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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody? Scott Bagman here for Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: to give you my favorite picks and props for Week

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Speaker 1: eleven of the college football season, and you can tail

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Speaker 1: me on the Betting Pros app or Bettingpros dot com.

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Speaker 1: Slash Bogman will show you all my picks. Last week

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Speaker 1: was miserable. I mean, there's no other way to say

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Speaker 1: it been great. I was eleven and one the past

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Speaker 1: two weeks before that, but coming into this one one

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Speaker 1: in six on my picks, they were just miserable. Ole

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Speaker 1: miss and Arkansas, and Arkansas scored over ninety points. Indiana

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Speaker 1: was my one that I got. Iowa State just couldn't

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Speaker 1: put up points for whatever reason against Sextas Tech and

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Speaker 1: the wounded up losing that game. I missed the Georgia

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Speaker 1: cover by the hook. Navy and Rice had a six

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Speaker 1: hour rain delay or whatever it was or lightning delay.

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Speaker 1: Nebraska straight up lost to UCLA, and Tennessee did not

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Speaker 1: cover against Kentucky. So just bad picks for me. I

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Speaker 1: was three and four on my props. I was one

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Speaker 1: of two on my touchdown calls and some of those,

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Speaker 1: I mean I missed Chyles Jackson by six yards and

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Speaker 1: miss ted McMillan by like ten yards, so some of

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Speaker 1: them were close. But it was just a bad week, right,

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Speaker 1: and you chalk it up and you're gonna be humbled

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Speaker 1: if you bet long enough. And I was last week.

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Speaker 1: But this is the most important week because it's the

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Speaker 1: next week up. So I have six more picks for you,

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Speaker 1: and I got a bunch of props, So let's get

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Speaker 1: into it. We're gonna start with Miami minus eleven at

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Speaker 1: Georgia Tech. And I know in this game that Georgia

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Speaker 1: Tech is probably going to have those players back Haynes

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Speaker 1: King the quarterback, probably the best player on offense, Jamal

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Speaker 1: Haynes are running back, likely to play. The reason I'm

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Speaker 1: still on Miami because the defense has been bad for Miami.

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Speaker 1: So you look at this game, you know, and go, well,

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Speaker 1: do we trust Miami's defense? Not really, But what I

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Speaker 1: don't trust is Georgia Tech's offense with those two players

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Speaker 1: at less than one hundred percent. And I know that

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Speaker 1: Miami is going to score on anyone because Duke came

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Speaker 1: in last week with a much better defense than Georgia

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Speaker 1: Tech has and Miami rolled him for fifty points. So

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Speaker 1: you know, this may be is probably a late cover.

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Speaker 1: And I know this was the big mistake game as well,

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Speaker 1: where Georgia Tech came back and won. I think Mario

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Speaker 1: chris Ball is gonna want a statement here. I think

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Speaker 1: they are going to want to go ahead and put

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Speaker 1: up a bunch of points here in this game, and

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Speaker 1: I think they win going away. I think this game

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Speaker 1: gets out of hand for Georgia Tech pretty quick. Miami

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Speaker 1: has run the ball more recently, but they still passed

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Speaker 1: a sixty one point four percent clip. And the thing

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Speaker 1: here for Georgia Tech and their defense is they don't

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Speaker 1: put pressure on the quarterback. They are one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty second this season in sacks and cam Ward is

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Speaker 1: the fourth has the fourth highest PFF grade in a

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Speaker 1: clean pocket this year. So give him a clean pocket,

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Speaker 1: he will pick you apart. I think Georgia Tech wins

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Speaker 1: this game going away. Remember cam Ward was not a

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Speaker 1: part of that life last year. He was not involved

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Speaker 1: in that game. Let's go to Washington and Penn State.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the under forty six and

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Speaker 1: a half and this is because I feel like both

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Speaker 1: defenses are ahead of the offenses here. Penn State is

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Speaker 1: top ten in scoring and total defense, team defensive performance

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Speaker 1: the top twenty five and passing defense, rushing defense and

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Speaker 1: grade top twenty five in overall team defense, run defense,

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Speaker 1: pass rushing coverage grades. I mean, this is a very,

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Speaker 1: very strong Penn State defense. It's what has been winning

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Speaker 1: them games. Big ten opponents are averaging only sixteen point

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Speaker 1: two points per game against the nintey Lions, and it's

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Speaker 1: been a tough season offensively for Washington one hundredth in

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Speaker 1: points per game twenty three points six points per game.

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Speaker 1: That drops to twenty point four against Big ten opponents.

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Speaker 1: And Penn State is going to be the best defense

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Speaker 1: that they've played all year. Even if this game does

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Speaker 1: become lopsided, as to spread suggests, Penn State's thirty three

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Speaker 1: points in overtime is the most that they put up

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Speaker 1: in a game, So Washington's defense is solid enough. The

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Speaker 1: lean is heavy here toward the under in this one.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go to South Carolina at Vanderbilt. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: lay the six points and take South Carolina in this game.

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Speaker 1: And Vandy is having a magical season. They're bull eligible

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Speaker 1: for the first times of twenty eighteen. They beat Alabama Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Auburn played Texas real close, but South Carolina has been

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Speaker 1: a bit overlooked. You know. South Carolina put up three

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Speaker 1: hundred and seventy four yards and twenty five points on Alabama.

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Speaker 1: They had thirty five against Ou, But last week when

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Speaker 1: they put up five hundred thirty and forty four points,

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Speaker 1: that's when they broke out. They also had eighteen pressures

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Speaker 1: in three sacks. They're playing at different levels right Vandy

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Speaker 1: is a sixty point five percent run rate team. South

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Speaker 1: Carolina is top twenty against the run. They don't match

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Speaker 1: up well. Diego Pavia is probable. He's going to play

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Speaker 1: in this game. I wouldn't say that he's one hundred percent.

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Speaker 1: And the last two games that Vandy has played are

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Speaker 1: the first two games that they've had a post game

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Speaker 1: would expect to see of less than fifty percent. So

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Speaker 1: I think the magic is running out in Vanderbilt right now.

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Speaker 1: In South Carolina is on the other end, the magic

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Speaker 1: is ticking up for them right now. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: lay the points and take South Carolina in that game.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota minus five and a half at Rutgers. These teams

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Speaker 1: are again two teams going in opposite directions right now.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota has won and covered in four straight games. Rutgers

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Speaker 1: has lost for straight and are three to one against

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Speaker 1: this the spread in that time, so no wins in

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Speaker 1: one push three losses. The only game that Minnesota has

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Speaker 1: really looked bad all year was that Iowa game. Max

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Speaker 1: Brosmer has not had an interception in four straight games.

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Speaker 1: Rutgers offense has been better the last couple of games,

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Speaker 1: but the defense has been tough. They've allowed four hundred

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Speaker 1: yards in the last three straight. Their best player, running

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Speaker 1: back Kyle Managai, might not play in this game. Rutgers

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Speaker 1: is bad against the run to ninety four statistically in

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Speaker 1: eighty six and PFF grade Minnesota seven to one to

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Speaker 1: one against the spread this season. And these teams are

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Speaker 1: just heading in opposite direction. So Rutgers has home field,

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Speaker 1: but I think that's all they have in this game,

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Speaker 1: so I think they're gonna get rolled. We're going to

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Speaker 1: go to two more totals, both overs. Florida State at

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame over forty two and a half, and I

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Speaker 1: expect Notre Dame to get most of this total. Florida

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Speaker 1: State's offense has been completely anemic one hundred and thirtieth

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Speaker 1: in time of possession. Notre Dame should have the ball

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Speaker 1: for most of this game, and they keep rolling teams

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Speaker 1: fifty one to fourteen to Navy, forty nine to seven

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Speaker 1: against Stanford sixty six to seven at Perdue. So when

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Speaker 1: they get rolling downhill, they have been putting up points

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Speaker 1: and not coming off the brakes here. So I think

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Speaker 1: Florida State, or excuse me, Notre Dame, does the heavy

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Speaker 1: lifting in this game. You know, this game is like

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Speaker 1: a thirty five to ten, forty two seven something like that.

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Speaker 1: I think Notre Dame can get all most, if not all,

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Speaker 1: of this total. So you know, Florida State would have

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Speaker 1: to drag him down into the mud. And I just

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Speaker 1: don't think Notre Dame is going to be drug down

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Speaker 1: in the mud. I think that's what everybody thought with

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Speaker 1: Navy last week. It did not work for Navy at all.

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Speaker 1: And Florida State is sitting at one and eight this season.

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Speaker 1: I don't think has enough juice to even get up

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Speaker 1: for this game. I mean getting up for this game

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Speaker 1: would mean they have a good defensive performance. The offense

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Speaker 1: is just so pathetic though They're going to give them

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Speaker 1: extra cracks at it. They're going to give Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: good field position. I just think the way Florida State

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Speaker 1: is playing and the way Notre Dame are playing are

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Speaker 1: again complete opposites. And I think the total is easily

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Speaker 1: over in this and I'm gonna chase. I know maybe

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Speaker 1: I shouldn't chase, but we chase this Texas Tech over

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Speaker 1: last week. It did not pay off because Iowa State

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Speaker 1: couldn't score well. Colorado's coming into town. This week. It's

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Speaker 1: Colorado add Texas Tech til sixty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: And look, Texas Tech did a good job last week.

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Speaker 1: I'm not trying to take away anything from their performance,

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Speaker 1: but they are still rate one hundred twenty six in coverage.

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Speaker 1: They're one hundred and one hundred and thirty third statistically

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Speaker 1: against the pass, and they don't get to the quarterback.

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Speaker 1: They allowed four hundred and thirty two yards to Iowa

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Speaker 1: State last week, so the score was low, but the

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Speaker 1: yards were there in Iowa State just didn't put the

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Speaker 1: ball in the end zone. I don't think this is

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Speaker 1: a Colorado walk, but I do think that they are

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Speaker 1: good enough to put up a bunch of points. I

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Speaker 1: think Texas Tech is going to score these amount of

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Speaker 1: points as well. So the over in this game looks

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Speaker 1: really strong in my opinion as sixty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to chase it. I was wrong last week.

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Speaker 1: If you don't want to take that one, or if

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Speaker 1: you want to fade it, I understand, But I'm just

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Speaker 1: going to keep chasing this Texas Tech defense because they're

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Speaker 1: bad and Colorado passes ball a ton Shor Sanders one

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Speaker 1: of the better quarterbacks in the country, and I think

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Speaker 1: Colorado is going to put up a bunch of points

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Speaker 1: on Texas Tech. Before we get to the props. Are

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Speaker 1: you looking to up your game in sports betting? Join

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Speaker 1: our exclusive sports betting discord community at betting pros dot

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Speaker 1: slash chat. Not only can you connect with expert handicappers

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Speaker 1: who provide free picks for the NBA, NFL, MLB, college

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Speaker 1: sports player props, live betting, and more, but you can

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Speaker 1: also participate in our weekly community picks, cast your vote

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Speaker 1: and see how your picks stack up against the experts,

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Speaker 1: and track your success all over at bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 1: slash chat. All right, let's get to the props. I've

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Speaker 1: got two touchdown calls for you. Trevor Pania, the Syracuse

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Speaker 1: wide receiver, is plus one fifty at Boston College. You're

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Speaker 1: getting a good number because he hasn't scored in a while.

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Speaker 1: I think it's been the last four games. But he's

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Speaker 1: averaging just under ten targets a game. He's the leading

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Speaker 1: receiver for Syracuse and they are fourth in the nation

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Speaker 1: in passing yards and eleventh in passing touchdowns. I think

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Speaker 1: against Boston College, Trevor Pania can easily get back into

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Speaker 1: the end zone. Ryan Williams, the wide receiver for Alabama,

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Speaker 1: is minus one forty at LSU. But I mean this

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Speaker 1: is a bet that you compare with something else that

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Speaker 1: you like. He has seven touchdowns season. He added one

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Speaker 1: some receiving touchdowns. He's added one on the ground as well,

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Speaker 1: so eight total touchdowns this year. He's third in yards

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Speaker 1: on deep balls and touchdowns on deep balls. He has

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Speaker 1: five so far this season. LSU has given up seventy

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Speaker 1: seven plays of ten or more yards. I believe that's

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Speaker 1: right around eightieth in the country. They've given up twenty

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Speaker 1: five plays of twenty plus. And we know that Ryan Williams,

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Speaker 1: we know he's only seventeen and all of that, But

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Speaker 1: he loves to make these plays in these huge games.

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Speaker 1: He did against Georgia. I think he can do it

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Speaker 1: against LSU as well. So let's go with Ryan Williams

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Speaker 1: to score a touchdown. Those are two touchdown calls. Let's

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Speaker 1: go two passing yards. I already explained a little bit of it.

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Speaker 1: But Baron Morton for Texas Tech two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: five and a half yards. This is how Texas Tech scores.

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Speaker 1: This is how Texas Tech plays catch up if they're down.

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Speaker 1: So there's multiple routes to Baron Morton throwing four bunch

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Speaker 1: of yards. You know, I'm not going to take a

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Speaker 1: receiver because whoever Travis Hunter is on has been tough recently.

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Speaker 1: But there's plenty of other receivers. So I know Josh

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Speaker 1: Kelly in this one getting shut down against Travis Hunter,

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Speaker 1: but I think everybody else is going to be able

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Speaker 1: to do it. And you know, Baron Morton is a vet.

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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be fine. Nico. I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: Nico for Tennessee here, two hundred and thirty three and

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Speaker 1: a half yards. It's minus one thirty five, but this

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Speaker 1: is a perfect spot to get Iamaliava's confidence up here

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Speaker 1: right before they played Georgia. It's Mississippi State. Mississippi State

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Speaker 1: is bad. They're one hundred and eighth in passing yards allowed.

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Speaker 1: DJ Lagway got in in relief of Graham Mertz in

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Speaker 1: that game. He was seven and seven. Arch had three

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty four. Beck had over four hundred. Talen

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Speaker 1: Green had over three hundred yards against him. Mississippi State's

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Speaker 1: defense has played miserably this season, And like I said,

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Speaker 1: I just think this is a perfect spot before you

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Speaker 1: go play Georgia. You let Nico sling it, you let

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Speaker 1: him have a good game against a bad defense. You

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Speaker 1: get that confidence up and up and up for him.

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Speaker 1: So I think two hundred thirty three and a half

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Speaker 1: yards is just a little low for him. Rushing yards,

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Speaker 1: you know what, I'm gonna take his teammate Dylan Sampson

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Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty five and a half yards against

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State. They're worse against the run than they are

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Speaker 1: against the pass. They have allowed fifty nine runs of

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Speaker 1: ten plus. He's hit this in four of eight games.

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Speaker 1: He's hit this in three of the last four weeks.

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Speaker 1: Dylan Samson has and again just Mississippi State's defense is pathetic.

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Speaker 1: I think Tennessee again. You know, let's get rolling with

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Speaker 1: confidence before we go play Georgia. Let's put up a

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Speaker 1: lot of points on Mississippi State. Let's do what we're

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Speaker 1: supposed to do and get out of there. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think one hundred and twenty five and a half yards.

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Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, I think he gets over fifty percent

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Speaker 1: on probably two to three big chunk plays and then

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Speaker 1: the rest is just because they hand the ball to

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Speaker 1: him a bunch. So Dylan Sampson over one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty five and a half. I mean, the RJ. Harvey

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Speaker 1: one was one of the few I hit last week,

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Speaker 1: which was a bunch of yards. We're gonna go to

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Speaker 1: that South Carolina Vandy game. We're gonna go to Rocket

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Speaker 1: Sanders seventy one and a half yards at Vandy. He

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Speaker 1: finally looked all way back last week against an M

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Speaker 1: Twenty carries in that game for one hundred and forty

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Speaker 1: four and two. Again, another guy that can pick this

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Speaker 1: up in chunks against Vandy. Fandy has played solid defense,

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Speaker 1: specifically at home, but like I said, it seems like

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Speaker 1: the magic is wearing off. The ego poviy's less than

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent. I think South Carolina holds onto the

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Speaker 1: ball a bunch, which means I think Raheem Sanders gets

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Speaker 1: a lot of cracks at this and a decent amount

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Speaker 1: of carries. And like I said twenty last week, finally

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Speaker 1: looking healthy. He just looks good. I got a bunch

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Speaker 1: of receiving yard prop one, so I'm gonna kind of

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Speaker 1: burn through these ones. Quicker, We're going back to the

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Speaker 1: Xavier restrepo. Well, Miami ninety and a half is his number.

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Speaker 1: He has hit that in three of the last four games.

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Speaker 1: He picks these up in big chunks. He hit his

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Speaker 1: last week on a huge play late. So love Xavier restrepo.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go to Xavier Henderson for Cincinnati against West Virginia.

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Speaker 1: He was shut down by Travis Hunter last week, but

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Speaker 1: they getting WVU now and they're one hundred and fifteen

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Speaker 1: ranked against the pass since he fifty five point two

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Speaker 1: percent pass rate means they're going to pass the ball

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Speaker 1: more than they run it. And he has passed this

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Speaker 1: total in five of eight games this season and is

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Speaker 1: the leading Cincinnati receiver by one hundred yards. So Xavier

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Speaker 1: Henderson I think can easily get this done against WVU.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go on the other side of that, Ryan

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Speaker 1: Williams call and go to Aaron Anderson, the LSU wide

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Speaker 1: receiver fifty three and a half yards. Beating Alabama is

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Speaker 1: through the air is the best way to get to them.

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Speaker 1: We know they pass it over sixty percent clip for LSU,

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Speaker 1: and he has hit this in all but one game

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Speaker 1: so far. So you know the reason he wouldn't hit

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Speaker 1: this is because Alabama just completely dominates on defense and

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Speaker 1: that has not been their mo this season. So we're

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Speaker 1: gonna take Aaron Anderson. We're gonna go to a running

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Speaker 1: back here, Desmond Reid for Pittsburgh thirty three and a

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Speaker 1: half receiving yards first Virginia. He's the third leading receiver

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Speaker 1: for pitt He's hit this in four to seven games.

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Speaker 1: He had thirteen targets last week against SMU Eli Holstein

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Speaker 1: looking a little less than one hundred percent. Maybe they

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Speaker 1: don't want him thrown the ball downfield or hanging in

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Speaker 1: the pocket too long to get hit, so they having

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Speaker 1: him dump the ball off to Desmond Raid a little

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Speaker 1: bit more. I think it's going to lead to at

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Speaker 1: least thirty three and a half yards. I think he

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Speaker 1: can easily get that against Virginia. We're gonna go to

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Speaker 1: a mecca EGBUCA. Over seventy and a half against Perdue.

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Speaker 1: He's hit this in five games. Perdue is getting worse.

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Speaker 1: It seems like every single week. This one is when

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Speaker 1: I think he gets pretty quick. And the last one

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Speaker 1: that I have for you guys, Kyle Williams Washington State

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Speaker 1: over sixty nine and a half receiving yards versus Utah State.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Utah State is one hundred and fourteenth and

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Speaker 1: ten plus yards yard plays allowed passing. He's Kyle Williams

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Speaker 1: is leading Washington State in yards receiving. They're one hundred

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Speaker 1: and tenth against the pass and he is eleventh in

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Speaker 1: yards per catch among wide receivers with at least thirty

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Speaker 1: five catches. So again, Utah State just pathetic on defense.

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Speaker 1: And that's really the name of the game here. We're

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Speaker 1: picking on some bad defenses in these ones with Kyle

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Speaker 1: Williams against Utah State at BUKA, against Purdue, Aaron Anderson

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Speaker 1: kind of against Bama. They've been better, but they're bad

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Speaker 1: against the past. Henderson against West Virginia. That is the

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Speaker 1: name of the game in some of these prompts this week.

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Speaker 1: So that is what I got for you guys. Remember

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Speaker 1: you can follow me on Twitter at Bogman Sports. Good

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Speaker 1: luck in your bets and I We'll see you guys

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Speaker 1: next week. Take it easy, everybody. Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the

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Speaker 1: best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive

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Speaker 1: review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x

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Speaker 1: and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.

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Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com

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