WEBVTT - MLB NL Win Totals (Ep. 77) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:03.680 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:10.480 --> 0:00:14.240 He what's up, everybody? It's me he Joe Bisavia, and 0:00:14.400 --> 0:00:18.680 welcome to Fantasy Pros, where fantasy sports lives and where 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.320 wagering lives too, because today we've got a betting pro 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.799 show for you for MLB. That's right, it's not just 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:28.280 NFL anymore. No, no big changes here at Fantasy Pros. 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:30.680 It's gonna be me, it's gonna be Dan Harris, and 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:33.400 it's gonna be you. And we're gonna go through win 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:36.440 totals in Major League Baseball for the National League teams. Today. 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:39.040 We're gonna talk about what those win totals are, if 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:41.240 we like the overs, the unders, which ones we want 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:43.879 to stay away from, and where there might be some value. 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:47.000 And there's always value in the Fantasy Pros tools and 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.240 there's no bigger tool. Excuse me, there's no better person 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:53.520 to discuss the tools. I'm sorry, Dan, that came out weird, 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:56.640 Dan Harris, how are you? My friend? Tell us all 0:00:56.640 --> 0:00:59.440 about what the exciting things that are happening ever a 0:00:59.480 --> 0:01:02.320 fantasy especially on the betting side at Betting Pros. 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:07.640 What a slip of the tongue show. Oops, Hi everybody. Okay, So, 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:10.640 as you know, if you have subscribed to this show, 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:15.280 we have been basically exclusively a betting pro show based 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:17.360 on the NFL. That's all we've done. We've done it 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:20.360 during the NFL season. We're going to continue to do that. 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:23.319 Of course, during the NFL season, we'll do two shows 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.080 a week, go back to the old school way of 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.399 doing it, bringing on people from around the industry. But 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:30.120 now we're expanding. We've got Joe pi Zapia here if 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:32.240 you are if you listen to our fantasy shows, you 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:34.040 are familiar with him. Now. He's been our host for 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:35.720 a couple of weeks. He's also going to be the 0:01:35.720 --> 0:01:37.720 host of the Betting Pro Show. It's going to be 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:40.840 a weekly show from here on out. We are going 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:43.720 to be touching for the next few weeks on MLB 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:46.000 because that's where we are. When we get to the NFL, 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:47.920 we will be talking about the NFL, but we're gonna 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:49.880 have guests on from around the industry doing a weekly 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:52.800 show talking about whatever the big event is going on 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:56.360 that week or you know. Obviously the different sports with NBA, NHL, 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:58.000 we're already into the season, so we can't do the 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:01.240 preseason episodes, of course, but going forward, this is a 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:04.120 weekly show that we will be doing beyond the NFL. 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:06.520 It was the Betting Pros NFL podcast. It is now 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:10.440 the Betting Pros Podcast, So make sure you subscribe, you 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:12.480 tune in every week. We're going to be here for you. 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:14.200 For now, for the next couple of weeks, it's going 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.880 to be baseball, which Joey p and I love. We 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:19.200 love to talk some baseball, so I'm ready for the 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:21.000 NL win totals. Baby, let's do it. 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:23.519 And to be fair, I am the second biggest tool 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:26.239 behind Dan. Okay, these are the tools that you need 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:29.040 right here. So all joking aside, this is something we're 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:31.280 very passionate about. We love it. I talk a ton 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.359 of this stuff over on Sports Careered on Television two 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:35.400 for the last few years, and I'm very excited to 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:38.359 be talking it here on Fantasy Pros. And let's start 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:40.120 with the National League East, and let's start with the 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:43.120 win total of the Atlanta Braves. Now, it's funny because 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:45.839 Baseball Perspectus has them somewhere on eighty two wins, which 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:49.359 I thought was very, very strange. But the win total 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:52.000 around the aggregate value and once again trying to take 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:54.280 all these different sites like we do here on Fantasy Pros, 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:56.680 on the betting side on Betting Pros and give you 0:02:56.800 --> 0:02:59.080 kind of what the general landscape is. Yeah, it's going 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:01.080 to be a half different here and there, but for 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:03.320 the most part, you're looking at ninety one and a half, 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:05.600 so you're looking at the Atlanta Braves and in terms 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:07.480 of rotation, they did make a big addition there with 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:10.200 Charlie Morton, and I think that's a bigger impact than 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.720 other people do. He's a veteran stability, a guy who 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:16.359 you can count on for innings. That's huge right now 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:18.240 coming off of a season where you really don't know, 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.960 especially with the injuries they've had to Soroka and some 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:23.839 of those young pitchers. Ian Anderson was a revelation last year, 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.359 but there's questions about how much he can handle in 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:29.000 terms of workload this year. It's a great lineup Dan, 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:31.600 but it's a little top heavy. I think I'd be 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:33.600 surprised if you got the same kind of production you 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:36.720 got out of Darnault and out of some of the 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:39.320 other players in the bottom part, whether it's the Swanson's 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:42.320 or Darnaul's or maybe even Marcella Zuna to a certain extent, 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:44.640 because we saw the best of Azooa last year, but 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:46.920 we've seen him be a streaky player in the past. 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:48.920 So ninety one and a half is that number? How 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:50.360 do you feel about this number when it comes to 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:50.960 the braves. 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:54.120 It's a big number, it really is. And again we 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:56.280 you know, Joe, you look at the projection systems that 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:58.640 are around you mentioned it and Pacoda like they ow they've 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:01.960 faded the braves right like the last everybody has recently 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:05.080 and they just constantly go over. But ninety one is 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:07.080 a big number, ninety one and a half, and I 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:09.520 think that's something that kind of we throw around, like 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:12.640 ninety ninety one. It's tough. It is very tough in 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.080 Major League Baseball to get to even ninety wins. By 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:18.039 the way, for the for the wins, as Joe mentioned, 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.600 we're going to be using the consensus wins. So at 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:22.920 Betting Pros, what we do is we aggregate all the 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:25.480 available sports book Now I'm in New Hampshire, so the 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:28.080 only numbers that I can get are at Draft Kings. 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:29.720 But if you look at Bettingpros dot Com, and I 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:32.680 think it's Joe's at bettingpros dot com slash MLB wins right. 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:34.720 Is that the link for the link. If you want 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:37.039 to see the win totals for everything, you can see 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:39.200 it where it is in every book Now. Ninety one 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:42.960 and a half is everywhere, like there's no differentiation at 0:04:43.000 --> 0:04:45.400 it at all. So the consensus line is ninety one 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:47.200 and a half. That's what I have at a DraftKings too. 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:50.080 If I'm going one where, I don't love this bet 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:53.320 either way. If I lean one way, it would be 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:56.160 towards the over for a couple of reasons. I do 0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:59.719 like the lineup. I mean Acunya obviously leading off is fantastic. 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:02.080 I don't know exactly how it's gonna bear out Freeman 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:05.520 off the MVP. I think Ozuna maybe not quite as 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:07.720 good as he was last year. Darn I was getting 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:09.800 up there, but he is kind of legitimate. I love 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:13.640 Ozzie Alby's Dansby Swanson is kind of real now, like 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:15.680 I've been looking into him for on the fantasy side, 0:05:15.800 --> 0:05:18.000 He's he's legit. I like what I've seen from him. 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:20.920 I like Austin Riley, and I like the rotation. Joe. 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.880 I really do like Charlie Morton, like he's one of 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:26.039 one of my guys. Ian Anderson was a guy who 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:27.599 at the beginning of the Fantasy season, I was like, 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:28.599 I'm not in on this guy. 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:31.440 Now I'm totally in I too, because you and I, 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:33.840 You and I both got to come to the Ian 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:35.920 Anderson world right now in the last few weeks, and 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:37.840 I've had that same kind of revelation. Hyeah, it's like, 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:39.480 you know what where he's going. It just makes a 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:42.200 lot of sense. But yeah, I personally feel like it's 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:44.880 kind of a It's again. These numbers are always right on. 0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:46.920 That's the whole point. I would either stay away from 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.240 this one because it feels just about right. I don't 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:51.360 know if they're gonna bbliterate this number. And I'm a 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:54.160 little concerned because it is high. It's a very competitive division. 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:55.920 As we're gonna get you, this is the most competitive 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:58.520 division in the National League. Yes, that's what scares me 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:01.559 about going too high old for this number. If anything, 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:03.400 I would probably stay away. But if I had a lean, 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:06.440 the lean would certainly be on the over by a 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:09.479 hair because I do think Atlanta is that team where 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:11.920 they're used to success. They're used to being on top. 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:15.120 They are built I think for the long haul, but 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:17.240 I also just I do have some questions about some 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:19.760 of the guys. I love Max Reid, I love Morton, 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:22.200 I love Anderson. The rest of that rotation was still 0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:22.880 figuring out the ball. 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:26.120 I like Smiley. I think if again I mentioned Smiley before, 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:28.839 I think if Smiley can stay healthy, which is always 0:06:28.839 --> 0:06:30.760 a big if. And again, Soroka is probably gonna miss 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.000 what April coming back from the Achilles' hair. But the 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:37.039 rotation is pretty good. The bullpend though, Joe not terrible. 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:40.960 I mean, Will Smith's very solid, Martin is good. Mintor 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:43.839 bounced back. It just it is the tough division. That's 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:45.640 the thing about it is when you're looking at the 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:48.200 wind totals for any division, That's why the central is 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:51.240 such a fascinating place to look at, because the wind 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:54.200 totals are all low because they're gonna, you know, somebody 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:55.880 who's got to go over basically in that one. So 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:58.080 I think for this, I agree with you. Ninety one 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:00.640 and a half is a sharp number. I don't love 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:02.800 either way, but I kind of would lean over, And 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:04.520 it might be because I'm fading some of the other 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:05.800 teams in the division. 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:08.239 That might be the Marlins are at seventy and a half, 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:10.880 which I gotta tell you, it seemed very low to 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:13.160 me right off the bat. This is where I think 0:07:13.160 --> 0:07:15.239 the first spot where I'm actually a little bit excited 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:17.120 about a number, because I think that pitching is much 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:19.280 better than people realize. I just did a little write 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:22.160 up on Fantasy Pros about Elie's or Hernandez. I just 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:24.880 got to interview Craig Mish this week, who covers the Marlins, 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:26.960 and I asked him, I said, so tell me who 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:28.760 is the guy that's getting all the balls out of 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:30.400 camp now with the Marlins, because you know it's always 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:32.720 the buzz guy. And he said, without a doubt, it's Hernandez. 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:35.280 And you add him in with Lopez and Sixto Sanchez. 0:07:35.320 --> 0:07:36.680 All of a sudden, this pitching is a lot better 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:38.760 than people realize. If you get some bounce back from 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:41.120 Corey Dickerson, you get some guys like Jazz chishm to 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:43.120 kind of take a step up, all of a sudden, 0:07:43.160 --> 0:07:45.320 the Marlins, you know, they were a playoff team last year. 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:47.280 I know it was a short season. I just think 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:49.280 seventy and a half is very low. I think they're 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:51.080 closer to a five hundred team than they are to 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:53.600 a seventy win team. So to me, this is actually 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:56.520 a comfortable over I feel much more comfortable with this 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:58.600 number than I do with the Braves number. So you 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:00.600 walk me through your thoughts about them, Carlins. Do you 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:03.200 think this is too low? Or am I overrating this 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:04.600 Marlins pitching staff a little? 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:07.080 I think a little both. Actually I don't. I don't 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:08.920 think you're overrating the staff. I think the staff is 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:11.880 really good. Sandy al Contra also very very good there, 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:14.640 So I think it's a it's a solid staff. That 0:08:14.840 --> 0:08:17.760 is what I have the least question marked about. With 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:22.200 the Marlins. The lineup is just kind of I don't know, 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:22.920 it's not. 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:25.440 That's what they are. They don't have that guy. They 0:08:25.440 --> 0:08:29.560 don't have that dude. There's there's no you know, Juan 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:30.520 Soto in that kind of. 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:32.920 I've got Starling Marte, who I like but is kind 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:35.880 of an aging speedster at this point, right not not 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:40.280 somebody's So the lineup isn't great. The bullpen, they don't have, 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:42.520 like the strike up I mean, Y mean, Garcia maybe 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:44.960 is the strike up guy, but Anthony bass is fine, 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:48.319 Dylan Floro, It's fine, it's not great. With that said, 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:50.760 I agree with you. I don't think this is a 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:54.000 smash of the over, but I am leaning over on 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:56.840 it for sure. And again, the consensus line is seventy 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:59.960 and a half, and it's to go under. You're getting 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.280 plus money for the consentives line. It's plus one oh 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:04.920 five over it's minus one thirty four. And part of that, 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:06.920 I think is because of the fact that there are 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:08.840 a lot of books out there that are at seventy one. 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:11.360 So the consensus line is seventy and a half, but 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:13.200 there's a lot of books out there if you look 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:15.280 at seventy one and a half, so it's right on 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.360 the border in between. If you can get seventy and 0:09:17.360 --> 0:09:19.360 a half. I agree with you, Joe. I think I 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:21.600 would go over here. I think they're again being a 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:24.640 little undervalued, but I don't really It's hard for me 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:27.040 to see them getting to five hundred unless that staff 0:09:27.240 --> 0:09:29.760 stays fully healthy all year and just rocks the house, 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:31.559 because that is the strength of the team. 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:34.040 All right. Moving on to the Philadelphia Phillies. Eighty and 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:36.200 a half is this number. I'm gonna save our mets 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:38.960 for last, because I know we have so many feelings. 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:41.320 I know originally we're going to do that, but let's 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:43.120 do the Phillies next. Eighty and a half is the 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.280 number here, and this feels dead on to me. I 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:48.520 think this is an absolute five hundred team. I understand 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:51.040 they made some acquisitions in the offseason to improve the bullpen. 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:55.320 It's improved. I still don't think it's great as era 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:58.520 of the bullpen was over eight last year. That is stunning. 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:01.200 I mean stunning, like you just can't even wrap your 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:03.160 mind around it. And I get it, it's only sixty 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:07.560 game season. It's still atrocious even regardless, So the Phillies 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:09.080 are a bit of an enigma for me. I think 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:11.800 they are a five hundred team. They have top of 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.040 the you know tier guys, the Bryce Harpers of the world, 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:16.000 and they have those top two pitchers in the front 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:17.920 and then after that, it's a lot of questions that 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:20.400 back ends a bullpens question. Still, I still think it's 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:22.200 going to cost some games this year. It's enough for 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:24.040 me to run away from this number. I don't love 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:26.079 this Phillies number. I think they're an eighty one win 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:27.760 team and that's basically where they're sitting. 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:30.480 I like the under a little bit more because I'm 0:10:30.520 --> 0:10:32.720 fading them this year. I really am. And by the way, 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:34.560 you can get eighty one and a half at Fandle. 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:36.920 That's the one book that I'm seeing out there on Fandle. 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:38.520 At the eighty one and a half. That's a more 0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:39.920 comfortable under, I think for me. 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:42.520 A little more comfortable. It's funny you're like, well, one win, 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:43.360 one win is. 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:47.000 One enormous Well, one win is a big differ. It 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:47.640 really is. 0:10:48.000 --> 0:10:49.439 It really is. But even at eighty and a half, 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:51.319 which the consensus lign is, which is where I could 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:53.480 get it at DraftKings and where it's basically sitting, I 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:55.640 still lean the under the bullpen. I mean they tried, right, 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:58.880 They added some some heat back there with Archie Bradley 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:01.559 and Jose Alvarada, and they signed Kinsler, you know, to 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:02.960 a minor league deal, but I'm sure it'll be in 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:06.080 the Major so it's better. But you know, I'm not 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:09.240 totally loving it. It is the staff, I mean, Nola's great, 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:14.199 Zach Wheeler is great, Ethlyn's Okay, Velasquez and more that's 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:16.480 not gonna cut it. And the lineup, I mean real 0:11:16.559 --> 0:11:19.559 Mutto already fractured his thumb. I doubt he'll be ready 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:20.960 exactly on opening day, and that. 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:23.800 Hurts the pitching staff too. It does as we need 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:25.680 we need to realize. I mean, not that he's not 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:27.559 familiar with those guys, but yeah, you just want to 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:29.280 be in a rhythm with everybody going into the season, 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:31.880 and when you're working from behind, that could mean some 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:34.040 struggles in April, and that's enough to bring them down 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:34.520 a little bit. 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:39.000 And the lineup is just like whatever, Like real, Muto's great, 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:41.760 Harper is fantastic, but you know, McCutcheon is like a 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:43.960 thousand years old, and I love them, but you know, 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:46.400 and you know, Hoskins one of my favorite players. Again, 0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:49.080 but none of these guys, Gregorious boem Segura, like it's 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:51.599 just whatever. In this division where they're gonna have to 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:53.840 play the Braves, they're gonna have to play the Mets. 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.560 The Marlins aren't going to be as terrible, the Nationals 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:58.520 aren't going to be terrible. This just strikes me as 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.920 kind of the under that I lean towards the most 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:03.840 here with the Phillies at eighty and a half, especially 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:04.559 at eighty one and. 0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:06.920 A half, all right. Let's move on to the Washington Nationals, 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:08.679 which is a place where you can I think, make 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:11.200 some money here if you have real feelings about this 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:14.400 pitching staff being right. Because if this pitching staff is right, 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:17.040 I know they're eighty four and a half is basically 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:19.240 the number somewhere around there is which you're getting most places. 0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:21.920 There's one spot where you're getting eighty three and a half, 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:24.480 which I would be looking for that one and to 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.240 take the over. And that's a Fox bet. And I 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.040 gotta tell you, like, I think that you can make 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:30.920 some money on the Nationals this year. You do have 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:33.520 won Soda, you still have Victor Robless, you still have 0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:35.880 Trey Turner. There's a lot of good young players obviously 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:38.040 on that team. Plus you brought in Josh Bell, you 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.679 brought in schwar where both guys look really good playing 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:42.880 for contracts right now in the spring. They've looked very 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:45.200 good so far in the very early going. You just 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:47.640 want to see them show up to camp in good shape, ready, focus. 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.720 That's what you're looking for. And for me, Dan, I 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:52.679 think this is one where if the pitching is right, 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.920 They've got Brad Hand now closing out games. That is 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.559 a good solid investment. Especially if you do think a 0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:00.839 little less of the Phillies, then maybe you should think 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:01.760 a little bit more than Ats. 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.680 This is a really tough one for me because I 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:07.560 could see them smashing the over on this. If everything 0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:10.320 breaks right, you have basically all three, the Big three. 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:12.719 They all have to bounce back right. Sureser has kind 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.280 of been battling injury a little bit and saw some 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:17.760 sort of real downturn in his numbers last year. Corbin 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.800 lost two miles per hour on his velocity. Strasbourg barely 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:24.400 pitched and had the surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. I'm 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:26.800 getting more optimistic on each one of them as I 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:29.120 dig into them even more. The back end of their 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.440 rotation is kind of gross. I mean, John Lester, John 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:31.959 Lester's tear. 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:34.800 Nobody's trying to tell me about John Lester. I do 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:36.640 not want to hear that. No, no, no, But. 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.040 I do agree that hand is a huge addition to 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.800 that bullpen. And you've got Rainy, You've got Harris, you've 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:44.520 got Hudson, and the lineup is Yeah, that's the thing. 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:47.160 If Schwarber kind of bounces back, and you know, we're 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:50.240 in best shape of you know, his life season right now. 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:51.360 He does look good. 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:52.440 It does look very good. 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.280 Bell. I'm willing to kind of buy the whole My 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:59.439 season got my swing got really long last year and 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.680 I kind of lost, and I let my father side 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:03.720 to sort of get me some bad habits. I like 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:05.520 him as a hitter, and when you add that with 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:08.200 Soto and Turner, I think it has the potential to 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:10.840 go over. But I'm not comfortable with I'm like, right there, 0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:12.840 I'm like at eighty four like that. That's basically what 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:14.680 I think is the right number. So this is kind 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.120 of a stay away for me right now. But I 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:19.400 see the potential for it to go way over if 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:22.040 in the spring everybody looks kind of as we think. 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:24.080 They could look. I think that's the thing. If you're 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.280 going into that you're healthy with those three pictures and 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:28.600 Corvin especially looks good, I think you might want to 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:31.760 dabble in this one. Otherwise you could see the opposite, 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.200 because we've seen this team unravel too when those pictures 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:36.040 have injuries and they don't have enough in the system 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:38.120 and the pitching to make up for that. Now it's 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:41.040 time for our New York Mets. Dan ninety one wins. 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:44.720 Oh model, As my grandmother would say, that is a 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:47.280 lot of wins for the New York Mets. Now here's 0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:51.520 the thing. Stroman's back, you got Carrasco, You've got grom 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.520 At some point, you hope to get Cinderguard. I'm not 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:56.960 as concerned as everybody else about Lugo and the elbow. 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.320 I mean, that's a clean up surgery that should be fine. 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:01.040 Go back and look at Cole Hamil's eery had his 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:02.880 clean up. He came back at what his best seasons. 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:05.640 So I'm looking at this Mets team. The addition of 0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:09.360 Lindora Carrasco, Trevor May, They've done some really good things. 0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:12.240 But most importantly it's the depth. It's the depth of 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.080 adding versatility and athleticism, which is something the Mets have 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:17.840 lacked both of for quite some time. Whether it be 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.880 a Jonathan vr At, Kevin Palar, anybody else that rhymes 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:25.920 with Allar, it could be Malex Smith. All these guys athletic, versatile, 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:28.520 and I think give them a different dynamic off the 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:30.840 bench that we're used to seeing. This is a faster team, 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:33.680 this is a deeper team, and I think the lineup 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:36.440 is very good this year, especially with Nimo, Dominic Smith 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:40.240 surrounding Confordo and Alonso. I know I'm painting a Rosie picture, 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:42.680 which is something that I never do as a Mets fan. 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:45.320 Usually it's the opposite, right, But I actually think this 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:47.480 is a team that's going to win ninety something games. 0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:49.560 The question is, Dandy, you feel good about the ninety one. 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:55.080 I mean, it's hard as a Mets fan. 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:59.960 I'm trying my best to be to look at this realistically, 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.400 and they are the deepest team in this division. Yes, 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:05.680 they are the deepest, period and I think that wins 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:07.400 out more often than not in the one sixty two. 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:11.160 Nowadays Pakoda has them and ninety four wins. I mean 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:14.120 ninety four. And when I first looked at this and 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.400 I was talking about it with my boss, who was like, 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:18.760 I'm smashing the under. He likes to tease me about 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:22.000 all my teams anyway. But I now lean towards the over. 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:24.280 Once I sort of dug into it, and again it's 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:25.960 all over the place. It's ninety and a half, it's 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:27.800 ninety one, it's ninety one and a half at the 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:29.840 various books. So for me, it's ninety and a half. 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.840 That makes a little more even enticing. I think the 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:35.880 big thing, Joe is you nailed it, which for the 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:39.000 first time really with the new ownership, they have depth. 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.120 They have so much depth. It's like it used to 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:43.840 be like, all right, if everything goes perfectly, we're fine, 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:45.960 but if we get one injury to the staff, then 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:49.480 we're calling up Rando like relievers to start games. You know, 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.400 you've got lou Casey and you've got Yamamoto and you 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:56.360