1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,400 Speaker 1: What's the traded tip of the week. 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,040 Speaker 2: For all my investors who are worried about what's going 3 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 2: on in the market right now, I need you to 4 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,000 Speaker 2: know that the market dropped February through March of twenty 5 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 2: twenty six this year, also twenty twenty five, twenty twenty three, 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, twenty twenty and twenty eighteen. 7 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 1: This is the time. 8 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: This is like preseason for investors in hedge funds before 9 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 2: the money comes in. I know there's a lot of 10 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 2: doom and gloom that's going on in the world right now, 11 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 2: but the cycle that you're seeing of the market being 12 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:39,480 Speaker 2: down right now is normal. The cause in twenty three, 13 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: in twenty two and eighteen. 14 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:42,559 Speaker 1: May be different. 15 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,279 Speaker 2: But every year in the last fifteen years, I need 16 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 2: you expect for, just like we have that drop in 17 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 2: late July August, that we have February through March. Until 18 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 2: that capital starts to flowing that third week of March, 19 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 2: we're going to be down. Stop worrying. It's going to 20 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: be okay. It's giving you a time, a generational time 21 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 2: to buy. Everything is going to be fine. The market 22 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 2: normally goes down in February. 23 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 1: In March, yeah, that's important. 24 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 3: I love the historical perspective because it gives context to it. 25 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 3: I think when you add into what's happened in March, 26 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,839 Speaker 3: we got caught druple witching. Right the third the first 27 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 3: quarter is ending at the end of March. You got 28 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 3: the third week of the quarter in the last month, 29 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 3: which would be on March. So that's going to happen 30 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,119 Speaker 3: as well. But on the other side of it, right 31 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:32,960 Speaker 3: when we look at the best six months to invest 32 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 3: or trade. 33 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 1: Usually April at the top. 34 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 3: And so when you see you see opportunities like we 35 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,639 Speaker 3: saw last week, and maybe you saw something earlier today, 36 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 3: we'll talk about it a little bit later. You positioning 37 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 3: yourself to be in these spots when April comes. We 38 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 3: saw it last year, right when we were Liberation Day. 39 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 3: That happened in April, and then we saw the rebound 40 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 3: in the best six months after that. 41 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, that felt like an anomaly. 42 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 3: But if you look historically, April, May June have been 43 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 3: solid month that second quarter of the year. Like you said, 44 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 3: deal flows start to come in a little bit differently. 45 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: People's quarterly report has changed. 46 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 3: The end of the year's changed, sure, which is something 47 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 3: that we actually we found out about actually last week 48 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 3: it was like yo, you set when your year end 49 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 3: is right depending on when you created your business. So 50 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 3: just having historical contact is important, and understanding that we've 51 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 3: been here before is important, and understanding like look, if 52 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 3: you're going to invest, do it regularly, but keep these 53 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 3: things in mind before you make a move. 54 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 2: And secondly, anytime that the VIC skits above twenty seven 55 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 2: and normally takes anywhere from a month and a half 56 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 2: to two and a half months for it to go 57 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 2: back underneath twenty one, once again, the most important chart 58 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 2: if you're going to be looking at it from a 59 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 2: technical standpoint that cannot be manipulated. We'll talk about manipulation 60 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 2: later is the VICS. So usually for me two months, 61 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 2: I should expect the VIC should be back around twenty 62 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 2: which will lead into that April scenario that you talked 63 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: about as well. Block out the noise, like we told 64 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 2: you last week, where oil would go when to be concerned, 65 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 2: But keep your eyes on the VIX and if the 66 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 2: VIX hits twenty seven or thirty or thirty five, that's 67 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 2: a good time to buy into the top ten stocks 68 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 2: and you'll be a Okay, yeah. 69 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,239 Speaker 1: We saw the VIX hit thirty six today. 70 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 3: I think it closed that twenty five, which was a 71 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 3: huge swing ten points. 72 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: On the Vix's hell of a turnaround. That's pretty pretty abnormal. 73 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: But it happened. Yeah, it happened. 74 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 3: But like you said, if you were here last week, 75 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 3: you heard those numbers. You heard ninety three fifty. I 76 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 3: talked about one ten and one twenty, and we got 77 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 3: all those ranges that quick were out of them interesting times. 78 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 2: And that's why I kept saying or trade is over. 79 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: It's priced in. 80 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 2: I don't know when you guys want to talk about it, 81 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 2: but man, this is a different time geopolitically in terms 82 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,080 Speaker 2: of the market. They turned the crude market into a 83 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 2: meme stock by the time you get to chasing that move. 84 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 2: I'm not hating or gatekeeping. You just didn't listen the 85 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 2: first time shot and told you what to investor in 86 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 2: from day one, Troy told you, I told you am Jin, Lily, 87 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 2: cost Co, Walmart, AMD and Video. 88 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 1: Those are all my picture early on. 89 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 2: They're still there, but you are now being used for 90 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: the exit liquidity for the hedge funds and they're playing 91 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 2: in y'all faces and there's nothing you can do about it. 92 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 2: You have to be smarter than ever. They realize that 93 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 2: this class of investors is better than ever, and now 94 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 2: they're using that against you and getting on social media 95 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 2: and people saying oil is going to go to one fifty. 96 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 2: Do you know that the last time that oil was 97 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 2: that two hundred was nineteen twenty nine. For every ten 98 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 2: dollars move that we have and crewed gasoline is going 99 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,039 Speaker 2: to go up by thirty five cent, that will cripple 100 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 2: the American economy and it's already in shambles as is. 101 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,919 Speaker 1: So did it feel like a test like the past couple? 102 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,119 Speaker 3: I mean, if you're on social media, if you're watching 103 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:02,840 Speaker 3: the news, you hear all, you hear all, you keep 104 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 3: hearing all, you keep hearing your gas price is going 105 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 3: to go up. For the beginner, like that intermediate, maybe 106 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 3: that investor to retail investor that hasn't been through it, 107 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 3: hasn't heard it. 108 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 1: Did you feel like it? Maybe it was a test 109 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: to see what will they do? 110 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 3: Will they say, hey, we're going to buy future contracts, 111 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 3: want to get into one hundred or options contracts, want 112 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 3: it for it to get to one hundred. And then 113 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 3: you're sitting there Sunday night and you're like, Wow, we're 114 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 3: at one seventeen, and then you wake up at nine 115 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 3: to thirty one and you're back at ninety four ninety seven. 116 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 2: Did you feel like a test? I said it since 117 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 2: episode seventy. Never in the history of American capitalism do 118 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 2: they come to black people and say this is an 119 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 2: investment to make. First, you gotta be as cool as 120 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 2: Rashad is, sitting calm and comfortable and chill. That's the 121 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 2: biggest lesson in investing is that investors love certainty. But 122 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 2: when you have everyone saying it's going to one fifty 123 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 2: two hundred, and then people are getting excited, and then 124 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 2: you're like, Eaton's gate cheeping. I'm like, I'm trying to 125 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 2: protect you if you haven't traded the crew. Like even 126 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 2: US crew contracts used to cost eight thousand per contract. 127 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 2: As of last week, the twenty four thousand, seven hundred 128 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 2: and thirty seven fifty for one contract. It's not even 129 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,719 Speaker 2: the best use of capital. The VICS, which pays five 130 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:27,279 Speaker 2: times more, is twenty thousand per contract. So all of 131 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 2: a sudden, last or two months ago, it was gold 132 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:34,719 Speaker 2: and everyone wanted the gold. Move now became crewe, just 133 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 2: like Trump is having a different target for every month. 134 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 2: They're going to push a different financial instrument in front 135 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 2: of your face every month. 136 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: You gotta stick to the four that you know. 137 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 2: And if you haven't traded crew, if you just before, 138 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 2: now's not the time to play. 139 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: No boy. Yeah, well, let's talk about this. 140 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 4: JP Morgan predicts that SMP could fall ten because of 141 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 4: the Iran war and rising oil prices. So ten percent 142 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 4: correction is what JP Morgan is is calling for. 143 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: Potentially, what do you think if we fall ten percent? 144 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 2: It won't be because of the Iran issue solely. We're 145 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 2: not talking enough about the credit private credit market issue. 146 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 2: I think this is one of the biggest bubbles that's 147 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 2: not being talked about. When I was talking about on 148 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 2: stock Club call, people are asking like, Okay, is this 149 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 2: a retail issue because some retail investors have access to 150 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 2: private credit and private equity. Now KKR, Apollo arees, those 151 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 2: are not retail platforms. 152 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: Those are institutional. 153 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 2: So blue Out may be down sixty three percent, which 154 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 2: is retail facing. But when you see that aries Blackrock, 155 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 2: like black Rocks stopped allowing people to withdraw money, not 156 00:07:56,240 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 2: the black Rock, but that's the first Canaria in a 157 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 2: cold moon where you're like, oh, shit, is tougher than 158 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 2: what you really think it is, and that what it's 159 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 2: reporting to be. So I think will it be a 160 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 2: combination of factors, yes, But Iran, I think it's probably 161 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 2: the smallest issue on the table right now as to 162 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 2: why the stock market would drop. I think there is 163 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 2: a lot of issues around the circular investment, private credit. 164 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 2: And then also the job market is in shambles and 165 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 2: no one wants to talk about it, and they keep 166 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 2: revising these numbers in line about these numbers. So I 167 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 2: don't think we have gotten the honest job report in 168 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 2: the last two and a half years. Well that's what 169 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 2: I was gonna say. 170 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,839 Speaker 4: As far as the job yes, there's a variety of 171 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 4: different things. The job market is in shambles, and it's 172 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 4: even worse, and it's even worse than what's being reported, 173 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 4: because you got people that's not even looking for jobs anymore. 174 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 4: And then you got a variety of young people that 175 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 4: don't even know where to start to look for jobs. 176 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 4: So they're not necessarily following unemployment because they just graduate 177 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 4: from college and they still trying to figure it out. 178 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 4: They're just at home with their parents just in the 179 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 4: basement watching Andrew Tait all day. Yeah, credit credit card 180 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 4: debt all time high when you look at I mean, 181 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 4: they quietly about to have another government shut down TSA. 182 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 4: He said, get to the airport five hours early because 183 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 4: they can't they can't pay TSA. Five hours is crazy. 184 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 4: You can't even check your back more than three hours. 185 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: Yeah. Housing, this is the first. 186 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 4: Time I think in over ten years the rate of 187 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 4: houses that's being sold right now at like a ten 188 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 4: year low. So that means that people are not spending 189 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 4: money on real estate in the same way. 190 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: Or can afford to. 191 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the list goes on so domestically, there's 192 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 4: a lot of signs that points to a pretty weakening 193 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 4: economy for the average person. 194 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I I agree with a lot of 195 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 3: the points. I agree that, well, first, ten percent is 196 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 3: pretty normal. First, and normals like if we pull back 197 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 3: ten percent, we shouldn't feel like, oh my gosh, our 198 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 3: account is about to go to shambles. Not ten percent 199 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 3: would be an actually welcomed correction.