is a tough one.

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Speaker 3: I almost put Miami here, like I was very close

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Speaker 3: to putting Miami as as the one, but I can't

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Speaker 3: really get there. So I'm gonna go ahead and then

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Speaker 3: go with the Milwaukee Bucks. I believe in their combination.

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Speaker 3: I've said this sporadic throughout the year, but since this

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Speaker 3: is the time when people start paying attention, there's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a lot of conversation about Durant foot on the

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Speaker 3: line and how close the Nets were to beating the

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Speaker 3: Bucks even without Harden and Irving, and now they're going

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Speaker 3: to have Irving likely and then Ben Simmons a couple

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Speaker 3: of thanks here.

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Speaker 1: One.

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Speaker 3: I don't think you can trust Kyrie Irving because he's

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Speaker 3: been in and out and he's always had injury issues.

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Speaker 3: He just has he hasn't been able to play complete seasons.

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Speaker 1: That's concerned. You got Ben Simmons.

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Speaker 3: We don't know what shape Ben Simmons is going to

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Speaker 3: come in. I think the additions of Andre Drummond and

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Speaker 3: Seth Curry helped them, especially Seth Curry. I don't know

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Speaker 3: how much it helps them.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how much.

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Speaker 3: Like he's a little redundant with Patty Mills, it's nice

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Speaker 3: to have another guy, especially the make up for Joe

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Speaker 3: Harris who may may not get back. They have a

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Speaker 3: lot of shooting. I still don't trust this defense. The

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Speaker 3: last four games of the Nets Bucks series last year,

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Speaker 3: the Brooklyn Nets gave up a one to twelve defensive rating.

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Speaker 3: The first couple of games there was like a one

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Speaker 3: to oh one because the Bucks just couldn't score. They

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Speaker 3: had their usual problems where it's they would get the

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Speaker 3: looks and the but the shot would just rattle out.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bucks move past that.

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Speaker 3: I don't trust the Nets to be able to hold

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Speaker 3: this team under a one to ten offensive rating. I

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Speaker 3: do trust the Bucks defense to slow down Brooklyn over

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Speaker 3: the course of a series. I think Kevin Durant could

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Speaker 3: be the best player in basketball and they can still

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Speaker 3: get this done. Kyrie Irving does not make me more

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Speaker 3: confident in a team.

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Speaker 1: He is an.

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Speaker 3: Incredible dribbler, he is an incredible shot maker. I do

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Speaker 3: not believe that Kyrie Irving shapes the game the way

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Speaker 3: that Chris Middleton, Drew Holliday and Jannistan a Compoup most

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Speaker 3: especially do Kevin Durant shapes the game. But I do

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Speaker 3: think that the Bucks have a better system, a better core.

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Speaker 3: I think they're better coached. Despite all of the concerns

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Speaker 3: with Mike Budenholzer, I think that the Bucks have lost

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Speaker 3: a lot of important depth. Like that's an issue, Like

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Speaker 3: the Bucks are much much thinner, and that's getting to

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Speaker 3: be an issue. But I think the minutes of Bobby

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Speaker 3: Ports has given him. I think Grayson Allen can be

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Speaker 3: the Britain Forbes in a series that they need. I

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Speaker 3: do still think that this team is the most common

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Speaker 3: I think this team just believes, like no, no, no, when

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Speaker 3: we're at it, we're the best. And I do believe

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Speaker 3: that confidence differential the year over year matters, even if

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Speaker 3: they need to foot on the line and a bunch

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Speaker 3: of injuries. I still think that that matters. I like

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Speaker 3: the Bucks plus six fifty to win the NBA title.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a great case. I mean, we just saw

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Speaker 2: it happen. We know they can do it, and I

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Speaker 2: think you're right. If you're betting on the Bucks, you

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Speaker 2: have to be betting on that the mental shift that

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Speaker 2: they did it and now they believe they can do it,

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Speaker 2: and that that genuinely matters. And I think it does.

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Speaker 2: Like we love to look at the numbers and everything

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Speaker 2: like that, but you have to believe that you can

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Speaker 2: get it done. And we've seen, you know what belief

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Speaker 2: did for the Miami Heat, getting them all the way

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Speaker 2: the finals the year before that. They just felt like

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Speaker 2: the good measure up. And I think you're right. The

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Speaker 2: Bucks when they have their three guys believe and we

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Speaker 2: know how good they've been with those three. I absolutely

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Speaker 2: agree the Bucks are definitely much more likely to win

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Speaker 2: the title than the Lakers. I just don't think there's

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Speaker 2: seven times more likely, like the number. I'll take the

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Speaker 2: long shot.

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Speaker 3: I think the number is impacted a lot for the

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Speaker 3: Bucks by the regular season numbers are are outweighing what

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Speaker 3: they should in the models. Like Basketball References posted their

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Speaker 3: odds to win the title and the Bucks roly at

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Speaker 3: two point eight percent, and that makes sense, like they're

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Speaker 3: not power rated well in my models.

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Speaker 1: Because they haven't had their guys and they haven't.

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Speaker 3: Really played the full strength. The Bucks are a coasting

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Speaker 3: title team, and I don't think the model. I do

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Speaker 3: not think the models are taking that into account and

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Speaker 3: we're not giving them I think the proper respect like there,

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Speaker 3: I think the questions about the Bucks, there's some questions

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Speaker 3: about the depth. I think for sure, if Brook comes back,

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Speaker 3: then you're screwed. But I do think that they'll still

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Speaker 3: be favorites in a lot of the series, which presents

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Speaker 3: you with hedge opportunities as you go along. At six

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Speaker 3: and a half, even though it's not forty two to one,

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Speaker 3: I still think that there's probably a pretty good return

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Speaker 3: on investment there. Let's do the player awards, so lots

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Speaker 3: to talk about. We did an MVP episode with Raheem

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Speaker 3: and Palmer over on Buckets.

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Speaker 1: You can check that out.

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Speaker 3: Brandon, I think you're gonna go in a different direction though,

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Speaker 3: what's your best player award?

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Speaker 1: Future? The rest of the way.

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Speaker 2: Yes, certainly, MVP is obviously much sexier. Some of these

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Speaker 2: awards I don't think are really worth playing at this point,

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Speaker 2: guys like Evan Mobley, John Morant, Tyler Heiro. I think

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Speaker 2: those awards are mostly locked up. And I know, you

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Speaker 2: know you talk about this a lot, Matt. You want

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Speaker 2: to bet on the long shot here, like who's going

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Speaker 2: to make a run now it's the second half of

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Speaker 2: the season. No, it's really not. We're if the season

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Speaker 2: was running a race, we'd be rounding that last corner

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Speaker 2: and down the stretch we come like we're here. There's

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Speaker 2: not a lot of time to close. So I think

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Speaker 2: you need a race that's a little more open. I

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Speaker 2: think the race that's open as Defensive Player of the Year.

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Speaker 2: So we know Draymond Green now is going to miss

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Speaker 2: another three or four weeks, which sucks because that was

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Speaker 2: my pick before the season. I'm still hoping that we

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Speaker 2: get a chance on that one. But if Draymond is out,

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Speaker 2: I still don't believe Rudy Gobert, the favorite, is going

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Speaker 2: to get the vote because I think there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of voter fatigue. People are tired of the jazz, they're

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Speaker 2: tired of Rudy being great in the regular season and

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Speaker 2: then the Jazz folding the playoffs. Giannis already won the award.

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Speaker 2: I don't know there would be a lot of momentum

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Speaker 2: for him. I've been looking all season. Who's the alternative,

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Speaker 2: Who's if it's not Draymond, If Draymond isn't healthy enough,

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Speaker 2: what's the alternative? So I got another long shot here.

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Speaker 2: I like Robert Williams from the Celtics, and it's telling

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Speaker 2: that I have to tell you who the team he's on.

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Speaker 2: But he's five thousand plus five thousands, so fifty to one.

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Speaker 2: Make sure to shop around. He's the fifth favorite at

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Speaker 2: some books, as low as twelve to one at some

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Speaker 2: of them. So get the line. Here's the thing with

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Speaker 2: Defensive Player of the Year. It's an individual award, but

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Speaker 2: it's often a team award. Staff from Vincanity fifteen on Twitter.

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Speaker 2: Defensive Player of the Year team rank in defensive rating

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Speaker 2: since two thousand and eight one one one three five

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Speaker 2: two to two three one one two two one. That's

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Speaker 2: all top three defense except for one. Top three defense

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Speaker 2: right now are the Warriors, the Celtics, the Suns, and

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Speaker 2: then the Calves are the other one that could break in.

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Speaker 2: The Celtics are second. They're closing hard. They've had the

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Speaker 2: best defense in the league over the last probably six weeks.

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Speaker 2: Now they're gonna pass the Warriors soon, especially with Draymond out.

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Speaker 2: Robert Williams has been getting a lot of buzz lately.

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Speaker 2: They moved him out of the paint. He's a help defender,

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Speaker 2: coming down and swatting a ton of shots. Celtics are

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Speaker 2: second league in the blocks. They are first in the

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Speaker 2: league in effective field goal percentage on defense under fifty percent.

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Speaker 2: As a team, their defense is going to get better

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Speaker 2: now they have Derek White in and Canter and shrewder Ghann,

293
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Speaker 2: more Grant Williams and Daniel Tice. That's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: nasty defense it already is. I think they get a

295
00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:20,680
Speaker 2: lot of attention down the stretch here as the Celtics

296
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Speaker 2: rise up the standings. Robert Williams, I don't know. I

297
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Speaker 2: think get all the way there, you might end up

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Speaker 2: having to cash out as your option here, but I

299
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Speaker 2: think there's definitely value there. But at fifty to one,

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Speaker 2: I think he's a very strong play.

301
00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:34,880
Speaker 3: If you can get a you just can't take anything

302
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Speaker 3: below ten thousand, like you can't take anything belowtend like

303
00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:38,800
Speaker 3: there's not a single bet.

304
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Speaker 1: You can take below ten to one, Like you have

305
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Speaker 1: to go to try and get a fit, Like they're

306
00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:43,839
Speaker 1: these long shots for a reason.

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Speaker 2: Brandon, Yes, there, but at this point of the season

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Speaker 2: with awards, Yes, I would much rather bet the long

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Speaker 2: shot here in a race that I don't You Do

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Speaker 2: you agree that Defensive Player of the Year is a

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Speaker 2: legitimately open race right now?

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Speaker 1: Yes? I agree that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So I've been looking at that race for two

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Speaker 2: months now saying, Okay, if Draymond is hurt and can't

315
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Speaker 2: win this, who I thought was gonna win it? Who is?

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Speaker 2: Because I don't believe in Rudy or in Yannis, and

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Speaker 2: I've just am looking for an alternative, and Robert Williams

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Speaker 2: is the alternative that has finally kind of come through

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Speaker 2: for me here.

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Speaker 3: So I have a pick, and then I want to

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Speaker 3: talk about something else, another option real quick. On Awards,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to follow the same time of thinking that

323
00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:29,040
Speaker 3: you have, which I think dpo Y has the best

324
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Speaker 3: value here, but I'm going to not go with Robert Williams.

325
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Speaker 3: I am going to go, however, with a simly priced

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Speaker 3: player fandel which is Michale Bridges a plus sixteen hundred.

327
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Speaker 3: So here, I think is the difference. One Williams has

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Speaker 3: had injury issues. He's been in and out of the

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Speaker 3: lineup all season long. That's problem. Second, he only really

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Speaker 3: kind of came out of the scene last year, like

331
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Speaker 3: he played like that back half of last year. You

332
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Speaker 3: got to give the voters time to get to know

333
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Speaker 3: a player and time. Lord has not gotten been a

334
00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,760
Speaker 3: player that's been the rotation long enough. McHale Bridges has

335
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Speaker 3: has a reputation for like the last three years of

336
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,480
Speaker 3: you know what's really good Hill Bridges and then last year,

337
00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,440
Speaker 3: you know it's really good McKale Bridges. And now you

338
00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,080
Speaker 3: have a situation where if you look at the best

339
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Speaker 3: defensive teams in the league based off of adjusted defensive

340
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Speaker 3: rating over at dunkston threes dot com, the best teams

341
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Speaker 3: are the Warriors are number one. Draymond would have won.

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Speaker 3: He's not gonna win.

343
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Speaker 1: I'm pissed that should have been the Like, I still

344
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Speaker 1: think there's a chance that Draymond just gets the vote

345
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Speaker 1: that they're just like, you know what, screw it, Like

346
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Speaker 1: it's Draymond to Boston is second.

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Speaker 3: You're absolutely right there. But again when we talked about

348
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Speaker 3: how they don't know him, Cleveland's third. I will just

349
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Speaker 3: say this, Evan Mobley should probably win the damn thing.

350
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Speaker 1: Yeah, like he's not going to because he's a rookie.

351
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Speaker 3: Evan Mobley legitimately should probably win the thing, and that's

352
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Speaker 3: crazy for a rookie.

353
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Speaker 1: That's how good he is.

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Speaker 3: And if you want proof of that, based off of

355
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Speaker 3: estimated plus minus defensively per Dunkston threes dot com, Evan

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Speaker 3: Mobley is fourth as a rookie.

357
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Speaker 1: It's insane. Brandon like the Cavs pit the third best

358
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Speaker 1: defense and it's mostly because of Evan Mobley, who's a rookie.

359
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Speaker 3: It's wild He's gonna win it next year. I'm almost

360
00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 3: positive he's gonna win it next year. The Suns that

361
00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,120
Speaker 3: were fourth. Bridges has a marquee game where he shut

362
00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,640
Speaker 3: down Steph Curry. The Sun's defense has been great all year.

363
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 3: Bridges will get the most credit for that beyond everybody else.

364
00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:09,800
Speaker 1: They will want to award.

365
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,920
Speaker 3: The Suns with something, and it may be Coach of

366
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:13,520
Speaker 3: the Year, but bicker Staff I think has a really

367
00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:14,280
Speaker 3: good chance there.

368
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,640
Speaker 1: MVP Chris Paul's not going to get especially with the injury.

369
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Speaker 3: So I think Bridges at sixteen to one actually has

370
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Speaker 3: pretty good value.

371
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Speaker 1: I like mchial Bridges in that spot.

372
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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I think it's a very strong play. I

373
00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:27,880
Speaker 2: worry a little bit that it feels like the Suns

374
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,400
Speaker 2: might sputter a little toward the finish line with Chris

375
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Speaker 2: Paul out, So with Bridges, like, I don't know where's

376
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,720
Speaker 2: the spot where Bridges gets Where, Where's he going to elevate?

377
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:38,320
Speaker 2: Where are they going to make the push? The Celtics

378
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:39,960
Speaker 2: gon to make a push up the standings. The Suns

379
00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 2: are there already. They can really only be worse than

380
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,520
Speaker 2: what they've been so far with Chris Paul out. So

381
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Speaker 2: I just I worry, where's the moment, even the National

382
00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:50,920
Speaker 2: TV game, the big moment. I don't know if it's

383
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Speaker 2: there for him, but I'd be very happy. I love

384
00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 2: mkil Bridges. I think it's a first team All Defense guy.

385
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Speaker 2: Because of your argument, I just don't know if he

386
00:16:58,160 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 2: gets the award here I.

387
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Speaker 3: Said this on I do think that I'm a little

388
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,560
Speaker 3: wary of buying in on the Celtics right now. What

389
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,320
Speaker 3: we're basically saying is like the stock has jumped by

390
00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:08,479
Speaker 3: forty three percent, and we think it's going to continue

391
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,159
Speaker 3: to go up to one hundred and fifty eight percent.

392
00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 3: At some point, the Celtics are going to level off.

393
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:17,040
Speaker 3: They just will like they will probably cool off shooting

394
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:19,600
Speaker 3: or something, or there'll be an injury or something.

395
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:21,439
Speaker 1: I don't know that I want to be buying in

396
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:22,520
Speaker 1: the Celtics stuff right now.

397
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 3: I would have loved to buy them two weeks ago

398
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:26,800
Speaker 3: when I talked about, like, you know what's weird, but

399
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,560
Speaker 3: the Celtics are still top five and in offense or

400
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 3: in defense and then net rating at dunkson' and threes?

401
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:36,280
Speaker 3: Why is that one other option? By the way, at

402
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:38,360
Speaker 3: various books, there's a couple that you can do this at.

403
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:40,720
Speaker 3: You can actually parlay Mobilely to win Rookie of the Year,

404
00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 3: jaw to win Most Improved, and Tyler Hero at minus

405
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,760
Speaker 3: eleven fifty to win six man. That gets you to

406
00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,600
Speaker 3: minus one sixty three at FanDuel. And what you can

407
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:52,840
Speaker 3: do then is you can then take Embiid, Jokic, Jannis

408
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,959
Speaker 3: and you can actually round robin it and you're going

409
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,360
Speaker 3: to come away with a pretty pretty good price if

410
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:01,359
Speaker 3: you do mb with those three, it's plus two ninety five.

411
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 3: If you do Jokic, it jumps to four ninety seven,

412
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:05,480
Speaker 3: and if you do yan As, it jumps to six

413
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 3: ninety one. So if you if we consider those three

414
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 3: to be locks, which I do, and if you think

415
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 3: that the MVP is going to come.

416
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,800
Speaker 1: From one of Giannis, Embiid and Jokic.

417
00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,119
Speaker 3: I know Brandon still thinks STEP's got a shot at this,

418
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:20,560
Speaker 3: But you take those three and you can parlay it.

419
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:21,720
Speaker 1: I do a round robin.

420
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,200
Speaker 3: I actually think that's a pretty good value bet based

421
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 3: off of getting four to one return on these. I

422
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,639
Speaker 3: do not see any way that Evan Mobley does not

423
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:30,520
Speaker 3: win Rookie of the Year. I don't see any way

424
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: joh doesn't win Most Improved, and I don't see any

425
00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 3: way that Tyler Hero doesn't win six Man of the Year.

426
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 2: One hundred percent agree with you. I actually already bet

427
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,399
Speaker 2: this in several different ways. This was going to be

428
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 2: my best bet, and I was like, Nah, that's boring

429
00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 2: just betting the favorites. But you don't even have to

430
00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,639
Speaker 2: put this on MVP. You can put those guys and

431
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,919
Speaker 2: parlay it with you whatever. Pick somebody to win their

432
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 2: premier League, pick a title, you know, pick NFL futures.

433
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,720
Speaker 2: You basically, if you agree and I do agree that

434
00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 2: these three guys are locks, that there is very little

435
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 2: chance that they're not going to win this award, you

436
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 2: basically could use this as like a forty percent profit

437
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,160
Speaker 2: boost on whatever other bet that you want to make.

438
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,600
Speaker 2: So I even I've bet this just with like a

439
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 2: nightly spread, and I want to spread. Now I have

440
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 2: to wait out and make sure that these guys hit.

441
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,360
Speaker 2: So I agree. I think it's a great way to play.

442
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 3: It right and final one you get one more extemporaneous

443
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 3: any sort of et cetera.

444
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 1: Bets. What is another future that you want to get

445
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:25,680
Speaker 1: money in right now?

446
00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, so one thing. You gotta do this quickly because

447
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 2: I think these odds will disappear once the games start.

448
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,160
Speaker 2: But I have an article up at the Action Network

449
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:37,119
Speaker 2: breaking down the scoring leader race right now. Jannison and

450
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,679
Speaker 2: Beide are the favorites. They're leading the scoring race. I

451
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:42,160
Speaker 2: don't like them. I'm not going to make the case

452
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 2: so I can check out the article. I also don't

453
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 2: love the long shots because like guys like Booker, Staph DeRozan,

454
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 2: the guys that you want to get to this is

455
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 2: a math problem. We only have about twenty two games

456
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,880
Speaker 2: left for most of these guys, and if you're more

457
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: than a couple points back, it's really hard to close

458
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,639
Speaker 2: that gap up. So DeRozan under by the way, is

459
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 2: another better recommend there. I'm playing two picks here. I'm

460
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,199
Speaker 2: playing the third guy and the fourth guy. So I

461
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 2: like Lebron and Luca. I'm gonna play both of them

462
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 2: to win first scoring leader. Lebron is at plus three

463
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 2: ten at FanDuel Luka Doncic is at one thousand, so

464
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 2: ten to one at DraftKings. Lebron right now twenty nine

465
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 2: point one points per game, so he's within a half

466
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 2: a point. But remember both of these guys have a

467
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 2: similar case. No Anthony Davis. Lebron in twenty games without

468
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 2: Davis this season thirty two point seven points per game.

469
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 2: You're right, maybe Lebron just shuts this down. That's entirely

470
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 2: in play here. But if he doesn't, maybe Lebron just

471
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 2: has to do everything over this last month and carry

472
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 2: them like he has without Anthony Davis. And by the way,

473
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 2: Lebron likes passing Michael Jordan on things. Guess who the

474
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 2: oldest scoring champion in NBA history is it's Michael, So

475
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,920
Speaker 2: this would be if you can't win the finals, why

476
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 2: not win a scoring title? Why not just go have

477
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 2: your scoring titles since two thousand and eight, I believe

478
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 2: I think Lebron is legitimately the favorite. He would be

479
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 2: my favorite here plus three ten. I like him. The

480
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 2: longer shot I do like is Luka Doncic coming into

481
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 2: the break thirty five point four points a game over

482
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,400
Speaker 2: his last ten forty one and a half points a game.

483
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 2: Since the Porzingis trade, gee, I think he's glad Porzingis

484
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 2: is gone. And again it's the same thing. No porzingis

485
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 2: no second star. Also no Tim Hardaway Junior. For a while,

486
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 2: he's averaging thirty three and a half Without Hardaway. There's

487
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 2: not a lot of scoring there and a secret advantage.

488
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,200
Speaker 2: Remember Luca missed a lot of December, so he's only

489
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 2: played forty four games. That's good because these games coming

490
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 2: up are weighted more for him because he has less

491
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 2: those early chubby games will call them, they don't have

492
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 2: as many of those. We got a lot of games

493
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 2: coming up that will matter for him. He's gonna play

494
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 2: a lot. He rarely sits out. I like the over

495
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 2: on Luka Doncic's scoring points per game. I think he

496
00:21:57,760 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 2: is a great ten to one bet to win scoring leader.

497
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be one of those two guys,

498
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 2: Lebron or Luca.

499
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 3: All Right, for mine, I'm going to take an NBA

500
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 3: Finals matchup over at bet MGM. I gave out Sun's

501
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 3: heat over on the act on Buckets on the Tuesday episode,

502
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 3: which you could check out. I do think that you

503
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 3: could still get very good value on a number of these.

504
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 3: I just think that there's value on a bunch of

505
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 3: these different teams that you can get to like. I

506
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,640
Speaker 3: like betting the finals matchups. It gives you a bunch

507
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 3: of hedge opportunities when you get into the playoffs. And

508
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 3: like as Brandon knows, I'm always basically trying to build

509
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 3: a complicated hedge option to come out with like a

510
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 3: good amount of money.

511
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: Brandon wants fifty to one.

512
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 3: I am looking for like one and a half to

513
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 3: one at the end with covering all my bases.

514
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 1: I'll tell you this, Brandon is tough. I don't know

515
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 1: what's going to happen any year, right, Like, what does

516
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 1: anybody now? It's sports. That's why we watch.

517
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 3: I am way more open to all possibilities right now,

518
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 3: Like there's just not like a dominant team where you're

519
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 3: just like, oh, absolutely them.

520
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 1: The closest thing is the Suns, and I'm going to

521
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 1: take the suns.

522
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 3: But I do think that there's probably value to talk

523
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 3: off of what I did earlier. You can get Bucks

524
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,439
Speaker 3: suns at plus one thousand. You can get if you

525
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 3: want to go this route, and you're just like, look,

526
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 3: I still think that Kevin Durant is the best team,

527
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 3: is the best player, and I believe in the best

528
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 3: player in the postseason. You can get Nets suns for

529
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,959
Speaker 3: ten to one, like the best team in the in

530
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 3: the Western Conference and Kevin Durant in the finals at

531
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 3: ten to one.

532
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 1: That's pretty good value. So I think they taking both of.

533
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 3: Those options along with the heat option, You're gonna come

534
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 3: out with a profit if any one of those combinations hit,

535
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 3: and it.

536
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: Gives you a great hedge opportunity.

537
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 3: Still like if it's if the Eastern Conference finals are

538
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 3: any combination of NETS heat, and even if you want

539
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 3: to go six ers, if you want to go that right,

540
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 3: you can, And then the other side is suns versus whoever.

541
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 3: That gives you a great hedge opportunity because the Suns

542
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 3: will be favored in the Western Conference Finals versus just

543
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 3: about anybody, and then like the only team that can

544
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 3: maybe disrupt them before they get there is the Lakers.

545
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 3: You can take Brandon's forty two to one, and then

546
00:23:58,440 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 3: you're in a great position no matter what.

547
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: So there's all these kinds of options there.

548
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,400
Speaker 3: I like any number of combinations of the Sun's Heat,

549
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 3: Suns Bucks, and Suns nets for the finals matchup over

550
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 3: at bet MGM let's star wrap it up for the

551
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast. Thanks for joining us. Download buckets right

552
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 3: now in your mobile device. Check it out you want

553
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 3: more NBA betting. Rahiem and I do Wednesday and Thursday

554
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 3: night workshops on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings live on YouTube

555
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 3: and you can catch those in your feeds. On Wednesdays

556
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 3: and Thursday mornings, they break down the entire slate using

557
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 3: Raheem's models. I weigh in with my extremely flied model

558
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 3: and we try and break down all the numbers and

559
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:35,120
Speaker 3: what works and what doesn't.

560
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: We got the Happy Hour with me and Brandon Anderson.

561
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: This week on NBA Championship tiers, lots of stuff to

562
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 3: check out as the NBA season kicks into high gear

563
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,679
Speaker 3: and we get ready for the postseason, which is just

564
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 3: as you were listening to this forty.

565
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 1: Eight days away. We're gonna be there in no time.

566
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining me, Brandon for Brandon Anderson. My name

567
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: is Matt Moore.

568
00:24:55,640 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 3: Thanks for joining us on the Action Network podcast Y