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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast pop.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go fifteen, twenty twenty five, starting

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Speaker 2: thirty five forty forty five fifty and the Kicks Block

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Speaker 2: covers football.

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Speaker 1: Laura stunned us, Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 2: Please stumble and bumble the latter turn a tatter on

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Speaker 2: the eadside, ju the lad table off the day of

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Speaker 2: the night. By my god, it's not the size of

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Speaker 2: the dog in the fighting, it's the size of the

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Speaker 2: fight in the all Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast. This is the group of five Deep Dive.

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Speaker 2: I'm Mike Calvary's joined by Duck and Duck. We are

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Speaker 2: now getting one week closer to a complete across the

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Speaker 2: board G five only conference play portion of our season,

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Speaker 2: but we're still struggling with some of these paycheck games,

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Speaker 2: these huge spreads. I'm looking forward to, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: if I don't want to put words in your mouth,

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Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to these teams being on an even

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Speaker 2: playing field in terms of nil war chests, in terms

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Speaker 2: of you know, the transfer portal and what it's done

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Speaker 2: to their program, because I mean, if anything, the month

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Speaker 2: of September has been difficult. Some of the bets that

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Speaker 2: we've nailed. We have been right by two, three, sometimes

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Speaker 2: four touchdowns, and in some of the cases it's gone

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Speaker 2: the other way because it's so difficult to talent disparity.

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Speaker 2: Stuckey has actually been talking about this the last two

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Speaker 2: weeks on BBOC Live. It can be difficult to get

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Speaker 2: in and figure out really what the differential is between

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Speaker 2: these G five teams, and particularly the teams at the

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Speaker 2: bottom rung of the G five and some of these

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Speaker 2: monster programs from the Power four that are going to

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Speaker 2: go two, three, four into their you know, their depth charts.

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Speaker 2: But at the same time, then it brings into account

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Speaker 2: the coaches. Do they want to run it up? Are

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Speaker 2: they have Kirby smart and they don't care about laying

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Speaker 2: a big number on somebody else, or are they an

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Speaker 2: absolute maniac like former G five hero Kurt Signetti who

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Speaker 2: absolutely just wants to murder Indiana State for some reason.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he was bringing Mendozes out of the woodwork.

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Speaker 2: He was shaking the Mendoza family tree and people were

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Speaker 2: falling out throwing touchdowns. So it can be so difficult

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Speaker 2: at this time year. Do you feel the same way

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Speaker 2: that I do, that you can't wait to just get

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Speaker 2: into the meat of conference season. And it kind of

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Speaker 2: brings back all the work we did in the preseason

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Speaker 2: with the conference previews, where apples to apples, we have

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Speaker 2: a better feel for where these teams should slot.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I wholeheartedly agree. It's going to be nice to

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Speaker 3: get these teams on an even playing field. It's going

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Speaker 3: to be nice to get these teams competing against teams

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Speaker 3: that are more their speed, more their talent level. Will

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Speaker 3: eliminate a lot of the blowouts. It'll be really good

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Speaker 3: to start conference play, and I'm excited to just see

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Speaker 3: how these conference races take shape. We've seen teams in

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Speaker 3: the MAC, for example, at the top of the MAC

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Speaker 3: that have played really well kind of the usual suspects

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Speaker 3: that are there. We've seen Conference USA already now turn

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Speaker 3: into a complete crapshoot where Liberty was the perennial favorite

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Speaker 3: and they are just hot garbage. And we've now seen

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Speaker 3: that league opened up to five or six other teams.

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Speaker 3: The Sun Belt looks like it's gonna be a fun

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Speaker 3: race out west, which is good for you and for

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Speaker 3: Southern miss So there's a lot to really get excited

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Speaker 3: about in G five football, and I am thrilled to

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Speaker 3: start to get it ratcheted up.

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Speaker 2: Now before we get into our best bets, the rest

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Speaker 2: of our card, our money line, underdog, everything that you've

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Speaker 2: known and loved here at the Group of five Deep Dive,

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Speaker 2: we got to get into our sounding off segments because

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Speaker 2: what you got to say. I gotta talk about UAB

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Speaker 2: for a moment, because they're definitely in podcast prison for me,

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Speaker 2: they have to go. I finally played Trent Dilfer. They

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Speaker 2: played a pretty solid first half. They opened the game

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Speaker 2: with a kickoff return for a touchdown, and in the

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Speaker 2: last two weeks fifty five first half points, second half

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Speaker 2: points zero not a nothing, goose egg Like, I don't

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Speaker 2: understand what the hell they're doing. And locker room. Every

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Speaker 2: announcer you know across the country always says, so they're

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Speaker 2: gonna get in the locker room, they're gonna scheme some

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Speaker 2: things up, they're gonna make some tweaks. I don't know

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Speaker 2: what UAB is doing. I know the barbecue is great

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Speaker 2: in the Magic City. Maybe they're just eating full racks

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Speaker 2: or ribs, kicking their feet up, entering their names into

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Speaker 2: the transfer portal on their phones because they've come out

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Speaker 2: and laid an egg back to back weeks and they're

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Speaker 2: playing Akron for Christ's sake on Saturday. Very frustrating. And

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Speaker 2: also the fact is their defense showed up in the

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Speaker 2: second half. I really just needed one more touchdown. And oh,

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Speaker 2: by the way, Finley on a two point conversion, if

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Speaker 2: he doesn't get it, then it's a five point game.

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Speaker 2: A touchdown I can cover. He goes full John Elway

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Speaker 2: from like ninety eight to ninety eight Super Bowl, just

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Speaker 2: helicoptering in from like four yards out. Where the hell

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Speaker 2: did that come from? Also, if we're sounding off hand up,

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Speaker 2: I bet on Trent Dilfer. I deserve to wear the

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Speaker 2: dunce cap, the clown makeup, Like I get it. That

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Speaker 2: was the best bet. It was the wrong call. And really,

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Speaker 2: at no point in the fourth quarter do I feel

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Speaker 2: like they were gonna cover. But I just want to

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Speaker 2: make sure that the blame still squarely lands at his feet.

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Speaker 2: I'll take a little bit of it. But how can

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Speaker 2: you score zero points in back to back weeks. I've

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Speaker 2: not seen a point differential like this, fifty five points

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Speaker 2: from first half to second half in years. I really

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Speaker 2: I can't put it together. How you can play a

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Speaker 2: minus football on offense and then an F in back

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Speaker 2: to back weeks, considering the opponents they were playing. What

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Speaker 2: are your thoughts, duck on Trent Dilfer right now? Two

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Speaker 2: and one certainly doing enough to keep his job, but

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Speaker 2: it looks like under the hood there's still all kinds

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Speaker 2: of issues.

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Speaker 3: Major issues, and really the defensive issues reared the rugby head.

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Speaker 3: You give up four touchdowns in all those yards in

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Speaker 3: the second half to Akron and really just took their

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Speaker 3: foot off the gas in the second half. I was

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Speaker 3: stunned to see it. I thought they were really going

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Speaker 3: to be able to continue what they did in the

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Speaker 3: first half, and the drive chart just was terrible, and

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Speaker 3: it almost was just that they got into this mode

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Speaker 3: where they were just trying to preserve the w and

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Speaker 3: try to get out of get out.

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Speaker 2: Of that stadium with a win.

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Speaker 3: Really a typical Trent Dilford football. We've seen him really

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Speaker 3: play meaningful snaps in the second half of games, whether

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Speaker 3: his team's ahead or whether they're getting blown out. We've

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Speaker 3: seen him kickfield goals in the second half that seem meaningless,

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Speaker 3: and he's used those moments to try to get his

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Speaker 3: team better and just saw it look a little bit

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Speaker 3: jerky in the second half against Akron. I was really

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Speaker 3: stunned to see that he really changed some of his

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Speaker 3: tendency up there.

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Speaker 2: Some don't care of you black ball me. Now you're

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Speaker 2: not targetting a player or a coach. You're going for

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Speaker 2: the referees here, the zebras, and you got a bond

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Speaker 2: to Beck.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I've seen it this season, but it was

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Speaker 3: really bad in Week three, and I just don't understand

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Speaker 3: why we see this consistent throw in the flag for

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Speaker 3: phantom holding or these crazy penalties where they're so TICKI tack.

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Speaker 3: The flags are up, Teams across the country are being

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Speaker 3: penalized more. And I can't tell you how many times

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Speaker 3: I saw that impact scoring plays four different drives in

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Speaker 3: Iowa State, Arkansas State, they took scoring plays off of

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Speaker 3: the board for the most ridiculous phantom hold or tiki

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Speaker 3: tac fowl. We saw it happen in the Utah game.

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Speaker 3: We saw it happen with Goose and Troy Costroy their

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Speaker 3: quarterback through a seventy five yard touchdown pass on the

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Speaker 3: third play of the game. It was negated by a

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Speaker 3: phantom penalty, and then Goose gets hurt two plays later,

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Speaker 3: so maybe it doesn't play out that way for Troy

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Speaker 3: and for Goose. And I mean, let's stop throwing the

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Speaker 3: flag on these tiki tag files. I mean, I want

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Speaker 3: to call the game fairly, and I want to call

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Speaker 3: it by the letter of the law. But you've got

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Speaker 3: to know it's an art to referee, and we're not

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Speaker 3: here to see you ref So keep the flag in

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Speaker 3: your pocket from time to time.

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Speaker 2: Come on now, before we get into the best Bets,

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Speaker 2: best that you're going to hear in this episode is

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Speaker 2: with that, it's time to dive in to Week four.

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Speaker 2: We've certainly cooled off, or I should say I certainly

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Speaker 2: cooled off. I went over last week oh for two

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Speaker 2: on mine. So I'm gonna let you go first here

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Speaker 2: dot Let's get the mojo going in the right direction.

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Speaker 2: Let's hopefully deliver a four and a week on our

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Speaker 2: best bets. What is your first year of Week four?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm rolling with FIU minus six. They are a

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Speaker 3: vastly improved bunch. We've seen it all come together. I

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Speaker 3: thought the pass defense did well in trying to at

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Speaker 3: least provide resistance to what FAU wanted to do offensively.

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Speaker 3: Last week. They had three interceptions in the secondary six

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Speaker 3: point seven yards per pass given up against that past

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Speaker 3: half happy attack of Zach Kittley, and they finally won

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Speaker 3: the Shoela Bowl for the first time in seven years.

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Speaker 3: I really believe that FIU is starting to put together

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Speaker 3: a bunch that's going to be live to win the conference.

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Speaker 3: And I think Delaware is out of gas after playing

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Speaker 3: at elevation in Colorado and then doubling back at home

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Speaker 3: to win that spirited former Northeastern rivalry with Connecticut that

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Speaker 3: they really wanted to get. It seems like a total

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Speaker 3: downer spot for me for Delaware this week now, traveling

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Speaker 3: to Miami. I thinkiu's defense here can really get after

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Speaker 3: it against a Delaware offensive line that's already allowed nine

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Speaker 3: sacks this season. The FIU secondary has played really well

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Speaker 3: against the competition they've lined up against. I'm thrilled by

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Speaker 3: the way all three levels of this defense are playing.

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Speaker 3: The red zone production has been exceptional. Twelve red zone

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Speaker 3: trips against FIU already this season, just allowed three touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: only given up, so they're really blowing up when it

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Speaker 3: really matters. I think we're going to see it be

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Speaker 3: a problem for Delaware here. They've got little faith in

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Speaker 3: their kicker here, So I look for Delaware if they

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Speaker 3: get down inside the twenty, they don't want to kick

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Speaker 3: field goals, and they don't believe in their field goal kicker.

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Speaker 3: He was zero for three before he sniped that field

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Speaker 3: goal to send it to overtime last week against Yukon.

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Speaker 3: I think we'll see empty possessions for the Blue Hens,

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Speaker 3: and I just think the offense is just going to

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Speaker 3: seemingly be out of gas after the last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 3: When we look at Keon Jenkins, he's played really well

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Speaker 3: for FIU seventy five percent completion percentage on his throws

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Speaker 3: last week, while showing poise in the pocket and making

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Speaker 3: really smart decisions with his feet when necessary. Keijon Owens

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Speaker 3: is running the ball well. And now you're going up

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Speaker 3: against a defense that's one hundred and eighteenth nationally in

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Speaker 3: defensive rush EPA per play. Delaware is one hundred and

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Speaker 3: twenty fifth nationally in defensive rush explosiveness surrendered, and they're

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Speaker 3: ninety first defensively in success rate. So not good. I

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Speaker 3: think Delaware is gonna be a feisty bunch this year

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Speaker 3: and a feisty up, but I think they're out of

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Speaker 3: gas this week. So I'm dropping the hammer with the Panthers.

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Speaker 3: They're going to get a big conference win at home to.

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Speaker 2: Recue the Nick Minnikuchi slander. Here on the group of

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Speaker 2: five deep dive nine total touchdowns against just one interception

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Speaker 2: this year, but we couldn't get there with the number

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Speaker 2: I needed. I certainly needed north of a touchdown. I

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Speaker 2: was hoping that this would land on ten going into

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Speaker 2: pit Bull Stadium, but at six, it's definitely a pass

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Speaker 2: for me, and I agree FIU. On the defensive side

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Speaker 2: of the ball, they put Caden belt Camp in just

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Speaker 2: a death grip. They boxed that offense in the second half,

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Speaker 2: he was throwing interceptions. Really, that performance against Penn State

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Speaker 2: was not a mirage. I know that Penn State has

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Speaker 2: some issues and Drew Aller kind of looks stuck in

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Speaker 2: the mud this year, but I FIU was a part

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Speaker 2: of that. They certainly have been coached up well, So

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Speaker 2: I agree with you. It's not a team that I

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Speaker 2: can fade on their home field. And I know it's

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Speaker 2: not necessarily one of the big theme nights at pit

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Speaker 2: Bull Stadium, but FIUs more than just a gimmicky theme

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Speaker 2: team at this point. I agree. I think they're a

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Speaker 2: live shot to potentially make it the Converce USA title game.

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Speaker 2: So a great story to follow there. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: hit my best bet here, Louisiana monroveling out west to

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Speaker 2: West Texas to take on UTEP. I'll lay the points

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Speaker 2: with the Miners laying four and a half. I'd lay

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Speaker 2: up right to the edge of a full touchdown. I

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Speaker 2: said in the preseason, our very first preview of the year.

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Speaker 2: If the quarterback position popped for UTEP and the passwork

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Speaker 2: offensive line came together, this team was going to be

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Speaker 2: a threat in the conference. Well, Malachi Nelson has been fine.

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Speaker 2: He just completed two thirds of his passes against Texas

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Speaker 2: in a no sweat cover. They were catching forty points,

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Speaker 2: only lost by seventeen, and that was all without camp Thomas,

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Speaker 2: who was out for at least a month with that

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Speaker 2: knee injury. The line play, by the way, has been passable,

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Speaker 2: not great, but they're kind of hovering around the hundreds

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Speaker 2: in terms of run walking and pass blocking per PFF.

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Speaker 2: That shows up on tape. Malachi Nelson's not running for

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Speaker 2: his life. They are able to open up some lanes,

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Speaker 2: you know, in this running game, and when you give

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Speaker 2: Shan Wilson an opportunity and some space to operate, this

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Speaker 2: kid can pop. He's averaging over eleven yards per carry

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Speaker 2: thus far this season, and I think he's going to

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Speaker 2: be able to keep it up against a Monroe defense

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Speaker 2: that is certainly not gangs against the run. Scotty Wolden's

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Speaker 2: system with Kenny Odom at wide receiver being able to

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Speaker 2: build a game plan around him, I think that's enough

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Speaker 2: for them to score a lot of points in this game.

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Speaker 2: But this play is really predicated on Ulm's offense against

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Speaker 2: UTEP's defense. And I want to hear your take on

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Speaker 2: this duck because deep diving what ULM is this year.

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Speaker 2: It was one of your first plays of the season.

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Speaker 2: I watch more than I probably should admit in mixed company,

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Speaker 2: and certainly if people want to walk away from me

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Speaker 2: at a cocktail party, hey do you want to talk

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Speaker 2: about Saint Francis against Louisiana Monroe. No one did, but

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Speaker 2: I watched like three quarters of that game, and they

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Speaker 2: stink on offense. They won that game, what twenty nine

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Speaker 2: to nothing? But since then, you know, despite playing Utah

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Speaker 2: State and Texas, UTEP is I think going to be

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Speaker 2: able to absolutely put them into a meat grinder because

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Speaker 2: tackling wise, this UTEP defense, they are first per Pro

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Speaker 2: Football Focus and top twenty in Havoc. What that says

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Speaker 2: to me is they're creating negative plays and they're not

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Speaker 2: giving you freebies. And ULM absolutely needs freebies because this

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Speaker 2: offense is not explosive, and they're just a tough watch

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Speaker 2: in terms of not only being able to protect you know,

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Speaker 2: our mensa in the past game, but just avoiding negative

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Speaker 2: plays in general. And then when they get behind the sticks,

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Speaker 2: they have to give you know, Braylan McReynolds basically either

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Speaker 2: a swing pass or something, because he's the only one

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Speaker 2: in this offense that can pop. And in terms of

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Speaker 2: him being a bell cow in handling twenty plus touches,

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Speaker 2: he's five seven, one hundred and ninety pounds, stop and wet,

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Speaker 2: so he's not somebody who I think can just take

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Speaker 2: a pounding the way that Amatt Hardy did last year.

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Speaker 2: And you see what Hardy's doing for Mazou. He was

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Speaker 2: the hard and soul of this offense. So now all

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Speaker 2: of it is sliding to our mensa. Yeah, against Alabama,

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Speaker 2: his QBR was four point two out of one hundred, Sure,

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Speaker 2: no problem. But then you will get against Saint Francis

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Speaker 2: eight point five out of one hundred. Huge problem. Six

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Speaker 2: of his last eight starts dating back to last season,

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Speaker 2: he's had qbrs of sub twenty. That's just horrific. He's inaccurate,

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Speaker 2: he holds the ball too long. That shows up in

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Speaker 2: terms of his pressure rate and the Saxony takes by

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Speaker 2: two touchdowns here, I think, you know, I never like

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Speaker 2: to get too far ahead of myself, but I think

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Speaker 2: this is a ladder potential play. I think they're going

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Speaker 2: to win by north of two touchdowns. So if you

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Speaker 2: want to go ahead and play it at seven, played

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Speaker 2: at ten, played at thirteen and a half, I think

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Speaker 2: there's value there. Am I being too rough on coach Mincent,

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Speaker 2: who we both like. We respect the guys, But last

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Speaker 2: year he was a magician. He turned Lemons into lemonade,

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Speaker 2: But a big part of it was Matt Hardy. He's

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Speaker 2: not there anymore. I think this offense is going to

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Speaker 2: fall off a cliff in the next month or so. No,

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Speaker 2: I like the play.

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Speaker 3: I already laid five with utep chop around. I think

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Speaker 3: there's some fives, there's some five and a half, there's

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Speaker 3: some six. Get the best of the number. Make sure

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Speaker 3: that you get the best up to put yourself in

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Speaker 3: the best situation possible to succeed. But you look at

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Speaker 3: UTAP after that opener against Utah State, it was like, man,

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Speaker 3: this could be a really troubling season for UTEP, and

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Speaker 3: they really rallied. The troops, got a great home win

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Speaker 3: against UT Martin and then they were in the trenches

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Speaker 3: competing with Texas for four quarters and they really showed

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Speaker 3: a lot of lafe on both sides. I think that

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Speaker 3: this is a major mismatch here where UTEP should be

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Speaker 3: able to live in the backfield. You look at Louisiana

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Speaker 3: Monroe and they're gonna ride mc reynolds at the running

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Speaker 3: back position, and it did work against Saint Francis, who

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Speaker 3: is a transitioning team down to the Division III level.

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Speaker 3: They don't have the same athletes on the field. But

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Speaker 3: it also did look so jerky for ULM at times.

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Speaker 3: They scored a couple touchdowns early, had to settle for

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Speaker 3: a ton of field goals, missed a few extra points.

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Speaker 3: It just didn't look really buttoned up, and we saw

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Speaker 3: them get blasted by Alabama, and I just don't know

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Speaker 3: that this team offensively has the talent to continue to

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Speaker 3: string drives together. UTEP has been outstanding defensively in situational

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Speaker 3: football in the red zone on third down just eleven

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Speaker 3: of forty five allowed. And now they go on the

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Speaker 3: road here to the Sun Bowl. This is going to

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Speaker 3: be just a really troubling spot here. So I love

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Speaker 3: the play. Make sure that everyone listening in get the

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Speaker 3: best of the number, put yourself in the best possible

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Speaker 3: situation to succeed. But this is absolutely one UTEP has

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Speaker 3: to have circled in red ink to get their season

360
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Speaker 3: and the winning ways for UTEP, Minor FM Nation back

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Speaker 3: on track, Minor mother f and nice.

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Speaker 2: And now your second best bet is a team total,

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Speaker 2: And I kind of jogged my memory. I was like, oh,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe, in terms of looking through the menu

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Speaker 2: before I start locking in picks, let me look at

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Speaker 2: every team total for the G five. And I just

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Speaker 2: came back to yours as my favorite one the whole

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Speaker 2: way because we got Maverick, and I think there's an

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Speaker 2: opportunity for Western Kentucky dang a huge number here in

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Speaker 2: week four. Walk me through this play and the fundamentals

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Speaker 2: of it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And I can understand if people are scared away

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Speaker 3: based on the performance against Toledo. That was such a

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Speaker 3: major spot for Toledo, a prove it spot, a revenge spot,

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Speaker 3: a spot that they really wanted to get Western Kentucky in,

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Speaker 3: and there was just nothing that the Toppers were going

377
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Speaker 3: to be able to do there. But now you get

378
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Speaker 3: Maverick and you get Western Kentucky off the buy. Nevada

379
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Speaker 3: just had an absences, gut wrenching loss at home against

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Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee. They really controlled the game, did the wolf Pack.

381
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Speaker 3: They were up thirteen to nothing with six minutes remaining

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Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter, and you get the double, the

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Speaker 3: double long drive by Nicholas Vadiado, and they score with

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Speaker 3: just a few seconds to go, make the extra point,

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Speaker 3: and bam, You're a loser. And it just has to

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00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 3: be so deflating for this Wolfpack team to now you

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Speaker 3: have to get on the road, travel across the country.

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Speaker 3: The numbers for Nevada defensively are really troubling. If you're

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Speaker 3: wanting to look at the Wolfpack here one hundred and

390
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Speaker 3: twenty second in defensive success rate. Western Kentucky is seventy

391
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Speaker 3: first in offensive success rate. You look at Nevada one

392
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Speaker 3: hundred and first nationally in finishing drives defensively, Western Kentucky

393
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Speaker 3: is thirtieth nationally in offensive finishing drives. When they get

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Speaker 3: down around the red area, they score six. One hundred

395
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Speaker 3: and eleventh is Nevada defensively and havoc secured. While Western

396
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Speaker 3: Kentucky is going to be able to protect Maverick, He's

397
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Speaker 3: going to be able to make his reads. He's going

398
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Speaker 3: to assess the defense and he's going to sling it

399
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Speaker 3: around here at home and then the kicker for me.

400
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Speaker 3: Nevada one hundred and seventh in pass play success rates surrendered.

401
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Speaker 3: They're not going to stop the pass here. Maverick's going

402
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 3: to be able to go over the top to Matthew Henry.

403
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,399
Speaker 3: They're going to dink and dunk. He'll likely throw for

404
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Speaker 3: four hundred yards. This is such a bad matchup for Nevada.

405
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Speaker 3: It's a bad travel spot that the crushing defeat to

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Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee State is just going to compound the issue.

407
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Speaker 3: I look at Maverick with a ten to one touchdown

408
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Speaker 3: to interception ratio. The Toppers are now back at home

409
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Speaker 3: where they play really well. I look for this team

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Speaker 3: to put up a massive, massive number here and we're

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Speaker 3: getting the team total at over thirty three and a half,

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Speaker 3: so I would play this, I would play an all

413
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Speaker 3: team total at thirty seven and a half at about

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Speaker 3: plus one sixty. I think we've got room to go

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Speaker 3: here and the Toppers are going to score a ton

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Speaker 3: of points this week.

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Speaker 2: For my final best bet to wrap this segment's Coastal

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Speaker 2: Carolina traveling to Mobile to take on South Alabama, theirland

419
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Speaker 2: just north of a touchdown fourteen and a half. But

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Speaker 2: before I get into my full play, you have something

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Speaker 2: to say about the total duck.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Coastal Carolina's offense has just looked so jerky.

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Speaker 3: They thirteen points against Charleston Southern. Anyone else in this

424
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Speaker 3: conference would have scored forty or fifty points against the

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Speaker 3: Charleston Southern Buccaneers, and they were struggling to convert third down.

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Speaker 3: They couldn't complete a forward pass. They've already pulled the

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Speaker 3: plug on the Morris experience and have gone to Tad Hudson,

428
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Speaker 3: and I just don't see Coastal being able to move

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Speaker 3: the ball convert third downs. They're not going to be

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Speaker 3: able to run the ball in South Alabama, who I've

431
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 3: been very impressed with in their performances competing against Tulane

432
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 3: in South Alabama. So first bet I made when I

433
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 3: saw this come out as I took the game total

434
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 3: under and I took Coastal's team total under. But I

435
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,879
Speaker 3: have a feeling that those bets are going to coincide

436
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 3: and correlate with what you like.

437
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm laying the points here with the Jags. Coastal

438
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 2: Carolina to me is the wily coyote meme where he's

439
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 2: run off the cliff, but he hadn't looked down yet.

440
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,360
Speaker 2: Year one with Jamie Chadwells, the culture of the foundation,

441
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,120
Speaker 2: a lot of his players, Tim Beck winning games. Then

442
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,640
Speaker 2: in year two he's got a losing season. Now he's

443
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 2: trying to save his job. He brought in, you know,

444
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: new coordinators. Defensive coordinator I liked, offensive coordinator Drew Hollings

445
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,719
Speaker 2: said he needed the pieces. They don't have the pieces.

446
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 2: And I think the rapid descent to the bottom of

447
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 2: the sport has begun. I don't think anything is going

448
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,879
Speaker 2: to stop it here. Each game has been worse than

449
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 2: the previous one. As you mentioned at forty eight to seven,

450
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 2: they look listless against Virginia, no fight in that game.

451
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 2: Then they score thirteen points against Charleston Southern, one of

452
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 2: the worst college football teams. You can go across anything,

453
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 2: go D two, D three, Naia, whatever you want to talk.

454
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 2: Charleston Southern belongs to that conversation at the very bottom.

455
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 2: And then they lose last week thirty eight nothing to

456
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 2: East Carolina.

457
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 1: MJ.

458
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 2: Morris, as you mentioned, got the hook. Tad Hudson comes

459
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 2: in either one of them, put them together. Zero passing touchdowns,

460
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 2: This is an air raid offense. Zero passing touchdowns and

461
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 2: six interceptions. And then South Alabama, I mean they have

462
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 2: an offense. Bishop Davenport Devin voice in the connection is real.

463
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 2: Despite playing Tulane and Auburn, who you mentioned, He's already

464
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 2: got nineteen receptions, two hundred and sixty six yards and

465
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 2: four tds. Kenrell Bullock has gone across the century mark

466
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 2: twice in three weeks, and he's going to be able

467
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: to shoulder one of the heaviest rushing loads of any

468
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 2: back in the G five. So in terms of having

469
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 2: a bell cow to rely on when they get the

470
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 2: lead and kind of to break the back and the

471
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 2: will of this shotce defense, he's the guy to do it.

472
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 2: And Major hapaway, you know, I had questions about Paul

473
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 2: Patrino and how the offense would mash together, but it's

474
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 2: humming everything that they're putting together, game planning around a

475
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 2: green offensive line. That was a big concern coming to

476
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 2: the season. We'll see if they have more issues with

477
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 2: it when they bump up into Sunbelt play and there's

478
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 2: a bit more continuity on the defensive side. You know,

479
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,360
Speaker 2: the ball that they're facing people understanding what they're trying

480
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:51,199
Speaker 2: to do schematically, are they able to get to the quarterback? Well,

481
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 2: at least here in non conference play, they've been able

482
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 2: to mix it up enough getting the ball out of

483
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 2: Davenport's hands quickly. That hasn't been an issue because when

484
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 2: you look back, I watched, you know, on two X

485
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 2: speed the fourth quarter of their game against Auburn and

486
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 2: Alburn won it with their defensive line. It was a

487
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 2: strip sack laid in the game inside their own twenty,

488
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 2: you know, with South Alabama driving to make it potentially

489
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: one score game, that's what ended up winning it. So

490
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,640
Speaker 2: generating pressure without blitzing is how you beat the South

491
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 2: Alabama team. The Shouts do not have the horses to

492
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 2: do that, So I mean, just go through you don't

493
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 2: even need to go to deep analytics of it. Coastal

494
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 2: has generated two sacks and three games. Jeremiah Johnson blitz

495
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 2: is at an average rate, which means that he's not

496
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 2: going to pull any rabbits out of his hat. He's

497
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 2: not going to come with any crazy exotic blitzes or

498
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 2: zone blitzes to try to confuse him. I just don't

499
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 2: think that they have any of the answers they need

500
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 2: to stay in this game. I think it's going to

501
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 2: be a runaway for South Alabama. So I'm going to

502
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 2: go ahead and lay the fourteen and a half any

503
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: closing thoughts on this one or potentially the ceiling for

504
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 2: South Alabama as they head into Sun Belt play.

505
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, Coastal Carolina thirteen out of forty two on third

506
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 3: down and the sacks and the negative plays that they've

507
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 3: allowed are very concerning. In this matchup, South Alabama is

508
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 3: going to be able to get home just by rushing

509
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 3: four and again, Coastal's not going to be able to

510
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 3: matriculate the ball down the field. They're not going to

511
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 3: be able to sustain possession of the ball. They've already

512
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 3: been significantly out possessioned a couple times this season, and

513
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 3: it's just so concerning when you don't score a single

514
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 3: point on ECU. EC is a good football team, but

515
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 3: their defense is not elite and you don't score a

516
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 3: single point on them. And thirteen against Charleston Southern not

517
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,400
Speaker 3: going to go well here for Coastal, and I think

518
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 3: this could be let's put it on the radar and

519
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 3: we'll bookmark this and circle back to it. But Coastal

520
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 3: might be on the fade train here weekly. This could

521
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 3: go really bad for them.

522
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 2: So last year in North Texas and Army both great

523
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 2: starts to the season. Then they meet up. Army continues

524
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 2: to march on. They go all the way, win the

525
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 2: American double digit wins, Captain America at quarterback, and North

526
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 2: Texas goes in the opposite direction. A weird game, turnovers

527
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 2: in the red zone. They're high flying, high scoring offense,

528
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 2: just with a thud, it hits the carpet and they

529
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 2: basically live, you know, to the finish line of the

530
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four season. Now they have them meeting up again. Yes,

531
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 2: there's an ugly FCS loss on Army's resume, but they

532
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 2: rebounded nicely with a huge upset against k State and

533
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 2: then North Texas is coming off one of the most

534
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 2: impressive G five beatdowns of You know, it's no longer

535
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 2: a Power four team, but they basically treated Wazoo very

536
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 2: poorly and I think it was fifty nine to ten

537
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 2: that was the final score there. So once again there's

538
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 2: huge reasons for optimism for both of these teams. A

539
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 2: huge conflict ends contrast in styles. Here take me through

540
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 2: the four minute offense of the Mean Green against the Cadets.

541
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 3: Well, we look at the bugaboo for North Texas. Over

542
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 3: the years, their offense has been high flying, but their

543
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 3: defense just could not secure stops. The improvements that have

544
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 3: been made by Skyler Cassidy in year one have been

545
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 3: stunning up to this point, and it is very real.

546
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 3: Two point seven yards per rush surrendered on defense, only

547
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 3: two hundred and thirty yards per game given up three

548
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 3: point seven yards per play. This defense is completely flying

549
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 3: to the field, flying to the football all over the field.

550
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 3: Only three red zone touchdowns surrendered this entire season. They

551
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 3: are twenty ninth in defensive success rate. The Mean Green

552
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:31,199
Speaker 3: are thirteenth in defensive EPA per play surrendered. North Texas

553
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 3: is twenty first and standard down success rate. They're good

554
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,640
Speaker 3: in the early downs, they're good on third down, they're

555
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,880
Speaker 3: good on the red zone. This defense has played very,

556
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 3: very solid. They turn you over. And now this team

557
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 3: has already seen the Army option attack. They saw it

558
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 3: last year. Was one of the only teams that was

559
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 3: able to really quarantine Army all season, the other being

560
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 3: Notre Dame, and then we saw Navy do it in

561
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 3: the Army Navy game. Due to the familiarity, but I

562
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 3: think North Texas will be prepared for this attack. I

563
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 3: think they have a relative fingerprint that they need to

564
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 3: deploy on how to stop it. And we're now seeing

565
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 3: truly Army is missing their explosivity and their punch on offense.

566
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 3: Their comeback win against Kansas State, in my opinion, says

567
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 3: a lot more about the Wildcats than it does Army.

568
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 3: I was stunned at the apathetic nature of the team.

569
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 3: Kansas State looks so dejected and up thirteen to nothing,

570
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 3: they had a chance to completely put the stranglehold on

571
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 3: Army and they didn't do it. Let's dive into Armies

572
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 3: offense real quick, just three point eight yards per rush

573
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:37,959
Speaker 3: and ninety first nationally in offensive explosiveness, this season. They

574
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 3: don't have a lot of the chunk plays, they don't

575
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 3: have the pop plays. They're really missing Bryson Daley and

576
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 3: Kanye Udo to really provide that explosiveness. It's just simply

577
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 3: not there. Seventy seventh is Army in offensive finishing drives

578
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 3: and they're ninety third in offensive success rate. When you're

579
00:27:55,680 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 3: not achieving successful plays consistently, consistently behind the sticks, you're

580
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 3: in an unfavorable down in distance, and I'm not banking

581
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 3: on Army being able to throw their way out of

582
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 3: it against this team. Now, when you look at North

583
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 3: Texas offensively, Mesta Maker has just been brilliant this season.

584
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 3: Seventy percent completion percentage, nine touchdowns, He has not thrown

585
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: an interception this season, and he doesn't make mistakes. Army

586
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 3: defensively is one hundred and fourteenth in pass play explosiveness

587
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 3: allowed and ninety fifth in pass play EPA. Army played

588
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 3: FCS Tarleton State, and Tarleton was in as bad a

589
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 3: situation as you're possibly going to get from a schedule perspective.

590
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 3: They had short rest. They were traveling back to Texas

591
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 3: from Portland. They had forty eight hours to regroup. They

592
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 3: had to double back and get on the plane. Army

593
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 3: had the lead in that game and let it get away.

594
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 3: And I don't think that Army's going to be able

595
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 3: to defend the passing attack, just like they couldn't defend

596
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 3: Tarleton's pass attack.

597
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 2: They were able.

598
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 3: Victor Cabalis was able to throw it around against Army

599
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 3: consistently for four quarters. Kansas State wasn't able to really

600
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 3: exploit Army's secondary. North Texas is absolutely going to eat

601
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 3: this back seven alive through the pass. I'm just not

602
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 3: buying it here. I took North Texas at plus three

603
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 3: on the openers. I would go back right now for

604
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 3: moneyline minus one twenty on North Texas. They are going

605
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: to win this game on the field, no points needed.

606
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 3: And I really think this is going to be a

607
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 3: springboard type of game for North Texas to win the conference,

608
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 3: or at least to get close in position to have

609
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 3: a say in what's going to happen in the American

610
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 3: Conference in late November. There's still ten to one to

611
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 3: win the league and they're still undervalue.

612
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 2: We turn now to our group of five money line.

613
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: Parlay turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

614
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 1: the money line, parlay, I'm gonna add like.

615
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: At plus one twenty five, Duck is chipping in a

616
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: big one plus two forty five. Payout's going to be

617
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 2: close seven to one. You can go ahead and shop around,

618
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 2: guess get the best numbers. Obviously, let's start with Southern

619
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 2: miss plus one twenty five in rustin taken on Louisiana Tech.

620
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 2: We all took flyers in Southern miss you know here

621
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 2: in BBOC lands any number ranging from twenty five to

622
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 2: one to forty to one to win the belt. We

623
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 2: did that because the coaching upgrades, not just the head coach,

624
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 2: specifically the coordinators Blake Anderson working with Braylan Braxon peaked

625
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 2: our interest. The defense had an opportunity to be special

626
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 2: in the secondary if everything gelled. While three games in

627
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 2: USM is two to one, they lost to Mississippi State

628
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 2: and the opener by seventeen, but that's a loss that

629
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 2: is looking like a quality loss at this point. Missisippi

630
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 2: State is now receiving votes in the eight people essentially

631
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 2: ranking them twenty ninth in the country. And after that

632
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 2: they handled Jackson State and then they dominated Appstate thirty

633
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 2: eight twenty two at home with a big game from Braxton.

634
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 2: So when I flip over to the defensive side of

635
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 2: things and I look through some of the tape, the

636
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 2: secondary I was hoping to see that I was hoping

637
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 2: would pop. They're coming off three interceptions against that state.

638
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: Now here comes an overachiever in my opinion, in LA Tech. Honestly,

639
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 2: I didn't see them playing this well this season. They

640
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 2: shut out Southeast Louisiana, they pestered LSU for four quarters

641
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 2: in a respectable twenty three to seven loss in Death Valley,

642
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 2: and then they nuked New Mexico State, who I'm pretty

643
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 2: low on, but they still beat the stuffing out of

644
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 2: them forty nine to fourteen at home. Well, when you

645
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 2: dig into the box scores, you don't have to look

646
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: far before you see some red flags. The passing game

647
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 2: is a mess. Despite an FCS opponent in New Mexico State,

648
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 2: there one hundred and twentieth in yards per game through

649
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 2: the air. If they go with Blake Baker, he's a

650
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 2: risk taker. Easy for me to say he's got an

651
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 2: eight out of thirteen point two, but the thing is

652
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 2: he's completely less than fifty percent of his attempts. No

653
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 2: big time throws yet and I like Jason Seymour. To

654
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 2: Seymour like he's going to lay a trap or two

655
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 2: for this kid because he's just not efficient. He's not

656
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 2: processing quick enough, he's not accurate enough with the ball,

657
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 2: and he's somebody who wants to push the ball downfield.

658
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: To me, that's a per recipe for an overthrow interception

659
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 2: or two. And really what he brings to the table

660
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 2: is he's a dual threat. The kid can really run.

661
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 2: But Seymour's defense did a great job bottling up a

662
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 2: Jackson State quarterback by the name of Jacobe and Morgan

663
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 2: from jack Like he at the FCS level is a

664
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: good dual threat quarterback. But if you want more evidence

665
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 2: that he knows how to do it with a mushrush

666
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 2: with QB spies, look at what he did last year

667
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 2: as Marshall's defensive coordinator. He corralled Alonza Barnett, the third

668
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 2: from James Madison. No one really did for the last

669
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 2: two months of the season last year, he threw the

670
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: shackles on Ethan Basco when he was a coastal. Didn't

671
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 2: let Kyen Jerones get going for Virginia Tech either. Only

672
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: Colton Joseph hurt him with his legs. So the fact is,

673
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: I think it's more likely than not he is going

674
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 2: to be successful with his game plan of taking away

675
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 2: the design runs and basically laying traps, not just in

676
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 2: coverage on the back end, but as I mentioned, with

677
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 2: that mush rush and some of the stunts that he's

678
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 2: going to use to be able to confuse this kid.

679
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: So he's not confident in what he's seeing and where

680
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: those rushing lanes are going to be. If you go

681
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 2: ahead with that, and you're throw in some zero coverage

682
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 2: or a single high safety and you say go ahead

683
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 2: and beat us downfield, I don't think it can consistently

684
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 2: do it. I think the wrong team is favored here

685
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 2: at the very least. I think this should be a

686
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 2: coin flip. So any plus money is a play on

687
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 2: the Golden Eagles here. I'm on USM Are you still

688
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 2: as confident as you were in the preseason about the

689
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 2: upside of Southern Mess? Yeah?

690
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 3: And I want to be clear on this too. This

691
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 3: is not just a team that we're falling in love

692
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 3: with and then blindly betting. No matter what, we're still

693
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 3: seeing significant undervalue in Southern Miss and anyone listening in

694
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 3: is probably on the app and you've seen my action

695
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 3: come through. They've seen your action come through. I bet

696
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 3: Southern Miss against Jackson State. I bet Southern Miss last week.

697
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 3: I've already put a plane on Southern Miss against the

698
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 3: number this week. We are doing that, not necessarily because

699
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 3: we've fallen in love with the team and the coach

700
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 3: and the personnel, but we're betting numbers. We're betting on

701
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 3: undervalue situations. And the disrespect for Southern Miss just continues

702
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: to be there when now they're stepping down in class,

703
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 3: they play in a stronger conference, they have better athletes.

704
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 3: Conference USA is widely regarded as the weakest of the

705
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,359
Speaker 3: group of five conferences. And I still don't have as

706
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 3: much faith in Louisiana Tech as a lot of other

707
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 3: people are starting to buy into. The offense looks so jerky.

708
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 3: They really haven't gotten it all humming together. A lot's

709
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 3: been made about the new offensive coordinator that was brought in,

710
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 3: but we're still just not seeing the high flying, sunny

711
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,280
Speaker 3: Coumby offense that he said he was going to deliver.

712
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 3: We haven't seen it during his tenure at all. And

713
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,760
Speaker 3: so I just want to be clear for people listening

714
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 3: in too, like we like this Southern Miss team. We're

715
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 3: betting them for many more reasons than just because we've

716
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 3: fallen in love with this much. So they're a good team,

717
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 3: they're undervalued. We're going to continue to play them if

718
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 3: the numbers make sense, and so I love the moneyline play.

719
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 3: It's an old rivalry. It's the black and Blue rivalry

720
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 3: with Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech. These teams don't like

721
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,320
Speaker 3: each other very much, but make no mistake about it,

722
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 3: Southern Miss is going to show up here ready to go.

723
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:04,719
Speaker 2: All right, walk me through the ECU portion of this.

724
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 2: It's a bigger swing as I mentioned at the top

725
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 2: of the segments, but there's lots of like about what

726
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 2: they're doing. They're clearly coming off, you know, a confidence

727
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 2: boosting win, winning going away thirty eight to nothing last week.

728
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 2: What needs to happen, in your opinion, for this to

729
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 2: go from a nice story hanging around in the fourth quarter,

730
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 2: got a chance to No, they're in control of this game,

731
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 2: they're going to win it, and they do win it.

732
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: What's that key elements that you need to see from

733
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 2: ECU to feel confident?

734
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 3: Well, there's a couple of things, and I'll kind of

735
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 3: get into it. I was researching ECU in the preseason,

736
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 3: and I really wanted to fall in love with the

737
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 3: Pirates as a surprise team in the American and a

738
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 3: team that could climb up and win the league. And

739
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 3: I just couldn't get there for a couple of different

740
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 3: reasons that were glaringly problematic. And it appears that ECU

741
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 3: has corrected some of those things. When you look at

742
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 3: caiten Hauser, he's been such a pleasant surprise with how

743
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,280
Speaker 3: he's throwing the football nine hundred and seventy three yards,

744
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 3: a five to one touchdown to intercept ratio, completing seventy

745
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,959
Speaker 3: two percent. They were just such a turnover machine last

746
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:06,800
Speaker 3: year and he was a big part of it. And

747
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 3: he's protecting the football, he's not playing flippantly with it.

748
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 3: They're executing in the red zone, and they're spreading the

749
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 3: ball around really nicely. Five players already have at least

750
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,760
Speaker 3: eight catches on the season. They've got plenty of capable

751
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 3: weapons here. They're converting fifty eight percent on third down.

752
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,839
Speaker 3: They are excellent when it comes to the money down

753
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 3: and extending drives and moving the sticks east Carolina is

754
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 3: really doing well to accumulate drives that see scoring chances.

755
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: The Pirates have twenty red zone attempts already this season.

756
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 3: They had nine red zone attempts last week against Coastal Carolina.

757
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 3: So I really like what I've seen from ECU. Offensively,

758
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,399
Speaker 3: they've lost Harris, their bellcow running back, and they've really

759
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 3: been able to pivot to a little bit of a

760
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 3: different style, and they've been really doing well at protecting

761
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: the football, executing on third down, and they're moving it

762
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 3: into the red zone cashing and when they do. Now

763
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 3: you look at the defense, they've been just lights out

764
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:07,439
Speaker 3: on the ground, even with the talent that they lost

765
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 3: on last year's team, surrendering just two yards per carry

766
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 3: on the entire season and only giving up thirty two

767
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 3: percent on third down. If you just go look at

768
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 3: the film from the second quarter on against North Carolina State,

769
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 3: they've been flying to the football, they've been tackling very well,

770
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 3: they're creating turnovers. It's been absolute lights out from the

771
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 3: Pirates defense. I'm very encouraged by that. You look at

772
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 3: BYU and their stats are just so skewed by who

773
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 3: this group has played. BYU has played Portland State and Stanford,

774
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 3: and I just don't think we know enough yet about

775
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 3: how good this team is to see them go across

776
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 3: the country and make them seven and a half point

777
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 3: favorites on the road here. I'm not impressed by the

778
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 3: sixty nine to nothing blowout of Portland State because they

779
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 3: just ran it up at home against a team that

780
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,720
Speaker 3: just cannot compete on that level. And we've seen Stanford

781
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 3: time and time again not be able to complete a pass.

782
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 3: BYU wants to line up and run the football, and

783
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 3: we're gonna see ECU crowd the box. They're gonna sneak

784
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 3: an extra defender into the box close to the line

785
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 3: of scrimmage. BYU is gonna have to check out of

786
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 3: it on the road, they're gonna have to throw more here.

787
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 3: And when I put on the film and I watch

788
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 3: Bachmeier hold the ball and go through his progression and

789
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 3: hold it and continue to hold it and continue to

790
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 3: hold it, it's painful.

791
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 2: It was.

792
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 3: It's just painful to watch, and it's not gonna work

793
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 3: well against this ECU team that's getting to the quarterback

794
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 3: creating negative plays. He stares down his primary target from

795
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 3: time to time, and it's gonna get BYU in some

796
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 3: major trouble when they go up against the athleticism of

797
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 3: ECU's defense here. This is a rare opportunity for ECU

798
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 3: in hosting a power for program in their building. I

799
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 3: think BYU still is significantly downgraded from the team that

800
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 3: they were last year. We'veen Rats left Dazzle now at

801
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 3: two lane, and they don't have him anymore. It's going

802
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 3: to look a little wonky here. I think ECU is

803
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 3: going to be able to torch the Koog's secondary. They

804
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 3: haven't been tested all season. Nobody's been able to even

805
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 3: complete a pass because they just those They don't have

806
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 3: the talent. The opponents didn't have the talent to throw

807
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 3: it around. ECU is really going to challenge BYU here.

808
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 3: I will not be surprised at all. If you've got

809
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 3: the app, you've seen the plus seven and a half

810
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 3: come through on ECU. I love the Pirates on the

811
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 3: money line, No quarter given. Ecuho's going to win this

812
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 3: game on the field.

813
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 2: Check out the Parlay Express account and the free award

814
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 2: winning Action Network app. We'll be posting the G five

815
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 2: money line parlay. You'll find a bunch of other fun

816
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 2: long shot bets and parlays there as well. You can

817
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 2: also find the quick slip link in the podcast and

818
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 2: video description or actionnetwork dot com slash bet now defined

819
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 2: and tail some of the bets we've discussed today in

820
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 2: our episode, including the G five money line in parlay.

821
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:02,919
Speaker 2: All right, now, time for the best of the rest.

822
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 2: We go through our two minute offenses, three plays each.

823
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:08,320
Speaker 2: All right, rush to the line here, duck, what do

824
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:08,840
Speaker 2: you have for us?

825
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 3: We're gonna stick with the FCS theme. That's been a really,

826
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 3: really fun segment. So two minute drill. Harvard opens their

827
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 3: season against Steedson. Jaden Craig is a complete dude at

828
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 3: the IVY League level at quarterback, completed sixty one percent

829
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 3: last year while throwing twenty three touchdowns to just three interceptions.

830
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 3: Harvard has two significant mismatch creators at tight end and

831
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 3: it's gonna make pass coverage a nightmare for Steedson. We

832
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 3: should see Harvard in the gun, but they're still going

833
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 3: to run some twelve personnel. They're going to run the football.

834
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 3: Steedson's special teams is very, very poor. They surrendered a

835
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,879
Speaker 3: kickoff return touchdown and a punt return touchdown last week.

836
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 3: Against UT chat Uga. I'm looking for Harvard here to

837
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:55,359
Speaker 3: create significant explosive plays in the return game that'll set

838
00:40:55,440 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 3: up short fields. Steedson had three plays last week longer

839
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 3: than ten yards, and those are the only plays that

840
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,760
Speaker 3: they the only explosiveness that they had against UT Chattanooga.

841
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 3: They're not an explosive offense. Only had eight first downs

842
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 3: and twenty nine total rushing yards and that was the

843
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 3: first FCS level opponent they had played all season. Three

844
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 3: to fifteen on third down was Stedson. It's really gonna

845
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 3: go wonky here. The projection is Harvard minus thirty. I'd

846
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 3: lay up to thirty four and a half. The Crimson

847
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 3: are going to roll next one. Everyone's dogging on Virginia Tech.

848
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:29,399
Speaker 3: They've looked terrible this season. They just fired Brett Pry,

849
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 3: the seasons in shambles, and now Wafford comes to town.

850
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 3: Virginia Tech is projected at just minus twenty six. I

851
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 3: would lay up to thirty seven and a half in

852
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 3: this spot. We know Virginia Tech is a mess. We

853
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 3: know the offense has just really looked wonky and the

854
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 3: defense couldn't get Old Dominion off of the field while

855
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 3: allowing forty nine points, and I want to lay four

856
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 3: touchdowns with with the Hokies. Am I nuts duck? Yes,

857
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 3: I am crazy, But Wofford is so bad at the

858
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 3: FCS level and they will not be able to compete here.

859
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 3: They've just they've accumulated a one hundred and eighty one

860
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 3: rushing yards in three total games on eighty one attempts,

861
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 3: has Wafford two point two yards per carry. Sixty eight

862
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 3: of those yards was on one play. They can't run

863
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 3: the football, they cannot protect the quarterback. They've rotated through

864
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,800
Speaker 3: a couple quarterbacks and it has not worked well. Just

865
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 3: forty one percent completion percentage seven of thirty nine on

866
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 3: third down. Wofford's gonna get buried here. Last one, San

867
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 3: Jose State hosts Idaho. Idaho is a good FCS team.

868
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 3: This projected line is anywhere from six and a half

869
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 3: to eight and a half. I would lay thirteen and

870
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: a half here with San Jose State, who is in

871
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 3: a major savior season spot after starting zero to two.

872
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 3: Jose's gotten off to a bad start, but they've got

873
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 3: the bye week now to retool the offense. We know

874
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 3: they've found their replacement for Nick Nash in Danny Scadero.

875
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,720
Speaker 3: He's absolutely electric two hundred and forty nine receiving yards

876
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 3: and sixteen yards per catch. We saw Idaho shred a

877
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 3: non scholarship FCS team, but when they played Wazoo and

878
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,840
Speaker 3: last week against Utah Tech, the offense just looked really wonky.

879
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 3: They can't throw the ball. They're not going to be

880
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 3: able to play catch up when they're down. San Jose

881
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 3: State is going to bury Idaho. I think they win

882
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 3: by three or four touchdowns.

883
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:13,760
Speaker 2: All right, time for my two minute drill. Let's get started.

884
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:16,360
Speaker 2: Ball State at Yukon the Huskies lay in twenty and

885
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 2: a half. This is a trust your number situation to me.

886
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 2: Ball State is a bottom ten team in the FBS.

887
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 2: They got rocks seventy three to three to start their

888
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 2: season by Purdue and Auburn, and they needed a last

889
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 2: drive stand against New Hampshire to salvage a win against

890
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 2: an FCS opponent. The running game can work. Ashley has

891
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 2: wiggle and can turn on the Jets. Kyle Kelly is

892
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 2: a very good runner, but he's essentially a wing tea quarterback.

893
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:39,359
Speaker 2: Let's call it what it is. You don't want him

894
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 2: throwing the ball more than fifteen times or it gets

895
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:45,320
Speaker 2: really hairy for the Cardinals. You know, he processes too slowly.

896
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 2: His offensive line is total shit. He takes too many sacks.

897
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,240
Speaker 2: He's already been sacked eleven times in three games this season.

898
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 2: Whereas Yukon on the other side, they should have beat

899
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:57,399
Speaker 2: Syracuse and this offense is pretty nasty. Skyler Bell will

900
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:01,919
Speaker 2: victimize this ball. State secondary second in receiving yards among

901
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 2: G five receivers if we lump Yukon into the G five,

902
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 2: three hundred and twenty two yards there already, and Finano

903
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 2: is spinning the ball like I look at him. Five tds,

904
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 2: no turnover, six big time throws, only one turnover worthy play,

905
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 2: sixty six percent completion percentage, a healthy a dot, and

906
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 2: his line is forty first and pass blocking. I think

907
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 2: this has all the makings of a forty maybe fifty

908
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:28,240
Speaker 2: point game out of Yukon. And yes, the Yukon defense

909
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:31,760
Speaker 2: got worked by Delaware, but they were super competitive against Eyracuse.

910
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 2: So taking those highs and those lows and figuring they're

911
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:35,840
Speaker 2: going to be somewhere in the middle, they're going to

912
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:37,359
Speaker 2: get some stops, they're going to get off the field,

913
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: I'll go Yukon forty five, Ball State twenty leaves Jerry

914
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:45,359
Speaker 2: Yukon all right. Next a couple letdown spots Georgia State

915
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 2: catching twenty seven and a half at Vanderbilt. We know

916
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: that Diego and Clark Lee are big game hunters. They

917
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 2: take down Alabama last year, they throw serious scares in

918
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 2: LSU and Texas. They beat the crap out of South Carolina,

919
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 2: basically ruined their season, knock sellers out. They were just

920
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 2: they looked like the more physical, vicious, ruthless, throat slash

921
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 2: kind of team out of the SEC compared to the

922
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 2: doormat they've been in previous years. But when they play

923
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,320
Speaker 2: the dregs, they go through the motions. They lost to

924
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 2: this Georgia State team last year they were tied with

925
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 2: Ball State in the fourth quarter. I think this is

926
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 2: an absolute letdown spot. And whether it's TJ. Finley or

927
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 2: Cameron Brown for Georgia State, they've looked pretty good, particularly Brown.

928
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 2: Brown I thinks he's thrown five touchdowns, zero picks. Whoever's

929
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 2: throwing the ball, they're throwing the ball to Ted Hurst,

930
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 2: who's one of the best G five wide receivers, got

931
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy five receiving yards through three games,

932
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 2: so gimme hurst to secure a backdoor cover in this game.

933
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 2: Twenty seven and a half is too many points. I

934
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 2: have this closer to three touchdowns, so they'll take the value.

935
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 2: Going to close this out with another letdown. Georgia Tech

936
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 2: coming off just an absolutely transformational win for them. All

937
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 2: of a sudden, they're in the acc driver's seat. And

938
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 2: this has been more of the same from Brent Kee

939
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 2: eleven and five against the spread as a dog, seven

940
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,239
Speaker 2: and one straight up against ranked opponents. But when you

941
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 2: look at the other set the coin fourteen and fifteen

942
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,720
Speaker 2: straight up against non ranked opponents and as a home favorite,

943
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 2: he simply treaded water against the spread four to four

944
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 2: and one against the closing number. In the past two

945
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 2: and a half seasons, Temple got humbled by OU, but

946
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 2: there's still indicators that they are a good dog. They've

947
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 2: yet to turn the ball over the season. Casey Keeler

948
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 2: last year at Sam Houston four and two as an

949
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 2: underdog with four outright upsets. He's won an FCS national championship.

950
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 2: He knows how to talk to a locker room that

951
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 2: got humbled. He went through the transition at Sam Houston,

952
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 2: they took some bad losses. They went from highs to Lowe's.

953
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 2: He kept them even keel. I love what he's doing.

954
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 2: And finally, Georgia Tech would be wise to put Haines

955
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,840
Speaker 2: King in bubble wrap. Everything's ahead of them this season.

956
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 2: The schedule is forgiving, but all goes off the rails

957
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 2: if he gets injured and they lose him for an

958
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:50,399
Speaker 2: extended period of time or God forbid a season ending injury,

959
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 2: You're going to see second and third stringers in the

960
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 2: second half of this game. I'll take the ALS plus

961
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 2: twenty four. All right, That is it for our two

962
00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 2: minute drills, which means we're going to close out this

963
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 2: episode with our song of war. No big deal. Back

964
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:05,800
Speaker 2: to back winners for me. I am now at Ducks

965
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 2: forty yard line. He's backing up. You know, maybe heals

966
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 2: on his red zone. Let's see if he can get

967
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 2: a win. I'll let him go. First year in this

968
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 2: matchup between Bowling Green and Louisville, the powerful team Land

969
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 2: just shy of four touchdowns. Twenty six is the number,

970
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 2: with UL being favored.

971
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:26,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know we're trying to find something we

972
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 3: disagree on. There wasn't a ton this weekend, but I

973
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 3: do think that Bowling Green has shown a significant amount

974
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 3: of fight in recent weeks. We saw Louisville in major,

975
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 3: major trouble against James Madison. They were being pushed around

976
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 3: in the trenches for two and a half quarters. And

977
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 3: while I don't think Bowling Green is going to do that,

978
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 3: they have had elevated quarterback play from Drew Pine and

979
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 3: the defense has been tougher than expected, holding teams to

980
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,360
Speaker 3: just three point two yards per carry on the ground

981
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:00,959
Speaker 3: and eleven out of thirty five four on third down.

982
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 3: In the second half against Cincinnati, Beg's defense forced a

983
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:09,760
Speaker 3: field goal, a fumble, another field goal, and then a touchdown,

984
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 3: but Cincinnati had to work for absolutely everything. There was

985
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 3: no freebies, there was no explosivity.

986
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 2: There was no cheapees.

987
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 3: With a conference road trip on deck and coming off

988
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 3: the buy, I could just see Louisville coming out a

989
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:28,240
Speaker 3: little sluggish, maybe going through the motions. It won't surprise

990
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 3: me at all if they pull away and win by

991
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 3: nineteen twenty two to twenty three. But I think at

992
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 3: twenty six we're getting into that territory where Bowling Green

993
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 3: is going to do enough truncating the game down, running it,

994
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:43,239
Speaker 3: using that twelve personnel and keeping it within twenty six.

995
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 2: All right, When I look at the other side of this,

996
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 2: I feel comfortable laying the number because a couple weeks

997
00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 2: ago with best bet for Me was against this same

998
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 2: mouible team. I James Massive plus fourteen and a half

999
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 2: won by the hook, but I came away super impressed

1000
00:48:56,680 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 2: with Ron English's defense. Full of disruptive athletes. They're averaging

1001
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 2: five sacks per game, which is tops in the nation,

1002
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 2: second in yards per play allowed. Best of luck, Drew Pine,

1003
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 2: Club Lubman and Wesley Bailey are going to eat your lunch.

1004
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:11,959
Speaker 2: They're going to on Cork Pine's head in this game,

1005
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:14,240
Speaker 2: and you know what's going to come, you know, spilling

1006
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:17,279
Speaker 2: out all his checkdowns. He's just filled with checkdowns because

1007
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 2: that's all that he's going to do in this game.

1008
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 2: And then on the other side of things, from a

1009
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 2: clean pocket, Miller Moss is my guy. Against James Madison.

1010
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 2: He was pressured ten times. He didn't look good. But

1011
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 2: the thing is the Dukes were able to generate that

1012
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,759
Speaker 2: with four and five man pressures and do some things

1013
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 2: on the back end. You could see him hesitating because

1014
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,279
Speaker 2: he didn't know exactly what he was looking at in

1015
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 2: some situational spots. Bowling Green to me, I know that

1016
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 2: they got some nice stops in the second half against Cincinnati,

1017
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 2: but they can't generate a ton of pressure with their

1018
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 2: front four. They only mustered three total pressures against Soresby

1019
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 2: and that Cincinnati offense, and the lesson there was they

1020
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 2: got a blitzmore, which they did against Liberty. They generated

1021
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 2: ten pressures in sacks Vasco four times. Here's the thing, though,

1022
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 2: you look at Miller Moss's entire career, when he knows

1023
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:08,320
Speaker 2: that a blitz is coming, he is a big play hitler.

1024
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 2: Like you look at his seasonal a dot against the

1025
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 2: Blitz this season fourteen point eight with two touchdowns and

1026
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,879
Speaker 2: no picks in a full sample size a full year

1027
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four USC thirteen tds, two picks against

1028
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 2: the Blitz, and it was even better in twenty twenty

1029
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:25,839
Speaker 2: three with a PFF passer grade of ninety one point

1030
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:28,320
Speaker 2: seven when facing the Blitz. So they're kind of in

1031
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 2: a dam that they do damn that they don't spot.

1032
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,839
Speaker 2: And then there's Isaac Brown, maybe the best explosive runner

1033
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:36,479
Speaker 2: in the entire country. If you have a big number

1034
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 2: to cover, you want those one play touchdowns of fifty

1035
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 2: plus yards. Brown has the highest breakaway percentage in the sport,

1036
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:45,360
Speaker 2: which means eighty four percent of his rushing yards this

1037
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:48,439
Speaker 2: season has come on runs or fifteen yards or more.

1038
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:51,399
Speaker 2: He's insanely explosive. I think that's going to get them

1039
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 2: over the hump. And when Bowling Green is down by

1040
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 2: three and four scores and they have to pass the

1041
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 2: ball and Louisville's pass rushers can just pin their ears back,

1042
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:01,879
Speaker 2: I think that's going to be bad news for Drew Pine.

1043
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,280
Speaker 2: You know, if there was a side market, an exotic

1044
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 2: market for Pine not to finish this game and for

1045
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 2: another quarterback to play at least a full quarter, this

1046
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:11,879
Speaker 2: would be the one to do it. I think he's

1047
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:13,839
Speaker 2: going to be a pinata in this game and they're

1048
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 2: going to beat the crap out of him. So that's

1049
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 2: my thought here. We'll see if I can make a

1050
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 2: three in a row here on the tug of war,

1051
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 2: and that's it for this episode, so we've done it.

1052
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 2: Another one in the books of the Group of five

1053
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:26,319
Speaker 2: deep dive under the Big Bets on campus banner. Thanks

1054
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:28,880
Speaker 2: for tuning in. As always, don't forget to download the

1055
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 2: free award winning Action Network app and leaves that five

1056
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 2: star rating and review wherever you listen to the podcast.

1057
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,319
Speaker 2: I'm going to go ahead and pick a five star

1058
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:39,839
Speaker 2: review in the next episode and give out a free

1059
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 2: ten dollars future And remember, if you'd like to tail

1060
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:44,440
Speaker 2: some of the best that we talked about in today's episode,

1061
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 2: look for the quick slip link in the episode description.

1062
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 2: You can also go to actionnetwork dot com slash bet

1063
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 2: now to find those as well. If you haven't already,

1064
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 2: please subscribe to our YouTube channel search for BBOC and

1065
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 2: youl access to all of our college football content. Some

1066
00:51:57,680 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 2: of it actually comes out earlier then it'll come to

1067
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,280
Speaker 2: your pote cast feed. So if you're always in search

1068
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