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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybacate podcast, available every morning on Apple,

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Speaker 2: Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, the twentieth of

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Speaker 2: June in London. I'm Caroline Hepke. Coming up today. The

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Speaker 2: White House says President Trump will decide within two weeks

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Speaker 2: whether to strike Iran. Satellite images examined by Bloomberg show

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Speaker 2: Iran is racing to get its oil out into the world.

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Speaker 2: Plus Britain's growing car theft crisis pitting manufacturers against organized

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Speaker 2: gangs as thieves use sophisticated technology to steal luxury vehicles

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Speaker 2: and ship them overseas. Let's start with a roundup of

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Speaker 2: our top stories. The White House says that President Trump

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Speaker 2: will make a decision on whether to strike Iran within

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Speaker 2: the next two weeks. Trump has publicly mused about the

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Speaker 2: US joining israel strikes on Iran in recent days, but

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Speaker 2: the latest statement suggests that the American president still wants

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Speaker 2: to secure a deal on Tehran's nuclear program. Here is

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Speaker 2: his Press secretary, Caroline Levitt.

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Speaker 3: I have a message directly from the President, and I

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Speaker 3: quote based on the fact that there's a substantial chance

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Speaker 3: of negotiations that may or may not take place with

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Speaker 3: Iran in the near future. I will make my decision

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Speaker 3: whether or not to go within the next two weeks.

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Speaker 2: Levitz declined to elaborate on Trump's timeline, including how he

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Speaker 2: views the chances of success in any further talks with Iran.

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Speaker 2: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Special Envoy

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Speaker 2: Steve Whitkov met the UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy at

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Speaker 2: the White House on Thursday. That comes after Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Keir Starmer called on President Trump to keep the door

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Speaker 2: open to resuming talks on Iran's nuclear program. Lammy will

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Speaker 2: now join the French and German foreign ministers for talks

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Speaker 2: with Iranian Foreign Minister abbas A Ragchi in Geneva later today.

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Speaker 2: Israeli warplanes have continued to strike military targets in Iran,

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Speaker 2: as a missile launched from Iran hit an Israeli hospital

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Speaker 2: on Thursday. Meanwhile, authorities in Tehran have imposed a nationwide

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Speaker 2: internet and telephone blackout, telling civilians it's necessary to prevent

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Speaker 2: Israeli cyber attacks. The blackout follows a series of highly

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Speaker 2: accurate Israeli strikes which prompted Iranian officials to urge citizens

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Speaker 2: to delete WhatsApp from their phones. The government claims that

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Speaker 2: despite the app's end to end encryption, it was being

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Speaker 2: used to transmit user information to Israel. In a statement

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Speaker 2: cited by the Associated Press, WhatsApp denied the claim, describing

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Speaker 2: them as quote false reports the Iranian state could use

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Speaker 2: as an excuse to block its services quote at a

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Speaker 2: time when people need them the most well. Cybersecurity experts

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Speaker 2: in Israel say that Iran is tapping into private security

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Speaker 2: cameras to gather real time in teens elegence. As Bloomberg's

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Speaker 2: un Parts reports, the revelation exposes a recurring problem with

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Speaker 2: these devices, one that has emerged in other global conflicts.

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Speaker 4: Earlier this week, a former Israeli cybersecurity official issued a

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Speaker 4: stark message on public radio, turn off your home surveillance

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Speaker 4: cameras or change the password immediately. The warning was later

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Speaker 4: backed by Israel's National cyber Director, which confirmed to Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: that Internet connected cameras are increasingly being targeted as part

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Speaker 4: of Iran's war planning. Similar tactics were employed by Russia

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Speaker 4: following its invasion of Ukraine, and while researchers have been

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Speaker 4: sounding the alarmed about vulnerabilities in security cameras for over

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Speaker 4: a decade. There is now increasing evidence that for countries

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Speaker 4: at war, these systems are being exploited. As a critical

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Speaker 4: week point in London, I'm you in parts of Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: So that was eun parts there well. Oil price is

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Speaker 2: slumped after President Donald Trump's comments, which eased fears about

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Speaker 2: an imminent attack from the US. Bloomberg analysis of Iran's

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Speaker 2: oil facilities suggests that the country is racing to put

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Speaker 2: its oil on global markets. Oil analysts tanker trackers dot

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Speaker 2: com estimates Iran exported a daily average of two point

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Speaker 2: three three million barrels per day in the five days

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Speaker 2: since the attacks began. That is a sudden forty percent jump.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's James Walcock has the story.

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Speaker 5: The oil storage tanks on carg Island have floating roofs,

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Speaker 5: so when you can see a shadow on satellite images

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Speaker 5: of the reservoirs at Iran's main export terminal, they're not

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Speaker 5: quite full. Over the past ten days, they've gone from

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Speaker 5: being partly full to being filled to the brim reay

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Speaker 5: toship out. That's despite exports going up in the same period.

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Speaker 5: That's one of the bits of data analysis oil traders

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Speaker 5: are using to conclude Iran is trying to rapidly get

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Speaker 5: oil out of the country as its conflict with Israel

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Speaker 5: ratchet's up in London.

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Speaker 6: James Wilcock Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Radio Well now turning our attention to the UK. The

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Speaker 2: Bank of England held interest rates steady, but took a

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Speaker 2: more dubvish view than expected and warned about the conflict

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East. Three out of the nine rate

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Speaker 2: setters on the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted for

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Speaker 2: a cut. Deputy Governor Claire Lombardelli says that the Bank

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Speaker 2: of England is keeping an eye on the oil price.

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Speaker 7: The events in the Middle East are tragic and they

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Speaker 7: are deeply worrying. As you'd expect, we are monitoring carefully

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Speaker 7: those events and the impact that those will have. We've

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Speaker 7: seen oil prices, for example, increase since the attacks.

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Speaker 2: Lombard Early added that she expected interest rates to be

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Speaker 2: on a gradually downward path. Traders slightly added tibets on

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Speaker 2: further UK interest rate cuts, pricing another two quarter point

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Speaker 2: reductions in twenty twenty five. The EU is making progress

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Speaker 2: in trade talks with the United States, according to one

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Speaker 2: of the region's top officials. That's as the administration's tariff

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Speaker 2: cutoff date approaches. Bluebig's teat at a Baio has more.

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Speaker 8: Which is nineteen days to go before President Trump's scheduled

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Speaker 8: tariff deadline. The European Union says it's making headway with negotiations.

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Speaker 8: The block is pursuing a compromise, but is ready to

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Speaker 8: take measures to protect itself should discussions fall through. That's

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Speaker 8: according to Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovski's who played down the

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Speaker 8: importance of quote so called reciprocal tariffs at a meeting

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Speaker 8: of Euro Area finance ministers this week. The EU is

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Speaker 8: facing the prospect of fifty percent levies on nearly all

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Speaker 8: US exports if an agreement isn't reached in time. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 8: central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway cut rates this week,

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Speaker 8: highlighting a shift in policy as officials brace for tariff fallout.

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Speaker 8: In London, Tiwa at a Bio Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Radio Now, the UK has recorded its hottest day of

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Speaker 2: the year so far, with temperatures hitting highs of thirty

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Speaker 2: two degrees Amber heat alerts are still in place across

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Speaker 2: the whole country till Monday morning. Highs of thirty three

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Speaker 2: degrees are expected on Saturday, with forecasters predicting that central

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Speaker 2: and eastern England will be the worst affected. Aidan mcgiven

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Speaker 2: from the Met Office set out his expectations for the

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Speaker 2: next few days.

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Speaker 1: Thirty one celsius by Friday, and then into the weekend

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Speaker 1: thirty two celsius.

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Speaker 6: Not just talking about London and the southeast.

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Speaker 1: It'll be widely mid to high twenties across the whole

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Speaker 1: of the UK by Saturday.

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Speaker 2: Aidan McGivern speaking there, The NHS is also bracing for

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Speaker 2: increased pressure during the heat wave period. So those are

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Speaker 2: our top stories for you this morning. In terms of

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Speaker 2: the markets, then, as President Trump seems to be taking

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Speaker 2: a beat on whether to involve the US in Iran,

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Speaker 2: a WTI CREWEDE futures are up, but brain Crew slumping

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Speaker 2: two point one percent this morning. In terms of the

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Speaker 2: S and P five hundred returning after the Juneteenth holiday yesterday,

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Speaker 2: STOP futures are down two tents. Eurostocks fifty futures there

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Speaker 2: are up seven tenths of one percent. This after we

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Speaker 2: did see European stocks fall for a third session yesterday

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Speaker 2: in a row. The dollar At the moment Bloomberg Dollar

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Speaker 2: Spot indexes week are two tens of one percent. The

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Speaker 2: Asian equity session has seen a rebound for the cost

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Speaker 2: b for the hang saying for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

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Speaker 2: Of course, uncertain times tend to push investors to be

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Speaker 2: kind of warrier of stretched valuations like the ones that

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Speaker 2: we've seen in the US. So actually the MSCI Asia

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Speaker 2: Pacific Index has been one of the winners so far

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Speaker 2: this year. That's a look at where we are in

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Speaker 2: the markets.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 2: In a moment, we'll bring you the latest on events

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East, plus the UK car theft crisis

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Speaker 2: that is pitting manufacturers against organized crime. But there is

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Speaker 2: another story that I was really interested in reading this

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Speaker 2: morning and I wanted to share it with you. So

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Speaker 2: this is Pame Olsen, who's been writing about the rush

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Speaker 2: to create AI toys.

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Speaker 6: Why is this so interesting?

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Speaker 2: Mattel announced this week that it was preparing to bring

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Speaker 2: the magic of AI to its toys through a partnership

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Speaker 2: with open Ai. Obviously, the makers of chat GPT Olson

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Speaker 2: is concerned about what these toys will do to kids'

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Speaker 2: social skills, and she comes armed with some very interesting

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Speaker 2: evidence from Grock, which is a cuddly toy made by

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Speaker 2: Curio Interactive, which is a startup in San Francisco, which

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Speaker 2: she gave to her seven year old daughter. They record

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Speaker 2: almost all the verbal interactions between the child and the toy,

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Speaker 2: and pame Olsen points out the deference the constant validation

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Speaker 2: are absolutely saccering, and she also cites character AI, which

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Speaker 2: is a popular chatbot app too to make the point

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Speaker 2: about dependency of young people, whether these toys, which are

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Speaker 2: kind of programmed for positivity, are going to remove the

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Speaker 2: rough and tumble of real human relations. I just it

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Speaker 2: really got me thinking about this kind of era and

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Speaker 2: maybe of sicker fancy, of the dangers really present dangers

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Speaker 2: of AI and what they do to social interactions. As

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Speaker 2: of course, we're also learning that Australia is getting closer

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Speaker 2: to that social media ban for under sixteens, hefty fines

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Speaker 2: for firms that breach that. They've been doing research and

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Speaker 2: analysis into that in Australia. But that was one of

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Speaker 2: the stories that I was reading about this morning got

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Speaker 2: me thinking about our wider social interactions and what we

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Speaker 2: think of those. I'll put a link to Parmei Olsen's

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Speaker 2: story in our show notes today. Well, it does appear

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Speaker 2: that President Donald Trump is going to decide whether the

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Speaker 2: US will strike Iran within two weeks, even as Israel

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Speaker 2: and Iran are engaged in missile strikes in cyber warfare,

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Speaker 2: and Iran has imposed this blackout on internet and phone lines.

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Speaker 2: Joining me this morning is Paul Wallace, who manages bloom

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Speaker 2: Begg's Middle East and Africa coverage, to discuss Paul, thank

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Speaker 2: you so much for being with me today. President Trump

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Speaker 2: has framed the decision to bomb Iran as his and

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Speaker 2: his alone. He seems now to have rushed right to

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Speaker 2: the brink and suddenly hesitated.

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Speaker 9: Now why Hi, Caln. It does seem like he is

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Speaker 9: hesitated now. It's unclear. Essentially, the message from the White

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Speaker 9: House is that he is allowing more time for diplomacy,

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Speaker 9: essentially allowing more time for Iran to back off somehow,

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Speaker 9: It's unclear what.

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Speaker 6: He actually wants from Iran.

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Speaker 9: The most obvious thing it would be Iran saying it

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Speaker 9: will no longer enrich any uranium on its own territory.

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Speaker 6: This has been a big thing.

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Speaker 9: This was a key sticking point in the nuclear talks

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Speaker 9: between the US and Iran in the previous two months.

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Speaker 9: Iran insists it must be allowed to enrich some uranium

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Speaker 9: for civilian purposes like medical use and fueling nuclear power plants.

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Speaker 9: Trump and Israel and many many people in Washington do

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Speaker 9: not want any enrichment and all.

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Speaker 6: So that could be something.

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Speaker 9: But then Trump this week is also called for Iran's surrender.

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Speaker 9: I mean, maybe the enrichment issue would be enough to

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Speaker 9: fascifire as surrender in his point of view, but either way,

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Speaker 9: he does seem to want to wait a little bit

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Speaker 9: longer for diplomacy to happen. Iran's foreign minister is meeting

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Speaker 9: his counterparts from France, the UK, and Germany in Geneva today.

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Speaker 9: It's unclear no one from our reporting from European sources,

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Speaker 9: it doesn't sound like they're overly confident that this meeting

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Speaker 9: can result in something that pulls America back from military

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Speaker 9: action totally. But nonetheless it will be an important meeting

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Speaker 9: and perhaps the type of thing that will make Trump

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Speaker 9: decide against military action if Iran comes back with something

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Speaker 9: he's satisfied with.

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Speaker 2: But of course there are civilian casualties mounting, so how

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Speaker 2: strong does the Iranian regime look right now? How long

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Speaker 2: does Israel keep up its campaign exactly?

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Speaker 9: There are civilian casualties mounting. It's hard to tell how

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Speaker 9: many in Iran at this stage. The official tally stands

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Speaker 9: at two hundred and twenty four two hundred and twenty

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Speaker 9: four deaths. Muran says those are mostly civilians, but that

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Speaker 9: total hasn't been up dated for about three days now,

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Speaker 9: so it's probably substantially higher.

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Speaker 6: In Israel, twenty four people have been killed.

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Speaker 9: That toll hasn't actually risen again for about three days,

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Speaker 9: but that's more more of a sign that Iran's missile

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Speaker 9: attacks on Israel, while still very dangerous, are waning a bit.

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Speaker 9: But in terms of the Iranian government's weakness militarily, it

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Speaker 9: looks very weak right now. It's lost control of its airspace,

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Speaker 9: certainly over most of western Iran and the capital Tehran,

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Speaker 9: and its key strategic sites like nuclear facilities. So in

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Speaker 9: that case, it really does look to have taken a

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Speaker 9: heavy beating from Israel in the past week. They aren't

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Speaker 9: really signs of let's call it mass panic. Well, there

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Speaker 9: are signs of panic in Tran and people trying to

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Speaker 9: leave and people trying to leave big cities. But there

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Speaker 9: aren't signs of you know, mass unrestigate the government, no

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Speaker 9: sort of huge protests or anything like that so far

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Speaker 9: from from what we can tell. So in that sense,

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Speaker 9: you know, that's that's a plus from the Uranian government.

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Speaker 9: But certainly a lot of people are already saying, whatever happens now,

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Speaker 9: whether the US goes in with strikes or it doesn't,

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Speaker 9: you know, things have changed for the Uranian government and

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Speaker 9: things can't get back to normal one way or another.

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Speaker 9: It's going to have to change its you know, governing

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Speaker 9: systems somewhat, because it does look incredibly weak right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, indeed, and we've been reporting on itvon rapidly increasing

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Speaker 2: clandestine oil exports too. A word on the worries, the

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Speaker 2: risks to oil shipments, to the oil price breakthrough futures

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Speaker 2: are about ten percent higher than they were a week ago.

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Speaker 6: That is significant, it really is.

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Speaker 9: And since Hamas's attack on Israel on October the seventh,

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Speaker 9: twenty twenty three, the thing that markets seem to be

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Speaker 9: most concerned about is that conflict spreading to a direct

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Speaker 9: war between Israel and Iran.

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Speaker 6: And we came closer to it last year.

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Speaker 9: In April and then in October, the exchange direct and

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Speaker 9: missile fa on one another, but on both occasions it

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Speaker 9: was sort of one and done. This is now a war.

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Speaker 9: As you said, it's gone on for a week. It

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Speaker 9: looks like it's going to go on longer. Iran if

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Speaker 9: it chooses to, if it chooses to lash out, has

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Speaker 9: the ability to cause turmoil in world oil and gas markets.

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Speaker 9: It can attack oil and gas tankers going through the

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Speaker 9: Strait of Hormuz. It can attack oil and gas facilities

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Speaker 9: and places like Saudi Arabia and the UEE, which it

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Speaker 9: has done in the recent past via the WHU. Theis

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Speaker 9: the proxy militant group that it backs in the Yemen.

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Speaker 9: So that's what's really causing oil traders to fret.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Paul, thank you so much for being with me

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Speaker 2: this morning and taking us through what is happening in

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Speaker 2: the Middle East. Pool Wallace, who managers Bloomberg's Middle East

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Speaker 2: and Africa coverage, thank you so much. Now I want

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Speaker 2: to turn our attention to the UK. Britain has a

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Speaker 2: growing problem and police are struggling to deal with it.

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Speaker 2: Car theft in the UK hit a fifteen year high,

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Speaker 2: with almost one hundred and thirty thousand vehicles stolen in

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Speaker 2: the year ending March twenty twenty four. It's something that

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's UK Business editor Jamie Nimmo has been writing about.

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Speaker 2: Good Morning, Jamie, how are all these vehicles actually being stolen?

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Speaker 2: I mean, forgive me, I thought the tech was amazing

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Speaker 2: and this wasn't meant to happen.

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Speaker 6: Was his? Yeah, you're right.

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Speaker 10: I mean we think of movies and TVs and picking

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Speaker 10: locks and stuff.

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Speaker 6: It doesn't happen that way.

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Speaker 10: But now it's modern technology like signal jammers where the

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Speaker 10: fobs inside the home and they sort of cut the

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Speaker 10: signal off effectively and it drives away without the alarm

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Speaker 10: going off. There's all sorts of tech like that. It

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Speaker 10: costs thousands of pounds. That's not cheap to get. You

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Speaker 10: have to find that in the dark web or or

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Speaker 10: somewhere else. So yeah, it's that sort of tech that

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Speaker 10: means they can break in now.

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Speaker 2: And so it does sound like the vehicles being stolen.

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Speaker 2: It's on something of an industrial scale. Do we think

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Speaker 2: is stealing all of these vehicles and where they're going.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, it's not joy riders, that's for sure, because it

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Speaker 10: costs so much to actually steal them in the first place.

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Speaker 10: These are organized gangs and the carmakers and police are

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Speaker 10: making more and more noise about this, the fact that

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Speaker 10: more needs to be done because you know, this could

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Speaker 10: be funding terrorism. We don't really know because it's such

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Speaker 10: a such a big thing. Now these are going abroad

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Speaker 10: out and ship and containers, earning them millions and millions

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Speaker 10: and pounds and costing insurers something like six hundred and

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Speaker 10: forty million pounds last year.

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Speaker 6: So it's a big problem.

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Speaker 2: And it's widely recognized also that police don't really have

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Speaker 2: a grip on these thefts. I mean, your story follows

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Speaker 2: an officer who did manage to get some stolen vehicles.

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Speaker 2: What else is being done to address this?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, so he's in a unit that's actually funded by

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Speaker 10: industry because the Home Office pulled funding during austerity because

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Speaker 10: they classed it as a lower priority crime than others

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Speaker 10: like burglary, where the sort of person is in actual

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Speaker 10: you know, immediate harm.

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Speaker 6: But that's part of the issue.

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Speaker 10: They recently acknowledged the problem the government and set up

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Speaker 10: you partnership. But it's basically just one guy sort of

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Speaker 10: helping to coordinate the police.

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Speaker 6: The carmakers and others.

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Speaker 10: That's funded by a Jaguar Androver and Toyota, the Home

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Speaker 10: Office as well and police. But that's only one element

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Speaker 10: and they admit that more needs to be done and

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Speaker 10: sort of join effort. One thing the government has done

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Speaker 10: is they said they are going to outlaw signal jammers,

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Speaker 10: so you'll get a five year prison sentence just for

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Speaker 10: possessing one, because there's no other reason for having one,

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Speaker 10: they say, So that will come into effects in.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it has got a lot of attention in

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Speaker 2: the UK, hasn't it, this issue, and it goes to

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Speaker 2: something a bit wider I think as well. We've covered

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Speaker 2: on this program, you know, mobile phone thefts, shoplifting, even

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Speaker 2: the kind of low levels of convictions for really serious

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Speaker 2: things like ray There is a political danger, isn't there

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Speaker 2: in the public kind of seeing this as a crime

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Speaker 2: that goes unpunished and that is sort of industrial.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, you're right, it goes you know, when they think

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Speaker 10: of other things like mobile phone theft, they'll probably know

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Speaker 10: someone who's had their phone stolen, they'll see on social

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Speaker 10: media and read stories about it, and yeah, ultimately they'll

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Speaker 10: look at the government and go, what are you doing

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Speaker 10: about it. I mean the other issue is that it's

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Speaker 10: you know, people spend a lot of money on their cars,

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Speaker 10: so they will look at the car makers too.

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Speaker 6: And go, what are you doing about it?

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Speaker 10: You mentioned the amount that's been put into new tech.

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Speaker 10: They are constantly putting millions and millions of pounds into

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Speaker 10: upgrading that technology. The issue is, so are the criminals,

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Speaker 10: because these are organized gangs that have the money to

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Speaker 10: actually get ahead. So it's a game of cat and mouths.

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Speaker 10: As soon as they solve one problem, there's another one

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Speaker 10: to be fixed, so it's a constant battle for them

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Speaker 10: as well. But yeah, they're getting the blame just as

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Speaker 10: much if anything, Jaguar Androver, especially for range rovers being stolen.

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Speaker 10: I think people have read those stories about insurance premiums

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Speaker 10: going up and everything, so it's not a victimless crime

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Speaker 10: as well. Insurance premiums are going up across the board

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Speaker 10: for everyone because of this.

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