WEBVTT - Lanhee Chen talks to Armstorng & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>The Armstrong and Getty Show. Every time I hear this

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<v Speaker 1>song rest of my life. Thanks for ruining it for me.

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<v Speaker 1>Alan Tipper Goore and Bill and Hillary Clinton. This was

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<v Speaker 1>their song when they're running for president and just just

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<v Speaker 1>picture when they won the presidency and the nomination on

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<v Speaker 1>stage dancing around with this song. Perfectly good song. I

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<v Speaker 1>like ruin my Alan Tippergore dancing to it, one of

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<v Speaker 1>their many sins. Please welcome back to The Armstrong and

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<v Speaker 1>Getty Show. One of our faves and years. Lon Chen

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<v Speaker 1>Uh David and Diane Stephy, research fellow at the Hoover Institution,

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<v Speaker 1>Director of Domestic Policy Studies UH at Stanford University, and

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<v Speaker 1>recent guest on special Port with Brett Bear Awesome, in

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<v Speaker 1>which he equitted himself quite beautifully. LONGHI, how do you

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<v Speaker 1>like that experience? Oh? Yes, you know it's it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>a good show. It's a good show, great show. Breath

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<v Speaker 1>of very guys so enjoyed it. Yeah, and it's a

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<v Speaker 1>serious news show. And anyway, I had to be nervous

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<v Speaker 1>as held to be on that panel. But you're you're

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<v Speaker 1>an eminate man. You handle it well, so well done.

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<v Speaker 1>So listen a lot of national polls in the news recently,

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<v Speaker 1>including the one outlier that freaked people out briefly. But

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<v Speaker 1>is there any point in national polls when that's not

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<v Speaker 1>how we pick candidates in the primary system. Boy, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a great question, um, because and it's not something that

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of media talk about. You know, they spend

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of time hyperventilating over these national polls and

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<v Speaker 1>what each one means. But the polls that matter are

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<v Speaker 1>are the ones in the early states like Iowa and

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<v Speaker 1>Hampshire and Nevada. Obviously, those polls don't tend to come

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<v Speaker 1>out until we get a little closer to those to

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<v Speaker 1>those elections, and there are a few polls in those states, like,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, in Iowa, the Des Moines registered poll is

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<v Speaker 1>considered the gold standard, and that's the one we really

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<v Speaker 1>have to pay attention to it. But it's a great point.

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<v Speaker 1>The national polls at this point of the campaign are

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<v Speaker 1>relatively meaningless. Their name i de polls, you know, their

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<v Speaker 1>polls about who knows who. And that's why I you know,

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<v Speaker 1>my argument for why Biden, I think is still doing

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<v Speaker 1>relatively well is because let people know who he is.

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<v Speaker 1>He's a known commodity, he's got a little bit of

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<v Speaker 1>that Obama halo effect around him for Democratic primary voters,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's why he continues to do relatively well. I

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<v Speaker 1>have one question that I'm personally interested in the answer,

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<v Speaker 1>and I hope the listeners are too, because we've been

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<v Speaker 1>discussing this. We'll pull them do Bernie and Elizabeth occupy

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<v Speaker 1>the same territory enough that if one of them gets out,

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<v Speaker 1>the other one gets most of their supporters, as in

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<v Speaker 1>Biden usually has those two added together, and it seems

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<v Speaker 1>like if one of them got out, you'd have a

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<v Speaker 1>tie between either Bernie and Biden or Elizabeth and Biden. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the argument I've been making. I've been saying that.

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<v Speaker 1>Really for Biden, the worrisome fact is that you've got

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<v Speaker 1>a relatively high percentage of Democrats who affiliate with either

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<v Speaker 1>war And or Biden. Let's call it the far left

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<v Speaker 1>to the party. So, you know, the poll where Biden

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<v Speaker 1>was Uh was in trouble earlier this week that came

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<v Speaker 1>out from Monmouth University had essentially Warren plus uh Sanders

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<v Speaker 1>at and had Biden somewhere around. And so while I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's the case that the vast majority of Bernie's

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<v Speaker 1>support would go to Elizabeth Warren and probably vice versa. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's probably not all of them, but it's enough that

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<v Speaker 1>if I were the Biden campaign, or if I were

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<v Speaker 1>any other candidate trying to run a more moderate strategy

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<v Speaker 1>in the Democratic Party, I would be concerned about how

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<v Speaker 1>big that number is because that block is clearly the

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<v Speaker 1>ascendant block within the Democratic Party. But and when you

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<v Speaker 1>start to look at it, it's, yeah, it's it's a

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<v Speaker 1>big number. But the way they do things, as we

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<v Speaker 1>saw with Trump, all you gotta do is beat the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the people, doesn't Your number doesn't have to

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<v Speaker 1>be that big as long as you beat everybody else,

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<v Speaker 1>if everybody stays in the race. So is there going

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<v Speaker 1>to be a lot of pressure on either Bernie or

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<v Speaker 1>Elizabeth to get out? Otherwise Biden bests them both because

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<v Speaker 1>they split the They split their number, so that I

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<v Speaker 1>think there will be. But the interesting question is who

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<v Speaker 1>applies pressure to who and and who decides to bow out.

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<v Speaker 1>So far, if you'll observe from the debate by Warren

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<v Speaker 1>and Sanders have been very friendly with each other. They

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<v Speaker 1>haven't attacked each other. They've been very supportive on the

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<v Speaker 1>campaign trail, they've barely, if at all, kind of hit

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<v Speaker 1>each other, and and and so at some point in

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<v Speaker 1>the campaign, as the field narrows, and let's presume that

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<v Speaker 1>Biden and Warren and Sanders are in there for at

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<v Speaker 1>least the you know, next several months, which I think

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<v Speaker 1>is true. I think Bernie and Warren have some staying power,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think Biden does too. At some point there's

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<v Speaker 1>going to have to be an ego matchup, and someone

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<v Speaker 1>is going to have to say, look, okay, fine, it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's pretty clear that my even this is not my time.

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<v Speaker 1>And the question is do you see Bernie Sanders stepping aside?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you see Elsbeth Warren's But right now I don't

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<v Speaker 1>see either of No, So then what do they do?

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<v Speaker 1>Let me pipe in with the latest moin registered poll

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<v Speaker 1>um of the Dems, Biden has um, Bernie is in

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<v Speaker 1>second with six, and Warren really in a time at

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<v Speaker 1>that adds up to of likely caucus goers UM two,

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<v Speaker 1>Biden's twenty four. Now that doesn't mean there's no chance

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<v Speaker 1>one of them drops out, so that won't happen. But

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<v Speaker 1>I wonder if you know how a Lonnie the media

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<v Speaker 1>is number one stupid and number two, you can win

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<v Speaker 1>Iowa by a tenth of a point or even be

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<v Speaker 1>Rick Santoruman actually win, but nobody talks about it because

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<v Speaker 1>they misfigured. But the media will scream, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Biden wins Iowa. Biden wins Iowa. I Biden with moments

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<v Speaker 1>blah blah, by want by a tenth of a Boyington.

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<v Speaker 1>We're about to have the other votes. Will that be

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<v Speaker 1>the case if you got Liz and the old guy

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<v Speaker 1>Bernie with a combined thirty one percent to Biden's twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four Yeah, I mean, you don't have to win by much.

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<v Speaker 1>You just have to have to be able to claim

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<v Speaker 1>that you won. And remember that in past elections, the

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<v Speaker 1>story in Iowa has been not necessarily who wins, but

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<v Speaker 1>who finished the second or who demonstrates momentum or who

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<v Speaker 1>finishes better than expected. So there could be a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of different narratives coming out of Iowa. And you know

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<v Speaker 1>the results you mentioned there, you know, Biden, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>with maybe what was it a five or six point lead,

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<v Speaker 1>you barely have thirty seconds by the way, Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean that's not very much given the marginary error of

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<v Speaker 1>that pole. That poll probably have marginal error four or

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<v Speaker 1>five points, so we'll have to see. But the Iowa contest,

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<v Speaker 1>in my mind, is more important this cycle than in

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<v Speaker 1>any previous democratic cycle because the fields so big and

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<v Speaker 1>it's so crowded on that progressive left. So we'll have

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<v Speaker 1>to see what happened. That's interesting, yea. Indeed, Lonnie Chen

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<v Speaker 1>of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, always enlightening. Sorry for

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<v Speaker 1>the short chat today but we're a little behind, but

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for Millian, good to talk. Thanks, thank you.