WEBVTT - The Cost of Taking Cases to Zero 0:00:04.720 --> 0:00:09.680 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two and 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:15.120 forty since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:20.079 The city of Melbourne in Australia has undergone two strict 0:00:20.200 --> 0:00:23.880 lockdowns in the last eight months. That's brought their case 0:00:23.960 --> 0:00:29.120 count to zero. But the policy isn't without some trade offs. 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:44.320 But first, here's what happened in virus News today. Early 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:49.040 study results show that the COVID nineteen vaccine, being developed 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:53.519 by Fiser and bio ent Tech, prevented more than of 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:58.880 symptomatic infections. It's the most encouraging scientific advance so far 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:04.280 in the battle against the coronavirus. The preliminary results paved 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:07.000 the way for the companies to seek an emergency use 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:12.520 authorization from regulators. They can get that if further research 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:17.520 shows the shot is also safe. If the data hold up, 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:20.680 the world may have a vital new tool to control 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:26.600 the worst pandemic in a century. Separately, the novavax vaccine 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:31.000 received a fast track designation from US regulators as the 0:01:31.080 --> 0:01:35.399 drugmaker prepares to launch a large late stage study before 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.520 the end of the month. The expedited review by the 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:42.240 US Food and Drug Administration could push the company onto 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:45.280 a shortlist of front runners in the race to bring 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:50.520 a vaccine to market. Meanwhile, the pandemic shows no signs 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:56.680 of slowing, with worldwide infections surpassing fifty million. Cases in 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.960 the US topped one hundred thousand for a fourth concert 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:04.840 of day, bringing the nation's total over the ten million mark. 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:10.320 New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said he'll reimpose some restrictions Monday, 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:14.240 after the state reported about five thousand new cases in 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:18.679 just forty eight hours today. New York City Mayor Build A. 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:22.760 Blasio said the city is coming dangerously close to a 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:31.480 second wave of the novel coronavirus. And now, for today's 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:35.400 main story, countries like the UK and France are locking 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:39.320 down amid a spike in cases. They're concerned that winter 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:43.800 will only make things worse. But if Europe and America 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:47.120 want to see an example of how well lockdowns worked 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:51.760 during colder months, they only need to look at Melbourne, Australia. 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:56.639 The country's second largest city went through two lockdowns, one 0:02:56.680 --> 0:03:00.720 of which happened during its winter. Remarkable, the city has 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:07.120 reported no new cases since late October. But at what cost? 0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:11.800 Senior editor Jason Gale has more on what the world 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:22.399 can learn from Melbourne. Melbourne's first lockdown lasted roughly from 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:25.960 March to May, and it was a success. It reduced 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:28.400 the number of cases to just a handful of day, 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:33.079 but security failures at quarantine hotels for returning overseas travelers, 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:38.320 poor communication of critical information to migrant communities, and inadequate 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:41.480 contact tracing allowed the virus to row back in the 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:48.360 southeastern state of Victoria. The second state home order was 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:51.720 only meant to last six weeks, but it turned into 0:03:51.800 --> 0:03:55.280 an almost four month affair. Yes, there's been an enormous 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:57.960 price that's been paid. There's no doubt. This is Dr 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:01.920 Terry Slavin. He's the chief executive officer the Public Health 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:06.520 Association of Australia. There's been a lot of respect and 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:09.280 regard and empathy for the people who have lived through 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:13.880 that experience. I mean the fundamentally, the withdrawal of liberties 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:18.320 is a pretty challenging thing for a whole community to 0:04:18.360 --> 0:04:21.799 go through. When the city went back into lockdown in July, 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.640 it's five million residents would only leave their home for 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:30.200 essential work and services, medical treatment, school or an hour's exercise. 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:34.480 A day, but cases continued to rise. A month later, 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:38.680 the restrictions were extended across the entire state. Melbourne was 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:42.360 placed under a nighttime curfew. Schools were closed and large 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:46.839 parts of retail, manufacturing and hospitality were shut down, and 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:50.000 the city is still counting the economic and social costs. 0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:54.240 The majority of Victorians have started at home, have followed 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:57.320 the advice and have abided by the rules, and as 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.640 a result, few people have got sick and few people 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:01.919 have died then would have otherwise been the case. And 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:04.839 while the medicine has been really tough and really hard 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:13.719 to swallow, it's done the job. The Australian government estimates 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:17.359 jobs have been lost on average a day across the 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:21.000 state of Victoria, and demand for mental health services as 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:24.960 surged by more than the spike. Key factors working in 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:28.960 Melbourne's favor including closed borders, an infection count that was 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:33.080 relatively small, and a state government with strong public backing. 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:36.880 It's still talked twice as long as anticipated to crush 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:41.760 the curve. It's a bleak reality confronting political leaders, particularly 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:45.160 in Europe. They have already experienced the damage wrought by 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:49.159 full blown lockdowns and are now introducing new measures to 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:52.440 fight a resurgence of the pandemic. In other parts of 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:56.520 the world, that same political leadership hasn't supported the expert advice. 0:05:57.240 --> 0:06:00.920 And the truth is those communities have paid the price 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:04.200 with their lives. The number of deaths that have been 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:08.680 preventable in relation to this pandemic is horrendous. And there 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:12.760 are communities that have the expertise. There are populations around 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:15.440 the world. There are countries that have the technical expertise 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:17.880 in the capacity to do exactly what Victoria has done, 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:22.920 but they haven't and that's strategic. Terry says Melbourne succeeded 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:27.400 because it's citizens worked with the government in following expert advice. 0:06:28.600 --> 0:06:33.000 I mean, the bottom line is that no police force 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:35.279 in Australia, probably no police force in the world, could 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:38.880 adequately enforce those laws if the majority of the community 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:42.760 believed it was not in the community interest. It would 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:48.440 have been impossible to meaningfully police if there wasn't community 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:51.320 support for Victoria makes up about a quarter of the 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:55.679 nation's gross domestic product and the restrictions have only deepened 0:06:55.680 --> 0:07:00.719 Australia's recession. The lockdown slashed about seventy a million U 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:04.640 S dollars a day from economic activity. Business leaders say 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:08.159 it may take years for moving to recover. The social 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:12.000 class are also mounting. Dr Cameron Lawyer is a family 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:14.400 doctor and the chair of the Victorian Faculty of the 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:18.240 Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. He says demand for 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:22.080 mental health services in Victoria jump more than thirty in 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:27.200 September and October. Mental health has been one of the 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:31.760 most striking impacts of the pandemic. We've seen a huge 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:36.120 increase in the burden of mental health throughout our communities. 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:40.080 Cameron says doctors have provided an extra seven and a 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:45.040 half million consultations during the pandemic specifically related to mental health. 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:49.200 I would suggest that's probably an under reporting and the 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:53.080 number has been higher, So that's a marker of how 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:57.160 much the community is coming to us as GPS concerned 0:07:57.200 --> 0:08:04.080 about anxiety depression for as concerns during this pandemic, says 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:07.640 two things really concern him as people are forced to 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:15.360 stay indoors, alcohol consumption and domestic violence. We've seen surveys 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:20.080 from mon Ashes School of Public Health that has seen 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:25.600 about a twenty increase in alcohol consumption throughout the pandemic, 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:29.120 and we know that the consumption of alcohol is often 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:35.280 associated with depression and anxiety, and alcohol is often one 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:40.200 of those sort of self medicating behaviors. To try and 0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:47.640 manage that, and importantly of significant concern to our community, 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:54.680 we've seen nearly ninety thousand additional family violence offenses reported 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:57.520 to the police, so that's a that's an increase in 0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:03.360 really seven percent. This has seen the highest rates of 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:14.760 family violence in the state's history. Terry Slavin says it's 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:17.480 important to remember what it talked to stop transmission of 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:21.840 the coronavirus in Melbourn. The scrambling effort to respond to 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:26.000 this pandemic has been a great success, but that doesn't 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:28.240 mean the games over. We don't even know if we're 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:31.520 at halftime it alone three quarter time. We know that 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:34.360 if we let our guard down, if there's a couple 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:39.640 of super spreader events, if we see people becoming lacks 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:43.160 with regard to the basics, the old fashioned public health, 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:47.200 the hygiene, the distancing and all arrest, and then we 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:49.160 don't pick it up in the testing. We don't do 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:52.960 the proper tracing, we don't do the quarantining and isolating, 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:56.000 we don't keep communicating with the community about the progress 0:09:56.040 --> 0:10:03.040 that's being made, then this thing can set off again. Recently, 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:05.200 the state took the day off of the Melbourne Cup 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:08.360 horse race. It was a warm spring day and people 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:11.920 hit saying Kilda Beach. Most of the beach goers weren't 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:16.880 wearing face masks like their requitee. Terry worries about residents 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:19.480 slipping back into their old habits now that the virus 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:23.280 count is down to zero. There there's a small steps 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:29.840 forward and they're legitimately celebrated, but we don't return to 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:34.840 behavior because if we do, we'll find ourselves in August 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:40.000 trouble where it comes to COVID virus. So the challenge 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:44.240 for everybody is to understand this is a long game. 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:47.120 And when you feel like you've been sprinting for the 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.440 distance of a marathon, it's understandable that you want to 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:52.679 celebrate feeling you've gotten over the line. But I'm sorry, 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:57.200 this is an ultramarathon and the truth is that the 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.200 world has changed and it's going to be sometimes time 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:03.440 before we return back to what we considered normal last year. 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:09.160 Um that's not an easy message to receive. Terry says 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:11.720 that until we have a safe and effective vaccine, we 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:15.280 have to continue managing the coronavirus with the tools we have, 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:22.120 avoiding congregate settings, keeping a physical distance, regular handwashing, and 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:43.200 wearing a face mask. That was Jason Gale, and that's 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:45.840 it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:49.199 from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit bloomberg 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:53.040 dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:56.000 please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:59.280 Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:03.640 listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:08.160 produced by Top of Foreheads, Jordan Gospoure, Magnus Henrickson and 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:13.079 me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Jason Gale. 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:17.640 Original music by Leo Sedrin. Our editors are Francesco Levi 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:22.400 and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:23.920 Thanks for listening.