Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Speaker 1: He what's up, everybody? It's me he Joe Bisavia, and
Speaker 1: welcome to Fantasy Pros, where fantasy sports lives and where
Speaker 1: wagering lives too, because today we've got a betting pro
Speaker 1: show for you for MLB. That's right, it's not just
Speaker 1: NFL anymore. No, no big changes here at Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be me, it's gonna be Dan Harris, and
Speaker 1: it's gonna be you. And we're gonna go through win
Speaker 1: totals in Major League Baseball for the National League teams. Today.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about what those win totals are, if
Speaker 1: we like the overs, the unders, which ones we want
Speaker 1: to stay away from, and where there might be some value.
Speaker 1: And there's always value in the Fantasy Pros tools and
Speaker 1: there's no bigger tool. Excuse me, there's no better person
Speaker 1: to discuss the tools. I'm sorry, Dan, that came out weird,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris, how are you? My friend? Tell us all
Speaker 1: about what the exciting things that are happening ever a
Speaker 1: fantasy especially on the betting side at Betting Pros.
Speaker 2: What a slip of the tongue show. Oops, Hi everybody. Okay, So,
Speaker 2: as you know, if you have subscribed to this show,
Speaker 2: we have been basically exclusively a betting pro show based
Speaker 2: on the NFL. That's all we've done. We've done it
Speaker 2: during the NFL season. We're going to continue to do that.
Speaker 2: Of course, during the NFL season, we'll do two shows
Speaker 2: a week, go back to the old school way of
Speaker 2: doing it, bringing on people from around the industry. But
Speaker 2: now we're expanding. We've got Joe pi Zapia here if
Speaker 2: you are if you listen to our fantasy shows, you
Speaker 2: are familiar with him. Now. He's been our host for
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks. He's also going to be the
Speaker 2: host of the Betting Pro Show. It's going to be
Speaker 2: a weekly show from here on out. We are going
Speaker 2: to be touching for the next few weeks on MLB
Speaker 2: because that's where we are. When we get to the NFL,
Speaker 2: we will be talking about the NFL, but we're gonna
Speaker 2: have guests on from around the industry doing a weekly
Speaker 2: show talking about whatever the big event is going on
Speaker 2: that week or you know. Obviously the different sports with NBA, NHL,
Speaker 2: we're already into the season, so we can't do the
Speaker 2: preseason episodes, of course, but going forward, this is a
Speaker 2: weekly show that we will be doing beyond the NFL.
Speaker 2: It was the Betting Pros NFL podcast. It is now
Speaker 2: the Betting Pros Podcast, So make sure you subscribe, you
Speaker 2: tune in every week. We're going to be here for you.
Speaker 2: For now, for the next couple of weeks, it's going
Speaker 2: to be baseball, which Joey p and I love. We
Speaker 2: love to talk some baseball, so I'm ready for the
Speaker 2: NL win totals. Baby, let's do it.
Speaker 1: And to be fair, I am the second biggest tool
Speaker 1: behind Dan. Okay, these are the tools that you need
Speaker 1: right here. So all joking aside, this is something we're
Speaker 1: very passionate about. We love it. I talk a ton
Speaker 1: of this stuff over on Sports Careered on Television two
Speaker 1: for the last few years, and I'm very excited to
Speaker 1: be talking it here on Fantasy Pros. And let's start
Speaker 1: with the National League East, and let's start with the
Speaker 1: win total of the Atlanta Braves. Now, it's funny because
Speaker 1: Baseball Perspectus has them somewhere on eighty two wins, which
Speaker 1: I thought was very, very strange. But the win total
Speaker 1: around the aggregate value and once again trying to take
Speaker 1: all these different sites like we do here on Fantasy Pros,
Speaker 1: on the betting side on Betting Pros and give you
Speaker 1: kind of what the general landscape is. Yeah, it's going
Speaker 1: to be a half different here and there, but for
Speaker 1: the most part, you're looking at ninety one and a half,
Speaker 1: so you're looking at the Atlanta Braves and in terms
Speaker 1: of rotation, they did make a big addition there with
Speaker 1: Charlie Morton, and I think that's a bigger impact than
Speaker 1: other people do. He's a veteran stability, a guy who
Speaker 1: you can count on for innings. That's huge right now
Speaker 1: coming off of a season where you really don't know,
Speaker 1: especially with the injuries they've had to Soroka and some
Speaker 1: of those young pitchers. Ian Anderson was a revelation last year,
Speaker 1: but there's questions about how much he can handle in
Speaker 1: terms of workload this year. It's a great lineup Dan,
Speaker 1: but it's a little top heavy. I think I'd be
Speaker 1: surprised if you got the same kind of production you
Speaker 1: got out of Darnault and out of some of the
Speaker 1: other players in the bottom part, whether it's the Swanson's
Speaker 1: or Darnaul's or maybe even Marcella Zuna to a certain extent,
Speaker 1: because we saw the best of Azooa last year, but
Speaker 1: we've seen him be a streaky player in the past.
Speaker 1: So ninety one and a half is that number? How
Speaker 1: do you feel about this number when it comes to
Speaker 1: the braves.
Speaker 2: It's a big number, it really is. And again we
Speaker 2: you know, Joe, you look at the projection systems that
Speaker 2: are around you mentioned it and Pacoda like they ow they've
Speaker 2: faded the braves right like the last everybody has recently
Speaker 2: and they just constantly go over. But ninety one is
Speaker 2: a big number, ninety one and a half, and I
Speaker 2: think that's something that kind of we throw around, like
Speaker 2: ninety ninety one. It's tough. It is very tough in
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball to get to even ninety wins. By
Speaker 2: the way, for the for the wins, as Joe mentioned,
Speaker 2: we're going to be using the consensus wins. So at
Speaker 2: Betting Pros, what we do is we aggregate all the
Speaker 2: available sports book Now I'm in New Hampshire, so the
Speaker 2: only numbers that I can get are at Draft Kings.
Speaker 2: But if you look at Bettingpros dot Com, and I
Speaker 2: think it's Joe's at bettingpros dot com slash MLB wins right.
Speaker 2: Is that the link for the link. If you want
Speaker 2: to see the win totals for everything, you can see
Speaker 2: it where it is in every book Now. Ninety one
Speaker 2: and a half is everywhere, like there's no differentiation at
Speaker 2: it at all. So the consensus line is ninety one
Speaker 2: and a half. That's what I have at a DraftKings too.
Speaker 2: If I'm going one where, I don't love this bet
Speaker 2: either way. If I lean one way, it would be
Speaker 2: towards the over for a couple of reasons. I do
Speaker 2: like the lineup. I mean Acunya obviously leading off is fantastic.
Speaker 2: I don't know exactly how it's gonna bear out Freeman
Speaker 2: off the MVP. I think Ozuna maybe not quite as
Speaker 2: good as he was last year. Darn I was getting
Speaker 2: up there, but he is kind of legitimate. I love
Speaker 2: Ozzie Alby's Dansby Swanson is kind of real now, like
Speaker 2: I've been looking into him for on the fantasy side,
Speaker 2: He's he's legit. I like what I've seen from him.
Speaker 2: I like Austin Riley, and I like the rotation. Joe.
Speaker 2: I really do like Charlie Morton, like he's one of
Speaker 2: one of my guys. Ian Anderson was a guy who
Speaker 2: at the beginning of the Fantasy season, I was like,
Speaker 2: I'm not in on this guy.
Speaker 1: Now I'm totally in I too, because you and I,
Speaker 1: You and I both got to come to the Ian
Speaker 1: Anderson world right now in the last few weeks, and
Speaker 1: I've had that same kind of revelation. Hyeah, it's like,
Speaker 1: you know what where he's going. It just makes a
Speaker 1: lot of sense. But yeah, I personally feel like it's
Speaker 1: kind of a It's again. These numbers are always right on.
Speaker 1: That's the whole point. I would either stay away from
Speaker 1: this one because it feels just about right. I don't
Speaker 1: know if they're gonna bbliterate this number. And I'm a
Speaker 1: little concerned because it is high. It's a very competitive division.
Speaker 1: As we're gonna get you, this is the most competitive
Speaker 1: division in the National League. Yes, that's what scares me
Speaker 1: about going too high old for this number. If anything,
Speaker 1: I would probably stay away. But if I had a lean,
Speaker 1: the lean would certainly be on the over by a
Speaker 1: hair because I do think Atlanta is that team where
Speaker 1: they're used to success. They're used to being on top.
Speaker 1: They are built I think for the long haul, but
Speaker 1: I also just I do have some questions about some
Speaker 1: of the guys. I love Max Reid, I love Morton,
Speaker 1: I love Anderson. The rest of that rotation was still
Speaker 1: figuring out the ball.
Speaker 2: I like Smiley. I think if again I mentioned Smiley before,
Speaker 2: I think if Smiley can stay healthy, which is always
Speaker 2: a big if. And again, Soroka is probably gonna miss
Speaker 2: what April coming back from the Achilles' hair. But the
Speaker 2: rotation is pretty good. The bullpend though, Joe not terrible.
Speaker 2: I mean, Will Smith's very solid, Martin is good. Mintor
Speaker 2: bounced back. It just it is the tough division. That's
Speaker 2: the thing about it is when you're looking at the
Speaker 2: wind totals for any division, That's why the central is
Speaker 2: such a fascinating place to look at, because the wind
Speaker 2: totals are all low because they're gonna, you know, somebody
Speaker 2: who's got to go over basically in that one. So
Speaker 2: I think for this, I agree with you. Ninety one
Speaker 2: and a half is a sharp number. I don't love
Speaker 2: either way, but I kind of would lean over, And
Speaker 2: it might be because I'm fading some of the other
Speaker 2: teams in the division.
Speaker 1: That might be the Marlins are at seventy and a half,
Speaker 1: which I gotta tell you, it seemed very low to
Speaker 1: me right off the bat. This is where I think
Speaker 1: the first spot where I'm actually a little bit excited
Speaker 1: about a number, because I think that pitching is much
Speaker 1: better than people realize. I just did a little write
Speaker 1: up on Fantasy Pros about Elie's or Hernandez. I just
Speaker 1: got to interview Craig Mish this week, who covers the Marlins,
Speaker 1: and I asked him, I said, so tell me who
Speaker 1: is the guy that's getting all the balls out of
Speaker 1: camp now with the Marlins, because you know it's always
Speaker 1: the buzz guy. And he said, without a doubt, it's Hernandez.
Speaker 1: And you add him in with Lopez and Sixto Sanchez.
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, this pitching is a lot better
Speaker 1: than people realize. If you get some bounce back from
Speaker 1: Corey Dickerson, you get some guys like Jazz chishm to
Speaker 1: kind of take a step up, all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: the Marlins, you know, they were a playoff team last year.
Speaker 1: I know it was a short season. I just think
Speaker 1: seventy and a half is very low. I think they're
Speaker 1: closer to a five hundred team than they are to
Speaker 1: a seventy win team. So to me, this is actually
Speaker 1: a comfortable over I feel much more comfortable with this
Speaker 1: number than I do with the Braves number. So you
Speaker 1: walk me through your thoughts about them, Carlins. Do you
Speaker 1: think this is too low? Or am I overrating this
Speaker 1: Marlins pitching staff a little?
Speaker 2: I think a little both. Actually I don't. I don't
Speaker 2: think you're overrating the staff. I think the staff is
Speaker 2: really good. Sandy al Contra also very very good there,
Speaker 2: So I think it's a it's a solid staff. That
Speaker 2: is what I have the least question marked about. With
Speaker 2: the Marlins. The lineup is just kind of I don't know,
Speaker 2: it's not.
Speaker 1: That's what they are. They don't have that guy. They
Speaker 1: don't have that dude. There's there's no you know, Juan
Speaker 1: Soto in that kind of.
Speaker 2: I've got Starling Marte, who I like but is kind
Speaker 2: of an aging speedster at this point, right not not
Speaker 2: somebody's So the lineup isn't great. The bullpen, they don't have,
Speaker 2: like the strike up I mean, Y mean, Garcia maybe
Speaker 2: is the strike up guy, but Anthony bass is fine,
Speaker 2: Dylan Floro, It's fine, it's not great. With that said,
Speaker 2: I agree with you. I don't think this is a
Speaker 2: smash of the over, but I am leaning over on
Speaker 2: it for sure. And again, the consensus line is seventy
Speaker 2: and a half, and it's to go under. You're getting
Speaker 2: plus money for the consentives line. It's plus one oh
Speaker 2: five over it's minus one thirty four. And part of that,
Speaker 2: I think is because of the fact that there are
Speaker 2: a lot of books out there that are at seventy one.
Speaker 2: So the consensus line is seventy and a half, but
Speaker 2: there's a lot of books out there if you look
Speaker 2: at seventy one and a half, so it's right on
Speaker 2: the border in between. If you can get seventy and
Speaker 2: a half. I agree with you, Joe. I think I
Speaker 2: would go over here. I think they're again being a
Speaker 2: little undervalued, but I don't really It's hard for me
Speaker 2: to see them getting to five hundred unless that staff
Speaker 2: stays fully healthy all year and just rocks the house,
Speaker 2: because that is the strength of the team.
Speaker 1: All right. Moving on to the Philadelphia Phillies. Eighty and
Speaker 1: a half is this number. I'm gonna save our mets
Speaker 1: for last, because I know we have so many feelings.
Speaker 1: I know originally we're going to do that, but let's
Speaker 1: do the Phillies next. Eighty and a half is the
Speaker 1: number here, and this feels dead on to me. I
Speaker 1: think this is an absolute five hundred team. I understand
Speaker 1: they made some acquisitions in the offseason to improve the bullpen.
Speaker 1: It's improved. I still don't think it's great as era
Speaker 1: of the bullpen was over eight last year. That is stunning.
Speaker 1: I mean stunning, like you just can't even wrap your
Speaker 1: mind around it. And I get it, it's only sixty
Speaker 1: game season. It's still atrocious even regardless, So the Phillies
Speaker 1: are a bit of an enigma for me. I think
Speaker 1: they are a five hundred team. They have top of
Speaker 1: the you know tier guys, the Bryce Harpers of the world,
Speaker 1: and they have those top two pitchers in the front
Speaker 1: and then after that, it's a lot of questions that
Speaker 1: back ends a bullpens question. Still, I still think it's
Speaker 1: going to cost some games this year. It's enough for
Speaker 1: me to run away from this number. I don't love
Speaker 1: this Phillies number. I think they're an eighty one win
Speaker 1: team and that's basically where they're sitting.
Speaker 2: I like the under a little bit more because I'm
Speaker 2: fading them this year. I really am. And by the way,
Speaker 2: you can get eighty one and a half at Fandle.
Speaker 2: That's the one book that I'm seeing out there on Fandle.
Speaker 1: At the eighty one and a half. That's a more
Speaker 1: comfortable under, I think for me.
Speaker 2: A little more comfortable. It's funny you're like, well, one win,
Speaker 2: one win is.
Speaker 1: One enormous Well, one win is a big differ. It
Speaker 1: really is.
Speaker 2: It really is. But even at eighty and a half,
Speaker 2: which the consensus lign is, which is where I could
Speaker 2: get it at DraftKings and where it's basically sitting, I
Speaker 2: still lean the under the bullpen. I mean they tried, right,
Speaker 2: They added some some heat back there with Archie Bradley
Speaker 2: and Jose Alvarada, and they signed Kinsler, you know, to
Speaker 2: a minor league deal, but I'm sure it'll be in
Speaker 2: the Major so it's better. But you know, I'm not
Speaker 2: totally loving it. It is the staff, I mean, Nola's great,
Speaker 2: Zach Wheeler is great, Ethlyn's Okay, Velasquez and more that's
Speaker 2: not gonna cut it. And the lineup, I mean real
Speaker 2: Mutto already fractured his thumb. I doubt he'll be ready
Speaker 2: exactly on opening day, and that.
Speaker 1: Hurts the pitching staff too. It does as we need
Speaker 1: we need to realize. I mean, not that he's not
Speaker 1: familiar with those guys, but yeah, you just want to
Speaker 1: be in a rhythm with everybody going into the season,
Speaker 1: and when you're working from behind, that could mean some
Speaker 1: struggles in April, and that's enough to bring them down
Speaker 1: a little bit.
Speaker 2: And the lineup is just like whatever, Like real, Muto's great,
Speaker 2: Harper is fantastic, but you know, McCutcheon is like a
Speaker 2: thousand years old, and I love them, but you know,
Speaker 2: and you know, Hoskins one of my favorite players. Again,
Speaker 2: but none of these guys, Gregorious boem Segura, like it's
Speaker 2: just whatever. In this division where they're gonna have to
Speaker 2: play the Braves, they're gonna have to play the Mets.
Speaker 2: The Marlins aren't going to be as terrible, the Nationals
Speaker 2: aren't going to be terrible. This just strikes me as
Speaker 2: kind of the under that I lean towards the most
Speaker 2: here with the Phillies at eighty and a half, especially
Speaker 2: at eighty one and.
Speaker 1: A half, all right. Let's move on to the Washington Nationals,
Speaker 1: which is a place where you can I think, make
Speaker 1: some money here if you have real feelings about this
Speaker 1: pitching staff being right. Because if this pitching staff is right,
Speaker 1: I know they're eighty four and a half is basically
Speaker 1: the number somewhere around there is which you're getting most places.
Speaker 1: There's one spot where you're getting eighty three and a half,
Speaker 1: which I would be looking for that one and to
Speaker 1: take the over. And that's a Fox bet. And I
Speaker 1: gotta tell you, like, I think that you can make
Speaker 1: some money on the Nationals this year. You do have
Speaker 1: won Soda, you still have Victor Robless, you still have
Speaker 1: Trey Turner. There's a lot of good young players obviously
Speaker 1: on that team. Plus you brought in Josh Bell, you
Speaker 1: brought in schwar where both guys look really good playing
Speaker 1: for contracts right now in the spring. They've looked very
Speaker 1: good so far in the very early going. You just
Speaker 1: want to see them show up to camp in good shape, ready, focus.
Speaker 1: That's what you're looking for. And for me, Dan, I
Speaker 1: think this is one where if the pitching is right,
Speaker 1: They've got Brad Hand now closing out games. That is
Speaker 1: a good solid investment. Especially if you do think a
Speaker 1: little less of the Phillies, then maybe you should think
Speaker 1: a little bit more than Ats.
Speaker 2: This is a really tough one for me because I
Speaker 2: could see them smashing the over on this. If everything
Speaker 2: breaks right, you have basically all three, the Big three.
Speaker 2: They all have to bounce back right. Sureser has kind
Speaker 2: of been battling injury a little bit and saw some
Speaker 2: sort of real downturn in his numbers last year. Corbin
Speaker 2: lost two miles per hour on his velocity. Strasbourg barely
Speaker 2: pitched and had the surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. I'm
Speaker 2: getting more optimistic on each one of them as I
Speaker 2: dig into them even more. The back end of their
Speaker 2: rotation is kind of gross. I mean, John Lester, John
Speaker 2: Lester's tear.
Speaker 1: Nobody's trying to tell me about John Lester. I do
Speaker 1: not want to hear that. No, no, no, But.
Speaker 2: I do agree that hand is a huge addition to
Speaker 2: that bullpen. And you've got Rainy, You've got Harris, you've
Speaker 2: got Hudson, and the lineup is Yeah, that's the thing.
Speaker 2: If Schwarber kind of bounces back, and you know, we're
Speaker 2: in best shape of you know, his life season right now.
Speaker 2: He does look good.
Speaker 1: It does look very good.
Speaker 2: Bell. I'm willing to kind of buy the whole My
Speaker 2: season got my swing got really long last year and
Speaker 2: I kind of lost, and I let my father side
Speaker 2: to sort of get me some bad habits. I like
Speaker 2: him as a hitter, and when you add that with
Speaker 2: Soto and Turner, I think it has the potential to
Speaker 2: go over. But I'm not comfortable with I'm like, right there,
Speaker 2: I'm like at eighty four like that. That's basically what
Speaker 2: I think is the right number. So this is kind
Speaker 2: of a stay away for me right now. But I
Speaker 2: see the potential for it to go way over if
Speaker 2: in the spring everybody looks kind of as we think.
Speaker 1: They could look. I think that's the thing. If you're
Speaker 1: going into that you're healthy with those three pictures and
Speaker 1: Corvin especially looks good, I think you might want to
Speaker 1: dabble in this one. Otherwise you could see the opposite,
Speaker 1: because we've seen this team unravel too when those pictures
Speaker 1: have injuries and they don't have enough in the system
Speaker 1: and the pitching to make up for that. Now it's
Speaker 1: time for our New York Mets. Dan ninety one wins.
Speaker 1: Oh model, As my grandmother would say, that is a
Speaker 1: lot of wins for the New York Mets. Now here's
Speaker 1: the thing. Stroman's back, you got Carrasco, You've got grom
Speaker 1: At some point, you hope to get Cinderguard. I'm not
Speaker 1: as concerned as everybody else about Lugo and the elbow.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a clean up surgery that should be fine.
Speaker 1: Go back and look at Cole Hamil's eery had his
Speaker 1: clean up. He came back at what his best seasons.
Speaker 1: So I'm looking at this Mets team. The addition of
Speaker 1: Lindora Carrasco, Trevor May, They've done some really good things.
Speaker 1: But most importantly it's the depth. It's the depth of
Speaker 1: adding versatility and athleticism, which is something the Mets have
Speaker 1: lacked both of for quite some time. Whether it be
Speaker 1: a Jonathan vr At, Kevin Palar, anybody else that rhymes
Speaker 1: with Allar, it could be Malex Smith. All these guys athletic, versatile,
Speaker 1: and I think give them a different dynamic off the
Speaker 1: bench that we're used to seeing. This is a faster team,
Speaker 1: this is a deeper team, and I think the lineup
Speaker 1: is very good this year, especially with Nimo, Dominic Smith
Speaker 1: surrounding Confordo and Alonso. I know I'm painting a Rosie picture,
Speaker 1: which is something that I never do as a Mets fan.
Speaker 1: Usually it's the opposite, right, But I actually think this
Speaker 1: is a team that's going to win ninety something games.
Speaker 1: The question is, Dandy, you feel good about the ninety one.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's hard as a Mets fan.
Speaker 1: I'm trying my best to be to look at this realistically,
Speaker 1: and they are the deepest team in this division. Yes,
Speaker 1: they are the deepest, period and I think that wins
Speaker 1: out more often than not in the one sixty two.
Speaker 2: Nowadays Pakoda has them and ninety four wins. I mean
Speaker 2: ninety four. And when I first looked at this and
Speaker 2: I was talking about it with my boss, who was like,
Speaker 2: I'm smashing the under. He likes to tease me about
Speaker 2: all my teams anyway. But I now lean towards the over.
Speaker 2: Once I sort of dug into it, and again it's
Speaker 2: all over the place. It's ninety and a half, it's
Speaker 2: ninety one, it's ninety one and a half at the
Speaker 2: various books. So for me, it's ninety and a half.
Speaker 2: That makes a little more even enticing. I think the
Speaker 2: big thing, Joe is you nailed it, which for the
Speaker 2: first time really with the new ownership, they have depth.
Speaker 2: They have so much depth. It's like it used to
Speaker 2: be like, all right, if everything goes perfectly, we're fine,
Speaker 2: but if we get one injury to the staff, then
Speaker 2: we're calling up Rando like relievers to start games. You know,
Speaker 2: you've got lou Casey and you've got Yamamoto and you
Speaker 2: can survive. And you've got the defensive addition too.
Speaker 1: They've got that eight starting pitcher thing exactly. They've got
Speaker 1: a bench where if there's an injury, they've got versatil
Speaker 1: where McNeil can float, Davis can float, VR plays three
Speaker 1: different positions. Yeah, that's unique. You don't see a Mets
Speaker 1: team that has that, and I think it's going to
Speaker 1: be very refreshing. They're also going to be able to
Speaker 1: create runs for the first time in a long time. Yes,
Speaker 1: they've been very stationed station for many years. Lindor changes
Speaker 1: that wholeheartedly. I mean that that is a big, big
Speaker 1: shift for the Mets from a philosophical standpoint of how
Speaker 1: they're built.
Speaker 2: I love the defensive, Like you mentioned, polar Almora, the
Speaker 2: guys who you.
Speaker 1: Know I even mentioned because he didn't rhyme with Polar
Speaker 1: or Volar.
Speaker 2: But you've got especially with Don Smith, you know right now,
Speaker 2: schedule to play left and you know you can get
Speaker 2: the defense late in games. That makes a huge difference.
Speaker 2: And the other thing really is, Joe Baseball teams are
Speaker 2: poor right now because of their revenue. You know who's
Speaker 2: not poor, Steve step Going, Steve Going. It's what I
Speaker 2: think is really what kind of pushed me over the
Speaker 2: edge is when you get to mid season and teams
Speaker 2: are like looking to sell and they're looking for salary dumps.
Speaker 2: I mean, look at Lindor. It's not like we gave
Speaker 2: up a huge prospect hall for Lindor and Carrasco. We
Speaker 2: were just willing to absorb the huge salaries because now
Speaker 2: we have an ownership group that can do that. And
Speaker 2: I think that's going to come into play mid season
Speaker 2: when we're able to regroup. As long as we're in contention,
Speaker 2: I think they're going to make some big addition, which
Speaker 2: is why now at this point I lean towards the
Speaker 2: over even at ninety and a half, ninety one, maybe
Speaker 2: even ninety one and a half, So I'm over. It's terrible.
Speaker 2: But at that point I.
Speaker 1: Think I'm over too. That's where my lean is also. Yep,
Speaker 1: I'm moving on to the central the Chicago Cubs. There's
Speaker 1: still some guys there, I mean, Rizzo, Biaz, you know,
Speaker 1: Wilson Good. Yeah, still got Chris Bryant. There's still Kyle
Speaker 1: Hendrix there. But let's be honest, I mean it is.
Speaker 1: This is the opposite, right, It's thin. I like he
Speaker 1: and half very much more than most people. But seventy
Speaker 1: eight and a half is the number here for the
Speaker 1: Cubs and Dan. I look at this as a lean
Speaker 1: towards the under. I just feel as though, you know,
Speaker 1: as the season goes on, they're going to be separating
Speaker 1: themselves in the wrong direction from teams like the Brewers
Speaker 1: and teams like the Cardinals, and that means that there's
Speaker 1: gonna be opportunity to get rid of some more of
Speaker 1: these guys because they're not bringing back all these guys.
Speaker 1: In fact, I'd be surprised if they brought back any
Speaker 1: of these free agents. And the Cubs just completely wipe
Speaker 1: the slate clean. We'll see if they get away with that.
Speaker 1: But what are your feelings on this seventy eight and
Speaker 1: a half when it comes to the Cubs, because it
Speaker 1: feels like an under to me, I feel like you're
Speaker 1: getting a premium number because it's a big market team
Speaker 1: at the seventy eight and a half, and I think
Speaker 1: that is perfectly something you want to take advantage of.
Speaker 2: Is diddo an okay analysis?
Speaker 1: It is perfect. We could say ditto and move on
Speaker 1: to the next team. For all that, well, I do.
Speaker 2: The biggest thing I want to point out are two
Speaker 2: points number one. I mean, there was talk about them
Speaker 2: dealing Bryant and everything like that, Like this is a
Speaker 2: team that has every intention of dealing away pieces if
Speaker 2: they fall out of contention, which by the way, is
Speaker 2: a big deal when you're thinking about win totals, because
Speaker 2: if that does happen, then like even if they're on
Speaker 2: a trajectory to go past that wind total mid season,
Speaker 2: if they start dealing off pieces, then you're going to
Speaker 2: be able to obviously change the trajectory. But the bigger
Speaker 2: thing for me, Joe is really the pitching staff. I
Speaker 2: love Kyle Hendrix. I'm like the biggest fan of Kyle
Speaker 2: Hendricks in the world. Who is their number two starter
Speaker 2: is it is it, Jake Arietta, is it Alec? It's sad.
Speaker 1: That's the problem. It's just it's it's not enough, and
Speaker 1: there's no pipeline to speak of right now.
Speaker 2: That pipe line is gone dry.
Speaker 1: You know, the guys that you thought were going to
Speaker 1: take you into that next stage, whether it be al Mora,
Speaker 1: Ian happ took a little longer to develop, Schwarbur somewhere else.
Speaker 1: So it's a it's it's not good for the Cubs.
Speaker 1: The Reds are a weird one too, because they're at
Speaker 1: eighty two and a half. Yeah, I thought was a
Speaker 1: little high. Also, now, I don't you know, I saw
Speaker 1: Green pitch yesterday. He was, you know, hitting a hundred
Speaker 1: on the on the radar gun. That's cool, that's great.
Speaker 1: I don't know how much he's going to contribute. He
Speaker 1: still got Someday great and still got Castillo, but they
Speaker 1: basically just dismantled the bullpen. And I know Amir Garrett's there,
Speaker 1: and I know Sims is still there. Hopefully he can
Speaker 1: get healthy and be ready at some point earlier in
Speaker 1: the season then we anticipate. But still this is a
Speaker 1: very weird I think the Reds are a very streaky
Speaker 1: team on paper because you have great talent like Mustakas,
Speaker 1: you have Suarez, you have Castianos. But some of these
Speaker 1: players do have hot and cold streaks, and I think
Speaker 1: that does equate to about a five hundred team. But Dan,
Speaker 1: I mean as much as I like Tarl Mally in
Speaker 1: this rotation too, it just feels like that bullpen's gonna
Speaker 1: cost them games. They feel like the Phillies of the Central.
Speaker 1: To me, it's like they're top heavy, they're streaky, and
Speaker 1: when it matters most, closing out the game, I'm concerned
Speaker 1: whether or not they'll be able to get that bridge
Speaker 1: to the win.
Speaker 2: I think you're right, I the Phillies of the Central
Speaker 2: is a great way to talk about It's not a
Speaker 2: terrible team. It's like it's kind of close.
Speaker 1: To another team that made the playoffs last year.
Speaker 2: That correct, But I do lean the under here and
Speaker 2: again I like that the front of their rotation with Gray,
Speaker 2: Castillo and Mallley, but you know, Wade Miley and Michael
Speaker 2: Lorenzen or whoever's gonna be there four or five just
Speaker 2: don't do it for me. The bullpen is questionable. Lineup's fine.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Castianos, who you know, I like Suarez,
Speaker 2: good Mustacas Winker, but this strikes me as a team
Speaker 2: they were looking at possibly deal Castillo before the season started.
Speaker 2: I don't think this is a team that really thinks
Speaker 2: it's in contention. This team that I think is going
Speaker 2: to deal in the middle of the season when they
Speaker 2: fall out of contention, and I think they'll fall under
Speaker 2: five hundred, which means I do like the eighty two
Speaker 2: and a half under on that one, because I just
Speaker 2: it's gonna shock me if this team sort of is
Speaker 2: in contention to win the division.
Speaker 1: Now, it's not gonna shock me if the Brewers are there,
Speaker 1: because I've learned my lesson. I understand Yealwisch was hurt
Speaker 1: last year. I get it. But as long as he
Speaker 1: looks good this spring, this eighty two and a half
Speaker 1: in the Brewers isn't over for me. And it's not
Speaker 1: even a lean, it's an actual wager. I just feel like,
Speaker 1: you know, with Woodroof with Burns, I think they will
Speaker 1: have somebody else in that rotation step up. It's hard
Speaker 1: to pick out who, but I think one of those
Speaker 1: guys that I think limb Limblam to me was a
Speaker 1: guy I circled too, So I'm glad you kind of
Speaker 1: reiterated that. But as long as Yelwich's is good, the
Speaker 1: rest of this team will be fine because that's all
Speaker 1: they've needed. Basically, they've been able to get there. They
Speaker 1: have a stunning bullpen with Hater at the back end
Speaker 1: there and Williams. It's just it's a it's a really
Speaker 1: much better team than people give them credit for. They
Speaker 1: add a Colton Wong, a couple of other pieces here and there.
Speaker 1: To me, this eighty two and a half, they are
Speaker 1: better than a five hundred team. I don't get this,
Speaker 1: Like I look at the rest of the division and
Speaker 1: I feel like the Brewers are gonna be fighting for
Speaker 1: the top with the Cardinals and eighty two and a half.
Speaker 1: I just think that's a little, a little discounting the
Speaker 1: Brewers in my mind, and it's time we stop doing that.
Speaker 2: It's weird how in sync we are with this, but
Speaker 2: hopefully that means it's right. But I this is also
Speaker 2: a bet that I.
Speaker 1: Have two smart, handsome people are in agreement. How could
Speaker 1: anyone not listen to them?
Speaker 2: Well, that's fair. If we ever find too smart handsome people,
Speaker 2: they'll I have bet this as well at over eighty
Speaker 2: two and a half, and I feel really confident about it.
Speaker 2: You're right, the starting staff in the back end is
Speaker 2: a little questionable, but you know they'll I think they'll
Speaker 2: get it done enough, mainly because I think they have
Speaker 2: the bullpen to do it. And you're right. Look, Lorenzo Caine,
Speaker 2: that we've talked a lot about on the fantasy side,
Speaker 2: is back. I think he adds a lot to that.
Speaker 2: They added Colton Wong, so defensively they get a lot better.
Speaker 2: I think Caston Hira is gonna bounce back. They just
Speaker 2: signed this morning right before we recorded Jackie Bradley Junior
Speaker 2: to add to again the defensive sort of prowess that
Speaker 2: they're out there. I think they're gonna. I think they're
Speaker 2: actually gonna take the division. So I don't mind a
Speaker 2: future on the division winner either. But yeah, I love
Speaker 2: the eighty two and a half. It's a bet that
Speaker 2: I have made and I think it's gonna rise as
Speaker 2: we get into it, So I'm with you all right.
Speaker 1: Next on the list here we have the Saint Louis Cardinals.
Speaker 1: You know, we'll finish up with Pittsburgh last. But because
Speaker 1: let's talk about the ones that are actually competing here,
Speaker 1: because the Cardinals at eighty six and a half, this
Speaker 1: seems like a pretty good number for me. Once again,
Speaker 1: the Cardinals rotation I have a lot of questions about.
Speaker 1: I still like Flierty, big fan. I love the aeronautl move.
Speaker 1: It helps the pitching staff, of course. I just have
Speaker 1: questions about the rest of the rotation. I just do.
Speaker 1: And it's enough questions where I would lean towards the
Speaker 1: under here. I think this is more like an eighty
Speaker 1: four win team than an eighty six and a half
Speaker 1: win team, And if you're getting that a six with
Speaker 1: the half, I would really prefer the under there, because
Speaker 1: they could have a good season to win eighty four
Speaker 1: to eighty five games. They could be in that wild
Speaker 1: card discussion around there. Yeah, but I just don't know
Speaker 1: if this is a team that's going to approach ninety games.
Speaker 1: And I know Saint Louis is a great place, and
Speaker 1: I know Aeronaut is a huge addition to this team
Speaker 1: along with gold Shmith, and they have some good players,
Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, it's just the pitching for
Speaker 1: me where I just I think they're going to just
Speaker 1: benefit from this bottom feed or division when you have
Speaker 1: teams like Pittsburgh and I think Chicago's gonna be bad
Speaker 1: and Cincinna's gonna be streaky, so it's gonna inflate them
Speaker 1: a little bit. But I don't know if they can
Speaker 1: inflate them over this number.
Speaker 2: I agree, you know, it's weird. This is another one
Speaker 2: like the bray is where the projection systems that don't
Speaker 2: ever love the Cardinals and they seem to beat him.
Speaker 2: But again Pacoda's at eighty one here, so that that's
Speaker 2: a pretty big difference. And again it bounces around the
Speaker 2: consensus eighty six and a half. I'm looking at now
Speaker 2: Fox bets at the eighty five and a half fandle
Speaker 2: at eighty six, So it really is a little bit different.
Speaker 2: But it is the pitching. The lineup is solid, their
Speaker 2: defense is solid. Their bullpen has interesting arms in it,
Speaker 2: especially if Hicks can can bounce back and everything like that.
Speaker 2: But it's the staff. I mean, after Flaherty, I know
Speaker 2: everybody's like, wow, Adam Wayne Wright still getting it done.
Speaker 1: Yeah, But the peripherally, the behind the scenes numbers on waynewright,
Speaker 1: it's like smoking mirrors. The same thing you saw at
Speaker 1: Lester for the first monment the season last year, and
Speaker 1: if you paid attention to that, it was gonna implode.
Speaker 1: And it certainly imploded in September.
Speaker 2: And Carlos Martinez just can never stay healthy and Michaels
Speaker 2: is just not ever there and you know, Kim fine,
Speaker 2: but you know, I just don't think the rotation there
Speaker 2: is good enough. It's really about if they can feast
Speaker 2: enough on teams like the Cubs and the Pirates to
Speaker 2: make it work. And it doesn't strike me. It does
Speaker 2: strike This team is more like a five hundred team
Speaker 2: to me. So I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I lean the under, and it's very rare you get
Speaker 1: a team that's going to be under sixty wins for
Speaker 1: a total. The Pirates win total aggregate wise is a
Speaker 1: fifty eight and a half. And normally what you do
Speaker 1: is you look here and you say, okay, where can
Speaker 1: I find the bright spots? Where can I find where
Speaker 1: they can go over this because it's so low, the
Speaker 1: bar is so low that it's actually something you can
Speaker 1: at times make money on. We did this a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago with I think one of the Orioles teams. No,
Speaker 1: it was last year. It was obviously not last year.
Speaker 1: It was a year or two ago, and you just
Speaker 1: look at a low winter and you go, there's opportunity.
Speaker 1: They're going to be better than this. They're not this bad.
Speaker 1: You can find that sometimes. I don't know if I
Speaker 1: can figure this out for Pittsburgh, I really don't. I mean,
Speaker 1: it is barren right now, and the guys that they
Speaker 1: have coming up are not going to be seen this
Speaker 1: year at all. So I just think that is a
Speaker 1: bad situation. It's not bad enough that I want to
Speaker 1: go under because it's too low. It's a bad risk.
Speaker 1: So this is a stay away from me.
Speaker 2: At the fifty eighth, I probably will sprinkle on the
Speaker 2: over just because it's so ridiculously low.
Speaker 1: Basically hard to get there though, with what I mean,
Speaker 1: in the middle of the order, the.
Speaker 2: Worst major league team in the world right could just
Speaker 2: sort of fall into whatever. You know, however, fifty wins
Speaker 2: or whatever you want to do. I agree, there's not
Speaker 2: I like, like you. I tried to make a case
Speaker 2: for it, and I was like, oh, I mean like
Speaker 2: and most of the time you can. Yeah. I was like,
Speaker 2: do I like Brian Hayes. I think Mitch Keller's got
Speaker 2: some bounce back. I mean, if if the velocity, you know,
Speaker 2: if they keep you know, Rodriguez in the bullpen and
Speaker 2: Kyle Krik bounces back, maybe maybe the bullpen. But yeah,
Speaker 2: you gotta really stretch to make a thing. The biggest
Speaker 2: thing I think and the reason why I think they
Speaker 2: could potentially get over and why if I might sprinkle
Speaker 2: a little bit on the over, is because I do
Speaker 2: expect the rest of the division to essentially, you know,
Speaker 2: sell off mid season, in that the Cubs and the
Speaker 2: Reds I think are probably going to sell off and
Speaker 2: become teams that the Pirates will be able to beat
Speaker 2: as sort of their youngsters get a little there. But
Speaker 2: I agree, usually fifty eight and a half, you're like,
Speaker 2: come on, man, I mean, I mean, come on, We're
Speaker 2: not going to lose one hundred whatever. But it is
Speaker 2: hard to make a case. I think if I lean
Speaker 2: one way just based on the pure value of the number,
Speaker 2: i'd lean over.
Speaker 1: All right, Arizona Diamondbacks. It's seventy four and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm just going to be straight up honest with you.
Speaker 1: I don't have a good gauge of this Dinonbacks team.
Speaker 1: This is a team that to me has a lot
Speaker 1: of variables. They could play way better than people realize,
Speaker 1: and they have the times. You know, they jettisoned all
Speaker 1: their best players and they had one of their better
Speaker 1: seasons in the last ten years. A few years ago.
Speaker 1: I run away from the Diamondbacks. I don't have a
Speaker 1: beat on them. I'm just not there the I love
Speaker 1: Zach Gallon. This is nothing personal against him. I just
Speaker 1: don't There's too many variables, and to me, that's not
Speaker 1: a good investment no matter what the number is. So
Speaker 1: even though seventy four and a half it's tempting to
Speaker 1: go over, I could see where it bottoms out into
Speaker 1: the seventy four and a half. So it's a stay
Speaker 1: away from.
Speaker 2: Me, Dan, I actually like the under I'm fading this
Speaker 2: team like from start, I love Gallon, you and I
Speaker 2: both all over him. After that, the rotation is horrible.
Speaker 2: I mean, Bumgarner, Caleb Smith, Luke Weaver, America. It's just
Speaker 2: not going to get it done in a division where
Speaker 2: you've got to play the Padres and the Dodgers all
Speaker 2: the time, which, by the way, is another thing. You
Speaker 2: have to realize that the Rockies are going to be terrible,
Speaker 2: but they're going to have to play to really like
Speaker 2: elite elite teams constantly, and I think it's gonna hammer it.
Speaker 2: The bullpen is whatever, it's not that good. Sorrya, you
Speaker 2: know whatever, Clipper, it's just not that good. And the lineup,
Speaker 2: you know, you know, tel Marte, Peralta, Walker, Escobar. No,
Speaker 2: it's just it doesn't have the goods in a place
Speaker 2: where you're gonna have to place the Dodgers and the
Speaker 2: Padres all the time. So I'm going under with this one.
Speaker 2: I just do. I do not like this team from
Speaker 2: a wins total perspective.
Speaker 1: So how bad are the Rockies at sixty four and
Speaker 1: a half? Is this a number that you think is
Speaker 1: too low?
Speaker 2: No, I actually don't think that's too low. I think
Speaker 2: it's too high. I realize that that's ridiculous because it's
Speaker 2: sixty four and a half. But this team is terrible, Joe, Like,
Speaker 2: the rotation is terrible. You know, Marquez is fine if
Speaker 2: he's out of Colorado Freeland every once in a while
Speaker 2: can put up some good stuff. But sen to tell out,
Speaker 2: I'm tired of waiting for John Gray. The bullpen is bad. Like,
Speaker 2: kudos to Bard for the comeback, but it's really hard
Speaker 2: for me to see it again.
Speaker 1: You'll see Blackman move too. I get a good feed.
Speaker 2: They want to move. That's the thing. They've moved Aroonato.
Speaker 2: Maybe they'll sign Story, maybe they won't. Maybe they'll move
Speaker 2: Story if they fall out of contention, maybe Blackman gets moved.
Speaker 2: It's the lineup is barren Man. This team has no
Speaker 2: interesting competing this year. They are not an analytical and
Speaker 2: analytically driven team anymore. This strikes me as a team
Speaker 2: that's gonna be bad and then they're gonna deal and
Speaker 2: they're gonna get even worse. So I'm actually under on
Speaker 2: both these guys, the bottom feeders of the division. I'm
Speaker 2: under under sixty four and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, let's do another one before we get to
Speaker 1: the big boys here in this division, because there are
Speaker 1: two big boys. Let's do the San Francisco Giants seventy
Speaker 1: five and a half. Now, this is a team that's
Speaker 1: started to sprinkle in some of the youth and using
Speaker 1: some of these young players they have. Gossman had a
Speaker 1: great season last year for them. So seventy five and
Speaker 1: a half is the number here for the Giants. Your
Speaker 1: thoughts on.
Speaker 2: That, it's about right? I don't have a great lean
Speaker 2: on it. They've kind of had a nice, sneaky good offseason,
Speaker 2: Like I like the addition of Lostella, I like Disclafani.
Speaker 2: Posy is back, and I expect them to be able
Speaker 2: to contribute. Mike Mikey Stremski's still there and good. And
Speaker 2: they got Gossman back, who I am kind of buying into.
Speaker 2: I like kind of the sneaky Aaron Sanchez. They have
Speaker 2: some kind of interesting bullpen pieces. But I don't know,
Speaker 2: it's just not a team to get excited about, Like
Speaker 2: there's no way you don't look at this team and
Speaker 2: see a path for them to really be Like, man,
Speaker 2: this team's going to be like an eighty four win team.
Speaker 2: And once you get past the fact that you're like,
Speaker 2: I don't really know if you're a five hundred win team,
Speaker 2: then you're like a seventy five seventy six that's about right.
Speaker 2: So this is stay away from me. I don't have
Speaker 2: strong feeling I can make a case for both sides,
Speaker 2: so strong unders on the bottom feeders. I think San
Speaker 2: fran is about right where it is a seventy five
Speaker 2: and a half, So stay away from me, all.
Speaker 1: Right, Let's go with the big boys. Now let's start
Speaker 1: with the Padres. Ninety four and a half. It's a
Speaker 1: lot of wins, but they added a lot of pitching.
Speaker 1: This one feels about right to me. I mean, as
Speaker 1: bad as this division is, I think I would lean
Speaker 1: towards the over. But I gotta tell you, I think
Speaker 1: this is exactly where they are. I think they're a
Speaker 1: ninety four and ninety five win team. I don't think
Speaker 1: there's a lot of leeway here. I don't see them
Speaker 1: going under ninety. I don't see things bottoming out. In fact,
Speaker 1: they had a lot of injuries last year and still
Speaker 1: played really good baseball despite that. So they have depth.
Speaker 1: They have better starting pitching. Two aces they added if
Speaker 1: Paddock is good too, and Lamette at some point can
Speaker 1: be healthy. My goodness, this is a lot. So for me,
Speaker 1: it's hard for me to get to the over because
Speaker 1: it's such a high number. I would look for the
Speaker 1: lowest well not I can find. If I can find
Speaker 1: one at ninety two, I would try to do that
Speaker 1: and go over. But that's about it for me. So unfortunately,
Speaker 1: like I just don't think it's in a give here,
Speaker 1: and I don't think it's gonna go negative. So I
Speaker 1: want to beat on the Padres, and I am, but
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be wagering on this. On this ninety
Speaker 1: four and a half.
Speaker 2: There is a ninety three and a half out there
Speaker 2: at Fox, but that's the lone one I see out there,
Speaker 2: so you can get that.
Speaker 1: That's fine, Like ninety two for me to let go, Okay,
Speaker 1: let's do this.
Speaker 2: This is so chock and I hate doing it, but
Speaker 2: I really like the over on the Potter.
Speaker 1: It's so chok.
Speaker 2: It's chalk, though, right because the numbers inflated, probably because
Speaker 2: they're like, well, the public's gonna love this. But you
Speaker 2: look at the team, Joe, It's hard for me to
Speaker 2: find holes in it. I mean the lineup up and
Speaker 2: down right, Chrisham, brilliant, Tatist, Machado, Hosmer, fam Myers, coronin Worth. Maybe,
Speaker 2: but they've got like all the little things that you
Speaker 2: look at, I'll be like, Okay, well they've also got death.
Speaker 2: They signed has and Kim excuse me, and profar Right.
Speaker 2: You look at their staff, they just basically they weren't
Speaker 2: like we're gonna rely on Dan Nelson Lamett to throw
Speaker 2: us full season. They're like, no, we're just going to
Speaker 2: trade for everybody. We've got Darvish and Snell. They added Muscrove, Paddock.
Speaker 2: You and I both kind of like as a bounce back.
Speaker 2: They've got depth, They've got a really solid bullpen. I
Speaker 2: don't know who's gonna close. I don't really think it
Speaker 2: matters if Pomerance can kind of, you know, repeat what
Speaker 2: he did. And the biggest thing, Joe, They're obviously going
Speaker 2: for it. They've got no problems with it. Despite everything
Speaker 2: they've done, they've still got a pretty elite farm system.
Speaker 2: So if they have to make a deal in the
Speaker 2: middle of the year, they can do it. It's gonna
Speaker 2: be really fun division to watch. So for me, ninety
Speaker 2: four and a half actually over is probably my favorite
Speaker 2: bet in this division.
Speaker 1: Well, the rating champs at a Trevor Bauer this offseason
Speaker 1: and their win total sits at one oh two and
Speaker 1: a half right now. I know this is gonna sound
Speaker 1: crazy to you maybe, but I think this is an
Speaker 1: over two. I think they are going to be that
Speaker 1: kind of stellar good like I think they're going now.
Speaker 1: I would try to find the number of the lowest
Speaker 1: hundreds I could find, and there are some places where
Speaker 1: it might be a little lower than the one oh
Speaker 1: two and a half. Maybe you get a one to
Speaker 1: one and a half or something like that, But one
Speaker 1: oh two and a half to me is still an
Speaker 1: over I think this is around one oh five one
Speaker 1: oh six. I don't think they're gonna get to the
Speaker 1: one to ten. But we mentioned about this division. The
Speaker 1: Diamondbacks aren't good, the Rockies aren't good. The Giants are
Speaker 1: working progress although competitive at times. Yeah, I just beg
Speaker 1: the Dodger's still the class for me in one oh
Speaker 1: two and a half, although it's a big number, I
Speaker 1: would lean towards the over here. How about you?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, Joe. I know it's chalk, but it's
Speaker 2: just to me.
Speaker 1: But you know what, there's we always talk about this
Speaker 1: on a lot of my shows in the past. Is
Speaker 1: there's good chalk. Yeah, good chalk is great. That's called
Speaker 1: a good investment. Last time I check, it's like, hey,
Speaker 1: do you want to invest in the plumbing company? Because everybody,
Speaker 1: everybody needs a toilet, you know it fixed at some point. Yes,
Speaker 1: that's a good investment. Like sometimes you just look at
Speaker 1: something and it just makes sense, and you know what,
Speaker 1: the Dodgers right now it's hard to find the downside,
Speaker 1: especially now adding another picture to a mix of already
Speaker 1: very good pitching.
Speaker 2: You're making me feel better about my investment in our
Speaker 2: local plumbing company. By the way. Yeah, that's that's the thing.
Speaker 2: There are no there's not like, how does it go
Speaker 2: wrong for this team? Like what if Bauer and Kershaw
Speaker 2: get injured? Right, like the worst case scenario? Okay, man,
Speaker 2: Like you're sitting there with like very serviceable Tony Gonsolin, right, Like,
Speaker 2: it's just they're able to survive whatever comes their way.
Speaker 2: They've got depth, they've got money, they've got a really
Speaker 2: deep bullpen. They don't just rest on their lores. Last
Speaker 2: year they were on one hundred and sixteen Whin pays man, Like,
Speaker 2: it's just it's really difficult to see this coming under
Speaker 2: even Pacoda, you know, who's kind of you know conservative
Speaker 2: there at one oh four. I agree. I know. It's
Speaker 2: like we're sitting here and we're like, I'm like over
Speaker 2: on the Padres, over on the Dodgers. I don't care
Speaker 2: like that.
Speaker 1: That is a lot like like, yeah, the Arizona Diamondbacks
Speaker 1: and you were under on i think even Colorad the Rockies. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and if that all shakes out, then you are going
Speaker 1: to have the disparity, and it does look like there's
Speaker 1: going to be a disparity. My takeaways from this show
Speaker 1: Milwaukee Brewers over yeah under excuse me, over on the
Speaker 1: Marlins on over on the Washington Nationals. Those are three
Speaker 1: where I think there's a real opportunity. And I think
Speaker 1: this is why it's a good exercise. What do you
Speaker 1: come away with as like your favorite pieces that you
Speaker 1: talked about? For you, what are your favorites in the
Speaker 1: over or under categories?
Speaker 2: For sure the Brewers that if there's one bet that
Speaker 2: I'm walking away from in this one, it is the
Speaker 2: Brewers over eighty two and a half. I think that
Speaker 2: number might rise, so I would get on it now
Speaker 2: like now basically is what I would do. I like
Speaker 2: also the uh I know it's you know, wasn't was
Speaker 2: the one that you were necessarily looking at. But I
Speaker 2: really like the Padres over ninety four and a half.
Speaker 2: I just think, again, there are so many ways for
Speaker 2: this to go right, and it has to be for me,
Speaker 2: a real disaster for it to go wrong. And I
Speaker 2: kind of like the Marlins over seventy and a half.
Speaker 2: I like you you know, it's something where you know
Speaker 2: I'm not. I don't think they're gonna compete for the division,
Speaker 2: but I do think given that the Phillies are gonna
Speaker 2: be a little weaker than I think people are giving
Speaker 2: them credit for. I like the Marlins to basically be
Speaker 2: more like a seventy three seventy four win team, and
Speaker 2: the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
Speaker 1: All right. I want to remind everybody to go to
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash MLB wins again, that's bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com slash MLB wins, and you could take a look
Speaker 1: at all the different win totals from all the different
Speaker 1: sites where you can make your wagers. When Dan and
Speaker 1: I return next time, we'll be talking about the American
Speaker 1: League team's gonna be a great fun. So that'll do
Speaker 1: it for us today, But the story of the game
Speaker 1: goes on. For Dan Harris, I'm Joe Pizabia. We'll see
Speaker 1: you next time. Kids name because