WEBVTT - Miller Tabak's Maley on Markets; Red Cross's Kieserman (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>this is a Bloomberg Business flag from Bloomberg World Handquarters.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Charlie. How that stocks aredging higher. We've got thirteen

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<v Speaker 1>minutes to go ahead of the close the dal B

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<v Speaker 1>SMP nestack all advancing SMP op eight to seventy nine,

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<v Speaker 1>a gain of four tenths of one percent. Russian President

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin sat down for a rare and exclusive interview

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<v Speaker 1>with Bloomberg Editor in chief John Michael Thwaite. He did

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<v Speaker 1>speak through an interpreter, took on a number of topics,

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<v Speaker 1>including politics, national security, and also they talked about oil.

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<v Speaker 1>It wasn't us who rejected the ideo of freezing output levels.

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<v Speaker 1>It was our starty partners who at the last moment

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<v Speaker 1>changed their view and decided to take a pos in

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<v Speaker 1>station decision. Yeah, that was repeat. Position hasn't changed. And

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<v Speaker 1>if Prince Sloman and I speak about this, then I

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<v Speaker 1>shall post bloot forward the opposition again. And right now

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<v Speaker 1>we do have West Texas Intermediate crewed up by two

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<v Speaker 1>and a half percent, Gold up nine tenths of one percent,

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<v Speaker 1>Charlie Tellot Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Taking Stock with

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<v Speaker 1>Kathleen Hayes and Pim Box on Bloomberg Radio D two

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<v Speaker 1>Live at the US Tennis Open twenties six team for

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<v Speaker 1>a Flushing Meadows Corona Parks Queen. We've had a terrific

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<v Speaker 1>day here so far. I know he would love to

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<v Speaker 1>be here with me because he loves sports of all kinds.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe next year we'll get Matt Maylee from Boston down

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<v Speaker 1>to New York City to see some tennis and talk

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<v Speaker 1>about the markets, which is what he's here to do

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<v Speaker 1>with us today. Matt Maylely, of course you know him

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<v Speaker 1>well listening to Bloomberg Radio. He's equity strategist at Miller

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<v Speaker 1>tay Back. So Matt's uh, welcome to the show as always, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you. I do need to know, though, right away,

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<v Speaker 1>who was the you know, some of the tennis people

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<v Speaker 1>you've been playing with, because we're talking with this, because

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<v Speaker 1>I do know that you are like the good luck person.

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<v Speaker 1>But I mean eight back, I remember when when when

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<v Speaker 1>Auburn beat Alabama on a missed field goal, like you were,

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<v Speaker 1>you were there like a few days beforehand, and ever

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<v Speaker 1>since then, every time you go to a sportsouting event,

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<v Speaker 1>anybody you meet with it has has it wins and

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<v Speaker 1>when a big way. So we've got to keep from

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<v Speaker 1>from your mouth to all the tennis stars. Ears. Actually,

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<v Speaker 1>we've had a lot of interesting people and we love

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<v Speaker 1>to cover the business aspect of this. But we did

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<v Speaker 1>speak to Alan Krueger, who was the former head of

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<v Speaker 1>Council Leaving Economic Advisors, a leading US labor market expert,

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<v Speaker 1>about the jobs report and about tennis. But Alan said,

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<v Speaker 1>the reports in an economy is chucking along. Okay, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a long expansion, and you know it's it's it's looking

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good. It does probably set the fit up for

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<v Speaker 1>an interest rate increase, et cetera. You know, maybe by

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the year. Uh, what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>about that in the context of what it means for stocks?

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<v Speaker 1>The stocks did reasonably well today. A nice little game. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's a little I mean, I must have been

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<v Speaker 1>I really I really thought that when the when the

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<v Speaker 1>number first came out, I thought that the stocks rally

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit more than they did. But it's still

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<v Speaker 1>a nice game, as you say. But the one thing

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<v Speaker 1>to note is that is that both the bond market,

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<v Speaker 1>the treasury market UH, and the dollar. UH. The race

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<v Speaker 1>moved up and the dollar moved up by the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the day after initially going down in both cases.

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<v Speaker 1>So they seem to think that UH September rate hike

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<v Speaker 1>is still on the table. So we'll just have to

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<v Speaker 1>see what happens, because we do get some set speak

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<v Speaker 1>next week, and I'm sure they'll want to UH find

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<v Speaker 1>tune a little bit what has been said recently by

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<v Speaker 1>UH by UH chair of FETE, chair Yelling, and a

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<v Speaker 1>vice chair of Fisher. So I'll be watching that very

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<v Speaker 1>closely for one of these for stocks. You know, if

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<v Speaker 1>if the markets statten along, we do get higher rates,

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<v Speaker 1>I I do worry that that'll be a bit of

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<v Speaker 1>a headwind for stocks. Well thank you, because so many

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<v Speaker 1>people say, oh, what difference in one quarter point rate hike,

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<v Speaker 1>no big deal, But I don't know if they understand

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<v Speaker 1>how markets think and work to say that one rate

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<v Speaker 1>hike wouldn't make any difference. Frequently markets say that's it.

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<v Speaker 1>They're not just gonna do one, They're gonna keep hiking

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates exactly. And the other half of that, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>is that um, it's not just I mean, people will say, well,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll have a big impact on the economy. Some people

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<v Speaker 1>disagree with that. But even if you do agree with that,

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<v Speaker 1>we do have to note that you look at margins.

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<v Speaker 1>Debt on New York Stock to change is near record highs.

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<v Speaker 1>And like we saw with UH when they had the

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<v Speaker 1>first rate hike, the models for some of these leverage

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<v Speaker 1>investors and when you see the cost of carrying all

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<v Speaker 1>that leverage, all that margin will move up, so they

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<v Speaker 1>will their models will tell them the g You've gotta

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<v Speaker 1>wind some of that leverage, and that will cause the

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<v Speaker 1>sub bit of artificial spelling, and that could weigh on

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<v Speaker 1>the markets more than I think most people realize. So, UH,

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<v Speaker 1>two part question, I guess Number one, is this it

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<v Speaker 1>for the stock market? In I looked to next year

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<v Speaker 1>to see more gains? And what is your strategy in

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<v Speaker 1>the midst of all this? You know, second guessing the

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<v Speaker 1>FED wedding for earnings which we just finished a seasonal

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<v Speaker 1>and be here for what what do you do now? Well?

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<v Speaker 1>I think that you I think you have to play

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<v Speaker 1>on on the defensive side. However, having said that, UH,

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<v Speaker 1>you have to be careful in which defensive groups you

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<v Speaker 1>go into, because you know you look at the utility

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<v Speaker 1>stocks that should been a great, great group this year

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<v Speaker 1>and something we were very positive on, you know, at

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<v Speaker 1>the very unit of the year, and we were early

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<v Speaker 1>on it. But now you've gotten two levels where they

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they've gotten extended on a valuation basis. So

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<v Speaker 1>we've got to be careful there. So I really just think, actually, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, picking your spots, looking at uh, even taking

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<v Speaker 1>a few chips off the table, adding to cash. I

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<v Speaker 1>know it doesn't need to get a whole lot right

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<v Speaker 1>now or really anything, but you know, nobody ever lost

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<v Speaker 1>money taking privates, and you look for opportunities if if

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<v Speaker 1>if in one we do get a decline in the

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<v Speaker 1>in the in the usual volatile fall months. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>Matt Maye, you have a great three day weekend you too,

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<v Speaker 1>and let us know what your schedule is about the

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<v Speaker 1>college football this year. We all need to know it. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>Matt Maye, thank you so very much. Joining us from

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<v Speaker 1>Miller tay Back where he's Equity Strategists in Boston. Now

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<v Speaker 1>we want to turn our attention to Louisiana. As a

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<v Speaker 1>matter of fact, yesterday we're speaking with John so from

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<v Speaker 1>Cumblent advisers. Another tennis fan who covers the municipal bond

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<v Speaker 1>market comes out every year. When I asked him about

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<v Speaker 1>the big risk, one of the big risk to mutis,

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<v Speaker 1>he said, well, we're really concerned about storms in the

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<v Speaker 1>Gulf rebuilding Louisiana, how that has hit people and what

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<v Speaker 1>it could mean for all those communities down there. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And as a matter of fact, on that note, we

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<v Speaker 1>want to bring in someone who knows all about this

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<v Speaker 1>and how difficult it is and what's being done to help.

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<v Speaker 1>Brad Keiserman. He's vice president for Disaster Operations and Logistics

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<v Speaker 1>at the American Red Cross National Headquarters. So Brad, let's

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<v Speaker 1>get right into this. How bad is the situation in Louisiana.

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<v Speaker 1>I'd say this is the worst natural disaster in the

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<v Speaker 1>United States since Hurricane Sandy a few years ago. Which

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<v Speaker 1>is not to say that it is comparable to Sandy,

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<v Speaker 1>although everyone will, well I think, make comparisons. But the

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<v Speaker 1>over six trillion gallons of water fell in Louisiana over

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<v Speaker 1>the forty eight hour period. Um, there's over a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and sixty four thousand structures that have been damaged by

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<v Speaker 1>the flooding. That's twice the number of structures that are

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<v Speaker 1>in Manhattan, So just to give people a sense to

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<v Speaker 1>the magnitude of the damage. Weren't three weeks into this

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<v Speaker 1>and we still had nearly fifteen hundred people in in

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<v Speaker 1>eleven shelters last night, which is not typically what we

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<v Speaker 1>see in any disaster. So a very very significant event,

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<v Speaker 1>tragic for so many people, and most people don't have

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<v Speaker 1>flood insurance, they did not live in a floodplate. I

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<v Speaker 1>just want to stress this because I think sometimes people

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<v Speaker 1>don't realize this is this is like even though maybe

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<v Speaker 1>it's even once in a thousand year event for this region.

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<v Speaker 1>These people were not negligender, careless. They just got hit

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<v Speaker 1>by something absolutely unexpectedly devastating. That's exactly right that the

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<v Speaker 1>vast majority of people who were impacted by the storm,

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<v Speaker 1>and the storm is very much like our hurricane, except

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't. But it's sat on top of Louisiana. It

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<v Speaker 1>was a tropical tropical system, and it can it caused

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<v Speaker 1>that damage. Most of these people did not live in

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<v Speaker 1>a floodplate. They would not have been required to get

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<v Speaker 1>flood insurance as a condition of their mortgage. Uh, and

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<v Speaker 1>so it really is devastating for them, and there's just

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<v Speaker 1>a limit to what's going to be available to help

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<v Speaker 1>them rebuild because as you know, you know, most insurance poemgolage,

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<v Speaker 1>insurance doesn't cover that. The federal the federal programs, while

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<v Speaker 1>they're very generous, certainly are going to pay to rebuild

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<v Speaker 1>an entire home. So it's uh, it's gonna be very

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<v Speaker 1>challenging recovery for many, many people. And now just to

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<v Speaker 1>keep you at the Red Cross very busy and to

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<v Speaker 1>just to keep our minds open for other people in

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<v Speaker 1>this country who are facing storms and hurricanes. Uh, you're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at Florida, you're looking at Hawaii. We are her Mean.

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<v Speaker 1>Hurricane her Mean passed over Florida early this morning and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>we had about five people and about fifty shelters in

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<v Speaker 1>Florida and Georgia overnight. The storm is now passing through

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<v Speaker 1>Georgia up across the Carolinas. It's supposed to go sit

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<v Speaker 1>off shore. Uh, and I think it's going to cause

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<v Speaker 1>tropical winds and rains for much of the mid Atlantic

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<v Speaker 1>into early next week. And we're still concerned that it

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<v Speaker 1>may reintentify into a hurricane and threat in the Northeast.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're doing our our planning for that Hurricane Leicester. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 1>out in the Pacific, about three miles off the coast

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<v Speaker 1>of Hawaii right now, likely will begin impacts here in

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<v Speaker 1>the next few hours and into tomorrow. Fortunately that track

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<v Speaker 1>is is edging a little bit to the north of

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<v Speaker 1>the island, but we still expect at least tropical force

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<v Speaker 1>winds on Oahu and Maui. We've got about eighty people

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<v Speaker 1>out there providing shelter, feeding, and the book relief supplies today. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, down in Louisiana have two thousand people and

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<v Speaker 1>working via Florida Georgia line right now about three people.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's been a very intense, very intense Friday and

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<v Speaker 1>a very intense three weeks. So what's the number one

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<v Speaker 1>thing you have learned now addressing uh, various kinds of flood,

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<v Speaker 1>certain hurricane causes them. What happened in Louisiana. What's what

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<v Speaker 1>is the big realization been for the American Red Cross? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that the most the biggest realization is about

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<v Speaker 1>readiness and about our relationships with local and state emergency

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<v Speaker 1>managers and with our partners in the local area. Those

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<v Speaker 1>relationships are absolutely critical. The one thing you cannot get

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<v Speaker 1>back in a disaster, especially flood is time. So time

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<v Speaker 1>is of the essence and our collective ability to be

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<v Speaker 1>prepared to respond, to open shelters, to begin feeding, to

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<v Speaker 1>do damage assessments, to speed at which that has done

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<v Speaker 1>often determines the caliber of of the of the recovery

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<v Speaker 1>and the response. And so that's probably my hop lesson

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<v Speaker 1>in those relationships and the need for speed. All right, So, Brad, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>these kinds of operations are very expensive. What have you raised?

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<v Speaker 1>What do? What can people do now to help you

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<v Speaker 1>do what must be done? So I think we certainly

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<v Speaker 1>could use donations of funds, generosity and philanthropy much appreciated.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now, we've raised about seventeen point four million designated

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<v Speaker 1>just for Louisiana, but our costs will be the over

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<v Speaker 1>twite as occasion what we're projecting right now with these

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<v Speaker 1>UH literally tens of thousands of shelter stays and meals

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<v Speaker 1>UH and UH and all of the services and and

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<v Speaker 1>UH staff required to provide them. So donations, Folks can

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<v Speaker 1>do that by going to UH called Red Cross. They

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<v Speaker 1>can do that by going to red Cross dot org

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<v Speaker 1>and making a donation there. We also need volunteers that

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<v Speaker 1>we need volunteers in Louisiana, volunteers in Florida. And I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sure this we can admit Atlantic and people can volunteer

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<v Speaker 1>from home. We do have things that you can do

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<v Speaker 1>from your home, virtual support and virtual case work. And

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<v Speaker 1>so if you want to volunteer, go to the Red

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<v Speaker 1>Cross dot org website called your local Red Cross chapter.

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<v Speaker 1>We can really really use you. Brad Kieselman. Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so very much. Something very important to ponder as we

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<v Speaker 1>enjoy the tennis at the US Open and think of

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<v Speaker 1>our fellow Americans who need help. I'm Kathleen Hayes and

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<v Speaker 1>this is Bloomberg