WEBVTT - Vaccine Could Reduce Stress for Parents, Children

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube. Searched Bloomberg clovel News, Tim Stuck and Katie

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<v Speaker 1>Graydfeld live in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio in New York. Katie,

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<v Speaker 1>you and I were talking just a few minutes ago

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<v Speaker 1>about this one incentive that Mary Bill de Blasio is

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<v Speaker 1>offering parents of students, I should say, five to eleven

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<v Speaker 1>year olds Thursday at city run sites where kids are

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<v Speaker 1>eligible to get their shots. Yeah, it's interesting that they're

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<v Speaker 1>moving forward with in incentive. You know, there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of opinions on both sides about whether to vaccinate children,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's interesting to take see them taking the carrot approach.

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<v Speaker 1>What about the incentive about mental health, because that's something

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<v Speaker 1>that our next guest has a lot to talk about.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Tamar Mendelssohn as director of the Center for Adolescent

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<v Speaker 1>Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The

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<v Speaker 1>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health is supported by

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<v Speaker 1>Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Mendelssohn, it's great to have you on the program.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you talk a little bit about the connection between

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<v Speaker 1>mental health and where we are in the pandemic, especially

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<v Speaker 1>among the youngest and I would say argue among the

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<v Speaker 1>most vulnerable people in our society. Yeah, well, hello, and

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<v Speaker 1>thank you for having me. So clearly the pandemic has

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<v Speaker 1>been a time of incredible stress for families, and that

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<v Speaker 1>includes young people. We've seen the data that rates of

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<v Speaker 1>depression and anxiety and suicide increased for young people during

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<v Speaker 1>the COVID pandemic. So this is terrific news that we

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<v Speaker 1>have this vaccine that's now going to be available for

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<v Speaker 1>kids between the ages of five and eleven. Enough, around

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eight million American children, So The hope now is

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<v Speaker 1>that this vaccine can help us with more of a

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<v Speaker 1>return to normalcy, can help reduce parents stress, and allow

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<v Speaker 1>young people to have more in person interactions with family

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<v Speaker 1>and friends, and hopefully that will help everybody's mental health.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm curious, you know, where do you think this

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<v Speaker 1>has to come from? Because obviously Tim and I have

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<v Speaker 1>been talking about the fact that New York City is

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<v Speaker 1>offering one hundred dollar incentive to get kids vaccinated. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>would you expect to see more of those types of

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<v Speaker 1>bonuses or incentives rolled out across the country. A is uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we try to improve vaccination rates among younger people.

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<v Speaker 1>I think working to improve vaccine uptake for parents, um,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, sort of getting parents confident and comfortable

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinating their children is a really really important thing. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of us have been bombarded on

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<v Speaker 1>social media was all kinds of misinformation, so people are confused,

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<v Speaker 1>they're not may be sure that they have all the

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<v Speaker 1>right information, and so I think it's really important for

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<v Speaker 1>us to do the outreach, to do the work to

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<v Speaker 1>answer questions and bust myths so that you know, parents

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<v Speaker 1>feel confident. What's the right way to do that because

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<v Speaker 1>I I shared this story last week, but I'll share

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<v Speaker 1>it again for those who weren't listening. I was at

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<v Speaker 1>the doctor speaking to a healthcare provider last week and

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<v Speaker 1>we were just making small talk because I was about

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<v Speaker 1>to get my blood drawn, which is something I just

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<v Speaker 1>cannot stand to happen. And she was saying that she

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<v Speaker 1>has kids who are between the ages of five and eleven.

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<v Speaker 1>I said, Oh, you're so lucky, because they'll be able

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<v Speaker 1>to get vaccinated soon. And she told me, and this

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<v Speaker 1>is someone who works at a hospital, Oh, I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>going to do it. I'm gonna wait, what would you

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<v Speaker 1>say to her? So obviously it's a parent's personal decision.

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<v Speaker 1>But all the data and all the infectious disease experts

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<v Speaker 1>UM that I've interacted with have really highlighted the incredible

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<v Speaker 1>benefits that the vaccine has to offer. And really, I'd

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<v Speaker 1>be much more nervous as a parent not getting my

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<v Speaker 1>child vaccinated. And so Dr Mendelssohn, I want to talk

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<v Speaker 1>more about UM the mental health aspect of this, and

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<v Speaker 1>child and adolescent mental health in terms of you know

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<v Speaker 1>how obviously the pandemic has taken a toll on all

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<v Speaker 1>of us mental health wise, but you know, particularly those

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<v Speaker 1>young people, and I'm curious you know to your point

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<v Speaker 1>that getting vaccinated the return to normal that could improve

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<v Speaker 1>mental health. Um, I mean walk us through that link.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that just because you know we'll be able to

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<v Speaker 1>go out and socialize more. I think it can really

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<v Speaker 1>reduce some of the stress that is affecting families because

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<v Speaker 1>parents may be vaccinated while children below the age of

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<v Speaker 1>twelve are not vaccinated, and this can create the anxiety

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<v Speaker 1>around what kind of family gatherings can we have holidays?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, how can I protect my children while still

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<v Speaker 1>living life and trying to return to normal in some way.

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<v Speaker 1>So I definitely think the vaccination can help families have

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<v Speaker 1>that extra confidence. I also think that the more we

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<v Speaker 1>can return to a semblance of normalcy across the board

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<v Speaker 1>at schools and so forth, the more that children and

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<v Speaker 1>teenagers can kind of get back to the business of

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<v Speaker 1>their development and focus on, you know, socializing and growing

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<v Speaker 1>emotionally and the things that really they need to do

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<v Speaker 1>at this stage. Dr Mendelson My son was fourteen months

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<v Speaker 1>when the pandemic hit. He's almost three now. He thinks

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<v Speaker 1>everything is hand sanitizer and he knows how to put

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<v Speaker 1>on a mask, and I just think to myself, this

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<v Speaker 1>is like a pandemic baby. This is going these are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be his earliest memories. What are long term

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<v Speaker 1>thoughts on that? And just in the last thirty seconds

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<v Speaker 1>that we have. Absolutely there's going to be a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of shared generational experience with this pandemic. I do think

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<v Speaker 1>young people are incredible and resilient, and you know they

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be fine, but many young people have

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<v Speaker 1>coped with serious trauma like losing a parent. So for

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<v Speaker 1>those young people, we really do need to make sure

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<v Speaker 1>that they have the mental health and emotional supports that

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<v Speaker 1>they need to thrive. Dr Tamar Mendelssohn, director of the

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<v Speaker 1>Center for Adolescent Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School

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<v Speaker 1>of Health, joining us on the phone from Baltimore. The

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<v Speaker 1>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. It is supported

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<v Speaker 1>by Michael R. Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg LP and

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg philanthropist. Katie's something I've been thinking about a lot,

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<v Speaker 1>just what it looks like on the other side of this,

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<v Speaker 1>or if this is something we're just gonna continually be

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<v Speaker 1>dealing with. Absolutely almost feels like we're in purgatory. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the way a lot of people think about it.

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is Bloomberg Radio, and this is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, it's Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 1>Big Take today, the very best of Bloomberg's in depth

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<v Speaker 1>original reporting from around the globe. It's written by Jillian Tan,

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<v Speaker 1>scenior reporter at Bloomberg News. She joins us here in

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<v Speaker 1>the New York City Bureau. It's all about soft Bank's

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<v Speaker 1>Masioshi's son. He cannot pay enough talent enough to keep

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<v Speaker 1>Vision Fund talent so happy. As the Japanese company prepares

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<v Speaker 1>to distribute profits in December, some of its key startup

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<v Speaker 1>investors have headed for the door. Jillian joins us. Now, Jillian,

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<v Speaker 1>before we get into what exactly is happening at SoftBank's

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<v Speaker 1>Vision Fund, can you give us an idea of how

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<v Speaker 1>venture capital venture capitalist partners are traditionally compensated. Yeah, so,

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<v Speaker 1>just um also to just jump in, I worked on

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<v Speaker 1>this with colleagues in Japan and on London. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to take it away from them. I wasn't the

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<v Speaker 1>only author, but capital partners are traditionally compensated with up carry,

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<v Speaker 1>which is essentially a distribution of profits. So for example,

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<v Speaker 1>let's say, way way back in the day, if you

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<v Speaker 1>were to invest in the company let's say Facebook, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>and it went public and your fun were to make

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<v Speaker 1>X amounts, you would be entitled to roughly of those profits.

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<v Speaker 1>And so what's different at soft bank and how they

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<v Speaker 1>actually compensate their employees and why is that leading to

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<v Speaker 1>these defections? Yes, so we have reported that since I

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<v Speaker 1>think last March, there have been seven managing partner exits

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<v Speaker 1>and the firm sole senior managing partner UM is set

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<v Speaker 1>to exit by the end of this year. UM. One

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<v Speaker 1>of the key reasons is they have an eccentric approach

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<v Speaker 1>to pay and carry. And what we've reported in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of the December distribution, that's the first carry payment that

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<v Speaker 1>any of these folks or the folks who are left

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<v Speaker 1>should I say, they're going to be receiving from the

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<v Speaker 1>hundred billion Vision Fund vehicle. And if you think about it,

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<v Speaker 1>these are names companies that have invested in include like Door,

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<v Speaker 1>Dash Cooper, which is a big Korean company, h uber

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<v Speaker 1>A Garden Health, which is a healthcare company that found public.

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<v Speaker 1>Just you know, dozens and dozens of companies that have

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<v Speaker 1>now gone public that these guys haven't seen, guys and

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<v Speaker 1>girls haven't seen any profits from. And there have been

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<v Speaker 1>some mrs too, though most notably we work, Yeah, we

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<v Speaker 1>work and a little company called Greensill, which is a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of a disaster that obviously, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's very clear and soft Bok reports this um

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<v Speaker 1>the Vision Fund is in the green um. It just

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<v Speaker 1>hasn't been really compensating. It's senior investment staff. Well, that's

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<v Speaker 1>what I'm curious about. Whether this his you know, slowed

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<v Speaker 1>soft bank down at all, because you know, I was

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<v Speaker 1>saying to him, it feels like they have a footprint

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<v Speaker 1>in everything. It still feels like every other week I

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<v Speaker 1>see a headline about a new investment that they're making. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>almost daily now sometimes it feels like honestly, um, but no,

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<v Speaker 1>it hasn't slowed them down. They're now investing out of

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<v Speaker 1>Vision Fund to which actually has no outside investors. One

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<v Speaker 1>key seeing Vision Fund one was backed by sovereign wealth

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<v Speaker 1>funds out of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi. Or el

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<v Speaker 1>Vision Fund, who was purely soft Bank capital, and then

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<v Speaker 1>also Martha's Sons Capital, which is which is one of

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<v Speaker 1>the reasons he justifies taking a large portion of returns

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<v Speaker 1>from that right exactly, which is also why he you know,

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't want to pay out out of self banks profits

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<v Speaker 1>to staff is he obviously wants to retain that himself

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<v Speaker 1>and also shareholders in the public company that is Self Bank. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so what do compensation experts tell you about what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>here and also where are these defectors going? Yes, so

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<v Speaker 1>we spoke to a bunch of effects. That's obviously it's

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<v Speaker 1>pretty clear if you don't pay enough, people aren't going

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<v Speaker 1>to stick around. UM people going to various places. One

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<v Speaker 1>managing Partners starting his own new firm. Another two went

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<v Speaker 1>to Gore's Group where they invest in companies and they're

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<v Speaker 1>sort of leading a spack effort across there. Another has left,

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<v Speaker 1>I think to write a book and it's just you know,

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<v Speaker 1>hasn't exactly said what they're up to next. And another

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<v Speaker 1>one joined a company called Naspers, which is um a

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<v Speaker 1>big South African based UM giant. And just finally in

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<v Speaker 1>the last twenty seconds that we have with you, Jilian.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not like they're not getting paid much if they're

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<v Speaker 1>staying there, because junior and senior level salaries are high.

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<v Speaker 1>They're five seven hundred thousand dollars. Yeah, I know, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a regular table, like regular amrians, just like regular people

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<v Speaker 1>around anywhere. Um, these aren't small salaries. Cash salaries obviously

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<v Speaker 1>very high. It's just to carry you know, they would

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<v Speaker 1>be expecting tens of millions that they're just really not

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<v Speaker 1>getting at this point. Well, it's a great story. Jillian

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<v Speaker 1>Tan co wrote it with two of our colleagues around

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<v Speaker 1>the world. It's stays Bloomberg Big Take. Check it out

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<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg terminal and of course at Bloomberg dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>Jillian tan Senior reporter for Bloomberg News. You're listening to

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, it's the cover of

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<v Speaker 1>now on news stands and at Bloomberg dot com Slash

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<v Speaker 1>business Week. The cover, jol is all about twenty three

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<v Speaker 1>and me. It wants to use its customers genetic data

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<v Speaker 1>to beat cancer. This story is by Well. This story

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<v Speaker 1>is by Kristin Brown. And joining us now is Joel Webber,

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<v Speaker 1>editor at Bloomberg Business with He's with us in the

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<v Speaker 1>editors on the piece. He's on the US Healthcare team

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0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:17.760
<v Speaker 1>three and me. A lot of people recognized the company

0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:22.599
<v Speaker 1>found founded uh by headed by in Wachitzki as the

0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:25.319
<v Speaker 1>company that you spit into a tube, you send it

0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.480
<v Speaker 1>off and you understand more about your own ancestry, your

0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:31.240
<v Speaker 1>own your own family history. Have you done it? I

0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:34.560
<v Speaker 1>have not? And that was all, you know. The genius

0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:37.520
<v Speaker 1>part of this business is, I think Kristen's story goes

0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.120
<v Speaker 1>into is that a lot of people did, like millions

0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:44.760
<v Speaker 1>of them. And when that project started ten plus years ago,

0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:47.440
<v Speaker 1>it was just about like, hey, where did you come from?

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.000
<v Speaker 1>What's your what's in your d na um? And it

0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.920
<v Speaker 1>seemed really you know, innoculus, But there was a master

0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:56.480
<v Speaker 1>plan all along. What was that master planned? Tim? That

0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:59.840
<v Speaker 1>was go ahead? Tim Andette? Yeah, sure, So the master

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:04.760
<v Speaker 1>plan was to become a pharmaceutical company. Right. Um, as

0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.440
<v Speaker 1>we say in the story, UH and with just has

0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:09.320
<v Speaker 1>sort of had this vision from the very beginning. She

0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.679
<v Speaker 1>even wrote it down and one of her investors had

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:16.120
<v Speaker 1>it framed and they gave it to her later on.

0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:20.680
<v Speaker 1>It's it's um you know, remarkable story of consistency in

0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:22.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot of ways. You know, they sort of stuck

0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:25.680
<v Speaker 1>to what their vision was. And now they are sort

0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:27.800
<v Speaker 1>of in a position now that they have all of

0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:29.760
<v Speaker 1>this data from all of those people who have been

0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 1>into those tubes to move forward with it. And so

0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:36.679
<v Speaker 1>how does twenty three and me actually execute that vision?

0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 1>How do they go from you know, sort of a

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:40.600
<v Speaker 1>fun service you spent the two of you pay and

0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:44.280
<v Speaker 1>you analyze your ancestry to you know, a full blown

0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 1>pharmaceutical company. Well, so it's a lot of science, right,

0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:51.640
<v Speaker 1>just like any drug company, They're going to have to

0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:53.840
<v Speaker 1>go into the laboratory and they're going to have to

0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:56.520
<v Speaker 1>try a lot of things out. And as we know

0:13:56.760 --> 0:14:00.520
<v Speaker 1>from UH pharmaceutical history, a lot of things that you've

0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.160
<v Speaker 1>take into the lab don't work out. It's a little

0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:05.360
<v Speaker 1>better than one in ten chance that any drug is

0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:09.040
<v Speaker 1>going to get to the market from its initial conception.

0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:12.040
<v Speaker 1>So twenty three and me is betting that they have

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:15.480
<v Speaker 1>all this this genetic data, and genetic data is very

0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.400
<v Speaker 1>valuable because it can allow you to sort of take

0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.440
<v Speaker 1>some shortcuts in that development process. You've got a lot

0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 1>of numbers you can crunch to try to find both

0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:27.800
<v Speaker 1>things that you could possibly drug right, things that are

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:32.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, ailments or um defects that drugs could target,

0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:35.920
<v Speaker 1>or you could find ways to use old drugs for

0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.640
<v Speaker 1>new things. I don't think Tim that people who did

0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:43.120
<v Speaker 1>this originally over the last decade realized that what they

0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:46.440
<v Speaker 1>were doing was potentially contributing to a different vision of

0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:48.960
<v Speaker 1>the company. And I'm wondering what the company says about

0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 1>that and how they reconcile that. Well. I think, you know,

0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:56.200
<v Speaker 1>the thing that they say to people is that, you know,

0:14:56.320 --> 0:15:00.160
<v Speaker 1>we're a healthcare company and we want to help you

0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:03.840
<v Speaker 1>use the information that can be found in your genetic code,

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 1>uh to make you well, to make you better, and uh,

0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:11.680
<v Speaker 1>you know the I think the the other side of

0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:15.120
<v Speaker 1>this is that, you know, thousands of people participate in

0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:18.480
<v Speaker 1>clinical trials and everything. There are different um sort of

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, levels of consent with these things, um. But

0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:25.560
<v Speaker 1>but you know, they they make the argument that we

0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 1>have this data and we can act on it, and

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:29.680
<v Speaker 1>we can get things to you faster than others might

0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 1>be able to. So this, this idea of using genetics

0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:36.160
<v Speaker 1>to actually make drugs is basically untested. That they're the

0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:38.720
<v Speaker 1>first company that will be kind of doing this. And

0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:42.400
<v Speaker 1>what's their pipeline look like, Tim, Well, they've got up

0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 1>pretty pretty good pipeline for a company that's been you know,

0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:49.000
<v Speaker 1>sort of not doing this for a terribly long time.

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 1>Over the past year, they were able to sort of

0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:54.760
<v Speaker 1>double the number of candidates they're working on. They've got

0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 1>about eighteen now. And bear mindus is at a time

0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:00.560
<v Speaker 1>when you know, a lot of people were are not

0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:02.760
<v Speaker 1>working in an office. You know, there are people were

0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.640
<v Speaker 1>all spread out like many companies. And at the same time,

0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:08.280
<v Speaker 1>a lot of drug companies were having trouble recruiting for

0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:10.680
<v Speaker 1>clinical trials and stuff. So they've been able to sort

0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:13.240
<v Speaker 1>of do a lot of this data work over the

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 1>past year, even when other sciences slowed down. It seems like,

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:21.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you guys write about this in this story

0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.920
<v Speaker 1>right the valley of death between the idea of getting

0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:28.240
<v Speaker 1>something approved versus actually developing the drug. It seems like

0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:30.800
<v Speaker 1>another avenue that could happen is twenty three and Me

0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:33.520
<v Speaker 1>gets bought by a bigger pharmaceutical company, and then that

0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.960
<v Speaker 1>bigger farma company can then use that data explain partnerships,

0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.760
<v Speaker 1>how that's working, and how potentially some of the companies

0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:43.520
<v Speaker 1>that it's partnering with could end up being competitors. Sure,

0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.760
<v Speaker 1>so they have a notably, they have a partnership with

0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:49.840
<v Speaker 1>Glacksow Smith Klein Um. That is, um, you know, these

0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:53.200
<v Speaker 1>companies are working very closely together on treatments. But you know,

0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.040
<v Speaker 1>in the competitive landscape of farma, as we all know,

0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:59.040
<v Speaker 1>there are lots and lots of deals that happened, um

0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:03.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, companies buying other companies, but also there's licensing deals,

0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:07.159
<v Speaker 1>there are partnerships. There are many companies out there that

0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:12.000
<v Speaker 1>remains freestanding companies but partner with rival companies on what

0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:15.959
<v Speaker 1>are oftentimes their biggest selling drugs. Right, So, the commercial

0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:19.080
<v Speaker 1>flavors of this to go in a lot of different directions.

0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:20.800
<v Speaker 1>For twenty three and Me, I mean, twenty three and

0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.720
<v Speaker 1>Me is still a relatively small company in the forming universe,

0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.200
<v Speaker 1>right there, like a five billion dollar company right now.

0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:28.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, a lot of the biggest companies in the

0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:30.720
<v Speaker 1>in the space are you know, hundred billion plus in

0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:34.119
<v Speaker 1>market cap. So UM, you know, they're a mino for sure,

0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:36.679
<v Speaker 1>and they're gonna need help, but they're getting it from

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:39.159
<v Speaker 1>companies like black So that do have mass and do

0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:42.919
<v Speaker 1>have commercial know how and and production know how and

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:45.639
<v Speaker 1>all of those things that you know, younger drunk companies

0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:48.840
<v Speaker 1>really need when they're when they're starting and so still

0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.640
<v Speaker 1>a small fish twenty three and me. But I'm curious,

0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:54.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, are there any other companies trying to do

0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:56.280
<v Speaker 1>what they're trying to do and do they have the

0:17:56.359 --> 0:18:01.639
<v Speaker 1>same huge database THEE and ME has. I mean, I

0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:05.840
<v Speaker 1>did the company that has the most similar databases Ancestry

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.720
<v Speaker 1>right that they're not really doing this, um. There are

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.960
<v Speaker 1>lots of other companies out there that are using genetic

0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 1>therapies for different um therapeutic purposes, right Like You've got

0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:22.560
<v Speaker 1>Maderna for example, that it's RNA technology is behind the

0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:25.960
<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen vaccine. UM. There are also companies out there

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:30.320
<v Speaker 1>doing things with gene editing with crisper Um. There's a

0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:34.040
<v Speaker 1>really interesting technology called RNA interference that a company called

0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:36.040
<v Speaker 1>al Nylum is a very big and so there are

0:18:36.119 --> 0:18:39.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of different kinds of sort of genetic technologies

0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:43.080
<v Speaker 1>out there that companies are trying out. So, by the way,

0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:45.960
<v Speaker 1>this Minno was a startup, a spit tube startup. Now

0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:48.480
<v Speaker 1>it's a publicly traded company and went public via spack

0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:51.000
<v Speaker 1>earlier this year. What do the market think about this?

0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:53.320
<v Speaker 1>This company and Tim, we only have about thirty seconds.

0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:56.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean they've been pretty well so far. Right, They've

0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:59.280
<v Speaker 1>grown since they did the spac deel and and they're

0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:02.560
<v Speaker 1>probably the shoot yeah, yeah, they're is more profitable. I

0:19:02.600 --> 0:19:04.640
<v Speaker 1>mean they have a big commercial business, right that has

0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:07.200
<v Speaker 1>like Super Bowl ads and stuff. So um, that's the

0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:09.879
<v Speaker 1>thing a lot of drug companies don't have, is just

0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:13.480
<v Speaker 1>some recognition. Well, it's a great story. It's written by

0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:16.320
<v Speaker 1>Kristin V. Brown. It's the cover of the new issue

0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:19.600
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. It's available now on newsstands

0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:22.200
<v Speaker 1>and at Bloomberg dot com Slash business Week. A big

0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:25.600
<v Speaker 1>thank you to Timinette, us healthcare team leader for Bloomberg News.

0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:27.120
<v Speaker 1>He joined us on the phone from New York City.

0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:30.159
<v Speaker 1>Also joining us in the flesh here, Innie Bloomberg and

0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:34.080
<v Speaker 1>actor Broker Studios, Joe Webbert, editor at Bloomberg Business Week,

0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:38.520
<v Speaker 1>you're listen to Bloomberg Radio and this is Bloomberg. This

0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:42.560
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick

0:19:42.640 --> 0:19:47.040
<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. So on Tuesday, Zillo

0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:49.760
<v Speaker 1>Stuck tumbled after It's stunned the real estate industry when

0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:51.879
<v Speaker 1>it said it was shutting down its home flipping business

0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:55.240
<v Speaker 1>after racking up losses. Katie had me thinking a lot

0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:58.040
<v Speaker 1>about what that says about Zillo's model, Also if it

0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:01.120
<v Speaker 1>says anything about what's happening with the residential real estate

0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:03.280
<v Speaker 1>around the country. So a great time for us to

0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:06.680
<v Speaker 1>check in with somebody who probably knows more about residential

0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:09.600
<v Speaker 1>real estate than almost anyone. We talked to Dallas Tanner,

0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:13.400
<v Speaker 1>the president and CEO of Invitation Homes. It has more

0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 1>than eighty thou homes. It's the largest owner of single

0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:20.000
<v Speaker 1>family rental homes in the US. Right now, Dallas joins

0:20:20.119 --> 0:20:23.879
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Dallas, Texas. Dallas, how are you.

0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:27.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm doing great, Thanks for having me today. Yeah, thanks

0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:29.760
<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us. Well, let's start with what

0:20:29.880 --> 0:20:33.200
<v Speaker 1>happened with Zillo and perhaps how the invitation homes model

0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:36.440
<v Speaker 1>is different. But what was your reaction when you saw

0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:40.000
<v Speaker 1>that news from Zillo earlier this week? You know, candidly,

0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:43.440
<v Speaker 1>I was surprised, um, given the fact that the I

0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:46.200
<v Speaker 1>buyer space has continued to get more and more robust

0:20:46.240 --> 0:20:49.600
<v Speaker 1>over time. Uh, you know some other competitors. I think

0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:53.880
<v Speaker 1>you've done a really nice job managing inventory. And like, now,

0:20:54.080 --> 0:20:56.920
<v Speaker 1>with that being said, I couldn't tell you. We don't

0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:59.280
<v Speaker 1>know all the details as to what happened. And Zella

0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:01.919
<v Speaker 1>has a pretty deeps business right in terms of some

0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:03.879
<v Speaker 1>of the other services that they offer. So my guess

0:21:03.920 --> 0:21:07.080
<v Speaker 1>is strategically internally, they're probably looking at, you know, where

0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:09.400
<v Speaker 1>their strengths and weaknesses were and ultimately made the call

0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:12.240
<v Speaker 1>that they did. But with that being said, the housing market,

0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:15.840
<v Speaker 1>it's fundamentals, uh, you know the supply chain right now

0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:18.200
<v Speaker 1>that the balance of supply that we have quite frankly

0:21:18.240 --> 0:21:21.520
<v Speaker 1>relative to demand are all lending itself to you know,

0:21:22.440 --> 0:21:24.600
<v Speaker 1>a market that feels really strong. And I think they

0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:26.760
<v Speaker 1>said as much even in their in their earnings called.

0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:29.719
<v Speaker 1>So you didn't see the Zillo news and you're, according

0:21:29.760 --> 0:21:32.080
<v Speaker 1>to your own metrics and internal metrics that you see

0:21:32.320 --> 0:21:34.280
<v Speaker 1>as any sort of canary in the coal mine about

0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:37.400
<v Speaker 1>the housing market in the US. No, not for US.

0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:39.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean you got to think about the volume. I

0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:42.160
<v Speaker 1>I don't know their exact numbers in terms of how

0:21:42.160 --> 0:21:44.120
<v Speaker 1>many of the homes they had on balance sheet. I'm

0:21:44.119 --> 0:21:46.640
<v Speaker 1>sure somewhere between ten and twelve thousand or something like that.

0:21:46.760 --> 0:21:50.240
<v Speaker 1>But that's such a small percentage of the six and

0:21:50.240 --> 0:21:53.080
<v Speaker 1>a half million resales that we see every year UH

0:21:53.160 --> 0:21:56.560
<v Speaker 1>in US single families. So no, I wouldn't look at

0:21:56.560 --> 0:21:59.520
<v Speaker 1>it as a barometer of something that's going on the marketplace. Fact,

0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:01.440
<v Speaker 1>I kind of think the opposite if you look at

0:22:01.520 --> 0:22:03.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, some of their competitors, if you look at

0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:06.159
<v Speaker 1>our business. You could look at anyone really in single family,

0:22:06.280 --> 0:22:09.280
<v Speaker 1>if you're a home builder or a SFR operator like

0:22:09.320 --> 0:22:13.959
<v Speaker 1>we are, or we're having record occupancy occupancy, record revenue

0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:17.720
<v Speaker 1>growth because rents are so um in demand right now

0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:20.119
<v Speaker 1>in terms of having that flexibility of lease, and so

0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:23.919
<v Speaker 1>we're actually seeing the opposite in our business. And Dallas

0:22:24.560 --> 0:22:28.320
<v Speaker 1>the company said that back in February that uh IT

0:22:28.480 --> 0:22:32.040
<v Speaker 1>planned to spend at least one billion dollars buying properties

0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:33.679
<v Speaker 1>this year. And you, I mean you touched on it

0:22:33.720 --> 0:22:35.960
<v Speaker 1>that just if you look at the housing market, uh,

0:22:36.000 --> 0:22:39.160
<v Speaker 1>the supply of homes, uh, it's it feels like it's

0:22:39.200 --> 0:22:43.000
<v Speaker 1>really dwindled. And the housing market has just been on fire.

0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:46.200
<v Speaker 1>So in terms of spending that one billion dollars, has

0:22:46.200 --> 0:22:50.439
<v Speaker 1>that been difficult to even find houses to buy? In

0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:54.200
<v Speaker 1>terms for our business invitation homes, you know, it's been interesting.

0:22:54.200 --> 0:22:56.919
<v Speaker 1>We actually updated guidance this last quarter. We're gonna be

0:22:56.960 --> 0:22:59.680
<v Speaker 1>somewhere between a billion seven and a billion eight this year,

0:22:59.720 --> 0:23:02.160
<v Speaker 1>in turn is of new acquisitions, so we've actually outperformed

0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:04.720
<v Speaker 1>what was our initial you know kind of targets. Now,

0:23:04.720 --> 0:23:08.280
<v Speaker 1>with that being said, yes, the market has some supply challenges,

0:23:08.320 --> 0:23:11.280
<v Speaker 1>there's no doubt about it. Although we are seeing supply

0:23:11.520 --> 0:23:14.800
<v Speaker 1>creep back into the resale market um at a little

0:23:14.800 --> 0:23:17.520
<v Speaker 1>bit better clip than we've seen historically. With that being said,

0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:19.560
<v Speaker 1>it's still at an all time low. You have interest

0:23:19.680 --> 0:23:21.320
<v Speaker 1>rates that are still I think I saw the day

0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:23.680
<v Speaker 1>of the thirty year is that just north of three percent.

0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:27.320
<v Speaker 1>That's still really cheap money, cheap availability of finance for

0:23:27.359 --> 0:23:29.879
<v Speaker 1>those that can qualify for mortgage. So it's actually I

0:23:29.920 --> 0:23:33.440
<v Speaker 1>think keeping the supply pretty tight because homebuyers. Again, those

0:23:33.440 --> 0:23:36.000
<v Speaker 1>six and a half million resales we talked about those

0:23:36.040 --> 0:23:39.880
<v Speaker 1>are still going. You know, those two end users would

0:23:39.880 --> 0:23:42.040
<v Speaker 1>be my guests at the end of the day. So

0:23:42.440 --> 0:23:44.520
<v Speaker 1>we pick our spots. Were very deliberate about where we

0:23:44.520 --> 0:23:47.480
<v Speaker 1>invest capital and why we have partners with a number

0:23:47.480 --> 0:23:50.560
<v Speaker 1>of different homebuilders we're helping bring new supply to the marketplace.

0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:52.679
<v Speaker 1>So we've we've definitely kind of had to you know,

0:23:53.040 --> 0:23:56.280
<v Speaker 1>be deliberate and and really anchoring on our different channels

0:23:56.280 --> 0:23:58.280
<v Speaker 1>for acquiring product. But we've been able to do it,

0:23:59.119 --> 0:24:01.240
<v Speaker 1>albeit it is a tough environment and we have to

0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:03.879
<v Speaker 1>be you know, consistent in terms of our approach. Dallas,

0:24:03.960 --> 0:24:06.480
<v Speaker 1>is there a time or a price where you see

0:24:06.560 --> 0:24:08.800
<v Speaker 1>homes in the United States on a whole becoming so

0:24:08.840 --> 0:24:12.919
<v Speaker 1>expensive that you're no longer in an acquiring mode. Well,

0:24:12.960 --> 0:24:15.040
<v Speaker 1>there's always cycles, right so you could certainly see a

0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:17.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, at some point there could be a cycle

0:24:17.080 --> 0:24:20.399
<v Speaker 1>where homes get to price based on your investment criteria

0:24:20.480 --> 0:24:23.320
<v Speaker 1>of where you want to invest capital. Why doesn't feel

0:24:23.400 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 1>like that right now? We can still buy homes at

0:24:25.840 --> 0:24:28.639
<v Speaker 1>a really attractive you know, what we do as our

0:24:28.680 --> 0:24:32.280
<v Speaker 1>own cost of capital relative to the types of yields

0:24:32.280 --> 0:24:34.360
<v Speaker 1>and things that we can find in the marketplace. Now

0:24:34.359 --> 0:24:37.480
<v Speaker 1>will that last forever? Time will tell. Trees don't typically

0:24:37.480 --> 0:24:39.480
<v Speaker 1>grow to the sky. But I think the difference in

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:41.760
<v Speaker 1>our business, it's very different from an eye buyer from

0:24:41.800 --> 0:24:44.280
<v Speaker 1>somebody else, is that you know, our customers stays us

0:24:44.280 --> 0:24:47.040
<v Speaker 1>for three plus years right now, They renew two or

0:24:47.160 --> 0:24:50.040
<v Speaker 1>three times there at least with our with our business,

0:24:50.119 --> 0:24:52.879
<v Speaker 1>and they actually love the service. They want to renew

0:24:52.920 --> 0:24:55.560
<v Speaker 1>because they like the flexibility of the leaks. Totally different

0:24:55.600 --> 0:24:57.440
<v Speaker 1>than a home flipper or somebody that's just in and

0:24:57.520 --> 0:24:59.959
<v Speaker 1>out of a marketplace really quickly. That's not our mod.

0:25:00.119 --> 0:25:03.240
<v Speaker 1>We're long term investors. We're making decisions for five, ten,

0:25:03.359 --> 0:25:05.760
<v Speaker 1>fifteen year horizons and we want to make sure that

0:25:05.800 --> 0:25:08.840
<v Speaker 1>we're offering a product that's sustainable. So the approach of

0:25:08.960 --> 0:25:11.640
<v Speaker 1>the different business models are very different. And so Dallas,

0:25:11.680 --> 0:25:13.800
<v Speaker 1>we have just about thirty seconds left. But you do

0:25:13.840 --> 0:25:18.040
<v Speaker 1>have a big footprint in the Western United States, you know, Texas, Florida.

0:25:18.320 --> 0:25:20.760
<v Speaker 1>Do you have any plans to expand outside of that

0:25:22.359 --> 0:25:25.080
<v Speaker 1>great question. Yes, our revenue comes out of the West

0:25:25.080 --> 0:25:27.720
<v Speaker 1>Coast and parts of the Sun Belt. Um, we love

0:25:27.840 --> 0:25:30.760
<v Speaker 1>markets like Austin, you know Salt Lake City, Nashville that

0:25:30.800 --> 0:25:33.639
<v Speaker 1>we don't currently have footprints in that could be potential

0:25:33.960 --> 0:25:36.320
<v Speaker 1>markets for us to expand into over time. We'd have

0:25:36.400 --> 0:25:38.600
<v Speaker 1>to have a really good entry point and find a

0:25:38.640 --> 0:25:40.800
<v Speaker 1>way to get the scale that's meaningful for the way

0:25:40.840 --> 0:25:43.120
<v Speaker 1>that we like to operate our business. Dallas Tanner, You've

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:45.080
<v Speaker 1>got to come back and spend some more time with us.

0:25:45.119 --> 0:25:48.560
<v Speaker 1>A great conversation, President and CEO at Invitation Homes. The stock,

0:25:48.600 --> 0:25:50.520
<v Speaker 1>by the way, Katie has been on a tear this year,

0:25:50.600 --> 0:25:54.560
<v Speaker 1>higher by more than thirty seven percent. Dallas Tanner joining

0:25:54.640 --> 0:25:58.080
<v Speaker 1>us by zoom from Dallas, Texas. This is Bloomberg Radio.

0:25:58.320 --> 0:26:08.400
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Yeah, but you let

0:26:08.400 --> 0:26:10.720
<v Speaker 1>me drive. Oh no, no, no no no, this is not

0:26:10.840 --> 0:26:17.320
<v Speaker 1>a toy home. Please, I'll ride gravels. I want to

0:26:17.400 --> 0:26:29.560
<v Speaker 1>drive the question. This is the Drive to the Globe

0:26:29.760 --> 0:26:33.679
<v Speaker 1>on Bluebird Radio. Yes, indeed, under ten minutes away from

0:26:33.720 --> 0:26:36.080
<v Speaker 1>the market closed on this Thursday, November four, Looking like

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:38.840
<v Speaker 1>we're headed for another record on SMP five hundred, higher

0:26:38.840 --> 0:26:41.760
<v Speaker 1>by three tenths of one per cent. Right now, let's

0:26:41.840 --> 0:26:44.520
<v Speaker 1>drive to the close with Eddie Perkin, Chief Equity Investment

0:26:44.560 --> 0:26:47.399
<v Speaker 1>Officer for Equity Eddie and Vance joining us on the

0:26:47.400 --> 0:26:50.159
<v Speaker 1>phone from Boston. Eddie, how are you good to be

0:26:50.240 --> 0:26:52.679
<v Speaker 1>with you? Hey? Help us make sense of of what

0:26:52.760 --> 0:26:55.240
<v Speaker 1>exactly is happening in the markets right now. It sort

0:26:55.240 --> 0:26:57.480
<v Speaker 1>of seems like, based on what we saw yesterday in

0:26:57.480 --> 0:27:00.440
<v Speaker 1>the bond market, in the equity market, Wealth Chair Power

0:27:00.600 --> 0:27:03.520
<v Speaker 1>was speaking while that release came out that everything was

0:27:03.640 --> 0:27:07.359
<v Speaker 1>kind of perfectly communicated by the FED. Yeah, you know,

0:27:07.400 --> 0:27:11.040
<v Speaker 1>I do. I do my best lateral thinking when I'm exercising,

0:27:11.080 --> 0:27:13.440
<v Speaker 1>and I was in the gym yesterday thinking about Matilda.

0:27:13.520 --> 0:27:17.480
<v Speaker 1>Matilda is the world doll book from canad eight made

0:27:17.480 --> 0:27:19.919
<v Speaker 1>into a movie by Danny DeVito and ninety six, and

0:27:20.359 --> 0:27:24.440
<v Speaker 1>the girl, the title character in that has telekinetic powers

0:27:24.480 --> 0:27:27.159
<v Speaker 1>that she can control objects. And I just thought, this

0:27:27.200 --> 0:27:29.119
<v Speaker 1>is what the Fed's trying to do with the economy.

0:27:29.160 --> 0:27:32.840
<v Speaker 1>They have this Matilda envy where they're trying to control

0:27:32.960 --> 0:27:35.800
<v Speaker 1>every element of what's going on. It's such a complex

0:27:36.240 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 1>adaptive system the the economy that I think there's a

0:27:39.320 --> 0:27:42.359
<v Speaker 1>level of Huberts there that's concerning. And I think investors

0:27:43.000 --> 0:27:46.520
<v Speaker 1>have a form of Stockholm syndrome where they're um happy

0:27:46.560 --> 0:27:50.800
<v Speaker 1>to be Fed. Uh, this very explicit um direction of

0:27:50.840 --> 0:27:53.160
<v Speaker 1>how the economy is going to go from uh from

0:27:53.240 --> 0:27:55.280
<v Speaker 1>Chairman Powell, and the said and I worry about that

0:27:55.280 --> 0:27:57.880
<v Speaker 1>a little bit because I don't think you can control

0:27:58.000 --> 0:28:01.520
<v Speaker 1>something like the economy with that level of decision. Well, Eddie,

0:28:01.560 --> 0:28:04.840
<v Speaker 1>one one message that chair Pal really is trying to

0:28:04.880 --> 0:28:08.639
<v Speaker 1>control is that he's really trying to separate the tapering

0:28:08.760 --> 0:28:13.600
<v Speaker 1>timeline from the rate hikes schedule that okay, pretty quick

0:28:13.680 --> 0:28:17.240
<v Speaker 1>taper planned of their bond purchase program. Uh. He's trying

0:28:17.280 --> 0:28:19.720
<v Speaker 1>to drive home the point that that doesn't imply any

0:28:19.760 --> 0:28:22.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of timeline for the rate hike schedule. Do you

0:28:22.320 --> 0:28:25.440
<v Speaker 1>believe him? And does the market believe him? I don't

0:28:25.440 --> 0:28:28.040
<v Speaker 1>believe him, and the market definitely does not believe him.

0:28:28.080 --> 0:28:31.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you look at the futures curve for FED

0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:34.440
<v Speaker 1>funds to futures, and it's between two and three rate

0:28:34.520 --> 0:28:37.840
<v Speaker 1>hikes in two. Given where inflation is running right now,

0:28:37.840 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 1>it's hard to imagine they'll be able to taper without

0:28:40.840 --> 0:28:43.640
<v Speaker 1>raising rates. Goldman was out with a call earlier in

0:28:43.680 --> 0:28:45.640
<v Speaker 1>the week that they think there'll be two rate hikes

0:28:45.640 --> 0:28:47.400
<v Speaker 1>in two. I mean, it could end up being more

0:28:47.400 --> 0:28:50.080
<v Speaker 1>than that. It was always it was people like Bill Bedley,

0:28:50.160 --> 0:28:54.080
<v Speaker 1>former New York uh head of the New York Fed,

0:28:54.160 --> 0:28:56.760
<v Speaker 1>that who said that once they do start raising rates

0:28:56.800 --> 0:28:58.920
<v Speaker 1>will have if you if you wait longer than you should,

0:28:58.920 --> 0:29:00.920
<v Speaker 1>then you're gonna have to raise it's by more than

0:29:00.960 --> 0:29:05.480
<v Speaker 1>you originally intended. So UM, I do think rate hikes

0:29:05.480 --> 0:29:08.600
<v Speaker 1>are coming, and I think the equity market UM probably

0:29:08.640 --> 0:29:11.080
<v Speaker 1>won't take that well. I mean, like we said a

0:29:11.160 --> 0:29:14.560
<v Speaker 1>moment ago, the equity market investors, I think are happy

0:29:14.600 --> 0:29:17.960
<v Speaker 1>to be spoon fed this talk from from the Fed.

0:29:18.040 --> 0:29:20.720
<v Speaker 1>But once rates start going up, that's usually not good

0:29:20.720 --> 0:29:22.640
<v Speaker 1>for equity prices. So what's the best way to be

0:29:22.680 --> 0:29:26.200
<v Speaker 1>positioned here? I think you need an element of defensiveness.

0:29:26.240 --> 0:29:28.520
<v Speaker 1>My favorite sector right now is consumer staples. I think

0:29:28.560 --> 0:29:30.920
<v Speaker 1>they for the most part, not every company in that sector,

0:29:30.960 --> 0:29:33.760
<v Speaker 1>but many have strong brand, strong pricing power, so as

0:29:33.800 --> 0:29:36.440
<v Speaker 1>some of the input costs freight cost pressures move higher,

0:29:37.040 --> 0:29:39.080
<v Speaker 1>they can pass that through to their customers and still

0:29:39.120 --> 0:29:41.719
<v Speaker 1>maintain good margins. And then I think commodities are going

0:29:41.760 --> 0:29:45.480
<v Speaker 1>to be beneficiaries of inflation. So oil, which everybody hates

0:29:45.520 --> 0:29:47.720
<v Speaker 1>for all kinds of reasons, it's been the best performing

0:29:47.760 --> 0:29:50.880
<v Speaker 1>sector this year and I think it continues to move higher. Um,

0:29:50.960 --> 0:29:53.560
<v Speaker 1>you look at where, uh, the energy sector in the

0:29:53.600 --> 0:29:55.880
<v Speaker 1>SMP right now is about two point eight percent of

0:29:55.920 --> 0:29:58.760
<v Speaker 1>the index. If you go back to two thousand seven,

0:29:58.880 --> 0:30:01.720
<v Speaker 1>two thousand eight, when the oil price was around the

0:30:01.760 --> 0:30:04.680
<v Speaker 1>same level it is now, it was eleven percent of

0:30:04.760 --> 0:30:07.200
<v Speaker 1>the SMP. So, Um, there's a long way to go

0:30:07.320 --> 0:30:10.080
<v Speaker 1>to get back to where we've been historically on energy

0:30:10.120 --> 0:30:13.080
<v Speaker 1>and it's a contribution to the global economy. And so Eddie,

0:30:13.120 --> 0:30:16.080
<v Speaker 1>you are the chief investment officer for equity, but I

0:30:16.080 --> 0:30:18.640
<v Speaker 1>want to hear how you factor in the bond market.

0:30:18.680 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 1>If I think back to the beginning of this week,

0:30:20.800 --> 0:30:23.520
<v Speaker 1>there was a lot of consternation about the fact that

0:30:23.880 --> 0:30:26.840
<v Speaker 1>actually bond volatility it's pretty high right now. If you

0:30:26.840 --> 0:30:29.440
<v Speaker 1>look at the move Index, especially compared to the VIX,

0:30:29.480 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 1>which has basically been sleep walking. I mean, what signal

0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:36.120
<v Speaker 1>do you take from that. It's always a little bit

0:30:36.120 --> 0:30:39.960
<v Speaker 1>concerning when different asset classes are telling different stories. Particularly

0:30:40.000 --> 0:30:43.000
<v Speaker 1>as an equity investor, we get concerned when hi high

0:30:43.040 --> 0:30:45.120
<v Speaker 1>yield spreads widen out. You're not talking about that, You're

0:30:45.120 --> 0:30:48.480
<v Speaker 1>talking about rates. But um, uh, you know, you look

0:30:48.480 --> 0:30:50.600
<v Speaker 1>at what's happened in Australia, where the front end of

0:30:50.600 --> 0:30:54.080
<v Speaker 1>the curves has moved up significantly in the last month,

0:30:54.320 --> 0:30:57.040
<v Speaker 1>and you say, you know, maybe maybe the bond market

0:30:57.080 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 1>is starting to get a whiff of higher rates, higher inflation.

0:31:00.200 --> 0:31:02.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm still not convinced the long end of the curve

0:31:02.840 --> 0:31:05.160
<v Speaker 1>has to move as high as everyone seems to think.

0:31:05.160 --> 0:31:08.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, most investors are convinced that the long end

0:31:08.320 --> 0:31:11.160
<v Speaker 1>long treasuries have to have to go higher if you've

0:31:11.200 --> 0:31:13.959
<v Speaker 1>got inflation. But people have been making that call for

0:31:14.040 --> 0:31:15.680
<v Speaker 1>ten or fifteen years and it's been wrong. So I

0:31:15.720 --> 0:31:17.680
<v Speaker 1>think you've got to respect the market a little bit

0:31:17.720 --> 0:31:20.440
<v Speaker 1>and maybe you get inflation without the big move in

0:31:20.680 --> 0:31:24.520
<v Speaker 1>government bond deals. M Okay, let's talk earnings, because we

0:31:24.560 --> 0:31:26.000
<v Speaker 1>are in the midst of earning season and we are

0:31:26.000 --> 0:31:29.560
<v Speaker 1>expecting certainly a slew of them after the bell E Speedy, Airbnb,

0:31:29.680 --> 0:31:32.800
<v Speaker 1>uper Pelton, Pinterest, carbon A, Live Nation, Novavaccine, Square, just

0:31:32.960 --> 0:31:35.239
<v Speaker 1>to name a few. What is the pattern that has

0:31:35.280 --> 0:31:37.200
<v Speaker 1>emerged when it comes to equity, When it comes to

0:31:37.240 --> 0:31:39.520
<v Speaker 1>earnings from the S and P five companies that we

0:31:39.520 --> 0:31:43.360
<v Speaker 1>follow so closely, it's been a good earning season. After

0:31:43.440 --> 0:31:45.960
<v Speaker 1>today will probably be about eighty five percent done in

0:31:46.080 --> 0:31:49.000
<v Speaker 1>terms of the market cap that has reported. Uh, it's

0:31:49.160 --> 0:31:52.040
<v Speaker 1>most companies have beat. In the US, companies stan really

0:31:52.040 --> 0:31:54.600
<v Speaker 1>beat because they're very good at guiding conservatively so that

0:31:54.600 --> 0:31:57.400
<v Speaker 1>they can beat UM. The interesting thing though, is the

0:31:57.440 --> 0:32:00.000
<v Speaker 1>reaction of the market has been a little more mute

0:32:00.000 --> 0:32:02.160
<v Speaker 1>did then in the past. So unless companies have been

0:32:02.200 --> 0:32:08.040
<v Speaker 1>on both earnings and revenues they have, they've generally underperformed

0:32:08.040 --> 0:32:10.400
<v Speaker 1>on the day of their earnings reports. So the market

0:32:10.440 --> 0:32:12.280
<v Speaker 1>has been very strong over the past months while company

0:32:12.280 --> 0:32:15.880
<v Speaker 1>has been reporting, but the specific individual companies that have

0:32:15.960 --> 0:32:19.800
<v Speaker 1>reported have generally been met with at least a one

0:32:19.880 --> 0:32:25.040
<v Speaker 1>day underperformance unless they've they've really blown numbers away. And

0:32:25.240 --> 0:32:27.480
<v Speaker 1>how do you feel about big tech right now? Because

0:32:27.480 --> 0:32:30.760
<v Speaker 1>thinking about the earning season ongoing, but I'm thinking about

0:32:31.040 --> 0:32:35.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, Apple, Amazon, UH, disappointing on that front. It

0:32:35.280 --> 0:32:38.040
<v Speaker 1>feels like it's been a tough go for the things.

0:32:38.120 --> 0:32:40.959
<v Speaker 1>How are you thinking about that group? I think there

0:32:40.960 --> 0:32:42.680
<v Speaker 1>are better opportunities in the market. I mean, those are

0:32:42.720 --> 0:32:46.240
<v Speaker 1>all great companies obviously, but they're so well represented in

0:32:46.280 --> 0:32:48.720
<v Speaker 1>the SMP in terms of their their market cap that

0:32:48.800 --> 0:32:50.800
<v Speaker 1>they're you know, every time people put money into an

0:32:50.800 --> 0:32:53.440
<v Speaker 1>index fund. They're buying those stocks. I think, you know,

0:32:53.480 --> 0:32:56.960
<v Speaker 1>some of them are somewhat expensive despite being great companies.

0:32:57.280 --> 0:33:00.200
<v Speaker 1>I do think, uh uh, you know, they are things

0:33:00.240 --> 0:33:03.760
<v Speaker 1>that have have pricing power, have growth, and so um,

0:33:03.800 --> 0:33:05.640
<v Speaker 1>they're they're good companies, but I think there's a better

0:33:05.640 --> 0:33:09.080
<v Speaker 1>opportunity elsewhere from the evaluation perspective. Eddie Perkin, We're gonna

0:33:09.120 --> 0:33:11.880
<v Speaker 1>have to leave it. Their chief investment officer for equity yet,

0:33:11.880 --> 0:33:13.960
<v Speaker 1>Eaton Vance joining us on the phone from Boston. Eddie,

0:33:13.960 --> 0:33:15.640
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for taking the time and joining us

0:33:15.680 --> 0:33:20.760
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Business Week. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:33:20.880 --> 0:33:24.360
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:33:24.480 --> 0:33:26.160
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0:33:26.160 --> 0:33:28.760
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0:33:28.800 --> 0:33:30.840
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