1 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two and 2 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: forty since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 3 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:20,079 Speaker 1: The city of Melbourne in Australia has undergone two strict 4 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: lockdowns in the last eight months. That's brought their case 5 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: count to zero. But the policy isn't without some trade offs. 6 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: But first, here's what happened in virus News today. Early 7 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 1: study results show that the COVID nineteen vaccine, being developed 8 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 1: by Fiser and bio ent Tech, prevented more than of 9 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: symptomatic infections. It's the most encouraging scientific advance so far 10 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: in the battle against the coronavirus. The preliminary results paved 11 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: the way for the companies to seek an emergency use 12 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: authorization from regulators. They can get that if further research 13 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: shows the shot is also safe. If the data hold up, 14 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 1: the world may have a vital new tool to control 15 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: the worst pandemic in a century. Separately, the novavax vaccine 16 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: received a fast track designation from US regulators as the 17 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: drugmaker prepares to launch a large late stage study before 18 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 1: the end of the month. The expedited review by the 19 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: US Food and Drug Administration could push the company onto 20 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: a shortlist of front runners in the race to bring 21 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: a vaccine to market. Meanwhile, the pandemic shows no signs 22 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: of slowing, with worldwide infections surpassing fifty million. Cases in 23 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: the US topped one hundred thousand for a fourth concert 24 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: of day, bringing the nation's total over the ten million mark. 25 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said he'll reimpose some restrictions Monday, 26 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: after the state reported about five thousand new cases in 27 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:18,679 Speaker 1: just forty eight hours today. New York City Mayor Build A. 28 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: Blasio said the city is coming dangerously close to a 29 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: second wave of the novel coronavirus. And now, for today's 30 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: main story, countries like the UK and France are locking 31 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: down amid a spike in cases. They're concerned that winter 32 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: will only make things worse. But if Europe and America 33 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 1: want to see an example of how well lockdowns worked 34 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: during colder months, they only need to look at Melbourne, Australia. 35 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 1: The country's second largest city went through two lockdowns, one 36 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: of which happened during its winter. Remarkable, the city has 37 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: reported no new cases since late October. But at what cost? 38 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: Senior editor Jason Gale has more on what the world 39 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:22,399 Speaker 1: can learn from Melbourne. Melbourne's first lockdown lasted roughly from 40 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: March to May, and it was a success. It reduced 41 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 1: the number of cases to just a handful of day, 42 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:33,079 Speaker 1: but security failures at quarantine hotels for returning overseas travelers, 43 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: poor communication of critical information to migrant communities, and inadequate 44 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: contact tracing allowed the virus to row back in the 45 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: southeastern state of Victoria. The second state home order was 46 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: only meant to last six weeks, but it turned into 47 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: an almost four month affair. Yes, there's been an enormous 48 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 1: price that's been paid. There's no doubt. This is Dr 49 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: Terry Slavin. He's the chief executive officer the Public Health 50 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 1: Association of Australia. There's been a lot of respect and 51 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: regard and empathy for the people who have lived through 52 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: that experience. I mean the fundamentally, the withdrawal of liberties 53 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 1: is a pretty challenging thing for a whole community to 54 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:21,799 Speaker 1: go through. When the city went back into lockdown in July, 55 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: it's five million residents would only leave their home for 56 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: essential work and services, medical treatment, school or an hour's exercise. 57 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: A day, but cases continued to rise. A month later, 58 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: the restrictions were extended across the entire state. Melbourne was 59 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: placed under a nighttime curfew. Schools were closed and large 60 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 1: parts of retail, manufacturing and hospitality were shut down, and 61 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: the city is still counting the economic and social costs. 62 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: The majority of Victorians have started at home, have followed 63 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: the advice and have abided by the rules, and as 64 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 1: a result, few people have got sick and few people 65 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:01,919 Speaker 1: have died then would have otherwise been the case. And 66 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 1: while the medicine has been really tough and really hard 67 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: to swallow, it's done the job. The Australian government estimates 68 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 1: jobs have been lost on average a day across the 69 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: state of Victoria, and demand for mental health services as 70 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: surged by more than the spike. Key factors working in 71 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: Melbourne's favor including closed borders, an infection count that was 72 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: relatively small, and a state government with strong public backing. 73 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: It's still talked twice as long as anticipated to crush 74 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: the curve. It's a bleak reality confronting political leaders, particularly 75 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,160 Speaker 1: in Europe. They have already experienced the damage wrought by 76 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 1: full blown lockdowns and are now introducing new measures to 77 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 1: fight a resurgence of the pandemic. In other parts of 78 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 1: the world, that same political leadership hasn't supported the expert advice. 79 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 1: And the truth is those communities have paid the price 80 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: with their lives. The number of deaths that have been 81 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: preventable in relation to this pandemic is horrendous. And there 82 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: are communities that have the expertise. There are populations around 83 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: the world. There are countries that have the technical expertise 84 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 1: in the capacity to do exactly what Victoria has done, 85 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: but they haven't and that's strategic. Terry says Melbourne succeeded 86 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: because it's citizens worked with the government in following expert advice. 87 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: I mean, the bottom line is that no police force 88 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 1: in Australia, probably no police force in the world, could 89 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: adequately enforce those laws if the majority of the community 90 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: believed it was not in the community interest. It would 91 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 1: have been impossible to meaningfully police if there wasn't community 92 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: support for Victoria makes up about a quarter of the 93 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:55,679 Speaker 1: nation's gross domestic product and the restrictions have only deepened 94 00:06:55,680 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 1: Australia's recession. The lockdown slashed about seventy a million U 95 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: S dollars a day from economic activity. Business leaders say 96 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 1: it may take years for moving to recover. The social 97 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: class are also mounting. Dr Cameron Lawyer is a family 98 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: doctor and the chair of the Victorian Faculty of the 99 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 1: Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. He says demand for 100 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: mental health services in Victoria jump more than thirty in 101 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: September and October. Mental health has been one of the 102 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 1: most striking impacts of the pandemic. We've seen a huge 103 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: increase in the burden of mental health throughout our communities. 104 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: Cameron says doctors have provided an extra seven and a 105 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: half million consultations during the pandemic specifically related to mental health. 106 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: I would suggest that's probably an under reporting and the 107 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: number has been higher, So that's a marker of how 108 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: much the community is coming to us as GPS concerned 109 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 1: about anxiety depression for as concerns during this pandemic, says 110 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: two things really concern him as people are forced to 111 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: stay indoors, alcohol consumption and domestic violence. We've seen surveys 112 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: from mon Ashes School of Public Health that has seen 113 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: about a twenty increase in alcohol consumption throughout the pandemic, 114 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: and we know that the consumption of alcohol is often 115 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: associated with depression and anxiety, and alcohol is often one 116 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: of those sort of self medicating behaviors. To try and 117 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 1: manage that, and importantly of significant concern to our community, 118 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 1: we've seen nearly ninety thousand additional family violence offenses reported 119 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: to the police, so that's a that's an increase in 120 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: really seven percent. This has seen the highest rates of 121 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: family violence in the state's history. Terry Slavin says it's 122 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: important to remember what it talked to stop transmission of 123 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: the coronavirus in Melbourn. The scrambling effort to respond to 124 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 1: this pandemic has been a great success, but that doesn't 125 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: mean the games over. We don't even know if we're 126 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: at halftime it alone three quarter time. We know that 127 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: if we let our guard down, if there's a couple 128 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 1: of super spreader events, if we see people becoming lacks 129 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: with regard to the basics, the old fashioned public health, 130 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 1: the hygiene, the distancing and all arrest, and then we 131 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: don't pick it up in the testing. We don't do 132 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: the proper tracing, we don't do the quarantining and isolating, 133 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 1: we don't keep communicating with the community about the progress 134 00:09:56,040 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 1: that's being made, then this thing can set off again. Recently, 135 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: the state took the day off of the Melbourne Cup 136 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 1: horse race. It was a warm spring day and people 137 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: hit saying Kilda Beach. Most of the beach goers weren't 138 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: wearing face masks like their requitee. Terry worries about residents 139 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: slipping back into their old habits now that the virus 140 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: count is down to zero. There there's a small steps 141 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: forward and they're legitimately celebrated, but we don't return to 142 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 1: behavior because if we do, we'll find ourselves in August 143 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: trouble where it comes to COVID virus. So the challenge 144 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: for everybody is to understand this is a long game. 145 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: And when you feel like you've been sprinting for the 146 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 1: distance of a marathon, it's understandable that you want to 147 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 1: celebrate feeling you've gotten over the line. But I'm sorry, 148 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 1: this is an ultramarathon and the truth is that the 149 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 1: world has changed and it's going to be sometimes time 150 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,440 Speaker 1: before we return back to what we considered normal last year. 151 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: Um that's not an easy message to receive. Terry says 152 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: that until we have a safe and effective vaccine, we 153 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 1: have to continue managing the coronavirus with the tools we have, 154 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 1: avoiding congregate settings, keeping a physical distance, regular handwashing, and 155 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 1: wearing a face mask. That was Jason Gale, and that's 156 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 1: it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak 157 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:49,199 Speaker 1: from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit bloomberg 158 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 1: dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, 159 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 160 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 161 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 162 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 1: produced by Top of Foreheads, Jordan Gospoure, Magnus Henrickson and 163 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:13,079 Speaker 1: me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Jason Gale. 164 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: Original music by Leo Sedrin. Our editors are Francesco Levi 165 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 1: and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 166 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.