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Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of is information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree? A five dollars? This is a regular lesson?

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Speaker 1: Howbou they tackle one? You're saying that humans need fantasy

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Speaker 1: to make life bearable. Humans need fantasy to be human?

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Speaker 1: My goodness, miss good I suppose the best, relentless, refusing

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Speaker 1: to give up. All right, hit that horn, bab less.

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Speaker 2: What's up everybody?

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Speaker 1: And welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 1: Chris Raybon, joined as always by one of the top

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Speaker 1: fantasy football rankers in the game, Sean Kerner, and today

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Speaker 1: we're going to be talking all about running backs. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna go to the top twelve running backs by ADP.

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Speaker 1: What up, Sean?

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Speaker 2: What's up?

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Speaker 1: Man?

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Speaker 2: I am high first week of real preseason this week.

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Speaker 2: Next week we're actually going to the MS Texans games.

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Speaker 2: So the next couple weeks are going to be very

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Speaker 2: exciting and running back like this is one of my

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Speaker 2: favorite positions to talk about every year. So super hyped

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Speaker 2: about today's pod.

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Speaker 1: And before we get into it, we have a contest winner.

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Speaker 1: You get a free year of action pro Irvin eight

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Speaker 1: seven five, So congratulations and thank you for the kind

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Speaker 1: words in a review. You can hit up podcasts at

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Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com to claim your free year of Action Pro,

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Speaker 1: which of course comes with our rankings and projections. If

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Speaker 1: you like the show, be sure to leave us a

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Speaker 1: five star will pick the best one each week to

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Speaker 1: give you a free year of Action Pro. So stay

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Speaker 1: tuned for that. Let's jump right into these running backs,

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Speaker 1: and I guess it's worth revisiting Sean before we jump in, Like,

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Speaker 1: what's your approach at running back heading into this year?

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Speaker 2: Is it?

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Speaker 1: Are you going kind of for the zero running back?

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Speaker 1: Are you going for a zero running back like any

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Speaker 1: of those strategies? Are you just kind of taking with

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Speaker 1: the draft gives you? How are you going about it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I don't adhere to anyone's specific buzzword strategy. I

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Speaker 2: let the draft come to me. It really does depend

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Speaker 2: on your draft slot when it comes at the running

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Speaker 2: back position. How I approach it. I do let it

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Speaker 2: come to me. And you know, the first couple rounds, like,

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Speaker 2: you definitely want to get a workhorse back, so I'm

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Speaker 2: not opposed to taking them, but the running back, those

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Speaker 2: kind of running backs are very fragile, where if they

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Speaker 2: get hurt, it really screws you over. And that's why

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Speaker 2: running back has so much volatility. It's it's the position

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Speaker 2: that takes the most hits every game, so it's the

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Speaker 2: most likely to get hurt. So that's why I do

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Speaker 2: thrive on taking these mid round to late round running backs.

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Speaker 2: I have my running back upside chart out this week

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Speaker 2: where you can get running backs that are anti fragile,

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Speaker 2: that benefit on the chaos, and their value can really

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Speaker 2: only go up if the start missus time. So I'm

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Speaker 2: confident in my ability to kind of get late round

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Speaker 2: value stash, kind of like injury upside backs. So that's

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Speaker 2: why I'm you know, I don't just go all in

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Speaker 2: on running back early on. I do prefer, you know,

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Speaker 2: to get like an elite wide receiver in round one

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Speaker 2: if I can help it, because that position, it's just

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Speaker 2: it's way tougher to get guys like that later on

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Speaker 2: that can produce like a wide receiver two or even

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Speaker 2: wide receiver one. It's even tougher to find guys on

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Speaker 2: the waiverire end season. You just don't have that baked

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Speaker 2: in upside. If you know a teammate were to go down,

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Speaker 2: you take the backup. You don't have that luxury wide receiver.

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Speaker 2: So I do like to attack wide receiver early on,

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Speaker 2: but again, I'm not opposed to take a work carse

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Speaker 2: back early in the draft.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. You and I recently spoke with Jeff Ratcliffe. That

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Speaker 1: podcast is out now, and we kind of talked about

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Speaker 1: how you know there is a drop off at wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: I think after those first like nine ten guys. So

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Speaker 1: I do think it's important to get a wide receiver

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Speaker 1: one here. So let's talk about these running backs and

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Speaker 1: you know which ones we he you know, would still

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Speaker 1: take early on, which ones maybe we'd rather kind of

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Speaker 1: forego for a wide receiver. We're starting with Jonathan Taylor.

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Speaker 1: He's at the top of pretty much every draft board.

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Speaker 1: I guess. I mean the question when you have a

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Speaker 1: guy coming off a season like this, how much regression

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Speaker 1: is coming? And are you concerned at all about the

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Speaker 1: three hundred and seventy two touches we have seen in

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Speaker 1: the past. You know, running backs put up these massive

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Speaker 1: touch counts and it's tough to kind of do it

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Speaker 1: back to back.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's gonna be tough for him to

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Speaker 2: match last year's numbers, But it doesn't mean that you

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Speaker 2: shouldn't take him the first running back off the board,

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Speaker 2: or even the first overall, so we should see some regression.

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Speaker 2: I think one of the sneaky areas where we could

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Speaker 2: see some regression with him is the Colts led the

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Speaker 2: league in time and possession with the lead last year,

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Speaker 2: So unless you think they're going to be you know,

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Speaker 2: runaway Super Bowl favorites, I don't know why they would

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Speaker 2: lead the league in time possession of the lead again

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Speaker 2: this year. So they could have slightly more trailing game

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Speaker 2: scripts be a little bit more pass heavy, which would

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Speaker 2: hurt Jonathan Taylor because he doesn't really provide much receiving upside.

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Speaker 2: So if they are trailing a bit more, we would

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Speaker 2: see more Nahem Hines less carries overall. So I think

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Speaker 2: that's where there might be some sneaky aggression or in

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Speaker 2: just just injury luck in general. I guess apparently he's

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Speaker 2: never missed a practice, a game or anything in high school,

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Speaker 2: college or the NFL, which is remarkable thing about it

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Speaker 2: says about him. Maybe he's just really durable you know

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Speaker 2: running back. But either way, like you can't escape injury

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Speaker 2: in the NFL, so he's not going to be injury proof.

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Speaker 2: His entire career, so that's another area we might see

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Speaker 2: some regression, but either way, he's still the number one

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Speaker 2: back overall. Still think he's going to just you know,

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Speaker 2: outperform everybody when he's healthy, so he still warrants the

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Speaker 2: first overall pick.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think, you know, you'll see some more

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Speaker 1: naim Hines and in passing situations. But I mean the

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Speaker 1: Coats they still play in that division with Jacksonville Houston, Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: so that's kind of why they always have what he's leads.

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Speaker 2: Definitely have an easy schedule.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so yeah, I have no nothing real, no real

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Speaker 1: hold of pok and tailor.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: The only thing is you just hope he can continue

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Speaker 1: to kind of withstand the beating. But he has he

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Speaker 1: has so far. I think the offensive line is still

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Speaker 1: pretty solid, and I think they actually got an great

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Speaker 1: quarterback as well, so yep, that might help. Austin Eckler

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Speaker 1: is now the number two running back in ADP. That's

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Speaker 1: kind of interesting. I love echwhere. I mean every year

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Speaker 1: I feel like he gets underdrafted until now. I mean

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Speaker 1: he averaged seventeen point three touches per game last year.

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Speaker 1: Is that enough for his running back to add.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so he only averaged twelve point nine rush attempts

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Speaker 2: per game last season, which isn't great if you're taking

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Speaker 2: guy in the top three, you know, but when it

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Speaker 2: comes to you know, high value touches or just usage,

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Speaker 2: he was elite. He had fourteen rusher attempts inside the

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Speaker 2: five guer line, which ranked four worth last year, so

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Speaker 2: he that was kind of a surprise to me. So

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Speaker 2: he is their goal line back. He's going to have,

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Speaker 2: you know, touch on upside again. This year. He led

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Speaker 2: the league in routes run inside the ten yard line,

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Speaker 2: so he has touchdown usage in the passing game as well,

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Speaker 2: and he ranked second in targets for running backs with

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Speaker 2: ninety three. So you know, when it comes to receptions

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Speaker 2: and usage around the goal line, you know, he's elite

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Speaker 2: in every level. So if he's not getting you know,

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Speaker 2: a carry on their own thirty yard line for four yards,

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Speaker 2: does that really kill you? Probably not, So I think

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Speaker 2: that running back too is probably steep. I think I

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Speaker 2: would rather take CMC there, but certainly Eckler should be

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Speaker 2: a top three just based on the touches he is getting,

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Speaker 2: so I wouldn't let his you know, they like to

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Speaker 2: limit his rushing usage a bit. I wouldn't let that

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Speaker 2: scare you away from him. He's still getting high value

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Speaker 2: touches in one of the most dynamic and high scoring

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Speaker 2: offenses in the league. So that's kind of why you're

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Speaker 2: taking a clayer.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember, you know, last couple of years, I

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Speaker 1: was saying, Echwer is kind of like a baby Christian McCaffrey,

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Speaker 1: like you can, you could have got him later, and

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Speaker 1: he look what he did last year. He gave you

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Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey numbers essentially a little bit different way, but

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Speaker 1: all in all, I mean he was he was right

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Speaker 1: there in that top three. Now I can get McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: after Equers, So now I feel like, you know, now

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Speaker 1: I'm off of him, not like off of him, as

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Speaker 1: in like, oh I'm down on him, but I mean

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Speaker 1: RB two. Like you said, I still think Christian McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: deserves to be above him. And you could make a

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Speaker 1: case for you know, Derrick Henry. You know, I think

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Speaker 1: Najee Harris is even you know, kind of in that

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Speaker 1: conversation as well, just because of the snaps, because this

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Speaker 1: Charger's offense is gonna be good. But they got a

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Speaker 1: like they got a lot of different you know, guys

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Speaker 1: that can score the ball. They've they've been wanting to

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Speaker 1: get another running back involved, you know, to take some

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Speaker 1: of the pressure off of him. He had a career

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Speaker 1: high two hundred and six carries last year and the

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Speaker 1: twelve touchdowns, I mean he had one touchdown year before rushing. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, so I just see a little bit too

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Speaker 1: wide of a range of outcomes for pick number two.

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Speaker 1: I think the you know, last year, with the year

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Speaker 1: to draft back where you got, you could get him like,

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Speaker 1: you know, eleventh twelve and look what he did.

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Speaker 2: He finished. Are you worried about Isaiah Stiller at all?

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Speaker 1: Now? Worried is the wrong word. I just think that

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Speaker 1: there's kind of like with Deebo Samuel, when you have

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Speaker 1: a player getting this usage and it's it's you know,

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Speaker 1: it could be in the passing game, it could be

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Speaker 1: in the run game. You know, he had twelve rushing

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Speaker 1: touchdowns last year after having one year before. That just

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Speaker 1: shows you the kind of range of outcomes that we're

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Speaker 1: dealing with with this player. And so at number two,

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Speaker 1: I just rather take somebody with a little bit less

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Speaker 1: of a wide range of outcomes and I think I

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Speaker 1: think you could make a case for McCaffrey, Henry Harris Cook.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I just feel better about those guys at

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Speaker 1: number two or just you know, Cooper Cup, Justin Jefferson.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: And McCaffrey is number three. And I mean we talk

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Speaker 1: about this all the time, and it's like projecting miss

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Speaker 1: games is it's foolish, Like it's every running back has

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Speaker 1: a chance to get hurt. You can't really over rate

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Speaker 1: a running backs chances of missing games, so you can't

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Speaker 1: underrat it either. But I feel like people are kind

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Speaker 1: of sleeping on McCaffrey a little bit, you know, bumping

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Speaker 1: them behind Eckler. So I mean, how much are you

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Speaker 1: kind of fatoring in his recent injuries.

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Speaker 2: None? Really, I think that's why you get him at

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Speaker 2: a discount. And I understand the concern he's he's only

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Speaker 2: played ten of the past thirty three games. You know,

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Speaker 2: how can you trust him? But I think you made

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Speaker 2: a good point, like when it comes to you know,

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Speaker 2: injury concerns or anything, I only take that on account

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Speaker 2: when the guy's actually hurt. We just have to assume

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Speaker 2: if a guy is one hundred percent healthy, there's no

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Speaker 2: reason to think, you know, he's an injury risk. We

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Speaker 2: did that last year with Saikwon Barkley, who was actually

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Speaker 2: limping into the season. That's why we were fading him,

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Speaker 2: he was already hurt. But with Chris McCaffrey getting one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent healthy right now, there's no reason to think

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Speaker 2: that he'll play less games than other running backs. So

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Speaker 2: I'm really not docking him at all when it comes

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Speaker 2: to miss games. Plus, you know, he's a good pass

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Speaker 2: catching back. The Panthers are probably going to be pretty

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Speaker 2: bad this year, so they're gonna have plenty of negative

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Speaker 2: game scripts that helps McCaffrey. I do think they might

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Speaker 2: use Deontay Foreman and Tuba Hubbard possibly to kind of

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Speaker 2: limit the less important carriers, like I was talking about

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Speaker 2: Austin Eckler. They might limit his you should usage on

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Speaker 2: their own thirty or something like that with those guys.

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Speaker 2: But I don't really think they're going to eat into

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Speaker 2: the high value touches that we've seen from him. So

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Speaker 2: when he's been healthy, he's still been a top back.

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Speaker 2: So that's why I'm not shying away at all. If anything,

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Speaker 2: we just get him at a discount this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and he should be fresh. I mean he's thirty six,

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Speaker 1: so he's got maybe a couple of years left in

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Speaker 1: his prime. But he had those four hundred and three

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Speaker 1: touches in what was it, twenty nineteen, and then he's

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Speaker 1: only had about two hundred the last two years, so

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Speaker 1: he should be fresh, you know, one for one, you know,

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Speaker 1: EQUI vers McCaffrey, Give me McCaffrey this year and now,

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Speaker 1: and then Dereck Henry speaking of injuries, I mean he

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Speaker 1: was indestructible. I mean we were projecting him for like,

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Speaker 1: you know what, sixteen games played, which is like unheard

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Speaker 1: of from yah. And of course he you know, messes

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Speaker 1: up his foot, misses eight games. But I feel like

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Speaker 1: people might still be underestimating him. Again, it's kind of

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Speaker 1: like McCaffrey, Like this man, Dereck Henry averaged twenty seven

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Speaker 1: point four Harry's per game, Like that's if he like,

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Speaker 1: no one's coming close to that. He like even Jonathan Taylor.

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Speaker 1: I feel like it is not gonna sniff that. So

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Speaker 1: I mean, can you do it for a full season.

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Speaker 1: We've seen him do it before. I have no real

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Speaker 1: issue with with Henry. I know he's not gonna get

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Speaker 1: a lot of pass game usage. But I mean the

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Speaker 1: Titans are really gonna have to lean on him this year.

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Speaker 1: They they traded AJ Brown and they got some you know,

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Speaker 1: working in essentially a whole new receiving core. What do

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Speaker 1: you think they're gonna do. They're just gonna hand it

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Speaker 1: to Henry over and over.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, He's still the Derrick Henry we know and love.

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Speaker 2: And I've kind of made it a point to be

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Speaker 2: higher on Derek Henry than ADP ever since the DeMarco

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Speaker 2: Murray days. But this year I'm right in line. And

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Speaker 2: one of the things that Derrick Henry always knew he

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Speaker 2: had a high floor. He was a safe high floor play.

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Speaker 2: There is some concern now, I mean, he's what twenty

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Speaker 2: eight years old now, so in this day and age,

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Speaker 2: that's really tough to expect a guy to continue having

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Speaker 2: this massive workload and be efficient. I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: he's still going to see a massive workload. Without AJ

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Speaker 2: Brown there, They're going to have to run the ball

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Speaker 2: just as much, if not more than before. I do

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Speaker 2: worry that, you know, not having AJ Brown there is

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Speaker 2: going to take away from some of the suspense that

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Speaker 2: they might throw a deep or something so teams can

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Speaker 2: probably key in on Derrick Henry and slow him down.

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Speaker 2: And last year we did finally start to see him

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Speaker 2: decline a bit, and the yards per carre is four

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Speaker 2: point three. He only averaged zero point oh five you know,

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Speaker 2: expected yards over Kerry according to ex Gen's stats. So

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Speaker 2: we have start, we've seen a little bit of a decline,

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Speaker 2: but either way it's going to be offset with just

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Speaker 2: a massive volume. So I do still like him at

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Speaker 2: RB five, but just compared to last you know, the

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Speaker 2: last few seasons, he does have more concerns than reresed

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Speaker 2: to you. And I guess I jinxed it last year

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Speaker 2: by saying he's indestructible, and you know, I he's the

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Speaker 2: only player that's projecting for more than sixty game plays,

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Speaker 2: so that was probably my fault for finally jinxing him.

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Speaker 2: But he's still going to be very durable and last

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Speaker 2: year's injury is kind of a flute, so I'm still

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Speaker 2: okay taking him RB five.

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Speaker 1: Fun fact about Derrick Henry, Oh yeah, let me hear it.

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Speaker 1: If he averages less than twenty seven point four carris

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Speaker 1: per game this year, it'll be the first time in

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Speaker 1: his career he's ever gone down in carris per game

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Speaker 1: compared to the previous year seven point three eleven, thirteen

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Speaker 1: point four, twenty point two, twenty three point six, twenty

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Speaker 1: seven point four. And I feel like the Titans they

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Speaker 1: have to hand it to him even more. I mean,

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Speaker 1: defenses have always been keying in on him. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're right, you know, the age twenty seven is kind

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Speaker 1: of that peak age. You know. Now he'll be twenty

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Speaker 1: eight this year, but you know, again could be a

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Speaker 1: little fresher. Only only played those nine games last year,

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Speaker 1: eight plus the one in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: So nothing that matters with them. But he was on

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Speaker 2: pace to double his career high and receptions last year,

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Speaker 2: so it would be that's been the only flaw in

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Speaker 2: his game is his lack of receiving usage. But last

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Speaker 2: year he did, you know, he saw a spike and

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Speaker 2: passing work and receptions and things like that. So that'd

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Speaker 2: be interesting if they do phasing more in the receiving game,

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Speaker 2: that would help his fancy value even more. So that

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Speaker 2: that was interesting to see that last year he was

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Speaker 2: on pace the shatter crews high end reception yards and

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Speaker 2: well he didn't square a touchdown, but he never does

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Speaker 2: but either way, if his receiving uses spikes up, like

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Speaker 2: we haven't seen his ceiling yet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's scary.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, that would be scary.

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Speaker 1: No issues with the with Derrick Henry. I feel like

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Speaker 1: Naji Harris could be the new Derrick Henry though. I mean,

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Speaker 1: all we need is the efficiency because the usage, I

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Speaker 1: mean is a guy to challenge. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's probably between Taylor Henry and I would say Naji

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Speaker 1: Harris for that league lead and carries. You know, running backs,

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Speaker 1: we talk about this a lot when you're modeling running backs.

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Speaker 1: There's not gonna be a lot of variants from you know,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be around four yards per carry for most guys,

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Speaker 1: most guys, you know, do you think his efficiency can improve?

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Speaker 1: The only average three point nine yards per carry last

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Speaker 1: year and only six point three per reception book, I mean,

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Speaker 1: the usage was there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would I would expect the efficiency to only

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Speaker 2: improve because it was pretty bad last year. It's not

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Speaker 2: his fault. He suffered from poor offensive line play, and

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Speaker 2: unfortunately this offensive line will still be one of the

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Speaker 2: worst in the league. So we can't really project him

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Speaker 2: for Derrick Henry level efficiency, but certainly volume. I think

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Speaker 2: you made a good point, Like I think he's the

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Speaker 2: new Derrick Henry and he's Dereck Henry past catching upside.

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Speaker 2: You know, we can project them most weeks to get

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Speaker 2: three or four receptions, So he just has massive volume

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Speaker 2: upside and the efficiency if it were to go up,

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Speaker 2: that'd be a bonus. But either way, you're taking him

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Speaker 2: based on expected volumes. So I liked him at RB five,

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Speaker 2: right behind Derrek Henry.

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Speaker 1: You know, the pass game snaps are row is nice.

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Speaker 1: I think they could actually go down a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Big Ben was just checked down like a

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Speaker 1: checkdown machine, you know, last year. So I think you know,

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Speaker 1: they they drafted a couple of wide receivers, they got

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Speaker 1: Friar moot that tight end. Maybe they try to, you know,

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Speaker 1: give him a little breather with the with the pass

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Speaker 1: down snaps here and there. But either way, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I still think he can be kind of like a

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry volume in that neighborhood and he'll still catch

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Speaker 1: you know, more balls, way more balls than Derek Henry.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: I'm still comfortable with taking Naji Harris over pretty much

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Speaker 1: any wide receiver. But but but Cup and Jefferson. You know,

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Speaker 1: if I'm if I'm kind of in that middle, maybe

368
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Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, you know, I don't mind it, but Couping

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Speaker 1: Jefferson are probably only two guys I feel good about

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Speaker 1: taking over over Nagi and this this tier right here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, how about the Steelers talking about they were going

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Speaker 2: to lighten his volume a bit? Have you looked into

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Speaker 2: that a little bit more? Are they talking about actual

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Speaker 2: touches or playing time where they take him off the

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Speaker 2: field in situations where he's not even getting the ball.

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Speaker 1: So they specifically said kind of like they want to

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Speaker 1: take him off the field for snaps when he wouldn't

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Speaker 1: get touches. Yeah, okay, past you know, past blocking where

379
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Speaker 1: even better if you're off the field, like there's gonna

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Speaker 1: you're gonna probably he's gonna run up Like I would

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Speaker 1: bet he doesn't run What did you run like a

382
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Speaker 1: round on sixty six percent? Yeah, dropbacks, I would I'm

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Speaker 1: projecting that more in you know, round fifty five sixty yea,

384
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Speaker 1: I would bet he takes a little bit of a dip,

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Speaker 1: but I still think the carries will be there for him.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, that's that's kind of how he's projected. I

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Speaker 2: just want to fall up because I haven't heard any

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Speaker 2: details on that, but that's that's what I assumed at least.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm it's kind of the same same deal as

390
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Speaker 1: as as McCaffrey as Henry. It's like the Steelers need

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Speaker 1: to make this dude their centerpiece. Like it's, yeah, you

392
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Speaker 1: got through Bisky, you got Rudolph, you got Picket. You know,

393
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Speaker 1: a bunch of a couple of rookie wide receivers, I mean,

394
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Speaker 1: just a young squad all around and a bad offensive line.

395
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Speaker 1: So like they Najie Harris is gonna get fed. I

396
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Speaker 1: think the floor is very high and the ceiling is

397
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Speaker 1: just high because of the volume. Like you know, maybe

398
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Speaker 1: he gets lucky and gets a couple like bust a

399
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 1: ninety yard runner or two, and then you know, have

400
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 1: a whole different conversation. Dalvin Cook. Now this is why,

401
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:41,120
Speaker 1: like this this top tier of running backs again outside

402
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 1: of Cupp and Jefferson, I still feel good about him because,

403
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 1: I mean, Dalvin Cook slipping all the way to RB six,

404
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 1: I mean that's that that's pretty good. I mean, do

405
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 1: you think he's peaked at all? Or is he due

406
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 1: for some some positive touchdown progression. You only had six

407
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Speaker 1: ton two hundred and eighty three touches last year.

408
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Speaker 2: Yeah, he I mean he might have peaked. He's what

409
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 2: he's going to be twenty seven this year, so he's

410
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Speaker 2: probably on the tail end of his prime obviously, But

411
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Speaker 2: when you watched him last year, there was times he

412
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Speaker 2: still looked like one of the top backs in the league.

413
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Speaker 2: And he still is. So I still like him this year.

414
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Speaker 2: Like you said, I think RB six is a steal

415
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 2: for him, And yeah, I think we'll see some positive

416
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Speaker 2: touchdown regression. He saw fifteen rush attempts inside the five

417
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Speaker 2: last year and only scored on three of those. Typically

418
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Speaker 2: you'd expect the running back to score about six point

419
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 2: five touchdowns, so about three and a half touchdowns blow expectation.

420
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Speaker 2: You would expect an above average running back like Dalvin

421
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 2: Cook to actually be better than an average better than average.

422
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, we can absolutely expect some positive touchdown regression.

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Speaker 2: This offense might be better this year. They've been using

424
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Speaker 2: him more as like if they line them up as

425
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 2: a wide receiver, so if they're getting more involved in

426
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 2: the passing game. That was kind of my only concern

427
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 2: with them last year was his receiving usage seemed like

428
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 2: a dip the little bit, But if they're going to

429
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:02,200
Speaker 2: get it more of all in the past the game,

430
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Speaker 2: then yeah, he's going to be a steal at RB six.

431
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Speaker 2: He is one of those guys where you kind of

432
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 2: expect him to miss a few games every year. I

433
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: don't think he's played more than fourteen games in the season,

434
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,719
Speaker 2: but when he is on the field, he's certainly going

435
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 2: to be, you know, every week through a top five back.

436
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 2: So I think you you're getting quite a bit of

437
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 2: value on him at RB six this year.

438
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I you know, and I like, I really like this.

439
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 1: You know, the prospects for this offense with Kevin O'Connell, Like,

440
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 1: I don't think it can be understated. You know, just

441
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 1: how much Mike Zimmer like Mike Zimmer's kind of like

442
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: he Caroll in a way. You know, it's like a

443
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 1: coach who just has a certain mentality about how to

444
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 1: play the game that's not really conducive to fully opening

445
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 1: up the offense. So I think Dalvin Cook could really

446
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 1: benefit now. I mean, the defense is probably more worried

447
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 1: about Justin Jefferson than Dalvin Cook at this point. And

448
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 1: you know, Kirk Cousins has been playing well. And remember

449
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,640
Speaker 1: O'Connor's the dude who gave cam Akers banging them into

450
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 1: the wall twenty seven times with one game back from

451
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: an achilles injury. Yeah, like forty eight yards twenty four

452
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 1: carries in the playoffs against Tampa Bay of all teams too.

453
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: So like if he's doing that with cam Akers, I

454
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 1: feel like he has a lot in store for Davin Cook.

455
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 2: You know, I think the upside for the running back

456
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 2: in this offense, if you go back when Todd Gurley

457
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,160
Speaker 2: was really really good, that would sort of be his upside,

458
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 2: you know, really good pass catching back and you know,

459
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 2: goaling opportunities. So I would just look at Todd Gurley's

460
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 2: twenty seventeen twenty eighteen that range to see Dalvin Cook's

461
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 2: upside in this scheme.

462
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is you know, those six running backs,

463
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: Taylor Eckwer CMC, Henry, Harris, Cook, like I think all

464
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 1: have a great shot at being the top player in

465
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 1: Fantasy this year, you know, and obviously the top running back.

466
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 1: You know. So those are the guys that, you know,

467
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 1: if it's not a cup, if it's not a Justin

468
00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:00,119
Speaker 1: Jefferson probably gonna have one of those six guys if

469
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,119
Speaker 1: I'm taking in the top eight, if I'm drafting in

470
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: the top eight. It starts to get a little bit

471
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 1: diceier with Joe Mixing because we know he's just not

472
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 1: gonna you know, be a full full on passing you know,

473
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 1: three down back, Like they tried to use him last

474
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 1: year on more passing downs and it just didn't really

475
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: work out. And I mean, you know, we we kind

476
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: of we could joke around about it and it hurt,

477
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: you know, in the Super Bowl watching p Ryan getting ah,

478
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 1: you have to bring this up the three episodes, it's

479
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 1: like it's like the g O. P Ryan is our

480
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 1: new g Obernard. Absolutely, but I still think that that

481
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 1: is gonna be a little bit of a of a

482
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 1: limiting factor. So he's kind of just a very high

483
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 1: end uh two down back. But that's where it starts,

484
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 1: you know, feeling dicey, as in like, I don't know

485
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 1: if I feel like Joe Mixing has the same like

486
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 1: RB one overall potentials that I feel for those guys

487
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 1: in the top six, And you know I do feel

488
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 1: that way about Jamar Chase, you know, DeVante Adam, just

489
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 1: Travis KOSEI guys like that, So probably where I'm starting

490
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 1: to pivot away from running back if I'm staring at

491
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 1: mix In. But but what have you done when when

492
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 1: you're up and mix as a top player on the board.

493
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's certainly a tear drop at this point.

494
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 2: I still like Mixing. If you can get him at

495
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 2: the end of round one. If he falls that far,

496
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 2: go for it, because he's still a high floor play.

497
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 2: Everything you said is correct where he's limited as a receiver,

498
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 2: but that's fine. And this season, I think the improved

499
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 2: offensive line is gonna help Mixing out considerably. This Bengals

500
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 2: team's really good now, so we can expect more positive

501
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 2: game scripts which would help mix In. Just he's gonna

502
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 2: thrive in those kind of game scripts to begin with,

503
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 2: and he still has massive touchdown upside in this offense.

504
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,959
Speaker 2: So I think there's just based on Mixing's game, that

505
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 2: the team is shaping up really well for him this year,

506
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 2: and again that this off defensive line is gonna be

507
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 2: so much better this year, so his efficiency could go up,

508
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 2: his usage could go up, at least in rush attempts.

509
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 2: So despite the concerns on the receiving end.

510
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 1: I still like his floor yeah, and you know, his

511
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 1: carries per game have been so consistent, you know, between

512
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: pretty much sixteen and nineteen, even going back to the

513
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 1: last year with Marvin Lewis, you know, then two and

514
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 1: fourteen with Zach Taylor or Super Bowl with Zach Taylor,

515
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 1: the usage has always been pretty consistent. So he is

516
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: a very very high floor play there. You know, the

517
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 1: range of outcomes are are small, so I've never hate

518
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: on that, but just as a first round pick, it's

519
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 1: like it's not as exciting as those top six. I

520
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: think there's definitely a tear drop and definitely a spot

521
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: where you want to start thinking about wide receivers depending

522
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 1: on who's on the board. Running back eight. Here we go,

523
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: Here we go, Nick Chubb, it's time. I feel like,

524
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: I don't know, I feel like RB eight, don't I

525
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 1: don't want to hate. I hate getting on Nick job,

526
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 1: but I feel like RB. It's a little high. I mean, yeah,

527
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 1: I know, right, Okay, I'm not crazy.

528
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 2: No, I'm not gonna get less. Okay, first of all,

529
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,479
Speaker 2: before we dive in, what do you have his yards

530
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 2: per carry out? Right?

531
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: Now? Go like high four? Still, I think I think

532
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: I'm still under five. Let me uh, let me double.

533
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 2: Chick pump it up to at least five, give me five.

534
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: Hey, you say that about Henry last year, and what

535
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: would happen?

536
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,199
Speaker 2: And I did say that about Henry. Yeah, I'm saying you.

537
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 1: Could have you could, oh yeah, but I mean he

538
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:37,640
Speaker 1: is He's another guy that's turned in twenty seven. He's

539
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 1: still got your boy Kareem Hunt there and like they

540
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: kind of lucked out that they were both hurt at

541
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: different times various points last year. So I again, high

542
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: floor guy, But can he finishes the RB one overall?

543
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 1: I don't see it.

544
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know. I think RB eight is way too

545
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 2: expensive for him. That would be if cream Hunt is

546
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 2: traded away, I would say, Nick, Chubb's ceiling is run

547
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 2: RB seven. When cream Hunt is out of the lineup,

548
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 2: I would project Chubb as the RB seven, So RB eight, like,

549
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 2: you're already closer to his ceiling. So given cream Hunt

550
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 2: is still there, yeah, like RB thirteen would sound about right.

551
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 2: And I have his yards procured at five point one

552
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,640
Speaker 2: this year, so I'm much closer to you. The offensive

553
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,719
Speaker 2: line should still be legit, but they did lose JC Tretder,

554
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 2: so that could hurt the line a bit. Nick Chubb's

555
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 2: getting older, so there's there's various factors where I think that,

556
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 2: you know, he could start to decline this year.

557
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 1: But yeah, very.

558
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: Limited in the you know, receiving game, so he doesn't

559
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 2: have that high of a ceiling. So yeah, RB eight

560
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 2: seems a little too high. This is when I'm definitely

561
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: attacking wide receiver or if like a Mark Andrews is

562
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 2: around as opposed to investing in Nick Chubb because I

563
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 2: rather get Cream Hunt way later, who offers a higher

564
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: ceiling than Nick Chubb. Even so, yeah, I'm even though

565
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 2: I love Nick Chubb, I think he's one of the

566
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 2: best peer runners in the league, I think RBA is

567
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 2: way too high for me right now.

568
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 1: Yeah I got him at yeah four point eight, but

569
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 1: he's my RB twelve, So I'm pretty much in line

570
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 1: with you know, you said thirteen. I think this is

571
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: this is whide receiver retterritory. Yep, you know, for me,

572
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 1: nothing against Chubb and I'm listen. I also should mention

573
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 1: looks like Deshaun Watson is gonna miss at least those

574
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: first six games of the year. They have a very

575
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: easy schedule, so he's a great you could draft him

576
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 1: and sell high and he might Actually, his ceiling might

577
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 1: be higher than RB seven for those first six weeks

578
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 1: with Jacobe Brissett, because they're probably just gonna run the

579
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 1: shit out of ball.

580
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, they've faced You mentioned the schedule. The first four

581
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 2: games are against the Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons. So yeah,

582
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 2: they can be a run heavy team and probably start

583
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 2: four and oh so yeah, I love the idea of maybe, well, again,

584
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 2: I'd rather draft a receiver this range. But if you

585
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 2: do end up with Nick Chubb, yeah, I would consider

586
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 2: trading him away after that amazing stretch because his value

587
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 2: will probably peak at that time. But I think this

588
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 2: cream Hunt situation, we'll see what happens. But I think

589
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 2: that his ADP is going up because of that. But again,

590
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 2: there's there's just not much more room to go up

591
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 2: at RB eight.

592
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean after those four games, I mean, before

593
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: you trade him away, check to see if the Chargers

594
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 1: run defense is still broken.

595
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that's true. That's probably another easy one.

596
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 1: They got a lot of talent on that team, but

597
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 1: you know, they have that kind of philosophy that yeah,

598
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: tends to give up the run even when they do

599
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: have Easton players, so you know, something something to keep

600
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: in mind if you if Chubb finds, you know, is

601
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 1: in your plans or you're higher on him than we are.

602
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: RB nine is DeAndre Swift, and now running backs starting

603
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: to get a little dicey. I love Swift, I mean

604
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: as a player, but you know, he's kind of like,

605
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: I mean, his usage profile actually it's not very different

606
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 1: from Ekward. So that's that's interesting. Like, you know, if

607
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: you can kind of figure out a way to get

608
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 1: a receiver up high and then somehow get gets Swift

609
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: you know, in the middle of the second. You know,

610
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 1: he doesn't always follow that far, but that's an interesting strategy.

611
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: I mean, the average eleven point six carriages per game

612
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: last year, he was on the field for about two

613
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 1: thirds of the passing down snaps, which is really high

614
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 1: for a running back. So I'm projecting him for similar

615
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 1: usage this year about eleven and a half carriages per game,

616
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 1: about sixty percent of the passing down snaps. But got

617
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: one of the NFL's best offensive lines this year. I mean,

618
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: I really don't see a weakness on that offensive line.

619
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: So if there's anybody that could, you know, do it

620
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 1: with a little bit, you know less, you know volume

621
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: than you'd expect that. I think DeAndre Swift is actually

622
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 1: in a good spot this year. I know we were

623
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 1: fading them on prize picks a ton last.

624
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 2: Year, but because he was hurt.

625
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, but I feel like his rushing crop

626
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: was always too high and then he had like like

627
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: a couple of big games and everything was under fifty yards.

628
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't know, I feel sooud about Swift

629
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: this year, but it just I'm not really excited to

630
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: draft a running back in this spot. What about you?

631
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 2: Yeah? No, I like the Austin Eckler comp. I think

632
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 2: that's very fair because obviously he has massive receiving upside

633
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 2: and they like using him around the goal line, so

634
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 2: that's all we really care about when it comes running back.

635
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 2: He hasn't really been able to stay healthy for a

636
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 2: full season, so I think he has top five upside

637
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 2: if he can stay healthy. And again, like he's healthy

638
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 2: going into the season, so I have no reason to

639
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 2: believe he won't stay healthy. And we were only attacking

640
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 2: his prost because he was playing through injury last year.

641
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 2: But yeah, I love him in this range. I think

642
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 2: that he does offer upside at least in this range,

643
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 2: and we're we're kind of high on this Lion's offense

644
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 2: as a hole. Yes, if they have guys going downfield

645
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 2: like DJ Chark or Jamison Williams like that, that might

646
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: actually open up things for Swift, for GoF to just

647
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 2: dump it off to him and there's less defenders around. Like,

648
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 2: I think Swift can thrive in either game score. He

649
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 2: had that one game where he had thirty three rush

650
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 2: attempts for one hundred and thirty yards, or he can

651
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 2: rack up ten plus catches. So I just love his

652
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 2: profile where, yeah, he doesn't really have any flaws in

653
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: his game other than he's not getting those carries on

654
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 2: their own thirty. So yeah, he's kind of like Austin

655
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 2: Eckler who you can get like sometimes in the second round.

656
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 2: So I do love where he's going.

657
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I love, you know, for a back like

658
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: this because I think that was the same thing you

659
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: know people, and I thought it was so silly people

660
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: used to say, like can Equer handle a workload and

661
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: like as dude as like one of the strongest dudes

662
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 1: in the league, Like if you didn't know, but I

663
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 1: look at that game the infamous tie game against the

664
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers, which was just a crazy game. Swift carried

665
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: about thirty three times in that game.

666
00:32:56,640 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 2: He has that upside for sure. He can handle.

667
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you know, I don't mind him there, especially,

668
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 1: Like I said, if you if you're up early in

669
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: the draft and maybe you want to go all in

670
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 1: on Cooper Cupper justin Jefferson, and then you're probably not

671
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 1: gonna get Swift coming around the other side. But maybe

672
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 1: if you're a little more towards the middle, you can

673
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 1: make it work with with with with the receiver and

674
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,959
Speaker 1: then Swift in the you know, early to mid second.

675
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 1: I think, you know this is it really starts to

676
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: get even diceier after Swift. I mean, RB ten, you

677
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 1: got Aaron Jones, and you know, I love Aaron Jones.

678
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 1: I feel like people wrote him off like two years

679
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 1: too soon. AJ Dillon was drafted and everyone thinks Aaron

680
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 1: Jones is on the outs. But it's still you have

681
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: to think about range of outcomes, right, Like there's still

682
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 1: a scenario where you draft Aaron Jones at RB ten

683
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: and he doesn't lead this team in touches like that,

684
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 1: Like that's not out of the question. I'm not I'm

685
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 1: saying he's I still think he's the favorite for touching

686
00:33:58,320 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 1: because I expect him to really ramp it up in

687
00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: the pass game with Green Bay losing DeVante Adams. But

688
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: I do think it's kind of dicey, and I'm looking

689
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 1: at our projections and you and I both have AJ

690
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 1: Dillon projected for a handful of more carries than Aaron Jones.

691
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: So that never makes you feel good this high at

692
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: running back.

693
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I could certainly make a case he should

694
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 2: be the tenth running back off the board, but this

695
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,879
Speaker 2: is where running bucks seem kind of fragile, where there

696
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 2: is some downside to taking this early. Again, this is

697
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: when you're still able to take one of those elite

698
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: wide receivers and then I kind of like taking AJ

699
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: Dillon a lot later, just kind of buying in on

700
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,760
Speaker 2: that anti fragility with AJ Dillon. But Aaron Jones, whenever

701
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 2: Devantae Adams has been out of the lineup, he's been insane, right, Like,

702
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 2: I think you put up top five numbers with devontep.

703
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 2: Granted I don't think AJ Dillen was on the team

704
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 2: for like half those games, but he's obviously going to

705
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 2: be more involved in the passing game. But this offense

706
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 2: itself is probably going to be more run heavy without

707
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 2: Davante all seasons, so and they're still probably going to

708
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 2: be a ten plus win team, super Bowl contenders. So

709
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna be a run heavy offense. And

710
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 2: similar to you, I have Ajdllen getting more carries. So

711
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 2: it's just it's hard to get too excited about Aaron

712
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 2: Jones at this RB ten spot. It feels closer to

713
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 2: the ceiling to me.

714
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 1: I actually have them ranked RB ten, but I have

715
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 1: Dylan ranked RB twenty and Dylan's going RB twenty six,

716
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 1: So the better value my rankings is Dylan, you know.

717
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: So it's not anything against Joanes to just kind of

718
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 1: I'd rather I still rather attack wide receiver or tight

719
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: end at this part of the draft, just because they're

720
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: you know, again, it's kind of like a little bit

721
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 1: with Eku at the top. Like things, the range of

722
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 1: outcomes is a little fradile here. As you said, yep, okay,

723
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 1: who we got a number eleven, Javonte Williams, And it's

724
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 1: kind of the same deal. Like talented guy, I should

725
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 1: you know, take a step forward in terms of his

726
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 1: usage and and his you know, split with Melvin Gordon

727
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 1: in year two. But Melvin Gordon's still on the team

728
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 1: and they you know, they've said, hey, he's still going

729
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: to be involved in in the offense. You know, maybe

730
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 1: he doesn't get two hundred plus carries again, but I

731
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 1: still think he's you know, he could you know, get

732
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 1: double digits most weeks. And so again, just not ideal

733
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 1: for you know, drafting a running back this high, like

734
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: you still kind of want those those like locked in workhorses.

735
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 1: You don't really want to committee back this high, especially when,

736
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 1: like you said, you could get those wide receiver ones

737
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: who you can't replace, like if Javonta Williams goes down

738
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon's and are you know a borderline RB one

739
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 1: while he's out, But you're not gonna be able to

740
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 1: replace the wide receivers that that you could pick in

741
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 1: this range. So nothing against Javonte, but I just not

742
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 1: not my favorite pick.

743
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 2: Uh here, Yeah, he's he's so interesting because RB eleven.

744
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: It is a bit risky because Melvin Gordon's there was

745
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 2: fun you know the first couple months of the offseason

746
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 2: when they didn't sign Melvin Gordon. I mean, I had

747
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 2: Javanti Williams as a top five back at that point.

748
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 2: Plus you know this is going to be a Russell

749
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:21,240
Speaker 2: Wilson that offense. There's gonna be more touchdowns to go around,

750
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 2: So I think the offense is gonna.

751
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:22,959
Speaker 1: Be a lot better.

752
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 2: But yeah, Melvin Gordon's still there. I think it's going

753
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 2: to be closer to a sixty forty split this year.

754
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 2: And Javanti was able to put up the RB seventeen

755
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 2: numbers last year in a true fifty to fifty split,

756
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 2: so I think that does represent closer to his floor.

757
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 2: And then if Melvin Gordon were ever to miss time,

758
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 2: I mean he has top five upside. We saw in

759
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 2: his one start last year without Gordon in the lineup,

760
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 2: he posted the RB one overall numbers that week in

761
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 2: Week thirteen, so we kind of got a taste of that.

762
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 2: So he he's a rare back in this range that

763
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 2: actually has upside if his backup gets hurt. Like if

764
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 2: you look at Alvin Kamara, doesn't really have upside if

765
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 2: mark Ingram gets hurt. Same thing with Bournette, Barkley, Montgomery.

766
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 2: So these kind of guys, they're kind of already at

767
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 2: their ceiling whereas Javante has more to go if Gordon

768
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 2: were to miss time or if just Javante just runs

769
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 2: away at the job this year, which is possible. So

770
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 2: I can get behind Javante at RB eleven. I just

771
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 2: wish he was going just a little bit later.

772
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's kind of a guy like when I'm drafting

773
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,760
Speaker 1: on basketball teams, like I want exposure to him. Yeah,

774
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: but you know, in a regular redraft league, I still

775
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: think I'd rather I feel more comfortable with the you know,

776
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 1: the wide receivers going, you know, going where he's at.

777
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: Uh Okay. The twelfth and final running back in the

778
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 1: top twelve, Alvin Camara. This is tough because, I mean

779
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 1: we expect him to get a six game suspension. We

780
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 1: don't know when it will be, So how are you

781
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 1: kind of factoring that into your rankings? I have him,

782
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 1: I have him outside the top twelve, So well, was

783
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 1: get I get the appeal. You know, it's Alvin Kamara.

784
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 1: He's nasty, but you know, six games is a lot.

785
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, So that we always say that we don't really

786
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,240
Speaker 2: want to take on risk this early in the draft,

787
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 2: So why would I do that. I'm very confident in

788
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 2: my ability to draft teams, so I can kind of

789
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:23,959
Speaker 2: make up value if I missed out on. If Alan

790
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 2: Kamara ends up playing all seventeen games, so be it.

791
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 2: He's not going to really be on many or any

792
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 2: of my teams. It's just at this point, just give

793
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 2: me a guy like Leonard Fournette who can actually provide

794
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: seventeen games of value if he stays healthy. So I'm

795
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 2: not a fan of taking on any kind of risk

796
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 2: like that early on where yeah, he could end up

797
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 2: missing six games later in the season. So I'm usually

798
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 2: shining away from players like that.

799
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, just some other names going around, Alvin Kamara,

800
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 1: Steedee Lamb, Deebo, Samuel Tyreek, kill Mark Andrews, and you

801
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 1: mentioned Winner fourt So when you factor in the six

802
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 1: miss games, I just I can't find a way to

803
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 1: get to to twelve. I can get I think I'm

804
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 1: at eighteen, you know I can. I can get there,

805
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 1: And even then, still not a fan of really just

806
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 1: kind of mortgaging, you know, six games worth of upside,

807
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 1: you know, for the off chance that maybe the suspension,

808
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 1: you know, it drags on and you know whatever. But

809
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: I just think same thing with DeAndre Howkins. I just don't.

810
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 1: I don't think people are properly accounting for you know,

811
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: the miss games because when you when you bug the

812
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 1: numbers in, that's a sizable chunk, and you know it's

813
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 1: it's not it's not just super easy to replace the

814
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: guy like Alvin Kamara, and it kind of throws I

815
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 1: think it kind of just throws off your whole draft

816
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: if you have to now chase chase the those six games.

817
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and with Hopkins, I agree with you, but at

818
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 2: least we know that's the first six games. That's the

819
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 2: easiest time to replace a player because you don't really

820
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 2: have many bye weeks. Everybody's healthy, so it's very easy,

821
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 2: or it's easier, I should say, to replace Hopkins. Whereas

822
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 2: Kamara his suspension could come. You know, on the Fantasy playoffs,

823
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 2: we don't know when the hell or if it's gonna come,

824
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,879
Speaker 2: and that's way more difficult for a place. So that's

825
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 2: why that you know, potential suspension is even worse. In

826
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 2: my opinion, we actually.

827
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 1: Have some extra time, so you know what, let's let's

828
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 1: keep going down the list. You know we can we

829
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 1: can knock out some more of these guys. Leonard Fournette

830
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 1: is up thirteenth, and I mean, I do want to

831
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 1: ask you. You know, he had the negative like training camp,

832
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 1: you know what the weight gain is, like the Eddie

833
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: Old Eddi Lacy kind of situation. Everyone's talking up for

834
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 1: shod White, but I don't know, I feel like they

835
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 1: like Burnette. I don't think they're just gonna give a

836
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 1: rookie back you know, a ton of snaps. Their offensive

837
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 1: line is already kind of banged up. You know they're

838
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 1: gonna need pass protection. But I'm with you. I would

839
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 1: draft him over Alvin Kamara every.

840
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 2: Time, absolutely, And I had a feeling this story of

841
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 2: you know, he's eating too many burgers would turn into

842
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,439
Speaker 2: a nothing burger because he had plenty of time to

843
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 2: take that weight off. Come on, I wouldn't be able

844
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 2: to do that, but I knew he would. And I said, like,

845
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 2: if anything, this is going to make his ADP drop

846
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 2: and make him even more of a great target. But

847
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 2: I mean, last year, when he was healthy, we were

848
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 2: both ranking him inside the top five every week, right,

849
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 2: Like his usage was insane. So yeah, if White sprinkles

850
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 2: in a little bit more on passing downs, you know,

851
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 2: so be I still think Lenny's going to be a

852
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:36,320
Speaker 2: low and RB one massive touchdown upside in this offense,

853
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 2: and Brady likes him. So I just think that, you know,

854
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 2: Lenny is sort of like a high floor, high ceiling

855
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,439
Speaker 2: target right before. I think that's when we really start

856
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 2: to get some question marks that RB fourteen to like

857
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 2: twenty range. I mean, I do like that most years.

858
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 2: That's what I call the frozen pine. So it's a

859
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 2: lot better than years pass, but certainly that's the range

860
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 2: where you can start really poking holes and guys and

861
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 2: Leonard Fournette, I can't poke any holes in this game

862
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 2: right now.

863
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, you got Barkley, Elliott Montgomery. You know,

864
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 1: I think you know there's the for Barkley and Elliott.

865
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 1: You know, people are just kind of down on them,

866
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 1: but they're still kind of floating around there. I mean,

867
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 1: but you could when it's all said and done. I

868
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:24,320
Speaker 1: just think once after you get past I would say Mixing,

869
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: maybe Chubb and like, there's just there's so many question

870
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 1: marks about all of these guys that I'd rather, you know,

871
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 1: to your point, kind of wait and take a guy

872
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 1: a little further down on that list, because you know,

873
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: Leonard Fournette could easily you know, I don't want to

874
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 1: say easily, but there's a very good possibility that a

875
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 1: guy like Lennard Fournette could outscore a guy like Aaron

876
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 1: Jones or a guy like DeAndre Swift or a guy

877
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 1: like Javonte Williams.

878
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 2: You know it.

879
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 1: It's they're all kind of in this this kind of tier.

880
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 1: It's not a frozen pond, but it's just it's a

881
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 1: tier where I feel comfortable waiting and getting someone near

882
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 1: the back end of it rather than reaching for a

883
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: guy in that you know, RB eight nine ten range. Yeah, absolutely,

884
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:10,760
Speaker 1: So do you think there's like where is the frozen

885
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 1: pond this year? Before we get out of here, Like

886
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 1: where do you see it?

887
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 2: That is a load of question. I mean, so last year,

888
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 2: so where like Zeke Akers, Montgomery Gibson, Dellan atn Breeze

889
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 2: Hall are going. Guys like Miles Gaskin, Mike Davis and

890
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 2: those we're going last year And obviously I was like,

891
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 2: those guys are the frozen pond. You know, I was

892
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 2: ranking them right there. I wasn't saying their rank is

893
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:39,879
Speaker 2: you know, ridiculous, but it's just like they have such

894
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:41,919
Speaker 2: a low floor. All of those guys in that range

895
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 2: that they just raled up, Like, I don't think they

896
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 2: have that low of a floor. So I think the

897
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 2: frozen pond would be like JK. Dobbins, Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards,

898
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 2: Hilaire a bit, but they're going late enough to where

899
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 2: you're not really gonna be in too much trouble if

900
00:44:57,920 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 2: they bust. But those are the guys that's sort of

901
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 2: that twenty four to twenty eight range. Maybe Miles Sanders,

902
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 2: but even then, like they're going so late now because

903
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 2: the RB two year is so strong this year that

904
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 2: I'm not really calling them frozen pond, but that's that's

905
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 2: kind of the range I would consider that label. Do

906
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 2: you think of like there's is there group this year

907
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 2: that you would label that?

908
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's kind of in that same range.

909
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:26,359
Speaker 1: You know, Edwards, you ware, you know, you just don't

910
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 1: quite know. I mean, we loved him a couple of

911
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 1: years ago. It's just kind of been going downhill. Yeah,

912
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 1: Devin's singletary, great year, great finish to the year. But yeah,

913
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,399
Speaker 1: I'm hearing noise about Zach Moss. We know they got

914
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:39,840
Speaker 1: the draft.

915
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cordio Patterson would be the ideal, like if he

916
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 2: was RB twenty, I would say he's frozen pond. But

917
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,800
Speaker 2: the market's so sharp this year that he's what is

918
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,319
Speaker 2: he like RB thirty two, which seems about right. So

919
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:55,799
Speaker 2: I just don't see any like red flags where typically

920
00:45:55,920 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 2: the ADP gave us some doozies, like last year Ronald

921
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 2: Zones being ranked a head of Leonard Fournette. I think

922
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 2: I was calling that out as much as possible. I

923
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 2: don't really see anything like that this year.

924
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 1: So if you missed out, let me ask you this then,

925
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,760
Speaker 1: if you missed out on one of those top six

926
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:16,359
Speaker 1: and how comfortable would you feel? And may let's say

927
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,840
Speaker 1: you mix that miss out on mixing as well, so

928
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: you miss out on those top seven backs, how comfortable

929
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 1: would you be essentially going for I mean, many would

930
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: kind of call it a zero RB, but you really

931
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 1: just kind of taking what the draft gives you. But like,

932
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:34,839
Speaker 1: how comfortable are you this year? Because I'm to your point,

933
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: running back is kind of deep where if you can

934
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 1: get like, you know, a wide receiver one and like

935
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 1: two wide receiver twos, Like I don't know if I

936
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 1: feel that worry taking maybe three shots at these you know,

937
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 1: those kind of lower tier running backs and just hoping

938
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 1: two of them two out of the three hit. Oh.

939
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,399
Speaker 2: Absolutely, that's that's when I would turn into zero RB.

940
00:46:57,520 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 2: That's why I don't subscribe to any of them. But

941
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 2: I'm very comfortable in that state. And I've had a

942
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 2: few drafts where I've done that, right, Like I get

943
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 2: Dylan cream Hunt and Tony Poller is my top three,

944
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,800
Speaker 2: and then I'm loading up on the backup running backs.

945
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:15,400
Speaker 2: But you're just taking as many shots as possible. I

946
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 2: would abst toly do that. There has been some times

947
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 2: where like a Zeke Elliott or David Montgomery fall to

948
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 2: RB twenty five and I'm like, all right, you know

949
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 2: this is ridiculous, I'll take them there. But I am

950
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:29,359
Speaker 2: absolutely okay just punting it through that you know, RB

951
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 2: fourteen to RB twenty two range, if you know needed,

952
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 2: and if again, like if none of these guys fall

953
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 2: like way too low. But yeah, I'm very confident in

954
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 2: my ability just target these high upside running backs. Just

955
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:47,319
Speaker 2: looking at my running back upside chart, you can kind

956
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 2: of copy what I'm doing, but I like to get

957
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 2: target those like A plus to B plus players sort

958
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 2: in the middle of the later rounds.

959
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I totally agree. All right, that's gonna do

960
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 1: it for us on this episode of the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

961
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 1: You can find Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker.

962
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 1: You can find me at Chris Raybon. You can find

963
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,320
Speaker 1: us at those same handles on a free award winning

964
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 1: Action Network app. Make sure you stay tuned for our

965
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: next episode. We'll have Jake Seely to talk running backs

966
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 1: and you know, maybe some Frozen Pond, maybe some not prozebon.

967
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 1: I don't know. You know, it's gonna be exciting because

968
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot to choose from out of

969
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: that you know, running back twelve, thirteen and on. So

970
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,439
Speaker 1: stay tuned for that. Action Network dot com is where

971
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 1: you can find our projections, rankings, Shawn's Upside, running back piece,

972
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 1: and all that good stuff. So until next time, let's

973
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 1: get this sh money.