1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: The Armstrong and Getty Show. Every time I hear this 2 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,159 Speaker 1: song rest of my life. Thanks for ruining it for me. 3 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: Alan Tipper Goore and Bill and Hillary Clinton. This was 4 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: their song when they're running for president and just just 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: picture when they won the presidency and the nomination on 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: stage dancing around with this song. Perfectly good song. I 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: like ruin my Alan Tippergore dancing to it, one of 8 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: their many sins. Please welcome back to The Armstrong and 9 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: Getty Show. One of our faves and years. Lon Chen 10 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: Uh David and Diane Stephy, research fellow at the Hoover Institution, 11 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: Director of Domestic Policy Studies UH at Stanford University, and 12 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: recent guest on special Port with Brett Bear Awesome, in 13 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 1: which he equitted himself quite beautifully. LONGHI, how do you 14 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: like that experience? Oh? Yes, you know it's it's it's 15 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: a good show. It's a good show, great show. Breath 16 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: of very guys so enjoyed it. Yeah, and it's a 17 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: serious news show. And anyway, I had to be nervous 18 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: as held to be on that panel. But you're you're 19 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: an eminate man. You handle it well, so well done. 20 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: So listen a lot of national polls in the news recently, 21 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: including the one outlier that freaked people out briefly. But 22 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: is there any point in national polls when that's not 23 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: how we pick candidates in the primary system. Boy, that's 24 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: a great question, um, because and it's not something that 25 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: a lot of media talk about. You know, they spend 26 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: a lot of time hyperventilating over these national polls and 27 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 1: what each one means. But the polls that matter are 28 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: are the ones in the early states like Iowa and 29 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:43,119 Speaker 1: Hampshire and Nevada. Obviously, those polls don't tend to come 30 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: out until we get a little closer to those to 31 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: those elections, and there are a few polls in those states, like, 32 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 1: for example, in Iowa, the Des Moines registered poll is 33 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: considered the gold standard, and that's the one we really 34 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: have to pay attention to it. But it's a great point. 35 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: The national polls at this point of the campaign are 36 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: relatively meaningless. Their name i de polls, you know, their 37 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: polls about who knows who. And that's why I you know, 38 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: my argument for why Biden, I think is still doing 39 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 1: relatively well is because let people know who he is. 40 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 1: He's a known commodity, he's got a little bit of 41 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: that Obama halo effect around him for Democratic primary voters, 42 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: and that's why he continues to do relatively well. I 43 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,800 Speaker 1: have one question that I'm personally interested in the answer, 44 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: and I hope the listeners are too, because we've been 45 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: discussing this. We'll pull them do Bernie and Elizabeth occupy 46 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,639 Speaker 1: the same territory enough that if one of them gets out, 47 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,519 Speaker 1: the other one gets most of their supporters, as in 48 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 1: Biden usually has those two added together, and it seems 49 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: like if one of them got out, you'd have a 50 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: tie between either Bernie and Biden or Elizabeth and Biden. Yeah, 51 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: that's the argument I've been making. I've been saying that. 52 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,799 Speaker 1: Really for Biden, the worrisome fact is that you've got 53 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 1: a relatively high percentage of Democrats who affiliate with either 54 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 1: war And or Biden. Let's call it the far left 55 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 1: to the party. So, you know, the poll where Biden 56 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: was Uh was in trouble earlier this week that came 57 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: out from Monmouth University had essentially Warren plus uh Sanders 58 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: at and had Biden somewhere around. And so while I 59 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: think it's the case that the vast majority of Bernie's 60 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 1: support would go to Elizabeth Warren and probably vice versa. Uh, 61 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: it's probably not all of them, but it's enough that 62 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: if I were the Biden campaign, or if I were 63 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: any other candidate trying to run a more moderate strategy 64 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party, I would be concerned about how 65 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: big that number is because that block is clearly the 66 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: ascendant block within the Democratic Party. But and when you 67 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: start to look at it, it's, yeah, it's it's a 68 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: big number. But the way they do things, as we 69 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: saw with Trump, all you gotta do is beat the 70 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: rest of the people, doesn't Your number doesn't have to 71 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: be that big as long as you beat everybody else, 72 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: if everybody stays in the race. So is there going 73 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 1: to be a lot of pressure on either Bernie or 74 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: Elizabeth to get out? Otherwise Biden bests them both because 75 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: they split the They split their number, so that I 76 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: think there will be. But the interesting question is who 77 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: applies pressure to who and and who decides to bow out. 78 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: So far, if you'll observe from the debate by Warren 79 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 1: and Sanders have been very friendly with each other. They 80 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 1: haven't attacked each other. They've been very supportive on the 81 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: campaign trail, they've barely, if at all, kind of hit 82 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: each other, and and and so at some point in 83 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: the campaign, as the field narrows, and let's presume that 84 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: Biden and Warren and Sanders are in there for at 85 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 1: least the you know, next several months, which I think 86 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: is true. I think Bernie and Warren have some staying power, 87 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 1: and I think Biden does too. At some point there's 88 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: going to have to be an ego matchup, and someone 89 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: is going to have to say, look, okay, fine, it's 90 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that my even this is not my time. 91 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: And the question is do you see Bernie Sanders stepping aside? 92 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: Do you see Elsbeth Warren's But right now I don't 93 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: see either of No, So then what do they do? 94 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 1: Let me pipe in with the latest moin registered poll 95 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 1: um of the Dems, Biden has um, Bernie is in 96 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 1: second with six, and Warren really in a time at 97 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: that adds up to of likely caucus goers UM two, 98 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: Biden's twenty four. Now that doesn't mean there's no chance 99 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 1: one of them drops out, so that won't happen. But 100 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: I wonder if you know how a Lonnie the media 101 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 1: is number one stupid and number two, you can win 102 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: Iowa by a tenth of a point or even be 103 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 1: Rick Santoruman actually win, but nobody talks about it because 104 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: they misfigured. But the media will scream, uh, you know, 105 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 1: Biden wins Iowa. Biden wins Iowa. I Biden with moments 106 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 1: blah blah, by want by a tenth of a Boyington. 107 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: We're about to have the other votes. Will that be 108 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: the case if you got Liz and the old guy 109 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 1: Bernie with a combined thirty one percent to Biden's twenty 110 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: four Yeah, I mean, you don't have to win by much. 111 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 1: You just have to have to be able to claim 112 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: that you won. And remember that in past elections, the 113 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: story in Iowa has been not necessarily who wins, but 114 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: who finished the second or who demonstrates momentum or who 115 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: finishes better than expected. So there could be a lot 116 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: of different narratives coming out of Iowa. And you know 117 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 1: the results you mentioned there, you know, Biden, you know, 118 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 1: with maybe what was it a five or six point lead, 119 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: you barely have thirty seconds by the way, Yeah, I 120 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: mean that's not very much given the marginary error of 121 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: that pole. That poll probably have marginal error four or 122 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,359 Speaker 1: five points, so we'll have to see. But the Iowa contest, 123 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: in my mind, is more important this cycle than in 124 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: any previous democratic cycle because the fields so big and 125 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: it's so crowded on that progressive left. So we'll have 126 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: to see what happened. That's interesting, yea. Indeed, Lonnie Chen 127 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 1: of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, always enlightening. Sorry for 128 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 1: the short chat today but we're a little behind, but 129 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: thanks for Millian, good to talk. Thanks, thank you.