WEBVTT - Difficult Decisions Ahead

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Vanniy Quinn. UK markets

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<v Speaker 1>stabilized this week after Richie Soon I moved into Number

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<v Speaker 1>ten Downing Street and appointed a cabinet. I will place

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<v Speaker 1>economic stability and confidence at the heart of this government's agenda.

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<v Speaker 1>This will mean difficult decisions to come. I spoke with

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Opinions Adrian Waldridge on what to expect. So, Adrian,

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<v Speaker 1>the f t S opinion page is questioning so next competence,

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<v Speaker 1>and I wonder what you think about that he was

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<v Speaker 1>chancellor under Morris Johnson and maybe embrace policies he didn't

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<v Speaker 1>particularly believe in. Does he do a you turn now

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<v Speaker 1>and go back to things like small state policies for example.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that the question is competence is very questionable.

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<v Speaker 1>I think he's been extremely competent in every single job

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<v Speaker 1>that he's done. And even when he was working for Boris,

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<v Speaker 1>he may have overspent a little bit and he may

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<v Speaker 1>have undertaxed a little bit. Actually, I mean there is

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<v Speaker 1>a problem with the balancing of the books, but that's

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<v Speaker 1>more because Boris was edging him in or pushing him

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<v Speaker 1>in that direction, and he ultimately resigned from his job

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<v Speaker 1>preside it because he disagreed with Boris on questions of spending.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think he's a competent person, and he has

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<v Speaker 1>a very competent person next door in number eleven as

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<v Speaker 1>his chance to the form of Jeremy Hunt. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think my presumption would be competent rather than incompetence. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>are we looking at austerity for written now? Though, as

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<v Speaker 1>a way of getting inflation under control? I think we're

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<v Speaker 1>moving towards a position of austerity, not out of choice

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<v Speaker 1>but out of necessity party because we have to get

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<v Speaker 1>inflation under control, and partly because we have this enormous

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<v Speaker 1>black hole at the heart of the economy which we

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<v Speaker 1>need to deal with. So we have a period of

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<v Speaker 1>writing taxes and squeezed expenditure which will produce a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of austerity. But this is not elective austerity in the

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<v Speaker 1>way that we had under David Cameron and Osborne, when

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<v Speaker 1>we could have had a more expansionary policy. I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's absolutely necessary austerity because without it we will lose

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<v Speaker 1>the confidence of the markets, you know, restore the confidence

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<v Speaker 1>of the markets. We have to try very hard to

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<v Speaker 1>live within our means well exactly now, So far guilty.

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<v Speaker 1>Heels are back at pre mini budget levels. The pounders

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<v Speaker 1>around one is all calm or is the market just

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<v Speaker 1>waiting to see what he unveils. I think the presumption

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<v Speaker 1>is that the market will be pretty calm. I think

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<v Speaker 1>they have a lot of confidence in Sunac, they have

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of confidence in Jeremy Hunts, and beneath that,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they will tend to be confident rather than

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<v Speaker 1>lacking in confidence. In the British economy. It took a

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<v Speaker 1>lot to shape the markets. You know, in the British

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<v Speaker 1>Coldom we had Boris with his very chaotic leadership and

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<v Speaker 1>people the markets basically accepted that. Then we had, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>this extraordinary event with Liz Trust and quasi quatly camacasi budgets,

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<v Speaker 1>and that did shape the markets. But I think they

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<v Speaker 1>will be happy with this mixture. And it's not just

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<v Speaker 1>the matter that he's pursuing broadly sensible economic policy when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to taxing and spending, but he has a

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<v Speaker 1>very calm, sensible, well organized manner down in the streets.

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<v Speaker 1>Has not been you know, the hearts of British government

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<v Speaker 1>has not been well run for a very long time.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, you now have somebody who you know,

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<v Speaker 1>to go on. His record in the Treasury runs things

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<v Speaker 1>very well. You know, there won't be partying in in

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<v Speaker 1>Downing Street as there was in the partment. He's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>he's a teacher, he's a teetoe player. It would be

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<v Speaker 1>a very sober atmosphere. And if there are parties I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sure he'll own up to them as well. He won't

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<v Speaker 1>pretended and that I don't think he would. No, No,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the markets managed to tolerate you know, Boris

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<v Speaker 1>Johnson for a while now. But this is the first

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<v Speaker 1>time we've had good administration in Britain for a long time,

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<v Speaker 1>because before we had Boris Johnson we had Theresa a

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<v Speaker 1>who is tormented to an extraordinary degree by the Brexit uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 1>Now brexits done, we have a stable prime minister. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we'll get back to being one of the good

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<v Speaker 1>boys rather than one of the naughty children of Europe. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's certainly the hope. Now. Snek was a Leave proponent.

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<v Speaker 1>He's actually the first real believer given the trust was

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<v Speaker 1>at a commeron and Johnson even too. What will his

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<v Speaker 1>pro growth policy be. I think at the moment we

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<v Speaker 1>won't be thinking about pro growth policies at the moment.

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<v Speaker 1>The most important thing to do is to stabilize the

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<v Speaker 1>economy reassure the market, because without a stable economy, without stability,

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<v Speaker 1>without a reassured set of markets, you can't have any

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<v Speaker 1>growth whatsoever. Absolutely, what's interesting about all of this that

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<v Speaker 1>in the long term he is a person who believes

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<v Speaker 1>in lower taxes and the state as a smaller share

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<v Speaker 1>of GDP. You know, he has mentioned the figure of

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<v Speaker 1>about of g d P as being about the right amount.

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<v Speaker 1>His quarrel with this trust was not about where they

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to go, whether the growth was a good thing,

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<v Speaker 1>whether shrinking the state was a necessary way of leading

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<v Speaker 1>to hire growth in the long term. It was about timing,

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<v Speaker 1>and it was about whether you can actually cut taxes

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<v Speaker 1>and raised spending is exactly at the same time. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think as we move towards an election, he will

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<v Speaker 1>start cutting taxes again, which is always what he wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to do as chance to the chancell These argu with

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<v Speaker 1>policy games about speed and taste and timing right exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>I do want to ask you about the next election.

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<v Speaker 1>But before we leave this topic, Narrianna Cautlacola says also

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<v Speaker 1>in Bloomberg Opinion that markets didn't always trust the Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of England did, and that's in a way the case.

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<v Speaker 1>Right there was a standoff between Quasi Quarting and Andrew Bailey.

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<v Speaker 1>What will the relationship between SUNAC and Bailey be. We

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<v Speaker 1>haven't heard from Bailey yet. Um I think I don't

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<v Speaker 1>actually agree with that. I mean I I do think

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<v Speaker 1>that this sudden financial event, sudden budget which basically said

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<v Speaker 1>let's spend more money on energy and cut the top

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<v Speaker 1>rate of taxes and lots of other taxes, did suddenly

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<v Speaker 1>send a shock. And it was the combination of the

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<v Speaker 1>government saying let's putting the foot on the accelerator and

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<v Speaker 1>the Bank of England putting the foot on the brake.

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<v Speaker 1>It was this stopped me starting sort of thing that

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<v Speaker 1>really was the two things that really messed things up.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that the relationship between the treasure in the

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<v Speaker 1>Bank of England will be good. I think, but soon

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<v Speaker 1>act knows Bailey he will with him, you know closely

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<v Speaker 1>when he was at the Treasury, and he's a technocrat.

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<v Speaker 1>He's a person who loves the language of economics, the

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<v Speaker 1>language of macro financial management. In the long term economic policy.

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<v Speaker 1>He loves talking about all of that, as Bailey does.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, so they're both professionals, they're both technocrats and

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<v Speaker 1>are both sort of not political German. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>that we have we established I hate the fans are optimistic,

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<v Speaker 1>but we've re established sensible people at the heart of

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<v Speaker 1>the British government that we have. As he said, we

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<v Speaker 1>have got lots of problems ahead, but I don't see

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<v Speaker 1>the Bank of England and the Treasury moving in in

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<v Speaker 1>in in different directions. It will be difficulties ahead, but

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<v Speaker 1>there won't be chaos at the heart of government. More

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<v Speaker 1>next on Boomberg opinion. I'm Vanney Quinn. Well, in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of whosonic appointed and fired, it was a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a purge. You got rid of anyone who wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>a supporter all along and appointed or reappointed supporters, for

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<v Speaker 1>example sell a Braverman. Now slightly off topic, Tomorro gets

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<v Speaker 1>but how should we think about the fact that he

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<v Speaker 1>reappointed someone accused of a security breach which had called

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<v Speaker 1>her to resign. Well, you know, I was very disappointed

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<v Speaker 1>by the appointment of Raveman, partly because of the security breach,

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<v Speaker 1>partly because I don't think she's a very distinguished or

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<v Speaker 1>successful government figure. I don't think it's got a very

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<v Speaker 1>good career. I think a lot of her rhetoric is

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<v Speaker 1>is rather reporting. Also, you know, she's been making a

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<v Speaker 1>huge amount of from about Indians overstaying their visas, which

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<v Speaker 1>has enormously annoyed the Indian government because it seems to

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<v Speaker 1>she's she's stinging them them out. And as a time

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<v Speaker 1>when Anglo Indian relations, as the first Hindu prime minister

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<v Speaker 1>in the origin prime minister retor, it couldn't be better.

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<v Speaker 1>It seemed unnecessary. So it wasn't as though she's such

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<v Speaker 1>a towering talent or towering figure within the party that

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<v Speaker 1>he had to appoint her. So, you know, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know what deal was concocted between the two of them.

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<v Speaker 1>It may be the price, but he had to pay

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<v Speaker 1>for the right of the party, the Brexit rights of

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<v Speaker 1>the party being queercent or acquiescing. But it's it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>not the best start. I mean, I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>he's got rid of people who need to be got

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<v Speaker 1>rid of, either because they're they're weird or because they're

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<v Speaker 1>not all that good. I mean, Chloe Smith, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it was all that good. She's been got rid of.

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<v Speaker 1>I think be Small was eccentric and toxifying. He's got

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<v Speaker 1>rid of. I think all of that is good. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not the perfect administration, but it's better than it was.

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<v Speaker 1>Well to segue from there, Michael Gove, Secretary of Stage

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<v Speaker 1>for leveling up housing and communities. I mean which communities

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<v Speaker 1>are doing um, I think that I don't reach it soon.

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<v Speaker 1>Neck has a different, slightly different set of beliefs about

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<v Speaker 1>leveling up from his predecessor. He thinks that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the North of England is a sort of a nascent

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<v Speaker 1>patch right country, that what it needs is not an

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<v Speaker 1>enormous amount of money being spent on it, but a

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<v Speaker 1>removal of some of the restrictions to each on the growth.

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<v Speaker 1>And he's always said that the North of England has

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<v Speaker 1>coming to Patcherism a bit late, but it's coming to trism.

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<v Speaker 1>It was really people who would have voted for Mrs

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<v Speaker 1>SATs in the who came to Tacherism more recently because

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<v Speaker 1>of a legacy of cultural dislike for the Conservative Party.

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<v Speaker 1>So he I think he won't be as much leveling

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<v Speaker 1>up about spending. He'd be more leveling up about creating

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<v Speaker 1>enterprise and encouraging enterprise and encouraging entrepreneurial classes in the

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<v Speaker 1>North of England. But I think that that is a

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<v Speaker 1>policy which leveling up as Boris Johnson conceived of it

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<v Speaker 1>was a policy that required a lot of public spending

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<v Speaker 1>and we just don't have that much public money to

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<v Speaker 1>spend at the moment. Well, that's the other thing. He

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't have a war chest. So for how long do

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<v Speaker 1>you think Adrian is the UK now politically stable? Is

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<v Speaker 1>just more than two years enough time for sunach assuming

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<v Speaker 1>he stays to engineer a popular Conservative Party. Again, um,

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<v Speaker 1>there are two different questions there, whether we have stability.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that, um, I think that we have a

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<v Speaker 1>stable person in chart whereas we've we've had stable people

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<v Speaker 1>in charge. We have somebody who has supporters right across

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<v Speaker 1>the party on the left and the right party, which

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<v Speaker 1>we didn't have before. We have something who was actually

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<v Speaker 1>a prexiteer, you know, as you said, he's supported Brexit

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<v Speaker 1>long before his trust came around to the idea. So

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<v Speaker 1>I and we do have a general election coming up,

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<v Speaker 1>so I think that, you know, he is well positioned

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<v Speaker 1>to stabilize the Conservative Party. Whether that's enough to get

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<v Speaker 1>rid of the memories of the absolute absurdities of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the Tory Party destroyed its reputation for economic competence. It

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<v Speaker 1>looked like, you know, it was turning the country into

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<v Speaker 1>a completely laughing stock um and you know it's been

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<v Speaker 1>changing its leaders without having a general election. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think all of that, I would presume that we'll have

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<v Speaker 1>a Labor party, you know, a labor government next time,

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<v Speaker 1>even if he can stabilize things. And the other question

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<v Speaker 1>is who will emerge as the anti Sunak Conservative leader

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<v Speaker 1>in parliament, Mingle Boris Johnson or Lis Trust or any

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<v Speaker 1>of the previous ersiers play a significant roles from here.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a very good question. But I think that people

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<v Speaker 1>are really sick of these um people, you know, grandstanding.

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<v Speaker 1>They recognized that the country is in direstration that needs

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<v Speaker 1>a period of stability, and a lot of Tory MPs

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<v Speaker 1>realize that if you've got some rebellious faction and that

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<v Speaker 1>rebellious faction shakes the government tries to bring it down,

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<v Speaker 1>it might mean that the party is completely wiped out

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<v Speaker 1>in the next election. So even if it's just a

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<v Speaker 1>case of limiting the losses of the Conservative parts in

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<v Speaker 1>the next election. I think that's a powerful way in

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<v Speaker 1>which MPs will be disciplined and will discipline each other.

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<v Speaker 1>So I don't think anybody would be very popular if

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<v Speaker 1>they decide to cause yet more trouble over the next

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<v Speaker 1>two years, although it must be said that the Conservative

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<v Speaker 1>Party's appetite for trouble has been quite extraordinary. Nuomberg Opinions,

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