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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Action

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Speaker 1: Network and proudly presented by Bett three sixty five. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday afternoon, May thirtieth, the day after the

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Speaker 1: Boston Celtics lost to the Miami Heat in Game seven.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by

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Speaker 1: my co host, my companion Mike and Padre, my BFF

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Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter Ello.

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Speaker 2: So I'm in, hello, Chad. Yes, NBA Finals, finally, finally,

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Speaker 2: NBA Finals.

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Speaker 1: Listen. It was what nine days between when the Nuggets

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Speaker 1: finished off the Lakers and the Heat finished off the Celtics.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get to that. We're gonna have Matt Moore,

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Speaker 1: Action Network Senior writer covering the NBA. He's got a

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Speaker 1: couple of great stories already out right now after last

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Speaker 1: night's game, both talking about the Heat and the Nuggets.

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Speaker 1: He is a Colorado based dude. He knows the Nuggets

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Speaker 1: inside and out. He also had a great story that

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Speaker 1: I want to kick off when we talked to him

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Speaker 1: about are the Celtics one of those teams that could

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Speaker 1: be considered the most overrated betting team? In NBA history.

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Speaker 1: Also co host of the Buckets podcast, The Fabulous Buckets Podcast, Simon.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to that, Nick Nurse is the new

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Speaker 1: coach of the Philadelphia seventy six ers. You got a

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Speaker 1: hot take.

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Speaker 2: It's a kind of NBA sting. I turned the AHL, right, NHL,

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Speaker 2: if you have a head coach, you expect that he'll

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Speaker 2: be back in about five years. By then, you already

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Speaker 2: have six new head coaches on your team. So the

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Speaker 2: NHL is kind of the extreme where no matter what,

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Speaker 2: eventually your head coach will eventually be back. The NBA

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Speaker 2: is kind of turning that way, right. It's like the

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Speaker 2: Old Boys Club. It's just the rotation of guys. I

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Speaker 2: like Nick Nurse. I think it's a good move. I

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Speaker 2: think you're in the same boat. Right. We got fifteen weeks,

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Speaker 2: fifteen Sundays, I should say, until the NFL starts. These

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Speaker 2: are like the if you love sports, these are the

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Speaker 2: last really good two weeks. Right, we got NHL, we

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Speaker 2: get NBA, and then it's just it's over. It's just

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Speaker 2: baseball from then on out. So I'm excited about it.

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Speaker 2: I haven't even really thought about them. I'm still locked

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Speaker 2: in on the NBA still going all in on hockey again.

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Speaker 2: I never in my life would think I'd miss Florida.

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Speaker 2: But what a time to be a Florida sports fan.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you literally have two eight seeds in the finals.

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Speaker 2: It's pretty insane. So I would say I'm bitter. I'm

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Speaker 2: still in that bitter mode, like I've been bitter being

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Speaker 2: a little bitch to Boston since they lost. It's fun

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Speaker 2: trolling that fan base because they're so sensitive. Same goes

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Speaker 2: with Florida. I hope Florida loses them both finals. That

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Speaker 2: I'd be wonderful for me because I'm in East Coast bias.

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Speaker 2: I love talking shit, so Florida cool story. I hope

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Speaker 2: their hockey team loses and their basketball team. That's that's

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Speaker 2: me as a bitter Philadelphia's sports fan.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is proudly presented by

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Speaker 1: price guaranteed. So we had a little glitch before we

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Speaker 1: came on the air because Simon, you and I were

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Speaker 1: just bopping our heads to the music and didn't realize

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Speaker 1: it was time to start talking.

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Speaker 2: It's every day. I don't give fire chat. It's a

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Speaker 2: good day to may even when we make small talk. Now,

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Speaker 2: I make small talk if there's a camera in my

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Speaker 2: room now at all times. I'm one of those people.

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Speaker 2: I'm completely locked in that.

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Speaker 1: No joke. Man, It's frightening how you have to live

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Speaker 1: that way. So my sixteen year old decided to join Twitter.

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Speaker 2: Nice.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he asked me to follow him and I did,

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Speaker 1: and I was just thrilled that he said I should

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Speaker 1: follow him. The only thing he's tweeted so far a

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Speaker 1: couple of basketball tweets. And I say to him and

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Speaker 1: his friends, who are all joining Twitter and you know,

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Speaker 1: wanting to do podcasts, I'm like, listen to me. Don't

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Speaker 1: do anything stupid that you think is funny, because you

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Speaker 1: have bad sense of humor, you have bad judgment, and

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Speaker 1: anything you do on this platform will come back to

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Speaker 1: haunt you later in life. So last night during the

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Speaker 1: Celtics game, and I want to bring in Matt More

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Speaker 1: to talk about this. He was trying to workshop some

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Speaker 1: tweets with me, telling me tweets he wanted to put

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Speaker 1: out about Jalen Brown, or about how bad the Celtics are,

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Speaker 1: Jalen Brown turnovers and every one of them. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: these are terrible. If you're gonna do it, be original.

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Speaker 1: Don't be the guy who just says what you're thinking

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Speaker 1: because you think it's interesting. You got ten followers, nobody

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Speaker 1: gives a fuck.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's why I'm in a new account. When I

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Speaker 2: got hired by you, Chad, I was like, you know what,

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Speaker 2: I don't think people need to see any writing a

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Speaker 2: rap lyrics from when I was in high school. No,

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Speaker 2: that's probably not them. You've going to make a new

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Speaker 2: new profile. I'm telling you that's that's the way to go.

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Speaker 1: Matt Moore. Let's bring in Matt Moore, Action Network senior

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Speaker 1: writer covering the NBA. He's freaking brilliant at this. Talk

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Speaker 1: about a guy, uh who proves his worth unlike us

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Speaker 1: every single day, Simon, I want to talk about this

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Speaker 1: game last night. I want to talk about your story

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Speaker 1: about the Celtics being the most overrated betting team in

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Speaker 1: NBA history. You said something incredibly thoughtful and incredibly prescient.

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Speaker 1: When you were on the podcast two weeks ago before

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Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference Finals, we asked you, what does SPO

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Speaker 1: do Coach Spostra Eric Sposter do so well? What makes

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Speaker 1: him such a good coach? Which describe what you said

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Speaker 1: then and explain what you saw him do in this series,

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Speaker 1: especially last night they gave them a clear advantage in

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Speaker 1: Game seven.

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Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of things this s Bow

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Speaker 3: does well.

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Speaker 4: Obviously, it starts from the top in terms of like

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Speaker 4: the heat culture and all that stuff. That really stuff

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Speaker 4: is real in terms of how they approach it. But

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Speaker 4: from a tactical perspective, there's a couple of things as

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Speaker 4: Spoe does in particular. One much like Nick Nurse actually Simon,

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Speaker 4: he's not married to his prior concepts. He's not going

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Speaker 4: to go into a series like Doc Rivers does and

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Speaker 4: just be like, this is who we are and this

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Speaker 4: is how we play, and we won't change it, and

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Speaker 4: we just have to do it well enough and then

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Speaker 4: we'll win. He plays the personnel and the style necessary

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Speaker 4: to adapt to the problems in front of him. So

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Speaker 4: in this series he needed to get three point volumes,

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Speaker 4: so he went smaller and put the ball more in

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Speaker 4: Caleb Martin's hands, who almost won probably should have won

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Speaker 4: Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Thank God for me. He didn't

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Speaker 4: have a big ticket on Jimmy Butler, but in this

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Speaker 4: series he was able to manipulate. He removes Kevin Love,

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Speaker 4: who is a starter. Kevin Loves goes from starter to

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Speaker 4: bench to not in the rotation. Cody Zeller goes from

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Speaker 4: a key part versus the bucks not in the rotation.

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Speaker 4: He adjusts to whatever is necessary, and then on top

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Speaker 4: of that, he throws a lot of different coverages out

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Speaker 4: for what he needs to be able to do. Boston

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Speaker 4: has historically had a lot of problems with zone and

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Speaker 4: so what Spoe did in the series was pretty genius.

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Speaker 4: It's not just as simple as like he used zone. Okay,

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Speaker 4: lots of coaches can do that. You have to be

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Speaker 4: able to coach it and execute it well. But here's

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Speaker 4: the other key. He would throw it at them when

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Speaker 4: they were not expecting it. So you start off the

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Speaker 4: game and you're a man demand and the Celtics try

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Speaker 4: and get comfortable, and then the second quarter when they're

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Speaker 4: trying to make a push, Bam, he hits you with

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Speaker 4: a zone for just a small stretch, goes back to man,

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Speaker 4: you get comfortable with that, again, hits you with zone again.

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Speaker 4: The way to interrupt these teams using zone, and he's

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Speaker 4: gonna have a big problem with that in the next series.

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Speaker 4: Is one of the reasons why I think Spoe is

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Speaker 4: one of the best coaches in the NBA.

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Speaker 1: He's he is sick, he is totally sick. I also

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Speaker 1: love his demeanor. You saw such a difference between when

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Speaker 1: the Heat are losing and Spoe is interviewed, whether it's

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Speaker 1: you know, before halftime or after the third quarter, he

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Speaker 1: gives a thoughtful answer about that is that is honest.

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Speaker 1: These guys want to win so bad. These guys are pushing,

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Speaker 1: These guys are tense. Joe Mizulo, what do you think

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Speaker 1: about Jason Tatum's got to fight through it? Second question?

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Speaker 1: Less than three were to answer. This Celtics team, I

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Speaker 1: just felt like they were made up of guys who

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Speaker 1: lead from the front the entire time. They are not

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Speaker 1: a team that handled adversity very well and in every

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Speaker 1: respect last night I know Jason Tatum was injured, but

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Speaker 1: he was still playing. And this is a team that

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Speaker 1: had no strategy if they weren't winning the game, because

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Speaker 1: all they wanted to do one pass, break a guy

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Speaker 1: down in one on one, drive to the basket, turn

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Speaker 1: over the and they did that last year in the

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Speaker 1: finals two, Matt, it's not like anything changed in the

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Speaker 1: past twelve months for their two key players.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I think a lot of this too is you know,

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Speaker 4: I'll kind of reframe it a little bit. So you said,

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Speaker 4: like they want to play from the front, they don't

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Speaker 4: handle adversity. Well, they came back from the Sixers against

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Speaker 4: the Sixers down three to two. They came back last

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Speaker 4: year down three to two in a series. They actually

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Speaker 4: respond pretty well when they're absolutely against the wall. But

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Speaker 4: here's the problem is they mess around so much and

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Speaker 4: put themselves in such bad situations that their margin for

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Speaker 4: error goes to zero. Like this is still the no

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Speaker 4: team has come back from multiple game sevens, Like they can't.

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Speaker 4: It's too much to ask for. And so they messed

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Speaker 4: around versus the Sixers and barely got out of that

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Speaker 4: because they faced a team that's actually worse in those situations.

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Speaker 4: Than they are, and then they run into Miami and

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Speaker 4: they do the exact same thing, losing Game one. Okay,

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Speaker 4: teams usually lose after going to a game seven. There's

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Speaker 4: a historical trend behind that, all right. Game two was

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Speaker 4: the one where you gotta win that game and they

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Speaker 4: come out flat and they get smacked in that one.

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Speaker 4: That was the one where they really I think lost

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Speaker 4: the series. Where their season ended was game two. Now

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Speaker 4: they push all the way back from down three because

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Speaker 4: they were, to be quite honest, the better on paper,

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Speaker 4: more talented team, but they got themselves to a Game seven,

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Speaker 4: and then it really felt like after Derek White hits

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Speaker 4: that buzzer beater, which, by the way, the Celtics blew

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Speaker 4: a ten point lead in a must win situation in

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Speaker 4: Game six, it felt like they were like we got it,

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Speaker 4: crowds behind us, like they could just show up, and

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Speaker 4: Mihami was like, no, like we're we are absolutely prepared

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Speaker 4: to win this environment. And Boston, more than anything is

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Speaker 4: just if the threes aren't falling, they fall apart.

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Speaker 3: They can't win different ways.

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Speaker 4: If the Celtics can't hit threes, that team absolutely falls

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Speaker 4: to pieces their numbers. When they shot less than thirty

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Speaker 4: five percent from three in the postseason the last two

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Speaker 4: seasons is awful, and it caught up with them in

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Speaker 4: Game seven at the absolute worst time. But you've got

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Speaker 4: to be able to find different way used to win.

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Speaker 4: Last year they had the defense to do that. They

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Speaker 4: got away from that process this year and that's why

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Speaker 4: they're going home.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. It just felt

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Speaker 2: like the Celtics last year. You can really tell how

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Speaker 2: big of a difference the coaching was, right if you

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Speaker 2: go back and watch the film from them last year

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Speaker 2: to this year. Defensive schemes is totally different, right, It

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Speaker 2: felt like this year the defensive schemes were different. And

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Speaker 2: then offensively again, it not that I want to nippick

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Speaker 2: about the NBA, but we've seen how these teams kind

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Speaker 2: of trying to do the Golden State mode. Right, It's like, well,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna become a team that can hit these threes, right,

250
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Speaker 2: We're gonna run plays where you can hit these open threes.

251
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Speaker 2: None of it felt like it was in rhythm, Like

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Speaker 2: if you go back and watch the YAP last night,

253
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Speaker 2: all their shots were in rhythm. Like that's such a

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Speaker 2: big deal. Anyone that shoots, you know how it is

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Speaker 2: you literally practice these shots and you know, to me,

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Speaker 2: the whole thing with Boston last night, it was just

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Speaker 2: so interesting. Of Yeah, the Tatum injury was real, right,

258
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Speaker 2: you saw that kind of shifted that whole game when

259
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Speaker 2: he got hurt. He really couldn't do much defensively and

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Speaker 2: he just was trying to tough it out. But the rest

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Speaker 2: of the team just wilt it. I mean, I mean

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Speaker 2: Jalen Brown, that was his his career high of turnovers, right,

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Speaker 2: eight turnovers and a game seven at home. Just bizarre.

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Speaker 2: Even when they're up big the heat, I still thought, well,

265
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Speaker 2: Boston'll make a run, right because they were just shooting

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Speaker 2: so terribly from three, and it just never came. So

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Speaker 2: what is your view on the Celtics team? Like, what

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Speaker 2: are they historically as a betting team? I mean, how

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Speaker 2: do you view them through a prism of this is

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Speaker 2: a team that a lot of hype, Right, they were

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Speaker 2: the two seed? What were they minus four hundred? I

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Speaker 2: think they were minus fourgering this years their minus fin

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Speaker 2: waldred against the Sixers that went to seven. This just

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Speaker 2: a team that seemed like they ever underachieved a lot

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Speaker 2: this season. So I just want to know, from historically

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Speaker 2: betting perspective, how do you view this team that more.

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Speaker 4: I think they're the most overrated team from a betting

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Speaker 4: perspective that we've seen that we have numbers on since

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Speaker 4: we have data going back to us since two thousand

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Speaker 4: and three, they have the most losses in a postseason

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Speaker 4: as a favorite with eight. They have literally lost the

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Speaker 4: most when favored. They were favored in almost every matchup,

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Speaker 4: and a lot of this is is it puts in

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Speaker 4: the betting perspective right where we're gonna talk about this

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Speaker 4: From a betting perspective, It's not just like these guys

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Speaker 4: are overrated versus how good they are. It's like, no, no, no,

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Speaker 4: we have numbers. What does the market think? And the

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Speaker 4: market consistently overrated this team, Like we're seeing them as

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Speaker 4: a seven and a half eight point favorite in these

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Speaker 4: Sixers games at home, when clearly the Sixers were able

291
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Speaker 4: to hang with them, Like at every single spot there

292
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Speaker 4: was an opportunity to come back on the other side,

293
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Speaker 4: especially if you had the money line and make good profit.

294
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Speaker 4: I went against them after the Hawks series was when

295
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Speaker 4: I started first started to be like, uh oh, because

296
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Speaker 4: they should have lost one to the Hawks and they

297
00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,360
Speaker 4: lost two. They should have lost two to the Sixers,

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Speaker 4: they lost three. And then this one they should have

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Speaker 4: lost maybe three to the Heat.

300
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Speaker 3: They lost four. Like they just went and they went below.

301
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Speaker 4: I'll say this, I thought the Celtics were gonna win

302
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Speaker 4: the series because I was like, well, they'll screw around.

303
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Speaker 4: The best bet on the here on the series was

304
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Speaker 4: Heat plus two and a half. Got a great price

305
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Speaker 4: on it because of how the market overrated this Celtics team.

306
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Speaker 3: But even I didn't.

307
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Speaker 4: Think that they would actually lose the thing. And yet

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Speaker 4: that's kind of the thing here is like every time

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Speaker 4: that we think that you've gone as low as you

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Speaker 4: can go, Boston went one step lower and that really

311
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Speaker 4: cost them what should have been a chance at a

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Speaker 4: return to the finals and at least a shot at

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Speaker 4: an NBA Championship. They would have been favored versus the

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Speaker 4: Denver Nuggets, Like that's not speculation. I talked to book makers.

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Speaker 4: Would have been favorites, not just because of home court,

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Speaker 4: even past home court. They would have been favorites in

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Speaker 4: that series versus Denver. They blew a golden opportunity versus

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Speaker 4: an eight seed. Tough as nails eight seed. But this

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Speaker 4: is a huge wasted opportunity and if we really look back,

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Speaker 4: it's it's an example of how when when the market

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Speaker 4: either has the liability or power rating on a team

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Speaker 4: that simply isn't commiserate with how the playoffs are operating,

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Speaker 4: you've got an opportunity to fade that side and make

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Speaker 4: a big profit on it.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I'll just say just the fact that we

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Speaker 2: didn't get Jason Tatum. Like again, the Sixers did the tank.

327
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Speaker 2: We tried to do the whole process, and that was

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Speaker 2: one of the biggest misses I think. I mean for

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Speaker 2: me as a Sistress fan, when the biggest misses ever

330
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Speaker 2: was trading up taking Folds, not taking Tatum. Tatum has

331
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Speaker 2: been incredible, and so to me, it's fun to troll

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Speaker 2: Tatum to these Boston fans because they put such high

333
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Speaker 2: expectations on the kid. He doesn't really live up to him. Again,

334
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Speaker 2: he's a great score, he does a lot of great things,

335
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Speaker 2: but we just see a time time again this team.

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Speaker 2: I feel like you just talking about the bookmakers keep

337
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,120
Speaker 2: overrating them. So to me, man, if you if you

338
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Speaker 2: had the goal to keep going against the heat, you're

339
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 2: just dead right now, right, I mean they've literally we've

340
00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:37,960
Speaker 2: never seen this before in an eight seed like this.

341
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 2: Really well were they? I think they were plus seven

342
00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,400
Speaker 2: hundred plus eight hundred against the Bucks, plus like one

343
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Speaker 2: fifty plus one twenty against the Knicks, and then this

344
00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,480
Speaker 2: series there plus four hundred. It's crazy to think, Chad,

345
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 2: they were down three with three minutes to go against

346
00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 2: the Bulls in a playing game, and now here they

347
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Speaker 2: are in the NBA Finals. So this is not saying

348
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Speaker 2: this is one of the most fun seasons ever FRAMBA,

349
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Speaker 2: but I feel like this is the dream as a

350
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Speaker 2: fan of the NBA, right, we wanted to be. Any

351
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,000
Speaker 2: team needs one or two superstars and you can have

352
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Speaker 2: a chance of the NBA finals, right, And it felt

353
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Speaker 2: like the Lebron Err not that it took away from that,

354
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Speaker 2: but it felt like the Big Three became a thing.

355
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Speaker 2: Right these last ten years, it was all about the

356
00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,159
Speaker 2: Big Three. You had to get these superstars, right to

357
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Speaker 2: make a chance. I'm love this. It's giving me major

358
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,200
Speaker 2: Dirk vibes. Right, it's Jimmy's the Dirk of their team.

359
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 2: I just I love it. I just love I love

360
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Speaker 2: the way where the NBA is at right now in

361
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,359
Speaker 2: the sense that it gives you hope. It's all these

362
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,680
Speaker 2: people are bitching about this playing games. Everyone's bitching about

363
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 2: the Ncason Tournament. I love it all just because it's

364
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,159
Speaker 2: just once again, it's exciting. Where all you need is

365
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,000
Speaker 2: one superstar and a bunch of role players, you can

366
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Speaker 2: make this work.

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Speaker 1: Now, let me give you some context on how close

368
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,400
Speaker 1: the Heat came from not even advancing in the playoffs.

369
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Speaker 1: The night I was talking about this last night, I

370
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Speaker 1: had some buddies over to watch the game, and they

371
00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:03,280
Speaker 1: were with their kids and my kid and were My

372
00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:07,120
Speaker 1: buddy reminded me, hey, weren't you like at the Yankees

373
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Speaker 1: game when the Heat and the Bulls were playing, because

374
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Speaker 1: he and I were testing at the time. I'm like, yeah,

375
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:17,200
Speaker 1: And in the time between the game ending, us leaving

376
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:21,159
Speaker 1: our seats and then getting to the subway, the Bulls

377
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 1: went from ahead to losing the game. It was like

378
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:29,199
Speaker 1: it wasn't even three minutes of game time. It was

379
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 1: basically three minutes of real time between the Heat winning,

380
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 1: losing and winning that game. Now they're going to the

381
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 1: NBA Finals. Let's talk about the NBA Finals. The Nuggets

382
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 1: opened as minus three sixty favorites, which was surprising to

383
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 1: me that it was that high, given how I thought

384
00:18:52,920 --> 00:19:00,840
Speaker 1: the public would view the Heat. So, Matt, you just

385
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 1: shook your head when I said that was surprising to me.

386
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,399
Speaker 1: That's not surprising to you.

387
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:05,480
Speaker 2: No.

388
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Speaker 4: I mean, look, ultimately, we see kind of the same

389
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,879
Speaker 4: thing with what we just talked about on the flip

390
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 4: side of the Celtics, where they had to keep overrating

391
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 4: the Celtics based off of the power rating and where

392
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 4: the books had these these teams on the other side,

393
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:19,919
Speaker 4: and the liability is like a big factor in this too.

394
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 3: Boston picked up a huge chunk of championship.

395
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 4: Liability when they were rattling off wins back in early

396
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:31,640
Speaker 4: December and January. Similarly, the Nuggets took on a lot

397
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 4: of money, like they just have a bigger liability on Denver,

398
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,159
Speaker 4: and Denver's a one seed like Denver's I'll just say

399
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 4: it's like Denver's a better team. They're a way better team.

400
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 4: Doesn't mean they can't they they can't lose this series.

401
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 4: But Boston was a better team Milwaukee. I think the

402
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,440
Speaker 4: Joannis injury changes it and some of their historical stuff,

403
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 4: like it was a really bad matchup and the Bucks

404
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 4: were falling apart. I kind of chronicle a little bit

405
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 4: of that this season and Action Network, but ultimately, like

406
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 4: those teams were better and the Heat still won. And

407
00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 4: like having said, like that's what we want to see

408
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,640
Speaker 4: in the NBA is more of this chaos, more of

409
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 4: the opportunity for these underdogs. But the Nuggets have to

410
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 4: be a significant favorite here, like they just have to

411
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,719
Speaker 4: be in part, I'll say this, Sharps have been on

412
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,679
Speaker 4: Denver for years, like that has been a team that

413
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 4: has consistently accumulated a high percentage of sharp moves of money.

414
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,120
Speaker 4: Of all the things that we track over an Action Network,

415
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 4: We've seen that consistently come through, and you've seen line

416
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 4: movements go that way. So I'm not surprised at all

417
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 4: that the Nuggets open as a heavy favorite.

418
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:30,680
Speaker 3: It's one of the reasons why in the Action.

419
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 4: Slack we were all not rooting, but like Boston would

420
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 4: have been a preferred betting outcome because we would have

421
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 4: been able to get the Nuggets at a plus number

422
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,159
Speaker 4: Versus we knew we were gonna have to pay the

423
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 4: juice and really get squeezed if we were going to

424
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,440
Speaker 4: bet Denver in this matchup, and you're seeing that now,

425
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,159
Speaker 4: So I'm not surprised that an eight seed who had it.

426
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:52,920
Speaker 3: By the way, they are the first.

427
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,360
Speaker 4: There has never been a team with a regular season

428
00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:01,199
Speaker 4: minus point differential to win the NBA Championship. The closest

429
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 4: was the seventy eight Bullets. The Heat were outscored in

430
00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 4: the regular season. That's how rough they were from a

431
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 4: mediocre perspective. So I don't think there's a way for

432
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 4: oddsmakers to adequately kind of put the number to a

433
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,479
Speaker 4: place where how it feels to us right now. But

434
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 4: you also have to remember Miami did go seven with

435
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 4: this Boston team. Miami did have a three to zero

436
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,880
Speaker 4: lead and it went seven. It did take them going

437
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 4: on the road in Game seven and the Celtics completely

438
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 4: falling apart. So like, this Heat team is far from

439
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 4: a juggernaut versus if you look on the other side,

440
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 4: Denver's resume is tough to pick apart. They went five

441
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 4: with the Wolves, they went six with the Suns after

442
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 4: Devin Booker literally shot eighty percent over two games, close

443
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 4: them out in dominant fashion in Game six on the road,

444
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 4: and then swept the Los Angeles Lakers and Lebron James.

445
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 4: So I think it's difficult to be able to get

446
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 4: to a powerating that feels closer. But I also don't

447
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 4: necessarily know that the numbers on the series are wrong

448
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 4: from a book perspective.

449
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 2: Now, is it a coaching mismatch or is this in

450
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 2: your opinion, are these both these coaches pretty equal where

451
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 2: Spow does have a huge edge like he did in

452
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 2: that Celtics matchup, or is this you know, more spread

453
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,679
Speaker 2: out than we realized, where Spoe actually does have a

454
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,919
Speaker 2: leg up on you know, this Denver team, which, like

455
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:19,679
Speaker 2: you just said, Denver is very good, but have they

456
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: been tested where I mean it feels like the Heat

457
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 2: had been tested for two months now. So to me,

458
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 2: I definitely give a mental edge it feels like to

459
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 2: the Heat. But I would love to hear your perspective

460
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 2: on this.

461
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll say this that I've heard a lot about

462
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 4: the Nuggets mental perspective and coaching was the big question

463
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 4: mark for a lot of folks here in Denver. But

464
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 4: Michael Malone's been awesome. He's had the edge part of

465
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,119
Speaker 4: this too. And I've talked about this on the show before.

466
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 4: It's about when you make adjustments you don't want to

467
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,360
Speaker 4: be the first one to have to throw stuff out

468
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,239
Speaker 4: And we saw that versus the Suns where they're just

469
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 4: flipping guys in and out of the lineup, in and

470
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 4: out of the rotation, trying to do everything. The Lakers

471
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 4: same deal, they're just throwing stuff out there, trying to

472
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 4: catch up with Denver. Denver has waited and been able

473
00:22:59,920 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 4: to get to their adjustments later, and talking to coaches

474
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 4: throughout my time in the league, like that's.

475
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 3: A big advantage. You want to be you don't want

476
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 3: to be the first one to adjust. You want to

477
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 3: be the last one to adjust, so you.

478
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,679
Speaker 4: Have the final answers when you when you get to

479
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,360
Speaker 4: the end of the road, you're the one that makes

480
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,880
Speaker 4: that last tweak to things. Look, SPO's a better coach

481
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 4: because I think Spoe is the best coach in the

482
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 4: NBA currently with Greg Popovic coaching, you know, a rebuilding team,

483
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 4: the best team coach in terms of contending right now

484
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 4: is Eric Spolstra. Like that's the best coach in the

485
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 4: league right now. I think it's Spoe and then Kerr

486
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 4: and then we can talk about everybody else.

487
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 3: But the difference here.

488
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 4: Is that Spoe went against Mike Budenholzer, who is definitely

489
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 4: a we do what we do and we don't change

490
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,919
Speaker 4: anything guy. Then he went against Tom Thibodeau, who is

491
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 4: literally the best coach to fade in the NBA playoffs.

492
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 4: That's what we've discovered in bet Labs. And then he

493
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 4: FoST Joe as the action slacker started calling him Joe Mozzarella,

494
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 4: which is not fair at old Joe, but rough series,

495
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 4: rough playoffs, Joe has put in a very difficult situation

496
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 4: being thrust into this position basically two weeks before the season.

497
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,679
Speaker 4: It's hard for me to blame Joe. Mizula that said,

498
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 4: like that coaching mismatch was massive. This is a massive

499
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 4: Like this gets into Spolstra has fewer options at his

500
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 4: disposal in terms of personnel, he has more ways to

501
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 4: use them. Malone has better personnel, a few more players

502
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 4: that he can use, and he's got a number of

503
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 4: ways that he can use them. Can Spoe figure something out?

504
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 4: Like there's a lot of the conversation where this gets to,

505
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 4: which is just like, well, Spoe figure something out, and

506
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 4: even Spoe would tell you, and like you can go

507
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,919
Speaker 4: back and listen to his comments about Yokic in particulars

508
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 4: just not truely. There's some stuff that he can't figure out.

509
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 4: They don't have a solve for Nicola Jokic in the series.

510
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 4: They do not have one. They're not going to figure

511
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 4: out Nikola Jokic. They got to figure out everybody else

512
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 4: and hope that they can hit threes. But as far

513
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:54,879
Speaker 4: as the coaching advantage, SPO does have an advantage, I

514
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 4: just don't know that it's enough of one to make

515
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 4: up for the gaps in the other areas.

516
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 1: As a reminder, every week you can catch us recording

517
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: the Favorites live on AMP, the new live radio app

518
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 1: that lets you chat with.

519
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 3: Our crew while we record the show.

520
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: You can get AMP on Apple's app store and then

521
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,120
Speaker 1: follow at the Favorites there to get notified when we

522
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 1: go live. Because after we sign off from this show,

523
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,439
Speaker 1: we finish every AMP session with a special trivia prize

524
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 1: only available to our AMP listeners, So check it out.

525
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,919
Speaker 1: You had a really good story that came out early

526
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 1: this morning about the most important players in the heats

527
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 1: in the Heat Nuggets NBA Finals. It was really interesting

528
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 1: and surprising. Do you know why I think it's surprising.

529
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 3: Because I have Jimmy Butler, I think fifth Onelie.

530
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: Tell people, tell people your top three most important players

531
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: in the Heat Nuggets Finals.

532
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 3: So number one is then Kohala Jokic.

533
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 4: If Yogic isn't great, then the Heat lower that margin

534
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,959
Speaker 4: for error and they get closer. Okay, If Jokic isn't good,

535
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 4: it drops below. If Nikola Jokic does have a bad series,

536
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 4: which he has not, He's been the best player in

537
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,880
Speaker 4: the NBA playoffs and the most dominant player in the league.

538
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 4: If he has a bad series, then he can win

539
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 4: the series. It's not for sure. Yokic can have a

540
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 4: bad series, and if the Heat shooting regresses, then Denver

541
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 4: can can eke this out in unimpressive fashion. But Yogic

542
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,120
Speaker 4: is number one. If Yokic doesn't have a good series,

543
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 4: everything changes. If he has a great series, I don't

544
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 4: know how Miami's gonna be able to keep this competitive.

545
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 4: Two is Jamal Murray, because that's gonna be the pressure

546
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 4: point for the Heat. The heater gonna try and wear

547
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 4: him out. The heater going to try and target him defensively.

548
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 4: The heater are going to try and limit what he

549
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 4: does because they're gonna try and get it to where

550
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 4: Jokic can score thirty thirty, five forty. If we can

551
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 4: keep him under seven to six six. If we can

552
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 4: keep him under that mark, we're okay. But we can't

553
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 4: let Jamal Murray also average thirty as he did on

554
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 4: fifty forty ninety splits versus the Lakers. Teams have been

555
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 4: really surprised that Jamal Murray has been the guy that

556
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 4: he was in the bubble, but he has been awesome

557
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 4: for them, and so he's a big pressure point in this.

558
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 4: When Murray struggled in the Sun Series, those games were

559
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 4: much more competitive in Game two, three, and four. Murray

560
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 4: settled down in five and six and the Nuggets won

561
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 4: those games easily. They're also gonna put a lot of

562
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 4: pressure on defensively, so Murray's in a big question mark

563
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 4: there as well.

564
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 3: Number three is Caleb Martin.

565
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:37,919
Speaker 4: Caleb Friggin' Martin, who averaged under ten points in the

566
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 4: regular season, and versus the Boston Celtics averaged nineteen points

567
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 4: and six assists on sixty percent shooting from the field

568
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 4: and forty.

569
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 3: Nine percent shooting from three point range.

570
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 4: If Caleb Martin is able to be that guy again

571
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 4: for Miami, okay, Now that he'd have some firepower.

572
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 3: Because Jimmy's gonna do what Jimmy does. Mmy's gonna have

573
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 3: great games, and Jimmy's gonna have games where you're like,

574
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 3: where was Butler?

575
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 4: At Their key is gonna have to be Caleb Martin

576
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 4: being the guy that is able to step up and

577
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 4: provide some more offense, because I don't think you can

578
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 4: rely on Bam at a Bio, particularly with what he's

579
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 4: got on his plate defensively. So it's gonna have to

580
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,919
Speaker 4: be Caleb Martin taking advantage of how the Nuggets are

581
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 4: gonna have to send help towards Butler and at a

582
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 4: Bio and Martin punishing these teams, especially if the Nuggets

583
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 4: don't stay attached to him the way the Celtics didn't.

584
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 4: I think Caleb Martin is the most imp important player

585
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 4: for the Heat because they gotta find offense to make

586
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 4: up the difference.

587
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 2: That Caleb Martin, though, I was just gonna say a

588
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 2: real quick chat, he is the definition of that is

589
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 2: under point total every game in this series. He literally

590
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 2: went over it all seven games. Last series. Basketball is

591
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: weird like this. People get in rhythms. His rhythm will

592
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 2: be broken, right, they have seven days off here. He

593
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 2: has a lot of time to think too. He wasn't

594
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: thinking his last two weeks, right, it was just a game,

595
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 2: a day off, a game, a day off, a game

596
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 2: to day off. I love him to fade him. Yeah,

597
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: had two days rests, but you know what I mean,

598
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 2: It's just it's one of those where he had a

599
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 2: nice run against Boston. I could pletely see him being

600
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 2: a nice fade in this upcoming series, just because we

601
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 2: see time and time again. Yeah, he had an incredible run.

602
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 2: I think the Nuggets are gonna see the same exact tape, right,

603
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 2: They're gonna be like, Okay, we'll make someone else beat

604
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 2: us with these threes. Because against Boston, if you go

605
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 2: back and watch, all the three pointers were catching, shooting

606
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 2: a rhythm. It was one of those where he was

607
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 2: in transition. They're come up the floor, he kicks out

608
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 2: to the right, they kick it out to him, he

609
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 2: just shoots it in rhythm. I think the Nuggets will

610
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 2: be able to stop those kind of things. So I

611
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 2: love what you're saying because to me, you're right, like

612
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: the heat, if they're gonna win it, he's gotta be

613
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 2: one of the guys that steps up. I just can't

614
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 2: see him doing it again. It's like he kind of

615
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 2: used up all of his magic against his Boston team.

616
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 2: We expect him to come back then on Earth. There's

617
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 2: a reason his point total was eight and a half

618
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 2: most of those games against Boston. Right, the books aren't dumb.

619
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 2: They're waiting for him to come back to the Earth.

620
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 2: So to me, I'm talking to a couple pros after

621
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 2: that game last night. One of their favorite guys to

622
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 2: fade this upcoming upcoming series is glib Mortens total. So

623
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 2: if is over unders ten and a half points, I'm

624
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: going to be on that under for sure.

625
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 1: Well, Matt, to take it back to what you were

626
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: saying about, one of Spolstra's gifts as a coach is

627
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 1: he is fluid, Right, he will take whatever is in

628
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 1: front of him and make a system that matches or

629
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 1: finds the weakness or plays to his team's strength. Cody

630
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 1: Zeller out of the lineup, Kevin Love out of the lineup,

631
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: Ducan Robinson has barely been playing this season. All of

632
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: a sudden, he's central to the Heat success against the Celtics.

633
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: Tyler Hero potentially coming back by Game three in this

634
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: series to Simon's point, what are the adjustments, who gets

635
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 1: most impacted, what players get most impacted positively or negatively?

636
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 1: For the heat where we could find some player prop

637
00:30:58,200 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 1: betting opportunities.

638
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's gonna be interesting to see.

639
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 4: I think Bam at Abayo is gonna have at least

640
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 4: opportunities in this series. Now, Bam tends to disappear for

641
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 4: long stretches, and that's where you get concerned. But what

642
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 4: Jimmy Butler is gonna do is he's the Nuggets will

643
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 4: switch everything except with NIKOLEA.

644
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 3: Jokicic.

645
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 4: So if he puts, if he's got the ball and

646
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 4: he wants to target Michael Porter Junior and mpg's guarding

647
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 4: Kale Martin, they'll run that screen to get MPG on him,

648
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 4: and then they'll run it back with BAM screening with

649
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 4: Yokic defending, and BAM's gonna have opportunities because the only

650
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 4: way that the Nuggets can really play defensively with Nikola

651
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 4: Jokic and pick and roll is playing at the level.

652
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 4: So there's two guys on the ball, which means that

653
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 4: if you have your big man, your screener slipping middle,

654
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 4: you're gonna have opportunities there. Butler's gonna be that screener.

655
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 4: Sometimes they'll run that action too, So I think Butler

656
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 4: assists in the series is probably gonna be one that

657
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 4: I would look for the over, particularly because I think

658
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 4: that they're gonna make him into a passer and that's

659
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 4: going to open up some opportunities. But Bam Outebayo is

660
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 4: going to have short range small jumpers, and those are

661
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 4: shots that coming in rhythm, Those are shots he can make.

662
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 4: Those are shots that he can hit. That's an opportunity

663
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 4: where Bam could actually have an impact on the offensive end.

664
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 4: The problem with Bam really is like sometimes like you

665
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 4: just you can't understand his shot process. Sometimes he's like

666
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 4: confident and steps into it and is great, and then

667
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 4: sometimes he's just like I don't know, no, let's keep

668
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 4: it moving, and it's just like guy, like you had

669
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 4: space there, you got to take that shot. I think

670
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 4: BAM's one that's gonna be opened. Gave Vincent might be

671
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 4: an opportunity to play the over. I'm actually gonna be

672
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 4: looking for high Smith, who those will be late props

673
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 4: that are added very very late, and you may not

674
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 4: even see him until game two. I think high Smith's

675
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 4: gonna have to play in the series because the heater

676
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 4: at such a size disadvantage. They're gonna want to get

677
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 4: as much muscle out there as possible. They need athleticism.

678
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 4: So I think high Smith is maybe an opportunity to

679
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 4: play some overs because he'll be a low point total,

680
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 4: low three point total, all those.

681
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 3: Type of things.

682
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 4: I think there's an opportunity there to play those. Other

683
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 4: than that, it's hard to predict. Could be Gabe Vincent,

684
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 4: could be it was Gabe Vincent in the Heat series,

685
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 4: in the Bucks series or in the Celtic series. In

686
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 4: the Bucks series, but not versus the Knicks. Is it

687
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 4: max Strus? It was more max Strus in the next series,

688
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 4: but not so much in the other two. We kind

689
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 4: of have to see where's false rat things that he

690
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 4: can get the advantage. But I will say that, like,

691
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 4: there aren't good options here in general based off of

692
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 4: what they're facing, trying to balance on the offensive and

693
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 4: defensive side of the floor.

694
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 1: Bam Adebio at times in this series rivaled Jalen Brown

695
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: for looking like he was playing in oven mits. So

696
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 1: frustrating to watch both of them frustrating to watch, all right,

697
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 1: So potentially Jimmy Butler assists over potentially Bam points over

698
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: look for those opportunities. When we think about the series,

699
00:33:56,520 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 1: are there any bets right now? Game one Nuggets are

700
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 1: eight and a half point favorites, line open to two

701
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,959
Speaker 1: and a half. Total open at to eighteen and a half.

702
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 1: Got bet up by professionals to nineteen and a half. Simon,

703
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 1: what have you played anything so far?

704
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 2: Yeah? I did. I did the lazy bet of I

705
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 2: took Nuggets minus one and a half for the series,

706
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 2: so I took them to win in six hopefully again.

707
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 2: I love everything about what Miami has done. I feel

708
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 2: like match just touched on it right where I kind

709
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 2: of like to take the best player in these matchups

710
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,399
Speaker 2: in the finals. Right. It's kind of not that it's

711
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 2: based off Kobe, but it is like back in the

712
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,280
Speaker 2: day when Kobe was making those runs, it was always like, okay,

713
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 2: am I really gonna go against Kobe in the NBA Finals.

714
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: And I've kind of stuck to that where it's like,

715
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 2: if I have a generational talent, I usually like to

716
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 2: back them, and then if that jay initial talent has

717
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 2: a better team around him, like Kobe did all those runs, right,

718
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 2: he had the gasoli he had buying them and buying

719
00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 2: them was really good. He had the pieces around him.

720
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 2: I feel like the Joker has that right now. It's like,

721
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:06,240
Speaker 2: if this was I agree with Matt, if this was Boston,

722
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,240
Speaker 2: I probably would have been looking towards Boston in this matchup.

723
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 2: They just had the better team. They have the more

724
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 2: complete team than Denver does in this matchup. I know

725
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,959
Speaker 2: Matt Mooreson this a little message that is the Heat

726
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 2: really an eight seed? Right? They' probably should have been

727
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,439
Speaker 2: a three seed because they won their division. I don't

728
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 2: really view them as that though. I don't really view

729
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 2: them as a team that should be in a three seed.

730
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 2: I do think they were where they should be, Like

731
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 2: they are an eight seed. They were really bad during

732
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 2: the season. They had some really bad stretches, and yes,

733
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 2: they've kind of figured out here at the point. But

734
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 2: I just think Denver's been the best team from October

735
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 2: until now, right, They've just all throughout the season, through

736
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 2: the highs and lows, Denver was just consistent, really good.

737
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 2: To me, the biggest advantage was Denver at home. So

738
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 2: if I'm betting them, I'm taking them at minus one

739
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 2: and a half. I think it's minus one fifty in

740
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 2: most books for the series them they win in one

741
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 2: six games. But again, you got guys like Chad. I know, Chad,

742
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 2: you like the Heat. I think people will come on

743
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 2: the other side. So if you're a little worried about it,

744
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 2: you can wait it out this first game, because this

745
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 2: is really going to be a feeler, right this we

746
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 2: always see the first game is such a feeler where

747
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 2: anything could happen. I wouldn't be shocked at either side

748
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 2: blew out the other side, right if the Heat won

749
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 2: big I want to be shocked because Denver has just

750
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 2: been doing what for I mean, you just said they

751
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 2: had ninety is off from their last thing. Now they

752
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,280
Speaker 2: have another week on top of that, so that's sixteen

753
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 2: days between their last game and the first game the

754
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 2: NBA Finals. That's a long time between two really, you know,

755
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 2: you're going from sweeping a team to now you're being

756
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 2: thrown at the NBA Finals. Compared to the Heat, They're

757
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 2: going from a game seven to whatever six days off

758
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 2: and then they're back in the game one the NBA Finals.

759
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 2: I just think that's a big advantage to the Heat.

760
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 2: But I just like Denver in this series too.

761
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 1: Hold on. First of all, I don't even know where

762
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 1: you're getting your math on these days, but like they

763
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 1: got too gay. Two days between the end of the

764
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 1: Celtics series and the beginning of the finals.

765
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 2: I said that Nuggets had sixteen days off.

766
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 1: The Nuggets had, but they don't have sixteen days off.

767
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 1: They got that ended. It's like, uh wow, it's pretty close. Actually, yeah, Ago,

768
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,359
Speaker 1: I haven't. I haven't declared that I like the heat

769
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 1: in this series. I actually.

770
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 2: You literally said I like the heat.

771
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 1: To beat the Nuggets.

772
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 2: You said in our last show, what do you want from.

773
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 1: I want Mitchell to find the tape and bring it back,

774
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: because I don't think I would have said that. I can't.

775
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 1: I can't say that because I actually love both of

776
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: these teams so much. And unlike NFL betting, where I

777
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 1: don't bet any emotion at all, NBA betting emotion comes

778
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: into it for me because I want to root for

779
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: the team that I'm betting on. I'm much more of

780
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 1: an amateur when it comes to NBA betting. I realize

781
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: I'm setting myself up for anyone to say I'm an

782
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 1: amateur at all times. But I don't know, like I

783
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 1: love the narratives for both of these teams. I love Jokic,

784
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 1: I love Jamal Murray coming back. I love the Heat.

785
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 1: I want Jimmy Butler to win an NBA title. I

786
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: want Spolstroe win an NBA title without Lebron. So it

787
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 1: relies on sort of his coaching genius. Matt, what do

788
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 1: I do here?

789
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 3: To me? It's nuggets. I also bet.

790
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 4: I like how Simon was like the lazy bet. It's

791
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 4: the best value because it does give respect.

792
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 2: To the Heat.

793
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 4: You're basically paying the juice on giving the Heat enough

794
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,840
Speaker 4: respect to get two games. I think there's probably a

795
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 4: little bit of value on nuggets minus two and a

796
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 4: half on the series spread.

797
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 3: Honestly up as a nightmare. If you guys want to

798
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 3: know how bad it is.

799
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 4: NBA dot COM's got matchup data going back to the

800
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 4: last three seasons, and it could be a little bit

801
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 4: wonkys and context, but if you look at what Nicole

802
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 4: Jokic has done when match up with Bam Autebayo, I'm

803
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 4: not kidding you. These are his numbers per forty two

804
00:38:56,600 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 4: minutes of play. Jokic's average, I'm not kidding. Triple check

805
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 4: this math he's averaged fifty points in twenty five assists

806
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:06,439
Speaker 4: per forty two minutes of matchup time.

807
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:08,959
Speaker 3: Okay, even if you're.

808
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 1: Like this, that's ridicous.

809
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 3: You're right, that's you're not going to average fifty twenty five.

810
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 4: My point, though, he just got done moving through Anthony Davis.

811
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 4: Like Water and Bam is smaller, they can't handle this

812
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 4: matchup and Dever's got a lot of advantages here. Plus,

813
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 4: the home court has been great for Denver where they're

814
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 4: undefeated and been great all season. We taught, we've talked

815
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 4: a lot of the rest, and the difference is here.

816
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 4: Home teams with more rest in game one of the

817
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 4: finals are seven and two straight up and against the spread.

818
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 4: Road dogs off of a game.

819
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 1: Seven ten in these playoffs two thousand and three.

820
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 4: Since two thousand and three in the playoffs, road dogs

821
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 4: off a game seven and since two thousand and three

822
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 4: are eleven and twenty five straight up, seventeen and nineteen

823
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 4: against the spread. If you get past the semifinals, if

824
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 4: you get in conference finals or finals, it's five and

825
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 4: fourteen straight up, nine to ten against the spread. And

826
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 4: this is what we call the Raheem Palmer trend from

827
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 4: our former colleague at Action Network now with the Ringer.

828
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 4: With the Celtics lost the Heat. Teams that win a

829
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 4: Game seven are now thirty six and fifty in the

830
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 4: following series all together since nineteen eighty eight.

831
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 3: For the series.

832
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 4: It takes it out of you. We just do not

833
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 4: see these teams come back. Denver's a if the Heat.

834
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 4: If you think the Heat are gonna shoot better than

835
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 4: forty three percent, which is what they shot versus Boston,

836
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 4: and they shot forty five percent from three versus the Bucks.

837
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 4: If you think they're gonna do that again, you should

838
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 4: bet Miami plus two and a half. If you do

839
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 4: not think that they will do that, you need to

840
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 4: be on the Nuggets here. I can't give out any

841
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 4: other analysis. They're the better team with the best player,

842
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 4: with a matchup advantage and home court versus a team

843
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 4: off game seven if we take out if we take

844
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 4: the names off the jerseys. I said this before that

845
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 4: that Nuggets series versus the Lakers when I took the Nuggets.

846
00:40:56,800 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 4: You take the names off the jerseys on one team

847
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 4: is as matchup advantages here, I'll say Nuggets mins one

848
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 4: and a half. But I'm just gonna tell you if

849
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 4: Simon's right and the public comes in on Miami, I'm

850
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:10,839
Speaker 4: gonna be on Nuggets mis two and a half as well.

851
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:16,439
Speaker 1: All right, so we like Jimmy Butler assists we're thinking

852
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 1: about bam Adebio points over on both of those player props.

853
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: Simon and Matt both like the Nuggets minus one and

854
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 1: a half. I probably like that too. I'm just emotionally

855
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 1: not ready to commit because I'm such a huge fan

856
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 1: of the Heat, the Heat culture pat Riley, Eric Spostra,

857
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler, like, I love watching Jimmy Butler play. I

858
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,919
Speaker 1: just the way the Heat were able to come back

859
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 1: from ten down in that Game six in the final

860
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 1: three minutes, and the way the Celtics were not able

861
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 1: to make it a game in Game seven is the

862
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 1: epitome to me of how those coaches and how those

863
00:41:56,160 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 1: players handle their business. Let me throw out one long

864
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 1: shot MVP who is my favorite memed player on TikTok,

865
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:14,840
Speaker 1: who never passes the ball, Michael Porter Junior one hundred

866
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 1: to one, because if he goes crazy, he's got a

867
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 1: great stroke, a great stroke. If he goes crazy, he

868
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 1: could he could dominated a couple of games.

869
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 4: I think playing MPJ overs on threes is a good

870
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 4: call here. I was looking at the size of the heat.

871
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 4: Caleb Martin six ' five high. Smith is six ' five.

872
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 4: They have almost no dudes over six five. You know

873
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 4: who's also six five, Austin Reeves.

874
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 3: You know what I have him in?

875
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 4: Austin Reeves a mashup on MPJ. He tread him like

876
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 4: a ball rack. He just shot over him. The problem

877
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 4: I think you're gonna find the chat is like historically

878
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 4: and we I think last night's game is a perfect

879
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 4: example of this. What more does Caleb Martin have to

880
00:42:56,320 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 4: do to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP? But he didn't

881
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 4: like the best players with the both points win these awards.

882
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 4: So as much as I love the idea of an

883
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 4: MPG or a Jamal Murray or an Aaron Gordon or

884
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 4: a Caleb Martin winning Finals MVP because it would be

885
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 4: such a cool story, it's not what happens these The

886
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 4: people that vote on it know who are the most

887
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 4: integral pieces to these teams. If MPJ has a huge

888
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 4: scoring series, guess how he's getting buckets off of Jokic passes,

889
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 4: which is only gonna make Yokic look better. So I

890
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 4: don't think we can get there on MVP, but I

891
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:32,319
Speaker 4: will say I like where your head's at in terms

892
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 4: of MPJ having a big series. He's gonna have a

893
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 4: lot of scoring and rebounding opportunities against a smaller heat squad.

894
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 1: Do you feel like Bruce Brown has the prettiest finger

895
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 1: roll since George Griffin?

896
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:45,880
Speaker 3: You know what uh to?

897
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 4: Because you guys are such a football show. I've started

898
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 4: every time that he his entire offense in the NBA Playoffs,

899
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 4: he gets the ball off of a stop and just

900
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 4: runs straight line to the other end to get that

901
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 4: finger roll. I've started calling it full back dive because

902
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 4: there's nothing complicated about it. The teams absolutely know it's coming.

903
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 4: It's goal line formation. They're absolutely gonna run this full

904
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 4: back and it's just every single time he's diving straight

905
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 4: at you and no team is. Every team is still

906
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 4: confused in transition, like I don't know, is it play action? No,

907
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 4: you idiot, They're definitely running full back dive every single time.

908
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 4: With Bruce Brown, it's been amazing. He's been such a joy.

909
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,760
Speaker 4: He's been the third best Denver nugget throughout the NBA Playoffs.

910
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 1: He's awesome. To watch Simon, you got anything anything we

911
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 1: want to ask before I let Matt go, No, I just.

912
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 2: Would harp on what he talked about in Game sevens.

913
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 2: I mean, he made a great call the last time

914
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 2: we had him on about what happened. Boston played the

915
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 2: six Ers in the game seven and then they went

916
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 2: home and hosted the Heat at home. In that first game,

917
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 2: the Heat beat him right at they beat him on

918
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 2: the road. So you doing the same spot here, Yeah,

919
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:56,280
Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell just sent it to us. They played Thursday,

920
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 2: so I don't know why. In my mind, I thought

921
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 2: they didn't play until Sunday. Prety quick turnaround, right, they played?

922
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 2: They played Monday night. Now they flew to Denver or

923
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 2: let their bodies get used to the what it is

924
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 2: the altitude in Denver. That's a lot. I mean to me,

925
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 2: the Heat and the Celtic both look cooked at the

926
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 2: end of the like in the third quarter, both those

927
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 2: teams seem like they were dragon. That's a lot to

928
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 2: ask the team, this team to turn around now go

929
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:22,319
Speaker 2: play a Denver team that's just been resting. So I'm

930
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 2: kind of feeling even better now about my bet on

931
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 2: Denver minus one and a half. It just feels like

932
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 2: the Heat aren't in the same spot they were against

933
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 2: Boston team, but they kind of had that rest advantage.

934
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 2: It's flipped other way here. Denver's got the rest advantage

935
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:37,280
Speaker 2: and they are the best team at home this season. People,

936
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 2: They're it's not even close either. They have by far

937
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 2: the best record at home. I think the only time

938
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 2: they lost ray It was that Maverick's game like three

939
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 2: months ago. I could be wrong, Man Moore, but I

940
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 2: just I feel like they haven't lost at home in months.

941
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 2: So to me, Denver at home game one. It's a

942
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 2: big spread, but I'll most likely beyond the minus eight

943
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 2: and I'm on them for the series. So I am

944
00:45:58,040 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 2: clearly all in on Denver to take this.

945
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 1: One reminder, the Final Star June first, eight thirty on

946
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 1: ABC A thirty Eastern. I want to wholeheartedly thank whoever's

947
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: decision it was the NBA TNTABC to be starting all

948
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 1: of these conference title games and NBA title games at

949
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 1: eight thirty it is. It is a game changer for

950
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Speaker 1: me last night to be able to go to bed

951
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:34,359
Speaker 1: by ten forty five. It's so healthy. I cannot tell

952
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 1: you how much more enjoyable it is for me to

953
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 1: be able to watch every single game. Reminder of the

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961
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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler. This has been the Favorites The podcast part

962
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 1: of the Action Network format more. You can listen to

963
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 1: him on Buckets the podcast. You can read his stuff

964
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app or at actionnetwork dot com.

965
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,360
Speaker 1: For my bff, my companion Mike and Padre and my

966
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:27,839
Speaker 1: co host Simon Hunter. For a producer Matt Mitchell, I

967
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. Download the podcast from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts,

968
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:36,400
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971
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:56,759
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972
00:47:57,200 --> 00:48:00,000
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