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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We have our eyes on deal making today, both at

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Speaker 2: home and a broad President Trump, of course touting economic

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Speaker 2: deals with partners in the Middle East, while here at home,

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Speaker 2: his partners on Capitol Hill, if you will, Republicans in

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Speaker 2: the House in particular, are trying to work a deal

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Speaker 2: to make sure his legislative agenda can pass, of course,

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Speaker 2: inclusive of extending the twenty seventeen tax cuts other measures

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Speaker 2: as well trimming of Medicaid. The problem is the deal

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Speaker 2: that needs to be reached is the one that seems

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Speaker 2: still elusive for House Republicans, and that is a deal

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Speaker 2: on the cap for the state and local tax deduction.

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Speaker 3: Yes, the Mighty Salt, which we've been talking about for months,

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Speaker 3: not done yet. But to Kayley's point, some work was

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Speaker 3: accomplished overnight. It was an all nighter. In fact, we

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Speaker 3: saw lawmakers falling asleep at the dais and the Ways

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Speaker 3: and Means Committee right around five am, they managed to

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Speaker 3: advance legislation twenty six to nineteen. Was the vote in

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Speaker 3: Ways and Means, of course, not the only committee marking

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Speaker 3: the up legislation. It all leads us to a potential

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Speaker 3: vote on the floor in time for Memorial Day. As

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Speaker 3: the speaker mentioned, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall joins us with more here,

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Speaker 3: our Washington correspondent live on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 4: Tyler, Yeah, hey, Joe. So, as these House tax writers

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Speaker 4: did advance this bill, as you're mentioning, there are still

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Speaker 4: some pretty big questions. Here's most notably when it comes

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Speaker 4: to what is going to happen to lifting the salt caps,

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Speaker 4: and big questions on the table. Except for that, we

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Speaker 4: do know. The one man that's heading up those negotiations

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Speaker 4: is House Speaker Mike Johnson, and he says, even as

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Speaker 4: there are disagreements and tries to tell us that we

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Speaker 4: could expect some sort of deal soon, they're still on

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Speaker 4: track to pass this legislation by the Memorial Day holiday.

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Speaker 4: As you're about to hear, he told reporters that they're

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Speaker 4: making some good progress.

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Speaker 5: We're still on target to hit that Memorial Day deadline,

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Speaker 5: which people balked at when we first said it. The

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Speaker 5: American people are counting on us to get this done

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Speaker 5: and get it done quickly, and we are on.

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Speaker 3: Target to do it.

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Speaker 5: We're working around the clock to build that consensus to

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Speaker 5: get the two hundred and eighteen votes and deliver on

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Speaker 5: President Trump's America First agendas.

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Speaker 4: Now he mentioned the threshold that they have to reach there.

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Speaker 4: That's important because these lawmakers from high tax dates like

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Speaker 4: New York, New Jersey, and California are really digging in

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Speaker 4: because they do have leverage since the majorities in the

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Speaker 4: House are so slim. Now, the current proposal on the

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Speaker 4: table would raise the salt cap from ten thousand dollars

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Speaker 4: to thirty thousand dollars with income limits. These lawmakers say

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Speaker 4: that's not good enough in order to ease the tax

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Speaker 4: burden on their constituents, and there might be a way

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Speaker 4: out of this. In fact, we know that the current

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Speaker 4: House tax bill is pricing in at about three point

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Speaker 4: eight trillion dollars, but lawmakers were given about four trillion

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Speaker 4: dollars to work with, so perhaps there's some wiggle room

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Speaker 4: there for a deal. Joe and Kelly, we're also watching

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Speaker 4: some other compromises on this front, including whether or not

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Speaker 4: they would double the cap for married couples. That's something

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Speaker 4: that's been floated on the table, as well as what

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Speaker 4: expiration dates would look like. So perhaps they'll lift the

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Speaker 4: salt cap, but then it just might not stay on

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Speaker 4: as long.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live in Capitol Hill on

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Speaker 2: Capitol Hill for US, Thank you so much. And we

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Speaker 2: go from the Hill now to the Middle East. We

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Speaker 2: find Bloomberg's and Marie Hordern, Bloomberg chief political correspondent, of course,

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Speaker 2: live in Doha for US, where President Trump is getting

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Speaker 2: ready to participate in a Katari state dinner and Marie,

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Speaker 2: this of course is stop number two on the President's

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Speaker 2: trip to the Middle East, which in large part is

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Speaker 2: about attracting investment. The White House is talking about potentially

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Speaker 2: upwards of one point two trillion dollars in economic exchange

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Speaker 2: between the US and Cutter. But what tangible do we

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Speaker 2: really know about?

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Speaker 6: Well, there's more than two hundred billion of what's actually

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Speaker 6: more tangible deals that were done. Maybe that one point

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Speaker 6: two trillion, Kaylee can call concepts of a plan or

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Speaker 6: aspiration all when it comes to the two hundred billion.

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Speaker 6: Look at the sectors that this administration is focused on.

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Speaker 6: There's really a theme here throughout the entire trip, whether

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Speaker 6: it's riod Doha or Abu Dhabi. Obviously you have the

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Speaker 6: biggest military installation for the US government in Doha, so

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Speaker 6: no surprise that there is also a big deal when

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Speaker 6: it comes to defense counter drones with raision. Obviously, we've

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Speaker 6: talked a lot about Boeing the shares that skyrocketed. Although

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Speaker 6: Bloomberg a week ago was reporting about this saying one

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Speaker 6: hundred wide body jets Katari Airways was looking to purchase

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Speaker 6: from Boeing, they actually up that to one hundred and

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Speaker 6: sixty today when the President of the mir came out

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Speaker 6: and talked about it, and then other things like quantum computing.

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Speaker 6: AI technology is huge for this region. Right now, we

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Speaker 6: are talking about traditional economies in this region when it

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Speaker 6: comes to energy oil gas that they want to move

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Speaker 6: beyond and look to how they can transform their economies.

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Speaker 6: For a place like Katta gas LNG is huge. They're

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Speaker 6: looking at potentially other ways to diversify and make more

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Speaker 6: dynamic economy. And that same theme will carry on tomorrow

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Speaker 6: when the President goes to Abu Dhabi. In Nvidia AMD

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Speaker 6: the potentially will be the big winners when it comes

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Speaker 6: to the fact that the Emaratis say they are ready

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Speaker 6: to invest one point four trillion, but they need access

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Speaker 6: to those advanced chips.

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Speaker 3: Indeed, big week, These are big headlines you're talking about,

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Speaker 3: Anne Marina. It's great to have you with us here,

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Speaker 3: whether it's in Vidia or Boeing, hearing less talk about

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Speaker 3: Turkey and Ukraine. What will those headlines be later this week.

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Speaker 6: Well, the President once again today left the door open

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Speaker 6: on potentially going to Istanbul.

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Speaker 7: Of course, he.

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Speaker 6: Is in the region, he's in the neighborhood. There's a

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Speaker 6: potential he could pill peel off and add this. He

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Speaker 6: did say, you know, I have a full schedule tomorrow

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Speaker 6: when he goes to Abu Dhabi. But the fact of

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Speaker 6: the matter is, I think the president, if you really

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Speaker 6: read between the lines, if President Putin decides to go

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Speaker 6: to Istanbul, President Donald Trump will go to Istanbul. He

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Speaker 6: recently just met face to face that really remarkable photo

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Speaker 6: in the Vatican, sitting face to face with Volodimir Zelenski.

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Speaker 6: He has not done that just yet with Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 6: I think if there's an opportunity to and he's a

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Speaker 6: quick flight away. He will take that opportunity. As of now,

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Speaker 6: though no plans yet.

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Speaker 3: That'd be a big deal with us live from Cutter

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Speaker 3: and Marie Hordur and a Marie, thank you so much.

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Speaker 3: As we follow the president's travels throughout the Middle East,

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Speaker 3: we had the voice of Natasha Hall, senior fellow with

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Speaker 3: the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and

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Speaker 3: International Studies CSIS. Natasha, it's great to have you with us.

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Speaker 3: I wonder your thoughts just broadly on the optics behind

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Speaker 3: this trip. So far, it's been a story of investment,

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Speaker 3: dollar signs, a different type of diplomacy than Americans were

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Speaker 3: used to in the Biden administration, right down to having

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Speaker 3: actual high tech executives yesterday, whether it was Sam Altman

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Speaker 3: or Jensen Wong meeting the Crown Prince alongside Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: in Saudi Arabia. How would you describe this journey? Will

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Speaker 3: it bring the White House?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, it's been an earth shattering I think few visits already.

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Speaker 8: I think what we can say is that this is

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Speaker 8: an America first strategy. I mean a lot of the

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Speaker 8: deals that are being made also portend a future where

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Speaker 8: the US has a bigger role in terms of military technology,

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Speaker 8: in terms of AI than potentially China, for example. And

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Speaker 8: then you know yesterday with the announcement of the cessation

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Speaker 8: of sanctions on Syria, the talks ongoing about hopefully a

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Speaker 8: ceasefire in Gaza. We don't know what will happen there,

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Speaker 8: But I mean this is really, I think in America

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Speaker 8: first rather than a natagnahu first policy strategy.

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Speaker 9: And that's what we've seen so far.

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Speaker 2: Well, and when we consider these American first policies, the

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Speaker 2: attempt to attract more investment from these countries into the

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Speaker 2: United States. America also has to give a little here

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Speaker 2: as well. Annerie was just talking about movement on ships, example,

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Speaker 2: for the UAE. To what extent is this for the

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Speaker 2: countries that are hosting the president also a chance for

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Speaker 2: them to extract concessions or things they want from him.

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Speaker 8: Well, that's exactly what we've been seeing. We know that

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Speaker 8: Saudi Arabia, for example, has wanted some kind of defense

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Speaker 8: pact with the United States, has wanted help with a

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Speaker 8: civilian nuclear program as well, but previous administrations had been

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Speaker 8: tying that to the Abraham Accords. So is Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 8: essentially normalizing with Israel, and we're seeing that that's not

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Speaker 8: necessarily on the table or doesn't have to be on

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Speaker 8: the table anymore.

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Speaker 9: And so this is very.

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Speaker 8: Much a symbiotic relationship that there is going to be

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Speaker 8: hundreds of billions of dollars in investment from the Golf

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Speaker 8: and in return, I think the Golf gets some foreign

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Speaker 8: policy wins. And we saw that with the sanctions announcement yesterday,

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Speaker 8: and hopefully we see some more movement on the Gaza

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Speaker 8: front today or tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: So what is Benjamin Thatt Netah thinking right now after

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Speaker 3: witnessing this meeting between President Trump and Syria's new leader,

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Speaker 3: knowing that President Trump is not making a visit to Israel,

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Speaker 3: what does this mean for their relationship?

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Speaker 9: I mean, this is truly astounding, Joe.

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Speaker 8: If you think about just a few months ago, this

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Speaker 8: was a man ahmed to shut out with a ten

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Speaker 8: million dollar bounty on his head as a former al

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Speaker 8: Qaeda affiliate. And you know, we didn't know what the

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Speaker 8: optics would look like with this meeting, but they were

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Speaker 8: very conciliatory, shaking hands, smiling. President Trump has said he's

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Speaker 8: a great guy, strong, passed things that I couldn't have

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Speaker 8: possibly imagined just a few months ago. The other thing

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Speaker 8: to consider is that President Trump continues to say that

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Speaker 8: he is consulting with aerdigon which I'm sure raises some

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Speaker 8: alarm bells for Israel, which sees Turkey is an increasing

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Speaker 8: threat with the fall of us Head It's neighbor to

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Speaker 8: the north. So there's a lot of concerns coming from

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Speaker 8: the Netanyahu administration. But I still think that this is

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Speaker 8: probably for the best for Israel over the long term.

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Speaker 8: I think less war less tensions in the region. It

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Speaker 8: represents a more peaceful future for the country and for

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Speaker 8: Israelis as well.

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Speaker 2: I do want to note for our audience here on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio and those joining us on YouTube

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Speaker 2: as well, that we are seeing President Trump's motorcade rolling

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Speaker 2: up to Lasale Palace in Doha for the Katari State Dinner,

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Speaker 2: of course once again for the second day in a row,

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Speaker 2: seeing a lot of pomp and circumstance that comes with

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Speaker 2: this trip for the president. We have our eyes on

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Speaker 2: the Beast, which has made the trip to the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: as President Trump is getting ready to emerge and participate

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Speaker 2: in this state dinner having already announced as we were

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Speaker 2: just discussing hundreds of billions of dollars at least in

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Speaker 2: economic deals between Cutter and the United States.

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Speaker 3: That's for sure, Kaalie, is we have this live view

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Speaker 3: of the present I guess about to emerge from the beast.

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Speaker 3: As you mentioned, he's on his way to a state

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Speaker 3: dinner that will conclude this day of travel in Cutter

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Speaker 3: and Natasha. I wonder what you expect to come from

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Speaker 3: this dinner, if this is more deal making or a

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Speaker 3: chance for the President to put the negotiating down for

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Speaker 3: a moment.

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Speaker 8: I mean, I think this might be putting the negotiating

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Speaker 8: down for a moment, but perhaps longer indirect talks. We

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Speaker 8: know that Shiekhtaman, the Amir of Kata, was supposed to

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Speaker 8: have a thirty minute meeting with President Trump.

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Speaker 9: It went on for two hours. We don't know why.

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Speaker 8: We do know that these Raelly negotiators have been somewhat

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Speaker 8: intransigent on Witkoff's plan for Gaza and hostage releases, so

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Speaker 8: there could be some tensions there that need to be

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Speaker 8: worked out. So it remains to be seen if President

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Speaker 8: Trump is going to apply pressure to Israel or others

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Speaker 8: to move something forward. But certainly I think this pomp

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Speaker 8: and circumstance does help, I think, to grease the wheels

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Speaker 8: of those negotiations for sure.

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Speaker 2: And President Trump has just emerged from his vehicle heading

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Speaker 2: into that state dinner with Cutter. We also heard from

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Speaker 2: the President yesterday Natasha of course, speaking at the Saudi

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Speaker 2: US investment for him in Riad, about how he wants

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Speaker 2: to be a peacemaker as president, talking about obviously ongoing

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Speaker 2: conflict between Israel and Amas, mentioning the Huthies as well,

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Speaker 2: what he'd like to see with Iran, but also an

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Speaker 2: expansion of the Abraham Accords, making it very clear his

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Speaker 2: desire for Saudi Arabia to join in. And I wonder

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Speaker 2: if you think this trip has realistically brought him closer

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Speaker 2: to that objective.

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Speaker 8: You know, I think it has in a sense, even

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Speaker 8: for Syria, which we couldn't have expected before. I think

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Speaker 8: that there's an acknowledgment though that the way that things are,

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Speaker 8: it would be very very challenging for Saudi Arabia or

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Speaker 8: Syria to sign the Abraham Accords. That things need to

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Speaker 8: get straightened out, there needs to be a broader peace

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Speaker 8: before that happens, but of course he did mention that

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Speaker 8: several times during his speech. But I think what he

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Speaker 8: really was trying to emphasize was that this needs to

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Speaker 8: be a region for the region, uh and really showing

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Speaker 8: that the golf players can be shapers of the region themselves,

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Speaker 8: uh and not just the United States and not just Israel.

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Speaker 8: And so I think that that is a really pronounced

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Speaker 8: rebalancing in the in the region that we don't know

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Speaker 8: what to expect entirely, but I mean, I think this

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Speaker 8: is a this is a considerable shift.

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Speaker 3: You think Donald Trump gets to Turkey this.

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Speaker 8: Week, I mean, one one can can hope, I think,

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Speaker 8: for for peace for Ukraine as well. But we do

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Speaker 8: know that that Secretary of State Rubio will meet with

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Speaker 8: Shae Beni, the Foreign Minister of Syria, and so this

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Speaker 8: just I think shows greater greater engagement diplomatically, so not

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Speaker 8: just on the financial side, but militarily uh and and

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Speaker 8: diplomatically as well. And I think that's what shik Tomimov

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Speaker 8: Cutaut was really trying to emphasize with his meeting, that

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Speaker 8: he sees Trump essentially as a man of peace and

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Speaker 8: really trying to play up those optics as much as possible.

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Speaker 8: But I think both sides, whether it's a Gulf state

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Speaker 8: or Turkey, is really trying to play up their hand

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Speaker 8: in terms of being negotiators being shapers, and I think

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Speaker 8: Trump is giving them those wins. Like I said, I

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Speaker 8: think on every occasion that he has been asked, he

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Speaker 8: has said that he really looks to President Erdigon of

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Speaker 8: Turkey for consultation. So that is a significant move in

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Speaker 8: and of itself, all right.

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Speaker 2: Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program at

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Speaker 2: the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. He's Durne

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Speaker 1: FLO New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for coming along. It's Balance of Power. I'm Joe

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Speaker 3: Matthew in Washington. I missed you. We're back on the

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Speaker 3: fastest show in politics, with a lot of talk about

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Speaker 3: this airplane. While I was gone. Every day I woke

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Speaker 3: up and read something new about this seven four to

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Speaker 3: seven that ABC started talking about this is the plane

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Speaker 3: from Cutter. Wasn't until the Washington Post got to it

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Speaker 3: this week, though, that I really had a sense of

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Speaker 3: what we were talking about here, and I'm the more

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Speaker 3: I learned, the more I'm asking questions. Of course, the

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Speaker 3: seven forty seven is what Boeing made that became Air

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Speaker 3: Force one. There are two of them, and they're aging.

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Speaker 3: We talked about this in the first Trump administration, and

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Speaker 3: getting Boeing to make more has taken time. So we're

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Speaker 3: looking now at this, this so called gift from Cutter

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Speaker 3: to retrofit what is a thirteen year old aircraft at

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Speaker 3: some four hundred million dollars. But the retrofit would cost

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Speaker 3: a lot more than that, as we learn, of course,

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Speaker 3: and we're hearing concern from a lot of Republicans now

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Speaker 3: in Washington. Could pick out John Thoone if you want,

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Speaker 3: You could look at Ted Cruz suggesting that there are

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Speaker 3: great concerns here about security, not to mention the idea

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Speaker 3: of gifting under the rules of the Constitution. Donald Trump,

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Speaker 3: though talking about this, he can't figure out exactly what

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Speaker 3: the problem is here, as he's made clear on truth

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Speaker 3: social and in speaking about this on his trip through

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Speaker 3: the Middle East. Here he is listen, do we not

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Speaker 3: have Donald Trump here? All right, let's take a look

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Speaker 3: at what he's writing. He says, the seven four to

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Speaker 3: seven is being given to the United States Air Force,

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Speaker 3: Department of Defense, not to me exclamation point. So you've

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Speaker 3: got the question of the gift, and then you got

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Speaker 3: the question of the work that's being done here. I'm

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Speaker 3: going to get to both of these with Ashley Davis,

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Speaker 3: Republicans Strategists, partner at AS three Group, former Special Assistant

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Speaker 3: to the Director of Homeland Security. Her wheelhouse is national security,

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Speaker 3: and that's where we want to get into because there

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Speaker 3: are concerns about whether this plane is actually going to

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Speaker 3: be safe for the president to use. It's nice to

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Speaker 3: see you, welcome back, Thank you, so for you well,

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Speaker 3: thank you, it's great to be back here. Here's the

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Speaker 3: part that I'm having a hard time with understanding when

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Speaker 3: it comes to the jet is that Donald Trump likely

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Speaker 3: would never be able to use it. This airplane would

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Speaker 3: take years of work, billions of dollars in upgrades, and

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Speaker 3: impossible to complete it before Donald Trump takes office. So

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Speaker 3: what does he want this for?

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Speaker 10: So, Joe, you know, I'm a big believer that there

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Speaker 10: are various levels to what he does, and so let's

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Speaker 10: talk about the national security part of this one. It's

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Speaker 10: going to take two to three years to retrofit this

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Speaker 10: plane if it actually ends up coming to the United States.

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Speaker 10: I mean, there's absolutely no way that our Department on Defense,

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Speaker 10: our intel community would ever not take that and strip

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Speaker 10: it completely to make sure it's the safest plane in

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Speaker 10: the world. But I also think supposedly he is very

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Speaker 10: angry about not getting his plane for not the like

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Speaker 10: for six years, he's been wanting this plane, so he's

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Speaker 10: angry about it.

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Speaker 7: He talked about it again yesterday.

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Speaker 10: He's continuing the dialogue to so I think he's poking

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Speaker 10: a little bit at the company that is making the plane,

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Speaker 10: and so he's trying to cause a little bit of

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Speaker 10: friction there. But he also I think there's this is

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Speaker 10: a diversion tactic in a way as well.

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Speaker 3: So I'm a big believer to get the actual Boeing

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Speaker 3: planes well that yes, and.

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Speaker 10: Put a little pressure on them to actually deliver their plane.

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Speaker 10: But also I think, look, there is so much happening

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Speaker 10: right now in Washington, and this is the number one

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Speaker 10: story on every news note it.

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Speaker 3: Sure is it's been days of coverage days. Well, he's

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Speaker 3: rolling through the Middle East, and.

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Speaker 10: So one thing I just want to say, does that

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Speaker 10: help him? Listen, are we talking about medicaid?

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Speaker 7: Really? Are we talking about snatch?

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Speaker 3: Are we talking about investments in the Middle East?

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Speaker 7: Well, that's what it's taking away from yea.

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Speaker 10: So even though my theory is he's trying to take

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Speaker 10: away a little bit from some of the potential bad

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Speaker 10: noise that could be happening in Washington right now, it

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Speaker 10: is also taken away for some of the big investments

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Speaker 10: that he's making. I think you know. Obviously, the plane

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Speaker 10: was in West Palm Beach, it was at mar Lago

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Speaker 10: when some of the Kataris were visiting. He saw the plane,

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Speaker 10: he loved it, and then he just started this dialogue.

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Speaker 10: And the reason he knows that there's a lot of

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Speaker 10: people and a lot of things and very controversial about

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Speaker 10: this from just a gifting perspective, right, even if they

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Speaker 10: give it to the library, yes, at the end of

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Speaker 10: the day, but he's doubling down on it. So to me,

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Speaker 10: he knows exactly what he's doing to the rest of us.

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Speaker 10: Maybe we're just not sure what that is.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, there's a massive constitutional component to this, of course,

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Speaker 3: So I'm not going to try to turn you into

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Speaker 3: a constitutional lawyer, but I will point you to this

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Speaker 3: headline on the Washington Post. Trump's gifted Cottery seven four

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Speaker 3: to seven would be a security problem. Official say, by

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Speaker 3: the way, it was moved five weeks ago, they learned

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Speaker 3: to San Antonio International Airports. So he's apparently already taken

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Speaker 3: delivery of this jet. I mean, can you strip this

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Speaker 3: to the studs and actually make it safe from a

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Speaker 3: national security standpoint?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 10: Absolutely, I mean you could have you could have the

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Speaker 10: same national even though Boeing that made air Force one

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Speaker 10: to this point as a US company, they would still

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Speaker 10: go through the exact same thing that they're going.

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Speaker 7: They're going to go through this plane.

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Speaker 10: By the way, the Department of Defense, from what I understand,

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Speaker 10: and maybe I'm wrong, and Joe you've heard something different,

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Speaker 10: they have not officially accepted this plane as a gift.

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Speaker 3: That's what we understand. But what's to do in sitting

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Speaker 3: in San Antonio becomes the question?

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Speaker 7: I know it from mar Lago too.

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Speaker 3: Right, Well, it's been suggested that the upgrades may have

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Speaker 3: already begun at that location.

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Speaker 7: Maybe I don't know that sure, of.

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Speaker 3: Course, but this is what we're learning, and I'm trying

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Speaker 3: to get the latest stuff here. What needs to happen

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Speaker 3: to a four hundred million dollar airplane to make it

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Speaker 3: safe for the president to fly in?

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Speaker 7: Well, listen, I mean.

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Speaker 10: Air Force one will have the absolute no matter who's

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Speaker 10: in it is going to have the absolute most secure,

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Speaker 10: whether it's from the communications perspective. They will strip it

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Speaker 10: to put in all the different missile detectors that they

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Speaker 10: have in regards to Air Force One. I mean, if

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Speaker 10: you think about and this is a conversation that's hard

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Speaker 10: to get onto on the air right now with limited time,

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Speaker 10: but what the plane has, especially like with Bush after

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Speaker 10: nine to eleven when he was or on nine to

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Speaker 10: eleven when he was flying around the country, different things

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Speaker 10: that they put on the airplane for security, say, the

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Speaker 10: same thing they do in Israel for a lot of

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Speaker 10: their planes in regards to their military planes.

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Speaker 7: That will take years to put on the plane.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so he may not actually get to enjoy this thing,

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Speaker 3: which is kind of bizarre.

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Speaker 7: We'll find out, well, we could if it it goes

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Speaker 7: to the library. I mean, we'll see.

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Speaker 10: I mean, I think Rick's on next he can talk

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Speaker 10: about the library ins and outs, but I mean, because

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Speaker 10: he knows that from McCain. But I think there's definitely

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Speaker 10: federal oversight that these library presidential libraries have, so we'll see.

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Speaker 10: I mean, look, it's a story, it's a story that

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Speaker 10: has a lot of ethical questions. That's not something unusual

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Speaker 10: for the president so.

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Speaker 3: Well, and to your point, it's keeping us away from

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Speaker 3: a lot of other stories. What do you think about

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Speaker 3: this trip so far? Because some of the math doesn't

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Speaker 3: add up, whether it's the Boeing jets we're hearing about,

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Speaker 3: whether it's the overall investments from countries like Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 3: or Cutter. I'm more concerned about the optics as always

439
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 3: that we talk about here. The image of this meeting

440
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 3: yesterday with the President with mbs Elon Musk, Sam Altman,

441
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 3: Jensen Wong. Is this a new approach to the presidency?

442
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:37,959
Speaker 3: Have we seen anything like this before?

443
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:38,439
Speaker 4: Now?

444
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 7: I think he's trying to do two things.

445
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 10: One, I think he believes that that part of the

446
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 10: country is in regards to economic growth as one of

447
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 10: the fastest best places to invest in and a lot,

448
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 10: believe me, I spend a lot of time in the

449
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 10: Middle East, and every body is trying to get in

450
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 10: either in there or for them to invest in them.

451
00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 3: So as part of turning away.

452
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 10: From China, absolutely, it's also trying to do some an economic.

453
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 7: Diplomacy in a way with the region.

454
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 10: If you look at some of the things he's asking for,

455
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 10: and he asked for yesterday with Sadi, and he's asking

456
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 10: for today with Qatar. Is trying to have softer stance

457
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 10: on Israel. I mean us being friends with this region

458
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 10: in regards to our relationship with Israel is not a

459
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 10: bad idea. And also the more we're coming together, even

460
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 10: with the announcement yesterday with Syria in regards of rolling

461
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 10: back the sanctions, I mean, I think that having a

462
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 10: strong Middle East with America to fight potentially China and

463
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 10: Russia is what he's trying to do. Obviously there's a

464
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 10: business side of it as well, but there's definitely a diplomacy.

465
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 7: Side of this.

466
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 10: And also remember the Abraham Courts, I mean, he that

467
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 10: was unheard of. Whether anyone wants to give him credit

468
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 10: for it.

469
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 3: Today, could he expand them?

470
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 7: I mean, we'll see. I mean, I don't know who

471
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 7: you're really going to expand with You know.

472
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 3: The downside here is if you ask ben minute Yaho

473
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 3: is that there's no Israeli visit, he feels slighted. Are

474
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 3: you surprised by that choice?

475
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 7: Yes?

476
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 10: But that may be the I mean, listen, I was

477
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 10: asked this yesterday too. I think there's absolutely no way

478
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 10: that we don't have a strong relationship with Israel, that

479
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 10: we're not going to support Israel.

480
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 7: And I'm sure that I am not.

481
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 10: Aware of and not privy to, there's a strategic reason

482
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 10: why that's not happening.

483
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 3: If you're Benjaminett, yeaho, and you hear a headline like

484
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 3: sanctions against Syria or being drops why you feel like

485
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 3: you're being ignored by the president? That doesn't impact the relationship.

486
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 7: It may but at the.

487
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 10: End of the day, is he going to stop a

488
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 10: relationship with the United States of America?

489
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 3: Now highly unlikely.

490
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 11: Yeah.

491
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 3: What does Donald Trump bring home then, other than dollar science?

492
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 3: Or is that just the point of the trip?

493
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 10: Well, if he brings home some sort of if he's

494
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 10: well one, if he strikes a deal in Turkey, I mean,

495
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 10: let's even go there.

496
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 7: In regards to Yeah, Ukraine, and there's so much to

497
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 7: talk about.

498
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 10: How can we could talk for three hours every day

499
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 10: just for what happened on this weekend.

500
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 3: Every day. Yeah, yes, exactly, that's the deal. But maybe

501
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 3: that's something that we'll talk about when you come back,

502
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 3: because the Ukraine deal is all we're going to be

503
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 3: turning to, let's say, in the next twenty four hours, Yeah,

504
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 3: for eight hours, want to get right, I mean to

505
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 3: Turkey exactly.

506
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 10: And so that's that's something Well Putin hasn't agreed to

507
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 10: go yet, so but Zelensky has, So we'll see what

508
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 10: happens there if he comes home with and I agree

509
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 10: with you, which you started out this segment saying all

510
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 10: the announcements and investments that have I mean, obviously those

511
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 10: are great announcements. Andrew knows what actually comes out of them.

512
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 10: But and I hear the music, I have to stop.

513
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 3: Talking, Jack, you can talk right through the music. Actually,

514
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 3: any time you want. Ashley Davis gets to do anything

515
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 3: around here as three Group Republican strategist and always the

516
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 3: insights that we're looking for. Here.

517
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

518
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn

519
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 1: On Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

520
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

521
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, just say Alexa Bloomberg eleven thirty.

522
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,679
Speaker 2: Here in Washington, there are probably a lot of tired lawmakers,

523
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 2: at least in the House of Representatives on Capitol Hill today,

524
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 2: because many of them had to quite literally pull all

525
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 2: nighters last night, including in the House Ways and Means

526
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 2: Committee as it marked up its draft tax bill that

527
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 2: would do a number of things, including, of course, extend

528
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: the twenty seventeen tax cuts, eliminate taxes on tipped income

529
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:29,199
Speaker 2: in overtime until twenty twenty eight, other elements of President

530
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 2: Trump's campaign promises as well, and it finally got through

531
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 2: the committee a long party line snow surprise this morning,

532
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: but it did so without one issue, perhaps the issue

533
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 2: being resolved, and that is where exactly do you cap

534
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,479
Speaker 2: the state and local tax deduction to keep everybody happy?

535
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 2: And the people you need to keep happiest are the

536
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 2: people who represent blue states in districts that are swingy

537
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 2: that make or break the House majority, and a lot

538
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 2: of those so called Salt Caucus members are still looking

539
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 2: for answer from the Speaker of the.

540
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 3: House of Night Johnson at this sounds like you've been

541
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 3: to New York. So sixteen hours in committee was not

542
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 3: enough to hash any of this out. They had an

543
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 3: all nighter. I mean they were bringing in takeout and

544
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 3: wine at four point fifty seven am. Blake Moore's asleep

545
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 3: there in the Ways and means committees. So there are

546
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 3: questions exactly about how long it's going to take to

547
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: get this done, Kaylee. And for a reality check, we

548
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 3: introduced Bill Holglin. Always great to have Bill with us,

549
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 3: Senior Vice President the Bipartisan Policy Center. Bill, not only

550
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 3: do you give us a reality check, but you help

551
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 3: us lower the blood pressure for a moment. So I'm

552
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 3: wondering if you can distill this moment as one of

553
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 3: progress or maybe one of concern for you, because the

554
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 3: Speaker of the House seems emboldened. He says, very productive

555
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 3: and we might well get this done in time for

556
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 3: Memorial Day.

557
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,239
Speaker 11: Well, I do think that a lot of progress has

558
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 11: been made in terms of the committees that were instructed

559
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 11: to come up with the savings, and they had almost

560
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 11: every one of them has met what was instructed of them.

561
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 11: The House Budget Committee will meet Friday morning and bundle

562
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 11: all these bills up into one package and report it out.

563
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 11: So it is a good possibility that it will all

564
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 11: be on the floor and could be done by more

565
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 11: day recess a week from this coming Friday. So yes,

566
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 11: I think there is good progress in that regard. The

567
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 11: elements of the package, however, may create some real issues

568
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 11: for the speaker, particularly given today that we were hearing

569
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 11: so much from members some of the more conservative members

570
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 11: of the United States Senate that has to take up

571
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 11: this bill, who are suggesting that they don't like what's

572
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 11: in there, and that will make it more difficult for

573
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:36,919
Speaker 11: the speaker on the floor to get the votes, it

574
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 11: seems from those moderate Republicans besides the point that Kayley's

575
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 11: made it, but they still I don't think have fully

576
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 11: resolved the issue as it relates to the Salt Well.

577
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 2: And when we consider the moderate Republicans who are nervous

578
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 2: at the very least about the cuts to medicaid the

579
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 2: Salt Caucus which we're talking about, then the hardline conservatives,

580
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 2: not just in the Senate but in the House who

581
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: do not think these spending cuts enough go far enough.

582
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 2: Knowing how narrow the majority is bill, is there enough

583
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 2: room to maneuver if your speakers.

584
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 11: It is very tight. Of course, we cannot never rule

585
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 11: out the pressure that the United that the President of

586
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 11: the United States will have once he gets back from overseas,

587
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 11: he will put a lot of pressure on I do

588
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 11: think that it's going to be very nick and cut

589
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:20,959
Speaker 11: down to the end to get the votes, and there

590
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 11: will have to be some hard arm swinging, I guess

591
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 11: as bending, if nothing else, to get it through the

592
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 11: House of Representatives. But even if it gets through the

593
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 11: House of Representatives, I think we have to your listeners

594
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 11: have to understand that we still have the United States Senate,

595
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 11: and the United States Senate will produce its own bill

596
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 11: and it will be different. It clearly will be different

597
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 11: than the House. And then you'll have to have a

598
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 11: conference between the House and Senate, and that's then they'll

599
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 11: come back and you have to vote again on it.

600
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 3: So it doesn't have a revolt on his hands now

601
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 3: he will then.

602
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 11: He will then if it comes back from the Senate

603
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 11: much different than what the House is, what's.

604
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 3: The Freedom Caucus going to say when the cuts aren't there.

605
00:29:57,720 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 11: I think they're going to have some real difficulties with

606
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 11: this gonna This is uh this is going to be tough.

607
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 11: It was always going to be tough, but when the

608
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 11: marginer this small makes it even tougher, and then you

609
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 11: and then you just still do have the real issue

610
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 11: about whether or not just as an old budgeteer myself,

611
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 11: I do believe debt and deficits matter. Uh So we're

612
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 11: looking at tax cuts maybe in four trillion dollars, but

613
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,959
Speaker 11: we're only looking at it quote only, we're looking at

614
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 11: one point five trillion dollars in spinding cuts. You're adding

615
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 11: to the defict. You're not reducing the defict. And that's

616
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 11: where the hardliners will come from, the chip Roys of

617
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 11: the world, and say, wait a minute, this doesn't go

618
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 11: enough in reducing the debt and deficit's going forward.

619
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 2: Well, and when we consider some of the things we're

620
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 2: hearing out of the Senate, it's not just Senator Josh

621
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 2: Holly making noise about Medicaid. You have other senators as

622
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 2: well who are concerned about the repeal of clean energy

623
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 2: credits from the Infleetion Reduction Act, which with all the

624
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 2: Medicaid and salt talk, is not getting as much attention.

625
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 2: But is that actually one of the things that could

626
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 2: be the biggest team.

627
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 11: I'm glad you raised that issue because there are a

628
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 11: number of those Republicans who maybe didn't vote for the

629
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 11: Eye when it passed, but we're behind the scenes saying

630
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 11: good because from the benefiting from it now exactly, And

631
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 11: so that's going to be tough for them to stomach

632
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 11: at the cuts and the elimination quite frankly, of almost

633
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 11: all the IRA provisions dealing with clean clean energy programs

634
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 11: that are in there, and the grants that are in

635
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 11: there too, and some of those grants are out there

636
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 11: already in the community.

637
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 3: You mentioned some of the changes that senators could make.

638
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 3: What kind of changes might the parliamentarian force when we

639
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:30,479
Speaker 3: get to that stage.

640
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 11: Oh, that's a good process.

641
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 3: The bird bath could bring a few items out that

642
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 3: Republicans in the House think they need.

643
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 11: Yeah, yeah, it's a good point. Joe. I actually remind people,

644
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 11: being an old Senate staffer, that the bird the so

645
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 11: called bird rule really only applies in the Senate. The

646
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 11: House can pass it with simple majority, and they can

647
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 11: put in things that that when the parliamentarian looks at

648
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 11: it in the Senate and we'll find that wait a minute,

649
00:31:55,800 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 11: these these have no budgetary consequences. The author programs fine,

650
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 11: but there's no budgetary consequence. So a lot of the

651
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 11: things that they put into to the House provision for

652
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 11: winning those votes to get the vote that we're eliminating

653
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 11: a program, but it may have no budgetary consequence. They

654
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 11: will come that will that will be subject to the

655
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 11: bird rule and will come out unless our sixty votes

656
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 11: to keep them in. So that will also change the

657
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 11: real nature of the Senate bill when it comes back

658
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 11: to the House well.

659
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 2: And so all of this raises the question of the

660
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 2: timeline here. As House leadership is still sounding optimistic. We

661
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 2: heard Steve Scalise say this will be on the President's

662
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,959
Speaker 2: desk by the fourth of July. How hard is that

663
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 2: going to be to manage if you still have to

664
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 2: get it through the Senate in whatever form, get it

665
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 2: back to the House, and get them to choke down

666
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 2: whatever it is the change is the Senate made.

667
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 11: I would give I would I would say, very very difficult.

668
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 11: July fourth. Let's be honest. If they can get this

669
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 11: out of the House next week, they go on the

670
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 11: Memoriday recess, the whole month of June or June will

671
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 11: be devoted in the United States Senate to getting their

672
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 11: bill done. So even if they got their bill done

673
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 11: in June, then you'll need the whole month of July

674
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 11: just to work out the difference between the House and Senate.

675
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 11: If you can do that, so, I think I would

676
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 11: push the mister Scales's statement to the end of July

677
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 11: at the earliest, but even then at the earliest, at

678
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 11: the earliest.

679
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 8: Ok.

680
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 3: You spoke with Lisa McLean yesterday, Republican congresswoman in the

681
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 3: leadership in the House, speaking to the standoff, if I

682
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 3: can call it that over salt. I want you to

683
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 3: hear what she said. I'm just compelled by the fact

684
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 3: that this very narrow issue could potentially hang up this

685
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 3: entire big, beautiful bill that we're talking about. Here's what

686
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 3: she said.

687
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 12: There is some wiggle room. How much rigger room, That's

688
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 12: what we need to determine. But at the end of

689
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 12: the day, I think both sides will come together to

690
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 12: get this done for the American people, because what we'll

691
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 12: see if we don't get this tax bill done will

692
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 12: be gravely worse than what we're experiencing now with the

693
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 12: salt cap for all Americans.

694
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 3: But Bill, if you're Mike Lawler, sitting there in New York.

695
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 3: You don't have wiggle room. And if you're a no,

696
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 3: then this entire effort is going nowhere. What does Speaker

697
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 3: Johnson need to do to put this to bed?

698
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 11: Well, I think he does have to negotiate a higher

699
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 11: level than the ten thousand for the salt. He has

700
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 11: to move it up. I was surprised to hear that

701
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 11: the exult to Caucus, so to speak, reject at the

702
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 11: thirty thousand. Yeah, that seems strange to me. But there

703
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 11: has to be some place between ten thousand and somewhere

704
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 11: up about thirty thousand. Maybe that will get it over.

705
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 11: I think the representative is absolutely clear though. If you

706
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:48,280
Speaker 11: do not get this done, then the impact upon middle

707
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,959
Speaker 11: income quite frankly because of the marginal tax rates would

708
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 11: go up, would be very devastating, both for Republicans and Democrats.

709
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 11: That's why, and I'm sure I'm in the minority on this.

710
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,720
Speaker 11: That's why I think at some point, if they cannot

711
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:04,240
Speaker 11: get this reconciliation bill across the line, that there's still

712
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 11: a possibility of simply extending the current tax law, so

713
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 11: those tax those tax rates still go up next year

714
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 11: on individual Americans.

715
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 2: Well, so that would mean that you kind of separate

716
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 2: these things out where I trying to do one big,

717
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 2: beautiful bill. Would that be an endorsement of the Senate's

718
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 2: original strategy?

719
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 11: Exactly exactly. That's exactly where I'm glad you went there

720
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 11: because I'm being an old Senate staffer and I do

721
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 11: appreciate the work of Speaker of the Majority Leader, mister Thune.

722
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 11: That was his strategy. Announce and let's do what we

723
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,760
Speaker 11: can do, get a win, and then move on. That's where, yes,

724
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 11: I think that this validates mister Thune's original position.

725
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 3: The wild card for all of this, of course, the

726
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 3: debt limit, and that's going to depend greatly on the

727
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 3: X state where this actually lands and is it a

728
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 3: good thing for Republicans. In fact, if it lands earlier

729
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 3: and it has to be part of this reconciliation.

730
00:35:56,239 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 11: Bill, it does it? Does it right now? Increasing the

731
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 11: debt limit? We think that the Biparson policies center our

732
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 11: estimate yesterday, who put out maybe the end of July

733
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 11: and maybe into early October. We've got to range, We've

734
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 11: got to wait and see what the tax coming in

735
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 11: on the estimated quarterly taxes come in at But it

736
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 11: is in this reconciliation bill. It therefore only requires a

737
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,879
Speaker 11: simple majority if to raise the debt limit. If they

738
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 11: cannot get it done again, I'm promitting the minority here.

739
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 11: They can pull that reconciliation of just the debt limit

740
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 11: out of this bill and pass it free standing as

741
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 11: a debt limit. Or if they can't do that, then

742
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 11: they're back in a situation where I think they're going

743
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 11: to have to negotiate with the Democrats, which is the

744
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 11: last thing Republicans want, well, and.

745
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 2: It would be the first real opportunity for Democrats to

746
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:52,800
Speaker 2: have any kind of leverage since January.

747
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 11: Right, And this is very similar to where we were

748
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 11: in twenty three when we were facing a debt limit

749
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 11: and increasing increasing the debt limit and ended up negotiating

750
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 11: the Fiscal Responsibility Active Yes, which set new caps for

751
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 11: twenty for spending for twenty four and twenty five.

752
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 3: So while we're sitting here talking about this bill, is

753
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 3: there is somewhere quietly on Capitol Hill where that component

754
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 3: of reconciliation is being written, So it will be ready.

755
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 11: Oh yes, well quite frankly, the bills are already are

756
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 11: being written right now.

757
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:22,759
Speaker 3: When it comes to the debt limit.

758
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 11: Well, that's a simple that's a simple.

759
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 3: So we can just to frank out that page when

760
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 3: we That doesn't take much time.

761
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,439
Speaker 11: Don't take much time, I will say.

762
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 2: I spoke with the Republican Conference Chair in the House,

763
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 2: Lisa McLean, last night, and I asked her, is there

764
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,439
Speaker 2: a backup plan if we can't get done in time

765
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 2: to deal with the debt ceiling? She said, they're not

766
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 2: really working on that yet because they're so confident in

767
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 2: their timeline. But you don't buy that.

768
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:46,799
Speaker 11: I think it's gonna be tough. It's gonna be.

769
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 2: Tough, so backup plan might be necessary. That said, we

770
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 2: do know they work better with a deadline, right, So,

771
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,760
Speaker 2: when we're talking about the prospect of the House potentially

772
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,799
Speaker 2: having to grapple with Senate changes, if you know the

773
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 2: X state is looming, recess is looming too, does that

774
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 2: actually make it easier for the House to adjust to

775
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 2: the Senate's desires?

776
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 11: Well, I think that depends. One could say that the

777
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,280
Speaker 11: August recess at sacer sank in this town. For members,

778
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 11: it may be in question and they could work on

779
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 11: I think I don't. I don't think it's going to

780
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,240
Speaker 11: be as easy as just saying, we got this deadline

781
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 11: here and let's uh, let's get it all done beforehand,

782
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 11: because it's these are big policy items, you just don't

783
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 11: do them, Willy Nelly, because because there's a vacation August

784
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 11: vacation coming up, it's Washington.

785
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 2: I was just about to say, Bill Hoagland, great as

786
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 2: always to have you here at the Balance of Power,

787
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: Senior Vice President of the Bipartisan Policy Center.

788
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:45,919
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

789
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

790
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

791
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

792
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

793
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 3: George Clooney back in the news. I don't know if

794
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 3: he wanted to be, but it's all anyone's talking about

795
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 3: around here. Once we finished the conversation about the jet

796
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:12,280
Speaker 3: from Cutter. You know, he's dying his hair now on Broadway.

797
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 3: If you've seen, he's doing a good night and good

798
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 3: luck jet black hair. Not something that Joe Biden tried

799
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 3: on the campaign trail. Yet we're talking about these two

800
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 3: in retrospect following this new book out here by Jake

801
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 3: Tapper and Alex Thompson, as we read, and this is

802
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 3: all about, of course, Joe Biden's mental acuity, what was

803
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 3: really happening inside the administration, and whether people were covering

804
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 3: up for him. A lot of anonymous sources saying things

805
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,280
Speaker 3: like this story about George Clooney shaken to his core.

806
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 3: We read the President hadn't recognized him, a man he

807
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 3: had known for years. They write, Clooney had expressed concern

808
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 3: about Biden's health before a White House aide told him

809
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 3: a few months back they were working on getting the

810
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,320
Speaker 3: President to take longer steps when he walked, but obviously

811
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:06,280
Speaker 3: the problem went far beyond his gait. This was much graver.

812
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 3: It was like two weeks later, he wrote the column

813
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 3: that began the unwinding of Joe Biden's run for reelection.

814
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 3: A lot of questions about this book, about whether this

815
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 3: is actually news, and about whether it is productive to

816
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 3: be looking in the rear view mirror here as Democrats

817
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 3: try to find their way forward. And that's what we're

818
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 3: talking about with our political panel in this part of

819
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 3: our conversation. Rick Davis is here at the table Bloombergy

820
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,280
Speaker 3: Politics contribute a Republican strategist partner at Stone Court Capital,

821
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,280
Speaker 3: also with us in studio as Adam Hodge, managing director

822
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 3: Bully Pulpit International, are Democratic strategists. Great to see both

823
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 3: of you gentlemen here. Adam, you work in the Biden

824
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:46,319
Speaker 3: administration for some time. It's good to see you. I'm

825
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:48,879
Speaker 3: sure you don't like reading stories like this, but what's

826
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 3: your reaction and did you actually hear stories like this

827
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 3: when you were in the White House.

828
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:57,760
Speaker 13: My initial reaction is that anytime the Democrats are spending

829
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:01,359
Speaker 13: focused on what's in this book and looking back at

830
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 13: how Joe Biden operated and has physical or mental acuity,

831
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 13: is time we're not spending talking about what Donald Trump

832
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,760
Speaker 13: and the Republicans are doing with tax cuts in medicaid.

833
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 13: So from a strategic standpoint, waste waste of time. And

834
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 13: I think like if the Democratic Party is going to

835
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 13: think about how we go forward, it's about like how

836
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 13: do we connect with people. You can look at different

837
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 13: pieces of like where we have or haven't invested resources,

838
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 13: where we haven't have fallen off, connecting with certain pockets

839
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 13: of the country, and what policies that we want to

840
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 13: put in place that would connect with those folks that

841
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 13: to me, feels like a much more valuable use of

842
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 13: time not looking back at whether Joe Biden should or

843
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 13: shouldn't have run. The reality is like, it's clear he

844
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 13: shouldn't have run. We lost, like Donald Trump as the president.

845
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 13: So let's pick it up. Where do we go from here?

846
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:55,800
Speaker 3: Does this sound untrue? Does this sound like conversations you overheard?

847
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 13: No, I mean I think anybody who was we talked

848
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 13: about this. I remember last last year.

849
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, Joe Biden is not like he was in hiding.

850
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 3: He would would.

851
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 13: Walk to Air Force One, he would walk in the

852
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 13: in the White House, he'd walk up to the podium, right.

853
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 13: I remember traveling with him to the NATO summit in Europe.

854
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 13: It wasn't like he was somehow missing in action. People

855
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 13: saw that his he wasn't walking as well as he

856
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 13: should have, and that he had stumbles at the podium.

857
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 13: So this is all a bit of DC drama that

858
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 13: I don't think. I mean, if you take a step back,

859
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 13: none of this is a surprise or shocking to anybody,

860
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 13: And it doesn't matter in the current day and age

861
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 13: or the current political nds.

862
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 3: I don't know if that sounds like news to you. Rick,

863
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 3: We talked about this a lot in real time while

864
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 3: these observations were being had by some But I'm looking

865
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 3: at a book largely full of anonymous sources telling stories

866
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 3: like this. Is that the point here?

867
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 14: Yeah, it's kind of reprehensible from my point of view,

868
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 14: especially when you look at the campaigns and and unfortunately

869
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 14: this happens quite a bit. You lose and you got

870
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 14: you gotta pin the blame here. We're gonna pin blame

871
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 14: on the candidate himself. Every single one of the people

872
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 14: who are an anonymous source were probably in the position

873
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 14: of being on a campaign, being in the White House,

874
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 14: or being a part of the administration somehow. And if

875
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 14: that's the case, why didn't they quit? If they were

876
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:18,240
Speaker 14: so you know, shocked by the behavior of the president

877
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 14: and the people around him, why did they partaken that?

878
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 14: George Clooney, great example. Oh, he just had this epiphany

879
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 14: at a fundraiser. You know, everybody knew that it was

880
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 14: the George Joe Biden.

881
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 3: You know, before the election cycle.

882
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 14: Everybody could have spent a year before the election began

883
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 14: saying now's the time for this president to retire and

884
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 14: going to him and doing that. Instead, they do it

885
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 14: after primarily a you know, misstep, a failure in a

886
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 14: presidential debate a little too late. Everyone there in that

887
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 14: book had a reason for him to be on the

888
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 14: campaign and speaking, and yet none of them took the

889
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 14: risk personally to say, hey, you ought to get out.

890
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 13: And I think, thinking back though, as you're talking, I'm

891
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 13: thinking about what the view of a staff er, someone

892
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 13: working in the White House and thinking about all this

893
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 13: stuff you did get done, all of the stuff you

894
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 13: still had to get done. So all the things like chips,

895
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 13: infrastructure and you know, the rescue plan, all these things

896
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 13: that were being implemented under the leadership that wouldn't have

897
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 13: happened without Joe Biden being president. You want to see

898
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 13: those things through. So it's a little bit hard to

899
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:27,360
Speaker 13: take a step back and say, oh, you know, I

900
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 13: got to do this part of my job, or I'm

901
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 13: helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia's invasion. I'm not gonna

902
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 13: it is hard to say I'm going to put all

903
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 13: that aside, all the good work that I'm doing. Sure,

904
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 13: just because I think the president can't. It isn't quite

905
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 13: up to where the level he was when he ran

906
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:46,800
Speaker 13: for a president.

907
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 11: You know, a few years ago.

908
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,720
Speaker 13: I think where the Democrats should go forward. Now, look,

909
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 13: this is what we got done under Joe Biden. These

910
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 13: are the things that made a positive difference. This is

911
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 13: our vision going forward. That has to be the focus.

912
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 13: Anything about like whether he couldn't walk to Air Force

913
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 13: one again, to me, I just think it's a huge

914
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 13: waste of time.

915
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 3: It's kind of ironic. George Clooney is the man raising

916
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 3: all this money for him, making him relatable, and is

917
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:14,719
Speaker 3: the one that actually puts the dagger with the in

918
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 3: the heart with the op ed that came out something

919
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 3: like two weeks after this supposedly happened. Is there a

920
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,360
Speaker 3: lesson learned there for the type of surrogates you're rolling

921
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:22,359
Speaker 3: with on the campaign. Yeah.

922
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 14: Look, I always think it's dangerous to go into the

923
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 14: lions den of LA and start hobnobbing with a bunch

924
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 14: of liberal you know, TV and radio and music and

925
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 14: movie stars. They are usually out of the mainstream of

926
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 14: the American public to begin with, right, So look at

927
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 14: the outpouring of support they all gave to Kamala Harrison.

928
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 14: It didn't amount to a single boat.

929
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 11: I really, I.

930
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 14: Think politicians sometimes get stars in their eyes.

931
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,359
Speaker 3: Oh, I get to hang out with George Clooney. Hey,

932
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 3: I'd like to hang out with Clooney. Come on, you

933
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 3: know barbecue, right.

934
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 14: I bet he'd love to be But I would never

935
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 14: have him, you know, on a stage of the candidate.

936
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,439
Speaker 14: You know, I'm sorry, you know, you're a great movie star.

937
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 14: Find me somebody who has a policy issue interesting or

938
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 14: a point of view that will be good for the campaign.

939
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 3: That's usually not. And he got Barack Obama up there

940
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 3: too at that event, Adam. You know, it just begs

941
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 3: the whole question, and everyone's trying to relitigate this whole

942
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:21,840
Speaker 3: thing that I hear Democrats either say he never should

943
00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 3: have run, and you just made that implication for reelection,

944
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 3: that is that that was kind of the original sin.

945
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 3: That was the mistake. Others say people appreciate consistency, and

946
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 3: what would have happened if he had stayed in the race.

947
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:37,360
Speaker 3: Would you've done better than Kamala Harris?

948
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 13: I mean, at all the polls that you say, no,

949
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 13: way to that, I don't think. I mean, there's any

950
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 13: credible case.

951
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 3: Could she?

952
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 8: Then?

953
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 3: Then the follow on is could she have done better?

954
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 3: She had two years to run.

955
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 13: I think taking a step back and This is something

956
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 13: that I think we just if we're being honest about

957
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 13: the politics. The two times that Democrats have lost Donald Trump,

958
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 13: we haven't had a real competitive primary. The one time

959
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 13: we did beat him, you had a real competitive primary

960
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 13: and Joe Biden won, you know, and like you can

961
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 13: say how the party coaliester around him, but he won

962
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 13: the primary in a very open, wide open primary, and

963
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:10,800
Speaker 13: he got elected president. So I think if there's a

964
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 13: lesson for Democrats to learn going forward is how do

965
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 13: we have a full robust primary process where we air

966
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:19,719
Speaker 13: and look at who should be the best nomb And

967
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 13: it is valuable because you get around the country, you

968
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 13: talk to voters, you spread the Democratic brand, the Democratic

969
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 13: gospel about what we want to do for the country.

970
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 3: And there's value in that.

971
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 13: There's value in going to talking to the people around

972
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 13: the country that you just lose without having a competitive primary.

973
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 13: And I think some of that that we exceeded expectations

974
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 13: in the mid terms in twenty twenty two, and so

975
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 13: there wasn't this clamor to change horses at that point.

976
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 13: There's a lot of time between twenty twenty two and

977
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 13: twenty twenty four, and at the end of the day, Like,

978
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,320
Speaker 13: I don't know, with where the global economy was with inflation,

979
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 13: I don't know how much difference it actually would have

980
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 13: made in the outcome.

981
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 3: Is there a failure in journalism here when we've got

982
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,600
Speaker 3: people who were covering the campaign now writing books that

983
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 3: are telling a different story or are they simply at

984
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,200
Speaker 3: the mercy of their sources and they're relaying what they're hearing.

985
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 3: Should there have been more focus on this by the

986
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 3: White House Press Corps?

987
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 14: I think that the White House Press Corps gave it

988
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:17,720
Speaker 14: a hard book.

989
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 3: You know, Adam I was in the White House. They

990
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 3: did not hold back.

991
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:26,920
Speaker 14: I mean, you know, there were all these stories and

992
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:30,799
Speaker 14: so there's plenty of juxtaposition of that, and and that

993
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 14: all led to him getting out of the race. So

994
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,399
Speaker 14: you know, it wasn't like that didn't happen. I think

995
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 14: this is more a story of the underbelly of Washington,

996
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 14: d C. Where people take advantage and try and make

997
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 14: money and brandish their image by attacking people who are

998
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 14: already down and out. You know, Washington has an old

999
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 14: line only kicked them when they're down right, and so

1000
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 14: this is a classic example of that.

1001
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 3: Wow, incredible, It makes you wonder what the next book

1002
00:48:55,719 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 3: is going to be. You know, the flurry, the avalanche

1003
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:00,799
Speaker 3: of Trump books, It got to the point where you

1004
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 3: just couldn't tell them apart. Is Joe Biden gonna have

1005
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 3: his own version of that? Yeah, I'm sure there will be.

1006
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 13: Everybody got a book deal and they'll write about the

1007
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,359
Speaker 13: campaign and they'll you know that. So this will be

1008
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 13: a poor little one out for Chris Maher just came

1009
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 13: on to help Biden defend this because it's going to

1010
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 13: be like this for the next several months.

1011
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 3: Is that why he's showing up on the view and

1012
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:21,399
Speaker 3: make it speak? Yeah, I mean, I think that's part

1013
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 3: of it.

1014
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,359
Speaker 13: And I think if you care about your legacy, I mean,

1015
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 13: like we know, history is written by the winners, right,

1016
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:30,240
Speaker 13: and so you got to try to defend your legacy

1017
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 13: and talk about what you feel like you accomplished. I

1018
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,280
Speaker 13: assume Biden will write a book of his own talking

1019
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 13: about what he feels he accomplished. But I don't think

1020
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 13: any of that helps Democrats take back the House and

1021
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 13: the Senate in twenty twenty six, win the White House

1022
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 13: in twenty twenty eight, and more importantly, regain the and

1023
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,799
Speaker 13: rebuild the Democratic Party's brand, so that we are a

1024
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 13: majority making party across the country for decades to come.

1025
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 3: Something it's attractive to kind of go away when you're done.

1026
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 3: You know, a lah, Johnny Carson, if if you were,

1027
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,680
Speaker 3: you know, helping Joe Biden during his campaigns the way

1028
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:05,799
Speaker 3: you did John McCain or other politicians, would you tell

1029
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 3: him to go home at this point? Stay home, don't

1030
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:08,920
Speaker 3: go on the view, don't write a book.

1031
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:11,799
Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean, you know, look, we even had a

1032
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 14: point of view that you know, you always had to

1033
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 14: do your day job. So you know, when John McCain

1034
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 14: lost presidency in two thousand and eight.

1035
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 3: He was a senator. Yeah, go do your day job.

1036
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,399
Speaker 3: Don't act like a president. Go do your day job.

1037
00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:24,240
Speaker 3: Be a good senator.

1038
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 14: Joe Biden is retired, I mean for all intentsive purposes,

1039
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:32,800
Speaker 14: he is going to be doing things like writing books

1040
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 14: and maybe penning some articles. And I don't begrudge him

1041
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:41,359
Speaker 14: for defending his image, but don't do more damage than good, right,

1042
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 14: I mean, like, how many times did we sit in

1043
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 14: here during a special at Bloomberg watching an important speech

1044
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 14: by the president right in trying to wrap, you know,

1045
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 14: re establish himself, And it was worse than the reporting

1046
00:50:55,800 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 14: before him. So do no harm, right, I mean the

1047
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 14: ice cream in the beach, Write a great book. You

1048
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 14: have a lot to talk about in your career and

1049
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 14: move on.

1050
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 3: Don't listen to Trump news conferences. Right, Rick Davis and

1051
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 3: Adam Hodge are great panel today. Thanks for listening to

1052
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 3: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if

1053
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 3: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get

1054
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:25,240
Speaker 3: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday

1055
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 3: from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.