WEBVTT - Top 3 Monday Betting Picks | MLB Best Bets for July 20

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<v Speaker 1>Good Monday morning, everybody.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to a new week and a new episode of

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<v Speaker 2>the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perelz. You guys

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<v Speaker 2>can follow me across all of my socials at Sports

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<v Speaker 2>Talk Matt and we go back to back winning days

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<v Speaker 2>on Saturday and Sunday.

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<v Speaker 1>We end the week.

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<v Speaker 2>It was a losing week, but we do end the

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<v Speaker 2>week on a good note with back to back winning days.

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<v Speaker 2>If you were on the Discord channel, which you should

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<v Speaker 2>be on, that's where I told you about Game one

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<v Speaker 2>versus Game two. I wanted to fade Cam and I

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<v Speaker 2>wanted to back Yamamoto. That was Game one that got

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<v Speaker 2>flipped on me. So that was a mistake on the video.

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<v Speaker 2>But on the Discord channel, I said, hey, look at

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<v Speaker 2>we're betting game one, not Game two. Game one gets

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<v Speaker 2>to be a win for the Dodgers. Game two they

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<v Speaker 2>lost two to one. So hopefully you got there. That's

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<v Speaker 2>why bettingpros dot Com slash chat is a great place

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<v Speaker 2>to be with. There are about seventy nine thousand of

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<v Speaker 2>you that are on our Discord channel, so I know

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<v Speaker 2>most of you did see that, but just that's why

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<v Speaker 2>this exists. Because if things break or things happen before

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<v Speaker 2>or after the podcast comes out. I can alert you

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<v Speaker 2>guys saying, hey, look at this is the bet blah

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<v Speaker 2>blah blah, so Dodger's money line.

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<v Speaker 1>The Spain win does not come in.

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<v Speaker 2>Argentina loses, Spain wins one nothing, but the under comes

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<v Speaker 2>in easily one nothing win for Spain. So a two

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<v Speaker 2>and one day for us on Saturday, a two and

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<v Speaker 2>one day for us on Sunday. As we head into

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<v Speaker 2>a Monday, it has been a bad month and that

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<v Speaker 2>has unfortunately put us into a little bit of a

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<v Speaker 2>hole here. More than a little bit of a hole.

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<v Speaker 2>We're back over twenty units down for the year. So

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<v Speaker 2>we got to get roll in here a little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>We got to start to pick up the pace and

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<v Speaker 2>get ourselves roll in here. I'm hopefully we can get

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<v Speaker 2>you know, have a winning August and then head into

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<v Speaker 2>football season and really start to knuckle down and start

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<v Speaker 2>to make some moves. I haven't really come up with

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<v Speaker 2>my betting star yet for the fall. I have thought

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<v Speaker 2>about being a bit more aggressive this fall. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>we've never as this podcast has progressed. If you guys

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<v Speaker 2>are remembering, this is now now, this sixty year of

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<v Speaker 2>the podcast in the year seven where I used to

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<v Speaker 2>flat wager, like, I used to bet just one unit

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<v Speaker 2>all the time, and that prevented us from having really

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<v Speaker 2>big losing streaks. But what it also prevented was any

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<v Speaker 2>winning streaks to get out of that hole. So, because

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<v Speaker 2>if you're flat wager, if you're unfamiliar flat wager, it's

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<v Speaker 2>one unit every time. So if you're laying one fifty

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<v Speaker 2>and you lay one unit, you win a half a unit. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>So instead of laying one point five to win one,

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<v Speaker 2>you lay one to win point five. Well that's great

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<v Speaker 2>when you lose because you're only losing one unit. So

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<v Speaker 2>I was being very risk cautious, and by doing that,

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<v Speaker 2>I never got myself really into a huge winning year.

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<v Speaker 2>So like in twenty three, we won, In twenty four,

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<v Speaker 2>we lost, in twenty five, we won, in twenty six,

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<v Speaker 2>we're currently down. That's been the ebb and flow of

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<v Speaker 2>this podcast, right, and it's just been the ups and

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<v Speaker 2>the downs. As I've always said, I don't have winning

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<v Speaker 2>days every day, and I'm winning weeks every day. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't have winning months every month, and I don't have

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<v Speaker 2>every winning year either. Okay, this is just an up

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<v Speaker 2>and down. You got to see what I'm wagering. I

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<v Speaker 2>tell you what I think, and you guys can use

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<v Speaker 2>it to your own advantage, fade, follow, do whatever you

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<v Speaker 2>want with it. That's the purpose of the podcast. So

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know. I haven't come up with the Fall yet.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm still kind of figuring out what do I want

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<v Speaker 2>to be aggressive in fall do. We haven't done two

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<v Speaker 2>unit bets in a long time. I mean, we haven't

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<v Speaker 2>done that consistently. And I've thought about having one bet

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<v Speaker 2>a day where we bet two units on and like,

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<v Speaker 2>let's see what the record is the hard rock of

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<v Speaker 2>the hard rock bet of the day is kind of

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<v Speaker 2>like that. But I've always said I like the bets

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<v Speaker 2>the same. Every bet I like the same. Somebody says

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<v Speaker 2>you need to be a mass what your favorite play.

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<v Speaker 1>Of the day. I don't know. I like them all

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<v Speaker 1>the same. I don't know.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe there will be a couple of days where I

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<v Speaker 2>will have a special play. Well, I will like it

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<v Speaker 2>more than others and I will feel more confident and

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<v Speaker 2>I maybe I don't do it every day, but maybe

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<v Speaker 2>I bring out and I'll call it something I've thought

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<v Speaker 2>about using, like a two unit play. The day, like

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<v Speaker 2>something where we come up with it and be like, Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>not every day, but on certain days, I like this number,

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<v Speaker 2>I like this bet, I like this this opportunity, and

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<v Speaker 2>we fire on it that may be coming. So just

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<v Speaker 2>a little tease as to what might be happening, what

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<v Speaker 2>might be coming down the pike in the future for

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<v Speaker 2>us when it comes to fall. And that's how I'm

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<v Speaker 2>going to try to attack the deficit and say, Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>hopefully we can get hot, we can have a couple

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<v Speaker 2>of big weeks. I mean, I know twenty unit sounds

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<v Speaker 2>like a lot, but it really isn't when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to the futures and it comes to how we bet,

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<v Speaker 2>and like, we've made.

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<v Speaker 1>That up before pretty easily.

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<v Speaker 2>So I don't think in the history of this podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't remember since we've been tracking it.

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<v Speaker 1>I know we have not had back to back winning years.

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<v Speaker 1>I know that.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know if in twenty two twenty one, if

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<v Speaker 2>we won in twenty two, I don't remember. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think we went back that far. And then I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think we tracked in twenty one. Really, I think we

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<v Speaker 2>tracked it, but we didn't track it on a spreadsheet

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<v Speaker 2>like we do now. So I don't know about the

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<v Speaker 2>record for twenty one, for twenty or for twenty one.

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<v Speaker 1>Twenty was only half a year.

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<v Speaker 2>It was July twenty twenty when we started, so I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know about twenty twenty one, twenty two.

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<v Speaker 1>I I don't really remember. It was a while ago.

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<v Speaker 2>But I do know we have records from twenty three,

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<v Speaker 2>twenty four to twenty five and twenty six. So that's

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<v Speaker 2>where we've gone. We've pingpong back and forth, winning the losing.

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<v Speaker 2>That's just the way the nature of this thing has

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<v Speaker 2>gone and how this podcast has gone. Got three baseball

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<v Speaker 2>bets for us coming up here for today, but before

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<v Speaker 2>we do that, reminder of the betting systems where this

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<v Speaker 2>is a data backed betting trend opportunity you have with

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<v Speaker 2>the Betting Pros app and on bettingpros dot com. It

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<v Speaker 2>has a transparent win percentage and an ROI you can

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<v Speaker 2>tail upcoming bets easily. There are twenty seven thousand systems

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<v Speaker 2>and growing there are even more, so you guys can

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<v Speaker 2>jump in on betting systems with us. We've got just

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<v Speaker 2>one of the many tools we have available here with

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<v Speaker 2>Betting Pros Premium for you on the app and on

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<v Speaker 2>Betting pros dot Com. Let's start with the Phillies and

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<v Speaker 2>Christopher Sanchez. And yes, I know Christopher Sanchez pitching against

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<v Speaker 2>the Dodgers today, but Christopher Centres at home has a

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<v Speaker 2>seven to one record, a point eight six ERA, a

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<v Speaker 2>one point eighty eight batting average against only seven earned

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<v Speaker 2>runs in seventy three to the third innings worth of work.

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<v Speaker 1>He has been awesome.

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<v Speaker 2>He did take the loss in the All Star Game,

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<v Speaker 2>where he got hit up pretty good in the first

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<v Speaker 2>inning gave up three runs. But before that he pitched

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<v Speaker 2>against the Tigers on the road. He went seven gave

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<v Speaker 2>up two earned runs in a four to two win.

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<v Speaker 2>The loss to the Royals on the road was brutal,

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<v Speaker 2>but at home, Sanchez has been tremendous. Beat the Pirates

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<v Speaker 2>ate nothing. He went seven innings, no earned runs. Beat

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<v Speaker 2>the Mets fifteen to three. He went six innings, one

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<v Speaker 2>earned run. I totally understand this is the Dodgers, but

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<v Speaker 2>given the fact that Otawni is not Hunterson healthy and

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<v Speaker 2>they just took two of three against the Yankees, they

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<v Speaker 2>lost yesterday. The throwing and Shehan a guy who has

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<v Speaker 2>lost the majority of the games. He has started recently.

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<v Speaker 2>In fact, in the month of June, the Dodgers went

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<v Speaker 2>one in four in games started by Emmett she Hen,

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<v Speaker 2>and in July they are zero to two in games

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<v Speaker 2>started against Actually they've started by Emmett she Hen. He's

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<v Speaker 2>given up only three earned runs in nine and two

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<v Speaker 2>thirds innings worth of work. But he's getting put up.

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<v Speaker 1>Against the best pitchers for the other team.

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<v Speaker 2>Five to three loss to the Diamondbacks, five to two

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<v Speaker 2>loss to the Padres. We're going to back Christopher Sanchez

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<v Speaker 2>here today and we're gonna take Christopher Sanchez on the

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<v Speaker 2>money line at mass one thirty six phillies to beat

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<v Speaker 2>the Dodgers at one thirty six for one point three

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<v Speaker 2>six units. We go to the Pirates and the Yankees

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<v Speaker 2>coming up here for today, and it's our guy, Braxton

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<v Speaker 2>Ashcroft Craft when he pitches one the Padres. Is that

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<v Speaker 2>the Pirates brother are five to oho in his last

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<v Speaker 2>five games. They win when he pitches, but they've won

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<v Speaker 2>seven to six, seven to one, eleven, seven eleven to

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<v Speaker 2>one in twelve four outstanding run support coming for Brexton

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<v Speaker 2>actually Ashcraft for the Pirates. He's just been given a

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<v Speaker 2>ton of opportunities The Pirates just took two of three

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<v Speaker 2>from the Guardians, the Yankees losing two of three to

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<v Speaker 2>the Dodgers. Ryan Weathers goes today for the Yankees. He

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<v Speaker 2>has been okay at home, not outstanding. He gave up

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<v Speaker 2>four earned runs in four innings against the Twins in

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<v Speaker 2>his last start on Sunday, the fifth of July, a

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<v Speaker 2>six to one loss to the Twins.

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<v Speaker 1>He gave up two.

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<v Speaker 2>Earned runs in one and a third innings worth of

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<v Speaker 2>work up against the Detroit Tigers in a seven to

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<v Speaker 2>three loss. Here, I think we get offense on both sides.

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<v Speaker 2>Ryan Weathers has a four point one ERA and a

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<v Speaker 2>two to five record at home this year and a

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<v Speaker 2>two sixty two opposing batting average. He's given up ten

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<v Speaker 2>home runs at home twenty seven earned in fifty nine

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<v Speaker 2>and third innings worth of work.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's keep the bats hot.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't mind a Pirate's money line play for today,

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<v Speaker 2>but let's go with the over for the Pirates and

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<v Speaker 2>the Yankees over seven and a half at one point

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<v Speaker 2>two units. That seven and a half has to do

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<v Speaker 2>with the Yankees offense, not the Pirates offense, which is unbelievable.

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<v Speaker 2>But let's go over seven and a half for the

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<v Speaker 2>Pirates and the Yankees. The Daily Juice podcast is being

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<v Speaker 2>brought to you by our friends at hard Rock bet.

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<v Speaker 2>So some people call this time a slow period. Some

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<v Speaker 2>people wait until football season to get involved, but hard

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<v Speaker 2>Rock bet they call it baseball season. There is a

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<v Speaker 2>full slate almost every single day for you to bet

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<v Speaker 2>on with your favorite teams, favorite players, building out same

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<v Speaker 2>game parlays, or other things, even live wagering from the

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<v Speaker 2>first pitch to the final out. However way you like

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<v Speaker 2>to ball, hard Rock Bets got you covered here during

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<v Speaker 2>July and the month of August. If you think baseball's

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<v Speaker 2>too slow, think again. We've talked about this on the podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>The average first inning last just seventeen minutes, making it

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<v Speaker 2>a fast bet with a yr fee or a nerfee

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<v Speaker 2>that's yes for a run of the first inning or

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<v Speaker 2>no for a run of the first inning. You could

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<v Speaker 2>even parlay first inning bets for an even bigger potential

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<v Speaker 2>payout with hard Rock bet. So. If you're ready to

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<v Speaker 2>step into the dotter's bucks, sign up with hard Rock

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<v Speaker 2>Bet today and place a five dollars bet. If it wins,

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<v Speaker 2>you'll get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

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<v Speaker 2>on top of your winnings. That's one point fifty into

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<v Speaker 2>your account. So download hard Rock bet in Swing for

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<v Speaker 2>the Fences two day, one more bet for us here

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<v Speaker 2>in Major League Baseball, and we go to the Brewers

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<v Speaker 2>in Jacob Miserowski on the mound for the first time

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<v Speaker 2>to start the second half of this season. He did

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<v Speaker 2>not pitch in the All Star Game. Jacob Miserowski at

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<v Speaker 2>home this year has a five to one record, has

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<v Speaker 2>a one point five to nine ERA, has a one

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<v Speaker 2>fifty three opposing betting average. He's given up eleven earned

0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:48.880
<v Speaker 2>runs in sixty two and a third innings worth of work.

0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:52.120
<v Speaker 2>And what's wild is that he's given up seven home runs.

0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:55.680
<v Speaker 2>Seven of the eleven earned runs have been hit on

0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:58.679
<v Speaker 2>home runs. Okay, this guy does not get hit hard

0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:01.320
<v Speaker 2>at home. If he does, it leaves the ballpark, but

0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:04.320
<v Speaker 2>it does not really injure him long term.

0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:06.600
<v Speaker 1>His last home start was bad.

0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:09.240
<v Speaker 2>He went five, gave up five in a seven to

0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:11.520
<v Speaker 2>two loss to the Reds, but before that against the

0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:13.800
<v Speaker 2>Cubs a six to two win, went six, gave up

0:11:13.800 --> 0:11:16.320
<v Speaker 2>one earned run. Against the Phillies, he won a complete

0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.400
<v Speaker 2>game shutout for a six to nothing win against the

0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:22.640
<v Speaker 2>Saint Louis Cardinals seven innings, one earned run.

0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:25.319
<v Speaker 1>You get the GISTs here at home, he.

0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:28.640
<v Speaker 2>Wins on the run lined, he wins and wins by

0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.480
<v Speaker 2>more than one run. Let's get a bounce back after

0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:33.920
<v Speaker 2>the loss to the Reds seven to two in his

0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:39.160
<v Speaker 2>last home start. Let's take Jacob Mizarowski and this Brewers team.

0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:42.040
<v Speaker 2>They're facing the Mets, who are twenty one and thirty

0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:44.840
<v Speaker 2>on the road, and Freddy Peralta is going on the

0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:48.120
<v Speaker 2>other side. The Mets have lost four of the last

0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:51.120
<v Speaker 2>five games, in five of the last seven games started

0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:53.840
<v Speaker 2>by Freddy Peralta on the road, he is a five

0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:56.560
<v Speaker 2>point five to eight ERA, a two to four mark

0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:59.560
<v Speaker 2>and opposing betting average of two eighty three twenty five

0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:02.720
<v Speaker 2>earned run in forteen a third innings worth of work

0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:06.920
<v Speaker 2>here for him for nothing, nine to three. Last two

0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:10.040
<v Speaker 2>games that the Mets have lost with pra Alta on

0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.600
<v Speaker 2>the mound, they have lost by more than one run.

0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:16.320
<v Speaker 2>In fact, it's been three at the last four losses

0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:18.800
<v Speaker 2>have been by more than one run. Coming up here

0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:22.960
<v Speaker 2>for today, we're going with the run line for the Brewers.

0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:27.120
<v Speaker 2>It's even money coming up here coming for that. By

0:12:27.160 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 2>the way, my other show, Pushing the Odds, is off today.

0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:31.880
<v Speaker 2>I have something to do with my family that i

0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:33.640
<v Speaker 2>have to be attending with, so I'm not going to

0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:35.480
<v Speaker 2>be able to be on the air today for Pushing

0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:35.960
<v Speaker 2>the Odds.

0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:38.200
<v Speaker 1>So no PTO today at eleven o'clock Eastern.

0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:41.400
<v Speaker 2>Back tomorrow Tuesday for eleven o'clock Eastern and Kishi go

0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:43.319
<v Speaker 2>over there looking for me, like where's matt He did

0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 2>the Daily Juice, but.

0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 1>No Pushing the Odds today.

0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:48.880
<v Speaker 2>Pushing the Odds will come back tomorrow for me and

0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:52.319
<v Speaker 2>the show, So eleven am tomorrow Tuesday will be joined,

0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:53.960
<v Speaker 2>by the way, by Matthew Boyer.

0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:57.440
<v Speaker 1>He is Otani's bookie. He will be on.

0:12:57.520 --> 0:12:59.960
<v Speaker 2>He's the author of the new book about his whole

0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.640
<v Speaker 2>life about everything going on. I'm gonna I think it's

0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:05.559
<v Speaker 2>controlling Chaos is the name of the book I think

0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:06.360
<v Speaker 2>he has written.

0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:07.240
<v Speaker 1>We'll do it all on the show.

0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:09.640
<v Speaker 2>But he'll join us tomorrow on the show talking about

0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:12.320
<v Speaker 2>a Taani book making for celebrities and everything else. So

0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:16.320
<v Speaker 2>Matthew Boyer tomorrow convicted bookie guy went to jail. He

0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.400
<v Speaker 2>will join us coming up tomorrow on the program. At

0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:20.800
<v Speaker 2>eleven am, or he'll be on eleven thirty but eleven

0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:21.560
<v Speaker 2>o'clock tomorrow.

0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.559
<v Speaker 1>For PTO Today.

0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:26.440
<v Speaker 2>We're going with the Brewers on the run line even money,

0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.120
<v Speaker 2>the Pirates of the Yankees over seven and a half

0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.440
<v Speaker 2>in the Phillies on the money line at minus one

0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:34.400
<v Speaker 2>thirty six for one point three six units.

0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:35.240
<v Speaker 1>Mina is Matt Paroli.

0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.320
<v Speaker 2>You guys involve me across all my socials at Sports

0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 2>Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:52.680
<v Speaker 1>It is the Daily Juice