Speaker 1: The Armstrong and Getty Show. Every time I hear this
Speaker 1: song rest of my life. Thanks for ruining it for me.
Speaker 1: Alan Tipper Goore and Bill and Hillary Clinton. This was
Speaker 1: their song when they're running for president and just just
Speaker 1: picture when they won the presidency and the nomination on
Speaker 1: stage dancing around with this song. Perfectly good song. I
Speaker 1: like ruin my Alan Tippergore dancing to it, one of
Speaker 1: their many sins. Please welcome back to The Armstrong and
Speaker 1: Getty Show. One of our faves and years. Lon Chen
Speaker 1: Uh David and Diane Stephy, research fellow at the Hoover Institution,
Speaker 1: Director of Domestic Policy Studies UH at Stanford University, and
Speaker 1: recent guest on special Port with Brett Bear Awesome, in
Speaker 1: which he equitted himself quite beautifully. LONGHI, how do you
Speaker 1: like that experience? Oh? Yes, you know it's it's it's
Speaker 1: a good show. It's a good show, great show. Breath
Speaker 1: of very guys so enjoyed it. Yeah, and it's a
Speaker 1: serious news show. And anyway, I had to be nervous
Speaker 1: as held to be on that panel. But you're you're
Speaker 1: an eminate man. You handle it well, so well done.
Speaker 1: So listen a lot of national polls in the news recently,
Speaker 1: including the one outlier that freaked people out briefly. But
Speaker 1: is there any point in national polls when that's not
Speaker 1: how we pick candidates in the primary system. Boy, that's
Speaker 1: a great question, um, because and it's not something that
Speaker 1: a lot of media talk about. You know, they spend
Speaker 1: a lot of time hyperventilating over these national polls and
Speaker 1: what each one means. But the polls that matter are
Speaker 1: are the ones in the early states like Iowa and
Speaker 1: Hampshire and Nevada. Obviously, those polls don't tend to come
Speaker 1: out until we get a little closer to those to
Speaker 1: those elections, and there are a few polls in those states, like,
Speaker 1: for example, in Iowa, the Des Moines registered poll is
Speaker 1: considered the gold standard, and that's the one we really
Speaker 1: have to pay attention to it. But it's a great point.
Speaker 1: The national polls at this point of the campaign are
Speaker 1: relatively meaningless. Their name i de polls, you know, their
Speaker 1: polls about who knows who. And that's why I you know,
Speaker 1: my argument for why Biden, I think is still doing
Speaker 1: relatively well is because let people know who he is.
Speaker 1: He's a known commodity, he's got a little bit of
Speaker 1: that Obama halo effect around him for Democratic primary voters,
Speaker 1: and that's why he continues to do relatively well. I
Speaker 1: have one question that I'm personally interested in the answer,
Speaker 1: and I hope the listeners are too, because we've been
Speaker 1: discussing this. We'll pull them do Bernie and Elizabeth occupy
Speaker 1: the same territory enough that if one of them gets out,
Speaker 1: the other one gets most of their supporters, as in
Speaker 1: Biden usually has those two added together, and it seems
Speaker 1: like if one of them got out, you'd have a
Speaker 1: tie between either Bernie and Biden or Elizabeth and Biden. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's the argument I've been making. I've been saying that.
Speaker 1: Really for Biden, the worrisome fact is that you've got
Speaker 1: a relatively high percentage of Democrats who affiliate with either
Speaker 1: war And or Biden. Let's call it the far left
Speaker 1: to the party. So, you know, the poll where Biden
Speaker 1: was Uh was in trouble earlier this week that came
Speaker 1: out from Monmouth University had essentially Warren plus uh Sanders
Speaker 1: at and had Biden somewhere around. And so while I
Speaker 1: think it's the case that the vast majority of Bernie's
Speaker 1: support would go to Elizabeth Warren and probably vice versa. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's probably not all of them, but it's enough that
Speaker 1: if I were the Biden campaign, or if I were
Speaker 1: any other candidate trying to run a more moderate strategy
Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party, I would be concerned about how
Speaker 1: big that number is because that block is clearly the
Speaker 1: ascendant block within the Democratic Party. But and when you
Speaker 1: start to look at it, it's, yeah, it's it's a
Speaker 1: big number. But the way they do things, as we
Speaker 1: saw with Trump, all you gotta do is beat the
Speaker 1: rest of the people, doesn't Your number doesn't have to
Speaker 1: be that big as long as you beat everybody else,
Speaker 1: if everybody stays in the race. So is there going
Speaker 1: to be a lot of pressure on either Bernie or
Speaker 1: Elizabeth to get out? Otherwise Biden bests them both because
Speaker 1: they split the They split their number, so that I
Speaker 1: think there will be. But the interesting question is who
Speaker 1: applies pressure to who and and who decides to bow out.
Speaker 1: So far, if you'll observe from the debate by Warren
Speaker 1: and Sanders have been very friendly with each other. They
Speaker 1: haven't attacked each other. They've been very supportive on the
Speaker 1: campaign trail, they've barely, if at all, kind of hit
Speaker 1: each other, and and and so at some point in
Speaker 1: the campaign, as the field narrows, and let's presume that
Speaker 1: Biden and Warren and Sanders are in there for at
Speaker 1: least the you know, next several months, which I think
Speaker 1: is true. I think Bernie and Warren have some staying power,
Speaker 1: and I think Biden does too. At some point there's
Speaker 1: going to have to be an ego matchup, and someone
Speaker 1: is going to have to say, look, okay, fine, it's
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that my even this is not my time.
Speaker 1: And the question is do you see Bernie Sanders stepping aside?
Speaker 1: Do you see Elsbeth Warren's But right now I don't
Speaker 1: see either of No, So then what do they do?
Speaker 1: Let me pipe in with the latest moin registered poll
Speaker 1: um of the Dems, Biden has um, Bernie is in
Speaker 1: second with six, and Warren really in a time at
Speaker 1: that adds up to of likely caucus goers UM two,
Speaker 1: Biden's twenty four. Now that doesn't mean there's no chance
Speaker 1: one of them drops out, so that won't happen. But
Speaker 1: I wonder if you know how a Lonnie the media
Speaker 1: is number one stupid and number two, you can win
Speaker 1: Iowa by a tenth of a point or even be
Speaker 1: Rick Santoruman actually win, but nobody talks about it because
Speaker 1: they misfigured. But the media will scream, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: Biden wins Iowa. Biden wins Iowa. I Biden with moments
Speaker 1: blah blah, by want by a tenth of a Boyington.
Speaker 1: We're about to have the other votes. Will that be
Speaker 1: the case if you got Liz and the old guy
Speaker 1: Bernie with a combined thirty one percent to Biden's twenty
Speaker 1: four Yeah, I mean, you don't have to win by much.
Speaker 1: You just have to have to be able to claim
Speaker 1: that you won. And remember that in past elections, the
Speaker 1: story in Iowa has been not necessarily who wins, but
Speaker 1: who finished the second or who demonstrates momentum or who
Speaker 1: finishes better than expected. So there could be a lot
Speaker 1: of different narratives coming out of Iowa. And you know
Speaker 1: the results you mentioned there, you know, Biden, you know,
Speaker 1: with maybe what was it a five or six point lead,
Speaker 1: you barely have thirty seconds by the way, Yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean that's not very much given the marginary error of
Speaker 1: that pole. That poll probably have marginal error four or
Speaker 1: five points, so we'll have to see. But the Iowa contest,
Speaker 1: in my mind, is more important this cycle than in
Speaker 1: any previous democratic cycle because the fields so big and
Speaker 1: it's so crowded on that progressive left. So we'll have
Speaker 1: to see what happened. That's interesting, yea. Indeed, Lonnie Chen
Speaker 1: of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, always enlightening. Sorry for
Speaker 1: the short chat today but we're a little behind, but
Speaker 1: thanks for Millian, good to talk. Thanks, thank you.