WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: August 17, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:02.000 --> 0:00:05.240 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.320 --> 0:00:08.720 Gay Break for Wednesday, August seventeen, twenty two. Coming up 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:11.800 the shower, Liz Cheney loses her House seat as two 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:15.440 states vote in primary elections. Traders ready for minutes from 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.600 the Fed and retail sales data. China issues a warning 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:21.560 to the US over Taiwan and oil dips as we 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.400 weigh the prospects ever a new to nuclear deal with Iran. 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:28.120 New York City schools abandoned, COVID health screenings and PCR 0:00:28.240 --> 0:00:31.600 test Plus Rudy Julian able to testified today before grand 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:35.000 jury and Georgia. I'm Michael blomen More ahead, I'm John 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:38.200 Stage and sports. The Yankees slump, continue the Bats again 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:40.480 quiet the home loss to Tampa Bay, and the Mets 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:45.800 got shut out in Atlanta. That's all's training. Head on 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:51.560 Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:55.280 d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:59.640 sixties and Francisco Syrius Exam one nineteen and around the 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:02.960 world down Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:09.600 Business app Good morning, I'm John Tucker and I'm Karen 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:12.840 Moscow and US Dock index features are lower this morning. 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:14.600 We are coming up to six o one on Wall Street, 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:16.760 and we checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:20.319 trading day. On Bloomberg Guess and P futures down twenty 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:22.520 three points down, futures down a D twenty five and 0:01:22.640 --> 0:01:25.680 nasdack futures down nat each two. The decks in Germany's 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:28.120 down seven tenths of upper cent, the ten year treasury 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:31.280 down eighteen thirty seconds, held two point eight six percent, 0:01:31.360 --> 0:01:33.320 and a yield on the two year three point to 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:36.440 eight percent. John, We're gonna have more of the markets 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:39.840 in a moment, but first we begin with politics. Republican 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:44.119 Representative Liz Cheney has lost your primary in Wyoming, while 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:48.720 former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin staging political comeback, and Bloomberg 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:53.279 saymy Morris has details from our newsroom. In Washington, Chaney 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:55.640 lost to lawyer Harriet Hagerman, who had been backed by 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:58.520 Donald Trump. Chaney voted to impeach Trump and its co 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:02.320 chair of the House elect Committee investigating the January sixth insurrection. 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:05.040 She warned her supporters about the future of the Republican 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:07.600 Party and the country. If we do not condemn the 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:10.919 conspiracies and the lies, if we do not hold those 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:15.000 responsible to accounts, we will be excusing this conduct, and 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:18.959 it will become a feature of all elections. America will 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:22.080 never be the same. In Alaska, party primaries were replaced 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:24.760 with open primaries. The top four vote getters in each 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:28.160 race advances to the general election in November. Sarah Palin 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:30.600 was among the candidates to advance in the House race. 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:34.280 Senator Lisa Murkowski and challenger Kelly Shabaka earned two of 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.520 the slots in the Senate race. Results are still being 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:39.960 tabulated to determine the final two slots. In Washington, I'm 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:42.359 maybe Morris Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Amy, thank you, but 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:45.400 I'm sticking with politics. President Biden has signed the Inflation 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:50.040 Reduction Act into law. He's handling the landmark bill addressing tax, climate, 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:54.280 and health policy. I'm keeping my campaign commitment no one. 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:58.919 Let me emphasize, no one earning lesson four hundred thousand 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:02.880 dollars a year will pay a penny more in federal tax. 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:06.799 President Biden signed the law with no GOP support from 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:10.520 both chambers of Congress. Republican Congressman Adrian Smith and Nebraska 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:13.320 discussed the bill's impact on the deficit a lady yesterday 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:17.440 on Bloomberg Radio. It's important that the President understand we 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:22.000 cannot just continue without making any changes whatsoever, continue in 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:24.480 the direction of this spending that I think has been 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:27.760 very problematic. The America people expect us to get that 0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:31.760 under control. Nebraska Republican Congressman Adrian Smith made the comments 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.519 on Bloomberg's Sound on Catch the Program weekdays at five 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.640 pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and the markets Now Karen, 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:41.080 where the SMP five hunter posted a small game. Yesterday, 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:45.240 earnings from Walmart and Home Depot boosted sentiment. Today, We're 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:47.440 gonna be watching minutes from the Federal Reserve, which will 0:03:47.480 --> 0:03:50.680 task bets on a pivot towards slower rate highs and 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:54.000 let's get more, from Bloomberg's Michael McKee. After two moves 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.520 of three quarters percent, the size of the feds next 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:59.960 grade increases. In open question, investors may find some clue 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.440 is in the minutes of their last meeting. Those minutes 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:05.240 likely won't settle the question, but they could indicate what 0:04:05.400 --> 0:04:07.880 kind of data officials would need to see to favor 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:11.640 another unusually large increase, with Chairman J. Powell expected to 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:14.280 speak of the Kansas City FEDS Jackson Whole Conference a 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:18.880 week from Friday. Any post minutes market move maybe short lived. 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:22.000 Michael McKee, Bloomberg, Gabrie, all right, Mike, thank you. All 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:24.680 those minutes come around two pm, all street time. But 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:27.320 this morning it's all about the consumer. We get data 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:30.599 on US retail sales for July at eight thirty. MasterCard 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:34.400 Advisor chief economist Michelle Meyer expects another game. The surveys 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:37.920 have shown that consumers are worried. They're trying to plan ahead, 0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:41.080 They're trying to think about how to navigate this economic environment. 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:45.200 But in the interim, they are still outspending. Michelle Meyer 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:49.080 and MasterCard Advisors remains bullish on US spending. Economist predicted 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:51.359 gain of just one tenth of a percent for July 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:54.600 retail sales. Stay tuned for complete coverage and analysis of 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:57.400 the data coming up on Bloomberg Surveillance and when it 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:01.080 comes to earnings, Also about retail today, Bloomberg Jeff Ballinger 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:05.760 reports Target will deliver its earnings this morning. Target made 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:10.040 a strategic decision to rapidly liquidate much of its success inventory. 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:13.040 The second quarter results will indicate whether that was a 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:16.480 good move and whether further mark downs are needed. Bloomberg 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:20.200 Intelligence as Target may have continued to outpace its peers 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:22.840 when it comes to store traffic. The chain has sought 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:26.120 to be surgical and raising prices to protect the perception 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:30.000 of value and maintain customer loyalty. B I says that 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:34.400 may also have weighed on gross margin. Jeff Bullinger, Bloomberg 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:36.320 Day Break, All right, thanks Jeff. At a day after 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:38.920 Home Depot beat estimates, were expected to get earnings from 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:42.679 home improvement retailer Lows today and those earnings just crossing 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:45.839 the Bloomberg. John Lowes reporting second quarter adjusted profit that 0:05:46.000 --> 0:05:49.520 beat analysts estimates again just crossing the Bloomberg. We turned 0:05:49.520 --> 0:05:52.240 to commodities now. Oil continues to drop as Trader's way 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:55.400 the prospects of a few key geopolitical factors right now, 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:58.839 West Texas crewede is higher up half percent or forty 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:01.600 seven cents at eighty seven dollars of barrel plumbers. You 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:03.440 need a young joins us live at the story. We 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:05.800 need a good morning. Good morning, Karen w. T I 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:09.680 future has dropped more than three percent yesterday, closing below 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:12.680 eighty seven dollars of barrel. They're also lowered this morning 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:16.799 as talks between Iran and the European Union signal progress 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:19.839 toward a renewed nuclear deal that could open the door 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:23.440 to crude shipments from the Islamic Republic. A Wanda market 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:25.960 analysis says the potential for a deal creates a two 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:28.560 way risk for the price of oil, but the primary 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:31.000 driver of the current weakness is the threat of a 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:35.800 global recession at coronavirus lockdowns in China. Live in New York, 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:38.560 I'm gonna need a Young Bloomberg daybreak thanks. In the 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:42.679 UK today, data show inflation accelerating yet again, consumer prices 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:45.840 rising by double digits in July at an annual phase 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:48.960 of ten point one percent, and Bloomberus Leslie Burden of 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:52.520 London says rising food prices now adding to the squeeze 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:55.680 on UK consumers. Food is actually the biggest contribute to 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:57.960 which means that the poorest households again to be hit 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:01.680 the hardest, but it's also broad face recreation culture with 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:04.760 the next biggest contributors. And not worrying for the Bank 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:06.599 of England because it indicates that this is going to 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:10.360 last longer. Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden says traders are now ramping 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:13.000 up bets that the Bank of England will raise rates 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:17.160 by fifty basis points at their meeting in September. You're 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:24.080 listening to Bloomberg Daybreak, and that brings us to six 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.960 oh seven on Wall Street and time to find out 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:29.040 what else is going on in New York and around 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:32.040 the world. Good morning, Michael Barr, Good morning. John. Rudy 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:35.680 Giuliani is scheduled to appear today and the Atlanta Courthouse 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:39.720 to testify before a special grand jury and an investigation 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:43.120 into possible illegal attempts to influence the twenty one the 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:46.400 election in Georgia. The former New York mayor and attorney 0:07:46.440 --> 0:07:50.120 for former President Donald Trump is the target of the investigation. 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:54.960 Any questioning will take place behind closed doors. Nonprofits and 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:59.080 New York City social services say they've been stretched thin 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:02.640 trying to account Mandy asylum seekers and migrants who often 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:06.560 are bussed in unannounced and in unknown numbers from Texas 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:10.960 and Arizona. Catholic Charities executives say they're working with families 0:08:10.960 --> 0:08:15.520 to provide essentials and more Cardinal Timothy Dolan at Dawns 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:19.400 and me. These just aren't cases. These just aren't uh, 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:24.480 these just aren't problems. These just aren't statistics. These are 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:29.080 not just refugees and asylum seekers in the plural. These 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:33.440 are people with names, Cardinal Dolan as New York City 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:37.239 officials estimate around twenty eight hundred migrants have been transported 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:40.360 recently into the city from border towns. The New York 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:44.079 City Department of Education is relaxing COVID nineteen protocols for 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:46.880 students and staff ahead of the start of the new 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:50.240 school year. According to the guidelines, the district will no 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:54.839 longer require daily health screenings to enter school buildings, nor 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:59.720 will it conduct in school PCR surveillance testing. Iranian officials 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:02.280 have confirmed that they have submitted a written response to 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:06.319 the latest EU draft to revive the nuclear deal, Bloomberg said. 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:09.920 Baxter reports the US is watching closely. Bloomberg sources are 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:12.480 saying that it may ask for a couple of adjustments 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.520 in the pact, to which the US State Department spokesman 0:09:15.559 --> 0:09:19.160 that Price says, there is a red line. We are committed. 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.880 President Biden has made a solemn commitment that Iran will 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:26.120 never obtain a nuclear weapon that in its own right 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:32.080 is something that UM redounds to our national security, but 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:34.760 price as the US will go through the response with 0:09:34.840 --> 0:09:38.320 hopes of a deal in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter, 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:41.280 Bloomberg Day Bright opening statements are scheduled to begin today 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:44.440 and the latest federal trial for singer R. Kelly and Chicago. 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:48.120 He is accused of enticing miners for sex, producing child porn, 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:51.480 and fixing his two thousand eight state child porn trial 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:54.320 at which he was acquitted. Global tams twenty four hours 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:57.080 a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by 0:09:57.080 --> 0:10:00.280 more than seven hundred journalists and analysts more than trees. 0:10:00.440 --> 0:10:02.880 I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg, John, Michael, thank you, 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:10.000 and that brings us to six ten off Wall Street 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:13.840 time down for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's thanks, John. 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:15.840 Test start to the week for New York baseball. The 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:18.120 night after the Yankees and Mets lost games by combined 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.600 seven team to one, they lost by a combined eight 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:23.560 to one, and for the Yankees, the tailspin continues. Eleven 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:26.360 losses in the last thirteen games. Going further back, just 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:29.559 eleven wins in thirty three games, are short of losing 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:32.960 a fifth consecutive series. Aaron Boone's team beat by Tampa 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:35.640 Bay three to one. You can't let the frustration get 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:40.560 in your way of of you know, preparing and you know, 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:43.000 getting ready to go every night. You know, we've got 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:45.760 a few guys that are in a rut. We gotta 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:48.839 we gotta prepare and get ready and fight our way 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:51.800 out of it. You know, it's part of it. And uh, 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:53.720 you know it's no fun when you're going through it. 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:56.360 But that's where we are right now. Have scored just 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:58.439 one run over the last three games on the Mets 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.320 and two games in Atlanta only one run, shutout by 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:03.839 Charlie Morton and the Braves five to nothing, Atlanta's eighth 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:06.000 win in a row since losing four or five to 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:08.199 the Mets at City Field. That Met Division lead over 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:10.120 the Braises down to three and a half. The good 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:12.760 news of the Mets Max Schers at pitches tonight, Jacob 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:15.600 to Graham tomorrow. Good news for the Jet Zach Wilson's 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:18.560 knee surgery went well, No additional damage was found. It's 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.520 still likely that Wilson will miss the season opener, which 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:23.800 would meet veteran Joe Flacco would face his old team 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:26.920 of Baltimore Ravens and the Giants preseason opener. They're veteran 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:31.000 backup few beat Tyrod Taylor look good. Coach Brian Dabele said, Taylor, 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:34.239 we'll get some reps with the first team. He downplayed 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:37.320 any significance to that. He insisted Daniel Jones as the starter. 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:40.520 The Athletic reports trade tops are again heating up between 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:42.600 the Nicks and Utah Jazz for a deal that would 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:45.440 bring all star Donovan Mitchell to New York. John stash 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:47.960 Award Bloomberg Sports. John John thanks a lot of hit 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.080 of the camp show called Wall Street Futures right now 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:53.280 in the red, the down futures down one hundred thirty 0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:55.880 four points, that's the declined about four tensi or per 0:11:55.920 --> 0:12:00.040 cent SMP IMMNI futures twenty five points slower, and the 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:04.880 Nastic futures are down nine points. This is Bloomberg day 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:11.600 Break and just ahead on Bloomberg, UK inflation hits double 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:14.839 digits for the first time in forty years. We'll break 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:19.080 it down with Marcus Afsworth the Bloomberg Opinion Columness for 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:25.000 the UK markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours 0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:28.000 a day at Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Business Out 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:38.319 and at Bloomberg Quicktape's a Bloomberg Business Flash. And I'm 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:41.160 Karen Mostown watching shares the loads this morning. They're on 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:43.960 the rise there, up more than three at early trading. 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:46.960 The homemt proom in retailer reported second quarter profit that 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.840 beat analysts estimates. Still comps sales in the quarter missed. 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:54.080 Futures this morning are lower as concerns over the Federal 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:57.680 Reserve's aggressive rate high path outweighs robust corporate earnings and 0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:00.400 Shina's stimulus plants, and we check them mark. It's every 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:03.520 fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. Right now, 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:06.120 S and P futures are done about twenty five points 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:09.400 and DOWN futures are down one thirty two and NASDEG 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:13.520 futures down a hundred. The tenure Treasury is down seventeen 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.319 thirty seconds, held two point eight six percent. They yield 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.640 on the two year three point to nine percent. NIMEX 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.360 screwed oil is up more than one percent. It's up 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:24.880 ninety two cents at eighty seven dollars forty five cents 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.480 of barrel comes. Gold is down about a tenth of 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:29.880 a percent on a dollar thirty as seventeen eighty eight 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:34.719 forty announced. The euro is at one point o one 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.280 seven seven against the dollar, British found one point two 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:39.679 zero nine nine, and the en mon thirty four point 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:41.880 h u and looking at it bitcoin, it's down about 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:45.319 one percent at twenty three thousand, seven hundred fifty dollars. 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.120 That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:51.120 more on what's going on around the world. Michael Karen, 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:54.400 thank you very much. Wyoming Representative List Cheney, donald Trump's 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:57.880 fierce is a Republican adversary in Congress, has been defeated 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:01.640 in a GOP primary. She fell tuesday to Harry and 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:06.000 Hagaman arrival, backed by the former president, sixty six percent 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:10.679 to twe President Joe Biden signed a sweeping tax, climate, 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.000 and healthcare measure into law. The measure, known as the 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:18.080 Inflation Reduction Act, would also cap and lower the price 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:22.000 in medicines for seniors. In baseball, the Yankees and Mets lost, 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:25.720 the Red Sox and Orioles won, The Nationals lost, the 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:29.960 A's and Giants won. Global News twenty four hours a 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:33.160 day on here and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:36.240 more than twenty seven hundred journalists analysts in more than 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:39.800 a hundred twenty countries. How Michael bar this is Bloomberg, Michael, 0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:42.200 thank you, six twenty out Wall Street. We are lying 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:45.640 for the Bloomberg Interact, a broker's studios. This is Bloomberg 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:50.160 day Break. Inflation in the UK accelerated more than expended 0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:52.920 last month to the highest and forty years. Let's take 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:56.000 a deeper dive this morning, joining us, I'm happy to say, 0:14:56.000 --> 0:15:00.160 Bloomberg opinion columnist Marcus Ashworth. And before we die even 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:03.720 into the data, the policy implications, what's the impact of 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.760 all this on just the the average Joe there in 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:11.400 the UK. Well, the average show is is waking up 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.920 a bit to the realization we've got double dishc inflation. Um. 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:18.040 I think it's shocked funny after sterling money markets and 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:22.680 the bond markets more than perhaps the mount on the street. Actually, um, 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:24.880 everyone got a bit complacent. We've seen a better than 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:28.440 expected US inflation last week and sort of thought somehow 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:30.600 the same would have happened over here. It made you, 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.360 in fact, next month it's certainly go to because finally 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.760 we've got petrol or gasting prices falling a long last, 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.040 but it wasn't where did July and all of food 0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:44.200 prices and we've got a worse than expected number and 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:47.800 it's completely taken markets by surprise, and I think everyone's 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:50.600 now expecting instead of twenty five basis points for the 0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:53.120 Bank of England said to have a ten for the 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.440 meetnext but it will be fifty basis points. So we're 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:58.040 gonna have to catch up a bit with you guys 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:00.360 the fence. You know, it started four months up later 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:03.080 in the Bank of England, but you've accelerated, Pastors, and 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:05.680 we're we're living as an in your wake. Okay, So 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:10.400 rate differentials really do matter, especially with foreign exchange. So 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:14.000 what's the impact on sterling? Where does that go and 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.560 how does that complicated things. It's not really Sterling that's 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.920 moved because it just you know, it's being kept up 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:25.160 just about by expectations are slightly higher rate hike. Sterling 0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:27.920 is still just wafting around in the wake of what 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:30.040 King Dollar wants to do. A bit like the euro 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:32.360 is that it's all about the dollar in FX terms. 0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:34.920 The stock market isn't that fast, Dieter big. But the 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:38.840 point is is that money markets got this wrong, badly wrong, 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:43.000 and had been expecting, for some reason, a much better number. 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.360 Uh in fact, expecting it to beat expectations, because it 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.720 was much worse expectations by an extra three tents. And 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:51.920 that's called everyone out today. So it's a it's a 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:55.520 violent market in a short end money market rates for 0:16:55.520 --> 0:17:00.840 sure in Okay today. Does this underscore policy errors or one? 0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:04.320 I mean, what's what's behind it? Yeah, it's policy is 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:07.520 Actually for one time, I'm probably the bank having recently 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:10.439 I've been right to call this out. I think the 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.639 market hasn't taken them as seriously. Perhaps it might have 0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:15.840 been because the bank aving struct record has been so 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:18.679 poor this time around, the Bank having and we're right 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:23.440 to forecasts more aggressively perhaps than other people. Their forecast 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:27.040 was also wrong, but less wrong than perhaps the markets was. 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:30.119 Um So, yeah, well everyone's a bit of said this 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:32.960 array here. I mean it's it's I said it's it's 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:36.800 going to be bad for in October, much worse in October. 0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:39.200 We think it's gonna go up to over because we 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.080 have this energy price cap lifting. Um So we might 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:44.800 get a couple of better numbers next in August and September, 0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:46.960 but we know for sure it's gonna get worse again 0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:53.800 in October. But market said policy isn't going to address that, right, Well, 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:55.720 I thought, what else can they do. They've left it 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:57.840 too late, and they're gonna have to do something. They're 0:17:57.840 --> 0:17:59.960 gonna have to get rates up there at one point 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.080 seven five percent, they're going to get them up to 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:05.159 two and a quarter, probably two and three quarters by 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:06.840 the end of the year at least, and then by 0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:09.480 that stage, as I said, the fourth quarter going into 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:11.879 the next one next year, the banging is predicting a 0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:16.040 recession or start of recession, and that's um at the moment. 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:19.000 We're already bumbling around around zero growth anyway, so you 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:21.639 know it's going to push the market uh into the 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:24.679 economy into recession. And yeah, they'll have to they'll have 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:26.439 to be careful how much they start hiking into st 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:29.040 rates then, so better get it done now. But it's 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:32.080 not a great UH forecast, is it to keep on 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:33.959 hiking to try and get rid of inflation, but at 0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:37.520 the same time pushing economy into into decline. Yeah, you've 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:42.040 got where's you say recession looming, possibly double digit and 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:46.680 what's the next locust. No, we had locus. We we've 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:50.720 had a drought as a lot of Europe has um. Yeah, 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:53.000 it's it's that the travel is is that the UK 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:56.119 is no different position really than the US or Europe 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:59.960 in certain ways. It's got slightly better economy perhaps fundament 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.040 clean in Europe. But inflation is certainly pretty perky here. 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:06.840 But we've got great balance sheets in corporate and households 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:09.680 and and the banks. That's the savings, that's the good news. 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:12.959 But the point is we were tightening fiscal policy up 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.000 to very recently. We're having this battle for to become 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.480 the next prime minister. Almost certainly we're going to get 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:20.640 a fiscal spend, a spurge, but it's probably will be 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:25.040 not enough and certainly too late. Always a pleasure appreciative 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:28.000 mark will end on a positive note there, Bloomberg Opinion. 0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:32.840 Gollumnus Marcus Ashworth and ahead of the cash open on 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:35.399 Wall Street, and well, let me give you a pound 0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:42.919 quill right here at one, right now, so that's relatively unchanged. 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:46.119 That's that's cable compared to the dollar down future is 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:50.200 right now one hundred fifty point slower. SMP evening futures 0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:53.320 they're down twenty seven points right now, and the Nasdaq 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:58.040 futures one hundred eight points lower. And you're listening the 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:08.000 Bloomberg day Break and the Bloomberg Weather for it today 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:10.879 partial sun, developing, chance of an isolated shower this morning 0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:15.560 to night clear a loose sixty seven to Mars outlet 0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:19.520 partly mostly Sundays. You're topping out in the mid eighties, 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:26.720 broadcasting y from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York, 0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:30.280 Bloomberg E loving freon to Washington, d C, Bloomberg ninety 0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:34.119 one to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, 0:20:34.200 --> 0:20:37.920 Bloomberg sixty to the country Sirius XM Chado one nine 0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:41.440 t and around the globe the Bloomberg Business and Bloomberg 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:50.920 Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's six thirty 0:20:50.960 --> 0:20:53.359 on Wall Street. Good morning. I'm John Tucker and I'm 0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:56.080 Karen Moscow. We are just about three hours away from 0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:58.040 the open of US trading. It's time for the five 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:00.320 things that you need to notice start your day, wrote 0:21:00.400 --> 0:21:04.919 you by Interactive Brokers. Interactive Brokers Global Analysts helps you 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:08.679 find a global investment opportunities to diversify your portfolio and 0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:12.360 discover undervalued companies that may have greater growth potential. Try 0:21:12.359 --> 0:21:14.840 i v k our Global Analysts today at ibk R 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:19.320 dot com. Slash g A first Republican representative, as Cheney 0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:22.919 lost her primary in Wyoming to Harriet Hageman, who was 0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:26.399 backed by former President Trump. Cheney says Trump still fanning 0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:30.159 the flames of violence. Our nation is barreling once again 0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:34.399 towards crisis, lawlessness, and violence. Let's Chaney, who co chairs 0:21:34.400 --> 0:21:37.359 the House of January six committee, warned stolen election of 0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:40.760 rhetoric could become normalized if former President Trump is not 0:21:40.880 --> 0:21:44.359 held accountable. In Alaska, the former governor Sarah pale in 0:21:44.400 --> 0:21:46.800 advance to the general election of November for the state's 0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:50.560 open house seat, and Alanska Senator Lisa Murkowski and Trump 0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:54.280 Act challenger Kelly Shabaka earned two of the slots in 0:21:54.320 --> 0:21:56.800 the Senate race, with the results still being tabulated to 0:21:56.880 --> 0:22:00.920 determine the final two slots. Marcus john where the SNP 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:04.040 five hardard posted a small game yesterday. Today Market shill 0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:06.000 watch minutes from the Fed do out at around two 0:22:06.040 --> 0:22:08.640 pm All Street time and July retail sales data which 0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:10.760 is out at eight thirty, and markets also going to 0:22:10.840 --> 0:22:14.080 react at earnings today from lows and target lows are 0:22:14.160 --> 0:22:17.480 just reporting results adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter, 0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:21.960 beating the average analyst estimate. The commodities now, John Oil's 0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:24.840 slide continues as traders way the prospects of a few 0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:28.800 key geo political factors. Right now, West Texas crewed is higher, 0:22:28.880 --> 0:22:31.040 up seven tenths per cent or sixty cents at eighty 0:22:31.080 --> 0:22:33.840 seven dollars fourteen cents a barrel, and bloombars We need 0:22:33.920 --> 0:22:36.399