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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

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Speaker 2: and then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

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Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

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Speaker 2: on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: I hope all the moms had a great Sunday, and

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Speaker 1: welcome back to reality. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington of

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Speaker 1: the fastest show in Politics, live from Washington here on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. And if

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Speaker 1: we just take a second here to stop and listen

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Speaker 1: and look around, we realize we're in the eye of

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Speaker 1: the hurricane. Lawmakers aren't back till tomorrow. President's making his

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Speaker 1: way back from rehob Beach. And yes, I know there's

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Speaker 1: a trial underway in New York, and we're going to

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Speaker 1: get to that a little bit later on this hour

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Speaker 1: with June Grosso and our panel. But we have an

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Speaker 1: enormous opportunity here, and we're taking this opportunity for you

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Speaker 1: to bring you a series of important conversations with thought

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Speaker 1: leaders that bring context. That's what we promise here at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Right this is our chance today before we get into

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Speaker 1: the fray of breaking news and the divisions that surround us, divisions,

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Speaker 1: by the way, that are reinforced by an important series

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Speaker 1: of polls today conducted by Siena College along with The

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Speaker 1: New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer. Will get to

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Speaker 1: some of this later on, because you've certainly heard the

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Speaker 1: story before, split down the middle as the story of

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Speaker 1: America and whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump win the election,

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Speaker 1: it'll probably be by a couple of percentage points and

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Speaker 1: will likely be decided by only a handful of states.

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Speaker 1: And so we seek context in terms of how we

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Speaker 1: got here and maybe find some solutions about how we

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Speaker 1: get beyond this point with Seth Kaplan, who I've been

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Speaker 1: looking forward to bringing you here on Bloomberg Radio and

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Speaker 1: on YouTube. You can find us right now for this conversation.

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Speaker 1: Go to YouTube and search Bloomberg Global News. You'll find

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Speaker 1: our live stream. Seth is a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University,

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Speaker 1: and he's author of this book, Fragile Neighborhoods. An expert

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Speaker 1: on fragile states. He brings it down to the zip

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Speaker 1: code level, which apparently is where we find the truth

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Speaker 1: in this conversation. Seth, it's great to see you. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Joe, pleasure to be here.

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Speaker 1: You've done remarkable work here in our sort of off

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Speaker 1: air conversations. At least you've mapped out a very interesting

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Speaker 1: look at things. You're in demand right now as author

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Speaker 1: of this book in both red and blue states, red

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Speaker 1: and blue capitals and towns and neighborhoods. You're all about

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Speaker 1: social contexts. So when we look at this Siena poll

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Speaker 1: or any of the others. Bloomberg will have its swing

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Speaker 1: state pole out next week, and we see essentially two countries,

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Speaker 1: two Americas, are the answers at the hyperlocal level.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I would say yes. I think we always

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Speaker 3: need to remember how is the average American experiencing life

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Speaker 3: in this country? And I think there's a huge gap

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Speaker 3: between with somebody in Kentucky and someone in Washington, or

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Speaker 3: someone in Ohio or someone in Michigan some of these

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Speaker 3: key states. And I think people's opinions about what's happening

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Speaker 3: is we talk about inflation and other material concerns. But

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Speaker 3: I would tell you that to the extent that there's anger,

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Speaker 3: to the extent that there's frustration is because people don't

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Speaker 3: feel the society and the economy is delivering for them

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Speaker 3: at a hyper local level.

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Speaker 1: Now there are examples of where it is working, and

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Speaker 1: you found in your research that it does not matter

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Speaker 1: on levels of wealth or income. Necessarily, the zip codes

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Speaker 1: that are working seem to have little to do with money.

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Speaker 3: I think if you look at the level of social connection,

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Speaker 3: the abundance of local institutions, you can tell a lot

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Speaker 3: about how people are experiencing life. When someone lives in

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Speaker 3: a place and they don't know their neighbors, they don't

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Speaker 3: have any local associations or local schools, or local churches,

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Speaker 3: or local shops that they can have relationships with or

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Speaker 3: they can join, I think you're experiencing life completely differently.

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Speaker 3: And so when I look at my research, you certainly

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Speaker 3: see a problem of what I would call spade deal

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Speaker 3: any place based inequality economically, but there's also this great

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Speaker 3: place based inequality socially. We have economic poverty, and we

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Speaker 3: have a lot of social poverty that we never talk about.

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Speaker 1: But that's the part that you are talking to us

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Speaker 1: that's different. Yes, So what do we need to learn

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Speaker 1: when you wake up and see the pole of the day.

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Speaker 1: As I keep pointing out here and you see forty

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Speaker 1: nine fifty one. Here we go again, and everybody hates

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Speaker 1: each other in Washington. We're lacking social nourishment on what level.

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Speaker 3: And what we're again, let's think about zip codes, Let's

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Speaker 3: think lower than that. Let's think about neighborhoods. What are

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Speaker 3: people actually experiencing So I would be looking at I mean,

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Speaker 3: you can map it out what places are doing well economically,

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Speaker 3: which we all talk about, but I would also be

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Speaker 3: asking what places are doing well socially. And you can

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Speaker 3: look at some simple numbers, and I'm pretty certain you're

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Speaker 3: going to find that people's attitude towards institutions, trust of politicians,

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Speaker 3: feelings towards Washington, attitude towards the political candidates will very

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Speaker 3: much depend upon not only some economic indicators we'll talk about,

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Speaker 3: but very much about how they're experiencing life in their neighborhood.

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Speaker 1: Let's define that level of social frustration. Is it because

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Speaker 1: we're not going to church, We're not shopping in the

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Speaker 1: same places, I'm not going out to the same restaurants

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Speaker 1: on Saturday?

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Speaker 3: What is the practical We can look at it. Many

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Speaker 3: likes levels it's churches, it's local businesses. Imagine you're in

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Speaker 3: a place in which all the local businesses have closed

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Speaker 3: and all you can do is go to a Walmart,

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Speaker 3: and so you have no relationships with Walmart. You just

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Speaker 3: have transactions. Imagine that there used to be a whole

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Speaker 3: lots and lots of local institutions, you know, like the

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Speaker 3: Veterans Association and Rotary Club, and now we have we

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Speaker 3: have nothing. We have large nonprofits doing the delivering services.

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Speaker 3: So I used to be able to participate. We used

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Speaker 3: to have lots of volunteering in this country. We have

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Speaker 3: very little volunteering locally. We used to have a lot

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Speaker 3: of local giving of your time and your resources.

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Speaker 1: That's way down side effect though, or what's causing that

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Speaker 1: drop and involvement.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think there's so many causes. It's the

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Speaker 3: changes in our careers and our ambitions. People seek out

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Speaker 3: national goals, people don't seek out local goals. It's changes

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Speaker 3: and basically people going back a few generations, people would

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Speaker 3: not have cars to you have. You have careers. You

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Speaker 3: have the nationalization of politics, the nationalization of business to

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Speaker 3: some extent, the nationalization of nonprofits. Even government is more

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Speaker 3: centralized and local authorities have less to influence.

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Speaker 1: That's why your work is so important to us here

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Speaker 1: because I keep hearing every day on this broadcast, and

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Speaker 1: it's true that all politics are national, that we're running

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Speaker 1: national campaigns, even for local office. In this case, right,

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Speaker 1: it's either Maga or Biden or whatever the heck it

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Speaker 1: is that you're going to put your label on that day.

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Speaker 1: Did the shopping mall and the destruction of Main Street

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Speaker 1: start all of this?

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Speaker 3: Well, I would say if you're asking about the frustration

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Speaker 3: and the alienation and the anger, I would say yes.

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Speaker 3: And that's your only driving a large share of the population.

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Speaker 3: They don't believe our political class and our elites, and

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Speaker 3: our major cities where a lot of decisions are made.

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Speaker 3: They don't think that those people and places are delivering

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Speaker 3: for what used to be Main Street. And I certainly

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Speaker 3: think that plays an enormous role in what people are

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Speaker 3: experiencing and how they're voting. And if we're thinking about

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Speaker 3: what we could be doing differently, we ought to be

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Speaker 3: asking ourselves, how do we ensure every American lives in

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Speaker 3: a flourishing neighborhood, a flourishing zip code, and the politician

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Speaker 3: who steps up and says, this is my vision to

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Speaker 3: ensure that our country works more horizontally and less vertically,

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Speaker 3: to ensure that every place is gaining socially economically. The

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Speaker 3: politician who can speak to that need is going to

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Speaker 3: win a lot of votes.

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Speaker 1: Is't that something? It sounds like the social context follows

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Speaker 1: the money in many cases. Though, right when we were

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Speaker 1: done with shopping malls, we decided we'd all go to Amazon.

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Speaker 1: We asked for these problems.

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Speaker 3: I mean, certainly there's a consumer demand, but I think

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Speaker 3: we've made a lot of choices.

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Speaker 1: Was that just because it was easier though, or because

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Speaker 1: we didn't want to be around other people?

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Speaker 3: Again? I believe that we all want to be around

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Speaker 3: other people, do we? Well, what do you do in

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Speaker 3: your free time? You go into your cave.

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Speaker 1: And I'm lucky enough to talk to people for a living.

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Speaker 1: I'm probably not the best exact.

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Speaker 3: So you go home and don't talk to anybody. I

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Speaker 3: bet you know, I bet you know your neighbors and

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Speaker 3: things like that. So I would just say, I mean,

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Speaker 3: as a person who I live in a neighborhood, that's joyful.

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Speaker 3: How many people listening or watching today live in a

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Speaker 3: neighbor so It's joyful because I know hundreds of.

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Speaker 1: Children laughing in the street.

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Speaker 3: You hear children. I go into the local restaurant and

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Speaker 3: I smile and say lor to the owner. I say

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Speaker 3: hello to a few people. They're not my friends, but

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Speaker 3: I know them. I know their faces. It's enough that

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Speaker 3: I have a relationship. If there's an emergency, my my

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Speaker 3: daughter drops her son. Just happened several years ago, and

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Speaker 3: he's got a bleeding chin. My wife picks up the

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Speaker 3: son and without even telling me, runs down the street.

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Speaker 3: What is she doing? I don't even know where she went.

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Speaker 3: Does he even call me? Comes back in thirty minutes,

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Speaker 3: he's bandaged up. She went to the nearest nurse. Do

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Speaker 3: you know where the nearest nurse is? To where you

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Speaker 3: imagine a life in which you know your neighbors. You

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Speaker 3: have lots of institutions. I'm on the board of an institution.

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Speaker 3: I'm very involved with the second institution organizations. The more

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Speaker 3: we feel that we can control our context, the more

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Speaker 3: we feel we can contribute, the more we feel that

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Speaker 3: our surroundings are familiar and I have a stake in it,

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Speaker 3: I will feel agency.

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Speaker 1: So you just said everything This is about feeling like you're.

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Speaker 3: A stakeholder, feeling like you're a stake So.

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Speaker 1: How do you maintain that in an upwardly mobile economy

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Speaker 1: where people are moving for work, they get a better house, whatever.

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Speaker 1: There are so many reasons to disrupt the neighborhood you're describing.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's true, but a good neighborhood in America will

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Speaker 3: only have about one out of twenty households moving every year.

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Speaker 3: A neighbor that's not doing well will have one in

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Speaker 3: four about that. So if you think about think about

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Speaker 3: we talk about that, and the average American lives within

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Speaker 3: twenty miles from where they're born. So yes, we're upperly mobile.

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Speaker 3: But I think most Americans and I would say it's

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Speaker 3: if you have kids, it's more true. If you're old,

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Speaker 3: it's more true if you're young. Your neighborhood matters so

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Speaker 3: much to your well being. And so how do we

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Speaker 3: do that? We need policies that will empower neighborhoods. We

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Speaker 3: need government that works more around not just we don't

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Speaker 3: need more housing units, Yes of course we do, but

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Speaker 3: we don't need government to work around housing, education, healthcare.

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Speaker 3: What would happen if government work more on making sure

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Speaker 3: every neighborhood was flourishing. What would happen if for zoning

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Speaker 3: wasn't single function but was multifunction. Therefore neighborhoods would have

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Speaker 3: places to meet. What would happen if libraries were not

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Speaker 3: just places to fill knowledge gaps? We don't have knowledge

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Speaker 3: gaps today, we have relationship gaps. So what happened if

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Speaker 3: neighbor libraries were broken up and distributed so they became

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Speaker 3: more like neighborhood hubs? So you can think through every

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Speaker 3: rule were thinking libraries?

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Speaker 1: Our lawmakers or policy makers are not though, because we

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Speaker 1: layer on the internet on top of this world. You're

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Speaker 1: very riving politics here. Yeah, you've got a lot of

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Speaker 1: lonely people out there with a big megaphone. Now yeah,

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Speaker 1: what does that do to distort the neighborhood?

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Speaker 3: I mean again, if you're in a strong neighborhood and

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Speaker 3: you stakeholder, was great. So I'm a stakeholder my neighborhood. Yes,

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Speaker 3: I'm more likely to not be on the megaphone angry.

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Speaker 3: I'm more likely to engage with people. I might not

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Speaker 3: only be talking to my neighbors. I might be doing

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Speaker 3: something or someone might be doing something with me. I'm

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Speaker 3: with them together, and you would feel that your role

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Speaker 3: to be influential is local. If people have nothing local

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Speaker 3: they can engage with, of course they feel the only

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Speaker 3: way I can matter is national campaigns, national politics, and

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Speaker 3: that it's all abstract, it's all far away, it all

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't say it's very productive. If you think local

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Speaker 3: and you engage local, you actually can make a really

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Speaker 3: big difference in real people and real places. So, yes,

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Speaker 3: the Internet makes things harder, It's like headwinds. But this

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Speaker 3: trend goes back to nineteen sixties. It's been going on

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Speaker 3: for decades. The internet is an accelerator, but it's not

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Speaker 3: to start, and we need to rethink institution after institution

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Speaker 3: and policy after policy, and consider what does it mean

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Speaker 3: for relationships even schools. We think of schools how well

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Speaker 3: do kids do on tests? But community schools great incubator

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Speaker 3: of relationships. How often do we think of schools as

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Speaker 3: a way to incubate and nurture the relationships between kids,

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Speaker 3: the relationships between parents. We don't even think about in

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Speaker 3: our debates about what it is we're doing and how

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Speaker 3: it affects people.

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Speaker 1: I've got a minute left. I want to end with

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Speaker 1: a dose of hope. Here. Yes, well, I see young

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Speaker 1: people going home, going back to small towns, maybe to

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Speaker 1: open a business, maybe to do something different on main street,

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Speaker 1: that the touchstone means more to them than people in

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Speaker 1: my generation or maybe yes, our generation. Is that how

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Speaker 1: this ends? Is that the solution?

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Speaker 3: I think, yes, there is a tendent or trend in

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Speaker 3: that direction. We need to.

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Speaker 1: Encourage the back last year, there's.

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Speaker 3: Organized I mean the internet, the positive side of the Internet,

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Speaker 3: I mean the negative we talk about. The positive is

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Speaker 3: I can move to Cleveland, as a friend of mine did. Yes,

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Speaker 3: I can move back to eastern Kentucky as I know

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Speaker 3: people do. I can stay in Kansas or southern Minnesota,

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Speaker 3: and I can still be connected, and I can still

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Speaker 3: jump on a plane. I can still do a lot

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Speaker 3: virtual It's upside. We ought to be encouraging small business development,

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Speaker 3: nonprofit development, encouraging young people to be leaders in their communities,

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Speaker 3: and not all end up in five cities.

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Speaker 1: About that.

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Speaker 3: That would be very helpful for the country.

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Speaker 1: What an absolutely wonderful conversation, Seth Kaplan. Thank you for

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Speaker 1: coming to see us the tonic that we need in

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Speaker 1: a moment like this, and nowhere else will you hear

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Speaker 1: a conversation like this today but on Bloomberg the book

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Speaker 1: again Fragile Neighborhoods, seth Kaplan. Thank you for being with us.

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Speaker 1: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken

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Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 2: roun Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: Here in Washington. A lot of the conversation in recent

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Speaker 4: days show has in fact been focused on geopolitics, the

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Speaker 4: US relationship with allies as well as with adversaries. Of course,

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Speaker 4: Israel policy front and center, but increasingly, especially in the

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Speaker 4: context of the twenty twenty four campaign, trade and competition

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Speaker 4: with both allies and adversaries has been very much in focus,

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Speaker 4: as we have the Biden administration getting set tomorrow to

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Speaker 4: announce new tariffs or the higher tariffs on things like

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Speaker 4: Chinese evs and solar cells, and of course other countries

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Speaker 4: in addition to the second largest economy in the world,

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Speaker 4: have to be paying attention to that too.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's absolutely right. Emmanuel Macron is right in the

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Speaker 1: middle of it. Obviously, as the leader of France, he

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Speaker 1: has unique insights on a number of the issues that

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Speaker 1: you just mentioned in a conversation that we're going to

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Speaker 1: bring you now here on Bloomberg. The tariffs did come up, Kaylee,

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Speaker 1: just one of many topics that arose in this sweeping

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Speaker 1: interview at the Choose France summit, where the President was

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Speaker 1: invited and brought foreign executives from around the world and

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Speaker 1: has done so for the past seven years. Here sat

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Speaker 1: down with Bloomberg's editor in chief John Mickelthwaite and they

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Speaker 1: began their conversation on investments in France. Let's listen.

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Speaker 5: We delivered a lot of reform since the very beginning

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Speaker 5: twenty seventeen. Tax cuts fed techs. On capital gains, we

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Speaker 5: decreased from thirty three point three to twenty five percent

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Speaker 5: corporate taxes. We made a lot of reforms on labor

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Speaker 5: law and after COVID. During this the past two years,

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Speaker 5: with inflation war in Ukraine, we passed reform and on

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Speaker 5: pension scheme and unemployment mechanisms. I don't see a lot

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Speaker 5: of countries around us having done so, so you.

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Speaker 6: Don't just want to be compared to Europe.

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Speaker 5: To you, no, no, no, My point is. My point

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Speaker 5: is just to say we delivered, We do deliver, and

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Speaker 5: we will deliver. And this is why we will launch

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Speaker 5: this week a new bunch of reform on labor market.

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Speaker 5: We will launch a new bunch of simplification and attractiveness

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Speaker 5: package for finance, and we will prepare for We've already

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Speaker 5: launched new simplification and we will prepare for September a

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Speaker 5: new bunch of reform on label markets. So it's a

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Speaker 5: permanent work. But I see where we come from and

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Speaker 5: where we want to go. France, who was lagging behind

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Speaker 5: clearly in Europe because of too much bureaucracy, a strong system,

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Speaker 5: a lot of strength, but lack of competitiveness. I think

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Speaker 5: we bridge I don't think. I see that we clearly

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Speaker 5: bridge the gap with the others and now we are

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Speaker 5: in Europe. My concern is not just France, is Europe

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Speaker 5: in comparison with US and China. And this is the

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Speaker 5: point you mentioned. During the three past decades. If you

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Speaker 5: take this three the last three decades, we created half

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Speaker 5: of the value per capita created by the US. Why

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Speaker 5: lack of innovation, lack of investment. This is the main reason.

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Speaker 5: This is why now my top priority is to have

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Speaker 5: a European policy saying we have to be much more innovative,

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Speaker 5: we have to create a much more efficient capital MA gets,

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Speaker 5: we have to invest much more from a common budget

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Speaker 5: as Europeans and from the private sector, and we have

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Speaker 5: to deliver in parallel our decabination, because I do believe

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Speaker 5: that climates, digital growth and job creation are the stripillars

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Speaker 5: of what we have to deliver.

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Speaker 6: And those we will come. Go through all of those.

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Speaker 7: But just on that point about the European economy, you

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Speaker 7: had a full scale attack on it at the Sorbonne

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Speaker 7: where you said it is sclerotic, it is being left behind.

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Speaker 7: Do you think that from the EU's point of view,

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Speaker 7: that sclerotic economy is a bigger long term challenge and say,

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Speaker 7: I think this is.

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Speaker 5: One Aladimir, I think this is clearly linked to what's

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Speaker 5: happening as well. But we have to completely reset our model.

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Speaker 5: I think now France clearly is one of the leading economy.

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Speaker 5: We are number one in attractiveness. We've been wandering the

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Speaker 5: past five years, and if you take job creation, growth

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Speaker 5: we are one or second in the Eurozone.

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Speaker 6: Do you think so?

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Speaker 5: You might own? So we are here now when I

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Speaker 5: take Europe and especially the EU as a whole, But

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Speaker 5: it's as well for UK. We have this issue in

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Speaker 5: terms of business model. Why because we had low cost

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Speaker 5: energy thanks to Russia, production thanks to santral and Eastern

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Speaker 5: European countries with quite low costs, a market for exports China,

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Speaker 5: and a geopolitical umbrella US. These pillars are being completely

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Speaker 5: revised totally, yes, and it's no more valid. So we

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Speaker 5: have to reinvent one and how by creating much more

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Speaker 5: value on our own by being much more innovative, by

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Speaker 5: creating much more jobs and jobs with value, good jobs,

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Speaker 5: I would say, on our continent. The key point is

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Speaker 5: deliver much more innovation and productivity policy public and privates.

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Speaker 5: The second key reforms is to accelerate the cabination and

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Speaker 5: especially our electricity policy, because through renewables and nuclear energy

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Speaker 5: we can deliver low carbon, sovereign and low cost energy,

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Speaker 5: which is much more than important gas and fossil fuels. Third,

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Speaker 5: we need much more investment based on common budget. On

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Speaker 5: my view, I mean based on public reports and figures.

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Speaker 5: We need one trillion more in terms of budget, in

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Speaker 5: terms of spending, and in parallel, we have to make

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Speaker 5: the capital market union a reality, which is not.

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Speaker 7: Yet col market union, because you have here an example,

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Speaker 7: you have BNP.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: Now probably Europe's definitely the US owns most successful bank,

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Speaker 7: worth eighty billion dollars. But you know you are entertaining

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Speaker 7: these people like JP Morgan and someone JP Morgan is

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Speaker 7: worth five hundred and fifty billion. It's it's nine times

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Speaker 7: as big Bank of America, four times as big. And

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Speaker 7: the reason why is BMP Parry Bar cannot expand throughout

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Speaker 7: the European Union and take over other banks.

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Speaker 5: This is very cool.

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Speaker 7: You would like to see BMP take over one of these,

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Speaker 7: take over a German bank or an Italian one.

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Speaker 5: I want. I mean, we do need a consolidation, but

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Speaker 5: we do need as well an actual domestic market as Europeans,

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Speaker 5: which is not the case. We have to deal with

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Speaker 5: twenty seven regulations. You know, an energy, finance and Delco

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Speaker 5: are the key sig doors were single market doesn't exist.

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Speaker 5: It was a choice at the very beginning. I do

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Speaker 5: agree that we have now to open this box and

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Speaker 5: to deliver a single market approach. With much more efficient.

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Speaker 5: So our our view is that now we want to

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Speaker 5: elaborate Fanco German consensus on capital marketingion to have a

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Speaker 5: single system of resolution, a single supervision and a much

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Speaker 5: more integrated capital marketingion.

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Speaker 7: Would you be happy with, say Spain Santandre coming and

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Speaker 7: buying society general, I.

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Speaker 5: Mean part of that, it's part of the market. But

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Speaker 5: dealing as Europeans means that you need consolidation as Europeans,

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Speaker 5: you're not.

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Speaker 6: So it could be cross emerges for directions.

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Speaker 5: But this one is for banking union, it's already on track.

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Speaker 5: Now we have to do it for capital marketingion, which

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Speaker 5: is broader and even more difficult. But we started to

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Speaker 5: do so at a political level during the last Console,

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Speaker 5: and I do believe that we can find aco German agreement.

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Speaker 5: But why I want you to just anderstand the challenge

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Speaker 5: for US. Seventy five percent of our financing as Europeans

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Speaker 5: go through banks and in so we need much more consolidation.

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Speaker 5: But we need a clear circulation of the savings all

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Speaker 5: around the place. This is the first objective to be

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Speaker 5: much more efficient and to be sure that our savings

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Speaker 5: will be invested in the right sectors and the right geographies. Second,

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Speaker 5: every year three hundred billion savings goes to finance the

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Speaker 5: US economy because we are not attractive. So in parallel

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Speaker 5: with this capital market union and the simplification having an

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Speaker 5: equal single market, we clearly need the same level playing

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Speaker 5: field as the US in terms of financing, which means

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Speaker 5: when you take solvency in Basel, as long as it's

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Speaker 5: not implemented by the US competitors, it should not be

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Speaker 5: implemented by the European competitors. Otherwise this is a killer

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Speaker 5: for his taking because these regulations just prevent you, i mean,

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Speaker 5: our banks from investing in equity, which is exactly what

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Speaker 5: we need. And if you take the key driver of

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Speaker 5: this difference between the US and Europe, the key driver

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Speaker 5: is the fact that the US economy innovated and invested

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Speaker 5: much more iniquity and innovation than the European economy. I

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Speaker 5: think we did much better during in POSTCOVIC than what

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Speaker 5: we did during the financial crisis. But now this is

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Speaker 5: a totally new world and we do need this new

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Speaker 5: business model for the Europeans, more innovation, more investment, single

436
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 5: market and capital market onion, and a relevant trade policy.

437
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 5: Because I want to at this point known the US

438
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 5: and now China are compliant with the WUTO. Today we

439
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 5: are the only one in the room to respect just

440
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 5: the regulation of the BLUTO, and we are to know

441
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 5: if we are to open both of them protect their

442
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 5: players and the economies. Can we have to do the thing?

443
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 7: Can we come back to the issue of China later?

444
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:02,719
Speaker 7: But just another French company, Total Energy Totals CEO, has

445
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:07,199
Speaker 7: talked about moving its primary listing away from France towards

446
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 7: New York. Would you be happy with that?

447
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 5: Not at all? And I would be very surprised. No,

448
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 5: I I wait for any confirmation. I understood it was

449
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 5: remorse so, but.

450
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 7: It's interesting that it's tied with the idea that he

451
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 7: would face extra ESG measures here that he would not

452
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 7: face in America.

453
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 6: So thinks that would affect his valuation.

454
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 5: Do you mean that we are more serious than the

455
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,360
Speaker 5: US in terms of green economy and transition?

456
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 6: Yes, But you.

457
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 7: Also in your speech at the Sorbonne you said, as

458
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 7: I paraphrase, you said you cannot let decarbonization and exactly

459
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 7: be enemies.

460
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 6: And this would be exactly be an example.

461
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 5: And this is my point. But the point is just

462
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 5: we have to be sure when we regulate. We should

463
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,919
Speaker 5: not have regulate. Yes, and I think now we have

464
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 5: to deliver. We need in your op much more investment.

465
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,679
Speaker 5: We have to cut that TBS have more flexibility. But

466
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 5: in parallel everybody has to be seious. I saw a

467
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 5: lot of funds, a lot of asset managers seeing we

468
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 5: are with you on climate change. Where is a beef?

469
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 5: Are you sure you are sufficiently compliant? Are you sure

470
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 5: you are clearly addressing to the same issues. This is

471
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 5: my point, and this is why we need the resting

472
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 5: cognization between the US and Europe. The restrict cognization is

473
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 5: number one. The US regulation in terms of cremachant as

474
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 5: should be more serious and realigned on the European once. Second,

475
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 5: the Europeans have to invest much more and be more

476
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 5: serious and realign themselves on the US.

477
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 7: I let just to ask you for another French company.

478
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 7: I've asked you about total and BMP, LVMH. I look,

479
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 7: and nobody has done better under the Macron presidency. He

480
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 7: is now his wealth has increased by one hundred and

481
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 7: seventy billion euros and he is now the richest man

482
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 7: in the world, probably the first Frenchman to have that

483
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 7: honor since Napoleon, and I think we can both say

484
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 7: brother to mister na he's done it in a more

485
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 7: peaceful way. But it's interesting you look at the people

486
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 7: who've right at the very top of the wealthiest people

487
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 7: in France, mostly either as or in fashion or both,

488
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 7: and I wonder whether that is the kind of France

489
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 7: you talked about creating. You always talk about technology, but

490
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 7: the people who've done really well are these old style businesses.

491
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 5: You're right, all of them. I don't think it's all

492
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 5: style of business, but it's a business where we have

493
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 5: competitive advantage luxury fashion and so because France is one

494
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 5: of the great places, and Bernardo consolidated this market very early.

495
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 5: It was one of the front owner in this industry.

496
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 5: And I think it is very good and this is

497
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 5: a chance for us because first we speak about a

498
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 5: lot of jobs which are located in France, because a

499
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 5: lot of these jobs are impossible to be relocated elsewhere.

500
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 5: When you speak about alcohol, when you speak about cognac, maniac, champagne,

501
00:28:56,440 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 5: fashion and making a lot of this stuff, it's added value.

502
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,959
Speaker 5: It's low qualified and very qualified jobs. And in tall

503
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 5: it consolidated the market elsewhere, and thanks to the fact

504
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,479
Speaker 5: that he is listed in France. We Consoli did a

505
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 5: lot of value and value creation as well as is

506
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 5: why thanks to total themh BNP and so on. But

507
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 5: we are the second largest place of the world to

508
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 5: least your company.

509
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 7: But there is a there is a tension, isn't there

510
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 7: If I look at all those people, or certainly there's

511
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 7: LVMH carrying all those ones. They have done spectactically well

512
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 7: by exporting to places like China. They've done very well

513
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 7: out of globalization and all the prescriptions you were just

514
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,959
Speaker 7: talking about in terms of Europe having higher top trade walls,

515
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 7: being tougher with China. You know what will happen in

516
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 7: a couple of months time. The Europeans will say we

517
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 7: want to put tariffs on electric vehicles. And what will

518
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 7: happen is mister g despite what he may have told

519
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 7: you last week, he will come back and he will

520
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 7: he will put tariffs on Cognac and that will help those.

521
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 6: Very successful French business people.

522
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 5: Look, I think this is exactly the mistake we made

523
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 5: twenty years ago on solar panels, and we killed them

524
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 5: our industry. I'm very simple. I don't like to earn

525
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 5: blackmail anybody. I just look at the picture. When you

526
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 5: have taries of ten for your electric for Chinese electric

527
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 5: vehicles entering into our market, and when you are taxed

528
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 5: between fifteen and twenty four when you go to the

529
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 5: Chinese market, you have an issue. And on all the

530
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 5: different sectors. What we want is just reciprocity. We want

531
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 5: and in fact more than that marges and regarding the

532
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 5: relation with China, level playing field. So what we ask

533
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 5: for is exactly that we want to be sure that

534
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 5: in terms of tariffs, subsidies, rules of production, we have

535
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 5: a fair competition. And I mentioned it very openly to

536
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 5: prison sheet. So it's not a geopolitical agenda. We don't

537
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 5: want to blackmail and push back some of that production.

538
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 5: We want to be sure it is fair. It's fair

539
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 5: to launch precisely inquiries and look in details of the

540
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 5: situation and revise it. If we are weak, if we

541
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 5: are threatened by the fact that you can have retortion measures,

542
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 5: you just don't do what you have to do. We

543
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 5: had this discussion and this is why they decided not

544
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 5: to implement the first measures on Cognac, but to withdraw

545
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 5: the first one. So I think it's it's a normal approach.

546
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 5: But look at the situation today. The European Union is

547
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 5: the most open place of the world. But you cannot

548
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 5: survive if at the same time you have subsidieson of

549
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 5: a capacities in China and protection in some part of

550
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 5: the market, and inflation reduction acts and buy American acts

551
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 5: in the US. It doesn't fly once acond.

552
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 6: So Europe has gone to get tougher now.

553
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 5: But this is a necessary not because we are protecttionsanists,

554
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 5: just because we want to protect our.

555
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 6: German The Germans do not agree with you about.

556
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 5: I think it depends whom in Germany and for which perspective.

557
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 5: It's certainly true that some German companies, when they are

558
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 5: incorporated in China, for instance, benefiting from subsidition, not just German,

559
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 5: European American. Their interest is probably to preserve that and

560
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 5: to sell themselves their over capacities in China to the

561
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 5: rest of the world and especially the European markets. But

562
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 5: the German economies interest is totally aligned with the French

563
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 5: economies interests, meaning creating jobs, creating value, but just protecting

564
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 5: your business and your people when they are attacked by

565
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 5: unfirm measures and it's normal. It's part of the business,

566
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 5: so for me, it's just a no brainer.

567
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 4: That was an exclusive conversation between French President Emmanuel Macron

568
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 4: and Bloomberg editor in chief John Micklethwaite in Paris, and

569
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 4: so interesting their joe to hear them talking about not

570
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 4: just China when it comes to trade and competition, but

571
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 4: the US as well. We just heard the French president saying,

572
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 4: while the EU is one of the most open places

573
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 4: in the world, you can't survive if you have subsidies

574
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 4: and overcapacity in China and things like the Inflation Reduction

575
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 4: Act in the US. He specifically mentioned electric vehicles.

576
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, and we knew that the EV subsidies in

577
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 1: the IRA were a problem for a lot of our

578
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: allies in Europe. But it's interesting today we just had

579
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 1: this fascinating conversation with the President of France that very

580
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: same issue, and specifically competition with China by way of

581
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 1: tariffs that we expect to be announced as early as

582
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,719
Speaker 1: tomorrow by the Biden administration came up as well. Our

583
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 1: colleague gan Marie Horde Dern caught up with Janet Yellen,

584
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 1: who is in Fredericksburg Virginia to talk about something altogether different,

585
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: the use and implementation of infrastructure money. But of course

586
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 1: conversation continues to return to China. Here's what the Treasury

587
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 1: Secretary said earlier on Bloomberg.

588
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 8: We do think that the laying field should be fair

589
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 8: and trying to engages in unfair practices like massive subsidies

590
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 8: of industries they've decided are critical, and those are cases

591
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 8: where we will like to protect ourselves.

592
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 4: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen earlier Today.

593
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

594
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

595
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,800
Speaker 2: and then roun Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

596
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

597
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 2: live on YouTube.

598
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 4: Meantime, today, we have to have a lot more not

599
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 4: on the policies that would be pursued by a second

600
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 4: Trump administration, but the way that the presumptive Republican nominee

601
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 4: is spending his time these days, including today in court

602
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 4: in New York. Although his criminal hush money trial is

603
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 4: on a lunch break as we speak, we have had

604
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 4: hours of testimony from Michael Cohen, his former fixer and

605
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 4: attorney the prosecution's star witness in this case, who has

606
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,840
Speaker 4: been testifying to his relationship with Donald Trump and what

607
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 4: exactly went down with the payments made to catch and

608
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 4: kill stories in the national acchoir in the days leading

609
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 4: up to the twenty sixteen election. High drama in the

610
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 4: courtroom once again, So how does it factor into his

611
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 4: political ambitions? Joining us now is our signature political panel,

612
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 4: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzay. No, they are Bloomberg Politics

613
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:28,399
Speaker 4: contributors and Genie. Obviously, you are up in New York

614
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 4: where all of this has been going down for several weeks.

615
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 4: So much has already been unveiled in this case so far,

616
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 4: we already heard last week's salacious testimony from Stormy Daniels.

617
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 4: But is Michael Cohen the last piece of the puzzle

618
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 4: that comes together to create potentially a massive headache for

619
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 4: Trump and his campaign?

620
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 9: Yeah, this is what the prosecutors are hoping. This is,

621
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 9: you know, the big sort of moment in this trial.

622
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 9: He's at the easy part of this at this point,

623
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:57,839
Speaker 9: because he's going to have to face I think what's

624
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 9: going to be a blistering cross examination and we'll have

625
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 9: to see how he holds up under that. You know,

626
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 9: Michael Cohen had a really, really difficult time in front

627
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 9: of the Senate, so he had a bit of time

628
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 9: to practice with this. By all accounts, this should be

629
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 9: a little more tame, but it's going to be tough,

630
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 9: and this is the heart of the prosecution's case. And

631
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 9: you know, Donald Trump's team is going to go hard

632
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 9: on Michael Cohen. And what I think has been, you know,

633
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 9: noteworthy today has been Donald Trump and Michael Cohen have

634
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 9: both behaved themselves so far, if you will, And that's

635
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 9: what both of their sides wanted them to do. Not

636
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 9: get emotional, not have any outbursts, and so far both

637
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 9: of them have done that.

638
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 1: I'm reading this fascinating Trump trial blog live blog on

639
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: the terminal Rick and it is entertaining. It was certainly

640
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 1: salacious during Stormy Daniel's testimony, and maybe this will become

641
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 1: the same He's describing hearing about the access Hollywood tape

642
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: while on vacation and all the drama that followed. But

643
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 1: does any of this actually change anyone's mind politically? I

644
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: realize it's important to the legal case that's being made,

645
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 1: but this is a political program and if you're a

646
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: Trump supporter, you know about Michael Cohen already. If you're

647
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 1: a Joe Biden supporter, you probably feel the same way. Right,

648
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 1: It's hard to tell.

649
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 10: How much voters are really paying much attention to the

650
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 10: details of each of these I mean, we obsess over

651
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 10: this a lot of coverage.

652
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, the media's.

653
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 10: Extravaganza, But so far we haven't seen a lot of

654
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 10: movement in any of the surveys that we've seen through

655
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 10: the course of this. We've now had about three or

656
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 10: four weeks of good sample and nothing really is moving it.

657
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,320
Speaker 10: And so I think it's really what you were saying,

658
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 10: is like, how does this determine the outcome of the trial?

659
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 10: Because there is some clear indication that voters who have

660
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 10: concerns about Trump say that they're more likely not to

661
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 10: vote for him if he's convicted of a crime, and

662
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 10: it is certainly in that case. So clearly this is

663
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 10: the probably biggest headline star in the case, next to

664
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 10: Stormy Daniels herself. And I think the distinction he's already

665
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 10: made today was in his testimony that this wasn't about Milania.

666
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,240
Speaker 10: Trump didn't seem to care about Milania. Finding this stuff

667
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 10: out it was all about making sure he could get

668
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 10: elected and getting through the election. And I think that's

669
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 10: because really this is an election finance case. It's got

670
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 10: really less to do with the salacious details of having

671
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 10: an affair with a porn star or a playboy model,

672
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 10: and a lot more to do with hiding the money

673
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 10: and keeping it from the public view, which would have

674
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 10: become public if they had adhere to strict campaign finance laws.

675
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 3: So I think we're now.

676
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 10: Starting to see the case turn to that issue more

677
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 10: than just the sort of salacious details of the relationship.

678
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 4: So we know Rick that Michael Cohen's in the courtroom,

679
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:00,720
Speaker 4: as well as the prosecutors, Trump's attorneys, donald Trump himself.

680
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 4: But there are a few other members of Congress who

681
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 4: decided to show up and show support for the former

682
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:09,439
Speaker 4: president today. Congresswoman Nicole Malia Takis of New York was there.

683
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 4: Senator Tommy Tubberville coach as you may know him. Senator

684
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 4: jd Vance, who has also been listed on the at

685
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:19,879
Speaker 4: least reported shortlist of potential vice presidential candidates who would

686
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:22,919
Speaker 4: be on the ticket alongside Donald Trump, but Donald Trump

687
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 4: said this weekend at least one person is not on

688
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 4: that shortlist, Rick Nikki Hayley, Does that surprise you, Yeah, it.

689
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 10: Didn't surprise me. I mean, they never really made up.

690
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 10: She hasn't endorsed him after her withdrawing from the primary campaign,

691
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 10: and it's a concert reminder to him that she hasn't

692
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 10: done that, because there are still people as much as

693
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 10: twenty percent who are voting for her in the primary

694
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 10: against him, even as he has already accumulated enough delegates

695
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 10: to become the nominee. So she is an irritant to

696
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 10: Donald Trump. Now if it goes beyond irritant to the

697
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:03,839
Speaker 10: point where he insults her enough that those voters who

698
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 10: are Republican voters don't show up in the general election,

699
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 10: could actually cost him. So I was actually surprised he

700
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 10: was as negative toward her as he was in his

701
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:17,879
Speaker 10: response to questions about whether or not they he would

702
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 10: consider her for VP. Doesn't seem to care about that

703
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 10: twenty percent, But I sure what if I was running

704
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 10: his campaign.

705
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,280
Speaker 1: We spent some time talking earlier about the new Sienna

706
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 1: pol New Sienna College bullets out today with New York

707
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 1: Times Philadelphia Inquirer, and it's not good news for Joe Biden.

708
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 1: Genie who's losing to Donald Trump in a majority of

709
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 1: swing states covered here. When you consider the weekend that

710
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:45,760
Speaker 1: Donald Trump had on the Jersey Shore, big rally, huge turnout.

711
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 1: He referred to Alvin Bragg as fat Alvin. He talked

712
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 1: about wan Moreshawan, the judge of course, presiding over the

713
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 1: trials quote highly conflicted unquote, talked more about how the

714
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 1: cases doing the bidding of President Biden. He'll probably, I'm assuming,

715
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 1: face more concerns about violating the gag order in this case.

716
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,839
Speaker 1: But when you look at that Siena pole, getting back

717
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 1: to what Rick said a little earlier, is any of

718
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 1: this moving the needle on the campaign trail because it

719
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 1: looks like they're existing in two separate worlds.

720
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 9: It sure doesn't seem to be. I mean, the first

721
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 9: takeaway from this pole is consistency. It is consistent with

722
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:29,479
Speaker 9: what we have seen over and over again almost since

723
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 9: the fall. So you know, the trial at least so

724
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 9: far hasn't seemed to move the needle. And I would say,

725
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 9: you know, local officials on the Jersey Shore, I don't

726
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 9: know if Snooky was there, who was there? They're saying

727
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 9: eighty one hundred thousand people turned out, that was our

728
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 9: big numbers for Donald Trump. And I'm going to go

729
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:50,359
Speaker 9: out on a limb here and call this VP race

730
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 9: for Doug Bergham. I think that was the story of

731
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:56,879
Speaker 9: the weekend, you know, speaking of Nicky Yeah, there we go,

732
00:41:56,960 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 9: speaking of Nicky Haley, NICKI Haley. She's a big problem

733
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 9: these quote unquote zombie voters who are increasing numbers. It

734
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,959
Speaker 9: was Indiana to two point twenty two percent. But Doug

735
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 9: Burgham helps to alleviate some of that challenge. So between

736
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 9: his money, which is another problem Donald Trump has, the

737
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 9: Nicky Haley voters and abortion, I'm I'm saying my bet

738
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 9: is on Doug Bergham at this point. A really good

739
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 9: showing for Doug Burgham out there on the campaign trail

740
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 9: for for Donald Trump. And I know, I know JD.

741
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 9: Vances is in the courtroom today, but he hasn't won

742
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:31,520
Speaker 9: me over yet on his.

743
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 6: Not that it mess.

744
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 4: Okay, So Genie makes her call.

745
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're marking this down. What do we have your

746
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 1: thirteenth of May? Genie Burgham got.

747
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 4: It, yep, noted, putting it on our little checkerboard here,

748
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 4: bingo card maybe campaign We're all going to be playing

749
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 4: this game probably up until the day before the Republican

750
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 4: Convention starts in July. But Genie, just on this New

751
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,839
Speaker 4: York Times Siena pol when you look at the demographic

752
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 4: figures as well, perhaps it spells trouble for the Biden campaign.

753
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 4: They're essentially tied with Trump among eighteen to twenty nine

754
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,399
Speaker 4: year olds and Hispanic voters, even though Biden got more

755
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 4: than sixty percent of the vote of both of those

756
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 4: groups in twenty twenty and mister Trump wins support of

757
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 4: more than twenty percent of Black voters, which is the

758
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 4: highest level of support for any Republican presidential candidate since

759
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 4: the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of nineteen sixty four. Genie,

760
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 4: when you look at figures like that, what's most concerning?

761
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 9: Uh, that is the most concerning thing about this poll.

762
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 9: Exactly what you just said, Kaylee. You know, the idea

763
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 9: that double Trump could if the election was held today,

764
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 9: double the number of African Americans who support him is

765
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 9: just stunning. Its historic. It suggests we are in a

766
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 9: period of realignment. And boy does the Biden team know this.

767
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 9: If you look at his schedule for this week the NAACP,

768
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 9: He's going to Morehouse to do the commencement he's talking

769
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:53,799
Speaker 9: at the African American Museum. I mean, they are going

770
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 9: to try desperately to shore up this Black vote, which

771
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 9: he really does need. And he's got some work to

772
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 9: do on that. Because Donald Trump is doing what no

773
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 9: other Republican has been able to do in decades, which

774
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 9: is he is attractive to African American, particularly young voters.

775
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 9: Joe Biden's best hope is that they don't come out

776
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,360
Speaker 9: in as much numbers as you know some of the

777
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 9: elderly people who support Joe Biden.

778
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: Well, I'm fascinated by that answer. Rick, A period of realignment.

779
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: If that's the case, how a Republican seize on it.

780
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 10: Well, I mean there already has been quite a bit

781
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 10: of realignment with Donald Trump. What we saw in twenty

782
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 10: sixteen was his ability to get blue collar, white rural males,

783
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 10: especially who had been voting Democratic for most of their lives,

784
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 10: to switch over and start voting Republican and became really

785
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 10: the basis of the MAGA movement. The question now is

786
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 10: is there further movement toward that realignment. It's certainly not

787
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 10: your grandfather's Republican Party, But the reality is I think

788
00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 10: they still fall along the lines of education and income

789
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:05,719
Speaker 10: and geography. If you are a black Mail without a

790
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:08,799
Speaker 10: college education, You're going to be more likely to vote

791
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:12,240
Speaker 10: for Trump, regardless of your skin color. Same with Hispanics.

792
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:16,720
Speaker 10: And what we're seeing is, you know, where you live matters.

793
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 10: If you live in an urban area or suburb, less

794
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,439
Speaker 10: likely to vote for Donald Trump. So you know, these

795
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 10: are the realignments that are happening. Whether or not it

796
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 10: continues to enforce this election cycle too early to tell.

797
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:32,359
Speaker 10: I would say the thing that upsets the Apple card

798
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 10: is turnout. In twenty twenty, we saw the largest turnout

799
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 10: in one hundred years. Seventy percent of the voters said, Hey,

800
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 10: I'm interested in this outcome and I care this time.

801
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 10: Every single survey we're seeing says, you know what, I

802
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:48,400
Speaker 10: don't care about the rematch. It is not interesting to me,

803
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 10: and I don't want to vote. And so you have

804
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 10: almost half the country now saying don't count on me

805
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 10: to be an election day voter. So that changes the

806
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 10: model completely. And how that, you know changes we may

807
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 10: not know until election day.

808
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 1: Really smart analysis today from Rick and Jeanie are signature panel.

809
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano or Bloomberg Politics contributors. Thank

810
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,799
Speaker 1: you both for weighing in here. I guess the big

811
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 1: question remains, if this is a period of realignment, will

812
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,320
Speaker 1: it out last Donald Trump.

813
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

814
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

815
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 2: and then roud Oro with a Bloomberg Business app. You

816
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 2: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

817
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 2: New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

818
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 4: For much of the last week, conversation really has been

819
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 4: dominated by a policy shift. In some instances, the Biden

820
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:51,879
Speaker 4: administration has undergone in regard to Israel decision last week

821
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 4: to withhold a shipment of large bombs to Israel overconcerned

822
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 4: that they may be used in Rafa Gossen City, in

823
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 4: which more than a million Palestinians have sought refuge and shelter,

824
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 4: and administration officials this weekend Joe standing by the decision.

825
00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:08,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's for sure. We talked about it a lot

826
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,319
Speaker 1: in this space as it was happening. Of course, that

827
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: the White House might bristle at the idea of this

828
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 1: being reflected as a change in policy, but it certainly

829
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 1: feels like when to a lot of lawmakers and as

830
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 1: a result, Kayley, there's an effort a foot on Capitol

831
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 1: Hill by the very small Republican majority here the Republican Conference,

832
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 1: pushing a resolution to ensure funding for Israel. It might

833
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 1: be something we see get some attention this week.

834
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:34,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, certainly something we're going to keep an eye on,

835
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 4: just as we were keeping an eye on of the

836
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 4: messaging with the Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln, who was

837
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 4: asked about this on one of the Sunday shows over

838
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 4: the weekend, and this is what he said about the

839
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 4: administration's thinking on these weapons for Israel.

840
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:48,240
Speaker 3: We don't have double standards.

841
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 11: We treat Israel one of our closest allies and partners,

842
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 11: just as we would treat any other country, including and

843
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 11: assessing something like international U Meaniterran law and its compliance.

844
00:47:58,040 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 3: With that with that law.

845
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: Invite people to read the report.

846
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 11: They can see for themselves everything that we've laid out

847
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 11: in the report. The report also makes clear that this

848
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 11: is an incredibly complex military environment.

849
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:13,879
Speaker 1: Speaking on NBC's Meet the Press, the Secretary of State

850
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: talking about the report submitted to Congress at the end

851
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 1: of last week that raises concerns about Israel's use of

852
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,719
Speaker 1: US provided weapons in theater. But as we mentioned, there

853
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 1: is a resolution that could see the light of day

854
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 1: in the US House this week that would ensure funding

855
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 1: military support for Israel and joining us to talk about

856
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 1: this and a few other stories. Congressman Chuck Fleischman, the

857
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 1: Republican from Tennessee's third district, If you're with us on

858
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV, you can see is literally in the field

859
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:45,760
Speaker 1: here doing constituent services. And Congressman, I appreciate your stopping

860
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 1: your day for us as you prepare to return to

861
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:51,840
Speaker 1: Washington this week, will the House pass that resolution? What

862
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 1: do you think needs to happen.

863
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 12: We need to be unequivocal in our support for Israel,

864
00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:01,280
Speaker 12: absolutely after what happened to Israel on October the seventh,

865
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 12: the United States needs to back its ally in the

866
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 12: Middle East, Israel and its right to defend its borders,

867
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 12: and its right to fix the situation with Hamas in Gaza.

868
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 12: And we do not need to pause, We do not

869
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:19,920
Speaker 12: need to be vague. We need to be one hundred

870
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 12: percent behind Israel so they can wrap this situation up,

871
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:27,279
Speaker 12: deter terrorism wherever it exists in the Middle East and

872
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 12: move forward.

873
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:33,320
Speaker 4: Well, Congressman. At the end of the day, though, knowing

874
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 4: that this is largely a messaging bill, is there any

875
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:41,760
Speaker 4: further action that you would like to see your Chamber

876
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 4: take that is not just largely symbolic and meant to

877
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 4: send a west message to the White House.

878
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 12: Well, we were more than symbolic when we passed a

879
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 12: to Israel. We've passed it time and time again, through

880
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 12: the appropriations packages, through the supplementals and the like. But

881
00:49:58,560 --> 00:50:01,799
Speaker 12: our speaker, our leaders, our membership has been on the

882
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 12: Republican side overwhelming Even Democrats have joined us. Many Democrats

883
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 12: have joined us as they should. Support for Israel needs

884
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:14,319
Speaker 12: to be bipartisan, needs to be by cameral, and we

885
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:15,520
Speaker 12: needed to start from.

886
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 1: The White House.

887
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 12: We need to tell Joe Biden loud and clear, unequivocally

888
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:23,360
Speaker 12: that he's got to support Israel, no pauses, no offens

889
00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 12: or butts. Support Israel, get them the aid, get them

890
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 12: the arms, let them secure their borders. Complete this mission,

891
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,320
Speaker 12: and then let's work for peace in the Middle East.

892
00:50:33,320 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 1: Are you concerned about the findings and the State Department report,

893
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 1: Congressmen that questions some of Israel's tactics in using US

894
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 1: provided weapons in Gaza. Should Congress be concerned about this.

895
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 12: I'm personally not. October the seventh, Hamas was not concerned

896
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 12: when they went in, raped, pillaged, plundered, killed, engaged in

897
00:50:55,560 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 12: terroristic acts that are unspeakable, unfathomable. This was an incursion

898
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:05,799
Speaker 12: into the sovereign state of Israel, which cannot be ever tolerated,

899
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 12: can never be condoned. So no or as heck. War

900
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 12: is horrible, but and casualties happen in war that are

901
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 12: sometimes unintended. But remember this, in the streets of Gaza

902
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 12: they were celebrating on October the eighth, when Israel had

903
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 12: been hit and terrorized. They still have American hostages. They

904
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 12: still have Israeli hostages. Hamas is not giving them up

905
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 12: until Hamas decides to do the right thing, give up

906
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 12: the hostages and agree to stop incursions into Israel. Think

907
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 12: about it, They're still wanting to fire rockets into Israel.

908
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 12: They're still calling for the destruction of Israel. So again,

909
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:51,760
Speaker 12: the United States needs to be unequivocal in its support

910
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 12: for Israel, for funding for arms, for diplomatic aid, anything

911
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 12: that it takes to secure ISRAE position in the Middle

912
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 12: East with its neighbors.

913
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 4: So we'll look to see further action from the House

914
00:52:07,160 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 4: in regard to Israel this week. Congressman, there's also another issue,

915
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:13,759
Speaker 4: perhaps more time pressing, that will need to be taken up,

916
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 4: the FAA reauthorization. The House last week passed a one

917
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 4: week extension. The Senate passed the full five year bill

918
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 4: last week. Will be the House's turn to take it up,

919
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 4: and we understand it will be done under suspension of

920
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:27,759
Speaker 4: the rules. Do you anticipate any difficulty in getting that

921
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 4: passed in time?

922
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 2: I don't.

923
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 12: We need to get the FAA passed. It's a good bill,

924
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 12: it's not a perfect bill, but doing an under suspension,

925
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 12: for your viewers, means that it will require two thirds

926
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 12: as opposed to majority. What that means is when you

927
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:48,400
Speaker 12: cannot pass a rule, and we've had some problems passing

928
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 12: rules in the majority. I've always voted for the rule

929
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 12: in the majority as a Republican. Some of my colleagues

930
00:52:55,880 --> 00:53:00,120
Speaker 12: have chosen not to, respectfully, I disagree with that, but

931
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 12: since we can't guarantee the passage of a rule, I

932
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 12: think our best chance is to do this on suspension.

933
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 12: Get two thirds. I think we'll get that done very

934
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 12: quickly and with relative ease.

935
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 1: Congressman, I want to ask you a question from your

936
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 1: view on the Appropriations Committee. We just went through a

937
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 1: painful process to keep the government funded that sucked up

938
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:25,000
Speaker 1: the first third to half of this year. Knowing that

939
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 1: we've seen at least a markup session on a Republican bill,

940
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 1: We've seen the President the White House drop their budget proposal.

941
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,400
Speaker 1: Can we get to work where your committee start before

942
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:38,319
Speaker 1: the last minute, say this summer or fall, for a

943
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 1: regular order appropriations process Fiscal twenty five.

944
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 3: Joe, You're absolutely right. I believe in regular order.

945
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:50,319
Speaker 12: I believe in sub committees, full committees, doing their work,

946
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 12: getting to the floor, getting appropriation bills passed, and getting

947
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 12: them ready for conferencing with the United States Senate and

948
00:53:56,640 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 12: ultimately to be signed. The reality is we are doing

949
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 12: our work. I cheer the Energy and Water Subcommittee of Appropriations,

950
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 12: but I can assure you Chairman Cole and all of

951
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:09,719
Speaker 12: the other twelve cardinals of which I'm one subcommittee chair

952
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:13,839
Speaker 12: people will be working on their bills. Some of the bills, Joe,

953
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:16,800
Speaker 12: are easier to pass than others. My biling Energy and

954
00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:19,080
Speaker 12: Water bill is a bill that is much easier to

955
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 12: pass than some of the others. Legislative branch is an

956
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 12: easier one, milkon VA is an easier one, but some

957
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 12: will be harder. What I anticipate will happen is we

958
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:31,440
Speaker 12: will write our bills, pass our bills out of full committee,

959
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 12: get them to the floor in the best position to

960
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 12: be passed. But the reality is, and I hate to predict,

961
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:41,719
Speaker 12: but with an election year, the reality I think probably

962
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 12: will be a short term cr into the latter part

963
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 12: of the year, largely due to some of the complexities

964
00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:51,879
Speaker 12: between the House and the Senate and Republicans and Democrats.

965
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:55,359
Speaker 12: But I'm going to work night and day to make

966
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:58,840
Speaker 12: sure that our bill gets done and that my colleagues

967
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 12: who have other bills as appropriators will get their work

968
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 12: done and get it done in due course. So I

969
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:09,359
Speaker 12: expect a better year. I expect all twelve bills to.

970
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:11,560
Speaker 1: Be done, all right.

971
00:55:11,600 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 4: Republican Congressman Chuck Fleischman of Tennessee, thank you both. Thank

972
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 4: you for joining us on both Bloomberg Television and radio.

973
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:21,240
Speaker 4: We appreciate your time and insight into the work of Congress,

974
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 4: but we want to focus now on the work of

975
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:26,239
Speaker 4: one regulator, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, is taking aim

976
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:29,439
Speaker 4: at the grid fork, approving today two rules to speed

977
00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 4: the development of new long range electric transmission lines. One

978
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:36,320
Speaker 4: is smoothing out the regional process for planning and assigning

979
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 4: costs for projects, and the other rule allows FERK to

980
00:55:39,480 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 4: issue federal permits for transmission lines that are blocked by

981
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:46,720
Speaker 4: state regulators. Joining us now for more is Willie Phillips.

982
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 4: He is the chair of FURK. Joining us here in

983
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:51,759
Speaker 4: our Washington, d C studio. Mister chairman, welcome, Thank you

984
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 4: so much for being with us. When we look at

985
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:56,720
Speaker 4: this pair of rules, how are they going to support

986
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 4: a US power grid that has proven time and again

987
00:55:59,120 --> 00:55:59,919
Speaker 4: that it is quite strong.

988
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:02,319
Speaker 13: Well, I have to say thank you so much for

989
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 13: having me here today. The US electric power grid, it

990
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:10,320
Speaker 13: is the backbone for our American economy. But our grid

991
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:14,480
Speaker 13: is being stressed. It's being tested today in ways we

992
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:19,959
Speaker 13: never seen before, in the face of rising demand, extreme weather,

993
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:24,759
Speaker 13: and new technologies that are shaping the resource mix in

994
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:29,080
Speaker 13: this country. We took historic, historic action today at FIRK

995
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:35,840
Speaker 13: to address these really these urgent matters. It's urgent, it's now.

996
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:38,920
Speaker 13: We have to act now to plan for the future,

997
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:42,320
Speaker 13: because if we don't, we doom the reliability of our system.

998
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:43,879
Speaker 13: America cannot wait.

999
00:56:43,960 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 1: You must be getting calls about AI and data centers

1000
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:51,719
Speaker 1: every day. This is all we're hearing about. When Constellation

1001
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 1: reported earnings last week, the entire conversation was not about

1002
00:56:56,760 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 1: how do they open a new nuclear power plant? It

1003
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:01,880
Speaker 1: was how do we get data centers tied to nuclear

1004
00:57:01,920 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 1: because there's not enough power available here to train all

1005
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 1: these language models that are going to apparently change our

1006
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 1: lives in the next couple of years. What is FERK

1007
00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:16,480
Speaker 1: gonna do about the demand alone from AI?

1008
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 13: You know, you're absolutely right. I hear from leaders across

1009
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:25,400
Speaker 13: our industry all the time talking about how the unprecedented

1010
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:29,280
Speaker 13: demand and load that they're seeing from data centers that

1011
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 13: really that's empowering this AI revolution that we're seeing around

1012
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 13: the country. It's in Ohio, it's in Virginia, which is

1013
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 13: the data center capital that's right of the United States.

1014
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:43,640
Speaker 13: We see projections that Ohio is going to put as

1015
00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:46,880
Speaker 13: much load on a system that's equal to the total

1016
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 13: amount of load of Manhattan.

1017
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 7: Wow.

1018
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 3: In the near term.

1019
00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 13: This is a problem again for the nation's grid and

1020
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 13: so our rule it's gonna help bring on more generation.

1021
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 13: It's gonna help us. There's no one thing that we

1022
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 13: can do that can address the reliability needs of our system.

1023
00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 13: Then long term and regional planning.

1024
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 4: Do you expect that these rules, though, we'll run into

1025
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:13,240
Speaker 4: any legal issues. Potential litigation is if the federal regulator

1026
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:16,520
Speaker 4: is coming in to potentially step over state regulators in

1027
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:17,200
Speaker 4: some cases.

1028
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 13: I can tell you this as a former state regulator myself.

1029
00:58:21,880 --> 00:58:25,480
Speaker 13: I look carefully at these rules. We had over fifteen

1030
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 13: thousand pages of public comments from two hundred individual parties.

1031
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 13: I am extremely confident that these rules are legally durable

1032
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 13: and that they will be upheld.

1033
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 3: That's a fact.

1034
00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:42,800
Speaker 1: Texas remains an exception to the national grid, if I

1035
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:46,680
Speaker 1: can call it that, what happens if Tesla starts cranking

1036
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:49,400
Speaker 1: up these data centers or if this AI demand starts

1037
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:51,200
Speaker 1: coming from Texas while they play along.

1038
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,440
Speaker 13: So Texas, of course you mentioned they proud of the

1039
00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 13: fact that they have their own independent grid. But let's

1040
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:00,480
Speaker 13: be clear, Texas is also a bell weather You don't

1041
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:02,240
Speaker 13: have to look any further than some of the extreme

1042
00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 13: weather events that have happened in Texas and other places

1043
00:59:06,040 --> 00:59:08,160
Speaker 13: and how it costs billions of dollars and it costs

1044
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:13,640
Speaker 13: hundreds of lives. We know that Texas leaders also know

1045
00:59:14,120 --> 00:59:17,919
Speaker 13: that transmission reform is the best way to address these

1046
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:21,360
Speaker 13: regulatory challenges and the reliability challenges.

1047
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 1: That we have on the grid that they call you

1048
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:22,959
Speaker 1: for help.

1049
00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:26,400
Speaker 13: We learn from Texas, and I think Texas learns from us.

1050
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 13: We're all in this together. That's what Congress said when

1051
00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:33,760
Speaker 13: they established the Federal and Interrogatory Commission, that we're going

1052
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 13: to have a national role in making sure that we

1053
00:59:37,080 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 13: protect the reliability of.

1054
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:41,800
Speaker 4: Our country, which is much more difficult in terms of

1055
00:59:41,840 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 4: reliability when you are seeing those extreme weather events and

1056
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:48,520
Speaker 4: climate related events that you were just alluding to. Obviously,

1057
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:50,760
Speaker 4: these rules are intended to make sure there is more

1058
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 4: investment in transmission. But I would imagine none of this

1059
00:59:52,880 --> 00:59:55,720
Speaker 4: happens overnight when we're seeing these kind of weather events

1060
00:59:56,120 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 4: in real time. How fragile is the grid in this

1061
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:02,439
Speaker 4: mode in terms of exposure to that kind of thing.

1062
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:06,000
Speaker 13: Look, we know the grid is on the stress, and

1063
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 13: we know that things take a long time. They take

1064
01:00:08,440 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 13: too long to build a new transmission. That's why these

1065
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:14,479
Speaker 13: rules are so important. It will speed up the time

1066
01:00:14,800 --> 01:00:17,280
Speaker 13: that it takes to bring these resources that are waiting

1067
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:20,919
Speaker 13: in the wings to come on. This rule is the

1068
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:23,720
Speaker 13: best chance that we have to protect the reliability and

1069
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 13: affordability for our consumers.

1070
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:28,720
Speaker 3: Imagine this. Imagine you're a senior.

1071
01:00:29,280 --> 01:00:32,720
Speaker 13: You're at home, it gets cold, the lights go out,

1072
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:37,480
Speaker 13: it gets colder, maybe a little confused, you freeze the

1073
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:43,000
Speaker 13: death in your home. That's what happens. This is our

1074
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 13: best chance to address that need and to help consumers

1075
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:47,920
Speaker 13: throughout our country.

1076
01:00:48,320 --> 01:00:50,440
Speaker 1: These are the people who are obviously in your mind

1077
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:52,560
Speaker 1: when you go to bed at night. Here are we

1078
01:00:52,600 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 1: in a crisis then in a remaining moment? Or are

1079
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 1: you averting one?

1080
01:00:56,320 --> 01:01:01,480
Speaker 13: We are absolutely addressing the need for reliability in this country.

1081
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:05,240
Speaker 13: If we don't address it, we are facing a reliability crisis.

1082
01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:07,280
Speaker 1: Absolutely. I'm really glad you could come see us at

1083
01:01:07,320 --> 01:01:09,960
Speaker 1: the table today. Don't be a stranger, all right, give

1084
01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:12,240
Speaker 1: us an update on the progress at some point as

1085
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 1: soon as the Chairman of FIRK, Willie Phillips, and a

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Speaker 1: fascinating conversation Kaylee once again that you will not hear

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Speaker 1: anywhere else. We started this broadcast with the promise that

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Speaker 1: we would take advantage of this calm here in the

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Speaker 1: storm the eye of the hurricane to bring you some

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Speaker 1: context and some smart conversations, and Kaylee I certainly learned

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Speaker 1: a lot. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

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01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:36,400
Speaker 1: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 1: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com.