WEBVTT - Goldman Sachs International CEO Richard Gnodde Talks European Growth

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. I'm joined by Richardaldo,

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<v Speaker 1>the newly promoted vice chairman of Goldman Sachs. Richard, first

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<v Speaker 1>of all, good morning, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>But look, a change of job, a change of title.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you feel about it?

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<v Speaker 2>I feel fantastic for the overall firm. It's a hugely

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<v Speaker 2>exciting and energizing time. If I put into a broader context, you,

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<v Speaker 2>if I think about twenty twenty three, twenty Forard is really

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<v Speaker 2>nailing the firm's strategy, which we've really got set. You're

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<v Speaker 2>putting in the organizational structure, but of course people is

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<v Speaker 2>the most important thing here, and we've now put in

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<v Speaker 2>place a broad set of leaders that can really take

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<v Speaker 2>this forward, execute and deliver over the next five to

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<v Speaker 2>ten years. And so that's what this is part of.

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<v Speaker 2>For myself, Yeah, I've given up my CEO responsibilities for GSI,

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<v Speaker 2>but I'm thrilled to have the remit to really operate

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<v Speaker 2>broadly around the world and spend time with our people,

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<v Speaker 2>our clients, and I'm I'm very excited about the next

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<v Speaker 2>next period of time.

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<v Speaker 1>So what's the one thing that Goldman has to do now?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it talent retention more than actually getting strategy right,

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<v Speaker 1>which actually has proven to be the right thing to do.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we've just got to we've got to have the

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<v Speaker 2>right people, and we've got to have the right culture.

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<v Speaker 2>And if we get people in culture right, Goldman Sacks

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<v Speaker 2>will continue to be a great firm. And so we

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<v Speaker 2>focus on that day in and day out. We invest

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<v Speaker 2>in it. This is part of that investment. The other

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<v Speaker 2>thing I'd say is here we focus so much on

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<v Speaker 2>making sure that we've got a deep bench. But there's

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<v Speaker 2>no point in having a deep bench if you don't

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<v Speaker 2>use it. And this is an example of us really

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<v Speaker 2>using that bench and bringing the next generation off. And

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<v Speaker 2>there's going to be a huge amount of energy and

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<v Speaker 2>our clients will feel it, our people will feel it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's an exciting time.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you expecting to also hire a lot more given

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<v Speaker 1>all of the animal spirits that could be unlocked in

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<v Speaker 1>the US? And what does it mean for the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of the world, including Europe?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, we always try and modulate this. It's

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<v Speaker 2>easy to get carried away. None of us can predict

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<v Speaker 2>the future. Yeah, we all know how it feels right now.

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<v Speaker 2>If you're sitting here and you're talking to someone from

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<v Speaker 2>the US, it's huge optimism and enthusiasm. If you're talking

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<v Speaker 2>to someone from Europe, it's a little bit less the case.

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<v Speaker 2>And so we try and hire with a longer term view.

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<v Speaker 2>These are long term careers. We're not bringing people in

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<v Speaker 2>for the next twelve months. We're bringing people in for

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<v Speaker 2>a career. So hiring in at the bottom continues to

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<v Speaker 2>be hugely important. We do that whatever the cycle is.

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<v Speaker 2>But of course you know we're adding all the time

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<v Speaker 2>to our organization. The organization is growing.

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<v Speaker 1>I haven't one single person almost that's really optimistic about

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<v Speaker 1>the UK or Europe.

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<v Speaker 2>Are you No, The mood's not good. I mean my

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<v Speaker 2>takeaway would be and we all know the numbers, so

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<v Speaker 2>there's no point or need to rehearse them. Now. The

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<v Speaker 2>sentiment across you know, the big cap the big name

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<v Speaker 2>European industrial companies, you know that CEO community, there's an

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<v Speaker 2>increasing level of frustration because obviously they can see what's

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<v Speaker 2>happening in the US. Frankly, a lot of them are

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<v Speaker 2>investing significant dollars into the US, that's where the money's going.

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<v Speaker 2>But they also want to invest and grow and build

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<v Speaker 2>in the European economy, and so there's an increasing sense

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<v Speaker 2>of frustration, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see

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<v Speaker 2>that community broadly becoming much more assertive, assertive with the

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<v Speaker 2>regulatory framework, assertive in Brussels, in their own domestic capitals,

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<v Speaker 2>and really leaning in because I think that everybody knows

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<v Speaker 2>what the program needs to be. But I think people

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<v Speaker 2>are done with the talking. People really want to try

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<v Speaker 2>and push this into action. And if there is no

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<v Speaker 2>response from the discussions, then once and I said, we'll

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<v Speaker 2>see more assertion going forward, I suspect.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you see client behavior? Are they going to

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<v Speaker 1>spend more money? Are Europeans and international investors just going

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<v Speaker 1>to be spending more money in the US or are

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<v Speaker 1>they staying put for the moment until they figure out

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<v Speaker 1>what happens.

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<v Speaker 2>Both things are happening, so you the opportunity and the

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<v Speaker 2>returns are obviously they're in the US. And you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we've seen the activity of this week. That's only going

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<v Speaker 2>to encourage that behavior. So we'll continue to see capital

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<v Speaker 2>flowing in that direction. But look, Europe is a very

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<v Speaker 2>very large and significant economy and people want to participate here,

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<v Speaker 2>so I think we will see more restructure, We'll see

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<v Speaker 2>more consolidation. There's a real need across Europe to build

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<v Speaker 2>global champions of scale that can compete globally. Certainly in

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<v Speaker 2>our backlog and our client discussions, your EMINE activity, big

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<v Speaker 2>strategic transactions. You know, we're seeing frankly as much of

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<v Speaker 2>that as I can remember. So I think things are

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<v Speaker 2>going to things are going to move.

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<v Speaker 1>A credit credit what's your ambition there?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, as you know, we've got about one hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>thirty one hundred and forty billion dollars of private credit

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<v Speaker 2>sitting in our alternative asset management business and we aim

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<v Speaker 2>to double that. We want to get that through three

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<v Speaker 2>hundred billion, and then we'll take it from there. This

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<v Speaker 2>is a This is a really important source of financing

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<v Speaker 2>for our client base and they will continue to use it.

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<v Speaker 2>We obviously managing that alternative asset platform for investors. But

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<v Speaker 2>if you're a user, if you're a corporate, you can

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<v Speaker 2>go to the bank market, you can go to the

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<v Speaker 2>public credit markets, and you can go to the private

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<v Speaker 2>cre and having that choice is important. It all ties

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<v Speaker 2>into the capital market union concept in Europe. We need

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<v Speaker 2>to develop these markets, We need to develop the securitization market.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's see what gets done.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, what do you think Donald Trump's administration will

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<v Speaker 1>unlock in terms of you know, crypto. Are you going

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<v Speaker 1>to see really big deregulation which would also probut private markets?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. All I can say is if you if you're

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<v Speaker 2>an entrepreneur and you're getting out of bed in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States this week, you are full of optimism and

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<v Speaker 2>energy and whatever your chosen field. It may be crypto,

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<v Speaker 2>it maybe fracking, it maybe just starting a business. You're

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<v Speaker 2>going to be optimistic that you can drive something forward.

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<v Speaker 2>So I wouldn't isolate it sector by sector. I think

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<v Speaker 2>the energy will be contagious and it will be contagious

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<v Speaker 2>across all parts of that economy. And I think that's

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<v Speaker 2>what we're going to see. Now. We can't predict the future,

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<v Speaker 2>as I said, so let's see how all of this

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<v Speaker 2>plays out. Obviously, the markets themselves have anticipated a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of this last year. The US market up twenty percent,

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<v Speaker 2>was up twenty percent the year before. That market's not

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<v Speaker 2>going to grow twenty percent year in year out, So

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we need to have some sense of moderation

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of where the market is. But the underlying

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<v Speaker 2>energy across the economy. The economic growth, you know, plus

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<v Speaker 2>two percent? Does it get to three percent? Time will tell,

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<v Speaker 2>But there's a lot of energy then.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean there seems too you know, equities are price

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<v Speaker 1>of perfection in the US. Should that be a worry

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<v Speaker 1>when there's a lot of talk about inflation being a

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<v Speaker 1>concern for the Fed.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's judge perfection with hindsight. It depends what happens.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe they're priced with perfection, maybe they're not. But obviously

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<v Speaker 2>rates are a huge focus. You know, we've seen one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred racist points of road cuts over the last twelve months.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, we expect another fifty this year, maybe another

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five and twenty twenty six. But the data is

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<v Speaker 2>going to determine how that plays out. And obviously, if

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<v Speaker 2>the economy is running really hot, that's going to be

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<v Speaker 2>more difficult to have those red cuts here. The tariff discussion,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll see how that plays out. If that is on

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<v Speaker 2>the margin inflationary again, that'll make it more difficult for redcuts.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a lot in front of us, and so the

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<v Speaker 2>range of outcomes is as broad as it's ever been here.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think if the left tail and the right

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<v Speaker 2>tail you know, they're long and they're fatter than they've been.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think one needs to be forward leaning the

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<v Speaker 2>windows that you're back. But I think you need to

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<v Speaker 2>be a risk manager at the second time and be

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<v Speaker 2>looking left and right and make sure that you know

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<v Speaker 2>you're anticipating all the potential outcomes. They're all possible.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that your biggest concern is kind of bifurcation or

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<v Speaker 1>trying to understand, you know, the positive and the negative.

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<v Speaker 2>That's our job, you know, our job is to be

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<v Speaker 2>ready for whatever the outcome is going to be, and

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<v Speaker 2>we advise our clients in that way. We manage our

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<v Speaker 2>own risks in that way because, as we said a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of times in this discussion, the future is hard

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<v Speaker 2>to predict.

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<v Speaker 1>In terms of the announcements that we've had, I think

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<v Speaker 1>you've doubled the management committee. If you look at the numbers,

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<v Speaker 1>more women would probably be welcome. What's the secret sauce

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<v Speaker 1>on that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we continue to drive those initiatives. You're absolutely right,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a huge priority for the organization. Our most recent

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<v Speaker 2>partner class, which we announced at the end of last year,

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<v Speaker 2>in our European partner group, actually thirty eight percent of

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<v Speaker 2>that class was women. It was the highest number ever globally.

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<v Speaker 2>It was in the high twenties. We would love to

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<v Speaker 2>have more representation on the management committee. We will get

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<v Speaker 2>more representation on the management committee, and we're pushing people forward.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think if you if you look beyond the

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<v Speaker 2>management Committee and some of the recent announcements, you know

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<v Speaker 2>there are a lot of very very important jobs. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>we shore going to women the leadership bench. There is

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<v Speaker 2>growing in a very very good way. We'd all like

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<v Speaker 2>it to go faster.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for joining us, Richard Nade. They

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<v Speaker 1>are the vice chairman of Goldman Sachs