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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman on today's podcast, NFL Free Agency,

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Speaker 1: Not the coronavirus. Not the coronavirus is impact on sports betting?

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Speaker 1: My guest is already giggling, just straight free agency grading

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Speaker 1: the signings. Which signing will lead the great bets? Barnewell,

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Speaker 1: you can't laugh yet. Which signings will lead to great performances,

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Speaker 1: which will lead to great player props? Which sign has

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Speaker 1: got a lot of public not great at all? Joined

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Speaker 1: me to break it all down, as if I've given

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Speaker 1: it away. The King of Chart Beats ESPN dot COM's

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Speaker 1: lead football analyst, a man who has studied more film

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Speaker 1: than Roger Ebert. Mr Bill Barnwell, how you doing, buddy? Hi?

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Speaker 1: Can I get King of Chart Beat on my resume

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Speaker 1: or business card? If that would be very lucrative for me,

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Speaker 1: if I were actually the King of chart Beating. It's

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Speaker 1: a very inside oak for anyone who follows media and

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Speaker 1: knows what sharpeat is Charpie. It is a analytics platform

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Speaker 1: that ESPN uses in a lot of sort of large

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Speaker 1: media websites use to understand real time traffic to your

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Speaker 1: site and Whenever a story of Barne Walls would get posted,

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Speaker 1: usually Monday mornings or Monday afternoons on ESPN dot com,

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Speaker 1: Charpie would explode because the entire world is reading Bill

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Speaker 1: Barnwell's story. So if you got that, you could have

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Speaker 1: a nameplate. I know you you live with your girlfriend.

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Speaker 1: Maybe she can have it made for you. That could

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Speaker 1: be something exciting. I could be gift. Why not a

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Speaker 1: clown at some point, I'm not going outside for a while.

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Speaker 1: You're quarantined. You can get anything you want, just haven't

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Speaker 1: made it home. I'll get my Trudy printer right on it. No,

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Speaker 1: I wish I had one. Maybe you could get it

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Speaker 1: just to make yourself a crown exactly. See now we're thinking,

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Speaker 1: explain to people why you're quarantining yourself. Okay. So I

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Speaker 1: was originally supposed to go to Paris last week from

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Speaker 1: New York. Our dog sitter is in New Jersey because

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Speaker 1: we used them and when we both live in New

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Speaker 1: York and love the dog sitter, so we drive to

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Speaker 1: New York drop off the dog and originally going to Paris.

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Speaker 1: That got canceled because Paris was not yet at the

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Speaker 1: point of being shut down. But it was on the way,

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Speaker 1: so we changed our trip to go to Austin, Texas,

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Speaker 1: because we said, oh, you know, we both love Austin

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Speaker 1: south by south lest got canceled. It's a real bummer,

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Speaker 1: you know, and hurt the economy there. So let's go

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Speaker 1: support you know, the businesses in Austin and don't see

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Speaker 1: some friends in Austin. That was our second plan. And

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Speaker 1: then we had a couple of days in New York

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Speaker 1: before dripped Austin, and over those couple of days it

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Speaker 1: became quite clear and no, we're not going to be

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Speaker 1: traveling too often or anywhere. We're going to be going

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Speaker 1: straight home. So we you know, rented a car, picked

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Speaker 1: up our dog, drove back to Washington where I live,

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Speaker 1: and that was that. But that was less than fourteen

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Speaker 1: days ago, and we were in New York. So we

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Speaker 1: are currently self quarantining where I am. Honestly, it's not

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Speaker 1: that much different this week. I would be sitting here

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Speaker 1: grading things anyway, Like I am one of the least

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Speaker 1: affected people by this quarantine and by the isolation period

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Speaker 1: here in America, because I would just be sitting on

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Speaker 1: my couch eating things typically anyway, I don't mind social distancing.

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Speaker 1: Honest to god, it really is like one of those

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Speaker 1: things where seth Wickersham front of both of ours. He

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Speaker 1: just came over to my house and we had a

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Speaker 1: catch up. He stood in the driveway and I stood

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Speaker 1: twenty ft away on my front steps, and I didn't

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Speaker 1: mind it at all. It's the first person I've honestly

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Speaker 1: seen in about ten days outside of my It's great,

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Speaker 1: it's not It's really not that bad. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: obviously you know, the other thirstoff was awful. But the

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Speaker 1: thing we can do to help is remarkably easy in

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Speaker 1: terms of just staying put and not seeing other people.

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Speaker 1: I can just text people. I've had some phone calls.

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Speaker 1: It's fantastic. All right, Bill, your social quarantine is going

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Speaker 1: to be our game because the more you're grading, the

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Speaker 1: more content you put out. Let's get to the main thing.

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Speaker 1: The main thing. I went through your entire file of

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Speaker 1: grading offseason moves, the entire file going back to February.

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Speaker 1: It is massive, It is comprehensive, and I have no

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Speaker 1: doubt that everybody has looked at it. But if they haven't,

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Speaker 1: they have to because it is full of gems like this.

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Speaker 1: I made a note of this because I thought it

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Speaker 1: was so funny giving the Jets a D minus for

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Speaker 1: signing George Fant to a thirty year, thirty million dollar deal.

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Speaker 1: This was your life. The Jets desperately need offensive linemen

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Speaker 1: to try to protect Sam Donald, but I'm not entirely

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Speaker 1: sure Fant is one m D minus George Fant, you know.

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Speaker 1: And it's funny because I have been really positive mostly

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Speaker 1: about the Jets move this offseason. It's like, the one

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Speaker 1: really negative criticism I've had of the Jets is that

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Speaker 1: Fan deal. Um, this is the guy who's a basketball player.

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Speaker 1: George Fan is a guy who, you know what, a

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Speaker 1: spot starter for the Seahawks started one year at left tackle.

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Speaker 1: Him was pretty widely criticized, almost sudden that way of all, Well,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't even belong out there because he's a basketball

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Speaker 1: player being pushed to play left tackle for poor Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 1: Then he stat for pretty much three years outside if

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Speaker 1: a few spots starts here and there, toroth a c

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Speaker 1: L and it's now getting paid by the Jets, probably

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Speaker 1: to be Sam Donald starting left tackle unless they draft

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Speaker 1: a guy to play left tackle, which is you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're trying to evaluate Sam Donald if you want to,

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Speaker 1: you know, believe in Sam Donald, if you want to

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Speaker 1: play Sam Donald in fantasy football or daily fantasy football.

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Speaker 1: Having a theoretical left tackle, maybe a a arbitrary left tackle.

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Speaker 1: It seems very bad if you are counting on Sam

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Speaker 1: Donald in any way. I counted two A grades, one

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Speaker 1: A and one A minus. Can you tell me who

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Speaker 1: got the two ways that I'm talking about? I can

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Speaker 1: Philip Rivers got an A and Brian Pool of the

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Speaker 1: Jet Scott in A. No, No, that's not what I saw.

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Speaker 1: Do you see Philip Rivers got a B plus, Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady got an A. Drew Brees got an A minus.

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Speaker 1: Oh Drew Brees? Yes, excuse me, I'm sorry. I know

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Speaker 1: your material better than you. Barnewell, she do. Let's not

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Speaker 1: out of the question effort. In ninety nine of these

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Speaker 1: so far, they tend to blur together at this point.

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Speaker 1: I'm a tough grader, and I think that's born out

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Speaker 1: by when you get the history of NFL free agency,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty bad. I mean, think about again, let's go

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Speaker 1: with the Jets. How many people were lauding the Jets

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Speaker 1: for signing Levy on Bell C. J. Mosley Jamison Crowder

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Speaker 1: year before, it was Trueman Johnson. They almost signed Anthony Barr.

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Speaker 1: How many of those moves panned out for the Jets? Zero?

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Speaker 1: That's not good, And that's a lot of those are

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Speaker 1: the best guys. If those are the best players, imagine

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Speaker 1: what the kind of okay players are doing. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: could someone give five or six more A grades? Yeah, sure,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be you know, that big of a difference

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Speaker 1: between a B plus or B and A or an

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Speaker 1: A minus. But I tend to think these things don't

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Speaker 1: really work out. It's not the best way to build

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Speaker 1: a football team. So I'm gonna be kind of harsh.

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Speaker 1: I think a C plus for me is sort of

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Speaker 1: an average grade, and I think some people take that

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Speaker 1: as a negative. So why did you give Brady? I mean,

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Speaker 1: start with the off field stuff, right, you know, Brady

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Speaker 1: in the selfias and tickets. They're gonna sell a billion

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Speaker 1: Brady jerseys, both the current jersey, the cream stickle jersey,

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Speaker 1: whatever jersey Tom Brady is wearing. They're gonna sell a million. Know. Um,

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Speaker 1: They're gonna sort of solidify that franchise in Florida for

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Speaker 1: years to come. Even if Brady just plays. Okay, if

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Speaker 1: he plays great, that's gonna story altogether. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: you get to sign a to me, a viable, above

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Speaker 1: average starting quarterback, even given his flip last year, for cash.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to trade a draft pick, where you

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Speaker 1: don't have to do up a first round pick. You

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Speaker 1: don't have to do anything besides just pay money, which honestly,

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Speaker 1: the Tom Brady contract is not that onerous. You're guaranteeing

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Speaker 1: two years, which you know could tye aren't poorly I suppose,

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Speaker 1: But for a guy who, again I think with those weapons,

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Speaker 1: with maybe one more additional on the offensive line, will

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Speaker 1: have one of the best cores of talent around him

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Speaker 1: in football, I think this is just an easy signing.

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Speaker 1: I think you do this even if it fails, even

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Speaker 1: given the possibility of fails. I think you make this

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Speaker 1: move ten out of ten times. And there's not a

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Speaker 1: lot of moves you can say that about in this

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Speaker 1: free eging period. It's interesting you described you describe Brady

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Speaker 1: as a viable quarterback, which is obviously not the perception.

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Speaker 1: Even if even if everyone realizes he's not going to

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Speaker 1: be the same guy who was ten twelve years ago,

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Speaker 1: what when you see Brady right now, What do you see?

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Speaker 1: I see a guy who has the arm strength, has

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Speaker 1: not lost a ton of arms fact that was never

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Speaker 1: really like the core of his game. But a guy

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Speaker 1: who can still make throws, a guy who still has

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Speaker 1: the instincts, the guy who is physically capable of holding up,

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Speaker 1: who's not getting injured or banged up or you know,

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Speaker 1: not losing a bunch of his arm strength during the season,

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Speaker 1: which we see with a lot of older quarterbacks who

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Speaker 1: do kind of lose it in their final couple of

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Speaker 1: years of being paid, and Manning being a good recent

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Speaker 1: example Brett Farve as well, where Brett Farve never got

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Speaker 1: hurt and then suddenly in his final year did get injured. Um,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing Brady stay healthy. It's such a good sign.

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Speaker 1: And I think we saw a guy last year who

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Speaker 1: had for most of the year below average offensive tackles,

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Speaker 1: who had the worst tight end situation in football, and

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Speaker 1: who had one wide receiver who was healthy, who he

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Speaker 1: trusted and doing dentlemen for most of the year. And

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Speaker 1: by the end of the season, Edelman was injured, Hamedsonnu

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Speaker 1: was injured. There was still playing, but they were far

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Speaker 1: less than uh and kill Harry was still a rookie.

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Speaker 1: There were so many times last year I think Greg

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Speaker 1: Rosenbaum was the one who pointed this out, where Brady

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Speaker 1: would make throws and it would be to nobody in particular,

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Speaker 1: and he would kind of point at the thought afterwards,

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Speaker 1: you know, saying, hey, you're supposed to be there. And

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, I trust Tom Brady

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Speaker 1: in those situations over his receivers in terms of his

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Speaker 1: knowledge of that offense. So I see a guy who

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Speaker 1: wants to account for those things. Is still playing at

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Speaker 1: a pretty high level. He's not the guy he was

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Speaker 1: three years ago, but I think he's still a guy

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Speaker 1: you can win a Super Bowl. So Bruce arians is

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Speaker 1: the wild card here for me in this because he

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Speaker 1: has so clearly been a bit of a quarterback whisper right,

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Speaker 1: and what he did in Indianapolis that one year when

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Speaker 1: he took over for Chuck Bagano as the coach, and

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Speaker 1: what he did in Arizona to make that team really

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Speaker 1: relevant and competitive. What are you What have you seen

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Speaker 1: with the quarterbacks he coaches that turns them into something special?

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Speaker 1: That Brady could be even better based on his age

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Speaker 1: and sort of his physical skills right now. I think

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Speaker 1: he creates a lot of big plays for his quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: I think he puts them in situations where they have

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Speaker 1: you know, sort of logic progressions, which is not always

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Speaker 1: the case for some quarterbacks. I don't think Josh mc

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Speaker 1: daniels is one of those guys. I think he creates

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Speaker 1: opportunities for big plays with his scheme. Now, the question

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Speaker 1: that I think is most interesting here is, you know

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady when you look through history, the history of

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady is someone who very rarely throws it down

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Speaker 1: the field. He does occasionally, but it's not the core

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Speaker 1: of his game. He wants to get the ball out quickly,

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Speaker 1: let me get the boat accurately, and he wants to

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Speaker 1: move the chain. Bruce Arians just about every single year

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Speaker 1: has been either the number one, number two, or number

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Speaker 1: three coach in the league in terms of how frequently

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Speaker 1: his quarterbacks throw down field. They are you know, it's

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Speaker 1: the no risk at no biscuit offense. That is the saying.

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Speaker 1: That is what they do on offense. They want to

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Speaker 1: get the blood down field for big plays. Now, that

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Speaker 1: sort of collision is going to be interesting because I

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Speaker 1: think Brady has the physical ability to make those throws,

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Speaker 1: but it's not his first choice. He does not want

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Speaker 1: to hang out in the pocket for three or four

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Speaker 1: seconds and take a hit to deliver a big play.

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Speaker 1: So when we get to week one and week two,

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Speaker 1: week three of that offense, is it going to be

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Speaker 1: the Tom Brady Patriots offense where it's all quick game,

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Speaker 1: getting the ball out, you know, immediately, to make easy

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Speaker 1: completions and keep Tom Brady healthy. Or is it going

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Speaker 1: to be the Bruce Arians offensive you know, uh seven

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Speaker 1: step drop and uh you know, coming out of the

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Speaker 1: shotgun and throwing the ball twenty yards downfield once every series.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if one or the other is gonna win.

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Speaker 1: My suspicion is that it's going to be both of

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Speaker 1: those offenses kind of coming together. But if that offense

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Speaker 1: does struggle, I have to think Tom Brady's side is

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Speaker 1: going to win. I don't know what you think. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think it has to because you coach the talent

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Speaker 1: that you have, and you build the system around the

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Speaker 1: talent you have. And well, Mike Evans is amazing, and

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Speaker 1: Chris Godwin came on like gamebusters, especially when Evans was hurt.

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Speaker 1: They can do anything, and Mike Evans certainly is a

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Speaker 1: down the field player. He is a guy you want

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Speaker 1: to get the ball too deep Brady, Like you said,

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Speaker 1: he can still throw the ball if he has to

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Speaker 1: throw up forty yards and can just throw it over

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Speaker 1: the outside shoulder to where Mike Evans has an into space.

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Speaker 1: He'll still be able to do that. Um. But at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, when they need to be successful,

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Speaker 1: when they need that third down conversion, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: Brady finding a scene in the middle of the field,

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Speaker 1: whether whether it's whether it's like to the outside hash

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Speaker 1: or across the middle, just because that's what he's great at,

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Speaker 1: that's what he knows, and he's got more talent than

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Speaker 1: he maybe has ever had at the white opposition with

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Speaker 1: those two guys. M Yeah, And I wouldn't forget about

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Speaker 1: the tight end situation again. Brady had, you know, the

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Speaker 1: worst tight end situation in the league last year bar

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Speaker 1: none to me. And now he gets O. J. Howard

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Speaker 1: and Cameron Braid and those guys are not superstars. And okay,

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Speaker 1: Howard spent last year pretty much building a multi family

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Speaker 1: condominium inside Bruce Arians doghouse. But I kinda figure Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady is going to make those tight ends better, and

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Speaker 1: I think he's going to use them more frequently than

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Speaker 1: Jamis Winston's did. So I can see those guys being

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Speaker 1: pretty underrated right now, given that you know that's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a place Tom Brady looks, I think, far more

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Speaker 1: frequently than Jamis Winston looked outside of the red zone

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Speaker 1: in the year's past. Alright. So the other A that

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Speaker 1: you gave was also in the NFC Cell and the

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Speaker 1: NFC South, which to my mind, will never have any

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Speaker 1: teams that anybody cares about because no one recognizes those logos.

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Speaker 1: And as long as you have a Panther's logo and

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Speaker 1: a Buck's logo like as half of the division, it's

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Speaker 1: never gonna matter. But now they matter just because of

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Speaker 1: their quarterbacks. And the other A that you gave a

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Speaker 1: minus Drew Brees resigning with the Saints. You basically gave

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Speaker 1: the only A grades to the signings of two forty

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Speaker 1: plus quarterbacks. What's your theory there? I think if you

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Speaker 1: look deeper into the creating file, you'll see that a

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Speaker 1: certain Jets cornerback is given to the minus. But that

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Speaker 1: will leave that aside for another day. What I'll talk

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Speaker 1: about Drew Brees is I just think, you know, again

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Speaker 1: sort of similar, you're adding a superstar quarterback at just

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Speaker 1: the cost of some cap space. You're not paying a

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Speaker 1: lot of money. You're not paying him a premium top

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Speaker 1: of the market deal. You are not committing on a

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Speaker 1: long term contract. It's really only a one year deal.

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Speaker 1: That's just easy, you know. I think it's to move

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Speaker 1: that the Saints have to make every single time. And

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Speaker 1: if it's that sort of obvious of the move, I

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Speaker 1: think that earners an a for me. And I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, on my Brady, Drew Brees didn't really seem

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Speaker 1: the slip up and it slip. Last year he had

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Speaker 1: that uh hand injury that cost him I think six games,

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Speaker 1: but because I think five and a half games. But

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Speaker 1: you know, Drew Brees looked great. Otherwise they lost the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that was necessarily Drew Brees as fault.

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Speaker 1: So I think he's positioned, unless he has a Brady

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Speaker 1: s drop off that we can't really anticipate, he's positioned

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Speaker 1: to kind of play at a high level. Again, all right,

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Speaker 1: for the next segment, we're going to bring in Action

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Speaker 1: Network football analysts and your brother in analytics genius Chris

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Speaker 1: Rayvon and he is in love with Kyler Murray. He's

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Speaker 1: in love with the Kyler Murray. Uh. Now to DeAndre Hopkins,

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Speaker 1: you gave one grade of F in your reviews so

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Speaker 1: far for every move that happened since February. Do you

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Speaker 1: know what the F is? The F is the Texan

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Speaker 1: side of the DeAndre Hopkins grade, which is so bad

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Speaker 1: that there were other contracts I thought about giving an

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Speaker 1: F like I wanted to give the Jimmy Graham Bears

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Speaker 1: contract and F. But in comparison, the Jimmy Graham deal,

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Speaker 1: even though it's awful, is so much better. And trading

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Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins in that trade that I can't keep anything

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Speaker 1: else on that. There's just no way to make it fair.

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Speaker 1: It's actually astonishing and no one can figure it out.

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Speaker 1: Here's what I want to know, though, Because the Texans

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Speaker 1: have had so much talent like J. J. Watt, Deshaun Watson,

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Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins, like these are best in class players, right,

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Speaker 1: what is Bill O'Brien so bad at? Everybody hates Bill O'Brien,

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Speaker 1: But when you look at everything, what do you think

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Speaker 1: he is so bad at it? That makes this an

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Speaker 1: impossible team. That makes it impossible for this team to

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Speaker 1: move forward every year because I just think he has

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Speaker 1: no sense of understanding what the market is. It's one

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Speaker 1: thing to not want to resign Jadavian Clowney. I think

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Speaker 1: they probably should have, but if you don't want to,

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Speaker 1: that's your prerogative. I think you can justify not giving

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Speaker 1: him a contract. That's not the issue. The issue is

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Speaker 1: when you see players in his class of Frank Clark

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Speaker 1: or a Defour getting a first time pick a second

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Speaker 1: round pick because they're traded at a point when it

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Speaker 1: makes sense to make those trades. It's supposed to holding

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Speaker 1: on to a player until the last possible second, hoping

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Speaker 1: he's going to, you know, give in, and then trading

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Speaker 1: him for a third round pick and two backup linebackers

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Speaker 1: when he doesn't. With the Hopkins trade, it's not necessarily

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Speaker 1: trading DeAndre Hopkins, I think it's a bad idea, but

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Speaker 1: trading him for a second round pick and a running

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Speaker 1: back whose contract is underwater in David Johnson, who probably

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Speaker 1: detection should have got, you know, received a fourth round

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Speaker 1: pick just to get it done. His contract off the

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Speaker 1: Cardinals books to not understand the the value of the

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Speaker 1: players who are trading. I think is unforgivable because it's

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Speaker 1: just this is a team that if you had kept

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Speaker 1: that core together, I think they are a championship caliber

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Speaker 1: core of of talent. Now they have to all stay healthy.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't necessarily work out. But you have this coach who

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Speaker 1: sort of you know, through different means grass power of

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Speaker 1: the general manager position, and who is running a team

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Speaker 1: worse than probably the worst coach in your fantasy football league.

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Speaker 1: I mean, making trade that that would be rejected. Like

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Speaker 1: I think I talked about this with what Scott been

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Speaker 1: held before we've taped the Sports Center. If you had

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Speaker 1: a choice between that like Bill O'Brien and your fantasy league,

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Speaker 1: or the guy who forgets that his lineups three times

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Speaker 1: this season, you would choose the guy who forgets instead

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Speaker 1: of lab because at least he's not ruining other teams

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Speaker 1: by making crazy trades like it is. It's just you

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Speaker 1: have to have some level of credibility and some level

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Speaker 1: of authority, and when every other person who is a

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Speaker 1: fan of your team or who looks at your team

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Speaker 1: is sitting here saying they can't understand the trade you're making,

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Speaker 1: I think it really kind of asserts that the idea

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Speaker 1: that you're football man and your experience early cuts at

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Speaker 1: the core of just how little Bill O'Brien knows what

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Speaker 1: he's doing when it comes to the GM job. As

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Speaker 1: a fan, it kind of bums me out because I

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Speaker 1: look at Deshaun Watson, I look at J. J. Watt,

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Speaker 1: and those are guys who, to me become really sympathetic

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Speaker 1: figures because their crimes are going to be lost to BA.

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Speaker 1: I think J. J. Watts prime is already lost, but

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Speaker 1: their primes have been lost to bad coaching and talent mismanagement.

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Speaker 1: And as a fan, it is incredibly frustrating. I want

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Speaker 1: to hn Watson too. Wins so bad and I think,

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Speaker 1: when you look at this, how much does this hurt

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Speaker 1: his development? Oh? I mean it's it's, you know, astronomical,

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Speaker 1: because not only is it trading DeAndre Hopkins and replacing

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Speaker 1: him with a terrible Randall Cobb contract, it's also you know,

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Speaker 1: they've traded in multiple first round picks away. He's not

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Speaker 1: gonna get the healthy needs in the drafting years to come.

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Speaker 1: But the whole infrastructure is broken. I mean, it's like

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Speaker 1: trying to win a car race on a road that

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Speaker 1: has potholes every ten feet that are gonna swallow your car.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you can maybe get away with it, but

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Speaker 1: you much rather have a smooth you know, a smooth

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Speaker 1: patent to drive on. And I don't trust Bill O'Brien

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Speaker 1: to to smooth over those holes or fill those holes

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Speaker 1: with anything besides trading future draft picks away. All right,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna come back for another segment and a second,

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Speaker 1: but first, my favorite long islander a man who runs

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Speaker 1: once ran for mayor of his hometown, but blew off

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Speaker 1: the debate to go to Lallapaloos, a true story. Michael

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Speaker 1: Lieboff is coming at us with another charming gambling story.

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Speaker 1: If you've been on tennis, you know how frustrating it

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Speaker 1: can be when a player retires from a match, meaning

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Speaker 1: he's hurt and needs to quit the match in the

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Speaker 1: middle of it. Some books will grade retirements as losses

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Speaker 1: for the injured players, some will grade them as pushes,

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Speaker 1: and some it depends on if a full set has

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Speaker 1: been completed. The rules are all over the place. For

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Speaker 1: my particular book that I was betting on back in

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Speaker 1: the two thousand eighteen US Open, the rule was if

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Speaker 1: a player retires no matter how close it was the

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Speaker 1: end of the match, the bet would be graded as

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Speaker 1: a push. Sometimes that would be good and sometimes that

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Speaker 1: would be bad. I swear that I've been bit by

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Speaker 1: that rule more often than I've been aided. Anyways, we

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Speaker 1: go to the two eighteen US Open and I have

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Speaker 1: a bet on Paolo Lorenzi versus Kyle edmund Lorenzi was

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Speaker 1: about seven and a half to one, and I would

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Speaker 1: be in attendance for this match. If you've ever been

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Speaker 1: to the US Open, you know this, but if you haven't,

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Speaker 1: you should check it out. It's an amazing place to

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Speaker 1: be a better or be a fan if you love tennis,

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Speaker 1: especially in the first ball rounds, because the way the

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Speaker 1: tournament is set up, there all these little side courts

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Speaker 1: and you can get so close to the action. So

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Speaker 1: we go to find the side court for Lorenzi versus Edmunds.

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Speaker 1: By the time we get there, Lorenzi is down a set,

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Speaker 1: but he looks like he's gonna win the second set,

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Speaker 1: which he does, and I'm pumped. I'm in this little

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Speaker 1: corner with my buddy and we're cheering for Lorenzi big time,

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Speaker 1: and it is bloody hot out there. The sun is

428
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 1: beating out on you. There's nowhere to really escape the heat.

429
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 1: That's when I started to notice, oh Man, and Edmunds

430
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,640
Speaker 1: looks like he's struggling a bit. Lorenzi starts wiping him,

431
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 1: just beating him handily. He goes up two sets to one,

432
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 1: and he's limping everywhere. And at that point I realized

433
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 1: I need to start rooting against Lorenzi because Edmund looks

434
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 1: like he's going to retire, and if that happens, my

435
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 1: seven and a half to one surefire winner just goes

436
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 1: up in flames. So with Edmund kind of hobbling around

437
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,880
Speaker 1: the court, I took it upon myself to really motivate

438
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 1: him to stay in this match. So me and my

439
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: friend we start cheering hard for Edmund. We're telling him

440
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 1: to dig deep and to not give up, and basically

441
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 1: giving him a sp speech about why he should stay

442
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 1: in the machine. It's bad to give up, even as

443
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 1: hard hurt as he is. The fans are here to

444
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 1: see you, Kyle, don't give up. And he hung in there.

445
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 1: Not only did he lose with the class of a

446
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 1: British warrior, but he want me some good scratch and

447
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 1: because of his heart and his grit. Kyle Edmond and me,

448
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 1: you know we're good for life like that guy could

449
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 1: do no wrong. In my book, He's a true warrior

450
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 1: and a true sportsman. Thank you, Kyle. Okay, we're back.

451
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 1: It's time for the next thing. The next thing for

452
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 1: this we are going gambling heavy and I want to

453
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 1: bring in Action Network senior football analyst Chris Raybon to

454
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 1: join me and Bill Raybon. Bill gave the Tom Brady

455
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,959
Speaker 1: signing and A. He gave it an A. It's one

456
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 1: of two ways he gave out. The odds for the

457
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 1: Bucks to win the Super Bowl went from fifty to one,

458
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 1: which only five to one. Good bet or bad bet.

459
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,439
Speaker 1: First of all, thanks for having me, guys. I enjoyed

460
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 1: UH being a fly on the wall. To the earlier conversation,

461
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 1: I would say that it's a solid bet for the

462
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 1: last since they started recording d v o A, you

463
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 1: can look at the year end d v o A

464
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: results and essentially a wominate all the teams that don't

465
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,400
Speaker 1: really have a shot at winning the Super Bowl just

466
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 1: by looking at UH. Their overall ranking, it's usually thirteen

467
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 1: or higher over the teams, and then they've they've had

468
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,640
Speaker 1: to have that we stay top eight finished in one

469
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 1: of the three phases, and interestingly enough, the Bucks just

470
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 1: miss out on that cut off for for thirteen, so

471
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 1: they're right at fourteen and they just you know, they

472
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 1: just sneak in um with their with the you know,

473
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 1: in one of the phases. So it's tough. It's it's

474
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 1: it's not it's not something where I would say, don't

475
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,439
Speaker 1: bet on them, and I could definitely see uh, you know,

476
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 1: Tom Brady weeding this team to the top of the NFC.

477
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 1: I think a better bet would be for were the

478
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 1: conference because I think the a f C is a

479
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 1: to me anyway, it just looks like a lot stronger

480
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 1: of a conference at the top with the Kansas City

481
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 1: Chiefs the Baltimore Ravens, So I would bet on them

482
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 1: to win the NFC rather than going all the way.

483
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: Thoughts on that, Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, obviously,

484
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 1: I think the biggest concern for the Bucks is not necessarily, uh,

485
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 1: their level of talent, but I think it's the Saints

486
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 1: being positioned in the same division. If it's just a

487
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 1: dominant team, I think that might take a step backwards.

488
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 1: Us You're a little bit but still a team that

489
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 1: you would expect to make the playoffs even if Drew

490
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 1: Brees gets hurt for a chunk of the season, because

491
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 1: that's what happened last year. Um, maybe that's a little

492
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 1: too short sighted, but the Bucks defense is incredibly underrated.

493
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 1: To Chris's point, they were fifth in defensive dvo A

494
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 1: last year, so when you see they're raw numbers, they

495
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 1: look awful. By the raw numbers, it was because James

496
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 1: Winston through a ton of pick sixes and put them

497
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 1: in a ton of bad situations with turnovers. So this

498
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: is already a very legit defense. It was really the

499
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: offense and the specialty teams that held the Bucks back

500
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 1: last year. So you would figure an improvement from the

501
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,719
Speaker 1: offensive break us and have to be necessarily the two

502
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 1: thousand seven Patriots. But I think there are a playoff

503
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,159
Speaker 1: team at the very least to me, so, um, you know,

504
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: if you can get it would probably what twelve to

505
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 1: one or so for them to win the NFC. Uh,

506
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 1: that's hardly out of the question to me. By the way,

507
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: the total on raybun King Geek mentioning d v o

508
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 1: A was about point was about point five seconds. Somehow,

509
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 1: somehow we even managed to go under in that particular bet. Bill.

510
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 1: Here's what I love about getting you guys together. You

511
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 1: lived in Vegas for a year, you moved there. I

512
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: remember when you moved there when Grantland started, because it

513
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: was the same year I took over as eder in

514
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: chief of the magazine in two thousand eleven. How much

515
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 1: did you know about betting then? And just like summarize

516
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 1: your experiences trying to live in Vegas. You are in

517
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 1: the leading edge of this, right and so trying to

518
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 1: live in Vegas incorporating analytics, trying to think about betting

519
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: on football. What was that experience? Like, I mean, I

520
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: knew nothing, So that was very helpful. I should have

521
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 1: probably learned a little bit more before I actually worked

522
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: my way out there, but you know, just as the

523
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 1: season went on, just figuring out, you know, where there

524
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: might be some some margins for value. I think at

525
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 1: the time the you know, I was looking at the

526
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: uh the teaser value for for you know, moving lines

527
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 1: over the two key numbers of three and seven. And

528
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: before I moved there, I had no idea that that

529
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: made any sense, that was valuable. But by the time

530
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 1: I left, and not only did I know you know

531
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 1: where to or how valuable that could possibly be. But

532
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 1: also which books had at that time still had profitable,

533
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 1: uh you know, profitable odds for those six point teasers.

534
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 1: So that's something that I would not have even occurred

535
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 1: to me before I lived there, But I did end

536
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:47,959
Speaker 1: up figuring out by the time I got there, and

537
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: you know, just I think getting a sense of understanding

538
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: what actually moves lines in terms of injuries and stuff.

539
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,959
Speaker 1: You know, how how how you know how lines can

540
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: be slow to move based on certain things actually towards

541
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 1: the end of the season when you have more injuries

542
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 1: and and things are uh you know, sort of more

543
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: influx when we have guys who might be playing might

544
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: not be playing based on you know how series their

545
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 1: team is about winning. So, you know, I think trying

546
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 1: to find little advantages came to mind for me in

547
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 1: a way that I would not have anticipated before I

548
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 1: got there. But no longer run I mean, you know,

549
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 1: I wasn't by any means, uh, you know, winning at

550
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 1: a high level or close to it. I you know,

551
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:30,199
Speaker 1: I just learned a lot about how people who are

552
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 1: more successful than me approach football and approach the idea

553
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 1: of betting on football. So you guys both. This is

554
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 1: really interesting to me. You guys both saw an angle

555
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 1: where you could use what you understand about analytics to

556
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: analyze football, which has become a massive sort of part

557
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 1: of the way we talk about it. But I also think,

558
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 1: like Raybon, you should talk a little bit about your experience,

559
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: because we certainly haven't talked about it in the podcast,

560
00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 1: much like how you transitioned what you doing in the

561
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 1: past to what you're doing now, and how the numbers

562
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 1: give you credibility because otherwise you're just a dude talking

563
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 1: about football who never played it. Yeah, exactly. So you know,

564
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: for those that don't know, I was. I graduated college

565
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: during the heart of the recession. Came from Syracuse. There were, um,

566
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 1: not a lot of jobs out there. Was lucky enough

567
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 1: to land one do an accounting, but it was so bored,

568
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 1: and every day I would just um, kind of do

569
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 1: fantasy football on the side. And one day I just

570
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: sent a email to Number Fire like vehemiately disagreeing with

571
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: one of their takes um and it was you know,

572
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,360
Speaker 1: wrote him. It was all analytics based. I think their

573
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 1: their take was that a odd Bradshaw um was going

574
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 1: to sink Andrew Lux Fantasy season for some reason which

575
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: made no sense to me whatsoever. On on a you know,

576
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: number of levels, Number one running backs just aren't going

577
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 1: to have that big of an impact period um. And

578
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: so you know whatever, not started writing for free and

579
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: ended up getting into the fantasy industry. And I say

580
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 1: to this day, Chad that you know, even though a

581
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: lot of people are gonna know for you know, fantasy

582
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 1: and the top five accuracy finished, like I to this day,

583
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 1: my number one source of pride I think in this

584
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 1: industry is still maintaining a fifty six percent betting winning

585
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 1: percentage in uh, you know our in an Action network gap.

586
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,479
Speaker 1: Because I think that was something that it just seemed

587
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: very daunting and very challenging. Um from the outside. It

588
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 1: was something I hadn't done a while to build, you know,

589
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 1: I think just like you and you being able to

590
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: kind of put these use these analytics and these numbers

591
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: and and have success, um was really was really a

592
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: source of prise. Do you know what My biggest source

593
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: of prise is betting and every NFL game during this

594
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 1: past NFL season in the Action Network gap uh and

595
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: going one, one, one, twelve and three winning it a

596
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: fifty clip and the majority of what I did was

597
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: just listen to your podcast and then make those bets,

598
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: and so I almost I probably should pay you a commission. Instead,

599
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna take all the money for myself. Question.

600
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 1: It's it's nice, right, That's that's how I lead. Barnewell,

601
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: you may remember that, Um, all you guys do is

602
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: apply analytics to analysis. You've mentioned d v o A,

603
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 1: and like barn and Raybond, you apply a lot of

604
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: it to betting. When you're going through all the data,

605
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: what's working and what doesn't? How do you separate you know,

606
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 1: to quote Nate Silver, this signal from the noise. Barnwell,

607
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 1: you go first, I think just in terms of hyper

608
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 1: specialized in context, you know where I think you have

609
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: those classic things of oh well Andy Dalton or Kirk

610
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: Cousins can't win in prime time and it's like, okay, well,

611
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 1: you know what were those games? Like who are they playing?

612
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: Because typically primetime games are tougher competition. So we just

613
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: you know, if you're adjusting for the competition, does that

614
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 1: really bear out as as you're playing all that poorly?

615
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: You know, and just the small samples of you know,

616
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: this guy's greet at home. This guy's great on the road.

617
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: You know, I think just applying some broader context tool. Okay,

618
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 1: you know, is that true for him in multiple seasons?

619
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 1: Is that true for you know, other players of his position.

620
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,719
Speaker 1: Is that a meaningful split or is that just noise

621
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 1: to your points? I think, you know, just just being

622
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 1: willing to test stuff. I don't think it has to

623
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: be you know, the you don't have to be a

624
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: machine learning algorithm. It doesn't have to be the most

625
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: complex thing, but just in terms of having a quizzical

626
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: mind understanding, you know, Okay, well, here's this trying to

627
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 1: think there's a thing, or here's this trend that I'm

628
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: hearing is a thing? How valuable is it? And then

629
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 1: if other people believe it's the thing, how can I

630
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: you know, possibly you know, put it in context and

631
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 1: make money off of it too, you know, put it

632
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 1: in the appropriate context of it not being a meaningful thing.

633
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 1: It goes right into what Bill said about relevant samples.

634
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 1: And I think the key is thinking in terms of probabilities,

635
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 1: thinking probabilistically. So, uh, if you have a hypothesis or

636
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: something you've tested that's you know, supposed to be right,

637
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 1: seventy percent at a time and it's wrong one or

638
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 1: two times, you know, don't go and write it off

639
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 1: because of you know it went oh for two. You

640
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: know that that's something that's going to happen, even you know,

641
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 1: in the best models that would go seventy five perks.

642
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 1: And I think in the NFL, one of the key

643
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: things for me is always being aware of adjusting for

644
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 1: how the league is changing, because a lot of people

645
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 1: that this happens a lot during draft analysis is people

646
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 1: look at these they take these long term data from

647
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: decades ago and they say, well, uh, wide receiver has

648
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 1: never done X, Y and Z in college and gone

649
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: on to do X y Z in the NFL. And

650
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: it's like, well, in the last five years, the amount

651
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: of routes run by, like the third ride receiver has balloon.

652
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 1: Teams are playing totally different offenses. Uh, you know, guys

653
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 1: are getting on the field. Uh you know, sooner there's there,

654
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: there's x amount more percentage of passes. Completion percentages are

655
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: you know this much higher, interception percentages are this much lower,

656
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: And a lot of people aren't adjusting I think quickly

657
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: enough for some of these trends that have uh kind

658
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 1: of jumped up in the last five and ten years

659
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: since I think since the early part of the decade

660
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 1: when they change when the with the rule changes for

661
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 1: the defensive holding and whatnot, and then kind of going

662
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: forward since then. So that's a big thing for me,

663
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: is just being sure to always kind of keep fresh

664
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: data and not going back too far and being able

665
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 1: to kind of test out when when to kind of

666
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: apply some cutoffs or wait the older data os. It's

667
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 1: like Raybond, I think about your take on Aaron Rodgers

668
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: sort of late in the season and through the playoffs,

669
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,239
Speaker 1: explained to people what your take was because you were

670
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 1: ahead of the curve and that's what the analysis was

671
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: telling you. My Rodgers hot take, I didn't think it

672
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: should have been that hot. But essentially he was a

673
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 1: below average of you know, queerly below average quarterback, had

674
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: been so for a number of years, and um, it

675
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: wasn't because of his supporting cast. It was exacerbated by

676
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: his supporting cast. He was a guy that was willing,

677
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: essentially willing to uh take the safe and conservative completion

678
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 1: over uh, you know, messing up his interception, uh right,

679
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: and it turned the package offense into a very Uh,

680
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 1: you know, below average offense that that team that relied

681
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: on everything else, that relied on a running game, It

682
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 1: relied on a defense that relied on you know, really

683
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 1: good receivers to get by. And once you took those

684
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 1: receivers out, you only the most one. You kind of

685
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: saw the you know what the results of that. You

686
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: saw them get banged by San Francisco, which I mean

687
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 1: I would have put any amount of money on that

688
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: result happening. Um, probably like seventy five times out of

689
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: a hundred, just because there was you just looked up

690
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 1: and down that San Francisco defense and you said, there's

691
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: nowhere Aaron Rodgers is going to move this ball consistently

692
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: if against a team that can get pressure without witzing

693
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: it and use seven coverage. And so that that was

694
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: I didn't think it should have been a hot take,

695
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 1: but you know, name value is so big in the

696
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 1: NFL that it ended up being on the San Francisco forty.

697
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: Niners had a minus twenty five turnover differential, which is

698
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: bad and everyone knows how important turnover differential is. Uh.

699
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 1: They had two interceptions, which is the fewest of any

700
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: team in the NFL history for a sixteen game season

701
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 1: that's also bad and does not seem likely to recur.

702
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 1: So when I'm doing my research before the year, typically

703
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 1: to a column, I read about the five teams most

704
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: likely to improve, the five teams most likely to decline.

705
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: Even in April, I wrote a column July, But even

706
00:33:58,200 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 1: in April I tweeted of lineers, we're going to make

707
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 1: the playoff us if they got a quasi healthy season

708
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 1: from Jimmy Garoppolo. Just because when you look through history,

709
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:09,840
Speaker 1: the team's turnover differential has virtually no predicative value to

710
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 1: the following season. I think you have rare exceptions here

711
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 1: and there, but they get swamped. Teams that are at

712
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:19,240
Speaker 1: the extremes almost always uh dramatically improved. They're turning freerential

713
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 1: if it sucked the year before, or vice versa, if

714
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 1: they had a great turn for durmential, it tends to

715
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: that's off. The Niners had the worst tone over turnover

716
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 1: differential in football, which was extremely likely to improven that

717
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: They've been so many investments in their defense and so

718
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 1: much talent they were adding to their roster, and that

719
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 1: was without D four for most of the year. By

720
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 1: the way, in the long run, I figured going from

721
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: your uh, you know, a third string quarterback. I guess

722
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 1: the combination of Dick Mallinson G. J. Bethard to Jimmy

723
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 1: Garoppolo for probably twelve fourteen games was kind of, my

724
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 1: estimate is a pretty significant upgrade. So the Niners were

725
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 1: available at forty two one to win the Super Bowl

726
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 1: for the year. That was a nice little opportunity. Was

727
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: able to hedge with the Chiefs once they got to

728
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 1: the super Bowl itself, but there was a lot of

729
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 1: opportunity with the Niners to win the division too in

730
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 1: the n C two in the Super Bowl, Niner scooters

731
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 1: were a pretty significant value, even though you know, obviously

732
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: things have gone broken slightly differently, but I think given

733
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: their talent level, level of play, became pretty clear they

734
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: were much better than the market value before the year.

735
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 1: And the biggest reason why was that their turner terreential

736
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 1: was never going to be as bad as it was.

737
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 1: Oh that's good, that's really really good. As an exercise

738
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: to the listener, go try and find the team that

739
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: has a bore stoner friend football in twenty nineteen, and

740
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: then maybe think about that team possibly improving in Well,

741
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 1: why can't you just tell us right now, like when

742
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 1: you look at all the free agency moves, you've graded

743
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 1: every single one of on Raybon has been putting out

744
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 1: more content about how to measure player props and fantasy

745
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 1: rankings against the free agency moves. For both of you, Bill,

746
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 1: you go first, do you see a team right now

747
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 1: that is under value? Do you see a team that

748
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 1: is your Niners of two thousand twenty. I don't think

749
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 1: there's anyone who's quite as obvious of a value. Unfortunately,

750
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: at that level, I would to the Chargers are probably

751
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,359
Speaker 1: the closest thing, but they're also the Chargers. We don't

752
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 1: know what they're gonna get out of their quarterback play,

753
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 1: which that can swamp a lot of what I would

754
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: typically see in the numbers. I think a classic example

755
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: is the Broncos when they were replacing Tim Tebow with

756
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 1: paid In Manning. The numbers said, the Broncos are going

757
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 1: to decline because so much about that Tim Tebow season

758
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,439
Speaker 1: was unsustainable and lucky. It's wins in close games, wins

759
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 1: and overtime. They got paid in Manning, and because Payton

760
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,240
Speaker 1: Manning is so much better than Tim Tebow, that swamped

761
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 1: all the numbers for the previous year because the team

762
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: was so different with Payton manning a quarterback. So I

763
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: might have pointed to what the Chargers, but I would

764
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 1: be concerned that Tyrod Taylor, who I like, you know,

765
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 1: is not as good of a quarterback as Philip Rivers days,

766
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: and that could be something that holds them back. So

767
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: there's not that sort of dramatically obvious team to me.

768
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: I would say maybe the Bengals would be a team

769
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 1: that I think are going to take a step forward

770
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 1: that's maybe bigger than people think, But I don't think

771
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 1: they're going to be a super Bowl team. All right.

772
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 1: Bernwell cleverly evaded that question by saying the Bagles will

773
00:36:56,320 --> 00:37:00,919
Speaker 1: be better than people think. Who's your under value team

774
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 1: right now any market? The New York Giants. The New

775
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: York Giants UH tied for the worst turnover differential in

776
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 1: the week, so we got that going for us. With

777
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 1: the Charges, I think Daniel Jones far exceeded expectations and

778
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 1: even show you know, showed some flashes to where um,

779
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 1: he takes a normal second year leap reduced to some

780
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 1: of the turnovers and whatnot. I think you have an

781
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:26,720
Speaker 1: explosive supporting cast around him. And listen, you have an unknown.

782
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: You have some unknowns in the coaching staff with some

783
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,439
Speaker 1: guys who I think are better suited to their roles

784
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 1: after right now than they've been as leaders of teams.

785
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: And so you have this kind of upside I think

786
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 1: all around where you know, the Giants are gonna be

787
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: looked at as a team that's not, you know, expected

788
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,240
Speaker 1: to do much. But it doesn't take a lot, especially

789
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 1: in this division where you have the Washington Redskins, which

790
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: are beatable twice a year. You have the Eagles, which

791
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 1: have shown even when they make the playoffs, they're beatable

792
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 1: twice a year. Uh, and then you have the Cowboys,

793
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 1: who are this kind of you know, unknown now going

794
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 1: to a new coaching staff. So I look for the

795
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,919
Speaker 1: New York Giants. I think of improvements on defense, which

796
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: easier to improve year over year regresses to the mean

797
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 1: more often than not than offense does. I think you're

798
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 1: gonning to see a little bit of a natural regression

799
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 1: on defense for the Giants. I think that Barnwell, you agree, Yeah,

800
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 1: I think so. And you know I would to put

801
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 1: them as a super Bowl team by any means, but um,

802
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 1: you know, could they be a seven eight win team. Yeah,

803
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,439
Speaker 1: I don't think that's out of the question. Okay, guys,

804
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:29,439
Speaker 1: it's time for our final segment. Another thing, another thing.

805
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 1: This one is going to be a rapid fire. Are

806
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,439
Speaker 1: you ready? Both of you will answer. This is called

807
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 1: the I'm naming this the inaugural Bill O'Brien rapid fire question.

808
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: The quarterback you love to bet, but whose coach makes

809
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 1: you nervous? Told the trigger? Maybe Dak Prescott. We'll see

810
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: the McCarthy. But I already against Mike McCarthy. I mean,

811
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 1: I have experienced with Mike McCarthy. I've seen what happened

812
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 1: in the past. He cost you know, Aaron Lodgers now

813
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 1: with different Smaron Rock six years ago he caught Aaron

814
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 1: Rodgers two Super Bowls with his decision making. I think

815
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 1: so I'm inclined to until I see otherwise, bet Againstnike McCarthy.

816
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 1: But Mike McCarthy loves analytics. Now he's a changed man. Yeah,

817
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:14,320
Speaker 1: I've heard that one before. I believe it. Believe it

818
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 1: when I actually see it in practice. I will say

819
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 1: teddy Bridge voter and seven career as a starter against

820
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 1: the spread. But I don't know what to make of

821
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 1: his new coach, but love betting on Teddy Bridge voter.

822
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 1: All right, I call this that's a good one. I

823
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 1: call this the U first ever DeAndre Hopkins uh rapid

824
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: fire question. The wide receiver will soon be as disposable

825
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: as running backs, That is my hot take. Wide receiver

826
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 1: will soon be as disposable as running backs as a position.

827
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 1: Raybond your first. Oh yeah, yeah, No, it will not

828
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 1: be disposable as running backs, because the whole premise of

829
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 1: that is that it's because passing is more efficient, and um,

830
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: that is not going to change even if the individual

831
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 1: components of that aren't quite as important as let's say

832
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: a quarterback because you have four to five of them

833
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: running routes on every play. That doesn't mean that that

834
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 1: wide receivers are going to go the way right, burn Well,

835
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,240
Speaker 1: wide receivers could be less valuable than they might seem.

836
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 1: Right now, I could to the top of the market,

837
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 1: maybe not hitting the peaks you might expect, But no,

838
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 1: running backs are pretty much a waste of time to

839
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 1: care about. Wide receivers are not the paths always needed

840
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:30,840
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick more than Tom Brady. Burnwell, yes or no, no,

841
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 1: Tom Brady is quite valuable and we've seen Bill Belichick

842
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 1: without a quarterback and it has not always been very effective.

843
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 1: So I think I read about this a few years ago.

844
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 1: I think it came on the side of Brady hopefully,

845
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 1: But yeah, I would pick Brady over Belichick. Wow, you

846
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: saw the Browns with without Tom Brady. You saw the

847
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 1: Matt Castle year with the greatest team you know on

848
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 1: sixteen and the year before they were eleven and five.

849
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 1: Granted they should have made the playoffs probably it's a

850
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 1: pretty rare thing. But Tom Brady has been carrying this team.

851
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 1: But get at the VU you look at the advance

852
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: Batricks when it comes to how good that defense has

853
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 1: been for the better part of the last decade. It

854
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 1: was only last year that the defense kind of held

855
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 1: up the end of the bargain. Bill Belichick JOm Vinue

856
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 1: test Averdy into a near pro bowler when he was

857
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: in Cleveland, Raybon Belichick more than Brady. Yes or no,

858
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna disagree with Bill here. I'm gonna go yes

859
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: only because I think you have all the advantages that

860
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: Belichick brings to your organization, and Belichick has shown a

861
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:28,879
Speaker 1: dept at finding quarterbacks other than Brady that have gone

862
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 1: on a half success. I mean, you look at Jimmy Garoppolo,

863
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:32,760
Speaker 1: you look at the success they had with Matt Castle

864
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 1: uh in twenty weight or nine. I believe it was

865
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 1: so um that I think that's enough to give him

866
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 1: the slight edge. But quarterback is always going to be

867
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 1: the number one thing that separates teams then coaches um.

868
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: But in this case, I'll say that just because he

869
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:48,800
Speaker 1: could probably find another quarterback Burnwell, Nick Folds will be

870
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 1: the starting quarterback for the Bears in at some point. Yes,

871
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 1: I don't think week one. I think this is an

872
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 1: organization that wants to believe Mitch Drabinski is the guy.

873
00:41:57,680 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 1: Like that's one of the reasons they didn't push for

874
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: a better option and quarterback. I think they want Nick

875
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 1: Foles to be just good enough to make them think

876
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 1: that Mr. Whisky is still their best options. Like the

877
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 1: Troisky starts a Week one, but we will see Nick

878
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 1: Foles before week seventeen. I'm going the opposite. I think

879
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 1: Nick Foles will be the start. I think Folds will

880
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: be the start of week one. If you look at

881
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 1: the advanced metric, he was slightly better than true Whisky

882
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:20,959
Speaker 1: and pretty much every category, and I think they would

883
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:24,280
Speaker 1: rather a quarterback that just can you know, run the offense,

884
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 1: get the ball out. However, I don't think he is

885
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:30,839
Speaker 1: substantially better than true Whisky uh to necessarily hold him

886
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 1: off all season one when you especially when you account

887
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 1: for the um rushing upside that tru Risky has had

888
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 1: at times. So I think they'll call. They'll be calls

889
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 1: for tru Risky at some point, and it will kind

890
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 1: of be like the minshew Fold situation where eventually the

891
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 1: team gives it. I love how you guys debate each other.

892
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 1: It's like, this is how analytics guys. WHOA, that's crazy.

893
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna politely disagree. This is not like

894
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: we're not talking first take here, guys, like we're only

895
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,760
Speaker 1: in polite when it comes to you, Chad. I appreciate.

896
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:04,399
Speaker 1: I appreciate that. Uh all right. My last question, when

897
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 1: do you normally go to bed on Sunday night Monday

898
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,839
Speaker 1: mornings during the NFL season? I asked someone who has

899
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: recently picked up duties as a podcast guest on ESPN

900
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 1: Daily Which tape and midnight on Sundays. Once I started

901
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 1: this year, I think my average bedtime was six thirty

902
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: in the morning Monday morning. Yeah, it's I've been there.

903
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 1: I have been there these days. For me, it's usually

904
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 1: not too long after the game ends because I am

905
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 1: so burnt out because I usually stay up all night

906
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 1: meeting into Sunday. So the Saturday night, I'm usually up

907
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 1: all night doing rankings, you know, kind of updating models,

908
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 1: getting bets in prop bets, all these different things, and

909
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 1: then I try to stay up through all the games,

910
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:48,759
Speaker 1: and then I just kind of crash. What I like

911
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 1: about this is there's a good forty eight hours where

912
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 1: neither of you are sleeping, right, which I appreciate. I

913
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 1: appreciate you both doing your best sleeping your least to

914
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: get out and for nation, for the rest of the

915
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 1: world to consume. That's what we need in this time

916
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 1: of coronavirus epidemics. Bill Barnwell, Chris Raybon, thank you guys

917
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 1: both for joining the Favorites. Before we go, as always,

918
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:19,840
Speaker 1: we have some inspiring words from our CEO, Mr Patrick Keene.

919
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:27,399
Speaker 1: No God, please, no, no, no no. This has been

920
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: the Favorites from the Action Network. Download from Apple, Spotify, Stitcher, Subscribe, unsubscribe,

921
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: re subscribe until next time. I love you,