1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: The volume The Colin Cowherd Podcast, brought to you by 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. Whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: fantasy sport, there is a contest for every fan. Fan 5 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: Duel more ways to win. Hi, everybody, welcome in Friday morning. 6 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 1: We're gonna be doing this now for the next nineteen 7 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 1: twenty weeks. I bring in Chad Millman and we go 8 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 1: over my favorite eight bets of the week, and he 9 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 1: tells me if I'm a sharp or a square. But 10 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: first it's time for fake questions, real answers. There's stuff 11 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: I want to talk about. I don't want to wait 12 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 1: for you to ask me fake questions, real answers. Here 13 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: we go, Dear Colin. After a sloppy play in Week one, 14 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: a lot of people are saying starters need to play 15 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: more in the preseason. Don't you think they're getting a 16 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 1: tad carried away? Great question, Yes I do. Football teams 17 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: have never been refined. In September, Andy Reid, Sean McVay, 18 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: Matt Naggie. Offensive coaches. They spend offseason scheming new plays. 19 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: So I do think offensive coaches have an advantage over 20 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 1: defensive coaches in September. Defenses are rarely in great form early. 21 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: There's a longtime baseball saying an opening day pitchers are 22 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 1: ahead of hitters. The belief is that hitters perform worse 23 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: at the beginning of the season, therefore pitchers perform better 24 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: at the beginning of the season. Last week, the biggest 25 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: numbers were put up by the Saints, Sean Payton, Cardinals, 26 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury, Eagles, Nick Siani, Niners, Kyle Shanahan, Rams, Sean McVay. 27 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: September is for offensive coaches. Consider that when gambling, dear Colin, 28 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: a team needs a quarterback right now, who's a backup 29 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: or unsigned? Who is the first guy you'd call? Another 30 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: terrific question. He's not high profile like Cam Newton, he 31 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: doesn't have endorsements. But it's remarkable to me how we 32 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 1: always forget about Nick Foles, who outdueled Tom Brady a 33 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, who has a career record over five hundred. 34 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: In fact, with Philadelphia, when he had decent offensive line 35 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: protection and a smart offensive coach, he was twenty one 36 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: and eleven and a passer rating above ninety three. He's 37 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 1: played in six playoff games, He's won four eleven tds, 38 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: five picks in a ninety nine passer rating. Nick Foles 39 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: has always been as good is his surrounding, protection and coaching. 40 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: Nick Foles, I'm not building my franchise around him. My 41 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: argument is he's absolutely and has been for the last 42 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: several years, the best backup quarterback in the NFL. Dear Colin, 43 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 1: you're plugged into USC. Why did they wait until the 44 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 1: season started to fire Clay Helton? Why didn't they do 45 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 1: it months ago, even years ago? Well, Lynn Swann gave 46 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 1: Clay Helton an extension, so the current athletic director, Mike Bone, 47 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: inherited along Clay Hilton contract. USC was going through some 48 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: ugly financial payouts. They didn't want to write a check 49 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: for twenty million dollars for a new guy and fifteen 50 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: million dollars for Clay Helton. Ideally Clay would have been 51 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 1: strong enough to get through this season, then they would 52 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 1: have written him about a five million dollar check. Instead, 53 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: they had to write him one closer to twelve. The 54 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: reality with Clay Helton is at Mike Bone, the current 55 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: athletic director, was never a huge fan. He surrounded him 56 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: with elite recruiters hoping that if he had to get 57 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: rid of Clay Helton, the next coach would inherit a 58 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: team and a roster capable of winning the Pack twelve. 59 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: I believe that is true. The cupboard is not bare. 60 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: Mike Bone deserves credit he two years ago realized Clay Helton, 61 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 1: who he inherited, was not perfect. He also realized very quickly, 62 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: if I put money into the staff, make it younger, 63 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: very good at recruiting, the next coach has a chance 64 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: to take over the team and win immediately. And I 65 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: believe if US gets it right with the coach, they'll 66 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: be favored next year in the conference. Dear Colin, which 67 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: team and fan base is the most frustrating to you 68 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: in all of sports? That's the best question. Yet it's 69 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 1: the United States men's national soccer team. Every time something 70 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: goes wrong, they blame the coach. In other sports, we 71 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 1: know inherently the coach can't control everything. Bill Belichick is 72 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: struggling to win as the greatest football coach ever without 73 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: Tom Brady. Greg Popovitch is largely considered the best strategist 74 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: in the last fifteen years in the NBA. He now 75 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 1: can't win without Tim Duncan, a coach, it's understood, is 76 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,280 Speaker 1: only as good as his players really think. Last year, 77 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: Dave Roberts was the best manager in baseball. But for 78 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: some reason, soccer fans keep blaming Greg Berhalter for everything. Folks, 79 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: the world's best soccer coach, whoever that may be, would 80 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: not get us to the final four in the World Cup. 81 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 1: This team has more offensive talent except midfield than any 82 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: team we potentially ever had. But we don't have Brazil, Argentina, Germany, England. 83 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: We don't have that level of talent. Every other fan 84 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: base realizes even great coaches have absolute limitations. Belichick Popovich 85 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 1: based on talent. All right, here he is Chad Millman, 86 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 1: Chief content Officer of the Action Network. Now, on this 87 00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 1: show last week, Chad and I got the Steelers in Carolina, right, 88 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: we both missed on the Bears, the Chiefs Washington. He 89 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: did like he did take the Texans, so he gets 90 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:17,559 Speaker 1: a bonus for that. I said I should have taken 91 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: the Seahawks. I think I should get a bonus for that. 92 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: But overall we were both kind of three and five 93 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: on this show. So all right, So the way this 94 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 1: thing works, can I get a super bonus for saying 95 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: you should be parling teams like the Texans and the Steelers, 96 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: or because I did that and it turned out to 97 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 1: be quite profitable. Oh all right, go ahead, thank you, 98 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: thank you. All right, but everything here is it's archived, 99 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 1: so there's no belogne here, no no uh knuckleballs. This 100 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: is your will be a power pitcher in this game. 101 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: I feel like life is about being judged, and if 102 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: you are not comfortable with your record, then don't do 103 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 1: something publicly. But you and I, we both have massive egos. 104 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 1: Is important for us to share what we know and 105 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 1: then to be praised and hopefully people will forget when 106 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 1: we don't do as well as we should. So every 107 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: week I'm going to bring eight games, and from this eight, 108 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 1: I'm gonna pick five. And the way this game works 109 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: is I give you my take on it, and you say, 110 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: sharper square and then give me what you would do. 111 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: So let's start with this. I like the Chargers. It's 112 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: now minus three and a half. I like them before, 113 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: I like them more now without DeMarcus Lawrence, easily the 114 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 1: best Cowboy defensive player. Is that the fact that the 115 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 1: Washington defense really got no pressure on Justin Herbert, and 116 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: now the Cowboys bringing a defense or front without their 117 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: best player tells me that Justin Herbert at home is 118 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: going to have a lot of time to throw the football. 119 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 1: He was remarkable on third down last week, bizarrely good 120 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: seventy four percent against the Washington defense, and it should 121 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: be noted a defensive leaning staff that had more than 122 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: a week to prepare for them. Dallas has a more 123 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: offensive minded staff. I'm going to take the Chargers preferably 124 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: at minus three, but even if it's minus three and 125 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: a half, sharper square. So the Chargers are a sharp play. 126 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,199 Speaker 1: But they were a sharp play when this game opened 127 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: at two and a half, yes, and now it was 128 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:38,319 Speaker 1: bet up to three. It was bet up to three 129 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: and a half. At three and a half is not 130 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: a sharp play anymore. It's just decide that everybody is playing, 131 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: and they've been playing it more aggressively. Since the news 132 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: about about the defensive lineman whose name I just forgot, 133 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 1: DeMarcus Lawrence, I think, yeah, DeMarcus Lawrence. And since the 134 00:08:56,679 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 1: news about him came out, Michael Gallup not playing. There 135 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 1: have been some injuries on that team in the span 136 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 1: of the twenty four to forty eight hours just in 137 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 1: the last couple of days. That's why it's no longer 138 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 1: a sharp side at three and a half. Personally, I'm 139 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: not going to play it anymore because there's an old 140 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,200 Speaker 1: axium in betting, get the best of the number, and 141 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: oftentimes if you like the side but the number has 142 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: moved so far, especially over a key number like three, 143 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: and you missed it, you don't bet it because then 144 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:27,680 Speaker 1: that's going to come back to bite you in the 145 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 1: long run. So I like the Chargers in this game, 146 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: I won't bet it because I don't like I don't 147 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: like the number anymore. Interesting game I feel strongly about. 148 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: I don't like favorites. Generally, I would take the Steelers 149 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: minus five hosting the Raiders. Raiders on a short week, 150 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 1: I really think what Pittsburgh was able to do, which 151 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:57,079 Speaker 1: was completely unravel a more than capable Buffalo offense at home. 152 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: We forget the Steelers were a defensive unit last year 153 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,560 Speaker 1: until they fell apart. We were reminded in opening week 154 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 1: at Buffalo just how dominant and relentless they are. Raiders 155 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 1: in a short week. I don't even know if they're 156 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: particularly well coached. I feel like there are two person 157 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: offense with Derek Carr and Waller, the Steelers were able 158 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: to buy committee shut down Stefon Diggs. I would take 159 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 1: the Steelers a favorite to cover here sharp or dull sharp, 160 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: very sharp right side. The defense is fierce, no doubt 161 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 1: about it. But it was interesting about that Bill's game, 162 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: and you and I both liked the Steelers. You and 163 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 1: I both liked the Steelers to win in that game. 164 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger in the second half of that game. They 165 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 1: had a lot of troubles in the first half of offense. 166 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 1: In the second half of that game, he played like 167 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:56,959 Speaker 1: a savvy veteran and when they needed to have plays 168 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 1: made third downs, you weren't worried that Roethlisberger was going 169 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 1: to turn the ball over. And that's how they won 170 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 1: the game. They were methodical, they got the right plays, 171 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: they had the right turnover from special teams. I thought 172 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 1: they were just incredibly really well coached in that game. 173 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: Great spot for Mike Tomlin that last week. That's the 174 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: only thing that scares me out this week is Mike 175 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: Tomlin is amazing when he's got a row out his team. 176 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 1: He's less amazing when his team is favored and they're 177 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: supposed to win. But I do think this is the 178 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: right side. I'm gonna throw one at you and I 179 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: don't even know how I feel, but I'm just going 180 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: to give you my acumen here. So New England led 181 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 1: the NFL last weekend with Mac Jones in a particularly 182 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: captivating stat they averaged nine plays a drive and over 183 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,599 Speaker 1: four minutes. Now why does that matter? Because it was 184 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: against Brian Flores, Matt Jones's numbers and Flores had more 185 00:11:56,960 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: than one week to prepare. Last year, Flores Mahomes through 186 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: three picks Jared Gough unraveled. Mac Jones can puted seventy 187 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: four percent of his throws, one sack, no turnovers in 188 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:12,319 Speaker 1: a passer writing over one hundred. If you go back 189 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:16,959 Speaker 1: to what Flores did to quarterbacks last year, he ate 190 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 1: them alive. His numbers max in his first start were 191 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: significantly better than quarterbacks last year. So that's the first 192 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 1: part of this. They outplayed Miami and lost, So I 193 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 1: find a team that lost people are down on there's 194 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: value in New England. Secondly, the Jets, this is inarguable, 195 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: could not run the football against Carolina, meaning they will 196 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: be more influenced and quarterback centric. Oh that's a shame, 197 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 1: because Belichick has the best record against quarterbacks under twenty 198 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: five in NFL history. I know the number six. If 199 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,080 Speaker 1: it was seven night, stay away, but I have that 200 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: are swallowing the six and taking New England sharp or square? Well, 201 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: it's square because you're betting a big number on a 202 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 1: rookie quarterback on the road, and the only things that 203 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: make it acceptable are the fact that it is Bill 204 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: Belichick and he is the one who is the exception 205 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: to every single rule. Okay, I will be on the 206 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,719 Speaker 1: Jets in this game. I think the line is inflated 207 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 1: because people are coming away from that game against Miami 208 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,719 Speaker 1: with the same impression that you have. Mac Jones was 209 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: good on third down. He controlled the ball, he didn't 210 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: turn it over, he was preternaturally mature, all those things. 211 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: I don't like the number. So I'll be on the Jets, 212 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: all right. So fine, that's how you see it. It's 213 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 1: not the sharp side by any means. All Right. The 214 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 1: NFL is back in FanDuel Sports Book wants you to 215 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: get the most out of every PA. 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Okay, 243 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw a night. Yeah, you talk me out 244 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 1: of betting the Seahawks last week? Did I? Yeah? I 245 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: think I did. No, No, I think I did. That's right, 246 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: that's right. So I have a rule that well coached 247 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: teams that are good, not bad teams, but capable. Well 248 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 1: coached teams when they play poorly or are humiliated, always 249 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 1: bounced back. The Colts not only lost, they were pushed 250 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: all over the field. The Rams are a good team. 251 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: This is efforts first road game. They're feeling very good 252 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 1: about themselves. The number was four, it's now three and 253 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: a half. I would take a well coached, talented team 254 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: and the points if it's over three against the Rams, 255 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: who we all now love, they're a little overvalued. It 256 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: was the Bears Sharper square. It is so sharp. I 257 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 1: feel like I'm watching a Ronco commercial and you are 258 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 1: selling me knives. That is how sharp it is. This 259 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 1: is exactly the side you want to be in. I 260 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: love this game. I love the Colts in this game. 261 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 1: I betted at four. I think three and a half 262 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 1: is still good. There's a stat home underdogs coming off 263 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 1: of a loss since two thousand and five. In Week two, 264 00:16:55,480 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 1: home dogs sixty three against the spread when the spread 265 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: is six or less. The Colts fit directly into that system. 266 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 1: That is a nice size data set. And agree with 267 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:17,199 Speaker 1: everything you said. This is one where the market meets 268 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 1: the analysis meets the analysis on the field, right, And 269 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: so for me, that's one sharp play. All right, here's 270 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: another one. Gone back and forth on this, and I 271 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: like data. So I'm gonna go. Panthers plus three and 272 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 1: a half hosting the Saints. I was on the other 273 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 1: side of this, and I got a little birdie inside 274 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:46,200 Speaker 1: the Carolina, little little insight. Carolina went into that game 275 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: against the Jets feeling they were the better side. New 276 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 1: coach rookie quarterback. It was a fairly conservative game plan 277 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: by Matt Rule. Darn Old. Week one gat him confidence. 278 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 1: The Saints meet while are not nearly as good as 279 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 1: everybody thinks. Today they faced a northern team in Jacksonville Heat, 280 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: which had a distracting offseason. We like the Saints and 281 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 1: they do have a good defensive front, but Carolina is 282 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 1: more than capable offensively. They're getting more than a field goal. 283 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: I think is the season progresses and Sam Darnold, remember 284 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 1: he did not play much in the preseason. This was 285 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: the first time live bullets. I think they open up 286 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: the offense. It's too many points. This is a big 287 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: divisional game. I'm taking Carolina plus three and a half. 288 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 1: So look, yeah, I love the Panthers. This is the 289 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,639 Speaker 1: sharp side. Three things I want to say. One, I 290 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 1: love the Panthers last week against the Jets when the 291 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: number was at four because I'm really impressed with Matt Rule. 292 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 1: I think that defense is getting better. Two. You called 293 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,439 Speaker 1: me yesterday we were talking a little bit about some games. 294 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 1: You were telling me how much you like the Saints, 295 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: and I said to you, I do not like this. 296 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,919 Speaker 1: And I was thinking all night last night because I 297 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 1: like to think a lot about coming on the show. 298 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:09,920 Speaker 1: I want to prep I want to be ready. I 299 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: want to visualize how am I going to respond to 300 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: you on the Saints And I've been researching this game 301 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:21,679 Speaker 1: all day. Jamis Winston fourteen and one against the spread 302 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:26,880 Speaker 1: as a favorite on the field zone looks bother Jamis Winston. 303 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:31,119 Speaker 1: That's what Carolina is going to do. Marshawn Lattimore not playing, 304 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: that's a huge hit for the Saints defense. This game 305 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 1: had been lined, so if we were looking at this 306 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 1: game prior to this past weekend, it would have been 307 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 1: Saints minus two. Now all of a sudden, it's it's 308 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: Saints minus four and they're traveling after coming off of 309 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 1: a huge blowout. That is way too much of a reaction, 310 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: too much inflation on a point spread. So I think 311 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: you're one hundred percent playing the right side in this. 312 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: Here's another one. Thank you. They're It's a quality to 313 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:05,639 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow Chad Millman that I like in people is 314 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: that I am a believer that life is not about action. 315 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 1: I got up this morning, I shower, I get a coffee, 316 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:17,479 Speaker 1: I drive to work. Action. My life is largely driven 317 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 1: by my ability to react to having to get a vaccine. 318 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 1: My wife is mad at me by Moss's demanding that 319 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: how you handle reaction, how you react to action is overwhelmed. 320 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: The actions the easy part for all of us. It's 321 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 1: almost it's habitual. We do things. A lot of our 322 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: day to day lives are very habitual. It's easy. It's 323 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:45,199 Speaker 1: reacting that matters. Joe Burrow has a really excellent quality 324 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 1: that Burrow throws remarkably well under duress. His numbers when pressured, 325 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 1: when hit, when sacked, his accuracy does not dip substantially. 326 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 1: This is a very good sign. He's comfortable with pressure. 327 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 1: He's comfortable in a muddy pocket. He is comfortable after sacks. 328 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 1: He is comfortable in that chaos. The Bears don't have 329 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: the pass rush they've had in previous years. I'm going 330 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 1: to take the Bengals to beat the Bears straight out. 331 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 1: I don't think the Bears locker room is great. I 332 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 1: like Cincinnati to upset the Bears plus one and a 333 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:26,879 Speaker 1: half Bengals. I love your action reaction theory one hundred 334 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 1: percent agree. You could argue that what we do when 335 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 1: re react is when we are human, because that is 336 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: just pure instinct. I'm responding it's in front of me. 337 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 1: I don't have time to think about it. I don't 338 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 1: have time to plan for it. I don't have time 339 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 1: to strategize. Love your take on that, hate your take 340 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 1: on the Bears and the Bengals. Completely disagree. I thought 341 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: the Bears played much much better than the score indicated 342 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: against the Rams, and they ran the ball very, very 343 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: well against a good running defense. Three plays mattered in 344 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 1: that game against the Bears defense, three plays in which 345 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford threw over the top. The Bears had defensive breakdowns. 346 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: That's what led to the Rams winning that game. The Bengals, 347 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 1: I agree with Joe Burrow, better quarterback, probably better locker 348 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 1: room right now, But the Bears at home with the 349 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 1: line moving in the Bengals direction. I don't want to 350 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 1: be on the side of the public underdog. I don't 351 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 1: want to be on the side of the team that 352 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: by the time this game gets kicks off, they could 353 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: be favored. That to me screams take the other side. 354 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 1: So for reasons both on the field and because of 355 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: what the market is doing and what the public feels, 356 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,399 Speaker 1: I will be on the Bears, and I will be 357 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 1: on the Bears to win. I disagree with your assessment 358 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 1: of the line, of the spread, and of the Bengals 359 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 1: chances to win the game. All right, here's another one. 360 00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 1: Rarely is a top team undervalued, but the Chiefs because 361 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: Mahomes became a spectator in the first half. We're pretty unimpressive. 362 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:13,439 Speaker 1: But Frank Clark and Honey Badger didn't play against the 363 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 1: NFL's best rushing attack and highest graded offensive line. The 364 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,119 Speaker 1: Chiefs are actually undervalued here, and I only have to 365 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 1: swallow three and a half. Ravens are on a short week. 366 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:29,919 Speaker 1: They're still using backups at running back. I like Kansas 367 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 1: City here to beat Baltimore by a touchdown. What do 368 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:38,479 Speaker 1: you think sharp or square? I think it's pretty square. 369 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 1: It's decide that everybody will want to take. Betting is 370 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 1: about doing hard things. The hard thing is to take 371 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 1: the Ravens as a home dog, getting the extra half 372 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: a point, getting the hook at three and a half. 373 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,199 Speaker 1: It's hard to take the Ravens when they're off of 374 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: a hard loss, when they're traveling at home, when they're injured. 375 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 1: But it's the sharp side. I mean, you're gonna take 376 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 1: a home dog in this spot. And while you talk 377 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 1: about what the Chiefs were missing defensively, the Browns played 378 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,439 Speaker 1: really really well against the Chiefs, and the Ravens have 379 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 1: a better defense than the Browns, and so I did 380 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 1: see some vulnerability on the field for the Chiefs. But 381 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,400 Speaker 1: mostly the sharp side is the Ravens in the hook, 382 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,600 Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw one at you. Sorry, Yeah, it's okay, 383 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: this is exploratory. This is you know, I told you 384 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,159 Speaker 1: I love the Steelers this week. I loved the Colts, 385 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 1: the Steelers and the Panthers. Everything else is negotiable. That's 386 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 1: why we do this. Okay, I'm with you on all 387 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: three of those. Okay, are those are my strongest plays? 388 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 1: Eagles plus three and a half? Yeah, against hosting the Niners. 389 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: Now it's telling me to take the Eagles. And I 390 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,840 Speaker 1: thought Jimmy Garoppolo said something interesting this week on can 391 00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:59,880 Speaker 1: Be Are the most popular radio station in the bar, 392 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 1: and knowing that Kyle Shanahan would hear it, is that 393 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: he said, I'm making the best of it when asked 394 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:14,479 Speaker 1: about coming in and out of the football game. Making 395 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,760 Speaker 1: the most of it is what you say when you 396 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,280 Speaker 1: go on vacation and the hotel and the airline screwed you. 397 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 1: You're making the most of the vacation. It's what you 398 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: said in the past year with the COVID when your 399 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 1: kids had to homeschool and zoom school. We're making the 400 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: most of it. Jimmy Garoppolo is not happy, and Trey 401 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: Lance is not ready to play in that division. I 402 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: believe Garoppolo is better than people think and has more 403 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 1: leverage than people think. And I wonder if he and 404 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 1: the people who are his allies in that locker room. 405 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 1: He definitely has lots of allies in that locker room 406 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 1: are terribly happy with Kyle Shanahan. So whereas I think 407 00:25:56,600 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 1: Nick Serriani was making players cry last week reportedly in 408 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 1: the pregame speech, they're all in on this young coach, 409 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 1: as bad as he may be at the podium. So 410 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,120 Speaker 1: the play is probably Eagles plus three and a half 411 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 1: because it's telling me to play that. So I know 412 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 1: what it's telling me to play. Tell me the side 413 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 1: you're on and why you believe strongly in the side 414 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 1: you're on A hundred percent, believe strongly in the Eagles 415 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:29,679 Speaker 1: plus three and a half Philly's defense. Philly is a 416 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,880 Speaker 1: team I think was primed to make the biggest leap 417 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: of the year. Their defensive line, as we saw this weekend, 418 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,960 Speaker 1: is the strength of their team. The other strength is 419 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,199 Speaker 1: the offensive line. They win in the trenches, and I 420 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 1: know that's where San Francisco likes to win two. But 421 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 1: if you give me a team that can be so 422 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,960 Speaker 1: physically overpowering at home as a three and a half 423 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 1: point favorite, that is always going to be the side 424 00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 1: to take. And while the Lions came back and made 425 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: it a close game and for a lot of people 426 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 1: ended up backdooring on the spread against the Niners, the 427 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 1: Niners were winning that game handily. And that's what fans 428 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,199 Speaker 1: are going to see. They're going to see that they 429 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 1: scored forty one on the Lions, and that's what carries over. 430 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 1: That's why the number is even inflated as it is. 431 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,439 Speaker 1: So give me the Eagles plus three and a half. Also, 432 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:28,920 Speaker 1: there is some practicality here. The cornerback situation for the 433 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 1: Niners is not great. It's not and so they're depleted 434 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 1: in addition to whatever locker room turmoil there is. And 435 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 1: if you break it down, Jimmy Garoppolo is good, but 436 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 1: he had moments in that Lions game. It didn't go 437 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: as well as they should have, and so I'm all 438 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,879 Speaker 1: over the Eagles at plus three and a half. By 439 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 1: the way, emerging young receivers Philadelphia. The Niners lost their 440 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 1: first or second best corner verat so yeah, that's another 441 00:27:55,760 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 1: reason to take Philadelphia. Here's one bill, very good team, 442 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 1: sloppy Week one, swallowing three and a half at Miami 443 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,439 Speaker 1: Dolphins plus three and a half. The number is telling 444 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,720 Speaker 1: me to take Miami. My instincts are telling me that 445 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,960 Speaker 1: Buffalo will bounce back, but the number is saying Miami. 446 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,919 Speaker 1: So explain the side you're on to our audience, because 447 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 1: you are the square and I am vulnerable for going 448 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: with my gut. I'm a little like George Bush, the President. 449 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,239 Speaker 1: I don't read the pamphlets. I kind of go with 450 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: my gut too much. Yeah, the gut should tell you 451 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,920 Speaker 1: that you want to take Miami. Well, no, my gut 452 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: tells me Buffalo, but the number tells me Miami. If 453 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 1: you were a sharp, the gut would tell you take Miami. 454 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 1: Because it's a little the line is a little bit off. Essentially, 455 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 1: the bookmakers would line this at three, right. The handicappers, 456 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 1: the professional betters. The wise guys, they would say bills 457 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 1: minus three. It's three and a half if you're getting 458 00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,560 Speaker 1: that half a point off of a key number three, 459 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 1: sometimes four, seven, ten. Those are the key numbers that's 460 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,640 Speaker 1: that would games land on. If you think that a 461 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 1: game is line to three and you can get the 462 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,120 Speaker 1: half point, you take the half point, you take the 463 00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 1: team that is at home as an underdog at three 464 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 1: and a half. Here's something else that's interesting that's come 465 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 1: up a lot on the Favorites, which is the podcast 466 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 1: that I do with professional better Simon Hunter for the 467 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: Volume podcast network. What's been interesting is how the legal 468 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 1: betting markets and the money coming in and how people 469 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 1: bet is impacting the point spreads because there's a lot 470 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:37,680 Speaker 1: more money coming in that is casual betters that are 471 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,959 Speaker 1: new to betting, and they are betting on public teams 472 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 1: who are popular, and so it's giving the underdogs bigger 473 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 1: spreads than they would normally have. Last week underdogs when 474 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 1: twelve and four underdogs won nine of sixteen games outright. 475 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 1: So you're talking about an opportunity in which most time 476 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 1: the sharp side is going to be the underdog side 477 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,920 Speaker 1: because bookmakers are inflating the lines because they know they're 478 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 1: going to get a lot of public money coming in 479 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: on the favorite. I want to throw one more at you. 480 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 1: I feel like I'm in a very giving mood, you 481 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 1: know what I think. As I age, I'm more of 482 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 1: a giver than a taker. So I'm going to give 483 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 1: America this one. So the Buccaneers won, but actually played 484 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 1: very poorly. They had penalties, they had four turnovers. They're 485 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 1: minus twelve and I never bet those numbers. But the Falcons, 486 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 1: and this is disturbing. Even bad Falcon teams have scored 487 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 1: at home in the Matt Ryan era. That was either 488 00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 1: his first or second worst performance at home on that track. 489 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:55,440 Speaker 1: They usually fast track, they play well offensively, they were abysmal. 490 00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 1: The Buccaneers with extra time to prep play poorly, and 491 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 1: one Brady with extra times always been good off buys 492 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:12,480 Speaker 1: playoff games. It's a ridiculous number, But am I ludicrous 493 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: to think twelve is should not frighten people? And that's 494 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,200 Speaker 1: a big favorite that could win. It could be an 495 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,000 Speaker 1: ugly one. I think there's a twelve and a half 496 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 1: point favorite this weekend that I'm a big fan of, 497 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 1: but it is not the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Right, why 498 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 1: it's the Cleveland Browns. I feel like, look, this is 499 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 1: this is the kind of thing where we'll know who's 500 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:37,920 Speaker 1: right and who's wrong at the end of this game, 501 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 1: and after the first two weeks, we will have a 502 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 1: better sense of what the first week told us. Right, 503 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,440 Speaker 1: it's it's it's an awkward phrasing of a sentence, but 504 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,120 Speaker 1: everyone reacts to week one. I tend to try to 505 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 1: find the opportunities in which people are overreacting to week one, 506 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 1: and I am going to make the case that the 507 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 1: Falcons were not as bad as we thought they were 508 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:05,360 Speaker 1: in Week one. The Eagles were extraordinarily good and they're 509 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 1: still not being given credit for it. I think the 510 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 1: Falcons ran into a really good team that we're going 511 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 1: to see at the end of the year is much 512 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 1: much better than we think. And it's a first year 513 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 1: head coach who is getting his feet wet and probably 514 00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 1: was really nervous, and that game plan was not very 515 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 1: good and his received the Matt Ryme's receivers were not 516 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: getting open. The Bucks secondary is a little bit banged up. 517 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 1: I think with another week of preparation for the Falcons 518 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 1: and an injured secondary for the Bucks, you're getting a 519 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 1: better opportunity. Plus the line is so inflated because of 520 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 1: the Bucks being the Bucks and then winning in prime 521 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 1: time and the Falcons losing the way they did, So 522 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 1: I think you're getting a little bit of value there. 523 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 1: That was interesting. Take Well, this is easy. So what 524 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,160 Speaker 1: we'll do every week, I'll give you eight or nine 525 00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:54,440 Speaker 1: and I have to search. I'm going to go far 526 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 1: and wide. I know three games I'm taking and I'm 527 00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 1: leaning with a fourth. But that's why I do this 528 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,520 Speaker 1: because my takeaway, as I told you last week, is 529 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 1: I don't make my final picks until Friday morning because 530 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 1: I wait for COVID stuff, I wait for injury stuff. 531 00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:14,959 Speaker 1: And I learned a lot Milman, I really did. I 532 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 1: felt i'd learned a lot here today. So Steelers Panthers, 533 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 1: who was the other one? You were? We were locked 534 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 1: in on Colts, Steelers Panthers and Colts. Yeah, those are 535 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,840 Speaker 1: my Those are the three I like. I gotta tell you, 536 00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 1: Colts Steelers Panthers an interesting one for me. Really interested 537 00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 1: in San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo being honest and acknowledging publicly. 538 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:51,320 Speaker 1: I'm making the most of it. You know, it's It's 539 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 1: always the argument, if a couple argues in public at 540 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 1: a party, what's the ride homelike? If they can't contain 541 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:01,480 Speaker 1: themselves publicly at a party like a couple and they're 542 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,640 Speaker 1: arguing publicly, what do they like driving home? What do 543 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:08,320 Speaker 1: they like at home? If Garoppolo can't contain himself on KNBR, 544 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,359 Speaker 1: then there's some anxiety in the room. And by the way, 545 00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 1: most of the Niner players are on garoppolo side. Nothing 546 00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,520 Speaker 1: against Trey Lance, but they went to a super Bowl 547 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,400 Speaker 1: with Garoppolo. He's a good looking guy, a lot of confidence. 548 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 1: He's a baller. They like him. He's an alpha. They 549 00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,800 Speaker 1: like him in that locker room, and so I And also, 550 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: I think the one thing about Philadelphia, it's an interesting 551 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 1: it's an interesting narrative that was set up. Greg Kosell 552 00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,720 Speaker 1: told me something on Thursday today and it was really interesting. 553 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:45,319 Speaker 1: He said, what Philadelphia did a really exceptional job at 554 00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,600 Speaker 1: is many of the early plays by the offense were 555 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:55,840 Speaker 1: one read plays, r pos, empty backfield, spread the defense 556 00:34:55,840 --> 00:35:01,000 Speaker 1: out where there was a pre meditated pres side to 557 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 1: go to for a young quarterback, and one early read. 558 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,560 Speaker 1: He said later in the season that may not be 559 00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,160 Speaker 1: the case next year, it's not, he said, but they 560 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,879 Speaker 1: set him up Jalen Hurts to do things he did 561 00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:20,080 Speaker 1: well and make the decisions almost pre snap. This is 562 00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:24,840 Speaker 1: what we're doing. And Cosell said it was really smart coaching. 563 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 1: They that Sarah Yanni knew what Jalen did well and 564 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:32,240 Speaker 1: just kept going back to it and Atlanta could never 565 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,359 Speaker 1: stop it. It was and he said, you know that 566 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,799 Speaker 1: that's the classic get your players, find their strengths and 567 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:42,520 Speaker 1: play to it. And Greg on film said, they really 568 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,080 Speaker 1: said this is what Jalen does and we're just going 569 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,440 Speaker 1: to keep doing it until they can stop it. And 570 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,720 Speaker 1: he said it was really, really impressive. He also said, 571 00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,000 Speaker 1: two years ago this was the slowest offense in the NFL. 572 00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:59,160 Speaker 1: He goes on film. They are significantly quicker than two 573 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 1: years ago. There's real speed on this offense, including Jalen Hurts, 574 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:09,400 Speaker 1: the receiver from Alabama, Riager, the TCU kid. So it 575 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,920 Speaker 1: listening to co Sell really kind of shifted the way 576 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,279 Speaker 1: I saw this game. I still struggle with Nick Serriani 577 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,960 Speaker 1: because he fumbles around talking to the media, and I 578 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:24,359 Speaker 1: have verbal bias. If people that speak poorly, I tend 579 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,279 Speaker 1: to think less of them. It's a terrible habit. But 580 00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,239 Speaker 1: the president, Sean mcvagh is slick. I think he's slick, right, 581 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,960 Speaker 1: he fools me. If you're good at the mic, I 582 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,839 Speaker 1: think you're You know. That's why if it was up 583 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,320 Speaker 1: to me, I'd hire a televangelist to run my company 584 00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:43,280 Speaker 1: and I'd end up, you know, a train wreck. Yeah, listen, 585 00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:46,360 Speaker 1: I agree with you. I used to be beholden to 586 00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,920 Speaker 1: the slickness. As I've gotten older, I find I just 587 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:54,160 Speaker 1: want substance. I want to build everything from the inside out. 588 00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,799 Speaker 1: I have more respect for everybody doing that than anything else. 589 00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,359 Speaker 1: You give me a organization, no matter what it is, 590 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:06,600 Speaker 1: whether it's Google or YouTube or Action Network or volume, 591 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,759 Speaker 1: build on the fundamentals. First, build from the inside out. 592 00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 1: Build the foundation, then add in all the stuff that's 593 00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:17,440 Speaker 1: going to be sort of shiny bobbles. If that's what 594 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,759 Speaker 1: the Eagles are doing. If the Eagles are building the 595 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,560 Speaker 1: foundation and their head coach doesn't know how to speak 596 00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:23,880 Speaker 1: to the media, but he knows how to speak to 597 00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,719 Speaker 1: his players, and he knows what's important for them to win, 598 00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:30,120 Speaker 1: I'll buy that. I may have completely whipped on Sirianni 599 00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,720 Speaker 1: because I read but the stories I've wrote. When Coachell 600 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:37,279 Speaker 1: said that, to me, it was really it was really impactful. 601 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:41,960 Speaker 1: He's like, they really figured out what Jalen Hurts does, 602 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:47,400 Speaker 1: and they distilled it down to a handful of things, 603 00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:49,879 Speaker 1: and they just kept going to it, and Atlanta had 604 00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:54,920 Speaker 1: no answer. Listen, mobile quarterbacks ask Nick Saban in college, 605 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,320 Speaker 1: it's hard to get your arms around him. I always 606 00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:01,080 Speaker 1: hear this, Oh, people wait till they figure out Lamar Jackson. Yeah, 607 00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,040 Speaker 1: that's not going to happen. You're not going to figure 608 00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:06,439 Speaker 1: out the fastest quarterback ever. I can't believe you haven't 609 00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,040 Speaker 1: done this take yet. I don't want my coach to 610 00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:14,480 Speaker 1: be the guy who's got instagram worthy shots at the 611 00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:17,680 Speaker 1: draft of him sitting on his couch in his beautiful 612 00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:21,120 Speaker 1: living room with his indoor outdoor living and looks like 613 00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,360 Speaker 1: a Kendall. I want my coach to be a nerdy 614 00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,240 Speaker 1: guy who doesn't know how to communicate with anyone except 615 00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,280 Speaker 1: when it comes to telling them how to play football. 616 00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:33,120 Speaker 1: And if that's what the Eagles have, by all means godspeed. 617 00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,320 Speaker 1: Yeah that's a good point. You know. That's why I 618 00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:39,440 Speaker 1: do this podcast. This is to me. You're my mentor. 619 00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:45,319 Speaker 1: I am, but a child. I acknowledged that. I don't 620 00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:49,319 Speaker 1: you know what I've said this. I'm not cool and 621 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,719 Speaker 1: I'm not a sharp I'm seeking accreditation, but I'm a 622 00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:56,160 Speaker 1: passenger on this flight. You're the pilot. So this week 623 00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,600 Speaker 1: I feel like I learned. Last week, I came in 624 00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,920 Speaker 1: a little cocky. This week, I've been humbled. I'm just 625 00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,560 Speaker 1: sitting back with a notebook and a number two pencil 626 00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:08,440 Speaker 1: writing down notes. Everybody in the world was thinking that 627 00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:13,040 Speaker 1: Shad Millman guy, he's on that that Cowherd podcast, He's 628 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:17,160 Speaker 1: the cool one. That's exactly what they're thinking. You know, 629 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:20,920 Speaker 1: our wives, I've said this before. Our wives look like sisters. 630 00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,879 Speaker 1: It is incredible. When I saw your wife, I don't 631 00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:26,160 Speaker 1: know why I thought that the cool one, because I 632 00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,640 Speaker 1: think my wife's cool. I met your wife. I literally 633 00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:30,400 Speaker 1: left that day and I told my wife, I'm like, 634 00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:34,319 Speaker 1: there's some genetic connection here. You guys are we've got 635 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,719 Speaker 1: to do with twenty three and me. It's incredible. And 636 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 1: by the way, both we've outkicked our coverage, both of us. 637 00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:45,640 Speaker 1: I have no problem with it. It's silly. It's honestly silly. 638 00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 1: It is. Hey, listen, one more thing, as you know. 639 00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,319 Speaker 1: We entered you as a gift Simon Hunter, and I 640 00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,359 Speaker 1: entered you into a season long Survivor contest. You won 641 00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,440 Speaker 1: lest what I pick? Last week? You had the Rams 642 00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:01,160 Speaker 1: this week this this week, you are going to choose 643 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:05,319 Speaker 1: the Browns. Yes, I am. That's a good pick. I mean, 644 00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,120 Speaker 1: I can take the Buccaneers of the Browns, but I 645 00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,160 Speaker 1: think I'm gonna save the Buccaneers for later. Yes, I'll 646 00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,720 Speaker 1: take Cleveland, the other option you can have as the Packers, 647 00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,120 Speaker 1: but I think you should go with the Browns. Yeah, 648 00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,560 Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm not so sure Green Bay is going 649 00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:19,879 Speaker 1: to be the same team we think. I'm gonna take 650 00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,600 Speaker 1: the Browns. All right, we're in it together. Good talking, anybody. 651 00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,000 Speaker 1: Just a couple of guys who marry redheads taking the Browns. 652 00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:31,759 Speaker 1: Beautiful redheads. Yes, beau stylish. See you buddy, see you later, 653 00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,560 Speaker 1: all right. That's Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer, Action Network 654 00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,680 Speaker 1: Rate Reviews. Subscribe on Instagram, follow us on YouTube, Twitter 655 00:40:39,800 --> 00:41:13,200 Speaker 1: two at Volume Sports, The Volume